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CHAPTER-1 INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Portfolio is a group of financial assets such as shares, stock, bonds, debt investment, mutual fund, cash e uivalents, etc !, A portfolio is planned to stabili"e the risk of nonperformance of various peoples investment! #anagement is the organi"ation and co-ordination of the activities of an enterprise in accordance $ith $ell-defined policies and achievement of its pre-defined ob%ectives.

INVESTMENT
The retail investors could have done ver& little to actuall& invest in commodities such as gold and silver or oilseeds in the futures market! This $as nearl& impossible in commodities e'cept for gold and silver as there $as practicall& no retail avenue for pumping in commodities! Ho$ever, $ith the setting up of si' multi-commodit& e'changes in the countr&, retail investors can no$ trade in commodit& futures $ithout having ph&sical stock! Commodities actuall& offer immense potential to become a separate asset class for market surve& investors, arbitrageurs and speculators! Retail investors, $ho claim to understand the e uit& markets, ma& find commodities an unfathomable market! (ut commodities are eas& to understand as far as fundamentals of demand and suppl& are concerned! Retail investors should understand the risks and advantages of trading in commodities futures before taking a leap! Historicall&, pricing in commodities futures has been less volatile compared $ith e uit& and bonds, thus providing an efficient portfolio diversification option

GOLD
)old is a uni ue asset based on fe$ basic characteristics! *irst, it is primaril& a monetar& asset, and partl& a commodit&! As much as t$o thirds of gold+s total accumulated holdings relate to ,store of value- considerations! Holdings in this categor& include the central Commodit& E'change reserves, private investments, and high-cartage %e$elr& bought primaril& in developing countries as a vehicle for savings! Thus, gold is primaril& a monetar& asset! .ess than one third of gold+s total accumulated holdings can be considered a commodit&, the %e$elr& bought in /estern markets for adornment, and gold used in industr&! 0ome anal&sts like to think of gold as a ,currenc& $ithout a countr&+! 1t is an internationall& recogni"ed asset that is not dependent upon an& government+s promise to pa&! This is an important feature $hen comparing gold to conventional diversifiers like T-bills or bonds, $hich unlike gold, do have counter-part& risk )old is a monetar& metal $hose price is determined b& inflation, b& fluctuations in the dollar and 2!0! stocks, b& currenc&-related crises, interest rate volatilit& and international tensions, and b& increases or decreases in the prices of other commodities! The price of gold reacts to suppl& and demand changes and can be influenced b& consumer spending and overall levels of affluence! )old is different from other precious metals such as platinum, palladium and silver because the demand for these precious metals arises principall& from their industrial applications! )old is produced primaril& for accumulation3 other commodities are produced primaril& for consumption! )old+s value does not arise from its usefulness in industrial or consumable applications! 1t arises from its use and $orld$ide acceptance as a store of value! )old is mone&!

Gold An Investment Parad se


)old has been s&non&mous to $ealth and prosperit& through the ages! The histor& of )old dates back to as earl& as 4555 (C $hen the prehistoric men used it as a tool! 0ince then )old has filled the pages of histor& as the divine metal that has attracted the attention of men 6po$erful and other$ise! )old $as the source of po$er for the kings! /ars $ere $aged3 lives $ere lost as kingdoms piled up and hoarded tonnes of )old! 1n the modern histor&, )old became the international currenc& as the )old standard came into e'istence! Even after the dismantling of )old standard, )old e'isted as the backbone of international trade

and economics as the 20 accumulated tones of &ello$ metal! Till toda&, )old has retained its basic use as a commodit& $ithout losing its sheen as a currenc&!

)old, because of its abilit& to protect the $ealth of investors can be an ideal addition to a portfolio! Also the short-term fluctuations in )old offer good potential for trading! )old has been on its long-term up$ards tra%ector& $hich began in earl& 7551! This long-term move has been punctuated b& short-term pullbacks offering opportunities for late entrants to %oin the band$agon! /ith the 20 econom& outgro$ing the league of developed nations during the last t$o &ears coupled $ith the $orsening of long-term structural $eaknesses and the subse uent movements in the 208 have moved the focus a$a& from )old+s use as a commodit&! Ho$ever the long-term fundamentals of the &ello$ metal have also undergone a significant change $ith the mining output falling uite steadil& during the last decade coupled $ith an evergreen demand especiall& from Asia!

This report anal&ses the long-term and short-term fundamental factors e'pected to move )old prices! /e believe that the short-term $eakness e'pected in gold is a great opportunit& for the late-comers to %oin the great )old! 0trategicall&, gold is one of the t$o most important commodities on the planet along $ith crude oil! )old has been historicall& recogni"ed as the ultimate store of value and method of pa&ment! The follo$ing characteristics of )old have enabled it pla& this role9

1t is durable, homogenous and divisible

)old+s rarit& gives it intrinsic value and that value is high per unit of volume!

1ts value is recogni"ed across the globe and is traded in a continuous market!

)old is the onl& financial medium of e'change that is not someone else+s liabilit&!

In !"dat n# o!r "r $e o!tloo%& 'e (ave $ons dered t(e )ollo' n# )a$tors*

1nvestment demand $ill continue to be the prime driver for the rall& in )old prices,

As economic factors $ill make gold more attractive compared to other financial assets!

*urthermore strong bu&ing support from the Central (anks of Russia, China and

#iddle East countries $ill help support the rall& in )old prices!

#ine production $ill not be able to meet current demand due to lack of ne$

8iscoveries!

The long term average in the Crude:)old ratio has been around 1; times, but is

Currentl& onl& around 15 times!

1n the remaining part of this report $e $ill consider the ma%or factors that are likel& to drive )old prices higher in the near future!

+as $ Des$r "t ve terms*

Investment*

The mone& &ou earn is partl& spent and the rest saved for meeting future E'penses! 1nstead of keeping the savings idle, &ou ma& like to use savings in <rder to get return on it in the future! This is called 1nvestment!

Reasons )or nvestment*


<ne needs to invest to9 Earn return on &our idle resources )enerate a specified sum of mone& for a specific goal in life #ake a provision for an uncertain future

1t is also to meet the cost of 1nflation. 1nflation is the rate at $hich the cost of living increases! The cost of living is simpl& $hat it costs to bu& the goods and services &ou need to live! 1nflation causes mone& to lose value because it $ill not bu& the same amount of a good or a service in the future, as it does no$ or did in the past! This is $h& it is important to consider inflation as a factor in an& long-term investment strateg&! The aim of investments should be to provide a return above the inflation rate to ensure that the investment does not decrease in value!

R #(t t me )or nvestment*


The sooner one starts investing the better! (& investing earl& $e allo$ our 1nvestments more time to gro$, $hereb& the concept of compounding increases &our income, b& accumulating the principal and the interest or dividend earned on it, &ear after &ear! The three golden rules for all investors are9 1nvest earl& 1nvest regularl& 1nvest for long term and not short term

Var o!s o"t ons ava la,le )or nvestment*<ne ma& invest in9 P(.s $al assets like real estate, gold:%e$eller&, commodities etc!

F nan$ al assets such as fi'ed deposits $ith banks, small saving instruments $ith post offices, insurance:provident:pension fund etc! or securities market related instruments like shares, bonds, debentures etc!

/0AT MA1ES GOLD SPECIAL2 T meless and Ver. T mel. Investment9


*or thousands of &ears, gold has been pri"ed for its rarit&, its beaut&, and above all, for its uni ue characteristics as a store of value! =ations ma& rise and fall, currencies come and go, but gold endures! 1n toda&+s uncertain climate, man& investors turn to gold because it is an important and secure asset that can be tapped at an& time, under virtuall& an& circumstances! (ut there is another side to gold that is e uall& important, and that is its da&-to-da& performance as a stabili"ing influence for investment portfolios!

Gold s an e))e$t ve d vers ) er*


8iversification helps protect &our portfolio against fluctuations in the value of an& oneasset class! )old is an ideal diversifier, because the economic forces that determine the price of gold are different from, and in man& cases opposed to, the forces that influence most financial assets

Gold s t(e deal # )t*


1n man& cultures, gold serves as a famil& treasure or a $ealth transfer vehicle that is passed on from generation to generation! )old bullion coins make e'cellent gifts for birthda&s, graduations, $eddings, holida&s and other occasions!

The& are appreciated as much for their intrinsic value as for their m&stical appeal and beaut&! And because gold is available in a $ide range of si"es and denominations, &ou don+t need to be $ealth& to give the gift of gold

Gold s ( #(l. l 3! d*
)old can be readil& bought or sold 74 hours a da&, in large denominations and at narro$ spreads! This cannot be said of most other investments, including stocks of the $orld+s largest corporations! )old is also more li uid than man& alternative assets such as venture capital, real estate, and timberland! )old proved to be the most effective means of raising cash during the 1>?@ stock market crash, and again during the 1>>@:>? Asian debt crisis! 0o holding a portion of &our portfolio in gold can be invaluable in moments $hen cash is essential, $hether for margin calls or other needs!

Gold res"onds '(en .o! need t most*


Recent independent studies have revealed that traditional diversifiers often fall during times of market stress or instabilit&! <n these occasions, most asset classes Aincluding traditional diversifiers such as bonds and alternative assetsB all move together in the same direction! There is no ,cushioning- effect of a diversified portfolio C leaving investors disappointed! Ho$ever, a small allocation of gold has been proven to significantl& improve the consistenc& of portfolio performance, during both stable and unstable financial periods! )reater consistenc& of performance leads to a desirable outcome C an investor $hose e'pectations are met!

T0E REASON /04 INVESTORS O/N GOLD


There are si' primar& reasons $h& investors o$n gold9 The& ma& never be more relevant than the& are toda&! 1! As a hedge against inflation! 7! As a hedge against a declining dollar! D! As a safe haven in times of geopolitical and financial market instabilit&! 4! As a commodit&, based on gold+s suppl& and demand fundamentals! E! As a store of value!

