Geologic risk analysis and

resource assessment
Presented by Mr. Yang Dengwei
2003.2.28
Part 1
Resource Assessment Principals
Contents
Four levels of petroleum resource
assessment
Basic methods of petroleum resource
assessment
Principals and procedures of play
assessment
Principals and procedures of prospect
assessment
Resource Assessment
Government
Long term energy policy
Forecast discoveries/supply
Environmental impact
Future technical/capital needs
Schedule lease sales etc.
Economics of industry participation
Political and regulatory options
Exploration planning
Resource assessment
Industry
Guide exploration by ranking opportunities
Forecast rate of discovery and supply
( reserve/production )
Future technological/capital needs
Schedule exploration activities
Economic analysis to guide investment
decisions
Future amount of exploratory drilling
1.1 Four Levels of Petroleum
Resource Assessment
-Basin level
-Petroleum system level
-Play level
-Prospect level
Four Levels of Petroleum Resource
Assessment
Sedimentary basin investigation emphasize the
stratigraphic sequence and structural style of
sedimentary rocks.
Petroleum system studies describe the genetic
relationship between a pod of active source rock
and the resulting oil and gas accumulations.
Play investigations describe the present-day
geologic similarity of a series of present-day traps.
Prospect studies describe the individual present-
day trap.
Factor comparison in the four levels of
petroleum resource assessment
-----------------------------------------------------
Sedimentary Petroleum
Factor Basin System Play Prospect
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Investigation Sedimentary rocks Petroleum Traps Trap
Economics None None Essential Essential
Geologic time Time of deposition Critical moment Present-day Present-day
Existence Absolute Absolute Conditional Conditional
Cost Very low Low High Very high
Analysis &
Modeling Basin System Play Play
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
( from L.B.Magoon, 1994 )
1.2 Basic Assessment Methods
Arial and volumetric yield
Delphi
Geochemical material-balance
Performance or behavioristic extrapolation
based on historical data
Combinations of geological and statistical
models
B.M. miller,1986
Basic Assessment Methods
Basin
Arial and volumetric yield
Delphi
Geochemical material-balance
Play aggregation
Petroleum system
Delphi
Geochemical material-balance
Basin modeling
Play aggregation
Play
Reservoir engineering ( Trap volume )
Discovery process
Delphi
Geochemical material-balance
Analog
Prospect aggregation
Prospect
Reservoir engineering ( Trap volume )
Three point method
Arial and volumetric yield Methods in
Combination with Geologic Analogy
This method was one of the first to be used in
petroleum resource evaluation (Weeks,
1950:Zapp,1962;Hendricks,1965;Meyer,1978
;Miller,1979;etc.). Based on comparative
study, geologist apply a yield factor from one
known basin to an unknown basin having
similar characteristics. For conceptual plays,
this method provides some information about
the richness of the unknown basin.
Arial and volumetric yield Methods in
Combination with Geologic Analogy
The advantages of this method are: (1) this method
combines geochemical data and/or e4xperience
from mature basins, (2) it is easy to understand,(3)
it is suitable for the evaluation of conceptual plays.
The disadvantages are : (1) assessment obtained
cannot be validated; (2) the information provided
by this method is clearly inadequate for economic
study
Arial and volumetric yield Methods in
Combination with Geologic Analogy
Jones 1975
Y =a x R x T x S X M
Y is reserves per cubic mile
a is an experience-based parameter (26 bbls per
cubic mile )
R is the fraction of the basin that can contain
petroleum
T is the fraction of R that is in trap position
S x M is (producible petroleum in trap)/(trap
capacity)
Arial and volumetric yield Methods in
Combination with Geologic Analogy
Q =KVB
Where:
Q---Petroleum resources of interest area
K---Reserve density factor of geologic analog
basin ( or area )
V---Sedimentary volume of interest area
B ---Similarity factor between interest area and
analog basins
Reserve density factor
Basin (or region ) Reserve density factor (t/km
3
)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Illinois basin 1100
Mexico Gulf 1900
Oklahoma 2300
California 5800
Texas 1200
Michigan basin 200
USA 1800
Delphi or Subjective Consensus Assessment
Methods
Definition
Several experts ( each of whom is considered
equally expert ) makes a resource assessment
expressed in terms of a range of uncertainty . A
consensus is achieved by averaging probabilities
at specific resource sizes to derive a single curve
reflecting the group opinion of the uncertainty.
Miller et al.,1975;Dolton et al.,1981; Nation
Petroleum Council,1981
Delphi or Subjective Consensus Assessment
Methods
Procedure
A group of experts usually reviews all the geologic
information available in an area or basin, which sometimes
includes the results of any previous assessments by other
estimators and/or by other methods.
Each member of the team constructs his or her own
probability distribution of the estimated potential resources.
The group reviews all the individual results and makes
modifications where considered necessary.
The final probability distribution are determined either by
consensus of the group or by averaging the individual
probability distributions
Delphi or Subjective Consensus Assessment
Methods
Main advantage:
It can be used at all scales ( basin to prospect ) and
exploration maturities.
It is basically a fairly rapid and simple procedure.
The results can be expressed as probability distributions,
which reflect the uncertainties in the estimates.
Disadvantage:
-often no documentation of assumptions and reasoning
-subjective estimates prone to personal and collective
-who decides that all the experts are equally expert?
Geochemical Material Balance Methods
The geochemical material balance methods are a
special type of volumetric resource appraisal
procedure by which one can estimate the amount
of hydrocarbons generated in the source rocks, the
amount of hydrocarbons involved in migration,
the probable losses of hydrocarbons during the
migration process, and the quantity of
hydrocarbons that have been accumulated in the
deposits.
Neruchev,1962;Semenovich,1977, Philippi,1955
Ungerer,1984
Geochemical Material Balance Methods
Advantages of the method are:
--It is deterministic
--It provides a way of calculating an upper limit for
the resources
--It is suitable for plays or basin
The disadvantage are:
--the determinstic approach may not be fully
satisfactory
--It is inapplicable for prediction of individual pool
size
Chloroform Bitumen A Method
Q = H x S x R x B x K
b
Where:
QTotal amount of hydrocarbon generated ( 10
8
t )
H--- Thickness of source rocks (km)
S--- Area of source rocks (km
2
)
R---Source rock density ( 10
8
t/km
3
)
B---Chloroform bitumen A content (%)
K
h
---Bitumen transformation factor ( commonly 15%-20% )
R = Q x K
1
x K
2
Where
R---Hydrocarbon resources
K
1
---the fraction of expelled hydrocarbon (%) that is in generated hydrocarbon
amount
K
2
---the fraction of accumulated hydrocarbon (%) that is in expelled
hydrocarbon amount
Organic Matter Quality Balance Method
Q = H x S x R x C x Kc
Where:
Q--- Total amount of hydrocarbon generated( 10
8
t)
H---Thickness of source rock (km)
S---Area of source rocks (km
2
)
R---Source rock density (10
8
t/km
3
)
C---Organic matter content (%)
KcOrganic matter transformation factor ( commonly 1.0%-
1.2% )
R =Q x K
1
x K
2
Statistical Table of Expelled and Accumulated
Factor
Basin oil expelled & Basin gas expelled &
accumulated accumulated
factor (%) factor (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Southern Songliao 12 Sichuan (J) 0.05
North China 10 Sichuan (P) 0.20
Ordos (Mz) 3.6 Sichuan (E) 0.24
Jizhong sag 4 Qaidam 0.36
East China Sea 3 Illinois 0.40
Junggar 1-9 Timan-Pechora 0.80
Volga-Ural 2 Los-Angeles 0.10
West Siberia 2
Persiam Gulf 3
Permian 10
Sedimentary rate method
lgQ =2.183 +1.613lgv
Where:
Q---petroleum resource of sedimentary basin
V---average sedimentary rate of a basin
Type I, average sedimentary rate > 14km
3
/Ma
Type II, average sedimentary rate = 4-14km
3
/Ma
Type III, average sedimentary rate = 1.5-4km
3
/Ma
Type I, average sedimentary rate < 1.5km
3
/Ma
1.3 Principals and procedures of
play assessment
1. 3.1 Play definition
1.3.2 Play assessment methods
-Reservoir engineering method (FASFUM)
-Discovery process
1.3.3 Procedures of play assessment
1.3.4.Application of play assessment in
WGRA and OGRA projects
1.3.1.Play Definition
A play is defined as a group of prospects
within a geographically delimited area,
where a set of mutually related factors must
be present concurrently in order to permit
the discovery of hydrocarbon.
