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First Quarter 2014

Investment Management
Dear Clients & Friends; The financial markets posted modest, albeit positive, returns in the first quarter. The U.S. equity market gained 2% this period, while the International equity markets, in aggregate, were up 1%. Domestic fixed income markets managed a 2% increase in the quarter as treasury yields declined during the period. Alternative Investments generally outperformed traditional investments with Real Estate Investment Trusts up 10% and the U.S. Commodity Index up 5%, with Corn prices leading the way rising 17%. Overall, we continue to believe that well-diversified, low-cost investment strategies will continue to produce favorable results over time. The first quarter was a busy one for us at Wisco. We met with many of you this quarter to discuss 2013 investment performance as well as to review your current situation and objectives for the future. We believe these meetings are beneficial to both parties and we want you to know that we are always available to meet when you think it would be helpful. Also, dont forget that the last day to make your 2013 IRA contribution is right around the corner (tax day is April 15). Looking ahead, we are planning to host our second quarter investment seminar on Wednesday, May 28th at 6:00 pm at Blackhawk Country Club. We are looking forward to the change in weather and hopefully a few of you will be available to play a round of golf that afternoon. Wisco will also be presenting at a few local social clubs and service organizations this spring and summer and would always welcome the opportunity to do the same for your organization. In addition, as we move into the warmer months, we are excited to be sponsors of the Logans Heart & Smiles Golf Outing and the Festa Italia 2014! Lastly, we thought it would be noteworthy to mention that Wisco Investment Management just celebrated its third anniversary as a Wisconsin-Registered Investment Adviser on March 30th. We would like to thank all of you for helping us turn an idea into a business and look forward to serving you, your family and your friends in the future. Thank you. Sincerely,

Wisco

The Wisco Team

Stephen Share
sshare@wiscoinvest.com

Chas Janisch
cjanisch@wiscoinvest.com

Greg Schroeder
gschroeder@wiscoinvest.com

Office: 608.442.5507 Fax: 608.237.2206

402 Gammon Place, Suite 380 Madison, WI 53719

Wisco Investment Management


Wisco model portfolios are constructed using five different asset classes; Domestic Equity, International Equity, Domestic Fixed Income, Alternative Investments and Money Market. Our current model portfolio asset class allocations are as follows: Wisco Model Portfolios Domestic Equity International Equity Domestic Fixed Income Alternative Investments Money Market Total Target Volatility*
Conservative Balanced Balanced Growth Growth Aggressive

33% 5% 42% 10% 10% 100% 6%

38% 16% 29% 10% 7% 100% 8%

43% 26% 16% 10% 5% 100% 10%

52% 30% 4% 10% 4% 100% 12%

60% 30% 0% 8% 2% 100% 14%

*Target Volatility is our estimate for the annual standard deviation of portfolio returns. Source: Wisco Investment Management LLC

First Quarter 2014 Market Review


Domestic Equity
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009 2010

33% 28% Quarterly Returns 17% 16% 11% 10% 1%


2011 2012 2013 1Q13

3%
2Q13

6% 2%
3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

increasing just 2.6%. A harsh winter likely kept a lid on the economy in both the 4th and 1st quarters and we would expect to see some improved growth as we move into the warmer months. The Federal Reserve continued to taper its bond purchases in the quarter. Going forward, we expect the Fed to end its bond buying program in 2014 which will likely be a modest headwind for the financial markets. That said, we continue to feel returning to a more normal monetary policy shouldnt significantly impact GDP growth and we feel corporate earnings could continue to grow 5% to 10% in 2014. At Wisco, we continue to feel domestic market returns will be just OK in 2014. On a valuation basis, the market appears fairly valued with the S&P 500 trading at a P/E of 15.8x 2014 consensus earnings which suggests multiple expansion opportunities may be limited. Therefore, earnings growth could be the key to higher stock prices. We feel modest earnings growth could lead to some stock appreciation.

Source: Dow Jones U.S. Broad Stock Market Index and Wisco.

