2/2/2012

CE421

UNIVERSITY OF SANTO TOMAS FACULTY OF ENGINEERING Instructor: Deo Leo Manalo, Ph.D. Email: deoleo@gmail.com

Transportation Engineering (CIVTREN) notes of AM Fillone, DLSU-Manila

UST ENGG

Trip generation estimates the number trips from an origin or destination Trip distribution determines the destination of trips from an origin Mode Split determines the vehicle choice for each trip Trip assignment determines the specific route for each trip

DNManalo.

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

Input:
Socioeconomic Data Land Use Data
1
TAZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Productions 12 19 35 4 5 10 13 22

Wesley Marshall

3 2 4 7 6 5 8

TAZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Attractions 9 12 4 38 45 6 4 2

Output:

Trip Ends by trip purpose

DNManalo.

UST ENGG

The question is how do we allocate all the trips among all the potential destinations?
Zone 2
TAZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

TAZ Productions 1 12 2 19 35 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 13 7 22 8

Zone 36 5

Zone 1

Trip Matrix Zone 4 or Trip TableZone 5

Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8

8 TAZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Attractions 9 12 4 38 45 6 4 2

Wesley Marshall

DNManalo.

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

Transportation Engineering (CIVTREN) notes of AM Fillone, DLSU-Manila

DNManalo.

Transportation Engineering (CIVTREN) notes of AM Fillone, DLSU-Manila

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

We link production or origin zones to attraction or destination zones A trip matrix is produced
TAZ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Zone 1

Trip Matrix

The cells within the trip matrix are the trip interchanges between zones
DNManalo.

UST ENGG

Number of trips decrease with COST between zones Number of trips increase with zone attractiveness

DNManalo.

2/2/2012

Shortest Path Method

UNIVERSITY OF SANTO TOMAS FACULTY OF ENGINEERING

Find the shortest path from node 1 to all other nodes (from Garber and Hoel) 1 2 5 2 9 2 4 2 1 2 4 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 7 1 3 2 6 4 1 8 1

10

11

12

3 4

1 4

13

14

15

16

Yellow numbers 3 represent link travel times in minutes

2/2/2012

STEP 1 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 3 7 2 8 3 3 2 6 4

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

STEP 2 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 5 3 7 2 8 3 3 2 4 6 4

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

2/2/2012

STEP 3 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 5 4 3 7 2 8 3 3 2 4 6 4

2 4 9 4

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

STEP 4 1 1 1 2 4 5 >= 4 2 5 2 6 5 4 3 7 2 8 3 Eliminate 2 2 1 3 4 6 4

2 4 9 4

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

2/2/2012

STEP 5 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 7 3 3 2 6 2 8 4 6 4 10

2 4 9 4

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

STEP 6 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 Eliminate 2 4 9 4
10

4 3 3 2 6 7 7 1 7 >= 6 1 2 8 6 4

10

3 7

11

12

13

14

15

16

2/2/2012

STEP 7 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 7 3 3 2 6 2 8 4 6 4 10

2 4 9 4 Eliminate 2 6
13

3 7
10

3 8 >= 7

11

12

8 3 1 1

14

15

16

STEP 8 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 7 3 3 2 6 2 8 4 6 4 10

1 8

2 4 9 4

3 7
10

1 7
11

12

2 6
13

14

15

16

2/2/2012

STEP 9 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 7 3 3 2 6 2 8 4 6 4 10

1 8

2 4 9 4

3 7
10

1 7
11

12

2 6
13

3 10 4
14

15

16

STEP 10 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 7 3 3 2 6 2 8 4 6 4 10

1 8

2 4 9 4 Eliminate 6
13

3 7
10

1 7
11

3 Eliminate

3 10 >= 7

12

10 2 3 10 4
14

4 10

15

16

10 >= 10

10

2/2/2012

STEP 11 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 7 3 3 2 6 2 8 4 6 4 10

