AIAA/ICAS International Air and Space Symposium and Exposition: The Next 100 Y
14-17 July 2003, Dayton, Ohio
THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING AVIATION
SAFETY AND REDUCING THE ACCIDENT RATE
by
Stuart Matthews
Associate Fellow, AIAA
President and CEO, Flight Safety Foundation
Alexandria, Virginia
Abstract
This paper examines the main causes and types of
accidents that occur in aviation and shows what can, and
is being, done to prevent them. It gives estimates of the
effect on the overall accident rate if each of the various
causes could be eliminated in order to show to what
extent the U.S. national goal can be met.
Fig. 1 Introduction
Fig. 2. Since the introduction of jet aircraft
into air transport service in the late 1950s, the commercial
aviation accident rate has been reduced dramatically to an
extremely low level. By any standards, commercial
aviation is extremely safe and it is probably the very
safest means of mass transportation available today.
Nevertheless, in recent years, despite the strenuous efforts
of the industry, the accident rate has only been further
reduced by marginal amounts.
Fig. 3. On the other hand traffic continues to
rise and, notwithstanding wars and economic depressions,
it is expected to double from its present level during the
next 15 years or so. The problem that the industry faces
is quite simple. Unless we can make significant
reductions in the accident rate in coming years, we are
going to see a significant increase in the actual number of
accidents. The often quoted “one major accident a week
somewhere in the world” could be a very real possibility.
Of course, as we all know, the public does not like
airplane accidents. Consequently, moral reasons apart,
for the future economic health and well being of the
industry, it is imperative that we decrease the number of
accidents. In the face of inevitably rising traffic, this
means we must decrease the accident rate. Of course, we
have been aware of this for a number of years and much
work has been done by numerous organizations around
the world, including my own Flight Safety Foundation
(FSF), to find ways of improving safety and so bring it
about.
1
Copyright © 2003 by Stuart Matthews. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., with permission.
AIAA 2003-2796
Fig. 4. Particularly in the FSF we have
focused on accident statistics to ascertain where the
main problems lie. Based upon past experience, we
know when most accidents happen. Statistics show that
the major risk is during approach and landing. This is
when about half of all aircraft accidents occur.
Fig. 5. We also know the types of
accidents that cause the most loss of life. Although
there are numerous different types, all of which must be
addressed to a greater or lesser degree, the greatest
concern and by far the leading cause of aviation
fatalities during the last ten years has been controlled
flight into terrain (CFIT) accidents, most of which
happen during the approach and landing phase of flight.
More recently, loss of control (LOC) has challenged
CFIT as being the major cause of fatalities. Elimination
of CFIT and LOC alone would significantly reduce the
overall accident rate.
Fig. 6 Then there are human factors. In
virtually every accident, not only in aviation, but in any
industry, any time, anywhere, one of the contributory
causes is human error. In about 85 per cent of all
accidents, someone has made a mistake. Consequently,
even if every other cause were to be removed, we
would still have to contend with the human element.
Fig. 7. Although the accident rates in
North America, Europe and other parts of the
developed world are extremely low, other areas have
significantly higher rates. South America, Africa, South
East Asia and the former Soviet Union all have
horrendous rates in comparison. Despite having
considerably lower traffic, proportionally they have
many more accidents.
Fig. 8. Consequently it should be no surprise
that for some time the four primary safety concerns of the
worldwide aviation industry have been human factors,
particularly flight crew errors; approach and landing;
CFIT; and LOC. These are the main problems that the
FSF has concentrated on in recent years in order to further
improve safety, the focus of our educational and training
efforts being on those regions having the highest accident
rates.
Fig. 9. Regrettably, however, as I have
already said, low accident rates are meaningless to the
general public, as well as to most politicians and the mass
media. The only thing that counts for them is the actual
number of accidents. Despite their rarity, public concerns
and perceptions are heightened every time there is an
aviation accident, particularly if it is seen as being
particularly severe. This was all brought dramatically to a
head in the summer of 1996 with the occurrence of two
particularly harrowing accidents that befell the US
industry.
Fig 10. Firstly in May, a DC 9 of ValuJet
suffered an in flight fire and plunged into the Florida
Everglades with the loss of everyone on board, 110
passengers and crew.
Fig 11. Then, two months later, a TWA B747
was lost shortly after takeoff from New York when the
residual fuel vapor in one of its tanks somehow exploded
as it climbed to altitude. The aircraft disappeared in a
massive fireball into the Atlantic Ocean and 230 men,
women and children died.
Fig 12. As a direct result of these two tragic
accidents, and the ensuing public outcry, two separate
commissions were established to review the safety of U.S.
air transport. The first was a special White House
Commission set up President Clinton under the
chairmanship of, then, Vice President Al Gore.
Fig.13 The second was the National Civil
Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) chaired by, then,
