Best Pharma Stocks PDF

7.
0
10.0
12.0 12.0 12.3
13.0 13.0
14.0
17.0
25.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0 16.2%
9.3%
11.0%
11.9%
12.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Q4FY14E
Revenue(inRsMn) yoy
IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Pharma Sector
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
Q4FY14E Results Preview
Daljeet S. Kohli
Head of Research
Mobile: +91 77383 93371, 99205 94087
Tel: +91 22 66188826
daljeet.kohli@indianivesh.in
Bhagwan Singh Chaudhary
Research Analyst
Mobile: +91 77383 93427
Tel: +91 22 66188835
bhagwan.chaudhary@indianivesh.in
April 17, 2014
Coverage Pharma Universe to maintain the growth momentum,
we expect revenue growth of 20.7% y-o-y in Q4FY14E:
Robust performance of Indian Pharma companies is likely to continue in the current
quarter also. Companies under INSPL Pharma Coverage Universe are expected to
grow at healthy rate of 20.7% y-o-y in Q4FY14E. Revenue growth in domestic market
is likely to revive on sequential basis from 11.9% in the previous quarter to 12.7% in
the current quarter. US market is expected to maintain robust growth & likely to
grow 39.5% y-o-y in Q4FY14E. Exports to Brazil are likely to revive during the quarter
mainly anticipating normalization in regulatory issues. JPY depreciation against INR
(on y-o-y basis) would represent muted growth for the companies like Lupin. We
expect RoW market to report healthy growth. Among the pack, Shilpa Medicare is
expected to report revenue growth of 67% y-o-y, followed by Aurobindo (+40%)
Sun Pharma (+31%). Among the universe, DRL is likely to report optically lower
growth of only 8% y-o- y mainly due to higher base in the same quarter previous
year.
EBITDA margins likely to expand ~238 bps y-o-y (lower ~110 bps sequentially) :
Due to INR depreciation, batter pricing scenario for raw material & favorable
operating leverage, EBITDA margins of INSPL Pharma universe are expected to
expand ~238 bps y-o-y to 25.6% level in Q4FY14E. On sequential basis EBITDA
margins may contract ~110 bps. We expect, cumulative EBITDA to grow 33.1%
y-o-y (decline 3.5% sequentially) in Q4FY14E. Adj Net Profit (adj for exceptional
items & forex losses) is expected to grow 31.8% y-o-y (decline 4.1% q-o-q).
Domestic market growth is likely to revive sequentially. On account of normalization
in implementation of new pricing policy, we expect INSPL Pharma Universes
domestic growth to improve sequentially to 12.7% y-o-y in Q4FY14E compared to
11.9% in Q3FY14. In our coverage universe, Biocon, Sun & Ipca are likely to be top
performer in domestic market.
INSPL Pharma Universes domestic growth: Company wise domestic revenue growth (in %) in
Q4FY14E:
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Source: IndiaNivesh Research
Company Name Rs TP Reco
Ajanta Pharma 1,216 BUY
Aurobindo Pharma UR UR
Alembic Pharma 314 BUY
Biocon 427 HOLD
Cadila 1,228 BUY
Cipla 379 HOLD
Divis Lab 1,507 BUY
Dr Reddy 3,006 BUY
Glenmark 636 BUY
Jubilant Life Science 122 HOLD
Lupin 1,128 BUY
Sun Pharma 638 HOLD
Ipca Lab 880 HOLD
Torrent Pharma 534 HOLD
JB Chemical 149 BUY
Shilpa Medicare 544 BUY
IndiaNivesh Research Pharma Sector April 17, 2014 | 2
Q4FY14E Results Preview (contd...)

17.1
27.9
32.9
44.6
59.7
84.8
91.4
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
48.1%
31.6%
56.7%
63.3%
39.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Q4FY14E
Revenue (in Rs Mn) y-o-y
US sales likely to remain robust (expect ~39.5% y-o-y growth from major
players):
On the US front, Aurobindo, Torrent & Cadila Healthcare are likely to be top
performers (between 60-91% y-o-y revenue growth) followed by DRL (~45% y-o-y),
Sun Pharma (~33% y-o-y) & Glenmark (18% y-o-y). Due to higher base of Tricor
launch in the same quarter previous year Lupin is expected to grow only ~17%
y-o-y. Overall INSPL Pharma Coverage universe is likely to report ~39.5% y-o-y
revenue growth in Q4FY14E.
