From Leave-ability to Livability

The advantages and implications of removing a highway in Dallas

IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Case Studies Where else?
Other cities currently in process of planning intra-city freeway removal from their downtown:
Baltimore,
Buffalo,
New Orleans,
Oklahoma City,
Seattle
New York City again
San Francisco again
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Fighting Highways
What if Robert Moses had been successful implementing his full vision for Manhattan?
What if TxDOT had not been fought by Dallas on every single freeway?
Manhattan
Dallas
Financial
District
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Inter-city(between) vs Intra-city(within)Highways
Jane Jacobs wrote that you need big infrastructure for big destinations, small networks for small destinations.
1955 highway plan for dallas
(There was no 345, but we were drunk on free federal money)
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
A 1960 plan actually proposed 75/45 as a
context sensitive boulevard through downtown
Capacity was met by the highly interconnected
network of streets. Didnt harm the Destination it
was delivering people to.
Would we ever
consider bulldozing
all of this today?
(Equivalent of 54 city blocks)
Critique of Inner-city
Highways as Efficient Urban
Transportation
Three primary origin-destinations
competing for the same space at the
same time: Congestion
1. Long Haul/Interstate
2. Long Commute (15+ Miles)
3. Short Commute
Is 345 the best way to move this traffic?
Highways as Disconnection
Highways immediately disconnect two sides
More perniciously, is the long-term linear
disconnection as the market adapts.
From 02-11, average commute length from
Southern half of Dallas County increased 17%.
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX Peak Time vs
Imaginary Optimal
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
How that would look
in Dallas
Avg Peak Time Speed: 27 mph.
Is that much better than 25 mph
and multiplicity of route choice
on high quality, safe urban
boulevards?
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Designing an Optimal
City
One of Highest Hwy Lane Miles per
Capita in Country
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Making Urban Links
183,000 cars below capacity
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Growing Downtown
Let Many travel lanes and Modes do
the job of 8 highway lanes
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Centerpieces of New
Walkable Nhoods
Traffic Mitigation
When first closing the Central
Freeway in San Francisco, CalTrans
traffic planners warned gridlock
would be:
Historic
Serious
Horrendous
They were all wrong and couldnt
figure out why.
Where does the traffic go?
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Majority of traffic is not
coming to or leaving
downtown
Only 1/4
th
of the traffic, or ~40,000 cars are
exiting or entering from downtown adjacent
access points
Another 11,000 are using Cesar Chavez
beneath, but these are either local trips or
among the exit/entrance ramp counts
3/4
th
of the traffic are regional trips moving
from highway to highway.
Where does the traffic go? 160,000+ vehicles/day
Four Places: Regional, Local, Short-term, Long-term
Regional traffic by-passing downtown anyways reroutes to Loop 12, 635, and 190
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Much of this traffic, you dont
want near downtown, polluting
the air and causing undo
congestion.
If its not going TO downtown,
It should stay OUT of downtown
Westside Highway Example 75
Where does the traffic go?
Four Places: Regional, Local, Short-term, Long-term
Local traffic means value and filters onto local streets. Dont fear traffic, diffuse it & discipline it.
The grid disperses the bad (congestion) and concentrates the good (walkable centers and business clusters)
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Peak and Haskell are
currently one-way couplets
designed to carry upwards of
44,000 vehicles per day.
Today, they carry on average
7-10,000.
They are badly under capacity
and could use the increased
energy.
Investors and Developers look
at traffic counts, the
movement and visibility of
sites.
Spin-off benefit of this plan is
potential revitalization of
peak/Haskell corridors
Funnel that traffic into one
highway, all you get is parking
lots and drive-thrus
The state of disrepair on Peak & Haskell.
Near East Dallas Grid
Is 252,000 cars per day
Under its built capacity
Where does the traffic go?
Four Places: Regional, Local, Short-term, Long-term
Increased capacity = INDUCED demand.
10% new capacity sees immediate 40% increase in total demand, all 100% additional capacity fills within 10 years,
VMT increases as highway capacity increases, and for every intra-city freeway a city loses 18% of its population.
Reduced highway capacity = REDUCED Demand. 25% vehicular traffic just goes away. People adapt.
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Los Angeles has been
periodically shutting the
405 freeway every
weekend for
reconstruction.
Due to the reaction and
awareness of the event
and similar freeway
closures like it, studies
find that the traffic
doesnt simply re-route,
but on average 25% just
disappears onto different
forms of transportation,
carpools, or
telecommuting
Highway capacity
reductions in LA have
seen demand drops up to
80 miles away
Where does the traffic go?
