JUMP RACING

FOR PROFIT
by Peter May
ISBN: 0-900611-995
Raceform Ltd.,
Compton, Newbry, !er"#$%re, RG&' (NL.

) Peter May *++(
Edited: Graham Wheldon
1
2
AC,NO-L./G.M.NT0
Many thanks to Sara o!es" Mike #in$ham" %a&id 'ossiter and
'i$hard (o!ther )or their hel*)+l $omments and ideas,
-+.lished: 'a$e)orm (td," /om*ton" Ne!.+ry"
Berkshire" 'G20 6N(,
-rinted .y: Greenshires -rint (td," 0etterin1" Northants,
2
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION 1
PART I - BACKGROUND DATA +
-ro)ita.ility ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 15
+rdle 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 13
/hases ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 20
National +nt #lat 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 22
S+mmary ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 24
PART II - SELECTION METHODS FOR
JUMP RACING &1
'e$ent #orm and Beaten #a&o+rites,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 23
Wei1ht 5nalysis ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 21
#ront '+nners ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 29
Sires ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 43
6he 6ime #a$tor ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 51
%e&elo*in1 -ro)ita.le Sele$tion Methods ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53
Conc2d%n3 Remar"# ..................................................... (&
4
LIST OF TABLES
6a.le 1: 5&era1e Startin1 -ri$e o) Winners .y N+m.er
o) '+nners: 5ll Grades o) National +nt
and #lat 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 12
6a.le 2: -er$enta1e o) Winnin1 #a&o+rites .y N+m.er o)
'+nners: 5ll Grades o) National +nt and
#lat 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 15
6a.le 2: 5&era1e 'et+rn .y Startin1 -ri$e ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 16
6a.le 4: Winners to '+nners Strike 'ate and 5&era1e
'et+rn )or +rdle 'a$es: 51e 'an1e .y
'a$e /ate1ory ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 19
6a.le 5: 5nalysis o) /hases .y N+m.er o) '+nners
Within 'a$e /ate1ory ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 21
6a.le 6: 5&era1e 'et+rn and Strike 'ate .y %istan$e Beaten
(ast 6ime: 5ll Grades o) National +nt 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,, 27
6a.le 3: 5&era1e 'et+rn .y %istan$e Beaten and Startin1
-ri$e (ast 6ime: No&i$es8 +rdle 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 29
6a.le 7: Winners to '+nners Strike 'ate .y Wei1ht
/arried: 5ll National +nt andi$a* 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 22
6a.le 9: Winners to '+nners Strike 'ate .y Goin1:
5ll National +nt andi$a* 'a$es ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 24
6a.le 10: E))e$t o) Wei1ht /arried .y /o+rse ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 26
6a.le 11: 5nalysis o) #ront '+nners .y Goin1 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 42
6a.le 12: 5nalysis o) #ront '+nners .y 'a$e %istan$e ,,,,,,,,,,,, 42
6a.le 12: 5&era1e 'et+rn and Strike 'ate )or
Probable Front Runners .y 'a$e$o+rse ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 44
6a.le 14: 5&era1e 'et+rn and Strike 'ate o) -ro1eny8s
'a$e -er)orman$es .y Goin1 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 47
6a.le 15: 5&era1e 'et+rn and Strike 'ate o) -ro1eny8s
'a$e -er)orman$es .y 'a$e 9%istan$e ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 49
6a.le 16: 5&era1e 'et+rn and Strike 'ate o) -ro1eny8s
'a$e -er)orman$es .y /o+rse %ire$tion ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 50
6a.le 13: /al$+lation o) Goin1 5llo!an$e ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 52
6a.le 17: Strike 'ate and 5&era1e 'et+rn )or Good 6ime
-er)ormers on 6heir Ne:t '+n ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 54
6a.le 19: Strike 'ate and 5&era1e 'et+rn )or Good 6ime
-er)ormers on 6heir Ne:t '+n .y 'a$e Grade ,,,,,,,,,, 56
5
INTRODUCTION
6he $+rsor )li$kered on the $om*+ter s$reen" and the ma$hine
*osed the no! )amiliar ;+estion: <Print Results?8, I res*onded .y
*ressin1 the y key and the *rinter $li$ked into a$tion, 5 )e!
moments later I !as lookin1 at my )irst *ro)ita.le .ettin1 system,
It !as =+ne 1976 and I had re$ently de$ided to a.andon my
attem*t to )ind a !innin1 )orm+la )or the $asino 1ame Bla$k>a$k
!hi$h did not in&ol&e $ard-$o+ntin1" and d+rin1 the *ast t!o
!eeks I had entered the res+lts o) one season8s no&i$es8 $hase
ra$es into the $om*+ter, istori$ally the ma$hine had only e&er
analysed a1ri$+lt+ral data ?a*art )rom many tho+sands o)
Bla$k>a$k sim+lations@ .+t no! it !as )a$ed !ith an entirely
di))erent task,
6he data !hi$h had .een e:tra$ted )rom the )orm.ook 1reatly
sim*li)ied the $om*le:ity o) the ra$e" !ith only the month" n+m.er
o) r+nners in the ra$e" !here the )a&o+rite and se$ond )a&o+rite
)inished on their latest starts" the *osition o) the )a&o+rite and
se$ond )a&o+rite in this ra$e" and the startin1 *ri$es o) the t!o
horses entered, 6hree .ettin1 &aria.les !ere added a+tomati$ally:
ret+rn )rom the )a&o+rite .a$ked to !in" se$ond )a&o+rite to !in
and se$ond )a&o+rite ea$h !ay, 6he aim !as to )ind a
$om.ination o) in*+ts !hi$h res+lted in a *ositi&e ret+rn )or one"
or all" o) the .ettin1 &aria.les,
5t )irst 1lan$e the system a**eared &ery *ro)ita.le, It hi1hli1hted
!ell o&er one h+ndred .ets *er year and *rod+$ed an a&era1e
*ro)it o) o&er 20* *er A1 staked, So )+rther testin1 !as tho+1ht
+nne$essary, Mistake n+m.er one, Instead" a more im*ortant
iss+e needed to .e addressed: ho! m+$h money $o+ld I e:*e$t to
!inB 5 $om*+ter sim+lation !as de&ised to ans!er this ;+estion
and it *redi$ted a retirement
6
date )or me o) 1994, 5$$ordin1 to the $om*+ter" .y 1994 I !o+ld
ha&e amassed s+))i$ient money to allo! me to lea&e !ork and li&e
$om)orta.ly )rom the !innin1s *rod+$ed .y the system, 6he
sim+lation !as .ased on an initial stake o) A10 ?)rom a .ank o)
A200@ and !o+ld rise to a )i1+re e:$eedin1 A1000 .y 1994, B+t
ei1ht years seemed a lon1 time to .e tied to the o))i$e" I !anted to
lea&e earlier, 5 sim*le sol+tion *resented itsel) - in$rease the
initial stake, My normal .et siCe !as .et!een A25 and A50" .+t I
!o+ld *la$e A100 on the system .ets, Mistake n+m.er t!o,
I had ne&er anti$i*ated the start o) a ne! ra$in1 season !ith s+$h
o*timism, 5)ter !hat seemed an intermina.le !ait" my )irst
.ettin1 o**ort+nity )inally arose on Sat+rday" 5+1+st 2nd at
Ne!ton 5..ot, 6he horse: 0arnatak, 6he *ri$e: 12D7, 6he
res+lt: a $om)orta.le s+$$ess, 6he $on$l+sion: easy money,
En the )ollo!in1 6h+rsday I *la$ed my se$ond .et" and $olle$ted
)rom my se$ond !inner ?*ri$e 5D4@, 5 )antasti$ start" and no! I
really .elie&ed that I had )o+nd a !innin1 )orm+la, 6he third .et
lost, So did the )o+rth, 5nd the )i)th, 6he si:th" (ord (a+ren$e"
$r+ised into the lead at the )o+rteenth" .+t )ell at the ne:t" the
*en+ltimate )en$e, E.&io+sly I had e:*e$ted a )e! losers" a ratio
o) one !inner to one loser in )a$t, B+t )o+r $onse$+ti&e losers
$ame as ;+ite a sho$k" and *+t me into the red, So )or the ne:t
.et" St /olme at /artmel" I de$ided to hal&e the stake, Mistake
n+m.er three, St /olme !on easily at e&ens,
6he St /olme ra$e had ta+1ht me a &al+a.le lessonF .a$k to A100
*er .et, 6he ne:t .et !ent do!n and I had lost o&er A220 !ithin
three !eeks" s+.stantially more than I !as +sed to losin1, I
there)ore de$ided to *lay a little more carefully in the )+t+re, 5)ter
a 1reat deal o) )orm analysis I de$ided to i1nore the ne:t
re$ommendation $om*letely, It !on at 7D12, 5nother hal) stake
on .et 10 !hi$h !on at 11D4, 5t this *oint I
3
!as o&er A100 do!n ?a)ter ta:@" .+t had I ke*t to the system8s
1+idelines and ?le&el@ stakin1 *lan" I !o+ld ha&e .een in *ro)it .y
A124,
6his *attern $ontin+ed thro+1ho+t the remainder o) the season" and
.y the )ollo!in1 s+mmer I had lost money, By sti$kin1 to the
r+les o) the system and stakin1 *lan" ho!e&er" I !o+ld ha&e made
a *ro)it o) almost A2000" a)ter ta:" a )a$t !hi$h only ser&ed to
dee*en my disa**ointment,
I ha&e re$o+nted this se;+en$e o) e&ents to ill+strate ho! sim*le it
is to lose money .a$kin1 ra$ehorses" e&en !ith a winning )orm+la,
6he three $r+$ial errors I made are easy to s*ot in retros*e$t,
#+rther testin1 o) the system !o+ld ha&e in$reased my $on)iden$e
in its a.ility to ret+rn a *ro)it" and may ha&e hi1hli1hted !ays to
red+$e the likelihood o) lon1 losin1 r+ns, In$reasin1 the stake !ay
.eyond my normal .et *+t additional strain on the !hole *ro$ess,
5 lon1 losin1 r+n at hal) the +s+al stake is easier to handle than at
t!i$e the normal stake, 6he third mistake is +n)or1i&a.le, Gsin1
my o!n >+d1ement to determine !hether I )ollo!ed the system8s
ad&i$e only ser&es to introd+$e an additional .ias into the
*ro$ed+re" e))e$ti&ely makin1 the system red+ndant,
#or the ne:t si: years I mana1ed to r+n the system *ro*erly" and it
*rod+$ed a reasona.le *ro)it ea$h season, o!e&er" the a&era1e
ret+rn 1rad+ally de$reased d+e to the .ookmakers8 a!areness o)
the !eakness the system !as e:*loitin1" and .y 1995 it !as no
lon1er *ro)ita.le, o!e&er" I ha&e re*la$ed the a**roa$h !ith
many other e;+ally *ro)ita.le sele$tion methods !hi$h I detail in
the remainder o) this .ook,
In -art I some 1eneral iss+es $on$ernin1 the le&el o) *ro)ita.ility
o) National +nt ra$in1 in Great Britain are o+tlined as
.a$k1ro+nd data, 6he three main ra$e $ate1ories: h+rdles ra$es"
$hases and National +nt )lat ra$es are e:amined
7
indi&id+ally as !ell as a1e and ra$e siCe *ro)iles, Se&eral
*ro)ita.le sele$tion methods are *resented in -art II, 6hese
a**roa$hes in$l+de methods .ased on .eaten )a&o+rites" r+nnin1
styles" and the +se o) ra$e times, Ether iss+es $o&ered in$l+de the
e))e$t o) !ei1ht $arried in handi$a* ra$es and in)ormation !hi$h
$an .e 1leaned )rom an e:amination o) the sire8s re$ord, 6he
se$tion $on$l+des !ith a .rie) s+mmary o) the key *oints o) system
de&elo*ment,

Notat%on
6hro+1ho+t this te:t the )ollo!in1 notation !ill .e +sed to
ill+strate ret+rns )rom se&eral .ets: si: .ets !ith t!o !inners at
2D1 and 5D1 !o+ld .e s+mmarised as )ollo!s:
!et# -%n# 456 Retrn78
6 2 ?22,2@ 0,63
In the a.o&e e:am*le" the si: .ets *rod+$ed a ret+rn o) A4 to a A1
stake ?i,e, H2H5-1-1-1-1 I 4@" there)ore the a&era1e ret+rn *er .et
is 4 6 ?total ret+rn di&ided .y the n+m.er o) .ets@ I 0,63 ?or 63*
*er A1 staked@, It sho+ld .e noted that a ret+rn o) 0,09 !o+ld
sim*ly .e s+))i$ient to $o&er the $ost o) ta: ?at 9J@" anythin1 less
!o+ld res+lt in a loss )or o))-$o+rse .ettors, #inally" all .ets
re)erred to thro+1ho+t this .ook are !in sin1les +nless other!ise
stated,
9
PART I
!AC,GROUN/ /ATA
10
BACKGROUND DATA
6here are a**ro:imately 2"500 ra$es r+n +nder National +nt
r+les in Great Britain ea$h season" and this )i1+re e:$l+des the
many h+ndreds o) -oint to -oint e&ents !hi$h take *la$e
thro+1ho+t the $o+ntry, 5ltho+1h National +nt ra$in1 is
sometimes re)erred to as the winter game" the season no! r+ns
thro+1ho+t the year, 6he re;+irement )or the ra$in1 a+thorities to
1enerate in$ome at e&ery *ossi.le o**ort+nity" &ia .ettin1 le&y and
admission $har1es" has red+$ed the mid-s+mmer .reak )rom se&en
!eeks to >+st )o+r days,
%+rin1 the 1995D96 season 42 ra$e$o+rses sta1ed National +nt
ra$in1, 6he )i1+re !ill .e red+$ed .y one in 1996D93F Nottin1ham
ra$e$o+rse !ill only .e +sed )or #lat ra$in1, S+$h a lar1e n+m.er
o) $o+rses *rod+$es a !ide &ariation in $o+rse $on)i1+ration, #or
e:am*le" $onsider the t!o so+th %e&on $o+rses: Ne!ton 5..ot