Representative Norman Mineta, who is presently the
Secretary of Transportation.
Fig 14 Both commissions conducted
considerable numbers of hearings, taking evidence from
virtually every sector of the industry. Each made a
number of significant recommendations relating to the
conduct of future safety improvement efforts that have
since been combined together and adopted. In general, the
main recommendations emanating from the two
commissions can be summarized as follows:
1. A strategic plan should be developed to ensure
achievement of a national goal to reduce the U.S. fatal
accident rate by 80 per cent over a 10 year period
beginning in 1997.
2. Safety improvements should be statistically driven.
The initial focus should be on those areas that would
bring the biggest or best results. In the past, as a result
2
of media attention and political pressure, there had
frequently been a tendency to concentrate on the causes
of the most recent accident.
3. Continued improvement of aviation safety should be
a joint and coordinated effort between industry and
government. It had been observed that government and
different sectors of industry were frequently duplicating
efforts.
4. While the focus would be on strategies to improve
the safety of U.S. aviation, there should also be
international cooperation and coordination to help
improve aviation safety worldwide.
Fig 15 The newly established national goal
to reduce the accident rate would more than offset the
anticipated increase in traffic with a consequent
reduction of the number of accidents.
Fig. 16. The FAA had developed an agenda
driven by the prevailing data. Known as “Safer Skies”,
it focused on the reduction of CFIT, approach and
landing, LOC and human factors as high priorities. We
at FSF were particularly pleased that the priorities were
very much in line with those that we had been
advocating and pursuing for several years.
Fig. 17 Industry and especially
organizations like the FSF had been prioritizing their
efforts using the same accident statistics and accident
data used by the FAA. Consequently, it was not
difficult to adopt the NCARC recommendation that all
sectors should work together. The government’s efforts,
including “Safer Skies”, were combined together with
those of industry and the Commercial Aviation Safety
Team (CAST) was born. With government interests on
one side and industry stakeholders on the other, CAST
is truly representative of all sectors of the aviation
industry.
CAST soon established clear objectives to guide its work,
based on the recommendations made by the White House
Commission and the NCARC. These were to reduce the
U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80 per
cent by 2007 and to work together with other
organizations around the world to reduce the worldwide
commercial aviation fatal accident rate.
CAST was aware of safety improvement efforts that were
underway internationally, particularly in Europe where
the JAA’s Joint Safety Strategy Initiative (JSSI) was also
working on similar priorities and with similar goals.
Consequently, in accordance with its overall objectives
and the safety commissions’ recommendations, JSSI and
other foreign organizations were invited to join the CAST
forum to make it an international effort.
Fig 18. To pursue its objectives in an orderly
manner, CAST developed a relatively simple data driven
process to determine which of many hundreds of possible
safety improvement recommendations should be selected
for priority action.
Past accidents are analyzed to identify the causes and
interventions (procedural or technical improvements) that
might have been used to prevent them; implement the
most promising improvements, measure the results and, if
necessary, repeat the process.
Fig. 19. This is done through a series of
teams. Joint Safety Analysis Teams, known as “JSATs”,
study accidents and incidents in a selected flight category
such as CFIT. They identify the causes and other
contributory factors as well as the most effective
interventions that might have eliminated them.
Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSITs) make
feasibility studies of these interventions and develop
specific safety improvement solutions together with plans
for how they should be implemented. These studies take
into account a number of factors such as technical
feasibility, financial, operational, schedule, regulatory and
sociological considerations.
A Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis
Team, (JIMDAT), assesses these safety solutions for their
relative effectiveness across all flight categories in order
to prioritize the improvement actions recommended for
implementation.
Industry trend data from FOQA and ASAP programs
will identify if implementation of specific intervention
strategies is correcting the problems and what revisions,
if any, might be necessary.
Fig 20. As I showed earlier, it was already
well known which categories of accidents were
happening most often and causing the greatest losses of
life and property. Addressing these main categories
would go a long way towards achieving the national
safety improvement goal.
3
Fig. 21. Consequently the current CAST projects are
aimed at CFIT prevention; approach and landing
accident reduction; runway incursions; loss of control
and turbulence.
Fig 22. Using the CAST process it has
been possible to sort through literally hundreds of
recommendations and to develop a strategic safety plan
that details 46 priority safety improvement actions, of
which 20 have already been completed. The plan is a
combination of short term actions, such as training or
standard operating procedures, and longer range design
based solutions.
In addition there are several prioritized research and
development projects, including work on Synthetic