Four Places: Regional, Local, Short-term, Long-term
By creating housing closer to downtown and nearby amenities, combined with local transit options and complete streets, well have 25,000
people moving back to downtown with increased transportation options and proximity. In terms of commuting, thats 50,000 less highway
trips per day. Repositioning infrastructure, reorients the housing market. New housing means increased stability and more local businesses.
AzDOT study found less congestion around higher intensity land uses. Fighting congestion thru increased highway capacity, is fighting the
nature of the city, to bring people together for social and economic exchange. The result is anti-city, Detroit.
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Safety
The Most Basic Requirement for Cities is to provide Safety and Security
Fatalities follow high speed traffic. TX-30 is the 2
nd
deadliest US Congressional District for traffic fatalities nationwide, with 289.
Copenhagen has a goal of zero traffic fatalities in a year. Down from 5 in 2010. Chicago has implemented a similar goal for 2022.
Pedestrian Fatalities per Year:
NYC: 170 Dallas: 72
However, based on number of pedestrians, there is a 51.41x greater chance of a pedestrian being killed in Dallas.
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
USDOT VMT Projections
Against All Evidence
And so we project upward trends of VMT
despite all evidence to the contrary because
we correlate increased driving with
increased economic growth
but what about waste?
Theory for Why
Correlation =/= Causation on a
national trendline
Weve wrongly equated driving
more with increased GDP.
Two Probs
VMTs are trending down
Despite the 2008 recession, GDP is rising
again while no longer tethered to VMT
Two Probs
Find me the pattern on City by City???
If anythingslight negative correlation
between driving and GDP
Places that Drive moreSpend More
to do so
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Houston: 95% of trips by motor vehicle;
14% of metro GDP spent on transpo.
Copenhagen: 54%/4%.
10% gap = waste.
The more a city drives, the more it wastes. Every trip is a
punitive tax, simply to participate in the local economy.
Is less commerce happening? No. People will always still
meet their wants and needs. Its the buildings, uses, and
demand for proximity that relocalizes.
$3.87 Billion could stay in local economy if of Dallas
households found it convenient and economical to give
up one car.
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Fear of Congestion
Congestion costs the country $120 billion each year.
That seems like a big number.
Costs of congestion per capita
Source: Todd Litman, VTPI
but what if we add up the costs of car dependence?
$400
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Defining Congestion
There is good and bad kind, like cholesterol. Social and
economic exchange is predicated on people coming together.
When everybody is in cars funneled to certain arterials and
highways, reducing modal and route choice, while degrading
the quality of place, it is the bad kind.
City is the platform, but were building Anti-City.
This number is constant across all cities.
The price of doing business.
$2 Trillion/Year in Waste
We can reduce this number by diminishing car-
dependence and reducing over-built, wasteful
Infrastructural burden.
METROPOLITAN HIGHWAY
CAPACITY (LANE MILES)
PER CAPITA
Charting cities based on total population and
total highway infrastructure yields a very
strong, direct correlation
Nearly all cities exist on this straight line.
Have x amount of people, have y amount of
infrastructure
Then there are the severe outliers
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX What about that Capacity? Which cities have too much?
HIGHWAY LANE MILES TO
POPULATION DENSITY
Build More Roads, Population Disperses, Density Drops
The more high-speed infrastructure we buy in favor of
longer trips, the further everything gets from each other,
Population density drops.
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX More Highway Capacity = Lower Population density
VMTS PER CAPACITY
More roads = More Driving
As population disperses,
People are going to drive more.
It has effectively been subsidized and
engrained into the cultureas if we chose
it because we love our cars
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX More Highways + Lower Density = Driving More
and since we love our cars, were
eager to support highway
expansion/construction projects to
reduce congestion.
and the entropy continues
COMMUTING MODES:
NON-VEHICULAR
High rates of driving means:
High cost of individual transportation,
High cost to public sector for
infrastructure,
and various externalities
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX and lower use for alternative transportation
Investment w/o Return
Were spending more than ever on
highway expansion but travel time to
work hasnt changed.
People are driving less
and buying less cars.
The Hour Wide City
and neither does highway lane miles per
capita.