reservoir rocks, traps, mature source rocks,
migration path, timing
( CCOP )
Play definition
An exploration play consists of a family of
prospects and/or discovered fields that share
a common history of hydrocarbon
generation, migration, reservoir
development and trap configuration
( Geological Survey of Canada , 1986 )
Play Definition
Play is the elemental part of a petroleum system,
and a recognized as having one or more
accumulations of hydrocarbons identified by a
common geological character of reservoir, trap,
and seal; timing and migration; preservation; a
common engineering character of location,
environment, and fluid and flow properties; or a
combination of these.
( Otis and Schneidermann, 1997 )
Play Definition
Prospects and fields in a play have similar
structural configurations and structural histories.
Prospects and fields in a play have similar top
seals and seat seals.
Fields in a play form a coherent lognormal
distribution of ultimately recoverable reserves.
It is defined primarily by the present-day
maximum extent of a potential reservoir facies
Play defined at early stages of exploration, are
often refined and split into several plays as
knowledge increase with continued exploration
1.3.2 Play assessment methods
-Reservoir engineering method (FASFUM)
-Discovery process(PRASS1)
Play assessment methods
Reservoir engineering method
(FASFUM)
) 1 ( ) / 1 (
gas o h oil
HCPV B F S H A IPR =
GOR IPR IPR
oil assgas
=
gas g h gas
HCPV B F S H A IPR = ) / 1 (
CGR IPR IPR
gas cond
=
Calculation equation
Where:
IPR
oil
in-place oil resources
IPR
gas
in-place non-associated gas
IPR
assgas
in-place non-associated
IPRcondin-place condensate
Aarea of closure
Heffective reservoir thickness
HCPV
gas
probability that accumulation in a gas accumulation
effective porosity
S
h
HC saturation
Ftrap fill
B
o
oil formation volume factor
B
g
gas formation volume factor
GORgas oil ratio
CGRcondensate gas ratio (condensate field)
Risk analysis
Play attributes
Four regional characteristics that describe a given
plat, including:
-Hydrocarbon source (S)
-Timing (T)
-Migration (M)
-Potential reservoir facies ( R)
These attributes determine whether conditions
underlying the play are favorable for occurrence
of oil or gas within it.
Marginal play probability=product of play attributes
Hydrocarbon source
Hydrocarbon source is the probability of occurrence of a
rock unit that has generated and expelled oil or gas in
sufficient quantity to form one or more accumulation
within the play.
Based on:
Minimum source-rock criteria
Organic richness
Kerogen type
Thermal maturity
When known hydrocarbon accumulations occur in the play,
this play attribute probability is 1 by definition.
Source rock evaluation
A source rock is the sedimentary rocks that are, or may
become, or have been able to generate petroleum.
An effective source rock is generating or has generated and
expelled petroleum.
A potential source rock contain adequate quantities of
organic matter to generate petroleum, but only becomes an
effective source rock when it generates bacterial gas at low
temperatures or it reaches the proper level of thermal
maturity to generate petroleum .
Quantity, or amount of organic matter
Quality, or type of organic matter
Thermal maturity, or extent of burial heating
Geochemical parameters describing the petroleum
potential of an immature source rock
Organic matter Bitumen Hydrocarbon
Petroleum
Potential ----------------------------- -------------------------
TOC S
1
a
S
2
b
(wt.%) (ppm) (ppm)
(wt.%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Poor 0-0.5 0-0.5 0-2.5 0-0.05 0-500 0-300
Fair 0.5 -1 0.5-1 2.5-1 0.05-0.10 500-1000 300-600
Good 1-2 1-2 5-10 0.10-0.20 1000-2000 600-1200
Very good 2-4 2-4 10-20 0.20-0.40 2000-4000 1200-2400
Excellent >4 >4 >20 >0.40 >4000 >2400
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
a
mg HC/g dry rock distilled by pyrolysis
b
mg HC/g dry rock cracked from kerogen by pyrolysis
( from L.B. Magoon , 1994 )
Geochemical parameters describing kerogen type
(quality) and the character of expelled products
a
HI Main Expelled
Kerogen type (mg HC/g TOC) S2/S3 Atomic H/C Product at
Peak Maturity
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I >600 >15 >1..5 Oil
II 300-600 10-15 1.2-1.5 Oil
II/III
b
200-300 5-15 1.0-1.2 Mixed oil and gas
III 50-200 1-5 0.7-1.0 Gas
IV <50 <1 <0.7 None
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
a
Based on a themally immature source rock.
b
Type II/III designates kerogens with compositions between II and III pathways
that show intermediate
( from L.B. Magoon, 1994)
Geochemical Parameters Describing Level of
Thermal Maturation
---------------------------------------------------------------
Maturation Generation
-------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------
Stage of Thermal Ro Tmax Bitumen/ Butumen PI
c
Maturation for oil (%) (
0
C) TAI
a
TOC
b
(mg/g rock) {S1/S1+S2)}
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Immature 0.2-0.6 <435 1.5-2.6 <0.05 < 50 <0.01
Mature
Early 0.6-0.65 435-445 2.6-2.7 0.05-0.10 50-100 0.10-0.15
Peak 0.65-0.9 445-450 2.7-2.9 0.15-0.25 150-250 0.25-0.40
Late 0.9-1.35 450-470 2.9-3.3 -- -- >0.40
Postmature >1.35 >470 >3.3 -- -- --
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
a
TAL. Thermal alteration Index.
b
Mature oil-prone rocks with type I or II Kerogen commonly show bitumen/TOC ratios in
the range 0.05-0.25. Bitumen/TOC ratios over 0.25 can indicate contamination or
migrated oil or can be artifacts caused by ratios of small, inaccurate numbers.
c
PL, production index.
( from L.B.Magoon,1994)
Geochemical parameters of source rocks in
continental beds in China
Source rock TOC Chloroform bitumen HC HC/TOC
Type (%) (%) A ( mg HC/g rock) (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Excellent >1 >0.1 >500 >5
Moderate 0.6-1 0.05-0.1 100-500 1-5
Poorer 0.4-0.6 0.02-0.05 60-100
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Timing
Timing [fraction or %] is the probability of
occurrence of a suitable relationship between the
time of trap formation and the time of
hydrocarbon movement into or through the play
area.
Based on:
-the time of trap formation
-the time of maturity of source rocks.
When known hydrocarbon accumulations occur in
the play, this play attribute probability is 1 by
definition.
Migration
Migration is the probability of effective
movement of hydrocarbons through a conduit that
may be permeable, a fracture or a fault. Its
evaluation is based on structural and stratigraphic
information from which inferences can be drawn
concerning the presence of a geologically
favorable conduit. When known hydrocarbon
accumulations occur in the play, this play attribute
probability is 1 by definition.
Potential Reservoir Facies
Potential reservoir facies is the probability of
occurrence of a rock that contain porosity and
permeability capable of containing producible
hydrocarbons.