Vision Systems, Runway Occupancy Signal, ASAP and
FOQA programs, Datalink, Precision-Like Approach,
Ice Detection and Human Factors.
Now let’s take a look at some of the things that have
already been done. Time does not permit a fully
comprehensive review of all the recommendations that
have been committed or completed. Consequently I will
just summarize those relating to the most important
areas that, I hope, will give a good impression of the
significant work that is being done and the anticipated
outcomes.
Fig 23. Because it is one of the major
killers there has been heavy emphasis on CFIT.
Intervention strategies have revolved around technical,
procedural and educational enhancements.
Technical improvements include:
- Terrain avoidance warning systems (TAWS) fitted
into the aircraft.
- Minimum safe altitude warning systems (MSAWS) is
being installed at airports. ATC personnel have been
trained on timely alerts.
Procedural improvements include:
- CFIT standard operating procedures
- Crew resource management for CFIT
- Proactive safety monitoring (FOQA)
Educational
- CFIT prevention training for flight crews and ATC. All
US airlines are now doing such training. Similarly all
ATC personnel have been trained to recognize potential
CFIT situations such as “slam dunk” approaches.
Long term, it is anticipated that research into synthetic
vision will significantly further reduce the risks of CFIT,
as well as many other risks.
Fig. 24 There is no doubt that CFIT could be
virtually eliminated if all aircraft were fitted with TAWS
– onboard equipment that gives visual and aural warnings
of terrain that might be a threat to the aircraft’s flight
path. TAWS is now a mandatory requirement on all new
large commercial aircraft. Although, regrettably, we have
seen a resurgence of CFIT accidents in the past year, it
has not happened to any aircraft fitted with improved
technical equipment such as this.
Fig 25. Precision Approaches (constant angle
descents) entail some five to seven times less risk than
step down approaches. Wherever possible runway
approach procedures are being redesigned and vertical
angles are being added to approach charts to give better
guidance to flight crews.
A plan is being developed to install VGSI at each runway
end used by air carriers with priority for the highest risk
runways. Essential flight information such as holding
speeds in icing conditions is being incorporated in all
flight manuals.
On the training the emphasis is on standard operating
procedures and the development of a safety culture that
encourages a “go around” if things are not right.
Operational feed back obtained from flight data
monitoring (FOQA programs) will also identify incipient
problems that can be corrected before they become
serious.
Fig 26. Approach and landing is an area in
which the FSF has played a major role and we have
produced our Approach and Landing Accident
Reduction (ALAR) Tool Kit that is now being
distributed world wide by special teams who are
training regional and local people on its use. The Tool
Kit contains all of the procedures approved by CAST
for implementation and many more besides. By far the
majority of CFIT accidents occur during the approach
and landing phase of flight, so improvements here also
reduce CFIT risks.
Fig. 27 Two of FSF’s major ALAR
recommendations were for the use of constant angle
stabilized precision approaches and color contour
approach plates. The approach plates now being
4
produced contain all the relevant information as well as
providing significantly improved situational awareness
for the flight crew.
Fig. 28. In the area of Loss of Control,
operators are providing advanced maneuvers (unusual
attitude recovery) training for their flight crews. Pilots
are taught to recover from hazardous flight conditions
using simulators, the emphasis being on recognition and
prevention.
FOQA programs monitor operational performance of
the crews and provide feedback that can be
incorporated in recurrent training programs. They can
also identify the possible need for supplementary
training for individual crew members to ensure
maintenance of highest operational standards.
Flight envelope protection, already incorporated in
some of the more advanced aircraft in operation today,
will be incorporated in future designs.
Fig. 29. Growing concern about the risks of
runway incursions has prompted much attention on this
area. To combat this problem, in the first instance, there
has been increased emphasis on the use of enhanced
standard procedures for ground operations and the FAA
has issued advisory templates of SOPs that can be used
by both air carriers and general aviation pilots. Best
practice procedures have also been developed for use
by operators of ground equipment and for towing
aircraft.
Technological improvements for monitoring runway
occupancy and other surface surveillance are being
developed to provide greater situational awareness to
air traffic and ground controllers as well as pilots. This
is another area where synthetic vision will help further
reduce the risks.
Fig 30. Putting this altogether, we believe
that by full implementation of the currently approved
CAST recommendations for safety enhancements, it will
now be possible to significantly reduce numerous
accident categories, particularly the ones of most current
concern - CFIT, loss of control and runway incursions
Fig 31. I have given you a general idea of the
numerous priority safety enhancements that CAST has
recommended and that are now being implemented. As
you might have realized, in many instances an
improvement or intervention strategy in one area can also
bring benefits in other areas. Consequently, this is
definitely a case where one plus one can equal three, or
maybe even four!