US revenue is likely to grow 39.5% y-o-y in Q4FY14E for
the major players:
Source: Company Filings; IndiaNivesh Research
Company wise US revenue growth (in %) in Q4FY14E:
23 ANDAs received by INSPL Pharma Coverage universe in Q4FY14:
INSPL Pharma Coverage universe received 23 ANDAs approvals during the quarter,
out of total 98 ANDAs approved by USFDA. Cadila Health Care led the pack by
receiving 7 ANDAs approval. Followed by Lupin (4 approvals) Aurobindo & DRL (3
approvals each), Torrent & Sun Pharma (2 approvals each), Alembic & Ipca (1
approvals each).
Valuations & Recommendation:
Note: CMP as on 17th April 2014
Company Name Rs CMP Rs TP Reco FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Ajanta Pharma 982 1,216 BUY 9,308 12,218 15,123 2,301 3,507 4,386 1,121 2,399 2,870 31.8 42.8 50.7 22.9 19.4
Aurobindo Pharma 553 UR UR 58,553 77,460 116,340 9,835 15,190 15,980 2,939 7,290 8,066 10.1 25.1 27.7 22.0 19.9
Alembic Pharma 270 314 BUY 15,203 18,331 21,668 2,490 3,547 4,602 1,653 2,334 3,064 8.8 12.4 16.3 21.8 16.6
Biocon 455 427 HOLD 24,853 28,459 33,384 5,701 6,174 7,272 5,089 3,590 3,998 25.8 17.9 20.0 25.4 22.7
Cadila 978 1,228 BUY 61,552 73,414 86,713 11,375 12,022 15,896 6,535 7,014 9,815 31.9 34.3 47.9 28.5 20.4
Cipla 397 379 HOLD 82,793 100,989 116,000 22,148 21,753 24,757 15,449 12,292 14,500 19.2 15.3 18.1 26.0 22.0
Divis Lab 1,325 1,507 BUY 21,399 25,758 31,786 8,165 10,973 13,570 6,020 8,157 10,001 45.4 61.4 75.3 21.6 17.6
Dr Reddy 2,561 3,006 BUY 116,266 133,420 154,922 25,465 35,748 40,196 16,776 21,555 24,384 98.4 126.5 143.2 20.2 17.9
Glenmark 585 636 BUY 50,123 59,071 69,817 10,100 12,734 15,546 6,147 7,345 9,517 22.7 27.2 35.3 21.5 16.6
Jubilant Life Science 170 122 HOLD 51,610 57,641 65,895 10,637 9,411 10,803 1,527 1,709 2,724 9.6 (5.7) 17.1 (29.8) 9.9
Lupin 957 1,128 BUY 96,413 108,283 131,829 23,257 23,539 29,966 13,142 16,629 21,226 29.3 37.2 47.4 25.7 20.2
Sun Pharma 623 638 HOLD 112,999 154,762 182,362 49,802 66,534 78,885 29,831 48,783 58,032 14.4 23.1 26.5 27.0 23.5
Ipca Lab 795 880 HOLD 28,131 31,884 37,296 6,265 7,211 8,799 3,236 5,099 6,172 25.6 39.4 48.9 20.2 16.3
Torrent Pharma 557 534 HOLD 30,535 35,993 46,703 7,113 7,699 9,161 4,328 5,270 5,535 25.6 32.5 35.1 17.1 15.9
JB Chemical 139 149 BUY 8,661 9,961 11,282 1,335 1,523 1,788 794 1,350 1,555 9.4 15.9 18.4 8.7 7.5
Shilpa Medicare 428 544 BUY 3,713 5,689 7,441 694 1,209 1,571 473 811 1,018 12.9 22.1 27.7 19.4 15.5
EBITDA PAT EPS (Rs) P/E (x) Sales
Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd: CMP = Rs 270, Reco= BUY,
TP= 314.