;! As a portfolio diversifier!

5. 0EDGE AGAINST INFLATION


)old is reno$ned as a hedge against inflation! The most consistent factor determining the price of gold has been inflation - as inflation goes up, the price of gold goes up along $ith it! 0ince the end of /orld /ar 11, the five &ears in $hich 2!0! inflation $as at its highest $ere 1>4;, 1>@4, 1>@E, 1>@>, and 1>?5! 8uring those five &ears, the average real return on stocks, as measured b& the 8o$, $as -17!DDF3 the average real return on gold $as 1D5!4F! Toda&, a number of factors are conspiring to create the perfect inflationar& storm9 e'tremel& simulative monetar& polic&, a ma%or ta' cut, a long term decline in the dollar, a spike in oil prices, a huge trade deficit, and America+s status as the $orld+s biggest debtor nation! Almost across the board, commodit& prices are up despite the short-term absence of a $eakening dollar $hich is often vie$ed as the principal reason for stronger commodit& prices!

6. GOLD - 0EDGE AGAINST A DECLINING DOLLAR


)old is bought and sold in 2!0! dollars, so an& decline in the value of the dollar causes the price of gold to rise! The 2!0! dollar is the $orldGs reserve currenc& - the primar& medium for international transactions, the principal store of value for savings, the currenc& in $hich the $orth of commodities and e uities are calculated, and the currenc& primaril& held as reserves b& the $orldGs central Commodit& E'changes! Ho$ever, no$ that it has been stripped of its gold backing, the dollar is nothing more than a fanc& piece of paper!

7. GOLD AS A SAFE 0AVEN


8espite the fact that the 2nited 0tates is the $orlds onl& remaining superpo$er, there are man& problems festering around the $orld, an& one of $hich could e'plode $ith little $arning! )old has often been called the Hcrisis commodit&H because it tends to outperform other investments during periods of $orld tensions! The ver& same factors that cause other investments to suffer cause the price of gold to rise! A bad econom& can sink poorl& run Commodit& E'changes! (ad Commodit& E'changes can sink an

entire econom&! And, perhaps most importantl& to the rest of the $orld, the integration of the global econom& has made it possible for Commodit& E'changing and economic failures to destabili"e the $orld econom&!

8. GOLD - SUPPL4 AND DEMAND


*irst, demand is outpacing suppl& across the board! )old production is declining3 copper production is declining3 the production of lead and other metals is declining! 1t is ver& difficult to open ne$ mines $hen the $hole process takes about seven &ears on average, making it hard to address the suppl& issue uickl&! )old output in 0outh Africa, the $orldGs largest gold producer, fell to its lo$est level since 1>D1 this past &ear as the randGs gains prompted Harmon& )old #ining Co! and rivals to close mines despite 1; &ear highs in the gold price!

9. GOLD STORE OF VALUE


Economist 0tephen Harmston of (annock Consulting had this to sa& in a 1>>? report for the /orld )old Council, ,Ialthough the gold price ma& fluctuate, over the ver& long run gold has consistentl& reverted to its historic purchasing po$er parit& against other commodities and intermediate products! Historicall&, gold has proved to be an effective preserver of $ealth! 1t has also proved to be a safe haven in times of economic and social instabilit&! 1t sometimes takes a period of falling stock prices and market turmoil to focus the mind on the fact that it ma& be important to invest part of one+s portfolio in an asset that $ill, at least, hold its value!-

:. GOLD - PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFIER


The most effective $a& to diversif& &our portfolio and protect the $ealth created in the stock and financial markets is to invest in assets that are negativel& correlated $ith those markets! )old is the ideal diversifier for a stock portfolio, simpl& because it is among the most negativel& correlated assets to stocks! 1nvestment advisors recogni"e that diversification of investments can improve overall portfolio performance! The ke& to diversification is finding investments that are not closel& correlated to

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one another! )old and other tangible assets have historicall& had a ver& lo$ correlation to stocks and bonds! Although the price of gold can be volatile in the short-term, gold has maintained its value over the long-term, serving as a hedge against the erosion of the purchasing po$er of paper mone&

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GOLD CONTRACTS 1n 1ndia $e have 4 t&pes of gold contracts available in mc'! )old-1555 grams )oldmini- 155 grams )oldhni-1555 grams )oldguinea-? grams

)old -1555 grams 1t is a 1555 grams lot available in mc' and big investor can invest in this gold lots! )old hni-1555 grams 1t is a1555 grams lot available in mc' so, here $ho has registered as a H=1 in mc' he $ill take the gold H=1 contracts at a time !number of contracts like it called as bulk )oldmini-155 grams The medium investor can invest in goldmine and the lot si"e is 155 grams! )oldguinea-? grams 1t is especiall& for small investors the lot si"e is ? grams deals!

/ORLD GOLD MAR1ETS


.ondon as the great clearing house =e$ Jork as the home of futures trading Kurich as a ph&sical timetable 1stanbul, 8ubai, 0ingapore and Hong Long as door$a&s to important consuming regions! Tok&o $here T<C<# sets the mood of Mapan #umbai under 1ndia+s liberali"ed gold regime!

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68 0OURS ROUND T0E CLOC1 MAR1ET


Hong Long gold market Kurich )old #arket .ondon )old #arket =e$ Jork #arket

INDIA GOLD MAR1ET


)old is valued in 1ndia as a savings and investment vehicle and is the second preferred investment after Commodit& E'change deposits 1ndia is the $orld+s largest consumer of gold to %e$eller& as investment! 1n Mul& ,1>>@ the R(1 authori"ed the commercial Commodit& E'changes to import gold for sale or loan to %e$elers and e'porters! At present, 1D Commodit& E'changes are active in the import of gold! This reduced the disparit& bet$een international and domestic prices of gold from E@ percent during 1>?; to 1>>1 to ?!E percent in 7551! The gold hoarding tendenc& is $ell ingrained in 1ndian societ&! 8omestic consumption is dictated b& monsoon:harvest and marriage season! 1ndian %e$elr& off take is sensitive to price increase and even more so to volatilit&! 1n the cities gold is facing competition from the stock market and a $ide range of consumer goods! *acilities for refining, assa&ing, making them into standard bars in 1ndia, as compared to the rest of the $orld, are insignificant, both ualitativel& and uantitativel&!

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T0E PURIT4 OF GOLD ARTICLES IS GENERALL4 DESCRI+ED IN SI; /A4S. Percent F AParts of gold per *ineness AParts of gold per Larats Aparts of gold per 74B 155B 155F >1!;5F @E!55F E?!E5F 41!;5F 1555B >>> *ine >1; *ine @E5 *ine E?D *ine 41; *ine 74 Larats 77 Larats 1? Larats 14 Larats 15 Larats

FINE GOLD CONTENT


The minimum fineness is >>E parts per 1555 fine gold and gold said to be 155 fine is marked do$n to >>>!> fine! The follo$ing fine gold contents of other bar $eights are accepted b& the .ondon (ullion #arket Association A.(#AB! These bars are available at the spot .oco-.ondon price plus a premium $hich varies dependent on prevailing market conditions in different locations!

FUNDAMENTAL ANAL4SIS
At the most basic level, b& looking at the balance sheet, cash flo$ statement and income statement, a fundamental anal&st tries to determine a compan&+s value! 1n financial terms, an anal&st attempts to measure a compan&+s intrinsic value! 1n this approach, investment decisions are fairl& eas& to make 6if the price of a stock trades belo$ its intrinsic value, it+s a good investment! Although this is an oversimplification Afundamental anal&sis goes be&ond %ust the financial statementsB for the purpose of this tutorial, this simple tenet holds true!

TEC0NICAL ANAL4SIS

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Te$(n $al traders, on the other hand, believe there is no reason to anal&"e a compan&+s fundamental because these are all accounted for in the stock+s price! Technicians believe that all the information the& need about a stock can be found in its chart! /hile a fundamental anal&st starts $ith the financial statements!

T4PES OF MOVING AVERAGES


There are a number of different t&pes of moving averages that var& in the $a& the& are calculate, but ho$ each average is interpreted remains the same! The calculations onl& differ in regards to the $eighting that the& place on the price data, shifting from e ual $eighting of each price point to more $eight being placed on recent data !The si' most common t&pes of moving averages are

SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE <SMA=


This is the most common method used to calculate the moving average of price! 1t simpl& takes the sum of all of the past closing prices over the time period and divides the result b& the number of price used in the calculation! *or e'ample, in a 15-da& moving average, the last 15 closing are added together and then divided b& 15!

LINEAR /EIG0TED AVERAGE


Taking the sum of all the closing prices over a certain time period and multipl&ing them b& the position of the data point and then dividing b& the sum of the number of periods calculate the linear $eighted moving average! *or e'ample, in a five 6da& linear $eighted average, five multiplies toda&+s closing price, &esterda&s b& four and so on until the first da& in the period range is reached!

E;PONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE <EMA= *


This moving average calculation uses a smoothing factor to place a higher $eight on recent data point and is regarded as much more efficient than the linear $eighted average! Having an understanding of the calculation is not generall& re uired for most trades because most charting packages do the calculation for &ou! The most important thing to remember about the e'ponential moving average is that it is more responsive to ne$ information relative to the simple moving average! This responsiveness is one of the ke& factors of $h& this is the moving average of choice among man& technical traders!

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*or each months contract, descriptive statistics is calculated, this descriptive statistics sho$s the #ean, #edian, 0tandard 8eviation A0!8B, and 0ke$ness

! Standard Dev at on <volat l t.=* A statistical term that provides a good indication of volatilit&! 1t measures ho$ $idel& values Aclosing prices for instanceB are dispersed from the average! The larger the difference bet$een the closing prices and the average prices, the higher the standard deviation $ill be and the higher the volatilit&! The closer the closing prices are to the average price, the lo$er the standard deviation and the lo$er the volatilit&!

