Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations

from the Faculty of Science and Technology 1028

Predictive Modeling of
Lake Eutrophication
BY
JAN MIKAEL MALMAEUS
ACTA UNIVERSITATIS UPSALIENSIS
UPPSALA 2004
Dissertation presented at Uppsala University to be publicly examined in Hambergsalen,
Geocentrum, Uppsala, Friday, November 12, 2004 at 10:00 Ior the degree oI Doctor oI
Philosophy. The examination will be conducted in English.

Malmaeus, J M. 2004. Predictive Modeling oI Lake Eutrophication. Acta Universitatis

Upsaliensis. Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science
ana Technology 1028. 37 pp. Uppsala. ISBN 91-554-6065-8
This thesis presents predictive models Ior important variables concerning eutrophication
eIIects in lakes. The keystone is a dynamic phosphorus model based on ordinary diIIerential
equations. By calculating mass Iluxes oI phosphorus into, within and out Irom a lake, the
concentrations oI diIIerent Iorms oI phosphorus in diIIerent compartments oI the lake are
estimated.
The dynamic phosphorus model is critically tested and several improvements are presented,
including two new compartments Ior colloidal phosphorus, a sub-model Ior suspended
particulate matter (SPM) and new algorithms Ior lake outIlow, water mixing, diIIusion, water
content and organic content oI accumulation sediments are implemented. Predictions with the
new version show good agreement against empirical data in Iive tested lakes.
The sub-model Ior SPM uses the same driving variables as the basic phosphorus model, so
the inclusion oI this model as a sub-model does not require any additional variables. The
model Ior SPM may also be used as a separate model giving monthly predictions oI
suspended particulate matter in two water compartments and one compartment with SPM
available Ior resuspension in ET-sediments.
Empirical data Irom Lake Erken (Sweden) and Lake Balaton (Hungary) are used to
evaluate the variability in settling velocity oI SPM. It is Iound that the variability is substantial
and may be accounted Ior by using a dimensionless moderator Ior SPM concentration.
Empirical data Irom accumulation area sediments in Lake Erken are used to develop a model
Ior the dynamics oI phosphorus sedimentation, burial and diIIusion in the sediments. The
model is shown to provide reasonable monthly predictions oI Iour Iunctional Iorms oI
phosphorus at diIIerent sediment depths.
Simulations with the lake phosphorus model using two diIIerent climate scenarios indicate
that lakes may respond very diIIerently to climate change depending on their physical
character. Lake Erken, with a water retention time oI 7 years, appears to be much more
sensitive than two basins oI Lake Mlaren (Sweden) with substantially shorter retention times.
The implication would be that in eutrophic lakes with long water retention times,
eutrophication problems may become serious iI the Iuture becomes warmer. This will be
important in contexts oI lake management when remedial measures against lake
eutrophication have to be taken.
Keyworas. mass balance model, dynamic model, mechanistic model, phosphorus, LEEDS,
suspended particulate matter, settling velocity, sedimentation, accumulation sediments, burial,
diIIusion, climate scenario, Erken, Balaton, Kinneret, Batorino, Miastro, Naroch, Galten,
Ekoln
Jan Mikael Malmaeus, Department of Earth Sciences, Jillav. 16, Uppsala University,
SE-75236 Uppsala, Sweaen
Jan Mikael Malmaeus 2004
ISSN 1104-232X
ISBN 91-554-6065-8
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-4625 (http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urnurn:nbn:se:uu:diva-4625)
Get behind the mule
In the morning and plow
Tom Waits
List of Papers
This thesis is based on the following papers, which in the comprehensive
summary will be referred to by their Roman numerals:
I Malmaeus J.M. and Hkanson L., 2004. Development of a
Lake Eutrophication Model. Ecol. Model. 171, 35-63.
II Malmaeus J.M. and Hkanson L., 2003. A dynamic model to
predict suspended particulate matter in lakes. Ecol. Model.
167, 247-262.
III Malmaeus J.M., 2004. Variation in the Settling Velocity of
Suspended Particulate Matter in Shallow Lakes, with Special
Implications for Mass Balance Modelling. Int. Rev. Hydro-
biol. 89, 426-438.
IV Malmaeus J.M. and Rydin E., 2004. A dynamic phosphorus
model for the profundal sediments of Lake Erken, Sweden.
Manuscript.
V Malmaeus J.M., Blenckner T., Markensten H. and Persson I.,
2004. Lake phosphorus dynamics and climate warming: A
mechanistic model approach. Submitted.
Contents
1 Introduction ...........................................................................................9
1.1 Background and aim.....................................................................9
1.2 Predictive (mass-balance) modeling.............................................9
1.3 Lake eutrophication....................................................................12
1.4 Climatic change..........................................................................13
2 Study areas...........................................................................................15
2.1 Lake Erken .................................................................................16
2.2 Lake Mlaren..............................................................................16
2.3 Belarusian lakes..........................................................................17
2.4 Lake Balaton...............................................................................17
2.5 Lake Kinneret .............................................................................17
3 Lake models.........................................................................................19
3.1 The LEEDS-model .....................................................................19
3.2 The SPM-model .........................................................................20
3.3 Sedimentation.............................................................................22
3.4 Diffusion.....................................................................................23
4 Model application: Climatic change....................................................25
5 Main findings.......................................................................................28
6 Conclusions .........................................................................................29
7 Acknowledgements..............................................................................31
8 Summary in Swedish...........................................................................32
9 References ...........................................................................................34
9
Introduction
1.1 Background and aim
Ecological modeling may be used to structure different types of informa-
tion about complex natural systems, to test hypotheses about the function
of these systems and to make predictions about the systems response to
natural or anthropogenic perturbations. There are many types of models
and modeling approaches, and there is no clear definition of what actually
constitutes a scientific model. Generally, models complement field stud-
ies and laboratory experiments in the pursuit of scientific knowledge.