Rs Mn Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y-o-Y Ch. Q-o-Q Ch.
Sales 4,675 3,766 4,859 24.1% -3.8%
EBITDA 919 656 973 40.1% -5.6%
Adj Net Profit 586 437 616 34.3% -4.9%
Forex (loss) Gain - - -
Reported Net Profit 586 437 616 34.3% -4.9%
Adj EPS (Rs.) 3.11 2.32 3.27 34.3% -4.9%
bps bps
EBITDA margins 19.7% 17.4% 20.0% 224 (37)
PAT Margins 12.5% 11.6% 12.7% 94 (14)
On the back of healthy ramp up in US market, we see healthy growth of above 70%
y-o-y growth from international generics business & ~12% y-o-y growth in domestic
market. Owing to managements rationalization decision on high margin business,
we expect API business to remain almost flat during the quarter. Hence overall
revenue growth is likely to be 24.1% y-o-y in Q4FY14E.
Due to change in product mix linked with higher contribution from US business &
domestic business, companys EBITDA margins are likely to expand ~224 bps y-o-y
to 19.7% level. We expect companys net profit to increase 34.3% y-o- y to Rs 586
mn in Q4FY14E.
Key things to watch out: Ramp up in Generics business post expanded facility,
commentary on the revenue growth in domestic market.
Aurobindo Pharma: CMP= Rs 553, Reco=UR, TP= UR.
Aurobindo Pharma (Rs
Mn)
Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y % Q.o.Q %
Sales 21,780 15,527 21,355 40.3% 2.0%
EBITDA 6,187 2,401 6,438 157.7% -3.9%
Net Profit 4,156 1,088 4,140 282.1% 0.4%
Forex (loss) Gain/other 250 (13) 21 -2023.1% NA
Net Profit Reported 4,406 1,075 4,161 310.0% 5.9%
Adj EPS (Rs.) 14.28 3.74 14.23 282.1% 0.4%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 28.4% 15.5% 30.1% 1,295 (174)
Net Margins 19.1% 7.0% 19.4% 1,208 (0)
On the back of key launches in US market in the last 3-4 quarters, including
injectables, re-launch of cephalosporins from unit VI (after resolution of import
alert) & launch of Cymbalta in the previous quarter, we expect Aurobindos US
formulation business to grow 73% y-o-y to $155 mn in Q4FY14.
Europe & ROW markets are expected to grow 13% y-o-y to $52 mn, while API
formulation would remain muted and may end up at almost flat to $120 mn. We
expect overall revenue to grow ~40% y-o-y to Rs 21.78 bn.
We expect ~1300 bps y-o-y expansion in EBITDA margins to 28.4% in Q4FY14E mainly
benefiting from INR depreciation, change in product mix and favorable operating
leverage.
Key thing to watch out: Performance in US market, sustainability in EBITDA margins
& managements commentary on recently acquired business of Actavis in Europe.
Ajanta Pharma Ltd: CMP= Rs 982, Reco=BUY, TP= Rs 1,216
(Rs. In Mn.) SA Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y-o-Y Ch. Q-o-Q Ch.
SALES 3,040 2,492 2,926
22.0% 3.9%
EBITDA 924 688 910
34.2% 1.6%
Adj Net Profit 637 277 644
129.8% -1.1%
Forex (loss) Gain - (6) (20)
Reported Net profit 637 271 624
135.2% 2.1%
EPS 18.0 7.8 18.2
129.8% -1.1%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 30.4% 27.6% 31.1% 277 (69)
Net Margins 21.0% 11.1% 22.0% 983 (106)
Robust performance of Ajanta is likely to continue in the current quarter also. we
expect, overall healthy revenue growth of ~22% y-o-y & EBITDA margins to stand at
~30.4% level partially benefiting from INR depreciations.
Key things to watch out: Companys progress on ANDA filings in USA & update on
new facility in Gujrat would be key moniterables.
