Running head: COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES
College Quality and Labor Market Outcomes: A Review of the Literature
Katie Ratterree and Mary Rosage North Carolina State University
COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 2 Introduction The changing nature of higher education and the U.S. workforce is essential to understanding how returns to education vary across time (Long, 2010). Returns to education do not operate in a vacuum but rather as a factor of the labor market economy. As demands have shifted over time away from manual labor and towards a more high-skilled workforce, there has been an increasing number of students seeking further education. Early studies on educational quality simply focused on the number of years spent in school but now researchers are becoming more interested in the returns to individual and institutional characteristics (Monks, 2000). The choice of which college to attend is a cost-benefit analysis that includes both the cost of school and the cost of what one must give up to go, or opportunity cost, most commonly measured as foregone earnings (Thomas, 2000). In order to make informed decisions regarding the pursuit of higher education, students need information on college quality, expected outcomes, and differentials based on both individual and institutional characteristics. This paper seeks to summarize the current literature surrounding these topics and to provide a direction for future research regarding the impact of college quality on labor market outcomes. Background Whether it's done consciously or not, students most likely choose to attend college because they expect a greater return for going than not (Thomas, 2000). Because it is expensive to go to college, it is typically assumed that students choose to attend the school that they think will give them the most return on their investment (Long, 2008). As the cost of education rises, the value of a degree may change if returns do not increase at the same rate. For instance, according to Dale and Kruegers (2002) calculations, there was a large return to expensive tuition in the 1970s that likely contributed to the increased cost of higher education in the COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 3 decades following. However, considering that tuition has doubled in comparison to cost in the 1970s, the rate of return would drop by 8%. This is essential for students to understand if they want to evaluate if it's "worth it" to go to college because the cost of attendance is so high. According to human capital theory, the more time that an individual invests in their education, the more productive of a worker they will be in the labor market (Weiss, 1995). This interpretation of the value of education assumes that students are gaining skills that they would not otherwise have without the additional years of schooling. A signaling model on the other hand is grounded in the assumption that students who remain in school possess certain qualities that employers want in their employees but that may not necessarily be a result of their education. In other words, qualities like persistence and good health are characteristic of students who continue to pursue education, allowing employers to sort out less qualified workers who do not possess the same credentials regardless of actual, observed ability. How employers perceive students education credentials is critical to evaluating financial returns based on college quality. Based on human capital theory, an individuals choice of school will impact wages as a result of their experience at that school, time enrolled, individual qualities, and institutional characteristics (Monks, 2000). For instance, because of peer effects when surrounded by other bright students, those enrolled in higher quality schools may have greater benefits. Or, if the instruction is better, the students might learn more. Classroom atmosphere and curriculum may create more analytical thinkers and better problem solvers. As a result, students at different schools with different levels of quality will experience different human capital outputs. If employers rely on a human capital model when hiring, then students from higher quality schools may be better prepared and therefore more likely to be employed. If the human capital theory is correct, college quality should have a substantial effect on earnings COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 4 (Zhang, 2005). However, according to the Spence signaling model (1974), employers rely on market signals to hire workers (as cited in Arkes, 1999). In this case, school name, level of education, major, and other factors may influence earnings regardless of individual attributes or ability (Monks, 2000). More productive workers can distinguish themselves and create more opportunities through a signal such as a bachelors degree that differentiates them from other less productive workers (Arkes, 1999). This is especially likely when institutional characteristics are easier to observe than individual ones (Monks, 2000). It should also be noted that hiring decisions may be a combination of both human capital and signaling theories. Arkes (1999) attempted to separate the two by conducting a study to evaluate pre-college abilities and how certain degrees function as a signal to employers. He found that a high school diploma, college attendance, a bachelors degree, and a graduate degree all function as a signal to employers of students' pre-college ability. If this were a pure signaling model, a pre-college test that captures the ability conveyed through these degrees would serve as an equivalent substitute for the credential. However, once ability is controlled for, there still appear to be labor market benefits of both an associates and a bachelors degree implying that they may signal other harder to measure qualities to employers such as motivation and perseverance. Therefore, at least for bachelors and associate degrees, a cognitive ability test would not account for all of the factors employers evaluate using a signaling model for these degrees. College Quality College quality is hard to measure and there is no single, agreed-upon criterion for what makes one school better than another. Common measures of quality include SAT scores, Barrons ratings, and net tuition. The students selected to study and the schools included in COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 5 quality samples are derived from national databases that hold a wealth of information on characteristics of both students and institutions. Research on returns to education by college quality vary depending on the method, data sets, and measures of institutional selectivity used to calculate outcomes. Measuring College Quality Institutional selectivity, typically based on Barrons Profiles of American Colleges, is the most used indicator of college quality in the relevant literature. Barrons ratings index schools into six selectivity groups based on average SAT scores, high school class rank of incoming freshmen, high school GPA, and admittance rate (Thomas & Zhang, 2005a). These rankings are commonly accepted measures of college selectivity but Thomas and Zhang (2005b) argued that selectivity is only a component of quality, not a standalone indication of it. This may explain why only some studies include Barrons rankings as the sole measure for quality (Brewer et al, 1999; Monks, 2000, Thomas & Zhang, 2005a) while others include additional measures and construct their own quality index. For instance, Longs (2008) study on the effect of quality on earnings uses Barrons index as a supplement to the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). IPEDS data provides information on net tuition (cost of attendance less financial aid received), average salary of full professors, and the undergraduate student to faculty ratio. The aggregate of these metrics is sorted to form a quality index beyond simply Barrons selectivity as a base for the study. Other studies use a variation of Longs (2008) approach. His succeeding analysis on early adulthood outcomes of education used the same metrics but included rejection rates (Long, 2010). While not widely used in other studies, rejection rates help to create the college quality index by grouping students who were accepted and rejected from similar schools (Dale & COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 6 Krueger, 2002). Thomas (2000, 2003) and Rumberger and Thomas (1993) depart from the traditional use of Barrons by using Astins selectivity ratings. These ratings are determined by SAT scores, undergraduate student to faculty ratio, percentage of full-time undergraduates, and size of student body (Thomas, 2000, 2003). Irrespective of the combination of data used to group colleges into quality, all studies use SAT scores in some manner to benchmark quality (Smith, 2013; Dale & Krueger, 2011, 2002; Long, 2008, 2010; Thomas & Zhang, 2005a; Black & Smith, 2004; Thomas, 2003, 2000; Monks, 2000; Brewer, Eide, Ehrenberg, 1999; Rumberger & Thomas, 1993). However, Rothstein (2004) indicates that once background characteristics are controlled for, SAT is not as strong of an indicator of how a student will perform in college. As the focus on tuition hikes grows, more recent studies also include net tuition under quality, mainly to determine the effect of sticker price on labor market outcomes (Smith, 2013; Dale & Krueger, 2002, 2011; Long, 2010, 2008). The use of different metrics to calculate quality may be concerning to the consistency of results. Zhang (2005) explores the implications of various quality measures on the results of wage studies. Using the same student and school-level data across the entire sample, his study determines the difference in findings between Barrons ratings, SAT scores, Carnegie classifications and net tuition as benchmarks for quality. Zhang found that each measure includes a different set of colleges in a quality group because each has a different set of criteria for quality. For example, Carnegie-classified colleges are a larger sample