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Rates RV Analytics

Rates Strategy | Asia Ex-Japan


Contributing Strategists
Vivek Rajpal (+91 22 4037 4438)
George Goncalves (+1 212 667 2254)

Helin Gai (+1 212 298 4226)

October 9, 2012

INR Rates RV Analytics


The Daily INR Swap Relative Value Report

Onshore OIS

1
INR (Onshore OIS) Swap Monitor

INR (Onshore OIS) Conventional Spread & Butterfly Report

INR (Onshore OIS) PCA-Weighted Spread & Butterfly Report

NDOIS

14
INR (NDOIS) Swap Monitor

14

INR (NDOIS) Conventional Spread & Butterfly Report

17

INR (NDOIS) PCA-Weighted Spread & Butterfly Report

22

Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Private LTD

See Disclosure Appendix A1 for the Analyst Certification and Other Important Disclosures

INR (Onshore OIS) Swap Monitor

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Swap Rates & 1d Changes


3m

6m

7.85 (-1)

7.78 (0)

3m

7.56 (0)

6m
1y

3m Carry & Rolldown


3m

6m

1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

10y

Spot

(29.1)

(29.3)

(17.0)

(11.6)

(7.6)

(5.6)

(4.1)

(3.7)

(3.0)

7.40 (-2) 7.34 (-3) 7.01 (-3) 6.91 (-3) 6.91 (-3) 6.93 (-3) 6.97 (-3) 6.99 (-3) 7.02 (-3)

3m

(37.8)

(25.3)

(15.9)

(10.2)

(7.1)

(5.2)

(4.0)

(3.7)

(3.0)

7.11 (-3) 7.12 (-4) 7.14 (-4) 6.88 (-3) 6.84 (-3) 6.86 (-3) 6.90 (-3) 6.94 (-3) 6.97 (-3) 7.00 (-3)

6m

(27.7)

(19.3)

(12.3)

(7.0)

(4.8)

(3.2)

(2.4)

(2.4)

(2.0)

6.90 (-4) 6.92 (-3) 6.97 (-3) 6.77 (-2) 6.80 (-3) 6.84 (-3) 6.90 (-3) 6.94 (-3) 6.96 (-3) 6.99 (-3)

1y

(10.0)

(8.1)

(4.6)

(1.7)

(0.6)

0.3

0.1

(0.0)

(0.1)

2y

6.65 (-2) 6.68 (-2) 6.80 (-2) 6.77 (-4) 6.83 (-3) 6.91 (-3) 6.96 (-3) 6.99 (-3) 7.00 (-3) 7.02 (-3)

2y

(5.6)

(0.9)

1.7

2.1

2.8

2.1

1.6

1.3

0.9

3y

6.74 (-4) 6.82 (-5) 6.98 (-5) 6.92 (-4) 6.99 (-4) 7.04 (-3) 7.06 (-3) 7.07 (-3) 7.07 (-3) 7.07 (-3)

3y

6.2

4.8

4.0

4.3

3.1

2.3

1.9

1.6

1.2

5y

7.03 (-3) 7.12 (-3) 7.29 (-3) 7.19 (-3) 7.17 (-3) 7.16 (-3) 7.15 (-3) 7.14 (-3) 7.13 (-3) 7.11 (-3)

5y

5.7

5.0

2.0

1.0

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.2

Spot

1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

10y

7.59 (-3) 7.16 (-2) 7.02 (-2) 6.98 (-3) 6.98 (-3) 7.01 (-3) 7.03 (-3) 7.05 (-3)

3m Z-Scores

Annualized Vol-Adjusted Carry & Rolldown

3m

6m

1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

10y

3m

6m

1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

10y

Spot

(1.1)

(0.6)

(1.6)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

Spot

(2.4)

(2.2)

(1.1)

(0.7)

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

3m

(0.3)

(1.9)

(1.5)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

3m

(2.6)

(1.5)

(0.9)

(0.6)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

6m

(2.7)

(2.2)

(1.6)

(1.3)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

6m

(1.9)

(1.1)

(0.7)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

1y

(0.9)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

1y

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

(0.0)

(0.0)

2y

(1.0)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(1.1)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.1)

(1.1)

2y

(0.3)

(0.0)

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

3y

(1.1)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

3y

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

5y

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

5y

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

INR Spot & Forward Curves

Realized & Implied Paths for 1y, 2y & 5y Rates

8.00

11.00

7.80

10.00
9.00

7.60

8.00
7.40
7.00
7.20

6.00

7.00

5.00
4.00

6.80

3.00
6.60
0y

1y

2y
Spot

Source: Nomura

3y

4y
3m Forward

5y

6y
6m Forward

7y

8y

9y

1y Forward

10y

1y

2y

5y

INR (Onshore OIS) Swap Monitor

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Curve Slopes & 1d Changes


1/2

1/3

3m Carry & Rolldown


1/5

2/5

2/7

2/10

3/5

3/7

3/10

5/10

1/2

1/3

1/5

2/5

2/7

2/10

3/5

3/7

3/10

5/10

Spot

-42.5 (0) -57.5 (0) -61.0 (0) -18.5 (0) -13.5 (0) -11.5 (-1) -3.5 (0)

1.5 (0)

3.5 (-1)

7.0 (0)

Spot

12.3

17.7

23.7

11.4

13.3

14.0

6.0

7.9

8.6

2.6

3m

-33.1 (0) -42.4 (0) -40.9 (0)

-7.8 (0)

-1.4 (0)

1.4 (0)

1.5 (0)

7.9 (0)

10.7 (0)

9.2 (0)

3m

9.4

15.1

20.1

10.7

12.1

12.9

5.0

6.4

7.2

2.2

6m

-26.1 (1) -30.1 (1) -24.8 (1)

1.3 (0)

8.6 (0)

11.7 (0)

5.3 (0)

12.6 (0)

15.7 (0)

10.4 (0)

6m

7.0

12.3

16.2

9.1

9.9

10.3

3.8

4.6

5.0

1.2

1y

-19.7 (0) -17.0 (-1) -7.3 (0)

12.4 (-1) 19.3 (-1) 22.3 (-1)

9.7 (0)

16.5 (0)

19.5 (0)

9.8 (0)

1y

3.5

6.4

8.4

4.9

4.6

4.4

2.0

1.7

1.5

(0.5)

2y

-2.9 (-1)

3.7 (-1)

16.5 (-1)

19.3 (0)

23.2 (0)

24.9 (0)

12.7 (0)

16.7 (0)

18.4 (0)

5.6 (0)

2y

2.6

3.1

3.0

0.4

(0.4)

(0.8)

(0.0)

(0.8)

(1.2)

(1.2)

3y

-6.0 (1)

1.7 (1)

8.4 (2)

14.4 (1)

15.3 (1)

15.0 (1)

6.8 (0)

7.7 (0)

7.4 (0)

0.6 (0)

3y

(0.8)

(0.5)

(2.5)

(1.6)

(2.3)

(2.8)

(1.9)

(2.6)

(3.1)

(1.2)

5y

-10.2 (0) -11.7 (0) -14.3 (0)

-4.1 (0)

-6.1 (0)

-8.2 (0)

-2.6 (0)

-4.6 (0)

-6.7 (0)

-4.1 (0)

5y

(3.0)

(4.1)

(4.6)

(1.6)

(1.8)

(1.9)

(0.5)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.3)

3m Z-Scores

Annualized Vol-Adjusted Carry & Rolldown

1/2

1/3

1/5

2/5

2/7

2/10

3/5

3/7

3/10

5/10

1/2

1/3

1/5

2/5

2/7

2/10

3/5

3/7

3/10

5/10

Spot

0.5

0.2

0.3

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.2

Spot

2.5

2.4

3.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.9

0.9

3m

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

1.1

0.8

0.8

0.3

3m

1.7

1.9

2.4

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.5

1.4

1.6

0.8

6m

0.5

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

1.6

1.3

1.4

0.5

6m

1.2

1.6

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.2

1.1

1.2

0.5

1y

(0.3)

(0.4)

(0.1)

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.9

0.6

0.5

(0.2)

1y

0.5

0.8

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.4

(0.2)

2y

0.1

0.5

0.5

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.2

0.2

0.1

(0.1)

2y

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.1

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.5)

3y

1.2

1.1

0.9

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.4)

(0.6)

(0.7)

(0.6)

3y

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.4)

(0.5)

(0.7)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(0.5)

5y

(0.0)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.2)

5y

(1.4)

(1.6)

(0.8)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Butterflies & 1d Changes


1/2/3

1/2/5

3m Carry & Rolldown


1/2/3

1/2/5

1/3/5

1/3/7

2/3/5

2/5/7

3/5/7

2/5/10

3/5/10

2/7/10

Spot

-27.5 (0) -24.0 (1) -54.0 (0) -59.0 (0) -11.5 (0) -23.5 (0)

1/3/5

1/3/7

2/3/5

2/5/7

-8.5 (0)

3/5/7

-25.5 (0) -10.5 (0) -15.5 (0)

2/5/10

3/5/10

2/7/10
Spot

6.9

0.9

11.7

9.8

(0.5)

9.5

4.1

8.8

3.4

12.6

3m

-23.8 (1) -25.3 (1) -43.8 (1) -50.3 (1) -10.8 (0) -14.3 (0)

-5.0 (0)

-17.0 (0)

-7.7 (0)

-4.1 (0)

3m

3.7

(1.3)

10.2

8.7

0.7

9.2

3.5

8.5

2.8

11.4

6m

-22.1 (1) -27.4 (1) -35.4 (1) -42.6 (1)

-9.3 (0)

-6.0 (0)

-2.0 (0)

-9.1 (0)

-5.1 (0)

5.5 (0)

6m

1.7

(2.1)

8.5

7.7

1.4

8.3

3.0

7.9

2.7

9.5

1y

-22.5 (1) -32.2 (1) -26.7 (-1) -33.5 (-1) -7.0 (-1)

5.6 (-1)

2.9 (0)

2.6 (-1)

-0.1 (0)

16.3 (-1)

1y

0.6

(1.4)

4.4

4.7

0.9

5.3

2.4

5.4

2.5

4.7

2y

-9.4 (-1) -22.2 (-2) -9.0 (-1) -13.0 (-1) -6.2 (0)

15.4 (0)

8.8 (0)

13.7 (0)

7.1 (0)

21.5 (0)

2y

2.2

2.3

3.1

3.9

0.5

1.1

0.7

1.6

1.1

0.1

3y

-13.6 (1) -20.3 (1)

-5.1 (1)

-6.1 (1)

0.9 (0)

13.4 (0)

5.8 (0)

13.7 (0)

6.1 (0)

15.7 (1)

3y

(1.1)

0.8

1.4

2.1

2.2

(1.0)

(1.3)

(0.5)

(0.8)

(1.8)

5y

-8.7 (0)

-6.1 (0)

-9.1 (0)

-7.1 (0)

1.1 (0)

-2.1 (0)

-0.6 (0)

0.0 (0)

1.5 (0)

-4.0 (0)

5y

(1.9)

(1.4)

(3.5)

(3.3)

(0.5)

(1.3)

(0.3)

(1.3)

(0.2)

(1.8)

1/2/3

1/2/5

1/3/5

1/3/7

2/3/5

2/5/7

3/5/7

2/5/10

3/5/10

2/7/10

Spot

0.9

0.6

0.1

0.1

(0.4)

(0.1)

0.3

(0.1)

0.3

0.1

Spot

3m

0.6

0.3

0.1

0.1

(0.5)

0.2

0.7

0.2

0.7

0.3

3m

6m

0.6

0.2

0.2

0.1

(0.7)

0.7

1.1

0.6

1.0

0.7

1y

(0.2)

(0.4)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.9)

0.3

1.1

0.5

1.2

2y

(0.3)

(0.4)

0.4

0.5

0.7

1.1

0.3

1.2

3y

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.3

0.8

0.0

(0.0)

5y

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.4

(0.3)

(0.3)

3m Z-Scores

Source: Nomura

Annualized Vol-Adjusted Carry & Rolldown


1/2/3

1/2/5

1/3/5

1/3/7

2/3/5

2/5/7

3/5/7

2/5/10

3/5/10

2/7/10

1.2

0.1

1.5

1.1

(0.1)

1.5

0.9

1.4

0.8

1.8

0.7

(0.2)

1.2

1.0

0.2

1.6

0.8

1.4

0.6

1.7

6m

0.3

(0.3)

1.1

1.0

0.4

1.6

0.7

1.5

0.6

1.5

0.3

1y

0.1

(0.2)

0.6

0.6

0.2

1.0

0.7

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.9

2y

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

(0.2)

3y

(0.1)

0.1

0.1

0.2

1.4

(0.1)

(0.4)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

5y

(0.5)

(0.2)

(1.3)

(0.9)

(0.5)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.3)

(0.1)

(0.3)
2

INR (Onshore OIS) Swap Monitor

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Spot Curve 3m Range

Realized & Implied Paths for 2s5s

2s5s vs 2s

200.0

200.0

150.0

150.0

100.0

100.0

7.30

50.0

50.0

7.10

0.0

8.10
7.90
7.70
7.50

0.0

6.90

(50.0)

(50.0)

6.70

(100.0)

6.50
3m

6m

1y

2y

3y

5th %tile
75th %tile
Spot

4y

5y

6y

7y

8y

25th %tile
95th %tile
3m Forward

9y

(100.0)

10y

Median
max
6m Forward

2s5s

1y CMS 3m Range

2011

Implied Path

4
2010

5
Past 6m

6
6m Forward

Realized & Implied Paths for 1s2s

8.10

1y Forward

2y Forward

10
Current

1s2s vs 1s
100

100.0

7.90

80
50.0

7.70

60
40

7.50

0.0

20

7.30

0
(50.0)

7.10

(20)
(40)

6.90

(100.0)

(60)

6.70

(80)
(150.0)

6.50
Spot

1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

5th %tile

25th %tile

Median

95th %tile

max

CMS

Source: Nomura

8y

9y

(100)

10y

10

11

75th %tile
1s2s

Implied Path

2011

2010

Past 6m

6m Forward

1y Forward

2y Forward

Current

INR (Onshore OIS) Conventional Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Structure

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

Total Return Analysis


Abs

%tile

Half

Sprd4
-68.0

1s2s

Life5

Box Plot

Exp.