Were not reducing congestion, but
lengthening average trip length
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Population Density has no effect on average
commute times
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Diminishing returns of investment
PERIOD
NET RATE
OF RETURN
1949-1950 : 0.554
1960-1969 : 0.480
1970-1979 : 0.298
1980-1989 : 0.212
1990-2000 : 0.136
ROI for newly constructed highway capacity diminishes each year; approaches 0:1
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Via Prof David Levinson, Univ of Minnesota
Hwy lane miles per 100,000
Kansas City: 147.74
Dallas: 96.38;
Houston: 91.41
St. Louis: 67.54
Austin: 66.53
Detroit: 59.31;
Portland: 38.84;
Seattle: 37.27
Manhattan: 10.83
Stockholm: 13.72
Paris: 8.15;
Barcelona: 5.38
Vancouver: 3.13
London: 2.37;
CITY WITHIN THE
REGION
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX So? Infrastructure burden to Tax Base Imbalance
Dallas Bears the Burden of Infrastructure
For 6 million w/ a Tax Base of 1 million
Absorption
Need to capture more of the regional growth
Dfw growth vs Dallas growth (2000 2010)
DFW Metro grew by 1.21 million
5.16m to 6.37m 23.4% growth
City of Dallas grew by 9,236
1.188m to 1.197m 0.8% growth
Added fewest total people since 1880 when population jumped from 3,000 to 10,000
And less than 0.7% of regional population growth between 2000-2010
Historical populations
Census Pop. %
1860 678
1870 3,000 342.5%
1880 10,358 245.3%
1890 38,067 267.5%
1900 42,639 12.0%
1910 92,104 116.0%
1920 158,976 72.6%
1930 260,475 63.8%
1940 294,734 13.2%
1950 434,462 47.4%
1960 679,684 56.4%
1970 844,401 24.2%
1980 904,078 7.1%
1990 1,006,877 11.4%
2000 1,188,580 18.0%
2010 1,197,816 0.8%
[4][5]
The Lost Boom?
Census data on jobs and
incomes for 40 largest
urbanized counties:
Dallas county is 2
nd
worst
performing in terms of job
creation and wage increases
from 2002-2012.
Dallas, KC, and Detroit, all
have high lane miles/capita.
Were actively exporting
growth outside of the urban
area.
Highway expansion subsidizes
sprawl and disinvestment in
the core despite
demographics now favoring it.
We must design our cities to
cater to the market that
wants urbanism
Downtown is missing its growth goals
2006 study projected 13,500 residents by 2010.
Latest numbers show ~7,400
Only achieved 15% of projected growth.
Capturing Pent-up Demand
1.5% of Metroplex lives in walkable
neighborhood, 4.5% of the City
Recent Survey published by DMN:
68% wanted More Walkable Neighborhoods
and 77% of the 80 million Millennials (ages: ~18-
35) wish to live in walkable urban neighborhoods.
Case Studies
Case Studies Where else?
San Francisco - Embarcadero
Damaged in 89 loma prieto earthquake
Took down 1.2 miles
Carried 100,000 cars per day
Boulevard now carries 50,000 vehicles per day
Trolley carries 20,000 per day
Land value up 300%
75% increase in transit commute trips in the impact zone since
1990
54% increase in housing units in impact zone compared with 31%
increase in the control zones
The number of jobs increased 23% compared to 5.5% in city
Case Studies Where else?
New York West Side Highway
After 1973 collapse, repairs would cost
$88 million
Afterwards, 53% of vehicular traffic in
the area disappeared.
Majority of traffic was found to be
heading from New Jersey to New Jersey
Case Studies Where else?
Seoul - Cheonggye
8.5 mile section of elevated freeway buried
a stream
Cost $281 million or $33M per mile
Number of vehicles entering the area
decreased by 43%
Air Quality:
21% less tiny airborne particulate matter
No2 dropped 20%
BETX dropped 25% overall and 65% in
some areas
Reduced summer temps along corridor 8
degrees
125,000 visitors per weekend day. 50,000
per weekday
Added 113,000 new jobs along corridor
Long-term benefits expected to approach
$25 billion
Case Studies Where else?
Vancouver Never had them
City of Vancouver refused to allow
freeways entering the city
Maintained tangential non-disruptive
relationship
Downtown has no freeways, but twice the
vehicular capacity of a highway. Handles
70,000 cars/hour
The much derided decision was made in the
1960s.
Most Livable Cities Ranking:
Economists Intelligence Unit: 3
rd
Mercer: 5
th
Monocle (tilts toward arts/culture): 15
th
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
This is NOT an engineering problem
We can engineer any kind of city we want. Instead, this is an economic and political issue.