than Barrons colleges because the information is easier to find for most institutions. Each measure also yields a different level of strength between quality and earnings; however, they all reach the conclusion that quality has an impact on earnings. For example, Zhangs calculations show that Barrons yields a larger effect of quality on earnings than average SAT scores. This study asserts that COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 7 while the general conclusion of this research question is the same across studies, the instrument used to measure it may lead to differences in the findings. Student-Level Source Data Literature on the returns to education quality is grounded in longitudinal cohort data. These types of studies survey a cohort of students at a certain point in time, usually in high school or college, and resurvey them through the remainder of their education and beyond. The data from these studies contains demographic information, test scores, undergraduate education, and career information. This provides a base for researchers who study college quality as they can measure labor market outcomes of education over time from various angles. Because these studies require long-term data, the most recent information available is the series of Baccalaureate and Beyond Studies (BBS) of the early 1990s used by Thomas (2000, 2003), Thomas & Zhang (2005a) and Zhang (2005). The data from these studies is obtained from the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) which gathers its data from students enrolled in a four-year college at the time of the study. The first BBS series followed a sample of participants who received their bachelors degree in 1992-1993 who are periodically interviewed in subsequent years to observe their educational and work experiences through 2003. Studies on college quality use the BBS follow-up surveys of 1994 (Thomas, 2000; Thomas & Zhang, 2005a) and 1997 (Thomas, 2003; Thomas & Zhang, 2005a) to measure various returns to education based on factors such as race, gender, major, and parental education. A newer series of BBS studies is currently in process using a 2000 cohort of college students (Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study, n.d.). So far, this data has not been analyzed for returns to education in the literature surveyed. COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 8 Another widely used database is the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS) which follows students beginning in high school. This study sampled students who were in 8 th
grade as of 1988 and, similar to the BBS studies, are periodically re-surveyed through 2000 (Long, 2008, 2010; Smith, 2013; Dale & Krueger, 2002; Brewer et al, 1999 ). This sample is usually used in the literature in conjunction with other data. Long (2010), for example, used this sample along with two other high school studies, the High School and Beyond (HSB) Survey of 1980 and the National Longitudinal Study (NLS) of the High School Class of 1972. This was done in an effort to gather a representative sample of high school seniors from three cohorts that are ten years apart. Smith (2013) used this sample along with College Board information on where students sent their SAT scores. The remaining research on college quality uses national survey data dating back to the 1970s and 1980s and is mixed between high school and college cohorts (Dale & Krueger, 2002, 2011; Black & Smith, 2004; Monks, 2000; Brewer, et al., 1999; Rumberger & Thomas, 1993). Similar to previously mentioned studies, several national databases are concurrently used as a way to gather a representative sample and analyze different levels of outcomes. Dale and Krueger (2002) used the NLS together with the College and Beyond Survey (C&B) and the Student Descriptive Questionnaire from the SATs. NLS was used for student demographics and colleges students applied to while the SAT Student Descriptive Questionnaire provided information on parental income and class rank. C&B was used for information on private and public school attendees and a mail order survey from C&B was used to determine post-college earnings, other schools applied to, the results of the application, and the students' current occupation. COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 9 Black and Smith (2004), Monks (2000), and Arkes (1999) used the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) for students who were 14-21 years old at the time and followed up on an annual and biannual basis until 1998. They used this survey along with the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery Test (ASVAB) to study pre-college abilities by demographics, understand how students sort into colleges, and what a college education does for human capital. Other surveys used in college quality literature include the 1987 Survey of Recent College Graduates (Rumberger & Thomas, 1993). Again, all such data is used concurrently with other databases to strengthen results. It is important to note that student-level inputs are not frequently critiqued in the literature as they all measure similar data at different points in time. As these data sources are from national databases, they hold more information than needed for studies on college quality and labor market outcomes. Researchers used them as a base to manipulate the data and form the sample population needed for the study. From the literature surveyed, studies use students who have graduated college with a bachelors degree (i.e. attended a 4-year college), are not pursuing another degree at the time of the study, and do not already hold a graduate degree (Smith, 2013; Long 2010, 2008; Black & Smith, 2004; Thomas & Zhang, 2005a; Thomas, 2000, 2003; Zhang, 2005; Dale & Krueger, 2010, 2008; Brewer et al, 1999; Monks, 2000; Rumberger & Thomas, 1993). Studies that specifically examine the effect of college quality on earnings restricted their sample to participants who are employed at the time of the study. The Baccalaureate and Beyond samples only include participants who hold a full-time job and earn between $1,000 and $500,000 a year (Thomas, 2000, 2003; Thomas & Zhang, 2005a; Zhang, 2005). These restrictions provide researchers with a better level of confidence that the results will not be affected by factors other than what is being COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 10 measured. While all studies record student demographic data, some oversample certain races/ethnicities to establish a large enough sample size. Monks (2000) and Rumberger and Thomas (1993) noted that because black and Hispanic students tend to have lower college enrollment rates, they are oversampled in their studies. Similarly, Dale and Krueger (2011) use the College & Beyond survey to include information on all private school respondents but only certain respondents from public schools (i.e. minorities, varsity-letter winners, SATs 1350+). Research on college outcomes of twins includes an extra step of identifying participants by matching student records either based on address, last name, high school attended, and address (Smith, 2013) or sampling from a twin database (Behrman, Rosenzweig, & Taubman, 1996). School-Level Source Data Institutional data examines information on school characteristics and is matched to student data of where the sample population indicated that they attended college. One popular sample of institutional data is the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) which gathers data on college characteristics from the US Departments National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) (About IPEDS, n.d.). This system data contains school-level information on enrollment rates, graduation rates, faculty/staff, cost of attendance, and financial aid. It is used in Smiths (2013) study on educational outcomes of twins and Longs (2008) study on college quality. It is also frequently used by Thomas (2000, 2003), Thomas & Zhang (2005a), and Zhang (2005) in their study of labor market outcomes of higher education quality. This data is used to measure school characteristics of the colleges their sample of students applied to in the Baccalaureate and Beyond Study as previously discussed. Because IPEDS only includes institutions that report their characteristics with this database, not all COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 11 colleges are included. In these studies, researchers only include students who attend an institution with data reported to IPEDS (Thomas, 2000, 2003: Thomas & Zhang, 2005a; Zhang, 2005). Similar to the manner in which student-level data is used, school-level data also uses several sources to create a robust sample. Thomas (2000, 2003) studies on college quality uses the Annual Survey of Colleges compiled by the College Board concurrently with IPEDS data to get more information on applications and enrollments. The College Boards survey is also used by Rumberger and Thomas (1993) in their work, supplemented with Astins institutional selectivity ratings. While Barrons Profiles of American Colleges is mainly used as a tool to determine college quality rankings, it is also used by several researchers for school-level data (Long, 2008, 2010; Thomas & Zhang, 2005a; Zhang, 2005). The College and Beyond Survey is used frequently in Dale and Kruegers (2002, 2011) research, however, it is not without its critics. In their 2011 follow-up study to the return of college selectivity, they note that the majority of schools listed in the College and Beyond Survey are selective and not representative of the national average. The average SAT score among the 27 schools in the sample was 1175 and fall into Highly Competitive or Most Competitive categories of Barrons rankings. While Dale & Krueger (2011) ascertained that this does not impact their results of earnings by school selectivity, they acknowledge that the study does not take into account the results of attending less selective schools. This series of studies also yields different findings to college quality research questions possibly because of the sample used.
COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 12 Selection Bias An important factor to consider when measuring returns based on college quality is selection bias (Black & Smith, 2004; Brand & Halaby, 2006; Behrman, Rosenzweig, & Taubman, 1996; Monks, 2000; Dale & Krueger, 2002; Long, 2008; Brewer, Eide, & Ehrenberg, 1999). Long (2008) explains that student outcomes are based on college quality, cost of attendance, individual attributes, family attributes, and neighborhood characteristics. As is evident, a number of these factors are not a result of college quality directly. If factors other than institutional characteristics impact student educational outcomes, studies that do not account for these other factors will be biased. A major shortcoming of earlier college quality studies is that they do not account for the non-random selection of students into colleges (Black & Smith, 2004). Black and Smith identify a lack of control for pre-existing student characteristics that affect student sorting into colleges and ability that affects school and labor market performance. Research in the 1990s regarding returns to elite colleges began to identify the shortcomings of earlier studies that concluded graduates of elite colleges experience higher labor market returns than peers in other schools but did not control for selection bias (Brand & Halaby, 2006). Selection into college is a two way street (Monks, 2000). Not only do students pick schools based on their potential earnings and opportunities but schools admit students based on their ability, and sometimes financial status. The selection criteria colleges use for admissions may be the same or similar to qualities that predict student success (Dale & Krueger, 2002). In other words, the reasons that schools choose to admit students may be the same reasons they are more successful in the marketplace than students from less competitive colleges. They are not necessarily more successful as a result of the college itself. Additionally, certain student groups may be more likely to apply to selective colleges in the first place. For instance, Griffith and COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 13 Rothstein (2009) look at the factors that influence how and why students choose to apply to selective four-year schools. They find that low-income students are not as likely as high-income students to apply to selective four-year schools. Their findings indicate that this is not necessarily a result of income level but rather distance from high quality institutions. Studies have tried to account for this non-random selection by conditioning for certain pre-determined observable characteristics (Black & Smith, 2004). The impact of selection bias likely influences a number of the differential returns to education by student group that will be discussed in more detail later in this paper (Behrman, Rosenzweig, & Taubman, 1996). For instance, selection bias may play a role in choosing to be in the workforce, particularly for women who may be less inclined towards a career once they reach childbearing age. If not accounted for, this could skew findings on female employment. The human capital measurement of the value of education is also impacted by selection bias. Behrman et al. cite Ben-Porath (1967) as the creator of a three input model to the human capital production function that begins with the human capital that is bestowed upon an individual. The second is the amount of time the individual invests in their own human capital development and finally, human capital inputs that are purchased either privately or publicly (e.g. public education). Most early research that looks at this production function limits the evaluation to a particular level of schooling and does not account for inputs beyond school such as family attributes and parental endowments. It is possible that student outcomes are related to unmeasured qualities and go undetected in studies, thereby wrongly attributing outcomes to a measurable input rather than the input that is present but unmeasured. Controlling for selection bias is extremely difficult (Monks, 2000). Although researchers are aware of the role selection bias plays, controlling for it continues to pose an issue in COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 14 measuring student outcomes (Brand & Halaby, 2006). In their findings, Brand and Halaby strongly reiterate that their controls for selection bias are limited to observable student characteristics and therefore may not take unobservable qualities into consideration. Dale and Krueger (2011) conducted a study that includes two models: a basic model that only controls for standard, observed measures of student ability and a self-revelation model that controls for standard, observed measures, and some unobserved. However, they do not claim to have been able to control for all unobserved measures. Findings on returns to education that involve potential selection bias, particularly those that do not even attempt to control for it, should be interpreted carefully. Research Methods Similar to the methods used to calculate college quality, researchers use a diverse set and combination of methods to evaluate the returns to education. The most common method used in research on college quality is single-level modeling using an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method (Rumberger & Thomas, 1993; Thomas, 2003). This method is popular because much of the research seeks to understand the effect of quality on earnings or completion outcomes by individual-level characteristics; OLS is most appropriate in these cases. Because these studies have varying levels of complexity due to factors like selection bias, researchers normally take on a multilevel approach. In the relevant literature, OLS is coupled with Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) (Rumberger & Thomas, 1993), Generalized Least Squares (GLS) (Thomas & Zhang, 2005a), or other method(s) (Long, 2008, 2010; Smith, 2013; Behrman, Rosenzweig, & Taubman, 1996; Brand & Halaby, 2006; Black & Smith, 2004; Brewer, Eide, Ehrenberg, 1999). The only study that uses OLS as a standalone method is Zhangs (2005) study on the implications of using various measures of quality for simplicity of the study. COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 15 In earnings studies, OLS is used to estimate earnings by demographic variables and HLM is used to determine differences within and between schools (Rumberger & Thomas, 1993). These methods yield similar results and complement each other to paint a more clear picture of the effect of quality between students in the sample and between schools or students within the same school. Thomas and Zhangs (2005a) research on wage effects four years after college believe that using OLS and a GLS method together is the most effective way to determine changes between two points of time. In a study on the combination of college major, quality, and performance on school debt to earnings ratios, Thomas (2000, 2003) uses HLM modeling as the sole method. This method is used to measure demographics, education, and labor market experiences in one set of variables in order to compare them to a set of family background dummy variables (Thomas, 2000, 2003). This approach is most appropriate in this study as his research looks to understand whether there are non-school related variables that impact the cost-benefit analysis of attending college. Dale and Krueger (2002) credit Brewer et al. (1999) with addressing the issue of selection bias using a reduced-form multinomial logit model. They also attempt to address this in their method of matching students who are accepted and rejected from the same schools. As these students are comparable in their observable characteristics, they also implement a selection-adjusted model to hold SAT scores constant of the school they applied to, went to, and their own SAT score. Dale and Krueger (2011, 2014) replicate this study in a follow-up of the same cohort and include a newer cohort group in 2011 and 2014; they arrive at the same conclusion in each study. Black and Smith (2004) criticize studies that only use linear regression as a method to determine college quality. They employ a matching propensity score method in which they COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 16 attempt to predict the probability of a student attending a high quality versus a low quality college. They compare the findings using this method to a linear regression model and find that the effect of college quality on labor market outcomes is the same. They also find evidence that matching estimates have larger standard errors than OLS methods. Because of the myriad of methods used in college quality studies, Long (2008) conducted a study using four methods for comparison to determine earnings and degree completion outcomes: a regression model, instrumental variable method, Dale and Krueger's method, and Black and Smiths method. He used OLS to regress quality and student characteristics. The instrumental variable method uses the quality of the closest college within a students residence as an instrument of the quality of school the student ultimately attends; this proved to be a strong predictor of quality as students are often faced with the choice of attending college close by due to cost. The Dale and Krueger and Black and Smith methods were both used in Longs (2008) study as designed in their original studies but expanded to include degree attainment as an outcome and a broader set of quality metrics. Although the Dale and Krueger method is criticized for not being nationally representative, it is used as such in this study. The Black and Smith (2004) method is also criticized for its sample size. The second and third- quartile colleges are dropped from the study in an effort to obtain a sample of only bottom rated and top rated colleges (Long, 2008). Essentially, students in the remaining sample are said to have been administered treatment but the sample is largely reduced because of this criteria (Long, 2008). Nonetheless, all methods show an outcome consistent with previous research or the methods previous conclusions. Other methods include Longs (2010) regression logarithm to study various outcomes of college (earnings, family implications, civic engagement and college completion) by student, COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 17 parent and neighborhood attributes. Monks (2000) takes an approach different from other studies by using an economic model that follows human capital and signalling theories. He uses a regression log of wages in his approach under the assumption that attending a certain college relates human capital outcomes to wages and arrives at the same conclusion as most