Waste Management 2030 +

The future of waste management sector

Antonis Mavropoulos ISWA STC Chair
Scope of lecture

• To outline main forces that will shape the

future of SWM
• To highlight their interaction
• To put major challenges for discussion

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

 Shaping the future

The continuously
increasing complexity:
• of our world
• of SWM
• The rise of the sleeping giants
• The global IT network and its impacts
• Resource scarcity + food
• Hi-Tech / New products
• The emerging new lifestyles
• Climate Change + Energy revolution
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Where do we stand today?
• There are islands of
advanced SWM in an
ocean of uncontrolled
landfills
• There are technologies to
face the problem
• Broad recognition of the
disposal problem
• Broad recognition of
recycling
• Initiatives for waste
reduction Source: From Waste to Resource, 2006 Waste Survey, Veolia

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

Dimensions of the problem

UK Data
• 1/3 of food is thrown away
• 10 billions €/year
• 420 €/ household
• Body weight waste food /
year
Source: C. Visvanathan Resource Circulation in Asia: Practical
Source: WRAP, The food we waste, 2008 Challenges in Setting up Recycling Industries, 2009

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

• 46.000 plastic
pieces/ sq. mile
• 6 kg of marine litter/
kg of plankton
• 10% of the global
plastic production
ends up in the
ocean
• 5-10 m plastic layers
• 7.000.000 tons in
place

Source: Algalita Marine Research Foundation, 2009

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

1. Waste volume will increase

• GDP and consumption

will rise
• WtE & MBT will be
expanded
• Will it be enough to
resolve the problem?
• Still no evidence for
decoupling
Source: John Hawksworth, PWC, The world in 2050, 2008

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

Is the EU SWM the best?

According the current level of

prices it is four (4) times more
expensive to burn waste in
Netherlands than to send it for
“recycling” in China
NY Times, 28-9-2009
Source: EEA Report 1/2009, Waste Without Borders
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
 The “China” syndrome

What will be the European

Waste Management
System without China?

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

 Consequences to SWM
• Even the best systems are not self-capable to
face the increasing SW volumes
• Increasing volumes and increasing collection
rates will create disposal crisis in certain
countries or cities
• New uncontrolled landfills will be created
• New landfills will be the dominant method
worldwide
• Waste trafficking will be a major problem
• Historical waste will be an important problem
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
2. Composition will keep
changing
• Biotechnology
• Nanotechnology
• Combination of IT with them
• New energy products for home, personal use
• New IT products

Source: Derek Woodgate, Future frequencies, 2008

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
New products will be rapidly consumed
and create new waste globally
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
 A more general problem
Product cycle

Waste
management
cycle

Dt 1 Dt 2

It starts later, when there are waste (Dt1)

It keeps much more (Dt2)
Targets
Dt1
0
Dt2
0
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
 The e-waste example
Global sales of e-waste market
Is the problem solved?

Source: EEA Report 1/2009, Waste Without Borders

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

 Consequences to SWM

• New products come faster than their sound

management as waste
• More waste streams must have separate
management for 3R purposes
• Waste Prevention & Eco-design are key - issues
• SWM Complexity will increase exponentially
• Differences between countries will be the driving
force for waste trafficking
• Current market conditions are not capable to face
the problem
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
3. Resource scarcity

Source: European Parliament, Eco-innovation - putting the EU on the path to a

resource and energy efficient economy, 2009
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
The example of oil
GLOBAL OIL RESERVES 1980 – 2009 (billions barrels)
Reserves were few
Prices grew exponentially
Poor oil fields became attractive
New extraction methods went
feasible
Reserves doubled
They are going to be spent

Extraction costs went higher

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
 The break – even points
Cost/ tn
Extraction Cost/ tn

Landfill mining Cost/ tn

Recycling Cost/ tn

Time

Time

Extraction cost/ tn

Source: Dennis Meadows, Perspectives on Limits to Growth

37 Years Later, 2009

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

Recycling and markets

Production stopped
Prices dropped exponentially
Some recycling programs stopped
Stocks piled up
They went for disposal
Is it sustainable? 100,00
90,00
80,00
70,00

Price in Euro
60,00
Lower price level

Recycled paper
50,00
Upper price level
40,00
30,00

price, France
20,00
10,00
0,00

08

9
8

9
8
08

8
8

08
08
-0

-0
-0

-0
r-0

-0
-0

-0

t-0
-0

v-
s-

il-

c-
vr

vr
nv

nv
ût
in

pt
ai
av

oc

no
ar

ju

dé
fé

fé
ao

se
ju
m
ja

ja
m
Timeline

90,00
80,00

Recycled paper
70,00

Price in Euro
60,00
50,00 Lower price level

price, Germany
40,00 Upper price level
30,00
20,00
10,00
0,00

11/01/2008

11/02/2008

11/03/2008

11/04/2008

11/05/2008

11/06/2008

11/07/2008

11/08/2008

11/09/2008

11/10/2008

11/11/2008

11/12/2008

11/01/2009

11/02/2009

11/03/2009
Timeline

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

 Consequences to SWM

• Reuse, Recycling, Recovery (3R) will be more and

more important for survival on Planet Earth
• New recycling & recovery technologies will be
discovered - Current non feasible technologies will
be feasible later (e.g. landfill mining)
• Market turbulences drive recyclables to landfills
• Market tools are not enough to sustain a high level
of recycling

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

4. GHGs & Energy Revolution

Source: John Hawksworth, PWC,

The world in 2050, 2008

Source: Hydrogen Economy, 2004

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
 The future of WtE

• Better energy efficiency

• Carbon Capture + Sequestration
• New conversion techniques
• Scalability & Decentralization

Source: R.B. Williams§ K. Kornbluth, P.A. Erickson, B.M. Jenkins and

M.C. Gildart, , Estimates of Hydrogen Production Potential and
Costs from California Landfills Source: IES, Road to zero waste, SBC Forum 2008
A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009
Hydrogen from waste?

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

 Consequences to SWM

• WtE technologies will be expanded and become

more energy efficient
• More conversion technologies will be available
• Hydrogen produced by waste is a major challenge
• Carbon footprints should be reduced with carbon
capture & storage (CCS) techniques
• Collection and transfer systems will be refueled
with new fuels

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

5. Robots are coming…

1998

Source: http://www.dustbot.org/index.php?menu=home , 2009

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

Consequences to SWM

• Robots will be used extensively for

collection and recycling
• Robots can be used for landfill purposes
• ROBOTS in general make
a. less waste
b. lower costs
c. fewer jobs
d. more mistakes (now)

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009

How far is that future?

A. Mavropoulos, Lisbon 10-2009