Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Mostafa El-Abany
Session objectives
To understand the basic principles and concepts of control charts To understand variation and how this links with decision making To understand the concepts of a system process and to recognise and measure for improvement To explore different ways of presenting data To construct and analyse a control chart To understand targets in relation to variation To be able to recognise the need for ongoing data monitoring and management
Sources of variation
Staff
skills
Process
motivation unclear guidelines differ
Patients
age motivation
disease race education
complications anaesthetics
sex
transcription transport
Kit
Information
Reducing Variation
Quality Measures
Attribute
a process characteristic that can be evaluated with a discrete response good bad; yes - no
Variable
a process characteristic that is continuous and can be measured weight - length
Nature of defect is different in services Service defect is a failure to meet customer requirements Monitor times, customer satisfaction
Definitions
Statistical Formulas
Statistics-Mean
Mean = arithmetic average = X bar (as spoken) =X (as written) =SX n where S X = sum of Xs and n = sample size
Statistics Median
Median=middle value Half of the values are greater than the median and half are less than the median, when the values are placed in numerical order.
Statistics Mode
Mode = most frequently occurring value Find the mode of 4,6,7,9,4
The most popular, or mode is 4
Statistics - Range
Range = spread of the extreme results Example: Find the range of 4,6,7,9,4,2,5,8,7,9,3 The extreme values are 2 and 9. The range R = 9 2 = 7
Standard Deviation
Although the range is an easy way to measure variation, it has a drawback. The range only takes into account the extreme values and disregards all other information. To overcome this, Standard Deviation is used as the preferred measure of spread.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure which reflects variability and dispersion of a process. The greater the variability, the greater the standard deviation. Standard Deviation is represented by the symbol sigma s
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is calculated from:
= S ( X X )/n-1
Scientific calculators have eliminated the need for this complex calculation!
s = 2.74
3 2 1 1
3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
SX = 54 n=9 X bar = 6
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
s = 2.40
s = 2.12
Variability
Random
common causes inherent in a process can be eliminated only through improvements in the system
Non-Random
special causes due to identifiable factors can be modified through operator or management action
Common Causes
Special Causes
Control Charts
A graph that establishes control limits of a process Control limits upper and lower bands of a control chart
Variables
range (R-chart) mean (x bar chart)
1 f (X ) e s 2
( x )2 2s 2
The normal distribution is specified completely when we know the mean, , and the standard deviation, s .
40
= 50
60
40
= 50
60
40
= 50 Smaller , same s
60
= 40
50
60
Larger , same s
| | |
40
50
= 60
2-35
Same , smaller s
Same , larger s
Variability
The world tends to be bell-shaped
Z Score
Definition: In statistics, a z-score is a standardized score that indicates how many standard deviations a data point is from the mean. A zscore is calculated by subtracting the population mean from the individual score. This difference is then divided by the population standard deviation. Z-scores have an average of zero and can range from -4 to +4. Scores above zero are considered above average, while those below zero are considered below average.
Where
X = value of the random variable we want to measure = mean of the distribution s = standard deviation of the distribution Z = number of standard deviations from X to the mean,
130 100 15
P(X < 130) = 100 s = 15
30 2 std dev 15
| 55 | 3
| 70 | 2
| 85 | 1
| 100 | 0
| 115 | 1
| 130 | 2
| 145 | 3
X = IQ
s
2-44
2.1
2.2
0.98214
0.98610
0.98257
0.98645
0.98300
0.98679
0.98341
0.98713
125 100 20
25 1.25 20
From Appendix A, for Z = 1.25 the area is 0.89435. The probability is about 0.89 that Haynes will not violate the contract.
X = 125 days
2-47
T- Distribution
The t distribution (aka, Students tdistribution) is a probability distribution that is used to estimate population parameters when the sample size is small and/or when the population variance is unknown.
Degrees of Freedom
There are actually many different t distributions. The particular form of the t distribution is determined by its degrees of freedom. The degrees of freedom refers to the number of independent observations in a set of data. When estimating a mean score or a proportion from a single sample, the number of independent observations is equal to the sample size minus one. Hence, the distribution of the t statistic from samples of size 8 would be described by a t distribution having 8 - 1 or 7 degrees of freedom. Similarly, a t distribution having 15 degrees of freedom would be used with a sample of size 16.
T Distribution
The t distribution is the sampling distribution of the t statistic. The values of the t statistic are given by: t = [ x - ] / [ s / sqrt( n ) ] where x is the sample mean, is the population mean, s is the standard deviation of the sample, and n is the sample size.
T Distribution (cont.)