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

36.5

Spot

(100)

100

(57)

29

(42.5)

0.0

(0.0)

(2.6)

(25.4)

(43.3)

28.8

(0.6)

39.3

17.1

96.0

(20.1)

(0.6)

10.6

1.7

12.3

3m

(100)

100

(57)

29

(33.1)

0.5

(0.8)

(2.7)

(14.7)

(30.4)

24.0

(0.8)

29.0

18.4

92.2

(9.1)

(0.3)

0.0

9.4

9.4

6m

(100)

100

(57)

30

(26.1)

0.9

(1.3)

(0.2)

(8.6)

(20.9)

20.3

(0.9)

14.9

17.5

80.7

(0.4)

(0.0)

0.0

7.0

7.0

1y

(100)

100

(57)

30

(19.7)

0.2

(3.1)

1.7

(4.2)

(10.7)

17.5

(0.9)

19.8

15.5

50.7

9.9

0.6

0.0

3.5

3.5

-83.0

1s3s

57.9

Spot

(100)

100

(57)

20

(57.5)

0.0

(2.5)

(3.0)

(26.4)

(63.5)

43.1

(0.7)

36.3

31.1

125.5

(38.0)

(0.7)

13.5

4.2

17.7

3m

(100)

100

(57)

20

(42.4)

0.4

(2.9)

(2.5)

(12.6)

(42.7)

36.4

(0.8)

23.6

29.8

114.4

(24.9)

(0.5)

0.0

15.1

15.1

6m

(100)

100

(57)

21

(30.1)

0.7

(2.7)

0.2

(4.7)

(24.8)

30.9

(0.8)

17.4

25.4

86.9

(8.5)

(0.2)

0.0

12.3

12.3

1y

(100)

100

(57)

21

(17.0)

(0.5)

(3.3)

1.6

0.5

(9.1)

24.3

(0.7)

23.8

17.5

53.9

6.6

0.3

0.0

6.4

6.4

-106.5

1s5s

88.1

Spot

(100)

100

(57)

13

(61.0)

(0.5)

(3.0)

(2.5)

(21.8)

(76.2)

58.9

(0.7)

36.1

39.2

132.1

(53.2)

(0.8)

17.0

6.7

23.7

3m

(100)

100

(57)

13

(40.9)

0.1

(3.0)

(1.3)

(5.1)

(47.6)

49.6

(0.7)

27.8

35.8

118.8

(39.8)

(0.7)

0.0

20.1

20.1

6m

(100)

100

(57)

13

(24.8)

0.6

(2.4)

2.2

4.1

(23.6)

40.9

(0.7)

26.0

28.9

91.7

(18.0)

(0.4)

0.0

16.2

16.2

1y

(100)

100

(57)

13

(7.3)

(0.4)

(2.9)

3.9

9.7

(1.6)

28.3

(0.6)

33.5

17.0

55.1

2.3

0.1

0.0

8.4

8.4

-22.0

2s3s

26.0

Spot

(100)

100

(29)

20

(15.0)

(0.0)

(2.5)

(0.5)

(1.0)

(11.7)

14.9

(0.9)

15.9

14.0

97.6

(2.8)

(0.1)

2.9

2.6

5.4

3m

(100)

100

(29)

20

(9.3)

(0.1)

(2.0)

0.1

2.2

(5.8)

12.7

(0.9)

14.7

11.5

84.8

(3.9)

(0.3)

0.0

5.7

5.7

6m

(100)

100

(30)

21

(4.0)

(0.3)

(1.3)

0.4

3.8

(1.0)

10.7

(0.7)

23.2

7.8

62.0

(2.6)

(0.2)

0.0

5.3

5.3

1y

(100)

100

(30)

21

2.7

(0.7)

(0.2)

(0.1)

4.7

3.2

8.2

(0.2)

44.5

1.9

28.6

(0.7)

(0.1)

0.0

2.9

2.9

-41.0

2s5s

62.0

Spot

(100)

100

(29)

13

(18.5)

(0.5)

(3.0)

0.1

3.6

(20.8)

30.7

(0.7)

30.2

22.1

108.0

(16.8)

(0.5)

6.4

5.0

11.4

3m

(100)

100

(29)

13

(7.8)

(0.4)

(2.2)

1.4

9.6

(7.6)

26.0

(0.7)

29.4

17.4

91.5

(13.4)

(0.5)

0.0

10.7

10.7

6m

(100)

100

(30)

13

1.3

(0.4)

(1.1)

2.4

12.7

2.1

21.0

(0.5)

40.7

11.4

70.9

(9.1)

(0.4)

0.0

9.1

9.1

1y

(100)

100

(30)

13

12.4

(0.6)

0.2

2.2

13.9

10.9

12.6

(0.1)

53.6

1.5

38.1

(4.5)

(0.4)

0.0

4.9

4.9

-42.0

2s7s

74.0

Spot

(100)

100

(29)

10

(13.5)

(0.5)

(3.0)

0.6

8.3

(16.8)

32.8

(0.7)

34.1

21.8

104.7

(22.3)

(0.6)

8.2

5.1

13.3

3m

(100)

100

(29)

10

(1.4)

(0.4)

(2.1)

1.8

14.7

(1.1)

26.6

(0.6)

36.1

16.1

80.9

(15.0)

(0.5)

0.0

12.1

12.1

6m

(100)

100

(30)

10

8.6

(0.3)

(0.9)

3.0

17.9

8.9

20.9

(0.4)

45.7

9.3

58.7

(9.2)

(0.5)

0.0

9.9

9.9

1y

(100)

100

(30)

10

19.3

(0.6)

0.4

2.3

18.0

15.7

12.3

0.1

57.4

1.3

29.7

5.6

0.6

0.0

4.6

4.6

-46.0

2s10s

87.0

Spot

(100)

100

(29)

(11.5)

(0.5)

(3.0)

0.1

10.3

(13.3)

34.9

(0.6)

36.7

21.8

87.2

(16.9)

(0.5)

9.4

4.6

14.0

3m

(100)

100

(29)

1.4

(0.4)

(2.0)

1.4

16.9

2.2

28.0

(0.6)

38.3

15.6

67.2

(11.8)

(0.5)

0.0

12.9

12.9

6m

(100)

100

(30)

11.7

(0.2)

(0.8)

2.6

20.0

11.7

21.7

(0.4)

47.9

8.3

48.7

(7.6)

(0.4)

0.0

10.3

10.3

1y

(100)

100

(30)

22.3

(0.6)

0.5

1.9

19.4

17.3

12.7

0.2

60.4

2.8

24.9

6.3

0.8

0.0

4.4

4.4

78.3

(6.7)

(0.4)

3.5

2.4

6.0

-26.5

3s5s
Spot

(100)

Source: Nomura

100

(20)

13

(3.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

0.5

4.6

(4.6)

16.4

(0.5)

43.5

8.1

36.5

INR (Onshore OIS) Conventional Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Total Return Analysis


Abs

Half

Exp.

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

%tile

Sprd4

3m

(100)

100

(20)

13

1.5

(0.4)

(0.1)

1.2

7.4

0.6

13.8

(0.4)

47.3

6.0

72.2

(5.4)

6m

(100)

100

(21)

13

5.3

(0.1)

0.2

2.0

8.9

4.8

10.6

(0.3)

53.6

3.6

56.5

(3.3)

1y

(100)

100

(21)

13

9.7

0.1

0.4

2.3

9.2

8.7

4.7

0.1

61.2

0.5

17.0

Structure

-27.0

3s7s

Life5

Box Plot

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

(0.4)

0.0

5.0

5.0

(0.3)

0.0

3.8

3.8

1.6

0.6

0.0

2.0

2.0

53.0

Spot

(100)

100

(20)

10

1.5

(0.5)

(0.5)

1.0

9.3

(0.5)

18.7

(0.4)

43.9

7.8

75.0

(11.0)

(0.6)

5.3

2.5

7.9

3m

(100)

100

(20)

10

7.9

(0.3)

(0.1)

1.7

12.6

6.4

14.7

(0.3)

48.9

4.6

60.6

(7.7)

(0.6)

0.0

6.4

6.4

6m

(100)

100

(21)

10

12.6

0.0

0.4

2.6

14.0

11.0

10.7

(0.1)

56.6

1.4

41.2

(4.6)

(0.5)

0.0

4.6

4.6

1y

(100)

100

(21)

10

16.5

0.2

0.6

2.4

13.3

12.9

5.3

0.6

81.3

3.2

12.6

3.9

1.5

0.0

1.7

1.7

-30.0

3s10s

66.0

Spot

(100)

100

(20)

3.5

(0.5)

(0.5)

0.5

11.3

1.4

21.0

(0.4)

44.5

7.8

61.0

(8.7)

(0.5)

6.5

2.1

8.6

3m

(100)

100

(20)

10.7

(0.3)

(0.0)

1.3

14.8

8.8

16.3

(0.3)

50.8

4.1

47.3

(6.6)

(0.5)

0.0

7.2

7.2

6m

(100)

100

(21)

15.7

0.0

0.5

2.2

16.2

13.2

11.9

(0.0)

57.4

0.5

31.5

(4.5)

(0.5)

0.0

5.0

5.0

1y

(100)

100

(21)

19.5

0.2

0.8

2.0

14.8

14.3

6.5

0.7

81.7

4.7

12.3

5.3

1.7

0.0

1.5

1.5

-3.1

5s7s

17.5

Spot

(100)

100

(13)

10

5.0

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.5

4.7

4.6

2.9

0.1

49.1

0.3

7.6

0.7

0.6

1.8

0.1

1.9

3m

(100)

100

(13)

10

6.5

0.0

0.1

0.5

5.1

5.0

2.5

0.5

70.7

1.3

7.4

1.7

1.8

0.0

1.5

1.5

6m

(100)

100

(13)

10

7.3

0.1

0.2

0.5

5.2

5.1

2.6

0.8

77.3

2.1

9.1

2.3

2.0

0.0

0.8

0.8

1y

(100)

100

(13)

10

6.8

0.1

0.2

0.1

4.1

4.1

3.0

0.9

86.0

2.8

18.9

2.6

1.3

0.0

(0.4)

(0.4)

Spot

(100)

100

(13)

7.0

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

6.7

6.0

5.5

0.1

48.7

0.3

12.9

1.4

0.5

3.0

(0.3)

2.6

3m

(100)

100

(13)

9.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

7.4

6.9

4.6

0.4

69.3

1.8

11.1

2.6

1.3

0.0

2.2

2.2

6m

(100)

100

(13)

10.4

0.1

0.3

0.2

7.3

7.1

4.3

0.7

76.5

3.1

11.2

3.5

1.7

0.0

1.2

1.2

1y

(100)

100

(13)

9.8

0.1

0.3

(0.2)

5.5

5.5

4.7

0.9

83.3

4.3

17.3

4.0

1.4

0.0

(0.5)

(0.5)

Spot

(50)

(50)

(28)

29

(10)

(13.8)

0.0

1.2

(1.1)

(12.2)

(13.6)

7.8

(0.2)

46.7

1.5

34.7

(2.2)

(0.3)

3.9

(0.4)

3.4

3m

(50)

(50)

(29)

29

(10)

(11.9)

0.3

0.6

(1.4)

(8.4)

(9.7)

6.2

(0.6)

35.9

3.5

32.2

1.6

0.3

0.0

1.9

1.9

6m

(50)

(50)

(28)

30

(10)

(11.0)

0.6

(0.0)

(0.3)

(6.2)

(7.5)

5.1

(0.9)

16.6

4.8

34.9

3.9

0.9

0.0

0.9

0.9

1y

(50)

(50)

(28)

30

(10)

(11.2)

0.5

(1.4)

0.9

(4.4)

(5.5)

6.2

(1.1)

15.3

6.8

26.6

6.6

1.4

0.0

0.3

0.3

-5.5

5s10s

-28.3

1s2s3s

-23.8

1s2s5s

30.5

8.2

6.2

Spot

(50)

(50)

(28)

29

(6)

(12.0)

0.3

1.5

(1.3)

(14.5)

(14.3)

4.5

0.6

76.1

2.5

9.7

2.6

1.3

2.1

(1.7)

0.4

3m

(50)

(50)

(29)

29

(6)

(12.6)

0.4

0.7

(2.0)

(12.1)

(12.1)

3.4

(0.1)

51.6

0.5

7.1

0.6

0.5

0.0

(0.6)

(0.6)

6m

(50)

(50)

(28)

30

(7)

(13.7)

0.7

(0.1)

(1.3)

(10.6)

(10.6)

3.2

(1.0)

16.3

3.1

9.2

3.4

2.4

0.0

(1.1)

(1.1)

1y

(50)

(50)

(28)

30

(7)

(16.1)

0.4

(1.7)

(0.2)

(9.0)

(9.6)

5.7

(1.2)

12.1

7.0

22.1

7.5

1.8

0.0

(0.7)

(0.7)

-39.2

1s3s5s

17.9

Spot

(50)

(50)

(28)

20

(6)

(27.0)

0.2

(1.0)

(1.8)

(15.5)

(22.4)

14.1

(0.8)

27.0

11.5

77.3

(2.8)

(0.2)

5.0

0.9

5.9

3m

(50)

(50)

(29)

20

(6)

(21.9)

0.4

(1.4)

(1.9)

(10.0)

(16.3)

11.9

(1.0)

13.1

11.9

73.6

0.1

0.0

0.0

5.1

5.1

6m

(50)

(50)

(28)

21

(7)

(17.7)

0.4

(1.5)

(0.9)

(6.8)

(11.6)

10.7

(1.0)

13.5

10.9

59.7

2.9

0.3

0.0

4.2

4.2

Source: Nomura

INR (Onshore OIS) Conventional Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

%tile

Sprd4

(50)

(50)

(28)

21

(7)

(13.3)

(0.3)

(1.9)

(0.3)

(4.4)

(7.6)

10.3

(0.9)

15.7

9.0

Structure
1y

Total Return Analysis


Abs

Half

-9.9

2s3s5s

Life5

Box Plot

Exp.