Based on:
-reservoir data from the play
- projections from adjacent areas
-analog comparisons
When known hydrocarbon accumulations occur in
the play, this play attribute probability is 1 by
definition.
Marginal play probability
This term expresses the probability that all of the
first four play attributes are concurrently favorable
somewhere in the play.
Marginal play probability = S x T x M x T
If oil or natural gas deposit has been found in the
play, the marginal play probability is 1.
If oil or natural gas deposit has not been found in
the play, the marginal play probability is less than
1.
Prospect attributes
Three local characteristics that determine the nature
of prospects within a play, including :
-Trapping mechanism (TM)
-Effective porosity (P)
-Hydrocarbon accumulation (C)
Evaluation of these attributes is accomplished by
recording a single value between 0 ( total certainty
that the attribute is absent ) and 1 ( total certainty
that the attribute is present ) for the probability
that the attribute is generally favorable in a
randomly selected prospect within the play area.
Trap occurrence
Trap occurrence is the probability of
occurrence of a structural or stratigraphic
configuration that provides a trap for
migrating hydrocarbons.
Based on:
-seismic or geologic mapping
-projection from nearby areas
-analog comparisons.
Effective porosity
Effective porosity is the probability of significant
interconnected void space of a potential reservoir
facies capable of holding hydrocarbons.
Evaluation of this attribute is recorded with an
estimate of the probability that the porosity in the
prospect is equal to or greater than the threshold
porosity defined in the effective porosity volume
parameter.
Based on : measurement, calculation, projection
or analog comparisons.
Reservoir quality prediction
Predicting sandstone reservoir porosity
-Porosity-depth plots
-Equation for porosity prediction
-Predicting effects of diagenesis on porosity
-Estimating effect of near-surface diagenesis
-Predicting sandstone porosity from burial history
-Analog porosity
Related Technologies Used in Porosity
Predictions
Technology Why is it important?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sedimentology Facies analysis,environment of deposition
Petrography Microfacies,diagenesis, pore system description
Fluorescence Depositional/diagenetic fabric recognition, pore
geometry
Luminescence Depositional/diagenetic fabric recognition
Geophysics Facies analysis,unconformity recognition
Core analysis Porosity, permeability, pore geometry
Inorganic geochemistry Diagenetic interpretations, unconformity recognition
Organic geochemistry Source rock quality, migration timing
Fluid inclusion thermometry Migration timing, diagenesis,thermal maturity
Thermal maturity analyses Indirectly related to porosity, hydrocarbon phase preserved
Basin modelling Timing of porosity creation/destruction events, depth of
burial
Compaction simulation Prediction of past burial depth and depth to porosity
basement
Rock mechanics Probability of fracturing
Equation for porosity prediction
Porosity = 18.60 +(4.73 x in quartz) + (17.37/sorting )
- (3.8 x depth x 10
-3
) (4.65 x in age )
Where:
Porosity = percent of bulk volume
In quartz = percent of solid-rock volume
Sorting = Trask sorting coefficient
Depth = maters
In age = millions of years
Use 75% for percent solid volume quartz and 1.5 for sorting when these
values are not known.
( from Scherer , 1987 )
Using burial history to predict
porosity
Step 1. Construct a burial history diagram for the formation
of interest in the prospect area.
Step 2. Plot the tectonic history of the basin in the prospect
area along the lower x-axis.
Step 3. Plot the hydrologic history of the prospect area
along the lower x-axis. Use the tectonic history to infer the
hydrologic history of the prospect.
Step 4. Plot the porosity curve by combining concepts of
diagenetic processes with burial and hydrologic of the
prospect.
Analog porosity
Analog porosity values for different depositional
environments can help us predict the porosity of
reservoir system rocks when the target formation
is unsampled within the basin. Analog values,
however, may have wide ranges within facies and
subfacies of depositional environments. Therefore,
we should use care when applying analog data.
Predicting sandstone
permeability from texture
Pore type, pore geometry, and fluid
properties are critical factors affecting
permeability. Sandstone texture directly
affects pore type and geometry,. Knowing
what textures and fluids to expect, as well
as what authigenic clays might be present,
can help us predict permeability.
Effects of pore type and
geometry
Pore type, defined by pore throat size ( I.e.,
macroporosity), directly controls rock
permeability. Pore throat size limits flow
capacity. Pore geometry also affects
permeability, but not as much. The rougher
the surface of the pore, the more difficult
for fluid to flow through the pore and the
lower the permeability.
Effects of texture
Decreasing grain size decreases
permeability
Increasing grain sorting increases
permeability.
Increasing grain rounding increases
permeability.
Effect of authigenic clays
Pore-bridging clays, like illite, decrease
porosity slightly but can destroy
sandstone permeability. Discrete particle
clay, like kaolinite, lowers porosity and
permeability only slightly.
Detrital clay and permeability
Detrital clays can be part of sandstone
matrix or grains. As matrix, detrital clays
can obliterate permeability. Detrital grains
of clay are often ductile and can be
compacted into pore spaces during burial.
The percentage of detrital clay in a rock
determines permeability.
Predicting sandstone
permeability from texture
Step 1, Estimating grain size, sorting, and porosity using the depositional
environment. For example, if a reservoir is a beach sand, it should be
fine-to medium-grained and well sorted with well-rounded quartz
grains.
Step 2, Apply information from Step 1 to the porosity-permeability-grain
size plot. Use porosity and grain size from sandstone to estimate the
permeability on the chart.
Step 3, If the sandstone is poorly sorted or is cemented, then discount
permeability downward.
Step 4, Determine if authigenic clay is present,. If so, what kind: pore
lining,discrete particle , or pore throat bridging? Adjust permeability
downward according to clay type present.
Step 5, Determine if detrital clay is present using depositional
environment (i.e. high energy= low clay content ). If detrital clay is
likely, then expect permeability to be low.
Discovery process models
These methods project future discoveries from
statistical analysis of discovered field-size
distributions. The basic assumptions are that
discovery is both proportional to pool size and to
sampling without replacement.
Number of prospect distribution
Number of pool distribution
Play resource distribution
Pool size by rank
Generation of reservoir parameters
This approach is applicable only in areas where
considerable discoveries have been made
Hydrocarbon accumulation
Hydrocarbon accumulation is the conditional
probability of occurrence in a randomly
chosen prospect in the play of the
combination of hydrocarbon source and
migration necessary for the formation of
hydrocarbon charge equal or larger than the
minimum size.
Based on :
the structural, stratigraphic and thermal
history of the play.
Conditional deposit probability
Conditional deposit probability is the probability that a
randomly chosen prospect in the play is an
accumulation, given that the play is favorable for
hydrocarbon accumulation ( i.e. marginal play
probability is 1 )
Conditional deposit probability = TM x P x C
As a guide, the conditional deposit probability should not
exceed the success ratio calculated from the drilling
results so far.Usually the drilling starts in the most
promising parts of the play. It is necessary to evaluate if
the remaining parts of the play is better or worse than
the explored part.
Unconditional play probability
Unconditional play probability
( discovery probability )is the
probability that at least one undrilled
prospect in the play is hydrocarbon
accumulations of minimum size.
Unconditional play probability = play
marginal probability x conditional
deposit probability
Play resource estimates
1. Reservoir parameters
Reservoir lithology
Hydrocarbon mix
2. Hydrocarbon volume parameters
area of closure
reservoir thickness
effective porosity
hydrocarbon saturation
trap fill
reservoir depth
recovery rate oil
recovery rate gas
Play resource estimates
3. The number of prospects
4. Reservoir parameters
original reservoir pressure
reservoir temperature
gas-oil ratio
oil formation factor
gas compressibility
condensate yield
oil floor depth
Minimum threshold values
USGS
Area of closure 2.4 km
2
( 600 acres )
Reservoir thickness 1.6 m (5ft )
Effective porosity 3%
Trap fill 1%
Reservoir depth 30m ( 100 ft)
These minimum values are used at the 100
th
fractile
unless a higher value is selected.