other studies. In his studies of twins, Smith (2013) uses a regression model in the traditional sense along with a fixed effects model to difference out family effects on outcomes of degree attainment. Resume Audit Studies. As discussed earlier in this paper, the criteria employers use to make hiring decisions is likely a combination of both observed and unobserved characteristics. One of the shortcomings of traditional labor market outcomes measurements is the inability to account and accurately control for all of the different factors that may play into an employers choice of who to hire (Bertrand & Mullainathan, 2003). Resume audit studies offer an alternative method by replicating actual hiring practices. Other methods used to measure labor market outcomes are typically unable to examine the role of discrimination in hiring (Heckman & Siegelman, 1993). Audit studies also allow researchers to explore more nuanced factors of labor market success such as school quality and GPA whereas other measures are limited to less precise parameters such as years of education. One approach to conducting an audit study is to inform the subjects of the purpose of the research as seen in Cole, Rubin, Feild, and Giles (2007) and Heimstra, Derous, Serlie, and Born (2013). A benefit to having an informed resume rater is that the researchers are able to hone in on specific aspects of resumes that impact employer decisions (Cole et al., 2007). In both of these studies, informed recruiters or employers were asked to rate real resumes on areas identified by the researchers. A second method in audit studies is to actually apply to jobs COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 18 without informing the employer in order to mimic more realistic hiring circumstances. This approach is seen in Bertrand and Mullainathan who use actual job seekers resumes to apply to advertisements in Boston and Chicago newspapers. They created a bank of resumes and implied racial identity using names that their research indicated were associated primarily with either the caucasian or African American race. Ghayad (2013) and Kroft, Lange, and Notowigo (2013) use a similar approach to evaluate how employers react to unemployment on a resume. Ghayad limits his research to administrative, sales, and professional positions in four industries: Financial Activities, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Professional and Business Services, and Education and Health Services. Implying a particular racial, ethnic, or social identification through applicant name and activity on a resume is also employed by Derous and Ryan (2012) and Drydakis (2009). Using real resumes is common practice in resume audit studies (Bertrand & Mullainathan, 2003; Derous & Ryan, 2012; Kroft et al., 2013; Cole et al., 2007; Heimstra et al., 2013). A more recent innovation for resume audit studies is an automated computer software created by Lahey and Beasley (2009) and used by both Johnson and Lahey (2011) and Ghayad (2013) to create applicant materials. Resume audit studies performed using a computer-generated program helps to resolve the issue of template bias by creating and matching resumes for the researcher (Lahey & Beasley, 2009). The software utilizes a web-based outline created by the experimenter to define and input particular characteristics in the resume. Then, using the experimenter-defined characteristics to generate and record the resume information, the researcher chooses which job to apply to and the software generates a resume without the input of the experimenter. The program creates and stores the characteristics and date of the resume. It is also capable of producing cover letters. An outline can be set up to match resumes for paired COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 19 audits studies and multiple matched resumes can be sent. The program saves choices made in creating a resume which can be re-created in later sessions. It is important to note that audit studies are not without fault and do have some shortcomings (Bertrand & Mullainathan, 2003; Heckman, 1998; Heckman & Siegelman, 1993). First and foremost, audit studies are not randomized (Heckman & Siegelman) and tend to be expensive (Bertrand & Mullainathan, 2003). Audit studies often assume that hiring is a linear function which may not actually be the case (Heckman, 1998). Depending on the method used, some audit studies are not double blind which could bias the decision making and actions of the subjects involved (Bertrand & Mullainathan, 2003). The reliability of an audit study is contingent on the fact that researchers are able to create identical profiles for all participants other than the variable they wish to examine (Heckman & Siegelman, 1993). This assumes that researchers can identify and control for all of the factors that employers use in evaluating an employee which is likely not possible. However, following Heckman and Siegelman's commentary on the inability to control for unobserved variability between applicants, Neumark (2010) creates an equation that can still generate accurate results. He then applies that method to Bertrand and Mullainathan's (2003) study to not only confirm but also strengthen their findings on the presence of racial discrimination towards African American's in the labor market. He explains that the proposed method can also be utilized in future audit studies by intentionally creating different resumes rather than trying to make them all identical except for a single variable 1 .
1 See Appendix A for a summary of all resume audit study methods. COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 20 Labor Market Outcomes Measures of return to college quality include graduation rates, employability, earnings potential, and social returns. The results of college outcomes are not homogeneous across groups. The quality of the college attended has a different, and sometimes an opposite, effect on different groups of students. A students race, major studied, gender, socioeconomic background, parental characteristics, and school control (public or private) all have a bearing on the outcomes of their education. College Completion Before discussing the effect of college quality on student outcomes after degree completion, it is necessary to examine the impact of quality on their ability to graduate. This is important to understand as the literature discusses the attainment of a degree as a signal to employers about an applicants abilities (Arkes, 1999; Spence, 1974 as cited in Thomas & Zhang, 2005a). The most recent study on this topic finds that a students probability to graduate college in four years increases by 5% when attending a high quality institution (Smith, 2013). Smith defines institutional quality by average SAT score and designates a 100 point increase between a high quality institution and a moderate quality institution. Enrolling in a moderately selective college over a less selective college has an even larger effect; the probability to graduate increases by 10%. Long (2010) arrives at the same conclusion in his study of three cohorts graduating high school ten years apart. One standard deviation increase of quality in his study equates to a 5%-8.5% increase in the likelihood to graduate in each cohort sample. Overall, this effect is supported by findings in other studies (Long, 2008; Brand & Halaby, 2006; Light & Strayer, 2000) but it is important to note that results of quality on college COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 21 completion cannot be generalized to all groups of students as discussed in the student differentials section of this paper. Student ability and unobservable characteristics that are unrelated to school quality are also found to have an impact on graduation rates. SAT score, high school rank and family background influence degree attainment (Kane & Spizman, 1994). Students who have the scholastic ability (as measured by SAT scores) to enroll in a selective college but choose a less selective school experience a decrease in their probability to graduate (Smith, 2013), sometimes by as much as 40% (Cohodes & Goodman, 2012, as cited by Smith, 2013). However, a student of lower ability who enrolls in a more selective institution does not increase their chances of graduation (Smith, 2013). In fact, another study using the Armed Forces Qualifying Test to examine ability shows that this decreases their chances of graduating due to a mismatch between student ability and school quality (Light & Strayer, 2002). It also supports Smiths finding that high ability students have a decreased chance of graduating from a low quality college, although their findings show a much smaller likelihood than Cohodes and Goodmans (2012) 40% decrease. The study concluded that a fit between student ability and school quality optimizes graduation rates (Light & Strayer, 2002). Unobservable characteristics not measured in these studies are also thought to have an influence over graduation rates. Student motivation may have an impact and admission boards may draw conclusions about a student based on their application essay; neither of these attributes are quantified in school quality studies (Smith, 2013). One way this is addressed in the literature is by grouping students who applied and were accepted or rejected from similar colleges (Long, 2008). Using a fixed effects model on twins, Smiths (2013) findings mirror other studies on COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 22 twins and inferences that unobservable traits such as family effects do not have a statistically significant impact. Employability Most studies on college quality address labor market outcomes such as earnings, completion, and other returns. No studies focus specifically on the intersection of quality and post college employment; rather, education is discussed as an important prerequisite to employment. Additional years of schooling are found to increase wages and labor force participation but the results vary across student groups (Long, 2010). The College Board (as cited by Smith, 2013) noted that college graduates have better chances of employment. Card (1999) echoes this in his study as individuals in his sample with more education experience less unemployment and attain more prestigious jobs than non-graduates. Brewer et als (1999) cohort sample of college graduates was at least 84% employed at the time of graduation but the study does not explore whether that is a reflection of the type of institution attended. Arcidiacono (2004) loosely addresses this subject as he notes that high quality colleges make well-paid jobs more attractive and students who choose such types of jobs, particularly in natural sciences, are more likely to be employed. This infers that quality and employment may