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Problem 9:
(a) Since an Ace cannot be a face card, hence AB= and therefore A and B are mutually
exclusive.
However, BC={J, Q, K} and AC={A} , meaning that (1) B and C are NOT
mutually exclusive, and (2) A and C are NOT mutually exclusive.
(b) Pr(BC)=Pr({J, Q, K})=3/52.
Problem 10: (d) Based on the De Morgans Law, A
c
U B
c
= (AB)
c
.
Hence Pr(A
c
U B
c
)=1-Pr(AB) = 1-Pr(A)Pr(B)= 1-0.5x0.4=0.8.
Problem 11: Want to compute Pr(AUB | (A
c
B
c
C
c
)
c
). Now,
Pr(A
c
B
c
C
c
) =Pr(A
c
)Pr(B
c
C
c
) (because of independence)
=(1-1/4)x[1-Pr(B U C)]
=(3/4)x[1-(Pr(B)+Pr(C)-Pr(BC))] (using the addition law of probability)
=(3/4)x[1-1/3-1/2+1/8]=7/32
2 / 1 ) 3 / 1 )( 4 / 1 ( 3 / 1 4 / 1
ce) independen of (because ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( Also,
B A B A B A B A B A
Hence
25
16
32 / 7 1
2 / 1
) ) Pr((
) Pr(
) ) Pr((
) ) ( ) Pr((
) ) ( | Pr(
c c c c c c c c
c c c c
c c c c
C B A
B A
C B A
C B A B A
C B A B A
Problem 12:
(a) Let S be the event that the mother actually smoke, and D be the event that a positive
report (on mothers smoking) was made by her daughter.
8558 . 0
1126 6685
6685
) Pr( ) Pr(
) Pr(
) Pr(
) Pr(
) | Pr(
D S D S
D S
D
D S
D S PV
c
(b) 9500 . 0
23227 1222
23227
) Pr( ) Pr(
) Pr(
) Pr(
) Pr(
) | Pr(
C c C
C C
C
C C
C C
D S D S
D S
D
D S
D S PV
Problem 13: (b) 1 and 3 only. (3) is true because given AUB = , we have Pr(AUB)=1,
which gives Pr(A)+Pr(B)=1+Pr(AB)1.
(1) is true because Pr(A)+Pr(B)1 => Pr(B) 1-Pr(A)=Pr(A
c
).
(2) is false because Pr(C|A)Pr(A)+Pr(C|B)Pr(B)=Pr(CA)+ Pr(CB) = [Pr(C)- Pr(CA
c
)]+
Pr(CB) = Pr(C)+ [Pr(CB)- Pr(CA
c
)] Pr(C)
Page 3/3
Problem 14: (b) 3 only
1. is not true because Pr(A|B
c
) Pr(A
c
|B) in general.
2. is not true because Pr(A|B)=Pr(B|A) Pr(AB)/Pr(B)= Pr(AB)/Pr(A) Pr(A)=Pr(B).
3. is true because Pr(B)= Pr(AB)+ Pr(A
c
B) Pr(AB).
Problem 15: Let C be the event that A is in class, and D is the event that B is in class,
Pr({at least one student in class})=Pr(C D)
=Pr(C)+Pr(D)-Pr(C D) by the addition law of probability
=0.8+0.6-0.48=0.92
Therefore probability that A is in class given at least one students is in class is given by
Pr(C|C D)=Pr(C (C D))/Pr(C D)= Pr(C)/Pr(C D)=0.8/0.92=0.8696
Problem 16:
(a) Let D be the event of having disease, test+ be the event of test positive and test- be the
event of test negative.
Pr(D)=0.02, Pr(test+|D)=0.99, Pr(test+|ND)=0.005. Using the Bayes rule,
Pr(D|test+) = Pr(D)xPr(test+|D)/[ Pr(D)xPr(test+|D)+ Pr(ND)xPr(test+|ND)]
= (0.02x0.99)/(0.02x0.99+0.98x0.005)=0.0198/0.0247=0.8016
(b) Pr(D|test-) = Pr(D)xPr(test-|D)/[ Pr(D)xPr(test-|D)+ Pr(ND)xPr(test-|ND)]
= (0.02x0.01)/(0.02x0.01+0.98x0.995)=0.0002/0.9753=0.000205
Therefore RR= Pr(D|test+)/Pr(D|test-)=0.8016/0.000205=3909
Since RR >>1, the test and the disease are higher dependent with each other. Therefore,
the test is useful in indicating the disease.
Problem 17:
(a) Let HIV be the event of HIV positive from the high risk group, test+ be the event of test
positive and test- be the event of test negative. Then Pr(HIV)=0.5, Pr(test+|HIV)=0.999
and Pr(test-|no HIV)=0.9999. Based on the Bayes Rule,
Pr (HIV|test+)=Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)/[Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)+Pr(test+|no HIV)Pr(no HIV)]
=(0.999)(0.5)/[0.999(0.5)+(1-0.9999)(0.5)]=9990/9991
(b) If Pr(HIV)=0.1, then
Pr (HIV|test+)=Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)/[Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)+Pr(test+|no HIV)Pr(no HIV)]
=(0.999)(0.1)/[0.999(0.1)+(1-0.9999)(0.9)]=9990/9999
If Pr(HIV)=0.01, then
Pr (HIV|test+)=Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)/[Pr(test+|HIV)Pr(HIV)+Pr(test+|no HIV)Pr(no HIV)]
=(0.999)(0.01)/[0.999(0.01)+(1-0.9999)(0.99)]=9990/10089
In conclusion, when the prevalence rate (i.e. Pr(HIV)) decreases from 0.50 to 0.10 and
0.01, Pr(HIV|test+) decreases as well, suggesting that the a positive test result becomes
less accurate/reliable.