SOE 2011: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'

SRI LANKA
State of the Economy

2011

Policy Perspectives & Prospects

Theme:
Post-conflict Growth
and Recovery

INSTITUTE OF POLICY STUDIES IN SRI LANKA

1
Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2011
Policy Perspectives free download / e-version
1. Policy Perspectives
As the global economy begins the arduous road to
recovery, 'growth' has become the cornerstone for the
world's policy makers, be it the US policy on
'foundations for long term growth', UK's 'strategy for
economic growth' or Japan's 'new growth strategy'.
In this, Sri Lanka is no exception, setting itself an
ambitious medium term growth target in excess of 8
per cent per annum in the country's new post-conflict
environment. Indeed, Sri Lanka achieved it in 2010
with a strong economic rebound, amidst a steadily
improving macroeconomic environment. This was in
stark contrast to the experience a mere two years ago,
when economic performance was at best erratic, with
unacceptably high inflation and dwindling foreign
exchange reserves. In 2010, Sri Lanka posted a record
high of US$ 6.6 billion in official reserves, a moderate
inflation rate of 5.9 per cent and a stable exchange
rate for much of the year. The remarkable turnaround
owes much to a renewed confidence in the country's
long term economic prospects, reinforced by policy
and political stability from a strong incumbent
government.
Amidst the strong recovery and seemingly bright
medium term prospects for the Sri Lankan economy,
there are, nevertheless, some concerns about specific
aspects of the country's recent economic performance.
The relatively weak recovery of private investment to
take advantage of the country's new stability has been
one such area. Growth in private sector credit
disbursement was slow to pick up, as has been inflows
of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the country.
Private sector credit growth was sluggish for much of
2010, picking up only towards the latter months of
the year, while net FDI inflows saw only a mild
recovery at US$ 435 million as against US$ 385 in
the crisis-ridden year of 2009. As in the previous year,
it was buoyant public investment that kept Sri Lanka's
growth momentum moving to allow the country to
reach a GDP growth of 8 per cent.
For Sri Lanka, emerging

from a costly era of a
long drawn conflict,
rising socio-economic
aspirations must be met
to help restore and
cement social harmony
in its post-conflict
development efforts
2
The sources of economic growth are
obviously important, but there has never
been clear agreement on what drives growth.
Indeed development thought is littered with
changing beliefs about what the best policies
are to ensure rapid growth. During the 1980s,
there was a seismic shift to focus on markets,
prices, and incentives. These called for
raising investment as high as possible,
especially into industry; reducing fiscal
imbalances through 'structural adjustment';
and 'getting prices right' in the process. In
the 1990s, the policy prescriptions became
more arduous, asking countries to go beyond
a mere 'strengthening of the market'. They
required countries to strengthen public
institutions by reducing corruption and
improving the rule of law; to introduce
incentives and actions for private sector
development to 'cut costs of doing business';
to improve education and skills of its labour
force; to upgrade technology, etc.
Whatever the merits of changing agendas,
economic theory does suggest that a sustained
increase in investment raises the economy's
growth rate - albeit temporarily - while more
sophisticated models suggest that bringing
improvements in productivity, notably due
to innovation and to investments in human
capital, allows growth to be enhanced in a
more sustainable fashion. In this respect, Sri
Lanka's public investment drive that is
heavily tilted towards improving physical
infrastructure capital in the country will no
doubt provide a useful initial boost to
growth. But, the longer term sustainability
of that growth momentum can only be
ensured with appropriate investment in
technology, knowledge transfer, etc. Here,
private sector investment, and FDI
especially, has a particularly important role
to play.
Private sector credit growth was relatively
slow to take-off despite the new resilience
and faster growth in the Sri Lankan economy
from mid-2009. Credit growth picked up only
towards the second half of 2010 to record
an overall healthy growth of 25 per cent by
year end - albeit on the back of a growth of
7 per cent in 2008 and contraction of 5.8
per cent in 2009. The reasons for the slow
recovery in credit growth to the private sector
in the Sri Lankan context are not entirely
clear, although a similar global phenomenon
is easier to understand. In a recessionary
economic environment that follows from a
financial crisis - such as the global economic
downturn of 2008/09 - weak credit growth
is to be expected as households and firms
reduce their debt burdens. Whilst Sri Lanka
was not unduly affected by the global
financial crisis, the economy went through
its own financial turmoil amidst an
environment of excessive credit growth
during 2005-07. It saw not only the
unravelling of some important financial
organizations and illegal 'ponzi schemes',
but over-leveraging of households and firms.
The average gross non-performing lending
(NPL) ratio of the banking sector, for instance,
jumped as a result from 5 per cent in 2007
to 8.5 per cent in 2009. It could also have
been that the corporate sector had retained
profits for re-investment purposes.
Overall, Sri Lanka's experience suggests that
both supply and demand factors played a
role in muting private sector investment
appetite. Despite the signs of an early
economic recovery, over-leveraged
households and firms were less willing to
borrow while banks too were less willing to
lend. Indeed, the economic downturn
spurred increased savings by the private
sector. Under the circumstances, the Central
Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) acted aggressively
to cut policy interest rates and used other
means to convince banks to lower their
lending rates, including setting mandatory
measures. On the whole, these had only
limited impacts. Therefore, it is not
surprising that as households and firms pay
3
back debts, cheaper credit was likely to
provide less of a stimulus than at other
times.
For private investors, other avenues to make
short term financial gains were clearly
available, not least through a booming
domestic stock market. Sri Lanka's bourse
gained by over 95 per cent in 2010, to
become the second best performer on a
global scale for a second consecutive year.
While renewed investor confidence in the
long term prospects of the economy no
doubt played a part, the gains were also
driven to a large extent by speculative trading
that compelled the regulators to step in. The
relatively low returns from fixed income
assets also played a role in channelling funds
to the share market. For banks, the
government debt securities continued to
provide a healthy return at zero risk, negating
any urgent need to seek out riskier corporate
and household borrowers.
To an extent, the subdued private sector
appetite to expand factories and invest in
new machinery through credit from the
banking system was perhaps a mixed
blessing. If private sector credit growth had
kicked off at a rapid pace, the government's
own fiscal excesses - albeit a much improved
outcome relative to that of the previous year
- could not have been accommodated
without igniting destabilizing consequences.
Sri Lanka's fiscal deficit of 7.9 per cent of
GDP in 2010 was financed through domestic
borrowing of 3.6 per cent of GDP. Given
that the private sector was in effect not
competing for funds, the government was
able to successfully retain a low inflation
and interest rate regime despite fiscal
pressures and a rapid recovery in economic
activities.
However, the government's stance on deficit
financing - i.e., limiting reliance on domestic
sources of finance - in its attempt to retain a
relaxed monetary policy stance to spur growth
can prove to be double-edged. It necessarily
raises Sri Lanka's reliance on foreign financing
to meet the country's growing public
investment needs. The repeated calls for
fiscal consolidation efforts stem from a
recognition of the potential medium to long
term risks that arise from rising exposure to
external debt.
The dominant source of deficit financing in
recent years has been foreign currency
denominated borrowing. In 2009, foreign
financing stood at 4.8 per cent of GDP and
declined only marginally to 4.4 per cent in
2010. The greater country risk exposure that
is associated with foreign currency debt -
sensitivities to sovereign ratings in the event
of debt roll-over, exchange rate risks, etc. -
are well known. Sri Lanka's external debt
to GDP ratio, however, has remained
unchanged for the most part; in fact, it
declined from 36.5 per cent in 2009 to 36.1
per cent in 2010. Movements in the exchange
rate have a clear bearing on external debt
indicators. An appreciating currency, as was
the experience of the rupee in 2010, helps
to improve fiscal indicators by lowering the
external debt to GDP ratio.
Notwithstanding the overall figures, the
composition of the debt matters. Here, Sri
Lanka has seen a rapid change in its external
debt structure with non-concessional and
commercial sources raising their share from
7.3 per cent in 2006 to 37.5 per cent in
2010. These are costlier sources of foreign
finance, and not surprisingly, the country's
overall external debt service ratio has crept
up over the period from an annual average
of 12 per cent during 2002-04 to 16.4 per
cent over 2008-10. To make certain that
future external debt service payments can
be met comfortably and limit the country's
exposure to unanticipated external shocks,
Sri Lanka must ensure that its foreign
exchange earnings remain strong. As a first
4
step, a prudent course is to limit foreign
currency borrowing to projects that will,
either directly or indirectly, enhance the
foreign exchange needed to service future
payments.
Ongoing developments in the industrialized
economies offer a salutary lesson and a
necessary reminder of the choices available
to governments. Economic growth can be
given a short term boost by fiscal and/or
monetary policy stimulus, but at the risk of
worsening long term debt problems.
Alternatively, a more cautious approach on
fiscal austerity can damage growth in the
short term, and indeed incur electoral
unpopularity along the way. For Sri Lanka,
the current Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) with
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
provided an external anchor, underscoring
the government's fiscal and monetary
framework. As the IMF programme ends in
2012, Sri Lanka will have not only a healthier
economy and stronger public finances, but
also the necessary 'political space' to
consolidate public finances in the absence
of major electoral imperatives.
In view of the above concerns, it is
encouraging that the overall fiscal outcomes
in 2010 are positive. The deficit was reduced
from 9.9 per cent of GDP in 2009 to 7.9 per
cent in 2010 and looks set to be reduced
further to under 7 per cent in 2011. This is,
of course, not to imply that low fiscal targets
per se are always desirable or appropriate.
Arguably, Sri Lanka's expansionary fiscal
policy stance of 2009 in the midst of a sharp
economic downturn and domestic socio-
political imperatives stemming from
immediate rehabilitation needs of a war
weary population could be justified.
Without such a fiscal stimulus to the
economy, the private sector's reluctance to
undertake investment would have depressed
economic activity even further than the 3.5
per cent growth recorded in 2009. Rather
than adopt a dogmatic approach to fiscal
targets, what is needed is a clear
understanding that sound public finances
allows a country the necessary leeway to
respond appropriately to emerging domestic
and/or external shocks. In the circumstances,
what Sri Lanka needs to do first of all is to
lower its deficit to a manageable level that
will, over time, reduce the country's debt
overhang; that in turn will release 'fiscal
space' to respond appropriately to context-
specific needs of the country through fiscal
and/or monetary policy measures.
In this context, Sri Lanka's near term fiscal
consolidation plans appear to be reasonable.
In 2010, expenditure as a percentage of GDP
was lowered to 22.9 per cent of GDP,
primarily through rationalization of current
expenditures. Encouragingly, capital
expenditures remained more or less in line
with budget forecasts. There is ample
evidence to suggest that fiscal consolidation
efforts via spending cuts rather than tax
increases are more likely to support medium
term growth prospects. This, the government
has attempted to do through cuts in current
expenditure, while supporting a higher rate
of capital expenditure. Moreover,
expenditure rationalization is being
accompanied by fresh efforts to generate
additional revenues by way of tax reforms
on the basis of the recommendations of a
Presidential Commission on Taxation. Tax
reforms appear to be aimed at raising taxes
on consumption and property rather than on
income or savings. Taxing the former is less
harmful to growth than taxing the latter.
Fiscal policy has clear implications not only
for sustained high growth, but also in relation
to the distributional impacts of such growth.
For instance, Sri Lanka's current focus on
public infrastructure is found to be
concentrated heavily on the construction of
roads, ports, airports, etc. By contrast, capital
investment in education and health which
5
stood at 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2006 had
declined to 0.6 per cent by 2010. The tight
fiscal constraints within which the
government is attempting to achieve a host
of complex objectives are clear. Perhaps,
most importantly it also serves to underline
the necessity for placing Sri Lanka's public
finances on a sounder footing as an
immediate priority.
The consolidation of public finances will
also help in setting monetary and exchange
rate policy that will support long term growth
objectives. Indeed, any adverse impact of
fiscal tightening on output growth can be
offset to an extent by monetary easing. This
is what Sri Lanka did in 2010, although with
limited results in stimulating private sector
credit growth. However, despite a largely
benevolent inflationary environment in 2010,
there can be emerging threats to price
stability. Thus, monetary policy should not
sow the seeds of raising inflation
expectations even as fiscal consolidation
efforts bear results. Sri Lanka's potential
growth rate without a risk of overheating can
only be guessed at, but stability has its own
rewards by providing a stable, predictable
macroeconomic environment in which
businesses could flourish. The costs of
higher, and possibly more volatile, inflation
would outweigh any output gains from
excessive monetary easing. It is also the poor
who ultimately suffer the most from price
inflation, negating efforts to ensure equitable
benefits of growth; the poor, unlike workers
in formal employment, have limited options
to defend themselves against inflation.
Sri Lanka's rate of inflation has been rising
incrementally from the last quarter of 2010,
primarily on account of rising food prices
following inclement weather conditions.
Political turmoil in some key oil exporting
countries has also mounted rising pressures
on international oil prices. Such supply-side
price shocks will have inevitable one-off
impacts on inflation. Standard monetary
policy responses to contain supply-side
induced inflation are not effective
and alternative interventions through
administered price controls and tax measures
were adopted. There is, however, the threat
that food and fuel price increases will be
absorbed into the general inflationary
pressures via wage increases, even as a
recovery in credit growth to the private sector
is anticipated to quicken and add to
inflationary pressure on the demand-side.
Thus, the CBSL has to be extra vigilant to
identify emerging channels of inflationary
pressure and respond appropriately. Excess
rupee liquidity in the market - estimated at
Rs. 120-130 billion even by early 2011 -
has been a potential source of inflationary
pressure for most of 2010. A sharp increase
in short term foreign investment inflows to
the government debt securities market, and
perhaps more critically, high volumes of
government foreign currency denominated
borrowing injected significant foreign
currency surpluses into the country. These
inflows have been supplemented by better-
than-average inflows of worker remittances
and tourism receipts in the post-2009 setting.
With the CBSL stepping in to mop up capital
inflows and prevent the currency from
appreciating unduly, a contributory outcome
has been the expansion of the domestic
monetary base. Rather than work through a
pricing mechanism - raising policy rates -
the CBSL opted to work through a quantity
mechanism - employing regulatory measures
such as an increase in the Statutory Reserve
Requirement (SSR) of commercial banks
from 7 per cent to 8 per cent in April 2011.
This is a crude, but often effective
mechanism to absorb excess liquidity if
pursued with sufficient vigour. Its
effectiveness in curtailing inflationary
pressure will depend on levels of excess
liquidity and demand for credit.
6
While excess rupee liquidity had dropped
to under Rs. 70 billion by the end of the
first quarter of 2011, with annual inflation
at 6.6 per cent by April 2011, the inflationary
consequences of an expanding monetary base
cannot be ignored. There are few signs to
suggest that capital inflows will ease in the
near term. Sri Lanka issued a second
Sovereign bond for US$ 1 billion in July
2011, following the issue of the first US$ 1
billion Sovereign bond in October 2010.
Large volumes of foreign capital inflows may
be viewed as a sign of the country's renewed
economic prospects and as evidence of good
investment opportunities, but there are also
other, less palatable implications for the
economy. The manner in which current
account deficits are funded matter; the bulk
of capital inflows have come not from
current demand for Sri Lanka's goods and
services, but rather as a result of capital
account transactions that are tilted heavily
towards government foreign currency
denominated borrowing. Such developments
have both short and long term implications
regarding the health of a country's external
payments position.
Large net capital inflows also have
immediate short term impacts. They
inevitably exert upward pressure on a
country's exchange rate. The Sri Lankan rupee
appreciated by 3 per cent against the US$ in
nominal terms in spite of heavy intervention
by the CBSL in the foreign exchange market.
An appreciation of the real exchange rate,
as has been occurring vis--vis a basket of
trading partner currencies, makes Sri Lankan
exports less competitive in international
markets. There will, of course, be heavily
import dependent export products that will
gain a price advantage through cheaper
imported inputs. A stronger rupee will also
help to curb inflation, especially in the face
of rising international commodity prices.
However, in the midst of a significant drop
in the ratio of exports to GDP in recent years
- from 28 per cent in 2004 to 16.7 per cent
in 2010 - Sri Lanka cannot be complacent
about the need to push for higher foreign
exchange earnings in the midst of a heavier
exposure to external debt repayments in the
long term. The drop in the exports-to-GDP
ratio despite an increase in absolute dollar
terms suggests that the higher growth
momentum Sri Lanka has been seeing more
recently is driven less by an export-push and
more by other factors, such as the higher
public investment drive in infrastructure, etc.
However, given the very limited domestic
market, sustained high growth can only be
achieved if Sri Lanka raises foreign demand
for the country's goods and services.
Thus, the details of macroeconomic policy
management as outlined above matter for
long term growth. They also matter if growth
is to be accompanied by social progress in
the country. For instance, sustained growth
can help poverty alleviation by not only
pulling the poor up into gainful
employment, but also by providing larger
volumes of revenue to finance targeted social
programmes. On the face of it, Sri Lanka
appears to have made significant strides in
tackling overall poverty in the country and
reducing emerging gaps between sectors of
the economy. The Household and Income
Expenditure Survey (HIES) carried out by the
Department of Census and Statistics (DCS)
appears to suggest that the poverty headcount
index has dropped from 15.2 per cent in
2006/07 to around 8.9 per cent by 2009/10.
The most promising is the suggestion that
the gap between urban, rural and estate
sectors have narrowed in the interim. The
results on overall poverty reduction efforts
are surprising in view of high price instability
that was experienced in the interim years
and the economic downturn experienced in
2009. However, the narrowing of inequity
between sectors may not be so surprising
7
given the emphasis placed on bridging urban-
rural gaps in the government's development
thrust since 2005, primarily in infrastructure
spending and support to the agrarian sector.
Despite the overall narrowing of imbalances,
inequities in access to gainful economic
opportunities - across different dimensions
such as gender, geographic location, sector,
ethnicity, etc. - continue to persist. Policies
to address these become all the more
important in the context of post-conflict
reconciliation efforts.
As recently experienced across the world,
an inequitable distribution of wealth creates
a higher degree of economic insecurity that
can often spill over into social unrest during
times of acute crisis. Indeed, the global
economic turmoil and rising food prices have
seen many countries grappling with renewed
socio-political tensions. Thus, even as the
global economy recovers from a debilitating
economic contraction and swelling numbers
of unemployed in developed countries,
renewed attention is being paid to the issue
of inequality. While the gap in wealth
between developed and developing
countries is narrowing - a result of the latter
group growing faster on average than the
former - concerns about the chasm between
the rich and poor within countries remain.
As Sri Lanka prepares for a spell of rapid
growth in the coming years, this may
inevitably bring social problems to contend
with as well, unless issues of equity are
addressed at the outset. The push for higher
growth is often accompanied by
technological progress. This can raise the
relative demand for skilled workers. When
the supply of skilled workers fails to keep
pace with demand, which is often the case,
it can lead to a widening wage gap between
skilled and unskilled workers. If, as
anticipated, Sri Lanka's economic growth
becomes increasingly driven by a higher
skilled services sector in the coming years,
widening wage gaps can emerge.
Additionally, as more and more employment
is created in the contractual/informal sectors
- where limited incentives are present for
employers or the self-employed to invest in
training, the lack of skills development can
exacerbate structural rigidities in the labour
market. Often the most vulnerable segments
will be unskilled, female labour.
While there is broad consensus that
economic growth is vital for development,
it is also recognized that growth alone is
not the be-all and end-all of development.
In this context, the notion of economic
growth that is both sustainable and inclusive
becomes an important policy imperative for
governments. While these are often
fashionable lexicons in policy documents,
country-specific contexts demand that they
are not ignored. For Sri Lanka, emerging from
a costly era of a long drawn conflict, rising
socio-economic aspirations must be met to
help restore and cement social harmony in
its post-conflict development efforts. That
calls for economic policies that will not only
deliver broad-based rapid growth, but
policies that are also sensitive to issues of
equity in the distribution of, and access to,
resources.
This year's State of the Economy report takes
as its central theme the notion of 'Post-
conflict Growth: Making it Inclusive to
understand the myriad channels through
which growth is accompanied by reduction
in inequalities. Besides the desirability of
inclusive growth from a purely ethical
standpoint, from a more practical perspective,
inclusiveness is needed for sustaining
economic growth, as exclusion leads to
underemployment of productive resources
that restricts growth.
Access to productive employment is a critical
element to drive inclusive growth. It requires
improving employability of workers on the
8
one hand and improving access to productive
employment opportunities, on the other. On
the supply side, improving employability
involves access to good quality health,
education and other productive assets. On
the demand side, improving access to
employment requires opening up
opportunities in various sectors of the
economy in different geographic regions
and for diverse types of workers. Initial
conditions in an economy -- such as levels
of poverty and inequality, as well as other
exogenous factors such as geography,
demography, climate, governance, politics,
social considerations and the policy
environment - will also play an important
role in determining the subsequent growth
outcomes. In this context, the rest of this
report examines the imperatives for inclusive
growth in Sri Lanka across a spectrum of
policy areas through a series of chapters and
policy discussions.
i
m%;sm;a;suh oDIafldaK
oe:_c q:occ ccocec De o: _eco
e:oeccc qOco D q:c ooca, ec:_a
eOoac o: O caec c cc c
cacoc c c cc c c oo: q:oc eOoac
o: ccc cacoc cccccc oo: q:oc
eOoac o: ccc o:c:aoc coe:c:c
oo: cc:aoc 'aO eOoa coe:c:c oo: oDO:
o_: coc c c cc c 8c:cc a oe c :a
cce`:O D q:coc ''cOc c. oeo a
_ec:O :o:o c_ oa:o:c qco e:c 8c:o
cc Ooca c O _:O aO O:c:Ooc c _
eoc: _ a Oaoca 8 cc O:D Ooa
qac:ccc qccooea co7. q:cc Oaocae,
cc a _ec:O 20!0 :c e:c coec oc :Do_
Ooac Oa :oO q:oc coocc c _
qaoccec q:oc ccc_ qcoOa c7cc.
oec, c _ e:a ec co8 qe:o: _ eac o: Do a
Da ec eDc qc oOa c:Oc cc Occ c _
q:oc c:oc :ac c:ec qDecO c:Oc
@c oc oOoc Oc: 8coocae oOa
c. 20!0 a _ec:oD a_ eDc, O:oc:ec o_
ccc cac oc:_o _ca o.o c ODa:cec
ocaa8 c_ qco oec _eac 8aoca
o.0 c eoc ccOcc O qco qOo:o O:D
c:_cc c o: Da ec qa c:ccc o:oO
c:Ococc. _coc_:cc occc cccccec
o: ec:_a c:Ooc:Oc ec oe:ca:ea oo0
e c:_ a q:oc 8c:Dc:Oa 8a oca
q:cO aOe _:oc:oo:cc oococ:coea oec
:_cc cc coOoca q:cD co7.
accec o_ q:ococa oe:ccoea qaco:O
a _ec:oD q:occ 8aoca Do:e:a O
eoe ce:oc qocce:Oa qco oco aec
a _ec:oD q:oc c:oc :aoc Doaec qea
c_O qO:ac oc:eD q:c q:c:8 O:ec
co: oD. oo0 qcaOoca q:cO c:OocOc
c_a coc:ca e:ae o: :occec Oaoca
c: _oO_ o_ ocse_c q:oc:ca ocDe
c_ cc oce c cc . Do a c c q:oc: ca
oeocc e_: ca c oa qco ocs e_ c qeaoc
c Dc8 O_ cecc eae:@ Dc. ocse_c
qeaoc c8O_ c ec c 20!0 Ooeoc O:D
c:_cc c_ q_ Oc :cO qco 20!0 qace
e: ea:O c _ cec Ooac oca a 8 co_ c.
c qco 2000 qo c:_e:O c_ oeocc _:
c Dc8 q:oc:ca ce:c O c. c. oc:_o
_ca 88o ee _c: _a c_ 20!0 Ooeoc
oeocc _:a c q:oc:ca o_ O:oc:ec O
c. c. oc:_o 48o c_a ocaa8 coaoa :e:ao
c ec cc . c e c Ooeoc oea _ o a c
a e c: coc 8 c Ooacc co: _c:Dec
oeocc o:cOoc o:co qeac Da _coa _
c_8 q:oc:ca oococ:c oeac.
q:oc c oD c cOca c:o:_ Oe O:ec c O:
Oa aec cO oeoocOaoa ceca caa
c_O c:o:_ cccc:Occ oa:e:c. !080
acc c_ oO_oc:_ _ea o: oe:aD8
qO:oc ocooa Da:_ o_ Dc:a D8
_Dc. o8O:ca c:aa:oea qOaoc:Occ a8
Doaeocae coe:ac oOaoOa o:cco8 Da:_
q:oc:ca _coe, Ooo:cec e:_c8 _coe
ooo: e_o qec_cc:Oca qccoe, o cc
c c:O_ c c _ a O:oo_ _ q:c c oe ca
co: c. ocO_ 8a oca o _o_
oO_oc:_ accec cooea i7c ca o_
aooa ocooa cccccec oc:ca: _coe
!000 _eco c:occc Dc. q:oc:ca qcoc:c
a c c _e:a D8 O:Dc c oe c _ a o:co
q:cca accec coe, Oo:c:o Deoco coO:c
coc oo_ e o: oe:a D8 o: c8c8
cc:e:oe o_aO:e, Occ ae_c:oc :ae
Ooac coe o: o:cc:Oa O:Dc coe_
c:cec o_ a:eDe ca:c ocO_ D a
_c_ ccO cO:ca oc:ca: Dc.
oOaOa ao:ccc a: qcOa O: cec OO,
q:oc: ca 8a oca Oa c o:o q:oc: caca o
O:DDe c _ a q:ococ Ooa qa c:cc
c:Oc:_c Oaoca o_ a:eoOa qco Oc:c e
c q:oaca oea oc: ca: ocooa oa ,
'Policy Perspectives' (Translation - Sinhala) free download / e-version