be related but the correlation is not examined. Further research is needed in this area to analyze whether a correlation exists to understand how quality impacts the likelihood of obtaining employment after graduation. Because resume audit studies are typically focused on employment, we find it most appropriate to include those findings here. Audit studies that examined the impact of unemployment on future employability found that unemployment spells of six months (Ghayad, 2013) or eight months (Kroft et al., 2013) decrease the likelihood of getting hired. Both authors COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 23 suggest that this is the result of a signaling or screening model used by employers to make assumptions about workers who have not recently been employed, regardless of their actual qualifications or ability to perform the job well. The strength of the labor market probably also plays a role in how unemployment impacts employability (Kroft et al.). Using actual job seeker resumes with implied racial identity, Bertrand and Mullainathan (2003) found that African American job seekers were less likely to get callbacks for interviews than white candidates. The authors cite this as evidence that poor labor market performance for African Americans is at least in part due to labor market discrimination by employers. Hiemstra et al. (2013) and Cole et al. (2007) conduct resume studies that use informed raters to evaluate resumes, allowing for a more in-depth look at specific resume components. Hiemstra et al. explore why it takes longer for non-western graduates to find employment compared to their western peers. Their findings imply that lower levels of extracurricular participation, demonstrated leadership, and internship experience of non-westerners make their resumes less appealing to employers. Although discrimination in hiring may be a factor, Hiemstra et al. conclude that extra time needed for non-western graduate students to find a job is quite possibly a result of lower levels of human capital as expressed through a resume. They also make the observation that both applicant and employer characteristics should be considered in audit studies. Cole et al's (2007) results indicate that when student resumes demonstrate excellence in academics, extracurriculars, and work experience, employers do not place emphasis on one area over another. Additionally, when one of the three areas demonstrates significantly more success than the other two, it did not appear to hurt the employers perception of the student. Cole et al. also found that employers were interested not just in the quantity of items on a resume but also the relevance that experience had to the position available. When COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 24 asked which areas were most important for making hiring decisions, employers typically ranked in the order of work experience, academic ability, and then extracurricular activities (Cole et al., 2007). However, their actual ratings were inconsistent with their perceptions of their priorities which indicated positive ratings for strong extra-curriculars, no impact on ratings for work experience and negative impact for academics. This finding may be important for future research on college quality and the necessity to control for resume content. Earnings While individual measures such as major and GPA have an effect on an individuals post- college earnings (Rumberger & Thomas, 1993), many studies find that institutional quality has a significant role on this outcome (Black & Smith, 2004; Long, 2008, 2010; Monks, 2000; Brewer, 1999; Thomas, 2000, 2003; Rumberger & Thomas, 1993; Behrman, Rosenzweig, Taubman, 1996). The strength of that relationship, however, varies by study. Some studies found that school quality has a significant effect on earnings (Long, 2008; Behrman, Rosenzweig, & Taubman, 1996, Brewer at al, 1999, Rumberger & Thomas, 1993) while others find that it has a small but statistically significant effect (Zhang, 2005; Thomas, 2000). Using an OLS technique, Rumberger and Thomas (1993) conclude that school quality significantly influences future earnings as measured by Astins selectivity ratings. This finding is supported by Longs (2008) study on early adult outcomes that finds a positive, significant increase in earnings, particularly on couples earnings, as a result of a high quality education. His follow-up 2010 study includes the same student sample and introduces two additional samples in order to study three cohorts that are ten years apart. This is noteworthy because each cohort generates the same results except for the oldest cohort which experiences a preliminary dip in earnings in its early years out of college; ultimately this cohorts earnings show a significant, positive effect by the 14th year COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 25 out of high school (Long, 2010). Brewer et al (1999), who also compared several cohorts to each other, found a consistent increase in earnings. This study focuses on whether higher returns exist only at four year colleges of certain types and finds that there is a labor market wage premium to attending an elite private institution compared to a bottom rated school (Brewer et al, 1999). Middle-rated private institutions also yield higher earnings compared to lower quality institutions (Brewer et al, 1999). Monks (2000) expanded this research question by comparing liberal arts schools to research universities and finds similar results. Thomas (2003) notes that students from highly selective, private schools enjoy a 12% earnings advantage over their counterparts who attend a lower quality institution. While the literature surveyed indicates a significant impact of school quality on future earnings, many note that the results vary in strength by students of certain demographic groups as examined in the differentials section of this paper (Rumberger & Thomas, 1993; Thomas, 2000; Brand & Halaby, 2006). Long-term studies find that the impact of institutional quality becomes more pronounced over time. College quality does not have a profound effect during the early years after graduation but stronger effects on earnings emerge later on (Thomas & Zhang, 2005a). Thomas (2003) and Thomas and Zhang (2005a) both note that these effects are much more apparent four years after college graduation than during the first year. This supports Brewer et als (1999) cohort results which showed a 9% wage increase three years out of college and 15% increase fourteen years out of college. Conversely, in a more recent study, Thomas (2000) determines that quality continues to affect initial earnings but at a much lower rate than previously reported. Brand and Halaby (2006) also note that quality increases initial job status but the results on earnings are mixed. COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 26 Dale and Krueger are perhaps one of the only researcher teams to find that quality does not impact earnings. In their 2002 study they determined quality based on the types of schools students were accepted to and rejected from and found no correlation between higher selectivity and earnings once they controlled for selection. They did find that higher net tuition impacts earnings, but this may be used more as a signal to employers during the hiring process than an indication of student ability. Dale and Krueger's (2011, 2014) follow-up studies finds similar results and concludes that the results of earnings show that there is an impact to quality only when unobservable student characteristics are not controlled for. Their findings, however, may be restricted to the sample used. The types of schools in the College & Beyond Survey are selective colleges that show average earnings of $84,219. Since this sample is not nationally representative, while other samples are, it may be the reason that it is one of few studies that find a lack of impact on school quality on earnings. Private and Public Returns In addition to degree attainment and other post graduation outcomes, a college education is found to deliver both personal and social returns to society. These outcomes are not researched as extensively and are not evaluated in terms of quality of education but are proven to be linked to more years of schooling (i.e. completing college). Hout (2012) found that generally, people who have graduated college tend to be more happy, healthy, have a greater life expectancy, and a more stable family life. Long (2012) supports the family life claim as he finds that divorce rates decrease among college graduates. In his study of three cohorts that are ten years apart, Long also finds that each year of education led to a greater delay in marriage and having children. This outcome is most prevalent in the oldest cohort which graduated college in 1979; younger cohorts experience a diminished effect on these outcomes from a college COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 27 education, but the finding is still significant (Long). This does not indicate that more years of schooling leads to a decrease in marriage and childbearing across the United States. It means that college-educated individuals are simply waiting longer to take a step towards these milestones. Other findings on personal returns support Houts (2012) results that college educated individuals lead a healthier lifestyle; they are also more likely to have insurance (Smith, 2013). Higher education also impacts public returns that have an effect on society as a whole. Hout (2012) found that college graduates have lower crime rates and the College Board results of 2012 (as cited in Smith, 2013) note that college returns include an increase in voter turnout and volunteering. Other research also supports the claim of an increase in voter registration (Hout, 2012; Long, 2010). An important finding to note is that Longs (2010) study on college outcomes found an increase in the oldest cohorts registration to vote but a diminished positive increase in the younger cohorts studied. He does not provide an explanation on the cause of this finding but there may be historical and political indicators of this finding outside of the scope of college outcome studies. Additionally, a criticism of studies on private and social returns to college completion is that they conclude that attending college is the reason for the outcomes (Hout, 2012). Hout, however, notes that this may not necessarily be the case. Students who choose to go to college may already be more inclined to partake in activities that contribute to society or to ones own lifestyle, again reiterating the presence of selection bias. These inclinations may be the reason they apply to college in the first place and are correlated with a college degree rather than an outcome.
COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 28 Differentials There are a number of individual and institutional variables beyond school quality that may lead to differential labor market outcomes. These include gender, race/ethnicity, major, type of school, and parental characteristics including socioeconomic status (SES) and education attainment. Results are not the same across student groups (Dale & Krueger, 2002). In order to maximize earnings potential, students may not need to choose the most selective school that they were accepted to, depending on their individual characteristics and what the school has to offer. For instance, a student who wants to follow a career path that is only offered at the less selective school they are accepted to would be better off going there. Essentially, the fit matters, and a better understanding of returns for each demographic group will help students to make more informed decisions to maximize their education investment and potential for larger returns according to individual characteristics. Race. Findings on race differentials regarding returns to education are often conflicting with some studies reporting greater returns to more selective schools for non-white students (Monks, 2000; Dale & Krueger, 2011) while others reveal the same (Thomas & Zhang, 2005; Rumberger & Thomas, 1993) or lower returns (Smith, 2013). Historically speaking, differences in education attainment have long been considered a factor in the earnings gap between black and white workers (Thomas & Zhang, 2005a). Thomas and Zhang find that there are no significant earnings differentials between black and white college graduates when college quality is controlled for, implying that when education credentials are equal, race is not a determining factor in labor market outcomes. Using a regression model of measurement, Rumberger and Thomas (2003) come to a similar conclusion. Interestingly, some studies suggest that minority students from highly selective schools have higher earning premiums than white students COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 29 (Monks, 2000; Dale & Krueger, 2011). In Dale and Kruegers estimates, this remains true even after the quality of the school based on SAT score has been controlled for. If the Kolpin and Singell (1997) finding is true that new race blind policies might mean fewer minority students are accepted to selective schools, then the minority students who do graduate from more selective institutions will benefit even more than otherwise (as cited in Monks, 2000). According to Meisenheimer (1990, as cited in Kane & Spizman, 1994), in comparison to black students with only a high school degree, African American students with a college degree earn 1.5 times more, further indicating the importance of college access to minority groups in order to close earnings gaps (Kane & Spizman, 1994). Longs (2010) finding that the largest returns for more time invested in college education accrued to blacks, Hispanics, and men imply that years of education are also a likely contributing factor to earnings gains. However, there are recent conflicting findings indicating that black, Hispanic, and Asian students are less impacted by selectivity than whites, conflicting with earlier research (Smith, 2013). More research needs to be conducted to determine more conclusive findings regarding returns to education by race. Major. There was a major upwards shift in returns to college education in the 1980s as measured by earnings in the labor market (Grogger and Eide, 1995). Grogger and Eide reveal that, for male workers, this is a result of more students choosing high-skill college majors than low-skill majors. Their calculations indicate that the pattern shift in area of study accounts for as much as 25% of the overall increase in wage premium for men. Using an HLM model to measure differentials in returns by major, Rumberger and Thomas (1993) find that education, social sciences, and humanities yield the lowest earnings. Engineering and health majors have the highest earnings followed by students who studied science, math and business. In health and engineering, females experience an even greater differential than men. This finding holds true in COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 30 a more recent study that reveals business, engineering, and health majors all continue to have a very large and positive effect on earnings (Thomas and Zhang, 2005a). Unlike most other studies on returns by college major, Arcidiacono (2004) studied factors that drive student choice in selecting a major. Although other studies do consider selection into particular schools, no other at this time accounted for selection bias into fields of study. He found that, once selection is controlled for, there are still much larger financial returns to majoring in business and natural sciences as compared to other majors, implying that certain fields are likely to be more lucrative than others regardless of the types of students who choose to enter them. To try and further understand sorting between majors, Arcidiacono, Hotz, and Kang (2012) collected student responses regarding their expected earnings for both their selected major and for other majors. Calculations indicate that better estimates of returns by major for Duke students (those surveyed in the sample) specifically would lead to 7.8% of students changing their major. Their findings also indicate the importance of students' understanding of what the returns for a major are specific to the school they are attending. Perhaps James, Alsalam, Conaty, and To (1989) summarize it best: "...while sending your child to Harvard appears to be a good investment, sending him to your local state university to major in Engineering, to take lots of math, and preferably to attain a high GPA, is an even better private investment" (p. 251-2). Essentially, what you study and learn while in college is more important than where you go. Gender. College selectivity has a greater impact on both graduation rates (Smith, 2013) and earnings (Black & Smith, 2004) for men than women. The labor market returns to attending a high-quality college instead of a low-quality college are estimated to be between 11% and 12% for men while female earnings only increase by 7.5% (Black & Smith). Rhumberger and Thomass (1993) findings also indicate that attending a more selective college increased earnings COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 31 for both men and women. However, their calculations yield increases of 4% for women and 3% for men per 100 point increase of a schools average SAT score. Using four individual measures of college quality, Long (2008) found that combined overall quality was the most important factor for increased hourly wages early in a students career. Findings also implied that higher net tuition yields greater hourly wages for men but most of the results on the impact for women are insignificant. Gender differentials vary by type of school as well. Males have a greater return than females for attending private schools (Rumberger & Thomas, 1993) and universities that grant graduate degrees whereas females earn more if they go to specialized institutions (Monks, 2000). Both men and women experience higher earnings differentials if they attend a graduate degree granting university rather than a liberal arts school although the differential is even greater for men. GPA has a significant impact on salary for females but not males. Even once major and job are controlled for, women still earn less than men (Rumberger & Thomas, 1993). Human capital and occupational crowding theories posit that women are more likely to choose female occupations (Thomas & Zhang, 2005a). Because such occupations are fewer in number and there is a surplus of women who want to work them, it depresses womens wages, perhaps leading to gender differentials in returns to higher education. This is evident in the growth of the male/female earnings differential from 6% to 11% in just three years between 1994 and 1997 and according to the most recent findings (Smith, 2013), remains true today (Thomas & Zhang, 2005a). Socioeconomic (SES) Status. Overall, the positive returns to education are significant for students of low socioeconomic backgrounds (Long, 2010). Dale and Krueger (2002) find that students with income in the bottom percentile have an 8% return for choosing a more selective college with a 200 point higher average SAT score. Selectivity appears to have no impact on COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 32 earnings for students from families with mean income. One thing to consider is that students who go to more expensive schools may have higher levels of family wealth so, if not properly controlled for, studies that look at how tuition impacts earnings may also be factoring in financial background. Long (2010) finds a significant impact of college quality on the likelihood of graduating with a bachelors degree for low-SES students, an effect that has increased over time. Surprisingly, college quality decreases voter turnout for all demographic groups between the 1982 and 1992 high school graduating cohorts, a finding that was significant for mid-SES students. Over time, the impacts of college quality on waiting to have children has gone up for mid and