Without empirical data to drive and test models, they are useless. In com-
plex systems, however, empirical data may be of limited use if there are
no models to structure and interpret the data.
This work deals with one specific environmental problem (eutrophica-
tion) in one type of ecosystem (lakes) using one modeling approach. The
starting point is a lake eutrophication model with certain specifications
and limitations, and the basic aim of this thesis is to test and develop this
model in order to obtain a practically useful tool in water research and
management. Paper I and II define and develop the model and its sub-
models. In Paper III and IV, internal lake processes are studied using
exclusive data sets in order to improve the description of these processes
within the framework of predictive mass-balance models. Paper V is an
application of the lake eutrophication model where the impact of climate
change on lake eutrophication is explored in three Swedish lakes.
1.2 Predictive (mass-balance) modeling
Since modeling is a wide concept, this section will try to clarify the inten-
tions and methods of the modeling contained within this thesis. Basically,
a predictive model is defined by its intention to predict masses or fluxes
of specified target variables in a given type of system at a given frame of
time. Models for predicting mass balances of substances in aquatic sys-
tems have been widely used since Vollenweider proposed his famous
phosphorus model in 1968 (Vollenweider, 1968). In contrast to most
10
stochastic models and regression models, mass balance models try to
capture the most important processes in a system using differential equa-
tions. The principal idea is to treat the system as one or several mixed
reactors where mass is conserved. In its simplest form, a mass balance
model for a substance in a lake may be defined as:
dM/dt = Inflow Outflow Sedimentation (1)
where dM/dt is the rate of mass change of the substance. This model may
be expanded with more internal processes or divisions of the system into
a number of subsystems, such as surface water, deep water and sedi-
ments. The optimal level of complexity depends on a number of factors
including uncertainty in and access to driving variables and the purpose
of the model. Modeling a complex reality sometimes requires complex
models, but if the complexity cannot be supported by empirical data and
solid mechanistic understanding, model parameterization becomes unsta-
ble and calibration and validation may become problematical (see, e.g.,
Hkanson and Peters, 1995; Monte, 1996; Canham et al., 2003).
Mass balance models may be used as engineering tools in, e.g., lake
management and/or as tools for water research. This work is mainly fo-
cused on scientific understanding about processes, but the ultimate aim is
to strengthen the mechanistic foundation in predictive lake eutrophication
models, hoping to improve the ability to make quantitative predictions.
Here, this means that the lake models are rather complex and that each
included process should correspond to one well defined (and measurable)
process in the natural system. In several cases, the processes may be more
readily accessed by mass balance calculations than by empirical studies.
For instance, this is often true for processes of outflow, water mixing and
phosphorus release from accumulation sediments.
Choosing appropriate spatial and temporal scales is crucial for suc-
cessful modeling. To obtain time and area compatibility between mod-
eled and measured information about the system requires a sound struc-
turing of empirical data into appropriate time and spatial units.
To exemplify the issue of time resolution, a data base for chlorophyll
concentration from the River Danube (a site close to Regensburg) will be
used (see Hkanson et al., 2003a). Figure 1 gives a compilation of CV-
values calculated for empirical mean values from weekly, two types of
monthly values (individual monthly data and monthly data based on val-
ues from several years) and yearly values, as well as the CV-value for the
459 individual data of chlorophyll concentration (CV = coefficient of
variation = SD/MV; SD = standard deviation, MV = mean value; CV is a
11
Figure 1. Compilation of CV-values based on mean values from different time
intervals; daily, weekly, monthly (from individual months and monthly data from
several years), yearly and all data from 1995-1999 for chlorophyll from the River
Danube (Regensburg station). The box-and-whisker plot to the right gives for
comparative purposes CV-values based on all data from several years from 19
UK rivers. The results for the UK river sites should be compared to the CV-value
of 0.96 calculated using all data from the Regensburg station (from Hkanson et
al., 2003a).
standard measure of variability in any given variable). It is clear that
when a longer time period is considered, higher variation in any variable
may be expected than for a shorter period of time. Theoretically, this
would imply that a high time resolution should be preferred. On the other
hand, it is nearly impossible or very laborious to access reliable data on a
long term basis at short time scales, which means that there is a practical
lower limit on the time resolution. There should be an optimal time scale
where the combined shortcomings of uncertainty and accessibility have a
minimum. This is illustrated in figure 2. In practical applications in con-
texts of lake studies, this optimum is often found between one week and
one month.