State of the Economy 2011
ii
c_: c c: O 8a oca Doa eoca e
aoO:cc:a o: e:aO c:eac 8aoca
ocooa q:oc: ca, eOoac Oc:c c o:o
o:cccc oea coeo _: cc:Oa q:ccoa
Oc . o8 qa O _a c_ ocsc c cDc_
c:eac O:Dc coe ocooo a:io: O a
_ec:oD o:co q:oc:ca coae c_a a:cOe,
eOoac oOa oOa c oc: caOc c :o8cc
cOcc _:oa O c O ea:c. cooc cc
eOoa oDeoc ec:_a co:oO occ
c_ o:coc c:cec, :ae oOe:o:O q:c
oOa oOa a q:c:ooca ocooa q:oc: ca ee a
cec. oeo ocse_c qeaoc q:oc:ca o
oOoae c Doac q:oc:ca c_a cDc
c c O:ec c:oc c:occ q:c. 2000 e: c:eoc
c a _ec:oD q:ococ aO aeoa _ Oc:Occ
o oDeOc eOoacc _oOa coa D
ae _ :oc cecO ocs e_ c qeaoc c8
Ooac _Ooc oa. c Ooac o_ eoc
20!0 Ooeoc cc:ec cO: cec O qco
Ooec qO:ac OaDc 2o c cocc Ooa
c Oac:Oc oca a 8 co_ c. 2008 Ooeoc
Ooac 7 c O qco 2000 Ooeoc o.8 ca
eoc:Oac Dc.
a _ec:O 8a oca ec c_ ocs e_ c qeaoc
c c _ O q:c O c :ec oo c O
8coocae c:o:_ a:c aec oc qao:c
oe:_c ea oco:8 e:ae coc. e_o
qocca c7cO q:cOaa:O 2008/2000
q:cO oe:_c q:oc c:e O:a qOc:cec)
O:c:Oocc c_ cO_O_ o: e:e8O_ co
qc Oa ooc a c Ooaoc o aDec qoc ce:c_
o:cc. oe:_c q:oc qoc a: a _ec:Oc
qaOao o_ _c:ec q:coa:O qco, 200o-
2007 c:_c c_ qco:c o_ c Ooac
Do8 coocc c_ oeoc q:occ ceaoee
e_o qoccc eo c:oDc. o8 c:_c c_
q:c:8 O:ec e_o:cca 8aoca o: ac
Doo: 'Ponzi' O:a e_o c:O:o8 c_ e:c
cO _ o: e:e8 8a oca O qco:c
_coc:_a e:c ao:coc coe o8 c:_c
c_ _Dc. _:oocc Oaoca 2007 o c
O :ec qeaoca c oa:o8 cOac:O oeo
c c c_cc Oaoca 2000 8.o c O: o_
eocc. oec _Oaac q:coc ec:ec qeac
Da ce _:c cc q:oc:ca c:occa o:
oO: e:ae a: Dc o:c.
eccc Oaoca ecc_ a _ec:oD qc:c8
O_ a c:o:_ Oa oa :cc e o: _ _e ca :c
D a ocs e_ c qeaoc q:oc: ca qc _:ec
eac cooeo_: c:occ:occ cc_ cc Oc.
a _o: c:_oc q:occ c coc ec Do8 ee
_c coa D ae_ _coc:_ac O cO_ o
e:e8 c e:aec cco8 _aa_Oc :cOoc
a:c qco :ec c ec :c O oc qc
c:e:ccc. q:cc Oaocae q:oc qOc:coc
c c c_cc Oaoca ocs e_ c qeaoc O:D
O:Doca c oc o8 O_c a:i o:Oc q:c Dc. oee
cc Oca ccoc a _ec: eo:ec O :D
c c:e:oeccc qOc o oOa c c cc c ec
oc:_ qace:ca qccoec oeae oOac ce
oc::eaa :ec O_c ccc e:aDec _c:o
ecoc iOaoe c oc:_ qac:ccca qc c_
c c Oc qa O:oc oc:a o c:aDe ee a .
eccc Oaoca ecc_ oeca q:cO _c:8
e: oc Dc. c:Da cO_ o e:e8 Da
c q:c oeDe c_ecc co:c oa:Oa qco
oOac qOc:O_c Oc: qc oc:_ qac:c ccoc
oa_a c c_a :_a _coccac qcDc.
ocs e_ c q:oc: ccca 8a oca ec c_
o_ ca oac oO_oc:_ ooo: oa:O ocD
c:_a e_o O: _:e:ao8 e:oe iOac ca.
oe:_c co:aoc 0o O:D e0cec _c:oOa
oO:a Oocc a _ec:O o_: coc oO:a c a c
oc:c oO_oc:_ Oc ccD co7.
qococ e c:_ a o:c c: ac c a c _ O
q:oc: ccca c _ qc O Da O:c a :cOe
cc8 c:occ:occ cc_ qco eocce
oO_:8 c_a c: Da:_ qcoa _a _ _:c
oococ:coea ac:eac coo8 qOaoc:Occ
c:a a:e a . c:Oo q::c8 Oc c8 c _ a
:occe Oaoca _:a qc _:c oococ:c oea
oc:c oO_ oc:_c qoe _ oc:e oco:a . :ec
8a oca ec c_ a ao qO:aec o cO
ococ oc8 cc c_a qccO cocc cc_:c
_:7a. ec:ec o: eo c e:a8 Oc:c
qO:a8 Ooca iOa e:a qocce: c:7ec _
oa:O a .
'Policy Perspectives' free download / e-version
Policy Perspectives
iii
cc co: c e:ccc :ec c c c ooo:
coe:aca:_: c_ coe o: aO cacc o:
q:oc: cac c oe c O ocs e_ c qeaoc
qoc ce: Oa qc D c: e q:c:8Dc a c
q:aoO:cc Dc o:cc. ocse_c qeaoc c
Ooac oDeOcO q:o8c D oa:ca a8 ococ
q:oc cc Oc q c:Oo Do8 c c Dc:cca c
ccoa:oa o cc Ooecc :occecO occc
e_o qcoccca q:c oa:Oaac c7a. 20!0 a
_ec:oD _ oac aec:coca 7.0 c O e_o
o ccc o a c c e:a 8 O_ a _ o a c
aec:coca 8.o c) e_o 8c:ac ocoa.
ocs e_ c qeaoc qoe _ o: q:c c Oaoca e
coc oa:c oo8 ccOcc c _ e _o c ca o:
q:oc cc:c:oc8 ccocec oOa c7c
O O _ ea qa c:cc o: oc:_ qa c:cc
qcoOa cOcO: e:aec o:cDc.
oco aec eOoac cDa8 coe o: _o_
e_ cccccec c:Oocc cOcO:e:ae o:
O ococ cccaoc oac e_o ccOca ec
c:ce e: coe oc:ccce c:coeac o:c
ccc Dc o:cc. oeoc O:DOa o:co q:oc:ca
O Oea:Oa c oe: e o: Do a c e _
8c: ac ec Da O: c c:7e cc a
qaO:ococae O:Docoo. O:D O:Doca Doac
c _: e:a e oo c oc:c oea c a :
q:c Oa a:O eoc:_ a Oaoca o: e c:_ a
Oaoca :oec _Oa a:O qO:a8 oec
ccOca ooo: e_o c:OocOc o: ccca
:oo8 qOaoc:Oca oa:ccO: q:coD.
e:c qOo:_O_ e_o occ:Ocao e_ococ
_O c:a e:oec Ooc Doac OoOoo e_a
c _: e:a ec. 2000 Ooeoc Do a c
e_ococ _ oac aec:coca 4.8 c O
qco 20!0 OaDc Do a c e _ococ c qc oa
4.4 cO: coc O:ca. Doa OoOoo e_a
c e:a e a : occ e o c:a _a Oc:c Da:_
qO:a8 ca8 c oeDe o: c_e:ae O:a
qOc:Oao oacO8 qac:ccac eoDD8,
Daec qac:cc qO:a8 q:c ccc oO_ oD.
_ oac aec:coc qac:ccc a _ec:oD
Do a c c e: 8 o:oo: c:_cc c _
oa:oOaO c:Oca. q:cc Oaocae 2000
8o.o c O c:Oc cc 20!0 8o.! cO: coc
O:ca. Dec qac:cccao eO_ac Doac
c oac ocooo c:o:_ _c:ec q:ccoc.
qec O:DOa OoOo:o e _c a 20!0 _:
o:cco_ qc:c8 qaO _ oac aec:ccc
qaO Doa c qcD e_o oac O:Dc Dec
ec c:o. oeo a _ec:O qaeoa_ oa:Oa
o O:c ccOcaoea :oo Oaoca _:ec
c Oooc, _O oDeOc oOac8 qc:c q:c
qco 200o Ooeoc cc c c e:oc oc:c 7.8
c Oaoca 20!0 Ooeoc cc 87.o Oaoca
o_ oe: q:c. Do a c e _o 8c:a
Deoco o8O: qc coO:cc :oec _Oa
e _:a ca c. cO o8 qa O _c: :_ o8
Doac c q:c oeDo8 qac:cc 2002-04
c:_c c_ !2 c O:oec :e:aocc c 2008-
!0 c:_c c_ !o.4 c :e:aocc cO: O:DDe
c_ecc co:c oa:oD. ooc Doac c
q:c oeD8 coe qo:Oca oc:oDec oeae
qaoccec :oo c8cacac oe:_o:De e:
coec a8 a _ec:oD Doa Daec cc8 cO
oo: OcO O:D Dec ccoa q:c:ooca Oo:cc
o: Do a c _:e:a e e:c oe o:
oe:Oo cc:e:oecc e:ae qOao oD.
c:ococ O q:occa o _Oa a:O
eOoaca c_a @c ce c:cec o occac
oc:o:e:aec q:c o c_O oc:Oec
:coc . e _o o/oo: e _ c c cc c ec
_c oc cacc ee a q: oc eOoac
ocDc:_aO o_ a:eDc o:cc. cooc cca
ec:_a c c_ e:c Oc:c aoc qcc
coOocac Do8 qO: aec c c _ cOc .
Dc_cec Oaoca_ e_o Daec 8aoca
Oc:c c oD8 o c c oDecc a ocDc:_ a
Oaoca Ooacc o:a Dc o:c qco q:cc
Oaoca e o ac:_aec Oaoca ca qc cc:Occ
q:c oD. a _ec:O 8a oca ec c_ a
_ec:oD o:co e_o o: e_ cc:o:eO c_
:_c_ec oOa c:coaco e_o qoe_ ee
:ac cOcO:oea ca _a @cc DD:a
ee a :o o q::occa _a _: c o7.
c:coa co e _o qoe o_ O:ccoa 20!2
qOa Oa qOc:O OaDc a _ec:Oc cocc
q:occc, accec o:co e_ eDc cec
oa:O o:co e_ eDc accec coe:ae o:
e:c Oo qOaoc:Oca oea oc:o o ac:_a
qOc:ecc a _ec:Oc oOa q:c.
iv
oc oa oc:c q:c co: qa O _c:
:o8 20!0 Ooeoc e c e _o c c c_c
acO: De oeaOa co:c oD. 2000
Ooeoc _ o a c a e c: coca 0.0 c O
qcO:c occ 20!0 Ooeoc 7.0 cO: qcO
qco 20!! OaDc cO_occ qcOa Oc oca
cc. qc e_o _cc :e Dce aoeoca _Dc
oo: oc: eo c O: O oec a oa:c c:oD.
coc:a c _O a8, c c q:oc c :ec eooc
o c oca oo8c O cac:O oOa oOa
cao:cc:ca cccc oac Oaoca _coec
cc_a e:c oac:_a O:c:Oocc c_ O
2000 Ooeoc a _ec:oD Oo:c c ec e _o
ccccc c:Ooc ::ococ c_ o:cc.
q:occc cO:a e _o _c oc cacc oa:e:c
ca o q:oc: cac 8a oca ocs e_ c
qeac c _ q:c Oa qce:c c c _ a q:oc
cc:c:oc8 8aoca 2000 O:oc: O 8.o
c Ooac cO_occ qc Oa ac c a . e _o
_c cca o: q: c cO: c oDecc
oc::e:a ec Oc: a:e ca o a c o/oo:
Doac c8cacac a qcoa ccO:o :cDec
co:o o:co eDc O_a cc:O :_oa O
oco:8 e:ae qOao oD.
o8 qa O _a c_ a _ec:oD e _o c:Ooc Occ
q:c co e:a e o: O :_ 8 ::o oD. 20!0
Ooeoc _ o a c a e c:coc c c accc
Oaoca Dce c:a Oaocae Ooca Dc8
D:ac coe eea _ oac aec:aoca
22.0 c Oa o coc oo_a _. oeo c
ooocec coa co:c a8 eeaae
c:oo qcO:c c oo: ccaca c qa O c :e a Dc8
:oec. _ O:D coec oa:oe: O:c qc coe
ooo: q:cOa e_o c:OocOcca eo c:_a
eOoa o:cc: accac o:cc o:oo:Dc
:_o .
c :e a Dc8 o: O:D e _ c e:cc
8c:ac c oec c _:oa qc oa Ooca
Dc8 cc:o:o8 c_a oec _coec _c:o
o: c o7. cO, Dc8 D:ac c o e o
_coc c_ ca:cc oc:eo8 aooa
ec _ c c e co ooo: qc ooc q::ce
_cc:ac coec aO ccca o _a co7.
_ cceco oc:eO q:coc q::ce oo:
coco8 ec oa:O cooc:cac o: ooc:_ ec
_ qccoe 8aoca. oO:aO oa c_
Deca ec _ qcc oec Oc: cc qc oOa
o:a:cc oD.
co:o o_ Ooacc :ce:c co e:ao8
cec oa:O cc Ooaoco Oo:ccec _c:8
8a oca c:o:_ e _o c c cc c ec
ec _c: c o7. _:oocc Oaoca c Oa oa
a8 oc:_ cDc_ coc8 8aoca :a O:D
qO:acc oc:eO q:coc eee:Oc, Oo:c, eOa
oc:cc_ q:c ocooo c. qoac qcc 200o
Ooeoc _ oac aec:coca !.! c Oaoca
qo:cac o: osco oO: oOaoOa oa _
c:ea Dc8 20!0 Ooeoc 0.o cO: coc
O:D ca. eco qoe o:acc :ce:c
coe:ae _o: occ Da ccca oa Da
qO c:oD oc e o ec c oa :D e _o
_ecoc: oe:aO::c caa c:o:_c. qc:8Dc
cca c: O:ec o_ cca qO:oc ocooa
occ a8 a _ec:oD o:co e_o eDc Oc:c
o:o caec ec c o c: c 7c c c De
qcoOao cecc:Occ Dc cc Oc.
o:co e_ eDc accec coe c_a, e c:_a
eOoa qoe e_a ceO:e:aec ccoa
e _ o: Da ec qa c:c c c c cc c c c:
e:aec ccOo_c _:o7. q:cc Oaocae o:co
e _oec e: c:oc c _ a a e c:a Ooac
ocooo q:cOaa: O cc8 qocco _c:ec
oOoc:c cc e_oec _o_coca c_a coec
_oc eac c_ o:cc ocse_c qeaoc c
Ooac _coccac cooea c ccc_ _o
D aec 20!0 a _ec:O _co_ oeO:a
occ