and E:eter, 6he )ormer is a )lat" ti1ht" le)t-handed $o+rse s+itin1
the ty*e o) horse !hi$h *re)ers ra$in1 +* !ith the *a$e, In
$ontrast" E:eter ra$e$o+rse" lo$ated on the side o) aldon ill
o))ers an entirely di))erent $on)i1+ration: ri1ht-handed !ith a sti))
+*hill r+n-in o) 200 yards, 6his &ariation in $o+rses adds another
dimension
11
to ra$e analysis" re;+irin1 the *+nter to determine !hether hisDher
sele$tion !ill .e s+ited .y the tra$k in addition to the normal
$onsiderations o) )orm and )itness et$, 6his is es*e$ially
im*ortant )or )ront r+nners" a )eat+re !hi$h is dis$+ssed in detail
in -art II,
orses need to .e at least three years old .e)ore they $an ra$e
+nder National +nt r+les !ith the $areer o) a =+m*s ra$ehorse
tendin1 to last lon1er than that o) its #lat ra$in1 $o+nter*art,
Generally startin1 in no&i$es8 h+rdle ra$es" the National +nt
horse $an then *ro1ress thro+1h handi$a* h+rdle ra$es to no&i$es8
$hases and )inally handi$a* $hases, Nat+rally" this $areer *ath
takes se&eral seasons to $om*lete" and as s+$h the National +nt
horse ra$es more o)ten than the a&era1e #lat ra$in1 animal, 6his
is the main attra$tion )or many =+m*s ra$in1 s+**orters, Gnlike
#lat ra$in1" !here the &ery .est horses seldom ra$e .eyond their
three-year-old season" the National +nt $ham*ions ret+rn year
a)ter year to test their a.ility a1ainst the yo+n1er 1enerations,
Ima1ine the 1992 0in1 Geor1e KI and L+een EliCa.eth %iamond
Stakes at 5s$ot attra$tin1 the 3 year old Nash!an" in addition to
Genero+s" Salsa.il" Gser #riendly and the 1992 E*som %er.y
!inner" /ommander In /hie), L+ite a ra$eM 6his rel+$tan$e to
ra$e the .est #lat horses later in li)e is +nderstanda.le sin$e their
st+d &al+e !o+ld ra*idly diminish sho+ld the animal )ail to r+n +*
to its .est, When $om*arin1 the *otential *riCe money !hi$h
$o+ld .e !on to st+d &al+es" ra$in1 a $ham*ion #lat horse .eyond
its three-year-old season is &ery m+$h a lon1 odds on 1am.le,
o!e&er" this is no $om*ensation )or the #lat ra$in1 )an,
#ort+nately" tho+1h" s+$h $ontests o$$+r ;+ite )re;+ently in
National +nt ra$in1, 6ake" )or e:am*le" the 1995 0in1 Geor1e
KI 6ri*le*rint /hase" r+n at Sando!n d+e to the a.andonment o)
0em*ton, 6his ra$e )eat+red the 1995 /heltenham Gold /+*
!inner: Master EatsF the to* $haser in Ireland: Merry GaleF the
!inners o) the 0in1 Geor1e KI ra$e )or the *re&io+s t!o seasons:
Barton Bank and 5l1anF
12
and the )a&o+rite )or the 1996 /heltenham Gold /+*: Ene Man,
6he Racing Post des$ri.ed the ra$e as <a titani$ $ontest8, It is no
!onder that National +nt )ollo!ers .e$ome s+**orters o) the
horses as o**osed to >+st o.ser&ers o) ra$es,
6his tenden$y )or the National +nt horse to ra$e o&er more
seasons and in more ra$es means the ra$e analyst has a 1reater
&ol+me o) )orm !ith !hi$h to !ork, More )orm im*lies that the
*+nter sho+ld .e a.le to more a$$+rately e&al+ate the animal8s
likes and dislikes" s+$h as o*tim+m 1oin1 and ra$e distan$e,
/onse;+ently" determinin1 the horse most likely to !in a ra$e
should .e easier, o!e&er" this does not mean it is easier to make
money, 6he .ookmakers are also a.le to assess the $han$es o)
ea$h r+nner more *re$isely" and as a res+lt the *ri$es on o))er !ill
re)le$t these .etter in)ormed assessments, 6o ill+strate this *oint"
$onsider 6a.le 1, 6his ta.le sho!s the a&era1e *ri$e o) all
!inners in National +nt and #lat ra$es )or se&eral seasons
$o&erin1 a**ro:imately 27"000 ra$es in total:
Tab2e *9 A:era3e 0tart%n3 Pr%ce of -%nner# by Nmber of
Rnner#9 A22 Grade# of Nat%ona2 ;nt and F2at Race#
A:era3e 0tart%n3 Pr%ce of -%nner#
Rnner# Nat%ona2 ;nt F2at
2-4 2,05 2,01
5-9 4,24 4,53
10-15 6,51 6,95
16H 7,53 9,72
A22 1.*< (.'+
5*art )rom to 2-4 r+nner )ields" )or !hi$h the di))eren$e is
insi1ni)i$ant" the a&era1e *ri$e o) the !inner is less )or National
+nt ra$es than )or #lat ra$es, 6his re)le$ts the im*ro&ement in
the a$$+ra$y o) ra$e assessments, In other !ords there is less
+n$ertainty in National +nt ra$es,
12
#ort+nately" +n$ertainty still e:ists" and it is this +n$ertainty !hi$h
leads to the o**ort+nity to !in money, In many 1ames o) $han$e"
s+$h as ro+lette" di$e and the National (ottery" the +n$ertainty has
.een remo&ed, Whilst the o+t$ome o) any one s*in o) the ro+lette
!heel" roll o) the di$e" or dro* o) the lottery .all is +nkno!n
.e)ore the e&ent" the *ro.a.ility o) ea$h o+t$ome $an .e $om*+ted
e:a$tly, #or e:am*le" !ith an +n.iased di$e" the *ro.a.ility o) a
si: .ein1 thro!n on the ne:t roll is 1D6, 6his *ro.a.ility is
mathemati$ally de)ined and *ro&en, With horsera$in1" e&en the
reasona.ly !ell de)ined National +nt ra$in1" this *ro.a.ility
remains ine:a$t, It is this &ery )a$t !hi$h allo!s +s to *ro)it )rom
the s*ort" *ro&idin1 !e .et sensi.ly,
Some *eo*le )ind the a.o&e res+lt s+r*risin1, o! $an the
o+t$ome o) National +nt ra$es .e easier to *redi$t than the
res+lts o) #lat ra$es" a)ter all the horses ha&e the added *ro.lem o)
>+m*in1 )en$esB Ene ans!er to this ;+estion $on$erns the relati&e
le&els o) di))i$+lty asso$iated !ith the ra$es, In theory" the more
di))i$+lt the s*ort or 1ame o) skill" the more likely it is to .e
dominated .y the .est *layers, 6aken to an e:treme" an e&ent that
re;+ires no skill !hatsoe&er and hen$e de*ends *+rely on l+$k"
$o+ld .e !on .y any o) the $om*etitors, o!e&er" an e&ent o)
immense di))i$+lty !ill only .e !on .y those !ith the hi1hest
le&el o) skill, /hess" )or instan$e" is dominated .y a )e! to*
*layers, /learly" >+m*in1 17 )en$es in a three mile stee*le$hase is
more di))i$+lt than r+nnin1 o&er a strai1ht )i&e )+rlon1s" re;+irin1
the r+nners to *ossess an a$$e*ta.le le&el o) s*eed as !ell as
>+m*in1 )l+en$y, /onse;+ently" the more talented *arti$i*ants
sho+ld dominate, 6o ill+strate this *oint $onsider 6a.le 2, 6his
ta.le details the *er$enta1e o) !innin1 )a&o+rites )or National
+nt and #lat ra$in1:
14
Tab2e &9 Percenta3e of -%nn%n3 Fa:or%te# by Nmber of
Rnner#9 A22 Grade# of Nat%ona2 ;nt and F2at Race#
Percenta3e of -%nn%n3 Fa:or%te#
Rnner# Nat%ona2 ;nt F2at
2-4 51,5 54,4
5-9 23,2 26,2
10-15 22,2 23,7
16H 25,3 21,1
A22 <(.' <*.=
6he theory seems to hold +*" !ith the strike rate )or =+m*s ra$e
)a&o+rites" at 26,0J" si1ni)i$antly hi1her than )or #lat ra$e
)a&o+rites" at 21,7J, It is also interestin1 to note ho! the 1a*
.et!een the *airs o) *er$enta1es seems to !iden as the n+m.er o)
r+nners in$reases, 6his rein)or$es o+r theory sin$e ra$es !ith
more r+nners are" in 1eneral" harder to !in,
o!e&er" it is still di))i$+lt not to )eel an:io+s as o+r sele$tion
a**roa$hes ea$h h+rdle or )en$e" !ith this le&el o) an:iety seemin1
to in$rease in *ro*ortion to the siCe o) .et, So" !hat is the $han$e
o) o+r sele$tion )allin1B Based on an analysis o) a**ro:imately
77"000 ra$e *er)orman$es" the *ro*ortion o) )allers in all ty*es o)
National +nt ra$in1 is a.o+t 4,4J, 6his is s+r*risin1ly lo!"
im*lyin1 only 4 )allers e&ery 10 ra$es, 6he *ro*ortion )or
+nseated rider is e&en less at 2,4J" and only 0,2J o) r+nners are
.ro+1ht do!n, 6here)ore" in total" a**ro:imately 3J o) r+nners
)ail to $om*lete d+e to )allin1" +nseatin1 or .ein1 .ro+1ht do!n,
Prof%tab%2%ty
We ha&e esta.lished that National +nt ra$in1 is more relia.le
than #lat ra$in1 and that !e sho+ld not !orry +nd+ly a.o+t o+r
horse )allin1" .+t to !hat de1ree are these )a$ts re)le$ted in the
*ri$es o))ered .y the .ookmakersB 6he )ollo!in1 ta.le
15
*resents the a&era1e ret+rn *er A1 staked )or almost 77"000 ra$e
*er)orman$es o&er =+m*s:
Tab2e <9 A:era3e Retrn by 0tart%n3 Pr%ce
0tart%n3 A:era3e
Pr%ce -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78*
Edds En 1200 ?53,2@ 2097 -0,03
E&ens-2D1 2030 ?25,3@ 5391 -0,09
75D40-5D1 2219 ?20,1@ 16529 -0,10
11D2-10D1 1767 ?10,0@ 17646 -0,15
11D1-20D1 365 ?2,9@ 19512 -0,29
22D1-40D1 192 ?1,5@ 12044 -0,56
50D1H 55 ?0,5@ 12023 -0,34
Tota2 +>?' 4*'.=6 =?((? @'.<<
#rom 6a.le 2 !e $an see that .y sele$tin1 horses at random in
National +nt ra$es !e $o+ld e:*e$t to lose a**ro:imately 22*
*er A1 staked, 6his is the res+lt o) the .ookmakers8 *ri$in1
*oli$y, 6he a&era1e loss )or #lat ra$in1 is a**ro:imately 20* *er
A1 staked ?see Flat Racing For Profit" *+.lished .y 'a$e)orm@,
5ltho+1h this loss o) 22* *er A1 staked is e:tremely hi1h in
relation to many $asino 1ames" it $om*ares )a&o+ra.ly !ith the
National (ottery ?50* *er A1@ and )oot.all *ools .ettin1 at 30*
*er A1, -remi+m Bonds" on the other hand" o))er a m+$h sa)er .et
!ith an a&era1e 1ain o) 5* *er A1 staked and no risk atta$hed,
En the *ositi&e side" 6a.le 2 rein)or$es the &ie! that National
+nt ra$in1 is *redi$ta.le, 6his is ill+strated .y the hi1h
$orrelation .et!een the odds on o))er and the strike rate, 5s the
!inners to r+nners strike rate in$reases" the odds de$rease, I) the
o+t$ome o) the ra$es !ere not *redi$ta.le" .y
16
.ookmakers and *+nters alike" s+$h a stron1 relationshi* !o+ld
not .e a**arent,
It is interestin1 to note )rom 6a.le 2 that the a&era1e ret+rn )or the
hi1her *ri$ed horses is *oorer than )or the shorter *ri$ed animals,
6his sim*ly re)le$ts the 1reater de1ree o) +nder *ri$in1 asso$iated
!ith these r+nners, In other !ords" in order to a$$+rately mirror
the tr+e *ro.a.ility o) s+$$ess" most 22D1 shots sho+ld really .e
*ri$ed at 50D1 or 1reater, 5s the *ri$e de$reases the dis$re*an$y
.et!een the fair *ri$e and startin1 *ri$e diminishes, 6here)ore"
restri$tin1 o+r random sele$tion *ro$ess to horses startin1 at 10D1
or less red+$es the loss to >+st 10N* *er A1 staked, Whilst a 25D1
shot may look an attra$ti&e .ettin1 o*tion" these lon1er *ri$ed
horses tend" in 1eneral" to o))er *oor &al+e $om*ared to the shorter
*ri$ed animals,
;rd2e Race#
+rdle ra$es $onstit+te the ma>ority o) all National +nt ra$es"
54J in )a$t, Broadly s*eakin1" these ra$es are $ontested .y e:-
#lat ra$e horses" and National +nt .red animals )or !hom
h+rdlin1 is merely a ste**in1 stone to stee*le$hasin1, +rdle
ra$es $an .e $on&eniently $ate1orised into )o+r 1ro+*s: conditions
races" novices races" other non-handicap ra$es and handicaps,
/onditions ra$es are non-handi$a* e&ents !hi$h in$l+de the .est
h+rdle ra$es sta1ed ea$h year" s+$h as the /ham*ion +rdle and
Stayers8 +rdle, In addition to the 1raded ra$es" $onditions e&ents
in$l+de $ontests )or )o+r year old se$ond season h+rdlers as !ell as
trials )or the $ham*ionshi* ra$es, No&i$es8 h+rdle ra$es !ere"
histori$ally" )or horses !hi$h had not !on a h+rdle ra$e *rior to
the $+rrent season, o!e&er" d+e to the introd+$tion o) s+mmer
ra$in1 this $ondition !as re&ised to not ha&in1 !on a h+rdle ra$e
*rior to the 1st May, /onse;+ently" +nder the ne! $onditions"
13
horses $o+ld ha&e !on a h+rdle ra$e in the *re&io+s season and
still ;+ali)y )or no&i$es8 e&ents in the $+rrent season, 6he
$ate1ory other non-handi$a* ra$es re)ers to the remainin1 ra$es )or
!hi$h horses are not allotted !ei1hts .y the British orsera$in1
Board8s ?BB@ handi$a**ers, 6here)ore" this $ate1ory in$l+des"
amon1st others" sellin1" maiden and $laimin1 ra$es, andi$a*
ra$es are !ei1ht ad>+sted e&ents, En$e ;+ali)ied )or a handi$a*
the BB<s team o) handi$a**ers rate the *er)orman$es o) the
animal and e&al+ate its handi$a* mark, 6his mark !ill $han1e as
the season *ro1resses and the horse r+ns in more ra$es, 6he
handi$a* mark determines the !ei1ht the horse is set to $arry
relati&e to the other r+nners in the ra$e, 6he aim o) the !ei1ht
ad>+stment is to *rod+$e more $om*etiti&e ra$es .y *enalisin1 the
.etter animals, andi$a* h+rdle ra$es ?!hi$h in$l+de no&i$es8
handi$a*s" sellin1 handi$a*s et$,@" and the +se o) !ei1ht to slo!