Biocon Ltd: CMP = Rs 455, Reco= HOLD, TP = Rs 427
(in Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y Q.o.Q
Out-licensing income
40
20 40
Core sales
7,136 6,282 6,971
13.6% 2.4%
NET SALES 7,176 6,302 7,011 13.9% 2.3%
EBITDA 1,670 1,051 1,696 58.9% -1.5%
Adj Net Profit 1,022 467 1,050 118.8% -2.7%
EPS (Rs.) 5.11 2.34 5.25 118.8% -2.7%
bps bps
Adj EBITDA Margins 22.8% 16.4% 23.8% 643 (91)
Net Margins 13.8% 7.1% 14.5% 664 (73)
We expect Biocon to grow ~14% y-o-y in Q4FY14E on the back of 25% growth from
domestic formulation business, partially benefiting from Etolizumab launch in the
previous quarter. 13.5% y-o-y from Syngene & ~11% from Pharma business. We
expect, companys adj EBITDA Margins to (adjusting for out-licensing income)
increase ~643 bps y-o-y to 22.8% level mainly due to decline in material cost, lower
R&D expenses & other charges. Additionally, same quarter in the previous year was
exceptionally poor quarter on margins front, hence performance on yearly basis
may look optically very good. Accordingly net profit is likely to grow ~118% y-o-y to
Rs 1022 mn.
Key things to watch out: R&D expenses, performance of CRAMS business &
management commentary on various products in pipeline.
Cipla Ltd: CMP= Rs 397, Reco=HOLD , TP Rs 379
Cipla (Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y Q.o.Q
Sales 23,911 19,062 25,526 25.44% -6.33%
EBITDA 3,933 4,095 4,673 -3.96% -15.84%
Adj Net Profit 2,110 2,496 2,443 -15.45% -13.64%
Forex (loss) Gain/Exceptional 400 180 400
Rep Net Profit 2,510 2,676 2,843 -6.19% -11.72%
EPS (Rs.) 2.80 3.11 3.20 -9.76% -12.22%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 16.4% 21.5% 18.3% (503) (186)
Net Margins 8.8% 13.1% 9.6% (427) (75)
(Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y Q.o.Q
Sales 18,992 15,658 18,157 21.3% 4.6%
EBITDA 3,457 3,054 2,955 13.2% 17.0%
Adj Net Profit 2,085 1,748 1,793 19.3% 16.3%
Forex (loss) Gain 5 877 66
Rep Net Profit 2,090 2,625 1,860 -20.4% 12.4%
EPS (Rs.) 10.18 13.40 8.76 -24.0% 16.3%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 18.2% 19.5% 16.3% (130) 193
Net Margins 11.0% 11.2% 9.9% (18) 110
We expect Ciplas total revenue to grow 25% y-o-y to Rs 23.91 bn in Q4FY14E, mainly
on the back of Cipla Medpro acquisition from July 2013 onwards & ~13% growth in
domestic business.
EBITDA margins are expected to decline on yearly basis by ~500 bps to 16.4% mainly
due to increase in employee cost & other expenses linked with front end expansion
of company & relatively higher material cost in fourth quarter. Net profit is likely to
decline ~15.5% y-o-y to Rs 2.11 bn in Q4FY14E.
Key thing to watch out: Integration of Cipla Medpro SA business & stabilization in
employee cost & other expenses.
Cadila Healthcare: CMP = Rs 978, Reco = BUY, TP = Rs 1,228
After the stellar performance in US market in the previous quarter, we expect Cadilas
US performance to remain on the track & likely to report above $100 mn revenue
in the current quarter. We expect companys domestic business to revive to growth
slowly & steadily. Growth in emerging markets & Latin markets would be deciding
factor for cumulative growth of the company.
On the margins fronts, companys performance is likely to remain muted on yearly
basis mainly due new pricing policy implementation, however improvement on
sequential basis is likely.
Adjusting to tax reversal of Rs 586 mn in the same quarter previous year net profit
of Cadila is likely to increase 19.3% y-o-y to Rs 2,085 mn.
Key things to watch out: Revenue growth across the markets & EBITDA margins.
