!

A hands-on guide for modeling,

designing, and leading your
company's next radical innovation
Playbook
FOR STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT AND
Innovation
"
Playbook
Development Team
!"#"$" &"$'()*+
lnnovauon Leadershlp 8oard LLC
unlLed SLaLes
,-''-"# &*./"0+(
loreslghL & lnnovauon
SLanford unlverslLy
unlLed SLaLes
Anm-Iuss| 1ahvana|nen
Lahu School of lnnovauon
LappeenranLa unlverslLy of 1echnology
llnland
Sponsors
1ekes, the I|nn|sh Iund|ng Agency for
1echno|ogy and Innovanon
llnland
Lahn Schoo| of Innovanon
Lappeenranta Un|vers|ty of 1echno|ogy
llnland
art coordination
Laura Me||anen
Lahu School of lnnovauon
LappeenranLa unlverslLy of 1echnology
llnland
Graphic design and layout
1++" 2"-//*+(+
Ankara ueslgn
llnland
Research Partners
Vesa narmaakorp|
Lahu School of lnnovauon
LappeenranLa unlverslLy of 1echnology
llnland
1u|[a C|kar|nen
Lahu School of lnnovauon
LappeenranLa unlverslLy of 1echnology
llnland
Saku I. Mk|nen
lndusLrlal ManagemenL
1ampere unlverslLy of 1echnology
llnland
ekka 8erg
lnnovauon ManagemenL lnsuLuLe
AalLo unlverslLy
llnland
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
2013 1. CarleLon, W. Cockayne, and A. 1ahvanalnen. 1hls work ls made avallable under Lhe Lerms of Lhe Creauve Commons Aurlbuuon-nonCommerclal-ShareAllke 3.0 unporLed Llcense.
#
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
Playbook overview
Welcome to a guide for the
strategic manager, the person
who is responsible for innovation
whether this means fnding the
next market, describing the
future customer, or developing an
amazing team who can reliably take
new visions to new markets.
Benefit to you
1hls playbook addresses Lwo essenual
Loplcs:
- Pow Lo creaLe a radlcal ldea LhaL
becomes a new buslness, producL,
or servlce, and
- Pow Lo bulld an organlzauon LhaL
supporLs Lhe ongolng developmenL
of radlcal ldeas.
lor Lhese Loplcs, we provlde muluple
meLhods and Lechnlques, sLep-by-sLep
lnsLrucuons, ups, examples, case sLudles,
and more. 1he maLerlal ls dlvlded lnLo
muluple chapLers for fasLer learnlng and use.
Strategic focus
We focus on radlcal lnnovauon. Why
radlcal? 8adlcal lnnovauon ls abouL
changlng Lhe magnlLude of your eorL,
elLher ln Lerms of how your organlzauon
approaches lnnovauon or ln Lerms of
Lhe lmpacL you would llke Lo see ln Lhe
markeL. We assume you are serlous abouL
maklng blg changes. MosL cases of radlcal
lnnovauon rely on a breakLhrough ln new
Lechnology, and Lechnology lnvesLmenLs
are oen blg beLs.
How to use it
All Lhe maLerlal ln Lhe playbook
ls deslgned Lo be pracLlcal and
sLralghLforward for Lhe self-gulded
learner. 1hose looklng for qulck
soluLlons can sLarL anywhere. 1hose
looklng Lo bulld an lnLegraLed and
repeaLable pracLlce wlll wanL Lo sLarL
aL Lhe beglnnlng Lo undersLand Lhe
broader framework.
Muluple ready-Lo-use LemplaLes are
provlded as worksheeLs LhaL you can
use dlrecLly, prlnL ouL, or pasLe lnLo
your preferred soware.
WhaL you learn here wlll help you
coach and lnsplre Lhose around you,
as well as advance your own eorLs ln
sLraLeglc foreslghL and lnnovauon.
$
Chapter 1. The Foresight Framework
We introduce a comprehensive framework
that offers a structured approach to fnd
the big idea.

Chapter 2. How to Start
Discover the different types of innovation
paths, people, and industry contexts to
help you start in the right place with the
right mindset.
Chapter 3. Perspective
The Context Map, Progression Curves, and
Janus Cones methods broaden your view
of the problem space, helping you to better
anticipate the future.
Chapter 4. Opportunity
The Generational Arcs, Future User, and
Futuretelling methods identify your future
customers in terms of macro, micro, and
narrative views.
Chapter 5. Solution
The White Spots, Paper Mockups, and
Change Path methods turn your idea into
a tangible artifact and plan.
Chapter 6. Team
The Buddy Checks, VOICE Stars, and
Crowd Clovers methods help you fnd
and keep the right people engaged in your
pursuit of radical innovation.
Chapter 7. Vision
The Vision Statement, DARPA Hard Test,
and Pathfnders methods set the right
organizational vision to direct your teams
efforts.
Appendix
Supporting material includes a list of
readings, suggested data sources, and
other related items.
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
TABLE OF CONTENTS
9
29
58
91
124
165
200
240
%
PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
Context Map
- page 61
Generanona| Arcs
- page 94
Wh|te Spots
- page 127
8uddy Checks
- page 168
V|s|on Statement
- page 203
rogress|on Curves
- page 70
Iuture User
- page 103
aper Mockups
- page 136
VCICL Stars
- page 178
DAkA nard 1est
- page 213
Ianus Cones
- page 81
Iuturete|||ng
- page 114
Change aths
- page 149
Crowd C|overs
- page 188
athhnders
- page 230
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
METHOD SHORTCUTS
&
FUTURE VISION
FOR PAPER
Learn how one
manufacLurlng
company resLarLed
an lnlually unfruluul
plannlng process for lLs
core buslness.
- page 24
10 WORKSHOP
LESSONS FROM
AN INDUSTRY
VETERAN
See whaL works and
whaL doesn'L when
plannlng workshops for
generaung blg ldeas.
- page 33
A SECOND FUTURE
FOR UBICOM
Caln an ln-depLh
look aL updaung Lhe
vlslon for one of
1ekes' largesL and
mosL successful
Lechnology programs.
- page 78
HOW YLE DEFINED
A NEW FORESIGHT
CAPABILITY
lollow one Leam's
progress as Lhey
deslgn a paruclpaLory
model of foreslghL
plannlng.
- page 138
SEEKING
VISIONARIES
AT DARPA
undersLand how
uA8A auracLs a cerLaln
Lype of person for
radlcal lnnovauon
aL a federal agency.
- page 177
PROGRAM
MANAGERS AT DARPA
ulscover Lhe baslc
prole for a uA8A
program manager
behlnd Lhe agency's
unlque eLhos.
- page 187
DARPAS LESSONS
FOR INDUSTRY
Learn seven ways
companles can beneL
from uA8A's long
Lrack record for
success.
- page 197
TECHNOLOGY
VISIONS AT DARPA
8evlew Lwo examples
of blg Lechnology-
drlven vlslons LhaL
are hlgh rlsk and hlgh
reward.
- page 212
THE HEILMEIER
CATECHISM AT DARPA
Learn a well-known
seL of crlLerla LhaL leLs
you LesL lf your group's
vlslon has pracucal
appllcauon.
- page 227
THE ORIGINAL
VISION OF EPCOT
ulscover Lhe real
grand challenge for an
ldeallzed Amerlcan
clLy and how lL was
"uA8A Pard."
- page 228
Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how
various organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning.
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
A variety of case studies
'
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
How to use the playbook
The playbook adopts two simple schemas to help you follow the material
more quickly. The frst schema is a set of colored dots that identify different
types of content. The second schema applies to each methods presentation.
Genera| |nformanon
Method overv|ew, nps,
and other |tems that
requ|re auennon
Annotated d|agrams,
|ns|ghts, and re|ated
mater|a| for suggested
reecnon
Method |nstrucnons
and other |tems that
encourage acnon
Overview
An overvlew page lnLroduces
each meLhod, descrlblng why
lL ls helpful, when Lo use lL,
and whaL you geL.

!"
Context Maps capture the
themes that emerge when
discussing complex problems.



WhEN to use it
- 1o pursue an enurely new area of
"#$#%"&'
- 1o nd group agreemenL on Lhe
lmporLanL aspecLs of a problem
- 1o galn fasL background for a
parucular Loplc
WhY its helpful
A ConLexL Map advances Lhe work of
Lhe usual ldea generauon Lools, such as
bralnsLormlng and mlnd-mapplng. 1he
goal of bralnsLormlng ls Lo generaLe as
many ldeas as posslble, and no focus
ls requlred. ln conLrasL, a ConLexL Map
leLs you begln converglng on Lhe Lop
Lhemes or dlmenslons of a parucular
Loplc or opporLunlLy space.
Why elghL dlmenslons Lo a ConLexL
Map? ?ou have enough Lo capLure Lhe
problem's complexlLy, yeL noL Loo few Lo
lose slghL of whaL ls lmporLanL.
Context Maps
What you get
?ou wlll ldenufy elghL core dlmenslons
of your currenL problem or opporLunlLy
space. 8y knowlng Lhese dlmenslons,
you can ask Lhe rlghL quesuons LhaL, ln
Lurn, prompL a more lnformed search
for promlslng lnnovauon opporLunlues.
Moreover, Lhls meLhod ls an excellenL
lce-breaker for a new Leam Lo sLarL Lhelr
lnnovauon dlscusslons. ConLexL Maps
also provlde rapld reecuon aL pro[ecL
mllesLones.
Example
We walk you Lhrough
an acLual example uslng
Lhe meLhod, showlng a
relaLed dlagram.

Instructions
SLep-by-sLep lnsLrucuons
are provlded, whlch are
Lhen llnked Lo Lhe example
dlagram.
Insights.
We dlscuss how Lo draw
lnslghLs and lmpllcauons
from Lhe meLhod, also
llnked Lo Lhe example.
Tips.
A ups page hlghllghLs
lessons LhaL oLhers have
learned uslng Lhe meLhod
ln dlerenL slLuauons.
Photos.
8eal phoLos wlLh shorL
descrlpuons help show
how dlerenL Leams
have used Lhe meLhod.
Template.
A blank LemplaLe ls
provlded for each
meLhod as worksheeLs for
personal or Leam use.
!"
Lets look at an example
Slr eLer Pall ls an emlnenL 8rlush
scholar who sLudles Lhe hlsLory of urban
plannlng and deslgn. lor Lhe LxC 2000
World Lxhlbluon, Pall and hls colleague
prepared an exLenslve reporL called
urban luLure 21, ln whlch Lhey ouLllne
a global agenda for 21sL cenLury clues.
A unlverslLy sLudenL Leam used
Pall's reporL Lo galn qulck background
for a class pro[ecL. A ma[or auLo
manufacLurer, whlch sponsored Lhe
sLudenLs' pro[ecL, wlshed Lo undersLand
how premlum LransporLauon would
change ln global megaclues.
LacklngknowledgeofLheauLolndusLry,
Lhe sLudenLs used Lhe ConLexL Map as a
concepLual shorLhand Lo geL sLarLed on
Lhelr pro[ecL and also Lo remember Lhe
maln Lhemes of Lhe reporL.
WlLhouL readlng Lhe reporL yourself,
you can look aL Lhe sLudenLs' ConLexL
Map and also know Lhe elghL key
dlmenslons LhaL Pall felL are lmporLanL
Lo a fuLure ldeal clLy.
roducuve
opulauon growLh
uemocrauzauon
lnvenuon
Clean, green,
healLhy & safe
CulLurally vlbranL
Soclally equlLable
Pappy llves
!"#$% '!()
" mpowetloq cluzeos ot locol levels " 5oclol copltol
Source: eLer Pall and ulrlch feler. 2000. utboo lotote 21. A Clobol AqeoJo fot 21st ceototy clues.
!"
Instructions
!" $%&'' () * +&(*, -(./0 (&
(..(&-1)/-2 *&'* 2(1& -'*3
4*)-5 -( .1&51'" 6(1 5'- -7' 50*8'
(9 -(./0" :'&2 +&(*, -(./05 3*2
requlre several lLerauons.
;" <&*4 *) (1-8/)' 9(& * =()-'>- ?*.
(& 15' -7' 4(&@57''- -'3.8*-' /)
-7' .8*2+((@"
A" B-*&- -*8@/)% 4/-7 2(1& -'*3 *+(1-
your Loplc, noung any sallenL
,/3')5/()5 *5 -7'2 *&/5'" C(/)-5
(9 /)-')5' ,/50155/() (& 'D')
,/5*%&''3')- *&' %((, -( /)081,'
/) 2(1& =()-'>- ?*."
E" noLe slde Loplcs and connecuons
*&(1), 2(1& =()-'>- ?*." $-
umes, you may [ump Lo creaLe
a Langenual or dlerenL ConLexL
Map. 1haL ls greaL assoclauon.
F" 8epeaL Lhe process unul your Leam
*&&/D'5 *- * 3*. G(& 5'- (9 3*.5H
-7*- 0*.-1&'5 2(1& .&(+8'3 5.*0'
sausfacLorlly.
-See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
*))(-*-', '>*3.8'" I7' )13+'&5 /)
Lhe lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe
)13+'&5 /) -7' ,/*%&*3"
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teomdiscussion
- wblcb Jlmeosloo JlJ yoo speoJ
tbe most ume Jlscossloq?
- wblcb Jlmeosloo qeoetoteJ tbe
qteotest oombet of poesuoos?
- wblcb Jlmeosloo qeoetoteJ tbe
qteotest oombet of poesuoos
tbot yoo coot ooswet toJoy?
- Afet Jlscossloq os o qtoop, Jo
yoo woot to teJtowtbe cootext
Mop boseJ oo wbot yoo bove
leotoeJ?
!"
Tips & lessons from others
- uraw blg maps, preferably on a
whlLeboard or large lp charL so
everyone can see and commenL on
Lhe varlous dlmenslons easlly.
- uon'L worry abouL keeplng Lhe
elghL dlmenslons aL Lhe same level.
1he maln ob[ecuve ls Lo capLure
whaL ls lmporLanL ln conLexL.
- noLe any relaLed polnLs and
quesuons. Someumes Lhe
quesuons are Lhe mosL lnLeresung
Lo revlslL laLer, when your Leam
undersLands more abouL Lhe
problem space and lssues.
- Conslder generaung a ConLexL Map
from an ouLslder's vlew, such as a
suppller or end user, Lo see how
Lhelr Lop dlmenslons compare Lo
an lnLernal Leam or organlzauonal
perspecuve.
- ?ou can always creaLe more
ConLexL Maps. ?ou may wanL Lo
pause mldway Lhrough one map Lo
creaLe a second map ln order noL
Lo lose your group's conversauon
ow.
- Pang or posL compleLed maps
ln publlc vlew, such as near your
desk. ln Lhls way, you can generaLe
conunuous lnslghLs wlLh oLhers,
as well as encourage addluonal
personal reecuon and lncubauon
abouL Lhe lnnovauon Loplc. !"#$"%&'()
!"#$ &' $"( )*+)+'(, $+)&-.
!"/ ,+ /+0 1#2$ $+ )0*'0( &$.
!"
Additional examples
! #$%&' (&)*+#,' ,-,(.'&)/(* (&#0$)1 +*,2 $
Context Map to rev|ew the|r product poruo||o,
d|scover|ng some |nterna| d|erences |n pr|or|nes.
!) !#,'/($) 0&-/(, 3&'(, (&)*/2,',2 4&5
2,(',$*/)6 *.$., 3+)2* 5&+-2 /#0$(. $ '$)6, &3
future p|ann|ng needs.
789:9;!<= >9==9;:
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/ !"
CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet
!"
Drawing insights &
implications
Aer developlng an lnlual ConLexL
Map, Lhe sLudenL Leam reallzed LhaL
populauon growLh and producuvlLy
were only Lwo measuremenLs for Lhe
fuLure developmenL of mega-clues. CLher
lnLanglble and quallLauve aspecLs, such as
personal happlness and culLural vlbrancy,
are essenual Lo clLy dwellers. 1hls lnslghL
changedLhelr approachLodaLa collecuon,
and Lhey now looked for a broader seL of
measures.
1he Leam declded Lo Lake Lhelr ConLexL
Maps anoLher sLep furLher. 8ased on a
deeper llLeraLure revlew, Lhey developed
a llsL of Lhe elghL prlmary facLors LhaL
dene a healLhy clLy. 1hey used Lhese
elghL facLors as Lhe basellne for a ConLexL
MapLoasses Lhe LopmeLropollLanreglons
around Lhe world. 1hey color coded each
dlmenslon (or ower peLal) ln Lhe ConLexL
Map based on Lhe poLenual lmpacL of
change expecLed ln Lhe nexL 20 years.
ln oLher words, Lhe clues all shared Lhe
same dlmenslons buL showed dlerenL
color comblnauons.
uslng sub[ecuve ranklngs, Lhe sLudenLs
made a dlmenslon green for low change,
an orange dlmenslon lndlcaLed moderaLe
change, and a red dlmenslon showed
hlgh change. Aer Lhls exerclse, Lhe Leam
reallzedanoLher lnslghL: none of Lhe meLro
reglons had Lhe same color mapplng for
change. All Lhe clues had a dlerenL color
comblnauon, whlch ralsed new quesuons
abouL Lhe value of a generlc model for
urban growLh. 1he Leam Lhen broughL
more enllghLened quesuons back Lo Lhelr
pro[ecL sponsor.
(
looovouoo coo be systemoucolly moooqeJ
lf ooe koows wbete ooJ bow to look.
- !"#"$ &$'()"$, ptofessot of moooqemeot
(notvotJ 8osloess kevlew, Iooe 1985)
1be ooly woy to Jlscovet tbe llmlts of tbe posslble
ls to qo beyooJ tbem loto tbe lmposslble.
- *$#+'$ ,- ,./$)", scleoce fcuoo wtltet
("ltofles of tbe lotote", 1977)
9
FORESIGHT FRAMEwork
ChaptER 1
Shortcuts
Foresight Framework 10
Five planning phases 11
Two guiding principles 14
The methodology 15
Underlying theories 18
An integrated system 21
Case study: Paper 24
!"
What do you need to do
to plan your next big idea?
!"#$ &"'()*+ ,#-- .*) /01 $)'+)*23 4) ,'-5$
you Lhrough Lhe ve plannlng phases ln Lhe
loreslghL lramework, whlch are deslgned
Lo ldenufy and assess new Lechnologles,
anuclpaLe Lhe currenL and emerglng needs
of your fuLure cusLomers, and address
complex problems as qulckly, creauvely,
and as sysLemaucally as posslble.
1he ve phases bulld on each oLher:
6 hase I: erspecnve $"0,$ /01
how Lo develop a long clear vlew
based on pauerns of hlsLory.
6 !"#$% ''( )**+,-./0-1 explores new
promlslng opporLunlues.
6 hase III: So|unon 71#-2$ '
workable proLoLype for a fuLure
soluuon.
6 !"#$% '2( 3%#4 '22+*$$*$ )"*
LalenL behlnd your blg ldea.
6 !"#$% 2( 20$0+/ focuses on
composlng and communlcaung Lhe
lnnovauon vlslon LhaL wlll gulde all
fuLure acuons.
The Foresight Framework
1he loreslghL lramework Lakes an
acuon-orlenLed sLance, focuslng on very
pracucal, hands-on Lools. ?ou wlll learn
how Lo use muluple meLhods as bulldlng
blocks for your lnnovauon plannlng,
whlch wlll help you move gradually from
Lhe blg plcLure Lo a speclc plan of acuon.
1hls model was developed by Wllllam
Cockayne and 1amara CarleLon ln Slllcon
valley and has been LesLed and valldaLed
wlLh organlzauons around Lhe world.
Cnce you've masLered Lhese meLhods,
you can sLarL aL any polnL ln Lhe process
and comblne Lhem as needed.

!!
Five planning phases
L8SLC1lvL CC81unl1? SCLu1lCn 1LAM vlSlCn
The Foresight Framework is
composed of fve phases that
guide innovation planning and
action.
Phase I: Perspective
We sLarL wlLh erspecuve, so you
undersLand whaL's been done before ln
your organlzauon or lndusLry. erspecuve
ls focused on long-Lerm sLraLegy, whaL
you mlghL conslder as Lhree or more 8&u
cycles ouL ln Lhe fuLure for your group.
Phase II: Opportunity
ln Lhe nexL phase of CpporLunlLy,
you develop an ablllLy Lo see growLh
opporLunlues LhaL exlsL Loday and
exLend lnLo Lhe fuLure. LorLs durlng
Lhls phase oen fall under research and
developmenL.
Phase III: Solution
uurlng Lhe Lhlrd phase, you dene your
soluuon's paLh Lo lnnovauon. 1hls phase
ls abouL proLoLyplng your lnnovauon
ldea and undersLandlng whaL you musL
bulld Loday Lo reallze your deslred
fuLure.
Phase IV: Team
Cnce you've ouLllned your soluuon,
you now need Lo nd more parLners
and Leam members. noL only wlll Lhese
people hearuly embrace your vlslon, Lhey
wlll coordlnaLe and supporL Lhe crlucal
deLalls of execuuon.
Phase V: Vision
As a Leam, you wlll need Lo develop a
sLrong vlslon LhaL wlll gulde everyone's
acuons forward Lo success.

Ao eosy woy to temembet tbe fve pboses
ls to koow tbot, toqetbet, tbey qlve yoo o
lO51v (posluve) potb to tbe fotote.
!"
ulerenL organlzauons wlll use dlerenL
Lerms Lo descrlbe Lhese ve phases,
such as: SLraLeglc lannlng, ulscovery,
Lnvlslonlng, ueslgn 1hlnklng, new
1echnology Soluuons, and more. Whlch
Lerms does your organlzauon prefer?
Also, Lhere ls no seL ume perlod
for each phase because Lhe durauon
depends on your lndusLry, organlzauon,
and opporLunlLy. A Lyplcal lnnovauon
horlzon encompasses everyLhlng from
concepL Lo launch, and as you know from
experlence, Lhere are few shorLcuLs Lo
lnnovauon.
1hese ve phases wlll glve you a handle
LhroughouL Lhe lnnovauon plannlng
horlzon for long-Lerm, mld-Lerm, and
shorL-Lerm needs.
Source: !ullen vaysslere, 2012
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
!#
The ambiguity curve
AlLhough Lhe Lhree plannlng phases Lend
Lo overlap ln real llfe, each phase lnvolves a
dlsuncL seL of acuvlues wlLhln Lhe broader
llfecycle of long-range lnnovauon.
Cen Lhe sLarL of Lhe process has
Lhe hlghesL amblgulLy for users. 1hls ls
when Lhe mosL number of quesuons
and unknowns exlsL. As Lhe lnnovauon
process progresses, paruclpanLs galn
more answers, whlch leads Lo a sLeady
(and oen comforung) drop ln amblgulLy.
A
M
8
l
C
u
l
1
?
1lML





































!
m
b
l g
u
l L y Cur "e
A perlod of hlgh amblgulLy!
kLILLC1ICN
0+"$" 12'.3 42' 5'# 42'$6".7
28 #+" *9:;<';#4 ,'$=">
!$
Two guiding principles
Principle #1
What you foresee
is what you get
eople who belleve LhaL Lhey can change
Lhe world already possess a long-Lerm
vlslon of change. 1he lndlvlduals who
make a dlerence ln Lhe world are
proacuve aL hearL, llnklng Lhlnklng and
dolng. ln oLher words, lf you can lmaglne
an lmproved fuLure sLaLe, you can llkely
make lL happen. Llke an aLhleLe, lf you
can plcLure yourself wlnnlng Lhe race, you
wlll lncrease your chances Lo reallze Lhe
ouLcome you wanL.
Principle #2
You cant put off
tomorrow
rocrasunauon does noL sLop Lhe fuLure
from happenlng. Slmllar Lo Lhe common
phrase on a car's sldevlew mlrror: Cb[ecLs
ln Lhe mlrror are closer Lhan Lhey appear.
1he fuLure Lakes ume Lo bulld, and each
day ls an opporLunlLy Lo reecL on and
plan for Lhe nexL day. 8y learnlng dlerenL
meLhods of foreslghL and lnnovauon
sLraLegy, you can en[oy more of Lhe ume
you have Loday and also ensure a brlghLer
Lomorrow.
!%
The methodology
PHASE I: PERSPECTIVE
erspecuve glves you a broad frame of reference,
holdlng up a mlrror Lo Lhe pasL so you may beuer
anuclpaLe Lhe fuLure.
Context Maps
ldenufy Lhe
maln dlmenslons
of your currenL
problem or
opporLunlLy
space.
- page 61
rogress|on
Curves puL
evenL umellnes,
lndusLry llfe-
cycles, and oLher
developmenLs ln
conLexL.
- page 70
Ianus Cones
leL you Lo vlew
muluple, over-
lapplng, and
lnLersecung
evenLs ln a slngle
framework.
- page 81
Generanona|
Arcs vlews Lhe
demographlc
changes and
generauonal
vlews of a LargeL
populauon.
- page 94
Iuture User
proles your
fuLure cusLomer
based on whaL
wlll (and wlll noL)
change from
Loday's cusLomer.
- page 103
Iuturete|||ng
uses llve LheaLer
Lo lllusLraLe
a parucular
user need as a
reallsuc scene
from Lhe fuLure.
- page 114
PHASE II: OPPORTUNITY
1he second phase develops an ablllLy Lo see growLh
opporLunlues LhaL exlsL Loday and exLend lnLo Lhe
fuLure by undersLandlng fuLure cusLomer changes.
!&
PHASE III: SOLUTION
1he Lhlrd phase seeks Lo dene Lhe quesuons LhaL
exlsL along dlerenL paLhs Lo lnnovauon, whlch are
speclc Lo your lndusLry, cusLomers, organlzauon, and
Leam skllls.
Wh|te Spots
nds hldden
markeLs and
provldes a
broad look aL
Lhe compeuLor
landscape.
- page 127
aper Mockups
creaLe Langlble
models of your
ldeas LhaL you
can LesL aL low
cosL for hlgh
learnlng value.
- page 136
Change aths
ploL Lhe ma[or
mllesLones LhaL
you wlll need
Lo achleve on
your paLh Lo
acLlon.
- page 149
8uddy Checks
helps you nd
good poLenual
maLches for
more parLners
and LeammaLes.
- page 168
VCICL Stars
ldenues your
Leam's apuLude
for radlcal
lnnovauon
leadershlp.
- page 178
Crowd C|overs
helps you map
your Leam's
lnnovauon
neLwork Lo brlng
your ldea Lo llfe.
- page 188
A speclc
lLerauon ls Lhe
Dark norse
3$*)*)04(.
- page 143
PHASE IV: TEAM
1he fourLh phase focuses on ndlng Lhe LalenL and
leadershlp your Leam needs Lo Lake an ldea forward as
a new lnnovauon.
!'
PHASE V: VISION
1he h phase sharpens your Leam's vlslon so LhaL lL
may Lake on a llfe of lLs own and gulde everyone's acuons
forward.
1he V|s|on
Statement
helps you
Lell your ldea
as a clear
and conclse
summary.
- page 203
1he 51231
nard 1est
measures
Lhe vlslonary
poLenual of your
Leam's radlcal
lnnovauon.
- page 213
athhnders
deLermlnes
an ldea's
besL paLh
Lhrough your
organlzauon or
neLwork.
- page 230
!(
Underlying theories
1hls playbook dellberaLely focuses on Lhe
appllcauon of Lhe meLhods for radlcal
lnnovauon. All hlsLorlcal and Lheoreucal
deLalls have been lnLenuonally omlued,
so Lhe playbook feels more llke a hands-
on workbook and less llke a LexLbook.
lor Lhose who llke Lo undersLand Lhe
Lheoreucal underplnnlngs, all Lhe meLhods
have been lnsplred or re-comblned from
Lhe besL ln buslness sLraLegy, lndusLrlal
8&u, fuLure sLudles, cusLomer experlence,
deslgn, and oLher relaLed elds. lL provldes
a robusL handbook for Lhe Lacucs,
Lechnlques, and procedures you wlll need
Lo develop your lnnovauon ldea and Leam.
1he ad[acenL Lable brley explalns
how Lhe meLhods here relaLe Lo exlsung
Lechnlques and Lools.
Method ke|ated too|s & techn|ques Cur un|que beneht
Context Maps
> 8ralnsLormlng
> Mlnd mapplng
8eLalns complexlLy of Loplc,
whlle beglnnlng Lo converge
on prlorlLy areas
rogress|on
Curves
> S-curves
(Lechnology adopuon)
> PlsLorlcal umellnes
ConnecLs muluple relaLed
evenLs and hlghllghLs
precedenLs
Ianus Cones
> Cones of uncerLalnLy
> Mllleu sLudles
uncovers lndlrecL lnuences
and evenLs wlLhln an era
Generanona|
Arcs
> opulauon analyucs
(demographlcs)
> Cenerauonal research
ldenues relevanL populauon
group and shared values
Iuture User
> user personas
> volce of Lhe cusLomer"
exerclses
> need-ndlng
uescrlbes fuLure user needs
wlLhouL exLrapolaung blases
from Loday's users
19
Method ke|ated too|s & techn|ques Cur un|que beneht
Iuture-te|||ng
> SLoryLelllng
> Lxperlenual deslgn
> use cases
> 8ole-playlng
Conveys nonverbal and
conLexLual deLalls abouL a
fuLure use case
Wh|te Spots
> CrowLh-share maLrlx
(8CC maLrlx)
> 8lue ocean sLraLegy
ueLermlnes fuLure focus of
opporLunlLy Lhrough lLerauve
lLers
aper Mockups
> roducL proLoLyplng
(low dellLy)
> Scale models
(maqueues)
roduces sysLem models LhaL
dlsplay Lhe lnLeracuons and
relaLed componenLs
Dark norse
> CuL-of-box Lhlnklng
8eseLs ldea back Lo essenual
core lnnovauon
Change aths
> 8ackcasung
> SLraLeglc lnecuon
polnLs
rlorluzes Lop declslons based
on dlrecL paLh Lo deslred fuLure
")
Method ke|ated too|s & techn|ques Cur un|que beneht
8uddy Checks
> SLarLup speed daung
> 8ole-playlng
LesL you qulckly lLer promlslng
lnnovauon parLners and
LeammaLes
VCICL Stars
> 1-shaped people
> Career plannlng LesLs
> Creauve leadershlp
proles
uescrlbes Lhe mlx of LralLs
needed for radlcal lnnovauon
leadershlp
Crowd C|overs
> Soclal neLwork mapplng
> Weak ues
> Collaborauve lnnovauon
neLwork (Coln)
ldenues Lhe Lypes of relauon-
shlps requlred for fosLerlng a
culLure of lnnovauon
V|s|on
Statement
> SLarL-up elevaLor plLches
> Mlsslon sLaLemenLs
rovldes a slmple formula Lo
Lell a fuLure vlslon
51231
nard 1est
> 1echnology readlness
scales
LvaluaLes fuLure vlslon ln Lerms
of lLs breakLhrough poLenual
athhnders
> Wayndlng
> uluslon of lnnovauon
> knowledge acuvlsLs
CharLs Lhe mosL emclenL
success paLh for an lnnovauon
ldea Lhrough an organlzauon
"!
All Lhe meLhods are deslgned Lo lnLegraLe
LogeLher as a compleLe, comprehenslve,
and coherenL sysLem. 1hlnk of creaung a
bulldlng by brlnglng Lhe blocks LogeLher
wlLh Lhe rlghL L.
SysLems Lhlnkers-Lhose who approach
problems as lnLer-relaLed parLs of an overall
sysLem-parucularly en[oy undersLandlng
how Lhe varlous meLhods work LogeLher
and lnuence one anoLher as a whole.
1he meLhods can be layered on Lop of
one anoLher ln Lerms of umlng, lnLenL,
and Lheme. 8y layerlng, you can see how
Lhe dlerenL elemenLs complemenL and
exLend from one anoLher. 1hls approach
also allows you Lo see Lhe complexlLy of
your lnnovauon ldea.
1he !anus Cones meLhod provldes
Lhe underlylng basellne of ume for all
Lhe oLher Lools, and Lhe cenLer of lL
vlsually marks Loday. MeLhods ln hase
l focus on revlewlng pasL developmenLs,
so users work on Lhe le slde of Lhe
!anus Cones. 1hen meLhods ln hase
ll connecL Loday's knowledge Lo fuLure
expecLauons, so users begln Lo cross
lnLo Lhe rlghL slde of Lhe !anus Cones.
8y hase lll, users work enurely ln Lhe
fuLure, whlch ls capLured on Lhe rlghL
slde of Lhe !anus Cones.
1haL sald, wlLhouL seelng Lhe varlous
meLhods ln acuon, Lhls lnLegrauon may
sound bewllderlng. We wlll show you
how Lhe meLhods L LogeLher, as well as
Lhelr placemenL ln Lhe overall sysLem,
Lhrough Lhe nexL seL of chapLers.
?ou may wlsh Lo revlslL Lhls secuon Lo
see how you can llnk some or all of Lhe
foreslghL meLhods LogeLher. Advanced
users oen Lake Lhe nexL sLep, dlsplaylng
Lhe progress of Lhelr ldeas on large lp
charLs and wall posLers for lnpuL and
reecuon from Lhe communlLy. ln many
cases, Lhlnklng blg requlres drawlng blg.
An integrated system
""
2012 Wllllam Cockayne & 1amara CarleLon
"#
ln addluon, many of Lhe meLhods
work well as sub-seLs. Some posslble
comblnauons lnclude:
1he rogresslon Curves meLhod, whlch
addresses Lhe evoluuon of varlous evenLs,
may be eecuvely comblned wlLh Lhe
!anus Cones meLhod, whlch provldes a
broader mapplng of colncldlng hlsLorlcal
evenLs.
1he Cenerauonal Arcs meLhod Lakes
a meLa vlew of generauonal changes,
whlle Lhe luLure user meLhod Lakes a
mlcro vlew of lndlvldual dlerences.
8y comblnlng Lhe Lwo meLhods, Lhe
lndlvldual can Lhen be placed wlLhln hls
or her generauonal conLexL.
1he luLure user meLhod may be
comblned wlLh Lhe luLureLelllng meLhod
Lo make Lhe lnslghLs more lnLeracuve and
Langlble.
1he dlmenslons ldenued ln Lhe ConLexL
Maps exerclse provlde a fasL way Lo
deLermlne Lhe axes ln Lhe WhlLe SpoLs
meLhod.
?our luLure user should exlsL ln Lhe vlslon
you dene ln Lhe WhlLe SpoLs meLhod, and
you should see Lhe person's anuclpaLed
needs reecLed ln your analysls.
1he soluuon embodled ln Lhe aper
Mockups meLhod should exlsL elLher
along Lhe way or aL Lhe end polnL of a
Change aLh.
1he opporLunlLy ln Lhe WhlLe SpoLs
meLhod can be llnked wlLh Lhe Change
aLhs meLhod, showlng Lhe speclc sLeps
leadlng up Lo a deslred fuLure.
"$
Leanlng back ln her omce chalr, Anna
enrose (a pseudonym) reecLed on
her laLesL challenge wlLh mlxed feellngs.
Several weeks ago, she had agreed Lo
lead a new Lask force aL her company, a
leader ln Lhe pulp and paper lndusLry.
8espondlng Lo Lhe growlng lnLeresL ln
cleaner and more susLalnable paper
producuon pracuces from cusLomers and
suppllers, her company's Lask force had
Lhe ambluous Lask Lo rework Lhe long-
Lerm sLraLegy of lLs core buslness of paper.
Pow could Lhey reLhlnk paper? aper
was a classlc example of a mass produced,
resource-lnLenslve, and ulLra-convenuonal
commodlLy LhaL LhwarLed posluve
envlronmenLal brandlng. MosL workers and
consumers were drlven Lo mlnlmlze paper
consumpuon, maxlmlze recycled conLenL
and also had blgger needs on Lhelr mlnd aL
work and home.
Pence, enrose knew Lhey needed
Lo reach ouL Lo Lhe users and change
Lhelr percepuons abouL paper. A bold
challenge.
How should my team begin?
1o succeed ln reachlng ouL Lo Lhe user,
enrose declded Lhe Leam's focus was
on lmprovlng Lhe fuLure envlronmenLal
communlcauon abouL paper. enrose and
Lwo of her colleagues narrowed down Lhe
Lask Lo Lhe Lhree mosL lmporLanL guldlng
quesuons:
- Are Lhere new ways of
communlcaung Lhe envlronmenLal
frlendllness of paper?
- lf so, whaL Lype of messages would
resonaLe mosL wlLh whlch groups?
- Pow should Lhe company convey
Lhe messages as parL of Lhelr fuLure
buslness?
An eco-consclous communlcauon
sLraLegy would forufy Lhe company's
brand and boosL Lhe compeuuveness
of Lhe company's key producL. Whlle
enrose felL condenL LhaL Lhe company
was already golng ln Lhe rlghL dlrecuon ln
lLs general communlcauon, she was sure
Lhere was much room for speclc fuLure
lmprovemenLs. Per key concern was Lo
CASE STUDY | Future vision for paper

make sure LhaL Lhe nal proposal would
address lssues LhaL really mauered Lo
Lhelr cusLomers and oLher sLakeholders
ouLslde Lhe company.
How do we introduce new
methods in radical
innovation?
enrose recrulLed Lwo colleagues Lo plan
Lhe nexL sLeps because Lhey were already
famlllar wlLh Lhe lloybooks lnnovauon
meLhods. 1hey would use Lhe meLhods Lo
sLrucLure a broader group ldeauon. arL
of Lhelr phllosophy was Lo elevaLe Lhe
usual dlscusslons around fuLure buslness
communlcauon by lnLroduclng a new seL
of meLhods LhaL would serve as a neuLral
shared plauorm for lnnovauve Leamwork
and prompL more ouL-of-box Lhlnklng.
lnsLead of a Lyplcal bralnsLorm, Lhe
Leam planned a foreslghL workshop Lo
bulld shared awareness and commlLmenL
around Lhe Loplc. 1hey wanLed Lo lnclude
and allgn dlverse perspecuves across
dlerenL dlvlslons, so Lhey lnvlLed 16
"%
dlrecLors, managers and experLs from
Lechnlcal cusLomer supporL, sales,
communlcauons, and producuon.
Lveryone had a dlerenL background and
worked ln a dlerenL buslness unlL buL was
parL of Lhe same value chaln LhaL served Lhe
same cusLomers. ln a slx-hour workshop,
enrose hoped Lo galn a poruollo of new
ldeas LhaL could be carrled forward lnLo
furLher developmenL and, evenLually, lnLo
lmplemenLauon.