S%e'ness*
0ke$ness is a measure of s&mmetr&! A data set, or distribution, is s&mmetric if it has a similar shape to the left and right of a centre point! The ske$ness of a normal distribution is "ero! =egative values for the ske$ness indicate that observations are ske$ed left$ards, or that the left tail is heavier than the right tail! Positive ske$ness, on the other hand, indicates more up$ard spikes Aepisodes of rising pricesB than negative ones!

T0E POSSI+LE EVENTS T0AT COULD DRIVE DO/N T0E GOLD PRICE SEEM 0IG0L4 UNLI1EL4.

1ndia could slo$ its consumption The 2!0 stock market could boom, taking the attention a$a& from gold Peace could break out in the $orld There could be a huge gold discover& <il prices could collapse The dollar could rise

NEED AND IMPORTANCE OF T0E STUD4

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The era of liberali"ation has revolutioni"ed the commodit& market! 1n such a scenario it is necessar& to make an assessment of commodit& market as more and more investors are seeking commodit& market as of the important investment avenues! 1t is necessar& to make a detailed anal&sis!such an anal&sis $ill help an& person $ho is to invest in commodit& market!

SCOPE OF T0E STUD4

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The anal&sis is based on commodit& trading specificall& in gold futures market! The anal&sis is based on si' A;B month prices on dail& basis to sho$ the friend of the bullion market! The anal&sis is based on opening and closing price of gold in commodit& market! The stud& is conducted based on four t&pes of gold products i!e! )old )old H=1 )old guinea and )old mini onl&

O+>ECTIVES OF T0E STUD4

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To stud& the commodities trading and its clearing settlements To stud& the commodit& trading $ith reference to gold! To anal&"e the gold trend in commodit& market

LIMITATIONS

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A technical anal&sis is done using Dda& moving averages! The present stud& takes in to consideration of D month data of gold prices! This anal&sis $ill be holding good for a limited time period i!e! based on present scenario and stud& conducted, future movement of price ma& or ma& not be similar!

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C0APTER II REVIE/ OF LITERATURE

REVIE/ OF LITERATURE

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The trading in commodities $as started $ith the first transaction that took place bet$een t$o individuals! /e can relate this to the ancient method of trading i!e!, (ARTER 0J0TE#! This method faced the initial hiccups due to the problems like9 store of value, medium of e'change, deferred pa&ment, measure of $ealth etc! This led to the invention of #<=EJ! As the market started to e'pand, the problem of scarcit& piled up! The farmers : traders then felt the need to protect themselves against the fluctuations in the price for their produce! 1n the ancient times, the commodities traded $ere 6 the Agricultural Produce, $hich $as e'posed to higher risk i!e!, the natural calamities and had to face the price uncertaint&! 1t $as certain that during the scarcit&, the farmer reali"ed higher prices and during the oversuppl& he had to loose his profitabilit&! <n the other hand, the trader had to pa& higher price during the scarcit& and vice versa! 1t $as at this time that both %oined hands and entered into a contract for the trade i!e!, deliver& of the produce after the harvest, for a price decided earlier! (& this both had reduced the future uncertaint&! The damage to current account from net import of gold AN1;1 billionB and oil ANE1E billionB seems far less! (esides disrupting the current account, capital goods import has sent the nation+s gro$th into 1C2 A0ee OThe elephant e'perts didn+t see& Business Line& 0eptember E, 751DB! Ho$ is it then gold is demonised as the sole villainP (ecause modern economics brands gold a ,barbaric relic-!

Do!,le tro!,le
#odern economists and the 1ndian people seem to operate on t$o different paradigms $ith regard to gold! 1n the modern /est, gold is more a state asset than a private possession! )old constitutes %ust three per cent of famil& $ealth there, but a third in 1ndia! /estern states, socialist or capitalist, e'propriated all private gold during the last centur&! Even the liberal 20 outla$ed private gold in 1>D; and built official gold reserve of over 75,555 tonnes b& 1>E5! Modern e$onom $s vie$s gold as an uneconomic, $asteful, private investment! (ut traditionall&, in 1ndia, gold has been the preferred asset of the rural masses $ho hold @5 per cent of the nation+s stocks! 1ndian gold habits clearl& mock at modern economic theories! Mar%et Ora$le& a U1-,ased mar%et anal.s s and forecasting online publication, captures the relation bet$een 1ndia and gold thus9 1ndians o$n 75,555 tonnes of gold $orth N1 trillion C almost half of 1ndiaGs )8P! *or 1ndians, gold is not %ust mone& or asset3 it ensures the financial securit& and stabilit& of families! 1t has religious overtones! #ore than a commodit& or mone&, it is integral to the $arp and $eft of

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famil& life! 1nvestments in gold and %e$eller& are indistinguishable! Me$eller& is the $orking capital of families3 families collateralise it for commercial borro$ing! 0ome 1D per cent of 1ndian families, more from rural areas, borro$ against gold as collateral3 $hile rural 1ndia borro$s from the unorganised financial sector, urbanites access bank loans! The authors of #arket <racle seem to understand 1ndia+s famil&-gold ne'us better than 1ndian polic&makers! Jet, despite such a paradigmatic difference, economic la$s on gold based on the /estern e'perience are continuousl& being tried out in 1ndia! Result9 the establishment hates $hat the people love!

S #ns o) re t( n%
Ho$ever, there are indications of rethinking no$! Echoing the #arket <racle logic, the Reserve (ank of 1ndia /orking )roup to 0tud& the 1ssues Related to )old 1mports and )old .oans b& non-bank financial companies under 1. U. +. Rao AManuar& 751DB sa&s that ,demand for gold appears to be autonomous and a function of several influences and factors that ma& not be strictl& amenable to polic& changes- C an admission that gold demand ducks economic theories and policies! Again, sa&s the stud&, ,gold demand is price inelastic- C meaning gold bu&ing does not reduce if prices rise! 1t $arns that if the official suppl& of gold is restricted b& import curbs or e'tra ta'es, ,the bu&ers take recourse to unauthorised channels to bu& gold-! =o$, recall that 1ndia had banned gold imports for almost four decades till the earl& 1>>5s! (ut smugglers ensured an unfailing suppl&! Result9 the gold econom& functioned underground, generated black mone& and, in turn, $as funded b& black mone&! The )overnment+s dislike for gold did not make 1ndians love gold less! Leeping the the bitter past in mind, the R(1 $orking group sensibl& ackno$ledges that it is impractical to restrict the import of gold! 8oes it not mean then that the 2PA government+s present measures to make gold imports costl& $ould onl& make smuggling gainfulP 1f the 8a$ood gang can land deadl& e'plosives on =ariman Point $ith ease, $ill it find it tougher to bring in goldP

0ood' n%ed
(ut, are 1ndians fools to have invested in gold as the economists $ould have us believeP =o! Actuall&, gold seems to have fooled the economists! The R(1 $orking group stud& finds that gold has outperformed stocks and bank deposits in the last five &ears C more than three times over =ift&, si' times

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over bank deposits and 15-&ear government bonds! <nl& gold, no other asset, has so consistentl& beaten inflation! The average inflation during 7551-57 to 755E-5; $as 4!@ per cent but gold &ielded >!7 per cent C almost double! The average inflation for 755;-@ to 7515-11 $as ;!@ per cent but the &ield on gold $as 7D!@ per cent C three times plus! Average inflation for 7517 is > per cent but gold returned DD!E per cent C almost four times! Traditional 1ndia intuitivel& seems to understand the value of gold! 0a&s 4. V. Redd., a globall& celebrated central banker9 ,The real purchaser of gold is t&picall& a peasant!Close to @5 per cent of gold %e$eller& is sold in rural areas and most gold sales are b& $a& of %e$eller&! To uote, >e))re. A. Fran%s ,Holding gold has, in fact, often in histor& served, from *rance to 1ndia, as the onl& $a& the peasant can protect himself against inflation and the vicissitudes of politics-! *inall&, $hile trillion dollar gold is the real asset of the 1ndian masses, the trillion dollar stock market capitalisation is the phone& $ealth of the 1ndian classes, dependent on the QE announcements of +en +ernan%e. Commodities *utures+ trading in 1ndia has a long histor&! The first commodit& futures market appeared in 1?@E! (ut the ne$ standardi"ed form of trading in the 1ndian capital market is an attractive package for all the people $ho earn mone& through speculation b& trading into *2T2RE0! 1t is a $ellkno$n fact and should be remembered that the trading in commodities through futures+ e'changes is merel&, ,old $ine in a ne$ bottle-!

/(at s ?Commod t.@2


An& product that can be used for commerce or an article of commerce $hich is traded on an authori"ed commodit& e'change is kno$n as commodit&! The article should be movable of value, something $hich is bought or sold and $hich is produced or used as the sub%ect or barter or sale! 1n short commodit& includes all kinds of goods! 1ndian *or$ard Contracts ARegulationB Act A*CRAB, 1>E7 defines ,goods- as ,ever& kind of movable propert& other than actionable claims, mone& and securities-! ?The term refers to a $hole range of natural resources that are used to create the goods that people bu& and the food the& eat!@ 0a&s >erem. +a%er, 20(Gs Kurich-based head of Commodit& ResearchG! A commodit& ma& be defined as an article, a product or material that is bought and sold! 1t can be classified as ever& kind of movable propert&, e'cept Actionable Claims, #one& R 0ecurities! Commodities

24

actuall& offer immense potential to become a separate asset class for market-savv& investors, arbitrageurs and speculators! Retail investors, $ho claim to understand the e uit& markets, ma& find commodities an unfathomable market! (ut commodities are eas& to understand as far as fundamentals of demand and suppl& are concerned! Retail investors should understand the, risks and advantages of trading in commodities futures before taking a leap! Historicall&, pricing in commodities futures has been less volatile compared $ith e uit& and bonds, thus providing an efficient portfolio diversification option!

