You see it in hot, dusty and desper-

ate slums like Carrefour, where the

damage caused by the magnitude 7.0
quake is slowly dissolving into the ur-
ban decay caused by decades of abject
poverty.
Some see the widespread destruc-
tion as an opportunity for a historic re-
birth. Haiti, after all, was once the rich-
est French colony in the Americas
thanks to its sugar, coffee and indigo
dye industries.
But I wonder instead if these are the
final days of a country on its deathbed.
I have never witnessed the death of
a nation, but I would imagine that it
looks something like the trauma Haiti
is going through.
The way Haitians and foreign aid
workers describe it, the recent earth-
quake that brought the country to its
knees may just be the opening act.
Many more crushing blows could
strike later this year.
For starters, heavy rain will pelt the
island in the coming weeks. When
the rains come, the streets are like the
sea. Theres water everywhere, said
my driver, Mr Gean Sonny Lafable, 35.
The rain is expected to loosen and
bring down whatever buildings the
earthquake failed to destroy. The wa-
ters would also accelerate the spread
of diseases among an already
shell-shocked population.
And if the hurricane season be-
tween June and November turns out to
be as destructive as the ones in recent
years, all current efforts to provide
Haitians with temporary shelter and
clean water would be for naught.
In the face of all this, Haiti has no
functioning government or central au-
thority beyond the veneer of control
imposed by the massive United States
military presence.
Ordinary Haitians say they expect a
two-year wait before an election can
be held to pick a new government
that is, if public anger over the incom-
petence of the surviving leaders does
not explode into street violence and an-
archy.
All the ingredients for violence are
piling up day after day, Mr Marc
Bazin, a former Haitian prime minister
and presidential candidate, told The
Straits Times.
The government seems to be
counting on the international commu-
nity to keep the people quiet. But they
are wrong because beyond a certain
point, there is nothing. People will
come looking for (the Haitian lead-
ers).
What happens then? Would there
be a revolution? Will Haiti turn on it-
self in one final act of destruction?
We have seen traces of civilisa-
tions that have perished, added Mr
Bazin.
So if civilisations could die, then a
country could die as well. Its a horri-
ble scenario, but weve got to integrate
that scenario into whats possible.
Existential crisis
HAITI has been held back from a total
collapse thus far by the massive injec-
tion of international aid and the pres-
ence of about 20,000 US troops.
Many, however, wonder how long this
effort can be sustained.
Even though President Barack
Obama has pledged to mobilise every
element of (US) national capacity to
help Haiti, it is lost on no one that he
is already waging two expensive wars
in Iraq and Afghanistan, and strug-
gling to contain runaway government
spending.
Yet, it is a problem from which Mr
Obama cannot walk away.
A total collapse in Haiti would
prompt refugees to flood the US.
More worryingly perhaps, it could
turn Haiti into the Yemen or Somalia
of the Caribbean, a safe haven for ter-
rorist groups right on the doorstep of
America.
Some, including ordinary Haitians
themselves, have suggested that Wash-
ington should go all the way and take
over Haiti entirely. There is a histori-
cal precedence, given that the US occu-
pied Haiti between 1915 and 1934.
Haiti needs a strongman now,
said Mr Peter Doceis, 55, a street ven-
dor. The US should just take over. If
not, maybe China or Russia. We are
not afraid.
The more likely outcome, I suspect,
is one where Haiti languishes in an ex-
istential limbo: neither strong enough
to stand on its own feet nor strategical-
ly important enough to be swallowed
up by a major power.
It is an ignominious fate for a na-
tion that in 1804 became the first Lat-
in American country to gain independ-
ence, and the first to do so from a suc-
cessful slave revolt.
Haiti never gets a chance, said
Mr Chad Snyder, 33, an American mis-
sionary whose family ties with Haiti go
back 40 years. Every time things are
about to look up, bam, they are hit
with some new trouble. I didnt think
things could get any worse, but here
we are.
The crossroads
DESPITE all the despondency, Mr Aar-
on Nelson, a Haitian chef and evange-
list, is not about to give up just yet.
He is hoping to tap into the outpour-
ing of international goodwill to help
build a better future for the weakest
lot in Haitian society: the orphans.
On an empty 1.2ha plot of land in ru-
ral Gressier, a two-hour drive west of
the capital Port-au-Prince, he hopes
to build an orphanage for 200 chil-
dren, and eventually a school for about
400 students.
I chose this place because I want
the children to be far away from all the
craziness in the city, Mr Nelson said
on Jan 24 when he brought me and two
volunteers from a Singapore relief mis-
sion to the site of his dreams.
This is where I hope they realise
