STPM 950/2

TRIAL STPM MATHEMATICS M (SELANGOR) SMK Seafield, Subang

Section A [45 marks]
Answer all questions in this section.

1. The following table shows the amount of time spent by a random sample of 95 students
on their mobile phones per day.
Time spent per day, t minutes Number of students
5 0 < t 11
10 5 < t 18
20 10 < t 32
30 20 < t 18
50 30 < t 12
60 50 < t 4

(a) Calculate estimates of the mean, median and standard deviation of the time spent
per day on mobile phones by these students. [7 marks]
(b) Calculate Pearsons coefficient of skewness. Comment on the shape of the
distribution. [3 marks]

2. A survey of children in a child care center found that 58% of the children are girls.
5.2% of the girls and 7.8% of the boys write using left hands. A child is selected at random.
(a) Find the probability that the child is a girl who writes using left hand. [2 marks]
(b) Find the probability that the child writes using left hand. [2 marks]
(c) If the child writes using left hand, find the probability that the child is a boy.
[2 marks]

3. The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is given in the following
table.
x 1 0 1 2
( ) x X P = 0.15 0.40 2k k

(a) Find the value of the constant k. [2 marks]
(b) Calculate ) ( X E and ) ( Var X . [5 marks]

STPM 950/2 2

4. A housing consultant believes that the number of houses sold in a region for a given
year is related to the mortgage rate in that period. He collected the following data.
Year Mortgage interest rate, X Housing sales index, Y
1990 12 80
1991 10 90
1992 8 105
1993 6 115
1994 7 125
1995 8 120
1996 10 115
1997 14 85
1998 13 70
1999 11 80

(a) Plot a scatter diagram for the above data. [2 marks]
(b) State, with a reason, whether the scatter diagram in (a) displays a positive or a
negative correlation. [2 marks]
(c) Calculate the coefficient of determination. Interpret your answer. [4 marks]

5. The following table shows the average prices and daily sales of fish, prawns and crabs
for January and February 2013.
Price (RM / kg) Total Sales (RM)
Item
January February January February
Fish 5.68 5.99 198.80 209.65
Prawn 24.50 28.30 220.50 283.00
Crab 31.80 35.40 333.90 424.80

(a) Taking January 2013 as the base period, calculate the simple aggregate price
index for February 2013. Comment on your answer. [3 marks]
(b) Taking January 2013 as the base period and the total sales for February as the
weights, calculate the weighted average of price relatives for February 2013. Comment on
your answer. [3 marks]



STPM 950/2

3
6. The following time series plot shows the quarterly revenues (RM000,000) for a toy
production company from 1997 to 1999.













(a) Comment on the basic trend and the seasonal variations. [2 marks]
(b) State, with a reason, whether an additive or a multiplicative model is more
suitable to be used to decompose the time series.
[2 marks]
(c) The quarterly seasonal variations for the above data are given in the table below.
Quarter 1 2 3 4
Seasonal variation 0.6895 k 0.6427 2.0761

(i) Determine the seasonal variation for the second quarter, k. [2 marks]
(ii) Interpret the seasonal variation for the fourth quarter. [1 mark]











STPM 950/2 4

Section B [15 marks]
Answer any one question in this section.

7. A continuous random variable X is defined by
( ) ( )
3
3 0
0

, 0
, 3
, 1
3
>
<

= >
x
x
x
x k x X P
(a) Show that ( )
27
8
1 = > X P . [3 marks]
(b) Find the cumulative distribution function of X, and sketch its graph. [3 marks]
Three independent observations of X are taken.
(c) Find the probability that at least one of the observations is greater than 1.
[4 marks]
729 independent observations of X are taken.
(d) Using normal distribution as an approximation, find the probability that more
than 229 of the observations are greater than 1. [5 marks]

8. The Ace Appliance Store sells a variety of electronic equipment and home appliances.
The following table shows the quarterly sales (RM100,000) for the last four years.
Quarter
Year
I II III IV
2009 5.3 4.1 6.8 6.7
2010 4.8 3.8 5.6 6.8
2011 4.3 3.8 5.7 6.2
2012 5.6 4.6 6.1 5.3

(a) Calculate the centred four-quarter moving averages. [2 marks]
(b) Using a multiplicative model, calculate the adjusted seasonal variation for each of
the four quarters. [4 marks]
(c) Deseasonalise the data and find the least squares regression equation using the
deseasonalised data. [6 marks]
(d) Forecast the sales of the store for the fourth quarter of year 2013. [3 marks]


STPM 950/2

5
ANSWER TRIAL STPM MATHEMATICS M (SELANGOR)SMK Seafield, Subang
No. Answer scheme Marks Total
1(a)








(b)
Mean, 87 . 18
95
5 . 1792
= = x minutes
Median, 78 . 15 10
32
29 5 . 47
10 =

+ = m
Standard deviation,
25 . 50831
2
=

fx
38 . 13
95
5 . 1792
95
25 . 50831
2
= |

\
|
= s
Pearsons coefficient of skewness
( )
6928 . 0
38 . 13
78 . 15 87 . 18 3
=

=

The distribution is positively skewed.
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10 marks
2(a)


(b)


(c)
P(the child is a girl who writes using left hand)
= 0.052 0.58
= 0.03016
P(the child writes using left hand)
= 0.03016 + 0.078 0.42
=0.06292
P(the child is a boy,the child writes using left hand)
5207 . 0
06292 . 0
42 . 0 078 . 0
=

=


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6 marks
3(a)

(b)


0.15 + 0.40 + 2k + k = 1
k = 0.15
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 15 . 0 2 30 . 0 1 40 . 0 0 15 . 0 1 + + + = X E
= 0.45
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 15 . 0 2 30 . 0 1 40 . 0 0 15 . 0 1
2 2 2 2 2
+ + + = X E
= 1.05
( ) ( )
2
45 . 0 05 . 1 Var = X
= 0.8475
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7 marks
STPM 950/2 6
4(a)












(b)


(c)



















Negative correlation.
As the mortgage interest rate increases the housing sales index
decreases.