The t distribution can be used whenever samples are drawn from populations possessing a bellshaped distribution (i.e., approximately normal). The distribution of the t statistic is similar to the distribution of a standard score . Both distributions are symmetrical with a mean of zero. Also, both distributions are bell-shaped, although the t distribution has a bigger variance.
T Distribution (cont.)
To evaluate probabilities associated with the t distribution, we need to recognize that there are actually many different t distributions. The particular form of the t distribution is determined by its degrees of freedom .
Degrees of Freedom
There are actually many different t distributions. The particular form of the t distribution is determined by its degrees of freedom. The degrees of freedom refers to the number of independent observations in a set of data. When estimating a mean score or a proportion from a single sample, the number of independent observations is equal to the sample size minus one. Hence, the distribution of the t statistic from samples of size 8 would be described by a t distribution having 8 - 1 or 7 degrees of freedom. Similarly, a t distribution having 15 degrees of freedom would be used with a sample of size 16.
Example
Acme Corporation manufactures light bulbs. The CEO claims that an average Acme light bulb lasts 300 days. A researcher randomly selects 15 bulbs for testing. The sampled bulbs last an average of 290 days, with a standard deviation of 50 days. If the CEO's claim were true, what is the probability that 15 randomly selected bulbs would have an average life of no more than 290 days?
Solution
The first thing we need to do is compute the t score, based on the following equation: t = [ x - ] / [ s / sqrt( n ) ] t = ( 290 - 300 ) / [ 50 / sqrt( 15) ] = = -10 / 12.909945 = - 0.7745966 where x is the sample mean, is the population mean, s is the standard deviation of the sample, and n is the sample size.
x e
X!
where
P(X) = = e= X= probability of exactly X arrivals or occurrences average number of arrivals per unit of time (the mean arrival rate) 2.718, the base of natural logarithms specific value (0, 1, 2, 3, ) of the random variable
x e
Customer
Control Charts
Definition: A statistical tool to determine if a process is in control.
Control charts that factor in the quality attributes of a process to determine if the process is performing in or out of control.
Control Charts
1- Collection: Gather data and plot on a chart. 2- Control: Calculate trial control limits from process data. Identify special causes of variation and act upon them 3- Analysis and improvement
c-charts
uses number of defects in an item
p-Chart
UCL = p + zsp LCL = p - zsp z = number of standard deviations from process average p = sample proportion defective; an estimate of process average sp = standard deviation of sample proportion
sp =
()
p-Chart Example
Sample 1 2 3 .. .. 20 Number of Defectives 6 0 4 .. .. 18 200 Proportion Defective .06 .00 .04 .. .. .18
Proportion defective
0.14
0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 2 LCL = 0.010 4 6 8 10 12 14 Sample number 16 18 20 p = 0.10
c-Chart
UCL = c + zsc LCL = c - zsc
sc = where c
c-Chart (cont.)
Number of defects in 15 sample rooms Sample Number of defectives 1 12 c=190/15=12.67 2 8 3 16 UCL= c +z sc .... .. = 12.67+3 12.67 . ... = 23.35 15 15 LCL = c - z sc = 12.67- 3 12.67 190 = 1.99
24 UCL = 23.35 21 18 15 12 9
Number of defects
c = 12.67
c-Chart (cont.)
6
3 LCL = 1.99
10
12
14
16
Sample number
PART NAME : GLASS RUN PART NO : SPECS MIN : 1.10 TO 1.50 MAX REASON :
Page 25/9/01
1 1 2 3 4 5
X R 1.50 1.50 1.60 1.50 1.50 1.52 0.10
2
1.50 1.50 1.48 1.48 1.50 1.49 0.02
3
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.52 1.60 1.52 0.10
4
1.50 1.53 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.51 0.03
5
1.50 1.50 1.48 1.53 1.50 1.50 0.05
6
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.00
7
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.55 1.51 0.05
8
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.55 1.51 0.05
9
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.45 1.45 1.48 0.05
10
1.50 1.55 1.55 1.50 1.55 1.53 0.05
11
1.60 1.60 1.50 1.50 1.55 1.55 0.10
12
1.50 1.55 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.52 0.05
13
1.60 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.53 0.10
14
1.50 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.53 0.10
15
1.60 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.53 0.10
16
1.55 1.45 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.10
X
17
1.60 1.60 1.50 1.50 1.45 1.53 0.15
UCL
18
1.55 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.50
19
1.50 1.50 1.60 1.60 1.55
20
1.50 1.48 1.55 1.50 1.55 1 2 3 4
d2
A2
D4
3.27 3.27 2.57 2.29
1.600 1.580 1.560 1.540 1.520 1.500 1.480 1.460 1.440 1.420 1.400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
5 2.326 0.58 2.11 SUM X SUM X1+..+Xn 30.37 1.54 1.55 1.52 X SUM X1+..+Xn/n 1.519 0.10 0.10 0.07 R SUM R1+..+Rn/n 0.074 SIGMA R/d2 0.032 LCL CL 3 SIGMA 3 * R/d2 0.095 6 SIGMA 6 * R/d2 0.190
X - CHART
Cp =
Cpk= MIN OF Cpu OR Cpl
2.11
-0.20 4.41 1.500 1.100
Cpk =
18 19 20
UCL
LCL
CL
1.561 1.476
R - CHART
0.155 0.000
The time of an 8-hour shift, be divided in 12 equal parts. Samples should be taken round about every 45 minutes.
