Burma/Myanma: Burma/Myanma:

Transitioning to Twilight Zone Transitioning to Twilight Zone

Zarni
Kuala Lumpur
19 October 2010
fanon2005@gmail.com
An observation that has survived the
test of time
2
14 May 1990
San Francisco Chronicle
(Reprint from NYTimes)
The Fundamentals
Total Population : 58 million
On-flow of migrants: 3-4 million in SEA alone
Refugees and IDPs: 0.6 million (Asias largest)
POLITICS
Asias Oldest Military Dictatorship since 1962, with
the 2
nd
largest army in Southeast Asia
Regressive Feudal Model
Kleptocratic in nature
DOMESTIC INSTABILITY since March 1948
Armed Conflicts: All Major Ethnic groups including
Myanma/Bamah, Karen, Karenni, Kachin, Shan, Mon, &
Arakanese
Political Resistance: students, monks, laborers, farmers, and
intelligentsia , as well as the diasporas
ECONOMY - GDP US$20 billion (Thailand
$200 bn)
STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY
Agri 43% of GDP today (47% of GDP in 1938-
39)
A classic Resource Curse - oil, gas, hydropower and
mining (copper and nickel) sectors (FDI - China, Thailand,
India, HK, S. Korea, France, USA, Malaysia, Singapore,
Japan, Australia, etc.) US$ 8 billion 2010
Defense Expenditure :40-60%; Social 1-2% of GDP
EDUCATION/SOCIAL/HEALTH
Primary School Drop-out rate: 1/3
Life Expectancy : 63 (Cambodia 62)
Infant Mortality: among the highest in the world
Corruption: Bottom of Transparency I.s Index
3
Transition from What? To Where?
From Direct Military Dictatorship with pre-colonial
feudal characteristics
To Constitutional Military Rule with a select mix of
Feudalism and Crony-Capitalism
Towards an economic and political Twilight Zone
(with a perpetual econ crisis, inherent structural instability, unresolved
ethnic conflicts and intra-military feuds over loots, turfs and power)
4
Regressive Constitutionalism
Constitutional Monarchy
1) to curb the role, right and authority of the Monarch
and Monarchy
(Indirect) Military Rule with a Constitution or
Constitutionalized Military Rule
1) to legalize the primary of the Armed Forces and its
Commander-in-Chief over the rest of the society
2) to establish a military apartheid (where soldiers are
more equal)
5
The State of the Union of Myanmar:
Cancer in Its Advanced Stage
Unending armed ethnic and political conflicts since
independence in Jan 1948, and the near certainty of unraveling
ceasefires
Widespread Poverty
Rape of the Environment and Depletion of Human Resources
Militarized State with its Zero-Sum Political Design and the
Resultant Structural Political Instability
Rentier State (oil, autonomous and autocratic) and its
Kleptocratic Economic Order
Revival of feudal power relations (leadership and followership)
Widespread Corruption (eating the kingdom/country)
The collapsed public services (edu, health, social, etc.)
The Absence of Rule of Law and Downward Accountability
What is under the militarys control?
1) economic life of all families (as well as physical movements such as
overnight visits)
2) religio-cultural organizations (monasteries, churches, etc.)
3) social and intellectual organizations (including funeral service
organizations, movies, plays, songs, paintings, libraries, schools, and Internet
cafes)
5) media organizations (print, broadcast, and Internet)
6) political parties (e.g., political parties)
7) the economy and commercial agents (Chambers of Commerce, cronies,
etc)
8) professional societies
9) laborers and farmers
10) women, mothers and childrens organizations
11) ethnicity-based organizations
12) foreign organizations (in-country INGOs, UN agencies, etc).
7
Generals Pledge:
We will hold elections. But we promise to shut down electoral politics
by any means necessary, whenever we loose.
1960 the militarys Caretaker Government under Ne Win attempted to influence the
election in favor of the pro-military party led by Kyaw Nyein and Ba Swe, U Nus rivals.
The pro-military party defeated and the military lied low.
1962 the decisive military take-over, ending the electoral politics. The second coup .
Jailed all prominent politicians, judges, and newspaper editors, including Prime
Minister U Nu GAP between the last and first ever multiparty election: years
May 1990 Elections. Jailed all prominent dissidents, including ASSK and her
colleagues including former Chief of Staff Gen.Tin Oo and journalist Win Tin, as well
as former PM U Nu BEFORE the election. Refused to transfer power OR work with
the election-winners AFTER the election -
November 2010. Upcoming election. Jailed over 2,100 dissidents, including ASSK. Tin
Oo and Win Tin (83 and 81 respectively) not behind bars (having served 10 and 19
years respectively). NLD and other genuine opposition parties dissolved.
8
Institutions come and go (1962-88)
Revolutionary Council
the Burma Socialist Program Party
the civilianized leadership (of ex-generals)
a new Socialist Constitution
the transformation of the military-based party to the
mass-based party (Burma Socialist Program Party
government)
creation of post-election institutions (such as a Peoples
Parliament, a Peoples Court, a Council of State, and a
Council of Peoples Inspectors)
9
Class formation, expansion and
reproduction is solid.
1). refeudalization of the countrys military class and political culture (e.g.,
eating the territories, labor, resources, etc.)
2). (paradoxically) removal of any cultural/traditional constraints on feudal
rulers conduct (e.g., no more righteous rulership) (anti-Buddhist rulers =
monk murderers and torturers)
3). creation of a crony capitalist economy via a pool of its own economic
agents (better known as cronies)
4). class consolidation and reproduction of the ruling kleptocratic soldiering
class through incentivization and military lineage
10
What are these people doing?
11
Burmese Consular Staff and Families Kowtowing before
General/U Shwe Mann, Kunming, 2008
12
Monkey See Monkey Do:
Reviving Feudalism in the Age of Burmas
Emerging Crony Capitalism
13
Adding Insult to Injury:
Nargis victims made to treat Than Shwe and His
Entourage as if the latter were the Royals
14