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Opening Remarks

Robot Workers: Coexistence Is Possible

By Sam Grobart December 13, 2012 The robots are coming. Resistance is futile. From car factories to microprocessor plants to fulfillment warehouses, a single robot can now handle tasks that once took hundreds of man-hours to complete. This relentless march of automation is causing economic upheaval. As time goes on, companies will become more productive and more efficient, but the amount of human labor required will decrease and the pay will be less. The sentient worker will be reduced to a relic of a simpler age. This is what weve been told, anyway. To some economists, stubbornly high unemployment rates in the U.S. and Europe are at least partly attributable to the rise of machines. Theres no question that in some high-profile industries, technology is displacing workers of all, or almost all, kinds, wrote Paul

Krugman in the New York Times on Dec. 9, adding that many of the jobs being displaced are high-skill and high-wage. Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Erik Brynjolfsson, co-author of Race Against the Machine, says: Robots are becoming more capable and skilled, and people with the same sets of skills are not as much in demand. According to this view, robots arent change agents. Theyre destroyers of worlds. Yet the robot revolution doesnt have to cause panic. While robots can claim some technological superiority over humans, even the most sophisticated machines have limitations. Automation will inevitably displace jobs, but its already bringing fresh economic opportunities as well. The last two decades have shown how technology can create industries even as it turns whole cities into has-beens. The ratio of jobs created to jobs eliminated by robots and where all the newfound wealth ultimately winds up are entirely dependent on how workers, businesses, and policymakers prepare for this new era. Story: Amazon's Robotic Future: A Work in Progress History is punctuated with scares about automation, with industries rising and falling based on changing technologies. Toward the end of the 18th century, 90 percent of the U.S. population was involved in farming. Farmers now make up 2 percent of the domestic workforce because of innovations such as tractors and grain combines. Meanwhile, our modern economy includes people who make a living creating mobile apps, a profession that was inconceivable a generation ago. More than any economy in the world, the U.S. has proven to be especially resilient in the face of massive technological change. Why should recent advances in robotics be any different? One reason is the accelerating pace of change. We have a growing mismatch between the speed of technological development and our ability to adapt to it, says Brynjolfsson. Technological developments used to take time to work their way into society. The internal-combustion engine was developed in the latter half of the 19th century, but it displaced the horse as a means of transportation only some 50 years later. The World Wide Web, on the other hand, has upended industries in less than 20 years. Moores Law is faster than Ottos cycle. Story: Smarter Robots, With No Wage Demands All that said, its too soon to write dirges for the humble human worker. In todays workplace, there are still things that robots just cant do. At Quiet Logistics, an order-fulfillment center for online retailers in Devens, Mass., 64 robots are used to move merchandise around the warehouse, but 330 humans are required to fold, package, and ship the products. Why not have robots do the whole thing? People are really good at picking up things, says Bruce Welty, Quiet Logistics chief executive officer. Its very difficult to get a robot to make the decisions required that a human makes to pick something out of a binparticularly if there are many different things in that bin. Humans continue to have another advantage over robots: They remain a more flexible workforce. To handle this years holiday shopping season, Amazon.com (AMZN) hired 50,000 part-time workers. While seasonal, part-time labor is not something you can necessarily build an economy on, its worth noting that Amazon didnt buy more robots, because you cant hire a robot part-time (yet). What would additional robots do when demand receded? Come January, says Jim Tompkins, a supply-chain consultant, all that automations going to be staring you in the face. This is the state of the robotic arts today: a point where humans and robots share labor, with robots handling the simple and repetitive and humans taking care of the complex and dynamic. Some robotics designers and engineers would like this to be a blueprint for the future, where increased automation does not necessarily displace human beings. Rodney Brooks, a former MIT robotics professor, is an optimist. To Brooks, who is also founder and chairman of robot maker Rethink Robotics, these machines are going to help workers, not compete with them. He points out that personal computers didnt get rid of office workers, they changed the jobs people did. When it comes to robots, its not a one-for-one replacement, he says. People are so much better at certain things. Video: Laid Off Recently? Blame the Robots But robots are still in their relative infancy. As faster processors and improved sensors enhance robots capabilities, its highly possible that the peaceful coexistence between man and machine may evolve into something more competitive. In manufacturing, theres already a ton of innovation going on, says Brynjolfsson. Economists like him fear that as robots get smarter, the gross domestic product will expand at a healthy clip, but that positive data would mask reduced employment and lower wages. Can GDP continue to grow? Of course it can, says MIT economist Frank Levy. The question is: Can everyone benefit? Extrapolate this further, and the role robots play in our economy and our lives begins to provoke fundamental questions about the nature of work. We have organized our economic system around the idea that income is derived from labor. But what happens when labor is not just transferred from one group of people to another (outsourcing) but to machines? History has never shown that a life of idle hedonism brings out the best in human beings. We excel when we are creative and productive. To ensure that continues to be the case, we cant ignore or prevent the growth of automation, but we can bring our considerable talents to bear on determining what the future of work will look like. For the U.S., that will require innovation and entrepreneurship, but also policies that foster those thingssuch as an immigration policy that attracts and retains high-skilled newcomers who can help build job-creating industries, and a corporate tax rate that encourages investment in domestic opportunities and not offshore tax-haven chicanery. Critically, more of the wealth created by productivity gains needs to be channeled into a stronger system of education and training. Story: Robots: The Future of the Oil Industry If the robot threat proves overblown and automation is not as transformative as is predicted or feared, then none of those efforts will have been in vain they are answers not just to the threat of robots, but also to many other issues that challenge U.S. economic potential. Our economy has a lot of problems, says Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon. If youre looking for new problems, its not robots. It makes more sense to adapt to robots taking our old jobs than to fight against it. Who knows? Once we figure out how to work with robots, we might even learn to love them. Video: Don't Fire the Cleaner, Robots Can't Learn Just Yet Story: The March of Robots Into Chinese Factories Video: Restaurants Fire Chefs as Robots Take Over Kitchen