horses do!n" is dis$+ssed in more detail in -art II,
6he minim+m distan$e o) a h+rdle ra$e is t!o miles" !ith the
lon1est ra$e at a little o&er 2 miles 2 )+rlon1s, 5lmost 60J o) all
h+rdle ra$es are o&er a distan$e o) 16-17 )+rlon1s !ith the r+nners
e:*e$ted to >+m* .et!een 7 and 10 )li1hts o) h+rdles, (ess than
6NJ o) ra$es are o&er a distan$e e:$eedin1 2 miles" re;+irin1 the
horses to >+m* at least 12 )li1hts,
orses a1ed three years and +*!ards are ;+ali)ied )or h+rdle
ra$es, o!e&er" 44J o) all r+nners are a1ed .et!een )i&e and
se&en years, 6his seemin1ly lo! a&era1e a1e ran1e is sim*ly d+e
to a lar1e *ro*ortion o) h+rdlers *ro1ressin1 to stee*le$hasin1
a)ter one or t!o seasons o&er the smaller o.sta$les, 6he older
h+rdlers tend to .e animals !hi$h are not s+ited" either *hysi$ally
or mentally" to )en$es, 6a.le 4 sho!s the distri.+tion o) r+nners
.y a1e ran1e )or almost 3"000 ra$es:
17
Tab2e >9 -%nner# to Rnner# 0tr%"e Rate and A:era3e Retrn for
;rd2e Race#9 A3e Ran3e by Race Cate3ory
A3e Cond. No:. Ot$er ;cap. A22
4yr#.6 ;d2. ;d2. ;d2. ;d2. Race#
2 W 0 204 96 19 419
R 0 2261 1012 90 4262
Ret. - -0,41 -0,24 H0,29 -0,26
4 W 13 315 203 420 1259
R 145 3205 2219 2443 12216
Ret. H0,17 -0,42 -0,47 -0,26 -0,27
5,,3 W 64 1232 224 1574 2244
R 244 12797 2656 12999 20793
Ret. -0,27 -0,44 -0,41 -0,16 -0,22
7,,10 W 54 202 169 1127 1662
R 297 4492 1971 12110 19972
Ret. -0,22 -0,60 -0,46 -0,22 -0,40
11,,12 W 1 2 12 23 52
R 20 45 93 770 1042
Ret. H0,30 -0,71 H0,16 -0,62 -0,54
12H W 1 2 2 3 12
R 3 11 22 136 216
Ret. -0,26 H0,72 -0,62 -0,32 -0,62
Tota2 W *<? &1+? =*& <&'1 (?1*
R +*> &+'*< +'=? <'?'& (+?*(
Ret. @'.&' @'.>( @'.>& @'.&( @'.<(
W indi$ates the n+m.er o) !inners" R the n+m.er o) r+nners" and Ret
the a&era1e ret+rn *er A1 staked,
Ene o) the most si1ni)i$ant )eat+res re&ealed .y 6a.le 4 is the
de$line in a&era1e ret+rn )or the older horses, /onsider" )or
instan$e" those h+rdlers a1ed 11 years and older: 1257 ra$e
*er)orman$es res+lted in only 66 !ins" a strike rate o) 5,2J,
19
6his $om*ares to a strike rate o) 9,7J )or their yo+n1er
o**onents, o!e&er" this *oorer strike rate is not re)le$ted in
hi1her *ri$es o))ered .y the .ookmakers" hen$e the a.ysmal ret+rn
*er .et, S*e$i)i$ally" a loss o) 55* *er A1 staked )or the older
animals $om*ared to a loss o) 26* *er A1 staked )or the yo+n1er
r+nners, 6his ill+strates the de1ree o) *oor &al+e 1enerally o))ered
a.o+t older horses,
5nother interestin1 )eat+re is the *ro)ita.le ret+rn )rom .a$kin1 all
r+nners a1ed three years takin1 *art in handi$a* h+rdle ra$es, 6he
a&era1e ret+rn o) 29* *er A1 staked re)le$ts ho! m+$h this ty*e o)
r+nner is +nder rated" .y the *+nters and .ookmakers" res+ltin1 in
odds !hi$h are" in )a$t" 1enero+s, 6hree-year-old h+rdlers o)ten
!ill .e $onsidered too !eak and ine:*erien$ed $om*ared !ith
their older ri&als, /learly" this >+d1ement is mis*la$ed" !hi$h is
an error !e $an e:*loit,
With an a&era1e loss o) 46* *er A1 staked" no&i$es8 h+rdle ra$es
!o+ld seem to o))er the *oorest .ettin1 medi+m, o!e&er" this
loss $an .e e:*lained" in *art" .y a hi1her than a&era1e n+m.er o)
r+nners *er ra$e" and more hi1h *ri$ed r+nners than other ty*es o)
h+rdle ra$e, In )a$t" no&i$es8 h+rdle ra$es are" in 1eneral" easier to
assess !ith a !inners to r+nners strike rate )or )a&o+rites o) 44J
o&er the *ast )o+r seasons" $om*ared to an a&era1e o) 23J )or all
h+rdle ra$es )or the same *eriod, In terms o) *ro)it" .a$kin1 all
no&i$es8 h+rdle ra$e )a&o+rites sin$e the 1992D92 season !o+ld
ha&e res+lted in a loss o) only 4* *er A1 staked,
C$a#e#
5ltho+1h h+rdle ra$in1 $an .e e:$itin1 at times" it is
stee*le$hasin1 !hi$h +s+ally *ro&ides the s*e$ta$le )or National
+nt ra$in1, I) yo+ are +ns+re a.o+t this statement"
20
$ast yo+r tho+1hts .a$k to the $losin1 sta1es o) the 1995 M+mm
Mellin1 /hase at 5intree, 6he three to* 2 mile $hasers" Kikin1
#la1shi*" %ee* Sensation and Martha8s Son" a**roa$hed the )inal
)en$e at )+ll ra$in1 s*eed and >+m*ed it in +nison .e)ore .attlin1
o+t the )inish !ith >+st a len1th se*aratin1 the three at the line,
6hat8s real horsera$in1,
/hases make +* a**ro:imately 42J o) all National +nt ra$es
and ran1e in distan$e )rom 2 miles" re;+irin1 the horses to *ossess
s*eed and >+m*in1 )l+en$y" to the 4N miles o) the Grand National
!here the em*hasis is on stamina,
6o )a$ilitate meanin1)+l analyses" $hases ha&e .een .roken do!n
into )i&e $ate1ories, 6he )irst )o+r: conditions races" novices
races" other non-handicap ra$es and handicaps" are the same as
)or h+rdle ra$es !ith the same de)initions, 6he )i)th $ate1ory is
hunter $hases, 6hese e&ents are )or horses !hi$h ha&e .een
$lassi)ied as h+nters d+rin1 the h+ntin1 season and are restri$ted to
amate+r riders,
5n initial analysis o) $hases .y ra$e $ate1ory and n+m.er o)
r+nners re&eals se&eral interestin1 trends, /onsider 6a.le 5:
Tab2e 19 Ana2y#%# of C$a#e# by Nmber of Rnner#
-%t$%n Race Cate3ory
Nmber of Cond. No:. Ot$er ;cap. ;nter A22
Rnner# C$a#e C$a#e C$a#e C$a#e C$a#e Race#
2,,4 W 51 269 12 526 26 795
R 172 994 47 1792 129 2243
Ret. -0,03 -0,25 -0,15 -0,09 -0,20 -0,15
5,,3 W 54 661 45 1242 122 2126
R 212 4000 236 3235 711 12334
Ret. -0,22 -0,23 -0,29 -0,16 -0,22 -0,21
7,,12 W 16 627 57 772 226 1710
R 156 6007 541 7204 2157 13163
Ret. -0,26 -0,27 -0,25 -0,22 -0,42 -0,20
21
12,,16 W 4 122 19 144 96 275
R 60 1323 237 2016 1243 5427
Ret. -0,60 -0,46 -0,50 -0,21 -0,43 -0,41
13H W 0 12 9 41 20 72
R 0 215 130 712 402 1600
Ret. - -0,27 -0,54 -0,22 -0,64 -0,42
Tota2 W *&1 *(+& *>> &=<( 1** 1<'=
R ?** *&+1> *<*< &'>'* >=>? >'&&(
Ret. @'.&1 @'.<1 @'.<> @'.&' @'.>< @'.&=
W indi$ates the n+m.er o) !inners" R the n+m.er o) r+nners and Ret the a&era1e
ret+rn *er A1 staked,
/learly" as the n+m.er o) r+nners *er ra$e in$reases so does the
.ookmakers8 o&er-ro+nd, 6his is a trend !hi$h is $ontin+ed
thro+1h .oth $odes o) ra$in1" #lat and =+m*s" and as mentioned in
the *re&io+s se$tion" it a$$o+nts )or the *oor ret+rn )or no&i$es8
h+rdle ra$es, +nter $hases seem to o))er a &ery *oor a&era1e rate
o) ret+rn" !ith a loss o) 42* *er A1 staked" !hi$h is" in )a$t" !orse
than the National (ottery !hen the e))e$t o) ta: is added,
Gn+s+ally" this *oor ret+rn is maintained in the &ery small )ields,
#rom 6a.le 5 it $an .e seen that in )ields o) 2-4 r+nners the
a&era1e loss )or handi$a* $hases is 9* *er A1 staked" !hereas )or
h+nter $hases the )i1+re is 20* *er A1" a h+1e di))eren$e,
5 reason )or this *oor rate o) ret+rn $an .e )o+nd .y e:aminin1 the
*ri$e *ro)ile o) the h+nter $hase r+nners, 6hese ra$es +s+ally
)eat+re a lar1e *ro*ortion o) horses !ith &ery little $han$e o)
!innin1" *ro.a.ilities !hi$h are not a$$+rately re)le$ted .y the
odds on o))er ?i,e, lon1 shots still +nder *ri$ed" ill+strated .y
6a.le 2@, /onse;+ently" the .ookmakers8 o&er-ro+nd is in$reased,
o!e&er" the h+nter $hase $ate1ory has the hi1hest *ro*ortion o)
!innin1 )a&o+rites" at a little o&er 47J" $om*ared to 46J )or
no&i$es8 $hases and )i1+res in the mid 208s )or the other
$ate1ories, In )a$t" sim*ly .a$kin1 all h+nter $hase )a&o+rites o&er
the *ast
22
)e! seasons !o+ld ha&e ret+rned a *ro)it o) 3* *er A1 staked"
.e)ore ta:, 5ll other ra$e ty*es *rod+$ed a loss o) .et!een 2* and
22* *er A1 staked,
6he a&era1e a1e ran1e o) a $haser is 7 to 10 years old, 5s !ith
the h+rdlers" the older $hasers !in less )re;+ently than the yo+n1er
horses and this *oor strike rate is not re)le$ted in hi1her *ri$es
o))ered .y the .ookmakers, /hasers a1ed +* to 10 years old ha&e
a !inners to r+nners strike rate o) 14J and an a&era1e loss o) 25*
*er A1 staked, In $om*arison" the strike rate )or older horses" 11
years and +*!ards" is only 7J and the a&era1e ret+rn is a loss o)
44* *er A1 staked, /learly" the a1e o) the animal is a )a$tor !hi$h
sho+ld .e $are)+lly $onsidered .e)ore *la$in1 a .et,
Nat%ona2 ;nt F2at Race#
National +nt #lat ra$es are desi1ned to 1i&e National +nt .red
horses e:*erien$e o) ra$in1 .e)ore they attem*t h+rdles or )en$es,
6hese ra$es attra$t a hi1h .ookmakers8 o&er-ro+nd !ith a random
sele$tion *rod+$in1 an a&era1e loss o) 43* *er A1 staked o&er the
*ast )e! seasons, 6his le&el o) +nder *ri$in1 is d+e in *art to the
)a$t that a lar1e *ro*ortion o) the r+nners are +nkno!n ;+antities"
and the .ookmakers are not *re*ared to take any $han$es a.o+t
this ty*e o) horse, 6o ill+strate this *oint" .y sele$tin1 horses at
random in the 11D2-10D1 *ri$e .and )or all ty*e o) National +nt
ra$e !o+ld ret+rn a loss o) 15* *er A1 staked, #or National +nt
#lat ra$es this loss is an in$redi.le 20* *er A1 staked,
5s a res+lt o) s+$h *rohi.iti&e *ri$in1" identi)yin1 *ro)ita.le
.ettin1 strate1ies )or National +nt #lat ra$es is an e:tremely
di))i$+lt task,
22
0mmary
In this se$tion I ha&e tried to sho! the de1ree to !hi$h the odds
are sta$ked in )a&o+r o) the .ookmakers" and ho! the a&era1e rate
o) ret+rn &aries de*endin1 on the n+m.er o) r+nners in the ra$e"
the startin1 *ri$e" and a1e o) the horse, Whilst the startin1 *ri$e
*ro&ides a 1ood 1+ide to the $han$e o) s+$$ess there are instan$es
!here it se&erely +nder estimates the tr+e odds o) r+nners" most
nota.ly the older horses, We ha&e also seen one $ase" three year
old horses r+nnin1 in handi$a* h+rdle ra$es" !here the a&era1e
startin1 *ri$e e:$eeds a )air *ri$e *ro&idin1 a *ro)ita.le .ettin1
o**ort+nity,
In the )ollo!in1 se$tion" !e $on$entrate on de&elo*in1 sele$tion
methods !hi$h sho+ld res+lt in a *ositi&e ret+rn, We ha&e already
seen that on a&era1e the .ookmaker .ets to an o&er-ro+nd o) 22J
*er ra$e" and has at hisDher dis*osal all the in)ormation a&aila.le
to the 1eneral *+.li$, 6here)ore" +sin1 $on&entional methods )or
sele$tin1 horses ?i,e, $he$kin1 the s+ita.ility o) the 1oin1" ra$e
distan$e et$,@ is +nlikely to ret+rn a *ro)it, #or the o))-$o+rse
*+nter to make a lon1 term *ro)it .y e&al+atin1 ra$es in the
traditional !ay" either the .ookmaker needs to make an a**allin1
mistake or the *+nter needs to .e e:$e*tionally talented at
analysin1 ra$es, 6o *+t the le&el o) skill re;+ired into *ers*e$ti&e"
the to* *ro)essional 1am.lers only make 10* to 15* *er A1 staked,
/onse;+ently" the .est ro+te to a *ro)ita.le ret+rn is to ado*t an
+n$on&entional a**roa$h to ra$ehorse sele$tion and $onsider
in)ormation !hi$h is o)ten o&erlooked .y the .ookmaker" and
other *+nters, 6his ty*e o) a**roa$h to .ettin1 is e:amined in
-art II,
24
PART II
0.L.CTION M.T;O/0 FOR
JUMP RACING
25
SELECTION METHODS FOR
JUMP RACING
In this se$tion !e e:amine &ario+s )a$ets o) National +nt ra$in1
and de&elo* se&eral *ro)ita.le sele$tion methods, 6he se$tion
starts !ith an analysis o) re$ent )orm and the im*ortan$e o) the
animal8s startin1 *ri$e on its *re&io+s ra$e,
Recent Form and !eaten Fa:or%te#
'e$ent )orm is treated as one o) the most im*ortant as*e$ts o) ra$e
analysis, In almost e&ery .ook aimed at *ro&idin1 the reader !ith
methods )or *i$kin1 !inners there !ill .e a se$tion relatin1 to
re$ent )orm, Gs+ally the a+thor !ill s+11est that the *+nter
ens+res that hisDher sele$tion has <1ood re$ent )orm8 .e)ore
*la$in1 a .et, o!e&er" de)inin1 good or poor re$ent )orm is not
an easy task, 5 1+ide" tho+1h" $an .e 1leaned )rom $onsiderin1
the distan$e the horse !as .eaten on its latest r+n, 6a.le 6
ill+strates the relationshi* .et!een the $han$e o) s+$$ess and the
distan$e the horse !as .eaten on its latest r+n:
26
Tab2e (9 A:era3e Retrn and 0tr%"e Rate by /%#tance !eaten
La#t T%me9 A22 Grade# of Nat%ona2 ;nt Race#
/%#tance
A
!eaten A:era3e
La#t T%me -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78*
0 2030 ?25,5@ 7121 -0,12
0,01-2,0 515 ?20,6@ 2495 -0,16
2,01-5,0 673 ?17,3@ 2633 -0,15
5,01-10,0 756 ?16,2@ 5276 -0,16
10,01-20,0 1140 ?12,2@ 9220 -0,25
20,01H 1626 ?6,6@ 24599 -0,41
Not /om*lete 321 ?6,0@ 11931 -0,46
Gnra$ed
O
1755 ?7,4@ 22207 -0,23
Tota2 +>?' 4*'.=6 =?((? @'.<<
P
distan$e .eaten is 1i&en in horse len1ths,
O
+nra$ed this season
5s yo+ may e:*e$t" the a.o&e ta.le does not re&eal a *ro)ita.le
.ettin1 strate1y" ho!e&er it does *ro&ide some &al+a.le
in)ormation, 6he most interestin1 )eat+re o) 6a.le 6 is the de$line
in strike rate and a&era1e ret+rn as the distan$e .eaten in$reases,
In other !ords" the startin1 *ri$e does not re)le$t the lo!er
*ro.a.ility o) s+$$ess o) those horses !ell .eaten last time,
5 se$ond $om*onent o) re$ent )orm !hi$h sho+ld .e $onsidered is
the *ri$e the horse started )or its latest ra$e, We ha&e already seen
that the startin1 *ri$e o) a horse *ro&ides a 1ood 1+ide to its
$han$e o) s+$$ess ?see 6a.le 2@, 6his trend is maintained )or the
*ri$e the animal started on its latest r+n and is *arti$+larly
si1ni)i$ant )or no&i$es8 h+rdle ra$es, 6a.le 3 $om.ines startin1
*ri$e and distan$e .eaten last time )or almost 2"000 no&i$es8
h+rdle ra$es:
23
