Popcorn Experimental Design Project

Author: Osagie Alli

Objective
The Objective of this Popcorn experiment is to apply a simple Design of Experiment
technique to quantify the effects of four 4-variable factors at two 2-levels design on the
amount of Un-Popped kernel (Response) generated during the experimental runs. This Data
generated will provide valuable information on the main effects and interactions that are of
statistical significance. These statistically significant effects and interactions can then be used
to develop an empirical model that predicts the optimum response of the process and this
model will optimise the number of un-popped kernels and so improve the yield of the popcorn
in the process.

Method
This design of experiment study was carried out at home using a regular microwave of
700watts. To get the experiment stated, I brainstorm on all possible factors to be considered
based on the instructions on the popcorn bag label. Part of the instruction is to heat with oil in
a pot at between 3-4 minutes at a high temperature setting and to add 2-3 spoons of oil to a
handful of the popcorn kernel before cooking. Though the instruction suggested using a
regular cooker, I personally then chose to apply a 4-Factor and 2-Level full factorial design to
simulate the process in a microwave condition and to aim at determining the best operating
conditions that will give optimum response of un-popped kernel and thus improve the yield of
pop-corn produced. In this experiment, it is the un-popped kernel that is the response not the
popped corn itself.

Factors held Constant:

1. For all of the 48 experimental runs of each treatment combination, 50 kernels of
Popcorn Brand Kelkin® were used throughout the experiment.
2. Microwave power used through the experiment is 700watts

Nuisance Factor:
1. The nuisance factor considered significant for this experiment is the build up of
residual temperature inside of the microwave over overtime during the experiment this
is considered as a bias factor and to minimise its effects, Randomization of
experimental combinations runs would have been best. unfortunately, I decided not to
randomly select the treatment combinations and thus follow Minitab design simplified
in Table 2, without randomisation, to compensated for this, I ensured that a time of
cool down period of 5 minutes be applied between the start of each treatment
combinations run..

Variable Factors and Levels Chosen: Table 1

Variable Factors 2 Levels

Low (-) High (+)
Microwave
A Medium High
Temperature
Run Time
B 3 mins 4 mins
Cooking oil
C 2.5ml 5ml
Microwave Bowl
D Small Large
 Popcorn Experimental Design Project
Author: Osagie Alli

Equipment
1. 2 bags of Kelkin® Brand Popcorn
2. Sun Flower cooking oil
3. 4 Microwaveable heat resistant bowl and cover (small and large)
4. A pack of 2.5ml and 5ml syringes to dispense the vegetable oil
5. 700watts microwave oven

The experiment was designed around a 2-level and a 4-factor full factorial.
Before the start of the experiment, a range finding trial runs were conducted to limit the
continuous variables and thereby enable the setting of the low (-) and high (+) levels. During
the range finding runs, the Popcorn kernels were either un-popped or over-popped and finally
a suitable operating levels condition for all of the factors was chosen as in Fig 1.

During the run of the 48 treatment combinations a full factorial design by Minitab as in Table
2 was followed. For illustration and assuming Run no.1, all of the factors were set at the low
(-) levels, on completion, all the number of un-popped kernels were counted and recorded, an
interval of 5-minutes was allowed to elapse before conducting the next Run No. 2.

In the Run 2, factor A (Microwave Temperature) was set at the High (+) level and all other
factors B, C, D were set at the low (-) level and at the end of the run, the number of un-
popped kernel recorded. This was repeated for all of the 48 Runs allowing a 5 minutes
interval between runs to allow the microwave temperature to equilibrate to room temperature
and thus minimise any nuisance factor.

On completing the first 16 Runs, the experiment was then replicated twice, given a total of 3
replicates through 48 experiments. The results of the main effects and interactions on the
response are tabulated below.
 Popcorn Experimental Design Project
Author: Osagie Alli

A Full Factorial 2-Level 4-Factors 3-Replicates Model: Popcorn Design of Experiment

Treat
FACTORS INTERACTIONS Replicates
Run ments A B C D AB AC AD BC BD CD ABC ABD ACD BCD ABCD I II III TOTAL
1 (1) - - - - + + + + + + - - - - + 46 39 37 122
2 a + - - - - - - + + + + + + - - 29 17 33 79
3 b - + - - - + + - - + + + - + - 15 24 28 67
4 ab + + - - + - - - - + - - + + + 12 11 11 34
5 c - - + - + - + - + - + - + + - 22 21 34 77
6 ac + - + - - + - - + - - + - + + 16 13 17 46
7 bc - + + - - - + + - - - + + - + 14 14 13 41
8 abc + + + - + + - + - - + - - - - 5 9 9 23
9 d - - - + + + - + - - - + + + + 37 38 38 113
10 ad + - - + - - + + - - + - - + + 14 13 19 46
11 bd - + - + - + - - + - + - + - + 13 16 18 47
12 abd + + - + + + + - + - - + - - - 5 8 13 23
13 cd - - + + + - - - - + + + - - + 34 31 37 102
14 acd + - + + - - + - - + - - + - - 18 26 14 58
15 bcd - + + + - - - + + + - - - + - 17 21 17 55
16 abcd + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 3 3 1 7

Table 2: For this Popcorn Experiment, The above model was applied, though it would have been better to adopt a Randomizes Treatment
Combinations approach to minimize the effect of the Nuisance factor arising from the residual heat in the microwave, I decided to to follow the
above Treatment Combination model and have it Replicated at three different times after an hour internal on the same day.
 Popcorn Experimental Design Project
Author: Osagie Alli
Results of Full Factorial Design:
Full Factorial Design

Factors: 4 Base Design: 4, 16

Runs: 48 Replicates: 3
Blocks: 1 Center pts (total): 0

All terms are free from aliasing.

