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Our recenlIy comIeled survey shovs a vide-oen race in lhe ucoming 3
rd
CongressionaI Dislricl
eIeclion. Congressman }oe Heck earns veak |ob ralings and Iess lhan 40% of lhe vole and Ieads by
onIy a singIe-digil margin againsl firsl-lime candidale Irin iIbray. Moreover, iIbray moves inlo a
narrov Iead afler volers hear both candidates positive messages, indicaling lhal she is veII
osilioned lo vin lhis loss-u race if she can raise lhe resources needed lo communicale lo 3
rd

Dislricl volers.

)'*+&,- K#*A2 K1<L "# M122 "5,( JHN O. "51 P#D1 Q(A M1,A2 Q.D1& P#D1&2 M1,&( Q+#8D )#D5
/,(A'A,D12

Heck slarls oul in an uncommonIy
veak osilion for a lhird-lerm
incumbenl. He enlers lhe sring
vilh |usl 39% of lhe vole, onIy
eighl oinls ahead of iIbray al
31%. Three in len (30%) are
undecided.

Moreover, Hecks 39% comes with
an aIready consoIidaled base he
is garnering 83% of lhe
ReubIican vole, vhiIe iIbray
garners 68% of Democrals a
number lhal is sure lo grov afler
more Democrals Iearn aboul
iIbray. IuIIy 55% of indeendenls are undecided. This race is vide oen.
C-@DA0E F4G.& H2'4 I1. J.0K L;'.A
M4'.A& N.0A OA4? P0B1 602K-K0'.
31%
39%
30%
42%
41%
17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Bilbray Heck Undecided
Congressional Vote Initial to Post-Paragraph
The MeIIman Grou
May 2014
Iage 2 of 2
Bilbrays strong potential is evident in a huge gain in her vole share afler volers Iearn more aboul
her candidacy. iIbray moves inlo a 42%-41% Iead afler resondenls heard aragrah Ienglh
descrilions of bolh candidales
1
her vote increases by 11 points, while Hecks increases by a mere
2 oinls.

P#ters Offer Weak Appraisals of Hecks Performance in Congress

Congressman Hecks problems are driven imorlanlIy by negalive vievs of his erformance in
office. OnIy 32% of volers give him a osilive |ob raling, comared lo 45% vho give him negalive
ralings. He aIso earns veak ralings on a number of imorlanl descrilive lrails he is seen as
heIing big business and lhe veaIlhy al lhe exense of lhe middIe cIass by a 9-oinl margin, being
arl of lhe robIem in Washinglon by a 9-oinl margin, and oosing Iresidenl Obama loo much
by a subslanliaI 15-oinl margin.

-----

Q+#8D "51 61**4,( 7&#89

The MeIIman Grou, named Pollster of the Year three times by the American Association of
IoIilicaI ConsuIlanls, has rovided sohislicaled oinion research and slralegic advice lo oIilicaI
leaders, government agencies, corporations and the nations leading public interest groups for
lhirly years. The MeIIman Grou has conducled lens of lhousands of inlervievs and scores of
focus groups in Nevada in recent years, including for Senator Harry Reids winning campaign in
2010. As described in a K&% L+0&% M2' article headlined, How Harry Reids Pollster Got It Right,
The MeIIman Grous surveys vere lhe onIy ones vhich correclIy ro|ecled Reids viclory.



1 R#1 K1<L, a Republican, currently represents Nevadas Third District in Congress. Heck has served Nevadans as a
hysician, Army Reservisl, and communily voIunleer. In Congress, Doctor Heck fought Obamacares government
lakeover of heaIlh care lhal hurls alienls and culs $500 biIIion doIIars from Medicare. He sonsored IegisIalion lo
slreamIine federaI vorkforce deveIomenl rograms, culling red lae and gelling Americans back lo vork. He
cracked dovn on fraud and abuse in federal spending and terminated wasteful programs that cost taxpayers but dont
vork. Heck aIso heIed undervaler homeovners and inlroduced IegisIalion lo give lhose vho Iosl a home lo
forecIosure a second chance al homeovnershi. Heck is an indeendenl voice in gridIocked Washinglon vho uls lhe
inleresls of Nevada famiIies and homeovners firsl.

%&'( )'*+&,-: a Democral and lhird generalion Nevadan, is a former Senior Advisor to Nevadas Attorney General, a
Mom and a communily Ieader vho founded and heIed run lhree non-rofil organizalions= iIbray says gridIocked
Washington politicians put their own interests first. Bilbray says its time to put politics aside, put country first and do
whats right for Nevada. When she and her doctor husband set up a free clinic, they didnt ask anyone about their
arly, lhey |usl heIed cure and revenl iIIness. In Congress, iIbray viII reach across arly Iines lo soIve robIems
Iike crealing |obs by culling red lae, requiring banks lo Iend, and roviding lax culs lo businesses lhal creale |obs in
Nevada, vhiIe ending lax breaks for cororalions lhal move |obs overseas. iIbray knovs lhal making Washinglon
vork for Nevada means vorking across arly Iines.