oco aec 20!0 Oc:c occ: _eac
O:c:Oocc c:Oc ae_ _ c:cc:O ocooo
qocco _c:8 c:a a:ec o:cc o8 qaO
_a c_ e_o ccOc accec coo8 ccca
c _ a c c c_ qc Oa oa D ae _ _ ea c
qoc ce:Oa c c c oa : e _ c c cc c cc
q:c_c oa:c_ ccc _eac qc o_ o_
qO:aeca oc:oO a _ec:oD acoe:a Ooa
qac:cc c_O qae:a c_o:c ae_ Oo:c:o
:occ coe:ae c accec coo:ccac
Policy Perspectives
v
c_ o:c :oO q:oc coocc _:o8
ccc_ c:OocOc c_ae qccoec o:coD
qco:cO ocooa e _o _ o _ coc c _ a
qcOaa: O ae:c8 cc_:c o_ o Oc:c
oOaOa _eac c_a cccc Oa q:c
qO:a Deooc _ o_c:e c_a cc:Oc
cc Oa oa _c cc cac:O Oa qco cc a
eOoaoc cc_:c e:aO oc:e cccoec
Dec o oca cc Dec oc c:Oa o a c c
qcO_a oea oa:O _eacc ioo:cc ec
__ cac:Oc q:coc c Dc_ccac
20!0 qO:a c:ocoD c a _ec:oD _ea
qac:cc Ooa:cecO o_ ca co7 oc
c :a Oaoca e oo c D q:c oc qcocc
c:_e c oo c oc:coea q:o:o _ ea
o_c:e a:c
!
oc_ qcacac coa c:a
ocO_ O_ cOca oac:_a DcO_ oococ:c
oea c:coa co oc_ _ ea o_c:o8
cOc:Occ q:cO co7 :cc8 qeac oOca
q:cOa c_ _ c8ca O_a _eac oOc
qocco _c:8 q:cOaoa cc qOc:Occ
:cc 8 qeaoca q:c Oa _ eac c:_ac c oe
_o: Oa e_ cccccec ccO:oca c_:c
oa:Oa ooca _ c:_a o: _ cc:e:oe ooo:
Dc_cec e:ocD8 oc:: e:a oco aec
ocse_c qeaoc c Ooac cccDec o_
Do:e:a Dc o:c O:cc O:Dco8 ooo: oc:_oD
cOca: _eac:o ccaca c_c q:o:o _
o: oc_ _ O:DD8 qOoa:ec Do8 cocacc
q:c D c a : _ _e 8a oca c cac c ea a
O:DOa q:c:c qocce: coa _:o7
o8 qaO _eac:o cca ccOca o_a:e:ae
c a _ec: eo :ec O D a O:Dc o
qO:acc oc:ec_ ccoD 20!0 Ooeoc O:D
c:_cc c _ oO_oc:o_ qc oc c o:c c_
_Oa_c:O 20!! e_ c:eoc o: 7_ca !20 -
!80 c o_ q:co8ac c_ co _eac:o
ccaoc acoe:a ccOcc oOa co7 ococ
c oc 8cc oO_oc:_ oOc _:
ocDc:_a Doac q:oc:ca e_:c8 cc o_
Ooac Dec o q:c:8Dc c: co:cec
qcoa Doac OoOo:o e_a qcDa:_ o_
c _:e:a8 O_a a _ec:oD c:c ocoaa
o_ Doac OoOo:o e_ O_ qcocc q:c
Dc oec Do a c OoOo:o e _ oeocc e_:c ec
qc ooc Oaoca coco a _:ec c oc c:
accccca Da :e:aoc ceOa oeocc
oc ec coa _ e _ 2000 a c
O:c:Ooc c _ eO:oc Oo:c:ooca _ q::c8
Dc OoOo:o e o_ qec qaOao o_
o_c:e O:_:c De c c :e a e_aca
oOa oOa _Dc c c:e:oe O_c qOc o De
c_a oac e_ cae c_ Dec :cccOcc
:cca _ ace coo8 c:accc ooo: ca8
c c cc c ec Oaoca qa c:c o_ a:eDec
ccc c c oec Oc: 20!! O: c :ec O_
OoO c:c c eDc qOaoc:Oca 7 c 8 c O:
O:Dc oe O:a a c:ea c cOo oc::ea a
ce::cec c:accc ooo: cccc coec
a _ec: eo :ec O c:e:c cc :c Dc c e:Oc
o_ ccO oec cc:cec coaoa a8 oec
o ooOc c_:c c:a c cc qc oc c _Oa _c:
e0ce o: c o: O __e ec _eac:o
ccac qccoo8 :occcOc o: cOc
20!! c_e c:oc O qO:a Oa Dc qc oc c
o:cc_ _Oa_c:O 20!! Oa Dc c:Oc O:oec
_ea qac:cca ee o:cc_ 7_ca 70 Oc:
coc O:c a Dc c _ Oa e _ caec
_eac:o ccc_ oa:_c: o:oc oa:o:c
a_ooe c:eac cooOa e_: co8 _c
q:coc e Oaoca 20!0 icoc:o e c_e
a c c c ooea c 7c O 20!! Ooeoc cc oc:_o
7_ca ! c o: O :_8cocc acc coe
o: a _ec:O :acec :a8 D D
Do a c q:oc: ca Da:_ Oaoca oeocc e_:c e,
oo0 qc O q:oc qocce:Oa oeae cocc
qoc:ca cc:Oa coa Oc :cecc Oa
aec q:occ ocooo cco8 cocc oa:Oa
_c:8 co qacoecO q:c Ooca e8 O_
coa occa o: e_o 8c:ac coaoa
oco :c ca a O:ec oD c : e a
e_aca oea o:oo: ecc c: c o: o O:
! 20!! ca e:oc 2002 ca8 Ooec o_ eaa ca8 c:_c Oaoca :Oo:_ :e:aocc 200o/2007) e:ae o: 200o/2007
eo:ac q::ce o: Dc8 ca8 cooea CCP1 eac coa _.
"Policy Perspectives' free download / e-version
vi
oOa oOa a _ec:oD Oc ea _ _ oea q:c O c O:
oa:Oa qco cc q:cD coaoa Doa OoOo:o
e_a a _ec: occ Da _:oea q:c c
8aoca Oa c:ea e8 eoa O_
ccc_cc Oaoca c_ cOc: c_a occ
:o o oeO 8 cc Oc e:aDa cOc O: e:a e
ocooo _ ecOa ocDc:_ a o: e c:_ a
_c:8 q:coD
Da:_ a c:ea e_a 8aoca cec
ocDc:_ a _c:8 q:c oD c O:c a oeoc Do a
Daec ocooo Ooa:Oac qcoa cca q:c
oD Doac Daec oO_oc:_ o: a _ec:
eo :ecO Da _oco:a occ_ e:ocD8
eooc OO a _ec: o:cc_ cc oc:_occ
:occecO a:cO 8 ca o_ eocc oO_
oO_co: OoOo:o e_ 8aoca _oOa
cOc a qc oa e oc Da ec qa c:c cca
o_c:ec c_a c:coaco oO_oc:_O_ O_
a _ec:oD qcaca, qc coec:oc Occc
oc:ecoa _c c:Da q:cc Oaocae Oc:c
_:c:c c: c qcaca ooo: _ O: cc
_:oa co q:acac q:aca co:ccc qcaca
a e c:a o: a:i o:Oc q:c Dc o:c c
Doaeocae o_ ca c:coaco oO_ _Oo _
ea eooc accec o:cc_ca _eac
e:cc:O:cDec o:cc _:o7
oco ae c e:c qOo:_ O_ _ o a c
aec:ccc :occeO qcaca qac:cc c:c
ocoaa o_ coc O:Do8 O:c:Oocc c_
ca8 2004 28 c O qcaca qac:cc 20!0
!o.7 c O: coc O:c a ). Do a ocO_ a
_:ea a: _ Da:_ c e c:_ aO q:c
oeDo8 c7ec q7c O:D O:Doca Doa
Da ec cc o8 qOaoc:Ooca oc:oDec
c_O a _ec:Oc cc oa:o:cc
oc:_ooc aoocce ODa:ce O:DDec c7cc
_ oac aec:ccc :occeO qcacacaoe
coc O:De c_a ocaa8 ocooaoa c:ec
e:c a _ec:O qcca coa o_ Ooa
oDec O c_ qcaca a : cec q:c O c ec cc
cec oa:O cDc_ coc8 o: O:Doca
q:oc:cac co8 q: cccaca c_a qccc
coec ccc Oc oco aec c: e:oc
oac oO_oc:_ e:a _c: _a c_ co:o
o_ o_ eOoacc :ce:c coec o:coc
oeoc c:c o: oO: o: Doac __e o_
aeO: eaoa a8 cec
o8 qa O oc a D co coa _: q:c co :oO
q:oc c c cc c c_ea:coc e c:_ a
eOoac o: O:ec oD eOoac e:c
cecc ee cc:cec Do8 cO: O:ec oD
_:oocc Oaoca __ cac: O:cc _a
occ:Oa oOc oc:e cooea cec co:o
eOoac c_a __ O coacoe _ oa:c_
o:c qco cc c_ ccoc e_o _cc oc
e:cc c O:ccoa o: q::ca Da:_
oc:cc :cce eea o8 qaO _c: _a
c_ oo0 e c o_c:Oc c _ e:cO
Doeo_: oeae q:ococ cc cc qeaca
qco a oe:c oOa c oa o : qc c oe c
occ Da c:c ocoaa ccOo ooea q:c :D
oca cc
ca o: eco: o_ca oc:oco8acO Da cO_
o: q::c8 O:c c_ _coa _ @cecc
qaO 200o-07 Ooeoc caeooca !o2 ce
O __ ca eco:O 2000-!0 Oa Dc 80 ce
ccaccc cO: coc O:D co7 oeo Oc:c
ceaa: oc a8 o8 qcoco c:_oc
a:eoc e:@c o: Oc qeaoc cococ qcDec
2
cc qcoco qOo:_ O_ :Do_ q:cO _
q c:Ooc:Oc o 2000 e o c:ec _O
q:oc qOc:cc e:a _c: _a c_ __ce
coc oo_o8 ec cccacao ccc_ c_e
c_Oa c oco aec cc cc qeaca qco
cOc a qe:ac:O qc c oe cco8 c _ecc
oa:Oa oa e _ c Oaoca e cDc_ co c8 o:
e_ ocDo8 o: cec:oc ocecc o:
oa :_ o8 200o Ooeoc ce a:eoc
e:@c cococ qOe coe c ococ eOoa
cccacao :_c__ oc:ecoa _ ooca
e ccc Oaoca ec c_ qec _ cc:Ooc
2 oOe:o cO qcoOao oeO_ec Oaoca e:c q:ocec ca e:oca oee O:oc:oD o O:a ooco :coOa :cDc:O
_aa.
Policy Perspectives
vii
cococ qcDec _O q:c ae_ e:coc cc
cc c:ccc 8aoca _c: _a c_ ca8
c co:e e:cc:Oc_ coe:_c coDe, cc cc
qea o: caO:oecc:Oc qaO _:c:c q:oc
cc:Oac coDaDo8 Deec: cO_occ cOc
c e:c8 O_a c7cO _ocooa cca:a
c7e c_ oec e:c c_O o:c::_e c:
O:ec co:c
o_:cc Da e:c qc:c q:c co 8cc
qe:aO oc:e c _ a qc ac qo c:o
cc Oca c _ e:cc c oea e o:oo: Dc
qoaca c c c oa qa o8 c c q:oc
qa:oce cc:Occ a oe:c oD q:c c
Oaocae oe:_c q:oc qoc o q:o:o _Oo
_ o_c:o8 oocoOa o:oo: ocO_ O_c aO
e:c q:oc q:cca ee oc:o:ec _O
c o7 cc cc ocO_ qO: :cc q:oc
eoc:Oac o: occ: Dooc eco:oD c:oc
eooc o_: coc q:occ c cc ec oOa
c oa qO c:Oc qec _ cc:Oc c _
caaec co: 8aoca aO qO:acc
oc:e oOa cOc eOoc o: eOoac oOa
cOca ocO_ ccOc ca8 oc:oo:c o: _ccc
cac:O qco cOca: cococ O:DoOa cOca
Oc:Occ cOec cOc
o Ooe c_ a _ec:O oDeOc eOoacc
co: c:ec :a8 oOa Da ooc a :e:ac Oc
c_ caaec co: q:o8cc qOc:oDe
Dec ccOo oa:eaoa a8 oeca _o:e
q:cOa e:c e:c O_c qcc eoec
_oD o_ e0co8 eOoacc q:c Oa oa
aoco:Oe c:cec cecc oc oO_ O Dcc
oeca co acca o: q:cOa :occec
__e o_ a:eoD __ec o_a co co
a cca :cc c oa:o:c Oa qO c:Oa o
co o: aco acca qco O:cc cococ
c_ Dec ee c:o
qoccec q:c:ooca o Ooec_ a _ec:oD
q:oc Ooac O:D O:Doca o_ co oO:
qeacc ooo: :ce:c coe:aec caoa a8
O:c c cococ c _ Do8 e:cOc ec Dc o:c c
oc qcooc Oaoca oO: oc:ccca oo: Oce
oc c: a c c c cca c o c oe oOa oOa
q:oc: cac c o e _o: 8cc c D
eD8ec/qDec qeacao O:DO:Doca o
c c: a oe:c Oa qO c:Oa o a c c:
eOoac oa:e:cce c_a ae oO_oc:o_
Oo o:c ec cc:Oca _c a a Dc o:c c
oeo o:oo:Dc cc:Oc ccOaoa aco o:
c:ac: accac
cO _o: q:oc eOoac qco:Oao O
oecc Oa qco cO cece eOoacc
q:_ c__e oa:Oaa:c oea qO:a oc
oa:oD oee c7e ccoc co:o o: oOe:o
cO ae:c ec_cc occac qOaoOaa:O
O:ec ccccccc Oc ccoD
o8O: cccccec _co_ca O_ DDcO c:Dc:
ocooa O:ee:_:O Oa ae_ oeocc Doae O
cc Oca c _ a c c:a Oa oa c O: oa:_c:
o:oe oa:c_ cc Oc a _ec:O e:a _c:
_a c_ ccc coDocca c7cO q:oc
Oaoca o iOa c 7ec c _ c c:c ec oOa
cOca eOoa cccac ooo: oo0 eec o:
cc:ec:O a:Occ q:ccoe _o: a:e ca
e:cec q:oc qc_:aca co:_c ccc
oc c _ caec a c c c c Oc q:c
ocooa q:oc c c cc c 8c:ac c oe cec
oa:O 8cc o:o:oe o c O:c c oDaDe
e:a q:c:ooca _De c _ e:c O_c
eoDc:Oc cOa ccccc 8c:ac coe
qOao oD
oee Ooo ''q:oc ccOc ae:c O:oc:oD
c :a oc e:O O c_ qe:ac:Oca qc c oe ee a
cOc ccoa e:oe o:acc Dco ocooa
''coca c cO oOe:ocO qOaoc:
ca ac o8 o:o: oc: c c:o:_ Oe
q:O:ooe:a c _ oc: cc a o Oc:c c :oc: e c
e"oc:cca _a c_ co:o cO o:
oOe:ocOc qOao :ccc eacc, :o:o
coe c_:c 8cc qcoOa c:Dc: coec o