CV
CV for Chl
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Days Weeks Individual
months
By
month
several
years
Years All data
5 years
All data
several
years,
among 19
UK river
sites
MV: 0.35 0.55 0.80 0.95 0.96 1.22
N=5
N=12
N=47
N=62
n 3
12
Figure 2. Illustration of factors regulating the optimal size of practically useful
predictive models in aquatic ecology. From Hkanson (2004).
The same argument for modeling at a time scale would be relevant for
spatial resolution. The lake models used in this thesis separate surface
water from deep water, but assume complete mixing within these two
compartments. In addition to technical reasons, there is a user perspective
on time and space resolution. What model output does a lake manager
need to make decisions about a given system? Mass balance models giv-
ing monthly predictions of average concentrations of nutrients in lakes
may be preferred for several reasons.
There exists an abundance of different lake eutrophication models, us-
ing different scales, target variables, modeling structures and driving
variables (see, e.g., Imboden and Gchter, 1978; Jrgensen et al., 1986;
Chapra and Canale, 1991; Del Furia et al., 1995). It is generally hard to
make meaningful comparisons of model performance since the intentions
and circumstances are very different. Interesting attempts have been done
by, e.g., Strakraba (1994), Seo and Canale (1995), Canale and Seo
(1995) and Jrgensen (1999).
1.3 Lake eutrophication
The term eutrophic refers to a system rich in nutrients, and hence eutro-
phication means nutrient enrichment, particularly by increasing levels of
nitrogen and phosphorus (e.g., Vollenweider, 1990; Wetzel, 2001; Kalff,
2002). In lakes, phosphorus is generally regarded as the limiting nutrient
for primary production (see, e.g., Dillon and Rigler, 1974; Schindler,
1977; Guildford and Hecky, 2000), implying that increasing phosphorus
Day Week Month Year
CV
Accessibility
of data (Ac =1/d)
Criteria of
usefulness
Optimal curve for predictive models
(Op = 10(1CV^2)Ac)
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
V
a
l
u
e

(
C
V
,

A
c
,

O
p
)

13
concentrations will result in increasing production of phytoplankton and
benthic algae. Excessive amounts of phytoplankton cause low Secchi
depths and may consequently wipe out the benthic flora by shading the
light (e.g., Scheffer et al., 1993; Egertson et al., 2004). Toxic cyanobacte-
ria tend to bloom when nutrient levels are high (e.g., Paerl and Ustach,
1982; Paerl, 1988; Bowling, 1994). Apart from being a nuisance in their
own right, settling phytoplankton may cause anoxia in hypolimnetic wa-
ters as their decomposition consumes oxygen (e.g., Seto et al., 1982), and
this may result in extinction of the benthic fauna (e.g., Jnasson, 1984)
and fish feeding on such animals. Altogether, these eutrophication effects
threaten the foundations of aquatic ecosystems. The low oxygen levels in
hypolimnetic waters associated with eutrophication may also cause mobi-
lization of phosphorus in the sediments, thus inducing a feedback mecha-
nism where already high nutrient levels increase even more.
Sources of phosphorus in lakes include anthropogenic sewage, fertiliz-
ers used in agriculture and emissions from industries in addition to natu-
ral sources. In the 1970s, effluent water treatment was introduced in
many places and water quality improved (e.g., SNV, 1993; Wilander and
Persson, 2001). Expected recovery was, however, delayed in some lakes
where phosphorus accumulated in the sediments continued to release
significant amounts even after the external emissions were reduced (Ahl-
gren, 1977; Marsden, 1989). Today eutrophication remains a problem in a
relatively small number of lakes, but these lakes tend to be situated close
to populated areas where they play an important role for fishing and rec-
reation. Less than 800 out of 60000 Swedish lakes larger than 4 ha may
be regarded as eutrophicated, with total phosphorus concentrations ex-
ceeding 25gl
-1
(SNV, 2004).
1.4 Climatic change
Climatic change and fluctuations in temperature and precipitation is natu-
ral both on long and short time scales (Petit et al., 1999; Santer et al.,
2000; Sepp and Birks, 2001). However, emissions of greenhouse gases
(especially carbon dioxide, CO
2
) from the burning of fossil fuel since the
beginning of the industrial revolution is now generally accepted to be the
cause of the observed climate warming in the last decades (e.g., Stott et
al., 2000; IPCC, 2001b). Observations of the Earth's near-surface tem-
perature show a global mean temperature increase of approximately 0.6
C since 1900 (Tett et al., 1999).
14
To prevent this climatic change seems very difficult since the sources
of carbon dioxide e.g., oil and carbon power plants and petrol driven
cars are deeply built into society, and in most parts of the world emis-
sions tend to increase rather than decrease. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the UN in 1988, has proposed
a number of scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions for the next hundred
years, and these scenarios are used by scientists to make predictions
about the effect on the earths climate. Although there are many uncer-
tainties involved, model projections indicate that the mean temperature of
the earth will increase between 1.4 and 5.8 C until year 2100 relative to
1990 (IPCC, 2001a). Timing and distribution of precipitation is also ex-
pected to change, even though these predictions remain even more uncer-
tain than the temperature predictions.