Divis Lab (SA): CMP= Rs 1,325, Reco=BUY, TP= Rs 1,507
Divis Lab (SA Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A y-o-y q-o-q
Sales 7,990 6,496 6,874 23.0% 16.2%
EBITDA 3,454 2,605 2,909 32.6% 18.7%
Adj Net Profit 2,477 1,916 2,240 29.3% 10.6%
Forex (loss) gian 200 (98) (50) -500.0%
Rep Net profit 2,677 1,818 2,190 47.2% 22.2%
Adj EPS (Rs.) 18.66 14.45 16.88 29.1% 10.6%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 43.2% 40.1% 42.3% 313 90
Net Margins 31.0% 29.5% 32.6% 151 (159)
Partially benefiting from lower base, we expect Divis Labs revenue to grow 23%
y-o-y to Rs 7.99 bn in Q4FY14E. Anticipating healthy product mix & operating
leverage, we expect EBITDA margins to increase ~310 bps y-o-y to 43.2% level.
Companys net profit is expected to grow ~29% y-o-y to Rs 2.47 bn.
Key things to watch out: Sustainability in EBITDA margins & USFDA inspection for
Vizag facility would be key thing to watch out for.
Dr Reddys Lab: CMP= Rs 2,561, Reco = BUY, TP= Rs 3,006
DRLs overall revenue is expected to grow 7.7% y-o-y in Q4FY13E on account of
~29% y-o-y growth from North America (in USD term) despite 180 days exclusivity
of Propecia in the same quarter previous year, ~18% from Russia & CIS region, ~10%
from domestic market. However, European market and PSAI business may remain
laggard in the pack. During the quarter, company has launched Imitrex stat injection
& Caduet in US market. Owing to complex launches in the previous quarters like
Vidaza & Dacogen, Cymbalta and market gain in complex molecules, including
Propecia, Toprol XL, Zometa, Isotretinoin, Arixtra & Tacrolimus, company is expected
to report ~$275 mn revenue from North America business in Q4FY14E.
There may be ~566 bps expansion in EBIT margins on yearly basis mainly linked
with favorable product mix & lower contribution from PSAI business linked with
rationalization of high margin products.
Key things to watch out: Ramp up in key launches in US market including Cymbalta,
Toprol XL, LamotrigeneXR, Isotretinoin, Fondaparinux & Vidaza etc, revenue growth
across the markets & operating margins.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd: CMP= Rs 585 Reco= BUY, TP=
Rs 636.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Ltd (Rs Mn)
Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y Q.o.Q
Core sales 16,127 13,355 16,012 20.8% 0.7%
Out-licensing income 250 - -
Total sales 16,377 13,355 16,012 22.6% 2.3%
EBITDA 3,509 2,798 3,650 25.4% -3.8%
Adj Net Profit 2,017 1,918 2,162 5.2% -6.7%
Forex (loss) gain/Exceptional 250 (250) -
Rep Net Profit 2,267 1,668 2,162 35.9% 4.9%
Adj EPS (Rs.) 7.4 7.1 8.0 5.4% -6.7%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 21.8% 20.9% 22.8% 81 (103)
Net Margins 12.3% 14.4% 13.5% (204) (119)
We expect Glenmarks core revenue to grow ~21% y-o- y to Rs 16.13 bn in Q4FY14E.
Benefiting from the market gains in Malarone, Cutivate, Adara, Bactroban & recent
launches of Locoid Lipocream in December-2013, we expect US revenue to grow
~14% y-o-y to $90 mn. Domestic market is likely to maintain the growth momentum
and should grow at 13% y-o-y. We expect companys core business PAT (Excluding
$5 mn milestone payment from Forest Lab) to grow only 5.2% y-o-y to Rs 2,017 mn
in Q4FY14E.