Tab2e ?9 A:era3e Retrn by /%#tance !eaten and 0tart%n3 Pr%ce
La#t T%me9 No:%ce#B ;rd2e Race#
/%#tance
A
0tart%n3 Pr%ce La#t T%me
!eaten Odd# .:en#@ =17>'@ **7&@ A22
La#t T%me On &7* 17* *'7* **7*C Pr%ce#
0 W 122 125 132 73 29 545
R 263 422 625 253 254 2025
Ret. -0,17 -0,01 -0,09 -0,20 -0,27 -0,12
0,01-2,0 W 16 44 52 23 21 161
R 56 121 225 196 135 332
Ret. -0,19 H0,22 -0,12 -0,52 -0,49 -0,25
2,01-5,0 W 10 26 53 52 43 202
R 25 120 272 255 210 1002
Ret. H0,02 -0,09 -0,25 -0,17 -0,29 -0,22
5,01-10,0 W 21 22 76 34 56 230
R 55 112 290 294 524 1476
Ret. H0,12 H0,25 -0,04 -0,20 -0,43 -0,20
10,01H W 14 56 145 131 291 633
R 31 235 1127 1719 3925 11217
Ret. -0,24 -0,02 -0,20 -0,25 -0,64 -0,54
Not W 7 12 22 26 29 123
/om*lete R 27 34 263 267 2571 2217
Ret -0,27 -0,26 -0,49 -0,04 -0,30 -0,60
Tota2 W *+* <'( 1>1 >>= >+< *+=<
R (*& **&1 &+*= <<=+ **??+ *+=&<
Ret. @'.*? C'.'< @'.&& @'.&= @'.(< @'.>(
W indi$ates the n+m.er o) !inners" R the n+m.er o) r+nners and Ret the a&era1e
ret+rn *er A1 staked,
A
distan$e .eaten is 1i&en in horse len1ths,
Se&eral interestin1 )eat+res are e:hi.ited in 6a.le 3, #irstly" the
a&era1e ret+rn remains reasona.ly $onstant )or horses .eaten +* to
10 len1ths .+t dro*s markedly to a loss o) 54* *er A1 staked )or
horses .eaten o&er 10 len1ths on their *re&io+s r+n" and to a loss
o) 60* )or those !hi$h )ailed to $om*lete last time, Se$ondly" )or
r+nners !hi$h started at odds a1ainst on their *re&io+s start there
is a steady de$line in the a&era1e ret+rn as this *ri$e in$reases,
5nd )or animals !hi$h started at o&er 10D1 most re$ently the
a&era1e ret+rn
27
dro*s to a &ery *oor loss o) 62* *er A1 staked, 6hese are $learly
horses to a&oid,
o!e&er" *ro)ita.le sele$tion methods are also a**earin1" nota.ly
horses .eaten on their last start .y less than 10 len1ths !hilst
startin1 at 2D1 or less, #rom 6a.le 3" !e $an see that this
a**roa$h !o+ld ha&e res+lted in 160 !inners )rom 500 ra$es" a
strike rate o) almost 22J !ith a ret+rn o) 12* *er A1 staked,
In -art I !e )o+nd that the hi1her *ri$ed horses 1enerally o))er
*oorer &al+e, 'emo&in1 the horses !hi$h started at 10D1 or hi1her
and a**lyin1 the restri$tions o+tlined a.o&e de$reases the n+m.er
o) .ets .y 30 to 420 at the e:*ense o) only one !inner, 6he strike
rate im*ro&es to 23J !ith a ret+rn o) 27* *er A1 staked,
6here)ore"
consider backing any horse starting at less than
!" in a novices hurdle race which# on its latest
start# was beaten no more than ! lengths at a
starting price of $" or less% e&pected profit $'p per
( staked.
6his sele$tion method in&ol&es a )air amo+nt o) sear$hin1 thro+1h
*ast histories" .+t )ort+nately it $an .e sim*li)ied .y restri$tin1 the
horses eli1i.le )or sele$tion to .eaten )a&o+rites, Both o) the trade
*a*ers indi$ate .eaten )a&o+rites in the ra$e $ard red+$in1 the
amo+nt o) sear$hin1 re;+ired, 6here)ore"
consider backing any horse starting at less than
!" in a novices hurdle race which# on its latest
start# was a beaten favourite finishing within !
lengths of the winner% e&pected profit $)p per (
staked.
29
6here is only a sli1ht di))eren$e in the e:*e$ted ret+rn and n+m.er
o) .ets )or these t!o sele$tion methods" and as mentioned earlier
the se$ond a**roa$h sho+ld .e easier to im*lement,
-e%3$t Ana2y#%#
In horsera$in1" =+m*s or #lat" the standard meas+re o) a.ility is
the o))i$ial ratin1" also kno!n as the handi$a* mark, Gltimately
all horses re$ei&e a handi$a* mark assi1ned .y a team o)
handi$a**ers em*loyed .y the BB" !hether they r+n in handi$a*
ra$es or not, 6he ratin1 is a $on&enient !ay o) e:*ressin1 the
s+*eriority o) one animal relati&e to another, #or e:am*le" a horse
rated 75 !o+ld .e $onsidered to *ossess more a.ility than an
animal rated 30, #or handi$a* ra$es" this ratin1 determines the
amo+nt o) !ei1ht ea$h horse !ill $arry, In the *re&io+s e:am*le"
the horse rated 75 !o+ld $arry 15 l.s, more !ei1ht than the horse
rated 30, It sho+ld .e noted that the handi$a* marks do not
determine the amount o) !ei1ht to .e $arried" >+st the !ei1ht one
horse !ill $arry relati&e to another, /onse;+ently" it !o+ld .e
*ossi.le )or these t!o horses to .e set to $arry 11-04 ?11 stone 4
l.s,@ and 10-02 in one ra$e" and 11-10 and 10-09 in another ra$e
on the same day, 6he a.sol+te !ei1ht $arried is determined .y the
BB ratin1 o) the hi1hest rated horse in the ra$e, In these t!o
hy*otheti$al ra$es" the to* rated horse in the )irst ra$e !o+ld .e
rated hi1her than the to* rated horse in the se$ond ra$e,
6his is an im*ortant distin$tion to make" and it is im*erati&e to
remem.er that a horse $arryin1 12-0" )or instan$e" is not
ne$essarily .adly handi$a**ed, (ike!ise" an animal set to $arry
10-0 is not 1+aranteed to .e !ell handi$a**ed, 6he !ei1ht $arried
.y a horse sim*ly re)le$ts the stren1th o) the
20
ra$e, =+st .e$a+se a handi$a**er is set to $arry 12-0 is no reason
to ass+me it $annot !in,
6here are o$$asions !hen r+nners in handi$a*s $arry more !ei1ht
than their o))i$ial ratin1 re;+ires, 6his $an ha**en !hen the
ratin1 re;+ires the animal to $arry a !ei1ht !hi$h is .elo! the
minim+m set )or the ra$e, 6he minim+m !ei1ht is normally 10-0
altho+1h it $an .e in$reased to 10-04 or 10-03 )or $ertain ra$es,
In s+$h $ases horses !hi$h are out of the handicap e))e$ti&ely
$arry o&er!ei1ht, #or e:am*le" i) the to* !ei1ht in a ra$e !as set
to $arry 11-10 and !as rated 120" a horse rated 70 sho+ld only
$arry 7-07 .+t !o+ld ha&e to $arry the minim+m !ei1ht" 10-0" an
o&er!ei1ht o) 20 l.s, 6hese horses are 1enerally $onsidered to .e
.adly handi$a**ed,
E))i$ial ratin1s ha&e most e))e$t in handi$a* ra$es, 6he aim o)
handi$a*s is to 1i&e all horses the same $han$e o) !innin1 .y
*enalisin1 the .etter animals .y 1i&in1 them more !ei1ht to $arry,
/onse;+ently" many 1am.lers do not )ind handi$a* ra$es a &ia.le
.ettin1 medi+m, #or instan$e" in the .ook *raddocks +omplete
,uide to -orse Race .election and *etting ?(on1man" 1972@"
-eter Braddo$k re$ommends that handi$a*s /must not be
considered for serious purposes of selection0. 6his is a rather
e:treme &ie!" altho+1h it did dis$o+ra1e me )rom .ettin1 in
handi$a*s )or many years,
o!e&er" in *etting For 1 2iving ?5es$+l+s -ress" 1992@" Ni$k
Mordin s+11ests that !ei1ht $arried sho+ld .e i1nored !hen
assessin1 )orm and *ro&ides e&iden$e )rom this" and the *re&io+s
$ent+ry" to s+**ort the $laim, 5t )irst I dismissed this idea
!itho+t a se$ond tho+1ht" ho!e&er" I am .e1innin1 to .elie&e that
it may ha&e some &alidity, We sho+ld .e a.le to test this theory
+sin1 inde*endent handi$a* ratin1s as *ro&ided .y or1anisations
s+$h as 6ime)orm and 'a$e)orm, I) Mordin8s $ontention is tr+e"
there sho+ld .e no di))eren$e .et!een the !inners to r+nners strike
rate )or the to* rated
21
sele$tions a)ter ad>+stin1 )or !ei1ht ?the +s+al a**roa$h@ and )or
the to* rated sele$tions !itho+t any !ei1ht ad>+stment, 5nalysin1
the ratin1s )rom an inde*endent so+r$e )or almost 700 handi$a*
ra$es *rod+$ed the )ollo!in1 res+lts:
Strike Rate For Wei1ht 5d>+sted: 24J
To Rate! Hor"e Wei1ht I1nored: 22J
6he minimal di))eren$e .et!een the t!o *er$enta1es s+**orts the
hy*othesis that !ei1ht $arried has no e))e$t, It also ;+estions the
&al+e o) hi1h *ri$ed ratin1s ser&i$es" es*e$ially sin$e the to*
!ei1ht in =+m*s handi$a* ra$es re1ardless o) its *osition in the
ratin1s" !ins on a&era1e 20J o) ra$es,
5s a )+rther $he$k !e $an look at the !inners to r+nners strike rate
)or all National +nt handi$a* r+nners .y !ei1ht $arried, 51ain"
i) !ei1ht has a si1ni)i$ant e))e$t" and the handi$a**ers are
reasona.ly a$$+rate in their assessments" this *ro)ile sho+ld .e
+ni)orm o&er the di))erent !ei1ht $ate1ories, En the other hand" i)
!ei1ht has only a minimal e))e$t" the .etter horses" $arryin1 hi1her
!ei1hts" sho+ld !in more o)ten, /onsider 6a.le 7 !hi$h
ill+strates the !inners to r+nners strike rate )or almost 6"000
handi$a* ra$es:
Tab2e =9 -%nner# to Rnner# 0tr%"e Rate by -e%3$t Carr%ed9
A22 Nat%ona2 ;nt ;and%cap Race#
-e%3$t
Carr%ed
A
-%nner# 456 Rnner#
12-01H 23 ?27,6@ 30
11-07,,12,00 1540 ?16,3@ 9217
11-00,,11-03 1246 ?12,6@ 9171
10-07,,10-12 1237 ?12,1@ 10594
10-00,,10-03 1526 ?9,1@ 16311
,,9-12 276 ?6,6@ 4206
A22 -e%3$t# 1+'< 4**.=6 1''='
A
!ei1ht $arried in$l+des $laims .y >o$keys and o&er!ei1ht,
22
/learly" the horses $arryin1 most !ei1ht !in more o)ten !hi$h
indi$ates that the handi$a**in1 *ro$ess is not res+ltin1 in total
+ni)ormity, So *erha*s Ni$k Mordin is $orre$t" and )or National
+nt ra$es at least" !e sho+ld not *la$e too m+$h em*hasis on the
e))e$t o) the amo+nt o) !ei1ht $arried !hen assessin1 the $han$es
o) horses, 5nd to .ase the assessment o) the r+nners8 a.ilities on
the o))i$ial ratin1s .e)ore ad>+stment )or !ei1ht,
5nother lon1 held .elie) is that horses )ind it harder to $arry
!ei1ht on so)t 1ro+nd, Braddo$k $omments: <it is more di))i$+lt
)or horses to $arry .i1 !ei1hts on so)t or hea&y 1ro+nd,
/on&ersely" !hen the 1ro+nd is )irm ,,, to* !ei1hts are more likely
to *re&ail,8 Mordin a1rees !ith this statement" and it seems to
*ossess a de1ree o) lo1i$al merit, 6a.le 9 sho!s the n+m.er o)
!inners )or almost 6"000 r+nners that $arried 11-10 or more in a
National +nt handi$a* ra$es" to1ether !ith the di))eren$e )rom
the e&pected n+m.er o) !inners:
Tab2e +9 -%nner# to Rnner# 0tr%"e Rate by Go%n39
A22 Nat%ona2 ;nt ;and%cap Race#
/%ff. From AdD#ted
Go%n3 -%nner# 456 Rnner# .Epected /%fference
ard 5 ?27,5@ 12 2,0 67,9
#irm 110 ?22,6@ 466 22,2 26,9
Good to )irm 236 ?21,5@ 1274 72,2 42,4
Good 297 ?16,4@ 1712 61,0 25,7
Good to so)t 167 ?16,7@ 1000 27,1 29,2
So)t 151 ?13,9@ 744 22,5 23,4
ea&y 76 ?21,0@ 409 22,4 25,2
A22 *'+> 4*=.=6 1=&= &(*.( <*.>
#or horses !hi$h $arried 11-10 or more in handi$a*s, 6he e&pected
n+m.er o) !inners is $al$+lated dire$tly )rom the n+m.er o) r+nners
in ea$h ra$e analysed,
22
6he )irst )eat+re to note re1ardin1 6a.le 9 is that all elements in
the )irst 3ifference $ol+mn are *ositi&e, 6his ill+strates the hi1her
than a&era1e strike rate )or to* !ei1hts $om*ared to other r+nners,
6he total )i1+re o) 261 im*lies that there !ere 261 more !inners
than !o+ld ha&e .een e:*e$ted i) the horses had .een sele$ted at
random )rom all !ei1ht .ands, 5ltho+1h the )i1+res in the
di))eren$e $ol+mn tend to de$rease to!ards the softer 1oin1
$ate1ories" this is d+e to the de$line in the n+m.er o) so)tDhea&y
1ro+nd ra$es analysed, In )a$t" !hen this e))e$t is remo&ed the
*attern .e$omes ;+ite +ni)orm,
6he 1d4usted 3ifference $ol+mn e:*resses the di))eren$e as a
*er$enta1e o) the e:*e$ted n+m.er o) !inners, In other !ords" the
)i1+res indi$ate the *er$enta1e .y !hi$h the a$t+al n+m.er o)
!inners e:$eed the e:*e$ted n+m.er, #or instan$e" )or the hea&y
1oin1 $ate1ory there !ere 29,2J more !inners than e:*e$ted,
6he hi1h )i1+re )or hard 1oin1 is not *arti$+larly relia.le d+e to
the small sam*le siCe" ho!e&er" the remainin1 )i1+res are
reasona.ly +ni)orm, It $o+ld .e ar1+ed that the )irm 1ro+nd )i1+re
is hi1h" s+**ortin1 the $ase that horses $arry !ei1ht .etter on
)irmer 1ro+nd" tho+1h the 1ood to so)t 1oin1 *er$enta1e" at
25,2J" may also .e $onsidered hi1h, /onse;+ently" there is no
e&iden$e )rom the a.o&e data to $on$l+de that the to* !ei1hts
en>oy a 1reater ad&anta1e o&er the other r+nners !hen the 1oin1 is
)irm" and neither are they 1reatly in$on&enien$ed !hen the 1oin1
t+rns so)t,
6he )inal )a$tor to $onsider +nder the headin1 o) Weight 1nalysis
$on$erns the e))e$t o) $o+rse $on)i1+rations on the a.ility o) the
animal to $arry !ei1ht, It has .een s+11ested that ti1ht t+rnin1
$o+rses hel* an animal to $arry 1reater !ei1hts sin$e the s*eed o)
the r+nners on these ty*es o) tra$k !ill .e lo!er" on a&era1e" !hen
$om*ared to the" so $alled" 1allo*in1 tra$ks, o!e&er"
>+sti)i$ation o) this ass+m*tion
24
re;+ires a$$+rate de)initions o) the terms tight track and
galloping track, Ideally" $o+rses !o+ld .e meas+red to a
reasona.le de1ree o) *re$ision" and data relatin1 to the shar*ness
o) the .ends re$orded, In the a.sen$e o) these )i1+res" !e $o+ld
+se the de)initions *resented in the o))i$ial )orm.ook" or those
*ro&ided .y 6ime)orm to $ate1orise the $o+rses, o!e&er" I am
not totally ha**y !ith these des$ri*tions" !hi$h are made" I
.elie&e" sim*ly .y o.ser&ation, 5n alternati&e a**roa$h is to
sim*ly analyse all $o+rses indi&id+ally and .ase any ded+$tions on
these data, 6he )ollo!in1 ta.le lists all National +nt $o+rses
to1ether !ith the !inners to r+nners strike rate" the a&era1e ret+rn
*er A1 staked to1ether !ith the *er$enta1e di))eren$e .et!een the
n+m.er o) !inners re$orded and the n+m.er o) !inners e:*e$ted
)or all handi$a* r+nners !hi$h $arried 11-10 or more:
Tab2e *'9 .ffect of -e%3$t Carr%ed by Cor#e
A:era3e
Cor#e -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78* 5 /%ff.