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

42.7

6.0

0.6

0.0

2.2

2.2

7.3

Spot

(50)

(50)

(14)

20

(6)

(5.7)

0.2

(1.0)

(0.5)

(2.8)

(2.7)

3.1

(0.9)

17.8

3.0

14.8

3.1

1.8

(0.3)

0.1

(0.3)

3m

(50)

(50)

(15)

20

(6)

(5.4)

0.2

(1.0)

(0.5)

(2.6)

(2.6)

2.5

(1.1)

11.7

2.7

15.4

2.6

1.8

0.0

0.4

0.4

6m

(50)

(50)

(15)

21

(7)

(4.7)

(0.1)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(2.5)

(2.5)

1.6

(1.3)

8.7

2.1

7.5

2.0

3.2

0.0

0.7

0.7

1y

(50)

(50)

(15)

21

(7)

(3.5)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(1.2)

(2.3)

(2.3)

2.3

(0.5)

24.4

1.2

6.6

1.1

1.3

0.0

0.4

0.4

-20.0

2s5s7s

28.0

Spot

(50)

(50)

(14)

13

(5)

(11.7)

(0.2)

(1.5)

(0.2)

(0.6)

(10.1)

14.4

(0.8)

23.8

11.2

89.2

(2.2)

(0.1)

2.3

2.4

4.7

3m

(50)

(50)

(15)

13

(5)

(7.2)

(0.2)

(1.1)

0.4

2.2

(5.6)

12.9

(0.7)

22.6

9.4

85.7

(3.1)

(0.2)

0.0

4.6

4.6

6m

(50)

(50)

(15)

13

(5)

(3.0)

(0.2)

(0.6)

1.0

3.8

(1.5)

10.8

(0.6)

34.1

6.7

70.6

(2.6)

(0.2)

0.0

4.2

4.2

1y

(50)

(50)

(15)

13

(5)

2.8

(0.4)

0.0

1.0

4.9

3.1

6.8

(0.3)

50.4

2.1

43.9

(1.5)

(0.3)

0.0

2.6

2.6

-18.8

2s5s10s

27.0

Spot

(50)

(50)

(14)

13

(4)

(12.7)

(0.2)

(1.5)

0.0

(1.5)

(9.9)

13.5

(0.8)

22.2

11.2

90.5

(1.4)

(0.1)

1.7

2.7

4.4

3m

(50)

(50)

(15)

13

(4)

(8.5)

(0.2)

(1.1)

0.7

1.1

(6.1)

12.4

(0.8)

20.6

9.6

91.0

(2.6)

(0.2)

0.0

4.2

4.2

6m

(50)

(50)

(15)

13

(4)

(4.5)

(0.2)

(0.7)

1.1

2.7

(2.2)

10.6

(0.7)

26.8

7.2

74.3

(2.1)

(0.2)

0.0

4.0

4.0

1y

(50)

(50)

(15)

13

(4)

1.3

(0.4)

(0.1)

1.2

4.2

2.5

7.1

(0.4)

46.3

2.9

44.6

(1.0)

(0.1)

0.0

2.7

2.7

Notes
1. Butterflies are 50/50-weighted and curves are 1-to-1.
2. Notional amount for the belly of a butterfly trade (left leg of a curve trade) is fixed at USD 100,000
3. Model average is the long-term equilibrium level as implied by Nomura's Statistical Mean-Reversion Model
4. Spread is the absolute difference between current level and life-time average
5. Half-life is the number of days for the time series to mean-revert toward long-term average by 50%, as computed by the Statistical Mean-Reversion Model
6. Expected return includes mean reversion toward life-time average, RD&C, and transaction cost; the trade horizon is assumed to be two times the half-life or the maturity of the shortest leg, whichever occurs first
7. Information ratio is annualized expected return divided by annualized historical volatility
8. Carry and rolldown assume receiving the belly
9. Box plots show current value (red diamond), min, max, average, and the 25th & 75th percentiles
current

min
25th
percentile

Source: Nomura

max

avg
75th percentile

INR (Onshore OIS) Conventional Spread Report

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Best Information Ratio - 6m Forward 5s7s (100/-100)


15

Highest Z-Score - 1y Forward 5s7s (100/-100)


10

13

23

18

13

11
9

8
4

7
2

(3)
(8)

(13)

(2)

(1)

(4)

Spot 1s2s (100/-100)

(18)
(23)

Spot 1s3s (100/-100)

22

53

17

33

(3)

13

(8)
(18)

(7)

(28)

(23)

(38)

(43)

(27)
(47)

(48)

(67)
(63)

(58)
(68)

(107)

Spot 2s5s (100/-100)


59

39

13
8

(87)

(83)

Spot 2s3s (100/-100)

18

Spot 1s5s (100/-100)


73

37

12

23

Lowest Z-Score - Spot 2s3s (100/-100)

19

Spot 3s5s (100/-100)


33
23
13

3
(3)

3
(2)

(8)
(13)

(7)
(22)
(17)

(18)
(23)

(42)

(27)

Source: Nomura
7

INR (Onshore OIS) Conventional Butterfly Report

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Best Information Ratio - Spot 2s3s5s (50/50)

Highest Z-Score - Spot 1s2s5s (50/50)

6.8

Lowest Z-Score - Spot 2s3s5s (50/50)


7

(4.3)

4.8

2.8

3
(9.3)

0.8

(1.3)

(1)

(14.3)

(3.3)

(3)

(5.3)

(5)

(19.3)

(7.3)

(7)

(9.3)

(24.3)

Spot 1s2s3s (50/50)

(9)

Spot 1s2s5s (50/50)

Spot 1s3s5s (50/50)


5

(4)

(4)

(5)
(9)

(9)

(10)
(15)

(14)

(14)

(20)

(19)

(25)
(19)

(30)

(24)

(35)
(29)

(24)

Spot 2s3s5s (50/50)

(40)

Spot 2s5s7s (50/50)

Spot 2s5s10s (50/50)

25

26

20

21

15

16

10

11

(1)
(3)
(5)

(1)

(6)

(4)

(11)

(9)

(7)

(16)

(14)

(9)

(21)

(19)

Source: Nomura
8

INR (Onshore OIS) PCA-Weighted Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Structure

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

Total Return Analysis


Abs

%tile

Half

Sprd4
54.1

1s2s

Life5

Box Plot

Exp.

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

281.4

Spot

100

(72)

57

(21)

246.5

(0.7)

(1.4)

(2.7)

236.3

253.5

32.2

0.3

43.9

10.2

70.9

(28.2)

(1.0)

(14.2)

(2.9)

(17.1)

3m

100

(69)

57

(20)

248.3

(1.3)

(1.1)

(3.5)

239.6

250.7

26.1

0.3

39.9

8.7

52.6

(15.2)

(0.7)

0.0

(14.3)

(14.3)

6m

100

(75)

57

(22)

195.6

(1.7)

(0.5)

(5.1)

188.0

195.4

20.7

0.4

45.5

7.5

42.9

(6.0)

(0.4)

0.0

(10.0)

(10.0)

1y

100

(88)

57

(27)

100.6

(0.5)

2.0

(4.2)

91.5

96.2

17.0

0.5

62.6

9.1

38.5

4.2

0.3

0.0

(4.0)

(4.0)

80.3

1s3s

357.6

Spot

100

(63)

57

(13)

314.7

(0.9)

(0.3)

(4.0)

297.7

323.2

42.3

0.4

47.7

17.1

77.8

(37.0)

(1.0)

(17.1)

(4.9)

(22.0)

3m

100

(61)

57

(12)

311.9

(1.5)

(0.3)

(5.3)

298.8

314.5

34.3

0.4

42.7

13.0

56.3

(20.9)

(0.8)

0.0

(19.1)

(19.1)

6m

100

(68)

57

(14)

252.3

(1.7)

(0.2)

(7.1)

242.7

252.8

28.0

0.3

45.3

9.6

44.2

(10.7)

(0.5)

0.0

(14.6)

(14.6)

1y

100

(83)

57

(17)

135.6

(0.0)

1.7

(5.3)

127.9

134.1

22.4

0.3

57.6

7.7

38.2

(0.3)

(0.0)

0.0

(6.7)

(6.7)

76.6

1s5s

408.4

Spot

100

(59)

57

(7)

348.3

(0.7)

(0.3)

(5.1)

328.2

360.7

51.7

0.4

43.9

20.1

81.1

(46.7)

(1.1)

(19.6)

(6.4)

(26.0)

3m

100

(55)

57

(7)

350.1

(1.5)

(0.7)

(7.1)

336.2

355.8

41.5

0.3

38.3

13.9

58.8

(27.7)

(0.8)

0.0

(22.4)

(22.4)

6m

100

(62)

57

(8)

285.6

(1.8)

(0.9)

(9.5)

276.4

289.0

34.0

0.3

41.1

9.3

46.4

(16.1)

(0.6)

0.0

(17.4)

(17.4)

1y

100

(81)

57

(11)

137.3

(0.2)

1.2

(7.4)

130.8

138.0

25.5

0.3

51.6

6.6

39.4

(3.8)

(0.2)

0.0

(8.4)

(8.4)

25.3

2s3s

110.0

Spot

100

(89)

29

(18)

95.4

(0.3)

1.6

(1.7)

85.8

93.8

14.7

0.7

71.3

9.6

66.7

(4.6)

(0.3)

(4.0)

(2.8)

(6.8)

3m

100

(88)

29

(18)

91.7

(0.3)

1.1

(2.5)

85.4

90.3

12.1

0.5

57.6

6.3

49.5

(4.6)

(0.5)

0.0

(6.9)

(6.9)

6m

100

(90)

30

(18)

75.2

(0.1)

0.4

(2.6)

72.4

75.3

9.9

0.3

45.1

2.8

37.1

(4.3)

(0.6)

0.0

(6.0)

(6.0)

1y

100

(94)

30

(20)

39.8

0.5

(0.4)

(1.2)

41.3

42.3

7.5

(0.2)

38.1

1.6

22.2

3.7

0.8

0.0

(3.0)

(3.0)

16.2

2s5s

183.2

Spot

100

(82)

29

(10)

142.3

(0.0)

1.6

(3.4)

128.4

144.8

27.8

0.5

50.8

13.9

74.1

(15.3)

(0.6)

(7.5)

(4.9)

(12.4)

3m

100

(80)

29

(10)

147.0

(0.2)

0.5

(5.1)

139.4

149.0

22.6

0.3

39.7

7.6

54.2

(12.5)

(0.7)

0.0

(11.7)

(11.7)

6m

100

(82)

30

(11)

119.5

(0.2)

(0.4)

(5.8)

117.2

123.0

18.0

0.1

35.7

2.3

42.2

(10.6)

(0.8)

0.0

(9.7)

(9.7)

1y

100

(92)

30

(12)

41.7

0.4

(0.9)

(3.6)

44.6

46.6

11.5

(0.2)

35.9

2.9

29.8

7.5

0.9

0.0

(4.9)

(4.9)

-27.9

2s7s

165.9

Spot

100

(83)

29

(8)

130.6

0.0

1.7

(3.6)

116.5

134.2

29.8

0.5

50.0

14.1

76.1

(19.5)

(0.7)

(9.0)

(5.0)

(13.9)

3m

100

(82)

29

(8)

124.8

(0.2)

0.6

(5.1)

117.2

127.2

23.6

0.3

40.9

7.6

54.3

(14.3)

(0.7)

0.0

(12.8)

(12.8)

6m

100

(86)

30

(9)

90.8

(0.2)

(0.3)

(5.6)

88.6

94.4

18.7

0.1

36.9

2.2

41.4

(11.2)

(0.8)

0.0

(10.3)

(10.3)

1y

100

(97)

30

(10)

3.2

0.5

(0.7)

(2.9)

6.2

8.2

12.0

(0.3)

37.1

3.0

28.0

7.0

0.8

0.0

(4.6)

(4.6)

-55.3

2s10s

158.4

Spot

100

(85)

29

(6)

118.7

0.0

1.8

(2.9)

103.9

121.9

31.9

0.5

50.2

14.8

69.2

(16.9)

(0.6)

(9.9)

(4.6)

(14.5)

3m

100

(84)

29

(6)

112.4

(0.1)

0.7

(4.4)

104.5

114.8

25.2

0.3

41.3

7.9

50.2

(13.3)

(0.7)

0.0

(13.4)

(13.4)

6m

100

(88)

30

(7)

75.6

(0.2)

(0.2)

(5.0)

73.4

79.5

19.8

0.1

37.5

2.2

38.3

(10.5)

(0.7)

0.0

(10.6)

(10.6)

1y

100

(100)

30

(8)

(20.2)

0.6

(0.6)

(2.0)

(17.3)

(15.2)

12.7

(0.2)

38.7

3.0

24.8

6.4

0.8

0.0

(4.4)

(4.4)

61.7

(7.6)

(0.6)

(4.0)

(2.4)

(6.4)

-14.6

3s5s
Spot

100

Source: Nomura

(93)

20

(12)

52.9

0.3

(0.1)

(1.8)

48.1

55.3

15.3

0.3

40.9

4.8

83.4

INR (Onshore OIS) PCA-Weighted Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Structure

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

62.7

0.1

(0.6)

(3.0)

61.3

65.7

49.4

(0.2)

(0.9)

(3.6)

50.0

52.5

2.1

(0.2)

(0.6)

(2.6)

3.5

3.9

Curr

3m

100

(91)

20

(12)

6m

100

(92)

21

(12)

1y

100

(98)

21

(13)

Total Return Analysis


Abs

Half

Exp.