Obviously, these changes provide great challenges for both man and
nature, also in aquatic ecosystems. Climatic change is not a major theme
in this thesis but is considered because it may affect the nutrient status of
lakes. The warming of the earth may also be seen as a very large scale
experiment. Just as the Chernobyl accident in 1986 provided environ-
mental scientists with an opportunity to test and develop their models of
transport processes in nature, the climate changes may be used by re-
searchers to study and calibrate the temperature dependence of their
models.
15
2 Study areas
In this thesis, seven lakes from Europe and the Mediterranean area are
included for data collection and model developments. These lakes are
Lake Erken (Sweden), Lake Mlaren (Sweden), Lake Batorino (Belarus),
Lake Miastro (Belarus), Lake Naroch (Belarus), Lake Balaton (Hungary)
Figure 3. Geographic locations of the lakes included in this thesis.
Lake Naroch
Lake Miastro
Lake Batorino
Lake Erken
Lake Mlaren
Lake Balaton
Lake Kinneret
16
Table 1. Lake characteristics.
Lake
area
(km
2
)
Mean
depth
(m)
Water
retention
time
(years)
Mean
annual
epilim-
netic
tempera-
ture
(C)
Mean
total
phospho-
rus
concen-
tration
(gl
-1
)
Mean
summer
chloro-
phyll
concen-
tration
(gl
-1
)
L. Erken 24 9 7.4 8.6 27 4.2
L. Mlaren 1096 12.8 2.8 7.4 20-55 4-22
L. Batorino 6.3 3 0.65 8.9 60 27.1
L. Miastro 13 5.4 1.7 8.9 40 12.1
L. Naroch 80 9 8.1 8.9 22 4.0
L. Balaton 596 3.2 1.3 13 55-90 8-25
L. Kinneret 160 24 7.3 22 27 14.5
and Lake Kinneret (Israel and Syria). The locations of the lakes are
shown in figure 3. Lake characteristics are summarized in table 1.
2.1 Lake Erken
Lake Erken is a naturally mesotrophic, stratified (dimictic) lake with a
small (141 km
2
) forest dominated catchment (Weyhenmeyer, 1999).
There are no industrial activities or point sources in the catchment, and
the external input of nutrients and matter is considered to have been con-
stant over the last centuries (Rydin, 2000). Lake Erken has a long tradi-
tion of limnological research, with regular measurements occurring since
1940. The lake is used for drinking water in a small community in the
vicinity of the lake.
2.2 Lake Mlaren
This is the third largest lake in Sweden, located within one of the most
populated areas in the country. Stockholm is situated at the lake outflow
to the Baltic Sea. The lake may be considered as a lobate system of
smaller basins separated by narrow straits and morphological thresholds
(Kvarns, 2001). Two of these basins, Galten and Ekoln, at two upstream
ends of the larger lake (southwest and northeast, respectively) are in-
cluded in this thesis for climate simulations. Due to the population pres-
sure, Lake Mlaren is exposed to both sewage and industrial emissions
and was rather eutrophicated in the 1960s and 1970s with phosphorus
concentrations well over 100 gl
-1
in some parts of the lake. During the
17
1970s sewage water treatment was introduced and improved around the
lake and at present total phosphorus concentrations are around 50% lower
than during the 1960s (Wallin, 2000). The large catchment (22 603 km
2
)
is mostly dominated by forest land, but also includes large agricultural
areas.
2.3 Belarusian lakes
The three lakes Batorino, Miastro and Naroch are located within the same
catchment in the northern part of Belarus. Water flowing out from Lake
Batorino goes into Lake Miastro, and the outgoing water of Lake Miastro
enters into Lake Naroch. The catchment area (279 km
2
) is dominated by
forest, and the lakes are famous for good fishing and recreation in Bela-
rus. At the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 the supply of fertilizers
terminated and the lakes experienced a period of oligotrophication
(Hkanson et al., 2003b). Phosphorus concentrations were reduced by
2540% (A. Ostapenia, personal communication).
2.4 Lake Balaton
This large and shallow lake in the western part of Hungary is an impor-
tant recreational lake with both sport and commercial fisheries. It has a
history of rapid eutrophication during the 1970s but the phosphorus load
has been significantly reduced following a number of management meas-
ures, including sediment dredging and construction of the Kis-Balaton
reserve at the major inflow at the western shore (Istvnovics and Som-
lydy, 2001). The lake is rather elongated in its east-west direction and
may be divided into four consequent basins, with basin 1 upstream of
basin 2 and so on. The nutrient level decreases eastwards and the lake
outflow is found in basin 4 (Somlydy and van Straten, 1986).
2.5 Lake Kinneret
This lake, well-known from the Bible, is utilized for drinking water and
irrigation in a region where annual rainfall normally is not more than 400
mm. The main inflow is the Jordan River which drains an area of 1560
km
2
supplying around 70% of the water. There is a constant risk of salini-
zation as the water level (around 210 m below sea level) at times de-
18
creases several meters when rainfall is scarce. The lake is rather deep and
homothermy normally occurs between December and March (Hambright
et al., 1994). Phosphorus concentration may be relatively low in the
epilimnion, but at least one of the important phytoplankton species,
Peridinium gatunense, may obtain phosphorus from the sediments during
resting stages, thereby avoiding phosphorus limitation (Serruya, 1980).