Wor$ester 53 ?22,7@ 229 H0,10 39,1
ere)ord 24 ?22,1@ 143 H0,01 35,9
Windsor 19 ?20,0@ 95 H0,09 34,6
Ne!$astle 23 ?23,2@ 99 -0,06 34,0
-erth 20 ?27,0@ 103 H0,13 65,1
E:eter 23 ?21,5@ 132 -0,12 56,6
0elso 25 ?22,6@ 106 H0,12 54,9
%on$aster 14 ?17,9@ 34 -0,01 51,5
#ont!ell 41 ?21,3@ 179 -0,14 47,1
6o!$ester 24 ?20,9@ 162 -0,02 45,9
/he*sto! 29 ?22,2@ 120 -0,10 42,7
Sed1e)ield 42 ?19,9@ 216 -0,13 42,2
(+dlo! 22 ?16,7@ 123 -0,26 42,9
(in1)ield 19 ?22,6@ 74 -0,25 40,0
Ban1or 27 ?20,9@ 124 -0,22 29,9
Nottin1ham 17 ?16,5@ 109 -0,02 26,9
/arlisle 21 ?20,2@ 104 -0,25 25,0
5yr 22 ?21,2@ 150 -0,10 24,3
Win$anton 26 ?19,7@ 121 -0,16 24,5
-l+m*ton 24 ?22,3@ 150 -0,26 22,5
Market 'asen 21 ?13,5@ 133 -0,10 22,2
25
5s$ot 22 ?17,1@ 123 -0,14 21,2
So+th!ell 26 ?20,7@ 125 -0,29 20,9
Wether.y 26 ?20,2@ 137 -0,13 20,2
Gtto:eter 44 ?13,3@ 249 -0,20 29,6
/artmel 9 ?20,5@ 44 -0,02 22,2
/atteri$k 14 ?14,6@ 96 H0,01 21,4
Strat)ord 20 ?16,9@ 133 -0,16 21,2
M+ssel.+r1h 14 ?15,4@ 91 -0,26 20,7
+ntin1don 22 ?13,3@ 171 -0,29 20,1
aydo$k 22 ?21,2@ 107 -0,20 15,9
Ne!ton 5..ot 49 ?13,9@ 234 -0,27 14,5
Ne!.+ry 22 ?16,9@ 120 -0,22 6,3
0em*ton 12 ?14,9@ 73 -0,27 5,3
War!i$k 17 ?14,4@ 125 -0,12 5,0
e:ham 13 ?12,5@ 126 -0,52 2,9
5intree 7 ?12,1@ 66 -0,51 1,5
/heltenham 24 ?12,0@ 175 -0,40 0,2
#akenham 11 ?12,2@ 90 -0,25 0,0
#olkestone 12 ?14,4@ 90 -0,43 -4,7
6a+nton 14 ?9,7@ 142 -0,29 -11,1
Sando!n 17 ?14,2@ 123 -0,46 -12,2
(ei$ester 7 ?10,5@ 36 -0,47 -22,9
#or horses !hi$h $arried 11-10 or more in handi$a*s,
6a.le 10 is sorted .y the percentage difference $ol+mn" there)ore"
the )irst named $o+rses are .est )or to* !ei1hts, Gnlike 6a.le 9"
there are se&eral ne1ati&e )i1+res in this $ol+mn, 6hese indi$ate
the $o+rses !here $arryin1 a lar1e !ei1ht is a$t+ally detrimental to
the $han$es o) the horse !innin1 ?i,e, )e!er horses !on than
e:*e$ted@, 6o em*hasise this *oint )+rther" the a&era1e ret+rn
$ol+mn sho!s a h+1e loss o) 47* *er A1 staked )or all .ets on
horses $arryin1 11-10 or more in handi$a*s at (ei$ester, 6his
$om*ares to a *ro)it o) 13* *er A1 staked at -erth,
6a.le 10 is only a 1+ide to the likely e))e$t o) ra$e$o+rse
$on)i1+ration on the $han$es o) the to* !ei1hts, 6here are se&eral
other )a$tors !hi$h ha&e not .een $onsidered and !hi$h $o+ld
$ontri.+te to the order o) the $o+rses 1i&en a.o&e, #or instan$e"
there may .e a di))eren$e in the a&era1e n+m.er o) r+nners *er
ra$e .et!een the tra$ks !hi$h !o+ld
26
introd+$e a sli1ht .ias, B+t more im*ortantly" ra$in1 may" in
1eneral" .e less $om*etiti&e at some $o+rses !ith )e!er horses
$arryin1 lar1e !ei1hts *er ra$e ?i,e, .i11er 1a*s" in *o+nds"
.et!een the to* !ei1ht and ne:t hi1hest !ei1hted horse@,
o!e&er" i) !e are *re*ared to allo! )or a small de1ree o) error"
in !hat is a &ery +n$ertain domain" the res+lts *resented in 6a.le
10 sho+ld .e +se)+l !hen e&al+atin1 the $han$es o) handi$a**ers,
So )ar !e ha&e identi)ied a theory re1ardin1 !ei1ht $arryin1 !hi$h
r+ns $o+nter to $on&entional lo1i$" and ha&e ill+strated that it
*ossesses a de1ree o) merit, /onse;+ently" !e sho+ld .e a.le to
t+rn this theory into a *ro)ita.le .ettin1 system, 6he key )a$tors
!e need to $onsider are !ei1ht $arried and ra$e$o+rse
$on)i1+ration" the 1oin1 does not a**ear to ha&e a si1ni)i$ant
e))e$t,
Gsin1 6a.le 10 it is *ossi.le to identi)y the most s+$$ess)+l tra$ks
)or to* !ei1hts, Settin1 a percentage difference threshold at 30J
isolates )o+r $o+rses !hi$h are $onsidered si1ni)i$antly .etter )or
to* !ei1hts, 6hese $o+rses are: Wor$ester" ere)ord" Windsor
and Ne!$astle, /onsiderin1 all handi$a* $hase r+nners !hi$h
$arried 12-0 or more at these $o+rses" startin1 at less than 10D1"
?the reasons )or im*osin1 the *ri$e restri$tion ha&e .een dis$+ssed
in *re&io+s se$tions@ o&er the *ast )e! seasons !o+ld ha&e
res+lted in 249 .ets !ith 39 !inners" a strike rate o) 22J" and an
a&era1e ret+rn o) 26* *er A1 staked, 6here)ore"
consider backing any horse starting at less than
!" in a handicap chase at Worcester# -ereford#
Windsor or 5ewcastle which is carrying $ stone or
more% e&pected profit $6p per ( staked.
23
6he e&iden$e *+.lished in *etting For 1 2iving# .ased on tests
+ndertaken in the 19th $ent+ry" indi$ated that !ei1ht only slo!ed
horses to an a**re$ia.le de1ree !hen the amo+nt rea$hed 14
stone, #rom the a.o&e ta.les it a**ears that this ar1+ment $o+ld
still a**ly today" o&er one h+ndred years later,
In s+mmary" the horses !hi$h $arry more !ei1ht !in more o)ten,
#+rthermore" !e )o+nd that +sin1 the !ei1ht allotted as an a.ility
ratin1 is as a$$+rate as the tested inde*endent ratin1s ser&i$e, 6he
ad&anta1e a))orded to the to* !ei1hts does not a**ear to .e
red+$ed !hen the 1oin1 t+rns so)t" .+t $an .e )+rther enhan$ed .y
the $on)i1+ration o) the ra$e$o+rse,
Front Rnner#
In the *eaten Favourites se$tion !e )o+nd a *ro)ita.le .ettin1
strate1y !hi$h i1nored $+rrent )orm" and the $om*etition )rom the
other r+nners in the ra$e, It sim*ly )o$+sed on t!o items o) data
)rom the animal8s *er)orman$e history, 6his does not sit ha**ily
!ith $on&entional ra$ehorse sele$tion !hi$h re;+ires the .ettor to
e&al+ate many attri.+tes asso$iated !ith ea$h r+nner" s+$h as
s+ita.ility o) 1oin1 and ra$e distan$e" in addition to o&erall le&el
o) a.ility" and then to make a $om*arison .ased on these data to
determine the most likely !inner, o!e&er" !e )o+nd that the
*eaten Favourites method *rod+$es a reasona.le *ro)it !hi$h is
almost entirely d+e to its +n$on&entional )orm and the )a$t that the
*ri$e at !hi$h the horse started in its *re&io+s ra$e is not
$onsidered to .e a si1ni)i$ant dis$riminatin1 )a$tor .y most
*+nters and .ookmakers, 5n o.&io+s a**roa$h to de&elo*
alternati&e *ro)ita.le sele$tion methods is to $onsider other data
items !hi$h are o&erlooked .y the .ettin1 *+.li$" and determine
their e))e$ti&eness at ret+rnin1 a *ro)it, In this se$tion !e look at
27
another $ommonly i1nored &aria.le" the style o) r+nnin1 and
s*e$i)i$ally )ront r+nners,
In h+man athleti$s" other than s*rints" )ront r+nnin1 is not
*arti$+larly *o*+lar, +man middle distan$e athletes seem to
*er)orm .etter i) they are a.le to r+n >+st .ehind another
$om*etitor )or the ma>ority o) the ra$e, #or instan$e" *a$e makers
are al!ays +sed )or re$ord .reakin1 attem*ts to ens+re that the
.etter athletes do not ha&e to run from the front, En the other
hand" in horsera$in1 )ront r+nnin1 is ;+ite *o*+lar, 6his
di))eren$e $o+ld .e d+e to $ontrastin1 trainin1 re1imes or the
*sy$holo1i$al di))eren$es .et!een h+mans and horses, 5 h+man
athlete kno!s the e:a$t distan$e o) the ra$e" the distan$e heDshe
has still to r+n and the )a$t that the other r+nners !ill try to *ass
himDher, orses are a!are o) none o) these )a$ts" and are sim*ly
r+nnin1, 6here are" o) $o+rse" e:$e*tional $ases" !here *arti$+lar
horses !ill not r+n so !ell !hen o+t in )ront" and i) they are to !in
need to .e held +* +ntil the )inal sta1es o) the ra$e, B+t in
1eneral" horses" !itho+t the a$+te mental a!areness o) the h+man
athlete" sho+ld .e a.le to r+n >+st as !ell" or .etter" )rom the )ront
as )rom any other *osition in the )ield,
Ene *o*+lar mis$on$e*tion $on$ernin1 )ront r+nners is the s*eed
they are r+nnin1 relati&e to the other r+nners, It is a lon1 held
.elie) .y some ra$e o.ser&ers that )ront r+nners are a$t+ally
r+nnin1 )aster than the )ollo!in1 *a$k" and hen$e the horses !hi$h
are held +* are $onser&in1 their ener1y, I) this !ere tr+e" the 1a*
.et!een the )ront r+nner and the *a$k !o+ld .e 1rad+ally
in$reasin1 !ith the )ront r+nner dra!in1 )+rther $lear, I) the 1a*
remains $onstant" it means that all the horses are r+nnin1 at" or
a.o+t" the same s*eed,
6here are many ad&anta1es to )ront r+nnin1 !hi$h !ere $learly
ill+strated .y the Martin -i*e - -eter S$+damore *artnershi*
d+rin1 the late 19708s, #or e:am*le" )ront r+nners
29
$annot .e .ro+1ht do!n, 5dmittedly" less than 1J o) r+nners are
.ro+1ht do!n ?see -art I@ so the ad&anta1e is only sli1ht" .+t
