The rise of Modi

In the 2009 elections, only two per cent of the respondents referred to Narendra Modi when
asked who they would like to see as their next Prime Minister. In 201, soon after his declaration
as the head of the campai!n committee, the support rose to 19 per cent. "fter the #$P announced
that he was their prime ministerial nominee, o%er one&thirds of the respondents mentioned his
name. It is also rele%ant to note that Mr. Modi has maintained a clear 20 percenta!e point
ad%anta!e o%er Mr. 'andhi since 201. "lso, in 12 (tates where the #$P did exceptionally well,
the support for Mr. Modi as Prime Minister was much hi!her than the national a%era!e.
)he post&poll sur%ey also asked if people would %ote for the #$P e%en if Mr. Modi was not the
prime ministerial candidate. "round one&fourth of those who %oted for the #$P said they would
ha%e chan!ed their %ote in such a scenario. )his was si!nificantly hi!her in (tates where the
party did well. )he response to this *uestion merits detailed scrutiny, especially amon! #$P
supporters. In +arnataka, six of e%ery 10 of those who %oted for the #$P stated that if Mr. Modi
was not the prime ministerial candidate, they would ha%e chan!ed their party choice. In #ihar
and ,a-asthan, four of e%ery ten respondents took this stand. .%en in (tates like )amil Nadu and
/est #en!al where the #$P expanded its presence, a si!nificant chunk of those who %oted for
the party took the same stand.
)he post&poll sur%ey asked a series of *uestions on who the respondent would pick as his0her
leader if asked to choose from amon! the top leaders of political parties, keepin! in mind critical
leadership *ualities. No choice of names was !i%en1 it was left to the respondents to name a
leader. )he leadership *ualities included concern for people, trustworthiness, !ettin! thin!s done,
takin! other leaders alon! and experience. 2n all fi%e indicators, four of e%ery 10 respondents
mentioned Mr. Modi3s name. Mr. 'andhi was 4ehind on all indicators 4y more than 25
percenta!e points. (imilarly, when a set of *uestions was raised on which leader was 4est suited
to deal with issues such as national de%elopment, price rise, controllin! corruption, national
security, and the upliftment of 6alits, close to four of e%ery 10 respondents mentioned Mr.
Modi3s name.
It would 4e difficult to concede that this was a Presidential&style race as only one party
announced its prime ministerial candidate. )he #$P3s %ictory had much to do with a well&
planned leader&dri%en campai!n 4ut it also had to do with an uninspirin! and ineffecti%e rulin!
coalition and leadership.
7Sandeep Shastri is Pro-vice-chancellor, Jain University, Bangalore.)
Also read
8i!her turnout in youth %ote
+eywords9 National .lection (tudy 201:, ;ok (a4ha elections
results, #$P, <on!ress, ;okniti, election sur%ey, election studies, political mandate, %oter
turnout, Naredra Modi, Modi wa%e
=iew <omments 79>
,.;").6 N./(
Higher turnout in youth voteMay 28, 2014
Does corruption influence voter choice?May 2, 2014
The i!portance of high turnoutMay 2, 2014
"egional parties #in favour in divided Andhra $radeshMay 2%, 2014
&ducated, ur'an voters floc(ed to )*$ in M$May 2%, 2014
Delhi+ AA$,s de'acle scripted )*$,s clean s#eepMay 2%, 2014
"a-asthan+ Modi !a(es .Mission 2%, loo( easyMay 2%, 2014
The real star in $un-a' is AA$May 2%, 2014
/n 0hhattisgarh, )*$ 'uilds on success of 2001May 2%, 2014
2o influence of national issues in Ta!il 2aduMay 24, 2014
)uc(ing dou'le anti3incu!'ency in 4erala May 24, 2014
0ongress fails to i!press in 4arnata(a May 24, 2014
A ne# phase of the polityMay 22, 2014
A saffron s#eep in 5ttar $radesh May 26, 2014
)ihar+ interpreting the !assive !andateMay 26, 2014
*har(hand+ confir!ing the national trend May 26, 20