Key things to watch out: Revenue performance across the markets, EBITDA margins,
any data point on R&D front.
in Rs Mn Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y-o-Y Q-o-Q
SALES 35,956 33,399 35,338 7.7% 1.7%
Operating Profit (EBIT) 8,276 5,796 7,969 42.8% 3.8%
Adj Net Profit 6,602 4,082 5,687 61.8% 16.1%
Forex (loss) gain/ other 235 1,627 497 -85.6% -52.8%
Rep Net Profit 6,837 5,710 6,185 19.7% 10.5%
EPS (Rs.) 38.87 24.03 33.48 61.7% 16.1%
bps bps
EBIT Margins 23.0% 17.4% 22.6% 566 46
Net Margins 18.4% 12.2% 16.1% 614 227
Ipca Labs (SA): CMP= Rs 795, Reco = HOLD, TP= Rs 880
IPCA Lab. (Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y Q.o.Q
Sales 7,681 6,586 8,152 16.62% -5.77%
EBITDA 1,872 1,423 2,173 31.54% -13.86%
Adj Net Profit 1,214 677 1,415 79.48% -14.21%
Forex (loss) gain - 78 (24)
Rep Net profit 1,214 754 1,391 60.99% -12.71%
Adj EPS (Rs) 9.62 5.36 11.22 79.40% -14.21%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 24.4% 21.6% 26.7% 277 (229)
Net Margins 15.8% 10.3% 17.4% 554 (155)
Ipca labs is expected to report revenue growth of ~17% y-o-y on the back of ~14%
y-o-y growth in domestic formulations &~21%y-o-y growth from generic exports
linked with supply ramp up for Indore SEZ, ~20% growth in branded business &
~35% growth in Institution business.
On account of rationalization in raw material prices, Gross margins are likely to
improve. We expect EBITDA margins to expand ~277 bps on yearly basis to 24.4%
level partially linked with favorable currency movement.
Key things to watch out: Management commentary on Institutional business &
ramp up in generics business post Indore SEZ approval.
JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SA): CMP= Rs 139, Reco =
BUY, TP= Rs 149
In Rs Mn (SA) Q4FY14E Q4FY13 A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y % Q.o.Q %
Sales 2,275 1,977 2,342 15.1% -2.9%
EBITDA 370 190 411 94.8% -9.9%
Adj Net Profit 302 189 523 59.9% -42.3%
Forex (loss) gain/other - 10 65
Rep Net Profit 302 198 (65) 52.8% -567.9%
Adj EPS 3.6 2.2 6.2 59.9% -42.3%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 16.3% 9.6% 17.5% 666 (126)
Net Margins 13.3% 9.5% 22.3% 372 (908)
We expect companys topline to grow ~15% y-o-y to Rs 2.28 bn in Q4FY14E on
account of healthy growth in exports business & pricing gain in domestic business.
Due to favorable product mix & improving operating leverage, we expect EBITDA
margins to improve ~666 bps y-o-y (decline 126 bps q-o-q) to 16.3% level. Hence,
EBITDA should grow ~95% y-o-y to Rs 370 mn. Net profit is likely to grow ~60%
y-o-y to Rs 302 mn. Negative surprise during the quarter may be from Rusian &
Ukraine due to economic turmoil.
Key thing to watch out: Expansion in EBITDA margins & revenue growth.
Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd: CMP= Rs 170, Reco=HOLD, TP= Rs 122.
Jubilant Lifescience (Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13 A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y % Q.o.Q %
Sales 15,295 13,883 14,277 10.17% 7.13%
EBITDA 2,563 2,330 2,345 9.99% 9.30%
Adj Net Profit 760 662 1,329 14.69% -42.84%
Forex (loss) gain 250 (972) 105 137.87%
Rep Net Profit 1,010 (310) 1,434 -426.06% -29.59%
Adj EPS 4.8 4.2 8.3 14.69% -42.84%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 16.8% 16.8% 16.4% (3) 33
Net Margins 5.0% 4.8% 9.3% 20 (434)
We expect ~2.5% y-o-y revenue growth in Pharma segment & ~17% y-o-y growth in
Life Sciences Ingredients (LSI) segment mainly driven by volume. Overall revenue is
expected to grow ~10% y-o-y to Rs 15.29 bn in Q4FY14E. We expect EBITDA margins
to remain flat on yearly basis due to price erosion & change in product mix would
offset by higher volume & operating leverage. Due to favorable currency movement,
company may report partial forex gains on foreign currency loans during the quarter.
We expect JLLs adjusted net profit to grow ~15 y-o-y to Rs 760 mn in Q4FY14E.
