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OECD/IEA 2010

World Energy Outlook 2010


Nobuo Tanaka
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Beijing, 17 November 2010
OECD/IEA 2010
The context: A time of unprecedented
uncertainty
The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over but
is the recovery sustainable?
Oil demand & supply are becoming less sensitive to price what
does this mean for future price movements ?
Natural gas markets are in the midst of a revolution will it
herald a golden era for gas?
Copenhagen Accord & G-20 subsidy reforms are key advances
but do they go far enough & will they be fully implemented ?
Emerging economies will shape the global energy future
where will their policy decisions lead us ?
OECD/IEA 2010
Overview of WEO-2010 scenarios
New Policies Scenario is the central scenario in WEO-2010
> assumes cautious implementation of recently announced
commitments & plans, even if yet to be formally adopted
> provides benchmark to assess achievements & limitations of recent
developments in climate & energy policy
Current Policies Scenario takes into consideration only those
policies that had been formally adopted by mid-2010
> equivalent to the Reference Scenario of past Outlooks
The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with the
goal of limiting increase in average temperature to 2
O
C
OECD/IEA 2010
International oil price assumptions
The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than
would otherwise be the case
Scenario
CO
2
price
in 2035
($/ tCO
2
)
International oil price
in 2035
($/bbl)
Effective oil price
in 2035
($/bbl)
Current Policies 42 in EU 135 152 in EU
New Policies 50 in OECD 113 134 in OECD
450 Scenario 120 in OECD 90 139 in OECD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20302035
D
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l
a
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s

p
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a
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(
2
0
0
9
)
Current Policies Scenario
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
M
t
o
e
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
World primary energy demand by fuel
in the New Policies Scenario
Fossil fuels maintain a central role in the primary energy mix in the New Policies
Scenario, but their share declines, from 81% in 2008 to 74% in 2035
Other renewables
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
WEO-2009 Total:
Reference Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
Recent policy commitments, if
implemented, would make a difference
Global energy use grows by 36% in 2008-2035, with the OECD share of world demand
falling from 44% today to 33% in 2035
World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
M
t
o
eRest of world
China
OECD
WEO-2009:
Reference Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
Other renewables
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
WEO-2009 Total:
Reference Scenario
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
M
t
o
e
2035
China primary energy demand by fuel
in the New Policies Scenario
Total primary energy demand in China grows at 2.1% per year on average in 2008-2035, an
overall increase of 75%
OECD/IEA 2010
Emerging economies dominate the
growth in demand for all fuels
Demand for all types of energy increases in non-OECD countries, while demand for
coal & oil declines in the OECD
Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008-2035
- 600 - 300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Mtoe
OECD
China
Rest of world
OECD/IEA 2010
Fossil-fuel subsidies are distorting price
signals
Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies amounted to $312 billion in 2009, down from
$558 billion in 2008, with the bulk of the fall due to lower international prices
Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by country, 2009
T
u
r
k
m
e
n
i
s
t
a
n
Electricity
(generated from
fossil fuels)
Gas
Oil
Coal
Additional
subsidy in 2008
I
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S
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20
40
60
80
100
OECD/IEA 2010
Booming demand for mobility in the
emerging economies drives up oil use
The global car fleet will continue to surge as more & more people in China & other
emerging economies buy a car, overshadowing modest growth in the OECD
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1980 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
China
Other non-OECD
United States
Other OECD
Passenger vehicles in the New Policies Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
m
b
/
d
Crude oil:
fields yet to be developed
Crude oil:
currently producing fields
Total crude oil
Oil production becomes less crude
Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas
liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus
World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario
Unconventional oil
Natural gas liquids
Crude oil:
fields yet to be found
OECD/IEA 2010
More oil from fewer producers
Production rises most in Saudi Arabia & Iraq, helping to push OPECs market share from
41% today to 52% by 2035, a level last seen prior to the first oil shock of 1973-1974
Incremental oil production by key country in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Algeria
Libya
Nigeria
Qatar
Iran
Kuwait
UAE
Venezuela
Canada
Kazakhstan
Brazil
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
mb/d
OPEC
Non-OPEC
OECD/IEA 2010
A golden age for gas?
Gas is set to play a key role in meeting the worlds energy needs
> demand rises by 44%, led by China & Middle East
Unconventional gas accounts for 35% of the increase in global
supply to 2035, with new non-US producers emerging
Gas glut will peak soon, but may dissipate only very slowly
The glut will keep pressure on gas exporters to move away from
oil-price indexation, notably in Europe
Lower prices could lead to stronger demand for gas, backing out
renewables & coal in power generation
OECD/IEA 2010
Coal remains the backbone of global
electricity generation
A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases
elsewhere, especially China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current coal-fired
capacity of the US, EU & Japan
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
T
W
h
China
India
Other non-OECD
OECD
Coal-fired electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
Renewables enter the mainstream.
The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector
where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035
Renewable primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
0 100 200 300 400 500
European Union
United States
China
Brazil
India
Africa
OECD Pacific
Mtoe
2008
2035
OECD/IEA 2010
.but only if there is enough
government support
Government support remains the key driver rising from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion
in 2035 but higher fossil-fuel prices & declining investment costs also spur growth
Annual global support for renewables in the New Policies Scenario
B
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d
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a
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s