1) As per the plan, visit the process and collect a sample of required number of units. 2) Measure the units and record. 3) Take requisite number of samples ( 20-25). 4) Calculate the mean of each of the sample. 5) Calculate the range of each of the sample.
In our case
R= (7 + 5 +4 3 + 5 + 4 + 6 + 4 + 3 + 3 ) Total number of subgroups
Trial control limits for range control chart Upper Control Limit, UCLr = D4 x R Lower Control Limit, LCLr = D3 x R
For mean control chart Upper Control Limit, UCLx = 50 + 0.577 x 4.4=52.5 Lower Control Limit, LCLx = 50 - 0.577 x 4.4=47.5
For range control chart Upper Control Limit, UCLr = 2.115 x 4.4 = 9.3 Lower Control Limit, LCLr = 0 x 4.4 = 0
- None of the subgroup mean is less than 47.5 - None of the range is more than 9.3 - None of the range is less than 0
Hence there is no revision of trial control limits is required. These limits can be used for maintaining the control charts.
Uwlx = 50 + = 51.7
2 x 0.577 x 4.4
3
= 48.3
= 1.81 x 4.4
=8
= 1.6
Chances of an observation falling outside original -3 s and + 3 s zone increases with the increase in the shift of process mean.
Any point outside one of the control limits A run of seven points all above or all below the central line, or all increasing / all decreasing Any unusual patterns or trends within the control limits The proportion of points within the middle 1/3 of the region between the control limits differs excessively from 2/3
corrected.
UCL UWL
Statistics
LWL LCL
8
128
Sample Number
Statistics
LWL LCL
8
129
Sample Number
Special causes - Rule 3 Seven consecutive points having upward trend UCL UWL
Statistics
LWL LCL
8
130
Sample Number
UWL Statistics
LWL
LCL
8
131
Sample Number
UCL UWL
Statistics
LWL LCL
3 4 5 Sample Number
8
132
Statistics
LWL LCL
3 4 5 Sample Number
8
133
A Process Is in Control If
1. no sample points outside limits 2. most points near process average 3. about equal number of points above and below centerline 4. points appear randomly distributed
Example
A waiting time target has been given of not more than 4 hours so the Spec Limit is 4 hours (the maximum allowable waiting time). A better wording for this target would be:
All patients should wait less than 4 hours, the shorter time the better This encourages people to think about how to improve rather than just work towards the poorest performance that patients will tolerate.
Process Capability
The ability of a process to meet product design/technical specifications Conducted only when the process is normally distributed.
Process Capability
Tolerances
design specifications reflecting product requirements
Process capability
range of natural variability in a process what we measure with control charts
Process Capability
Design Specifications (a) Natural variation exceeds design specifications; process is not capable of meeting specifications all the time.
Process
Design Specifications (b) Design specifications and natural variation the same; process is capable of meeting specifications most of the time.
Process
Computing Cp
Net weight specification = 9.0 oz 0.5 oz Process mean = 8.80 oz Process standard deviation = 0.12 oz
upper specification limit lower specification limit Cp = 6s
,
=
Cpk = minimum
upper specification limit - x 3s
Computing Cpk
Net weight specification = 9.0 oz 0.5 oz Process mean = 8.80 oz Process standard deviation = 0.12 oz
= x - lower specification limit , 3s = upper specification limit - x 3s 8.80 - 8.50 9.50 - 8.80 , = 0.83 3(0.12) 3(0.12)
Cpk = minimum
= minimum
Fact ors
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1.88 1.02 0.73 0.58 0.48 0.42 0.37 0.44 0.11 0.99 0.77 0.55 0.44 0.22 0.11 0.00 0.99 0.99 0.88
4-152
Return
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41
3.27 2.57 2.28 2.11 2.00 1.92 1.86 1.82 1.78 1.74 1.72 1.69 1.67 1.65 1.64 1.62 1.61 1.61 1.59