ZScore

%tile

Sprd4

12.3

0.1

34.3

1.4

49.2

(7.1)

9.3

(0.1)

31.8

0.6

38.1

5.5

4.6

(0.3)

32.4

1.4

15.5
-61.7

3s7s

Life5

Box Plot

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

(0.7)

0.0

(5.4)

(5.4)

0.8

0.0

(4.1)

(4.1)

2.4

0.9

0.0

(2.0)

(2.0)

67.3

Spot

100

(94)

20

(9)

39.7

0.3

0.0

(2.1)

34.6

42.9

17.7

0.3

44.1

5.1

63.9

(11.2)

(0.7)

(5.6)

(2.5)

(8.1)

3m

100

(93)

20

(9)

37.6

0.1

(0.5)

(2.9)

36.1

40.9

13.7

0.1

37.5

1.5

49.3

(8.9)

(0.8)

0.0

(6.7)

(6.7)

6m

100

(96)

21

(10)

17.3

(0.1)

(0.8)

(3.4)

18.0

20.6

10.2

(0.1)

34.3

0.7

35.7

6.0

0.8

0.0

(4.7)

(4.7)

1y

100

(103)

21

(11)

(39.0)

(0.1)

(0.3)

(1.8)

(37.5)

(37.0)

5.3

(0.3)

42.1

1.5

12.4

2.2

0.8

0.0

(1.7)

(1.7)

-91.0

3s10s

58.9

Spot

100

(96)

20

(7)

26.3

0.4

0.2

(1.3)

20.5

29.4

20.3

0.3

45.1

5.8

56.0

(9.5)

(0.6)

(6.6)

(2.1)

(8.7)

3m

100

(95)

20

(7)

23.5

0.2

(0.4)

(2.2)

21.6

26.8

15.6

0.1

40.3

1.8

42.4

(7.9)

(0.7)

0.0

(7.3)

(7.3)

6m

100

(98)

21

(8)

0.4

(0.1)

(0.7)

(2.7)

1.1

3.8

11.6

(0.1)

36.5

0.6

30.0

5.4

0.7

0.0

(5.1)

(5.1)

1y

100

(106)

21

(8)

(64.0)

0.0

(0.2)

(0.8)

(62.5)

(62.0)

6.2

(0.2)

46.9

1.5

10.6

2.0

0.7

0.0

(1.5)

(1.5)

-47.9

5s7s
Spot

100

(101)

13

(10)

(14.2)

0.0

0.1

(0.3)

(14.6)

(14.4)

3.0

3m

100

(103)

13

(10)

(27.7)

0.1

0.2

0.1

(27.8)

(27.7)

6m

100

(104)

13

(10)

(34.8)

0.0

0.1

0.2

(34.7)

(34.6)

1y

100

(105)

13

(11)

(41.8)

0.1

0.2

0.8

(41.7)

(41.6)

-8.2

0.1

57.8

0.3

8.3

(0.1)

(0.1)

(1.7)

(0.1)

(1.9)

2.4

0.0

56.2

0.1

6.5

(0.2)

(0.2)

0.0

(1.4)

(1.4)

2.1

(0.1)

50.8

0.1

5.6

0.3

0.4

0.0

(0.7)

(0.7)

1.9

(0.1)

53.2

0.1

6.7

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.4

-77.7

5s10s

-17.2

Spot

100

(103)

13

(8)

(28.7)

0.1

0.2

0.6

(29.8)

(29.1)

5.9

0.2

59.0

1.1

14.3

(0.0)

(0.0)

(2.8)

0.3

(2.5)

3m

100

(105)

13

(8)

(43.2)

0.1

0.3

0.9

(43.7)

(43.2)

4.6

0.1

61.4

0.4

10.9

(0.2)

(0.1)

0.0

(2.1)

(2.1)

6m

100

(106)

13

(8)

(53.2)

0.1

0.2

1.0

(53.1)

(52.8)

3.9

(0.0)

51.0

0.1

8.2

0.3

0.2

0.0

(1.1)

(1.1)

1y

100

(108)

13

(9)

(67.2)

0.2

0.4

1.8

(67.1)

(67.0)

3.2

(0.0)

56.4

0.1

6.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.5

0.5

-25.7

1s2s3s

13.8

Spot

(34)

(67)

(19)

29

(13)

(11.4)

0.0

1.7

(0.4)

(15.3)

(15.2)

3.4

1.1

89.8

3.8

10.5

4.1

2.5

1.8

(1.1)

0.7

3m

(35)

(67)

(20)

29

(13)

(16.9)

0.2

1.2

(0.7)

(18.7)

(18.7)

2.3

0.8

75.5

1.8

6.7

1.7

2.0

0.0

(0.3)

(0.3)

6m

(35)

(66)

(20)

30

(13)

(13.9)

0.5

0.5

(0.1)

(13.3)

(13.3)

1.6

(0.4)

39.1

0.6

5.2

0.7

1.4

0.0

(0.9)

(0.9)

1y

(31)

(68)

(18)

30

(14)

(2.4)

0.6

(0.9)

0.4

1.5

1.4

3.8

(1.0)

14.5

4.0

12.9

4.3

2.2

0.0

(0.9)

(0.9)

-57.5

1s2s5s

7.0

Spot

(53)

(51)

(30)

29

(6)

(43.7)

0.4

1.7

(0.6)

(46.9)

(46.8)

4.2

0.7

79.5

3.1

8.5

3.5

2.0

2.9

(1.5)

1.5

3m

(54)

(50)

(31)

29

(6)

(42.9)

0.6

0.9

(1.3)

(42.9)

(42.9)

3.0

0.0

55.6

0.0

5.4

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.4

6m

(53)

(50)

(30)

30

(7)

(31.2)

0.7

0.0

(0.8)

(28.6)

(28.7)

3.1

(0.8)

21.8

2.6

8.5

2.7

2.0

0.0

(0.5)

(0.5)

1y

(42)

(58)

(24)

30

(8)

(15.8)

0.5

(1.4)

(0.5)

(10.2)

(10.3)

5.0

(1.1)

11.7

5.6

18.2

6.4

2.0

0.0

(1.4)

(1.4)

-56.2

1s3s5s

-8.8

Spot

(29)

(76)

(16)

20

(10)

(48.2)

0.5

0.0

(0.4)

(47.1)

(47.2)

3.6

(0.3)

42.3

1.1

10.2

0.7

0.4

1.7

(0.5)

1.2

3m

(29)

(75)

(17)

20

(10)

(38.9)

0.5

(0.4)

(0.9)

(36.3)

(36.4)

3.1

(0.8)

21.8

2.6

9.9

2.3

1.6

0.0

1.1

1.1

6m

(27)

(76)

(15)

21

(10)

(26.3)

0.3

(0.7)

(1.1)

(23.3)

(23.4)

2.8

(1.1)

13.9

3.0

9.8

2.9

2.2

0.0

0.5

0.5

Source: Nomura

10

INR (Onshore OIS) PCA-Weighted Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Structure
1y

Total Return Analysis


Abs

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

%tile

Sprd4

(16)

(85)

(9)

21

(12)

(19.6)

(0.1)

(0.8)

(1.4)

(17.2)

(17.2)

2.3

(1.0)

13.1

2.4

Half

-28.4

2s3s5s

Life5

Box Plot

Exp.

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

6.0

2.6

3.0

0.0

(0.7)

(0.7)

-3.2

Spot

(54)

(48)

(16)

20

(6)

(24.4)

0.3

(0.9)

(0.0)

(21.7)

(21.7)

2.9

(0.9)

17.0

2.8

13.6

2.6

1.6

0.1

0.3

0.4

3m

(54)

(48)

(16)

20

(6)

(16.0)

0.2

(0.9)

(0.2)

(13.3)

(13.4)

2.4

(1.1)

14.1

2.6

14.3

2.3

1.7

0.0

0.8

0.8

6m

(50)

(51)

(15)

21

(7)

(10.7)

(0.1)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(8.9)

(9.0)

1.6

(1.1)

13.1

1.7

7.0

1.5

2.5

0.0

0.8

0.8

1y

(38)

(64)

(11)

21

(9)

(13.7)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(1.2)

(13.4)

(13.3)

1.3

(0.2)

36.5

0.3

2.2

0.3

1.3

0.0

(0.2)

(0.2)

Spot

(8)

(94)

(2)

13

(9)

(25.0)

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

(24.1)

(24.1)

1.7

(0.5)

36.7

0.8

3.1

0.9

2.1

(1.0)

0.3

(0.7)

3m

(5)

(99)

(2)

13

(10)

(34.5)

0.1

0.1

0.4

(34.2)

(34.2)

2.0

(0.2)

49.1

0.3

4.9

0.4

0.7

0.0

(0.7)

(0.7)

6m

(3)

(101)

(1)

13

(10)

(38.0)

0.0

0.1

0.4

(37.8)

(37.7)

1.9

(0.1)

49.1

0.2

5.0

0.3

0.4

0.0

(0.4)

(0.4)

1y

(105)

13

(11)

(41.8)

0.1

0.2

0.8

(41.6)

(41.6)

1.9

(0.1)

53.2

0.1

6.7

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.3

-48.0

2s5s7s

-76.3

2s5s10s

-20.4

-38.8

Spot

(16)

(90)

(4)

13

(7)

(47.2)

0.1

(0.0)

1.0

(46.0)

(45.9)

3.0

(0.4)

42.1

1.2

5.4

1.2

1.3

(1.3)

1.0

(0.3)

3m

(12)

(95)

(4)

13

(7)

(57.1)

0.1

0.2

1.4

(56.6)

(56.5)

3.2

(0.2)

50.8

0.5

7.1

0.6

0.5

0.0

(0.4)

(0.4)

6m

(9)

(98)

(3)

13

(8)

(60.3)

0.1

0.2

1.5

(60.0)

(59.9)

3.1

(0.1)

53.4

0.3

6.5

0.3

0.3

0.0

(0.1)

(0.1)

1y

(2)

(106)

(1)

13

(8)

(66.7)

0.2

0.4

1.8

(66.7)

(66.6)

3.0

(0.0)

57.0

0.0

6.2

(0.1)

(0.1)

0.0

0.6

0.6

Notes
1. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed using rolling 2-year INR rates; risk weights are determined so that the trades are level/slope neutral
2. Notional amount for the belly of a butterfly trade (left leg of a curve trade) is fixed at USD 100,000
3. Model average is the long-term equilibrium level as implied by Nomura's Statistical Mean-Reversion Model
4. Spread is the absolute difference between current level and life-time average
5. Half-life is the number of days for the time series to mean-revert toward long-term average by 50%, as computed by the Statistical Mean-Reversion Model
6. Expected return includes mean reversion toward life-time average, RD&C, and transaction cost; the trade horizon is assumed to be two times the half-life or the maturity of the shortest leg, whichever occurs first
7. Information ratio is annualized expected return divided by annualized historical volatility
8. Carry and rolldown assume receiving the belly
9. Box plots show current value (red diamond), min, max, average, and the 25th & 75th percentiles
current

min
25th
percentile

Source: Nomura

max

avg
75th percentile

11

INR (Onshore OIS) PCA-Weighted Spread Report

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Best Information Ratio - 1y Forward 3s5s (-100/98)

Highest Z-Score - Spot 2s3s (-100/89)


102

10

10

92

Lowest Z-Score - 1y Forward 3s5s (-100/98)

(0)

82

(0)

(5)

72

(5)

(10)

62

(10)

(15)

52

(15)

Spot 1s2s (-100/72)

Spot 1s3s (-100/63)

281

Spot 1s5s (-100/59)


390

340

370

261

320

350

241

300

330

221

280

310
290

260

201

270
240
250

181
161

220

230

200

210

Spot 2s3s (-100/89)


102
92

Spot 2s5s (-100/82)


167

Fitted Residual - Factor 1


60.0

120.0

40.0

100.0

147

16.9

20.0
127

80.0

62

87

52

67

-6.4

107

-5.7

0.0
72

-5.5

-0.3

9.4

82

60.0

(20.0)

40.0

(40.0)

20.0
0.0

(60.0)

1y

2y

3y

5y

7y

10y

Source: Nomura
12

INR (Onshore OIS) PCA-Weighted Butterfly Report

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Best Information Ratio - Spot 1s2s3s (34/67)

Highest Z-Score - Spot 1s2s3s (34/67)

Lowest Z-Score - Spot 2s3s5s (54/48)

(6.6)

(6.6)

(8.6)

(8.6)

(10.6)

(10.6)

(12.6)

(12.6)

(14.6)

(14.6)

(19)

(16.6)

(16.6)

(21)

(18.6)

(18.6)

(23)

(20.6)

(20.6)

(25)

(22.6)

(22.6)

(27)

(24.6)

(24.6)

(29)

Spot 1s2s3s (34/67)

(13)
(15)
(17)

Spot 1s2s5s (53/51)


(37)

(33)

(7)

Spot 1s3s5s (29/76)

(9)
(38)

(11)