1 8

2 4 9 4

3 7
10

1 7
11

1 10 3
12

2 6
13

1 8

14

4 10

15

16

STEP 12 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 7 3 3 2 6 4

Eliminate 10 6 4 9 2 1 8

10 > 9

2 4 9 4

3 7
10

1 10 >= 9 3 7
11

1 10 3 Eliminate
12

2 6
13

1 8

14

4 10

15

16

11

2/2/2012

STEP 13 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 7 3 3 2 6 2 8 4 6 4 9 2 1 8

2 4 9 4

3 7
10

1 7
11

1 9 3
12

2 6
13

3 12 >= 10 12 4
14

1 8 4 10 Eliminate
15

1 12 4
16

STEP 14 1 1 1 2 4 2 5 2 6 4 3 7 3 3 2 6 2 8 4 6 4 9 2 1 8

2 4 9 4

3 7
10

1 7
11

1 9 3
12

2 6
13

1 8

12 >= 10 12 4 Eliminate

1 10
16

14

4 10

15

12

2/2/2012

ANSWER 1 1 2 3 4 4 9

2 5 6 4 7

6 8

4 9
10

7
11

7
12

6
13 14 15

8
16

10

10

UST ENGG

I. II.

Growth Factor Models Gravity Model

DNManalo.

13

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

Growth Factor Models assume that we already have a basic trip matrix
TAZ 1 2 3 4 1 5 50 50 100 2 50 5 100 200 3 100 100 5 250 4 200 300 100 20

Usually obtained from a previous study or recent survey data

DNManalo.

UST ENGG

The goal is then to estimate the matrix at some point in the future
For example, what would the trip matrix look like in 2 years time?

TAZ 1 2 3 4

1 5 50 50 100

2 50 5 100 200

3 100 100 5 250

4 200 300 100 20

TAZ 1 2 3 4

1 ? ? ? ?

2 ? ? ? ?

3 ? ? ? ?

4 ? ? ? ?

Trip Matrix, t (2008)

Trip Matrix, T (2018) DNManalo.

14

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

Uniform Growth Factor Singly-Constrained Growth Factor Average Factor Detroit Factor Fratar Method

DNManalo.

UNIVERSITY OF SANTO TOMAS FACULTY OF ENGINEERING

15

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

A simple method to distribute trips in a study area. Assumptions of the model

the distribution of future trips from a given origin

zone is proportional to the present trip distribution this future distribution is modified by the growth factor of the zone to which these trips are attached

Transportation Engineering (CIVTREN) notes of AM Fillone, DLSU-Manila

DNManalo.

UST ENGG

Tij = tij for each pair i and j

i = I = Production Zone j = J = Attraction Zone Tij = Future Trip Matrix tij = Base-year Trip Matrix = General Growth Rate
DNManalo.

16

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

If we assume = 1.2 (growth rate), then

TAZ 1 2 3 4 1 5 50 50 100 2 50 5 100 200 3 100 100 5 250 4 200 300 100 20

Trip Matrix, t (2008)

Tij
TAZ 1 2 3 4 1 6 60 60 120 2 60 6 120 240 3 120 120 6 300 4 240 360 120 24

= tij = (1.2)(5) =6

Trip Matrix, T (2018)

DNManalo.

UST ENGG

The Uniform Growth Factor is typically used for over a 1 or 2 year horizon However, assuming that trips grow at a standard uniform rate is a fundamentally flawed concept

DNManalo.

17

2/2/2012

UNIVERSITY OF SANTO TOMAS FACULTY OF ENGINEERING

UST ENGG

The idea behind the gravity model is Newtons law of gravitation

F=k

M1 M2

r2

The force of attraction between 2 bodies is directly proportional to the product of masses between the two bodies and inversely proportional to the square of the distance
DNManalo.

18

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

The most widely used trip distribution model The model states that the number of trips between two zones is directly proportional to the number of trip attractions generated by the zone of destination and inversely proportional to a function of time of travel between the two zones.