However, sequential decline in net profit may be due to tax benefit in the previous
quarter.
Key things to watch out: Pricing & volume growth, EBITDA margins, pricing scenario
in chemical business and Symtet capacity utilization.
Lupin Ltd: CMP= Rs 957, Reco= BUY, TP= Rs 1,128
On account of launch of Trizivir (with 180 days exclusivity), Cymbalta & Trilipix in
the previous quarter & Niaspan in the current quarter, we expect Lupins growth
momentum in US generic market to continue. However, due to genericisation of
Antara, branded business may remain muted. We expect Lupin to report ~ $220 mn
revenue from US market in the current quarter, but overall growth of only ~7% (in
USD term) mainly due to higher base in the same quarter previous year linked with
Tricor launch. Associated with new pricing policy implementation & higher base,
domestic market is likely to report growth of 12% y-o-y. Due to JPY depreciation
(against INR on yearly basis) & discontinuation in Iroms contract business, Lupins
Japanese business may remain flat. Still we expect overall revenue to grow ~13% y-
o-y to Rs 28.70 bn in Q4FY14E. Net profit is expected to grow by 10% y-o y to Rs
4.49 bn.
Considering exceptionally better product mix in the same quarter previous year
(Tricor launch), EBITDA margins are likely to decline ~75 bps y-o- y to 23.3% level in
Q4FY14E.
Key thing to watch out: Revenue growth across the markets, Yen depreciation impact
on Margins and commentary on new launches in US market.
Lupin Ltd(Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y Q.o.Q
Sales 28,696 25,374 29,830 13.1% -3.8%
EBITDA 6,687 6,102 7,343 9.6% -8.9%
Adj Net Profit 4,491 4,081 4,437 10.0% 1.2%
Forex (loss) gain/exceptional - - 324
Rep Net Profit 4,491 4,081 4,761 10.0% -5.7%
Adj EPS (Rs.) 10.02 9.12 10.65 9.9% -5.9%
EBITDA Margins 23.3% 24.0% 24.6% (75) (131)
Net Margins 15.6% 16.1% 14.9% (43) 77
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd: CMP=Rs 623, Reco=HOLD,
TP= Rs 638.
Sun Pharma (Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y.oY Q.o.Q
Sales 40,350 30,715 42,866 31.4% -5.9%
EBITDA 17,451 12,599 19,751 38.5% -11.6%
Adj Net Profit 12,657 10,116 15,052 25.1% -15.9%
Forex/exceptional item - - -
Rep Net Profit 12,657 10,116 15,052 25.1% -15.9%
Adj EPS (Rs.) 6.1 4.9 7.27 25.1% -15.9%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 43.2% 41.0% 46.1% 223 (283)
Net Margins 31.4% 32.9% 35.1% (157) (375)
Assuming ~$195 mn revenue from Taro Pharma, continuity in generic Doxil supply,
& good traction from DUSA & URL, we expect Sun Pharmas revenue to grow ~31%
y-o-y to Rs 40.35 bn in Q4FY14E. On account of favorable product mix & operating
leverage, EBITDA margins are likely to stand above 40% level. We expect Net profit
to grow 25% y-o-y to Rs 12.65 bn.
Key things to watch out: Revenue growth across the markets, sustainability in
EBITDA margins & commentary on Ranbaxy acquisition.
Torrent Pharmaceutical Ltd: CMP = Rs 557, Reco = HOLD, TP=
Rs 534
(Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y-o-Y Q-o-Q
Sales 10,285 8,030 9,900 28.08% 3.89%
EBITDA 1,587 1,520 1,540 4.43% 3.08%
Adj Net Profit 1,265 1,400 1,220 -9.62% 3.72%
Forex (loss) gain - (370) -
Rep Net profit 1,365 1,110 1,220 23.00% 11.91%
Adj EPS (Rs.) 7.48 8.27 6.62 -9.62% 12.98%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 15.4% 18.9% 15.6% (350) (12)
Net Margins 12.3% 17.4% 12.3% (513) (2)
Considering 13% y-o- y growth in domestic market, 14% in Brazil, healthy growth of
~85% from USA & continuity in orders from Germany, we expect Torrents revenue
to grow ~28% y-o- y to Rs 10.28 bn in Q4FY14E. In our view, USA & ROW markets
are likely to be key driver for growth.
