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ISBn-13: 9781932907377
publication date: January 2008
page count: 216
price: $24.95
published by michael Wiese productions
distributed by Ingram publisher Services
© 2007 michael Wiese productions
Table of Contents
Chapter 2. Context 4
iii
iv D i g i t a l M o v i e m a k i n g / BILL U PS
MOORE'S LAW
A calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 19,000
vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the
future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps
only weigh 1.5 tons.
- Popular Mechanics, March 1949.
10
MOORE'S LAW 11
Once back from Japan, the digital camera concept became an obses-
sion, every iteration getting smaller, with greater capacity and more
resolution. The first truly luggable (as opposed to portable) camera
system came off the benches in mid-1992.
It took the RGB signal directly off of the imaging chips and recorded
it in compressed 8bit; 4:1:1 to the hard drive using a prototype Video
Explorer videographic board custom made by my good friend, and
nerd savant, Brett Bilbrey (now at Apple).
Since we were going for quality as opposed to quantity, the drive
could only hold 23 seconds of video at a time. Still, we used it on
several jobs and kept on moving.
OK, it was incredibly dorky
looking, but it worked.
Who would believe that
in less than just a few
years even better resolu-
tion would be available
in a pocket-sized form-
factor?
Several years later I got
a call from someone at
the Academy of Television
Arts & Sciences, asking if I
knew that Avid was campaigning
for an Emmy. It seems they were
claiming that they had developed
the digital camcorder.
The author with the first digital camcorder.
They’d taken the same camera
head (now called the HL-76), updated the same basic design and
called it the CamCutter. I reminded them that there was a very nice
article in the August ’93 issue of their own Emmy Magazine, with a
lovely picture of me standing there holding my homemade digital
camcorder that predated the Avid claim by more than two years.
Never really heard much about it after that.
Back in 1989, when we shot that little “all-digital” show, we used a
new hard drive that could record data at an unbelievable 6Mb/sec.
My friends all thought that I had lost my mind. After all, what could
anyone possibly need with a gigabyte of storage?
Plug that into Moore’s law and we get a relative point of reference.
At $5,000 it was very expensive; at 24 pounds, it was very heavy;
and while a GB was considered quite large in 1989, by contemporary
standards it is very small. Add to that a transfer speed of 6Mb/sec and
you get a system that is quite literally pathetic by today’s standards.
D i g i t A L M O v i E M A k i n g / B i L L U P S MOORE'S LAW 13
Flash
Flashforward
forward1818years
years
and
and you
you can
can see
see the
the
effect
effectofofMoore’s
Moore’sLawLaw
everywhere.
everywhere.Price
Priceand
and
size
size have
have diminished
diminished
greatly
greatly while
while perfor-
perfor-
mance
mance and and capacity
capacity
have
haveincreased.
increased.
Today
Todaynearly
nearlyeveryone
everyone
has
has a a phone
phonethat
thatnot
not
only
onlyhas
hasenormous
enormousstor-
stor-
age
ageand
andcomputational
computational
power
power but but also
also takes
takes
pictures
pictures andand records
records
movies.
movies.
Plug
Plugthat
thatinto
intoMoore’s
Moore’sLaw and you’ll see why it is so important to
develop
Law anda you’ll
sound see
production
why it is methodology
so important to
regardless
develop aofsound
the price
produc-
or
size
tionofmethodology
your format. regardless of the price or size of your format.
InInanother
anotherfive
fiveororten
tenyears,
years,the
theonly
onlything
thingthat
thatwill
willseparate
separatemovie-
movie-
makers
makersfrom
fromthe theguy
guywith
witha anew
newphone
phoneisiscraft
craftand
andmethodology.
methodology.
IfIfyou
youwant
wanttotoknow
knowwhere
wheresomething
somethingdigital
digitalisisgoing,
going,look
lookatatwhere
where
ititwas
wasfive
fiveororten
tenyears
yearsago,
ago,look
lookatatwhere
whereititisisnow
nowand
andthen
thenplot
plotout
out
the
theprice,
price,size,
size,capacity
capacityand
andperformance
performancevectors.
vectors.
For
Forillustration,
illustration,ififthe
theautomobile
automobileindustry
industryperformed
performedatatthe
thesame
samelevel,
level,
today’s
today’sMercedes
Mercedessedan,sedan,which
whichinin1972
1972cost
costaround
around$10K,
$10K,would
wouldcost
cost
12
12cents,
cents,getget10,000
10,000MPG MPGandandtravel
travelnear
nearthe
thespeed
speedofoflight.
light.
With
With thethe industr
industry-wide
y-wide
acceptance
acceptanceofofdigital,
digital,thethemotion
motion
picture
pictureindstry
indstryhashasplugged
pluggedinto
intothat
that
formula.
formula.AsAsfast
fastasasthings
thingsare
arechang-
chang-
ing
ingnow,
now,the
thenext
nexttentenyears
yearsshould
shouldbebe
quite
quiteamazing.
amazing.
Now
NowthatthatMoore’s
Moore’sLaw Lawhashasbeen
beenrun-
run-
ning
ningamok
amokforfornearly
nearly4040years,
years,I’m
I’m
starting
startingtotonotice
noticea astrange
strangelittle
littlephe-
phe-
nomenon
nomenon that that wewe can
can call
call “Scotty’s
“Scotty’s
Observation”
Observation”for forlack
lackofofa abetter
bettername.
name.The
The
one
onefactor
factorthat
thatisismissing
missingfromfromMoore’s
Moore’slaw
lawisis
ergonomics.
ergonomics.
AtAtsome
somepoint
pointthings
thingsget
getsososmall
smallthat
thatthey
theybecome
become
awkward
awkwardand andthe
the“size”
“size”vector
vectorofofMoore’s
Moore’sLaw
Lawceases
ceases iTele-Phoneto-Cam?
iTele-Phoneto-Cam?
totobebegermane.
germane.~~Billups
Billups’07
’07
14 D i g i t al M o v i ema k i n g / B I L L U P S
VECTOR SCHMECTOR
How accurate is Moore’s Law? For those of you who might have the
first edition of this book (circa 1999) lying around, I invite you to
turn to page 216. For those of you who are just joining us, I’ll cut-
and-paste the page for you here.
One of the most common remarks with respect to that version of the
book was with respect to “outlandish” and “unfounded” visions of the
future that it proposed. It is with moderate humility that I mention
that they’ve all appeared on schedule.