cO e: coec eec:a :Da
c_:c oc c: a c c c c oOe :o c oD
c o:c ec e:ec :ccc c8co:Oa oe
occ: acccc O:Dc coe cc qcca
viii
qoac qca c_:c occ: qOc:Oa o:
coDac O:Dc coe oc qOao oD
:cc8 c:coca occ: acccc:Oc O:Dc
c oec q:c _c Dc c c o a8 e :c ec cc Ooca
ccc oscoc coc8 qo:cac o: oOac
c_:c Oc c8c _ _e 8a oca _c: _a
c_ occ: coDac O:Dc coe o: DD
c oe: _ c c_:c o DD eoc c8co:Oa
oOaoOa q:ococ DD qea c_ qOc: DOc
c oe qOao oD q:occc o_c:Ooc o:
qe:ac:Ooc e0c8 oeae coe:_c, caeoa,
o ae c, c:_a:c ec, o ac:_a e:cc c
co: o cccccec O:c:Ooc q: oOac
:o o :c O:a cc Oca , c oD c c c_
c oc c ooeo _: O:ec c:occ:occ c coc
oec c 7e c _ coDo ea:Oc o:
cccccec Dco co8 ocO cccccec
ocec ea:Oc c_a a _ec:O o: oOe:o
cOc :ce:c coe:aec qOao o oee
O:oc:oD c o oc:c ee a Deoaacc _c
ocoo
i
nfhs; ifj; Njhw; wq; fs;
cyf nghUshjhu kP l; rp f; fhd fbdkhd
ghijia Muk;gpf;ifapy;> mJ ePz;l fhy
tsu; r; rp f; fhd mbf; fw; fsp d; I. eh.
nfhs;ifahf ,Uf;fl;Lk;> my;yJ I.,. apd;
nghUshjhu tsu;r;rp cghakhf ,Uf;fl;Lk;>
my;yJ [g;ghdpd; Gjpa tsu;r;rp cghakhf
,Uf; fl; Lk; > cyff; nfh s; if
mikg; ghsu; fSf; F tsu; r; rp Na %isf;
fy;yhf mike;jJ. ,e;j tifapy; ehl;bd;
Aj;jj;Jf;Fg; gpd;dhd #oypNy mJ jdf;F
tUlj;Jf;F 8 E}w;W tPjj;jpw;Fk; $Ljyhd
xU Mty; kpFe; j ,ilf; fhy tsu; r; rp
,yf; if itj; jp Ug; gjp y; = yq; fh xU
tpjptpyf; fy; y. cz; ikapy; xU Jupjkhf
Kd; Ndwp tUk; Nguz; lg; nghUshjhur;
#oYf;F kj;jpapy; = yq;fh 2010 y; xU
gykhd nghUshjhu kPz;nlOjYld; ,jid
mile;jJ. Vw;Wf; nfhs;s Kbahj mstpy;
cau; e; j gztP f; fj; JlDk; Fiwe; J tUk;
ntspehl; L ehzakhw; W ,Ug; GfSlDkhd
nghUshjhu eltbf;ifs; mjpfkhfr; rPu;nfl;L
,Ue;j ,uz;Nl tUlq;fSf;F Kd;G ,Ue;j
epiyf;F NeNu tpj;jpahrkhdJ. 2010 y; =
yq;fh xU rhjid kpf;f 6.6 kpy;ypad; I.eh.
nlhyu;fspdhyhd cau; cj;jpNahfg; G+u;t
,Ug;GfisAk; xU kpjkhd 5.9 E}w;W tPj
gztP f; f tp fp jj; ijAk; tUlj; jp d;
ngUk; ghyhd fhyq; fsp y; xU ep iyahd
ehza khw;W tpfpjj;ijAk; fhl;baJ. ,e;jf;
Fwpg;gplj; jf;f jpUg;gkhdJ Ml;rpapy; cs;s
gyk; kpf;f murhq;fj;jpd; nfhs;ifapdhYk;
kw;Wk; murpay; ];jpuj; jd;;ikapdhYk;> gyg;
gLj;jg; gl;l ehl;bd; ePz;lfhy nghUshjhu
vjpu;ghu;g;Gfspw; nfhz;Ls;s GJg;gpf;fg; gl;l
ek;gpf;iff;Fg;; ngUkstpw; flikg; gl;Ls;sJ.
= yq;fhtpd; gykhd kPl;rpf;Fk; njd;gLtJ
Ngh d; w gp u fh rkh d ,ilf; fh y
vjpu; ghu; g; GfSf; Fk; kj; jpapy; ehl; bd; rkP g fhyg;
nghUshjhu epiwNtw;wq;fspw; Fwpg;ghd rpy
mk;rq;fs;; gw;wpr; rpy ftiyfSk; cs;sd.
mj; jifa mk; rq; fsp y; ehl; bd; Gjp a
]jpuj; jd; ikapypUe; J ,yhgq; fisg; ngw; Wf;
nfhs;sf; $ba jdpahu; Jiw %yjdj;jpd;
xg;gPl;L mbg;gilapw; gyq; Fiwe;j kPl;rpAk;
xd; whFk; . jdpahu; Jiwapdupy; fld; <L
nra; jiyg; gpuNahfpg; gjd; tsu; r; rpAk; > ehl; bw; F
tUk; Neub ntspehl;L %yjdj;jpd; (vt;.B.I.)
cs; tUifiag; NghyNt Ntfq; Fiwe;J
fhzg; gl; lJ. jdp ahu; j Jiwf; fld;
tsu; r; rpahdJ 2010 d; ngUk; gFjpapy; ke; jkhf
,Ue;J tUlj;jpd; ,Wjp khjq;fspy; khj;jpuk;
mgptpUj;jpaile;jNjhL vt; B I cs;tuTfs;
rr;ruTfs; epiwe;j 2009 Mk; tUlj;jpd; 385
kp y; yp ad; I.eh.nlhyu; fSf; F vjp uhf 435
kpy;ypad; I.eh. nlhyu; tiu xU rhjhuz
kPl;rp fz;lJ. fle;j tUlj;jpw; Nghd;W ehL
xU 8 E}w;W tPj tsu;r;rpia mila mur
KjyP Nl = yq; fh tp d; tsu ; r; rp
Kf;fpaj;Jtj;jpid Kd; nfhz;L nrd;wJ.
ngh Ush jh u tsu ; r; rp ap d; %yq; fs;
Kf; fpakhdit vd; w NghjpYk; tsu; r; rpia
Kd; nfhz;L nry;tJ vJ vd;gjpy; njspthd
cld;ghL vd;WNk ,Uf;ftpy;iy. cz;ikapy;
mgp tp Uj; jp f; fw; gidah dJ Ju p j
mgptpUj;jpia cWjpg; gLj;Jtjw;fhd mjp
rpwe;j nfhs;iffs; vit vd;gjpy; khWgl;l
ek;gpf;iffSld; rpjWz;L fplf;fpd;wd. 1980
Mk; tUlq;fspy; re;ijfs;> tpiyfs; kw;Wk;
Cf; Ftp g; Gfsp y; gh u ; itia xU
Kfg;gLj;Jifapy; xU mjpu;r;rpA+l;Lk; efu;T
fhzg; gl; lJ. ,it> ,e; j eilKiwap y;
;fl; likg; igr; rupg; gLj; Jjy; tpiyfisr;
rupahfg; ngWjy; Mfpatw;wpD}lhf epjpr; rk
ep iyap d; ikiaf; Fiwj; J Fwp g; ghff;
ifj; njhop y; %yjdq; fisf; $ba tiu
cau;j;Jjiy Ntz;b epw;fpwJ. 1990 fspy;
ehLfSf; Fr; re; ijg; gLj; Jjiy kl; Lk; $wpf;
nfhs;if topelj;jy;fis toq;Fjy; NkYk;
fbdkh f ,Ue; jJ. jdp ah u ; j; Jiw
mgp tp Uj; jp f; fh f Cf; Ftp g; GfisAk;
eltbf; iffisAk; mwp Kfg; gLj; j
Nkhrbfisf; Fiwj; Jk; rl; l Ml; rp ia
Kd; Ndw; wpAk; tpahghuq; fis elj; Jtjpw;
nrytpdq;fisf; Fiwj;Jk;> njhopy; El;gk;
Mfpatw;wpd; juKau;j;jYf;fhf fy;tp kw;Wk;
mjd; Ntiy mzp fsp d; jp wikfis
'Policy Perspectives' (Translation - Tamil) free download / e-version
ii
Kd; Ndw; ; w mur epWtdq; fisg; gyg; gLj; Jk; gb
mit ehLfis Ntz;Lfpd;wd.
epfo;r;rp epuy;fs; khw;wj;jpdhyhFk; eyd;fs;
vJthf ,Ug; gpDk; %yjdj; jpd; xU epiyahd
mjpfupg; G nghUshjhuj; jpd; tsu; r; rp tpfpjj; ij
jw; fh yp fkh NtDk; cau ; j; Jfp wnjd
nghUshjhur; rp j; jhe; jk; Fwp g; gp Lifap y;
cw;gj;jpj; jpwDf;F Nkk;ghLfisf; nfhz;L
tUjy; Fwpg;ghf kdpj %yjdj;jpy; GJik
kw; Wk; KjyP Lfspd; fhuzkhf NkYk; epiyahd
Kiwap y; tsu ; r; rp ngUFjiy
mDkjp f; fp wnjd NkYk; fyg; GfSs; s
Kiwfs; Fwpg; gpLfpd; wd. ,e; jj; Jiwapy;
ehl;bd; ngsjpf cl;fl;likg;G %yjdj;ij
Kd; Ndw; WjYf; Fg; ngupJk; rhu; ghTs; s =
yq;fhtpd; mur %yjd Kd;ndLg;G tsu;rpf;F
xU gp uNahrdkhd Muk; g Cf; Ftp g; igr;
re;Njfkpd;wp toq;fyhk;. Mdhy; me;j tsu;r;rp
Kf; fp aj; Jtj; jp d; eP z; l fhyk; ep iy
nfhs;Sjy; njhopy; El;gk; kw;Wk; mwpTg;
gupkhw;wk;; Mfpatw;wpw; nghUj;jkhd Kiwapy;
%yjdkpLjiyf; nfhz;Nl cWjpg;gLj;jyhk;.
,q; Nf jdpahu; j; Jiw %yjdk; kw; Wk; tpNr\khf
vt; B I Mfpait xU Fwpg;ghd Kf;fpa
ghfj;ij Vw;f Ntz;bAs;sJ.
jdpahu;j; Jiw fld; tsu;r;rpahdJ 2009 d;
kj; jp a gFjp ap yp Ue; J = yq; fh g;
nghUshjhuj;jpy; Vw;gl;l Gjpa kPs;gha;r;ry;
kw;Wk; $ba Ntfj;jpyhd tsu;r;rpapd; NghJk;
xg; gpLifapy; . Fjpj; njOjy; ke; j Ntfj; jpNyNa
,Ue;jJ. fld; tsu;r;rpahdJ> 2008 y; xU 8
E}w;W tPj tsu;r;rpf;Fg; gpd; GwkhfTk;> 2009
d; 5.8 E}w;W tPjr; RUq;fypd; NghJk; 2010 d;
,uz; lhk; miug; gFjpapy; kl; Lk; tUl ,Wjpapy;
25 E}w;W tPjj;jpdhyhd xU MNuhf;fpakhd
tsu; r; rp iag; gjp T nra; Ak; msTf; Fj;
njhlu;e;jJ. = yq;fh mikg;gpy; ,Nj Nghd;w
xU Nguz;l mjpraj;ijg; Gupe;J nfhs;tJ
kp f ,yFthf ,Ue; Jk; jdp ahu; Jiw
tsu; r; rpapd; ke; jkhd kP l; rpf; fhd fhuzk;
Kw;wpYk; njspthf ,y;iy. 2008/09 fspd;
Nguz;lg; nghUshjhuf; fPo; Nehf;ifg; Nghd;w
xU ep jp r; rp f; fy; ep iyiaj; njhlUk;
,ilf; fh yg; ngh Ush jh u r; #oyp Ny
FbapUg;GSk;; epWtdq;fSk; mitaitfspd;
fld; Rikfisf; Fiwg;gjdhy; vjpu;ghu;f;ff;
$bajhifahy; ke; jkhd fld; tsu; r; rp
vjpu;ghu;f;ff; $bajhfTs;sJ. cyfha epjpr;
rpf; fy; epiyapdhy; = yq; fh Njitaw; w
Kiwapw; ghjpf;fg; glhJ ,Ue;J 2005 07
fspd; kpjkpQ;rpa fld; tsu;r;rpr; #oYf;F
kj; jpapy; mjw; Nj cupj; jhd epjpf; Fog; g
epiyapD}Nl nrd;W nfhz;L ,Ue;jJ. mJ
rpy Kf; fpakhd epjp epWtdq; fSk; rl; l
tpNuhjkhd nghd;rp jpl;lq;fs; mtpo;tij
kl;Lkd;wp FbapUg;Gfs; kw;Wk; epWtdq;fisf;;
$Ljyhf Mjpf;fQ; nrYj;JtijAk; fz;lJ.
cjhuzkhf ,jd; tpisthf tq; fpj; Jiwapd;
ruhrup ,af;fkw;w fld; toq;fy; (vd; gP vy;)
tpfpjhrhuk; 2007 d; 5 E}w;W tPjj;jpypUe;E
2009 y; 8.5 E}w;W tPjj;Jf;Fj; Js;spaJ. mJ
kP s; - %yjd Nehf; fq; fSf; fhf fk; gdp j;
Jiwap du ; ,yh gq; fis ep Wj; jp
itj;jpUg;gjhfTk; ,Uf;fyhk;.
xl; L nkhj; jkhf> jdpahu; Jiw %yjdg;
grpiaf; Fiwg;gjpy; Nfs;tp kw;Wk; toq;fy;
mk;rq;fs; ,uz;Lk; xU ghfj;ij Vw;Ws;sd
vd; gij = yq; fhtp d; mDgtk; Rl; bf;
fhl;LfpwJ. xU Jupj nghUshjhu kPl;rpapd;
mwpFwpfs; fhzg; gl; l NghjpYk; kpjkpQ; rp
Mjp f; fk; nrYj; jg; gl; Ls; s tP LfSk;
ep Wtdq; fSk; fld; ngWtjp y; tp Ug; gf;
Fiwthf ,Ue; jNjhL tq; fp fSk; fld;
toq;Fjypy; tpUg;gf; FiwthfNt ,Ue;jd.
cz; ikap y nghUshjhuf; fP o; Nehf; F
jdpahuj; Jiwapdupd; Nrkpg;G mjpfupg;igj;
J}z; baJ. ,e; jr; #o; epiyfspy tq; fpfs; ;
fl; lha eltbf; iffs; tFj; jy; cl; gl; l
mtw; wp d; fld; toq; fy; tp fp jq; fisf;
Fiwj;jiy <u;g;gjw;fhf = yq;fh kj;jpa
tq;fp (]P gp v]; vy;) mjd; nfhs;if tl;b
tp fp jq; fisf; Fiwg; gjw; F Kk; Kukhf
eltbf; if vLj; jNjh L Vida
topKiwfisAk; gpuNahfpj;jJ. nkhj;jkhf
,itnay;yhk; tiuaWf;fg; gl;l tpisTfis
khj; jpuNk nfhz; bUe; jd. vdNt FbapUg; GfSk;
ep Wtdq; fSk; fld; fisj; jp Ug; gr;
nrYj;Jifapy; Vida fhyq;fis tpl xU
Fiwe;j Cf;Ftpg;igNa toq;ff; $Lk; vd;gJ
Mr; rupaky; y.
jdpahu; Jiw KjyP l; lhsu; fSf; F FWfpa fhy
epjp ,yhgq; fisg; ngw; Wf; nfhs; sj; njspthd
NtW topfs; cs; sNjhL cau; e; J tUk;
cs;s+u; %y epjpr; re;ijapypUe;Jk; Fiwthf
my; y. = yq; fhtpd; Nghu; ]; MdJ> njhlu; e; J
cyfstpy; ,uz;L tUlq;fshf ,uz;lhtJ
mjp rpwe;j ,aw;Wduhf Mtjw;F 2010 y; 95
E}w;W tPjj;Jf;Fk; $Ljyhf ,yhgk; <l;baJ.
Policy Perspectives
iii
nghUshjhuj; jpd; eP z; l fhy tha; g; Gfspy;