/(at s a $ommod t. Mar%et2


Commodit& market is a place $here trading in commodities takes place! #arkets $here ra$ or primar& products are e'changed! These ra$ commodities are traded on r egulated commodities exchanges, in $hich the& are bought and sold in standardi"ed Contracts! 1t is similar to an E uit& market, but instead of bu&ing or selling shares one bu&s or sells commodities! Commodit& market is an important constituent of the financial markets of an& countr&! 1t is the market $here a $ide range of products, vi"!, precious metals, base metals, crude oil, energ& and soft commodities like palm oil, coffee etc! are traded! 1t is important to develop a vibrant, active and li uid commodit& market! This $ould help investors hedge their commodit& risk, take speculative positions in commodities and e'ploit arbitrage opportunities in the market! 1n fact, the si"e of the commodities markets in 1ndia is also uite significant! <f the countr&Gs )8P of Rs 1D, 75,@D5 crores ARs 1D,75@!D billionB, commodities related Aand dependentB industries constitute about E? per cent! Currentl&, the various commodities across the countr& clock an annual turnover of Rs 1, 45,555 crores ARs 1,455 billionB! /ith the introduction of futures trading, the si"e of the commodities market gro$s man& folds here on! 1n current situation, all goods and products of a#r $!lt!ral Aincluding plantationB, m neral and )oss l origin are allo$ed for commodit& trading recogni"ed under the *CRA! The national commodit& e'changes, recogni"ed b& the Central )overnment, permits commodities $hich include precious Agold and silverB and non-ferrous metals, cereals and pulses, ginned and un-ginned cotton, oilseeds, oils and oilcakes, ra$ %ute and %ute goods, sugar and guar, potatoes and onions, coffee and tea, rubber and spices! Etc!

25

0 stor. o) Evol!t on o) $ommod t. mar%ets


Historicall&, dating from ancient 0umerian use of sheep or goats, or other peoples using pigs, rare seashells, or other items as commodit& mone&, people have sought $a&s to standardi"e and trade contracts in the deliver& of such items, to render trade itself more smooth and predictable! 0omeone else+s lo$er offer! That keeps the market as efficient as possible, and keeps the traders on their toes to make sure no one gets the purchase or sale before the& do!

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITIES E;C0ANGES


Chicago board of trade AC(<TB 6 1?4? .ondon metal e'change A.#EB 6 1?@@

.ondon international financial futures e'change A.1**EB 6 1>@> Tok&o commodit& e'change AT<C<#B 6 1>?4 0hanghai metal e'change A0H#EB 8ahlia commodit& e'change A8CEB 6 1>>D

PARTICIPANTS OF COMMODIT4 MAR1ET 0ed#ers


Hedging involves bu&ing or selling of a standardi"ed futures contract against the corresponding sale or purchase respectivel& of the e uivalent ph&sical commodit&! The benefits of hedging flo$ from the relationship bet$een the prices of contracts Aeither read& or for$ardB for ph&sical deliver& and those of futures contracts! 0o long as these t$o sets of prices move in close unison and displa& a parallel Aor closel& parallelB relationship, losses in the ph&sical market are offset, either full& or substantiall&, b& the gains in the futures market! Hedging thus performs the economic function of helping to reduce significantl&, if not eliminate altogether, the losses emanating from the price risks in commodities! Hedgers are often businesses, or individuals, $ho at one point or another deal in the underl&ing cash commodit&! Take an e'ample9 A Hedger pa& more to the farmer or dealer of a produce if its prices go up!

26

*or protection against higher prices of the produce, he hedges the risk e'posure b& bu&ing enough future contracts of the produce to cover the amount of produce he e'pects to bu&! 0ince cash and futures prices do tend to move in tandem, the futures position $ill profit if the price of the produce raises enough to offset cash loss on the produce!

S"e$!lators
0peculators are some $hat like a middle man! The& are never interested in actual o$ing the commodit&! The& $ill %ust bu& from one end and sell it to the other in anticipation of future price movements! The& actuall& bet on the future movement in the price of an asset! The& are the second ma%or group of futures pla&ers! These participants include independent floor traders and investors! The& handle trades for their personal clients or brokerage firms! (u&ing a futures contract in anticipation of price increases is kno$n as Ogoing long+! 0elling a futures contract in anticipation of a price decrease is kno$n as Ogoing short+! 0peculative participation in futures trading has increased $ith the availabilit& of alternative methods of participation!

S"e$!lators (ave $erta n advanta#es over ot(er nvestments t(e. are as )ollo's*
1f the trader+s %udgment is good, he can make more mone& in the futures market faster because prices tend, on average, to change more uickl& than real estate or stock prices! *utures are highl& leveraged investments! The trader puts up a small fraction of the value of the underl&ing contract as margin, &et he can ride on the full value of the contract as it moves up and do$n!

Ar, trators
According to dictionar& definition, a person $ho has been officiall& chosen to make a decision bet$een t$o people or groups $ho do not agree is kno$n as Arbitrator! 1n commodit& market Arbitrators are the people $ho take the advantage of a discrepanc& bet$een prices in t$o different markets! 1f he finds future prices of a commodit& edging out $ith the cash price, he $ill take offsetting positions in both the markets to lock in a profit! #oreover the commodit& futures investor is not charged interest on the difference bet$een margin and the full contract value!

DERIVATIVES
Another ma%or leap in the development of commodities markets is the gro$th in commodities derivative segment! 8erivatives trading has a long histor&! The first recorded incident of commodities trade $as

27

traced back to the times of ancient )reece! 1n the &ear 1;?? 8e la Sega reported the trading in Gtime bargainsG $hich $ere the then commonl& used terms for options and futures!

Mean n# o) Der vat ves*


A derivative is a product $hose value is derived from the value of one or more underl&ing variables or assets in a contractual manner! The underl&ing asset can be e uit&, fore', commodit& or an& other asset!

T4PES OF DERIVATIVE CONTRACTS


The follo$ing are the various t&pes of derivatives! The& are

FOR/ARD CONTRACT
A for$ard contract is a customi"ed contract bet$een t$o entities, $here settlement takes place on a specific date in the future at toda&+s pre-agreed price!

FUTURE CONTRACT
A futures contract is an agreement bet$een t$o parties to bu& or sell an asset in a certain time at a certain price3 the& are standardi"ed and traded on e'change!

OPTIONS
<ptions are of t$o t&pes-call option and put option! Calls give the bu&er the right but not the obligation to bu& a given uantit& of the underl&ing asset, at a given price on or before a given future date! Puts give the bu&er the right, but not the obligation to sell a given uantit& of the underl&ing asset at a given price on or before a given date!

/ARRANTS
<ptions generall& have lives of up to one &ear3 the ma%orit& of options traded on options e'changes having a ma'imum maturit& of nine months! .onger-dated options are called $arrants and are generall& traded over-the counter!

28

LEAPS
The acron&m .EAP0 means long-term E uit& Anticipation securities! These are options having a maturit& of up to 0i' &ears!

+AS1ETS
(asket options are options on portfolios of underl&ing assets! The underl&ing asset is usuall& a moving average of a basket of assets! E uit& inde' options are a form of basket options!

S/APS
0$aps are private agreements bet$een t$o parties to e'change cash flo$s in the future according to a prearranged formula! The& can be regarded as portfolios of for$ard contracts! The t$o commonl& used 0$aps are 1nterest rate and currenc& s$aps!

INTEREST RATE
These entail s$apping onl& the related cash flo$s bet$een the parties in the same currenc&!

C!rren$. S'a"s
These entail s$apping both principal and interest bet$een the parties, $ith the cash flo$s in on direction being in a different currenc& than those in the opposite direction!

S/APTION
0$aptions are options to bu& or sell a s$ap that $ill become operative at the e'pir& of the options!Thus a s$aption is an option on a for$ard s$ap

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COMMODIT4 E;C0ANGES REGISTERED IN INDIA

Commodit& E'change (hatinda <m R <il E'change .td!,

Products Traded )ur 0unflo$er <il Cotton A 0eed and <ilB 0afflo$er A 0eed , <il and <il CakeB

The (omba& commodit& E'change .td

)roundnut A =ut and <ilB Castor <il, Castor seed 0esamum A <il and <ilcakeB Rice bran, rice bran oil and oil cake Crude palm oil

The Ra%kot 0eeds <il R (ullion #erchants Association )roundnut <il, Castro 0eed .td! The Lanpur Commodit& E'change .td!, Te #eeerut Agro commodities E'change Co!, .td! The 0pices and <ilseeds e'change .td!, 0angli Ahmedabad Commodities E'change .td Si%a& (eopar Chamber .td!, #u"affarnagr 1ndia Pepper R 0pice Trade Association, Lochi Ra%adhani <ils and <il seeds E'change .td!,8elhi Rapeseed : #ustard seed oil and cake! )ur Turmeric Cottonseed, castor seed )ur Pepper )ur, Rapeseed : #ustard 0eed 0ugar )rade 6 # Rapeseed : #ustard 0eed : <il : Cake 0o&abean : #eal : <il : Crude Palm <il

30

=ational (oard of Trade, 1ndore

The Chamber of Commerce, Hapur The East 1ndia Cotton Association, #umbai The central 1ndia Commercial E'change .td )$aliar The east 1ndia Mute R Hessain E'change .td!, Lolkata *irst Commodit& E'change of 1ndia .td!, Lochi

)ur, Rapeseed : #ustard seed Cotton )ur Hessain, 0acking Copra, Coconut <il R Copra Cake

0o' to nvest n a Commod t. Mar%et2 / t( '(om nvestor $an transa$t a ,!s ness2

31

An investor can transact a business $ith the approved clearing member of previousl& mentioned Commodit& E'changes! The investor can ask for the details from the Commodit& E'changes about the list of approved members!