nonetheless it is an ad&anta1e, #ront r+nners do not s+))er )rom
.ein1 unsighted !hen a**roa$hin1 a h+rdle or )en$e makin1 the
>+m* m+$h harder to e:e$+te and in$reasin1 the $han$es o) )allin1,
Master Eats e:em*li)ied this *oint !hen !innin1 the 1995 Gold
/+*, In the initial sta1es o) the ra$e Master Eats !as held +*
.ehind se&eral horses and his >+m*in1 !as )ar )rom *er)e$t, B+t
as soon as Norman Williamson mo&ed him to the o+tside his
>+m*in1 im*ro&ed markedly and s+$$ess !as &irt+ally ass+red,
Ether ad&anta1es !hi$h $an .e e:*loited .y the >o$key in$l+de:
takin1 the shortest ro+te" sele$tin1 the .est 1ro+nd on !hi$h to
ra$e" di$tatin1 the *a$e o) the ra$e and" most im*ortantly" startin1
the ra$e !ith se&eral len1ths lead o&er the other r+nners,
So" i) !e .elie&e that )ront r+nners hold a distin$t ad&anta1e o&er
their $om*etitors" and that this ad&anta1e is not +ni&ersally
a$$e*ted" !e sho+ld .e a.le to de&elo* a *ro)ita.le .ettin1
strate1y .ased on this ass+m*tion,
Be)ore analysin1 the data it is im*ortant to *re$isely de)ine the
term front runner ?this as*e$t o) the analysis is $o&ered in detail
in the 3eveloping Profitable .election 7ethods se$tion@, #rom
the in)ormation in the )orm.ook" ho! $an !e tell i) the ra$e !as
!on .y a )ront r+nnerB /learly" !e need to look at the $omments-
in-r+nnin1, 6hese $omments are desi1ned to *ro&ide a .rie)
s+mmary o) ho! the ra$e !as r+n and sho+ld $ontain the
in)ormation !e re;+ire, o!e&er" analysin1 these $omments is
not easy" and in terms o) ra$e $omments" the de)inition o) a )ront
r+nner is" to a $ertain e:tent" am.i1+o+s, #or instan$e" !o+ld a
$haser" !hi$h took +* the lead at the se$ond )en$e and maintained
the lead to the line" .e $onsidered a )ront r+nnerB What a.o+t an
animal !hi$h took +* the lead at the third o.sta$le" !as .rie)ly
40
headed t!o )en$es o+t" .+t re1ained the lead to !inB E.&io+sly"
!e need to esta.lish a set o) r+les !hi$h satis)y o+r o!n de)inition
o) a )ront r+nner and a**ly them stri$tly,
#or the *+r*oses o) this analysis" I ha&e de)ined a )ront r+nner to
.e an animal )or !hi$h the $omment-in-r+nnin1 $ontained either o)
the )ollo!in1:
made all
or made &irt+ally all
6his is &ery sim*listi$" and !ill miss many horses !hi$h $o+ld .e
$onsidered to .e )ront r+nners, o!e&er" the de)inition is
+nam.i1+o+s and $an .e a**lied !itho+t too m+$h di))i$+lty,
Gsin1 this de)inition a.o+t 12J o) National +nt ra$es" in re$ent
seasons" ha&e .een !on .y )ront r+nners, 6his $om*ares to 10J
in 1972D74" an in$rease o) a.o+t 60 ra$es, 5nalysin1 )ront
r+nners .y 1oin1 sho+ld indi$ate i) it is easier to !in )rom the
)ront on $ertain ty*es o) 1ro+nd, 6a.le 11 *resents the n+m.er o)
ra$es !on .y )ront r+nners .y 1oin1:
Tab2e **9 Ana2y#%# of Front Rnner# by Go%n3
Nmber of
Front Rnn%n3 Nmber
Go%n3 -%nner# of Race# 456
ard 7 20 26,3
#irm 161 1025 15,6
Good to )irm 250 2343 12,3
Good 233 2697 10,2
Good to so)t 201 1961 10,2
So)t 209 1914 10,9
ea&y 124 751 15,3
A22 *>>' *&&<( **.=
41
#rom 6a.le 11 !e $an see that the *ro*ortion o) ra$es !on .y
)ront r+nners does not &ary a**re$ia.ly ?the )i1+re )or hard 1oin1
is .ased on a small sam*le@, 5nd a)ter ad>+stin1 )or the a&era1e
)ield siCe )or ea$h 1oin1 $ate1ory" the *er$enta1es .e$ome e&en
more +ni)orm" leadin1 +s to $on$l+de that the ty*e o) s+r)a$e does
not e))e$t the $han$es o) a )ront r+nner, 6he $on$l+sion is
di))erent" ho!e&er" !hen the ra$e distan$e is $onsidered, 6a.le 12
sho!s the n+m.er o) ra$es !on .y )ront r+nners !ithin ra$e
distan$e:
Tab2e *&9 Ana2y#%# of Front Rnner# by Race /%#tance
Nmber of
Race Front Rnn%n3 Nmber
/%#tance -%nner# of Race# 456
16),,17) 636 5524 12,2
19),,21) 244 2721 12,2
22),,24) 263 2544 10,5
25)H 150 1212 11,4
A22 *><? *&&'& **.=
5ltho+1h the *er$enta1es a**ear ;+ite +ni)orm" !hen they are
ad>+sted )or the a&era1e n+m.er o) r+nners !ithin ea$h ra$e
distan$e $ate1ory a di))erent *i$t+re emer1es:
Race /%#tance *(..*=f *+..&*f &&..&>f &1fC
AdD#ted 5 13,2 15,6 14,5 12,7
It is not s+r*risin1 to see that )ront r+nners !in more o)ten in the
shorter ra$es, 6he *ro.lem remainin1 is to $on&ert this
in)ormation into a *ro)ita.le sele$tion method,
5t this *oint !e need to determine ho! !e !ill identi)y *ro.a.le
)+t+re )ront r+nners, E+r $+rrent de)inition only relates to the ra$e
in !hi$h the horse is r+nnin1" !hi$h is o) no +se )or .ettin1
*+r*oses, #rom a .ettin1 *ers*e$ti&e" !e
42
need to identi)y before the race !hi$h horse?s@ are likely to )ront
r+n, Nat+rally" an animal8s *ast ra$e *er)orman$es is the .est
1+ide, Gsin1 the $omments-in-r+nnin1 )or *re&io+s ra$e
*er)orman$es the de)inition o) a likely )ront r+nner $o+ld ha&e
.een stated as )ollo!s:
a horse is identified as a probable front runner if it won
its most recent outing and the terms made all or made
&irt+ally all appeared in its comment-in-running.
51ain" this is one o) many de)initions !hi$h $o+ld .e +sed and has
.een sele$ted d+e to its sim*le" +nam.i1+o+s )orm, 5nalysin1 all
horses !hi$h ;+ali)y as *ro.a.le )ront r+nners )or )o+r seasons
*rod+$ed the )ollo!in1 res+lts: 242 !inners )rom 1225 .ets" a
strike rate o) 27J" !ith a loss o) 13* *er A1 staked, 6his is a &ery
*oor res+lt" ho!e&er !ith a little re)inin1 !e sho+ld .e a.le to
t+rn this into a *ro)it,
In the *re&io+s se$tion !e )o+nd that horses are a.le to $arry .i1
!ei1hts more easily at *arti$+lar $o+rses, It is also tr+e that )ront
r+nners are s+ited .y *arti$+lar ty*es o) ra$e$o+rse" 6a.le 12
ill+strates this )a$t:
Tab2e *<9 A:era3e Retrn and 0tr%"e Rate for
Pro#a#$e Fro%t R&%%er" by Racecor#e
A:era3e
Cor#e -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78*
5intree 4 ?12,2@ 20 -0,52
5s$ot 6 ?14,2@ 42 -0,49
5yr 2 ?15,0@ 20 -0,32
Ban1or 9 ?22,1@ 27 -0,13
/arlisle 9 ?42,9@ 21 H0,12
/artmel 2 ?16,3@ 17 -0,32
/atteri$k 3 ?46,3@ 15 H1,12
/heltenham 24 ?19,7@ 121 -0,20
/he*sto! 5 ?20,0@ 25 -0,52
%on$aster 3 ?25,0@ 20 H0,35
42
E:eter 11 ?24,4@ 22 -0,12
#akenham 1 ?9,1@ 11 -0,59
#olkestone 1 ?25,0@ 4 -0,63
#ont!ell 14 ?45,2@ 21 H0,07
aydo$k 9 ?22,3@ 27 -0,49
ere)ord 12 ?40,0@ 20 H0,22
e:ham 2 ?40,0@ 5 H0,21
+ntin1don 12 ?22,2@ 29 H0,12
0elso 9 ?42,9@ 21 H0,02
0em*ton 17 ?22,3@ 55 -0,11
(ei$ester 2 ?21,4@ 14 -0,52
(in1)ield 4 ?26,4@ 11 -0,13
(+dlo! 6 ?23,2@ 22 -0,52
Market 'asen 7 ?25,7@ 21 -0,26
M+ssel.+r1h 5 ?31,4@ 3 H1,05
Ne!.+ry 10 ?22,7@ 42 -0,10
Ne!$astle 4 ?19,1@ 21 -0,21
Ne!ton 5..ot 14 ?24,2@ 41 -0,21
Nottin1ham 5 ?25,3@ 14 -0,03
-erth 7 ?43,1@ 13 H0,27
-l+m*ton 12 ?40,6@ 22 H0,02
Sando!n 14 ?22,6@ 42 H0,23
Sed1e)ield 6 ?25,0@ 24 -0,21
So+th!ell 2 ?16,3@ 12 -0,27
Strat)ord 7 ?13,4@ 46 -0,50
6a+nton 6 ?25,0@ 24 -0,21
6o!$ester 2 ?15,7@ 19 -0,30
Gtto:eter 19 ?22,2@ 53 -0,03
War!i$k 7 ?25,7@ 21 -0,29
Wether.y 7 ?19,5@ 41 -0,27
Win$anton 3 ?27,0@ 25 H0,06
Windsor 0 ?0,0@ 5 -1,00
Wor$ester 10 ?23,0@ 23 H0,05
A22 <>< &=.' *&&1 @'.*?
#rom 6a.le 12 the tra$ks !hi$h s+it )ront r+nners $an easily .e
seen, 6he *er$enta1e strike rate ran1es )rom 0J at Windsor to
31J at M+ssel.+r1h, /onse;+ently" the )ront r+nners8 $o+rses
$an .e $lassi)ied .y $om*arin1 the strike )or ea$h tra$k !ith the
o&erall a&era1e strike rate, Settin1 a
44
threshold at 25J" all $o+rses !ith a !inners to r+nners strike rate
e:$eedin1 this threshold !o+ld .e $lassi)ied as 1ood tra$ks )or
)ront r+nners, ?6his is an ar.itrary threshold and $an .e in$reased
or lo!ered to &ary the analysis,@ 6he $o+rses !hi$h e:$eed the
25J threshold are listed .elo! ?e:$l+din1 Nottin1ham !hi$h no
lon1er sta1es national +nt ra$in1@:
/arlisle" /atteri$k" %on$aster" #ont!ell" ere)ord"
e:ham" 0elso" (in1)ield" M+ssel.+r1h" -erth and
-l+m*ton,
Ba$kin1 all ;+ali)yin1 horses at these tra$ks res+lts in 90 !inners
)rom 210 .ets" a strike rate o) 42J" !ith an a&era1e ret+rn *er A1
staked o) 29*, 6here)ore"
consider backing any horse classified as a probable
front runner at +arlisle# +atterick# 3oncaster#
Fontwell# -ereford# -e&ham# 8elso# 2ingfield#
7usselburgh# Perth or Plumpton% e&pected profit
$9p per ( staked.