Tourism is well developed around the lake, and the lake supports a com-
mercial fishery.
19
3 Lake models
3.1 The LEEDS-model
LEEDS (Lake Eutrophication, Effect, Dose, Sensitivity) is a dynamic
mass balance model for phosphorus in lakes. An outline of the model is
given in figure 4. The model gives monthly predictions of phosphorus in
9 different compartments in water and sediment. It contains compart-
ments for dissolved, colloidal and particulate phosphorus in surface water
and deep water, phosphorus in ET-sediments, A-sediments and phyto-
plankton. Only phosphorus dissolved in surface water may be taken up by
phytoplankton, and only particulate phosphorus is subject to gravitational
settling. Colloidal particles are too small to settle due to gravity, but
phosphorus bound to such particles are still not available to phytoplank-
ton (cf. Gustafsson and Gschwend, 1997). Resuspension of particulate
phosphorus may occur on shallow erosion and transport areas (ET-
sediments) where wind and wave activity influence the hydraulics at the
sediment-water interface. Importance and mechanisms of sediment resus-
pension are discussed, e.g., in Bloesch (1994). In deeper areas of sedi-
ment accumulation (A-sediments), phosphorus is only mobile through
diffusive processes (Hkanson and Jansson, 1983). The extension of ET-
and A-areas are calculated from the dynamic ratio (DR=Area/Mean
depth). Mixing between deep water and surface water depends on the
vertical temperature profile and is slow when the temperature difference
between surface water and deep water is larger than 4C.
The present model version is discussed in Paper I, which gives exten-
sive critical model testing and validation against empirical data from a
wide limnological domain. Figure 5 shows the results from the model
validation. It is evident that average phosphorus concentration is pre-
dicted well in the five tested lakes, but there are seasonal dynamics that
are not accurately predicted, such as the spring peak in the Belarusian
lakes. It should be noted that the observed values in all lakes emanate
from about 10 years of monthly measurements (single values) and that
the uncertainty bands are relatively wide.
20
Figure 4. An outline of the phosphorus fluxes handled by the LEEDS-model.
The flow labels are explained in Paper I.
The driving variables for the LEEDS-model are all easily accessible
climatic (e.g., annual precipitation) and morphometric variables (e.g.,
mean depth), plus the phosphorus concentration in tributary water. There
is no need for calibration for individual lakes, since default model con-
stants may be used.
3.2 The SPM-model
Suspended particulate matter (SPM) is a very important variable in
aquatic systems. It has a major impact on the light penetration and the
Secchi depth in the water, thereby regulating the potential for primary
production (e.g., Hkanson and Boulion, 2002). SPM also binds nutrients
and metals, thus determining the fate of many important substances by its
settling properties (e.g., Johansson et al., 2001). Furthermore, organic
SPM may be used as an energy source by microorganisms in the water
column (Jrgensen and Johnsen, 1989; Wetzel, 2001).
The SPM-model (Paper II) is included as a sub-model in LEEDS, but
21
Figure 5. LEEDS-model results compared to empirical data on total phosphorus
and chlorophyll-a concentrations. Empirical data represent monthly mean values
for several years. The widths of the confidence limits are calculated with charac-
teristic CV-values for TP (0.35) and Chl (0.25) as indicated. The CV-values
represent 75% confidence intervals (MV1SD) using a characteristic CV for
empirical lake data of 0.35 for TP and 0.25 for chlorophyll (data from Hkanson
and Boulion, 2002).
it may also be used as a separate model giving monthly predictions of
suspended particulate matter in two water compartments and one com-
partment with SPM available for resuspension in ET-sediments. The
model structure is presented in figure 6. The driving variables are basi-
cally the same as in the LEEDS-model, so the inclusion of this model as a
22
sub-model does not require any additional variables. The model generally
shows good agreement with observed data on SPM concentration in 5
different lakes. Paper II demonstrates that the most important uncertain-
ties in model predictions concern the tributary inflow of SPM and the
autochthonous production of SPM. Autochthonous production is pre-
dicted from total phosphorus and epilimnetic temperature. As the spring
bloom of phytoplankton in Lake Kinneret is dominated by the dinoflagel-
late Peridinium gatunense, which obtains its phosphorus from the sedi-
ments, it is only natural that the spring peak in SPM concentration ema-
nating from this bloom is not captured by the model, since this process is
not accounted for.
Figure 6. Schematic outline of the SPM-model.
3.3 Sedimentation
Sedimentation of SPM and particulate forms of pollutants is one of the
most important internal processes in mass balance calculations for lakes.
Gross sedimentation in a lake, e.g., measured as g DWm
2
d
-1
(DW=dry
weight), may be quantified in situ with sediment traps (Bloesch and
Burns, 1980; Hkanson, 1994), whereas properties of settling material is
difficult to study outside the laboratory (e.g., Burban et al., 1990). Set-
tling velocity of particles (md
-1
) may be estimated by dividing gross
sedimentation by the concentration of suspended particulate matter (g
DWm
-3
) above the traps. Since particles in a lake are carried by water
currents and influenced by turbulence the settling velocity measured in
the laboratory and settling velocity estimated from field observations
often differ orders of magnitude. Both may give valuable information
Mixing
Resuspension
Resuspension
Sedimentation
Sedimentation
Sedimentation
Mineralization
Primary production
Tributary inflow
Precipitation
Outflow
Wave
base
A-sediments
ET-sediments
Hypolimnion
Epilimnion
23
about the mechanisms determining the fate of particles and associated
substances in aquatic systems. Large particles generally settle faster than
smaller ones according to Stokes law, since the impact of drag resistance
(viscosity) from the medium (water) decreases relative to the influence of
gravity with increasing particle size (Hkanson and Jansson, 1983).
