Observed and Projected Climate Change and Variability in Turkey in Comparison with the Recent Report of the IPCC

AR5 Climate Change 2013: Phsical Science Basis

Prof. Dr. Murat TRKE

(Physical Geography and Geology & Climatology and Meteorology)
Affiliated Faculty at the Department of Statistics, METU TEMA Foundation Member of the Science Committee

FOODPRINT.eu Meeting, anakkale - 7 April 2014

The Aim of the Study:

to make a scientific synthesis of

- The climate of anakkale District and Turkey,

- Observed climate change and variability in Turkey, and - Simulated future climate of Turkey, in comparison with the Recent WGI Report of the IPCC AR5 Climate Change 2013: Physical Science Basis

(Ia) The Climate of Turkey

Based on
The Kppen-Geiger Climate Classification System

World Kppens Climates

(*Source: Trke (2010), Climatology and Meteorology.

C Midlatitude Temperate Climates

True Mediterranean Climates of the Mediterranean Basin and Turkey Classified as Csa and Csb according to the KppenGeiger Climate Classification*
(*Source: Trke (2010), Climatology and Meteorology.

Csb: Mediterranean with warm summer

Csb Csa

Csa: Mediterranean with hot summer (winter mostly mild and rainy, summer hot and dry) (yazlar scak ve kurak, klar lk ve yal in Turkish)

Climates of Turkey according to the Kppen-Geiger Climate Classification

(*Source: Trke (2010), Climatology and Meteorology.

(Ib) The Climate of anakkale

Based on
The Thornthwaite Climate Classification System

Location Map of anakkale District and Biga Peninsula

Physical Map of anakkale District and Biga Peninsula

Biga Peninsula

Climate and Hydroclimatological Characteristics of the anakkale Meteorology Station according to the Thornthwaites Water Budget and the Climate Classification (Moisture Index (Im))
A soil moisture surplus is seen in winter months, whereas an evident soil moisture deficit appears from April to October: - A period of soil moisture surplus through the months from November to April; - A period of soil moisture deficit through the months of May to October with a severe summer dryness in June, July, August and September; - A transition month of October, where the water begins to store in the soil and moisture increases due to starting of frontal precipitation events with midlatitude cyclones.
-According to the Thornthwaites Im (1948), a dry-subhumid climate type is dominant at anakkale district. - By referring to Thornthwaites symbols: dry sub-humid, second mesothermal throughout the year, moderate winter water surplus, with a summer concentration of thermal efficiency equal to third mesothermal climate.

Mediterranean maquis at Gelibolu Peninsula

Arbutus andrachne

Arbutus unedo

Natural Mediterranean forests at anakkale District

(mainly with Pinus brutia)

(II)

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of

Observed Climate Change and Variability

Degree of the Human Influence in Observed Global Climate Change according to the IPCC AR5 WGI Report of Climate Change 2013: Physical Science Basis
Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean in changes in the global water cycle, reductions in snow and ice, global mean sea level rise, and many climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since the IPCC AR4, and it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.

(II.1) Observed Surface Temperature Changes and Trends

Observed surface temperature changes from 1901 to 2012 derived from temperature trends determined by linear regression
(IPCC 5AR, 2013)

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.

Observed Variations and Trends

in Long-term Surface Air Temperature Series of Turkey

(For the period 1950 to 2010)
(Trke, 2012, 2013)

Seasonal Mean Air Temperature Trends based on the resultant test statistics of the MannKendall rank correlation test