We believe that full implementation of the CAST

recommendations made to date will bring about a 72 per
cent reduction in the fatal accident rate that prevailed in
1997. This value increases to 78 per cent when the
beneficial effects of other ongoing safety initiatives being
developed outside of CAST by industry and government
are considered. In short, there is every reason to believe
that the national goal can and will be met.

Further, you will recall that CAST’s JSIT feasibility

analysis also took into account the financial aspects of
each intervention measure. We believe the 72 per cent
reduction in the fatal accident rate can be accomplished
by 2007 at the relatively modest cost of around $500
million. At the present time, implementing many more
safety enhancements would only produce marginally
improved results at a very significantly higher cost.

Fig 32. Some might think $500 million to

be a substantial amount of money. However consider
the savings. The FAA has calculated, on the basis of
current statistics and the known costs of aircraft
accidents, that the accident cost per flight is $90. If the
accident rate can be reduced to the levels that we are
predicting can now be achieved as a result of the
current CAST plan, then the accident cost per flight will
be reduced to about $32 per flight, - a saving of $58 for
every departure. This means that these improved safety
measures will bring about savings of over $500 million
every year into the future. Assuming the additional
improvements coming from outside CAST can attain
the 78 per cent improvement level that I mentioned
above, the savings will be over $ 700 million a year,

Suffice it to say that improving safety and saving lives

is not only a moral imperative, it is also very good for
business!

5
 Air Transport Is Already
Safe
Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet Accident Rate
The Potential for
Improving Aviation Safety
and
Reducing the Accident Rate
by
by
Stuart Matthews
President
President and
and CEO
CEO
Flight
Flight Safety
Safety Foundation
Foundation
98
98 00
00
AIAA/ICAS
AIAA/ICAS International
International Air
Air and
and Space
Space Symposium
Symposium
Dayton, 1 2
Dayton, Ohio
Ohio 16 th July,
16th July, 2003
2003

Accidents Will Increase When Aircraft Accidents

Happen
35 70
Worldwide Jet Operations (average flight time 1.6 hours)
Departures (Millions)/Rate Per Million

Excludes: sabotage, military action, turbulence injury and evacuation

evacuation injury.
30 60
Percentage of accidents 49.1%
25 50
Load, Takeoff Initial Climb Cruise Descent Initial Final Landing
taxi, 12.8% climb 6.5% 5.8% 6.4% approach app 29.3%
Accidents

20 Accidents1 40 unload 7.8% 6.6% 19.8%

5.0%

15 30
Traffic Growth2
10 20
Flaps retracted

5 Accident Rate3 10

0 0 Nav fix Outer marker

1960 65 70 75 1Basedon current accident rate 2000 05 10 1% 1% 13% 60% 10% 11% 3% 1%
2
Based on industry estimate
3Basedon current accident rate
3 Exposure, percentage of flight time 4

Primary Causes of Aircraft

Types of Aircraft Accidents Accidents
3000

Total fatalities = 7,484

2500 2,396 CFIT = Controlled Flight into Terrain
2,228 RTO = Rejected takeoff

2000
Note: Some non-onboard fatalities are included in this chart. Other
Fatalities

1500

Airplane
1000
760
607
506

Human error
500 306
162
128 119 113 111
45 3
0
CFIT Loss of In-flight Sabo- Midair Hijack Ice/ Landing Wind Fuel Other Runway RTO
control
in flight
fire tage collision snow shear exhaus-
tion
incursion
0 20 40 60 80 100
5 Percentage of current accident rate 6
 Accident Rates Vary
Major Focus of FSF Activities

0.4 4.0 Prime concerns:

0.4 2.0 •• Human
Human Factors
Factors
1.8 0.6 •• Approach
Approach and
and landing
landing
2.2 •• CFIT
CFIT
•• Loss
Loss of
of control
control
8.1
Regional Focus:
3.4 • South America
0.2 • Africa
• South East Asia
World 1.2
7 8
Hull Losses per Million Departures. Western Built Jets 1990 - 1999