The probabilities that these threshold values are
achieved are incorporated in the prospect attribute
judgements and the number of drillable prospects
distribution.
The minimum threshold values are selected to be less
any reasonable economic limit in order to prevent
economic considerations from influencing the
evaluation procedure.
Area closure
Area of closure is the distribution of the
mean area within a trap above the spill point.
A minimum threshold value is required.
Data used in the evaluation of this
parameter may include seismic mapping,
surface geologic mapping, or analog
comparison.
Reservoir thickness
Reservoir thickness is the possible range for the
mean thickness of the reservoir, or the amount of
vertical closure in the situation where structural
amplitude is less than individual reservoir
thickness. Thickness values describe the
maximum reservoir thickness for a single
reservoir or for stacked multiple reservoirs with
effective porosity of a minimum threshold value.
Data used in the evaluation of this parameter
may include seismic mapping, surface and
subsurface geological measurements, projection
from nearby areas, or analog comparison
Effective Porosity
Porosity is the distribution of the mean
amount of interconnected void space in the
reservoir rock. A minimum threshold value is
used at the 100th fractile, and the probability
that this minimum value is achieved is
incorporated into the probability of effective
porosity judgement. Data used in the
evaluation of this parameter are based on
measurement, calculation, projection, or analog
comparison.
Trap fill
Trap Fill [fraction or %] is the distribution of
the mean trapped hydrocarbon volume as a
percentage of the porous volume under
closure. A minimum threshold value is used
at the 100th fractile. The probability that this
minimum value is achieved is incorporated
into the probability of hydrocarbon
accumulation judgement. Data used in the
evaluation of this parameter is based on
source-rock richness and thermal maturation,
hydrocarbon drainage area, size of structure,
porosity and permeability of reservoir rock,
or analog comparison.
HC Saturation
HC Saturation [fraction or %] is the
distribution of the mean hydrocarbon
saturation for the prospects in the play. The
hydrocarbon (HC) saturation is 1 minus the
water saturation
Reservoir Depth
Reservoir depth [meters or feet] is the
distribution of the mean depth that must be
drilled to penetrate potential reservoir facies.
A minimum threshold value is used at the
100th fractile. Data used in the evaluation
of this parameter may include seismic
mapping, projection from nearby areas or
analog comparison
Number of drillable prospects
This play characteristic describes the range of
possible values for the number of valid targets
that would be considered for drilling if the play
were to be fully explored.
Only prospects with the minimum accumulation
size are considered.
May be estimated by using :
seismic mapping
surface and subsurface mapping
prospect density scaled to the area of the area
of the play based on mature part of play or
analogue
Recovery Rate
Recovery Rate Oil is the distribution of the
mean amount of oil in-place that can be
recovered.
Recovery Rate Gas is the distribution of the
mean amount of gas in-place that can be
recovered
Probability of gas
Probability of gas ( Hydrocarbon mix ) is the
probability that an accumulation is a gas
accumulation. 1 minus this probability is the
probability that the accumulation is an oil
accumulation.
Based on:
-thermal maturity
-type of organic material
-the type of hydrocarbon observed
in wells and seeps
-seismic observation
Geological variables as a function of depth
Original reservoir pressure [bars or psi]
Reservoir temperature [Deg K or R]
Gas-Oil Ratio [ sm3/sm3or scf/STB]
Oil Formation Factor [sm3/sm3or bbl/STB]
Gas Compressability factor [real]
Condensate Yield [sm
3
/1000 sm
3
or STB/1000 scf]
(Zoned ) linear function
A x Depth +B
Exponential function
Power function
Logarithmic function
Original reservoir pressure
PRES = PINT + (PGRAD)D
where
PRES---reservoir pressure(bar)
PINT---surface pressure (bar)
PGRAD---pressure gradient (bar/m)
If the original reservoir pressure is equal to the
hydrostatic pressure, the function could be written as :
PRES = 0.1 x depth + 1
If the original reservoir pressure is 30% higher than the
hydrostatic pressure, the function could be written as
PRES = 0.13 x depth +1
Reservoir temperature
TRES = TINT + (TGRAD ) D
Where:
TRES---reservoir temperature (K )
TINT---surface temperature( K )
TGRAD---temperature gradient ( k/m )
D---depth ( m)
Gas-oil ratio
May be estimated by using:
Local data
Basin modelling
Standing chart for saturated oils
(input: pressure, temperature, oil and gas gravities )
Vasquez-Beggs equations (Empirical)
(input:as above)
Oil formation volume factor
Local data
Standing chart for saturated oils
(Input: GOR, gas and oil densities,
temperature)
Vasquez-Beggs equation (empirical)
(input: as above)
Gas Compressability factor
Local measurements
Analog analysis
Empirical equation
Z= 0.000099 x depth + 0.68
Abrahamsen (1989)
FASPUM output
Number of accumulations is the number of accumulations
of the relevant hydrocarbon type.
Accumulation size is the amount of in-place hydrocarbons
in an accumulation.
Conditional prospect potential is the risked amount of in-
place hydrocarbon in a randomly selected accumulation
under the assumption that the marginal play probability is
1.
Conditional B play potential is the risked amount of in-
place hydrocarbon expected to be found in the play under
the assumption that the marginal play probability is 1 and
that there exists at least one undrilled accumulation of the
relevant type in the play. This estimate of play potential
therefore ignores that there are a finite number of prospects
available for drilling.
Faspum output
Conditional A play potential is the risked amount
of in-place hydrocarbon expected to be found in
the play under the assumption that the marginal
play probability is 1. This estimate of play
potential should be close to the B potential when
there are a large number of prospects in the play.
Unconditional prospect oil potential is the amount
of in-place oil in the accumulation given the
estimated value of the unconditional prospect
probability. If the marginal play probability is 1
then the unconditional prospect potential and the
conditional prospect potential are identical.
1.3.3 Principals and procedures
for play assessment
Play definition
Information-or data gathering
Construction of play model
Play geologic risk assessment
Play resource estimates
Delineation of permissive areas
Play economic analysis
Reporting of assessment results
Information or data gathering
Types of information and data compiled relate to the
following :
1. Petroleum geology
2. Exploration history
3. Seismic exploration
4. Production and reserves statistics
5. Analog basins or information
Construction of play model
Synthesize geologically related factors to represent a certain
type of hydrocarbon prospectivity
Factors to be considered:
1.sedimentation and tectonic evolution
source rock
development and configuration
hydrocarbon generation/migration/accumulation
reservoir characteristics
seal characteristics
2. sea level changes
3.heatflow/geothermal gradient
Delineation of permissive areas
-to define areas which are economically, technically and
politically feasible for petroleum exploration
Factors to be considered:
exploration density
seismic coverage
wells drilled
geological mapping
geologic facies
areal distribution of play
geothermally favorable area
extent of stratigraphic units and their thickness
adequate trap and seal
presence of mature source rock
contamination-N2, CO2
migration patterns
porosity and permeability
geographical limit
offshore-water depth, block or country boundary
onshore-block or country boundary, topography
Reporting of assessment results
- Present values realistically and minimize risks and to
identify economically feasible work program
Factors to be considered:
purpose of assessment
methodology and data sets used
remaining plat potential expressed as P95/expected
value/P05 values
total play potential ( remaining potential combined
with produced, developed and discovered resources )
hydrocarbon accumulations
accumulation size distribution
number of accumulation
oil and gas distribution
risk factor
ranking of plays, areas, etc.