28

32
K A R A D E N Z

36

40

44

(a) Winter
Marmara Denizi

40

Insignificant cooling
Ege Denizi

Insignificant warming

40

Significant warming
36

Significant warming
A K D E N Z
0 50 100 150 200 250

28

28

km

-3 to -2.58 -2.579 to -1.96 -1.959 to 0 0 to 1.959 1.96 to 2.579 2.58 to 7

36 Decreasing trend

(b) Spring
Marmara Denizi

32 32 K A R A D E N Z

36 36

40 40

Increasing trend 44
44

(a) K ortalama hava scakl eilimleri

40

40
Ege Denizi

36

Spatially coherent significant warming

A K D E N Z
0 50 100 150 200 250

km

-3 to -2.58 -2.579 to -1.96 -1.959 to 0 0 to 1.959 1.96 to 2.579 2.58 to 7

36

(b) lkbahar ortalama hava scakl eilimleri

44

28

32

36

40

28

32
K A R A D E N Z

36

40

44

(c) Summer
Marmara Denizi

40

40
Ege Denizi

36

Spatially coherent significant warming

A K D E N Z
0 50 100 150 200 250

28km

-3 to -2.58 -2.579 to -1.96 -1.959 to 0 0 to 1.959 1.96 to 2.579 2.58 to 7

36

(c) Yaz ortalama hava scakl eilimleri

44
44

28

(d) Autumn
Marmara Denizi

32 32 K A R A D E N Z

36 36

40 40

40

40
Ege Denizi

Significant warming
Significant warming

36

A K D E N Z
0 50 100 150 200 250

km

-3 to -2.58 -2.579 to -1.96 -1.959 to 0 0 to 1.959 1.96 to 2.579 2.58 to 7

36

(d) Sonbahar ortalama hava scakl eilimleri

44

28

32

36

40

Observed Variations and Trends in Summer Air Temperatures

24

Zonguldak - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

26

Rize - Yaz ortalama scaklk

24

26

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

Zonguldak - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

Rize - Yaz ortalama scaklk

23
22 21

25 24 23
22 21 20 19 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
y = 2E-05x3 + 0.0004x2 - 0.047x + 22.023 R = 0.5296

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

23
22 21

25 24 23
22 21 20 19

20
19
y = 2E-05x3 + 0.0004x2 - 0.047x + 22.023

20
19
y = 4E-05x3 - 0.0029x2 + 0.0454x + 20.757 R = 0.4583

y = 4E-05x3 - 0.0029x2 + 0.0454x + 20.757 R = 0.4583

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 R = 0.5296
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Yl
23

Yl

Yl

26

Yl

Ankara - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

Van - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

26

Ankara - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

23

Van - Yaz ortalama scaklk 25

24 23 22 21 20
y = 6E-05x3 - 0.0037x2 + 0.0444x + 21.889 R = 0.5064
y = -3E-05x3 + 0.0042x2 - 0.1198x + 20.96 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 R = 0.3563

22
21

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

25 24 23 22 21 20
y = 6E-05x3 - 0.0037x2 + 0.0444x + 21.889 R = 0.5064

22
21

20
19 18

20
19 18

y = -3E-05x3 + 0.0042x2 - 0.1198x + 20.96 R = 0.3563

19

17 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

19 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

17

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Yl
30

Yl

Yl
26

Yl
26
30

Florya - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

zmir - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Florya - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

zmir - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)
25

29

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

25

29

24
23 22 21

28
27 26 25 24 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
y = -2E-05x3 + 0.0035x2 - 0.1184x + 27.462 R = 0.6011

24
23 22 21 20 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

28
27 26 25 24

y = 4E-06x3 + 0.0014x2 - 0.0648x + 22.797 R = 0.6181

y = 4E-06x3 + 0.0014x2 - 0.0648x + 22.797 R = 0.6181

20 y = -2E-05x3 + 0.0035x2 - 0.1184x + 27.462 = 0.6011 1950 1955 R 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Yl

Yl
31

Yl
30

Yl
30
31

Alanya - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

Mardin - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Alanya - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

Mardin - Yaz ortalama scaklk

Ortalama scaklk ( C)
29 28 30 29

Ortalama scaklk ( C)

29 28

30 29

27
26 25

28
27 26

27
26 25

28
27 26

y = -3E-05x3 + 0.0049x2 - 0.1409x + 26.776 R = 0.8058

y = -2E-05x3 + 0.0025x2 - 0.0767x + 28.409 R = 0.3156

y = -3E-05x3 + 0.0049x2 - 0.1409x + 26.776 R = 0.8058

24
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

25

24 y = -2E-05x3 + 0.0025x2 - 0.0767x + 28.409 = 0.3156 1955 1960 R 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Yl

25
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Yl

(II.2) Observed Precipitation Changes and Trends

Observed precipitation changes from 1951 to 2010 derived from precipitation trends determined by linear regression (IPCC 5AR, 2013)

Precipitation has increased over the mid-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere and has decreased in most of the Mediterranean Basin and many regions of the African continent since 1951 with high confidence.