/(at s Ident t. Proo)2


/hen investor approaches Clearing #ember, the member $ill ask for identit& proof! *or $hich Tero' cop& of an& one of the follo$ing can be given aB PA= card =umber bB 8riving .icense cB Sote 18 dB Passport

/(at statements s(o!ld ,e # ven )or Commod t. EA$(an#e Proo)2


The front page of Commodit& E'change Pass (ook and a canceled che ue of a concerned Commodit& E'change! <ther$ise the Commodit& E'change 0tatement containing details can be given!

/(at are t(e "art $!lars to ,e # ven )or address "roo)2


1n order to ascertain the address of investor, the clearing member $ill insist on Tero' cop& of Ration card or the Pass (ook: Commodit& E'change 0tatement $here the address of investor is given!

/(at are t(e ot(er )orms to ,e s #ned ,. t(e nvestor2


The clearing member $ill ask the client to sign aB Lno$ &our client form bB Risk 8iscloser 8ocument The above things are onl& procedure in character and the risk involved and onl& after understanding the business, he $ants to transact business!

/(at as"e$ts s(o!ld ,e $ons dered '( le sele$t n# a $ommod t. ,ro%er2

32

/hile selecting a commodit& broker investor should ideall& keep certain aspects in mind to ensure that the& are not being missed in an& $hich $a&! These factors include =et $orth of the broker of brokerage firm! The clientele! The number of franchises:branches! The market credibilit&! The references! The kind of service provided- back office functioning being most important! Credit facilit&!

+ro%er*The (roker is essentiall& a person of firm that liaisons bet$een individual traders and the commodit& e'change! 1n other $ords the Commodit& (roker is the member of Commodit& E'change, having direct connection $ith the e'change to carr& out all trades legall&! He is also kno$n as the authori"ed dealer!

0o' to ,e$ome a Commod t. TraderB+ro%er o) Commod t. EA$(an#e2


To become a commodit& trader one needs to complete certain legal and binding obligations! There is routine process follo$ed, $hich is stated b& a unit of )overnment that la&s do$n the la$s and acts $ith regards to commodit& trading! A broker of Commodities is also re uired to meet certain obligations to gain such a membership in e'change! To become a member of Commodit& E'change the broker of brokerage firm should have net $orth amounting to Rs! E5 .akhs! This sum has been determined b& #ulti Commodit& E'change!

0o' to ,e$ome a Mem,er o) Commod t. EA$(an#e2


To become member of Commodit& E'change the person should compl& $ith the follo$ing Eligibilit& Criteria!

33

1! He should be Citi"en of 1ndia! 7! He should have completed 71 &ears of his age! D! He should be )raduate or having e uivalent ualification! 4! He should not be Commodit& E'changerupt! E! He has not been debarred from trading in Commodities b& statutor&:regulator& authorit&, The commodities 8epositor& account ma& be credited in the follo$ing situations9 1! 7! D! 8emat Revalidation Actual purchase from market!

Ent t es nvolved n t(e DEMAT "ro$ess


Iss!er* The issuer is an entit&, $hich floats the ph&sical paper document! 1t $ould be a compan& in case of the share certificate or $arehouse in case of $arehouse receipt! T(e Re# strar and Trans)er A#ents* 1t acts on behalf of the issuer as an interface bet$een the issuer and the depositor& for converting the ph&sical $arehouse receipt in the demat form! T(e De"os tor.* The 8epositor& maintains the records of the beneficial o$ner in its books! Presentl& there are t$o depositories in 1ndia i!e! =ational 0ecurities 8epositor& .imited A=08.B and Central 8epositor& 0ervices .imited AC80.B

34

T."es o) Demat A$$o!nt


+ene) $ ar. O'ner A$$o!nt is used to hold and transact in commodit& balances! The depositor is re uired to uote this account number at the time of depositing commodit& in the $arehouse! The commodit& balances are credited in this t&pe of account! All the investors trading in the commodit& markets are re uired to separatel& open beneficiar& o$ner account for commodit&! The e'isting demat account for securities cannot be used for the purpose of holding and transacting in the commodit&! 2nlike the securities demat account, the investors need to open the commodit& demat account $ith both the depositories i!e! =08. and C80.! The basic reason behind opening the account in both the depositories is that the 8epositories have not &et started 1nter-8epositor& transfer in case of commodities! Clear n# Mem,er Pool A$$o!nt is used for the purpose of settlement of deliver& obligation! The account is used b& the member for giving or receiving deliver& of commodit& to or from the Clearing House of the E'change! 1n short the pa&-in and pa&-out of the e'change is settled through this account! All the members of the e'change are re uired to open the C# Pool Account $ith both the depositories! This cannot be used for holding the commodit&!

Con$e"t o) Internat onal Commod t. Ident ) $at on N!m,er <ICIN=


1C1= refers to 1nternational Commodit& 1dentification =umber! Commodities that have been demateriali"ed are identified b& its uni ue code Ai!e! 1C1=B allotted b& depositor&! 1C1= is generated on the uni ueness of the follo$ing 8 parameters9 Commodit&! /arehouse .ocation! )rade : *ineness of the commodit&! Salidit& date of the commodit&! guarantees demanded b& the participants!

35

RESEARC0 MET0ODOLOG4
Research in common parlance refers to a search for kno$ledge! <nce can also define research as a 0cientific and s&stematic search for pertinent information on a specific topic! 1n fact, research is an art of scientific investigation! Research is an academic activit& and as such the term should be used in a technical sense! According to C.1**<R8 /<<8J research comprises defining and redefining problems, formulating h&pothesis or suggested solutions3 collecting, organi"ing and evaluating data3 making deductions and reaching conclusions3 and at last carefull& testing the conclusions to determine $hether the& fit the formulating h&pothesis! Collecting the data9 1n dealing $ith an& real life problem it is often found that data at hand are inade uate, and hence, it becomes necessar& to collect data that are appropriate! There are several $a&s of collecting the appropriate data $hich differ considerabl& in conte't of mone& costs, time and other resources at the disposal of the researcher!

RESEARC0 DESIGN
This research deals $ith the descriptive research! The ma%or purpose of descriptive research is to find out state affairs, as it e'ists at present! 8escriptive research studies are concerned $ith describing the characteristics of a particular individual or group!

36

SOURCES OF DATA
The data is collected from secondar& sources mainl& from financial $ebsites Pr mar. so!r$e o) data* - no primaril& source of data is used! Se$ondar. so!r$e o) data* - The secondar& data is collected from H&derabad inter connected stock e'change and various internet sources 0econdar& data is alread& collected data $hich ma& be a publications, compan& refunds, $ebsites, books, %ournals, annual reports etcI,

STATISTICAL TOOLS
The most common method used to calculate the moving average of price! 1t simpl& takes the sum of all of the past closing prices over the time period and divides the result b& the number of price used in the calculation! *or e'ample, in a 15-da& moving average, the last 15 closing are added together and then divided b& 15

37

C0APTER 7 COMPAN4 PROFILE

38

COMPAN4 PROFILE

Ape' Technolog& $as started in #arch 7557 as a corporate financial house! 1t is a comprehensive investment Commodit& E'change that comes $ith &ears of e'pertise in offering solutions and advisor& services across the corporate $orld! Ape' Technolog&+s investment management group is responsible for managing assets on a discretionar& basis across retail, high net $orth and corporate clients! Ape' Technolog& Capital Advisors! 1s registered as a portfolio manager $ith the securities and e'change board of 1ndia! <n this platform Ape' Technolog& has created distinct investment strategies to suit a $ide variet& of client goals and risk preferences that are able to constitute core elements of most asset allocation strategies! These strategies encompass most of the li uid asset classes including e uities, mutual funds fi'ed income and precious metals among others! Ape' Technolog& is in the business of managing the assets of individuals and corporate! The collective e'perience at doing so dates back several decades and the team is rated to be amongst the best $ealth managers in 1ndia toda&! This bares testimon& in the fact that the organi"ation+s ever gro$ing list of corporate clients includes senior and middle management from organi"ations that include 1ntel, 1(#, HP, Coke, Pepsi, /hirlpool Corporation, Hindustan levers, D#, )illette and Cisco! At Ape' Technolog&, there is the reali"ation that ever& one of its clients has a distinct financial goal broken do$n into uni ue needs, a distinct investment histor&, a defined propensit& to save and finall& a var&ing appetite at being e'posed to investment risks! Ape' Technolog&+s approach at managing the $ealth of its clients is built on the foundation that ever& one of its financial advisors is a custodian of its client+s $ealth! NATURE OF +USINESS Ape' Technolog& neither Osells+ financial products nor does it la& pre-conditions to investing! 1ts fee based advisor& services ensures that it adopts a consultative approach to managing $ealth! Advice therefore, is independent and client centric! Ape' Technolog&+s service offering is perhaps the $idest in the industr&! The scope of its services encompasses the entire spectrum of financial needs of an individual right!

39

A"eA Te$(nolo#.Cs serv $es are ,roadl. $lass ) ed nto*


Capital #arkets advisor& service and Corporate *inance 0ervices including e uit& and debt placement, debt restructuring and #ergers R Ac uisitions! 1nvestment Advisor& 0ervices covering retail and corporate investment and $ealth management services, Portfolio #anagement 0ervices, 0econdar& market e'ecution services and 1nsurance Advisor& 0ervices! Asset #anagement that involves building an 1=R 1 (illion restructuring fund!

V s on*
To make Ape' Technolog& Capital Pvt .td the dominant pension+s pla&er built on trust b& $orld class people and services! This $e hope to achieve b&9 2nderstanding the need of the customers R offering them superior products R services! .everaging the technolog& to service customers uickl&, efficientl& R convenientl&! 8eveloping R implanting superior risk management R investment strategies! Providing an enabling environment to faster gro$th R learning for our emplo&ees! (uilding transparencies in all dealings! The success of the compan& $ill be founded in its unflinching commitment to five core valueintegrit&, customer first, boundar& less, o$nership R passion!

40

M ss on*
Ape' Technolog& Capital Advisors launched $ith the mission ,to be the prominent destination for personali"ed financial solutions helping individuals creating $ealth-!