1.3.4 The Discussion on input & output data
of resource assessment in WGRA and
OGRM projects
Discussions on input data
Discussions on output data
Discussions on input data
Marginal play probability
Conditional deposit probability
Possible guideline for success ratio
Prospect risking guide
Possible guidelines for prospect densities
Geometric factor
Recovery rate
Marginal play probability
If oil and gas field ( or fool ) has been found,
in the play, the marginal play probability is
1.
If oil and gas field ( or pool ) has not been
proven by drilling in the play, the marginal
play probability should be less than 1.
Marginal play probability
0.4-0.6 : Little or no available data on which to base a geological
model; play may with equal likelihood eventually be vindicated or
denied.
0.6-0.8: Sufficient data on which to base a geological model which
predicts that play may possibly be affirmed by subsequent data
acquisition, including drilling.
0.2-0.4 : Sufficient data on which to base a model which predicts that
play possibly be denied by subsequent data acquisition, including
drilling.
0.8-1.0: Further data which strengthen the model prediction to : play
will probably be affirmed by drilling.
0.0-0.2: Further data which strengthen the model predictions to: play
will probably be denied by drilling
( From B.A Duff and D.Hall, 1996 )
Marginal play probability
Play play probability ranges from zero in hopeless
plays to 1.0 in the assured extensions of existing
productive plays or established plays. Average
plays chance in a group of 1150 plays in 80
productive basins was 0.35 ( white, 1980 ), but
new plays generally are becoming riskier.
Average marginal play probability
Chance of at least one major field:
for sandstone plays=0.38
for carbonate lays=0.30
for all plays=0.35
(1150 plays in 80 productive basins---
White, 1980 )
Probability of hydrocarbon accumulation
Step 1: Calculating the primary feature value
of hydrocarbon accumulation
No.discoveries / No. drilled prospects with
effective porosity and trap mechanism
Step 2 : Making a judgement for the whole
play area based on regional conditions of
hydrocarbon accumulation
Conditional deposit probability
As a guide, the conditional deposit probability should not
exceed the success ratio calculated from the drilling results
so far.Usually the drilling starts in the most promising
parts of the play. It is necessary to evaluate if the
remaining parts of the play is better or worse than the
explored part.
Possible guideline for success
ratios
The success ratio in a play is the number of
expected fields exceeding minimum size
divided by the number of prospects large
enough to hold fields of at least that size.
Success ratios reflect independent
individual prospect risk. They are highly
influenced by the selected population of
prospects.
Possible guideline for success ratios
Ratios may be very high for a high-graded
group of prospects in the best part of a
productive trend. They may be much lower
if a large number of fringing poor prospects
are included in the group.
Success ratios range from zero in
nonproductive plays to 1.0 in exceptionally
productive plays (e.g.,heart of the Los
Angeles basin ). More typically, success
ratios range from near zero to 0.5 and
average about 0.25.
Prospect risking guide
Extensions of producing plays
0.3-0.5 ( play success ratio ) x 0.8-1.0 ( common
play chance )=0.24-0.50 (average prospect
chances )
Good-looking new plays
0.2-0.3 x 0.3-0.4=0.06-0.12
Poorer-looking new plays
0.1-0.2 x 0.1-0.2=0.01-0.04
( White,1993 )
Prospect risking guide
1.Very low risk ( Pg between 0.5 and 0.99 )
All risk factors are favorable. This category is
associate with wells that test proven plays adjacent
to ( <5km ) existing production.
2. Low risk ( Pg between 0.25 and 0.5 )
All risk factors are encouraging to favorable.this
category is associated with well that test proven
plays near ( 5-10 km ) existing production.
Prospect risking guide
3. Moderate risk (Pg between 0.125 and 0.25)
Two or three risk factors are encouraging to
favorableone or two factors are
encouraging or neutral. This category is
associated with wells testing new plays in
producing basins or proven plays far from
( >10km) existing production.
Prospect risking guide
4.High risk ( Pg between 0.063 and 0.12 )
One or two risk factors are encouraging
Two or three factors are neutral or encouraging to
neutral. This category is often associated with
wells testing new plays in producing basins far
from( >20km) existing production or proven plays
in an unproved area
(from B.A.Duff and D.Hall,1996)
Prospect risking guide
5. Very high risk (Pg between 0.01 and
0.063 )
Two to three risk factors are no better than
neutral, with one or two factors
questionable or unfavorable. This category
is usually associated with wells testing new
plays in an unproved area far from (>50km)
existing production.
(from B.A.Duff and D.Hall,1996)
Probability factor
Geox Guideline of CCOP
Hydrocarbon source Reservoir
Timing Trap
Migration Petroleum Charge
Petroleum reservoir Retention after
Facies Accumulation
Trapping mechanism
Effective porosity
Hydrocarbon accumulation
The CCOP Guidelines for Risk Assessment of
Petroleum Prospect
Probability Marginal play probability Conditional prospect
probability
Reservoir probability of existence of probability of effectiveness
(P1) reservoir facies (P1a ) Of the reservoir (P2b)
Effective trap probability of effective probability of presence of the
(P2) seal mechanism ( P2b ) mapped structure (P2a)
Petroleum probability of effective probability of effective
charge migration
(P3) source rock (P3a ) migration (P3b )
Retention probability of retention
(P4) after accumulation (P4
Estimating remaining number of
drillable prospects in a play
Prospect density:
=No. of prospects+ No. of wells ( discoveries & dry wells)
area of mature acreage
No.of remaining drillable prospects:
=prospect density x total acreage- drilled wells
Problem:
analogs for prospect densities of stratigraphic traps
Possible guidelines for prospect
densities
Prospect densities number per 1000 sq mi or
1000sq km ) are used to help postulate number of
likely but unseen prospects, by comparing what is
known about the area being assessed with the
density of a thoroughly drilled or mapped look-
alike area .
Prospect densities depend on the minimum field
size being assessed. A very rough rule of thumb is
that it takes about 1 sq mi (2.6 sq km ) closure
area to hold a 10 x10
6
bbl (1.6 x 10
6
m
3
) oil field,
but there is great variation depending on pay
thickness, porosity, etc.
Possible guidelines for prospect
densities
Prospect densities vary with structural and
stratigraphic trap style.
--for large prospects ( 5 sq mi or 13 sq km ) that
might hold a major field ( 50 x 10
6
bbl or 8 x 10
6
m
3
), the density may range from 1 to about 30 per
1000 sq mi (0.4 to 12 per 1000 sq km ).
--smaller densities are typical of simple structural
deformations such as normal-faulted blocks, and
larger ones characterize complex deformations
such as wrench styles, foldbelts, or intermixed salt
and glide features.
--prospect densities for stratigraghic traps are very
uncertain, except perhaps for some reefs
Possible guidelines for prospect
densities
Studies of local conditions and good
geologic look-alikes are essential, based on
the particular minimum field size being
assessed. The best look-alike is the
thoroughly drilled extension of an assessed
play.
Geometric factor
Geometric factor is a correction factor that
accounts for the thinning of a full
hydrocarbon column at the edge. Data used
in the evaluation of this parameter may
include seismic mapping, surface and
subsurface geologic measurements,
projection from nearby areas, or analog
comparisons.
Recovery rate
The recovery factor is often the most important
and the most difficult parameter to establish with
confidence at any stage.
The recovery factor is dependent on many aspects
which range from reservoir drive mechanisms,
fluid viscosity, reservoir thickness, rock
permeability, porosity, rock type right down to the
abandonment conditions
In prospect evaluation the reserves are recoverable
using good oilfield practices .