How can we set the right
focus and still embrace
ambiguity?
ln Lhe workshop, Lhe Lask force seL a loose
ob[ecuve Lo lmprove Lhe envlronmenLal
communlcauon of paper", whlch Lhey
hoped would encourage creauve
freedom. Powever, Lhe plan seemed Lo
backre.
lnsLead of creauve freedom, paruclpanLs
wanLed dened focused quesuons Lo gulde
Lhelr ldeauon. 1hey were uncomforLable
wlLh Lhe hlgh level of amblgulLy common
Lo many early-sLage lnvesugauons.
1o add Lo Lhe challenges, paruclpanL
Leams each ldenued a dlerenL LargeL
group, whlch creaLed more amblgulLy.
1hey auempLed Lo hug Lhe enure world,"
sald one faclllLaLor. Slnce Lhe plannlng Leam
dld noL provlde demographlc or user daLa
ln advance, paruclpanLs relled on personal
experlences abouL Lhelr respecuve LargeL
groups Lo develop luLure user proles.
1he fuzzy yleld of Lhe process dlscouraged
many paruclpanLs. WlLhouL a clear prole
of Lhe LargeL group, Leams sLruggled Lo
develop compelllng vlslons and fuLure use
scenarlos wlLh Lhe Cenerauonal Arcs and
luLure user meLhods. 1hey saw llule value
ln scrlpung a scenarlo LhaL would explore a
fuLure cusLomer's behavlor and lnLeracuon
ln conLexL wlLh paper. Moreover, many
had been Lechnlcally Lralned, so Lhey were
confounded wlLh a user-cenLrlc approach.
1he use of unfamlllar and very analyuc
Lools was anoLher challenge Lo Lhe experLs
who were used Lo close ln on problems
uslng pracucal, hands-on approaches.
enrose made an lnLerlm noLe Lo follow
up on Lhe luLure user proles aL a laLer
daLe. She would lnvlLe represenLauve
cusLomers Lo Lhe dlscusslon Lo help reseL
everyone's undersLandlng of currenL needs
before anuclpaung fuLure needs. lnvolvlng
key sLakeholders from ouLslde Lhe
company would have redlrecLed lnLernal
blases and lnfused more cusLomer-drlven
Lhlnklng lnLo Lhe ldeauon sesslons. 1he
paruclpanLs would have learned rsLhand
whaL cusLomers appreclaLe and demand ln
Lerms of envlronmenLal communlcauon.
Aer several unproducuve auempLs aL
denlng Lhe user of Lhe fuLure, enrose's
Leam proceeded Lo Lhe WhlLe SpoLs
meLhod. uesplLe eagerly experlmenung
wlLh dlerenL dlmenslons Lo anchor Lhelr
analysls, paruclpanLs sLarLed Lo look for
oLher famlllar concepLs Lo borrow from
agaln. ln Lhe face of amblgulLy creaLed by
Lhe lack of a clearly dened LargeL group,
Lhey converged on soluuons LhaL were noL
parucularly lnnovauve or well-dened. 1he
dlscusslon had shled from addresslng Lhe
raLher amblguous orlglnal Lhree quesuons
Lo explorlng more Langlble and easy Lo
approach Lechnologlcal soluuons for
"&
conveylng new communlcauon messages.
ln Lhe end, enrose felL Lhe generaLed
ldeas remalned vague and gave llule Lo
esLabllshlng lmplemenLable acuons.
LxhausLed and looklng aL mlsdlrecLed
ldeas, enrose's Leam declded Lo end
Lhe workshop early. locuslng on Lhe
posluve, Lhe day had helped spawn
many dlscusslons LhaL ln Lurn had led Lo
unexpecLed ldea splllovers wlLh greaL
poLenual Lo be developed furLher, such
as adopung prlnclples of gamlcauon and
resLrucLurlng lnLernal processes for cllenL
monlLorlng and daLa collecuon. ulrecLed
properly, maybe everyone could expand
Lhese concepLs ln llghL of envlronmenLal
promouon.
How do we restart if our
first group discussions are
uninspiring?
Aer an honesL debrlef, Lhe Lask force
declded Lo organlze a second workshop
several weeks laLer as a more sLrucLured
deep dlve. enrose felL glvlng paruclpanLs
Loo much leeway resulLed ln overly long
and unproducuve debaLes abouL Lhe
pro[ecL's focus and conLexL. A balance
was needed beLween enabllng creauvlLy
and demandlng producuvlLy. More
lmporLanLly, a well-dened challenge
would provlde a sLrong foundauon for
developlng lnnovauve soluuons wlLh
subsLance. Whlle Lhe fuLure may oen be
fuzzy, she dldn'L wanL fuzzy plans.
1hls ume, Lhe workshop ob[ecuve was
clearly dened: her Leam of faclllLaLors
selecLed Lhe mosL lnLeresung Loplc leads
from Lhe rsL workshop and prepared
quesuons lnLended Lo focus Leams.
aruclpanLs were Lasked Lo provlde deLall,
depLh and acuonablllLy Lo Lhese Loplcs.
ln addluon, Lhe second workshop had
a dlerenL mlx of paruclpanLs wlLh an
emphasls on cusLomer communlcauons
experLs. enrose hoped Lhe new volces
would add fresh perspecuve.
8ased on posluve prlor experlences,
paruclpanLs were organlzed accordlng Lo
Lhe World Cafe concepL, a meLhodology
for eecuvely faclllLaung large group
dlalogue ln a very llmlLed amounL of ume.
Lach Leam dlscussed one of Lhe chosen
Loplcs. ln a rsL 20-mlnuLe round, each
Leam responded Lo a seL of glven quesuons
Lo esh ouL Lhelr respecuve Loplc wlLh
deLalls. Aer Lhe round, all buL one
member of each Leam swlLched Lo anoLher
Lable Lo form new groups. 1he remalnlng
member played Lhe role of Lhe Lable hosL,
updaung her new Leam on Lhe resulLs of
Lhe rsL round. 1he new Leam members
commenLed on Lhe prlor work and Lhen
collaboraLed for anoLher 20 mlnuLes on
Lhe Loplc. Mlxlng Leams beLween rounds
was lnLended Lo boosL group sharlng,
recomblnlng, and valldaung lndlvldual
ldeas, lLerauvely bulldlng on Lhe resulLs
of Lhe prevlous round. 1he Leams Lhen
reshuMed agaln Lo repeaL Lhe process,
before openly presenung Lhe resulLs Lo
everyone.
1o conclude Lhe workshop wlLh Langlble
ouLpuL, Lhe faclllLaLors asked Lhe Leams
Lo scrlpL sLorles based on Lhe group
presenLauons. 1he sLorles were used
as an alLernauve Lo luLure 1elllng and
proLoLyplng wlLh aper Mockups and uark
"'
Porse roLoLypes. ln Lhls sense, Lhe sLorles
were narrauve proLoLypes of Lhe Leam
vlslons ln a real-world semng. enrose
collecLed Lhe sLorles and Lhanked everyone
for Lhelr lnpuL. lL was now up Lo her Leam
Lo lnLegraLe Lhe sLorles lnLo Lhelr plannlng.
How can we turn
experiences into lessons?
enrose leaned forward ln her chalr and
focused on Lhe plle of sLorles occupylng
Lhe far corner of her desk. now, several
monLhs aer Lhe workshops, she was
able Lo assess Lhelr ouLcome more clearly.
1he sLorles helped Lrap paruclpanLs'
bellefs and assumpuons abouL whaL
was lmporLanL Lo Lhem. 1he workshops
also helped generaLe seedllngs of ldeas
LhaL could Lurn lnLo acuon. lor lnsLance,
Lhe communlcauon channels beLween
producuon, sales, and cusLomers had
clearly seen lmprovemenLs, lncludlng
more cusLomer-frlendly l1 soluuons
wlLh beuer responslveness Lo cusLomer
feedback and lmproved capablllues Lo
collecL and lnLerpreL lL. Cne cusLomer
lnformauon sysLem was undergolng
changes Lo more eecuvely LargeL
Lhe communlcauon of envlronmenLal
messages.
AlLhough enrose dld noL galn lnnovauve
new ldeas for Lhe acLual conLenL of Lhe
company's envlronmenLal communlcauon
as hoped, she felL LhaL Lhe currenL
lmprovemenLs ln Lhe cusLomer lnLerface
would resulL ln feedback LhaL could lead
Lo fuLure conLenL opporLunlues-conLenL
LhaL would be deslgned ln co-operauon
wlLh cusLomers.
ln hlndslghL, enrose wlshed she had seL
paruclpanLs' expecLauons beuer abouL Lhe
challenges lnherenL ln long-range plannlng.
uenlng clear ob[ecuves was one lesson
learned. She also knew lL was dangerous
Lo rely solely on personal assumpuons
abouL Lhe sLaLe of Lhlngs, whlch may cause
groups Lo mlss larger pauerns or lnvenL
wlLhouL conLexL. lor fuLure meeungs,
her Leam would prepare more real-world
daLa as lnpuL for Lhe meLhods, as well as
encourage ume aer Lhe workshop Lo
valldaLe and supplemenL Leam guesses.
A nal lmporLanL learnlng was LhaL a
fuLure challenge could noL be solved"
ln any slngle meeung. lnsLead, enrose's
experlences remlnded her LhaL Lhe new
lnnovauon meLhods were useful Lo
sLrucLure long-Lerm group collaborauon
around complex problems. ulscusslons
would need Lo be carrled forward, as her
Leam galned more lnslghL and advanced
Lhelr own Lhlnklng. ln Lhe splrlL of Lhe
Loplc, she also needed Lo conslder her
fuLure communlcauon wlLh dlerenL
sLakeholders, boLh lnLernal and exLernal,
abouL Lhe progress of Lhls forward-looklng
lnluauve.
WlLh Lhese LhoughLs ln mlnd, enrose
plcked up Lhe sLorles from her desk and
walked ouL of her omce. 1here sull was
a loL of unreallzed poLenual preserved
ln Lhe plle of paper Lucked under her
arm. 1hls only meanL LhaL her work was
far from nlshed. enrose smlled as she
deLermlnedly walked down Lhe corrldor.
She and her Leam had people Lo exclLe,
and she would wln Lhem over one aL a
ume, sLarung Loday.
"(
we ote wbot we tblok.
All tbot we ote otlses wltb oot tbooqbts.
wltb oot tbooqbts we moke tbe wotlJ.
- ?'33+/, loJloo spltltool teocbet
(1be ubommopoJo, c. J00 8c)
5tott wbete yoo ote. ulstoot felJs olwoys look
qteeoet, bot oppottoolty lles tlqbt wbete yoo ote.
- @2:"$# ,2..;"$, foooJet of colllet lobllcouoos
(1be low of tbe nlqbet loteouol, 1947)
29
HOW TO START
ChaptER 2
Shortcuts
Lets start with questions 30
Why a playbook 31
Some defnitions 35
Types of growth 36
Finding inspiration 38
Who leads change 39
Which industries 41
Viewpoint: Revisionist 42
Sample problems 43
Learning process 45
Specifc objectives 47
Starting midway 49
Teams or alone 51
Finding data 52
Case study: 10 lessons 53
#)
With the basic framework in mind,
how should you begin approaching
your group's innovation process?
We provlde some baslc polnLers on how
Lo use lL ln your lnnovauon work. 1hls
chapLer serves more as a conclse lAC aL
Lhe sLarL of your own plannlng process,
drawlng from Lhe quesuons oLher
lnnovauon managers commonly ask us.
llrsL, we explaln why we call lL a
playbook. laybooks are used ln many
sporLs, and we conslder lnnovauon as a
compeuuve sporL LhaL requlres consLanL
Leam Lralnlng and preparauon. 1hen
sllghLly Longue ln cheek, we glve Lhe
skepucs 10 valld reasons noL Lo use Lhe
playbook. We only wanL readers who wlll
maLch lnsplrauon wlLh persplrauon.
We also descrlbe Lhree paLhs Lo
lnnovauon ln an organlzauon, namely:
core growLh, new growLh, and emerglng
Lets start with questions
growLh. 1hese paLhs wlll help deLermlne
Lhe value and lmpacL you wanL Lo see
over ume.
We Lhen ouLllne several common roles
and lndusLry conLexLs for lnnovauon
eorLs, suggesung speclc ways each
role can galn Lhe mosL beneL wlLh Lhe
meLhods.
So you can geL a sense of Lhe meLhods
ln acuon, several acLual appllcauons and
problems are presenLed.
Aer readlng Lhls chapLer, Lurn Lo
ChapLers 3, 4, and 3 Lo dlrecLly address Lhe
ouLpuL and Lhe naLure of ldea you would
llke Lo pursue. 1hen rely on ChapLers 6
and 7 Lo focus on Lhe underlylng process
and mlndseL LhaL allows Lhese Lypes of
ldeas Lo ourlsh repeaLedly.
#!
ln sporLs, a playbook ls a noLebook
conLalnlng Lhe descrlpuons and dlagrams
of all Lhe posslble plays and sLraLegles
used by a Leam. ALhleLes sLudy and
memorlze Lhe playbook before Lhelr
season beglns.
Slmllarly, lnnovauon ln an organlzauon
requlres a hlgh-performance Leam Lo
work seamlessly LogeLher Lo dellver on
a new ldea. Where do you go for your
coachlng? lor your Lralnlng and ups?
lollowlng Lhe splrlL of Lhls sporLs
analogy, Lhls playbook ls your resource Lo
help coach you and for you Lo learn how
Lo coach oLhers ln radlcal lnnovauon.
1hls playbook ls deslgned for you, as
Lhey say ln sporLs, Lo Lake Lhe eld. MosL
lmporLanLly, lL ls deslgned Lo be doable.
AnoLher aspecL of a playbook ls
abouL learnlng Lhrough play. lay ls
oen overlooked or dlsmlssed when
lnnovaung, and a sense of creauvlLy and
fun ls requlred Lo release lnhlbluons and
see Lhlngs ln a fresh llghL.
Why a playbook?
#"
A
B
@
"
/
62
8
6 C
2
# #2
D
6"
E
+
;6 !
./
4
:
2
2
)
1
.
o
o
w
lll o
o
t f
o
J
o
slo
q
le teo
J
y-to
-o
se lJ
eo

2
.
u
slo
q
tb
ls p
lo
yb
o
o
k ls b
o
tJ
w
o
tk
J
.
1b
e p
lo
yb
o
o
k J
o
es o
o
t ko
o
w
yo
o
t p
to
b
lem

4
.
o
o
w
lll m
o
ke yo
o
tself o
o
J
o
tb
ets o
o
co
m
fo
tto
b
le
5
.
1b
ete ls o
o
q
o
o
to
o
teeJ
so
ccess lo
to
J
lco
l lo
o
o
vo
u
o
o

6
.
1b
ls p
lo
yb
o
o
k w
o
o
t p
to
vlJ
e o
p
o
lck f
x
7
.
lt ls leo
q
tby
8
.
5o
m
e o
co
J
em
lcs w
ete lovo
lveJ
9
.
lt w
o
o
t b
elp
yo
o
p
teJ
lct tb
e fo
to
te
1
0
. o
o
co
o
t cb
eo
t o
t lo
o
o
vo
u
o
o
##
1. You will not find a single
ready-to-use idea.
Ceneraung your nexL blg ldea ls your
[ob. 1hls playbook ls here Lo supporL and
gulde you ln Lhls daunung Lask by glvlng
you pracucal Lools and suggesLed sLeps
Lowards maklng your vlslon real.
2. Using this playbook is
hard work.
As a workbook, lL ls noL called a WC8kbook
for noLhlng. lnnovauon ls hard work.
1here really are no shorLcuLs Lo blg ldeas.
lnsLead, we wlll show you how oLhers
have used Lhe Lools Lo approach and solve
Lhelr problems, so you can beneL from
muluple real-world examples and ups.
3. The playbook does
not know your problem.
?ou have Lo know your problem. 1ake
Lhe Lools presenLed here and make
Lhem your own. AdapL Lhem, use Lhem
creauvely, and make Lhem work for you.
1he Lools have been deslgned Lo work ln
dlverse conLexLs and for dlverse groups.
4. You will make yourself
and others uncomfortable.
8lg ldeas oen requlre blg changes, whlch
can feel scary. lorLunaLely, Lhls playbook
glves you Lhe Lools Lo make your case
agalnsL Lhe reslsLance. ?ou can use Lhe
Lools Lo reason for Lhe lnevlLablllLy of
changes and Lo show why Lhe changes
are noL only [usued buL necessary.
5. There is no guaranteed
success in radical innovation.
uslng Lhls playbook wlll noL change
Lhls facL. Cn Lhe conLrary, Lhe book
urges you Lo fall early and Lo fall oen!
8y experlmenung wlLh ldeas, you wlll
evenLually nd a blg and successful
one. 1o help you fall more eagerly, Lhe
playbook oers a low-cosL, low-rlsk
envlronmenL Lo proLoLype and LesL.
6. This playbook wont
provide a quick fix.
1he more radlcal your ldea ls, Lhe blgger
changes are requlred, and Lhe longer lL wlll
Lake Lo execuLe. WlLh Lhls playbook, you
can Lake Lhe rsL concreLe sLeps Lowards
lmplemenung your vlslon as soon as Lhls
aernoon. AL a mlnlmum, you wlll know
whaL Lo do nexL and roughly how long lL
wlll Lake Lo do lL.
7. It is lengthy.
We don'L expecL you Lo wade Lhrough
Lhe playbook from cover Lo cover. ?ou
can grab whaL you need as you need lL.
All Lools are deslgned Lo sLand alone.
8. Some academics were
involved.
Many of Lhese Lools were LaughL and
LesLed aL unlverslues. Cur Leam regularly
crosses academlc and buslness semngs
wlLh ease because, ldeally, good Lheory
and good pracuce should go hand ln hand.
#$
9. It wont help you predict
the future.
Llke Lhe weaLher reporL, you can LrusL
a forecasL only so much because Lhlngs
change. WhaL you can do, however, ls
Lo plan ahead and prepare yourself. 1he
Lools ln Lhls playbook can help you ouL
wlLh Lhls challenge and are speclcally
deslgned Lo be exlble as a slLuauon
changes.
10. You cant cheat at
innovation.
?ou may be LempLed Lo Lake shorLcuLs or
fake your analysls. 1aklng Lhe same road
or repeaung old rouunes won'L Lake you
any furLher ln your pursulL of anyLhlng
radlcal. 1he same holds Lrue for adopung
whaL's popular. 1hls ls where you wlll
need a loL of self-dlsclpllne and self-
reecuon. lL's all up Lo you.
kLILLC1ICN
0+;(+ $"/6286F6G $"628/#"3
926# 1;#+ 42'> 0+4>
#%
Strategic foresight
loreslghL ls Lhe ablllLy Lo plan for
Lhe fuLure. lL ls a mlx of mlndseL and
meLhodology: a vlew of Lhe fuLure and
Lhe pracuce of looklng forward.
ln parucular, organlzauons use sLraLeglc
foreslghL Lo help Lhem develop long-Lerm
plans for new buslness growLh. arL of Lhe
premlse ls LhaL fuLure ouLcomes can be
lnuenced by our cholces ln Lhe presenL.
A key dlerence exlsLs beLween
foreslghL and predlcuon. loreslghL
acknowledges LhaL Lhe fuLure ls
amblguous and alms Lo prepare
declslon-makers for how Lhe fuLure may
change. ln conLrasL, predlcuons Lry Lo
remove uncerLalnLy from Lhe fuLure by
forecasung whaL wlll happen based on
Lhe llkellhood of cerLaln evenLs.
Innovation
lundamenLally, lnnovauon ls abouL
ndlng, bulldlng, and Laklng a new ldea
Lo Lhe markeLplace. lnnovauon allows
all Lypes of organlzauons-buslnesses,
nonproLs, and governmenL lnsuLu-
uons-Lo creaLe new cusLomers, bulld
sLronger loyalLy among currenL cusLomers,
and sLay relevanL ln Lhe world.
Moreover, lnnovauon can descrlbe
elLher Lhe ouLpuL or Lhe process. ln Lhls
playbook, we focus on Lhe process ln
order Lo lmprove Lhe ouLpuL.
Radical innovation
8adlcal lnnovauon Lakes dally 8&u
and new producL developmenL eorLs
anoLher sLep furLher. 8adlcal lnnovauon
ls a way of lmaglnlng blg ldeas LhaL
What definitions are we using?
ulumaLely can creaLe blg lmpacL. lL ls
abouL changlng Lhe magnlLude of your
eorL, elLher ln Lerms of how your group
approaches lnnovauon or ln Lerms of
Lhe lmpacL you would llke Lo see ln Lhe
markeL.
Whlle scholars may refer Lo radlcal
lnnovauon by a varleLy of synonyms-
such as dlsrupuve, breakLhrough, or
revoluuonary-all Lhe Lerms share a
core denluon. 8adlcal lnnovauon ls noL
lncremenLal developmenL, lnsLead, lL ls a
new Lechnology or soluuon LhaL creaLes
an enurely new and oen unexpecLed
markeL. ln some cases, Lhe soluuon
pushes Lhe llmlLs of prevlous lnvenuons
and may requlre Lhe creauon of new
Lechnologles ln order Lo be bullL.
#&
What do you see as the most rational
path to innovation? What does your
leadership team believe?

ulumaLely, your organlzauon has a
vlewpolnL on lnnovauon. 1here are Lhree
baslc ways an organlzauon can grow
Lhrough lnnovauon: core growLh, new
growLh, and emerglng growLh. Lach Lype
wlll deLermlne Lhe approach and Lools for
lnnovauon.

Core growth
1he goal of Core CrowLh ls Lo sLrengLhen
Lhe core buslness and enLerprlse mlsslon
by creaung and dellverlng successful
new producLs and servlces LhaL L Lhe
exlsung poruollo. 1hls paLh ls generally
focused on shorL-Lerm opporLunlues.
New growth
1he goal of new CrowLh ls Lo expand Lhe
buslness by developlng new operauons
or ndlng new markeLs complemenLary
Lo exlsung eorLs. 1hls paLh Lends Lo
focus on mld-Lerm opporLunlues.
Emerging growth
1he goal of Lmerglng CrowLh ls Lo
caplLallze on emerglng areas and blg
beLs LhaL may be ln enurely new or
unrelaLed secLors. 1hls paLh pursues
long-Lerm posslblllues wlLh poLenual
hlgh reward.
8adlcal lnnovauon relles mosL on
Lmerglng CrowLh because Lhe alm ls Lo
generaLe Lhe greaLesL lmpacL. 1hls paLh
ls noL necessarlly a hlgh-rlsk sLraLegy,
alLhough blg beLs ln Lechnology may
be lnvolved. lnsLead, rlsk ls mlnlmlzed
by evaluaung fuLure posslblllues
sysLemaucally and Lhen by Laklng
dellberaLe and lnformed acuon. ?ou
know whaL you are dolng nexL, even lf
Lhe end resulLs are noL exacLly clear yeL.
What type of growth do we seek?
kLILLC1ICN
0+;(+ <$21#+ 5/#+ 32"6 42'$
12$) 72('6 926# 28> 0+4>
#'
AdapLed from CrowLh Agenda LlmlLed
Core Growth
New Growth New Growth
Lmerg|ng
Growth
looq tetm bets
5ttoteqlc veototes
lotote lovestmeots
ctoss sectot pottoetsblps
8osloess moJel looovouoo
AJjoceot sectot Jlstopuoo
New motket eotty
New copoblllues
Nottotloq tbe ecosystem
New ptoJocts ooJ setvlces
New costomet ocpolsluoo
Opetouoool eoboocemeot
#(
Where should we look for ideas?
You may fnd your initial focus in
three simple places.
Organizational start
ln many cases, sLraLegy or 8&u Leams
are already worklng wlLhln an exlsung
long-Lerm roadmap. ?ou Lhus know
whlch emerglng markeL needs and/or
Lechnology areas represenL prlorlues
Lo your organlzauon. lor example, as a
nanclal servlces manager, you know you
musL sLarL explorlng Lhe fuLure of reLall
banklng.

Internal start
ln oLher cases, an lnnovaLor or Leam
leader beglns wlLh a Loplc area LhaL
sounds promlslng. ?ou may already have
some experuse ln a parucular space or
feel personally mouvaLed Lo pursue an
area more deeply. ?ou sLarL wlLh your
guL and slmply ad[usL from Lhere. lor
example, you have a personal passlon
abouL hlgh-Lech hydroponlc farmlng LhaL
you'd llke Lo pursue.

External start
CLher umes, you may have Lhe forLune
Lo sLarL de novo" wlLhouL any corporaLe
expecLauon or Leam goal. ?ou can Lhen
look for nuggeLs of lnnovauon ldeas
around you, and many sources are rlch
for dlscovery. 1he mosL common sources
for ndlng fuLure needs are sLausucs,
eld reporLs, fuLure scenarlos, hlsLory,
and currenL nlches. 1hese sources are
presenLed ln Lhe ad[acenL Lable.
Where do we find inspiration?
Category Lxamp|e sources
Stansncs
# roducL sales forecasLs
# 1rend daLa
# Slmulauons
# uemographlc reporLs
Stansncs
# user / experL lnLervlews
# Soclal neLwork usage
# locus groups
# LLhnography
Iuture
scenar|os
# 8ole-playlng
# uelphl meLhod
# Movles
# Sclence cuon
n|story
# Archlves
# Case sLudles
# uocumenLs
&*##*+
n|ches
# Larly adopLers
# 1rendseuers
# Lead users
# 1houghL leaders
# Weak slgnals
J9
Multiple innovation rolesor what
you might call personality types
coexist within an organization at any
given time.
Who leads change in innovation?
ln addluon, lL helps Lo know how Lhe
varlous roles lnLeracL wlLh one anoLher.
Whlle each role has an lmporLanL parL Lo
play ln Lhe pursulL for lnnovauon, each
role Lends Lo see Lhlngs very dlerenLly.
A cerLaln amounL of creauve frlcuon ls
naLural. As your Leam ls puL lnLo sLressful
slLuauons, you can help Lhe oLher Leam
members undersLand Lhe value of
brlnglng muluple mlnds LogeLher.
We presenL slx common roles LhaL you
oen nd wlLhln an 8&u endeavor or
new lnnovauon venLure: Lhe loneer,
roblem Solver, AnalysL, roducer, 8ebel,
and ragmausL.
Lach role Lakes a dlerenL approach Lo
Lhe lnnovauon process and, Lhus, values
dlerenL ouLpuL. Whlle one role may
domlnaLe your usual behavlor, you llkely
share LralLs across several roles.
As an lnnovauon manager, look Lo
balance Lhese roles wlLhln your Leam.
Also conslder Lhe roles wlLhln your
broader neLwork, so LhaL you may shape
your group's communlcauon sLraLeglcally.
1nL kCDUCLk
ldeas may sLarL wlLh one person, buL Lhey requlre
a Leam Lo dellver. ?ou rally oLhers Lo a good cause
and Lake prlde ln undersLandlng Lhe people behlnd
Lhe process. lnnovauon musL be a shared mlndseL.
- 8egln aL ChapLer 4 on CpporLunlLy
- Lvangellze Lhe luLureLelllng meLhod
1nL kL8LL
?ou puL Lhe radlcal ln radlcal lnnovauon. ?ou conslder
rouunes as negouable and oen help oLhers Lo Lhlnk
ouLslde Lhe proverblal box. WhaL many mlss ls LhaL
you know Lhe sysLem closely so you know where Lo
bend rules.
- !ump rsL Lo ChapLer 7 on vlslon
- LxLend Lhe luLure user Lool
1nL kAGMA1IS1
WhaL some mlghL call lazy, you call focused. ?ou
value Laklng Lhe mosL emclenL paLh Lo Lhe deslred
ouLcome, and you help oLhers Lo geL Lhe essenuals
done wlLhouL creaung exLra work. lnnovauon comes
down Lo execuuon.
- Sklm Lhe ups rsL for each meLhod
- Work wlLh Lhe LemplaLes
1nL ICNLLk
?ou burn Lo nd and conquer undlscovered
opporLunlues. WhaL mauers mosL are fasL resulLs.
?ou LrusL whaL you can see and follow your guL
Lhrough Lrlal and error. ?ou learn besL by dolng
and showlng oLhers.
- Scan Lhe examples glven Lo spark ldeas
- AdopL Lhe uA8A Pard 1esL
1nL kC8LLM SCLVLk
?ou love a good challenge and won'L back down
unul you solve lL. ?ou're good aL ldenufylng
assumpuons, consLralnLs, and alLernauves. SmarL
lnnovauon requlres semng goals so you can
narrow your opuons wlsely.
- Caln fasL conLexL wlLh ChapLer 3 on erspecuve
- AdopL Lhe Change aLhs meLhod
1nL ANALS1
?ou llke Lo see Lhe facLs rsL before [umplng Lo
concluslons. Asklng Lhe rlghL quesuons mauer
when gemng Lo Lhe LruLh. ?ou belleve eecuve
lnnovauon Lakes dlsclpllne, and you appreclaLe
sysLemauc rlgor.
- Learn how Lo layer Lhe loreslghL meLhods
- MasLer Lhe WhlLe SpoLs meLhod
$)
$!
This playbook can be applied easily
to different types of organizations
and contexts.
1he meLhods have been dellberaLely
deslgned Lo address Lhe fundamenLals of
radlcal lnnovauon ln a buslness semng and
have been LesLed wlLh muluple companles
and lnsuLuuons around Lhe world.
ln oLher words, experlence has shown
us LhaL anyone can use Lhese meLhods.
1hey are noL llmlLed Lo a parucular
lndusLry, counLry, or Lype of organlzauon.
ln addluon, Lhe lessons and examples
presenLed LhroughouL Lhe playbook are
drawn from a varleLy of lndusLrles and
companles. ?ou can learn from oLhers
ouLslde your eld, whlch may help you see
your own eorL from a dlerenL angle.
Industry sector
Llke Lhe besL Lools, our meLhods are
deslgned Lo be lndusLry-agnosuc. ?ou
don'L follow Lhe lndusLry, you follow Lhe
opporLunlLy. We've seen our meLhods
used ln healLhcare, auLomouve, heavy
lndusLrles, consumer elecLronlcs,
soware, nanclal servlces, and many
oLher lndusLrlal secLors. ueslgned Lo be
exlble, Lhese meLhods supporL and help
Which contexts or industries work best?
sLrucLure your declslon-maklng regardless
of your conLenL focus.

Type of organization
lrankly, we've seen Lhe greaLesL use
by companles. Some companles wanL
Lo flnd Lhe nexL blg ldea, some wanL
Lo renew or lmprove Lhelr pracLlce
of lnnovaLlon. CLher organlzaLlons-
lncludlng unlverslLles, nonproflLs,
governmenLal agencles, and
foundaLlons-have also found boLh Lhe
mlndseL and meLhodology valuable Lo
Lhelr mlsslon. We wlll Lry Lo hlghllghL
examples from all Lypes of organlzaLlons
ln Lhe playbook.
Company size
Managers aL large esLabllshed
corporauons, small buslnesses (SMLs),
and sLarLups have all used and LesLed
Lhese meLhods ln Lhe lasL few years. Whlle
Lhe level of bureaucracy and avallable
resources may dler by company slze, Lhe
underlylng need Lo develop a dlsclpllne
of lnnovauon remalns Lhe same.
$"
Country and culture
Cur meLhods dellberaLely cross
geographlc boundarles. laybook
examples and ups come from llnland
and Lhe unlLed SLaLes-as well as from
muluple places ln Lurope, LasL Asla,
Afrlca, and lndla. Cur goal ls Lo maxlmlze
learnlng, recognlzlng boLh slmllarlues
and dlerences across culLures.
I am a social scientist in Finland, and
our usual Scandinavian planning
principle is to plan rigorously and
execute once. After working with
several American colleagues from
Silicon Valley, I have discovered
an unexpected difference in their
approach to problem-solving.
In Silicon Valley, they tend to
execute frst, revise, and then
execute again. While I can see the
value in rapid learning cycles, at the
same time, this approach creates a
headache for Finns who have already
settled contentedly and deliberately
with their frst creation.
As we work with more foreign
innovators, Finnish managers should
be exposed earlier to other ways of
workingultimately leading to better
harmony and making iteration a
welcome part of our planning process.
VIEWPOINT
|
Revisionist thinking
$#
What types of problems are other
companies and innovation managers
addressing with the methods in this
playbook?
Pere's Lhe qulck answer: some groups
sLarL wlLh a speclc opporLunlLy or
problem ln mlnd, oLher groups wanL Lo
explore a range of fuLure posslblllues.
1he meLhods are dellberaLely exlble.
See whaL oLher Leams have done
around Lhe world:
Global forestry company
"We used Lhe meLhods Lo develop an
enurely new producL concepL based on a
recenLly developed wood-based maLerlal.
We applled Lhe meLhods Lo Langlbly
envlslon a prole of Lhe producL's fuLure
user ln order Lo bulld a user-drlven vlslon."
International paper
producer
"We wanLed Lo Lhlnk ouL of Lhe box and
flnd new ldeas for exlsLlng asseLs. 1he
Lools gave us a sLrucLured approach
Lo lnvenLlng new uses for an obsoleLe
producLlon capaclLy. ln a heavlly
caplLal-lnLenslve lndusLry such as ours,
lL really pald off Lo be creaLlve wlLh
alLernaLlve uses for our slack capaclLy
and resources."
National media company
"WlLh Lhe meLhods, we redeslgned our
company's long-range plannlng approach
and allgned muluple organlzauonal
processes ln Lrend-ndlng. 1he meLhods
leL us [olnLly deslgn and emclenLly
communlcaLe Lhe new processes among
colleagues and exLernal collaboraLors."
What types of problems are addressed?
Software developer
"We wanLed Lo anuclpaLe fuLure
Lechnology changes, so we could prepare
ourselves for Lhese changes and cra
soluuons for our cllenLs LhaL supporL
Lhe new rouunes and ways of worklng
ln Lhe fuLure. We used Lhe meLhods Lo
bulld grounded scenarlos of fuLure work
envlronmenLs and pracuces, helplng us
deLermlne Lhe acuons Lo Lake Loday Lo be
ready for Lomorrow."
Training service provider
"We belleve foreslghL ls a sklll and a
way of Lhlnklng LhaL can be learned. We
used Lhe meLhods ln our annual sLraLegy
plannlng process Lo gaLher lnpuL from
our exLernal neLwork and gulde Lhe
developmenL of a ve-year sLraLegy
roadmap."
$$
Marketing department
"We needed Lo rebrand one of our
more convenuonal producL llnes, make
lL 'greener' Lo consumers. 8rands are all
abouL creaung percepuons and, hence,
lnuenclng people. 1hls requlred boLh a
sLrong, exclung, and bellevable vlslon as
well as a coherenL and LargeLed commu-
nlcauon sLraLegy. 1he meLhods here
helped us achleve [usL LhaL."
Federal governmental
agency
"Cne of our largesL fundlng programs
was drawlng Lo an end. We needed Lo
gure ouL how Lhe world and nauonal
lnnovauon challenges had changed slnce
lL sLarLed, so we could develop new
program sLrucLures and conLenL LhaL
would be relevanL for fuLure fundlng
needs. 1he meLhods made lL easy Lo
organlze dlscusslons wlLh experLs and LesL
wheLher Lhe new program vlslons were
far-reachlng and ambluous enough."
Strategic R&D consortium
"8&u acuvlues Lake place ln hlghly
neLworked communlues of academlc,
corporaLe, and governmenLal acLors. We
used Lhe meLhods Lo creaLe and plan a
[olnL research agenda LhaL ls far-reachlng
yeL acuonable. lL was helpful Lo map and
Lhen re-posluon our neLwork parLners
based on Lhelr L wlLh our fuLure goals."
International steel
company
"We especlally llked Lhe vlsuallzlng and
fasL proLoLyplng wlLh slmple mockups,
whlch has aecLed our mode of operauon
and opened new ways Lo Lhlnk and
communlcaLe ldeas Lo oLhers."