GJg; gLj; jg; gl; l ek; gpf; if re; Njfkpd; wp
xU ghfj; ij Vw; W ,Uf; ifap y; newp g;
gLj;JNthupd; cw;GFjiy fl;lhag; gLj;Jk;
Cfk; kpFe;j tpahghu eltbf;iffspdhYk;
,yhgq; fs; xU ngUk; msTf; F Kd;
js;sg;gl;ld. xg;gpLifapy; epue;ju tUtha;r;
nrh j; Jf; fsp yp Ue; J tUk; Fiwe; j
tUtha; fSk; gq; Fr; re; ijfSf; F gzk;
nrYj; Jjyp y; xU gh fj; ij Vw; wJ.
tq; fpfSf; F NkYk; mgha kpf; f fk; gdpj;
Jiwap diu Nah > Fbap Ug; Gf; fld;
thq; Fgtu; fisNah ehLk; mtrukhd
Njitfis ,y;yhkyhf;Fk; mghak; mwNt
,y;yhj MNuhf;fpakhd tUthia murhq;ff;
fld; gpizaq;fs; njhlu;e;J toq;Ffpd;wd.
XusTf;F njhopw;rhiyfis tq;fp Kiwapd;
fldpD}lhf tprhykhf;fp Gjpa ,ae;jpuq;fspy;
KjyPL nra;tjw;fhd jdpahuj; Jiwapdupd;
jho;j;jg; gl;Ls;s grpahdJ rpy rkak; xU
fyg; ghd MrP u; thjkhFk; . jdpahuj; Jiwf;
fld; tsu;r;rp xU Jupj mbapy; NkNyhq;fp
,Ue;jjhy; murhq;fj;Jf;Fr; nrhe;jkhd epjp
%yjdq;fs;> fle;j tUlj;Jld; njhlu;gpy;
kpf Kd;Ndw;wkhd gpujpgyd; ,Ue;j NghjpYk;
mirTWk; tpisTfisf; nfhOj;jp tplhJ
,lkspf;f KbahjpUe;jpUf;Fk;. = yq;fhtpd;
2010 d; [P.B.gP apd; 7.9 E}w;W tPjf; Fiwia
[P.B.gP apd; 3.6 E}w;W tPj cs;ehl;Lf; fld;
thq; fyp D}lhf ep jp ap lg; gl; lJ. ,jd;
mbg; gilapy; jdpahu; j; Jiw epjpf; fhfg Nghl; b
Nghlhj epiyapy;> epjp mOj;jq;fs; kw;Wk;
nghUshjhu kPl;rpf;fhd Jupj eltbf;iffs;
,Ue; j NghjpYk; xU Fiwe; j gztP f; fj; ijAk;
tl; b tp fp jj; ijAk; nfhz; l xU fhyg;
gFjp ia ntw; wp fukhf ep iyf; fr; nra; a
murhq;fj;Jf;F Kbe;jJ.
vt; thwpUe; j NghjpYk; Fiwf; F epjpaply;
njhlu;ghd murhq;fj;jpd; epiyg;ghlhdJ
cjhuzkhf cs;ehl;L epjpaPl;L %yq;fis
ek;gpapUj;jiy tiuaWj;jy; - tsu;r;rpiaf;
$l;Ltjw;F jsu;j;jg; gl;l epjpf; nfhs;if
ep iyg; ghl; il ep iyf; f itf; Fk; mjd;
Kaw;rpahdJ ,ul;il efu;Tfshf ,Uf;ff;
$Lk; . mJ mtrp akhfNt ehl; bd; mur
KjyPl;Lj; Njitfis vjpu; Nehf;f ntspehl;L
ep jp ap liy = yq; fh ek; gp ap Uj; jiy
cau; j; JfpwJ. cau; e; J tUk; ntspehl; Lf;
flDf; Fj; jpwtyhf ,Uj; jyhy; eLj; juk;
njhl;L ePz;l fhy mghaq;fs; Vw;glf; $ba
tha;ig mq;fPfupj;jiy mbf;fb tpLf;fg;
gLk; ep jp gyg; gLj; Jk; Kaw; rp fisf;
fl; Lg; gLj; Jk; .
rkPg fhyj;jpy; Mjpf;fj;jpy; ,Ue;J te;Js;s
Fiw epug;G epjpaPl;L %ykhdJ ntspehl;Lg;
ngaupl;l ehzaf; fld; thq;fyhFk;. 2009 y;
ntspehl;L epjpaPL [P B gP apd; 4.8 E}w;W
tPjkhf ,Ue;J 2010 y; 4.4 E}w;W tPjj;Jf;F
kl;Lk; rw;W tPo;r;rp mile;jJ. ntspehl;L
ehzaj;Jld; njhlu;ghf ehL mghaj;Jf;F
ngUksT jpwtyhf ,Uj;jy; - fld; ePbf;Fk;
re; ju; g; gq; fspy; rtnua; d; tpfpjq; fSf; Fg;
ghjpg; G tha; g; G> ehza khw; W mghaq; fs;
Mjpad ed; F njupe; jNj. vt; thwpUe; j
NghjpYk ;= yq;fhtpd; ntspehl;L fld;;fspd;
[P B gP tpfpjk; fhyj;jpd; ngUk; gFjpfspy;
khw; wk; milahNj ,Ue; Js; sNjhL cz; ikapy;
mJ 2009 d; 36.5 E}w;W tPjj;jpypUe;J 2010 y;
36.1 E}w;W tPjkhff; Fiwe;Js;sJ. ehza
khw; W efu; Tfs; ntspehl; Lf; fld; Rl; bf;
fhl;bfspy; njspthd ghjpg;igf; fhl;Lfpd;wd.
2010 y; &gha; ,Ue; jJ Nghd; w mDgtj; jpdhy;
xU fpuhf; fp kpf; f ehzak; [P .B.gP apw; F
ntspehl; Lf; fld; tpfpjhrhuj; ijf; Fiwg; gjd;
%yk; epjpr; Rl; bf; fhl; bfis Nkk; gLj; j
cjTfpwJ.
KO nkhj; j vz; fisj; jtpu; f; fhJ fld;
tp laq; fis mikj; jy; . ,q; F = yq; fh
rYiffs; ,y; yhj kw; Wk; tzp f %y
fhuzq; fSlDkhd ntsp ehl; Lf; fld;
fl;likg;gpy; mtw;wpd; gqFfis 2006 d; 7.3
E}w; W tP jj; jpypUe; J 2010 d; 37.5 E}w; W
tPjj;Jf;F cau;j;jp xU Jupj khw;wj;ijf;
fz;lJ. ,it tpiyAau;e;j ntspehl;L epjp
%yq;fshtNjhL Mr;rupaNkJk; ,d;wp ehl;bd;
KO nkhj;jf; fld; Nrit tpfpjk; fhyg;
gFjpapy; 2002-04 d; 12 E}w; W tP j tUl
ruhrupapypUe; J 2008-10 d; 16.4 E}w; W tP jj; jpw; F
CLWtpr; nrd;wJ. vjpu;fhyj;jpy; ntspehl;Lf;
fld; Nritr; nrYj;jy;fis nrsfupakhf
vjpu; nfhs;s KbAk; vd;gijAk>; vjpu;ghuhj
ntspehl;L mjpu;TfSf;F ehl;bd; jpwtiy
tiuaWg;gijAk epr;rapj;Jf; nfhs;tjw;Fk;
= yq; fh mjd; md; dpa nryhtdp ciog; Gfs
gykhf ,Uf; fpd; wd vd; gij epr; rapj; Jf;
nfhs; s Ntz; Lk; . xU Kjw; gbahf xU
Gj; jpahd top vJntdpy; vjpu; fhyr; nrYj; jw;
NjitfSf; Fj; mtrp akhd mz; zp p a
"Policy Perspectives' free download / e-version
iv
nryh tzp ia Neu bah fNth my; yJ
kiwKfkhfNth mjp fup f; Fk; tifap y;
jp l; lq; fSf; F ntsp ehl; L ehzaf; fld;
ngWtij tiuaWg;gjhFk;.
ifj; njh op y; kakh f; fg; gl; l
nghUshjhuq; fsp d; eilKiwap y; cs; s
mgptpUj;jpfs; murhq;fq;fSf;Fg; ngwf; $ba
Nju;Tfs; gw;wpa xU ,yhgfukhd ghlj;ijAk;
xU Njitahd Qhgf%l; liyAk; toq; FfpwJ.
nghUshjhu tsu;r;rpf;F tupg; gz kw;Wk; /
my; yJ ep jp f; nfhs; if FWfp a fhy
Cf;Ftpg;ig toq;f KbAkhapDk; ;ePz;l fhy
fld; gpur; rpid NkhrkilAk; mghaj; JldhFk; .
khwhf tupg; gzr; rkhspg;gpd; kPJ xU NkYk;
mtjhdkhd mZF KiwahdJ FWfpa fhy
tsu; r; rp ia gOjhf; FtNjhL cz; ikap y;
mt; top ap y; Nju; jw; fsj; jp y; kf; fsp d;
ntWg; igAk; Vw; gLj; Jk; . = yq; fhtp w; F
eilKiwapy; cs;s ru;tNjr ehza epjpaj;
fldhd (I.vk;.vt;) cldhd Mjhu Vw;ghL
(v]; gP V) murhq;fj;jpd; tupg;gz kw;Wk;
ehzaf; fl;likg;Gf;F Kf;fpaj;Jtk; mspj;J
xU ntspthup eq; $uj; ij ,l; Ls; sJ. I.vk; .vt;
jpl;lk; 2012 y; KbtiltJld; = yq;fh xU
MNuhf;fpakhd nghUshjhuj;ijAk; gykhd
nghJ epjpfisf; iff; nfhs; tJ kl; Lkd; wp
gpujhd Nju;jw; fz;bg;Gfs; ,y;yhj epiyapy;
nghJ ep jp fis xd; W jp ul; Ltjw; Fj;
Njitahd murpay; mtfhrj;ijAk; ngWk;.
Nkw;$wg;gl;l rpuj;ijfspd; fhuzkhf 2010 d;
tupg; gz tpisTfs; rhjfkhf cs; sd vd; gJ
cl;rhf%l;Ltjhf cs;sJ. FiwghLfs; 2009
d; [P B gP apd; 9.9. E}w;W tPjj;jpypUe;J 2010
y; 7.9 E}w;W tPjkhff; Fiwf;fg; gl;Ls;sNjhL
2011 NkYk; 7 E}w;W tPjj;Jf;Fk; fPo;f; Fiwf;f
Kide;Js;sJ. ,J vt;thwhapDk; Fiwe;j
tupg; gz ,yf; Ffs; ve; NeuKk; tpUk; gj;
jf; fNjh my; yJ nghUj; jkhdNjh vdf;
fUJtjw;fy;y. tpthjpf;ff; $ba tpjkhf =
yq;fhtpd; 2009 d; tpupT gLj;jy; Nehf;fpyhd
tup g; gzf; nfhs; ifahdJ> xU $u; e; j
nghUshjhu fPo; Nehf;F kw;Wk; Aj;jj;jpdhy;
jsu;r;rpAw;w kf;fis kPs;FbNaw;w Ntz;ba
cldbj; Njitfspdhw; fl; Lz; Ls; s epiyapy
cs; s+ u; r%f murpay; fl; lhaq; fSf; Fk;
kj; jp ap y; ep ahakhdjhfNt ,Uf; fyhk; .
nghUshjhuj;Jf;F mj;jifa xU Cf;Ftpg;G
,d; wp jdp ahu; j; Jiwap dup d; KjyP l; il
Nkw; nfhs; tjw; fhd gpd; thq; fy; 2009 w; gjpthd
3.5 E}w; W tP j nghUshjhu eltbf; ifia
NkYk; fP o; j; js; sp ap Uf; Fk; . tup g; gz
,yf;Ffis mZf xU cWjpahd mZF
Kiwia mKyhf;Ftij tpl cs;s+u; kw;Wk;
/ my; yJ ntsp A+ u; mjp u; TfSf; Fg;
nghUj; jkhd Kiwapy; gjpyspg; gjw; F Ntz; ba
tisT nfhLj;jiy mDkjpf;f mtrpakhtJ
MNuhf; fp akhd mur ep jp fs; vd; gijj;
njsp thfg; Gup e; J nfhs; tjhFk; . ,e; jr;
#oypNy vy; yhtw; wpw; Fk; Kjd; ikahf = yq; fh
nra;a Ntz;baJ vd;dntd;why; ehl;bd; fld;
nghWg; igf; fhyg; Nghf; fpy; Fiwg; gjw; F> mjd;
Fiwghl;il Kfhikj;Jtk; nra;J nfhs;sf;
$ba kl; lj; Jf; F jho; j; JtNjhL mJ kW
Gwkhf tupg; gz mtfhrj; ij tupg; gz
kw; Wk; / my; yJ ep jp f; nfh s; if
eltbf; iffsp d; Clhf re; ju; g; gj; Jf; Fg;
nghUj;jkhd Kiwapw; gjpyspg;gjw;F ehl;bd;
Fwpg;gpl;l Njitfis tpLtpf;Fk;.
,e;j mbg;gilapy; = yq;fhtpd; rkPg fhy
tu p g; gz xd; wp izg; G jp l; lq; fs;
epahakhditNa vdj; Njhd;WfpwJ. 2010 y;
nrytpdq;fs; xU [P B gP apd; E}w;W tPjkhf
[P B gP apd; 22.9 E}w;W tPjkhfj; jw;Nghija
nrytpdq;fis epahag; gLj;Jtjd; Clhff;
Fiwf; fg; gl; lJ. Cf; fkspf; ff; $ba tpjj; jpy;
%yjdr; nrytpdq;fs; tuT nryTj; jpl;l
vjpu;T $wy;fSf;F Vwj; jhor; rkhe;jukhf
ep iyj; jp Ue; jd. ,ilf; fhy tsu; r; rp
tha;g;GfSf;F tup mjpfupg;Gfis tpl nryT
ntl;Lfspd; Clhd tupg; gz xd;wpizg;G
Kaw;rpfNs NkYk; $Ljyhf Mjutspf;Fk;
vd;gijr; Rl;bf; fhl;lj; jhuhskhfr; rhd;W
cs;sJ. NkYk; cau;thd KjyPl;Lr; nrytpd
tpfpjj; Jf; F Mjutspg; gNjhL eilKiwr;
nrytpdq;fspd; ntl;Lfspd; Clhf ,ijr;
nra; a murhq; fk; Kaw; rp f; fp wJ. NkYk;
nrytp d ep ah ag; gLj; jyh dJ tu p
mwtP l; bw; fh d [dh jp gjp f; fkp \ dp d;
rp gh u p Rfsp d; mbg; gilap y; tu p r;
rPu;jpUj;jq;fspd; topahf Nkyjpf ,iwtup
tUkhdj; ij cw; gj; jp ahf; Ftjw; fhd GJ
Kaw;rpfs; ,ize;Js;sd.tupr; rPu;jpUj;jq;fs;
tUkhdj; jpw; Nfh my; yJ Nrkpg; GfSf; Nfh
my;yhJ Efu;Tg; nghUs; kw;Wk; nrhj;Jf;fs;
kPjhd tupfis cau;j;JtijNa ,yf;fhff;
nfhz; Lsjhfj; Njhw; WfpwJ. Ke; jpait kP jhd
tup mwtPL gpe;jpait kPjhd tup mwtPl;il
tp l tsu; r; rp f; Fg; ghjfk; Fiwthdjhf
,Uf;Fk;.
Policy Perspectives
v
,iwtup f; nfhs; iff; F ep iyahd cau;
tsu; r; rpAld; kl; Lkd; wp mj; jifa tsu; r; rpapd;
gq; fP l; L tp isTfSlDk; njsp th d
rk; ge; jq; fs; cs; sd. cjh u zkh f
eilKiwap y; Ftp tp lkhf cs; s nghJ
cl; fl; likg; gp y; ghijfs; > JiwKfq; fs;
tpkhd epiyaq; fs; epu; khdpg; gjpy; ngupJk;
xU Kfg; gLj; jg; gl; Ls; sjhfj; njupfpwJ.
khwhf fy;tp kwWk; Rfhjhuj; JiwfSf;fhd
%yjd KjyPL 2006 y; [P B gP apd; 1.1 E}w;W