Observed Variations and Trends

in Long-term Precipitation Series of Turkey

(For the period 1950 to 2010)
(Trke, 2012, 2013)

Seasonal Precipitation Trends based on the resultant test statistics of the MannKendall rank correlation test

28

32
K A R A D E N Z

36

40

44

(a) Winter
Marmara Denizi

40

Significant increase
40

Significant decrease (drying)

36 36 Decreasing trend

Ege Denizi

A K D E N Z
0 50 100 150 200 250

28km

28

(b) Spring
Marmara Denizi

32 32 K A R A D E N Z

36 36

40 40

-3 to -2.58 -2.579 to -1.96 -1.959 to 0 0 to 1.959 1.96 to 2.579 2.58 to 3

Increasing 44 trend
44

(a) K toplam ya tutarlarndaki eilimler

40

Significant increase
Ege Denizi

40

Significant decrease (drying)

Significant decrease (drying)

36

A K D E N Z
0 50 100 150 200 250

km

-3 to -2.58 -2.579 to -1.96 -1.959 to 0 0 to 1.959 1.96 to 2.579 2.58 to 3

36

(b) lkbahar toplam ya tutarlarndaki eilimler

44

28

32

36

40

28

32
K A R A D E N Z

36

40

44

Summer
Marmara Denizi

40

Significant increase
Ege Denizi

40

Significant decrease

36

A K D E N Z
0 50 100 150 200 250

28 km

Autumn
40

28

32 32 K A R A D E N Z

36 36

40 40

-3 to -2.58 -2.579 to -1.96 -1.959 to 0 0 to 1.959 1.96 to 2.579 2.58 to 3

36

(c) Yaz toplam ya tutarlarndaki eilimler

44
44

Marmara Denizi

40
Ege Denizi

Spatially coherent significant increase

36

A K D E N Z
0 50 100 150 200 250

km

-3 to -2.58 -2.579 to -1.96 -1.959 to 0 0 to 1.959 1.96 to 2.579 2.58 to 4

(d) Sonbahar toplam ya tutarlarndaki eilimler

36

Long-term Trends in Annual Precipitation Totals

28 32
K A R A D E N Z

36

40

44

Marmara Denizi

Significant increase Significant increase

40

40

Ege Denizi

Significant decrease Significant decrease

36

A K D E N Z
0 50 100 150 200 250

km

-5 to -2.58 -2.579 to -1.96 -1.959 to 0 0 to 1.959 1.96 to 2.579 2.58 to 5

36

Yllk toplam ya tutarlarndaki eilimler

44

28

32

36

40

(II.3) Analysis of observed changes and trends in numbers of summer and tropical days,

and the 2010 hot summer in Turkey

(for the period 1950 to 2010)
(Erlat and Trke, 2012, 2013; Int. J. Climatol.)

Long-term Trends in Numbers of Summer (a) and Tropical days

Decreasing trend Increasing trend

31

Observed Variations and Trends in Numbers of Summer (a) and Tropical Days (b)

32

Anomalies of Summer (a) and Tropical Days in 2010 Hot Summer

33

(III)

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the Climate

Model Simulations of Future Changes in Global and

Turkeys Climate
(IPCC AR5, 2013; Ozturk, Trke and Kurnaz, 2013)

Level and Ranges of the Simulated Global Climate Change according to the IPCC AR5 WGI Report of Climate Change 2013: Physical Science Basis
IPCCs new model simulated The equilibrium climate sensitivity changes are based on a new set of is the change in global mean scenarios of anthropogenic surface temperature at equilibrium forcings, which is Representative that is caused by a doubling of the Concentration Pathways (RCPs). atmospheric CO2 concentration. RCPs was used for the new Equilibrium climate sensitivity is climate model simulations carried likely in the range 1.5C to 4.5C out under the framework of the (high confidence), extremely Coupled Model Intercomparison unlikely less than 1C (high Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) of the confidence), and very unlikely WCRP. greater than 6C (medium In all RCPs, atmospheric CO2 confidence). concentrations are higher in 2100 The lower temperature limit of the relative to present day as a result of assessed likely range is thus less a further increase of cumulative than the 2C in the AR4, but the emissions of CO2 to atmosphere upper limit is the same. during the 21st century.