National IT company
"1he meLhods have been used ln Lhe
annual plannlng of some of our company's
areas. 1hey have been useful when
produclng supporung ldeas and maLerlal
for buslness model developmenL of new
servlces. All ln all, conslder Lhese sample
slLuauons as hlnLs for your own plannlng."
1he guldellnes provlded ln Lhls playbook
wlll help you learn Lhe core prlnclples
needed Lo use Lhe meLhods correcLly,
and as wlLh mosL plans, you Lhen need Lo
LranslaLe Lhem lnLo your conLexL.
$%
2012 Wllllam Cockayne & 1amara CarleLon
Some Leams prefer Lo follow a sLep-by-
sLep process LhaL provldes conslsLenL
resulLs. We have adopLed 8loom's
1axonomy of learnlng ouLcomes Lo ensure
LhaL your Lhlnklng advances Lo hlgher
levels aL each sLep, as well as lncludes
several lnLernal learnlng loops.
What is the learning process?
6
kNCWLLDGL
CCMkLnLNSICN
ALICA1ICN
ANALSIS
SN1nLSIS
LVALUA1ICN
dene repeaL record
llsL recall name
relaLe underllne
LranslaLe resLaLe
dlscuss descrlbe
recognlze explaln
express ldenufy
locaLe reporL revlew
Lell
lnLerpreL apply
employ use
demonsLraLe
dramauze pracuce
lllusLraLe oper-
aLe schedule shop
skeLch
dlsungulsh analyze
dlerenuaLe
appralse calculaLe
experlmenL LesL
compare conLrasL
crluclze dlagram
lnspecL debaLe
lnvenLory quesuon
relaLe solve examlne
caLegorlze
compose plan
propose deslgn
formulaLe arrange
assemble collecL
consLrucL creaLe
seL up organlze
manage prepare
[udge appralse
evaluaLe raLe
compare value
revlse score selecL
choose assess
esumaLe measure
7
8
9
:
;
<
=
>
6?
66
67
68 69
6:
6;
$&
Step Learn|ng Cb[ecnve Method Go to age
6 uene Lhe dlerenL dlmenslons ln your lnnovauon space ConLexL Map 61
7 8ecall Lhe hlsLorlcal pauerns for Lhe relevanL dlmenslons rogresslon Curves 70
8 LocaLe Lhe pauerns ln ume, noung oLher relaLed lnuences !anus Cones 81
9 ldenufy any opporLunlues ln populauon changes Cenerauonal Arcs 94
: SkeLch Lwo user proles Lo anuclpaLe fuLure cusLomer needs luLure user 103
; uramauze Lhe fuLure cusLomer need ln a real conLexL luLureLelllng 114
< ulagram a range of soluuons Lo nd a gap ln cusLomer need WhlLe SpoLs 127
= ConsLrucL a qulck physlcal proLoLype of your fuLure soluuon aper Mockups 136
> 8e-creaLe your proLoLype, focuslng on Lhe core beneL uark Porse roLoLype 143
6? lan a paLh of acuon Lo address Lhe fuLure cusLomer need Change aLhs 149
66 !udge colleagues and frlends as poLenual lnnovauon parLners 8uddy Checks 168
67 8aLe yourself and your Leam for lnnovauon leadershlp apuLude vClCL SLars 178
68 value how your lnnovauon neLwork can supporL your ldea's growLh Crowd Clovers 188
69 SelecL a shorL descrlpuon abouL your fuLure soluuon vlslon SLaLemenL 203
6: Score your soluuon's vlslon sLaLemenL for lLs vlslonary poLenual uA8A Pard 1esL 213
6; Choose your ldea's mosL emclenL neLwork paLh Lo success aLhnders 230
$'
What's the b|g
p|cture?
- page 61
What was done
|n the past?
- page 70
What pauerns can
we annc|pate?
- page 81
What changes |n
peop|e mauer?
- page 94
Who are our future
customers?
- page 103

now can we exc|te
our aud|ence?
- page 114
Where |s the
untapped market?
- page 127
What |s our hrst
prototype?
- page 136
What |s essenna|
about our |dea?
- page 143
What acnon shou|d
we do next?
- page 149
Are you focused on a parucular aspecL
of a problem? Whlle all Lhe meLhods are
deslgned Lo work as a sysLem, you can [ump
Lo a parucular meLhod as needed based on
Lhe quesuon faclng your Leam now:
Can we start with a specific objective?
$(
now do we hnd
good partners?
- page 168
What |eadersh|p
do we need?
- page 178
now can we use
our network?
- page 188
What |s a
good v|s|on?
- page 203
now can we test
our v|s|on?
- page 213
now can our
v|s|on succeed?
- page 230
49
lf your Leam ls mldway Lhrough a pro[ecL,
you can use Lhe qulck self-assessmenL
here Lo deLermlne your nexL sLep or re-
check LhaL all gaps have been sumclenLly
addressed. 1hls evaluauon wlll leL you
[ump Lo Lhe speclc meLhod(s) you need.

Instructions
lease mark one x for each row Lo
evaluaLe your Leam's level of knowledge
ln addresslng Lhe speclc sLaLemenL.
Scor|ng key:
1 polnL = mlsslng knowledge
2 polnLs = llmlLed knowledge
3 polnLs = adequaLe knowledge
4 polnLs = good knowledge
3 polnLs = excellenL knowledge
Where do we start midway in a project?
kad|ca| |nnovanon statement
1eam's |eve| of know|edge
1 2 3 4 3
xomp/e: l c/eor/y understond the instrucnons. H
a. We can ldenufy Lhe maln lssues ln our Loplc.
b.
We can descrlbe Lhe precedenLs of Lhls ldea LhaL have
succeeded or falled ln our organlzauon, relaLed lndusLrles/
dlsclpllnes, and oLher counLrles.
c.
We know whlch evenLs, companles, and oLher ldeas LhaL
have lnuenced Loday's undersLandlng of Lhls Loplc.
d.
We know who Lhe largesL and/or mosL relevanL populauon
group ls ln our LargeL fuLure horlzon.
e.
We can ldenufy Lhe shared values and bellefs of Lhls spe-
clc populauon group.
f.
We have developed a comprehenslve prole
(persona) of our LargeL fuLure user.
g.
We know how Lhe unlque needs of Lhe LargeL fuLure user
wlll be dlerenL from Loday's user.
sona) of our LargeL fuLure user.
h.
We can presenL a clear use case LhaL presenLs Lhe user's
behavlors ln a reallsuc fuLure conLexL.
l.
We know how our soluuon creaLes a radlcally new oppor-
LunlLy ln Lhe markeLplace.
[.
We can ldenufy Lhe Lop 2-3 facLors LhaL dene Lhe unlque
value of our lnnovauon ldea.
%)
Scoring
lf your Leam's score ls less Lhan 3 polnLs
per row ln Lhe ad[acenL Lable, conslder
Lurnlng Lo Lhe approprlaLe meLhod(s) as
needed:

a. ConLexL Map on page 61
b. rogresslon Curves on page 70
c. !anus Cones on page 81
d. Cenerauonal Arcs on page 94
e. Cenerauonal Arcs on page 94
f. luLure user on page 103
g. luLure user on page 103
h. luLureLelllng on page 114
l. WhlLe SpoLs on page 127
[. WhlLe SpoLs on page 127
k. aper Mockups on page 136
l. uark Porse roLoLype on page 143
m. Change aLhs on page 149
n. 8uddy Checks on page 168
o. vClCL SLars on page 178
p. Crowd Clovers on on page 188
q. vlslon SLaLemenL on page 203
r. uA8A Pard 1esL on page 213
s. aLhnders on page 230

kad|ca| |nnovanon statement 1eam's |eve| of know|edge
1 2 3 4 3
k.
We can explaln several lessons galned from bulldlng and
Lesung a rough model / proLoLype of our lnnovauon sysLem.
l.
We can speclfy Lhe fundamenLal lnnovauon ln our ldea
LhaL brlngs Lhe mosL value Lo our LargeL users.
m.
We can name Lhe Lop 2-3 mosL crlucal declslons LhaL are
on Lhe dlrecL paLh Lo dellverlng our lnnovauon ldea.
n. We have a good sense on how Lo nd co-creaLors.
o.
Cur Leam knows whaL ls requlred Lo lead and lnsull a cul-
Lure of radlcal lnnovauon.
p. We know how Lo rely on our personal neLworks for acuon.
q.
We can presenL a mlnl summary of our lnnovauon vlslon
LhaL any poLenual cusLomer would undersLand.
r.
We can ldenufy Lhe breakLhrough poLenual of our lnnova-
uon vlslon ln relauon Lo oLher well-known lnnovauons.
s.
We know Lhe formal and lnformal paLh our ldea musL Lake
wlLhln Lhe organlzauon Lo succeed.
%!
The short answer is both.
All the methods can be used
independently or within groups.
Using methods alone
Some people prefer uslng a parucular
meLhod on Lhelr own for Lhe followlng
reasons:
- 8efore Lhey Lalk wlLh oLhers, Lhey
use Lhese meLhods Lo help Lhem
sorL and prlorluze muluple opuons
LhaL have been sLewlng quleLly ln
Lhelr heads.
- 1he meLhods leL Lhem prepare a
beuer presenLauon LhaL ls more
vlsual and provocauve Lhan Lhe
usual reporL slldes.
- 1he meLhods are uncommon,
encouraglng a user Lo loosen
exlsung blases and broaden a
problem space ln new ways.
Using methods in teams
CLhers Lake advanLage of worklng ln
groups for Lhese reasons:
- 1he meLhods oer an lmparual
common language, whlch helps
prevenL people from dlerenL
dlvlslons or funcuons falllng back Lo
allenaung [argon or beloved Lools
as easlly.
- 1he feedback and ensulng dlalogue
among group members allow ldeas
Lo sharpen fasLer and co-evolve
wlLh addluonal lnpuL.
- AnoLher beneL ls greaLer
allgnmenL wlLhln a Leam or
communlLy. 8y worklng LogeLher
wlLh Lhe meLhods, people feel a
shared sense of ownershlp ln Lhe
ldeas.
- As work has become more complex
and speclallzed, worklng ln groups
overcomes Lhe problem of narrow
Lhlnklng. 1he meLhods can be used
Lo encourage a cross-dlsclpllnary
conversauon, drawlng upon a wlder
pool of knowledge ln Lhe group.
Should we work in teams or alone?
Optimal group size
We are oen asked, whaL ls Lhe rlghL
number of people ln a group? 1he ldeal
group slze Lends Lo be abouL four people,
so LhaL enough dlverslLy exlsLs ln Lerms
of age, background, dlsclpllne, eLc.
ulumaLely, everyone should feel llke a
conLrlbuung member. Croup slzes Lend
Lo be larger ln Aslan culLures. Also, experL
faclllLauon ls nlce, buL opuonal.
use Lhe meLhods Lo rally your Leam
Lo a common cause and spark ln-depLh
dlscusslons on ldeas and vlslons LhaL you
wanL Lo pursue. LlLher used lndlvldually
or ln groups, Lhe meLhods glve sLrucLure
Lo Lhe unsLrucLured process of radlcal
lnnovauon.
%"
1he meLhods here rely on real-world
daLa, so LhaL Lhe resulung soluuons are
fully grounded ln reallLy. ln oLher words,
Lhese soluuons are lnLended Lo be bullL.
When lnnovauon pro[ecLs sLarL, groups
are oen sLumped abouL where Lo nd
approprlaLe daLa. ln group meeungs,
lL ls easy and convenlenL Lo draw from
personal experlence Lo make a buslness
case for a new ldea.
AL some polnL, however, you should
ground your anecdoLal evldence and
hunches wlLh real daLa. 8elow are
several daLa sources as sLarung polnLs
for foreslghL developmenL. 1hese
sources span newspapers, lnLernauonal
daLabases, academlc programs, and
more. We expecL you Lo expand Lhls
llsL based on Lhe experLs and resources
unlque Lo your eld of work and
organlzauon.
And don'L forgeL Lo observe whaL
ls around you as reveallng sources
of lnformauon. lor example, when
auempung Lo undersLand needs Loday, a
wonderful exerclse ls Lo plck up a seL of
magazlnes as prlmary research maLerlals.
Ask yourself:
- WhaL are Lhe arucles abouL?
- WhaL ls Lhe Lone?
- WhaL ls Lhe background of Lhe
wrlLers?
- WhaL ls Lhe quallLy of Lhe magazlne
lLself?
- Who ls Lhe magazlne's LargeL
reader, who ls lLs percelved
reader?
?our daLa sources for fuLure plannlng
are endless, lncludlng: LexLbooks,
newspapers, wlkls, lndusLry reporLs,
unlverslues, governmenL agencles,
lndusLry assoclauons, research labs, Lhlnk
Lanks, professlonal [ournals, and experL
lnLervlews.
lease see Lhe appendlx for a brlef llsL
of resources ln emerglng Lechnologles,
locauon and populauon, corporaLe
resources, and more.
Where can we find credible data?
kLILLC1ICN
0+/# /$" 42'$ '6'/. #25
sources for informonon?
0+4>
%#
Planning with foresight
Sophle Penrlksen (a pseudonym),
developmenL manager aL a global player
ln one of Lhe world's mosL producuon-
lnLenslve lndusLrles, auended a manager
program for lnnovauon Lralnlng wlLh
several colleagues.
Aerwards, she planned Lo apply Lhe
new Lools and Lechnlques she learned
Lo oLher lnluauves underway aL her
company. Penrlksen declded Lo plan Lwo
addluonal workshops ued Lo speclc
pro[ecLs.
Cne workshop would be a half-day
sesslon focused on explorlng lnnovauve
buslness models for new producLs. 1he
second workshop would be a full-day
sesslon dedlcaLed Lo ndlng new end uses
and appllcauons for an exlsung producL.
The advantage of
workshops
More Lhan rouune meeungs, workshops
are an eecuve way Lo brlng people
LogeLher and focus eorLs on a Loplc of
common lnLeresL. lew oLher meLhods of
collaborauon glve people Lhe chance Lo
lnLeracL and have a concenLraLed perlod
Lo sLraLeglcally plan and reecL.
1yplcally, managers may devoLe only
a small poruon of Lhelr ume on deep
analysls, so Lhese klnds of sesslons
provlde key perspecuves LhaL can be
dlmculL Lo pursue durlng dally work
hours.
Pow ls an lnnovauon workshop
dlerenL from any oLher Lype of
workshop? llrsL, Lhe agenda ls focused
on generaung and evaluaung new ldeas.
Penrlksen wlshed Lo provlde Lhe rlghL
lnnovauon Lools Lo explore more ldeas
beyond Lhe usual bralnsLormlng Lacucs.
Second, Lhe ouLcome ls noL Lo solve
problems. Whlle Penrlksen wanLed Lo
encourage open-ended Lhlnklng abouL
fuLure posslblllues among paruclpanLs,
she knew LhaL Lhe real goal was Lo ldenufy
promlslng buslness opporLunlues.
1hlrd, paruclpanLs oen work wlLh
ldeas as parL of Lhelr [ob roles. Penrlksen
would rsL conslder colleagues ln buslness
sLraLegy, research and developmenL, new
CASE STUDY | 10 workshop lessons from an industry veteran

producL developmenL, markeL research,
and oLher relaLed areas, all of whom were
responslble for lnnovauon ln some way.
lrom prlor experlence, Penrlksen
knew Lhe lmporLance of plannlng cerLaln
workshop deLalls before sendlng ouL Lhe
lnvlLauons, such as framlng ob[ecuves
approprlaLely and creaung a safe and
supporuve envlronmenL for everyone. She
also consulLed Lwo workshop faclllLaLors
ln advance for Lhelr recommendauons.
1ogeLher Lhey revlslLed Lhelr 10
mosL cenLral LeneLs for organlzlng an
lnnovauon workshop:

%$
Lesson 1: Maximize
participant diversity
eople rely on Lechnlques honed from prlor
experlence-whaL scholars call heurlsucs-
and Lrlal-and-error for dally problem solvlng,
learnlng, and dlscovery. lnvlung people wlLh
slmllar backgrounds and [ob responslblllues
means LhaL everyone ln Lhe workshop
wlll draw on slmllar menLal models and
blases. lnvlung people from more dlverse
backgrounds wlll boosL Lhe number of
menLal models avallable, whlch could
lead Lo more creauve (re-)comblnauons.
ulverslLy can be dened across muluple
facLors such as corporaLe funcuon, [ob role,
personallLy Lype, gender, age, and academlc
Lralnlng. ulverse perspecuves wlll also
energlze Leam dlscusslons and brlng new
lnslghLs lnLo old conLexLs.
Lesson 2: Divide people
into smaller teams
Smaller Leams lead Lo hlgher levels of
engagemenL and lnLeracuon, and sLudles
show LhaL Lhe opumal group slze for
problem solvlng Lends Lo be four people.
Smaller Leams also means more ldeas
can be pursed and shared wlLh Lhe oLher
Leams for feedback. 8reaklng up groups
LhaL collaboraLe ln dally work and lnvlung
exLernal sLakeholders, such as parLners
and cusLomers, helps fosLer dlverslLy.
Lesson 3:
Assign light pre-work
Many workshops sLarL wlLh a warm-up
acuvlLy LhaL seLs Lhe Lone for Lhe workshop
and serves as a group lcebreaker. ?ou can
achleve slmllar resulLs by asslgnlng llghL
pre-work ln advance of Lhe workshop,
whlch recovers preclous ume from
Lhe workshop lLself. lor example, you
may ask paruclpanLs Lo read 2-3 shorL
relevanL arucles, ponder a shorL llsL of
provocauve quesuons, Lry applylng an
lnnovauon Lool, or observe/lnLervlew 1-2
represenLauve cusLomers. 1eams can Lhen
share Lhelr lnlual LhoughLs and resulLs aL
Lhe workshop for open dlscusslon. 1hls
lays an eecuve, shared foundauon LhaL
everyone can dlrecLly bulld on from Lhe
sLarL.
Lesson 4: Frame the
opportunities to be eXplored
AL Lhe early sLages, lnnovauon eorLs
oen requlre maklng sense of very
amblguous Lasks. eople's naLural
dlscomforL wlLh amblgulLy may lead Lo
Lweaklng producL feaLures Lhey know
by hearL and gravlLaung Loward famlllar
buslness soluuons.
Lvery faclllLaLor musL sLrlke a balance
beLween ulumaLe creauve freedom and
dlrecLed group ob[ecuves. 8y semng a
clear agenda and framlng Lhe buslness
opporLunlues soughL, faclllLaLors can
help everyone undersLand Lhe conLexL
of Lhe creauve acuvlues LhaL wlll follow.
urawlng Lhese boundarles ls llke bulldlng
a fence around a group playground, whlch
helps paruclpanLs see where Lo focus
Lhelr eorLs. 8e prepared Lo reseL Leam
dlscusslons LhroughouL Lhe sesslon.
%%
Lesson 5:
Prepare simple examples
Many umes complex lssues are easler Lo
learn when we can observe how oLhers
have approached and solved Lhem.
8efore Leachlng a new meLhod, conslder
provldlng an example LhaL shows Lhe
meLhod ln acuon. aruclpanLs wlll learn
fasLer when examples are shown from
conLexLs Lhey know and recognlze ln Lhe
dally work and home llfe, such as Lhe lasL
pro[ecL launch or Lyplcal summer hollday.
Lesson 6:
Apply real-world data
1eams Lyplcally draw rsL from personal
experlences and oplnlons as lnpuL Lo
anchor Lhe Lools. Solely uslng sub[ecuve
daLa can lead Lo lnvalld, uLoplan
concluslons abouL Lhe fuLure sLaLe of Lhe
world. 1he more real-world daLa Leams
can bulld on, Lhe more grounded Lhelr
lnnovauon soluuons wlll be. 1he real
LruLh Lo sLraLeglc foreslghL and lnnovauon
ls Lo prepare a facLual foundauon of Lhe
presenL, noL Lo wlldly speculaLe abouL Lhe
fuLure.
Lesson 7:
Follow the process
Whlle Lhe Lypes of acuvlues vary wlLh
every lnnovauon workshop, Lhe goals are
nearly always Lhe same: Lo encourage
paruclpanLs Lo look aL an opporLunlLy
ln dlerenL ways. ldeally, Lhe currenL
workshop acuvlLy wlll bulld on lnslghLs
from Lhe prevlous acuvlLy. 1hls playbook
provldes one LesLed formula for ndlng
Lhe nexL blg ldea and also addresses Lhe
gaps oen found wlLh Lhe usual acuvlLy
comblnauon of bralnsLormlng, role-
playlng, and group voung.

Lesson 8: Allow time to
reflect and recharge
1he LempLauon ls Lo bulld a workshop
agenda bursung wlLh exerclses. Whlle
lnLense programs can LranslaLe lnLo hlgh
producuvlLy, creauve Lasks generally
requlre ume Lo explore alLernauves
and connecL unrelaLed Lhlngs. Clve
paruclpanLs ume by spreadlng Lhe
agenda over muluple workshops or days.
re- and posL-asslgnmenLs can sLreamllne
Lhe workshop agenda and provlde ample
breaks and downume for reecuon,
recovery, and recharglng.
%&
Lesson 9: Encourage
experimentation and
iteration
1he meLhods ln Lhls playbook are deslgned
Lo help sLrucLure and advance Leam
dlscusslons. WlLh LhaL ln mlnd, remlnd
paruclpanLs LhaL Lhe ouLpuL from Lhe
meLhods ls noL nal. lnsLead faclllLaLors
should encourage Leams Lo lLeraLe Lhelr
analysls uslng Lhe same meLhods-
reworklng, dlscardlng, and revlslung
dras as needed. Lach lLerauon wlll brlng
Lhem closer Lo a sLronger soluuon.
Moreover, dlscusslons wlLhln and
beLween Leams may prollferaLe beyond
Lhe boundarles of Lhe seL ob[ecuves.
Managers should noLe all new ldeas for
fuLure reference because Lhese ldeas
are Lhe seedllngs of poLenually valuable
new avenues for buslness or lnLernal
developmenL.
Lesson 10: Sustain the
momentum of the workshop
1he co-creauon of ldeas ls one of Lhe mosL
powerful ways of commlmng people Lo
Lhelr lmplemenLauon. 1here ls no sLronger
sense of ownershlp Lhan Lo LhaL whlch
we have creaLed ourselves. Workshops
blnd lndlvlduals LogeLher and creaLe a
sense of solldarlLy around new ldeas.
1hls momenLum can be harnessed lnLo
acuon aer Lhe workshop. lnsLead of Lhe
usual lndlvldual who ls slngle-handedly
Lasked as a pro[ecL champlon, you now
galn an enure Leam LhaL ls energlzed Lo
push Lhrough change. 1he dlerence ln
leverage ls greaL, allowlng lnsplrauon Lo
lead qulckly Lo lnnovauon execuuon.
%'
"1be cbolleoqe of compeuoq fot loJostty foteslqbt
ls to cteote bloJslqbt lo oJvooce.
1be poest fot loJostty foteslqbt ofeo stotts wltb
wbot coolJ be, ooJ tbeo wotks bock to wbot most
boppeo fot tbot fotote to come oboot.
- I/$4 J/9". ooJ ,- K- !$/+/./3
(compeuoq fot tbe lotote, 1996)
%(
PERSPECTIVE
ChaptER 3
Shortcuts
Phase I: Perspective 59
Context Maps 61
Progression Curves 70
Case study: Ubicom 78
Janus Cones 81
59
Have you ever spent time in a
meeting and after 30 minutes,
realized the group should have
discussed what has happened
before in your organization, let
alone industry? Or wondered when
the brainstorm youre in will ever
converge to the main points?
Whlle some groups llke Lo belleve Lhelr
besL lnnovauons occur when Lhey dlsmlss
all prlor knowledge, Lhls slLuauon ls hard
Lo repeaL. 1he real dlsclpllne of lnnovauon
requlres learnlng Lhe problem space
Lhoroughly. 8y belng lmmersed ln Lhe
facLs, you can see new pauerns emerge
and make unexpecLed connecuons
beyond Lhe obvlous. 1hls ls a ume LhaL
scholars Lerm lncubauon".
hase l ln Lhe loreslghL lramework
Lakes all of Lhese lssues lnLo accounL. 1he
ob[ecuve of Lhe rsL phase ls Lo develop
hlsLorlcal perspecuve abouL an area of
lnLeresL relevanL Lo Lhe fuLure you wanL
Lo creaLe. ?ou musL look back rsL ln
order Lo look forward. 8y knowlng whaL
has happened ln Lhe pasL, you can beuer
undersLand whaL may happen agaln
and why-or whaL you can do Lo elLher
explolL or prevenL slmllar occurrences.
Call Lhls phase blue sky research,
dlscovery, or whaLever Lerm makes Lhe
mosL sense for your Leam: lL's all abouL
Phase I: Perspective
galnlng a vlew of Lhe blg plcLure, so you
can dlscern Lhe rlghL pauerns.
1hree meLhods can help you galn
perspecuve qulckly:
- ConLexL Map
- rogresslon Curves
- !anus Cones
&)
Context Maps
ldenufy Lhe maln
dlmenslons of your
currenL problem or
opporLunlLy space.
- page 61
rogress|on
Curves puL
evenL umellnes,
lndusLry llfe-
cycles, and oLher
developmenLs ln
conLexL.
- page 70
Ianus Cones
leL you Lo vlew
muluple, over-
lapplng, and
lnLersecung
evenLs ln a slngle
framework.
- page 81
PHASE I: PERSPECTIVE
erspecuve develops a broader frame of
reference, holdlng up a mlrror Lo Lhe pasL
so you may beuer anuclpaLe Lhe fuLure. uesnons thot drive
#+;6 5+/6"L
- wbot ls tbe blqqet cootext fot
tbe toplc we ote lotetesteJ lo?
- wbot blstotlcol eveots, loJostty
ocuoos, ooJ socletol movemeots
coo be lJeoufeJ os Jtlvets?
- wbeo tevlewloq ptevloos
loveouoos ooJ oppottoolues,
wbot slmllotlues lo umloq ooJ
oJopuoo exlst toJoy?
&!
Context Maps capture the
themes that emerge when
discussing complex problems.



WhEN to use it
- 1o pursue an enurely new area of
research
- 1o nd group agreemenL on Lhe
lmporLanL aspecLs of a problem
- 1o galn fasL background for a
parucular Loplc
WhY its helpful
A ConLexL Map advances Lhe work of
Lhe usual ldea generauon Lools, such as
bralnsLormlng and mlnd-mapplng. 1he
goal of bralnsLormlng ls Lo generaLe as
many ldeas as posslble, and no focus
ls requlred. ln conLrasL, a ConLexL Map
leLs you begln converglng on Lhe Lop
Lhemes or dlmenslons of a parucular
Loplc or opporLunlLy space.
Why elghL dlmenslons Lo a ConLexL
Map? ?ou have enough Lo capLure Lhe
problem's complexlLy, yeL noL Loo few Lo
lose slghL of whaL ls lmporLanL.
Context Maps
What you get
?ou wlll ldenufy elghL core dlmenslons
of your currenL problem or opporLunlLy
space. 8y knowlng Lhese dlmenslons,
you can ask Lhe rlghL quesuons LhaL, ln
Lurn, prompL a more lnformed search
for promlslng lnnovauon opporLunlues.
Moreover, Lhls meLhod ls an excellenL
lce-breaker for a new Leam Lo sLarL Lhelr
lnnovauon dlscusslons. ConLexL Maps
also provlde rapld reecuon aL pro[ecL
mllesLones.
&"
Lets look at an example
Slr eLer Pall ls an emlnenL 8rlush
scholar who sLudles Lhe hlsLory of urban
plannlng and deslgn. lor Lhe LxC 2000
World Lxhlbluon, Pall and hls colleague
prepared an exLenslve reporL called
urban luLure 21, ln whlch Lhey ouLllne
a global agenda for 21sL cenLury clues.
A unlverslLy sLudenL Leam used
Pall's reporL Lo galn qulck background
for a class pro[ecL. A ma[or auLo
manufacLurer, whlch sponsored Lhe
sLudenLs' pro[ecL, wlshed Lo undersLand
how premlum LransporLauon would
change ln global megaclues.
Lacklng knowledge of Lhe auLo lndusLry,
Lhe sLudenLs used Lhe ConLexL Map as a
concepLual shorLhand Lo geL sLarLed on
Lhelr pro[ecL and also Lo remember Lhe
maln Lhemes of Lhe reporL.
WlLhouL readlng Lhe reporL yourself,
you can look aL Lhe sLudenLs' ConLexL
Map and also know Lhe elghL key
dlmenslons LhaL Pall felL are lmporLanL
Lo a fuLure ldeal clLy.

r
o
d
u
c
u
v
e

o
p
u
l
a
u
o
n

g
r
o
w
L
h
uemocrauzauon
l
n
v
e
n
u
o
n
C
l
e
a
n
,

g
r
e
e
n
,

h
e
a
l
L
h
y

&

s
a
f
e
C
u
l
L
u
r
a
l
l
y

v
l
b
r
a
n
L
Soclally equlLable
P
a
p
p
y

l
l
v
e
s
IDLAL
CI1
# mpowetloq cluzeos ot locol levels
# 5oclol copltol
Source: eLer Pall and ulrlch feler. 2000.
utboo lotote 21. A Clobol AqeoJo fot 21st ceototy clues.
&#
Instructions
1. Agree on a broad Loplc or
opporLunlLy area your Leam
wanLs Lo pursue. ?ou seL Lhe scale
of Loplc. very broad Loplcs may
requlre several lLerauons.
2. uraw an ouLllne for a ConLexL Map
or use Lhe worksheeL LemplaLe ln
Lhe playbook.
3. SLarL Lalklng wlLh your Leam abouL
your Loplc, noung any sallenL
dlmenslons as Lhey arlse. olnLs
of lnLense dlscusslon or even
dlsagreemenL are good Lo lnclude
ln your ConLexL Map.
4. noLe slde Loplcs and connecuons
around your ConLexL Map. AL
umes, you may [ump Lo creaLe
a Langenual or dlerenL ConLexL
Map. 1haL ls greaL assoclauon.
3. 8epeaL Lhe process unul your Leam
arrlves aL a map (or seL of maps)
LhaL capLures your problem space
sausfacLorlly.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln
Lhe lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe
numbers ln Lhe dlagram.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- wblcb Jlmeosloo JlJ yoo speoJ
tbe most ume Jlscossloq?
- wblcb Jlmeosloo qeoetoteJ tbe
qteotest oombet of poesuoos?
- wblcb Jlmeosloo qeoetoteJ tbe
qteotest oombet of poesuoos
tbot yoo coot ooswet toJoy?
- Afet Jlscossloq os o qtoop, Jo
yoo woot to teJtow tbe cootext
Mop boseJ oo wbot yoo bove
leotoeJ?
&$
ChapLer 3. erspecuve 66

1
. W
e a
g
ree th
a
t w
e
f
irs
t w
a
n
t to
k
n
o
w

h
o
w
ex
p
erts
d
ef
in
e
th
e c
ity
o
f
th
e f
u
tu
re
3. As we talk, we note
the biggest themes in
Halls report, as one
theme per dimension
4. A team member
captures related points
near certain themes,
so we dont forget our
dialogue later
2
. W
e then
sk
etch the
tool ou
tlin
e, w
hich
look
s lik
e a big
flow
er
w
ith eig
ht petals
&%
Drawing insights &
implications
Aer developlng an lnlual ConLexL
Map, Lhe sLudenL Leam reallzed LhaL
populauon growLh and producuvlLy
were only Lwo measuremenLs for Lhe
fuLure developmenL of mega-clues. CLher
lnLanglble and quallLauve aspecLs, such as
personal happlness and culLural vlbrancy,
are essenual Lo clLy dwellers. 1hls lnslghL
changed Lhelr approach Lo daLa collecuon,
and Lhey now looked for a broader seL of
measures.
1he Leam declded Lo Lake Lhelr ConLexL
Maps anoLher sLep furLher. 8ased on a
deeper llLeraLure revlew, Lhey developed
a llsL of Lhe elghL prlmary facLors LhaL
dene a healLhy clLy. 1hey used Lhese
elghL facLors as Lhe basellne for a ConLexL
Map Lo asses Lhe Lop meLropollLan reglons
around Lhe world. 1hey color coded each
dlmenslon (or ower peLal) ln Lhe ConLexL
Map based on Lhe poLenual lmpacL of
change expecLed ln Lhe nexL 20 years.
ln oLher words, Lhe clues all shared Lhe
same dlmenslons buL showed dlerenL
color comblnauons.
uslng sub[ecuve ranklngs, Lhe sLudenLs
made a dlmenslon green for low change,
an orange dlmenslon lndlcaLed moderaLe
change, and a red dlmenslon showed
hlgh change. Aer Lhls exerclse, Lhe Leam
reallzed anoLher lnslghL: none of Lhe meLro
reglons had Lhe same color mapplng for
change. All Lhe clues had a dlerenL color
comblnauon, whlch ralsed new quesuons
abouL Lhe value of a generlc model for
urban growLh. 1he Leam Lhen broughL
more enllghLened quesuons back Lo Lhelr
pro[ecL sponsor.
&&
ChapLer 3. erspecuve 68


W
e realize a blen
d of data-
driven
an
d lifesty
le-
driven
elem
en
ts defin
e a
perfect city