(
2
0
0
9
)
Biofuels
Renewables-based
electricity
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
2007 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
OECD/IEA 2010
China becomes the market leader in
low-carbon technologies
Passenger car sales
Capacity additions
Chinas share of cumulative global additions to 2035 for selected technologies
Given the sheer scale of Chinas market, its push to expand the role of low-carbon energy
technologies is poised to play a key role in driving down costs, to the benefit of all countries
85 GW
335 GW
105 GW
0%
10%
20%
30%
Solar PV Wind Nuclear Electric &
plug-in hybrids
8.5 million
vehicles
OECD/IEA 2010
Caspian energy riches could enhance
global energy security
Kazakhstan drives an increase in Caspian oil production to 5.2 mb/d by 2035, while
Turkmenistan & Azerbaijan push up gas production to over 310 bcm
Caspian oil & gas outlook in the New Policies Scenario
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2009 2020 2035
m
b
/
d
Oil net exports Inland oil consumption
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2009 2020 2035
b
c
m
Gas net exports Inland gas consumption
OECD/IEA 2010
Number of people without access to electricity
(million)
Today, there are 1.4 billion people lacking access to electricity.
Based on current trends, 1.2 billion people or 15% of the worlds population
will still lack access in 2030
OECD/IEA 2010
The 450 Scenario:
A roadmap from 3.5C to 2C
The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway consistent with
limiting the increase in temperature to 2C
Assumes vigorous implementation of Copenhagen Accord
pledges to 2020 & much stronger action thereafter
The failure of the Copenhagen Accord pledges:
> As many lack transparency, there is 3.9 Gt of uncertainty over the
level of abatement pledged to 2020
> As many lack ambition, the cost of achieving the 2 C goal has
increased by $1 trillion in 2010-2030 compared with WEO-2009
OECD/IEA 2010
In the 450 Scenario, compared with the Current Policies Scenario, efficiency measures
provide 53% of the necessary abatement, but renewables, CCS & nuclear are also crucial
World energy-related CO2 emission savings by technology in the
450 Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario
20
25
30
35
40
45
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
G
t
Efficiency 53%
Renewables 21%
Biofuels 3%
Nuclear 9%
CCS 15%
Share of cumulative abatement
between 2010-2035
42.6 Gt
21.7 Gt
450 Scenario
20.9 Gt
Current Policies
Scenario
The 450 Scenario:
Abatement by technology
OECD/IEA 2010
The 450 Scenario:
Abatement by technology
In moving from the New Policies Scenario to the 450 Scenario, more expensive abatement
options such as CCS play a growing role
World energy-related CO2 emission savings by technology in the
450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario
20
25
30
35
40
45
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
G
t
Efficiency 50%
Renewables 18%
Biofuels 4%
Nuclear 9%
CCS 20%
Share of cumulative abatement
between 2010-2035
42.6 Gt
35.4 Gt
21.7 Gt
Current Policies
Scenario
450 Scenario
New Policies
Scenario
13.7 Gt
7.1 Gt
OECD/IEA 2010
In the 450 Scenario, compared with the Current Policies Scenario, China & the US account
for 48% of the cumulative emission abatement that is needed in 2010-2035
World energy-related CO2 emission savings by country in the 450 Scenario
relative to the Current Policies Scenario
20
25
30
35
40
45
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
G
t
China 33%
United States 15%
European Union 9%
India 8%
Middle East 5%
Russia 3%
Rest of world 24%
Share of cumulative abatement
between 2010-2035
Japan 3%
42.6 Gt
21.7 Gt
Current Policies
Scenario
450 Scenario
20.9 Gt
The 450 Scenario:
Abatement by country
OECD/IEA 2010
Achieving the 2C goal will require rapid
decarbonisation of global energy
Carbon intensity would have to fall at twice the rate of 1990-2008 in the period 2008-2020
& almost four times faster in 2020-2035
Average annual change in CO
2
intensity in the 450 scenario
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1990-2008 2008-2020 2020-2035
A four-fold
increase needed
OECD/IEA 2010
A fundamental change is needed in
power generation
Low-carbon technologies account for over three-quarters of global power generation by
2035 in the 450 Scenario, a four-fold increase on today
Share of world electricity generation by type and scenario
Additional low-carbon generation
in 450 Scenario
Low-carbon generation in the NPS
Fossil-fuel fired generation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
in the 450 Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
and also in transport
Plug-in hybrids & electric vehicles reach 39% of light-duty vehicle sales by 2035, making a
big contribution to CO
2
abatement, thanks to a major decarbonisation of the power sector
Sales of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles in the 450 Scenario
CO
2
intensity in
power generation
(right axis)
Electric vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
& CO2 intensity of the power sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
G
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p
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10