tPjkhf ,Ue;J 2010 y; 0.6 E}w;W tPjkhfj;
jho; e; Js; sJ. ,Wf; fkhd tup g; gzf;
fl; Lg; ghLfsp dhy; murhq; fk; mila
Kaw; rp f; Fk; gw; gy rp f; fyhd ,yf; Ffs;
njspthf cs;sd. rpy rkak; kpf Kf;fpakhf
xU cldb Kd; Dupikahf = yq; fhtpd;
mur epjpfs; xU MNuhf;fpakhd epiyapy;
,lk; ngWtjp d; mtrp aj; Jf; F cldb
Kf;fpaj;Jtk; mspg;gjw;Fk; mJ cjTfpwJ.
mur epjpfis xd;W Nru;j;jy; ePz;l fhy
tsu;r;rp ,yf;FfSf;F Mjutspf;ff; $ba
ehza kw;Wk; gupkhw;w tpfpjf; nfhs;ifia
mikg; gjw; Fk; cz; ikapy; cw; gj; jp tsu; r; rpf; F
epjp ,Wf;fj;jpdhy; Nkhrkhd ghjfNkJk;
Vw;gLkhapd; ehza ,yF gLjiyf; nfhz;L
<L nra; a KbAk; . jdpahu; Jiwf; fld;
tsu ; r; rp f; F xU tiu aWf; fg; gl; l
ngWNgWfSldhapDk; 2010 y; = yq; fh
,ijNa nra;jJ. vt;thW ,Ug;gpDk; 2010 y;
ngUksT jahskhd gztPf;fr; #o; epiyapd;
NghJk; tpiy ];jpuj;Jtj;jpw;F vof; $ba
mr; RWj; jy; fs; cz; L. ,t; thwhf ep jp
xd; wp izg; G Kaw; rp fs; ngWNgWfis
msp f; fp d; w Nghjp Yk; ehzaf; nfhs; if
gztP f; f vjp u; gh u; g; Gfisj; J} z; Lk;
tpijfisj; J}tf; $lhJ. = yq; fhtpd;
rhj;jpakhd Nkyjpf #L gpbf;fhj tsu;r;rp
tp fp jj; ijf; fw; gid nra; a khj; jp uNk
KbAkhap Dk; tp ahghuq; fs; tp Uj; jp ahFk;
ep iyahd vjp u; T $wf; $ba Nguz; lg;
nghUshjhur; #oiy toq;Ffpd;w mjw;Nf
cupj;jhd ntFkhdq;fSk; cs;sd. cau;e;j
kw; Wk; rhj; jp akhf mjp f ep iyaw; w
gztP f; fj; jp d; tp iyfs; msTf; fjp fkhd
ehza nesptpdhy; cw;gj;jp tuTfis kpQ;rp
tp lyhk; . Kiwahd njhop y; fsp y; cs; s
Ntiyahl;fisg; Nghyy;yhJ gztPf;fj;ij
vjpu; j; J jk; ikg; ghJfhj; Jf; nfhs; tjw; F
tiuaWf;fg; gl;l khw;W topfis khj;jpuNk
nfh z; Ls; s ViofSf; F ru p rkkh f
tsu; r; rp ap d; gyd; fs; ngWtij cWjp g;
gLj;Jtjw;fhd Kaw;rp kWf;fg; gl;L ,Wjpapy;
tpiy tPf;fj;jpdhy; ViofNs ghjpf;fg;gLtu;.
= yq; fhtpd; gz tP f; f tpfpjk; 2010 d;
,Wjpf; fhyhz; Lg; gFjpapypUe; j mbg; gilapy;
nfhe; jspg; ghd fhy epiyiaj; njhlu; e; j
czT tp iy mjp fup g; gp d; fhuzkhf
ngUf;fkhf cau;e;J te;Js;sJ.
1
rpy gpujhd
vz;nza; Vw;Wkjp nra;Ak; ehLfspy; Vw;gl;l
murpay; Fog; g epiy fhuzkhf ru; tNjr
vz; nza; tpiyfis cau; j; Jk; mOj; jq; fis
Vw; wp d. mj; jifa tp ep Nahfg; gFjp
mjpu; r; rpfs; gztP f; fj; jpd; kP J jtpu; f; f Kbahj
ghjp g; Gfs; ,Uf; Fk; toq; fw; juj; jhy;
ce; jg; gl; l gztP f; fj; ijf; fl; Lg; gLj; Jtjw; Fj;
jug; gLj; jg; gl; l ehzaf; nfhs; if ,zf; fq; fs;
gadspf;ftpy;iyahjyhy; gupghypf;fg; gl;l
tpiyf; fl;Lg;ghLfs; tup eltbf;iffspd;
Clhd khw; Wj; jiyaP Lfs; eilKiwg;
gLj;jg; gl;ld. vt;thwpUe;j NghjpYk; Nfs;tpj;
jug;gpd; kPJs;s gztPf;f mOj;jj;ij tpiuT
gLj; jTk; $l; lTk; jdpahu; j; Jiwf; fld;
tsu; r; rp kP l; rpnahd; W vjpu; ghu; f; fg; gl; l NghjpYk;
Ntjd mjpfupg;GfspD}lhf czTg; nghUs;
kw;Wk; vupnghUs; tpiy mjpfupg;Gfs; nghJg;
gztPf;f mOj;jq;fspDs; cupQ;rpf; nfhs;sg;
gLk; vdw mr;rk; ,Uf;fpwJ.
,t;thwhf ]P gp v]; vy;> vOfpd;w gztPf;f
mOj; jq; fisf; fz; lwp tjw; F cgup ahf
tpopg; gha; ,Ue; J nghUj; jkhd Kiwapy;
kWnkhop gfu Ntz;Lk;. re;ijapy; Nkyjpf
&gha;g; Gof;fk; - 2011 d; Muk;gg; gFjpapw;
$l &gha; 120 130 gpypad;fs; vd kjpg;gplg;
gl;Ls;sJ 2010 d; $Ljyhd gFjpfSf;F
xU rhj;jpakhd gztPf;f mOj;jk; %ykhf
,Ue; Js; sJ. murhq; fj; jpd; fld; gpizaq; fs;
re;ijf;F ntspehl;L %yjd cs;tuTfspd;
$u;e;j mjpfupg;Gk; NkYk; tpku;rdj;Jf;Fupa
tpjkhf ngUksT murhq; f ntspehl; L ehzag;
ngaup Ys; s fld; ngWif> rp y rkak;
fdp rkh d Nky; kp Q; rp a ntsp eh l; L
1 (2002 I mbj;js tUlkhff; nfhz;L) 2006/07 d; tPl;L tUkhdk; kw;Wk; nrytpd Ma;tpd; mbg;gilapy;
fzff;fplg; gl;l (2006/07) ,uz;L tUlr; ruhrupiaf; nfhs;tjw;F 2011 y; ]P ]P gP I jpUj;jg; gl;lJ.
vi
ehzaq;fis ehl;bDw; nrYj;jp ,Uf;fpwJ.
2009 f;Fg; gpe;jpa fhy mikg;gpd; ruhrupia
tplTk; rpwe; j Ntiyahs; gz mDg; Gjy; fspd;
cs; thq; fy; fs; ,e; j cl; nrYj; jy; fis mjpfg;
gLj;jpaJ. %yjd cl;nrYj;jy;fis kl;Lg;
gLj;jp mdhtrpa ehzag; ngWkjp mjpfupg;ig
jLg;gjw;F ]P gp v]; vy; mb itj;jypd;
xU gq;fspg;G gpujpgydhf cs;ehl;L ehza
mbj;js tpupthf;fk; ,Ue;jJ. xU tpiyaPl;L
El; gj; jp D}lhfr; nfhs; if tp fp jq; is
cau;j;Jjy; - nraw;gLtij tpl 2011 Vg;uypy;
tu; j; jf tq; fp fsp d; mur xJf; fP l; Lj;
Njitg;ghLfspy; ,J fbdkhd Mdhy; (v];
v]; Mu;) 7 E}w;W tPjj;jpypUe;J 8 E}w;W
tP jj; Jf; Ff $l; Ljy; Nghd; w ; xU gupkhd
El; gj; jpD}lhfr; nraw; gLtij ]P gp v];
vy; Nju; e; njLj; jJ. kp jkp Q; rp a gzg;
Gof; fj; ij <u; j; Jf; nfhs; tjw; F ,ijj;
njhlu; e; jhy; xU fbdkhd Mdhy; gad;
juf; $ba El; gkhFk; . gz tP f; fj; jp d;
mOj;jj;ijf; Fiwg;gjpy; mjd; gad; jUk;
jd;ikahdJ kpjkpQ;rpa gzg; Gof;fk; kw;Wk;
flDf; fhd Njit Mfpatw; wpd; kl; lq; fs;
Mfpatw;wpw; jq;fpAs;sd.
2011 Vg;uy; mstpy; tUlhe;j gztPf;fk; 6.6
E}w; W tP jj; jpypUe; jJld; 2011 Kjw; fhyhz; by;
kp jkp Q; rp a &gha; g; Gof; fk; &gha; 70
gpy;ypaDf;Fk; fPohf tPo;e;jJld; tpuptilAk;
ehza mbj; jhsj; jpd; gztP f; f tpisTfisj;
jl;bf; fopf;f KbahJ. %yjd cs;tuTfs;
rkP g fh yj; jp y; Rygkh Fk; vdf;
Fwpg; gpLtjw; fhd milahsq; fs; cs; sd. 2010
xf;Nlhgupy; toq;fpa KjyhtJ gTd; fld;
gj;jpuj;ijj; njhlu;e;J 2011 gpe;jpa gFjpapy;
,uz; lhtJ 1 gpy; ypad; I.eh nlhyu; fSf; fhd
gTd; fld; gj;jpunkhd;w toq;fTk; Vw;fdNt
jahuhfp tUfpwJ.ngUkstpyhd ntspehl;L
%yjd cs;tuTfs; ehl;bd; GJg;gLj;jg; gl;l
nghUshjhu tha; g; Gfspd; mwpFwpnadTk; ey; y
KjyP l; L tha; g; Gfspd; rhl; rpfshFnkdTk;
fUjf; $bajh f ,Uf; fp d; wjh ap Dk;
nghUshjhuj; Jf; Ff; Fiwe; j Urp As; s
rpf; fy; fSk; cs; sd.eilKiwf; fzf; Ff;
FiwghLfSf;F epjpapLk; tpjk; = yq;fhtpd;
nghUl; fSf; Fk; NritfSf; Fk; jw; NghJ
ep Tfp d; w Njitfsp d; %ykhd %yjd
cl; nrYj; jy; fsp d; ngUk; gFjp ap dhy
te;Js;sdty;yhJ murhq;fj;jpd; ntspehl;L
ehzag; ngauplg;gl;l fld; thq;fy;fspdhw;
rupe; Js; s %yjd cl; nrYj; jw; fzf; Ff;
nfhLf;fy; thq;fy;fspd; tpisthfNt vd;gJ
Kf;fpakhdJ. ,j;jifa mgptpUj;jpfs; xU
ehl; bd; ntsp thup f; fld; nrYj; jy;
epiyikapd; kPJ FWfpa fhy kw;Wk; ePz;l
fhyg; ghjpg;Gfisf; nfhz;Ls;sd.
ghupa epfu %yjd cl;nrYj;jy;fspdhYk;
cldb FWfpa fhyg; ghjpg;Gfs; cs;sd.
mit jtpu;f;f Kbahj tpjj;jpy; xU ehl;bd;
ehza khw; W tpfpjj; ij cau; Nehf; fpj;
js; Stjw; F mOj; jk; nfhLf; fpwJ. ]P gp
v]; vy; ypd; ntspehl; L ehza khw; Wr;
re;ijapw; gyj;j FWf;fPLfs; ,Ue;j NghjpYk;
ngaustpy; I eh nlhyu;fSf;Fr; rkhe;jukhf
= yq; fh &gha; 3 E}w; W tP jj; jp dhy;
kjp g; Ngwp aJ. tp ahghu gq; fhsu; ehzaj;
njhiffSf;F vjpnujpuhf ,lk; ngw;Ws;sd
Nghd; w cz; ikahd ehza khw; W tpfpjj; jpy;
xU kjp g; Ngw; wkh dJ> = yq; fh tp d;
Vw; Wkjp fis ru ; tNjrr; re; ijap y;
rfhakw;wjhfr nra;fpwJ.; kypthd ,wf;Fkjp
cs;tuTfspD}lf tpiy tha;g;igg; ngwf;
$ba > ,wf;Fkjpiag; ngUkstpy; ek;gpAs;s
Vw;Wkjpg; nghUl;fs; ,Uf;fyhk;. Fwpg;ghfr;
ru; tNjr Efu; Tg; nghUs; tpiy mjpfupg; Gfspd;
kj; jp ap y; xU gyk; tha; e; j &ghahdJ
gztPf; fj; ij fl; Lg; gLj; j cjtpahf ,Uf; Fk; .
vt; th wp Ug; gp Dk; > rkP g fh yj; jp d;
Vw;WkjpfSf;F [P B gP apd; tpfpjhrhuj;jpy;
xU fdprkhd tPo;r;rpapd; kj;jpapYk; - 2004 y;
28 E}w;W tPjj;jpypUe;J 2010 y; 16.7 E}w;W
TPjk; - ePz;l fhyj;jpy; ntspehl;Lf; fld;
kP sr; nrYj; jy; fSf; Fj; jpwtyhf cs; s
epiyapd; kj;jpapy; ntspehl;L ehzakhw;W
ciog;gpd; Njit gw;wp = yq;fh jpUg;jpapy;
,Uf;f KbahJ. G+uz nlhyu; mbg;gilapyhd
mjpfupg;gpd; NghJk; Vw;WkjpfSf;F [P B gP
apd; tpfpjhrhu tP o; r; rp rkP g fhyj; jpy; =
yq;fh fz;L tUk; cau; tsu;r;rp Kf;fpa
ep iyahdJ Vw; Wkjp j; js; Sjyp dhw;
FiwthfTk; cl;fl;likg;G Mfpad Nghd;w
mur %yjd Cf;Ftpg;gpdhw; $ba mstpYk;
cs; sd vd; gijr; Rl; bf; fhl; Lfp wJ.
vt;thwpUe;j NghjpYk; kpf tiuaWf;fg; gl;l
cs; ehl; Lr; re; ij ,Uf; ifap y; ; ehl; bd;
nghUl; fs; kw; Wk; NritfSf; fhd ntspehl; Lf;
fpuhf; fpia cau; j; Jtjd; %yk; khj; jpuNk
epiyahd cau; tsu;r;rpia mila KbAk;.
Policy Perspectives
vii
,t;thwhf NkNy tptupf;fg; gl;l Nguz;lg;
nghUshjhuf; nfhs; if Kfhikj; Jt
tptuq; fs; eP z; l fhy tsu; r; rpf; Ff; fhuzpfshf
mikAk; . tsu; r; rp Ald; ehl; bd; r%f
Kz;Ndw;wj;ijAk; ,izg;gjhapd; mitAk;
fhuzpahf mikAk;. cjhuzkhf> tUtha;
kp f; fj; njhop y; fSf; F twp atu; fis
,Oj;jypd; %yk; kl;Lkd;wp ,yf;F itj;j
r%fj; jpl;lq;fSf;F epjpapLtjw;fhf NBYk;
ngupa msT tupg; gzj; ij toq; Ftjd;
%yKk; epiyahd tsu;r;rp tWik xopg;Gf;F
cjt KbAk;. me;j tifapy; ehl;bd; KO
nkhj; j tWikia vjp u; nfhs; tjp Yk; >
nghUshjhuj;jpd; JiwfSf;fpilapy; vOe;J
tUk; ,ilntspfisf; Fiwg; gjpYk; = yq; fh
fdprkhd mbfis Kd; itj; Js; sjhfj;
Njhd; Wfp wJ. Ml; fzf; nfLg; G kw; Wk;
Gs;sptptuj; jpizf;fsj;jpdhy; elj;jg; gl;l
tPl;L kw;Wk; tUtha;r; nrytpd Ma;T (vr;
I < v];) tWikj; jiyf; fzf;nfLg;Gr;
#rfk; 2006/2007 d; 15.2 E}w;W tPjj;jpypUe;J