We expect EBITDA margins to remain almost flat on quarterly basis but there may
be dip of ~350 bps on yearly basis due to milestone payment in the same quarter
previous year (Rs 300 mn).
Key things to watch out: Companys performance across the markets & EBITDA
margins.
Shilpa Medicare Ltd : CMP=Rs 428, Reco=BUY, TP= Rs 544
Shilpa Medicare Ltd (Rs Mn) Q4FY14E Q4FY13A Q3FY14A Y.o.Y Q.o.Q
Sales 1,650 985 1,543 67.5% 6.9%
EBITDA 338 170 334 98.8% 1.2%
Ad PAT 219 126 218 73.8% 0.5%
Forex (loss) gain/other - 1 12
Rep Net Profit 219 125 207 75.2% 6.1%
Adj EPS (Rs.) 5.96 3.43 5.93 73.8% 0.5%
bps bps
EBITDA Margins 20.5% 17.3% 21.7% 324 (115)
Net Margins 13.3% 12.8% 14.1% 48 (85)
On the back of continue ramp up in the product supply to one of its key client, we
expect Shilpa Medicare to report revenue growth of 67.5% y-o-y to Rs 1650 mn in
Q4FY14E. EBITDA margins are likely to stand above 20% level. Net profit would
grow 74% y-o-y to Rs 219 mn
Things to watch out: Sequential growth in revenue, EBITDA margins.
ANDAs approvals during Jan- March 2013 by INSPL Pharma Universe:
Source: USFDA; IndiaNivesh Research
Generic Name Company ANDA approval Date
DULOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE ZYDUS PHARMS USA INC 01/08/2014
AMLODIPINE BESYLATE; TELMISARTAN LUPIN LTD 01/08/2014
SIROLIMUS ZYDUS PHARMS USA INC 01/08/2014
AMLODIPINE BESYLATE; TELMISARTAN TORRENT PHARMS LTD 01/08/2014
BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE ZYDUS PHARMS USA INC 01/17/2014
REPAGLINIDE AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD 01/22/2014
ETODOLAC ZYDUS PHARMS USA INC 01/23/2014
ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE IPCA LABS LTD 01/23/2014
SUMATRIPTAN SUCCINATE DR REDDYS LABS INC 01/29/2014
BUSPIRONE HYDROCHLORIDE ZYDUS PHARMS USA INC 02/07/2014
TEMOZOLOMIDE SUN PHARMA GLOBAL 02/12/2014
IBANDRONATE SODIUM SUN PHARM INDS LTD 02/14/2014
CLONIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE ZYDUS PHARMS USA INC 02/20/2014
RIFABUTIN LUPIN LTD 02/24/2014
HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE; TELMISARTAN TORRENT PHARMS LTD 02/25/2014
HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE; TELMISARTAN ALEMBIC PHARMS LTD 02/25/2014
MOXIFLOXACIN HYDROCHLORIDE DR REDDYS LABS LTD 03/04/2014
MOXIFLOXACIN HYDROCHLORIDE AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD 03/04/2014
CIPROFLOXACIN LUPIN LTD 03/05/2014
DOXYCYCLINE LUPIN LTD 03/05/2014
AMLODIPINE BESYLATE; ATORVASTATIN CALCIUM DR REDDYS LABS LTD 03/07/2014
NIACIN LUPIN LTD 03/20/2014
TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD 03/31/2014
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as
information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or
published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed
as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance
is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise
of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been
obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh
independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any
responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any
omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date
appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the stocks mentioned in the report.
To unsubscribe please send a mail to mail@indianivesh.in
IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007.
Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899
e-mail: research@indianivesh.in | Website: www.indianivesh.in
Home

Best Pharma Stocks PDF

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Titolo originale

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Best Pharma Stocks PDF

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

7.

Potrebbero piacerti anche