20
30
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50
60
70
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
M
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i
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n
OECD/IEA 2010
Will peak oil be a guest or the spectre
at the feast?
Oil demand peaks at 88 mb/d before 2020 & falls to 81 mb/d in 2035, with a plunge in
OECD demand more than offsetting continuing growth in non-OECD demand
Oil demand
World demand in
450 Scenario
Inter-regional
(bunkers)
Other non-OECD
India
China
OECD
Right axis:
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
m
b
/
d
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
m
b
/
d
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16 World demand in
New Policies Scenario
Peak demand
in the 450 Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
Combating climate change will bring
economic benefits as well as costs
In the 450 Scenario, annual spending on oil imports in 2035 by the five largest importers is
around $560 billion, or one-third, lower than in the New Policies Scenario
Oil-import bills as share of GDP in selected countries
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
European
Union
United
States
Japan China India
1980
2008
2009
2035: New Policies Scenario
2035: 450 Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
China in the 450 Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
China abatement in the 450 Scenario
In the 450 Scenario, compared with the Current Policies Scenario, efficiency measures
account for 53% of Chinas abatement in 2010-2035
China energy-related CO2 emission savings in the 450 Scenario
relative to the Current Policies Scenario
Efficiency 53%
Renewables 22%
Biofuels 1%
Nuclear 8%
CCS 16%
Share of cumulative abatement
between 2010-2035
12.6 Gt
5.2 Gt
7.4 Gt
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
G
t
Current Policies
Scenario
450 Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
China abatement in the 450 Scenario
In moving from the New Policies Scenario to the 450 Scenario, China starts to rely more on
CCS as room for further abatement from lower-cost options becomes limited
China energy-related CO2 emission savings in the 450 Scenario
relative to the New Policies Scenario
Efficiency 50%
Renewables 18%
Biofuels 1%
Nuclear 8%
CCS 23%
Share of cumulative abatement
between 2010-2035
12.6 Gt
5.2 Gt
5.0 Gt
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
G
t
Current Policies
Scenario
450 Scenario
10.1 Gt
2.4 Gt
New Policies
Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
Low-carbon technologies account for 78% of Chinas power generation by 2035 in the 450
Scenario, up from 19% today
Share of China electricity generation by type and scenario
Additional low-carbon generation
in 450 Scenario
Low-carbon generation in the NPS
Fossil-fuel fired generation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
in the 450 Scenario
Power generation in China
in the 450 Scenario
OECD/IEA 2010
Sales of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles in the 450 Scenario
CO
2
intensity in
power generation
(right axis)
Electric vehicles
Plug-in hybrids
& CO2 intensity of the power sector in China
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
M
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100
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400
500
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800
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Transport in China in the 450 Scenario
In China, plug-in hybrids & electric vehicles reach 45%
of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2035
OECD/IEA 2010
Summary & conclusions
Recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well
short of what is needed for a secure & sustainable energy future
Lack of ambition in Copenhagen has increased the cost of
achieving the 2C goal & made it less likely to happen
> Unless commitments are fully implemented by 2020, it will be all but
impossible to achieve the goal
The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring
lower international prices than would otherwise be the case
Renewables are entering the mainstream, but long-term
support is needed to boost their competitiveness
Getting the prices right, by phasing-out fossil-fuel subsidies, is
the single most effective measure to cut energy demand
OECD/IEA 2010
Implications for China
China's role in global energy is set to expand & its policies will
significantly impact global energy trends & prospects for limiting
climate change
A golden age of gas led by China in the interest of diversifying the
fuel mix can contribute greatly to reducing CO2 and other emissions
Continued energy pricing reforms in China is a triple-win for
enhancing energy security, reducing emissions & immediate
economic gains
China's role as leader in developing, manufacturing & deploying low-
carbon technologies can drive down costs, to the benefits of all
countries
Growing interconnectedness & China's increasing weight in the
energy market links its energy security to global energy security
Energy Prices in Europe
Past, Present & Future
www.energy.eu

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