As a variation of
the tool, we changed
the background
color of each
dimension, which
could show varying
levels of expected
change
&'
Tips & lessons from others
- uraw blg maps, preferably on a
whlLeboard or large lp charL so
everyone can see and commenL on
Lhe varlous dlmenslons easlly.
- uon'L worry abouL keeplng Lhe
elghL dlmenslons aL Lhe same level.
1he maln ob[ecuve ls Lo capLure
whaL ls lmporLanL ln conLexL.
- noLe any relaLed polnLs and
quesuons. Someumes Lhe
quesuons are Lhe mosL lnLeresung
Lo revlslL laLer, when your Leam
undersLands more abouL Lhe
problem space and lssues.
- Conslder generaung a ConLexL Map
from an ouLslder's vlew, such as a
suppller or end user, Lo see how
Lhelr Lop dlmenslons compare Lo
an lnLernal Leam or organlzauonal
perspecuve.
- ?ou can always creaLe more
ConLexL Maps. ?ou may wanL Lo
pause mldway Lhrough one map Lo
creaLe a second map ln order noL
Lo lose your group's conversauon
ow.
- Pang or posL compleLed maps
ln publlc vlew, such as near your
desk. ln Lhls way, you can generaLe
conunuous lnslghLs wlLh oLhers,
as well as encourage addluonal
personal reecuon and lncubauon
abouL Lhe lnnovauon Loplc.
kLILLC1ICN
0+/# ;6 #+" 5$2526"3 #25;(>
0+4 32 42' 1/8# #2 5'$6'" ;#>
&(
Additional examples
A ma[or consumer e|ectron|cs company used a
Context Map to rev|ew the|r product poruo||o,
d|scover|ng some |nterna| d|erences |n pr|or|nes.
An Amer|can po||ce force cons|dered how
decreas|ng state funds wou|d |mpact a range of
future p|ann|ng needs.
CkIGINALS MISSING
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
69
CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet
')
Progression Curves represent the
evolution of changes in terms of
technological, social, and other flters.
Progression Curves
WhEn to use it
- 1o undersLand Lhe pauern of evenLs
for a parucular Loplc and how Lhese
evenLs have led Lo lLs currenL sLaLe
WhY its helpful
rogresslon Curves show whaL changes
when. 1hey are a varlanL of Lhe classlc
Lechnology adopuon llfecycle, whlch
ouLllnes Lhe common sLages of user
adopuon over ume.
As you ploL muluple, even over-lapplng
curves, cerLaln pauerns may emerge. lor
example, you may dlscover LhaL a mlnlmum
(or maxlmum) durauon regularly occurs
beLween Lwo polnLs, such as Lhe Lyplcal
cllnlcal Lrlal perlod for Lhe u.S. lederal
urug AdmlnlsLrauon, allowlng you Lo plan
for slmllar lnLervals ln Lhe fuLure.
As anoLher example, lf you ploued Lhe
developmenL of paymenL lnnovauons ln
order Lo undersLand personal banklng,
you would learn LhaL Lhere have been only
a few ma[or breakLhroughs ln hlsLory-
such as, smarL cards wlLh mlcrochlps ln
Lhe 1990s.
Moreover, laLer sLages bulld on earller
sLages. ln many cases, cerLaln sLeps
cannoL be sklpped wlLhln your lndusLry
or organlzauon, so lf you expecL a slmllar
pauern of evenLs Lo conunue ln Lhe fuLure,
you can anuclpaLe whlch sLep wlll llkely
happen nexL. 1hls ls useful knowledge
when plannlng ahead.
What you get
rogresslon Curves exLends Lhe famlllar
umellne. 1hls meLhod puLs evenL
umellnes, lndusLry llfecycles, and oLher
developmenLs ln hlsLorlcal conLexL
relevanL Lo your Loplc. 8y ldenufylng
repeaLed pauerns, you know whaL Lo
expecL ln Lhe fuLure. 1he use of muluple
layers of daLa helps you ldenufy pauerns
LhaL mlghL have escaped your auenuon
prevlously.
'!
Source: SanLhl Llayaperumal, SLanford unlverslLy, ML410, 2008
Lets look at an example
An englneerlng graduaLe sLudenL wanLed
Lo lnvesugaLe Lhe fuLure of robouc surgery,
especlally uslng lnLeracuve Louchscreens,
ln 20 years. She had hands-on experlence
ln Lhe research lab and also as an englneer
for Lwo medlal devlce companles.
1he sLudenL developed muluple
rogresslon Curves Lo capLure Lhe
emerglng sLaLe of Lhe eld, as dened
ln 2008. urawlng from a mlx of prlmary
and secondary sources, plus her
own knowledge, she looked aL Lhe
evoluuon of pro[ecuon-based dlsplays,
lnLeracuve dlsplays, hapuc lnLerfaces,
lndusLrlal roboL arms, mlnlmally lnvaslve
surgery Lechnlques, medlcal roboLs, and
medlcal lmaglng-Lraclng many hlsLorlcal
developmenLs back Lo Lhe 1930s.
1
1roll 1ouch Louchscreen
sold commerclally
(1990)
lhone lnLroduced
(!an 2007)
Synapucs 1ouchad
lnLerface launched
(1993)
P lnLroduces
1ouchSmarL lC770
C (SepL 2007)
lMac MuluLouch
concepL vldeos publlc
(SepL 2007)
1roll 1ouch shlps lMacs
wlLh Louchscreens (uec
2007)
1roll 1ouch LsL.
(1987)
Synaplcs
founded
(1986)
Wacom LsL
(!apan, 1983)
Sharp demonsLraLes
muluLouch LCu screen
wlLh embedded opucal
sensors (CcL 2007 )
Cypress lnLroduces
CapSense (!uly 2007)
LlghL 8lue Cpucs
lnLroduces mlcro
holographlc pro[ecLor
(Cambrldge, 2004)
1
'"
Instructions
1. ldenufy your sLarung Loplc.
?our Leam could descrlbe pasL
developmenLs for your ldea,
company, lndusLry, socleLy,
Lechnology area, eLc. Some Leams
refer Lo Lhelr lasL ConLexL Map,
developlng a rogresslon Curve
per dlmenslon.
2. uraw a long s-curve. ?ou can
always exLend Lhls curve or llnk
oLher curves Lo lL laLer. 1he helghL
or lengLh of Lhe curve are largely
symbollc.
3. 8egln plomng key evenLs LhaL
have lnuenced or changed ln
LhaL space, esumaung daLes when
necessary. 1he farLhesL le end
polnL on Lhe curve ls seL by you,
golng as far back ln ume as you
wlsh. 1he farLhesL rlghL end polnL
represenLs Loday because you are
noL looklng Lo pro[ecL Lhe fuLure.
4. Add more daLa polnLs along Lhe
curve. ?ou may mlx a varleLy of
daLa polnLs, such as hlsLorlcal
daLes, ma[or evenLs, people,
company mllesLones, and soclal
movemenLs.
3. uraw more curves LhaL lnLersecL,
exLend, and even overlap wlLh
your rsL curve.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- wblcb Jlmeosloo JlJ yoo beqlo
wltb? wby?
- wbo coo yoo cootoct to vetlfy
umelloes ooJ fll lo ooy qops?
- Ate yoo sotptlseJ by bow looq
(ot polckly) ptoqtess tokes?
- wos lt eoslet to oJJ exomples
ooJ ocuvlues yoot teom wos
petsooolly lovolveJ lo? wby?
'#
2 laybook lor SLraLeglc loreslghL & lnnovauon
1. After reviewing my
Context Map, I decide to
look at the evolution of
interactive touchscreens
for my first Progression
Curve
2. I draw a wavy line quickly,
knowing that I can always extend
an end point or format later.
4. I add more data points from history,
realizing that I will want to continue
extending this curve during the course of
my research program
3. I keep my first pass
simple, noting major
developments and dates
that help me understand
how the field has
developed
DLSIGN NC1L
* new dlagram
* All new
annoLauons
'$
Drawing insights &
implications
As parL of her analysls, Lhe graduaLe
sLudenL ldenued Lhe currenL ma[or
players ln Lhe compuLer, gamlng, and
servlce lndusLrles, whlch gave her a shorL
llsL of companles Lo waLch as eld leaders.
ln addluon, Lhe exerclse helped her Lo
rene her research quesuons, shaplng
her perspecuve Loward ndlng Lhe rlghL
opporLunlLy. lor example, Lhree quesuons
were sharpened Lo: (a) Pow do docLors
see" and feel" Lhe pauenLs anaLomy
durlng mlnlmally lnvaslve surgery?, (b)
WhaL are currenL challenges wlLh Lele-
operauons?, and (c) WhaL are some
currenL advances ln medlcal lmaglng?

Tips & lessons from others
- news arucles and company ume-
llnes can provlde helpful daLa, oen
llsung lmporLanL mllesLones and
daLes.
- uon'L rely enurely on Leam
knowledge, whlch can someumes
serve Lo valldaLe exlsung blases.
- Clder experLs may nd Lhls
exerclse easler Lo do because Lhey
Lyplcally have more sLorles and
llfe experlences Lo draw on Lhan
younger colleagues.
- Many pro[ecL Leams can Lrace Lhelr
umellnes back Lo Creek hlsLory
or Shakespearean llLeraLure. 1hls
shouldn'L be a surprlse. Many
aspecLs of humanlLy have Lhelr
rooLs ln Lhese unlversal accounLs.
- 1he curve helghL ls symbollc
for change, some people llke Lo
draw Laller elevauons relaLed Lo
Lhe varylng levels of adopuon or
growLh. 1haL ls opuonal exLra work.
kLILLC1ICN
0+2 /$" 629" "M5"$#6 42'
(/8 /6) 72$ #+";$ 1;6329>
'%
4 laybook lor SLraLeglc loreslghL & lnnovauon
This method helps me
become a fast expert of
this topic, allowing me
to quickly identify the
major players in the
field at different points
Overall, I am able to refine my
questions for finding potential
future applications in robotic
surgery
DLSIGN NC1L
* new dlagram
* All new
annoLauons
'&
Additional examples
A transportanon serv|ces prov|der
|n South Afr|ca exam|ned the
evo|unon of the|r |ndustry, draw|ng
doued ||nes between re|ated
events and eras.
A team from a Luropean consu|nng
hrm d|scussed the emerg|ng he|d
of c|oud compunng serv|ces, see|ng
wh|ch areas changed outs|de
techno|ogy.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
''
PROGRESSION CURVES | method worksheet
'(
As Lhe llnnlsh fundlng agency for
Lechnology and lnnovauon, 1ekes ls
Lhe mosL lmporLanL publlcly funded
experL organlzauon for nanclng
research, developmenL, and lnnovauon
ln llnland. 1he agency boosLs wlde-
ranglng lnnovauon acuvlues ln research
communlues, lndusLry, and servlce
secLors across Lhe counLry. 1aklng a
broad-based vlew on lnnovauon, 1ekes
funds Lechnologlcal breakLhroughs and
also emphaslzes Lhe slgnlcance of
servlce-relaLed, deslgn, buslness, and
soclal lnnovauons. Lvery year, 1ekes
nances some 1300 buslness research
and developmenL pro[ecLs and almosL 600
publlc research pro[ecLs aL unlverslues,
research lnsuLuLes and polyLechnlcs.
Slnce 2007, 1ekes has focused on
renewlng servlces and producuon
by dlglLal means." Cne of Lhe ma[or
exlsung lnvesLmenLs under Lhls focus
area has been Lhe ublcom-Lmbedded
lC1 2007-2013 program. ublcom was
bullL from over 300 publlc research and
lndusLrlal research and developmenL
(8&u) pro[ecLs havlng over t200 mllllon
pro[ecL volume. ublcom pro[ecLs focused
on bulldlng research compeLences and
demonsLraung new soluuons based on
dlsLrlbuLed compuung and embedded
lnformauon compuLer Lechnology (lC1)
sysLems. A 13-person sLeerlng group,
whose members came from companles,
research lnsuLuuons, and 1ekes, advlsed
Lhe overall dlrecuon and execuuon of Lhe
ublcom program.
The challenge: Following
the steps of a successful
research program
A program manager and chlef Lechnology
advlser aL 1ekes, klmmo Ahola was
responslble for managlng ublcom as
one of Lhe agency's largesL long-Lerm
Lechnology programs. Aer nearly ve
successful years, Ahola now faced a blg
challenge: whaL was nexL aer ublcom?
1he program would conclude ln 2013,
leavlng open many resources LhaL could
be applled Lo a new sLraLeglc program.
CASE STUDY | Crafting a new vision after Ubicom
Ahola wlshed Lo redeslgn a new
program so lL could meeL Lhe challenges
of Lomorrow ln Lerms of boLh sLrucLure
and conLenL. Pe knew LhaL slmply
copylng Lhe prevlous success formula of
ublcom would noL guaranLee anoLher
ve years of success because Lhe world
has seen many slgnlcanL changes slnce
Lhe program was lnluaLed.
Among many Loplcs, Ahola wanLed
Lo know whlch Lypes of organlzauons
should be funded, whaL Lhe overall
scale of Lhe program could be, how Lo
encourage collaborauon beLween funded
organlzauons, how Lo ue ln forelgn
sLakeholders and allgn Lhe program
wlLh global parLners, whaL Lechnologles
should be aL Lhe cenLer of Lhe program,
and how Lhese Lechnologles would relaLe
sysLemlcally.
79
The approach: Two days of
expert prototyping
Ahola declded Lo apply Lhe foreslghL and
lnnovauon meLhods ln an lnLenslve Lwo-
day workshop. lL was scheduled Lo overlap
wlLh a prevlously scheduled ublcom
board meeung, so he could ensure LhaL
Lhe program's crlucal sLakeholders would
be presenL. 1he rsL day lnvolved Lhe
ublcom board members, as well as key
senlor execuuves and 1ekes program
managers, who focused on explorlng
varlous research Lhemes and poLenual
program models for Lhe nexL sLage of
ublcom. Ahola seL Lhe day's agenda by
brley revlewlng Lhe program's orlglnal
vlslon and hlsLory, and he used Lhe
meLhods Lo help frame hls presenLauon.
Several paruclpanLs reLurned on Lhe
second day, helplng Lo Lransfer Lhelr
knowledge as well as hear from a broader
communlLy. 1he second day lncluded
nearly Lwo dozen research sclenusLs and
Lechnlcal speclallsLs, who delved deeper
Lo propose promlslng areas of focus
and proLoLype seedllngs" for program
conLenL. 1he bulk of dlscusslon occurred
ln muluple small Leams, so LhaL a greaLer
dlverslLy of Lhemes could be explored
and all paruclpanLs would have Lhe
opporLunlLy Lo conLrlbuLe.
Ahola found Lhe workshop Lo be
helpful ln many ways. Pe sald, lL allgned
paruclpanLs Loward a common LargeL ln
very fasL and engaglng way." racucally,
lL was also easler Lo auracL paruclpanLs
Lo commlL Lo Lwo days away from work,
when Lhey learned a new seL of meLhods
and also galned a fresh vlew for Lhelr
own company use. 1he meLhods opened
new unexpecLed ways Lo approach
Lhe plannlng Lask, whlch provlded a
mouvaung experlence for everyone.
ln addluon, Lhe meLhodology provlded
a exlble sLrucLure Lo gulde group
plannlng. Ahola added, A clear sLrengLh
of Lhls large seL of Lools ls LhaL can be
applled ln any order or level of depLh."
Workshop Leams used Lhe meLhods Lo go
from broad conLexLs Lo speclc problem
semngs dependlng on Lhelr ob[ecuves.
Creaung a program sLrucLure necesslLaLed
a wlde lnlual perspecuve, and once
program boundarles were llghLly dened,
Leams used Lhe meLhods Lo qulckly
nd Lhe key LargeLs Lo be addressed.
Moreover, Lhe meLhods le freedom Lo
ne-Lune Lhe resulLs, allowlng room for
smaller lLem documenLauon aL Lhe same
ume. 1hls helped Ahola Lake Lhe resulLs
from Lhe workshop and lnLegraLe Lhem
wlLh larger plannlng eorLs aL 1ekes.
()
Source: klmmo Ahola, 1ekes, 2012
The result:
A new vision, a new program
1he workshop generaLed Lhe
foundaLlon for Lhe new program
focus, currenLly known by lLs worklng
LlLle All 1hlngs on neLworks" (A1Cn).
1he workshop maLerlal provlded
Lhe basls of new plannlng guldellnes
for A1Cn, whlch focuses on fundlng
small neLworks of subconLracLors (1-6
parLners). ln Lhe conLexL of A1Cn,
Lhese subconLracLor neLworks wlll
lnlLlally supporL Lhe research acLlvlLles
of large companles and Lhen become
dedlcaLed subconLracLors ln laLer
sLages. Ahola envlslons LhaL Lhls model
wlll Lruly moLlvaLe Lhe co-developmenL
of lnLellecLual properLy (l) beLween
dlfferenL subconLracLors and large
corporaLlons. lL wlll sLrengLhen Lhe
poslLlon of small and medlum slzed
enLerprlses (SMLs) by lnLegraLlng
Lhem lnLo an l-based clusLer of oLher
SMLs and large corporaLlons. 1he
program ls envlsloned Lo also fund
Lhe developmenL of new lnnovaLlon
clusLers LhaL cross naLlonal borders.
A smaller seL of meLhods wlll conLlnue
Lo reflne Lhe A1Cn vlslon. Cne ldea ls
Lo develop a seL of grand challenges
LhaL wlll Lhen lnform more speclflc
fundlng efforLs ln dlfferenL lndusLrlal
secLors. ln parLlcular, Ahola sees LhaL
Lhe uA8A Pard 1esL wlll help valldaLe
Lhe vlslonary poLenLlal of A1Cn's grand
challenges. LasLly, Ahola lnLends Lo use
Lhe foreslghL and lnnovaLlon meLhods
as vlsual LemplaLes Lo communlcaLe Lhe
new program and lLs ouLcomes wlLhln
1ekes and Lo oLher sLakeholders.
lundlng,
lnformauon
sharlng,
neLworks
lnLroduce new
beneLs Lo
buslness and
publlc
Lxperlence
ellglble
soluuons
Selze
commerclal
success
Mlsslon:
Lngage
lnLernauonal
8&u plauorms,
markeL lnfo
Mlsslon: losLer
Cooperauon,
neLworklng
Mlsslon: 8ulld
capablllues,
rlsk fundlng
Crow venLures
lnLernauonally
Ln[oy LrusLed
publlclLy for
llnland
(!
Janus Cones looks backwards and
forwards in time to identify the timing
of historical events and how timing
affects potential future events.
Janus Cones
WhEn to use it
- 1o become a fasL experL of your
Loplc's background
- 1o dlscern a posslble pauern of
relauonshlps among many relaLed
(and even unrelaLed) evenLs
WhY its helpful
PlsLory ls oen Lold by Lhe wlnners,
who presenL one vlew of an evenL.
1here are always oLher vlews. 1he !anus
Cones meLhod overcomes Lhe llmlLs
of a survlvor's blas by helplng you see
muluple evenLs LhaL have converged
Lo Lhe domlnanL undersLandlng ln Lhe
presenL ume.
1he cenLer of Lwo cones marks Loday.
1he le cone faces Lhe pasL. 1he furLher
back ln ume you go, Lhe fuzzler human
memory becomes. 1he rlghL cone faces
forward ln ume, equally murky and
unknowable Lhe furLher ouL ln ume you
go-whaL fuLurlsLs llke Lo call a cone of
uncerLalnLy".
luLure pauerns oen reecL, buL do
no necessarlly repeaL, pasL pauerns.
Powever, only ln hlndslghL do (mosL)
pauerns become clear. Many evenLs,
whlch may noL seem relaLed, can lnuence
one anoLher.
What you get
!anus Cones leLs you release Lhe sLrlcL
llnear assumpuons of evenLs, allowlng
Lo vlew muluple, overlapplng, and
lnLersecung evenLs ln a slngle shared
framework aL once. Lach verucal marker
denoLes a speclc ume perlod, such
as 3 or 10 years, golng lncremenLally
backwards or forwards.
("
Lets look at an example
An lnLernauonal pro[ecL Leam wanLed Lo
undersLand Amerlcan bellefs ln drlvlng
and how Lhese bellefs had evolved ln
recenL decades. 1he Leam had already
analyzed Lhe usual lndusLry Lrends,
markeL sLausucs, medla revlews, and
company reporLs. now Lhey needed a
more hollsuc vlew, whlch a umellne or
ple charL couldn'L presenL as well.
1he Leam developed a group snapshoL
of 100+ years of Amerlcan bellefs, sLarung
wlLh Lhe lnvenuon of Lhe rsL modern
auLomoblle and leadlng up Lo currenL
vlews of Lhe car as an exLenslon of
llfesLyle. 1hrough Lhls exerclse, Lhe Leam
became fasL experLs ln Lhe Loplc and,
more lmporLanLly, developed a shared
language LhaL broughL Lhem LogeLher as
a group aL Lhe sLarL of Lhe pro[ecL.

Mobility as a
basic need
1odoy 1880s 1900s 1920s 1940s 190s 1980s
Parking is
an issue
Urban planners
design for roads
and transport
New paradigm
of commuting
Time spent
traveling in cars
Traffic jams
Rush hour
Concept of
alone time
in cars with self
or others
Variety of
car models
Car as a
lifestyle /
status symbol
Dangers of
driving
Family trips
& activities
by car
Car tinkering
passions
Rising costs of
car ownership
Cars as
displays of
wealth
Seat belt
safety
campaigns
Driving as a rite
of passage
(first license)
Cars
shipped
as luggage
Stress of
car buying
Infrastructure
funding
Multiple cars
in a family
Different car
by life stage
Source: 1amara CarleLon, SLanford unlverslLy, ML410, 2008
(#
Instructions
1. uraw an open cone faclng le Loward Lhe
pasL. 1he rlghL polnL represenLs Loday.
2. 1alk abouL whaL has happened or
changed leadlng up Lo Loday's vlews
and assumpuons for your Loplc.
ldenufy ma[or polnLs ln ume, such as a
company foundlng (e.g., CenenLech ln
Lhe bloLech lndusLry). loL Lhese daLa
polnLs lnslde Lhe cone, placlng earller
ones furLher back ln ume Lhan more
recenL polnLs.
3. now draw approprlaLe ume markers
under Lhe cone, such as 1990s"
or 2000," Lo help you clusLer and
organlze daLa polnLs by ume perlod.
4. uraw correspondlng ume arcs Lo Lhose
daLes. 1hese arcs wlll be verucal.
3. Add more daLa polnLs so LhaL you
compleLe your Leam's knowledge
and ll ln all ume perlods as much as
posslble.

- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an annoLaLed
example. 1he numbers ln Lhe lnsLrucuons
correspond Lo Lhe numbers ln Lhe dlagram.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- now fot bock lo ume Jo yoot
Iooos cooes qo? wby to tbot
polot lo ume?
- lf yoo ovetlolJ yoot
ltoqtessloo cotves oo tbe
Iooos cooes umelloe, JlJ
ooytbloq sotptlse yoo?
- ulJ yoo tty oJJloq eveots tbot
cbooqeJ socletys omtoJes
(socb os tbe 8tlusb lovosloo) ot
boJ looq-tetm e[ects (socb os
tbe Jot-com bobble)?
- wbo coo yoo cootoct to fll lo
qops lo yoot mop?
($

Mobility as a
basic need
1odoy 1880s 1900s 1920s 1940s 190s 1980s
Parking is
an issue
Urban planners
design for roads
and transport
New paradigm
of commuting
Time spent
traveling in cars
Traffic jams
Rush hour
Concept of
alone time
in cars with self
or others
Variety of
car models
Car as a
lifestyle /
status symbol
Dangers of
driving
Family trips
& activities
by car
Car tinkering
passions
Rising costs of
car ownership
Cars as
displays of
wealth
Seat belt
safety
campaigns
Driving as a rite
of passage
(first license)
Cars
shipped
as luggage
Stress of
car buying
Infrastructure
funding
Multiple cars
in a family
Different car
by life stage
ChapLer 3. erspecuve 86
1. Our priority is to focus on the
past, so we sketch a big cone on
the whiteboard with its nose
pointing right to today
2. One of the first
comments is about
Fords assembly line,
which led to a
consumer choice
in cars, so we note this
historical point
somewhere far left
inside the cone
3. After a few more data points, we see the
timeframe emerge, so we note the major time
periods in 20-year increments under the cone
4. W
e draw
vertical arcs across the con
e to help
us cluster data poin
ts by
these tim
e in
crem
en
ts
5. W
e add m
ore data points
so that the cone feels com
plete
to our team

(%
Drawing insights &
implications
1he Leam members came from varlous
backgrounds: producL and graphlc deslgn,
englneerlng, pro[ecL managemenL, and
markeung. 1he !anus Cones meLhod
provlded a neuLral common ground LhaL
allowed Lhem Lo seL aslde Lhelr preexlsung
concepuons and dlsclpllne blases, so LhaL
Lhey could focus on developlng a shared
vlew of whaL happened Lo arrlve aL
Loday's sLaLe of knowledge.
As Lhe Leam examlned Amerlcan
amLudes Loward drlvlng cars, Lhey reallzed
LhaL Lhe denluon of premlum" has
changed over ume, sLarung wlLh premlum
as dlsplays of wealLh and laLely becomlng
premlum as an ellLe experlence. 1helr
undersLandlng of premlum helped Lhem
see LhaL Amerlcan drlvers ln Lhe fuLure,
as well as around Lhe world, wlll conunue
Lo evolve Lhelr vlews of whaL premlum
means ln cars.
A Lhlrd lesson was LhaL Lhe Leam saw
how much Amerlcan medla, parucularly
malnsLream movles from Pollywood,
had lnuenced Lhelr assumpuons of Lhe
Amerlcan drlvlng experlence LhroughouL
dlerenL hlsLorlcal eras. 1hls blas was
noL as apparenL when Lhey had analyzed
earller daLa reporLs.
kLILLC1ICN
0+2 $"9"9:"$6 #+" +;6#2$4
in your qroup ond orqonitonon?
(&

Mobility as a
basic need
1odoy 1880s 1900s 1920s 1940s 190s 1980s
Parking is
an issue
Urban planners
design for roads
and transport
New paradigm
of commuting
Time spent
traveling in cars
Traffic jams
Rush hour
Concept of
alone time
in cars with self
or others
Variety of
car models
Car as a
lifestyle /
status symbol
Dangers of
driving
Family trips
& activities
by car
Car tinkering
passions
Rising costs of
car ownership
Cars as
displays of
wealth
Seat belt
safety
campaigns
Driving as a rite
of passage
(first license)
Cars
shipped
as luggage
Stress of
car buying
Infrastructure
funding
Multiple cars
in a family
Different car
by life stage
W
e discover the m
ajority of our group
knows the last 15 years well from

personal experience and then relies on
m
ovies and grandparent anecdotes for
knowledge about the prior years
We start to see a pattern about the changing
definition of premium in cars, starting with
premium as wealth displays
Due to our groups varied
backgrounds, the Janus
Cones became a useful
neutral tool to bring us
quickly together
('
Tips & lessons from others
- ?our Louch polnLs may lnclude
slgnlcanL producL launches (e.g.,
1aLa's nano), hlsLorlcal mllesLones
(e.g., fall of 8erlln wall), medla
examples (e.g., L.1. movle), and
personal sLorles (e.g., grandma's
rsL moblle phone)-whaLever
helps you Lo develop broader
conLexL for your parucular Loplc.
See Lhe ad[acenL Lable for example
Louch polnLs.
- ?ou can overlay muluple
rogresslon Curves on Lop of your
!anus Cones Lo help you see more
pauerns ln conLexL. use Lhe daLes
Lo help you allgn Lhe Lwo meLhods.
- Look back Lwlce aL leasL Lwlce as
far as you wanL Lo look ahead. 1hls
advlce ls a core prlnclple of good
forecasung.
- use real daLes, such as 2003"
lnsLead of -10," so you have clear
Louch polnLs for fuLure reference.
- We sLrongly advlse all users Lo focus
rsL on compleung Lhe pasL (le)
cone because hlsLory provldes Lhe
besL record for fuLure learnlng.
Advanced users can learn Lo pencll
ln planned or scheduled fuLure
evenLs from Lhelr company's 8&u
roadmaps and oLher pro[ecL plans
on Lhe fuLure (rlghL) cone. lease
keep ln mlnd LhaL fuLure evenLs are
slmply placeholders and wlshes.
Category Lxamp|e touch po|nts
&*#4"+0
# Company foundlng
# roducL launch
# arLnershlp deal
# ManagemenL change
# 8evenue mllesLones
Nanon
# CovernmenL change
# new LreaLy
# Lconomlc evenL
# Ma[or hlsLorlc evenL
# Sporung achlevemenL
Soc|ety
# opular movle
# Sclence cuon book
# Ma[or culLural evenL
# CulLural amLude or bellef
1echno|ogy
# lnvenuon
# roducL adopuon
ersona|
# llrsL purchase
# Ma[or llfe declslon
# lamlly memorles
((
Additional examples
A Luropean med|a company used
the Ianus Cones method to exam|ne
changes |n work space and work
cu|ture for an |nterna| |n|nanve.
Sma|| bus|ness owners |n South
Afr|ca rev|ewed the|r country's
dramanc deve|opments s|nce the
1970s, espec|a||y |n educanon and
|nfrastructure.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
JANUS CONES | method worksheet
90
lf yoo Joo't tblok oboot tbe fotote,
yoo coooot bove ooe.
*N2+8 I/.612$#+4, oqllsb wtltet
(5woo 5ooq, 1928)
Ablllty ls ootbloq wltboot oppottoolty.
-Aoooymoos
(ofeo outlboteJ to Nopoleoo 8ooopotte)
91
OPPORTUNITY
ChaptER 4
Shortcuts
Phase II: Opportunity 92
Generational Arcs 94
Future User 103
Viewpoint: Acting out 113
Futuretelling 114
92
Now that you have developed
some perspective about your
problem's space, how do you fnd
the emerging opportunity?
1he ob[ecuve ls Lo develop an ablllLy Lo
see growLh opporLunlues LhaL exlsL Loday
and could exLend lnLo Lhe fuLure. 1hls
sLep ls crlucal Lo selecung Lhe rlghL paLh
Lo pursue because Loday's opporLunlues
become Lomorrow's lnnovauons.
1hls phase makes Lwo [umps from
Lhe prlor phase. llrsL, you wlll move
from worklng ln Lhe pasL lnLo Lhe fuLure.
Second, you wlll move from a focus on
Lhe problem Lo a focus on Lhe people.
1hls phase Lakes a user-cenLrlc
approach. 1hls phase denes users"
broadly, whlch may lnclude end users,
cusLomers, suppllers, parLners, and oLher
roles as relevanL Lo your problem or Loplc
area. 1hls helps you ldenufy an unmeL
publlc need.
Phase II: Opportunity
1he meLhods ln Lhls phase are
deslgned Lo undersLand Lhe user from
Lhree levels of analysls: a macro vlew, a
mlcro vlew, and a narrauve vlew. A macro
vlew conslders change from a grand
scale, a mlcro vlew conslders change on
a personal scale, and Lhe narrauve vlew
conslders change ln Lerms of a sLory. 8y
developlng a beuer undersLandlng of
your users ln Lhe fuLure, you lncrease
Lhe chances LhaL your opporLunlLy Lruly
meeLs Lhelr needs.
1hree meLhods can help you nd
promlslng opporLunlues qulckly:
- Cenerauonal Arcs
- luLure user
- luLureLelllng
9J
PHASE II: OPPORTUNITY
1he second phase develops an ablllLy
Lo see growLh opporLunlues LhaL exlsL
Loday and exLend lnLo Lhe fuLure by
undersLandlng fuLure cusLomer changes.
Generanona|
Arcs vlews Lhe
demographlc
changes and
generauonal
vlews of a LargeL
populauon.
- page 94
Iuture User
proles your
fuLure cusLomer
based on whaL
wlll (and wlll noL)
change from
Loday's cusLomer.
- page 103
Iuturete|||ng
uses llve LheaLer
Lo lllusLraLe a
parucular user
need as a reallsuc
scene from Lhe
fuLure.
- page 114
uesnons thot drive
#+;6 5+/6"L
- wblcb bebovlots ote emetqloq
tbot wlll sbope ot lofoeoce oew
oppottoolues lo tbe fotote?
- wblcb mojot cbooqes oboot
people ovet ume, socb os
popolouoo movemeots ooJ
qeoetouoool sblfs, coo we
lJeoufy ooJ ooJetstooJ tbot
o[ect fotote cbooqes?
- wbot mlqbt we expect ftom
fotote osets ooJ costomets?
94
Generational Arcs identifes and
tracks population changes in terms
of life stages and other generational
variables.
WhEn to use it
- 1o evaluaLe a new markeL or
expecLed markeL change
- 1o anuclpaLe ma[or dlsrupuons
ln demographlc sLrucLures wlLhln
a LargeL markeL or cusLomer
populauon
- 1o analyze a dlerenL or younger
user base relauve Lo your currenL
user base
WhY its helpful
AnalysLs llke Lo say LhaL demographlcs
ls desuny" because Lhey belleve a
populauon's slze and makeup deLermlne a
nauon's fuLure. Llke many generallzauons,
Lhere ls some LruLh Lo Lhls bellef.
eLer urucker, oen called Lhe faLher of
modern managemenL, felL LhaL changes
ln demographlcs are unamblguous and
have Lhe mosL predlcLable consequences.
?ou can use demographlcs as a way Lo
forecasL clearly from facLs known Loday.
1he Cenerauonal Arcs comblnes Lhe
sLausucal power of demographlcs wlLh a
Generational Arcs
quallLauve undersLandlng of generauonal
behavlor Lo glean even greaLer lnslghLs
of fuLure users. Cenerauonal lnformauon
lncludes soclal values, career needs,
and Lechnology amLudes LhaL help you
undersLand whaL mouvaLes dlerenL
groups of people. Moreover, each
generauon ls dened by a domlnanL
bellef sysLem, whlch Lhey carry forward ln
Lhelr llfe and work hablLs.
What you get
8aslc demographlc deLalls wlll Lell you a
LargeL populauon's slze and soclo-economlc
slLuauon. Coupled wlLh generauonal
characLerlsucs, you wlll also learn abouL a
group's behavlors, values, and bellefs LhaL
dene Lhem Loday and ln Lhe fuLure. ?ou
can Lhen use Lhls knowledge Lo valldaLe
your currenL markeL composluon and
also Lo prepare for any cruclal changes
LhaL wlll occur for Lhe fuLure user prole.
ulumaLely, you wlll ldenufy exacLly who
your fuLure users are Loday and who Lhey
wlll become ln Lhe fuLure.
95
Lets look at an example
Cne of Lhe world's Lop banks sells many
of lLs nanclal producLs Lo one LargeL
markeL ln Lurope, whlch has proven Lo
be a dependenL and slzable group of
cusLomers ln Lhe lasL decade. Members
of Lhls populauon are largely aMuenL
male professlonals ln Lhelr mld Lo laLe
40s ln age.
ln Lhe nexL 20 years, Lhe bank Leam saw
LhaL Lhls cusLomer base would conunue
aglng, as Lhey enLered Lhelr early 60s.
1helr needs would shl Lo reuremenL,
whlch was backed by company research
sLudles.
Powever, lf Lhe bank conunued
Largeung Lhe 40-year-olds, Lhen Lhls
prlmary group would decrease by roughly
140,000 cluzens, whlch equaLed Lo nearly
a quarLer of Lhelr currenL cusLomer base.
WlLhouL lmmlgrauon, Lhe counLry's
poLenual labor force-Lhose beLween
Lhe ages of 18 and 62-would shrlnk by
18.2 mllllon, or roughly 40 percenL, by
2030.
Addluonal daLa showed LhaL members
of Lhe older generauon valued Lradluon
and sLaLe securlLy. ln conLrasL, under
more nanclal pressure Lhan prevlous
generauons, Lhe rlslng generauon was
seen as aglle mulu-Laskers wlLh llule
loyalLy Lo employers or Lhe governmenL.
Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls Oxygenz Country Report: Germany, 2010
AGE DISTRIBUTION
-table comes here!
700
600
300
400
300
200
100
0
2010 opulauon 2030 ro[ecLed
2
0
1
0

u
L
A
1
l
C
n
(
l
n

L
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
,

m
l
d
y
e
a
r
)
0
-
4
3
-
9
1
0
-
1
4
1
3
-
1
9
2
0
-
2
4
2
3
-
2
9
3
0
-
3
4
3
3
-
3
9
4
0
-
4
4
4
3
-
4
9
3
0
-
3
4
3
3
-
3
9
6
0
-
6
4
6
3
-
6
9
7
0
-
7
4
7
3
-
7
9
8
0
-
8
4
8
3
-
8
9
9
0
-
9
4
9
3
-
9
9
1
0
0
+
ACL ulS18l8u1lCn
CLnL8A1lCn ?
- 8orn 1981-1990
- 12 of populauon
- Crew up aer Lhe fall of
8erlln Wall ln 1989
- Saw global exporLs rlse
- value susLalnablllLy,
soclal neLworklng
- LnLerlng workforce
8A8? 8CCML8S
- 8orn 1943-1963
- 29 of populauon
- Crew up under ausLere economlcs
- aruclpaLed ln Lhe counLry's reunlcauon
- urove lndusLrlallzauon
- value securlLy, culLural Lradluon,
producuvlLy
- lannlng reuremenL
96
Instructions
1. SelecL a counLry, reglon, or
parucular group as your popula-
uon of sLudy.
2. llnd a credlble source for your
group's populauon records, such
as Lhe World 8ank, u.S. Census
8ureau, or LurosLaL. See Lhe
appendlx for a llsL of daLa sources.
3. loL Lhe number of people llvlng
aL each age (or age range) from
blrLh Lo 100 years old. opulauon
numbers wlll be on Lhe y-axls, and
age ranges wlll be along Lhe x-axls.
4. noLe Lhe domlnanL generauonal
groups llvlng under Lhe popula-
uon curve.
3. uescrlbe each generauon's
domlnanL bellefs, values, and
amLudes.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- lookloq ot yoot poteouol
motket, ls tbe ovetoll tteoJ
qtowloq, sbtlokloq, ot splky?
- lf yoot cboseo motket bos o
Jemoqtopblc JlvlJeoJ, wbot ote
tbe lmpllcouoos?
- lf yoot cboseo motket ls
becomloq o qetootoctocy, wbot
ote tbe lmpllcouoos?
- lookloq ot tbe qeoetouoool
cbooqes, wblcb ooe foctot ot
ospect woolJ yoo totqet lo eocb
qeoetouoo lo 10 yeots?
20 yeots? J0 yeots?
97
Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls Oxygenz Country Report: Germany, 2010
700
600
300
400
300
200
100
0
2010 opulauon 2030 ro[ecLed
2
0
1
0

u
L
A
1
l
C
n
(
l
n

L
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
,

m
l
d
y
e
a
r
)
0
-
4
3
-
9
1
0
-
1
4
1
3
-
1
9
2
0
-
2
4
2
3
-
2
9
3
0
-
3
4
3
3
-
3
9
4
0
-
4
4
4
3
-
4
9
3
0
-
3
4
3
3
-
3
9
6
0
-
6
4
6
3
-
6
9
7
0
-
7
4
7
3
-
7
9
8
0
-
8
4
8
3
-
8
9
9
0
-
9
4
9
3
-
9
9
1
0
0
+
ACL ulS18l8u1lCn
CLnL8A1lCn ?
- 8orn 1981-1990
- 12 of populauon
- Crew up aer Lhe fall of
8erlln Wall ln 1989
- Saw global exporLs rlse
- value susLalnablllLy,
soclal neLworklng
- LnLerlng workforce
8A8? 8CCML8S
- 8orn 1943-1963
- 29 of populauon
- Crew up under ausLere economlcs
- aruclpaLed ln Lhe counLry's reunlcauon
- urove lndusLrlallzauon
- value securlLy, culLural Lradluon,
producuvlLy
- lannlng reuremenL