O,De$t ves o) t(e or#an Eat on*


The abilit& to leverage the resources of strategic partners R other providers of e'pert services! Carefull& managing business gro$th to avoid disruption to e'isting client+s relationship R ensure that the infrastructure is in place to support ne$ relationships R service e'pectations! 8eveloping broad R deep relationships $ith all clients, managing as much of financial life as possible R Taking advantage of product R service developments to bring the ver& best to the clients!

SERVICES STRATEGIES Cl ent Re)erral Pro#rams


Client referrals are the most reliable and most cost-effective source of ne$ clients! /e help firms ma'imi"e their success b& creating process and tools that make generating client a referrals a natural and s&stematic part of the practice!

Centres o) In)l!en$e Re)errals Pro#rams


8eveloping relationships $ith other professional advisors can generate referrals for ne$ clients! /e help firms create strategies to meet these professionals, nature the relationships and develop tools to encourage referrals!

Cl ent Retent on Pro#rams

41

#aintaining and leveraging e'isting client relationships is far less e'pensive and more productive than tr&ing to ac uire ne$ clients! /e help organi"ations develop effective client communication programs that build stronger client relationships, encourage referrals, and produce incremental business!

Ne' Cl ent A$3! s t on Pro#rams


A diverse mi' of campaigns including events, public relations, advertising and direct marketing can be an effective means of ac uiring ne$ clients! /e help firms create and implement integrated marketing strategies to reach their goals!

+ran$(es*
Ape' Technolog& Capital Pvt! .td currentl& has over 1> branches and distributions are present in over D@ locations across 1ndia! (angalore, 8elhi, #umbai branches are for corporate financing and Commodit& E'change and rest of the branches are for Commodit& E'change onl&! /e manage around 4555 clients $ith the total A2# AAssets under #anagementB of over Ebn! /e have plans to open another E locations in the ne't &ear or so! <ur largest practice is in (angalore $ith about 7E relationship managers in the $ealth management and 7 in the H=1 team! <verall, across the compan&, $e have 755 emplo&ees $ho directl& involved $ith $ealth management! Ape' Technolog& probabl& have the best client to relationship, this ratio varies bet$een 75 and E5! <ur client retention rate is close to >5F, $hich is prett& remarkable, given the fact that there are so man& pla&ers in the market!

APE; TEC0NOLOG4 NET/OR1


Ape' Technolog& presence in 1> locations 755U professionals 8istribution presence in D@ locations 1nvestment management centrali"ed in (angalore

Ape' Technolog& $as the envisioned to be a full service 1nvestment Commodit& E'change $ith over 1=R ;E55 crores of transactions that $e have been involved $ith, 1=R E55 crores of A2# that Ape'

42

Technolog& manage, the D@ locations that its present in and the 4555 clients that it have $hich are considered to be amongst the leading investment Commodit& E'changes in the countr&!

SCOPE OF APE; TEC0NOLOG4* INVESTMENT COMMODIT4 E;C0ANGEING


<ur investment Commodit& E'change e'pertise ranges across domestic and cross border mergers R ac uisitions, capital raising, debt restructuring and 1nitial Public <fferings! Ape' Technolog&Gs global, crossindustr& e'pertise and our strong associations $ith financial institutions, venture capitalists and industr& leaders, positions us to offer comprehensive advisor& e'pertise to 1ndian corporations seeking to gro$ in domestic and international markets!

43

O+>ECTIVES OF APE; TEC0NOLOG4

Create a single integrated national level solution $ith access to multiple markets for providing high costeffective service to millions of investors across the countr&!

Create a li uid and vibrant national level market for all listed companies in general and small capital companies in particular!

<ptimall& utili"e the e'isting infrastructure and other resources of participating 0tock E'changes, $hich are under-utili"ed no$!

Provide a level pla&ing field to small Traders and 8ealers b& offering an opportunit& to participate in a national markets having investment-oriented business!

Provide clearing and settlement facilities to the Traders and 8ealers across the Countr& at their doorstep in a decentrali"ed mode!

44

C0APTER 8 DATA ANAL4SIS AND INTERPRETATIONS

45

TA+LE-8.5 Gold-5FFF #rams T(e ,elo' ta,le s(o's 7 MONT0S mov n# avera#es.
D #<=TH0 ASERA)E 5 5 1;?15 1;?;5 1;>5D 1;>57!;;;;@ 1;>5E!;;;;@ 1;>1@ 1;>?E 1;>>7!;;;;@ 1;>E>!;;;;@ 1;>14!;;;;@ 1;>54!;;;;@ 1;>77!;;;;@ 1;>51 1;>D7!;;;;@ #<S1=)

8ate 1-Man-17 7-Man-17 4-Man-17 E-Man-17 ;-Man-17 @-Man-17 ?-Man-17 >-Man-17 11-Man-17 17-Man-17 1D-Man-17 14-Man-17 1E-Man-17 1;-Man-17 1?-Man-17 1>-Man-17

CloseARsB 1;@4@ 1;@>4 1;??> 1;?>@ 1;>7D 1;??? 1;>5; 1;>E@ 1@5>7 1;>7> 1;?E? 1;>E@ 1;?>> 1;>17 1;?>7 1;>>4

46

75-Man-17 71-Man-17 77-Man-17 7D-Man-17 7E-Man-17 7@-Man-17 7?-Man17 7>-Man-17 D5-Man-17 1-*eb-17 7-*eb-17 D-*eb-17 4-*eb-17 E-*eb-17 ;-*eb-17 ?-*eb-17 >-*eb-17 15-*eb-17 11-*eb-17

1;@E; 1;E>? 1;E1> 1;EE1 1;E1? 1;E5D

1;??5!;;;;@ 1;@?7!;;;;@ 1;;74!DDDDD 1;EE; 1;E7>!DDDDD 1;E74

1;DED 1;D1@ 1;D1@ 1;;75 1;@E4 1;;4@ 1;1E7 1;15; 1;7?; 1;7@; 1;D1> 1;7@@ 1;4@4

1;4E? 1;D>1 1;D7> 1;41? 1;E;D!;;;;@ 1;;@D!;;;;@ 1;E1@!;;;;@ 1;D51!;;;;@ 1;1?1!DDDDD 1;777!;;;;@ 1;7>D!;;;;@ 1;7>5!;;;;@ 1;DE;!;;;;@

47

17-*eb-17 1D-*eb-17 1E-*eb-17 1;-*eb-17 1@-*eb-17 1?-*eb-17 1>-*eb-17 75-*eb-17 77-*eb-17 7D-*eb-17 74-*eb-17 7E-*eb-17 7;-*eb-17 7@-*eb-17 1-#ar-17 7-#ar-17 D-#ar-17 4-#ar-17 E-#ar-17 ;-#ar-17

1;4E7 1;E5D 1;;5E 1;@D1 1;@E; 1;@@E 1;?E@ 1;?1; 1;;>7 1;E>1 1;4?? 1;;>4 1;@@7 1;@?> 1;@>; 1@575 1@57? 1;>E; 1;>51 1;>5@

1;451 1;4@;!DDDDD 1;E75 1;;1D 1;;>@!DDDDD 1;@E4 1;@>; 1;?1; 1;@??!DDDDD 1;;>>!;;;;@ 1;E>5!DDDDD 1;E>1 1;;E1!DDDDD 1;@E1!;;;;@ 1;@?E!;;;;@ 1;?;?!DDDDD 1;>4? 1@551!DDDDD 1;>;1!;;;;@ 1;>71!DDDDD

48

?-#ar-17 >-#ar-17 15-#ar-17 11-#ar-17 17-#ar-17 1D-#ar-17 1E-#ar-17 1;-#ar-17 1@-#ar-17 1?-#ar-17 1>-#ar-17 75-#ar-17 77-#ar-17 7D-#ar-17 74-#ar-17 7E-#ar-17 7;-#ar-17 7@-#ar-17 7>-#ar-17 D5-#ar-17

1;@D> 1;@7@ 1;4?4 1;E7; 1;44@ 1;4E7 1;ED? 1;@1? 1;;?@ 1;@;? 1;E5> 1;E5; 1;41; 1;44E 1;7>E 1;7;1 1;D4> 1;D>5 1;D1> 1;7>1

1;?4> 1;@>1 1;;E5 1;E@> 1;4?E!;;;;@ 1;4@E 1;4@> 1;E;>!DDDDD 1;;4@!;;;;@ 1;@74!DDDDD 1;;E4!;;;;@ 1;E>4!DDDDD 1;4@@ 1;4EE!;;;;@ 1;D?E!DDDDD 1;DDD!;;;;@ 1;D51!;;;;@ 1;DDD!DDDDD 1;DE7!;;;;@ 1;DDD!DDDDD

49

D1-#ar-17 1-Apr-17 D-Apr-17 E-Apr-17

1;7>E 1;D>1 1;474 1;D@@

1;D51!;;;;@ 1;D7E!;;;;@ 1;D@5 1;D>@!DDDDD

INTERPRETATION
As above data $e are taken )<.8 Price moving from Manuar& 1 st to April Eth, on 1st Manuar& it is closed on 1;@4@ in bet$een the period on Man 11 th it is closed to 1@5>7, latterl& on 7> th Man it came do$n to 1;D1@, on 7nd *eb! it is increased to 1;@E4, on Eth *eb! again it is come do$n to 1;15;, end of the contract on Eth April it is closed to 1;D@@! 1f &ou see total data the gold is highl& fluctuated because the gold leads the econom&!

50

C0ART-8.5

GOLD 7 MONT0S MOVING AVERAGE


The belo$ graph sho$s dail& prices like closing prices of the gold in the form of the technical tool indicator simple moving averages!

40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0


01 -0 115 201 -0 2 129 201 -0 1- 2 12 201 -0 2- 2 26 201 -0 2- 2 '3 201 /1 2/ 2 26 201 -0 3- 2 20 12

3 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGES C lose Pr !e

51

TA+LE-8.6 GOLDGUINEA G GRAMS T(e ,elo' ta,le s(o's 7 MONT0S mov n# avera#es.