Empirical value of recovery rate
Gas pool Oil pool
Strongly water drive 30%-40% 45%-60%
Partly water drive 40%-50% 30%-45%
Gas- top drive 50%-70% 20%-40%
Solution gas drive 50%-70% 10%-20%
Empirical equation
Er=21.4287(K/
o
)
0.1316
Er=
recovery rate
K=permeability

0
=oil viscosity
Geological variables as a function of depth
Original reservoir pressure [bars or psi]
Reservoir temperature [Deg K or R]
Gas-Oil Ratio [ sm3/sm3or scf/STB]
Oil Formation Factor [sm3/sm3or bbl/STB]
Gas Compressability factor [real]
Condensate Yield [sm
3
/1000 sm
3
or STB/1000 scf]
(Zoned ) linear function
A x Depth +B
Exponential function
Power function
Logarithmic function
Original reservoir pressure
PRES = PINT + (PGRAD)D
where
PRES---reservoir pressure(bar)
PINT---surface pressure (bar)
PGRAD---pressure gradient (bar/m)
If the original reservoir pressure is equal to the
hydrostatic pressure, the function could be written as :
PRES = 0.1 x depth + 1
If the original reservoir pressure is 30% higher than the
hydrostatic pressure, the function could be written as
PRES = 0.13 x depth +1
Reservoir temperature
TRES = TINT + (TGRAD ) D
Where:
TRES---reservoir temperature (K )
TINT---surface temperature( K )
TGRAD---temperature gradient ( k/m )
D---depth ( m)
Gas-oil ratio
May be estimated by using:
Local data
Basin modelling
Standing chart for saturated oils
(input: pressure, temperature, oil and gas gravities )
Vasquez-Beggs equations (Empirical)
(input:as above)
Oil formation volume factor
Local data
Standing chart for saturated oils
(Input: GOR, gas and oil densities,
temperature)
Vasquez-Beggs equation (empirical)
(input: as above)
Gas Compressability factor
Local measurements
Analog analysis
Empirical equation
Z= 0.000099 x depth + 0.68
Abrahamsen (1989)
Oil floor depth
Oil floor depth = Critical reservoir
temperature / geothermal gradient
Discursion of output data
Yield factor
Accumulation Size
Prospect evaluation
Yield factor
In the Southeast Asia and East Asia plays
evaluated in WGRA and OGRM projects ,
the yield factors commonly range from 0.03
to 0.09 tons/ m^3 pore space for oil, from 3
to 33 m^3/ m^3 pore space for non-
associated gas, and from 0.0059 to15.759
m^3 / m^3 pore space for associated gas.
25.54 25.11 0.064 Miocene sandstone ,Nam Con Son
Basin
0.76 30.12 0.033 Oligocene sandstone, Andaman Sea
0.09 29.61 0.09 Miocene carbonate, North Sumatra
Basin
4.86 15.05 0.058 Miocene Turbidite sandstone, North
Sumatra Basin
/ 2.09 / Miocene sandstone , Ullenung Basin
/ 38.65 / Miocene carbonate , Sarawak Basin
13.14 5.38 0.059 Miocene carbonate, Nam Con Son
Basin
12.32 23.22 0.07 Tertiary sandstone, Subei-South Yellow
Sea Basin
12.58 24.95 0.09 Lower Paleocene sandstone, East China
Basin
Associated gas
(t/m
3
pore space)
Non associated gas
(t/m
3
pore space)
Oil
(t/m
3
pore space)
Plays
Yield factors in Southeast and East Asia plays
Accumulation Size
In the Southeast and East Asia plays
evaluated in WGRA and OGRM projects,
the accumulation size usually ranges from
13 to 43 x 10
6
t for oil pool and from 10 to
50 x 10
9
m
3
for non-associated gas
pool.
Resource assessment
In general, geologists tend to overestimate
with a factor of 2-2.5. This is mainly
because of :
Subjective judgments, and
The multiplicative nature of the calculation.
Overestimates
Because of the multiplicative nature of the calculation,
even an average overoptimism of each parameter with
20% given an overestimate of recovarable resources
with a factor of 3.0!
Gross rock volume 100% 112.5% 116.5% 120%
Net/gross ratio 100% 112.5% 116.5% 120%
Porosity 100% 112.5% 116.5% 120%
HC-saturation 100% 112.5% 116.5% 120%
FV-factor 100% 112.5% 116.5% 120%
Recovery factor 100% 112.5% 116.5% 120%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Product 100% 200% 250% 300%
How can we improve ?
Internal guideline and
procedures for resource
assessment
post-mortem evaluation;
compare drilling results with
pre-drill estimates
Improve internal guidelines
and procedures
Discovery process models
These methods project future discoveries from statistical
analysis of discovered field-size distributions. The basic
assumptions are that discovery is both proportional to pool
size and to sampling without replacement.
Number of prospect distribution
Number of pool distribution
Play resource distribution
Pool size by rank
Generation of reservoir parameters
This approach is applicable only in areas where
considerable discoveries have been made
( Kaufman,1975; Roy and Ross,1980;Lee and wang, 1986
1.4 Prospect assessment
1.4.1 Prospect definition
1.4.2 Prospect resource assessment
Reservoir engineering ( Trap volume )
Three point method
Prospect portfolio (aggregation )
1.4.3 Principals and procedures of prospect assessment1
1.4.1 Prospect Definition
A prospect is a trap that may contain a
petroleum deposit, and is mapped in three
dimensions
( STATOIL )
1.4.2 prospect resource assessment
Three-point method
( J.E. Warren 1980-1984 )
Basic equation
Roil=7758AhS
h
(1/B
o
)R
fo
R(gas)=43560AhS
h
(1/B
g
)R
fg
R(condensate)=43560AhS
h
(1/B
g
)
R
fg
CGR
Where:
A = areal extent of prospect in acres
H = average net pay in feet
= average porosity
S
h
= hydrocarbon saturation
B
oil
=initial oil formation volume factor in reservoir barrels/stock
tank barrels ( STB )
B
g
= initial gas formation volume factor in reservoir cubic
feet/surface cubic feet
R
fo
= recovery factor for oil
R
fg
= recovery factor for gas
CR = condensate recovery factor in STB/ft
3
7538 = conversion factor from acre-feet to barrels
43560 =conversion factor from acre-feet to cubic feet
Calculation steps
Step 1
Specify the parameter ranges ( 5%, 10% and 95%
probabilities of occurrence of each parameter )
Step 2
Calculate a mean and variance for each parameter
m(v) = 0.185P
5
(v) + 0.63 P
50
(v) + 0.185 P
95
(v)
m
2
(v) = 0.185 P
5
(v)
2
+ 0.63 P
50
(v)
2
+ 0.185
P
95
(v)
2

2
(v)=In[m
2
(v)/m(v)
2
]
Where
m(v)the mean of the natural logarithm for each parameter
If calculating the mean of areav = A, i.e. m(V) = m(A)

2
(v)the variance of the natural logarithm for each parameter
P
5
(v)the 5% probability of occurrence for each parameter
P
50
(v)the 5% probability of occurrence for each parameter
P
95
(v)the 5% probability of occurrence for each parameter
For example, the mean and variance of area in the table are:
m(A)=0.185225+0.63900+(0.1853300)=1219

2
(A)=ln[(0.185225)
2
+(0.63900)
2
+
(0.1853300)
2
]/(1219)
2

=0.5337
Step 3
Multiply the parameter means and sum the variance to obtain
the mean and variance of the reserve distribution
2[R(oil)] = 2(A) + 2( h ) + 2()+2( Sh ) + 2( 1/Bo )
+ 2( Rfo )
m[R(oil)] = 7758 m(A) m(h) m(p) m(Sh) m(1/Bo)
m(Rfo)
In the table
2[(oil)]=0.0000+0.5337+0.5591+0.0154+0.0360+0.0176
+0.0158+0.0075+0.0645
=1.2496
m[R(Oil)=77581219870.81110.77780.2519
0.78520.70000.3182
=23106bbl
Step 4
Calculate values for different probabilities of occrrence
R
x
= P
50
(R) e
z(x)
whereP
50
(R)m(R) e
-0.5 2
Z(x)the value or z factor corresponding
to the x-percentile of the standard normal distribution
In the table
Median (50% probability)=23e