(42)

(13)
(43)

(15)

(47)
(17)

(48)

(19)
(21)

(52)

(53)

(23)
(25)

(58)

Spot 2s3s5s (54/48)

(57)

Spot 2s5s7s (8/94)

Fitted Residual - Factors 1 & 2


10.0

(13)

(21)

(15)
(17)

4.0
(25)

0.4

0.1

(2.0)

-1.7

(29)
(27)

-0.8

0.0
(27)

(25)

(29)

2.0

-0.5

(21)
(23)

6.0

2.5

(19)

(23)

8.0

(4.0)
(6.0)

(31)

(8.0)
(10.0)

1y

2y

3y

5y

7y

20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

10y

Source: Nomura
13

INR (NDOIS) Swap Monitor

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Swap Rates & 1d Changes


3m

6m

3m Carry & Rolldown


1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

10y

3m

6m

1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

10y

Spot

7.88 (-2) 7.77 (-2) 7.60 (-2) 7.17 (-2) 7.06 (-2) 7.04 (-2) 7.02 (-2) 7.05 (-2) 7.09 (-2) 7.15 (-2)

Spot

(36.1)

(31.0)

(16.8)

(10.4)

(7.0)

(5.4)

(3.6)

(2.9)

(2.4)

3m

7.51 (-1) 7.41 (-2) 7.33 (-2) 7.02 (-2) 6.96 (-2) 6.97 (-2) 6.98 (-2) 7.02 (-2) 7.06 (-2) 7.13 (-2)

3m

(35.9)

(26.6)

(14.9)

(9.2)

(6.9)

(4.7)

(3.4)

(2.9)

(2.4)

6m

7.18 (-3) 7.14 (-2) 7.14 (-2) 6.92 (-2) 6.91 (-2) 6.92 (-2) 6.95 (-2) 7.01 (-2) 7.05 (-2) 7.11 (-2)

6m

(26.7)

(18.5)

(10.0)

(5.4)

(4.3)

(2.3)

(1.5)

(1.3)

(1.2)

1y

6.87 (-2) 6.90 (-2) 6.97 (-2) 6.84 (-2) 6.88 (-2) 6.90 (-2) 6.96 (-2) 7.02 (-2) 7.06 (-2) 7.12 (-2)

1y

(9.4)

(6.4)

(2.4)

(0.7)

(0.1)

1.0

1.1

0.9

0.4

2y

6.75 (-2) 6.80 (-2) 6.94 (-2) 6.89 (-2) 6.92 (-2) 6.99 (-2) 7.05 (-2) 7.10 (-2) 7.13 (-2) 7.15 (-2)

2y

(0.5)

1.7

2.3

2.1

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.0

1.1

3y

6.87 (-2) 6.95 (-2) 7.09 (-2) 6.97 (-2) 7.05 (-2) 7.12 (-2) 7.16 (-2) 7.19 (-2) 7.20 (-2) 7.19 (-2)

3y

5.4

3.1

2.4

3.5

3.1

2.5

2.1

1.6

0.9

5y

7.09 (-2) 7.18 (-2) 7.36 (-2) 7.28 (-2) 7.30 (-2) 7.31 (-2) 7.31 (-2) 7.30 (-2) 7.28 (-2) 7.24 (-2)

5y

8.2

6.1

3.8

2.7

1.9

1.3

0.8

0.6

0.4

3m Z-Scores

Annualized Vol-Adjusted Carry & Rolldown

3m

6m

1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

10y

3m

6m

1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

10y

Spot

(0.7)

(0.8)

(1.4)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.3)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.3)

Spot

(2.6)

(2.1)

(1.1)

(0.6)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.1)

3m

(0.9)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.3)

3m

(2.1)

(1.6)

(0.9)

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.1)

6m

(1.8)

(1.7)

(1.4)

(1.2)

(1.3)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.3)

(1.3)

6m

(1.5)

(1.1)

(0.6)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

1y

(1.2)

(1.0)

(0.9)

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.2)

(1.2)

1y

(0.5)

(0.3)

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

2y

(1.0)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(1.2)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.2)

2y

(0.0)

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

3y

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.4)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.4)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

3y

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

5y

(1.4)

(1.3)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

5y

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

INR Spot & Forward Curves

Realized & Implied Paths for 1y, 2y & 5y Rates

8.00

11.00

7.80

10.00
9.00

7.60

8.00
7.40
7.00
7.20

6.00

7.00

5.00
4.00

6.80

3.00
6.60
0y

1y

2y
Spot

Source: Nomura

3y

4y
3m Forward

5y

6y
6m Forward

7y

8y

9y

1y Forward

10y

1y

2y

5y

14

INR (NDOIS) Swap Monitor

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Curve Slopes & 1d Changes


1/2

1/3

3m Carry & Rolldown


1/5

2/5

2/7

2/10

3/5

3/7

3/10

5/10

1/2

1/3

1/5

2/5

2/7

2/10

3/5

3/7

3/10

5/10

Spot

-43.0 (0) -54.0 (0) -57.0 (0) -14.0 (0)

-7.5 (0)

-1.5 (0)

-3.0 (0)

3.5 (0)

9.5 (0)

12.5 (0)

Spot

14.2

20.6

25.7

11.5

13.9

14.4

5.0

7.5

8.0

3.0

3m

-31.2 (0) -36.6 (0) -35.1 (0)

-3.9 (0)

4.4 (0)

11.0 (0)

1.4 (0)

9.8 (0)

16.3 (0)

14.8 (0)

3m

11.8

17.4

21.9

10.1

11.9

12.5

4.4

6.3

6.8

2.3

6m

-22.8 (0) -23.5 (0) -19.0 (0)

3.8 (0)

13.2 (0)

19.8 (0)

4.5 (0)

13.9 (0)

20.4 (0)

15.9 (0)

6m

8.4

13.1

16.2

7.7

8.7

8.8

3.1

4.1

4.2

1.1

1y

-13.5 (0)

-9.3 (0)

-1.0 (0)

12.4 (0)

22.1 (0)

27.8 (0)

8.2 (0)

17.9 (0)

23.6 (0)

15.3 (0)

1y

4.0

5.7

7.4

3.4

3.4

2.8

1.6

1.6

1.0

(0.6)

2y

-4.4 (0)

-1.6 (0)

11.8 (0)

16.2 (0)

23.5 (0)

26.0 (0)

13.4 (0)

20.8 (0)

23.2 (0)

9.8 (0)

2y

0.6

0.4

1.0

0.4

(0.3)

(1.2)

0.6

(0.1)

(1.0)

(1.6)

3y

-11.6 (0)

-3.6 (0)

7.1 (0)

18.8 (0)

22.7 (0)

21.9 (0)

10.7 (0)

14.7 (0)

13.9 (0)

3.1 (0)

3y

(0.7)

0.4

(0.5)

0.2

(0.7)

(1.5)

(0.9)

(1.9)

(2.6)

(1.6)

5y

-7.7 (0)

-5.5 (0)

-4.8 (0)

2.8 (0)

-0.1 (0)

-4.1 (0)

0.7 (0)

-2.3 (0)

-6.2 (0)

-6.9 (0)

5y

(2.2)

(3.4)

(4.8)

(2.5)

(3.3)

(3.4)

(1.4)

(2.1)

(2.3)

(0.9)

1/2

1/3

1/5

2/5

2/7

2/10

3/5

3/7

3/10

5/10

1/2

1/3

1/5

2/5

2/7

2/10

3/5

3/7

3/10

5/10

Spot

0.2

0.1

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.4)

(0.2)

(0.2)

0.2

Spot

2.7

2.5

2.7

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.0

1.2

1.2

0.7

3m

0.4

0.3

0.2

(0.0)

0.1

0.1

(0.3)

(0.1)

(0.0)

0.4

3m

2.2

2.1

2.5

1.7

1.7

1.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

0.6

6m

0.5

0.4

0.3

(0.0)

0.1

0.2

(0.3)

0.0

0.1

0.5

6m

1.4

1.7

2.0

1.3

1.3

1.3

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.3

1y

0.1

0.0

(0.1)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.4)

(0.1)

(0.1)

0.3

1y

0.6

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

(0.1)

2y

(0.1)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.0)

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

2y

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

(0.0)

(0.1)

0.1

(0.0)

(0.2)

(0.3)

3y

(0.1)

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.3

3y

(0.1)

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

5y

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.1)

(0.0)

0.0

0.1

5y

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

3m Z-Scores

Annualized Vol-Adjusted Carry & Rolldown

Butterflies & 1d Changes


1/2/3

1/2/5

3m Carry & Rolldown


2/3/5

2/5/7

3/5/7

1/2/3

1/2/5

1/3/5

1/3/7

2/3/5

2/5/7

3/5/7

2/5/10

3/5/10

2/7/10

Spot

-32.0 (0) -29.0 (0) -51.0 (0) -57.5 (0)

1/3/5

1/3/7

-8.0 (0)

-20.5 (0)

-9.5 (0)

-26.5 (0) -15.5 (0) -13.5 (0)

2/5/10

3/5/10

2/7/10
Spot

7.8

2.8

15.6

13.2

1.4

9.0

2.6

8.5

2.0

13.3

3m

-25.9 (0) -27.4 (0) -38.0 (0) -46.3 (0)

-6.8 (0)

-12.2 (0)

-6.9 (0)

-18.7 (0) -13.4 (0)

-2.1 (0)

3m

6.1

1.6

13.0

11.2

1.2

8.3

2.6

7.8

2.1

11.4

6m

-22.1 (0) -26.6 (0) -28.0 (0) -37.4 (0)

-5.2 (0)

-5.5 (0)

-4.8 (0)

-12.1 (0) -11.4 (0)

6.6 (0)

6m

3.8

0.7

10.0

9.0

1.5

6.7

2.1

6.7

2.0

8.7

1y

-17.7 (0) -25.9 (0) -17.5 (0) -27.1 (0)

-4.0 (0)

2.8 (0)

-1.4 (0)

-2.9 (0)

-7.1 (0)

16.4 (0)

1y

2.2

0.6

4.1

4.1

0.1

3.4

1.6

4.0

2.2

3.9

2y

-7.2 (0)

-20.6 (0) -15.1 (0) -22.4 (0) -10.7 (0)

8.9 (0)

6.1 (0)

6.5 (0)

3.7 (0)

21.1 (0)

2y

0.8

0.2

(0.3)

0.5

(0.9)

1.2

1.4

2.1

2.3

0.6

3y

-19.7 (0) -30.4 (0) -14.3 (0) -18.3 (0)

-2.7 (0)

14.8 (0)

6.8 (0)

15.7 (0)

7.6 (0)

23.6 (0)

3y

(1.8)

(0.9)

1.3

2.2

2.1

1.1

(0.0)

1.8

0.7

(0.0)

5y

-9.8 (0)

5y

(1.1)

0.3

(2.0)

(1.3)

0.2

(1.8)

(0.6)

(1.6)

(0.5)

(3.1)

-10.5 (0)

-6.2 (0)

-3.2 (0)

1.5 (0)

5.8 (0)

3.7 (0)

9.8 (0)

7.6 (0)

3.8 (0)

1/2/3

1/2/5

1/3/5

1/3/7

2/3/5

2/5/7

3/5/7

2/5/10

3/5/10

2/7/10

Spot

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.4

(0.2)

(0.5)

(0.2)

(0.5)

(0.1)

3m

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.5

(0.1)

(0.5)

(0.2)

(0.6)

0.0

6m

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.5

(0.1)

(0.6)

(0.2)

(0.6)

1y

0.3

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.1

(0.4)

(0.6)

(0.4)

2y

0.1

(0.0)

(0.4)

(0.5)

(0.8)

(0.3)

0.2

3y

(0.4)

(0.6)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

0.5

5y

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.5

(0.0)

3m Z-Scores

Source: Nomura

Annualized Vol-Adjusted Carry & Rolldown


1/2/3

1/2/5

1/3/5

1/3/7

2/3/5

2/5/7

3/5/7

2/5/10

3/5/10

2/7/10

Spot

1.4

0.4

1.6

1.2

0.2

1.3

0.5

1.1

0.3

1.7

3m

1.3

0.2

1.3

1.0

0.2

1.3

0.5

1.1

0.3

1.4

0.1

6m

0.6

0.1

1.0

0.8

0.3

1.1

0.5

0.9

0.3

1.1

(0.6)

(0.2)

1y

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

(0.3)

0.1

(0.1)

2y

0.1

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

(0.1)

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.4

3y

(0.2)

(0.1)

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.1

(0.0)

0.2

0.1

(0.0)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.1)

0.0

5y

(0.1)

0.0

(0.2)

(0.2)

0.1

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.3)
15

INR (NDOIS) Swap Monitor

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Spot Curve 3m Range

Realized & Implied Paths for 2s5s

8.30

2s5s vs 2s

200.0

200.0

150.0

150.0

8.10
7.90

100.0

7.70

100.0
7.50

50.0
7.30

50.0
0.0

7.10

0.0

6.90

(50.0)
6.70

(50.0)

6.50
3m

6m

1y

2y

3y

5th %tile
75th %tile
Spot

4y

5y

6y

7y

8y

25th %tile
95th %tile
3m Forward

9y

(100.0)

10y

Median
max
6m Forward

2s5s

1y CMS 3m Range

2011

Implied Path

4
2010

5
Past 6m

6
6m Forward

Realized & Implied Paths for 1s2s

8.10

1y Forward

2y Forward

10
Current

1s2s vs 1s
100

150.0

7.90

80
100.0

60

7.70
7.50

50.0

7.30

0.0

40
20

7.10

0
(20)

(50.0)

(40)

6.90

(60)

(100.0)
6.70

(80)
(150.0)

6.50
Spot

1y

2y

3y

4y

5y

6y

7y

5th %tile

25th %tile

Median

95th %tile

max

CMS

Source: Nomura

8y

9y

(100)

10y

10

11

75th %tile
1s2s

Implied Path

2011

2010

Past 6m

6m Forward

1y Forward

2y Forward

Current

16

INR (NDOIS) Conventional Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Structure

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

Total Return Analysis


Abs

%tile

Half

Sprd4
-60.0

1s2s

Life5

Box Plot

Exp.