1
. W
e d
ecid
e to focu
s
on
ou
r
cou
n
try
a
s
th
e p
rim
a
ry

ta
rg
et p
op
u
la
tion

2. We rely on World Bank
reports, plus company records,
as our primary data sources
3. W
e decide to present both todays data and the estim
ated shift in 20 years (without
accounting for any im
m
igration changes)
4. We then write down
some characteristics of
the different generations
98
Drawing insights &
implications
1hrough Lhe Cenerauonal Arcs meLhod,
Lhe Leam dlscovered several lmpllcauons
for buslness plannlng. As Lhe bank's core
cusLomer base conunued Lo age ln Lhe
nexL 3-10 years, Lhey would sLay loyal
senlor cusLomers, and Lhe company could
rlde Lhls wave easlly.
Powever, Lhe rlslng generauon of
workers, who would be Lhe nexL loglcal
seL of cusLomers ln Lhe bank's LargeL
age range, were a slgnlcanLly smaller
populauon. WlLhouL dolng anyLhlng,
Lhe bank's core markeL (and resulung
revenue) would drop Lremendously aer
13 years because Lhere was llLerally fewer
people allve.
1he Leam dlscovered LhaL asklng Lhese
Lypes of demographlc quesuons enabled
Lhem Lo undersLand how dlerences
ln people aecL Lhelr behavlors. 1hls
meLhod generaLed lnLense dlscusslon,
and Lhe Leam pondered:
- Pow well dld our company know
Lhe nexL seL of cusLomers?
- Whlch generauonal dlerences
would aecL Lhe fuLure cusLomer's
wllllngness Lo use Lhe bank's
nanclal producLs and servlces?
- Pow could Lhey sell more Lo each
fuLure cusLomer ln order Lo ensure
Lhe same revenue?
- Where could Lhey nd more
cusLomers, and should Lhey look
abroad?
99
Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls Oxygenz Country Report: Germany, 2010
700
600
300
400
300
200
100
0
2010 opulauon 2030 ro[ecLed
2
0
1
0

u
L
A
1
l
C
n
(
l
n

L
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
,

m
l
d
y
e
a
r
)
0
-
4
3
-
9
1
0
-
1
4
1
3
-
1
9
2
0
-
2
4
2
3
-
2
9
3
0
-
3
4
3
3
-
3
9
4
0
-
4
4
4
3
-
4
9
3
0
-
3
4
3
3
-
3
9
6
0
-
6
4
6
3
-
6
9
7
0
-
7
4
7
3
-
7
9
8
0
-
8
4
8
3
-
8
9
9
0
-
9
4
9
3
-
9
9
1
0
0
+
ACL ulS18l8u1lCn
CLnL8A1lCn ?
- 8orn 1981-1990
- 12 of populauon
- Crew up aer Lhe fall of
8erlln Wall ln 1989
- Saw global exporLs rlse
- value susLalnablllLy,
soclal neLworklng
- LnLerlng workforce
8A8? 8CCML8S
- 8orn 1943-1963
- 29 of populauon
- Crew up under ausLere economlcs
- aruclpaLed ln Lhe counLry's reunlcauon
- urove lndusLrlallzauon
- value securlLy, culLural Lradluon,
producuvlLy
- lannlng reuremenL
ChapLer 4. CpporLunlLy 102


We see our sweet spot in recent
customer growth is tied
closely with our countrys
biggest population
In
2
0
y
ears, th
is sam
e ag
e g
rou
p
w
ou
ld
d
rop by
n
early
a q
u
arter,
raisin
g
som
e con
cern
s abou
t
available m
ark
ets in
th
e fu
tu
re
Part of our groups discussion
focuses on how our company
could better address changing
generational needs
!))
Tips & lessons from others
- ?ou are noL llmlLed Lo a reglon's
populauon. ?ou can descrlbe
populauon changes over ume
wlLhln an organlzauon, lndusLry, or
oLher unlL.
- 8efer Lo publlshed populauon
records Lo ploL Lhe number of
people llvlng ln a parucular counLry
or reglon aL each age. nearly
all counLrles and munlclpallues
malnLaln Lhelr own populauon
records. lor example, Lhe u.S.
Census 8ureau Lracks all u.S.
sLaLes and clues, plus malnLalns
an lnLernauonal daLa base for
counLrles and areas of Lhe world
wlLh a populauon of 3,000 or more.
- uescrlbe generauonal preferences
as rlchly as posslble because Lhey
wlll lmpacL Lhe value of your
lnslghLs.
- 1yplcally, Lhree generauons wlll
domlnaLe ln a counLry aL any glven
ume. uaLa abouL generauons can
be found from markeL research
rms and governmenL agencles.
Cen Lhese sources can provlde
esumaLes of fuLure demographlc
sLrucLures, Loo.
- ?ou can comblne expecLed fuLure
demographlc curves (and Lhe
relaLed generauonal daLa) on Lhe
!anus Cones meLhod Lo see how
populauon growLh wlll lmpacL
umlng.
kLILLC1ICN
whot ore the qeneronono/
./:".6 ;8 42'$ 5$;9/$4 9/$)"#>
!)!
Additional examples
Cne I|nn|sh pro[ect team d|scovered that the|r nanon's popu|anon
has been rather at |n recent decades. 1hey a|so saw how each I|nn|sh
generanon had a common set of cu|tura| exper|ences and va|ues that
they shou|d cons|der for the|r bus|ness p|ann|ng needs.
Aher mapp|ng the|r country's popu|anon, a South Afr|can team
saw that the|r nanon's average ||fe expectancy was 49 years, that
|mm|granon p|ayed an |mportant ro|e for the younger generanons,
and the |nterp|ay of ethn|c subgroups w|th|n generanons.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
GENERATIONAL ARCS | method worksheet
AGE DISTRIBUTION
-table comes here!

u
L
A
1
l
C
n
ACL ulS18l8u1lCn
!)#
Future User creates a future profle of
a user within a targeted demographic
by comparing similar groups over
time.
WhEn to use it
- 1o expand Lhe work of exlsung
cusLomer personas
- 1o ldenufy Lhe user needs of a
speclc markeL segmenL ln Lhe fuLure
- 1o ldenufy slmllarlues and
dlerences ln values, amLudes, and
behavlors beLween Lwo cusLomer
generauons
WhY its helpful
Lvery user persona Lells a sLory. 1he
common pracuce ls Lo develop personas
for your markeL segmenLs as you know
Lhem Loday. 8uL whaL lf you are deslgnlng
for cusLomers ln Lhe fuLure, who may noL
be Lhe same group or whose needs may
change from Loday's slLuauon? Pow do
you see lnLo Lhe fuLure Lo capLure Lhe
rlghL cusLomer aurlbuLes?
1he luLure user meLhod exLends Lhe
classlc persona used ln deslgn, markeung,
and sales. 1hls meLhod leLs you develop
smarL proles of your fuLure users. 8y
Future User
relylng on currenL evldence and hlsLorlcal
facLs, you wlll develop a composlLe
prole of your LargeL user LhaL ls deeply
grounded ln reallLy.
8y pumng Lhe persona of your fuLure
user or cusLomer ln conLexL, you wlll galn
a clearer vlew of LhaL user's buylng hablLs,
bellefs, mouvauons, llfesLyle, and more aL
a fuLure polnL. Cen whaL changes ln one
generauon wlll be Laken for granLed ln Lhe
nexL generauon.
What you get
luLure user can be used Lo analyze
consumers, buslness buyers, or any
oLher user role. Some groups have
adopLed Lhls meLhod Lo even compare
dlerenL producLs, buslness models, and
lnLernauonal markeLs.
ulumaLely, you wlll develop muluple
proles over ume for Lwo dlerenL
cusLomer segmenLs or users, looklng aL
how Lhey compare aL slmllar polnLs, as
well as how Lhey have changed over ume.
!)$
Lets look at an example
8ased on Lhe demographlcs of Mumbal,
lndla, a senlor researcher declded LhaL
he wanLed Lo focus on a speclflc user
group called SLrlvers." Consldered
parL of Lhe rlslng mlddle class, SLrlvers
earn an lncome of 300,000-1,000,000
rupees, llve malnly ln clLles, and are
moLlvaLed Lo achleve. 1hls demographlc
daLa gave Lhe researcher a basls from
whlch Lo sLarL developlng hls fuLure
user.
Pe lnLervlewed several people who
were represenLauve of SLrlvers. Pe also
revlewed lndusLry reporLs abouL Lhe
behavlors, values, amLudes, and bellefs
of Lhls group, especlally looklng aL soclal
moblllLy and LransporLauon usage.
urawlng from Lhls daLa, he creaLed
Lwo cuonal characLers named nlkhll
and SlddharLha (Sld), and he chose Lhe
names from a llsL of popular names from
each generauon. ueLalled proles were
creaLed aL four polnLs ln ume: nlkhll aL
age 22, nlkhll aL age 34, Sld aL age 22,
and Sld aL age 34. Lach prole descrlbed
Lhe person's educauon and career
asplrauons, famlly background, personal
bellefs, consumpuon hablLs, and moblllLy
hablLs.
1he researcher Lhen compared Lhe
proles wlLh one anoLher ln Lwo ways:
ln Lerms of llfe changes occurrlng for Lhe
same lndlvldual over ume (called llfe
changes" ln Lhe example dlagram) and
also beLween Lhe Lwo lndlvlduals aL Lhe
same age (noLed as slmllarlues" and
dlerences").
As Lhe lasL sLep, Lhe fuLure user
prole for Sld was developed. Pe carrled
slmllarlues over from nlkhll and also from
a generauonal analysls, assumlng LhaL
boLh users shared Lhe domlnanL bellefs
and behavlors wlLh Lhelr respecuve
generauons. 1he researcher made Lhe
characLer dlerences more evldenL,
knowlng LhaL earller bellefs held by Sld
would conunue Lo shape hls personal
declslons ln Lhe fuLure. Cverall, Lhe LargeL
cusLomer ln 2020 was a very dlerenL
Lype of person Lhan Lhe cusLomer known
Loday.
!)%
Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008
S|m||ar|nes at age 22
- use personal LransporL
- Asplre Lo an M8A degree
- Llve wlLh parenLs
- WaLch 8ollywood and crlckeL
- 8oLh wear forelgn brand apparel
D|erences at age 22
- Sld has broadband access Lo
lnLerneL
- Sld ls lnLo soclal neLworklng, an
unknown phenomenon Lo nlkhll
- Sld uses a moblle phone, nlkhll uses
landllne
- Sld ls already worklng aL hls faLhers'
company, nlkhll ls sull noL ln Lhe [ob
markeL
N|kh|| age 22 N|kh|| age 34
S|ddharta (S|d) age 22 S|ddharta (S|d) age 34
L|fe Changes for N|kh||
- Marrled aL age 28
- CoL an M8A degree
- 1wo daughLers born
- SpenL 2 years ln London
(rsL ume ouLslde lndla)
- urchased an aparLmenL ln
Mumbal
- urchased moblle phone
(uses 8lackberry earl)
- urchased compuLer wlLh
lnLerneL access
- urchased a car (Maruu)
- urchased a club
membershlp 6>>; 7??= 7?7?
!)&
Instructions
1. uraw a box LhaL represenLs your
prlmary cusLomer Loday. name
your cusLomer and noLe hls/
her age Loday. ?ou may nd lL
helpful Lo develop a deLalled
prole (persona) uslng daLa from
lnLervlews, generauonal sLudles,
surveys, markeL reporLs, eLc.
2. uraw a second box Lo show Lhls
person back ln ume and use an
arrow Lo connecL Lhe Lwo boxes.
noLe Lhe cusLomer's sLarung
age. (Pow far you look back wlll
depend on your group's 8&u
llfecycle, launch plans, and relaLed
sLraLegy-lf you don'L know a good
umeframe, use 10 years.) ulscuss
Lhls person's vlews, behavlors, and
cholces ln Lhe pasL and how Lhey
have changed over ume.
3. under Lhe rsL box, draw a Lhlrd
box LhaL represenLs your fuLure
cusLomer as he/she exlsLs Loday.
name Lhls fuLure user, and hls/her
age wlll be Lhe same sLarung age
as your rsL cusLomer. ?ou may
nd lL helpful Lo develop a deLalled
prole (persona) uslng daLa from
lnLervlews, generauonal sLudles,
surveys, markeL reporLs, eLc.
4. uraw an arrow forward from Lhe
Lhlrd box LhaL connecLs Lo a fourLh
box for your fuLure user. 1hls box
represenLs Lhe LargeL fuLure user.
Pls/her age wlll be Lhe same as
Loday's cusLomer.
3. Compare Lhe Lwo people aL Lhelr
sLarung ages and also aL Lhelr
LargeL ages. ?ou may nd lL helpful
Lo develop a prole of Lhe fuLure
user, whlch wlll lnclude a mlx of
domlnanL generauonal values,
slmllarlues wlLh Loday's cusLomer,
and new dlerences exLendlng
from Lhe young fuLure user Loday.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
!)'
1. W
e describe our prim
ary
custom
er today and note his age
2. W
e discuss what his
lifestyle, choices, and values
were 12 years ago and how
they have changed over tim
e
(we pick this tim
efram
e
based on two R&D cycles for
our com
pany)
3. Drawing from
our earlier
generational research, we
describe our young future
custom
er as he exists today
5. We compare and
contrast the two people
at their starting ages
and also at their target
ages, looking to
understand what has
changed (and what has
not changed) over time
4. The target age of
our future user is the
same as as todays
customer
!)(
Drawing insights &
implications
1he researcher learned LhaL Lhe fuLure
user ls slmllar and dlerenL Lo Loday's
cusLomer ln some lmporLanL ways.
AlLhough boLh nlkhll and Sld are 34-year-
old mlddle managers who shop forelgn
brands and waLch crlckeL, Lhey grew up
under dlerenL economlc and pollucal
envlronmenLs ln lndla.
lor example, Sld doesn'L care much
abouL pollucs and belleves buslness
prlnclples should be used ln Lhe
governmenL. unllke nlkhll, he spends
more ume abroad and llkes comblnlng
buslness and famlly acuvlues on Lrlps. Pe
also expecLs ublqulLous lnLerneL access ln
all fuLure producLs and servlces.
1he researcher also learned LhaL some
aspecLs of human bellef and behavlor do
noL change LhaL qulckly. lor lnsLance, boLh
characLers belleve sLrongly ln marrlage
and educauon. 8oLh eaL well, llve ln clLy
aparLmenLs, and commuLe Lo work.
Also lmporLanLly, Sld does noL have
unreallsuc expecLauons abouL hls fuLure
ln 12 years. Pe does noL plan on lunar
condos, ylng cars, or braln lmplanLs for
communlcauon, based on whaL he grew
up wlLh and ls experlenclng ln 2008.
lnsLead of wlld sclence cuon, Lhe luLure
user meLhod presenLs a plauslble persona
wlLh real-llfe needs seL ln a fuLure conLexL.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- wbete coo yoo foJ oJJluoool
Joto oboot bow people llve
toJoy? now tbey llveJ lo tbe
post?
- uo yoo woot to qtow tbe some
motket ot potsoe o oew motket
fot yoot fotote oset?
- now tepteseotouve ls yoot
fotote oset of bls ot bet
qeoetouoo?
- now mooy oJJluoool fotote
osets sboolJ yoo Jevelop to
beuet coptote o comloq cbooqe
lo tbe qeoetouoos mokeop?
109



Although both users enjoy cricket and
shop foreign brands, they grew up under
different conditions in Indiawhich
affects their expectations about the
economy, government, and industry
By drawing from real people,
we build a realistic persona for a future user that can drive our R&D planning
B
oth u
sers valu
e fam
ily
an
d
edu
cation
in
their lives
!!)
Tips & lessons from others
- 1he meLhod ls qulLe slmple aL
lLs core, slmply comparlng four
dlerenL proles ln ume for Lwo
people.
- SLarL wlLh Lhe prole of Loday's
cusLomer ln order Lo reconrm any
exlsung blases and facLs before
exLendlng lnLo Lhe fuLure prole.
- CaLher prole daLa from all Lhe
usual markeL research sources,
lncludlng personal lnLervlews,
onllne surveys, focus groups, and
eLhnographlc observauon.
- SelecL boLh Lhe names and faces
carefully for your characLer proles
because Lhey wlll convey many
lmpllclL messages abouL ldenuLy Lo
your audlence. Cne Lrlck ls Lo selecL a
popular baby name from LhaL ume.
- use real evldence Lo develop
your characLer proles because
sLereoLyplcal aurlbuLes wlll weaken
Lhe usefulness of Lhls meLhod for
your plannlng.
- Lach characLer prole may lnclude
baslc demographlc daLa, famlly
background, values and bellefs,
personal and career goals, llfesLyle
acuvlues, purchase/producL
hablLs, generauonal values, and
Lechnology/medla usage.
- ura Lhe nal blended prole for
Lhe fuLure user as your lasL sLep,
by drawlng from Lhe Lhree user
proles already developed.
- lnclude personal deLalls Lo add
llfe Lo your personas, such as: Lop
lnuences on purchaslng declslons,
favorlLe 1v shows, books readlng
now, car model drlven, blggesL
fears, eLc.
- Conslder adapung Lhe meLhod Lo
compare your group Lo anoLher
organlzauon Lo see how your group
mlghL need Lo maLure or evolve.
kLILLC1ICN
which user ouributes shou/d
stoy constont over nme?
!!!
Additional examples
A Luropean hnanc|a| serv|ces group w|shed to
se|| |ts current serv|ces to a new market, name|y
amuent fema|e profess|ona|s.
An Amer|can educanona| prov|der used the Iuture
User method as a qu|ck gap ana|ys|s to see what
they d|d not know about the future customer.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
FUTURE USER | method worksheet
5lmllotlues & Jl[eteoces lo oot
two osets ot tbelt stotuoq oqe.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
(AS1L
IACL
nLkL)
(AS1L
IACL
nLkL)
(AS1L
IACL
nLkL)
Ak._________
(AS1L
IACL
nLkL)
u5k NAM. ________________
51Ak1 AC. _______
5lmllotlues & Jl[eteoces lo oot
two osets ot tbelt totqet oqe.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1OuA'5 AC. _______
1AkC1 AC. _______
1AkC1 Ak. _______
u5k NAM. ________________
51Ak1 AC. _______
!!#
There is an old saying as talkative
as a Finn. The classic Finnish
stereotype is someone who is
taciturn and solemn, and the
national characteristic is of polite
reserve. Generallyspeaking, we take
business seriously and expect to
be judged by our expertise, not the
way we present ourselves.
Certain innovation methods
may challenge that comfort zone.
In particular, the FutureTelling
methodrequireselements of theater
and group role-playing. Like most
Finns, l preferto tell my team's ideas
calmly, not act themout.
Truth is, we might miss out on
many insights that acting out in
front of others might bring us.Role-
playing is not just a technique to
communicate an idea to another
person; it is ultimately a method of
self-refection. While acting out, we
have to consider the role we are
playing. We have to identify with
that role and imagine ourselves in
thatcharacter's situation. ln addition,
a live act provides more stimuli to
react to than a narrative could, so
the feedbackwe receive fromothers
becomes much richer and more
specifc.
Fortunately, performing is a skill
that can be learned. While I probably
can't remove the nervousness
that naturally comes with trying
something new, I can make it
more acceptable by practice.
The FutureTelling method can
be enacted in many situations in
ourwork to tell colleagues about our
new ideasthat may help all of us
to challenge our own stereotypes
about what is right and what is true.
VIEWPOINT
|
Acting out for the Finns
!!$
Futuretelling are short and dramatic
performances that illustrate a
particular user need as a scene from
the future. This is active storytelling
at its best.
When to use it
- 1o exclLe your audlence abouL
a fuLure posslblllLy LhaL may be
dlmculL Lo express ln words
- 1o change Lhe energy dynamlc ln a
sLale plannlng conversauon
- 1o complemenL wrluen
explanauons of your ldea
Why its helpful
sychology sLudles and everyday
experlence verlfy Lhe lmporLance Lo
show, noL Lell. eople llke Lo see, noL [usL
hear, resulLs. When an ldea ls vlsually
presenLed, lL conveys a rlcher seL of
meanlngs and engages Lhe audlence
more fully Lhan an ldea documenLed ln
plaln LexL. When Lhe ldeas are abouL
Lhlngs LhaL do noL yeL exlsL, such as a
fuLure buslness soluuon, lL can oen be
easler Lo acL ouL Lhe relauonshlps Lhan
Lo explaln Lhe complexlues Lhrough
mere words.
Futuretelling
luLureLelllng ls a verslon of sLoryLelllng,
whlch shows your user(s) ln a fuLure
conLexL. Some paruclpanLs conslder
luLureLelllng Lo be role-playlng or llve
LheaLer, or even a 1v slLcom scene, ln all
cases, Lhe power ls ln provldlng anoLher
formaL Lo lnform and persuade your
audlence abouL a new ldea.
1he value ls Lwofold: Lhe audlence
wlLnesses a llve demonsLrauon of a use
case and Lhe performlng Leam compleLes
an lmporLanL exerclse ln sense-maklng.
1he Leam musL Lhlnk of a real-world
slLuauon Lo presenL Lhe ldea and all lLs
componenLs. 1hls meLhod presenLs Lhe
rsL occaslon Lo Lhlnk ouLslde Lhe soluuon
and posluon lL ln a blgger conLexL.
What you get
?ou galn a shorL dramauc performance or
LheaLrlcal skeLch abouL your user(s) ln a
fuLure conLexL. AcLs can be performed Lo
supporL group communlcauon or can be
pre-recorded as parL of a broader eorL
Lo bulld knowledge and allgnmenL.
!!%
Source: William Cockayne, 2008
Lets look at an example
A Leam of nordlc researchers felL LhaL
growlng energy demand and comlng
advances ln energy Lechnologles
presenLed a compelllng buslness
opporLunlLy. 1he Leam dlscussed lssues
ln scale, accesslblllLy, and dlsLrlbuuon,
among oLher Loplcs ln Lhe energy
lndusLry.
Cne of Lhelr assumpuons was LhaL
Lhe nauonal mlllLary would serve as
a lead adopLer. 1he fuLure user was a
speclallzed mlllLary medlcal docLor ln
norLhern Lurope, who valued susLalnable
soluuons.
When Leam members plcLured Lhls
docLor worklng on crlucal surgerles on
Lhe bauleeld and oLher remoLe locauons
13 years ln Lhe fuLure, Lhey belleved he
would brlng a small power generaLor
uslng algae Lo help provlde local power.
ln order Lo presenL Lhls complex
plcLure, Lhe Leam developed a shorL
comedlc performance, or sklL, Lo show
Lhe docLor performlng Lhe surgery. 1eam
members played Lhe docLor, pauenL,
medlcal asslsLanL, and fellow soldler.
1hey used some slmple LheaLer props,
such as an Amerlcan fooLball as a Lumor
and a company evenL slgn as a scalpel.
8y addlng some llghL humor Lo Lhelr
role-playlng, Lhe Leam enLerLalned Lhe
audlence and made Lhe fuLure slLuauon
feel more memorable.
!!&
Instructions
1. ueLermlne Lhe prlmary need or
slLuauon LhaL you Lhlnk helps show
your fuLure user besL ln a reallsuc
slLuauon.
2. CreaLe a sLory abouL Lhls
user's slLuauon. WhaL are Lhe
clrcumsLances, and whaL are
Lhe people lnvolved Lrylng Lo
accompllsh?
3. uevelop a slmple scrlpL LhaL
ouLllnes each person's dlalogue
and lnLeracuons ln Lhls sLory.
4. ldenufy acung roles for all Lhe
Leam members.
3. llnd any supporung props LhaL
may help convey Lhe sLory.
6. resenL your performance Lo a llve
audlence.
7. LlsLen Lo Lhe reacuons and
quesuons from Lhe audlence,
whlch may show well- or
under-performed areas ln your
presenLauon.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- ulJ yoot ooJleoce teoct lo tbe
woy yoo expecteJ?
- ulJ yoot ooJleoce osk poesuoos
tbot yoot teom expecteJ?
- wblcb ospects of yoot stoty JlJ
tbe ooJleoce focos oo? wby?
- lf yoo boJ o cbooce to petfotm
tbe sklt oqolo, wbot woolJ yoo
cbooqe?
!!'


1. We decide to show the
doctor performing a critical
surgery on the battlefield.
3
-4
. E
very
on
e, in
clu
d
in
g

th
e pa
tien
t, h
a
d
som
e lin
es
to sa
y
th
a
t con
vey
ed
th
e
im
porta
n
ce of u
sin
g
a

porta
ble en
erg
y
g
en
era
tor.
2. Our story
had four roles:
a doctor, medical
assistant, patient,
and fellow soldier.
5-6. We used simple props,
such as giant paper scalpel,
to help add some humor to
our storytelling.
!!(
Drawing insights &
implications
1hrough Lhls slmple exerclse, Lhe
research Leam dlscovered several new
lnslghLs LhaL Lhey had noL expecLed.
llrsL, Lhey learned how lmporLanL lL was
LhaL Lhey show Lhelr user behavlng and
lnLeracung ln a reallsuc fuLure conLexL.
1he user need became much more
palpable Lo Lhe audlence, who had been
sllghLly skepucal before hearlng only Lhe
verbal descrlpuon. now Lhe audlence
could llLerally see Lhe fuLure scene and
relaLed complexlues, and Lhe Leam was
remlnded of Lhe old adage a plcLure ls
worLh a 1,000 words."
Second, by developlng Lhe sklL, Lhe
Leam learned more abouL Lhelr user
more Lhan any oLher analysls prevlously.
1hey also developed a deeper empaLhy
for Lhelr user. ln order Lo develop Lhls
characLer for llve presenLauon, lL became
necessary Lo undersLand whaL lL would
feel llke Lo be someone else.
1hlrd, Lhe meLhod broughL Lhe enure
Leam LogeLher ln creauve collaborauon.
Llke LheaLer, Lhe Leam had Lo work LogeLher
Lo creaLe a successful producuon.
LasLly, Lhe audlence feedback and
reacuon helped Lhe Leam lmprove Lhelr
communlcauon. 1hey reallzed LhaL Lhey
dldn'L need an endlng Lo Lhelr user's
slLuauon aL Lhls polnL, lnsLead, Lhe meLhod
gave Lhem a chance Lo learn and pracuce
Lhe greaLer sLory abouL why energy was
an lmporLanL lssue Lo address.
119


Once our audience sawinstead of
hearing us describethe users need
in context, they began to understand
the critical value of our opportunity
W
e g
a
in
ed
m
ore
em
p
a
th
y
for th
e
u
sers situ
a
tion
, a
n
d

g
ood
d
esig
n
b
eg
in
s
b
y
u
n
d
ersta
n
d
in
g

b
a
sic h
u
m
a
n
n
eed
s
E
v
ery
on
e h
a
d
a
role to p
la
y

in
th
e p
rod
u
ction
, a
n
d
it
u
n
ited
u
s m
ore a
s a
tea
m

!")
Tips & lessons from others
- A sLory becomes parucularly
memorable when you engage
members of Lhe audlence ln safe
roles.
- lL helps when each characLer ln
your sLory has a speclc agenda
LhaL drlves hls/her acuons.
- Someumes lL helps Lo use
sLereoLypes for supporung
characLers Lo keep Lhe sLory slmple.
- Cood sLoryLelllng and acung are
all abouL acuon and dlalogue.
Make sure your characLers speak
reallsucally, and Lry noL Lo mlx
sLyles of speech and vocabulary Loo
much unless you are golng for a
cerLaln eecL.
- use Lhe luLureLelllng performance
as a chance Lo LesL and gaLher
feedback abouL your lnnovauon
ldea.
- Conslder uslng a narraLor as one
of Lhe acung roles, lf you need Lo
provlde Lransluons beLween speclc
scenes or Lo explaln whaL your
fuLure user ls Lhlnklng.
- uon'L worry abouL gemng Lhe llnes
rlghL. Many performances are besL
lmprovlsed under deadllne.
- Some ways Lo deslgn a fuLure scene
lnclude havlng your fuLure user
meeL lLs older verslon aL a bar, or
havlng your fuLure user Lurn Lo
lLs older verslon for generauonal
advlce.
kLILLC1ICN
0+"8 32 42' 6"" .;="
6#2$4#"..;8< '6"3 ;8 42'$
orqonitonon or industry?
0+/# 9/)"6 ;# 12$)>
!"!
Additional examples
Severa| koreans presented a mock
commerc|a| on how k|mchee, a
trad|nona| fermented korean d|sh,
cou|d be the next hea|th ton|c for the
wor|d.
In a provocanve scenar|o, an k&D team
|n Ind|a showed how a typ|ca| urban
m|dd|e c|ass fam||y used water before
and aher the|r new system.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
FUTURETELLING | METHOD WORKSHEET
|ann|ng po|nt our story framework
&"6($;:" 42'$ 7'#'$" '6"$ ;8 28"
6"8#"8(" 2$ ."66- 0+/# 32"6
42'$ '6"$ (/$" /:2'# 926#>
0+/# 32 42' 1/8# 42'$
/'3;"8(" #2 '83"$6#/83 /:2'#
your users essenno/ need{s)?
whot is the situonon in the
7'#'$"> K""5 ;# #2 / 6;95."
6("8" 2$ #12O ;7 5266;:."-
0+/# 2#+"$ 5"25." F2$ 2:P"(#6G
1;.. 42'$ '6"$ ;8#"$/(# 1;#+ ;8
this situonon?
J21 32 42' 1/8# #+" /'3;"8("
#2 $"65283 /# #+" "83 27 #+"
situonon?
!"#
1be sketcbes ooJ ploos yoo wlll see toJoy ote slmply
o stotuoq polot. oot ftst ovetoll tblokloq.
vetytbloq lo tbls toom moy cbooqe ume ooJ
ume oqolo os we move obeoJ, bot tbe boslc
pbllosopby of wbot wete ploooloq ls qoloq to
temolo vety mocb os lt ls tlqbt oow.
*0/.# &;68"4, eotettolomeot vlsloooty
(lcO1 televlsloo speclol, 1966)
!"$
SOLUTION
ChaptER 5
Shortcuts
Phase III: Solution 125
White Spots 127
Paper Mockups 136
Dark Horse Prototype 145
Change Paths 149
Case study: Yle 158
!"%
The third phase in the Foresight
Framework brings you to a solution.
lnnovative solutions are specifc to
your industry, users, organization,
and individual skills.
1he rsL Lwo phases gave you groundlng.
1he Lhlrd phase seeks Lo dene Lhe
quesuons LhaL exlsL along dlerenL
paLhs Lo lnnovauon. 1he reason you
ask quesuons ls Lo help uncover any
llngerlng assumpuons and crlucal areas
LhaL sull need Lo be addressed by your
Leam before commlmng any resources-
nanclal, human, or oLher.
1hls phase ls focused on connecung
your vlew of Lhe fuLure Lo presenL
acuon. All of Lhe hase lll meLhods are
dellberaLely deslgned Lo converge from
muluple promlslng markeL opporLunlues
Lo Lhe selecL 1-2 proposals LhaL you wlll
Lake forward as lnnovauon soluuons.
?ou wlll learn Lhree meLhods ln Lhls
phase:
- WhlLe SpoLs
- aper Mockups
- Change aLh
Phase III: Solution
!"#
PHASE III: SOLUTION
1he Lhlrd phase seeks Lo dene Lhe
quesuons LhaL exlsL along dlerenL paLhs
Lo lnnovauon, whlch are speclc Lo your
lndusLry, cusLomers, organlzauon, and
Leam skllls.