In Paper III, data from sediment traps and water samples were col-
lected from Lake Erken and Lake Balaton in order to study the variation
in settling velocity in these systems on short time scales (days to weeks)
and possible regulating factors. It was found that the within site variabil-
ity of settling velocity was substantial. The differences between 25th and
75th percentiles of estimated settling velocities were two- or three-fold.
Regressions between settling velocity and possible regulating factors
revealed that settling velocity tends to increase with SPM concentration
in the water, which may be explained by particle flocculation at high
SPM concentration, increasing the particle size and thereby the settling
velocity. It was also implied that different types of material, e.g. ex-
pressed by the organic content, had different settling properties. Based on
the findings in Paper III, the following dimensionless moderator for set-
tling velocity has been implemented in the LEEDS-model and in the
SPM-model:
Y
SPM
= 1 + 0.45(C
SPM
/2 1) (2)
where C
SPM
is the concentration of SPM in gm
-3
. This dimensionless
moderator is multiplied with the default settling velocity in the models to
get the actual settling velocity, resulting in an increased rate of sedimen-
tation at higher concentrations of SPM.
3.4 Diffusion
Molecular diffusion is the continuous redistribution of molecules result-
ing from random movements, acting to level out concentration gradients.
Although a slow process, molecular diffusion is the dominant transport
process for many substances in calm waters, such as in deep water below
the wave base in lakes. It is the most important process moving phosphate
from sediment pore water to the overlying water column (Kamp-Nielsen,
1974; Hesslein, 1980). Phosphorus release from accumulation sediments
also includes a number of chemical reactions and is affected by physical
conditions and biological processes (e.g., Mortimer, 1941, 1942; Bostrm
et al., 1982; Hkanson and Jansson, 1983). In this work, diffusion refers
24
to release of molecular phosphate from accumulation sediments, as op-
posed to phosphorus release from erosion- and transport sediments driven
by resuspension.
It was concluded in Paper I that the LEEDS-model is sensitive to the
rate of diffusion, and diffusive phosphorus release from the sediments is
often one of the major internal phosphorus fluxes in lakes (Jensen and
Andersen, 1992; Lijklema, 1994; Rydin and Brunberg, 1998). Paper IV is
an attempt to formulate empirical findings in Lake Erken as a model de-
scribing the phosphorus dynamics of profundal sediments, hoping to im-
prove the understanding and ability to model processes of burial and dif-
fusion in lake models.
Figure 7. Illustration of the sediment phosphorus model. IP = inert phosphorus;
OP = organic phosphorus; DP = phosphorus dissolved in pore water; FeP =
phosphorus sorbed to iron. Phosphorus fluxes include sedimentation (sed), burial
(bur), mineralization (min), molecular diffusion (diff) and chemical equilibrium
between dissolved and iron bound phosphorus (eq).
An outline of the model presented in Paper IV is given in figure 7. It
divides phosphorus into four different operational fractions. These frac-
tions are phosphate dissolved in pore water, organically bound phospho-
rus, phosphorus sorbed to iron and an inert fraction. A chemical equilib-
rium depending on the redox potential is assumed between the dissolved
phosphate and the phosphorus sorbed to iron. Sediment redox potential is
assumed to be proportional to hypolimnetic oxygen concentration. The
modeled vertical profiles of the four phosphorus fractions in the sediment
are similar to the observed profiles. In the model most of the phosphorus
release occurs in August, and about 50% of the settling phosphorus is
eventually buried.
IP
IP OP
OP
DP
DP
FeP
FeP
sed sed sed
bur bur bur bur
bur bur bur bur
diff
diff
diff
min
min
eq
eq
dz
WATER
SEDIMENT
25
4 Model application: Climatic change
In Paper V the LEEDS-model is run with two climate scenarios (denoted
A2 and B2; IPCC, 2000) for the years 20712100 and run for Lake Erken
and two basins of Lake Mlaren Galten and Ekoln. The climate scenar-
ios are given by the IPCC and are based on different assumptions and
predictions about the anthropogenic emissions of CO
2
the coming one
hundred years. Only temperature changes are considered here, since pre-
dictions about water discharge and external nutrient load are yet very
uncertain. Temperature is included in the LEEDS-model to calculate rates
of mineralization, mixing and diffusion.
The scenarios predict mean annual epilimnetic temperature to increase
by 1.21.9 C, and the most significant effect predicted by the model is an
increased rate of diffusion resulting in increased total phosphorus concen-
tration in the lakes. When hypolimnetic temperature increases, decompo-
sition of organic material is intensified (e.g., Trnblom and Pettersson,
1998) resulting in increased oxygen consumption, which in turn reduces
the capacity of the sediments to hold phosphorus (see, e.g., Paper IV).