Multi-model simulated changes in global annual mean surface temperatures relative to 19862005 (IPCC AR5, 2013)

Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5C to 4.5C (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6C (medium confidence).

Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5C relative to 1850 for all RCP scenarios

Spatial Patterns of Projected Surface Temperature Changes over the period 2081 to 2100 (IPCC AR5, 2013)

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 20812100 of annual temperature changes have shown that projected warming in 21st century will be the greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes and will be the least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean, by the end of this century under both scenarios.

Projected changes in air temperature and precipitation climatology in Turkey by using the RegCM 4.3
(Ozturk, Trke and Kurnaz, 2013)

In this study, simulated changes over the period of 2070-2100 in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and variability in Turkey with respect to present climate (1971 to 2000) were studied based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions, and HadGEM2 (Hadley Global Environment Model 2) of Met Office Hadley Centre was downscaled for Turkey and its surrounding region.

Projected changes in surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in Turkey by using the RegCM 4.3 (Ozturk, Trke and Kurnaz, 2013)
RCP 4.5 (a) winter (DJF) (b) spring (MAM), RCP 8.5 (a) winter (DJF) (b) spring (MAM),

(c) summer (JJA)

(d) autumn (SON), (c) summer (JJA)

(d) autumn (SON),

Temperature projections (oC) from the RegCM 4.3, which is forced by the global climate model HadGEM2 with the RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right) emission scenarios over the period 20702100 with respect to reference period 19702000: (a) winter (DJF), (b) spring (MAM), (c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON) seasons

Spatial Patterns of Projected Precipitation Changes over the period 2081 to 2100 (IPCC 5AR, 2013)
Annual RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5

The CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 20812100 of annual precipitation changes have shown that projected precipitation will likely increase in high latitudes and the equatorial Pacific Ocean and some mid-latitude and monsoonal rainfall regions, and will likely decrease in most subtropical regions including the Mediterranean Basin and Turkey, by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Projected changes in surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in Turkey by using the RegCM 4.3 (Ozturk, Trke and Kurnaz, 2013)
RCP 4.5 (a) winter (DJF) (b) spring (MAM), RCP 8.5 (a) winter (DJF) (b) spring (MAM),

(c) summer (JJA)

(d) autumn (SON), (c) summer (JJA)

(d) autumn (SON),

Precipitation projections (mm/day) from the RegCM 4.3, which is forced by the global climate model HadGEM2 with the RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right) emission scenarios over the period 20702100 with respect to reference period 19702000: (a) winter (DJF), (b) spring (MAM), (c) summer (JJA) and (d) autumn (SON) seasons

Conclusions
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation:
For preventing or halting the climate change by reducing the GHGs,

Stronger global commitments

With the use of less energy and natural resources and more and essential scientific and technical information, etc.,

More succesfull adaptation

and with more balanced Climate System and less climate change,

Less exposure from, and lower vulnerability level to, the climate change and variability

Dinlediiniz iin ok teekkr ederim

Thank you very much for listening me

Selected References_1
Essenwanger, O. M. 2001. Classification of climates. In World Survey of Climatology 1C, General Climatology, Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 102. Erlat, E. and Trke, M. 2012. Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950 2010. International Journal of Climatology 32 (12): 18891898. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2403 Erlat, E. and Trke, M. 2013. Observed changes and trends in numbers of summer and tropical days, and the 2010 hot summer in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 33 (8): 18981908. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3556 Iyign, C., Trke, M., Batmaz, ., Yozgatlgil, C., Gazi, V. P., Ko, E. K. and ztrk, M. Z. 2013. Clustering current climate regions of Turkey by using a multivariate statistical method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 114: 95106. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-012-08237

Selected References_2
IPCC. 2013. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, in press. Kppen, W. 1936. Das geographisca System der Klimate, in: Handbuch der Klimatologie, edited by: Koppen, W. and Geiger, G., 1. C. Gebr, Borntraeger, 144. Kuglitsch, F. G., Toreti, A., Xoplaki, E., Della-Marta, P.M., Zerefos, C. S., Trke, M. and Luterbacher, J. 2010. Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960. Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 37, L04802, DOI:10.1029/2009GL041841..