Story: Raytheon's Missiles Are Now Made by Robots Story: A Tiny Transforming Robot Inspired by Protein (and Junkyard Magnets) Video: Are Robots Set to Take Over the Wine Making Craft? Story: Dinner and a Robot: My Night Out With a PR2 Video: Will This Disney Robot Scare Kids at Theme Parks? Story: Robotic Luggage Doesn't Deliver Video: World's Most Human-Like Robot Has Tendons Story: The $210,000 Cow-Milking Robot Video: $210K Robot Attaches to Cows, Peacefully Milks Them Video: Hate Mowing the Lawn? Get This Robot Video: Meet the Robot That Will Never Die STORY: The Velveteen Robot Story: The Robots Have Already Won (at Roshambo) Video: Hong Discusses the Evolution of Robotics Video: Are This Guy and His Robot Manufacturing's Future? Video: A Robot Whose Operator Feels Everything It Touches Previous 12 Next Grobart is a senior writer for Bloomberg Businessweek. Follow him on Twitter @samgrobart.

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a year ago

we are all slowly being made redundant by the quite softly softly invasion/introduction of technology, a lot of governments that are asleep right now will be in some serious trouble in the near future if they don't get a grip and start TAXING the use of technology to pay for the people that it replaces. almost everything being run by machines is not that far off, in fact if you really think about it a machine can be programmed to do almost anything that we can do except do politics.we will truly have nothing to do but blame each other for our woes and we all know that that is no good for a stable society in the long term
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Joo

Guest ! a year ago

You're a nut! Life is about survival of the fittest, and victory goes to the biggest battalions. The weak and stupid and unlucky will be left behind. I wish it weren't that way, but technology is a great aspect of what it means to be human, while politics is one of the lowest, meanest forms of human activity. If one zone (state, country, whatever) taxes tech, and the one next door doesn't, well, what do you think will happen in the long term? The taxing zone will die, and all its citizens will suffer. Not to mention that as soon as a tax is enacted, all the smarties will leave for greener pastures, and leave the mediocrities behind. The taxing zone will then deteriorate at an even greater rate with no one smart to help it, and the non tax zone will become more enriched. A stable society, as you use the term, is actually one which keeps up with technological trends so it doesn't fall behind. You seem to think that politicians' wisdom will protect all of us, great and small. The theory of evolution applies to us, not just animals. But you think politicians and repressive laws can save you? Get real.
1 Danny
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Guest ! a year ago

people are needed to design these robots and maintain them, robots will not invent themselves. Its not an invasion its part of the development of us a human beings. My opinion is that we need to be like China in the manufacturing sector, however without the people but with robots. Imagine that!
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Jojo 1

Danny ! a year ago

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In 20 years, robots will be designing themselves. What you gonna do then?

lunaticzombie

Jojo ! a year ago

This is really sad that the any human does not know what he will do, when all routine jobs are done by Robots. This line of thought conveys that humans are born to do jobs :( In my view human life is about finding new things, experimenting, creating music, arts, loving, basically having richer experiences in life. And that is something which only humans will enjoy and we will develop robots to enable us live our desired life...
2 Danny
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Jojo ! a year ago

! Reply ! Share

think outside the box buddy.... you think that's it? we go home and sleep because robots can design themselves?