Factorial Fit: UN-POPPED versus A, B, C, D

Estimated Effects and Coefficients for UN-POPPED (coded units)

Term Effect Coef SE Coef T P

Constant 19.646 0.6092 32.25 0.000
A -12.708 -6.354 0.6092 -10.43 0.000
B -14.292 -7.146 0.6092 -11.73 0.000
C -5.208 -2.604 0.6092 -4.27 0.000
D -1.458 -0.729 0.6092 -1.20 0.240
A*B 2.708 1.354 0.6092 2.22 0.033
A*C 0.958 0.479 0.6092 0.79 0.437
A*D -2.292 -1.146 0.6092 -1.88 0.069
B*C 1.208 0.604 0.6092 0.99 0.329
B*D -1.042 -0.521 0.6092 -0.85 0.399
C*D 4.375 2.187 0.6092 3.59 0.001
A*B*C -1.958 -0.979 0.6092 -1.61 0.118
A*B*D 0.792 0.396 0.6092 0.65 0.520
A*C*D -1.292 -0.646 0.6092 -1.06 0.297
B*C*D -2.208 -1.104 0.6092 -1.81 0.079
A*B*C*D -2.208 -1.104 0.6092 -1.81 0.079

S = 4.22049 PRESS = 1282.5

R-Sq = 90.38% R-Sq(pred) = 78.35% R-Sq(adj) = 85.87%

Analysis of Variance for UN-POPPED (coded units)

Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P

Main Effects 4 4740.08 4740.08 1185.02 66.53 0.000
2-Way Interactions 6 422.29 422.29 70.38 3.95 0.005
3-Way Interactions 4 132.08 132.08 33.02 1.85 0.143
4-Way Interactions 1 58.52 58.52 58.52 3.29 0.079
Residual Error 32 570.00 570.00 17.81
Pure Error 32 570.00 570.00 17.81
Total 47 5922.98

Unusual Observations for UN-POPPED

Obs StdOrder UN-POPPED Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid

3 3 15.0000 22.3333 2.4367 -7.3333 -2.13R
18 18 17.0000 26.3333 2.4367 -9.3333 -2.71R
37 37 34.0000 25.6667 2.4367 8.3333 2.42R

R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.

 Popcorn Experimental Design Project
Author: Osagie Alli
Effects Plot for UN-POPPED

Effects Pareto for UN-POPPED

Effects B, A, C, CD and AB are the statistically significant effects.

 Popcorn Experimental Design Project
Author: Osagie Alli

Discussion on Effects Plot:

From the Full factorial estimated effects results above, and as shown in the Normal and Pareto
standardized effects plots shows a total of 5 significant effects. From the analysed data, the
significant main effects and interactions are A, B, C, C-D and A-B. These are the effects that has
a P-value < 0.05%. The biggest effect is time (B) followed by the microwave temperature (A),
the next significant effect is the vegetable Oil (C) and this is followed by the interaction effect
Oil-Bowl size (C-D) and finally the Temperature-Time (A-B) interaction.
A= Microwave Temperature
B= Set Time
C= Vegetable Oil
A-B= Temperature and Time
C-D = Vegetable Oil and Bowl
All other effect and interactions as the experiment suggests based on the data obtained and
analysed are insignificant. The interaction effects A-B is highly significant as the impact of time
is dependent on the oven temperature and vice-versa. The effects plot also shows strong
interaction between the Oil and pot size meaning that the effect of one is dependent on the other.
Overall, the ANOVA shows 3 out of 4 of the main effects according to the p value< 0.05 are
significant, 2 out of the 6 two-way interactions are significant. All of the 4-three way interactions
and four-way interactions’ are not significant.