DNManalo. Transportation Engineering (CIVTREN) notes of AM Fillone, DLSU-Manila

UST ENGG

Tij Fij Wij c pij kij

= Qij = Trips Volume between i & j =1/Wcij = Friction Factor = Generalized Cost (including travel time, cost) = Calibration Constant = Probability that trip i will be attracted to zone j = Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor

DNManalo.

19

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

Tij = Qij =
=

Pi Aj FijKij AjFijKij

= Pipij

(Productions)(Attractions)(Friction Factor)
Sum of the (Attractions x Friction Factors) of the Zones

Fij = 1 / Wcij
The bigger the friction factor, the more trips that are encouraged

DNManalo.

UST ENGG

What we need 1. Productions, {Pi} 2. Attractions, {Aj} 3. Skim Tables {Wij)

Target-Year Interzonal Impedances
DNManalo.

20

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

Given:
Target-year Productions, {Pi} Relative Attractiveness of Zones, {Aj} Skim Table, {Wij} Calibration Factor, c = 2.0 Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor, K = 1.0

Find:
Trip Interchanges, {Qij}

DNManalo.

UST ENGG

Calculate Friction Factors, {Fij} Find Denominator of Gravity Model Equation {AjFijKij} Find Probability that Trip i will be attracted to Zone j, {pij} Find Trip Interchanges, {Qij}

DNManalo.

21

2/2/2012

Given
TAZ 1 2 3 4 Productions 1500 0 2600 0 4100 TAZ 1 2 3 4 "Attractiveness" 0 3 2 5 10

Target-Year Inter-zonal Impedances, {Wij}

TAZ 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 5 10 15 20 10 5 10 15 15 10 5 10

4 20 15 10 5

Calibration Factor c = 2.0 Socioeconomic Adj. Factor K = 1.0

Calculate Friction Factors, {Fij}

TAZ 1 2 3 4 1 0.0400 0.0100 0.0044 0.0025 2 0.0100 0.0400 0.0100 0.0044 3 0.0044 0.0100 0.0400 0.0100 4 0.0025 0.0044 0.0100 0.0400

Fij =
0.0514 0.1622 0.1600 0.2333

1 1 = F11= 2 = 0.04 c W ij 5 AjFijKij=A4F34K34 (5)(0.01)(1.0) = 0.05

Find Denominator of Gravity Model Equation {AjFijKij}

TAZ 1 2 3 4 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 2 0.0300 0.1200 0.0300 0.0133 3 0.0089 0.0200 0.0800 0.0200 4 0.0125 0.0222 0.0500 0.2000

Find Probability that Trip i will be attracted to Zone j, {pij}

TAZ 1 2 3 4 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 2 0.5838 0.7397 0.1875 0.0571 3 0.1730 0.1233 0.5000 0.0857 4 0.2432 0.1370 0.3125 0.8571

pij =

AjFijKij (AjFijKij)

= 0.05 = 0.3125 0.16

Find Trip Interchanges, {Qij}

TAZ 1 2 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 876 0 488 0 1363 3 259 0 1300 0 1559 4 365 0 813 0 1177 1500 0 2600 0 4100

Qij = Pipij = (2600)(0.3125) = 813

UST ENGG

Keep in mind that the socioeconomic factor, K, can be a matrix of values rather than just one value

TAZ 1 2 3 4

1 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.9

2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4

3 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.3

4 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.6

DNManalo.

22

2/2/2012

UST ENGG

Although K-Factors may improve the model in the base year, they assume that these special conditions will carry over to future years and scenarios
This limits model sensitivity and undermines the models ability to predict future travel behavior

The need for K-factors often is a symptom of other model problems.

Additionally, the use of K-factors makes it more difficult to figure out the real problems
DNManalo.

UST ENGG

Too much of a reliance on K-Factors in calibration External trips and intrazonal trips cause difficulties The skim table impedance factors are often too simplistic to be realistic
Typically based solely upon vehicle travel times, At most, this might include tolls and parking costs Almost always fails to take into account how things such as good transit and walkable neighborhoods affect trip distribution No obvious connection to behavioral decisionmaking
DNManalo.

23