StealthFighter

a year ago

this is pathetic, humans co-existing with robots, in the name of what, productivity? to put more human beings on earth? aren't we enough already? half of them can't feed themselves because there arent any jobs....
2
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Hello

StealthFighter ! a year ago

@StealthFighter A retarded and misinformed statement. The areas of concentrated starvation tend to have certain attributes such as persistent warfare, ethnic turmoil, catastrophic weather/location conditions such as typhoons and earthquakes, or in the case of Bangladesh living in an area that cannot possibly create enough food for itself but not taking a note from Japan and specializing in something else so they can import food. Most starvation falls within these categories which have nothing to do with jobs. In developed countries without these problems if you starve your an idiot. Living comfortably with tvs and ac is completely different from starving. There are enough benefit programs and charities to allow you to at least feed yourself. If you are not able to utilize these programs due to a language barrier

programs and charities to allow you to at least feed yourself. If you are not able to utilize these programs due to a language barrier or based off of your citizenship status it once again has nothing to do with jobs. It is on you. PS the earth produces more than enough food for everyone on the planet but there will always be transportation inefficiencies and the above conditions to create starvation. If anything increased productivity can only help in the creation of food and the accumulation of capital.
4
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Jojo

Hello ! a year ago

The above message idiotic brought to you by yet another deluded Republican with his head stuck in the dark area between his legs.
1
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Hello

Jojo ! a year ago

The above message brought to you by another deluded democrat who cannot form a cogent argument. Since he cannot win an argument he resorts to personal insults.
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Jim_Satterfield

a year ago

The article has a major fallacy in it and it is one that is repeated over and over again. The claim that robotics and other machinery that automates human jobs won't destroy jobs because someone has to build and maintain the machines is ludicrous. Company A has 5,000 workers. They buy the latest and greatest for automation in their field from ACME Robotics, eliminating 2,000 jobs. This strikes the other 49 businesses that do the same thing as a good idea and they buy the same equipment, eliminating a total of 100,000 jobs. ACME is making good money, especially since the drafting and design software they use and their own automated systems means they only employ 500 people. Oops. 95,000 net jobs gone. A simple model, admittedly, to make for easily followed numbers but the basic logic is still true. Also, it is true the the PC didn't eliminate the office worker it did drastically reduce the numbers of them needed. How many accounting clerks have been displaced by accounting software and spreadsheets? Oddly enough I'm not aware of one organization who has ever attempted to quantify that or other job displacement from technology, just fluff pieces like this one with no facts or even an attempt at even-handed research on the issue.
1
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Jojo

Jim_Satterfield ! a year ago

Politicians, Bloomberg and the rest of the MSM don't want to get serious about the automation problem because it will upset their advertisers or campaign contributors. So they delude not only themselves but their readers and followers with loads of what can only be termed BS. ============ August 18, 2012 Skilled Work, Without the Worker By JOHN MARKOFF DRACHTEN, the Netherlands -- At the Philips Electronics factory on the coast of China, hundreds of workers use their hands and specialized tools to assemble electric shavers. That is the old way. At a sister factory here in the Dutch countryside, 128 robot arms do the same work with yoga-like flexibility. Video cameras guide them through feats well beyond the capability of the most dexterous human. One robot arm endlessly forms three perfect bends in two connector wires and slips them into holes almost too small for the eye to see. The arms work so fast that they must be enclosed in glass cages to prevent the people supervising them from being injured. And they do it all without a coffee break -- three shifts a day, 365 days a year. All told, the factory here has several dozen workers per shift, about a tenth as many as the plant in the Chinese city of Zhuhai.
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1 Jojo
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a year ago

Well at least it is good to see a major business magazine acknowledging the rise of the machines. Other than that though, the article was wishy-washy & very poorly written. Coexistence is not possible. The robots will eventually take almost all the jobs, including maintaining and repairing themselves. And of course not having any answers to the overall problem, you turn to the usual platitudes about magically "innovating" our way out of the problem. So somehow we are going to create NEW industries that are going to be designed form the getgo to employ more humans instead of using automation? I don't think so.

Then of course you fall back on the old saw about how farmers (how could you also forget the buggy whip manufacturers?) managed to find work in manufacturing industry at the start of the industrial revolution when mechanization severely reduced the number of farm hands required back in 19th century. Which has about ZERO applicability to today's world! As for all those "app" designers, two points. One, most of them are not making any money. And two, many of them reside in foreign countries, which doesn't help the USA at all. Bottom line is that automation destroys more jobs than it creates. If we keep birthing more people while machines take up more jobs, why, we are going to have too many people and not enough jobs - which is exactly where we are at now! Back to the drawing/writing board with you, BW.
1 kaithor
!