A City is a Complex Adaptive System.
Like any complex system, made of same
components:
PURPOSE -
CONNECTIONS -
ELEMENTS -
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX Aligning
Infrastructure
Policy & Design
to Vision
Vision & Policy
Infrastructure
Land Use & Market
Vision/Policy & Infrastructure Network
Designs must align so the real estate
market will deliver the kind of city you
want.
Inter-city vs Intra-city (inner-city)Highways
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Intra- or Inner-City, Disconnects Local Economies Inter-City, Links regional economies
The Funnel: Single Corridor handles increased capacity through cities by getting wider.
Sucks up all the energy from surrounding streets and neighborhoods, then areas decay.
Context Sensitive Design
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Urban - Grid Rural to Suburban
Suburban to Urban Transition
The Filter: Highway corridor narrows as it enters city allowing grid to handle increased capacity needs.
This diffuses the negative impacts of congestion while allowing for agglomeration economies, shortened trip lengths &
providing greater route choice and adaptability
THE VICIOUS CIRCLE:
Detroit Figure Ground
1916-94
Fabric already began to erode when population
reached zenith (1950s)
Cities, like complex systems, relationship to
surroundings is strongest based on proximity.
Compete more with suburbs than they do other
cities
Detroit Detroit Metro
1950: 1.85M 3.3M
2010: 0.77M 4.3M
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
VELOCITY vs. EFFICIENCY
Long trip infrastructure Disconnects & Disrupts Local Economies
FLOW vs FRICTION - World class cities have worked to not throw the baby out with the bathwater, by preventing and/or removing
highways from the cores of their cities.
The Key Question is do as many citizens as possible still have maximized accessibility, Local + Global Connectivity?
London Paris
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Champs Elysees moves 84,000 cars per day. Part of a complex network.
635 moves 250,000. Traffic is funneled towards, undermining choice and adaptability.
Champs Elysees also moves 500,000 pedestrians per day. In half the width, moves more than twice the people and
has 10 times the real estate value.
Champs Elysees, Paris I-635
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Disconnection Disperses the Center of Town
Every great city is a
unique expression of
itself. Provided its
designed for people.
Because a city is
fundamentally about
bringing people
together to facilitate
social and economic
exchange.
Whats the best Dallas
that Dallas can be?
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Center of Investment; focusing on the Human Scale
What it looks like
today
IH 345 Redevelopment Plan
Dallas, TX
Underdeveloped land and tax exempt property
Intra-city highways reduced tax-
base
By dispersing population and
economic activity
And added infrastructural
burden
To build requires heavy subsidy
and charity
Study Area
Total Study Area:
245 Acres
Existing Underdeveloped Land:
118.29 acres
Net Recaptured Right-of-Way:
63.93 acres
After reviewing every property in the area
Existing Improvements:
$19,906,970
Or $81,252.94/acre
(Less intense than most sprawl)
Yearly City Tax Revenue (2012):
$3,584,832.20
Economic Development
Total Study Area:
245 Acres
Projecting 95% absorption at 15-year build-out:
Projected New investment: $4,060,663,220 (204x greater)
Projected Tax Revenue (Per Year):
$110,043,972 (31x Greater)
One year of Tax Revenue from this plan builds a
modern streetcar line from West End to Lower
Greenville AND Union Station to Exposition.
Calculating at CityPlace FAR &
LoMac/Crescent Land Value:
A few high-rises, but mostly mid-
rise, vertical mix of uses
Economic Development
Total Study Area:
245 Acres
Highway Demo:
1.395 miles
Cost Approx. $85,000,000
(Re)Constructed Grid + 4 new Public Parks:
Approx. 6.2 miles
Cost Approx $21,270,000
Majority of which is covered in TIF
4 Existing TIF Districts
Within Study Area
For similar cost to Public outlay for Klyde Warren Park, City can leverage 3-4
new parks as centerpieces of new privately built neighborhoods
And easily borrow enough for D2 line against it.
Of all the highways around dfw, 345
leverages the most immediately available
land for high intensity uses.
Creating connections and strengthening east-
west corridors from downtown to east dallas
(ross, live oak, gaston, elm/main/commerce)
Repositions 5000 acres of land in East Dallas
between Downtown and White Rock Lake
which has highest delta between existing
and potential value for increased
investment
The Best bones in the city
Economic Development
www.aNewDallas.com