high-SES groups and increases the likelihood that high-SES students will delay marriage. The finding that students from less-elite backgrounds experience greater returns from an elite college compared to students from elite backgrounds is evident not only right after college but also in mid and late career analyses (Brand & Halaby, 2006). Findings imply that students who attend non-elite colleges likely would have had the same labor market returns if they had gone to the elite school as students who did attend elite colleges. At the mid-career level, there appears to be no significant benefit to attending an elite college. Late-career findings are not as clear; regression calculations indicate that returns are greater in late careers as a result of attending an elite college but this is not consistent across all of their different calculations. The authors acknowledge significant limitations to their findings including the fact that their sample is small and that the changing nature of education and the labor market may limit the ability to generalize findings for their sample of 1957, male high school graduates. Additionally, college entrance has become more competitive as indicated by overall increases in SAT entrance scores. COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 33 School Type. Although the degree of impact varies, numerous studies to date have demonstrated higher returns to private postsecondary education than public postsecondary education (Monks, 2000; Behrman, Rosenzweig, & Taubman, 1996; Brewer, Eide, & Ehrenberg, 1999). Monks finds that graduates of private schools earn more than graduates of public schools, although the evidence is weak and the differential only 4.5%. According to Brewer et al. (1999), the differentiation between public and private school returns may be based on quality. They find that, in all cases, attending a selective private institution has a statistically significant wage premium increase as compared to bottom-tier public schools. However, there is weak evidence on whether top public schools have the same results. Behrman et al. (1996) take the research a step further and differentiate earnings between types of public and private schools compared to high school graduates. Their findings indicate that graduates of large, public state colleges earn 20.3% more than high school graduates while graduates of large, public state research universities earn 31.7% more than high school graduates. Once selectivity is controlled for, the public research university is considered to have a greater return because the price for the two is relatively similar. Wellesley, classified as a private liberal arts school, yields returns of 40.3% greater than workers with only a high school diploma. Graduates from the University of Pennsylvania (Penn), a large, private research university, experience returns that are as large as 56.6% greater than high school graduates. Explanations for these large differences include the small size of Wellesley, and the number of highly paid faculty and graduate programs, which likely attract higher quality faculty, at Penn. In comparing Wellesley to Michigan, a public- private comparison, the authors explain that because Wellesley is more expensive, the greater returns just barely offset the higher cost of education. Monks finds that students from graduate degree granting and specialized schools earned more than those from liberal arts schools at rates COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 34 of 14% and 19%, respectively. Another interesting finding about public and private school differentials is that increased tuitions at private schools yield greater income returns for graduates than higher tuition rates at public schools (Zhang, 2005b). Another study done on rate of return to an elite education finds that this return, although previously higher for private institutions, has decreased in comparison to public education (Fox, 1993). Fox predicts that this return to private education will continue to fall in the following years but no studies to date have found this to be true. Monk's (2000) research presents interesting findings at the intersection of race and school type. He found that white graduates of public schools earned less than white graduates of private schools, similar to the findings mentioned above. However, while Monks found that white students are rewarded with a greater return to attending a private school than a public school, returns for non-white students do not differ significantly between the two. The one exception to this is for non-white, female graduates of competitive, private, liberal arts schools, who experience an increase in returns. Finally, Monkss results indicate that non-white graduates of specialized schools earn more than white graduates of specialized schools. For-profit education. For-profits are a growing area of focus when examining returns to education (Cellini and Chaudhary 2011, 2012; Chung, 2008, 2012; Deming, Goldin, & Katz, 2013; Lang & Weinstein, 2012; Denise, 2012; Grubb, 1993). Cellini and Chaudhary (2012) conduct one of the most recent studies on the returns to for profit education using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) 1997. They control for unobservable student characteristics using an individual fixed effects model. Results indicate that when employed, graduates of for-profit colleges earn 10% more than students with only a high school diploma. When calculated in terms of annual returns per year invested in education though, earnings are COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 35 only 4% greater for for-profit students. Some of their estimates do imply that this could be as great as 8% since these students are more likely to be employed than students with no education beyond high school. In comparison to community college students, for-profit students generally experience the same earnings in the labor market. However, graduates of community college associates programs see slightly higher returns and graduates of four-year bachelors programs see significantly greater returns. It is difficult to say why students would continue to choose for- profit programs if they have similar labor market outcomes to community colleges but are far more costly. One possible explanation is that for-profits offer something different that community colleges cannot provide. Another suggested explanation is that for-profit advertisers and recruiters market aggressively to students to get them to attend for-profits. As is the case with four year colleges, selection bias also poses an issue when measuring for-profit outcomes. For instance, the authors find that students who complete for-profit programs earn 20% more than those who begin but do not complete a degree. The authors acknowledge that they may not fully account for pre-existing characteristics that possibly led the students to drop out that also make them less likely to get hired. In other words, endogeneity may not be fully controlled for and therefore the finding should be interpreted carefully. For-profit education is an area that should be explored in future research. Parental Characteristics. Dale and Krueger (2011) find that although there is little to no increase in returns by college selectivity overall after controlling for unobserved student characteristics, there are positive effects for specific demographic groups. They found that minority students and those from families where the parents have less education, still experience large gains by going to a more selective college even after the quality of the school based on SAT score has been controlled for. They find that students with parents who averaged less than COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 36 16 years of completed education experience greater returns than students whose parents had more education. A suggested explanation for this phenomenon is that children of parents with less education may be presented with networking opportunities at more selective schools that they would not have otherwise had whereas it may not make as much of a difference for students from more advantaged backgrounds. Conclusion This review intends to summarize the literature on various aspects of returns to college and how they apply to different groups of students. A large body of this literature shows that quality has an impact on student outcomes, especially those of minority status. This largely depends on the instrument used to measure quality, the sample population, and the methods, particularly the ability to control for selection bias. No "one-size-fits-all" ranking is possible for measuring returns to college quality (Dale & Krueger, 2002). It is important that students consider the fit between their individual and institutional characteristics when deciding what type of higher education to pursue. Fit lays the groundwork for a successful future of students, particularly in their ability to gain employment after college. Future research is needed to understand how this applies to groups of students who are found to benefit the most from an education of higher quality as they enter the labor market. A recommended direction is to analyze how minority students are affected by the quality of education they receive in the context of employability using a resume audit study.
COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 37
Appendix A Resume Audit Study Methods
Derous, E., & Ryan, A. M. (2012) Study done on screening of resumes and differences between majority (Dutch) and minority (Arab) ethnic groups. Used real resumes from job search website as caliber (experience, education, etc.) and to guide resume write-ups. Paired resumes and had participants look at how equivalent each resume was. Ended up with eight different resumes. Responded to 150 job advertisements and sent four resumes to each job. Only counted those jobs where a response (positive or negative) was received. Yielded 66% response rate Drydakis (2009) Correspondence test in Greece to study the impact of homosexuality on the likelihood of being asked to return for a job interview. Participants were identified as homoesesual by a line in their resume that read: "member volunteer in the Athenian Homosexual Community" (p. 366) while straight applicants had no sexual orientation identifiers. The resume also indicated volunteer experience in other, non-sexual-orientation related groups as well as a date to imply that participation in the Athenian Homosexual Community had ended. Applied to jobs that were seeking a 40 hour/week employee. Other than experiences to imply sexual orientation, the resumes were designed to appear as similar as possible including age, gender, marriage status, military participation, level of education, and work experience. Sent both resumes to each job advertisement within a day of each other. Bertrand and Mullainathan (2003) Responded to help wanted ads in Boston and Chicago Newspapers. Used actual job seeker resumes but changed them enough so that they did not compromise the owner but were still believable. They got these resumes from websites that showed resumes of job seekers. Only used resumes that were posted at least six months prior. Limited search to: sales, administrative support, clerical services, and customer services. Switched boston and COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 38 chicago resumes and used the same phone number on all resumes to track callbacks. Created four email address for each but made them generic. Used fictitious street addresses. Found that, in order to receive a phone call from an employer, the researchers job applicants with white names had to submit approximately 10 resumes while those with african american names had to submit 15. Ghayad (2013) Submitted 3360 fictitious resumes to 600 job advertisements at specific firms in four industries (Financial Activities, Wholesale and retail trade, Professional and Business Services, and Education and Health Services and then within these administrative, sales, or professional positions). Used the Current Population Survey to group job applications into those four broad categories. Sent applications all over the U.S. and used randomized credentials. Applicants were made to appear relatively young with six years of experience beyond college. Unemployment/employment varied randomly. Randomized previous experience so that some had worked in same the field as the employer. Had a set of e-mail addresses to track employer responses on a rolling basis. Once they found a job opening, resumes were randomly selected from the resume bank and sent to the employer over a two day period Half of the resumes were sent places where they had similar experience and half where it was different. All profiles were males with names that did not imply ethnicity or race. No age included but implied six years of work since graduation. Each resume had two previous jobs listed with three years spent at each. Few job advertisements had requirements for specific skills like SAS but they were always added when required. They used schools that were randomly selected from the same tier (chose this group based on an online survey that says which schools companies think are the most employable graduates but does not say what the site was). Always had minimum requirements for the position. Layouts were randomized so that no two looked too much alike. Interview requests tracked by matching employer ID with originally submitted resume with a job number assigned to each position considered. Employers that declined applicants were briefed about the study. Those that never replied were informed six months after the resumes were sent. Resumes were sent between August and December. Identify the limitation that they can only test so far as whether or not an interview was granted, not the actual hire. Used templates from Lahey and Beasley (2009) software. Mixed and matched characteristics from real resumes found on the web to create new ones. Hiemstra (2013) Used resumes of 200 recent graduates from campus career counselors. Used a wide variety of majors and invited 40 Human Resources recruiters and experts in resume and screening to compare resumes. Recruiters ranged from a variety of disciplines (business, recruiting agencies). They were told that they were part of a study to rate resumes. Each recruiter received ten resumes to rate based on resume characteristics (five Western sounding names and five non-Western sounding) along with a ten item questionnaire on COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 39 themselves. The rating forms included a variety of questions (i.e. expertise in foreign language). They followed up with a hiring scenario. Johnson and Lahey (2011) Used a computer database with real resume information to generate 8,000 fictitious resumes. They did not include any resumes that indicated an applicant went to a four-year college. Johnson and Lahey controlled for gender and possibly other characteristics by limiting all names to either Mary E. Smith or Linda Jones. All applicants ranged in age from 35-62 and had at least ten years of experience. Sent two resumes to each of 3,996 job openings and coded results by whether or not the applicant was asked to interview. Kroft, Lange, & Notowigdo (2013), Study on the impact of the length of unemployment on ability to get a job through a resume audit study. Study follows Betrand & Mullainathan, and Lahey on how to generate fictitious resumes and find postings. Collected 1,200 real resumes from online job boards to inform design (ie. how to provide dates of employment). In total, created ten resume templates and selected four to send to employers. Once a resume was used, it was not put back into the pile to ensure that the the same resume was not sent to a single job more than once. Work histories were constructed from the sample of real resumes collected. Applied to 3,000 job postings using 12,000 resumes. Received 13% response rate. Used a large online job board to send resumes to the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in the country. Assigned MSA and job type to a research assistant to keep up with sending out resumes. Restricted jobs to those that had no advanced degree required and no independent outside sales positions. Sent all resumes through a job board and never emailed to employers directly. Lahey and Beasley (2009), Resume audit studies performed using a computer-generated program that helps to resolve the issue of template bias (creates and matches resumes). Experimenter chooses which job to apply for and program generates a resume, including indicator of group membership, without the input of the researcher. The program also creates and stores the characteristics and date of the resume. The program had 2 parts: (1) Web-based outline created by experimenter that allows researcher to define and input characteristics of the resume; (2) Then uses information from the experimenter-defined characteristics to generate and record resume info. Also produces cover letters. Outline can be set up to match resumes for paired audits and multiple matched resumes can be sent. Program saves choices made in creating a resume which can be re-created in later sessions.
*Program can be obtained through author (jlahey@nber.org). Nuemark (2010) Following Heckman and Siegelman's commentary on the inability to control for unobserved variability between applicants, Neumark identifies a method that can still generate accurate results. He then applies that method to Bertrand and Mullainathan's (2004) study to not only confirm but also COLLEGE QUALITY AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 40 strengthen their findings on the presence of racial discrimination towards African American's in the labor market. He explains that the proposed method can also be utilized in future audit studies by intentionally creating different resumes rather than trying to make them all identical except for a single variable. Nguyen, Allen, & Godkin (2006) Used a sample of undergraduate business majors who had some type of experience in a previous position where they reviewed resumes. Seek to examine the role that social capital plays in hiring decisions using applicants personal connections with employers. Use resume content to indicate human capital in the form of major, GPA, and work experience. Gave participants resumes and hiring scenarios and had them rank, on a scale of one to five, how likely they were to interview the candidate and how likely they were to offer them a job.
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