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a year ago

So it seems per the article that the key advantage of humans is that they can be easily fired, as opposed to the sunk costs of buying a robot. This is depressing.
1
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Keith Pomroy

kaithor ! a year ago

Don't you realize you just made the case FOR hiring humans?
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CommieStooge

a year ago

Shortly before STAR TREK: NEXT GENERATION went on TV; I attended a TREK Convention and saw Gene Roddenberry as GOH. During a question and answer session, a child asked why there were four hundred crew on the Enterprise: he answered by saying that they were there to keep an eye on the Computers! What destroyed Colonial Civilization in "Caprica" & "Battlestar: Galactica" turned out to be a religious dispute. Hopefully, we will be smart enough to program these things with Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics. However, given human nature - I'm not so sure! Anyone watch "Colossus: The Forbin Project" lately?
1
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Jay

CommieStooge ! a year ago

"Colossus: The Forbin Project" Yup...part of my DVD collection.

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LordLiverpool 1

a year ago

More Robots + Less People = Happy Planet

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Peter Henderson

a year ago

The inventor of the digital computer, A. M. Turing, was a leftist who hoped the machine would level the playing field between white collar and blue collar workers, by doing intellectual work that formerly required an Oxonian. At first it seemed that this would not happen but we have already reached the point where computer programming can be outsourced. People will always be needed where face-time is essential, but it seems likely that the level of intellectual talent that can command a good salary will rise until only the top 1%, if that, will be paid for their brains. What will the rest of us do? Hopefully get dividends on our stocks.
1
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Jojo

Peter Henderson ! a year ago

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How did you buy those stocks that you are getting dividends on without a job to generate income? And please define "leftist".

Jennifer Lee

a year ago

For another perspective on robots/automation and the impact on jobs and the economy, read the book "The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future" http://www.thelightsinthetunne...
1 Jojo
!

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a year ago

Jojo

a year ago

Coexistence? Meh! A completely automated meat (beef?) processing plant http://www.youtube.com/watch?f... Humans are needed less and less in workplaces. How many worker jobs does this automated meat cutting plant eliminate? Who is going to have a job to earn the money to buy things? Maybe we all own a robot and it works for us and we collect its earnings?
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Hello

Jojo ! a year ago

If the work can be done at a lower cost with no disadvantages to the company the usage of these employees is pointless. At that point, the employees are just filling a slot. If production and efficiency levels keep rising the cost of items will fall. In the future, it may not be necessary for anyone to work full time. Technology does not just increase productivity, it transforms society. Your argument is that if no one has jobs then no one will be able to afford production. In that case, why would companies produce anything? Jobs should never be the goal, rather we should focus on broader economic growth. Why force companies to employee people when we can produce more for less? The overall economic goal is to create a society rich in accumulated capital and by building off of the hard work and technology of its predecessors reach a point where we can live comfortably with minimal effort. Technology is the means to that end.
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Jojo

Hello ! a year ago

We may have to work less to afford ALL humans a chance to earn money to pay for goods and services. Or perhaps we may not need to work at all because robots will provide everything for us for free while we lounge on pillows, eat grapes and drink wine all day long. But I doubt it. And if you work part-time (and therefore earn less money), do you think your landlord (or the bank holding your mortgage) will lower your monthly housing cost? Say out of the generosity of their hearts? Will the supermarket sell you food at 50% off if you are only working 50% of a full-time week? No, I don't think so. There are many unintended and also not yet understood consequences that will occur as our society becomes more automated.
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Hello

Jojo ! a year ago

My point was that we will be able to produce the same amount with less work. During the industrial revolution we all worked insane hours, now 40 hours is the norm. Not that people don't work more, just that 40 hours is more common. Likewise, in the future we may be making equivalent income for less hours of work. The dollar amount may fluctuate but the purchasing power should increase. No one is going to sell for less out of the goodness of their heart, but rather due to positive economic conditions. There are many unforeseen consequences of technology and that was my point. I fully expect there to be turmoil for a long time as we adjust to new realities, but I believe it will reach a point of equilibrium.
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Carlos

a year ago

Maybe it's time to lawfully force some social or collective ownership of fully automated factories. For example, by declaring that a percentage of the companies must be owned by thousands of individuals. The problem plausibly relies on the hyper-concentration of wealth, not on the productivity leap.
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eyeShare

a year ago

You don't have to hire a robot to do your work, you can use a virtual one, IT automation software can reduce more than 80% of your job. Robots = Automation.
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JohnnyNoname

a year ago

Beware of Skynet!!!
! Reply ! Share

Hello

JohnnyNoname ! a year ago

Although, time travel would be awesome.

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Obamacare Isn't the Democrats' Biggest Problem. Slow Job Growth Is

How the FAA Found One Airline a New Product Line

The Latest Tennessee Whiskey War

Why China Needs Such Rapid GDP Growth: More Jobs

End of Windows XP Support Means Added Opportunity for Hackers

China Offers Freebies to Promote Burials at Sea

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