their aspirations. Maybe one day, the
president of Haiti will come from
here.
Realising this vision will not come
cheap. He has paid US$38,000
(S$53,400) for the plot of land, but
would need another US$400,000 just
to build the orphanage.
The Singapore volunteers from
non-profit organisation CityCare said
they would study Mr Nelsons plans to
see if they could help raise funds. Giv-
en the millions of dollars in donations
being raised for Haiti around the clock,
Mr Nelson will have no shortage of al-
ternative venues for funds as well.
While no one doubts that the out-
pouring of global compassion can be
channelled for positive projects like
Mr Nelsons, there are concerns none-
theless that it would worsen the atti-
tude of dependence that is already
prevalent in Haitian society.
Said Mr Snyder, the American mis-
sionary: Over the years, people keep
giving food and money but they dont
teach the Haitians how to do things for
themselves.
Now that you have aid and money
pouring in on such a large scale, Im
not sure how you are going to reverse
that mindset.
On a broader level, there are also
questions about how the hundreds of
millions of dollars pledged to Haiti
would eventually be administered.
Would the elite exploit the situation
for their own gain? Can the poor and
those without a voice in the political
system get a fair share?
Mr Bazin, the Haitian politician
who is also a World Bank expert on de-
velopment issues, said the country
needs to convene a major conference
where all the key actors can get togeth-
er to resolve these issues.
Unless we Haitians can sit togeth-
er and agree on the minimum that has
to be done, to reflect better the social
fabric, the money we are getting from
the international community is going
to go nowhere, he added.
People should be made aware that
we are going down the drain. We need
to get on another path, a better path.
But who would provide the leader-
ship at this crucial hour? So far none
of Haitis economic or political elite,
safely ensconced in their expensive
houses high above the ruins of
Port-au-Prince, has stepped forward.
There is widespread talk of a reli-
gious revival in Haiti following the dev-
astating earthquake. Perhaps the
churches will emerge as a new force in
Haitian politics.
Half of Haitis 9.8 million popula-
tion is under 20 years old, so maybe a
charismatic young man or woman will
rise up and answer the call.
There are many questions in Haiti
today, but few, if any, good answers.
It is fitting then that I spent my
week-long trip in a slum named Carre-
four, which in French means cross-
roads.
This long-suffering country has nev-
er been at a more critical juncture.
chinhon@sph.com.sg
BY CHUA CHIN HON
US BUREAU CHIEF
BRIEF HISTORY
Gained independence in 1804
after a successful slave revolt
against the French.
Oppressed by a long line of
dictators even after independence,
while repeated coups destabilised
the country further.
ECONOMY
The poorest country in the
Western hemisphere.
Economy shrank by 0.2 per cent
annually during the 1980s and by
0.4 per cent a year in the 1990s.
Has one of the highest rich-poor
gaps in the world. The richest
1 per cent own nearly half the
countrys wealth.
More than two-thirds of its
labour force do not have jobs.
POLITICS
Suffered 32 coups in its
200-year history.
The military was disbanded in
1994 to prevent further coups.
Remains unclear when the
country will be ready for fresh
elections.
POPULATION
Grew from five million to nine
million in recent decades despite a
shrinking economy.
Half the population is under the
age of 20, and illiterate.
Eight in 10 live in poverty.
HEALTH
More than half of Haitian
children are malnourished.
General population has limited
or no access to clean drinking
water.
About 5 per cent of adults
infected with HIV.
Source: World Bank, CIA World Factbook
Haiti has long been a tinderbox of socio-economic and
political tension. Some fear the recent earthquake might
ignite this explosive mix, and spark open violence and
anarchy. A quick glance at some key indicators:
2
/3 of labour force do not have a job
A labourer building a simple tomb in a cemetery on the outskirts of Port-au-Prince. A proper burial like this has become something of a luxury in
Haiti, given the massive death toll from the earthquake. Many bodies are being dumped into mass graves or remain buried under the rubble.
like a permanent haze. You smell
it in the air while walking past
collapsed buildings and houses,
under which dozens if not hun-
dreds of bodies remain buried
since the Jan 12 earthquake.
A child at the Notre Dame de la Nativite orphanage in Port-au-Prince last week. Generations of
Haitians will be shaped by how the country responds to this disaster. ST PHOTOS: CHUA CHIN HON
As Haiti tries to pick up the pieces after the devastating quake on
Jan 12, what lies ahead for the stricken Caribbean nation? A chance
for a historic rebirth or a country approaching its final days?
The Straits Times spent a week on the ground in Haiti.
Death looms
over Haiti
worldinternational

THE STRAITS TIMES MONDAY, FEBRUARY 1 2010 PAGE A14