The domestic equity market had a modest positive return in the quarter posting a 2% gain. The S&P 500 did reach a new all-time high March 7th of 1878 before posting a slight decline for the balance of the month. S&P 500 4Q13 operating earnings grew a respectable 7% y/y, however, GDP was soft in 4Q13

International Equity
37% Quarterly Returns 10% 2% -3% -14%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Domestic Fixed Income


10%

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

8% 6% 4%

8% 6% 7% Quarterly Returns 3% 0% -2%


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q13

11%

17% 14%

5%

1%

2% 0% -2% -4%

1% -1% -3%
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

2%

1Q14

Source: MSCI ACWI ex USA and Wisco

Source: Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and Wisco.

The international equity markets posted a 1% return in the quarter, with developed markets modestly outperforming emerging markets. In Europe, the STOXX 50 gained 2% as the Euro zone posted a rather meager 0.5% GDP growth. Greeces Athex Composite returned 15% in the quarter, while Hungarys Budapest index fell 5%. Japans Nikkei 225 decreased 9% in the quarter giving back some of last years 57% return. Some emerging markets posted negative returns in the quarter with Russias RTSI index down 15% because of political tensions in the Ukraine. Brazils IBOVESPA declined 2% and the Shanghai composite fell 4% as tighter monetary policy continues to negatively impact growth. Wisco continues to have a positive outlook on Developed International Markets. For the most part, these markets trade at lower PE ratios then the S&P 500s PE ratio and could see accelerating GDP growth in 2014. That said, we are cautious on Emerging International Markets. The reason for this is that these markets tend to be less developed and therefore more vulnerable to tightening by central banks. This tightening cycle may still be in its early stage which we feel warrants caution.

The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index increased 2% in the quarter recovering from a subpar 2013. On March 18th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would reduce its bond buying program to $55 billion a month and we think new Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen would like to end this program before year end. Despite this announcement, the 10-year treasury yield which hit a 52-week high of 3.03% on Dec. 31, 2013, closed the quarter at just 2.72%. Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Index (TIPS) increased 2% in the quarter, while both the investment grade and high yield bond indices posted positive returns of 3% and 2% respectively in the quarter. At Wisco, we expect low Fixed Income returns for the foreseeable future. Less Fed support of the Treasury market combined with a stronger economy could result in gradually higher rates. That said, we continue to expect low volatility from our Fixed Income investments and maintain a position in this asset class in our more conservative models. We continue to supplement our aggregate bond ETF with a high yield bond ETF to improve overall yield and a TIPS ETF to protect against inflation.

Alternative Investments The United States Commodity Index (USCI) returned 5% in the quarter. In agriculture, corn prices recovered some of the loss it experienced in 2013 increasing 17%1. Soybean prices increased 9%1, as dry conditions in South America along with a slow start to the North American planting season appear to be pushing agricultural prices higher. Precious metals also experienced better prices in the first quarter with gold up 7%2 and silver up 2%3. Investors likely rotated into safe-haven metals as harsh winter conditions slowed economic growth and political uncertainty from the Ukraine worried investors. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) had a nice quarter returning 10%4. In the Energy market, crude oil returned 2%5 while Energy Master Limited Partnerships returned 1%6. Wisco continues to hold a broad-based commodity ETF in most of our model portfolios. We like this

investment both for its return potential as well as its low correlation to other investments we hold in our model portfolios. In more conservative portfolios we also hold an energy infrastructure master limited partnership and a gold ETF. We expect the MLP ETF to offer consistent returns at a better yield than most fixed income investments, while gold is a good hedge against inflation. In our most Aggressive model we continue to invest in REITs given their strong growth potential and decent yield, albeit with higher volatility. Money Market Wisco keeps a modest money market allocation in all of our model portfolios. The current yield of the Schwab Money Market is 0.01%. Low Federal Funds rates have held down short-term yields. We think short-term interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Return calculation based on the near future contract as quoted in the Wall Street Journal. Return calculation uses ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) as a proxy for gold. Return calculation uses iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) as a proxy for silver. Return calculation uses Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) as a proxy for Real Estate Investment Trusts. Return calculation uses Cushing, OK WTI spot price FOB as a proxy for oil. Return calculation uses Alerian MLP (AMLP) as a proxy for Energy Master Limited Partnerships.

Wisco Investment Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities product, service, or investment strategy. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation discussed herein.

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