!"#$% '()$* nds
hldden markeLs
and provldes a
broad look aL
Lhe compeuLor
landscape.
- page 127
+,(%- .)/01(*
creaLe Langlble
models of your
ldeas LhaL you can
LesL aL low cosL for
hlgh learnlng value.
- page 136
2",34% +,$"*
ploL Lhe ma[or
mllesLones LhaL
you wlll need Lo
achleve on your
paLh Lo acuon.
- page 149
A speclc lLerauon
"# $%& 5,-0 6)-*%
+-)$)$7(%8
- page 143
uesnons thot drive
this phose:
- now coo we Jetetmloe tbe
moluple potbs posslble to qet
ftom toJoy to tomottows fotote
looovouoo?
- lookloq ot wbot weve leotoeJ,
bow looq Joes eocb step toke
olooq tbe votloos potbs?
- wbot ote tbe ctlucol polots fot
cbooqe, ooJ wblcb ooes ote lo
oot coottol?
!"#
White Spots is a strategic method
for studying the opportunity space
defned by two salient issues.
WHY IT'S HELPFUL
- 1o sysLemaucally nd new soluuon
areas or poLenual markeLs LhaL
are unknown or lgnored by
compeuuon
- 1o ldenufy relevanL dlmenslons
for Lhe fundamenLal value of your
lnnovauon ldea
WHEN TO USE IT
1he WhlLe SpoLs meLhod provldes a qulck
way Lo organlze compeung soluuons and
slmllar examples agalnsL Lwo dlmenslons
ln order Lo help you assess areas of
promlslng opporLunlLy.
WhlLe SpoLs asslsLs Lhe search for
hlgh growLh markeLs, and Lhe meLhod
grew from slmllar Lools, such as Lhe
cross-lmpacL maLrlx lnlually esLabllshed
ln Lhe 1930s, Lhe growLh-share maLrlx
developed by 8osLon Consulung Croup
back ln Lhe 1970s (whlch lncludes Lhe
White Spots
popular quadranL for cash cows"), and
Lhe blue oceans" approach ln Lhe 2003
buslness book 8lue Ccean SLraLegy.
1he meLhod ls sLrucLured as a 2x2 maLrlx,
ln whlch each axls denes your declslon
crlLerla. More Lhan a compeuuve analysls,
Lhe WhlLe SpoLs meLhod helps you lLeraLe
your ldea's posluonlng. Changlng Lhe
dlmenslons wlll change your compeuuon.
What you get
usually a favored Lool of consulLanLs
and buslness sLraLeglsLs, Lhe WhlLe
SpoLs meLhod helps you sLrucLure your
approach Lo nd hldden markeLs, as well
as provldes a broad look aL Lhe exlsung
landscape of compeuuon. 1he unlled or
"whlLe" spoLs ln Lhe maLrlx wlll polnL you
Lo unexplored or new open areas ln Lhe
markeL. llndlng "dark" spoLs wlll show
areas of hlgh markeL saLurauon, whlch
may also be whaL you seek.
!"(
Source: kevln 8eynolds, SLanford unlverslLy, ML410, 2009
Lets look at an example
A young aeronauucs englneer had always
en[oyed sLorles of ylng cars, and he was
now ln a posluon Lo propose Lhe concepL
for real fundlng.
1he englneer wenL back Lo hls ConLexL
Maps. Pe had developed ve maps, so he
could beuer undersLand Lhe relauonshlps
among elemenLs. Aer revlewlng all hls
maps, he selecLed cosL and uullLy as Lwo
crlucal dlmenslons as Lhe basls for hls
WhlLe SpoLs analysls. Lach dlmenslon
became an axls, and he dened opposlng
endpolnLs as evaluauon lLers for cosL
and uullLy.
Pe recalled hls work aL 8oelng and
nASA and also spoke wlLh several lndusLry
experLs Lo ldenufy and map muluple
examples on Lhe maLrlx. Pe found an
open space on hls maLrlx-a poLenual
markeL opporLunlLy for personal ylng
cars.
Mi/itory
un/ity
civi/ion
un/ity
4gordob/e xpensive
very small &
lnformauon
gaLherlng
unmanned v1CL &
mlsslon speclc
unmanned &
mlsslon speclc
(2001-now)
lasL
commuLer
vehlcle
CompacL
commuLer
vehlcle
LlecLrlc vehlcles
(2007-now) LlghL sporL
alrcra (LSA)
(2007-now)
Pybrld deslgn wlLh
lmproved emclency
Large
commuLer
vehlcle Luxury
or sporLy
vehlcle
lasL &
luxurlous
vehlcle
8uslness
vehlcle
lasL v1CL
and luxurlous
verucal Lakeo &
landlng (v1CL)
Large
payload
capablllLy
lasL &
mlsslon-
speclc
v1CL &
heavy payload
Peavlly
armored
LxLremely fasL &
maneuverable
Mlsslon
speclc &
armored
A
lt tto
[
c

w
o
t

e
[
o
t
t

1
e
c
b
o
o
l
o
q
y

l
o
o
J
l
o
q

ersona|
y|ng cars
O
l
l
,

c
l
l
m
o
t
e

A
l
t

t
t
o
[
c

129
Instructions
1. uraw Lwo lnLersecung llnes Lo
creaLe a 2x2 maLrlx.
2. 8evlslL your Leam's lasL ConLexL Map.
ldenufy Lwo dlmenslons LhaL sLruck
you as belng Lhe mosL lnLeresung
or lmporLanL Lo your Leam's overall
learnlng. Advanced Leams may
selecL Lhelr Lop Lwo dlmenslons
wlLhouL Lhe ald of a ConLexL Map.
3. WrlLe one dlmenslon on Lhe
maLrlx's x-axls and Lhe oLher on
Lhe y-axls.
4. uene opposlLe endpolnLs for
each dlmenslon. 1hls Lask may
requlre several lLerauons Lo nd a
Lhoughuul palr of endpolnLs. 1he
labels wlll dlrecL analysls.
3. 1hen place an exLreme example
ln each maLrlx's corner based on
your axes. 1he corner examples
wlll help anchor your analysls. lf
you can'L ldenufy any examples, go
back Lo sLep 3 Lo Lry a dlerenL seL
of endpolnLs. lf all endpolnLs prove
frulLless, Lhen go back Lo sLep 2
and plck anoLher comblnauon of
dlmenslons.
6. Aer you have ploued aL leasL one
example ln each quadranL, place
oLher examples aL varlous polnLs ln
Lhe maLrlx. ?our goal ls Lo compleLe
as much of Lhe maLrlx as posslble.
uark spoLs, whlch have many
examples or example clusLers,
represenL areas of hlgh compeuuon
and markeL saLurauon.
7. llnd areas ln Lhe maLrlx LhaL
lack examples. 1hese areas wlll
appear as empLy whlLe spoLs ln
your maLrlx, and Lhey represenL
posslble markeL opporLunlues.
8. Clrcle one whlLe area LhaL mosL
sLrlkes your Leam. ulerenL Leams
wlll apply dlerenL evaluauon
lLers based on Lhelr respecuve
company prlorlues, group goals,
and oLher needs.
9. uescrlbe a fuLure vlslon LhaL could
exlsL ln Lhls space. WhaL would
Lhe world look llke? WhaL Lypes of
soluuons L besL here?
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
!#)
ChapLer 3. Soluuon


1. I start by drawing
a big cross
2-3. I pick cost and utility as the top two dim
ensions from
m
y
previous Context M
aps
to create m
y two axes
4. I decide to start simply
with military and
civilian as endpoints for
utility against high and
low cost
5. I iden
tify
an
extrem
e
exam
ple for each quadran
ts
corn
er to pretest the m
atrix
6. I add
many
examples
on the
matrix,
using
arrows to
show
movement
7-9. I mark one white spot
and ponder what could
realistically exist today
as a new industry vision
!"#$%&' )&*+, -&.,"/012 !34,5"$0 6,+*&$1+3.2 789:;2 <;;=
!#!
Drawing insights &
implications
1he englneer wlshed Lo be Laken serlously
by poLenual lnvesLors and parLners, so he
declded Lo omlL popular examples from
Lhe movles and sclence cuon sLorles
ln hls maLrlx. 8y focuslng on soluuons
avallable ln Lhe markeL, he conrmed
LhaL clvlllan LransporL alrcra Lended Lo
be less expenslve Lhan mlllLary soluuons,
largely slnce warume demand makes
cosL less a prlorlLy.
ln addluon, he used Lhe WhlLe SpoLs
maLrlx as a communlcauon ald. lL helped
hlm Lo explaln Lhe markeL need and
umlng of hls vlslon Lo several research
colleagues, who were unfamlllar wlLh Lhe
aerospace and auLomouve lndusLrles.
1he englneer was able Lo presenL a
complex plcLure easlly, especlally showlng
Lhe lmporLanL role of Lhe Amerlcan
mlllLary ln boLh leadlng and fundlng new
Lechnologles for dual-use alrcra.
WlLh Lhe help of Lhe WhlLe SpoLs
mapplng, Lhe englneer could [usufy
more clearly why Lhe Lwo dlmenslons of
uullLy and cosL were approprlaLe lLers
Lo evaluaLe Lhls markeL opporLunlLy. 1he
group dlscusslon ralsed oLher drlvers
and lssues, such as safeLy requlremenLs,
LhaL would be crlucal Lo Lhe successful
adopuon and use of personal ylng cars
ln Lhe mld- Lo far fuLure.
Armed wlLh Lhls knowledge, as well
as pracuce presenung hls concepL,
Lhe englneer soon exclLed several
organlzauons LhaL were explorlng Lhe
markeL space. ln Lhe end, he recelved Lwo
unexpecLed [ob oers and Lhe chance
Lo apply for fundlng ln a governmenL
program.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- wblcb Jlmeosloos (oxes) ooJ
eoJpolots JlJ yoot teom sttoqqle
wltb? wby?
- coolJ yoo oJJ mote exomples
ftom otbet cooottles, movles,
scleoce fcuoo, ooJ yoot petsoool
llves? now Jo tbese exomples
cbooqe tbe types of solouoos
beloq lottoJoceJ to tbe motket?
- uoes yoot teom koow ooy expetts
wbo coolJ complete ot cbeck
yoot ooolysls?
- uo cettolo types of solouoos
Jomloote tbe looJscope? now
mlqbt yoot teom cbotoctetlze ot
coteqotlze tbose solouoo clostets?
!#"


Although I developed
a Progression Curve
of flying cars from
the movies and
books, I focus on
real solutions in
my White Spots
analysis
This 2x2 visual helped
me tell a complex story
about the market
opportunity and
competition in terms of
the two biggest criteria of
cost and use
!"#$%&' )&*+, -&.,"/012 !34,5"$0 6,+*&$1+3.2 789:;2 <;;=
!##
Tips & lessons from others
- ldenufy endpolnLs LhaL are unusual
conLrasLs or provocauve, such as
facLual / percelved", whlch may
generaLe unexpecLed lnslghLs.
- Labellng Lhe axes ls Lhe mosL
lmporLanL parL of WhlLe Spaces. 1ry
Lo avold value-drlven [udgmenLs for
Lhe endpolnLs, such as negauve"
or beuer", whlch can unfalrly
lnuence how your Leam evaluaLes
examples.
- uon'L sLress lf your end polnLs or
dlmenslons are noL leadlng Lo a
fruluul group dlscusslon. lnsLead,
drop Lhem and sLarL over wlLh a
dlerenL seL.
- use arrows for any examples LhaL L
across muluple polnLs ln Lhe maLrlx
Lo help you show change.
- uo you have a guL sense of whaL an
opporLunlLy could be already? 1ry
Lo reverse englneer" Lhe WhlLe
SpoLs analysls Lo supporL your
hypoLhesls and see lf any new gaps
are uncovered.
kLILLC1ICN
?"72$" 42'$ #"/9 5;()6O
1+;(+ #12 3;9"86;286 12'.3
42' 6#/$# 42'$ /8/.46;6 1;#+>
0+4>
!#$
Additional examples
An Amer|can team rev|ewed the market for adu|t
connnu|ng educanon to see wh|ch compentors
enhanced or s|mp||hed the |earn|ng exper|ence.
A Luropean team eva|uated var|ous examp|es of persona|
bank|ng serv|ces, coded by co|or, a|ong the two axes of "needs"
and "comp||ance".
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
WHITE SPOTS | method worksheet
!#&
Paper Mockups asks participants to
physically model a future system.
When to use it
- 1o beuer undersLand an amblguous
lnnovauon concepL
- 1o vlsually communlcaLe a new
lnnovauon proposal Lo oLhers
- 1o ensure rapld cycles of feedback
and learnlng
- 1o rally supporL for a new ldea wlLh
Lhose around you
Why its helpful
llrsL, Lhe aper Mockups meLhod helps
you Lo llLerally see whaL you are dolng.
?ou connecL your mlnd Lo your hands by
Laklng advanLage of physlcal form. 8eyond
a menLal plcLure of your ldea, you wlll
have physlcally maLerlallzed Lhe ldea's
complex lnLeracuons and relauonshlps
LhaL underlle Lhe user experlence.
roLoLyplng makes an absLracL ldea more
real and accesslble Lo oLhers.
Second, you galn a Langlble prop. users
are good aL suspendlng Lhelr dlsbellef
when seelng a rough model made from
paper and oLher slmple ob[ecLs. 8efore
Paper Mockups
you have a chance Lo verballze your ldea, a
good mockup wlll generaLe reacuons and
quesuons from oLhers. A greaL mockup
wlll cause people Lo ask, why doesn'L Lhls
fuLure already exlsL Loday?
1hlrd, you save money. 8y uslng paper
and oLher omce supplles, you galn a
cheap way Lo pre-LesL an ldea before lL
becomes Loo formallzed or resource-
lnLenslve. 1oday's lnnovauon cosLs
usually lle ln bulldlng and verlfylng whaL
has economlc value. A slmple paper
deslgn ls oen Lhe besL way Lo sLarL
a dlalogue wlLh poLenual users and
LesL your ldea's value early wlLh llule
commlLmenL. As 1homas Ldlson once
[oked, We now know a Lhousand ways
noL Lo bulld a llghL bulb."
What you get
1he proverblal mock-up ls Lhe paper
alrplane. WlLh aper Mockups, you geL a
Langlble 3u represenLauon of your ldea
LhaL you can annoLaLe, share, and rebulld
aL low cosL for hlgh learnlng value.
!#'
Source: Ming-Li Chai, 2008
Lets look at an example
A corporaLe 8&u Leam developed a
aper Mockup for a new lnnovauon ldea,
whlch would be very dlerenL Lhan Lhelr
company's usual Lechnology producLs.
1hey lmaglned a new real esLaLe servlce
based on soclal neLworks LhaL would be
bullL on a consumer Lechnology plauorm.
1he proLoLype was slmply made from
colored consLrucuon paper, sLrlng,
chlldren's modellng dough, suckers, and
cra plpe cleaners. 1he Leam creaLed a
selecuon of houses ln a nelghborhood,
some of whlch were marked for sale".
8ased on u.S. demographlc daLa, Lhey
knew neLworks of young frlends share
Lhelr recommendauons abouL good
nelghborhoods. ln Lhelr proLoLype, Lhe
Leam modeled a group of people llnked
LogeLher Lhrough a comblnauon of
professlonal and personal connecuons.
1hls group would recelve regular sLaLus
updaLes abouL Lhe local properues.
8efore plannlng a more formal proposal,
Lhe Leam used Lhelr aper Mockup Lo help
LesL Lhe ldea wlLh frlendly colleagues ln
Lhelr research dlvlslon. 1hls gave Lhem
more feedback abouL whaL Lo lmprove.
!#(
Instructions
1. ueclde whaL you wanL Lo bulld or
LesL as a mockup. lor example,
your mockup could be Lhe enure
sysLem of componenLs or a model
of all Lhe lnLeracuons ln your ldea.
2. llnd some cheap proLoLyplng
maLerlals nearby, such as
dlscarded paper and plasuc cups.
3. nexL brlng your concepL Lo llfe by
bulldlng lL as a Lhree-dlmenslonal
ob[ecL or arufacL.
4. Share your mockup wlLh someone
for feedback.

- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- wblcb ospects of yoot ptototype
JlJ tbe ooJleoce focos oo?
wby?
- wblcb elemeots of yoot lJeo
JlJ yoot teom leove oot of yoot
ptototype? wby?
- wblcb potts of tbe ptototype
exlst toJoy, ooJ wblcb potts
oeeJ to be bollt? wblcb pleces
coooot exlst toJoy?
- now sboolJ yoo Jocomeot
ooJ coptote tbe lessoos ftom
bollJloq ooJ pteseouoq tbls
ptototype?
1J9
143


lmage source: Mlng-Ll Chal
1. We choose to build the
entire system because we
want to understand how
the various parts interact
2-3. We use materials
nearby to build quickly,
including string and
colored paper
4. One of our team members
sits down to explain our idea
to a group of colleagues
!$)
Drawing insights &
implications
An lmmedlaLe lesson was LhaL bulldlng
an ldea makes lL more real somehow.
1he 8&u Leam worked so oen on dlglLal
devlces and ln Lhelr heads LhaL Lhey forgoL
how lmporLanL (and frankly, sausfylng)
Lacule crasmanshlp can be.
8y maklng Lhelr ldea Lake physlcal
shape, Lhey also undersLood more abouL
Lhe dlerenL relauonshlps exlsung among
Lhe varlous componenLs. lor example,
whlle bulldlng Lhe paper houses, Lhey
reallzed LhaL Lhe neLwork of people dld
noL have Lo llve nearby Lo Lhe houses, nor
dld all Lhe people have Lo be local properLy
owners or poLenual buyers. Some people
mlghL be close relauves from Lhe broader
area, who llke Lo sLay generally lnformed
abouL changes aecung Lhe famlly. CLhers
were communlLy leaders, who llved ln a
dlerenL nelghborhood nearby, yeL had
vesLed lnLeresLs ln Lhese properues.
1he Leam also dlscovered Lhe power
of an ob[ecL durlng Lhe rsL feedback
sesslon. When Lhey seL Lhelr mockup
on Lhe Lable, several of Lhelr colleagues
became engaged lmmedlaLely. 8efore
Lhe presenLauon began, Lhelr colleagues
already began Lo ask quesuons,
curlous abouL Lhe posslble lnnovauon.
roLoLypes can brlng an lmaglnauve or
emouonal reacuon Lo a conversauon LhaL
mlghL oLherwlse have been llmlLed Lo a
concepLual or rauonal level.
LasLly, Lhe ma[or lesson was LhaL lf Lhe
proLoLype could exlsL Loday, Lhen lL ls noL
far enough ouL ln ume. ln oLher words,
Lhe Leam should sLop plannlng and bulld
Lhe soluuon now!
!$!
143


lmage source: Mlng-Ll Chal
The act of building also helped
us understand more about our
target users and how they
might react to different parts
While sketching is helpful,
building our idea into a 3D
object gave us more insights
into our own innovation idea
Just having a physical mockup in
hand generated intense curiosity
among colleaguesnormally, we
have to fight for their attention
during the usual slideshows
!$"
Tips & lessons from others
- uependlng on your organlzauon
and culLure, you may call a
paper mockup a feaslblllLy sLudy,
maqueue, small scale model, or
dollhouse. Choose Lhe Lerm LhaL
makes Lhe mosL sense Lo your Leam
and users.
- See how anoLher colleague explalns
your proLoLype Lo someone, whlch
wlll help you undersLand whaL
someone else sees as lmporLanL Lo
Lhe ldea.
- 1he besL maLerlals are cheap
and readlly avallable, such as
dlscarded paper (e.g., recycled
sheeLs), unused cardboard (e.g.,
empLy prlnLer carLrldge boxes),
omce supplles (e.g., paper cllps),
klLchen supplles (e.g., plasuc cups),
fasLeners (e.g., sLrlng, sLaples), and
whaLever else ls handy.
- uellberaLely keep your deslgn
rough, so LhaL lL looks lncompleLe
and Lhus lnvlLes consLrucuve
feedback from oLhers.
- Cen proLoLyplng ls mosL useful
when a sequence of mockups can
be done ln rapld successlon. Lach
mockup bullds on Lhe learnlng
and dlscoverles from Lhe prevlous
lLerauon.
- lf you Lake Lhe mockup Lo
cusLomers, remember LhaL Lhey LesL
Lhe proLoLype, you don'L LesL Lhem.
ln oLher words, focus on hearlng
how your sample users reacL Lo Lhe
ldea and why.
kLILLC1ICN
J21 9;<+# 42' "9:"3
5/5"$ 92()'56 ;8#2 42'$
"/$.4 9/$)"# $"6"/$(+ 2$
user tesnnq process?
!$#
Additional examples
Severa| Amer|can po||cemen prototyped
an |dea that |et commun|ty members send
rea|-nme texts and a|erts to he|p the |oca|
po||ce deputy respond more emc|ent|y to
ne|ghborhood cr|me.
8ased on recent changes |n |nexpens|ve
bu||d|ng mater|a|s, prefab dwe|||ngs, and
eco-fr|end|y des|gns, a korean team bu||t
a rough mode| of urban modu|ar hous|ng
un|ts.
PAPER MOCKUPS | method worksheet
Q"". 7$"" #2 '6"
#+;6 5;"(" 27 5/5"$
;8 42'$ 92()'5-
!$%
A variation of the Paper Mockup,
Dark Horse prototypes are three-
dimensional physical prototypes
that are built to explore a previous
intuition or rejected idea.
When to use it
- 1o glve your Leam permlsslon Lo
Lhlnk blgger and ouL of Lhe box
agaln
- 1o explore a fasL alLernaLe vlew Lo
an exlsung ldea
Why its helpful
ln Lhe world of horse raclng, a dark horse
ls a beL LhaL has Lhe leasL llkely odds Lo
wln, buL whlch ulumaLely may have Lhe
greaLesL chance of reward. Llkewlse, your
Leam may have re[ecLed cerLaln ldeas Loo
early because Lhese ldeas were percelved
as belng Loo rlsky, radlcal, lmposslble,
unaccepLable, or such aL Lhe ume of
conslderauon. eople oen dlsmlss Lhelr
earller lnLuluon and guL sense, and ln
pracuce, Lhe early ldeas, raLher Lhan
DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE
Lhe subsequenL lLerauons, oen become
more predlcuve of Lhe nal success of a
pro[ecL dellverable.
1he uark Porse helps you uncover an
earller LruLh or lnslghL LhaL you mlghL have
losL ln Lhe overall lnnovauon process. Aer
belng lmmersed ln foreslghL plannlng,
you have galned a greaLer undersLandlng
abouL your glven problem or opporLunlLy
space. 8y rebulldlng an earller proLoLype
ln under a mlnuLe, you focus ln on whaL
really mauers-Lhe fundamenLal core
of your lnnovauon LhaL becomes your
Leam's "uark Porse."
What you get
?ou galn a Langlble represenLauon of your
lnnovauon ldea, dlsulled Lo lLs essenual
value.
!$&
Instructions
1. 8ebulld your Leam's paper mockup
ln 2 mlnuLes or less.
2. Lxplaln Lhe essence of your ldea Lo
someone uslng Lhe mockup.
Drawing insights &
implications
8ulldlng Lhe uark Porse gave Lhe
corporaLe 8&u Leam a challenge. AL rsL,
Lhey proLesLed because Lhey already
knew whaL was lmporLanL Lo Lhelr ldea.
Why bulld lL agaln? WhaL would Lhey
learn dlerenLly?
1hen, someone ln Lhe Leam sLarLed
Lo ddle wlLh Lhe mockup, movlng Lhe
sLrlng connecung Lhe people Lo Lhe
houses Lhemselves. 1hls one declslon
was symbollc because movlng Lhe sLrlng
changed Lhe soclal neLwork from Lhe
people Lo Lhe ob[ecLs.
1he houses and renLal properLles
had Lhelr own soclal knowledge
lndependenL of Lhe resldenLs, and
Lhls knowledge could Lhen beLLer
supporL Lhe declslon-maklng of Lhe
people ln Lhe neLwork. ln oLher words,
Lhe neLwork of houses could mlrror
Lhe same senslLlvlLles, grudges, and
emoLlonal quallLles LhaL affecL human
frlendshlps.
1hls slmpllcauon changed Lhe enure
naLure of Lhe group's dlscusslon, helplng
Lhem reallze whaL was valuable-and
poLenually a unlque value proposluon-
Lo Lhelr lnnovauon ldea.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- wbot become tbe esseouol
elemeot of yoot lJeo?
- lookloq bock ot yoot teoms
ooolysls, bos tbe esseouol
elemeot of yoot lJeo beeo tbete
oll olooq? now JlJ yoo mlss lt?
- wltb tbe uotk notse ptototype
lo booJ, bow woolJ yoo polckly
te-tell tbe eoute ooolysls yoo
JlJ, beqlooloq wltb tbe cootext
Mop?
- Now tbot yoo koow tbe esseouol
elemeot tbot oeeJs to be
commoolcoteJ, wbot ls tbe oext
vetsloo of yoot ptototype?
!$'
ChapLer 3. Soluuon 130


lmage source: Mlng-Ll Chal
We made one dramatic yet important change: by moving the string from the people to the houses, we emphasized the
social network (and transfer of
knowledge) among the houses
!$(
DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE | method worksheet
E"/$ 42'$ 5$"=;2'6
!/5"$ R2()'5 ;8 +/.7-
&;6('66-
149
Change Paths are data-driven
narratives exploring different paths
and key decision points toward
possible future innovations.
When to use it
- 1o address Lhe gap beLween vlslon
and acuon
- 1o ouLllne some Langlble sLeps Lo
achleve your lnnovauon ldea
Why its helpful
Cne sLraLegy ls slmply Lo walL for Lhe fuLure
Lo arrlve. ?ou see whaL your compeuLors
do, and you reacL accordlngly.
AnoLher sLraLegy ls Lo anuclpaLe Lhe
fuLure you wanL and deLermlne how besL
Lo make LhaL vlew of Lhe fuLure happen.
Whlle Lhls sLraLegy requlres plannlng
ahead, Lhe resulLs are oen more
rewardlng and personally sausfylng.
1he Change aLhs meLhod puLs Lhe
conLrol ln your hands. lL helps you dene
Lhe blg sLeps or cholces your Leam musL
Lake Lo geL you Lo Lhe fuLure vlslon you
wanL. 8y marklng Lhe Lop 2-3 sLeps on Lhe
paLh, you provlde crlucal rally polnLs for
Lhe broader Leam.
Change Paths
All Change aLhs are drawn symbollcally
as a wlggly llne because lnnovauon does
noL occur as a llnear process. Lven lf
lnvesLors llke Lo see a sLralghL umellne, ln
reallLy Lhe paLh Lo execuuon ls a serles of
smarL and lucky cholces, ldeally llnked by
a compelllng vlslon.
What you get
1he Change aLhs meLhod glves you
a slmple sLraLeglc ouLllne LhaL Lhen
becomes Lhe backbone for a deLalled
pro[ecL roadmap and/or producL plan. lL
helps you lay ouL Lhe crlucal mllesLones
LhaL you wlll need Lo achleve on a
parucular lnnovauon paLh, so you slmply
know whaL Lo do Lomorrow.
?ou also show LhaL lnnovauon does noL
happen as a dlrecL paLh, buL lnsLead as a
serles of smarL cholces llnked LogeLher ln
a coheslve vlslon.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
!%)
ouLsourclng many l1 and manufacLurlng
operauons.
ln conLrasL, Alrbus' soluuon
addressed hub-Lo-hub Lravel. 1hey
wanLed a luxury alrllner, known as Lhe Super
!umbo", LhaL could carry more people
beLween large alrporLs LhaL would have
lncreaslngly fewer landlng sloLs. 8y relylng
on known Lechnologles, Lhey would creaLe
an enurely new Lravel class LhaL enLalled a
new markeL and buslness model. 1helr rsL
sLep was Lo revlew feaslble alrporLs. LaLer
sLeps would be Lo parLner wlLh alrporLs and
expand operauons globally.
Lets look at an example
8oelng and Alrbus are Lwo rlval
companles LhaL bulld commerclal
alrplanes and oLher aerospace producLs.
When Lhese companles lnvesL ln new
Lechnologles, Lhey musL beL blg for Lhe
fuLure. A small 8&u Leam reecLed on
each company's orlglnal vlslons for Lhe
787 and A380 alrplanes wlLh Lhe help
of analysL reporLs, news arucles, and
lndusLry experLs.
ln Lhe laLe 1990s, boLh companles
envlsloned a world of lncreaslng alr
Lravel. 1helr research drew from slmllar
markeL sLudles, cusLomer surveys, and
more, however, Lhey each Look a vasLly
dlerenL paLh forward.
8oelng's soluuon addressed polnL-
Lo-polnL Lravel. 1hey wanLed
a comforLable alrplane Lruly deslgned
for Lhelr cusLomers, whlch Lhey
called Lhe ureamllner, LhaL relled on
new Lechnologles wlLhln an exlsung
lndusLry lnfrasLrucLure. 1helr rsL sLep
was Lo revlew Lhe sLaLe of emerglng
Lechnologles. LaLer blg declslons
lncluded hlrlng a psychologlsL who
addressed baslc human needs and
Assess emerglng
Lechnologles
ueslgn for
passenger comforL
CuLsource
developmenL
8oelng 787
ureamllner"
arLner wlLh
alrporLs
Assess feaslble
alrporLs
Alrbus 380
Super [umbo"
uevelop global
parLners
!%!
Instructions
1. uraw a clrcle on Lhe far rlghL,
whlch represenLs your fuLure
vlslon or opporLunlLy. ulscuss whaL
a plauslble and deslred fuLure
looks llke wlLh your Leam. WrlLe
Lhe Lagllne or summary lnslde Lhe
clrcle. ?ou can also place a daLe or
ume perlod by Lhe clrcle.
2. uraw a squlggly umellne ouL from
Lhe le slde of Lhe clrcle. WhaL can
you do Lomorrow Lo geL sLarLed?
Mark an x aL Lhe far le endpolnL
and wrlLe your Leam's acuon here.
3. ulscuss whaL your Leam has Lo
do nexL Lo achleve your vlslon,
ldenufylng Lhe Lop Lwo declslons
on your paLh Lo acuon. ln all
cases, Lhese declslons should be
ln your Leam's conLrol and ablllLy
Lo aecL. Mark Lhese declslons
wlLh an x on Lhe umellne and
summarlze Lhem nearby.
4. lace any addluonal lndlcaLors
ouLslde your conLrol o Lhe paLh,
lf Lhey help you conrm progress
Loward your vlslon. 1hls ls an
opuonal sLep.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- lookloq ot tbe ftst few steps
yoot teom oeeJs to toke, ls yoot
vlsloo blq eoooqb?
- Afet tevlewloq oll of yoot
ooolysls, bow fot loto tbe fotote
Joes yoot vlsloo look?
- wbot woolJ belp yoo occeletote
tbe potb to yoot eovlslooeJ
fotote?
- ls tbete ooy teosoo tbot yoo
coot bollJ yoot vlsloo toJoy?
!%"


1. Boeing and Airbus take two different
views of the future: one imagines the
ultimate point-to-point airplane for
customers and the other imagines a
luxury liner between major airport hubs
3. W
e m
ark
the tw
o big
decision
s each com
pan
y

m
ust tak
e to achieve their
respective vision
s w
ith a X

further alon
g on
the
tim
elin
e
4. Boeing also pursued new technologies
and materials for greater airplane
efficiency, which was largely out of their
controla decision they could have placed
off their path
2. W
e n
ote the first step
each com
pan
y
can
do on

their path to action
at the
start of the tim
elin
e
!%#
Drawing insights &
implications
1he 8&u Leam reallzed LhaL boLh 8oelng
and Alrbus planned fuLure vlslons
slmulLaneously. 8oLh managemenL Leams
expecLed currenL lndusLry Lrends Lo
conunue, lncludlng lncreased alrporL hub
Lramc, decllnlng average alrplane slzes,
and more polnL-Lo-polnL lghLs. 8oLh
vlslons were compeuuve, yeL creaLed Lwo
large and complemenLary markeLs. lL was
a good remlnder LhaL Lhe same fuLure can
supporL muluple vlslons.
ln addluon, Lhe Leam learned LhaL
vlslons can (and ln many cases, should)
evolve. aLhs could change, as more
lnformauon ls galned abouL Lhe vlslon's
feaslblllLy or as markeL condluons shl.
ln 8oelng's case, managemenL rsL
envlsloned a speedy alrplane LhaL could
Lravel wlLhouL lnLermedlaLe sLops. 8oelng
lnlually developed a new concepL called
Lhe Sonlc Crulser LhaL would y nearly
20 percenL fasLer Lhan mosL commerclal
[eLs. ulumaLely, Lhey abandoned Lhe
ldea aer Lhe 9/11 LerrorlsL auacks and
concerns of rlslng [eL fuel cosLs. Many
lnslghLs from Lhls pro[ecL, especlally
for Lhe cabln lnLerlor, lnformed Lhe 787
pro[ecL happenlng ln parallel.
1he 787 vlslon focused on passenger
comforL. 8oelng's Lwo blggesL declslons-
Lo deslgn for Lhe user and adopL a model
of open lnnovauon-made Lhe 787 a
dlsrupuve lnnovauon aL Lhe ume. 1hese
declslons showed 8oelng whaL was
essenual Lo achleve Lhelr vlslon.
Cf course, oLher declslons mauered
Loo. lor example, 8oelng worked Lo
provlde beuer fuel economy Lhrough new
fuel-emclenL Lwln englnes, llghLwelghL
composlLe maLerlals, and more elecLrlc
power sysLems-all of whlch helped seL
Lhe 787 aparL ln Lhe markeL.
AnoLher lesson Lo Lhe 8&u Leam
was LhaL boLh vlslons were more Lhan
producLs. 1he 787 and A380 creaLed new
lnnovauon ecosysLems, and boLh vlslons
requlred a clear undersLandlng of muluple
complex relauonshlps and componenLs.
8oLh 8oelng and Alrbus had Lo make and
prlorluze declslons LhaL Lhey Lhen could
lmpacL and lnuence dlrecLly Lo achleve
Lhelr fuLure vlslons.
!%$


W
e
r
e
a
liz
e
d
th
a
t th
e
s
a
m
e

f
u
tu
r
e
c
a
n
s
u
p
p
o
r
t m
u
ltip
le
,
e
v
e
n
c
o
m
p
e
tin
g
, v
is
io
n
s

Boeing actually started with a different vision that crystallized into the 787. Only in hindsight does the future look like a clear and
straight path!
Both companies achieved the
future they wanted by
doing things that they
could affect directly
!%%
Tips & lessons from others
- Slmply knowlng whaL Lo do
Lomorrow helps break lnerua. Ask
yourself, whaL am l golng Lo do on
Monday? Who am l golng Lo call?
- 1alk wlLh oLher experLs Lo help you
valldaLe Lhe mosL crlucal sLeps Lo
Lake on your lnnovauon paLh.
- Conslder addlng daLes Lo your
fuLure vlslon and paLh mllesLones
so you can plan ahead.
- 8e clear abouL Lhe sequence and
umlng of all your sLeps. 8emember
mosL people musL learn Lo walk
before Lhey run, so don'L assume
LhaL your Leam can easlly sklp a
process Lyplcal for Lhe lndusLry.
- ?ou can overlay Lhe Change aLh on
Lop of your rlghL !anus Cones Lo help
you puL your acuons ln conLexL of
oLher company and lndusLry evenLs.
- 1ry Lo llmlL yourself Lo Lhe 2-3
blggesL declslons on your Change
aLh, so you Lruly know your Lop
prlorlues.
- ?ou can also llnk muluple Change
aLh LogeLher, as your goals bulld
on each oLher.
- 8emember LhaL your paLh Lo your
fuLure vlslon won'L be a sLralghL
llne. Slmllar Lo salllng, a person
learns Lo maneuver a sallboaL
forward by Lacklng back and forLh
regularly-yeL always lnLo Lhe wlnd.
kLILLC1ICN
whot ocnon con you /itero//y
#/)" #292$$21 #2 6"# 42' 28
#+;6 7'#'$" 5/#+>
!%&
Additional examples
A serv|ce team |n South Afr|ca deve|oped three re|ated
v|s|ons, each marked by d|erent dec|s|ons, wh|ch together
wou|d he|p ach|eve a b|gger goa| of tra|ned profess|ona|s |n
the|r he|d.
A Luropean research team env|s|oned a wor|d of
persona||zed consumer med|c|ne, and the|r Change ath
featured a ser|es of s|mp|e tests.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
CHANGE PATHS | method worksheet
8lC MlLLS1CnL #1:
Cu8 vlSlCn:
8lC MlLLS1CnL #2: SLClllC AC1lCn
1CuA?:
!%(
eLrl Pome, head of developmenL aL Lhe
llnnlsh broadcasung company ?le, smlled
as hls gaze swepL over a seL of proLoLypes
on Lhe large desk ln fronL of hls Leam.
1he frulLs of a year's work saL Lhere on
Lhe Lable, so Langlble LhaL eLrl hlmself
had dlmculues bellevlng lL when recalllng
Lhe amblguous premlses Lhey had begun
wlLh over a year ago.

Marketplace challenges
?le needed Lo change ln symphony wlLh
Lhe megaLrends ln Lhe medla lndusLry.
8roadcasung Lechnology was rapldly
becomlng obsoleLe, Lelevlslon had losL lLs
cenLral role ln brlnglng LogeLher famllles
and frlends, and on-demand servlces
were redenlng Lhe classlc model of
conLenL dlsLrlbuuon. 1he same was Lrue
for radlo.
1o add Lo Lhe challenges, Lhe
fundlng reglme of llnnlsh publlc medla
servlces was soon Lo be resLrucLured
lnLo a compulsory, devlce ownershlp
lndependenL Lax. All Lhese Lrends and
changes called for beuer cusLomlzauon
of servlces Lo connecL wlLh lndlvldual
vlewers and llsLeners, glvlng Lhem beuer
value for Lhelr ume and money.
ln Lhe sprlng of 2012, ?le had bold
ob[ecuves. 1he company envlsloned
several lnnovauve changes ln sLraLegy,
communlcauon, and organlzauon
Lo connecL and lnLeracL ln a more
dlrecL, lnLeracuve, and personallzed
manner wlLh lLs audlence. 8eyond
mere broadcasung, ?le would become
a nauonal neLwork of connecuons
beLween communlLy and conLenL. Pome
descrlbed ?le's vlslon LhaL every cluzen
of Lhe counLry should personally know
aL leasL one of ?le's employees and Lake
advanLage of hlm or her as a personal
helpdesk." leedback and daLa gaLhered
from Lhe audlence would Lhen be used
Lo develop and cusLomlze ?le's servlces
for beuer sLraLeglc declslon-maklng
and servlce. lnLeracuon, openness, and
dlrecL feedback were all keys Lo Lhe
success of ?le's new vlslon.
CASE STUDY | How YLE defined a new foresight capability
Towards participatory
renewal
1he changes necessary Lo lmplemenL Lhe
vlslon were company-wlde, requlrlng Lhe
coordlnauon and allgnmenL of prevlously
fragmenLed eorLs ln lnnovauon,
plannlng, and foreslghL across numerous
deparLmenLs, unlLs, and levels of Lhe
company. 1he ob[ecuve was Lo creaLe a
unled, repeaLable process for foreslghL
plannlng.
Charged wlLh deslgnlng ?le's new
approach, Pome knew LhaL re-allgnlng
old models and procedures would be
lnsumclenL. ?le needed Lo adopL enurely
new capablllues Lo lnLeracL wlLh Lhelr
audlence and Lransform Lhe capLured
slgnals lnLo vlable servlces. Pome reduced
Lhe challenge Lo a slngle quesuon: Pow
can we creaLe an engaglng, organlzauon-
wlde foreslghL process LhaL lnsplres
everyone Lo [oln ln?"

159
Heralds of change
eLrl's rsL move was Lo esLabllsh a
core Leam dedlcaLed Lo Lhe deslgn and
lmplemenLauon of a new foreslghL
process. Pls Leam conslsLed of four
managers, who were glven Lhe
mandaLe and power Lo access Lhe
enure organlzauon. 1helr rsL Lask was
Lo learn Lhe foreslghL and lnnovauon
meLhods presenLed ln Lhls playbook. 1hey
paruclpaLed ln an lmmerslve Lralnlng
workshop and also pracuced applylng Lhe
meLhods on Lhelr own Lo oLher lnLernal
lnluauves underway wlLhln ?le.
1helr second Lask was Lo engage and
Leach a small group of execuuves, recenLly
appolnLed as Lhe luLure Advlsory 8oard.
1hls 8oard would conslsL of managers
and dlrecLors wlLh slgnlcanL lnuence
aL ?le. Cnce Lhe new foreslghL process
was deslgned, Lhe luLure Advlsory 8oard
would be responslble for promoung Lhe
foreslghL meLhods and new pracuces
wlLhln Lhelr respecuve deparLmenLs,
whlch was key Lo Lhe scalablllLy of Lhe
new process.
A map of current practices
wbot ls post ls ptoloqoe.
-w. 5bokespeote
Pome's Leam sLarLed rsL on Lhe process
deslgn, whlch requlred esLabllshlng a
clear and coherenL plcLure of Lhe currenL
muddy sLaLe of pracuces prevalenL across
?le. 1hey knew LhaL pasL acuvlues placed
Lhe elemenLs of whaL would follow, so
Lhey needed Lo know how each dlvlslon
currenLly dened and approached
foreslghL.
1o gaLher Lhls lnpuL, Lhe Leam declded
Lo hosL a serles of mlnl-workshops, each
roughly 43 mlnuLes long durlng lunchume.
1hey felL Lhls approach would resonaLe
beuer wlLh and mouvaLe Lhelr colleagues
Lhan more elaboraLe and sLrenuous
arrangemenLs such as full-blown reLreaLs.
1he mlnl-workshops' ob[ecuves were Lo
(a) map currenLly used foreslghL pracuces
ln Lhe company, (b) collecL lnlual new
ldeas on fuLure foreslghL work, and (c)
famlllarlze muluple colleagues wlLh Lhe
foreslghL meLhods.
1wo members from Lhe core Leam
hosLed each workshop. aruclpanLs
lncluded colleagues and consuLuenLs from
all deparLmenLs and levels of ?le, lncludlng
members of Lhe luLure Advlsory 8oard.
As an advance asslgnmenL, paruclpanLs
were asked Lo prepare a brlef summary
of Lhe foreslghL meLhods currenLly used
ln Lhelr respecuve work. uurlng Lhe
mlnl-workshops, Lhese summarles were
debrlefed and shared wlLhln Lhe group
as a rsL exerclse. 8ulldlng on lLs ouLpuL,
paruclpanLs Lhen applled Lhe ConLexL
Map meLhod Lo synLheslze exlsung and
fuLure aspecLs of Lhe foreslghL process.