8ate 1-*eb-17 7-*eb-17 D-*eb-17 4-*eb-17 E-*eb-17 ;-*eb-17 ?-*eb-17 >-*eb-17 15-*eb-17 11-*eb-17 17-*eb-17 1D-*eb-17 1E-*eb-17 1;-*eb-17 1@-*eb-17 1?-*eb-17

CloseARsB 1D1?D 1DD74 1D7E? 17?>; 17?4; 17>>? 17>@; 17>>1 17>;; 1D5?1 1D5@> 1D11? 1D14; 1D7>? 1D7>? 1D7>;

D #<=TH0 moving average 5 5 1D7EE 1D1E>!DDDDD 1D555 17>1D!DDDDD 17>45 17>??!DDDDD 17>@@!;;;;@ 1D517!;;;;@ 1D547 1D5>7!;;;;@ 1D114!DDDDD 1D1?@!DDDDD 1D74@!DDDDD 1D7>@!DDDDD

52

1>-*eb-17 75-*eb-17 77-*eb-17 7D-*eb-17 74-*eb-17 7E-*eb-17 7;-*eb-17 7@-*eb-17 1-#ar-17 7-#ar-17 D-#ar-17 4-#ar-17 E-#ar-17 ;-#ar-17 ?-#ar-17 >-#ar-17 15-#ar-17 11-#ar-17 17-#ar-17 1D-#ar-17

1DD;4 1DDE4 1D7?; 1D715 1D111 1D774 1D7?? 1D7>4 1D7>> 1D4D; 1D4D> 1D454 1DD@@ 1DD?D 1D7;? 1D7E1 1D17? 1D14; 1D5>@ 1D5>1

1DD1>!DDDDD 1DDD? 1DDD4!;;;;@ 1D7?D!DDDDD 1D757!DDDDD 1D1?1!;;;;@ 1D75@!;;;;@ 1D7;?!;;;;@ 1D7>D!;;;;@ 1DD4D 1DD>1!DDDDD 1D47;!DDDDD 1D45;!;;;;@ 1DD?? 1DD47!;;;;@ 1DD55!;;;;@ 1D71E!;;;;@ 1D1@E 1D17D!;;;;@ 1D111!DDDDD

53

1E-#ar-17 1;-#ar-17 1@-#ar-17 1?-#ar-17 1>-#ar-17 75-#ar-17 77-#ar-17 7D-#ar-17 74-#ar-17 7E-#ar-17 7;-#ar-17 7@-#ar-17 7>-#ar-17 D5-#ar-17 D1-#ar-17 1-Apr-17 D-Apr-17 E-Apr-17

1D1D1 1D7D5 1D77D 1D7;5 1D17E 1D115 1D547 1D5E; 17>E; 17>74 17>@E 17>?; 17>E1 17>D1 17>E7 1D55E 1D51> 17>>7

1D15;!DDDDD 1D1E5!;;;;@ 1D1>4!;;;;@ 1D7D@!;;;;@ 1D757!;;;;@ 1D1;E 1D5>7!DDDDD 1D5;>!DDDDD 1D51? 17>@?!;;;;@ 17>E1!;;;;@ 17>;1!;;;;@ 17>@5!;;;;@ 17>E; 17>44!;;;;@ 17>;7!;;;;@ 17>>7 1D55E!DDDDD

54

INTERPRETATION

As above data $e are taken )<.8 )21=EA Price moving from *ebruar& 1 st to April Eth, on 1st *ebruar& it is closed on 1D1?D in bet$een the period on *eb! 1> th it is closed to 1DD;4 , latterl& on 7;th *eb! it came do$n to 1D7??, on Drd march it is increased to 1D4D> , on D5 th march again it is come do$n to 17>D1 , end of the contract on Eth April it is closed to 17>>7!

1f &ou see total data the gold is highl& fluctuated because the gold leads the econom&!

C0ART-8.6

GOLD GUINEA 7 MONT0S MOVING AVERAGE

55

The belo$ graph sho$s dail& prices like closing prices of the gold guinea in the form of the technical tool indicator simple moving averages!

30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0


01 -0 220 12 15 -0 220 12 '3 /1 /2 01 15 2 -0 320 12 29 -0 320 12

Close "r !e

3 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

TA+LE-8.7

GOLDMINI-5FF GRAMS T(e ,elo' ta,le s(o's 7 MONT0S mov n# avera#es o) #oldm ne.

56

8ate ;-Man-17 @-Man-17 ?-Man-17 >-Man-17 11-Man-17 17-Man-17 1D-Man-17 14-Man-17 1E-Man-17 1;-Man-17 1?-Man-17 1>-Man-17 75-Man-17 71-Man-17 77-Man-17 7D-Man-17 7E-Man-17 7@-Man-17

CloseARsB 1;>47 1;>14 1;>17 1;>?5 1@15D 1;>@1 1;??? 1;>@D 1;>D5 1;>4D 1;>7@ 1@574 1;?51 1;;7; 1;EEE 1;E@1 1;E4? 1;E7;

D #<=TH0 #<S1=) ASERA)E 5 5 1;>77!;;;;@ 1;>DE!DDDDD 1;>>?!DDDDD 1@51? 1;>?@!DDDDD 1;>44 1;>D5!DDDDD 1;>4?!;;;;@ 1;>DD!DDDDD 1;>;4!;;;;@ 1;>1@!DDDDD 1;?1@ 1;;;5!;;;;@ 1;E?4 1;EE? 1;E4?!DDDDD

57

7?-Man-17 7>-Man-17 D5-Man-17 1-*eb-17 7-*eb-17 D-*eb-17 4-*eb-17 E-*eb-17 ;-*eb-17 ?-*eb-17 >-*eb-17 15-*eb-17 11-*eb-17 17-*eb-17 1D-*eb-17 1E-*eb-17 1;-*eb-17 1@-*eb-17 1?-*eb-17 1>-*eb-17

1;D@7 1;D7> 1;D4D 1;;4@ 1;@;; 1;;E> 1;1;E 1;15; 1;7>4 1;7@> 1;D7? 1;7?@ 1;4@1 1;4E5 1;E55 1;E>? 1;@D7 1;@E@ 1;@@> 1;?;5

1;4?7 1;45> 1;D4? 1;4D>!;;;;@ 1;E?E!DDDDD 1;;>5!;;;;@ 1;ED5 1;D15 1;1??!DDDDD 1;77;!DDDDD 1;D55!DDDDD 1;7>? 1;D;7 1;457!;;;;@ 1;4@D!;;;;@ 1;E1; 1;;15 1;;>E!;;;;@ 1;@E; 1;@>?!;;;;@

58

75-*eb-17 77-*eb-17 7D-*eb-17 74-*eb-17 7E-*eb-17 7;-*eb-17 7@-*eb-17 1-#ar-17 7-#ar-17 D-#ar-17 4-#ar-17 E-#ar-17 ;-#ar-17 ?-#ar-17 >-#ar-17 15-#ar-17 11-#ar-17 17-#ar-17 1D-#ar-17 1E-#ar-17

1;?77 1;@5D 1;E>> 1;4>4 1;;>; 1;@@D 1;@>5 1;@>> 1@51@ 1@57D 1;>EE 1;>5E 1;>1D 1;@4? 1;@D; 1;4>> 1;E45 1;4E? 1;4;D 1;E41

1;?75!DDDDD 1;@>E 1;@5? 1;E>?!;;;;@ 1;E>;!DDDDD 1;;E4!DDDDD 1;@ED 1;@?@!DDDDD 1;?;?!;;;;@ 1;>4;!DDDDD 1;>>?!DDDDD 1;>;1 1;>74!DDDDD 1;?EE!DDDDD 1;@>> 1;;;1 1;E>1!;;;;@ 1;4>> 1;4?@ 1;4?@!DDDDD

59

1;-#ar-17 1@-#ar-17 1?-#ar-17 1>-#ar-17 75-#ar-17 77-#ar-17 7D-#ar-17 74-#ar-17 7E-#ar-17 7;-#ar-17 7@-#ar-17 7>-#ar-17 D5-#ar-17 D1-#ar-17

1;@15 1;;?5 1;@E5 1;E57 1;4>? 1;41E 1;4D> 1;7>E 1;7E4 1;D74 1;DE; 1;7;1 1;747 1;7D7

1;E@1!DDDDD 1;;4D!;;;;@ 1;@1D!DDDDD 1;;44 1;E?D!DDDDD 1;4@1!;;;;@ 1;4E5!;;;;@ 1;D?D 1;D7>!DDDDD 1;7>1 1;D11!DDDDD 1;D1D!;;;;@ 1;7?;!DDDDD 1;74E

1-Apr-17 D-Apr-17 E-Apr-17

1;D@@ 1;47@ 1;D@@

1;7?D!;;;;@ 1;D4E!DDDDD 1;D>D!;;;;@

60

INTERPRETATION
As above data $e are taken )<.8 #1=1 Price moving from Manuar& ; th to April Eth, on ;th Manuar& it is closed on 1;>47, in bet$een the period on 11th Man it is closed to 1@15D , latterl& on Eth *eb! it came do$n to 1;15;, on Drd march it is increased to 1@57D , on 7E th march again it is come do$n to 1;7E4 , end of the contract on Eth April it is closed to 1;D@@! 1f &ou see total data the gold is highl& fluctuated because the gold leads the econom&!

C0ART-8.7

GOLDMINI 7 MONT0S MOVING AVERAGE

The belo$ graph sho$s dail& prices like closing prices of the goldmine in the form of the technical tool indicator simple moving averages!

61

40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0


06 -0 120 201 -0 1- 2 03 201 -0 2- 2 1# 201 -0 2 22 '3 012 /3 / 1# 201 -0 3- 2 31 201 -0 3- 2 20 12

C lose "r !e

3 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

TA+LE-8.8 GOLD 0NI <5FFF = 7 MONT0S MOVING AVERAGES T(e ,elo' ta,le s(o's 7 MONT0S mov n# avera#es o) #old (n .