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

20.7

Spot

(100)

100

(56)

28

(43.0)

0.0

(1.0)

(3.0)

(24.1)

(43.0)

24.8

(0.8)

34.1

18.9

115.8

(33.3)

(1.0)

11.2

3.1

14.2

3m

(100)

100

(56)

29

(31.2)

(0.0)

(0.9)

(0.6)

(13.4)

(23.2)

18.8

(0.9)

17.8

17.8

73.1

(9.4)

(0.4)

0.0

11.8

11.8

6m

(100)

100

(55)

29

(22.8)

0.1

(1.3)

0.4

(7.0)

(13.1)

14.2

(1.1)

9.9

15.8

54.1

1.3

0.1

0.0

8.4

8.4

1y

(100)

100

(54)

29

(13.5)

0.1

(2.1)

1.1

(2.7)

(3.9)

8.8

(1.2)

9.9

10.8

14.4

9.0

1.9

0.0

4.0

4.0

-71.0

1s3s

44.1

Spot

(100)

100

(56)

19

(54.0)

(0.0)

(3.0)

(4.0)

(20.5)

(56.9)

37.0

(0.9)

20.0

33.5

137.3

(47.1)

(1.0)

14.6

6.1

20.6

3m

(100)

100

(56)

19

(36.6)

(0.1)

(2.7)

(0.2)

(6.6)

(26.5)

28.6

(1.1)

11.3

30.0

91.8

(20.6)

(0.6)

0.0

17.4

17.4

6m

(100)

100

(55)

20

(23.5)

0.2

(2.8)

1.9

1.5

(10.4)

22.0

(1.1)

9.1

25.0

66.2

(2.4)

(0.1)

0.0

13.1

13.1

1y

(100)

100

(54)

20

(9.3)

0.1

(2.9)

3.2

6.0

3.2

13.5

(1.1)

11.7

15.3

23.3

11.1

1.2

0.0

5.7

5.7

-78.3

1s5s

82.9

Spot

(100)

100

(56)

12

(57.0)

0.0

(4.0)

(3.0)

(9.5)

(61.8)

50.7

(0.9)

16.3

47.5

138.4

(52.8)

(0.8)

18.1

7.5

25.7

3m

(100)

100

(56)

12

(35.1)

(0.0)

(3.2)

1.2

6.4

(23.9)

39.9

(1.0)

11.7

41.6

98.2

(26.5)

(0.5)

0.0

21.9

21.9

6m

(100)

100

(55)

12

(19.0)

0.2

(2.8)

3.2

15.3

(3.8)

31.2

(1.1)

9.1

34.3

75.1

(4.2)

(0.1)

0.0

16.2

16.2

1y

(100)

100

(54)

13

(1.0)

0.1

(2.3)

3.7

19.3

14.0

18.5

(1.1)

13.9

20.3

32.7

12.7

0.9

0.0

7.4

7.4

-17.0

2s3s

32.1

Spot

(100)

100

(28)

19

(11.0)

(0.0)

(2.0)

(1.0)

3.6

(4.1)

12.7

(1.2)

8.1

14.6

75.5

(0.8)

(0.1)

3.4

3.0

6.4

3m

(100)

100

(29)

19

(5.3)

(0.1)

(1.8)

0.4

6.8

1.4

10.1

(1.2)

7.5

12.2

65.2

0.5

0.0

0.0

5.7

5.7

6m

(100)

100

(29)

20

(0.7)

0.1

(1.5)

1.5

8.5

5.6

8.0

(1.1)

7.7

9.2

42.2

3.0

0.4

0.0

4.6

4.6

1y

(100)

100

(29)

20

4.2

(0.0)

(0.8)

2.1

8.7

8.4

5.5

(0.8)

20.2

4.5

8.6

4.1

1.8

0.0

1.7

1.7

-25.0

2s5s

67.0

Spot

(100)

100

(28)

12

(14.0)

(0.0)

(3.0)

(0.0)

14.6

(7.5)

26.8

(1.1)

8.9

28.6

102.5

(8.6)

(0.3)

7.0

4.5

11.5

3m

(100)

100

(29)

12

(3.9)

(0.0)

(2.3)

1.8

19.8

6.7

21.7

(1.1)

8.9

23.7

74.7

(0.2)

(0.0)

0.0

10.1

10.1

6m

(100)

100

(29)

12

3.8

0.1

(1.5)

2.8

22.3

15.0

17.4

(1.1)

10.3

18.5

51.3

6.0

0.4

0.0

7.7

7.7

1y

(100)

100

(29)

13

12.4

0.0

(0.2)

2.6

22.0

20.6

10.8

(0.9)

21.8

9.5

17.3

7.7

1.2

0.0

3.4

3.4

-27.0

2s7s

82.1

Spot

(100)

100

(28)

(7.5)

(0.0)

(3.0)

(0.0)

24.4

3.6

29.3

(1.1)

9.9

31.9

87.5

(6.6)

(0.2)

8.8

5.1

13.9

3m

(100)

100

(29)

4.4

(0.0)

(2.2)

2.0

30.2

18.4

23.4

(1.1)

9.3

25.7

62.2

2.2

0.1

0.0

11.9

11.9

6m

(100)

100

(29)

13.2

0.2

(1.3)

3.1

32.6

26.2

18.6

(1.0)

15.5

19.4

43.3

7.5

0.4

0.0

8.7

8.7

1y

(100)

100

(29)

22.1

0.1

0.0

2.8

31.1

29.8

11.7

(0.8)

26.0

9.0

16.8

7.2

1.1

0.0

3.4

3.4

-28.0

2s10s

94.1

Spot

(100)

100

(28)

(1.5)

(0.0)

(3.0)

(0.0)

32.4

10.8

31.5

(1.1)

11.1

33.9

84.8

(4.8)

(0.1)

10.1

4.4

14.4

3m

(100)

100

(29)

11.0

(0.0)

(2.1)

2.2

37.9

25.8

24.9

(1.1)

12.5

27.0

60.7

3.0

0.1

0.0

12.5

12.5

6m

(100)

100

(29)

19.8

0.1

(1.2)

3.3

39.7

33.1

19.7

(1.0)

19.8

19.9

42.4

8.2

0.5

0.0

8.8

8.8

1y

(100)

100

(29)

27.8

0.0

0.2

2.9

36.1

34.9

12.1

(0.7)

25.8

8.3

16.7

6.9

1.0

0.0

2.8

2.8

54.4

5.4

0.4

3.6

1.5

5.0

-15.0

3s5s
Spot

(100)

Source: Nomura

100

(19)

12

(3.0)

0.0

(1.0)

1.0

11.0

4.8

14.4

(1.0)

9.7

14.0

49.0

17

INR (NDOIS) Conventional Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Structure

Total Return Analysis


Abs

Half

Exp.

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

%tile

Sprd4

13.0

9.1

11.9

(1.0)

12.3

11.6

41.3

5.8

13.8

11.6

9.7

(1.0)

15.7

9.3

29.6

6.4

13.2

12.8

5.9

(0.9)

23.0

5.0

10.7

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

3m

(100)

100

(19)

12

1.4

0.0

(0.5)

1.4

6m

(100)

100

(20)

12

4.5

0.0

(0.0)

1.3

1y

(100)

100

(20)

13

8.2

0.0

0.6

0.5

-17.0

3s7s

Life5

Box Plot

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

0.5

0.0

4.4

4.4

0.9

0.0

3.1

3.1

4.5

1.6

0.0

1.6

1.6

61.0

Spot

(100)

100

(19)

3.5

0.0

(1.0)

1.0

20.8

14.4

17.2

(1.0)

14.1

17.3

46.8

6.3

0.4

5.4

2.1

7.5

3m

(100)

100

(19)

9.8

0.0

(0.4)

1.6

23.3

19.7

13.8

(1.0)

19.2

13.6

34.5

6.8

0.6

0.0

6.3

6.3

6m

(100)

100

(20)

13.9

0.1

0.2

1.6

24.1

22.0

11.2

(0.9)

24.6

10.2

25.4

7.0

0.9

0.0

4.1

4.1

1y

(100)

100

(20)

17.9

0.1

0.8

0.7

22.3

21.9

7.3

(0.6)

27.0

4.5

12.3

3.8

1.0

0.0

1.6

1.6

-18.0

3s10s

72.0

Spot

(100)

100

(19)

9.5

0.0

(1.0)

1.0

28.8

21.4

19.5

(1.0)

14.9

19.3

47.9

7.2

0.4

6.6

1.4

8.0

3m

(100)

100

(19)

16.3

0.0

(0.3)

1.8

31.1

26.9

15.6

(0.9)

21.2

14.8

35.3

7.3

0.6

0.0

6.8

6.8

6m

(100)

100

(20)

20.4

0.1

0.3

1.8

31.2

28.9

12.5

(0.9)

24.2

10.7

25.7

7.4

0.8

0.0

4.2

4.2

1y

(100)

100

(20)

23.6

0.0

1.0

0.8

27.4

26.9

8.2

(0.5)

29.0

3.8

12.6

3.4

0.8

0.0

1.0

1.0

-2.0

5s7s

22.0

Spot

(100)

100

(12)

6.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

9.8

9.5

3.9

(0.8)

25.6

3.3

13.5

2.2

1.1

1.8

0.6

2.4

3m

(100)

100

(12)

8.3

0.0

0.1

0.2

10.3

10.2

3.5

(0.6)

32.4

2.0

12.1

1.3

0.7

0.0

1.8

1.8

6m

(100)

100

(12)

9.3

0.0

0.2

0.3

10.3

10.2

3.4

(0.3)

38.9

0.9

11.9

0.6

0.3

0.0

1.0

1.0

1y

(100)

100

(13)

9.6

0.0

0.2

0.2

9.1

9.2

3.2

0.2

61.4

0.5

11.2

0.5

0.3

0.0

(0.0)

(0.0)

Spot

(100)

100

(12)

12.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

17.8

17.0

6.4

(0.8)

23.4

5.3

19.9

3.4

0.8

3.1

(0.1)

3.0

3m

(100)

100

(12)

14.8

0.0

0.2

0.4

18.1

17.7

5.5

(0.6)

29.4

3.2

16.3

2.1

0.6

0.0

2.3

2.3

6m

(100)

100

(12)

15.9

0.0

0.3

0.5

17.4

17.2

5.0

(0.3)

35.9

1.5

14.3

1.0

0.4

0.0

1.1

1.1

1y

(100)

100

(13)

15.3

0.0

0.4

0.3

14.1

14.2

4.6

0.3

63.0

1.2

11.8

1.0

0.4

0.0

(0.6)

(0.6)

Spot

(50)

(50)

(28)

28

(10)

(16.0)

0.0

0.5

(1.0)

(13.9)

(15.0)

6.7

(0.3)

46.5

2.1

36.9

(2.4)

(0.4)

3.9

0.0

3.9

3m

(50)

(50)

(28)

29

(10)

(13.0)

0.0

0.5

(0.5)

(10.1)

(10.8)

4.9

(0.6)

36.1

2.8

24.3

0.5

0.1

0.0

3.0

3.0

6m

(50)

(50)

(28)

29

(10)

(11.1)

0.0

0.1

(0.6)

(7.8)

(8.1)

3.5

(0.9)

18.8

3.3

15.2

2.4

1.2

0.0

1.9

1.9

1y

(50)

(50)

(27)

29

(10)

(8.8)

0.1

(0.6)

(0.5)

(5.7)

(5.8)

2.9

(1.1)

13.3

3.1

3.3

3.0

4.3

0.0

1.1

1.1

-3.0

5s10s

-30.0

1s2s3s

-32.0

1s2s5s

34.9

4.0

-1.4

Spot

(50)

(50)

(28)

28

(6)

(14.5)

0.0

1.0

(1.5)

(19.4)

(19.0)

4.6

1.1

82.7

4.9

14.3

5.5

2.2

2.1

(0.7)

1.4

3m

(50)

(50)

(28)

29

(6)

(13.7)

0.0

0.7

(1.2)

(16.6)

(16.4)

3.7

0.8

80.1

2.9

9.0

3.2

2.0

0.0

0.8

0.8

6m

(50)

(50)

(28)

29

(6)

(13.3)

(0.0)

0.1

(1.2)

(14.7)

(14.6)

3.2

0.4

68.1

1.3

6.5

1.4

1.3

0.0

0.4

0.4

1y

(50)

(50)

(27)

29

(6)

(12.9)

0.0

(0.9)

(0.7)

(12.3)

(12.3)

3.4

(0.2)

43.5

0.6

3.3

0.6

0.7

0.0

0.3

0.3

-35.5

1s3s5s

8.9

Spot

(50)

(50)

(28)

19

(6)

(25.5)

(0.0)

(1.0)

(2.5)

(15.8)

(20.7)

12.0

(0.8)

28.4

9.7

64.4

(6.1)

(0.5)

5.5

2.3

7.8

3m

(50)

(50)

(28)

19

(6)

(19.0)

(0.0)

(1.1)

(0.8)

(9.8)

(12.2)

9.0

(1.0)

16.3

9.2

38.2

1.4

0.2

0.0

6.5

6.5

6m

(50)

(50)

(28)

20

(6)

(14.0)

0.1

(1.4)

0.3

(6.2)

(7.4)

6.7

(1.2)

10.1

7.9

22.7

4.3

0.9

0.0

5.0

5.0

Source: Nomura

18

INR (NDOIS) Conventional Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

%tile

Sprd4

(50)

(50)

(27)

20

(6)

(8.7)

0.0

(1.8)

1.4

(3.6)

(3.9)

4.7

(1.1)

13.7

5.1

Structure
1y

Total Return Analysis


Abs

Half

-17.0

2s3s5s

Life5

Box Plot

Exp.