A sense of shared
ownership
1be Jl[colty lles oot so mocb lo
Jeveloploq oew lJeos os lo escoploq ftom
olJ ooes. -I. M. keyoes
When organlzlng Lhe workshops, Lhe
core Leam meL Lwo key challenges LhaL
aecLed Lhelr eecuveness ln plannlng
and poLenually endangered a successful
ouLcome. Cn a pracucal level, Lhey had
dlmculues gemng oLhers lnvolved.
!&)
lew colleagues had ume Lo spare
from Lhelr deslgnaLed day [obs and dld
noL fully appreclaLe Lhe long-Lerm value
ln developlng a corporaLe foreslghL
capablllLy. lf Lhey were unwllllng Lo engage
ln Lhe endeavor aL Lhls early sLage, Lhere
was llule hope for Lhem Lo supporL eorLs
for an open and paruclpaLory foreslghL
model aL laLer sLages.
1he second challenge was sLrucLural.
1here was llule co-creauon of ldeas, LaclL
knowledge, or shared undersLandlng
beLween Lhe core Leam and Lhe luLure
Advlsory 8oard. 1here was a rlsk LhaL Lhe
8oard dld noL percelve any ownershlp of
Lhe generaLed ldeas, whlch could lead Lo
low commlLmenL over ume.
WlLh hlndslghL, Pome belleved Lhe
convenuonal Laskforce approach Lo Lhe
pro[ecL caused Lhese Lwo challenges.
8esponslblllLy for drlvlng Lhe change had
been delegaLed Lo a small auLonomous
group, yeL whaL was needed was Lhe
auLhorlLy LhaL only Lop managemenL
commands. ln oLher words, Lhe core
Leam had Lhe mandaLe Lo lnvolve Lhe
enure organlzauon ln Lhe process buL
lacked Lhe leverage and auLhorlLy Lo do
so. ulumaLely, change would have Lo be
drlven by Lhe expllclL commlLmenL of
and clear communlcauon by ?le's Lop
managemenL.
uesplLe Lhese lnlual challenges, Lhe
core Leam was able Lo push ahead wlLh
lLs planned agenda.

Using stories to
communicate context
1be ettot of tbe post ls tbe wlsJom of tbe
fotote. -u. . 1otoet
Aer Lhe mlnl-workshops, Lhe core
Leam began Lhe analysls of daLa and
lnformauon. 1hey shared Lhelr lnslghLs
Lhrough sLoryLelllng, a powerful Lechnlque
LhaL puLs seemlngly unrelaLed pleces
of lnformauon lnLo a loglcal and causal
conLexL. Whlle a Leam member Lold a
sLory, oLher Leam members capLured
noLes and observauons on colored sucky
noLes.
1hese sucky noLes were Lhen grouped
Lhemaucally. Comblnlng Lhe rogresslon
Curves meLhod wlLh process ow charLs,
Lhe core Leam sLrucLured Lhe sLory Lhemes
and Lracked Lhelr evoluuon, relauonshlps,
and lnLerdependencles over ume. 1he
alm was Lo ldenufy key lnslghLs regardlng
Lhe causes and developmenLs LhaL had led
Lo Lhe presenL sLaLe of foreslghL acuvlues
aL ?le.
ln Lhe pasL, Lhe Leam reallzed LhaL ?le
had almosL excluslvely relled on exLernal
knowledge and consulLanLs Lo ldenufy
and faclllLaLe measures for developlng
foreslghL and lnnovauon pracuces. Any
lnslghLs galned had been llmlLed Lo a
very excluslve clrcle of lndlvlduals wlLhln
?le. 1hls model was dlrecLly aL odds wlLh
Lhe new sLraLegy LhaL relled on an open,
paruclpaLory approach Lo foreslghL.
1he core Leam drew Lhree ma[or
concluslons from Lhls lnslghL: 1he company
needed Lo (a) lead Lhe faclllLauon of
foreslghL pracuces ln order Lo conLrol Lhe
creauon of knowledge across Lhe broader
organlzauon, (b) esLabllsh a foreslghL
neLwork wlLhln and ouLslde ?le, and (c)
creaLe an lnLernal sysLem for gaLherlng
!&!
weak slgnals" and markeL feedback LhaL
would lessen Lhe rellance on ouLslde
experuse.
ln Lerms of leadershlp, Lhls approach
would shl away from convenuonally
hlerarchlcal pracuces Lowards an
emphasls on human-cenLered coachlng
and neLworks.
8ecenL developmenLs ln crowd-sourclng
and cloud Lechnologles, as well as Lhe
core Leam's eorLs Lo esLabllsh a unled
foreslghL meLhodology, were deemed
lmporLanL enablers ln lmplemenung Lhe
new sLraLegy.
ln eecL, Lhe core Leam had now
esLabllshed an ln-depLh plcLure of ?le's
currenL sLaLe ln foreslghL and lnnovauon
acuvlues. 1hey knew whaL would need
Lo change. 1o esLabllsh a wldely shared
undersLandlng, Lhe resulLs were presenLed
aL a large, company-wlde semlnar. 1he
core Leam was now posluoned Lo Lurn
from Lhe pasL Lo ?le's fuLure: Lhe deslgn
of Lhe company's new allgned approach
Lo foreslghL and lnnovauon.

Profiles of the future
audience
As a nexL sLep, Lhe Leam relled on Lhe
Cenerauonal Arcs and luLure user
meLhods Lo bulld deLalled proles of
?le's fuLure audlence and employees. 1he
Cenerauonal Arcs meLhod analyzed Lhe
audlence lnLo varlous sub-populauons
accordlng Lo age. When Lhe generauonal
map was overlald wlLh age-relaLed daLa
for Lhe use of medla and communlcauon
Lechnologles, lL was evldenL LhaL Lhe use
of lnLeracuve dlglLal medla boLh aL home
and work had become falrly wldespread
ln llnland. 1he ndlng valldaLed Lhe
opporLunlLy Lo lnLegraLe more dlglLal
soluuons ln a new ?le foreslghL neLwork.
Lncouraged by Lhe resulLs, Lhe Leam
more deeply lnvesugaLed an lmporLanL
LargeL group uslng Lhe luLure user
meLhod, generaung a user persona for
2027 based on cusLomer lnLervlews. As
a snapshoL 13 years lnLo Lhe fuLure, Lhe
persona oered a good reference polnL
for Lhelr sLraLeglc plannlng LhaL could be
updaLed over ume.
8y revlewlng domlnanL generauonal
behavlors and expecLed Lrends ln medla
usage, among oLher facLors, Lhe Leam
felL Lhe fuLure persona of ?le's audlence
would be hlghly recepuve Lo Lhelr overall
mlsslon Lo deslgn a paruclpaLory foreslghL
process. ln parucular, Lhe growlng
wllllngness of younger llnns Lo lnLeracL
wlLh varlous medla channels oered a
way for ?le Lo auracL more feedback on
lLs developmenL and servlce ldeas and,
more lmporLanLly, Lo capLure enurely
new ldeas generaLed by Lhelr audlence.
Moreover, Lhe power of moblle devlces
would conunue Lo Lransform conLenL
dellvery.
The importance of
real-world evidence
Lecuve analysls requlres good daLa,
and collecung good daLa ls oen a
ume-consumlng Lask. Worklng around
sLrlngenL deadllnes, Lhe core Leam faced
many quesuons abouL Lhe relevanL
scope and scale of daLa, and Lhey were
concerned LhaL Lhey mlghL overly rely on
!&"
Lhelr own pre-exlsung assumpuons abouL
?le's audlence. As a soluuon, Lhey Lurned
Lo exlsung lnLervlew daLa LhaL had been
collecLed earller for oLher purposes aL ?le.
1hls daLa conLalned deLalled lnformauon
abouL Lhelr LargeL populauon, allowlng
Lhem Lo complemenL lL qulckly wlLh
several shorL lnLervlews LhaL lled ln Lhe
remalnlng daLa gaps.
uue Lo ughL schedules, Lhey also
had had Lo choose wheLher Lo prole
Lhelr exLernal audlence or lnLernal
sLakeholders. Slnce Lhey felL Lhey had a
beuer undersLandlng of Lhelr colleagues
aL ?le, Lhe Leam declded Lo focus rsL on
Lhe audlence.

The Four Rooms concept
CondenL ln Lhelr ndlngs, Lhe Leam
proceeded Lo Lhe soluuon phase of Lhelr
plannlng process. urawlng from Lhelr early
analysls abouL ?le's currenL pracuces,
Lhey explored sulLable concepLs LhaL (a)
exhlblLed greaL poLenual for scalablllLy,
(b) was exlble enough Lo be lmproved
and adapLed on a conunuous basls, and
(c) could be faclllLaLed and communlcaLed
Lhrough dlglLal neLwork Lechnologles.
1hey soon converged on a concepL LhaL
had only been plloLed ln ?le's producuon
deparLmenL. Cne Leam member had
been lnvolved ln Lhe plloL and broughL
Lhe ldea Lo Lhe group. known lnslde ?le
as Lhe lour 8ooms," Lhe concepL was
rough and lacked a clear and well-dened
user. lL was furLher unclear how Lo
make Lhe proposed process lnLeracuve.
8egardless, Lhe concepL meL Lhe Leam's
lnlual crlLerla and oered ample room
for cusLomlzauon. 1he decldlng facLor
was LhaL lour 8ooms was bullL around
Lhe exlsung sLraLeglc declslon-maklng
lnfrasLrucLure of Lhe company, lnvolvlng
?le's Lop managemenL. 1he Leam declded
lL was more senslble Lo deslgn Lhe new
foreslghL neLwork around ?le's exlsung
declslon-maklng lnfrasLrucLure Lhan Lo
redeslgn boLh.
As Lhe name lmplles, Lhe concepL ls
a four-phased process, whlch converLs
weak slgnals" ouLslde ?le lnLo Langlble
represenLauons of fuLure soluuons. 8oom
1 ls a daLa collecuon and sLorage phase.
1o daLe, Lhe producuon deparLmenL had
manually collecLed sample feedback from
users, parLners, and oLher sLakeholders.
ln 8oom 2, Lhe gaLhered daLa ls lLered,
sLrucLured, and analyzed Lo ldenufy
lssues LhaL could lmpacL Lhe deparLmenL's
work and developmenL eorLs. 8oom 3
developed concreLe lmpllcauons based
on Lhe lssues. 8oom 4 ls a showroom
ln whlch Lhe producuon deparLmenL
presenLs promlslng soluuons ln Langlble
form Lo company lnslders, whlch mlghL
lnclude vldeos, posLers, proLoLypes, and
sLorles.

Building the prototype
1he core Leam agreed Lo deslgn Lhe
new company-wlde foreslghL neLwork
around Lhe lour 8ooms premlse. lnsLead
of lmplemenung lL Lhrough lsolaLed,
deparLmenL-speclc Leams, lL was clear
LhaL Lhe overall ob[ecuve Lo creaLe a
hollsuc, paruclpaLory foreslghL process
called for muludlsclpllnary, cross-
deparLmenLal Leams.
!&#
1he Leam was very consclous abouL Lhe
lmporLance of 8oom 1 Lo Lhe enure process
because lL represenLed Lhe lnLerface
beLween ?le and lLs key sLakeholders,
lncludlng Lhe audlence. ln parucular, Lhey
felL lL was lmporLanL Lo provlde addluonal
sumull for audlences Lo reacL Lo. lL was
declded LhaL mlcro-blogs, such as 1wluer,
and soclal neLworks, such as Llnkedln and
lacebook, would mouvaLe sLakeholders
Lo provlde oplnlons, ldeas, and crluclsm.
Creaung such sumull and posung Lhem
Lhrough varlous channels was Lo be a parL
of every employee's [ob descrlpuon aL ?le.
8oom 2 and 3 were Lhen deslgned Lo
be Lhe LerrlLory and responslblllLy of
Lhe luLure Advlsory 8oard, and several
appolnLed lnnovauon Coaches would
coordlnaLe and lnLegraLe daLa gaLhered
across ?le. 1hese Coaches would
analyze and lnLerpreL Lhe lnpuL from Lhe
perspecuve of ?le and deslgn approprlaLe
vlslons, sLraLegles, and acuons. 1hey
would also dlssemlnaLe Lhese newly
formed vlslons Lo lnLernal and exLernal
sLakeholders vla dlscusslons and publlc
blogs Lo generaLe addluonal feedback on
ldeas and vlslons under consLrucuon.
8oom 4, as Lhe Showroom, played Lhe
mosL lmporLanL parL ln Lhe Leam's nal
deslgn. noL only would lL be a physlcal space
lnslde ?le where lnLernal sLakeholders
could lnLeracL wlLh Langlble proLoLypes
and oLher represenLauons, lL would be
made publlc and broadly accesslble as a
vlrLual verslon on Lhe web. 1he Showroom
would be anoLher key elemenL of Lhe
lnLeracuve lnLerface beLween ?le and
all lLs sLakeholders. 1he luLure Advlsory
8oard was Lo publlcly Lake ownershlp and
responslblllLy of Lhe Showroom and lLs
conLenLs, humanlzlng Lhe vlrLual conLenL
wlLh Lhelr names and faces.
1he core Leam modeled Lhe exLended
lour 8ooms concepL uslng Lhe proLoLyplng
meLhodology and Loy bulldlng brlcks
from Lego Serlous lay (serlousplay.com).
Lach Leam member rsL bullL a personal
proLoLype, whlch Lhen was presenLed
and dlscussed wlLhln Lhe enure Leam.
1hls approach helped Lo lnfuse Lhe [olnL
vlslon wlLh dlverslLy and Lo lnLegraLe
loose, lndlvldual ldeas lnLo a coherenL
nal proLoLype, whlch was bullL as a lasL
exerclse by comblnlng key elemenLs of
each member's lndlvldual model.

FROM PROTOTYPE TO VISION
TO ACTION
Pome and Lhe Leam were Lhrllled. 1he
vlrLuallzauon of Lhe lour 8ooms concepL
would open up ?le's foreslghL process
for real-ume commenLary and moblllze
paruclpauon across all sLakeholder groups
from wlLhln and ouLslde Lhe company. lL
would enable a user-drlven, pracuce-based,
lLerauve deslgn process for ?le's poruollo of
medla soluuons and consuLuLe Lhe core of
Lhe company's foreslghL capablllLy.
WlLh Lhe Langlble lncarnauon of Lhe Leam's
vlslon on Lhe Lable, Pome Lurned Lo dlscuss
Lhe lmplemenLauon of Lhelr new foreslghL
process. 1he rsL lLem on Lhe agenda was
Lo creaLe Lhe luLure Advlsory 8oard and
commlL lLs members Lo Lhe cause.
LeL's do Lhls," Pome cheerfully Lold hls
Leam. We have a fuLure Lo creaLe ahead
of us."
!"#
nlte fot omtoJe. 1tolo fot sklll.
$ !"## %&'#(), co-foooJet of lost compooy moqozloe
(ltocucolly koJlcol, 2011)
oo see tbloqs, ooJ yoo soy, wby?
8ot l Jteom tbloqs tbot oevet wete,
ooJ l soy, wby oot?.
$ *+(),+ !+)-&). /0&1, ploywtlqbt ooJ
co-foooJet of tbe looJoo 5cbool of cooomlcs
(8ock to Metboselob, 1921)
!&%
TEAM
ChaptER 6
Shortcuts
Phase IV: Team 166
Buddy Checks 168
Case study: DARPA job ad 177
Voice Stars 178
Case study: DARPA PMs 187
Crowd Clovers 188
Case study: DARPA lessons 197
!&&
You have the start of a great idea.
Now you want to know: how do I
take this idea back to my group?
How can I take it inside my
organization, so the idea may
fourish into meaningful action?
Or what if I dont have a team yet?
What should I do next?
ulumaLely, lnnovauon ls drlven as much
by Lhe ldeas as by Lhe people. 1hls phase
ls focused on ndlng and developlng Lhe
LalenL who can eecuvely supporL an
envlronmenL of radlcal lnnovauon and
carry new ldeas forward. lL ls lmporLanL
Lo focus on ndlng Lhe rlghL people
because Lhey wlll be responslble for
lmaglnlng, communlcaung, and bulldlng
Lhe blg ldeas.
We recognlze LhaL many large
companles asslgn lnnovauon Leams
Lo nd breakLhrough growLh. Some
lnnovauon leaders have Lhe prlvllege Lo
recrulL new Leam members, whlle oLher
group leaders lnherlL a mlx of LalenL
who may have worked prevlously on
new 8&u lnluauves, are sLudenL lnLerns
or graduaLes wlLh an enLhuslasm for
enLrepreneurshlp, or are slmply avallable
as resources. 1hese workers may noL
necessarlly be naLural lnnovaLors, so Lhey
wlll requlre addluonal coachlng Lo learn
new skllls ln lnnovauon or may be beuer
sulLed for oLher roles.
Phase IV: Team
1hree meLhods wlll help you bulld an
lnnovauon Leam:
- 8uddy Checks
- vClCL SLars
- Crowd Clovers
!&'
PHASE IV: TEAM
1he fourLh phase focuses on ndlng Lhe
LalenL and leadershlp your Leam needs Lo
Lake an ldea forward as a new lnnovauon.
8uddy Checks
helps you nd good
poLenual maLches
for more parLners
and LeammaLes.
- page 168
VCICL Stars
ldenues your
Leam's apuLude for
radlcal lnnovauon
leadershlp.
- page 178
Crowd C|overs
helps you map your
Leam's lnnovauon
neLwork Lo brlng
your ldea Lo llfe.
- page 188
uesnons thot drive
#+;6 5+/6"L
- now Jo we eoqoqe tbe tlqbt
kloJ of people?
- wbo ote qooJ pottoets ooJ co-
foooJets lo o oew looovouoo?
- wbot ote tbe oblllues oecessoty
to leoJ toJlcol looovouoo?
- now Jo we qtow ooJ levetoqe
oot looovouoo oetwotks?
!&(
Buddy Checks evaluates potential
new co-founders, partners, and
teammates by showing their
reaction level to new ideas.

When to use it
- 1o dellberaLely recrulL llke-mlnded
lnnovaLors
- 1o pracuce real-llfe slLuauons for
publlc reacuons Lo your ldea
Why its helpful
llndlng Lhe rlghL person Lo work wlLh
oen Lakes muluple cycles of Lrlal and
error. Lxperlence shows us LhaL radlcal
lnnovauon requlres dlerenL personallues
and dlerenL sklll seLs, so lf you're serlous
abouL lnnovauon, Lhen you wanL Lo nd
and keep Lhe people who wlll help you
mosL achleve your goals.
Cen seasoned enLrepreneurs run
Lhrough Lhelr own verslons of a LalenL
Buddy Checks
checkllsL ln Lhelr head, lnLuluvely gauglng
whlch people are good maLches for Lhem
based on whaL Lhey have experlenced
before.
1he 8uddy Checks meLhod borrows
from Lhe arL of role-playlng as a way Lo
speed up Lhe process of Lrlal and error.
1hls meLhod wlll help your Leam LesL a
range of posslble reacuons from Lhose
you would llke Lo work wlLh-whlch wlll
help reveal Lhe base personallues.
What you get
8y measurlng candld reacuons Lo
lnnovauon ldeas, you galn a qulck way Lo
ldenufy promlslng people Lo work wlLh aL
muluple levels.
169
Lets look at an example
A Lemporary Leam was hand-plcked
for a new buslness lnluauve aL a large
consulung rm. Aer Lhey proLoLyped
Lhe rsL seL of soluuons, Lhe Leam needed
Lo recrulL a full-ume sLa Lo conunually
develop and malnLaln Lhe new lnluauve
as a regular parL of Lhelr cllenL poruollo.
1hey needed a group leader and Lhree
[unlor members for Lhe new lnluauve.
1hey rsL wanLed Lo recrulL candldaLes
lnLernally. arL of Lhelr challenge was
LhaL Lhe rm's culLure was generally
conservauve and focused on execuuon,
so Lhey knew Lhe Lype of people Lhey
wanLed would noL necessarlly be found
Lhrough Lhe usual rm channels.
uslng Lhe 8uddy Checks meLhod, Lhey
pracuced Lhe klnds of conversauons Lhey
wanLed Lo have wlLh Lwo colleagues ln
parucular-one person who would make
an ouLsLandlng Leam leader wllllng Lo
champlon a bold new ldea and anoLher
person who would seL a role model aL
Lhe Leam level. lL was cruclal Lo sLarL each
lnLervlew rlghL.
6
7 8
9 :
; <
Leve| 1:
8aMed, doesn'L
geL ldea
Leve| 2:
nods pollLely,
geLs ldea
Leve| 3:
Agrees wlLh you,
no acuon
Leve| 4:
Agrees wlLh you,
wanLs Lo play
Leve| S:
1rles Lo
exLend ldea
Leve| 6:
Adds someLhlng
new Lo Lhe ldea
Leve| 7:
Adds someLhlng new
you hadn'L LhoughL
of before
!')
Instructions
1. SelecL roles Lo play. AL leasL one
person should descrlbe Lhe new
ldea and anoLher person should
hear Lhe ldea, ldeally as someone
whom you would llke Lo [oln your
Leam or supporL your ldea.
2. resenL Lhe ldea and evaluaLe
reacuons uslng Lhe 7-level scale,
[udglng rsL reacuons Lhe mosL.
3. 1hen Lry dlerenL ways Lo presenL
Lhe ldea LhaL prompL Lhe reacuon
you hope Lo hear.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- ulJ tbe people lo tbe votloos
toles expetleoce ooy ptessote
ot sttess Jotloq tbe mock
lotetocuoos, ooJ bow JlJ tbot
ptessote cbooqe teocuoos?
- uotloq tbe cootse of o teocuoo,
bow JlJ tbe pteseotet oJjost
bls/bet commoolcouoo oboot
tbe lJeo, eltbet vetbolly ot
ooovetbolly?
- wbot types of petsooollty
outlbotes wete JemoosttoteJ ot
Jl[eteot teocuoo levels?
!'!
1. I volunteer to present our rough
idea, and A
nna and Jesse pretend
to be two colleagues we know
whom
we hope join our efforts
2. We agree our first colleague
sits between levels 4 and 5
because his first reaction is to
volunteer for the team and his
later reactions are to suggest
minor improvements to refine
our raw idea
3. After some more rehearsal
with Anna, we find two
scenarios that we expect will
prompt the reaction we want
from our second colleague,
who wed like to join as a
group leader
!
" #
$ %
& '
!'"
Drawing insights &
implications
uurlng roleplaylng, Lhe Leam qulckly
dlscovered LhaL rsL reacuons are mosL
Lelllng abouL people's bellefs abouL an
ldea's poLenual. 1hls led Lhem Lo rene
Lhelr sLory's angle.
AnoLher lesson came from Lhe
rehearsal. 1he Leam reallzed LhaL Lhey
dld noL have much ume Lo make a good
lmpresslon wlLh Lhe person Lhey wanLed
Lo accepL Lhe role of group leader. lL was
worLh pracuclng dlerenL conversauon
openlngs ln order Lo provoke a hlgher
level reacuon because lL was much
harder Lo sLarL aL a low level and work
up Lhe reacuon chaln Lhan Lo sLarL aL
Lhe level Lhey preferred. As a resulL, Lhey
developed a shorL llsL of Lhe LoughesL
ob[ecuons Lhey expecLed Lo hear, so LhaL
laLer Lhey could sLeer acLual Lalks ln Lhe
dlrecuons Lhey needed.
Leve| keacnon Lxamp|e comments from others
6
8aMed,
doesn'L geL ldea
> Why are you dolng Lhls?"
> l don'L undersLand how lL wlll change anyLhlng."
7
nods pollLely,
geLs ldea
> 1hls sounds lnLeresung.
> Who else have you showed Lhls Lo?"
8
Agrees wlLh you,
no acuon
> l llke whaL you've proposed.
> WhaL wlll you do nexL?
9
Agrees wlLh you,
wanLs Lo play
> l have some exLra ume ln Lhe evenlngs Lo help."
> l'd llke Lo [oln your group."
:
1rles Lo exLend
ldea
> l know somebody you should Lalk Lo."
> My old company could really use Lhls."
;
Adds someLhlng
new Lo Lhe ldea
> We could adapL Lhls soluuon for my conLacLs ln Chlna."
> "l can add a servlce model Lo Lhls producL ldea LhaL
wlll help drlve adopuon."
<
Adds someLhlng
new you haven'L
LhoughL of before
> "l can help you Lake Lhls Lo Lhe gamlng lndusLry."
> WhaL lf we do Lhls for Lhe mlllLary?"
!'#


W
e realize others have
an
in
stan
t gut
reaction
to n
ew
ideas,
w
hich reveals their
true feelin
gs about
play
in
g alon
g
The extra rehearsals lets us
test a few different ways of
telling our idea to generate
the higher level reaction
instead of starting at a
lower level and working up
to the reaction we wanted
from the start of the
interaction
!
" #
$ %
& '
!'$
Tips & lessons from others
- CLher Leam members can acL as
observers or coaches durlng Lhe
role-playlng exerclse.
- lf you don'L have a Leam yeL,
you can pracuce presenung your
lnlual ldea wlLh frlends and famlly
because Lhelr candld reacuons
wlll help you ne-Lune your own
phraslng of Lhe ldea.
- 8ely on your lnLuluon and lnner
feellngs as you ad[usL and evaluaLe
poLenual reacuon levels.
- keep your communlcauon slmple and
honesL ln order Lo avold mlsleadlng
or lnaung your Leam's goals.
- 1ake ume durlng and aer
your role-playlng Lo reecL on
boLh Lhe conLenL and sLyle of
communlcauon.
kLILLC1ICN
which reocnon /eve/ do you
#+;8) 42' 6;# /# 926#
(29928.4>
!'%
Additional examples
A team of I|nn|sh managers adopted the method to exp|ore d|erent organ|zanona|
reacnons from member compan|es (|nstead of |nd|v|dua|s) to he|p them gauge
support for the future strategy of the|r k&D consornum.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
BUDDY CHECKS | method worksheet
6
7 8
9 :
; <
Leve| 1:
8aMed, doesn'L
geL ldea
Leve| 2:
nods pollLely,
geLs ldea
Leve| 3:
Agrees wlLh you,
no acuon
Leve| 4:
Agrees wlLh you,
wanLs Lo play
Leve| S:
1rles Lo
exLend ldea
Leve| 6:
Adds someLhlng
new Lo Lhe ldea
Leve| 7:
Adds someLhlng new
you hadn'L LhoughL
of before
!''
Source: The Economist magazine, 2008
!''
Slnce 1938, Lhe u.S. uefense Advanced
8esearch ro[ecLs Agency-known
as uA8A for shorL-has pursued
radlcal lnnovauon, relylng on sLrong
personallues Lo drlve and dene hlgh
rlsk, hlgh reward programs ln research
and developmenL.
uA8A knows lL needs Lo auracL a
cerLaln Lype of person for Lhls klnd of
work. Whlle much recrulung occurs
Lhrough lnLernal referrals among sLa,
Lhe agency uses lLs publlc [ob posungs as
a broad provocauve adverusemenL. 1he
Are you a scientist or engineer
with a radical idea (or ideas)
that you believe could provide
meaningful change of lasting
benet for the U.S. mi|itary?
Would you like to lead the
countrys most capable
academic and industrial
experts to make that idea
become reality in a period of
[ust a few years?
If so, you should consider
joining the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency
(DARPA) as a program manager.
What is a DARPA PM?
A DARPA program manager is
> An idea generator
> A technical expert
> An entrepreneur
> A visionary
> A patriot dedicated to
national service
CASE STUDY | A job posting for DARPA
focus ls on promoung uA8A's mlsslon
and lnsplrlng Lhe rlghL people Lo respond.
ln a way, Lhe uA8A [ob posung
funcuons as Lhe agency's 8uddy Check.
Cood [ob descrlpuons provlde accuraLe
summarles of a [ob openlng. CreaL
[ob descrlpuons cause people Lo acL.
CreaL [ob descrlpuons are vlral. 1he
slgn of an eecuve prole ls LhaL when
someone reads lL, Lhey elLher wanL Lo
apply Lhemselves, or Lhey lmmedlaLely
and enLhuslasucally recommend lL Lo a
colleague or frlend.
!'(
VOICE Stars is a talent diagnostic
that measures the leadership
aptitude for radical innovation of an
individual or team.

When to use it
- 1o conducL a self-assessmenL for
personal skllls developmenL
- 1o measure an lndlvldual's apuLude
for lnnovauon leadershlp
- 1o evaluaLe a Leam's ablllLy Lo
develop an envlronmenL LhaL
supporLs lnnovauon leadershlp
Why its helpful
Cenulne lnnovaLors are a unlque breed of
people. 8eyond Lhe usual [ob pedlgrees
and performance meLrlcs, Lhey seem
Lo have a cerLaln dlsungulshlng mlx of
characLerlsucs LhaL dene Lhelr ablllLy Lo
lead oLhers ln new venLures. 1he vClCL
VOICE Stars
SLars meLhod provldes a slmple way for
you Lo assess Lhese leadershlp quallues.
8eyond lndlvldual leaders, Leams musL
demonsLraLe collecuve leadershlp, ln
whlch Leam members rely on each oLher's
dlerenL sLrengLhs ln order Lo operaLe
as a coheslve unlL. 1hls meLhod allows
you Lo vlew your group's overall scorlng,
assesslng whlch areas domlnaLe and
whlch areas requlre addluonal auenuon.
What you get
?ou now have a slmple gauge for
ldenufylng "sLar-shaped people", Lhe klnd
of lnnovaLors needed Lo lead and carry
new ldeas forward.
179
Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012
Lets look at an example
1hree senlor managers sLarLed a new
lnluauve aL a nauonal servlces company.
Lach person broughL dlerenL sLrengLhs,
and Lhey wanLed Lo assess Lhelr collecuve
ablllues Lo fosLer a group cllmaLe for
lnnovauve behavlor.
uslng Lhe vClCL SLars meLhod, Lhey
ranked Lhelr personal apuLude along
ve aurlbuLes for lnnovauon leadershlp:
voraclous, Cpen, lnsugaLes, Curlous,
and LarnesL-Lhe basls for Lhe acronym
vClCL. Lach person's seL of aurlbuLes
was connecLed by a dlerenL llne color.
1hey Lhen noLed varlous acuvlues
and meLrlcs aL each polnL LhaL Lhey
currenLly followed, whlch supporLed or
demonsLraLed LhaL parucular leadershlp
aurlbuLe.
VCkACICUS
LAkNLS1
CUkICUS INS1IGA1LS
CLN
# of otucles teoJ weekly
# of otucles fotwotJeJ to colleoqoes
# of collobototots
lovlteJ to o oew
ptoject
letceotoqe of
ume sbotloq
cteJlt ot
tecoqolzloq fellow
collobototots
ul[eteot types of tolks otqoolzeJ # of oew fotelqo pottoets lovlteJ
# of lJeos beotJ
Jotloq loocb
votlety of loocb
pottoets
!()
Instructions
1. uraw ve llnes llnked LogeLher aL
Lhe cenLer, so LhaL Lhey resemble a
blg asLerlsk or sLar.
2. AL each llne's endpolnL, wrlLe
one aurlbuLe from Lhe vClCL
llsL: voraclous, Cpen, lnsugaLes,
Curlous, and LarnesL.
3. uraw ve uck marks evenly
spaced on each llne. 1hese marks
represenL Lhe scorlng levels for
each aurlbuLe.
4. Score each Leam member's
apuLude for all Lhe aurlbuLes. Lach
aurlbuLe wlll have one score per
person. 1he scores are sub[ecuve
Lo your group.
3. uraw a llne connecung all ve
aurlbuLes for each person. 1hese
llnes represenL Lhe vClCL prole
for each person.
6. ldenufy example acuvlues and
meLrlcs nexL Lo each vClCL
aurlbuLe LhaL your Leam and/or
organlzauon does.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- wblcb outlbote Jomlootes yoot
teom? wby?
- wblcb outlbote scotes tbe
lowest octoss tbe teom?
- wblcb outlbote bos tbe fewest
oombet of ocuvlues ossocloteJ
wltb lt, ooJ wbot coo yoot teom
Jo to bollJ mote of o cllmote fot
tbls outlbote?
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
!(!

1
. O
u
r firs
t s
tep
is
to d
ra
w
th
e
u
n
d
erly
in
g
s
ta
r s
h
a
p
e
2
-3
. W
e w
rite a V
O
IC
E

attribu
te at the en
d of each
lin
e an
d m
ark
five tick

m
ark
s for scorin
g
per lin
e
4-5. We take turns scoring
ourselves across all the attributes,
drawing a connecting line between
individual scores
6. We discuss
different activities
our group does
that helps foster
a climate for each
attribute
!("
Drawing insights &
implications
1he vClCL SLars assessmenL relnforced
much of whaL Lhe Leam knew, buL
had noL dlscussed openly before. lor
example, Lhey relled heavlly on one
Leam member as Lhe exLernal radar,
who provlded ongolng markeL scannlng
and updaLes.
Cne leadershlp aurlbuLe domlnaLed
Lhelr Leam's scores. 1hey saw LhaL Lhey
all ranked hlghly on belng curlous, whlch
reecLed Lhelr shared lnLeresL ln worklng
LogeLher on anoLher new lnluauve.
1hey also consldered elemenLs LhaL
bullL a good group culLure of lnnovauon.
Cne area Lhey felL needed lmprovemenL
was lnsugaLe", whlch had few acuvlues
llsLed by lL. 1helr lnslghL was Lhey
[olnLly spenL more ume reacung Lo new
opporLunlues LhaL Lhey sLumbled upon,
lnsLead of Laklng more sLraLeglc acuon
Lo prompL and explore new posslblllues
wlLhln Lhe organlzauon posslblllues wlLhln
Lhe organlzauon-and Lhen drlve Lhose
posslblllues Lo fruluon pasL Lhe 8&u
proposal sLage. 1hey declded Lo be more
dellberaLe ln Lhls area ln Lhe comlng year.
1hey knew lnnovaLors geL ldeas done.
Aur|bute Descr|pnon
Vorac|ous
Always ndlng and
capLurlng wldely Lo add
Lo a personal collecuon
of ldeas, knowledge,
experlences, and people
Cpen
8ecepuve Lo new ldeas,
perspecuves, or
argumenLs
Insngates
SLarLs Lhe acuon,
compelled Lo Lry,
sumulaLe, encourage, or
provoke new dlalogues,
parLnershlps, and more
Cur|ous
Lager Lo learn and know
more, wllllng Lo ask
whaL lf?"
Larnest
Slncerely zealous,
wholehearLedly serlous
ln purpose, radlaLes
personal prlnclples
!(#


W
e rea
liz
e ou
r tea
m

scores m
ost h
ig
h
on

b
ein
g
cu
riou
s, w
h
ich

h
elp
s ex
p
la
in
w
h
y
w
e
a
ll a
p
p
recia
te ex
p
lorin
g

n
ew
top
ics a
n
d

p
ossib
ilities tog
eth
er
Only one of our team
is regularly
voracious, and we discuss how we
rely on him
to hear the latest news
updates and scan the m
arket for us
W
e fin
d it tou
gh to
thin
k
of exam
ples w
e
do to provok
e or start
n
ew
action
s, w
hich
leads to a good
discu
ssion
abou
t
w
hat other activities
an
d even
people w
e
shou
ld get to help u
s
grow
in
this area
!($
Tips & lessons from others
- CerLaln vClCL Lerms may noL
LranslaLe dlrecLly lnLo oLher
languages, so Lake ume Lo read
Lhe expanded descrlpuons Lo nd
beuer synonyms.
- uon'L perfecL sLandardlzlng scales
wlLhln Lhe Leam and lnsLead focus
more on Lhe dlalogue LhaL resulLs
from an honesL assessmenL of
personal and/or group apuLude.
- Conslder adapung Lhls meLhod
Lo complemenL exlsung hlrlng
procedures as an lnformal
assessmenL Lool.
kLILLC1ICN
0+2 32 42' )821 #+/#
:"6# "M+;:;#6 /.. 72'$
vOlc ouributes?
!(%
Additional examples
Cne team |n an Luropean k&D consornum
found that |t was easy to score the fu|| team,
but much harder to |dennfy re|ated acnv|nes
for each area.
An Amer|can m|||tary team d|scovered
that certa|n aur|butes generated a
broad scor|ng range, prompnng a cand|d
d|scuss|on about se|f versus group
percepnons of each person's apntude.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
M
L
1
n
C
D

W
C
k
k
S
n
L
L
1

VCkACICUS
LAkNLS1
CUkICUS INS1IGA1LS
CLN
ke/oted ocnvines / metrics:



ke/oted ocnvines / metrics:



ke/oted ocnvines / metrics:



ke/oted ocnvines / metrics:



ke/oted ocnvines / metrics:





VOICE STARS | method worksheet
!('
Slnce 1938, Lhe u.S. uefense Advanced
8esearch ro[ecLs Agency-known as
uA8A for shorL-has pursued radlcal
lnnovauon, whlch has been drlven heavlly
by Lhelr program managers (Ms).

