The differing influence of public opinion is mediated largely through a presidents beliefs about the proper influence that

public opinion should have on foreign policy1 American politics two strands of democratic theory suggest alternative views of the manner in which elected officials respond to public opinion: DEMOCRATIC THEORIES 1. The delegate view: Officials act as the publics representative by acting on their constituents wishes. Public opinion, it is argued, should play a vital role in formulating policy, and policies should reflect public preferences on important matters, as expressed through available mechanisms (voting, polls, and interest group activity). 2. The trustee view: elected officials rely more on their own judgment than on presumably uninformed opinions of their constituents. In this view, officials handle the complicated issues facing the government, and the publics involvement is limited primarily to selecting candidates at the ballot box. This view portrays the public as uninformed. Pluralist model: power is dispersed throughout the society, there is no one set of dominating interests. Media and public are independent from political influence, and they act as constraints of the government. Elite model: media and public are subservient of political elites. Media acts mobilizing consent in support of respective policies.

Foyle, Douglas, Counting the Public In Presidents, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy (New York, 1999), p. ix.

4 possible explanations of the correlation between publics view and the actions of elected officials Bernard Cohen: P.O. plays little role, leaders attempt to shape it. It reflects the realist position. 1. Decisions makers ignore P.O. with public support automatically following policy. 2. Decisions makers ignore P.O., but, they support efforts to changes publics mind after setting the policy. 3.Media can perform an agenda setting role: issues get attention from politicians due to media coverage, but, it had little impact on their decisions. P.O. set parameters of acceptable alternatives. Electoral consequences are seen as the biggest constraint. Successful policy needs to have public support or lack of disapproval. P.O. and policy interact in a manner that lies in the middle of P.O. leadership and elites manipulation. P.O. affected policy more often than policy alters opinion. High public approval ratings seem to influence presidential decisions to use military forces more than international conditions do. Powlick, Russet, Kusnitz: P.O. influences by eliminating F.P. options because of public opposition. Page, Shapiro Graham: P.O. often affect policies, but, this depend on the level of public support for a policy option. *Decision makers can oppose to P.O. If: 1.less than 59% supported the policy. 2.levels of 60% or more decision making.

P.O. can cause decision makers to choose policies the public prefers.

3. Effectiveness of elite communication strategies, the Democratic responsivness and stage of policy process and elite manipulation can exist at the same awareness of the dimensions of time. P.O> matter. Other variables: proximity of Elites may often turn to P.O to assess elections, type of issue under policy means and ends. consideration, individual sensitivity to public opinion, and decision context.

CLASSICAL REALISTS (trustee perspective) Public opinion=constraints the free hand of policy makers to make wise foreign policy. (Morgenthau). Publics slow response to events and lack of information threatens the wellbeing of any nation that relies on public opinion to guide foreign policy. (Lippman) HOWEVER, ELITES USUALLY IGNORE THE PUBLICS PREFERENCES ALTOGETHER OR PERSUADE THEM TO SUPPORT THE CHOSEN POLICY. WHY? F.P. depends on: *Complicated trade offs *Access to secret information *Sophisticated reasoning CONCLUDE: P.O.=EMOTIONAL OFFICIALS:RATIONALS Officials build public support after an alternative has been chosen. (Educational efforts) Dominated much more of the period after WWII NEOREALISTS Internal factors rarely influence state decisions either in crises or under normal conditions. P.O. notoriously fickle in national security issues and responsive to elite manipulations and world events. Elites are expected either to ignore or to educate them.

LIBERALS (delegate perspective) P.O. should affect F.P. because of democratic norms, influencing possibly adventurous and overambitious elites. F.P. is the virtuous guide: Only a free people could hold their purpose and their honour steady to a common end and prefer interest of mankind to any narrow interest on their own (Woodrow Wilson). Democratic leaders should discern and implement the publics will. *P.O. affects F.P. formulation by limiting extreme elite tendencies, providing policy innovations, and leading the government to select the policy the public prefers. *In democracies: the elites fear of loosing public support (political capital) *However, in decisions that require quick action P.O. might constrain the range of responses, as it takes time to gather the opinion from the population. *Officials respond to P.O. in policies that develop over a long period of time. Domestic influences are an important determinant of foreign policy behaviour: domestic considerations affect perceptions, the development of options and policy choices, and the timing of international action in both crises or ordinary circumstances. (can influence: crisis initiation, crisis escalation, the use of force,, international bargaining, and broader strategic policy).

BELIEFS MODEL (Douglas Foyle, 1999) Trustee, Delegate, Realist or Liberals theories might explain accurately the influences of P.O., but, they also depend on the individual and decision context. 3 Processes may affect F.P.: *P.O. can affect policymaking through a decision makers anticipation of the publics future reactions. (when policy is announced, next election) Decision makers use their previous experiences to draw a possible publics preferences when no specific information about the P.O. exists. Even with information available this can occur. *Images of the existing P.O. context may also affect policy. (P.O. attitudes, culture=PERCEPTIONS) *Indicators of public attitudes can change perceptions: polling data, letters, editorial opinion, views of assessors). It is regarded by Foyle (1999) as the least influential.

Critical approaches (Herman and Chomsky, 1988) Marxism and Critical Theories. Economical and political interests. *State is a function of elite groups. The mass media sustain the inequality=>propagate the interest of elites. (Opinions manufactured). *Commercial imperatives act over controversial issues. (state interests=business interests). *common in liberal democratic states=> promotion of capitalist and liberal values. *Western mainstream media perpetuate an image of western democracies as the model to follow. *Global information is dominated by powerful states and economic interests. *Humanitarian treatment of catastrophes is superficial. *Media and public opinion are secondary and elites mould them.