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

7.7

4.7

2.5

0.0

2.1

2.1

3.6

Spot

(50)

(50)

(14)

19

(6)

(4.0)

(0.0)

(0.5)

(1.0)

(3.7)

(3.7)

2.3

(0.1)

43.3

0.3

4.3

0.2

0.3

(0.1)

0.8

0.7

3m

(50)

(50)

(14)

19

(6)

(3.4)

(0.0)

(0.7)

(0.5)

(3.1)

(3.1)

2.0

(0.2)

45.9

0.3

4.3

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.6

0.6

6m

(50)

(50)

(14)

20

(6)

(2.6)

0.0

(0.7)

0.1

(2.7)

(2.6)

1.6

0.0

52.6

0.0

3.1

0.1

0.3

0.0

0.8

0.8

1y

(50)

(50)

(14)

20

(6)

(2.0)

(0.0)

(0.7)

0.8

(2.3)

(2.3)

1.7

0.1

55.4

0.2

1.7

0.2

0.8

0.0

0.1

0.1

-13.2

2s5s7s

26.5

Spot

(50)

(50)

(14)

12

(4)

(10.3)

(0.0)

(1.5)

(0.0)

2.4

(6.7)

12.3

(1.0)

10.5

12.7

94.4

(0.8)

(0.1)

2.6

1.9

4.5

3m

(50)

(50)

(14)

12

(5)

(6.1)

(0.0)

(1.2)

0.8

4.8

(1.1)

10.2

(1.1)

8.3

10.9

71.3

1.5

0.1

0.0

4.1

4.1

6m

(50)

(50)

(14)

12

(5)

(2.8)

0.0

(0.9)

1.2

6.0

2.6

8.4

(1.0)

8.3

8.8

49.1

3.5

0.4

0.0

3.4

3.4

1y

(50)

(50)

(14)

13

(5)

1.4

0.0

(0.2)

1.2

6.4

5.7

5.4

(0.9)

17.6

5.0

16.4

4.2

1.3

0.0

1.7

1.7

-17.0

2s5s10s

23.5

Spot

(50)

(50)

(14)

12

(3)

(13.3)

(0.0)

(1.5)

(0.0)

(1.6)

(8.7)

11.5

(1.0)

11.9

11.7

81.2

0.8

0.1

2.0

2.3

4.2

3m

(50)

(50)

(14)

12

(3)

(9.4)

(0.0)

(1.2)

0.7

0.9

(3.9)

9.8

(1.0)

10.9

10.2

61.8

2.7

0.3

0.0

3.9

3.9

6m

(50)

(50)

(14)

12

(3)

(6.0)

0.0

(0.9)

1.1

2.5

(0.4)

8.3

(1.0)

10.9

8.5

43.3

4.0

0.5

0.0

3.3

3.3

1y

(50)

(50)

(14)

13

(4)

(1.4)

0.0

(0.3)

1.1

3.9

3.2

5.7

(0.9)

14.5

5.4

15.6

4.4

1.4

0.0

2.0

2.0

Notes
1. Butterflies are 50/50-weighted and curves are 1-to-1.
2. Notional amount for the belly of a butterfly trade (left leg of a curve trade) is fixed at USD 100,000
3. Model average is the long-term equilibrium level as implied by Nomura's Statistical Mean-Reversion Model
4. Spread is the absolute difference between current level and life-time average
5. Half-life is the number of days for the time series to mean-revert toward long-term average by 50%, as computed by the Statistical Mean-Reversion Model
6. Expected return includes mean reversion toward life-time average, RD&C, and transaction cost; the trade horizon is assumed to be two times the half-life or the maturity of the shortest leg, whichever occurs first
7. Information ratio is annualized expected return divided by annualized historical volatility
8. Carry and rolldown assume receiving the belly
9. Box plots show current value (red diamond), min, max, average, and the 25th & 75th percentiles
current

min
25th
percentile

Source: Nomura

max

avg
75th percentile

19

INR (NDOIS) Conventional Spread Report

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Best Information Ratio - 1y Forward 1s2s (100/-100)

Highest Z-Score - 1y Forward 5s10s (100/-100)


27

14
9

Lowest Z-Score - 1y Forward 1s2s (100/-100)


14
9

22

4
17

(1)
(6)

(1)
(6)

12

(11)

(11)
7

(16)

(16)

(21)

Spot 1s2s (100/-100)

(21)

Spot 1s3s (100/-100)

Spot 1s5s (100/-100)


81

10

29

61

(1)

41

9
(11)

21
(12)

(21)
(31)

1
(19)

(32)

(41)

(39)
(52)

(51)

(59)

(61)

(72)

Spot 2s3s (100/-100)

(79)

Spot 2s5s (100/-100)

Spot 3s5s (100/-100)

27

64

22

54

17

44

12

34

24

14

(3)

(8)

(6)

(13)

(16)

(6)

(18)

(26)

(16)

44
34
24
14
4

Source: Nomura
20

INR (NDOIS) Conventional Butterfly Report

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Best Information Ratio - Spot 1s2s5s (50/50)

Highest Z-Score - Spot 1s2s5s (50/50)

Lowest Z-Score - Spot 2s5s7s (50/50)


26

(7.5)

(7.5)

(12.5)

(12.5)

(17.5)

(17.5)

(22.5)

(22.5)

21
16
11
6
1
(4)

(27.5)

(27.5)

(32.5)

(32.5)

Spot 1s2s3s (50/50)

(9)
(14)

Spot 1s2s5s (50/50)

Spot 1s3s5s (50/50)


4

(1)

(8)

(1)

(6)

(6)

(13)

(11)

(11)
(18)

(16)

(16)

(21)

(23)

(21)

(26)
(26)

(28)

(31)

(33)

Spot 2s3s5s (50/50)


2

16
11

(8)

6
1

(13)

(18)

(36)

Spot 2s5s7s (50/50)


26
21

(3)

(31)

(4)

Spot 2s5s10s (50/50)


23
18
13
8
3
(3)
(8)

(9)

(13)

(14)

(18)

Source: Nomura
21

INR (NDOIS) PCA-Weighted Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Structure

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

Total Return Analysis


Abs

%tile

Half

Sprd4
23.3

1s2s

Life5

Box Plot

Exp.

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

214.9

Spot

100

(82)

56

(23)

173.3

(0.4)

0.3

(1.2)

159.5

176.6

26.5

0.5

54.4

13.8

85.7

(33.1)

(1.3)

(13.5)

(3.8)

(17.3)

3m

100

(78)

56

(22)

188.6

(0.4)

(0.3)

(5.1)

179.1

186.2

19.5

0.5

55.2

9.5

43.4

(11.1)

(0.7)

0.0

(15.1)

(15.1)

6m

100

(82)

55

(24)

149.0

(0.5)

0.2

(5.3)

141.6

145.6

13.9

0.5

59.0

7.4

31.5

(2.7)

(0.3)

0.0

(10.3)

(10.3)

1y

100

(94)

54

(27)

52.0

(0.2)

1.7

(2.6)

44.6

45.7

8.6

0.9

74.3

7.3

13.1

5.6

1.3

0.0

(4.1)

(4.1)

26.5

1s3s

275.9

Spot

100

(75)

56

(14)

230.4

(0.5)

1.5

(2.0)

207.5

234.0

36.4

0.6

62.0

22.9

91.6

(44.6)

(1.3)

(16.9)

(6.3)

(23.2)

3m

100

(71)

56

(14)

241.6

(0.5)

0.7

(7.2)

226.0

237.4

26.8

0.6

60.0

15.5

49.1

(15.8)

(0.7)

0.0

(20.1)

(20.1)

6m

100

(76)

55

(15)

189.7

(0.7)

1.0

(8.0)

178.1

184.9

20.0

0.6

64.4

11.7

37.4

(5.2)

(0.4)

0.0

(14.4)

(14.4)

1y

100

(92)

54

(18)

65.9

(0.3)

2.2

(5.2)

56.0

58.3

12.9

0.8

73.7

9.9

20.2

6.2

0.8

0.0

(5.8)

(5.8)

37.3

1s5s

323.5

Spot

100

(72)

56

(9)

256.6

(0.6)

2.0

(3.5)

225.2

260.1

46.3

0.7

66.2

31.5

93.5

(49.3)

(1.1)

(19.8)

(7.4)

(27.2)

3m

100

(65)

56

(8)

276.2

(0.7)

0.6

(9.4)

255.6

271.0

34.2

0.6

59.6

20.6

52.4

(18.2)

(0.6)

0.0

(23.5)

(23.5)

6m

100

(70)

55

(9)

224.9

(0.8)

0.5

(10.3)

209.7

219.3

26.2

0.6

64.4

15.1

40.8

(6.5)

(0.3)

0.0

(16.8)

(16.8)

1y

100

(88)

54

(11)

86.3

(0.4)

1.4

(6.6)

74.6

78.4

17.0

0.7

74.1

11.7

25.6

5.8

0.5

0.0

(7.2)

(7.2)

-10.3

2s3s

78.6

Spot

100

(92)

28

(18)

69.8

(0.2)

1.5

(1.0)

58.8

65.3

12.5

0.9

84.2

11.1

59.2

(2.6)

(0.2)

(4.2)

(3.1)

(7.3)

3m

100

(91)

29

(18)

68.2

(0.1)

1.2

(2.7)

60.5

64.4

9.7

0.8

78.7

7.7

44.0

(1.3)

(0.2)

0.0

(6.5)

(6.5)

6m

100

(93)

29

(18)

49.9

(0.2)

0.9

(3.3)

44.6

46.8

7.6

0.7

71.9

5.3

32.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

(5.0)

(5.0)

1y

100

(97)

29

(19)

14.7

(0.1)

0.6

(2.8)

12.0

12.3

5.3

0.5

67.1

2.7

8.2

2.3

1.1

0.0

(1.8)

(1.8)

0.2

2s5s

140.0

Spot

100

(87)

28

(11)

101.9

(0.3)

2.1

(2.9)

80.3

96.8

24.9

0.9

83.3

21.6

77.0

(8.1)

(0.3)

(7.7)

(4.4)

(12.1)

3m

100

(84)

29

(10)

112.8

(0.3)

1.2

(5.5)

98.6

106.9

19.3

0.7

72.5

14.2

49.0

(2.6)

(0.2)

0.0

(10.9)

(10.9)

6m

100

(86)

29

(11)

92.8

(0.4)

0.4

(6.2)

83.3

88.0

15.3

0.6

68.3

9.5

35.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

(8.0)

(8.0)

1y

100

(93)

29

(12)

36.4

(0.2)

(0.3)

(4.2)

31.8

32.9

9.9

0.5

65.0

4.6

14.7

3.1

0.6

0.0

(3.3)

(3.3)

-14.9

2s7s

146.8

Spot

100

(86)

28

(8)

109.1

(0.3)

2.0

(3.3)

85.8

101.5

26.8

0.9

82.7

23.4

67.6

(7.3)

(0.3)

(9.4)

(4.9)

(14.3)

3m

100

(84)

29

(8)

111.5

(0.3)

1.0

(5.9)

96.1

103.9

20.6

0.7

73.9

15.4

43.9

(1.7)

(0.1)

0.0

(12.4)

(12.4)

6m

100

(86)

29

(8)

85.2

(0.4)

0.3

(6.5)

74.9

79.4

16.4

0.6

69.5

10.3

32.4

1.2

0.1

0.0

(8.9)

(8.9)

1y

100

(94)

29

(9)

19.4

(0.2)

(0.5)

(4.2)

14.5

15.6

11.0

0.4

68.9

4.9

15.2

3.3

0.5

0.0

(3.3)

(3.3)

-27.6

2s10s

154.6

Spot

100

(84)

28

(6)

114.0

(0.3)

1.9

(3.6)

89.8

106.0

28.4

0.9

81.3

24.2

65.6

(6.6)

(0.2)

(10.5)

(4.3)

(14.8)

3m

100

(83)

29

(6)

113.2

(0.3)

0.9

(6.3)

97.4

105.5

21.7

0.7

74.3

15.8

43.3

(1.8)

(0.1)

0.0

(12.9)

(12.9)

6m

100

(86)

29

(6)

83.1

(0.4)

0.1

(6.7)

72.8

77.4

17.2

0.6

69.5

10.4

32.3

1.3

0.1

0.0

(9.0)

(9.0)

1y

100

(95)

29

(7)

8.8

(0.1)

(0.6)

(4.1)

4.0

5.1

11.6

0.4

70.3

4.8

15.6

3.4

0.5

0.0

(2.8)

(2.8)

47.4

3.6

0.3

(3.8)

(1.5)

(5.3)

-13.3

3s5s
Spot

100

Source: Nomura

(95)

19

(11)

34.9

(0.1)

0.7

(2.0)

23.5

28.9

13.8

0.8

83.8

11.4

67.5

22

INR (NDOIS) PCA-Weighted Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Total Return Analysis


Abs

Half

Exp.