The constant from the result table also shows to be significant. The constant term will always
appear in any model develop in trying to predict the optimum conditions for improvement in
number of un-popped kernel and signifies that we must include constant in all model design to
optimise and improve the process conditions further.
The ANOVA data below also highlighted the main effects: A B C and the 2 way
interaction to be significant as P-value < 0.05. The 3&4 way interactions show no
significant influence/effect.
Analysis of Variance Results:
Analysis of Variance for UN-POPPED, using Adjusted SS for Tests

Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P

A 1 1938.02 1938.02 1938.02 108.80 0.000
B 1 2451.02 2451.02 2451.02 137.60 0.000
C 1 325.52 325.52 325.52 18.27 0.000
D 1 25.52 25.52 25.52 1.43 0.240
A*B 1 88.02 88.02 88.02 4.94 0.033
A*C 1 11.02 11.02 11.02 0.62 0.437
A*D 1 63.02 63.02 63.02 3.54 0.069
B*C 1 17.52 17.52 17.52 0.98 0.329
B*D 1 13.02 13.02 13.02 0.73 0.399
C*D 1 229.69 229.69 229.69 12.89 0.001
A*B*C 1 46.02 46.02 46.02 2.58 0.118
A*B*D 1 7.52 7.52 7.52 0.42 0.520
A*C*D 1 20.02 20.02 20.02 1.12 0.297
B*C*D 1 58.52 58.52 58.52 3.29 0.079
A*B*C*D 1 58.52 58.52 58.52 3.29 0.079
Error 32 570.00 570.00 17.81
Total 47 5922.98

S = 4.22049 R-Sq = 90.38% R-Sq(adj) = 85.87%

Comment: The R-Sq adjusted indicates that 85.87% of the total variation has been
accounted for. the P-Value from the ANOVA result shows that, main effects A, B, C are
statistically significant even at 1% confidence limit, the 2-way interactions A*B and
C*D are also statistically significant.
 Popcorn Experimental Design Project
Author: Osagie Alli

Analysis of Variance for UN-POPPED, using Adjusted SS for Tests

Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P

A 1 1938.02 1938.02 1938.02 91.84 0.000
B 1 2451.02 2451.02 2451.02 116.15 0.000
C 1 325.52 325.52 325.52 15.43 0.000
D 1 25.52 25.52 25.52 1.21 0.278
A*B 1 88.02 88.02 88.02 4.17 0.048
C*D 1 229.69 229.69 229.69 10.88 0.002
Error 41 865.19 865.19 21.10
Total 47 5922.98

S = 4.59371 R-Sq = 85.39% R-Sq(adj) = 83.26%

The above shows the ANOVA for the main effects and Interaction effects. Factor D is not
statistically significant.
Response Graphs: Main Effect Plot

The main effects plot shows that factor A and B are the most statistically significant in terms of
the response to these factors, both factors shows a magnitude in response at the high level
settings.
Factors C (oil) shows a slightly significant response at the high level while factor D shows
negligible effect at the low level.
 Popcorn Experimental Design Project
Author: Osagie Alli
Response Graphs: Interaction Plot

Response Graphs: Residual Plot

 Popcorn Experimental Design Project
Author: Osagie Alli

Interaction Plot:
The interaction plots shows that all the factors exacts some sort of effects on the response based
on influences of interaction. All of the plots shows no parallel plots suggesting the presence of
interaction effects. The degree of the interaction varies between factors.
The interaction effect between C*D seemed more pronounced and most significant. The
interaction between A*B also seemed significant.
The interaction effects for both A*B and C*D are positive interaction as the influence of one
factor on another significantly enhances response.

Residual Plots:
In the normal Probability plot above, the normality assumption is not violated as the graph shows
a straight line and the 50% percentile occurs at a residual value of approximately zero indicating
that the normal distribution of the residuals are symmetrical about the mean.

The assumption of equal variance is satisfied as the residuals are evenly spread about the mean
Nu=0

The dot plot shows that data are scatted evenly about the mean, no unusual pattern such as funnel
shape, concave or convex shaped as a result the equal variance assumption is satisfied.

The independence assumption is satisfied as the run order plot shows no unusual pattern in the
sequence of the positive and negative residual plot about the Nu=0

The Empirical Model:

From the main effects plot and interactions plots, the statistically significant effects are A, B, C,
A*B and C*D.
The empirical model is one that will lead to having a lower response in the number of un-popped
Kernel. To satisfy this purpose requires a model to optimise the process as follows
Model is B(+), A(+), C(+), there is relative influence when D is operated at the High though its
effect is not statistically significant yet it is a factor to recon with. As a result the empirical
model is to operate the process with all settings at the high level.

Predicting the optimum response:

Y= 19.646 + (-6.354)+ + (-7.146)+ + (-2.604)+ +(1.354)++ + (2.187)+++

Y = 19.646 – 6.354 – 7.146 – 2.604 + 1.354 + 2.187

Y=7

A confirmatory Run at the optimum condition based on the empirical model

yielded 3 un-popped kernels.
 Popcorn Experimental Design Project
Author: Osagie Alli

CONCLUSION:
Popping Popcorn involves heating the corn until the pressure inside the kernel is great enough to
cause it to burst, cooking oil surrounds and soften the kernel shell and provides the medium
through which heat can be transferred to the inside of the corn.
Results show that it is best to operate and make popcorn at the highest power setting, and at a
high time. The impact of the interaction of time and power is greater than the single effect of
individual factor.
The full factorial design allows the estimate of all main effects, 2-factos and 3-factors
interactions.
Influences includes the normal variation in the popcorn, the operating environment, the effect of
the residual heat on continuous use during the experimental run.

The 5 largest effects A, B, C. A*B and C*D represents the vital few. The non parallel lines are
characteristic of a powerful 2 two factor interaction.