= = = = 985 , 1043 , 99 , 10
2
y x x n

= = 9355 , 100525
2
xy y
Coefficient of determination,
( ) ( )( ) | |
( ) ( ) | | ( ) ( ) | |
2 2
2
2
985 100525 10 99 1043 10
985 99 9355 10


= r
= 0.7136
Hence, 71.36% of the variation in the number of houses sold is
accounted for by the variation in the mortgage interest rate.




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9 marks
5(a)





(b)
Simple aggregate price index for February 2013
44 . 112
100
80 . 31 50 . 24 68 . 5
40 . 35 30 . 28 99 . 5
=

+ +
+ +
=

The price of the seafood has increased by 12.44% from January
to February 2013.
Weighted average of price relatives for February 2013
27 . 111
100
80 . 424 00 . 283 65 . 209
80 . 424
80 . 31
40 . 35
283
50 . 24
30 . 28
65 . 209
68 . 5
99 . 5
=

+ +
|

\
|
+ |

\
|
+ |

\
|

=

The price of the seafood has increased by 11.27% from January
to February 2013.

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6 marks
6(a)


(b)

(c)(i)

(ii)
The time series has an increasing trend.
The revenue is the highest in the fourth quarter each year but
rather low in the first three quarters.
An additive model is more suitable because the amplitude of
the seasonal variations is almost constant as the trend rises.
7439 . 0
0 0761 . 2 6427 . 0 6895 . 0
=
= + +
k
k

2.0761 means that the revenue in the fourth quarter is
RM2.0761 million above the trend value.
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7 marks
STPM 950/2

7
7(a)







(b)

















(c)








(d)
( )
27
1
1 0 3
3
=
=
k
k

( ) ( )
3
1 3
27
1
1 = > X P

27
8
=
( ) ( )

=
, 1
, 3
27
1
1
, 0
3
x x F
3
3 0
0
>
<

x
x
x














Let X = the number of observations greater than 1.
Then, |

\
|
27
8
, 3 B ~ X .
( ) ( ) 0 1 1 = = X P X P

6515 . 0
27
19
1
3
=
|

\
|
=

|

\
|
27
8
, 729 B ~ X .
Hence, ( ) 152 , 216 N ~ X .
( ) ( ) 5 . 229 229 > = > X P X P
( )
1368 . 0
095 . 1
152
216 5 . 229
=
> =
|
|

\
|
> =
Z P
Z P


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15 marks



2
1.5
1
0.5
-0.5
-1 1 2 3 4
0 3
1
( ) x F y =
y
x
STPM 950/2 8
8(a)






















(b)



























Year
Quarter
Sales
(RM100,000),
Y
4-pt
moving
average
Centred
moving
average,
T
S=Y/T
1 5.3
2 4.1
3 6.8 5.725 5.6625 1.2009
2009
4 6.7 5.600 5.5625 1.2045
1 4.8 5.525 5.3750 0.8930
2 3.8 5.225 5.2375 0.7255
3 5.6 5.250 5.1875 1.0795
2010
4 6.8 5.125 5.1250 1.3268
1 4.3 5.125 5.1375 0.8370
2 3.8 5.150 5.0750 0.7488
3 5.7 5.000 5.1625 1.1041
2011
4 6.2 5.325 5.4250 1.1429
1 5.6 5.525 5.5750 1.0045
2 4.6 5.625 5.5125 0.8345
3 6.1 5.400
2012
4 5.3

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 1.2009 1.2045
2010 0.8930 0.7255 1.0795 1.3268
2011 0.8370 0.7488 1.1041 1.1429
2012 1.0045 0.8345
Mean
Seasonal
Variation
0.9115 0.7696 1.1282 1.2247
Adjusting
factor
0.9916 0.9916 0.9916 0.9916
Adjusted
Seasonal
Variation
0.9038 0.7631 1.1187 1.2144


Adjusted seasonal variations are:
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0.904 0.763 1.119 1.214

















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STPM 950/2

9
(c)

































(d)
t Y S
Deseasonalised
Series, y=Y/S
1 5.3 0.9038 5.8641
2 4.1 0.7631 5.3728
3 6.8 1.1187 6.0785
4 6.7 1.2144 5.5171
5 4.8 0.9038 5.3109
6 3.8 0.7631 4.9797
7 5.6 1.1187 5.0058
8 6.8 1.2144 5.5995
9 4.3 0.9038 4.7577
10 3.8 0.7631 4.9797
11 5.7 1.1187 5.0952
12 6.2 1.2144 5.1054
13 5.6 0.9038 6.1961
14 4.6 0.7631 6.0280
15 6.1 1.1187 5.4528
16 5.3 1.2144 4.3643


= = = = 7076 . 85 , 1496 , 136 , 16
2
y t t n

= 6733 . 719 ty
( ) ( )( )
( ) ( )
2
136 1496 16
7076 . 85 136 6733 . 719 16

= b
02600 . 0 =
( ) |

\
|
|

\
|
=
16
136
02600 . 0
16
7076 . 85
a
58 . 5 =
Least squares regression equation is t y 0260 . 0 58 . 5 = .

4
th
quarter of 2013, t = 20.
( ) 20 0260 . 0 58 . 5 = y
= 5.06
2144 . 1 06 . 5

= Y
= 6.145
Forecast sales = RM6.145 (100,000)










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4)











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15 marks