-0.51.2496
=1210
6
bbl
Low(10% probability)= 12e
-1.2821.2496
=310
6
bbl
TABLE 6-1 THE PETROLEUM RESOURCES CALCULATION TABLE OF
THREE-POINT METHOD
COUNTRY/CONCESSION/PROSPECT
DEPTH TO OBJECTIVE
WELL COST
EVALUATION
52 12 3 1.2496 23 RESERVE10
6
BBL
0.37 0.31 0.26 0.0645 0.3182 0.45 0.32 0.18
RECOVERY FACTOR
0.74 0.70 0.66 0.0075 0.7000 0.8 0.7 0.6
1/FVF
0.85 0.78 0.72 0.0158 0.7852 0.92 0.8 0.6
HC SATURATION
0.27 0.25 0.23 0.0176 0.2519 0.31 0.25 0.2
POROSITY
/ / / 0.0360 0.7778 0.98 0.8 0.5
GEOMETRIC FACTOR
/ / / 0.0154 0.8171 0.96 0.83 0.63
NET TO GROSS
/ / / 0.5591 87 240 63 15 GROSS PAYFT
1533 934 569 0.5337 1219 3300 900 225 AREAACRES
/ / / 0.0000 7758 7758 7758 7758
CONVERSION
FACTOR
BBL/ACRE-FT
HIGH
(90%)
MEDIAN
(50%)
LOW
(10%)
VARIANC
E
MEAN 95% 50% 5%
OUTPUT INPUT
Prospect portfolio
(Ed Capen, 1992)
Calculation step
aDetermine 10% and 90% points for each prospect
in the portfolio with geological chance
bCompute mean and standard deviation of the natural
loganithms for each prospect including truncation
corrections
= ln10%X + 0.5ln90%Xln10%X
= (ln90%X) + ln10%X / 2

2
= (ln90%Xln10% / (2 1.28))
2
2 /
2
+
= e M
( ) ( ) [ ] ( ) ( ) [ ] { }
L H L H H L
z F z F z F z F M m
ln ln ln ln :
/ # # =
( ) / ln
ln
= L z
L
=
L L
z z
ln ln
#
( ) / ln
ln
= H z
H
=
H H
z z
ln ln
#
=1[1(0.6446930.161984z)
4.874
]6.158
( )
. approx
z F
2
e

mole=
Commercial chance= C
C
= C
g
[1F(L)]
Truncated var.= (0.894)(untruncated var. )e
(-0.0187)(truncation pt.)
where
is the mean of that clear area between L and H i.e
the mean of truncated lognormal distribution H
10% X = the prospect reserve at 10% cumulated frequency
90% X = the prospect reserve at 90% cumulated frequency
H L
m
:
Figure Truncated lognormal
c. Calculate mean and variance for the prospect portfolio
M
*
= (
pi
M
i
)/(1
qi
)
V
*
= [1/(1
qi
)]{
pi
M
i
2
e
i2
}
pi
2
Mi
2
[
qi
/(1
qi
)](
pi
M
i
)
2
}

2
= ln (V/M
2
+ 2)
Where:
M*and V* are the mean and variance of the resource distribution
of the prospect portfolio respectively
P
i
= Chance of success for each prospect, i = 1,2,3,n
q
i
= Chance of failure for each prospect= 1P
i
m
i
=Mean of resource distribution of each prospect

I
2
= Variance of resource distribution of each prospect
dCalculate 10% and 90% points for the prospect portfolio
10% X = e

1.28*
90% X = e

+ 1.28*
1.4.3 Principles and procedures
for prospect assessment
Play delineation
Collect all relevant geophysical and geological
data
Prospect identification and mapping
Establish a geological model for the prospect
Geological risk assessment
Estimates of the prospects resource potential
Calibration of the probability of discovery
An analysis of potential interdependency on other
prospects
Input to economic assessment
Part 2
The CCOP Petroleum Classification System
The CCOP Guidelines for Risk Assessment of
Petroleum Prospects
2.1 The CCOP Petroleum Classification
System
Purpose
This system is a supplement, and is not supposed to replace
any national classification system that is established in the
CCOP member countries.
-act as a guide for those member countries that have not yet
worked out their own system.
-contribute to a common understanding and future
standardization of terms and definition used in resource
classification in CCOP region.
-improve all communications on resource across borderlines
and also be a vital tool for common promotion activities of
CCOP region
The CCOP
Petroleum Classification System
Basic Principles
the petroleum resources should be considered as a
whole.
possess clear and consistent definitions of the
terms.
general and flexible guidelines.
clear boundaries between different levels
be easy to be used as well as for the governmental
agencies as for the petroleum industry.
The CCOP
Petroleum Classification System
Framework of CCOP petroleum resource classification
system
- be entirely based on recoverable petroleum resources.
-comprises the two major parts: undiscovered recoverable and
discovered recoverable resources.
-the undiscovered recoverable resources are further
subdivided into speculative and hypothetical resources
-the discovered recoverable resources further subdivided into
potential recoverable resources and reserves.
-for further subdivision of the reserves, the CCOP Petroleum
Classification System has adopted the Reserve
Classification as described and published by the SPE and
WPC in March 1997
Undiscovered petroleum resources
Speculative resources
Speculative resources is referred to the unmapped
prospects that have not yet been mapped in the basin. The
unmapped resources are estimated by play assessment
methods.A statistical aggregation of all play assessments
will give the estimate of the total undiscovered resources.
Hypothetical resources
Hypothetical resources comprise resources which are
mapped in the form of prospects, but which have not yet
been discovered by drilling.The resources are given a
probability of discovery. The estimates of the total
hypothetical resources are given by statistic aggregation
of the risk-weighted resource estimate of each prospect in
a play or an basin.
Discovered petroleum resources
Potential Resources
Potential resources is defined as the discovered resources that are
recoverable but not economically producible at a specific data due to
economic, political, environmental or technological reasons.
-Accumulations---such as marginal fields, relinquished fields, fields
under dispute, or reservoirs with inconclusive data.
- Accumulations that will probably be commercially recoverable in the
near future/short term.
-Accumulations that have no plans for developments in the near
future/shore term.
-Improved oil recovery
-Non-producible reservoir
Discovered petroleum resources
Reserves
Unproved reserves
Unproved reserves are based on geologic and/or
engineering data similar to that used in estimates of
proved reserves, but technical ,contractual, economic, or
regulatory uncertainties preclude such reserves being
classified as proved
Possible reserves
Possible reserves are those unproved reserves which
analysis of geologic and engineering data suggests are less
likely to be recoverable than probable reserves.
Probable reserves
Probable reserves are those unproved reserves which
analysis of geologic and engineering data suggests are
more likely than not to be recoverable.
Discovered petroleum resources
Proved reserves
Proved reserves are those quantities of petroleum
which , by analysis of geological and engineering
data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to
be commercially recoverable, from a given data
forward, from known reservoirs and under current
economic conditions, operating methods, and
government regulations
Discovered petroleum resources
Proved reserves
Proved reserves are those quantities of petroleum
which, by analysis of geological and engineering
data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty, to
be commercially recoverable, from a given data
forward, from known reservoir and under current
economic conditions, operating methods, and
government regulations.