Selected References_3
Ozturk, T., Trke, M. and Kurnaz, M. L. 2013. Projected changes in air temperature and precipitation climatology in Turkey by using RegCM 4.3. In: Proceedings of European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, 07 12 April 2013, Vienna. Trigo R, Xoplaki E, Zorita E, Luterbacher J, Krichak S, Alpert P, Jacobeit J, Saenz J, Fernandez J, Gonzalez-Rouco F, GarciaHerrera R, Rodo X, Brunetti M, Nanni T, Maugeri M, Trke M, Gimeno L, Ribera P, Brunet M, Trigo I, Crepon M, Mariotti A. 2006. Relations between variability in the Mediterranean region and midlatitude variability. In: P Lionello, P Malanotte-Rizzoli, R Boscolo (Eds): Chapter 3 of Mediterranean Climate Variability, Elsevier Developments in Earth & Environmental Sciences 4, Amsterdam, 179-226. Trke M. 1998. Influence of geopotential heights, cyclone frequency and southern oscillation on rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 18: 649680.

Selected References_4
Trke M. 1999. Vulnerability of Turkey to desertification with respect to precipitation and aridity conditions. Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences 23: 363-380. Trke, M. 2008. What is Climate Change? Basic Definition, Causes, Observed and Predicted Results of Climate Change. klim Deiiklii ve evre 1: 45-64. Trke, M. 2010a. Analysis of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification with respect to the Climate, Climate Change and Drought, and Applications in Turkey. Invited Panel Paper. lleme le Mcadele Sempozyumu Tebliler Kitab, pp.601-616, orum. Trke, M. 2010b. Climatology and Meteorology. First Edition, Kriter Publisher - Publication No. 63, Physical Geography Series No. 1, ISBN: 978-605-5863-39-6, 650 + XXII pp., stanbul (in Turkish).

Selected References_5
Trke, M. 2010c. Global Climate Change: Principal Causes, Observed and Predicted Changes and Their Impacts. Invited paper, Uluslararas Katlml 1. Meteoroloji Sempozyumu Bildiri Kitab, pp.9-38, Ankara. Trke, M. 2011. Akhisar ve Manisa yrelerinin ya ve kuraklk indisi dizilerindeki deiimlerin hidroklimatolojik ve zaman dizisi zmlemesi ve sonularn lleme asndan corafi bireimi. Corafi Bilimler Dergisi 9: 77-99. Trke, M. 2012. A detailed analysis of the drought, desertification and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Marmara Journal of European Studies evre zel Says 20 (1): 7-56. Trke, M. 2013. Trkiyede gzlenen ve ngrlen iklim deiiklii, kuraklk ve lleme (Observed and projected climate change, drought and desertification in Turkey). Ankara niversitesi evre Bilimleri Dergisi 5 (1): XX-XX (Baskda).

Selected References_6
Trke M, Smer UM, Demir . 2002. Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999. International Journal of Climatology 22: 947-977. Trke M, Smer UM. 2004. Spatial and temporal patterns of trends and variability in diurnal temperature ranges of Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 77: 195-227. Trke M, Erlat E. 2005. Climatological responses of winter precipitation in Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic oscillation during the period 19302001. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 81: 4569. Trke, M. and Erlat, E. 2009. Winter mean temperature variability in Turkey associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 105: 211225. DOI: 10.1007/s00703-009-0046-3 Trke M, Ko T, Sar F. 2007. Spatial and temporal analysis of the changes and trends in precipitation total and intensity series of Turkey. Corafi Bilimler Dergisi 5: 57-74. (In Turkish)

Selected References_7
Trke, M., Ko, T. and Sar, F. 2009. Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 29: 1056-1074. Trke, M. and Tatl, H. 2009. Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 29: 22702282. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1862 Trke, M. and Tatl, H. 2010. The Role of Drought and Precipitation Severity Indices for Determination, Characterization and Monitoring of the Desertification. lleme le Mcadele Sempozyumu Tebliler Kitab, pp.245-263, orum. Tatl, H. and Trke, M. 2011. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the Palmer drought indices. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151(7) (July 2011): 981991. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.03.004.