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

%tile

Sprd4

3m

100

(93)

19

(11)

49.0

(0.2)

(0.0)

(3.1)

41.9

44.8

10.9

0.7

69.9

7.2

31.7

2.4

6m

100

(93)

20

(11)

46.2

(0.2)

(0.5)

(3.1)

41.7

43.2

8.6

0.5

64.0

4.6

21.9

2.3

1y

100

(96)

20

(12)

22.2

(0.1)

(0.9)

(1.5)

20.3

20.7

5.3

0.4

64.2

1.9

8.6

Structure

-18.4

3s7s

Life5

Box Plot

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

0.3

0.0

(4.8)

(4.8)

0.4

0.0

(3.3)

(3.3)

1.5

0.7

0.0

(1.6)

(1.6)

74.9

Spot

100

(93)

19

(8)

42.9

(0.1)

0.5

(2.5)

29.5

34.9

16.1

0.8

77.9

13.4

40.4

3.7

0.3

(5.7)

(2.0)

(7.6)

3m

100

(92)

19

(8)

47.6

(0.2)

(0.2)

(3.6)

39.1

41.9

12.6

0.7

69.3

8.5

27.8

2.8

0.3

0.0

(6.5)

(6.5)

6m

100

(93)

20

(9)

38.0

(0.2)

(0.7)

(3.4)

32.7

34.2

10.1

0.5

66.7

5.4

20.6

2.7

0.4

0.0

(4.2)

(4.2)

1y

100

(97)

20

(9)

4.8

(0.1)

(1.1)

(1.4)

2.6

3.0

7.0

0.3

68.7

2.2

11.3

1.7

0.5

0.0

(1.6)

(1.6)

-34.2

3s10s

83.5

Spot

100

(92)

19

(6)

48.2

(0.2)

0.4

(2.9)

33.8

40.0

18.0

0.8

76.1

14.3

40.7

3.8

0.3

(6.9)

(1.4)

(8.2)

3m

100

(91)

19

(6)

49.4

(0.2)

(0.4)

(4.0)

40.5

43.7

14.0

0.6

69.5

8.9

28.4

2.7

0.3

0.0

(7.0)

(7.0)

6m

100

(92)

20

(6)

35.8

(0.2)

(0.9)

(3.7)

30.3

32.1

11.2

0.5

67.5

5.5

21.2

2.7

0.4

0.0

(4.2)

(4.2)

1y

100

(98)

20

(7)

(6.1)

(0.1)

(1.2)

(1.4)

(8.2)

(7.8)

7.9

0.3

67.3

2.1

12.1

1.7

0.4

0.0

(1.0)

(1.0)

-27.7

5s7s
Spot

100

3m
6m
1y

18.0

(98)

12

(9)

8.3

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.5)

6.3

6.5

3.6

0.6

67.3

2.0

12.0

1.1

0.6

(1.9)

(0.6)

(2.5)

100

(99)

12

(9)

(1.6)

(0.0)

(0.2)

(0.5)

(3.0)

(2.8)

3.5

0.4

65.6

1.4

11.8

0.7

0.4

0.0

(1.8)

(1.8)

100

(100)

12

(9)

(8.8)

(0.0)

(0.2)

(0.4)

(9.7)

(9.7)

3.4

0.3

60.0

0.9

11.9

0.5

0.3

0.0

(1.0)

(1.0)

100

(101)

13

(9)

(18.3)

0.0

(0.2)

0.1

(18.6)

(18.6)

3.2

0.1

51.2

0.3

10.8

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

-44.3

5s10s

31.3

Spot

100

(96)

12

(7)

13.9

(0.1)

(0.3)

(0.8)

10.8

11.5

5.8

0.5

68.3

3.0

16.9

1.4

0.4

(3.2)

0.1

(3.1)

3m

100

(98)

12

(7)

0.4

(0.1)

(0.3)

(0.9)

(1.5)

(1.1)

5.3

0.4

65.6

1.9

15.3

0.7

0.2

0.0

(2.4)

(2.4)

6m

100

(99)

12

(7)

(11.2)

(0.0)

(0.3)

(0.7)

(12.2)

(12.1)

5.0

0.2

62.8

1.0

14.2

0.6

0.2

0.0

(1.1)

(1.1)

1y

100

(102)

13

(7)

(29.6)

0.0

(0.3)

0.2

(29.8)

(29.9)

4.6

0.0

47.5

0.2

11.3

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.6

0.6

-29.2

1s2s3s

-2.4

Spot

(34)

(66)

(19)

28

(13)

(9.1)

0.0

1.0

(0.3)

(12.3)

(12.2)

2.8

1.2

85.4

3.2

8.0

3.4

2.9

1.6

(0.9)

0.7

3m

(36)

(66)

(20)

29

(13)

(18.5)

0.1

1.0

(0.1)

(20.7)

(20.7)

2.0

1.1

85.6

2.2

5.7

2.3

3.3

0.0

0.7

0.7

6m

(38)

(64)

(21)

29

(13)

(22.3)

0.0

0.6

(0.3)

(23.1)

(23.1)

1.4

0.6

71.5

0.8

2.8

0.9

2.8

0.0

0.4

0.4

1y

(40)

(60)

(22)

29

(12)

(11.7)

0.1

(0.3)

(0.7)

(10.5)

(10.5)

2.3

(0.6)

27.2

1.3

2.2

1.2

2.7

0.0

0.6

0.6

-57.6

1s2s5s

-1.0

Spot

(54)

(49)

(30)

28

(6)

(35.7)

0.1

1.0

(1.0)

(40.4)

(40.3)

4.4

1.1

83.1

4.7

13.6

5.8

2.4

2.9

(0.4)

2.5

3m

(57)

(47)

(32)

29

(6)

(43.2)

0.1

0.8

(0.2)

(45.8)

(45.8)

3.1

0.8

78.9

2.6

6.3

3.1

2.8

0.0

2.4

2.4

6m

(59)

(45)

(32)

29

(6)

(39.3)

0.1

0.1

(0.1)

(39.9)

(39.9)

2.5

0.2

58.0

0.6

3.8

0.8

1.2

0.0

1.8

1.8

1y

(58)

(42)

(32)

29

(5)

(13.7)

0.1

(1.1)

(0.4)

(11.5)

(11.6)

3.2

(0.7)

23.6

2.2

3.1

2.1

2.6

0.0

0.9

0.9

-56.5

1s3s5s

5.1

Spot

(29)

(74)

(16)

19

(9)

(40.4)

0.1

0.1

(1.0)

(42.6)

(42.6)

3.5

0.6

74.5

2.2

6.8

2.8

2.2

2.0

0.7

2.7

3m

(31)

(72)

(18)

19

(9)

(37.6)

0.0

(0.2)

(0.2)

(38.3)

(38.4)

2.7

0.3

59.2

0.7

4.3

1.0

1.3

0.0

2.6

2.6

6m

(32)

(70)

(18)

20

(9)

(26.6)

0.1

(0.7)

0.3

(26.3)

(26.3)

2.4

(0.1)

44.5

0.3

3.4

0.1

0.2

0.0

2.2

2.2

Source: Nomura

23

INR (NDOIS) PCA-Weighted Spread & Butterfly Report

Risk Wtg1

Notionals2

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Change (bp)

2-Year
Model

Structure
1y

Total Return Analysis


Abs

Curr

1d

1w

1m

Avg

Avg3

St
Dev

ZScore

%tile

Sprd4

(30)

(70)

(16)

20

(9)

(3.3)

(0.0)

(1.3)

0.5

(1.8)

(1.8)

2.5

(0.6)

25.4

1.5

Half

-32.1

2s3s5s

Life5

Box Plot

Exp.

3m RD&C

Info

Return6 Ratio7

Cry

RD

RD&C8

2.7

1.5

2.6

0.0

0.6

0.6

10.7

Spot

(55)

(48)

(15)

19

(6)

(20.8)

0.0

(0.5)

(0.5)

(20.5)

(20.5)

1.9

(0.2)

38.7

0.4

3.2

0.2

0.5

0.4

1.0

1.4

3m

(56)

(46)

(16)

19

(6)

(13.6)

(0.0)

(0.7)

(0.1)

(12.9)

(12.9)

1.7

(0.5)

30.4

0.7

3.3

0.6

1.6

0.0

1.2

1.2

6m

(55)

(45)

(16)

20

(6)

(4.9)

0.0

(0.8)

0.3

(4.3)

(4.3)

1.4

(0.5)

29.4

0.7

2.5

0.6

2.3

0.0

1.2

1.2

1y

(51)

(48)

(15)

20

(6)

3.7

(0.0)

(0.8)

0.7

4.1

4.1

1.6

(0.3)

37.9

0.4

1.6

0.4

1.5

0.0

0.1

0.1

-28.5

2s5s7s

8.5

Spot

(7)

(92)

(2)

12

(8)

0.5

(0.0)

(0.3)

(0.2)

0.1

0.2

2.8

0.1

56.8

0.4

9.2

(0.0)

(0.0)

(1.3)

(0.2)

(1.5)

3m

(6)

(94)

(2)

12

(9)

(8.8)

(0.0)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(9.2)

(9.2)

3.0

0.1

55.8

0.4

10.8

0.1

0.1

0.0

(1.0)

(1.0)

6m

(6)

(94)

(2)

12

(9)

(14.4)

(0.0)

(0.2)

0.1

(14.6)

(14.6)

3.0

0.1

50.0

0.2

11.5

0.1

0.1

0.0

(0.4)

(0.4)

1y

(9)

(93)

(3)

13

(9)

(19.9)

0.0

(0.1)

0.4

(19.8)

(19.9)

2.8

(0.0)

45.3

0.1

10.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.3

-41.9

2s5s10s

12.9

Spot

(13)

(86)

(4)

12

(6)

(0.4)

(0.0)

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.4)

(0.3)

4.1

(0.0)

55.0

0.0

12.1

0.5

0.2

(1.9)

0.6

(1.2)

3m

(11)

(88)

(3)

12

(6)

(12.5)

(0.0)

(0.4)

(0.2)

(12.6)

(12.6)

4.3

0.0

50.8

0.1

13.4

(0.3)

(0.1)

0.0

(0.9)

(0.9)

6m

(11)

(90)

(3)

12

(6)

(20.1)

0.0

(0.4)

0.0

(20.0)

(20.0)

4.3

(0.0)

43.7

0.1

13.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

(0.1)

(0.1)

1y

(11)

(92)

(3)

13

(7)

(30.6)

0.0

(0.2)

0.6

(30.3)

(30.4)

4.1

(0.1)

45.1

0.3

10.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.9

0.9

Notes
1. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed using rolling 2-year INR rates; risk weights are determined so that the trades are level/slope neutral
2. Notional amount for the belly of a butterfly trade (left leg of a curve trade) is fixed at USD 100,000
3. Model average is the long-term equilibrium level as implied by Nomura's Statistical Mean-Reversion Model
4. Spread is the absolute difference between current level and life-time average
5. Half-life is the number of days for the time series to mean-revert toward long-term average by 50%, as computed by the Statistical Mean-Reversion Model
6. Expected return includes mean reversion toward life-time average, RD&C, and transaction cost; the trade horizon is assumed to be two times the half-life or the maturity of the shortest leg, whichever occurs first
7. Information ratio is annualized expected return divided by annualized historical volatility
8. Carry and rolldown assume receiving the belly
9. Box plots show current value (red diamond), min, max, average, and the 25th & 75th percentiles
current

min
25th
percentile

Source: Nomura

max

avg
75th percentile

24

INR (NDOIS) PCA-Weighted Spread Report

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Best Information Ratio - 1y Forward 1s2s (-100/94)


63

Highest Z-Score - Spot 2s3s (-100/92)


(20)

72

58

67
(25)

53

62

48

57

43

52

38

47

33

42

28

37

23

32

Spot 1s2s (-100/82)


192

(30)
(35)
(40)
(45)

Spot 1s3s (-100/75)


248

172
162

228

249

208

229

152

209

188

142

189

132

168
169

122
148

112
102

129

Spot 2s5s (-100/87)


118

Fitted Residual - Factor 1


60.0

120.0

40.0

100.0

108
98

42

48

37

38

32

28

0.0
(20.0)

-12.3

58

-11.1

68

47

80.0
-8.8

52

20.0

3.0

78

13.8

88

57

25.1

62

149

128

Spot 2s3s (-100/92)

67

Spot 1s5s (-100/72)

269

182

72

Lowest Z-Score - 1y Forward 5s10s (-100/102)

60.0
40.0
20.0

(40.0)

0.0

(60.0)

1y

2y

3y

5y

7y

10y

Source: Nomura
25

INR (NDOIS) PCA-Weighted Butterfly Report

Trade Date: 10/09/2012

Best Information Ratio - Spot 1s2s3s (34/66)


(2.7)

Highest Z-Score - Spot 1s2s3s (34/66)

Lowest Z-Score - Spot 2s3s5s (55/48)

(2.7)
(17)
(19)

(7.7)

(7.7)

(12.7)

(12.7)

(17.7)

(17.7)

(22.7)

(22.7)

(21)
(23)
(25)
(27)
(29)
(31)

Spot 1s2s3s (34/66)


(3)

(33)

Spot 1s2s5s (54/49)

Spot 1s3s5s (29/74)

(25)
(37)

(30)
(8)
(35)
(13)

(42)

(40)
(47)
(45)

(18)

(52)

(50)
(23)

(55)

Spot 2s3s5s (55/48)

Spot 2s5s7s (7/92)


9

(17)
(19)

6.0

3.3

2.0

-2.3

(6)

(31)

-0.9

0.0
(2.0)

-1.1

-0.4

1.3

(1)

(27)

(33)

10.0

4.0

(23)

(29)

Fitted Residual - Factors 1 & 2

8.0

(21)

(25)

(57)

(4.0)
(6.0)

(11)

(8.0)
(10.0)

1y

2y

3y

5y

7y

20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

10y

Source: Nomura
26

Nomura | Rates RV Analytics

Disclosure Appendix A-1


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