Myanmar: More than regime change is needed,

Gaurav Daga, 3 September 2013, The Malay Mail Online. Link - http://www.themalaymailonline.com/opinion/gauravdaga/article/myanmar-more-than-regime-change-is-needed SEPT 3 The 1998 uprising, which was sparked off by students and later drew people from all walks of life, was centred around Yangon and other major towns, including those in the ethnic-nationality states. It was a countrywide wave of protest against the authoritarian one-party system and the economic and conflict-related hardships that it entailed. We know what the uprising was against, but it failed to achieve its reason Democracy. A dream which was just a figment of peoples imagination then. However, the year 2011 bought much-awaited justice to the people and to their well- known leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The Burmese democratic reforms, which started in 2011, by the military backed government, was a conclusive move for the democratic supporters. Nevertheless, military officers still play a major role in political economy. Thein Sein, a military commander, became the President of Myanmar in 2011. He is often cited as a moderate and reformist in the post-junta government. His government undertook a series of governmental reforms including easing the countrys censored media, releasing political prisoners and halting the countrys controversial Chinese-led hydropower project. The striking developments also led to Myanmars appointment as ASEAN chair in the upcoming year; 2014. These domestic, regional reforms are commendable but raise a very important question of whether it is possible to separate military officers from Myanmars political economy. Currently, Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) hold a majority in parliament. USDP revolved from Myanmars former ruling military junta the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). One of the reasons USDP won the election was because of the criteria for nominating candidates in at least three constituencies. Such criteria could not be fulfilled by many political parties. Moreover, all the Speaker and deputy Speaker positions in all legislatures are filled by USDP members. The most important ministries such as the border, home, defence and external affairs are also in the hands of the military personnel. About one-third of the ministers gained the same folios they had been controlling before the election. The change, which was expected from the dissolution of SLORC, was just an illusion.

Some analysts view it as a move to maintain the military hegemony in Myanmar. One alarming fact is that in spite of having serious challenges for Myanmars economic development, the new government still chooses to allocate almost 23 per cent of its national Budget to defense building. Opposition members of parliament and democracy advocators have raised fears about military lawmakers who may prove an obstacle to amending the Constitution regardless of whether the government presses for change. This will affect Aung San Suu Kyis presidential ambitions for the future elections. Concerns have also risen about opportunities for increased rent seeking by the members of SLORC. With increased economic activity, transition to democratic nation, new sources of licit and illicit wealth can multiply rent seeking activities. The good news is that highly qualified Burmese are returning home, political prisoners are getting released, NGO activists and donor community are working with the government, as well as with the National League of Democracy, to ensure transparency, accountability, economic policies and the rule of law. However, the members of SLORC are motivated, individually and severally, by power and security or the fear of losing both. Whether or not Aung San Suu Kyi would accept a Chilean (Pinochet) model of democracy is unknown. Whether it could work in a country with such a weak democratic tradition is also unclear. But some version of Chilean model some method of maintaining military privileges and rent-seeking and preventing retribution may be favoured now or soon by the members of SLORC. The politics is intricate. In certain respects, the challenges to democracy-building in Myanmar are greater than those seen in Chile or presently in Egypt. Till 2015, the country might face tough years of politics. Myanmars citizens should focus on how well parties representing them in parliament are shaping the countrys future. Unless and until there is a citizens consensus on its growing democracy, Myanmars future lies in deep trouble. As rightly put by Aung San Suu Kyi: What we want is value change Regime change can be temporary, but value change is a long-term business. We want the values in our country to be changed. We want a sound foundation for change. Even if theres regime change, if these basic values have not changed, then one regime change can lead to another regime change and so on and on. * This is the personal opinion of the columnist.