6he a.o&e res+lt is ;+ite *leasin1" ho!e&er" it is *ossi.le to
im*ro&e .oth the strike rate and the a&era1e ret+rn, By restri$tin1
the analysis to handi$a* ra$es res+lts in 55 !inners )rom 125 .ets"
a strike rate o) 41J" !ith a ret+rn o) 42* *er A1 staked, We ha&e
already seen that )ront r+nners are .etter s+ited .y shorter distan$e
ra$es" and .y )+rther restri$tin1 o+r .ets to handi$a* ra$es o&er 16-
17 )+rlon1s im*ro&es the ret+rn to: 22 !inners )rom 65 .ets" a
strike rate o) 49J" !ith an a&era1e ret+rn o) 32* *er A1 staked,
In s+mmary" horses !hi$h ha&e !on ra$es .y )ront r+nnin1 are
!orthy o) $lose $onsideration, 6here are many ad&anta1es to )ront
r+nnin1" not least the lead !hi$h $an .e
45
*oa$hed at the start o) a ra$e, #ront r+nners are .etter s+ited to
shorter ra$es ?i,e, 16 to 17 )+rlon1s@" and .y *arti$+lar ra$e$o+rse
$on)i1+rations,
0%re#
In #lat ra$in1 the in)l+en$es o) the sire" and to a $ertain e:tent the
dam" are +sed to *ro&ide $l+es to the likes and dislikes o) the
*ro1eny, #or instan$e" as the %er.y nears there is al!ays
s*e$+lation in the trade *ress re1ardin1 the likely le&els o) stamina
*ossessed .y the leadin1 $ontenders .ased on the stamina
e:hi.ited .y their sires" dams and 1randsires,
In National +nt ra$in1" the in)l+en$e o) the animal8s *arents is
not s+$h an im*ortant to*i$, 6his is .e$a+se the horses tend to r+n
more o)ten and" hen$e" their *re)eren$es $an .e determined dire$tly
)rom the )orm, o!e&er" it is a !orth!hile e:er$ise to resear$h
the in)l+en$es o) the sires o) National +nt horses" and 1enerate
in)ormation !hi$h $o+ld .e in$or*orated into .ettin1 systems, 5
)+ll e:amination o) all National +nt sires is .eyond the s$o*e o)
this te:t" ho!e&er" 60 o) the to* sires ha&e .een e:amined to
*rod+$e the )ollo!in1 ta.les, 6he sires ;+oted are those )or !hom
the in)l+en$e is si1ni)i$ant )or ea$h analysis $om*onent,
6a.le 14 ill+strates the in)l+en$e o) the sire on its *ro1eny8s
*re)eren$e )or *arti$+lar states o) 1oin1,
46
Tab2e *>9 A:era3e Retrn and 0tr%"e Rate of Pro3enyB# Race
Performance# by Go%n3
Fa#t Grond 0oft Grond
0%re 456 Retrn78* 456 Retrn78*
5lias Smith ?GS5@ 4,2 -0,32 12,7 H0,53
Bla$k Minstrel 9,2 -0,46 15,4 -0,21
Blakeney 16,7 -0,02 11,6 -0,43
Broads!ord ?GS5@ 10,6 H0,11 4,4 -0,72
B+$kskin ?#'@ 14,4 -0,20 20,5 H0,20
/rash /o+rse 3,1 -0,32 12,6 -0,24
%ee* '+n 13,3 -0,02 11,6 -0,20
%ominion 11,2 -0,24 16,5 -0,27
Ele$tri$ 15,6 -0,50 7,4 -0,50
G+nner B 2,7 -0,65 12,2 H0,04
en.it ?GS5@ 20,4 -0,00 10,7 -0,24
=+lio Mariner 15,9 H0,02 3,4 -0,39
0am.alda 22,0 -0,02 12,1 -0,23
0emal ?#'@ 11,3 H0,01 16,2 H0,01
0ris 13,5 -0,13 11,9 -0,23
(e Ba&ard ?#'@ 14,2 H0,17 6,2 -0,69
Nisha*o+r ?#'@ 12,2 -0,22 6,6 -0,34
E&er 6he 'i&er ?#'@ 15,4 -0,09 7,6 -0,29
-hardante ?#'@ 19,1 H0,05 10,3 -0,21
Stron1 Gale 19,7 H0,01 10,9 -0,29
6or+s 16,1 H0,92 11,5 -0,42
6r+e Son1 12,2 -0,55 4,5 -0,21
Gn$le -okey 4,0 -0,71 15,6 -0,02
!here fast 1ro+nd is de)ined to .e hard" firm or good to firm and soft
1ro+nd is de)ined to .e soft or heavy 1oin1 in the E))i$ial )orm.ook,
6here are remarka.le di))eren$es .et!een some o) the *er$enta1es
*resented in the a.o&e ta.le, #or instan$e" only 2,7J o) the ra$e
*er)orman$es on fast 1oin1 .y the *ro1eny o) G+nner B ha&e
res+lted in !ins" !hereas on soft 1oin1 this )i1+re in$reases to
12,2J, It is also interestin1 to note that it !o+ld ha&e .een
*ro)ita.le to .a$k all *ro1eny o) se&eral sires on either so)t or )ast
1oin1, #or e:am*le" a le&el A1 stake .et on all the r+nners sired
.y B+$kskin ?#'@ !o+ld ha&e res+lted in an a&era1e ret+rn o) 20*
*er A1, 5n analysis .y ra$e distan$e is e;+ally as in)ormati&e,
6a.le 15 *resents this in)ormation:
43
Tab2e *19 A:era3e Retrn and 0tr%"e Rate of Pro3enyB# Race
Performance# by Race /%#tance
Race /%#tance %n fr2on3#
0%re *(..&'f &*..&>f &1fC
5lias Smith ?GS5@ : 2,5 9,6 13,1
Ret -0,49 -0,26 -0,16
5rdross : 17,9 16,7 12,9
Ret H0,19 H0,17 H0,11
Baron Blakeney : 9,7 9,2 1,7
Ret -0,42 -0,44 -0,90
Bla$k Minstrel : 12,4 11,7 4,9
Ret -0,05 -0,23 -0,36
%errin1 'ose : 4,0 12,0 13,3
Ret -0,74 -0,26 -0,14
%ominion : 14,3 12,0 3,1
Ret -0,29 -0,07 -0,36
#+rry Glen : 15,2 12,4 10,1
Ret -0,22 -0,23 -0,27
Green Shoon : 7,1 9,6 15,4
Ret -0,46 -0,42 H0,05
G+nner B : 10,9 2,6 0,0
Ret -0,16 -0,37 -1,00
(e Ba&ard ?#'@ : 3,2 9,2 11,3
Ret -0,40 -0,29 -0,42
Eats : 12,5 14,0 21,5
Ret -0,16 -0,16 H0,05
'oselier ?#'@ : 12,5 14,4 20,3
Ret -0,07 -0,26 H0,50
!here Ret denotes the a&era1e ret+rn *er A1 staked,
Based on the a.o&e data" it is $lear that stamina traits are *assed
)rom sire to o))s*rin1, #or e:am*le" the *ro1eny o) Baron
Blakeney do not a**ear s+ited .y e:treme distan$es in e:$ess o) 2
miles, In $ontrast" the r+nners sired .y Eats seem to e:$el in lon1
distan$e ra$es,
5 third and sli1htly more o.s$+re analysis" $on$erns $o+rse
dire$tions, Some animals *re)er to r+n in a *arti$+lar dire$tion"
either ri1ht- or le)t-handed, 6he )ollo!in1 ta.le seems to indi$ate
that this *re)eren$e $an .e inherited )rom the sire,
Tab2e *(9 A:era3e Retrn and 0tr%"e Rate of Pro3enyB# Race
Performance# by Cor#e /%rect%on
47
+ourse 3irection
Left@;anded R%3$t@;anded
0%re 456 Retrn78* 456 Retrn78*
5.salom 3,7 -0,69 12,4 -0,44
5rdross 20,2 H0,24 11,4 -0,25
Bla$k Minstrel 9,7 -0,40 15,0 H0,02
Blakeney 9,9 -0,42 15,2 -0,25
/r+ise Missile 2,2 -0,53 3,4 -0,69
#+rry Glen 15,1 -0,22 11,4 -0,22
Green Shoon 12,4 -0,16 3,7 -0,53
G+nner B 11,0 -0,15 5,2 -0,53
0emal ?#'@ 14,4 -0,17 9,7 -0,42
(e Moss 15,4 H0,09 12,6 -0,22
'oselier ?#'@ 12,3 -0,15 16,5 H0,05
S$ally!a1 11,0 -0,42 6,7 -0,52
6he -arson 15,2 -0,19 11,0 -0,29
6r+e Son1 3,4 -0,62 12,2 -0,25
Gn$le -okey 6,7 -0,55 10,9 -0,20
%+e to the lar1e n+m.er o) ra$e *er)orman$es analysed ?o&er
100"000@ all the a.o&e di))eren$es in strike rate .et!een the
$o+rse dire$tions are si1ni)i$ant, 6he most strikin1 di))eren$e is
that )or 5rdross, 5 !inners to r+nners strike rate o) 20,4J on
le)t-handed $o+rses $om*ared to only 11,4J on ri1ht-handed
tra$ks,
6he a.o&e ta.les ill+strate the traits !hi$h $an .e inherited .y
horses )rom their sires, Whilst this in)ormation alone $annot .e
+sed to )orm+late a *ro)ita.le .ettin1 strate1y" it sho+ld .e
$onsidered as a $om*onent o) $on&entional ra$e analysis"
es*e$ially )or *re&io+sly +nra$ed horses" and to s+**lement other
systemati$ sele$tion methods,
49
T$e T%me Factor
In National +nt ra$in1" *re&io+s ra$e times are not 1enerally
$onsidered to .e o) *rimary im*ortan$e !hen analysin1 ra$es d+e
to the *ro.lemati$ nat+re o) in$or*oratin1 the data into a so+nd
analyti$al )orm+la, 6here are many di))i$+lties asso$iated !ith
+sin1 ra$e times to assist in ra$e analysis" s*e$i)i$ally the
+nrelia.le nat+re o) the 1oin1 assessments and the &ariation in the
ra$e$o+rse $on)i1+rations a$ross the $o+ntry, o!e&er" it is still
*ossi.le to de&ise sele$tion methods !hi$h rely on *re&io+sly
a$hie&ed ra$e times !hi$h are !orthy o) $onsideration,
6he &aria.ility o) ra$e$o+rse $on)i1+ration $an" to some e:tent" .e
n+lli)ied .y the introd+$tion o) a ra$e standard time, Both the
trade *a*ers" as !ell as 6ime)orm and 'a$e)orm" *rod+$e standard
times )or ea$h ra$e distan$e on e&ery $o+rse in Great Britain,
S+$h times are s+**osed to re*resent the likely time a horse rated
125 .y the BB !o+ld take to r+n the $o+rse on 1ood to )irm
1oin1, Gsin1 these standards )a$ilitates the $om*arison o) ra$e
times *rod+$ed .y di))erent horses on di))erent tra$ks, o!e&er it
does not take a$$o+nt o) &aryin1 1ro+nd $onditions,
Nat+rally" ra$es r+n on di))erent 1ro+nd $onditions !ill *rod+$e
di))erent times, #or instan$e" ra$es on so)t or hea&y 1ro+nd $an
res+lt in times o&er 50 se$onds slo!er than the standard" !hereas
those on a )ast s+r)a$e $an .e r+n in times si1ni)i$antly )aster than
the standard, /learly" the a$$+rate $om*arison o) s+$h ra$e
*er)orman$es is not an easy *ro.lem to o&er$ome,
6he $al$+lation o) a 1oin1 allo!an$e" .ased on the ra$es sta1ed on
the $o+rse on a *arti$+lar day" is o)ten s+11ested as a sol+tion to
this *ro.lem, 6his )i1+re $an then .e +sed to normalise )or the
e))e$t o) the 1oin1 at di))erent $o+rses and
50
)a$ilitate the $om*arison o) the ra$e *er)orman$es, 6o determine
the 1oin1 allo!an$e" the di))eren$es .et!een the a$t+al ra$e times
and the standard times are )irst di&ided .y the ra$e distan$es and
then a&era1ed a)ter any )reak )i1+res ha&e .een remo&ed,
6here)ore" )or a si: ra$e $ard" the times may ha&e .een as )ollo!s:
Tab2e *?9 Ca2c2at%on of Go%n3 A22owance
Race Race 0tandard /%ff. per
/%#t. T%me 4#6 T%me 4#6 /%ff. 4#6 Fr2on3 4#6
16,5 259,5 223,0 22,5 1,26
20,5 214,5 274,0 20,5 1,49
19,5 216,5 272,0 22,5 1,32
16,5 265,0 227,0 23,0 2,24
24,0 406,4 223,0 69,4 2,79
16,5 260,6 227,0 22,6 1,97
It $o+ld .e ar1+ed that the time )or the )i)th ra$e is an o+tlier and
sho+ld .e remo&ed )rom the 1oin1 allo!an$e $al$+lation d+e to its
e:treme &al+e, /onse;+ently" the 1oin1 allo!an$e .e$omes the
a&era1e o) the other )i&e times" namely 1,36 se$onds *er )+rlon1,
In )a$t" Ni$k Mordin ?in *etting For 1 2iving@ 1enerally takes the
a&era1e o) the three )astest times e:$l+din1 any o+tliers" altho+1h
there are no hard and )ast r+les 1o&ernin1 the n+m.er o) ra$es yo+
+se,
En$e the 1oin1 allo!an$e has .een $al$+lated it is *ossi.le to
$al$+late a s*eed )i1+re )or any r+nner on the $ard, #irstly" it is
ne$essary to ad>+st the time o) the !inner .y the 1oin1 allo!an$e"
to *rod+$e a normalised time, 6here)ore" i) the 1oin1 allo!an$e
indi$ates that the tra$k is ridin1 )aster than the norm" the !innin1
time is in$reased a$$ordin1ly, #or instan$e" i)" in a 16 )+rlon1
h+rdle ra$e" the tra$k is )o+nd to .e ridin1 0,1 se$onds *er )+rlon1
)aster than the standard" the
51
time o) the !inner sho+ld .e in$reased .y 1,6 se$onds ?i,e, 16 :
0,1@, 6his ne! time .ein1 an estimate o) the time the horse !o+ld
ha&e re$orded on a&era1e 1oin1,
6o $on&ert the time to a ratin1 it is ne$essary to $onsider the
standard ra$e time )or the distan$e, 5t this *oint" it is ne$essary to
set the s$ale )or the ratin1s, Normally" a horse *rod+$in1 a time
e;+i&alent to the standard !o+ld .e 1i&en a ratin1 o) 100,
o!e&er" any )i1+re $o+ld .e +sed to determine the ratin1 s$ale,
6he ne:t ste* is to determine the di))eren$e .et!een the standard
time and the ad>+sted time" in se$onds, 6his )i1+re is m+lti*lied
.y 5 ?len1ths r+n *er se$ond@, 6he res+ltant )i1+re is either added
to" or s+.tra$ted )rom" 100 de*endin1 on !hether the ad>+sted
time is )aster" or slo!er than the standard time, #inally" the )i1+re
sho+ld .e ad>+sted )or distan$e .eaten .y the !inner, #or a more
detailed des$ri*tion o) $al$+latin1 s*eed )i1+res see *etting For 1
2iving .y Ni$k Mordin,
Whilst this method )or 1eneratin1 s*eed ratin1s is !ell )o+nded in
theory" it relies hea&ily on t!o *otentially +nrelia.le $om*onents"
namely the standard time and 1oin1 allo!an$e, In )a$t" the a$t+al
ra$e time itsel) is )ar )rom *er)e$t" de*endin1 as it does" in the
ma>ority o) $ases" on hand-timin1,
6he )ollo!in1 method )or sele$tin1 horses !ith !innin1 *otential
+tilises the ra$e time and standard time .+t not the 1oin1
allo!an$e" !hi$h" d+e to its a**ro:imate method o) $al$+lation" is
the $om*onent s+.>e$t to the hi1hest de1ree o) error,
6he sele$tion method is .ased on the horses !hi$h *rod+$e the
.est ra$e times o) the day at ea$h ra$e$o+rse, 6he best time o) the
day is sim*ly the )astest time relati&e to the standards, #or
e:am*le" 1i&en the si: ra$es:
52
/%fference from
Race Nmber 0tandard T%me 4#6
1 H11,7
2 H7,0
2 H2,9
4 H6,2
5 H3,9
6 H5,0
the .est ra$e time o) the day !as re$orded in ra$e 2 sin$e this time
is $losest to the standard and all ra$e times e:$eeded their
$om*ara.le standards, In the ne:t e:am*le" the .est ra$e time !as
re$orded in ra$e 4" the ra$e !hi$h *rod+$ed a time 2,9 se$onds
)aster than the standard ?hen$e the min+s si1n@, 6he ne:t .est time
o) the day !o+ld .e ra$e 1 at 1,1 se$onds +nder the standard,
/%fference from
Race Nmber 0tandard T%me
1 -1,1
2 H5,5
2 H2,6
4 -2,9
5 H9,9
6 H11,0
6he )ollo!in1 ta.le $harts the *er)orman$e o) horses !hi$h !in
the ra$e *rod+$in1 the .est time o) the day" on their ne:t o+tin1:
Tab2e *=9 0tr%"e Rate and A:era3e Retrn for Good T%me
Performer# on T$e%r NeEt Rn
T%me
A
A:era3e
/%fference -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78*
0,00-4,00 269 ?29,6@ 910 -0,01
4,01-5,00 29 ?29,2@ 122 -0,11
5,01-6,00 25 ?21,6@ 39 H0,14
6,01-3,00 22 ?26,3@ 60 H0,47
52
3,01-7,00 17 ?42,9@ 42 H0,07
7,01H 24 ?21,2@ 33 H0,20
Tota2 <+? 4<'.16 *<'* C'.'<
A
the time di))eren$e is the n+m.er o) se$onds .et!een the .est time
?the ;+ali)yin1 time@ and the ne:t .est time o) the day a)ter ad>+stin1 .y
the standard times,
/learly" there is some merit in this a**roa$h, 6he strike rate o)
o&er 20J is more than ade;+ate" ho!e&er" an a&era1e ret+rn o)
>+st 2* *er A1 staked !o+ld translate to a loss )or o))-$o+rse
*+nters, 5n o.&io+s modi)i$ation is to restri$t the sele$tions to
those horses !hi$h !in ra$es !ith ad>+sted time di))eren$es o)
o&er 5 se$onds )aster than the ne:t .est time o) the day, 6his
!o+ld res+lt in 79 !inners )rom 257 .ets" a strike rate o) 24,5J"
!ith an a&era1e ret+rn o) 22* *er A1 staked, 6here)ore"
consider backing the winner of the fastest race of
the day# providing the ad4usted time difference was
more than ) seconds faster than the ne&t best time
of the day# on its ne&t run% e&pected profit $;p per
( staked.