Public Perceptions

• Low accident rates are meaningless

• Number of accidents is the criterion

• Accidents must be decreased

9 Searching for ValueJet 592 10

White House Commission

on Aviation Safety and Security

TW 800 reconstruction
11 12
 National Civil Aviation Review Commissions’ Recommendations
Commission
• There should be a national goal to reduce the fatal
accident rate by 80 per cent in 10 years from 1997

• Improving aviation safety should be a joint effort

between government and industry

• Safety efforts should be driven by statistics. Focus

on those areas that would produce the best results

• US efforts to improve aviation safety should be

expanded worldwide

13 14

Anticipated Safety SAFER SKIES - A FOCUSED AGENDA

Improvements COMMERCIAL AVIATION

35 70 GENERAL AVIATION Controlled Flight

Into Terrain
Departures (Millions)/Rate Per Million

CABIN SAFETY
Pilot Decision making
30 60
Loss of Control

Loss of Control Passenger Interference

25 50 Uncontained
Engine Failures
Weather Passenger Seat Belt Use
Accidents

20 Accidents 40
Runway Incursion
Controlled Flight Carry-on Baggage
15 30 Into Terrain

Approach and Landing

Survivability

The goal
10 20 Child Restraint

5 Accident Rate 10 Runway Incursions Weather

Turbulence
0 0
1960 65 70 75 1Based on current accident rate 2000 05 10 HUMAN FACTORS
2
Based on industry estimate IMPROVED DATA
3Based on current accident rate
& ANALYSIS IN OPERATIONS &
15 MAINTENANCE 16

U.S. Safety Coordination Program CAST Process

Industry
Industry Government
Government
AIA
AIA • Analyze past accidents to identify:
Airbus
Airbus
ALPA FAA - contributory causes
ALPA FAA
APA
APA •• Certification
Certification - possible intervention strategies
•• Flight
Flight Standards
Standards
ATA
ATA
Boeing Commercial
Commercial Aviation
Aviation •• System
System Safety
Safety
Boeing
FSF
DOD
DOD Safety
Safety Team
Team • Implement best interventions
NASA
NASA
NATCA
NATCA (CAST) JSSI
JSSI (JAA)
(JAA)
NBAA
NBAA
P&W*
P&W*
ICAO
ICAO
CASA
• Measure results
CASA
RAA
RAA Transport
Transport Canada
Canada
IATA
IATA
The Goal :
AAPA
AAPA Reduce the fatal aviation accident rate • Repeat the process
ATAC
ATAC
IFALPA
by 80 per cent in ten years
IFALPA 17 18
∗∗ Representing
Representing GE
GE and
and RR
RR
 Joint CAST Process Teams Fatality Risk
(1987-2000)

Safety Safety Implementation 100

Analysis Implementation Measurement 90

Data Analysis

Fatality Risk %
80

JSAT JSIT JIMDAT 70

60
50

•• Identify:
Identify: •• Feasibility
Feasibility studies
studies of
of •• Assess
Assess safety
safety solutions
solutions 40
interventions:
interventions: -- relative
relative effectiveness
effectiveness 30
•• Accident
Accident causes
causes
-- Technical
Technical •• Prioritize
Prioritize actions
actions
•• Possible
Possible interventions
interventions 20
-- Financial
Financial •• Master
Master safety
safety plan
plan
10
-- Operational
Operational •• Measure
Measure effectiveness
effectiveness
-- Regulatory
Regulatory •• Future
Future areas
areas ofof study
study 0

EF
Inc
-- Schedule

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p

ac
on
Schedule

n
F lt
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nd
ta

om
ir
sio

UC
IT

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isi

da
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ew
-- Sociological

To

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Sociological

CF
LO

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s-C
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oll

Mi

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•• Develop
Develop best
best solutions

LO

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solutions

yC
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Sy
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•• Prepare
Prepare implementation

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implementation

nw
Fir
plans
plans

Ru
19 20

CAST Strategic Safety Plan

Current CAST Projects
• Contains 46 safety enhancements
-- 20
20 completed
completed so
so far
far
-- 26
26 committed
committed and
and underway
underway
•• CFIT
CFIT • Initially combines short-term actions
-- education
education and
and training
training
•• Approach
Approach and
and Landing
Landing -- standard
standard operating
operating procedures
procedures
• Transition to design change enhancements
•• Runway
Runway Incursion
Incursion long term
-- installation
installation of
of technical
technical equipment
equipment
•• Loss
Loss of
of Control
Control • Several prioritized R & D projects including
-- synthetic
synthetic vision
vision
•• Turbulence
Turbulence -- runway
runway occupancy
occupancy signals
signals
• Forms basis for continuous improvements
21
in worldwide aviation safety 22