2 0 0 9 /2 0 1 0 y; 8 . 9 E} w; W tP jkh ff;
tP o; r; rpaile; Js; sJ. kpf ek; gpf; ifA+ l; Lk;
fUj;jhtJ ,ilf; fhyg; gFjpapy;;;;
2
efu fpuhk
kw; Wk; Njhl; lj; JiwfSf; Fkp ilap yhd
,ilntspfs; FWfpAs; sd vd; gjhFk; . ,ilf;
fhy tUlq;fspy; mDgtpj;j cau; tpiy
];jpukw;w epiyikiaAk;> 2009 y; mDgtpj;j
nghUshjhuf; fPo;Nehf;ifAk; fUj;jpw; nfhz;L
KO nkhj;j tWikf; Fiwg;G Kaw;rpfspd;
ngWNgWfs; tp af; fj; jf; fdthAs; sd.
vt; thwp Ue; j Nghjp Yk; 2005 njhlf; fk;
murhq; fj; jp d; mgp tp Uj; jp j; js; Sjyp y; >
mbg; gilapy; fkj; njhopw; JiwapdUf; F
cl; fl; likg; G kw; Wk; Mjhuj; Jf; fhf nrytpl; L
efu fpuhkg; Gw ,ilntspfSf; F ghyk;
mikg; gjp y; toq; fp As; s mOj; jj; jp d;
fhuzkhf JiwfSf;fpilNa tpj;jpahrj;ijr;
RUq;f itj;jy; mt;tsT tpaf;fj; jf;fjhf
,Uf; fhJ. KO nkhj; jr; rkj; Jtkp d; ik
xLq; fp tp l; l Nghjp Yk; tUtha; kp f; fg;
nghUshjhu mtfhrq; fis mZFtjpy; cs; s
NtWghLfs; Nghy;> Gtpapay; mikg;G Jiw>
kjf;nfhs;if Mfpad Nghd;w njhlu;e;J
,Uf; fr; nra; fpwJ. Aj; jj; Jf; Fg; gpd; dhd
rkur Kaw;rpfspd; mbg;gilapy; ,tw;iw vjpu;
nfh s; tjw; fh d nfh s; iffs; kp f
Kf; fpakhfpAs; sd.
cynfq; Fk; rkP g fhyj; jpy; mDgtpj; jjd;
gpufhuk; xU rkkw; w nry; tg; gq; fP L> fLikahd
fytu epiyikapd; NghJ epjKk; r%ff;
Fog;g epiy tope;J nry;yf; $ba cau;
kl;lj;jpyhd nghUshjhu ];jpukw;w epiyia
cUthf; Fk; . cz; ikapy; cyfg; nghUshjhuf;
nfhe; jsp g; Gk; > czTg; nghUs; fsp d;
tpiyNaw;wKk;> gy ehLfs; GJg;gpf;fg; gl;l
r%f murpay; mjpu;r;rpfSld; NghupLtijf;
fz; Ls; sd. ,t; thwhf xU gytP dkhd
ngh Ush jh u r; RUq; fsp yp Ue; Jk;
mgp tp Uj; jp aile; J tUk; eh Lfsp d;
Ntiyaw; Nwh u ; vz; zp f; if ngUfp
tUtjpypUe;Jk; cyfg; nghUshjhuk; kPl;rp
ngw; W tUifap Yk; rkj; Jtkp dikg;
gp ur; rp idf; F GJg; gLj; jg; gl; l ftdk;
nrYj;jg; gl;L tUfpwJ. mgptpUj;jpaile;j
kw; Wk; mgp tp Uj; jp aile; J tUk;
ehLfSf;fpilapy; cs;s> nry;tj;jpd; ,il
ntspfs; xLq; fp tUifapy; - ruhrupahf
gpd;ida FOtpdu; Kd;idatu;fis tplf;
$ba Ntfj; jpy; tsu; r; rpaile; J tUtjd;
gpujpgydhf ehLfspDs; Ns nry; te; ju; kw; Wk;
twp Nahu; fSf; fp ilap yhd Mokhd gp sT
gw;wpa ftiy ,Ue;J tUfpwJ.
tUfpd;w tUlq;fspNy = yq;fh xU Jupj
tsu ; r; rp fh yj; Jf; fh fj; jah u h fp f;
nfhz;bUf;ifapy; Muk;gj;jpNy rkcupikg;
gpur; rpidiaj; jP u; j; jhyd; wp ,J jtpu; f; f
Kbahj tpjkhf r%fg; gpur; rpidfisAk;
jp Ug; jp g; gLj; j Ntz; b tUk; . cau;
tsu; r; rpf; fhd js; Sjy; vg; NghJk; njhopy;
El; g Kd; Nww; wj; Jld; Nru; e; Nj tUk; . ,J
rk; ge; jg; gl; l gap w; rp ; ngw; w
Ntiyahl; fSf; fhd fpuhf; fpia cau; j; ; jf;
$Lk;. vg;NghJk; cs;sJ Nghy Njitf;Nfw;w
tpjkhf gapw; rp ngw; w Ntiyahl; fis toq; fj;
jtWk; Ngh J gap w; rp ngw; w kw; Wk;
gap w; rp ap y; yhj Ntiyahl; fsp d; rk; gs
,ilntsp mfykhtjw; F top tFf; Fk; .
vjpghu; j; j gb = yq; fhtpd; tsu; r; rp tUfpd; w
tUlq;fspy; cau; gapw;rp ngw;w Nritfs;
Jiwap duhy; mjp fkhfr; nrYj; jg; gl; L
tUkhapd; mfykhFk; rk;gs ,ilntsp vof;
$Lk;. NkYk; xg;ge;j / rk;gpujhag;gb ,y;yhj
Jiwfspy; nkd; NkYk; njhopy; fs; cUthf; fg;
gl;L tUifapy; - njhopy; toq;Fzu;fSf;F
1 ,e;j mwpf;ifapy; 5 MtJ mj;jpahaj;jpy; cs;slf;fpa tsu;r;rp vd;w jiyg;gpd; kPjhd ciuahliyg;
ghUq;fs;.: jl;bf; fopf;f Kbahj xU cgfuzkhf r%fg; ghJfhg;G.
viii
my; yJ Rakh fj; njh op yp y;
<Lgl; Ls; stu; fSf; F gap w; rp f; fhf KjyP L
nra;tjw;F tiuaWf;fg; gl;l Cf;Ftpg;Gfs;
khj; jp uNkAs; s gap w; rp mgp tp Uj; jp fs;
,y;yhik njhopw; re;ijapNy fl;likg;Gf;
fl;lha Ntz;Ljy;fis Nkhrkhf;f KbAk;.
epjKk; ,jdhy; kpfTk; ghjpf;fg; glf; $ba
gpuptpdu; gapw;rpapy;yhj ngz; Ntiyahl;fNs.
mgp tp Uj; jp f; F ngh Ush jh u tsu ; r; rp
Kf;fpakhdJ vd;gjpy; tpupthd cld;ghL
,Uf;ifapy; mgptpUj;jpf;F tsu;r;rp kl;LNk
vy; yhky; y vd; gijAk; mq; fP fupf; fg; gl; Ls; sJ.
,jd; mbg; gilap y; ep iyah dJk;
cs; slf; fpaJkhfpa nghUshjhu tsu; r; rp vd; w
fUj; J murhq; fq; fSf; F xU fz; bg; ghd
nfh s; ifah fp wJ. ,it nfh s; if
Mtzq; fsp y; xU ehfuP fkhd mfuhjp r;
nry; yhf ,Uf; ifap y; Fwp g; gp l; l ehl; L
mbg;gilapy; mit Gwf;fzpf;fg; glhJ vd
Ntz;lg; gLfpd;wd. ePz;l fhykhf ,Ogl;L
te;j nryT kpFe;j Aj;jj;jpypUe;J kPz;L
tUfpd; w = yq; fhTf; F mjd; Aj; jj; jpd;
gp d; dhd mgp tp Uj; jp Kaw; rp fsp y; r%f
xw; Wikia kP l; b vLj; J ]; jp ug; gLj; j
cjTtjw; fhf vOe; J tUk; r%fg; nghUshjhu
Mty;fs; epiwNtw;wg; gl Ntz;Lk;. gue;j
mbg;gilapyhd Jupj tsu;r;rpia toq;FtJ
kl;Lky;yhky; tsq;fisg; gq;fPL nra;tjpYk;
mZFtjpYk; c; s; s ghjfNkw; glf; $ba
gp ur; rp idfSf; F gjp ysp f; ff; $bajhd
nghUshjhuf; nfhs; iffis mJ Ntz; LfpwJ.
,e; j tUlj; jpd; nghUshjhu epiyikapd;
mwpf;ifahdJ Aj;jj;jpd; gpd;dhd tsu;r;rp
vdw fUj;ij mjd; kj;jpa fUg; nghUshf
vLf;fpwJ rkj;Jtkpy;thikiaf; Fiwf;Fk;
:vz; zp ylq; fhj top fisj; njhlUfp d; w
tsu;r;rpiag; Gupe;J nfhs;tjw;fhd fz;bg;ghd
cs;slf;fy;fs; mj;NjhL tpUk;gj; jf;fjhd
Rj; jkhf xU ju; k rh]; jpu epiyg; ghl; bypUe; Jk;
NkYk; nraw; gLj; jf; $ba Nehf; fp Yk;
cs; slf; fpa tsu; r; rp > mtw; iw cl; gLj; jhik
tsu;r;rpiaf; fl;Lg; gLj;Jk; cw;gj;jpahf;ff
$ba tsq;fisf; Fiwthfg; gpuNahfpg;gjw;F
top tFg; gjhy; nghUshjhu tsu; r; rpia ]jpug;
gLj;j cl;gLj;jg; gl;lit Njitg;gLfpwJ.
cl;gLj;jg; gl;l tsu;r;rpiar; nrYj;Jtjw;F
cw;gj;jpahf;Fk; njhopy;fis mZFjy; xU
Kf; ; fpa mbg; gilahFk; . mJ xU Gwkhf
Ntiyahl;fis Ntiyapy; <LgLj;jf; $ba
jd; ikia Kd; Ndw; WjiyAk; kW Gwkhf
cw;gj;jpahf;ff; $ba njhopy; tha;g;Gfis
mDFtij Kd;Ndw;WjiyAk;; Ntz;LfpwJ.
toq;fw; Gwj;jpy; njhopypy; <LgLj;jf; $ba
jd; ikia Kd; Ndw; Wjyp y; ey; y jukhd
Rfhjhuk;> fy;tp> kw;Wk; Vida cw;gj;jpr;
nrhj; Jfs; cs; slq; Ffpd; wd. Nfs; tpfspd;
Gwkhf gy; NTW nghUshjhuj; Jiwfspy;
tpjtpjkhd Gtpapaw; gpuNjrq;fspYk; gy;NtW
tiffsp yhd Ntiyahl; fis Ntiyap y;
mku; j; Jk; tha; g; Gfis mZFjypy; Kd; Ndw; wk;
Njitg; gLfpwJ. xU nghUshjhuj;jpd; Muk;g
epiyikfs; - tWik kw; Wk; rkj; Jtkpd; ikapd;
kl; lq; fs; > mt; thwhfNt Gtpapay; > kf; fl;
njhifapay;> fhyepiy> murhl;rp> murpay;>
r%fg; ngWkjpfs; > nfhs; ifr; #oy; Nghd; wit
gpd; njhlUfpd; w tsu; r; rp tpisTfis
epu;zapg;gjpy; xU Kf;fpa ghfj;ij Vw;fyhk;.
,e;j mbg;gilapy; ,e;j mwpf;ifapd; vQ;rpa
ghfk; xU mj; jpaha kw; Wk; nfhs; ifr; RUf; fj;
njh lu p D} lh f nfh s; if gFjp fsp d;
tuzkhiyfSf;Ff; FWf;Nf = yq;fhtpd;
midj;Jk; cw;gl;l tsu;rpf;fhd jilfisg;
guprP ypf; Fk; .
200
Prospects free download / e-version
18. Prospects
The outlook for a sustained global economic recov-
ery received a significant blow in mid-2011 with a
deepening of the debt crisis in the Euro Zone econo-
mies, and political intransigence in resolving a deal
to raise the US debt ceiling and avert a debt default.
The uncertainty rattled financial markets across the
world, signalling loss of investor confidence in eco-
nomic leadership worldwide.
In the Euro Zone, a string of sovereign debt crises in
Greece, Portugal and Ireland began to spread to the
larger EU economies of Spain and Italy - and more
recently France - threatening to unravel the single
currency at the heart of the European integration pro-
cess. As borrowing costs for the already weakened
economies rose in the face of half-hearted measures
to stabilize the Euro Zone, the European Central Bank
(ECB) moved in to support Spain and Italy by ex-
panding its bond-buying programme on the under-
standing that they continued to cut fiscal deficits.
Despite this immediate relief, pessimism about Eu-
ropean economic prospects is deeply rooted. Second
quarter 2011 growth figures for the Euro Zone rose by
a mere 0.2 per cent, the slowest quarterly economic
growth since mid-2009. Any attempt to come to grips
with the potential escalation of the sovereign debt
crisis will require a commitment from more fiscally
prudent EU member states such as Germany to raise
the current 440 billion European Financial Stability
Facility (EFSF) rescue fund and/or for the Euro Zone
to issue bonds backed by all member nations. Whilst
such a move will no doubt calm markets, it will be a
difficult sell for many of the stronger Euro Zone econo-
mies given the significant economic and political costs
representing such a bailout. The shakier Euro Zone
economies will be called on to undertake deep struc-
tural reforms carrying painful austerity measures, as
governments attempt to persuade their creditors that
they can meet their debt obligations. Austerity mea-
sures are likely to hurt growth, but there appears to
be little choice for the debt-ridden governments.
An important lesson from

