GROUP 19

WEATHER RESEARCH
AND FORECASTING (WRF)
MODELING SYSTEM


By: Ganvendra Singh Chahar
2010ME10672





INTRODUCTION

City for experiment: Jaipur

Date: 4th 6th April, 2014

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) is a next-generation mesoscale numerical
weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric
research needs.

It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation
system, and a software architecture allowing for the computational parallelism and system
extensibility.

WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales ranging from meters to
thousands of kilometres.

RESULTS

Hours Time
(UTC)
Wind Speed (m/s) Sea Level
Pressure (hPa)
Relative Humidity Temperature at 2
m (
o
C)
Observed Model Observed Model Observed Model Observed Model
0 0 1.0 1.54 1010 968 65 31.43 21 22.6
3 3 - 0.47 - 969 - 46.68 - 24.7
6 6 2.04 2.05 1012 970 17 19.85 36 33.4
9 9 1.0 3.52 1009 967 18 15.76 38 36.2
12 12 1.5 1.98 1008 967 17 16.24 38 35.6
15 15 1.0 2.69 1009 967 35 28.13 30 29.0
18 18 1.0 2.84 1010 968 39 37.81 26 25.1
21 21 1.5 2.38 1009 968 36 45.44 26 23.0
24 0 1.5 1.28 1009 968 56 52.82 22 21.8
27 3 2.1 3.44 1011 968 44 45.32 28 26.2
30 6 1.02 2.94 1011 968 19 19.62 35 34.0
33 9 1.55 4.58 1009 967 13 13.55 40 36.8
36 12 1.55 4.69 1007 965 19 14.62 39 35.9
39 15 2.1 2.26 1009 965 37 23.78 30 29.0
42 18 2.1 3.31 1010 966 36 30.59 27 26.2
45 21 2.1 2.52 1009 967 28 39.63 28 24.5
48 0 1.0 2.36 1010 967 37 46.65 25 23.2
GRAPHS
1) Temperature


2) Relative Humidity



3) Sea Level Pressure



4) Wind Speed



INFERENCES
The Modelled Data Curve has somewhat the same shape and variation as the curve of the
Actual Weather Data obtained.
The simulation for the Wind Speed and Sea Level Pressure is not as accurate as for the other
parameters.
We can conclude that although WRF does give some idea about the actual weather
conditions, but some inaccuracy is present because of the nature of the forces we are dealing
with.

WEATHER PREDICTION
LIMITATIONS OF NUMERICAL MODELLING TECHNIQUES
Weather prediction on a mathematicalphysical basis proceeds as follows. In order to study
weather phenomena of a certain scale, we must construct a mathematical model by employing
the methods of scale analysis. The model is made deterministic by parameterising the
interactions with neighbouring scales in terms of available model variables. Since a general
parameterization theory is not yet
available, it is necessary to employ empirical knowledge to determine the parameter functions.
This procedure introduces nondeterministic elements into the prediction model. In order to
develop a global circulation model, for example, it would be necessary to parameterize the
interactions with the complete spectrum of the sub-synoptic processes. So far this problem has
not been solved satisfactorily.
In order to carry out short- and medium-range numerical weather forecasts, it is
necessary to initialize the model with consistent input data in order to integrate the predictive
system of differential equations forward in time. The field of the initial data may be obtained
with the help of an objective analysis. Various sophisticated methods have been devised in
order to make the observed data physically and computationally as consistent with the
numerical model as possible. Methods have been proposed for producing an objective analysis
by statistically extracting the maximum amount of information from observations,
climatologically data, spatial correlations between meteorological variables, and other available
data. This type of procedure, known as the optimum interpolation, requires knowledge of the
statistical structure of the fields of meteorological variables. Nevertheless, upon completion of
the objective analysis, mass and motion fields are still not precisely balanced.
Naturally, questions about the sensitivity of the weather-prediction model arise
due to uncertainties in the parameterized interaction with neighbouring scales, the
uncertainties in the initial conditions, and the particular properties of the numerical scheme.
WAYS TO IMPROVE PREDICTABILITY
Even if the initial conditions cannot be precisely known, from experience we have developed
some ideas about the most probable forms of the fields of variables describing the initial state
of the atmosphere. The typical operational forecast requires one field of initial data for each
variable with unknown errors. Instead of prescribing a single set of initial fields of the variables,
one prescribes a set of initial fields of variables by means of a probability distribution of initial
fields. Instead of a single forecast resulting from a single set of initial fields of the variables, a
great number of forecasts can be produced.
Any probability distribution may be characterized by the usual statistical measures:
expectation, variance, and higher moments. Thus we may describe the joint probability
distribution of the initial fields of variables by these statistical measures. Moreover, we may
also calculate the same statistical measures from the collection of the predicted fields. For
various times and spatial points the statistical measures of the predicted fields may be related
to the corresponding measures of the initial fields. The prediction of the statistical measures of
the variables is the core of the stochastic dynamic prediction. This forecasting procedure makes
it possible to extend the predictability horizon.