Furthermore, oxygen supply from the atmosphere to the profundal sedi-
ments is low when the lake is stratified, and stratification is stronger in
the climate scenarios. Increased phosphorus concentration in the water
column resulting from higher diffusion rates may result in higher primary
production which, in turn, results in increased sedimentation and hence
higher oxygen consumption in the hypolimnion. All these processes are
captured in LEEDS (see figure 4) and they all result in lake eutrophica-
tion.
In figure 8 the phosphorus concentration in the three study areas are
shown as predicted by the model using the two climate scenarios (A2 and
B2) and control simulations similar to present conditions (CTRL). It is
notable that phosphorus concentration increases much more in Lake
Erken than in the two basins of Lake Mlaren, and this is explained by
the much longer water retention time (7 years) in Lake Erken compared
to Ekoln (0.5 years) and Galten (0.07 years). Internal processes, such as
those described above, are more significant when the water retention time
is long, and this is reflected in the response to climate change. The results
26
Figure 8. Mean, maximum and minimum values of predicted total phosphorus
(TP) and epilimnetic dissolved phosphorus (EDP) concentrations (g/l) for the
three scenarios ( = CTRL; = A2; = B2 ).
Ekoln; EDP
j f m a m j j a s o n d
0
20
40
60
80
Ekoln; TP
j f m a m j j a s o n d
0
20
40
60
80
Galten; TP
j f m a m j j a s o n d
0
20
40
60
80
Galten; EDP
j f m a m j j a s o n d
0
20
40
60
80
Lake Erken; EDP
j f m a m j j a s o n d
0
20
40
60
80
Lake Erken; TP
j f m a m j j a s o n d
0
20
40
60
80
27
are supported by (unpublished) empirical observations in the three areas
during the warm years at the end of the 1990s and the beginning of the
2000s.
28
5 Main findings
The assumptions and structure of a phosphorus model for lakes
are critically tested and the domain of the model is given. The
values predicted by the model show good agreement against
empirical data from the five tested lakes.
A new version of this model is presented, including two new
compartments for colloidal phosphorus, a sub-model for sus-
pended particulate matter (SPM) and new algorithms for water
content and organic content of accumulation sediments. New al-
gorithms for lake outflow, mixing and diffusion are imple-
mented.
A dynamic model for SPM is validated and shown to provide
satisfactory predictions of SPM concentration in the tested
lakes. It was also found that uncertainties in allochthonous and
autochthonous production of SPM are generally much more im-
portant for predictions of SPM concentration than uncertainties
in internal processes such as sedimentation and resuspension.
The within-site variability of settling velocity of SPM was
found to be large, implying that, if possible, this variability
should be taken into account when predictions of particle sedi-
mentation are made. A dimensionless moderator for the impact
of SPM concentration on settling velocity is suggested.
A mechanistic model for phosphorus dynamics in accumulation
area sediments is defined and shown to provide accurate predic-
tions of four different phosphorus forms at different sediment
depths in Lake Erken sediments.
Simulations with a lake model indicate that temperate lakes with
long water retention time appear to be more sensitive to climate
warming than lakes with short water retention time with respect
to phosphorus concentration and eutrophication effects.
29
6 Conclusions
All models are incomplete abstractions of more or less well-defined sys-
tems, confined by their driving variables, mathematical formulations and
empirical data. The models in this work are no exceptions. In this work,
the LEEDS-model is defined and critically tested with respect to sensitiv-
ity, uncertainty and accuracy in model predictions for a number of lakes.
The effort to improve the model behavior will and should never be fin-
ished, but may continue as long as more knowledge and more data can be
obtained. However, with the existing foundation, it is possible to use the
model for many scientific and practical purposes, as long as assumptions
and limitations are recognized. Hopefully, this thesis has contributed to
our knowledge of how lakes function and how this is expressed in the
modeling approach used herein.
The LEEDS-model and the sub-model for SPM are shown to give rea-
sonable predictions of their target variables at a monthly time-scale in the
tested lakes (Paper I, II). Some special features of the lakes, such as the
Peridinium bloom in Lake Kinneret, are not and should not be seen in the
model validations, since the processes are not included in the model for-
mulations. Some variability is not explained by the model for unknown
reasons, but the uncertainty in the empirical data must also be kept in
mind.
The dimensionless moderator for SPM concentration proposed in Pa-
per III is now included in the SPM- and LEEDS-models to provide more
accurate estimations of particle settling velocity. Phosphorus diffusion
from accumulation sediments appears to be one of the most important
model uncertainties, and a sediment model is developed in Paper IV as an
effort to gain more quantitative knowledge about this important process.
Conclusions from this paper may later be used to improve the diffusion
algorithm in lake models. Ongoing climate change causing increased
diffusion rates in many lakes may also be studied within this framework.
Model runs simulating possible future climate changes indicate that
lakes with long water retention times, such as Lake Erken, may face in-
creased phosphorus concentrations and hence also eutrophication effects
in the future. It is found in Paper V that the phosphorus concentration
30
may increase by more than 50% related to the assumed climatic changes
alone, but it is also shown that there are large differences between differ-
ent climate scenarios. This is important information concerning conflicts
about climate change the less warming of the climate, the less eutrophi-
cation of temperate lakes. It should also be taken into account when man-
agement planning is done for lakes with long water retention times.