Safety Plan Improvements CFIT Recommendation

Completed
Controlled Flight Into Terrain:
• Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
• Colored approach charts
• Minimum Safe Altitude Warning Systems (MSAWS)
• Proactive Safety Programs
-- FOQA
FOQA and
and ASAP
ASAP
• CFIT Crew Resource Management Training
• CFIT Prevention training
• Air Traffic Controller CFIT training
• CFIT Standard Operating Procedures Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS)
for better terrain awareness and early warning
23 24
 Safety Plan Improvements
Committed
Approach and Landing Accident Reduction (ALAR)
• Precision approach implementation (PAI)
-- five
five times
times less
less risk
risk than
than step
step downs
downs

• Installation of VGSI on all commercial runways

• Development of stabilized vertical path instrument

approach:
-- procedures
procedures
-- displays
displays
-- training
training

• Additional essential information in flight manuals

-- holding
holding speeds
speeds in
in icing
icing conditions
conditions 25 26

ALAR Recommendation Safety Plan Improvements

Committed
• Use of color contour Loss of Control (LOC):
approach charts
• Advanced Maneuvers Training for Flight Crew
-- better
better situational
situational awareness
awareness -- unusual
unusual attitude
attitude recovery
recovery

• Precision approaches • Flight data results incorporated into recurrent training

-- FOQA
FOQA
constant angle -- ASAP
ASAP
-- five
five times
times less
less risk
risk
• Human factors elements incorporated into
-- training
training
-- SOPs
SOPs

• Flight Envelope Protection in new aircraft designs

Courtesy: Jeppesen Sanderson 27 28

Safety Plan Improvements Reduction in Fatality Risk

by the CAST Plan
Committed (2007
(2007 Implementation
Implementation Values)
Values)
Runway Incursions: 100
100 Risk
Risk Eliminated
Eliminated
• Enhanced airport surveillance equipment
%
Risk %

Risk
Risk Remaining
Remaining
80
80
of Risk

• Standard operating procedures (SOPs)

-Tow
-Tow tug
tug operators 60
60
Portion of

operators
-- Pilots
Pilots CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss
Portion

Dataset Security events excluded.

-- ATC
ATC 40
40
-- Clearance
Clearance read-back
read-back requirements
requirements
-- General
General Aviation
Aviation 20
20
• Training 0
0
-- Vehicle
Vehicle operators
pp
iirr

operators
FFlltt

EFF
iioonn
ttaal

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l

IITT

dd

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c

E
iddaa

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Gnn
ssiioo

UCC
TToo

CCFF

Coo
CG
lllliiss
OC

-- Tow
Tow tug
tug operators
C

Mi

gg--U

operators
ullee
ss--C
M

w
plloo
LLO

ew
OC

rrbbu
CCoo

CCrre
Exxp

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-- Pilots
SSyy
EEnn

Pilots
TTuu
ee//E

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wa

-- ATC
ATC 29 30
nnw
FFiirr

RRuu
 The Costs of Risk Reduction CAST Safety Plan Benefits
NATIONAL
NATIONAL GOAL CAST
CAST approved
approved plan
plan
%

GOAL
Enhancements %

80
80 10000
10000
• Current accident cost per flight $90
Safety Enhancements

70
70 9000
9000
Risk
Risk Reduction
Reduction
8000
60 Total
Total Cost
Cost 8000
• Estimated accident cost per flight $32

Millions)
60

($ Millions)
7000
50
50
7000
- after
after implementation
implementation of
of 46
46 safety
safety
6000
6000
by Safety

enhancements
enhancements

Cost ($
40
40 5000
5000

Resource Cost
2007 2020
Eliminated by

4000
4000
30
30 • Savings per flight $58
Risk Eliminated

Resource
3000
3000
20
20
2000
2000
10
10 1000
1000 Estimated annual savings to industry
Risk

00
Completed Completed + Completed + All JSIT
00
in 2007 will exceed $500 million
Plan (2007 Plan (2020 Proposed
Implementation Implementation Enhancements

Safety is good for business!

(2020
Level) Level) Implementation
Level) 31 32
Excludes
Excludes security
security risks
risks
CAST-050