the debt crises in the Euro
Zone economies is that
dependence on private
capital to finance public
expenditure can create
stresses and strains on an
economy when they are
least expected
201
The problems for the US economy are as
complex. Political brinkmanship on a deal
to raise the US debt ceiling - agreed on al-
most at the last moment on 31 July 2011 -
was purportedly a key factor in the decision
by Standard & Poor's to strip the country of
its AAA credit rating on August 5, 2011. The
final debt deal that focused more on spend-
ing cuts than tax increases to tackle fiscal
problems was lopsided, and unlikely to help
a faltering economic recovery. Nonetheless,
unlike the Euro Zone - which lacks true po-
litical integration - the US has favourable
factors working for it, including a greater like-
lihood of tackling fiscal problems if politi-
cal leadership is able to rise above partisan
politics. The reasoning behind the US dollar
'exceptionalism' - the global reserve currency
of choice - also suggests that the downgrad-
ing will have a limited impact, especially
given that the euro is hardly likely to be
viewed as a viable alternative to the dollar
anytime soon. However, with an unemploy-
ment rate of over 9 per cent, an annualized
GDP growth rate of a mere 0.8 per cent in
the first half of 2011, and consumer spend-
ing at its weakest in two years, the US eco-
nomic downturn is clearly more severe than
was previously understood. Indeed, the eco-
nomic woes of the US and EU have been
described as a second 'Great Contraction' of
growth (the first being the period after the
Great Depression) as opposed to a typical
recession or even a double-dip Great Reces-
sion.
1
The symptoms - slow growth over
many years - are argued to be the result of
deep financial crises that require bailouts by
states, which are then left with few resources
and tools to cope with stagnant growth and
high unemployment.
Even as the developed world is being plagued
by record levels of debt and weak growth as
economies struggle to recover, a slow but
steady re-balancing of the global economy is
taking shape, moving the centre of global
economic gravity from the West to the East.
Emerging economies of Asia - particularly
China and India - have already begun to play
a more prominent role in global economic
governance reforms through membership of
key forums such as the G20. However, the
region is unlikely to escape unscathed from
the recent developments. While demand for
exports may shrink, the direct impact on
growth will be less severe as the larger Asian
economies rely ever more on stimulating
domestic demand to keep growth buoyant.
Alternatively, their growth prospects are more
likely to be impacted by the possibility of
investors fleeing to safer havens. The Asian
region may experience a renewed inflow of
foreign capital, raising the risks of overheat-
ing even further, and requiring a tighter mon-
etary policy response that will take a toll on
growth. While economic growth in Asian
emerging markets, particularly in China and
India, is already forecast to slow relative to
historical trends over the last decade, the re-
gion will still be the driving force behind
any global economic recovery process.
For Sri Lanka, renewed concerns about the
global economic outlook will have mixed
bearings. The most obvious concern will be
in regard to the medium term prospects for
the country's major export industries that are
heavily reliant on US and EU markets. In the
first half of 2011, export growth remained
strong, albeit on the back of a steady im-
provement from the poor performance expe-
rienced in 2009. While the immediate im-
pact on key exports such as garments may be
limited, if consumer demand in the US and
EU continues to weaken further, it will
clearly have an impact on order books in the
months to come. On the import side, ex-
penditures have outpaced export earnings,
with Sri Lanka's trade deficit expanding by
62.7 per cent in the first six months of 2011.
1
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff83/English.
202
A slowdown in export earnings could be off-
set if international oil prices were to ease as
global growth falters. However, a general
downward movement in commodity prices
could be double-edged, if there is a knock-
on impact on some of Sri Lanka's key non-
industrial exports such as tea and rubber.
Even as the trade deficit swells, Sri Lanka has
continued to see a strong surge in worker
remittances, with inflows growing by 26.4
per cent in the first half of 2011. Addition-
ally, earnings from tourism remain healthy,
estimated to have grown by over 50 per cent
to US$ 370 million over the same period,
2
with an increase in tourist arrivals of 37 per
cent. However, such inflows are not suffi-
cient to bridge the trade balance, as a result
of which Sri Lanka is likely to see an ex-
panded deficit in its current account of the
BOP in 2011.
Overall, however, the outlook for the
country's external payments position remains
positive in view of inflows on the capital
account transactions. The CBSL reported of-
ficial reserves of US$ 7.5 billion by end June
2011 - sufficient for 5.4 months of imports,
country's official reserves jumped to US$ 8.1
billion by end July 2011, adequate for 5.8
Box 18.1
External Sector Performance (January-June)
% growth 2009 2010 2011
Exports -18.0 13.7 35.2
T&G -4.1 -2.5 34.7
Imports -36.7 42.1 46.5
Petroleum -56.6 97.3 27.7
Trade balance -59.9 108.6 -62.7
Remittances 5.4 13.5 26.4
Source: CBSL, External Sector Performance, various issues.
months of imports. On the face of it, there-
fore, the country appears favourably posi-
tioned to withstand an immediate external
shock to the economy. However, as Sri
Lankas trade balance widened, non-borrowed
reserves have declined steadily in recent
months amidst efforts to hold the exchange
rate within a pre-determined band.
Despite a faltering global economy, with a
GDP growth rate of 8 per cent recorded dur-
ing the first half of 2011, Sri Lanka's growth
forecast for the year of around 7-8 per cent
is also likely to remain unchallenged. Much
of the country's recent growth momentum is
derived from domestic stimulus as the
government's public investment programme
is implemented. However, this is not to sug-
gest that Sri Lanka should be complacent and
overlook more medium term risks to eco-
nomic performance and macroeconomic sta-
bility. The risk is all the more should the
debt crises in the developed countries lead
to a protracted and slower global economic
recovery process.
As already noted, Sri Lanka's export earnings
could be adversely affected. Apart from this,
there are also other adverse spillover effects
that could materialize. These relate in the
2
CBSL, External Sector Performance June 2011, www.cbsl.gov.lk.
203
main to the possible impact on global finan-
cial flows. Short term capital inflows to Sri
Lanka's sovereign debt market are necessar-
ily curtailed by regulatory restrictions cap-
ping the holdings of foreign investors. The
risk for a small economy such as Sri Lanka,
making a slow but steady post-conflict eco-
nomic recovery, is investor perception with
regard to the outlook for medium term eco-
nomic stability. Should the current global
economic uncertainties make investors highly
risk-averse, smaller emerging economies such
as Sri Lanka could see a slowdown - or even
a reversal - of capital flows. Such a develop-
ment could also come about, as previously
experienced in 2008, if foreign investors face
a liquidity crunch. The underlying pressures
on global flows of FDI are likely to be simi-
larly driven. In the first half of 2011, Sri Lanka
is estimated to have attracted gross FDI in-
flows of US$ 413 million as part of the
government's target of raising US$ 1 billion
by end 2011.
3
The anticipated upsurge in
FDI inflows to Sri Lanka in 2011 is tied largely
to the leisure and real estate sectors. Attract-
ing FDI inflows more strategically into manu-
facturing and skilled services sectors can be
expected to become more difficult if global
2008
a
2009
a
2010
b
Loans Grants Loans Grants Loans Grants
Bilateral 397.4 79.9 870.7 99.4 2402.5 104.6
China 46.3 0.8 295.4 2.4 821.4 7.5
India 0.5 30.2 17.2 483.8
Japan 263.3 15.4 295.8 15.6 396.6 42.3
Multilateral 380.1 213.7 427.0 224.5 762.3 19.0
ADB 248.2 41.7 243.4 40.5 366.7 5.5
World Bank 96.0 49.6 147.6 54.5 347.4
Total 932.0 293.6 1297.9 323.9 3136.9 123.6
Table 18.1
Sources of Foreign Financing (US$ million)
Note: a: Disbursed; b: Committed.
Source: Department of External Resources, Performance Report, various issues.
economic conditions deteriorate to a signifi-
cant extent.
FDI, however, accounts for only a fraction
of Sri Lanka's Gross Domestic Capital For-
mation (GDCF). Net FDI amounted to only
3 per cent of GDCF in 2010. Sri Lanka's cur-
rent investment drive, driven by an expanded
public investment programme, is largely de-
pendent on a mix of private capital and mul-
tilateral/bilateral development finance. In July
2011, Sri Lanka issued its fourth US dollar
benchmark offering in global bond markets,
raising US$ 1 billion. In addition, Sri Lanka
has also been raising larger volumes of de-
velopment finance through loans in recent
years. Access to such finance is unlikely to
be affected by the global debt upheavals. For
Sri Lanka, Asian economies such as China
and India - with significant foreign exchange
reserves - have emerged as the main source
of bilateral development finance. Indeed,
these two countries accounted for over 40
per cent of total foreign financing commit-
ments made to Sri Lanka in 2010.
While Sri Lanka may not see its access to
sources of foreign savings drying up, there
3
CBSL, Monetary Policy Review August 2011, http://www.cbsl.gov.lk.
204
could be other risks. For one thing, rating
agencies are likely to adopt a tougher stance
in the aftermath of the US downgrading which
means that room for policy slippage narrows.
A downgrade in ratings can be costly for a
country that relies on private capital for pub-
lic investment, as Sri Lanka has done in
recent years.
The medium term outlook with regard to
macroeconomic stability is, therefore, criti-
cal. The positive inroads Sri Lanka had made
in fiscal restructuring have continued into
2011 and the government appears to be well
on target to achieve a reduced fiscal deficit
of under 7 per cent in 2011, helped by im-
proved revenue generation. The deficit for
the first half of 2011 was estimated at 3.4
per cent, compared to 3.8 per cent in the
same period a year ago. A stronger fiscal per-
formance will help in maintaining price sta-
As % of GDP 2010 2011
Revenue 4.3 4.4
Recurrent expenditure 5.8 5.6
Public investment 1.6 1.6
Overall budget deficit 3.0 2.7
Table 18.2
Fiscal Trends (January-April)
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Mid-Year Fiscal Position
Report, June 2011.
bility, in spite of rising inflationary pressures
in more recent months.
In June 2011, the CCPI (with 2002 as the
base year) was revised by the DCS to take
the two year average (2006/07) as a base pe-
riod, computed on the basis of the House-
hold Income and Expenditure Survey 2006/
07. The most significant change was a drop
in the weight assigned to food items from
46.7 to 41.0 per cent in the new index. While
the revision was justified on the basis of more
recent data, the lower weight assigned to food
items in the midst of rising food prices, saw
the new CCPI recording a lower rate of in-
flation as compared to the previous index
(Figure 18.2). Nonetheless, with annual in-
flation touching 7 per cent by end June 2011,
ensuring that the country continues to enjoy
a low inflationary environment will be a pri-
ority for the government.
Figure 18.1
Inflation Trends
Source: CBSL, Colombo Consumer Price Index, www.cbsl.gov.lk.
205
Box 18.2
Select Monetary and Financial Indicators (January-June)
% change 2009 2010 2011
Reserve money -2.2 6.4 10.2
Broad money (M
2b
) 8.1 4.2 8.6
Credit to private sector -5.8 6.5 14.0
Rate of Inflation 12.5 3.9 7.0
Source: CBSL, Monthly Economic Indicators, various issues.
The acceleration of credit growth to the pri-
vate sector in the second half of 2010 has
continued into 2011. The onus for the CBSL
will now be to try and cool down credit
growth to prevent the economy from over-
heating. It did so in April 2011 with an in-
crease in the SRR of commercial banks, while
also using moral suasion on commercial
banks to ease on credit allocation, as op-
posed to raising policy interest rates that could
have an impact on the country's growth pros-
pects. For the moment, such a policy stance
may suffice. Nonetheless, it is critical that
as Sri Lanka aims to achieve rapid develop-
ment progress in the coming years, the coun-
try does not lose sight of striking the appro-
priate balance between growth and stability.
A stable macroeconomic outlook will have
a strong bearing on investor confidence in
the Sri Lankan economy, particularly in the
context of disarray in the outlook for the more
advanced economies globally.
Sri Lanka's monetary policy stance in the
coming months will also have an impact on
another fundamental indicator of macroeco-
nomic stability - i.e., the exchange rate. Sri
Lanka has being experiencing a steady nomi-
nal appreciation of the rupee against the US
dollar since the beginning of 2010 (Figure
18.3). Despite carrying a current account
deficit - which suggests that the rupee should
ideally be depreciating - strong net capital
inflows have put upward pressure on the ex-
Figure 18.2
Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Trends
Note: REER = Real Effective Exchange Rate; AWPR =Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate.
Source: CBSL, Monthly Economic Indicators.
206
change rate. The CBSL has intervened in the
foreign exchange market to ensure that the
rupee stays within a pre-determined band.
The policy stance has been to target the ex-
change rate by mopping up capital inflows.
The consequent build-up of foreign exchange
reserves can potentially raise inflationary pres-
sures - i.e., it allows the domestic monetary
base to expand without a corresponding in-
crease in production. If inflationary pressures
are to be countered, interest rates should be
allowed to move up.
Ensuring a stable exchange rate and interest
rate policy regime raises a critical policy di-
lemma for countries that face a surge in for-
eign capital inflows. If an independent mon-
etary policy - i.e., setting interest rates - takes
precedence over an exchange rate target, then
the exchange rate has to be allowed to move
in line with market developments and vice
versa. If global economic growth contracts -
dampening aggregate demand in Sri Lanka -
there could be an easing of credit growth
and any potential build-up of inflationary
pressures. If not, the current monetary and
exchange rate policy stance will need to be
reviewed.
In more recent months, the upward pressure
on the currency has reversed as import ex-
penditures have continued to outpace export
earnings. Efforts by the CBSL to ensure the
stability of the exchange rate have seen a
gradual decline in Sri Lanka's non-borrowed
reserves. Clearly, a stable exchange rate has
a bearing on fiscal outcomes, particularly as
dependence on foreign capital borrowing
rises. Notwithstanding the above, the under-
lying market fundamentals driving move-
ments in the rupee raise concerns. There are
many difficulties in ascertaining what con-
stitutes an equilibrium real exchange rate -
particularly in distinguishing between 'per-
manent' and 'transient' capital flows. What
counts as sustainable levels of net capital
flows is the relevant issue in determining the
equilibrium rate, and any deviation suggests
a misalignment. Such a misalignment can
be costly for longer term export growth.
Sri Lanka needs to be extra vigilant to ensure
a healthy growth in earnings from exports of
goods and services which has a critical bear-
ing in meeting the country's growing foreign
debt service obligations. Although, the coun-
try appears to be comfortably placed with
gross official reserves of US$ 8 billion, these
include net foreign inflows into Treasury bills
and bonds as well as other forms of com-
mercial borrowing. An important lesson from
the debt crises unfolding in the Euro Zone
economies offers a reminder that dependence
on private capital to finance public expendi-
ture can create stresses and strains on an
economy when they are least expected. Thus,
maintaining macroeconomic stability is criti-
cal. Any perceived weakening can have a sig-
nificant impact on investor confidence, mag-
nified by the uncertainties currently gripping
the global economy.

SOE 2011: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

SOE 2011: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

SRI LANKA

State of the Economy

For Sri Lanka, emerging

An important lesson from

Potrebbero piacerti anche

SOE 2011: &#39;Policy Perspectives&#39; (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and &#39;Prospects&#39;

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

SOE 2011: &#39;Policy Perspectives&#39; (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and &#39;Prospects&#39;

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

SRI LANKA

State of the Economy

For Sri Lanka, emerging

An important lesson from

Potrebbero piacerti anche

SOE 2011: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'

SOE 2011: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'