The study of lake phosphorus dynamics and climate change shows the
value of predictive models. If the models are well structured and used in
the right way they may give valuable information about the systems
response to perturbations and possible remedial measures. It is also essen-
tial to make the most of experience from past and contemporary variation
in the systems to improve the models.
31
7 Acknowledgements
I would like to thank the following people for making my time as a PhD
student a pleasant and rewarding experience:
- My supervisor Prof. Lars Hkanson for giving me the opportunity to
work with an interesting topic, for sharing his joy for ecological modeling
and for encouragement and support.
- My senior colleague Emil Rydin, with whom I spent many hours in the
car and in the boat into, within and out from Lake Erken. Thanks for
many interesting and enlightening discussions and for nice company.
- My senior colleague Toddy Blenckner, for nice cooperation and friend-
ship. I learned a lot from working with you!
- Kurt Pettersson for being around and organizing things. I appreciated
the field work and the atmosphere at Lake Erken, and you have a great
part in that!
- Hampus Markensten, Irina Persson, Per Hyenstrand, Niklas Strmbeck
and Andrs Tlos at the Department of Limnology for cooperation at
several occasions.
- Helena Enderskog, Bjrn Mattsson, Per Odelstrm and Ulf Lindqvist at
Erkenlab for technical assistance.
- The research was partly financed by the EU-project Phytoplankton on-
line (RTD Project EVK1-CT1999-00037). Thanks to all the partners in
this project, especially Vera Istvnovics, Yosef Yacobi, Werner Eckert,
Ute Bodemer and Volkmar Gerhardt for discussions and nice socializing.
- Tomas Nord If you were only half as helpful you would still have
many friends. Not to mention all good music you brought
- Everyone at LUVA for providing a nice working environment. Espe-
cially I would like to thank Aziz, Angelica, Andreas G, Andreas B, Sara-
Sofia, Karin, Hkan, Niclas, Fredrik, Klas, Johan, Elin, Magnus, Fritjof,
Hanna, Tony, Lotta, Sofia and Jenny for many memorable moments.
- Magnus Karlsson for informing me about the position at the university
and for letting me practice science in different situations.
- Family and friends for support in many ways. Especially my parents
Jan and Kerstin and my brother Fredrik for caring about me. I love you!
32
8 Summary in Swedish
I denna avhandling presenteras prediktiva modeller fr ngra viktiga pa-
rametrar fr eutrofiering i sjar. Grunden r en dynamisk fosformodell
baserad p ordinra differentialekvationer. Genom att berkna fosforfl-
den in och ut ur en sj samt de mest betydelsefulla interna fldena kan
koncentrationer av olika fosforformer uppskattas.
Den dynamiska modelleringsansatsen testas kritiskt och en ny modell-
version presenteras. Tv berkningsboxar fr kolloidalt fosfor, en sub-
modell fr suspenderat partikulrt material (SPM) och algoritmer fr
vattenutflde, omblandning, diffusion, vattenhalt och organisk halt i ac-
kumulationssediment introduceras. Vrden frn den nya modellversionen
ger god verensstmmelse med empiriska data i fem testade sjar.
Submodellen fr SPM anvnder i stort sett samma drivvariabler som
fosformodellen, s det krvs inga ytterligare variabler fr att anvnda
denna submodell. SPM-modellen kan ven anvndas separat fr mnads-
prediktioner av SPM i vatten och sediment. ven denna modell ger god
verensstmmelse med empiriska data.
Empiriska data frn sjarna Erken (Sverige) och Balatonsjn (Ungern)
anvnds fr att underska variation i fallhastighet fr SPM. Det visade
sig att variationen var betydande och en dimensionsls moderator fr
SPM-koncentration fresls fr att ta hnsyn till denna variation. Utifrn
empiriska data frn djupsediment i Erken tas en ny dynamisk modell fr
sedimentation, begravning och diffusion i sediment fram. Denna modell
ger tillfredsstllande mnadsprediktioner av fyra fosforformer p olika
sedimentdjup.
Simuleringar med den dynamiska fosformodellen fr sjar under tv
olika klimatscenarier indikerar att sjar kan komma att pverkas mycket
olika av klimatfrndringar beroende p fysisk karaktr. Erken, som har
en vattenomsttningstid p cirka sju r, verkar vara betydligt knsligare
n tv Mlarbassnger med avsevrt kortare vattenomsttningstid. Detta
skulle kunna innebra allvarliga eutrofieringsproblem i framtiden i eutro-
fa sjar med lng vattenomsttningstid. Detta br tas i beaktande i vat-
tenplaneringen om vattenkvaliteten i dessa sjar skall bibehllas.
33
Studien av fosfordynamik och klimatfrndringar visar vrdet av pre-
diktiva modeller. Om modellerna r vlstrukturerade och vltestade kan
de ge vrdefull information om hur systemen pverkas av strningar och
mjliga tgrder. Frhoppningsvis har denna avhandling bidragit till kun-
skap om hur sjar fungerar och hur detta uttrycks i de modelleringsansat-
ser som anvnts i detta arbete.
34
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Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis
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