8ate

CloseARsB

D #<=TH0 #<S1=) ASERA)E

62

1-Man-17 7-Man-17 4-Man-17 E-Man-17 ;-Man-17 @-Man-17 ?-Man-17 >-Man-17 11-Man-17 17-Man-17 1D-Man-17 14-Man-17 1E-Man-17 1;-Man-17 1?-Man-17 1>-Man-17 75-Man-17 71-Man-17 77-Man-17 7D-Man-17

1;?DE 1;?DE 1;;;@ 1;;;@ 1;;;@ 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;;;; 1;4>> 1;4>>

5 5 1;@@> 1;@7D 1;;;@ 1;@77!;;;;@ 1;@@?!DDDDD 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;?D4 1;@@? 1;;;;!DDDDD 1;EE4!;;;;@

63

7E-Man-17 7@-Man-17 7?-Man-17 7>-Man-17 D5-Man-17 1-*eb-17 7-*eb-17 D-*eb-17 4-*eb-17 E-*eb-17 ;-*eb-17 ?-*eb-17 >-*eb-17 15-*eb-17 11-*eb-17 17-*eb-17 1D-*eb-17 1E-*eb-17 1;-*eb-17 1@-*eb-17

1;4>> 1;4>> 1;4>> 1;DD4 1;DD4 1;DD4 1;DD4 1;4>@ 1;4>@ 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;4>E

1;4>> 1;4>> 1;4>> 1;444 1;D?> 1;DD4 1;DD4 1;D??!DDDDD 1;447!;;;;@ 1;447 1;D?@ 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;DD7 1;D?;!DDDDD

64

1?-*eb-17 1>-*eb-17 75-*eb-17 77-*eb-17 7D-*eb-17 74-*eb-17 7E-*eb-17 7;-*eb-17 7@-*eb-17 1-#ar-17 7-#ar-17 D-#ar-17 4-#ar-17 E-#ar-17 ;-#ar-17 ?-#ar-17 >-#ar-17 15-#ar-17 11-#ar-17 17-#ar-17

1;4>E 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;;;5 1;;;5 1;;;5 1;;;5 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;;E> 1;4>7

1;445!;;;;@ 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;4>E 1;EE5 1;;5E 1;;;5 1;;;5 1;@1E!;;;;@ 1;@@1!DDDDD 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;?7@ 1;@@1 1;;E>!DDDDD

65

1D-#ar-17 1E-#ar-17 1;-#ar-17 1@-#ar-17 1?-#ar-17 1>-#ar-17 75-#ar-17 77-#ar-17 7D-#ar-17 74-#ar-17 7E-#ar-17 7;-#ar-17 7@-#ar-17 7>-#ar-17 D5-#ar-17 D1-#ar-17 1-Apr-17 D-Apr-17 E-Apr-17

1;4>7 1;D7@ 1;D7@ 1;4>5 1;4>5 1;4>5 1;4>5 1;4>5 1;4>5 1;D7E 1;D7E 1;D7E 1;D7E 1;1;7 1;1;7 1;555 1;555 1;555 1;1;5

1;E4@!;;;;@ 1;4D@ 1;D?7 1;D?1!DDDDD 1;4DE!;;;;@ 1;4>5 1;4>5 1;4>5 1;4>5 1;4DE 1;D?5 1;D7E 1;D7E 1;7@5!;;;;@ 1;71;!DDDDD 1;15? 1;5E4 1;555 1;5ED!DDDDD

66

INTERPRETATION

As above data $e are taken )<.8 H=1 Price moving from Manuar& 1 st to April Eth , on 1st Manuar& it is closed on 1;?DE in bet$een the period on Man 7; th it is closed to 1;;;; , latterl& on ; *eb! it came do$n to 1;DD7, on 15 march it is increased to 1;?7@ , on 7@th march again it is come do$n to 1;D7E , end of the contract on Eth April it is closed to 1;1;5! 1f &ou see total data the gold is highl& fluctuated because the gold leads the econom&!

C0ART-8.8

GOLD0NI 7 MONT0S MOVING AVERAGES

The belo$ graph sho$s dail& prices like closing prices of the gold hni in the form of the technical tool indicator simple moving averages!

67

40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0


01 -0 1'1 201 /1 2 5/ 29 201 -0 2 112 201 -0 2 226 201 -0 2 212 201 -0 2 326 201 -0 2 320 12

Close "r !e

3 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

ANAL4SIS AND INTERPRITATIONS OF T0E GRAP0

The above graphs sho$s dail& prices like closing prices of the precious metal commodit& AgoldB in the form of the technical tour indicator ,simple moving avarage-

The moving avarage is the graph sho$s the moving trends of the inde' of gold futures for the si' months period data are tekan in to consideration of defferant gold contracts!

68

#oving avarage is used in-order to anal&se the past trends of the particular commodit& AgoldB and helping interpretations for the anal&st and investors $hether to bu&, hold or sell particular commodit& in the near future!

1n this particular graphs $e have taken three #<=TH0 moving avarages on dail& basis for period of three months! Three #<=TH0 moving avarage is generall& consider for interpreting the short term trends are intrada& trading on a dail& terms!

1n commodit& market most of the investors are trading in intra-da& points, the& generall& make both bu& and sell signals in a da&! The bu&ers and sellers mainl& follo$ three #<=TH0 moving avarages!

Here volumes are not taken in to concideration for anal&sis porpos! Even the& effect the high-lo$ in the market! This anal&sis is based onl& on each da& trading closing prices!

ANAL4SIS FOR GOLD

1n this starting contract the closing prices of three #<=TH0 moving averages $hich indicate a step increasing in the commodit& future and it happens in the %anuar& as there $as no fluctuation in commodit& market and from the %anuar& on$ards there $ere high incresing of gold prices! The moving average sho$s a incresing trend in the commodit& market $hich sho$s a ver& bullish trend,because of high incresing trend and also the closing prices of the contract period!

69

70

C(a"ter 9 FINDINGS& SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

FINDINGS

)<.8 Price moving from Manuar& 1st to April Eth, on 1st Manuar& it is closed on 1;@4@ in bet$een the period on Man 11th it is closed to 1@5>7, latterl& on 7> th Man it came do$n to 1;D1@, on 7 nd *eb! it is increased to 1;@E4, on Eth *eb! again it is come do$n to 1;15;, end of the contract on Eth April it is closed to 1;D@@! The gold is highl& fluctuated because the gold leads the econom&! 1n )<.8 H=1 Price moving from Manuar& 1st to April Eth , on 1st Manuar& it is closed on 1;?DE in bet$een the period on Man 7;th it is closed to 1;;;; , latterl& on ; *eb! it came do$n to 1;DD7, on 15 march

71

it is increased to 1;?7@ , on 7@ th march again it is come do$n to 1;D7E , end of the contract on E th April it is closed to 1;1;5! )<.8 )21=EA Price moving from *ebruar& 1 st to April Eth, on 1st *ebruar& it is closed on 1D1?D in bet$een the period on *eb! 1>th it is closed to 1DD;4 , latterl& on 7; th *eb! it came do$n to 1D7??, on D rd march it is increased to 1D4D> , on D5 th march again it is come do$n to 17>D1 , end of the contract on E th April it is closed to 17>>7! )<.8 #1=1 Price moving from Manuar& ; th to April Eth, on ;th Manuar& it is closed on 1;>47, in bet$een the period on 11th Man it is closed to 1@15D , latterl& on E th *eb! it came do$n to 1;15;, on D rd march it is increased to 1@57D , on 7E th march again it is come do$n to 1;7E4 , end of the contract on E th April it is closed to 1;D@@!

REASONS FOR RISE IN GOLD PRICE

T(e #old "r $e $losed at HG69.9F. On >an!ar. 65& 5IGF& ,!t toda.& t ta%es H6&6FF.FF to ,!. '(at HG69.9F ,o!#(t n >an!ar. 5IGF. T(e reason )or t(e r se n t(e #old "r $e are # ven ,elo'J T(e Dollar Sl de !

72

Fl #(t to K!al t. ! O l Vers!s Gold Rat o

Central Commod t. EA$(an#e Sales and P!r$(ases ! Investment Demand ! Commod t es S!"er-C.$le !

SUGGESTIONS

The volatilit& of the )old future price has been derived and it sho$s the price is highl& volatile 1nvesting in the )old is more profitable and less risk& since, )old price is e'pected to increase further in the long,

73

)old prices float freel& in accordance $ith suppl& and demand, responding uickl& to political and economic events! These findings are of considerable importance for gold investors and traders!

74

CONCLUSION

1n the last three months the market $as sho$ing more of bu&ing signals than sellings! This sho$s a good trend for gold in near future for long term investors and prices might rise and mostl& investor are earning profit if anal&se the market properl&! The period spent on training $as interesting and the officers in charges of various section $orks $ere good to e'tend their full co-operation and e'plain about the detail of the $ork /ithout their support $e cannot make a good report to our pro%ect To conclude this training and pro%ect as help us to kno$ about gold trading in market

75

+I+LIOGRAP04

76

+I+LIOGRAP04

+OO1S L MAGAMINES
C<##<81TJ #ARLET A= 1=TR<82CT1<= (J MA=AR8HA=A= (201=E00 /<R.8 #A)AK1=E C<##<81TJ #ARLET #A)AK1=E C<RP<RATE 1=81A #A)AK1=E H1=82 =E/0 PAPER EC<=<#1C0 T1#E

/E+SITES
$$$!gold!org $$$!gfms!co!uk $$$!bullionindia!com $$$!ncde'!com $$$!mc'india!com $$$!nmce!com $$$!fmc!gov!inv $$$!sebi!gov!in $$$!investopedia!com $$$!$ikipedia!com $$$!netdani&a!com

77