2.2 The CCOP Guidelines for Risk
Assessment of Petroleum Prospects
Introduction
The probability concept
Individual prospect probabilities
Conditional probabilities
Play probabilities
Calibration of probability factors
Purpose for risk assessment
The purpose of risk assessment in petroleum exploration is to
estimate the probability of discovery prior to drilling of a
mapped prospect.
economic evaluation
profitability studies
exploration strategy
assessment of undiscovered resources
The CCOP risk assessment guidelines provide general
procedures for how to perform risk assessment
Principles for risk assessment
Geochronological risk assessment is
achieved by evaluating the relevant
geological processes and events in a logical
time sequence.
In some cases, adjustments to the guidelines
may be necessary in light of local
geological knowledge of relevant areas and
according to national requirements
Principles for risk assessment
In the risk assessment it may be useful to
establish a set of general qualitative
description for the relative probability scale.
Risk assessment
The probability of discovery is defined as the
product of the following major probability factors,
each of which must be evaluated with respect to
presence and effectives:
Probability of reservoir
Probability of trap
Probability of hydrocarbon charge
Probability of retention of hydrocarbon after
accumulation
Probability of effective reservoir
P1=P1a x P1b
P1a: Probability of existence of reservoir facies with
minimum net thickness and net/gross-ratio
Important factors:
depositional environment
data reliability
P1b: Probability of effectiveness of the reservoir,
with respect to minimum porosity, permeability
and hydrocarbon saturation
Probability of effective trap
P2=P2a x P2b
P2a: probability of presence of the mapped
structure with a minimum rock volume as
applied in the volume calculation
P2b: probability of effective seal mechanism
for the mapped structure
Petroleum charge
P3 =P3b x P3b
P3a: probability of effective source rock in
term of the existence of sufficient volume of
mature source rock of adequate area of the
drainage area of the mapped structure.
P3b: Probability of effective migration of
hydrocarbons from the source rock to the
mapped structure.
Retention after accumulation
( P4 )
In order to avoid double-risking, we have
to distinguish carefully between which
factors affect the sealing mechanism and
which affect retention after accumulation
Risk assessment procedure
Collect all relevant geophycical and geological data.
Prospect identification and mapping.
Establish a geological model for the prospect
Estimates of the prospects resource potential.
Each prospect is given a value of probability of
discovery.
Calibration of the probability of discovery on the basis of
success ratios, previous exploration history, etc.
Presentation and discussion with an internal expert panel is
desirable .
An analysis of potential interdependency on other
prospects under evaluation should also be carried out
(Bayes equation or theorem)
Input to economic assessment
2.3 Other Guidelines for risk assessment
Risk factors
CCOP reservoir, trap, charge,
retention after accumulation
NPD reservoir, trap, source and accumulation,
retention after accumulation
Fina closure,seal, reservoir,charge
USGS hydrocarbon source, timing, migration, potential
reservoir facies,
tapping mechanism,effective porosity,
hydrocarbon accumulation
Chevron source rock, reservoir,trap,timing/migration
D.A. White trap-seal-timing
reservoir-porosity-permeability
source-maturation
preservation-HC quality-recovery
The Chevron guideline for risk
assessment
The probability of geologic success (Pg ) is
obtained by multiplying the probabilities of
occurrence of each of the four factors of the
play concept
Pg=Psource x Preservoir xPtrap x Pdynamics
(Otis and Schneidermann, 1997 )
Probability Factors
A. Source Evaluation
1.Capacity for HC charge
2. Source rock maturity
3. Other
B. reservoir quality
1.Presence
2.Quality (for stab.flow)
3.Other
Probability Factors
C. Trap integrity
1. Trap definition
2. Trap characteristics
3. Seal- vertical&lateral
D. Timing/migration
1. Timing
2. Migration pathways
3. Preservation
4. other
Five broad categories
1.Very low risk ( Pg between 0.5 and 0.99 )
All risk factors are favorable. This category is
associate with wells that test proven plays adjacent
to ( <5km ) existing production.
2. Low risk ( Pg between 0.25 and 0.5 )
All risk factors are encouraging to favorable.this
category is associated with well that test proven
plays near ( 5-10 km ) existing production.
Five broad categories
3. Moderate risk (Pg between 0.125 and 0.25)
Two or three risk factors are encouraging to
favorableone or two factors are
encouraging or neutral. This category is
associated with wells testing new plays in
producing basins or proven plays far from
( >10km) existing production.
Five broad categories
4.High risk ( Pg between 0.063 and 0.12 )
One or two risk factors are encouraging
Two or three factors are neutral or
encouraging to neutral. This category is
often associated with wells testing new
plays in producing basins far from( >20km)
existing production or proven plays in an
unproved area
Five broad categories
5. Very high risk (Pg between 0.01 and
0.063 )
Two to three risk factors are no better than
neutral, with one or two factors
questionable or unfavorable. This category
is usually associated with wells testing new
plays in an unproved area far from (>50km)
existing production.
Geologic risking guide for
prospects and plays
David A. White
1993
Adequacies of essential geologic controls of oil & gas for play/prospect
PLAY------ ----- PROSPECT
a.--- trap seal - timing h.---x a=---p.
closure volume ( area and corrected height, structural
or stratigraphic)
seal ( top, lateral; no serious leakage by faults, fracture)
timing ( particularly relative to migration)
b.--- reservoir porosity- permeability i.--- x b=---q.
reservoir facies thickness ( no nondeposition, facies change
truncation,or faulting; adequate net/gross)
porosity ( primary or secondary, not plugged or cemented)
permeability & continuity
c.--- source maturation - migration j.--- x c=---r
organic quantity ( area,thickness, total organic carbon)
& quantity (organic-matter type)
maturation (sufficient time,temperature; not overcooked )
migration (primary or expulsion; secondary,source to trap)
d.--- preservation HC quality recovery k.---x d=---s.
preservation ( no bad flushing, biodegradation, diffusion)
hydrocarbon quality & concentration ( oil not too viscous or
of too low a saturation; gas not too dispersed or diluted by
inerts:oil or gas column not too thin)
recovery( drive, pressure, depth)
e.---play chance = a x b x c x d
f.---play success ratio( from grading, history, or look-alike)
g. average prospect chance = e x f =---
Conditional prospect success factor = h x i x j x k =---m.
Overall prospect chance of adequacy = e x m = p x q x r x s =---t
Geological risk analysis of
individual prospects
-the NPD procedure
The probability of discovery
( POD )
POD=P1 x P2 x P3 x P4
P1-Probability of efficient reservoir
P2-Probability of efficient trap
P3-probability of efficient source and
accumulation
P4-Probability of efficient retention after
accumulation
Probability of efficient reservoir
( P1 )
P1=P1a (modified by P1b)
P1a = probability of existence of efficient reservoir facies
with minimum net reservoir thickness ( net/gross-ratio,
thickness ) as applied the the resource assessment
P1b = probability of efficient porosity
Important factors
well data
type of facies and facies changes
depth and diagenesis
porosity and permeability plot
porosity maps
seismic velocities
Probability of efficient trap ( P2 )
P1a= P2b x P2b
P1a= probability of existence of the mapped
structural/geometrical body with a
minimum rock volume as presented the
resource assessment.
P2b = probability of efficient seal of the
mapped structural/geometrical body
Probability of efficient source
and accumulation ( P3 )
P3 = P3a x P3b
P3a = probability of existence of sufficient
volume of mature source rock of necessary
quality located in the drainage area for the
mapped structure.
P3b = probability of efficient migration of
hydrocarbons from the source rock to the
mapped structure.
Efficient retention after
accumulation ( P4 )
Probability of effective retention of
hydrocarbons in the trap from the time of
migration and until today.
Important factors:
biodegradation
erosion of the subsurface
tilting
reactivation of related faults
A modal-based approach to
evaluation of exploration
opportunities
B.A.Duff and D.hall