It !o+ld .e lo1i$al to $on$l+de that horses in the hi1hest time
$ate1ories sho+ld .e the .est animals to )ollo! d+e to their
o.&io+s s+*eriority o&er the other r+nners at the $o+rse, o!e&er"
the a&era1e ret+rn )or the t!o hi1hest time $ate1ories ?i,e, 3,01-7,0
and 7,01H@ is" in )a$t" in)erior to the 6,01-3,0 se$onds $ate1ory,
Ene reason )or this anomaly is that horses !hi$h *rod+$e
o+tstandin1 times" re$ord times et$," are !ell re*orted in the *ress
and are .ro+1ht to the attention o) *+nters and .ookmakers, 5s a
res+lt s+.se;+ent startin1 *ri$es )or these horses !ill .e red+$ed
to re)le$t this
54
1ood *er)orman$e, 5n alternati&e e:*lanation is that s+$h ra$e
times indi$ate errors in the standard time )or the $o+rse,
5n analysis o) the 257 sele$tions .y ra$e 1rade sho+ld hel* to
im*ro&e the a&era1e ret+rn, 6a.le 19 *resents this analysis:
Tab2e *+9 0tr%"e Rate and A:era3e Retrn for Good T%me
Performer# on T$e%r NeEt Rn by Race Grade
Race
A
A:era3e
Grade -%nner# 456 Rnner# Retrn78*
/ond, dl, 4 ?66,3@ 6 H2,64
/lm, dl, 2 ?66,3@ 2 H1,63
No&, dl, 14 ?27,9@ 26 H0,23
Sell, dl, 4 ?44,4@ 9 H2,79
$a*, dl 16 ?24,6@ 65 -0,01
+nter /hs, 0 ?0,0@ 2 -1,00
/ond, /hs, 2 ?22,2@ 6 -0,47
/lm, /hs, 0 ?0,0@ 1 -1,00
No&, /hs, 22 ?46,7@ 43 H0,22
Sell, /hs, 0 ?-@ 0 -
$a*,/hs, 25 ?20,5@ 72 -0,06
Tota2 =+ 4<>.16 &1= C'.&<
A
the ra$e 1rade relates to the ra$e ty*e in !hi$h the 1ood time !as
re$orded,
#rom 6a.le 17 it $an .e seen that non handi$a* ra$es seem to
*ro&ide a .etter 1+ide than handi$a*s, By restri$tin1 the analysis
to non handi$a*s im*ro&es the a&era1e ret+rn to 57* *er A1
staked" altho+1h the n+m.er o) .ets is red+$ed,
In this se$tion !e ha&e seen ho! di))i$+lt it is to $om*are times o)
di))erent ra$es d+e to the e))e$t o) the 1oin1 and the !ide &ariety o)
ra$e$o+rse $on)i1+rations, o!e&er" it is still *ossi.le to de&elo*
*ro)ita.le sele$tion methods +sin1 ra$e times and ra$e standards,
6he method o+tlined hi1hli1hts
55
horses !hi$h ha&e *rod+$ed si1ni)i$antly .etter ra$e times than the
other r+nners on the same $ard, Whilst these r+nners are !orth
)ollo!in1" the le&el o) *ro)ita.ility does not in$rease linearly !ith
the time s+*eriority, 6his )a$t sho+ld .e remem.ered !hen
$onsiderin1 .a$kin1 horses !hi$h ha&e *rod+$ed re$ord times in
the *ast,
/e:e2op%n3 Prof%tab2e 0e2ect%on Met$od#
6his )inal se$tion o) -art II is de&oted to *ro&idin1 the reader !ith
a set o) 1+idelines )or de&elo*in1" testin1 and im*lementin1
*ro)ita.le horsera$in1 sele$tion methods,
/e:e2opment 0ta3e
0%mp2%c%ty - When desi1nin1 a sele$tion method it is im*ortant
not to make it too $om*le:, 5s the n+m.er o) &aria.les in$reases
?i,e, distan$e .eaten last time" 1oin1 last time" 1oin1 today" ra$e
distan$e last time" ra$e distan$e today" days sin$e last r+n et$,@ the
amo+nt o) data needed to 1i&e meanin1)+l res+lts in$reases,
/om*le: systems are also di))i$+lt to im*lement" re;+irin1 a 1reat
deal o) sear$hin1 thro+1h *re&io+s )orm to determine the sele$tion,
Un%Fene## - 6ry to )ind new relationshi*s .et!een the data,
Gsin1 the normal data items in $on&entional )ashion !ill" in all
*ro.a.ility" *rod+$e losin1 systems, 6he odds on o))er a$$o+nt
)or the esta.lished trends" and $onse;+ently there is no &al+e )or
the *+nter, #or e:am*le" 6a.le 6 ill+strates the relationshi*
.et!een a&era1e ret+rn and the distan$e the horse !as .eaten on
its latest r+n, #or ea$h $ate1ory o) distan$e .eaten !ithin the ta.le
the a&era1e ret+rn is ne1ati&e, 6his trend is !ell kno!n and is
)+lly a$$o+nted )or in the .ookmakers8 odds,
56
Lo3%c - When sear$hin1 )or +ni;+e a**roa$hes it is im*erati&e to
ens+re that the &aria.les +sed are sensi.le, #or instan$e" !hilst
.a$kin1 all horses ridden .y .earded >o$keys may ha&e ret+rned a
*ro)it in the *ast" )a$ial hair $an hardly .e $onsidered a relia.le
dis$riminatin1 )a$tor !ith re1ard to the $han$es o) ra$in1 s+$$ess,
Corre2at%on - Be !ary o) ill-)o+nded relationshi*s and hidden
$orrelations, 5s an e:am*le" horses r+nnin1 in 5+1+st tend to
*rod+$e )aster ra$e times than those r+nnin1 in #e.r+ary" there)ore
they m+st .e .etter animals, Whilst this $on$l+sion seems a
lo1i$al ded+$tion )rom the a&aila.le e&iden$e" it is an
+n$onsidered &aria.le !hi$h *rod+$es this res+lt" namely the
1oin1, #aster 1oin1 *rod+$es )aster ra$e times and the 1ro+nd is
likely to ride )irmer in 5+1+st than #e.r+ary" hen$e the )aster
times,
Tra%ner# and Joc"ey# - Basin1 systems on trainer andDor >o$keys
is not *arti$+larly relia.le )or the reasons hi1hli1hted in
+orrelation, 6here is a 1reat deal o) $orrelation .et!een trainers"
>o$keys and o!ners: the .est >o$keys ride )or the .est trainers and
the most dominant o!ners tend to ha&e their horses ridden .y the
.est >o$keys, /onse;+ently" a &ery *ro)ita.le sele$tion method
$an s+ddenly .e$ome &ery $ostly i) a main o!ner remo&es hisDher
horses )rom a trainer" or a ridin1 arran1ement is terminated,
Mea#rement - Base the sele$tion methods on ;+anti)ia.le
&aria.les" )or e:am*le data items s+$h as histori$al !ins to r+ns
strike rate o) the horse, 6ry to a&oid ;+alitati&e items s+$h as
s+ita.ility o) 1oin1" distan$e et$," +nless these terms $an .e
de)ined *re$isely, E*inion is di))i$+lt to analyse" and it is )ar )rom
$onstant, I) yo+ )eel that s+ita.ility o) the 1oin1 is im*ortant" then
de)ine e:a$tly !hat $onstit+tes s+ita.le and +ns+ita.le 1oin1 )or a
horse, #or instan$e" the )ollo!in1 de)inition $o+ld .e +sed )or
1oin1 s+ita.ility:
53
the going may be assessed as suitable if and only if the
horse has won on an identical surface in the past ten
runs.
o!e&er" this in itsel) !ill introd+$e )+rther *ro.lems, Gsin1 this
de)inition dis$riminates" to a $ertain e:tent" .et!een horses !hi$h
ha&e !on in the *ast ten r+ns and those !hi$h ha&e not,
/onse;+ently" an +nderlyin1 relationshi* has already .een
introd+$ed,
/ata Co22ect%on - 6here are three iss+es $on$erned !ith data
$olle$tion: ;+ality" ;+antity and s*read, /learly" the data $olle$ted
needs to .e a$$+rate and +n.iased, 6his seems o.&io+s" .+t it is
not ne$essarily a strai1ht)or!ard task to +ndertake" es*e$ially
!hen e:tra$tin1 data man+ally )rom a )orm.ook, It is &ery easy to
omit *arti$+lar ra$es d+rin1 the e:tra$tion *ro$ess reasonin1:
<Well" I !o+ldn8t ha&e .et in that ra$e any!ay8, Nat+rally"
s+))i$ient data needs to .e $olle$ted to s+**ort the $om*le:ity o)
the system, o!e&er" too many seasons8 data $an introd+$e .ias
d+e to the on1oin1 $han1in1 nat+re o) ra$in1, #or instan$e" in #lat
handi$a*s" horses $arryin1 lar1e *enalties !ere 1ood .ettin1
o**ort+nities" ho!e&er the introd+$tion o) the )i&e day entry
system in 1977 r+ined this method, -arado:i$ally" it is not
ad&isa.le to e:tra$t data )rom >+st one season, /ertain $onditions
o) the year" !eather" ;+ality o) horse et$," !ill .ias any analysis,
6he data needs to .e s*read e&enly o&er a )e! re$ent seasons,
Lon3 0$ot# - In 1eneral" I do not like systems !hi$h sele$t lon1
*ri$ed !inners )or t!o reasons, %e&elo*in1 a**roa$hes .ased on
lon1 *ri$ed horses re;+ires h+1e amo+nts o) .a$k data d+e to the
hi1h &arian$e o) the a&era1e ret+rn statisti$, In )a$t" i) a sele$tion
method has sele$ted a lon1 *ri$ed !inner ?i,e, 20D1 or 1reater@ I
remo&e it )rom the analysis, It only takes one or t!o o) these
sele$tions to t+rn a &ery *oor
57
system into a seemin1ly *ro)ita.le method, #+rthermore" !hen
r+nnin1 the system these sele$tions are o)ten i1nored" es*e$ially
d+rin1 lon1 losin1 r+ns,
0tr%"e rate - 5im )or an a**roa$h !ith a reasona.le !inner to
.ets strike rate, 5 strike rate o) >+st 10J is not really hi1h
eno+1h" the losin1 r+ns !ill o$$+r too )re;+ently and $o+ld .e
e:tremely lon1, 5im )or a strike rate o) at least 20J,
Te#t%n3 0ta3e
6here are t!o di))erent !ays o) testin1 a ne! sele$tion method,
6he )irst in&ol&es *artitionin1 the data set before the de&elo*ment
*ro$ess, Ene *art $an .e +sed )or de&elo*ment and the other )or
testin1, #or instan$e" i) the data ha&e .een $olle$ted )rom )o+r
seasons" the )irst three seasons $o+ld .e +sed to de&elo* and re)ine
the system !ith the )o+rth season +sed )or testin1, 6he se$ond
method" and the one I *re)er" is to test the system li&e, In other
!ords" de&elo* the a**roa$h on all a&aila.le and rele&ant data"
and $ond+$t the testin1 *hase d+rin1 the )ollo!in1 year .y either
kee*in1 a re$ord o) the system8s *er)orman$e or .y a$t+ally
.a$kin1 the sele$tions to small stakes, In addition to *ro&idin1 a
real test en&ironment" this a**roa$h is also one o) ed+$ation )or
the *+nter, By $losely monitorin1 the system thro+1h the
*la$ement o) .ets" the *+nter !ill 1et a .etter feel )or the method
and *erha*s identi)y other hi1hly $orrelated &aria.les, #or
instan$e the likelihood o) lon1 losin1 r+ns" the !ay heDshe rea$ts
a)ter se&eral losin1 .ets et$, En$e satis)ied !ith the &alidity o) the
system the *+nter $an then in$rease the stakes,
Rnn%n3 T$e 0y#tem
It is &ery easy to .reak the r+les o) the system" es*e$ially d+rin1
lon1 losin1 r+ns, 6his .eha&io+r sho+ld .e a&oided, -ro&idin1
the system has .een .ased on !ell-)o+nded ideas"
59
and has .een ade;+ately tested" there is no need to do+.t its a.ility
to ret+rn a *ro)it, /onse;+ently" the de&ised stakin1 *lan sho+ld
.e adhered to, 6here is nothin1 !orse than )indin1" at the end o)
the year" that yo+ ha&e lost money" and that i) yo+ had ke*t to the
system8s r+les yo+ !o+ld ha&e made a *ro)it,
60
CONCLUDING REMARKS
6hro+1ho+t this .ook I ha&e attem*ted to sho! that !hilst it is
*ossi.le to make a *ro)it )rom =+m*s ra$in1" it does not
ne$essarily $ome )rom the $on&entional a**roa$h to !inner
)indin1, Sim*ly .a$kin1 a hi1h *ro*ortion o) !inners does not
ens+re a lon1 term *ro)it,
6he $on&entional a**roa$h to ra$e analysis re;+ires the *+nter to
determine" amon1st n+mero+s other )a$tors" !hether the sele$tion
is s+ited .y the ra$e distan$e" 1oin1" tra$k $on)i1+ration et$," all o)
!hi$h ha&e .een $onsidered .y the .ookmakers .e)ore *ri$in1 +*
the ra$e, /onse;+ently" *+nters and .ookmakers are !orkin1 !ith
the same data" and i) they .oth ado*t similar a**roa$hes to
sol&in1 the ra$e s+rely the *+nter m+st $ome o)) !orse in the lon1
r+n, 5 1ood e:am*le $on$erns the sele$tion method .ased on
time, orses !hi$h *rod+$e o+tstandin1 times are not as
*ro)ita.le to )ollo! as those !hi$h merely *rod+$e 1ood times
sin$e this )a$t is !idely re*orted and re)le$ted in s+.se;+ent
startin1 *ri$es, 5 1ood" .+t not re$ord .reakin1 time" is o)ten
o&erlooked .y .ookmakers and not in$or*orated into the *ri$e
assessment,
So ho! $an the *+nter make a *ro)itB Well" there are three
o*tions, 6he )irst re;+ires the *+nter to .e$ome so kno!led1ea.le
a.o+t horsera$in1 that hisDher assessment o) the tr+e *ro.a.ilities
is &astly s+*erior to the .ookmakers8" to .et only on-$o+rse
?a&oidin1 ta:@ and al!ays 1et the .est *ri$e, 6his is askin1 a 1reat
deal" .+t it is a$hie&a.le, 6he se$ond o*tion is to a$;+ire
in)ormation that is +nkno!n to the *+.li$ and .ookmakers, #or
instan$e" to kno! !hen a )an$ied horse is not tryin1, o!e&er" I
e:*e$t that s+$h in)ormation !o+ld not $ome $hea*ly, 6he third
o*tion is to ado*t a di))erent *ers*e$ti&e on ra$e analysis" and +se
in)ormation !hi$h is not normally $onsidered" to )orm alternati&e
sele$tion methods !hi$h ret+rn lon1 term *ro)its,
E&er many years I ha&e tried the )irst and se$ond a**roa$hes to
.a$kin1 horses" altho+1h re$ently I ha&e relied almost entirely on
the systemati$ a**roa$h, E$$asionally" tem*ted .y the so+nd
theoreti$al .asis o) $on&entional ra$e analysis" I attem*t to study
61
form, o!e&er" I +s+ally re1ret these la*ses,
Whether yo+ $hoose to ado*t a systemati$ a**roa$h to .ettin1 or
not I ho*e that yo+ ha&e )o+nd some !orth!hile material in this
te:t to in$or*orate into yo+r .ettin1 strate1ies,
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