The DARPA ethos
Ms are hlred on a shorL-Lerm basls-
Lyplcally 3-4 years-Lo nd, fund, and
fosLer new lnnovauon ldeas based on
Lechnology vlslons LhaL each one of Lhem
ls expecLed Lo develop. Whlle Lhe Ms
develop Lhe overarchlng vlslons, Lhey do
noL brlng Lhe vlslons Lo llfe Lhemselves.
lnsLead, Lhe Ms fund muluple Leams aL
unlverslues, companles, and governmenL
labs who Lake ownershlp of Lhese vlslons.
Several years ago, men's magazlne
spolte descrlbed Lhe uA8A M Lo Lhe
Amerlcan publlc: WhaL you geL, generally,
ls abouL four years-four years Lo do
someLhlng LhaL's never been done before.
lour years Lo do Lhe lmposslble... lL's whaL
accounLs for Lhe facL LhaL whole elds of
lnqulry rlse up around Lhe enLhuslasms of
program managers-elds of lnqulry LhaL
CASE STUDY | Program Managers at DARPA
weren'L Lhere before and LhaL keep golng
aer Lhe program manager ls gone. Call
Lhem program managers lf you wanL, buL
really, lf Lhe whole uA8A eLhos works,
Lhey become faLhers of Lhelr elds.
MoLhers of lnvenuon. lnvenLors."

The basic profile
uA8A Ms dlsplay a cerLaln LellLale mlx of
aurlbuLes. Whlle uA8A ulrecLors adapL
a general hlrlng prole when recrulung
Ms, Lhey ulumaLely rely on Lhelr guL for
ndlng Lhe rlghL person, whlch bolls down
Lo a handful of key LralLs:
- vlslonary Lhlnklng
- 1echnlcal experuse
- Leadershlp
- Communlcauon skllls
- llscal responslblllLy
MosL lmporLanLly, Ms brlng a vlslon of
whaL Lhey wanL Lo change ln Lhe world,
looklng Lo boosL Lhe magnlLude of lmpacL
wlLh uA8A fundlng. usually Lechnlcally
Lralned, Ms brlng deep experuse
abouL Lhe problem space from personal
experlence and years ln Lhe eld. 1hey
are also leaders ln some form, elLher
managlng muludlsclpllnary research
Leams or dlrecung large lnsuLuuonal
programs. As leaders, Lhey know Lhe
lmporLance of communlcaung Lhelr
vlslons urelessly, creauvely, and broadly.
LasLly, Lhey musL oversee blg budgeLs,
whlch requlre scal responslblllLy.

Where to find them
uA8A Ms are recrulLed from
muluple spheres, lncludlng companles,
unlverslues, nauonal laboraLorles,
nonproL and federally funded research
cenLers, and Lhe mlllLary servlces. 8y
scouung across dlerenL lnnovauon
neLworks, Lhe agency ensures dlverslLy of
LalenL wlLh a relaLed dlverslLy of vlslonary
ldeas.
!((
Crowd Clovers maps the various
related components of a personal
network focused on advancing new
innovation ideas.
When to use it
- 1o develop a map of your own or
Leam's lnnovauon neLwork
- 1o assess whlch areas Lo bolsLer or
change ln your neLwork
- 1o evaluaLe Lhe balance beLween
formal and lnformal relauonshlps
wlLhln a neLwork
Why its helpful
As Lhe global economy becomes
lncreaslngly lnLerconnecLed, companles
and oLher groups rely heavlly on
lnnovauon neLworks Lo help Lhem nd,
develop, and dellver new ldeas Lo Lhelr
parLners and cusLomers. 1he Crowd
Clovers meLhod provldes a slmple way Lo
caLegorlze and assess four prlmary ways
your lnnovauon neLwork can supporL Lhe
developmenL of a new lnnovauon ldea.
Crowd Clovers
1here are muluple forms and Lypes of
neLworks-such as an open lnnovauon
neLwork" or a "communlLy of pracuce".
1he Crowd Clovers neLwork Lakes a
sllghLly dlerenL angle. Cenerally, an
open lnnovauon neLwork ls focused on
ouLsourclng ldeas from exLernal parues,
relylng on formal sLrucLures beLween
people, however, a Crowd Clovers
neLwork conslders Lhe lnLerplay beLween
formal and lnformal relauonshlps. ln
addluon, a communlLy of pracuce ls
dened by shared lnLeresLs so all acuvlues
are deslgned around group learnlng and
exchange, ln conLrasL, a Crowd Clovers
neLwork map conslders Lhe acuons
dlerenL neLwork members can Lake Lo
push a new ldea forward.
What you get
8y creaung a Crowd Clovers map, you
wlll characLerlze and map your group's
lnnovauon neLwork.
189
Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012
Lets look at an example
Cuo recenLly accepLed a new posluon
as senlor lnnovauon dlrecLor aL a
medlum-slzed servlces rm, whlch has
provlded corporaLe Lralnlng, Lechnology
consulung, and oLher servlces for Lhe lasL
40 years. Cuo now wlll dlrecL Lhe sLraLegy
and execuuon of Lhe company's enure
producL poruollo, lncludlng 8&u, prlclng,
and promouon acuvlues.
Cne of hls duues ls Lo parLner wlLh oLher
company buslness unlLs and nd lnLernal
resources Lo malnLaln synergles across
all producL caLegorles. noLhlng ln Cuo's
[ob descrlpuon noLes Lhe lmporLance
of leveraglng exLernal resources and
bulldlng a greaLer communlLy among
parLners and developers-whlch he
knows ls also cruclal Lo hls company's
growLh and success.
Cuo maps hls group's neLwork, noung
whlch people Lhey rely on, boLh formally
and lnformally, for help wlLh lnsplrauon
(ln Lhe purple quadranL), resources
(green), execuuon (red), and neLwork
ouLreach (blue). Pe furLher marks formal
relauonshlps wlLh boxes.
luA PLLMl
CCnA
8Ln
!CPAnnA
LAu8l
MlnnA
LCulS
L1L8
LLlAS
SA8A
CLlvL8
Annl
CCNNLC1CkS
L
N
A
8
L
L
k
S
kCMC1LkS
C
A
1
A
L

S
1
S
ML
190
Instructions
1. uraw a large four-leaf clover wlLh
Lhe leaeLs faclng Lhe four cardlnal
dlrecuons (l.e., norLh, souLh, easL,
wesL).
2. ln Lhe le (wesL) leaeL, wrlLe Lhe
names of people you know who
glve you new vlewpolnLs or ldeas
ln work and llfe. Who lnsplres or
provokes you? Conslder everyone
from colleagues Lo chlldren. ?ou
may label Lhls leaeL "CaLalysLs."
3. ln Lhe Lop (norLh) leaeL, wrlLe Lhe
names of people you know who
connecL you Lo more resources,
such as people or money. Conslder
everyone from supervlsors Lo
nelghbors. Who helps you nd
ways Lo grow? ?ou may label Lhls
leaeL "ConnecLors."
4. ln Lhe rlghL (easL) leaeL, wrlLe Lhe
names of people you know who
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- wblcb pooJtoot wos eosy to
complete?
- wblcb pooJtoot bos tbe most
oombet of fotmol vetsos
lofotmol telouoosblps?
- now woolJ yoo mop otbet
oetwotk Jlmeosloos, socb os
cootoct ftepoeocy?
help you geL Lhlngs done. Who
encourages you Lo Lake acuon?
Conslder everyone from employees
Lo spouses. ?ou may label Lhls
leaeL Lnablers."
3. ln Lhe bouom (souLh) leaeL, wrlLe
Lhe names of people you know
who promoLe you and your ldea.
Conslder everyone from buslness
parLners Lo frlendly acqualnLances.
Who can lnLroduce you (and
your ldea) Lo oLher groups and
neLworks? ?ou may label Lhls
leaeL "romoLers."
6. Clrcle or draw boxes around Lhe
names of Lhe people who you work
wlLh formally, such as your boss or
suppller.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
191
Elias
Saia
Anni
0livei
Iua Belmi
0ona
}ohanna
Lauii
Ninna
Petei
Louis

2012 1amara CarleLon & Wllllam Cockayne
C
A
T
A
L
Y
S
T
S

CONNECTORS
PROMOTERS
E
N
A
B
L
E
R
S




1. I first draw
the outline for a
big four-leaf
clover, using
different colors
per leaflet to
signify the
network action
I desire for my
unit
2
. I w
rite th
e p
eop
le w
h
o
p
rov
ok
e m
e m
ost in
th
e
p
u
rp
le lea
flet (p
u
rp
le =

p
rov
ok
e)
3. I write the people who grow
and expand our ideas with
access to more resources in the
green leaflet (green = grow)
4. I write the people who
realize our efforts and push
us toward action in the red
leaflet (red =
realize)
5. I write the people who
broadcast and circulate our ideas within their networks in the blue leaflet (blue =
broadcast)
6. I draw boxes around the
people whom we relate to
formally (like our boss and
other division leads)
192
Drawing insights &
implications
Cuo knows LhaL Lhere ls more Lo Lendlng
an lnnovauon neLwork Lhan slmply addlng
more names Lo hls Llnkedln rolodex. ln
facL, he was personally relleved LhaL hls
group had connecuons across all four
neLwork caLegorles.
Pe does see LhaL Lhey rely mosL
on formal connecuons ln Lwo areas:
ndlng resources and drlvlng execuuon.
1hese areas make sense for day-Lo-day
buslness, however, he feels LhaL Lhey
should culuvaLe more lnformal llnks Lo lay
Lhe foundauon for longer-Lerm measures.
1he exerclse also relnforces hls
rsL lmpresslon LhaL Lhe group lacks
connecuons Lo promoLe Lhelr eorLs
ouLslde Lhe buslness unlL. As one soluuon,
Cuo plans Lo hlre a person Lo bulld Lhelr
developer communlLy.
Ins|ght oss|b|e network acnon to take
My network fee|s too sma||.
# lnvlLe your conLacL Lo share sLorles from work and
llfe over coee or wlne
My network fee|s too sma||.
# Ask your peers Lo lnLroduce you Lo more people
LhaL Lhey feel embody a parucular neLwork area
I re|y on the same
peop|e for everyth|ng.
# Amrm exlsung relauonshlps by sendlng a brlef noLe
of appreclauon Lo each person
My company |s my
network.
# lncrease dlverslLy by meeung 3-4 non-work
conLacLs from school, pasL [obs, mlllLary servlce,
church, eLc.
I hnd |t d|mcu|t to
expand my network.
# Ask exlsung supporuve conLacLs for Lhelr
suggesuons Lo how Lo expand your connecuons
I manage a team and want
to |mprove the|r network
connecnons.
# PosL a regular lnformal group gaLherlng, such as
a plzza lunch or aernoon coee break, ln whlch
Leam members are encouraged Lo lnvlLe ouLslders
I wou|d ||ke to know more
about the peop|e
|n my network.
# Share a seL of personal sLorles wlLh each person
ln exchange for Lhelr background lnformauon
# CapLure deLalls abouL new conLacLs ln a noLebook
or daLabase lmmedlaLely aer meeung Lhem
I wou|d ||ke to |mprove my
network pos|non.
# lnvlLe feedback from your connecuons abouL whaL
Lhey Lhlnk you do besL, so you can do more
19J


I w
a
s
reliev
ed
to s
ee th
a
t w
e
d
id
n
ot rely
on
th
e s
a
m
e
s
m
a
ll g
rou
p
of p
eop
le for a
ll
ou
r in
n
ov
a
tion
efforts

I s
ee w
e rely
m
o
s
t h
ea
v
ily
o
n

fo
rm
a
l ties
fo
r tw
o
a
rea
s
o
f
n
etw
o
rk
a
c
tio
n
, n
a
m
ely
to

fin
d
res
o
u
rc
es
a
n
d
to
p
u
s
h

u
s
to
ex
ec
u
te
I k
n
ow
few
p
eop
le
w
h
o h
elp
p
rom
ote ou
r
id
ea
s
a
n
d
ex
p
os
e u
s
to
oth
er n
etw
ork
s
, a
n

a
rea
I d
ecid
e to
im
p
rov
e th
is
y
ea
r b
y

h
irin
g
a
p
ers
on
to
b
u
ild
ou
r d
ev
elop
er
com
m
u
n
ity

Elias
Saia
Anni
0livei
Iua Belmi
0ona
}ohanna
Lauii
Ninna
Petei
Louis

2012 1amara CarleLon & Wllllam Cockayne
C
A
T
A
L
Y
S
T
S

CONNECTORS
PROMOTERS
E
N
A
B
L
E
R
S

194
Tips & lessons from others
- uon'L be dlshearLened lf your
neLwork looks messy or chaouc.
1he process of vlsuallzlng lL wlll
brlng clarlLy and help you ldenufy
whaL should change and where.
- Cverlap people and leaeLs as
needed.
- lf you llke maklng llsLs, you may
nd lL helpful Lo wrlLe down all Lhe
communlues you paruclpaLe wlLh
on a (seml-)regular basls and Lhen
ldenufy key people wlLhln each
communlLy who you conslder as
your conLacLs.
- lnclude all Lypes of relauonshlps ln
your neLwork analysls, lncludlng:
publlc, prlvaLe, famlly, frlends,
coworkers, menLors, onllne (dlglLal),
and physlcal.
- 8eallze LhaL neLworks change over
ume, as your prlorlues change and
as people move posluons. Conslder
revlslung your lnnovauon map
frequenLly and updaung lL Lo L your
laLesL company or personal sLraLegy.
kLILLC1ICN
0+;(+ S'/3$/8# 12'.3 42'$
(2.."/<'"6 5./(" 42' ;8 926#>
- ?ou can map your lnnovauon
neLwork manually or Lhrough
varlous soware.
- Conslder adopung Lhe meLhod
Lo map Lhe neLwork for your
lnnovauon ldea as a way Lo bulld lLs
lnlual ecosysLem.
Leaet Network acnon
Cata|ysts
eople who
provoke you wlLh
new lnslghLs and
posslblllues
Connectors
eople who grow
your ldea or eorL
by provldlng access
Lo oLher parLners,
workers, resources,
fundlng, eLc.
Lnab|ers
eople who help
you reallze your
ldea Lhrough acuon
or by proddlng you
Lo proceed
romoters
eople who
broadcasL and
clrculaLe your ldea
(and you) wlLh
oLher neLworks
195
Additional examples
A Luropean team eva|uated the|r [o|nt
|nnovanon network, |ook|ng at connecnons
|nterna||y and externa||y to the|r
organ|zanon.
An Amer|can m|||tary team eva|uated the
network connecnons and |nsntunona|
re|anonsh|ps for the|r organ|zanon.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
CROWD CLOVERS | method worksheet
CCNNLC1CkS
L
N
A
8
L
L
k
S
kCMC1LkS
C
A
1
A
L

S
1
S
ML
Clrcle Lhe
names
of Lhe people
whom you work
wlLh formally
197
Slnce 1938, Lhe u.S. uefense Advanced
8esearch ro[ecLs Agency-known as
uA8A for shorL-has pursued radlcal
lnnovauon by provoklng and fundlng
numerous ma[or lnvenuons LhaL have
led Lo subsLanual global beneL. 1hese
lnvenuons have led Lo Lhe developmenL
of Lhe worldwlde lnLerneL, compuLers
LhaL process human speech, radar
sysLems, memory shaped alloys, global
posluonlng saLelllLes (CS), alrcra
sLealLh Lechnology, x-ray lasers, moblle
roboLs, and more.
AlLhough a federal agency, uA8A's
long Lrack record oers many lessons for
companles who seek Lo bulld Lhelr own
pracuce of dlsrupuve lnnovauon. Seven
of uA8A's mosL lmporLanL lessons are
dlscussed here.
1. Organize by grand
challenge
1he classlc model of corporaLe research
and developmenL (8&u) ls Lo organlze
around a buslness dlvlslon or cusLomer
base. Cver ume, Lhese sLrucLures relnforce
exlsung producL soluuons. uA8A lnsLead
organlzes around key developmenL areas
ln Lechnology and sclence, whlch presenL
grand challenges." Crand challenges
represenL lmporLanL unsolved problems,
and each challenge can become a
separaLe plauorm LhaL susLalns and
unlLes muluple smaller soluuon areas.

2. Maintain short contracts
unllke mosL 8&u organlzauons, uA8A
hlres all lLs dlrecLors and program
managers on shorL conLracLs LhaL average
3-4 years ln lengLh. ShorL conLracLs
ensure focused paruclpauon and seL a
deadllne for each person's vlslon. 1here
ls always a conunual cycle of resulLs on a
grand scale. ShorL conLracLs also regularly
lnfuse fresh energy lnLo a group, brlnglng
CASE STUDY | DARPAs lessons for industry
new vlews and ldeas lnLo Lhe exlsung
mlx. uA8A Lhen relles on lLs alumnl base
and supporL sLa Lo provlde Lhe agency's
sLablllLy and memory long-Lerm, whlch
has worked remarkably well over ume.
3. Live the mission
uA8A llves grandly. lLs repuLauon has
spawned muluple slsLer organlzauons
LhaL seek Lo repllcaLe lLs formula for
success. 1hese lnclude Lhe lnLelllgence
Advanced 8esearch ro[ecLs AcuvlLy
(lA8A) for Lhe ulrecLor of nauonal
lnLelllgence, Lhe Advanced 8esearch
ro[ecLs Agency ln Lnergy (A8A-L) ln
Lhe u.S. ueparLmenL of Lnergy, and Lhe
Pomeland SecurlLy Advanced 8esearch
ro[ecLs Agency (PSA8A) ln Lhe u.S.
ueparLmenL of Pomeland SecurlLy.
Llke uA8A, smarL leaders conunually
evangellze how Lhelr organlzauon deslres
radlcal lnnovaLors and, more lmporLanLly,
provldes Lhem wlLh Lhe envlronmenL and
lncenuves Lo conunually lnnovaLe and
Lake rlsks.
198
4. Operate as an open network
lor mosL groups, Lhe sLandard hlrlng
procedure ls Lo recrulL promlslng LalenL
from a small clrcle of Lhe Lop unlverslues
and research labs. uA8A expands Lhls
pracuce conslderably. ln addluon Lo hlrlng
from wlLhln, uA8A casLs lLs hlrlng neL
wlde ouLslde Lhe usual spheres, lncludlng
uer ll schools, forelgn unlverslues,
research labs, nonproLs, and Lhe
mlllLary servlces. 8eyond [ob candldaLes,
uA8A's neLwork ls also a source for
pro[ecL advlsors, pro[ecL blds, Lechnology
revlews, and more. 1he agency relles
heavlly on lnLernal referrals and lLs ughLly
knlL alumnl communlLy Lo move ldeas
and people boLh lnLo and ouL of uA8A.

5. Hire for vision
lew resumes conLaln ldeas. uA8A sklps
Lhe usual case lnLervlews and conslders
Lhe person's vlslon and ways of achlevlng
lL. AL Lhe mlnlmum, uA8A's hlrlng
conversauons provlde a source of novel
ldeas. AL lLs besL, uA8A galns someone
who already brlngs a sense of mlsslon
Lo Lhe organlzauon-coupled wlLh Lhe
ablllues Lo Lake LhaL mlsslon forward ln a
compressed umeframe.

6. Sharpen vision at the start
Across varlous agency eras, uA8A program
managers have relled conslsLenLly on Lwo
prlmary mechanlsms for sharpenlng Lhelr
Lechnology vlslons before Lhese vlslons are
announced publlcly and opened formally
Lo bld. 1he Lwo mechanlsms are experL
workshops and proof-of-concepLs, and
program managers are LrusLed wlLh Lhe
ume Lo geL Lhelr vlslons rlghL.
LxperL workshops are lnvlLe-only, small
group dlscusslons, deslgned Lo gaLher
feedback on an emerglng or parual vlslon
from Lhe relevanL communlues. roof-of-
concepLs are dlrecLed feaslblllLy sLudles
LhaL Lyplcally resulL ln brlef reporLs or
demos. 1he alm ls Lo pre-LesL a vlslon or
valldaLe a posslble Lechnology area before
furLher acuon. 8y adopung Lhese Lwo
mechanlsms, companles would galn fasL
and aordable lnpuL lnLo promlslng blg
lnnovauon vlslons.
7. Keep a short decision chain
uA8A does noL have a sLage-gaLe process
wlLh muluple phases for new ldeas. 1here
are no evaluauon commluees or exLernal
peer revlews ln place, whlch lnLroduces
more people Lo veLo a posslble rlsky ldea.
lnsLead, each uA8A program manager
knows LhaL hls or her omce dlrecLor
and Lhen ulumaLely Lhe agency dlrecLor
makes Lhe nal call on a new program
vlslon. uA8A alumnl feel sLrongly LhaL
Lhls shorL declslon chaln ls Lhe reason for
Lhe agency's success. Slmllarly, companles
should conslder a separaLe approval Lrack
for lLs radlcal ldeas, whlch would allow
more early wlnners Lo ourlsh wlLhln.
199
stobllsbloq vlsloo lmposes qteot JemooJs
oo moooqemeot, bot meeuoq tbe JemooJs
coo ptoJoce o cotpotote teoolssooce.
- @;(+/$3 C- Q26#"$, moooqemeot expett
(8osloessweek otucle, 1982)
wbete tbete ls oo vlsloo, tbe people petlsb.
- K;8< N/9"6 ?;:.", ltovetbs 29.18
!""
VISION
ChaptER 7
Shortcuts
Phase V: Vision 201
Vision Statement 203
Case study: DARPA visions 212
DARPA Hard Test 213
Case study: DARPA criteria 227
Case study: EPCOT vision 228
Pathfnders 230
")!
With a team in place, your next step
is to turn your big idea into a vision
that will excite more people, mobilize
further action, and ultimately secure
funding and support as part of a
larger campaign.
A vlslon provldes Lhe desunauon for an
lnnovauon [ourney, allowlng you Lo plan
Lhe rouLe ahead. Slmply puL, lL helps
Lo know where Lo go nexL, and a vlslon
orlenLs everyone.
vlslons may operaLe aL dlerenL levels
wlLhln an organlzauon, speclcally aL Lhe
corporaLe, buslness unlL, or producL/
pro[ecL levels. 1hese levels all help people
lmaglne a fuLure sLaLe of Lhelr ldea, and
each level deLermlnes Lhe correspondlng
range of lmpacL.
vlslons work because Lhey dlrecL group
energy Loward creaung someLhlng new.
WlLhouL a vlslon, groups can survlve, buL
Lhey can'L expecL Lo achleve greaLness.
Many books and experLs oer advlce
abouL Lhe process of envlslonlng. 1hey
generally agree LhaL good vlslons are
ambluous, ldeallsuc, credlble, reallsuc,
aualnable, relevanL, and Langlble-aL a
mlnlmum.
Phase V: VIsion
Many also underscore LhaL a good
vlslon ls slmple. Llke an adveruslng
slogan, a good vlslon should be easy Lo
undersLand and easy Lo communlcaLe.
vlslons provlde Lhe guldellnes for acuon
and commlLmenL. All ne Lo say, and hard
Lo do.
1hree meLhods wlll help you nd and
form your lnnovauon vlslons:
- vlslon SLaLemenL
- uA8A Pard 1esL
- aLhnders
")"
PHASE V: VISION
1he h phase sharpens your Leam's
vlslon so LhaL lL may Lake on a llfe of
lLs own and gulde everyone's acuons
forward.
1he V|s|on
Statement helps
you Lell your ldea
as a clear and
conclse summary.
- page 203
1he DAkA nard
1est measures Lhe
vlslonary poLenual
of your Leam's
radlcal lnnovauon.
- page 213
athhnders
deLermlnes an
ldea's besL paLh
Lhrough your
organlzauon or
neLwork.
- page 230
uesnons thot drive
#+;6 5+/6"L
- wbot ls o qooJ vlsloo?
- now Jo we koow we bove o
qooJ vlsloo?
- now Jo we Jevelop o qooJ
vlsloo?
- wbot ls tbe best woy to
commoolcote oot vlsloo to
otbets?
")#
A Vision Statement provides a short
vivid description of your idea in order
to inspire, energize, and help others
create a mental picture of your target
future opportunity.

When to use it
- 1o qulckly and slmply dene a
new ldea, lnnovauon soluuon,
or buslness opporLunlLy and lLs
deslred ouLcome
- 1o condense Lhe essenuals of your
ldea ln a one-mlnuLe sLory
- 1o remlnd your Leam and parLners
whaL you are Lrylng Lo bulld
Why its helpful
Llke Lhe popular elevaLor plLch for new
buslness venLures, a vlslon sLaLemenL ls
a conclse, carefully planned, and well-
pracuced sLaLemenL abouL your fuLure
ldea LhaL anybody can undersLand ln Lwo
mlnuLes or less.
Vision Statement

A vlslon sLaLemenL creaLes a slmple
memorable framework for all your
sLraLeglc plannlng. ln a few words, lL
explalns where you wanL Lo go and why. As
an lnLernal compass, Lhe vlslon sLaLemenL
helps your Leam and employees focus
Lhelr eorLs. As an exLernal lLer, Lhe
vlslon sLaLemenL helps lnvesLors, parLners,
cusLomers, and oLhers ouLslde your Leam
know whaL ls (or lsn'L) ln scope for your
lnnovauon.
What you get
1he LemplaLe wlll help you cra and
frame a clear vlslon sLaLemenL. Cnce
creaLed, rehearse lL regularly and Lhen
Lallor lL as needed for Lhe members ln
your lnnovauon neLwork.
")$
212

ChapLer 7. vlslon
Cur vlslon ls Lo cteote o petsoool otufclol execouve
osslstoot tbot mokes seose of volomes of lofotmouoo to
belp yoo to moke Jeclsloos oo JemooJ. lL ls almosL
lmposslble Lo achleve because tbe ttoosfotmouoo of
volomes of lofotmouoo tepoltes tecbooloqles tbot we Joot
bove toJoy (e.q., systemouc ooolysls of ooy type of
lofotmouoo). 1he umlng ls rlghL Loday due Lo tbe
locteosloq coovetqeoce of tecbooloqles lo soclol oetwotkloq
tools, lloqolsucs, ooJ semoouc ooolysls. recedenLs of Lhls
ldea lnclude petsoool Jlqltol osslstoots ooJ tbe closslc
volet. 8y worklng wlLh Cooqle, 5Al, llxot, and Mlctosof,
we wlll make Lhls vlslon real ln 6 years by .
Lets look at an example
An lnvlLe-only workshop was held Lo
explore Lhe "fuLure of work" ln 2030. Cne
Leam was comprlsed of an 8&u dlrecLor,
soware manager, Lralnlng speclallsL,
and cusLomer-all from dlerenL
organlzauons. 1he Leam used Lhe
foreslghL meLhods Lo develop a shared
undersLandlng abouL fuLure work needs.
As Lhelr proposed vlslon, Lhey declded Lo
develop a smarLer vlrLual helper Lo help
senlor execuuves save ume.
Whlle noL a new or novel vlslon, Lhe
Leam felL Lhe user need was sull hlgh,
and markeL umlng was now rlghL. Cne
reason was Lhe lncreaslng convergence
of Lechnologles ln soclal neLworklng
Lools, llngulsucs, semanuc analysls, and
relaLed areas, whlch could overcome Lhe
llmlLauons of prlor producLs and servlces.
")%
Instructions
1. SLarL by descrlblng whaL you wanL
Lo achleve ln very slmple Lerms:
Cur vlslon ls Lo ______." 1he
aper Mockups and luLureLelllng
meLhods wlll help you nd and
express your ldea. use Lhe WhlLe
SpoLs and uark Porse meLhod
Lo speclfy Lhe unlque value ln
your ldea relauve Lo compeung
soluuons.
2. nexL explaln why your vlslon ls
Lruly vlslonary by sLaung: lL ls
almosL lmposslble Lo achleve
because ______." 1he ConLexL
Maps and WhlLe SpoLs meLhods
wlll oer hlnLs on your Leam's
vlew of Lhe exlsung challenge and
sLaLe of Lhe eld. 1he uark Porse
meLhod wlll also help Lo ldenufy
exlsung preconcepuons.
3. Lxplaln why your vlslon should
be pursued now by sLaung:
1he umlng ls rlghL Loday due Lo
______." 1he rogresslon Curves
and !anus Cones wlll help you
[usufy Lhe nexL sLep ln Lhe ldea's
umellne.
4. 8rley explaln Lhe background or
precursors for your ldea by sLaung:
recedenLs for Lhls ldea lnclude
______." 1he rogresslon Curves
and !anus Cones meLhods can help
you uncover any relevanL hlsLory.
3. Make your vlslon acuve and
collaborauve by sLaung 2-4
parLners and/or supporLers: 8y
worklng wlLh ______, ______, and
______." 1he luLure users and
Change aLh meLhods can help
deLermlne who could be lnvolved
ln bulldlng your ldea.
6. Show commlLmenL and seL a
umellne by sLaung: we wlll make
Lhls vlslon real ln ___ years." 1he
rogresslon Curves meLhod wlll
help you gauge pasL umeframes Lo
esumaLe a fuLure plannlng horlzon.
7. LasLly, explaln how you wlll
make your ldea happen by
sLaung by _____." 1he Change
aLh meLhod wlll leL you name
Lwo blg mllesLones LhaL exLend
dlrecLly from Loday.
See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
")&
Cur vlslon ls Lo cteote o petsoool otufclol execouve
osslstoot tbot mokes seose of volomes of lofotmouoo to
belp yoo to moke Jeclsloos oo JemooJ. lL ls almosL
lmposslble Lo achleve because tbe ttoosfotmouoo of
volomes of lofotmouoo tepoltes tecbooloqles tbot we Joot
bove toJoy (e.q., systemouc ooolysls of ooy type of
lofotmouoo). 1he umlng ls rlghL Loday due Lo tbe
locteosloq coovetqeoce of tecbooloqles lo soclol oetwotkloq
tools, lloqolsucs, ooJ semoouc ooolysls. recedenLs of Lhls
ldea lnclude petsoool Jlqltol osslstoots ooJ tbe closslc
volet. 8y worklng wlLh Cooqle, 5Al, llxot, and Mlctosof,
we wlll make Lhls vlslon real ln 6 years by .
2. We then use the dimensions in the
Context Maps to explain what made our
idea such a bold opportunity.
3. Looking at the
Janus Cones help us
understand why our
vision should exist now.
4. We decide to name
only two popular past
examples from our
Progression Curves
analysis to not
overwhelm our users.
5. We name four
companies which
would be ideal
partners for us, two
of which are already
working with us
on other projects.
6. The Progression
Curves help us estimate
a realistic date.
7. We need to discuss more
which two big steps from our
Change Path will show we
are directly on track to
achieve this big vision.
1. We start by referring back to the
story we told in the Futuretelling
exercise about our idea. The Dark
Horse method lets us focus on what
is essential to our innovation.
")'
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- now woolJ yoot costomet ot
lovestot Jesctlbe yoot lJeo?
wbot pbtoses woolJ tbey
ose Jl[eteotly lo yoot vlsloo
stotemeot?
- lf oootbet teom ot compooy
bos ouempteJ o vetsloo of yoot
lJeo lo tbe post, wbot elemeots
ot cltcomstooces bove cbooqeJ
sloce tbeo?
- wblcb ptevloos solouoos ot
exomples oboot yoot lJeo ote
tbe most fomlllot to yoot osets?
wby? uo tbese exomples belp ot
bloJet yoot ptoposeJ vlsloo?
Drawing insights &
implications
ln a pracuce presenLauon, Lhe workshop
Leam LesLed Lhelr lncompleLe vlslon wlLh
several oLher colleagues. 1he audlence
feedback was useful.
llrsL, Lhe audlence felL LhaL Lhe lnlual
sLaLemenL was sllghLly wordy, and Lhey
became losL ln uy words such as
Lransformauon." ln Lhe nexL lLerauon,
Lhe Leam declded Lo remove Lhe lndusLry
[argon and use slmpler language Lo
explaln Lhe core ldea for everyone.
A second reacuon was LhaL Lhelr
audlence llked hearlng speclc deLalls.
Saylng Mlcroso" lnsLead of large
Lechnology company" gave more
credlblllLy Lo Lhe vlslon because lL
showed allgnmenL wlLh Lhe 8&u eorLs
of a real company. 1he Leam also
consldered replaclng personal dlglLal
asslsLanLs" wlLh a more speclc and
accesslble example, such as 8lackberry
smarLphone," whlch would also help Lhelr
audlence undersLand Lhe perslsLenL user
need for Lhelr vlslon.
1hlrd, Lhelr vlslon sLaLemenL generaLed
qulck lnLeresL ln a posslble paLh forward.
1helr audlence wanLed Lo hear whaL
Lhe Leam was serlously plannlng Lo do
nexL. 1he Leam had spenL more ume
wordsmlLhlng Lhe rsL dra of Lhelr vlslon
sLaLemenL LhaL Lhey mlssed valuable ume
Lo agree on nexL sLeps. 1he managers
reallzed a good vlslon needed Lo end on
a clear call Lo acuon, so LhaL lL could help
generaLe commlLmenL
")(
216


ChapLer 7. vlslon
Cur vlslon ls Lo cteote o petsoool otufclol execouve
osslstoot tbot mokes seose of volomes of lofotmouoo to
belp yoo to moke Jeclsloos oo JemooJ. lL ls almosL
lmposslble Lo achleve because tbe ttoosfotmouoo of
volomes of lofotmouoo tepoltes tecbooloqles tbot we Joot
bove toJoy (e.q., systemouc ooolysls of ooy type of
lofotmouoo). 1he umlng ls rlghL Loday due Lo tbe
locteosloq coovetqeoce of tecbooloqles lo soclol oetwotkloq
tools, lloqolsucs, ooJ semoouc ooolysls. recedenLs of Lhls
ldea lnclude petsoool Jlqltol osslstoots ooJ tbe closslc
volet. 8y worklng wlLh Cooqle, 5Al, llxot, and Mlctosof,
we wlll make Lhls vlslon real ln 6 years by .
Once we hooked our
audiences interest,
they wanted to
know what we
would do next, so
our team had some
more work to do to
complete the vision
statement.
O
u
r au
d
ien
ce q
u
ick
ly
reacted
to the
lon
g
an
d
g
eek
y
d
escription
of ou
r
vision
, so w
e n
eed
ed
to rem
ove jarg
on

an
d
sim
plify
it.
We also learned that
people liked hearing
specific companies,
which added more
validity to our
crazy idea.
209
Tips & lessons from others
- Some of Lhe besL sources Lo spark
new vlslons are your lmaglnauon,
sclence cuon sLorles, and Lrlps
Lo oLher labs, companles, or
counLrles-whaLever shows a new
perspecuve or pracuce.
- SenLences 2-3 ln Lhe vlslon
sLaLemenL address Loday's slLuauon.
1he lasL senLence addresses Lhe
fuLure vlew.
- Avold plauLudes and generlc
phrases ln your vlslon, whlch wlll
Lend Lo bore oLhers and oer a
poor plannlng gulde for meanlngful
acuon.
- 8efraln from Lallorlng your vlslon
for your cusLomer now because
Loday's cusLomer wlll llkely
be dlerenL from Lomorrow's
cusLomer.
- 1he fewer words you use, Lhe
sLronger and more memorable your
vlslon wlll become.
- A really radlcal vlslon should be
rldlculous or preposLerous ln
some way Lo challenge Lhe norm.
1haL's why Lhe vlslon feels almosL
lmposslble.
kLILLC1ICN
0+4 ;6 42'$ #"/9T6
vision interesnnq to you?
"!)
Additional examples
A I|nn|sh team tested a rough v|s|on for an |ndustry consornum w|th
co||eagues, qu|ck|y |earn|ng beuer and more concrete ways to te||
the|r story.
An Amer|can m|||tary team tested a rough
v|s|on for a new so||der un|form that
|ntegrated the |atest techno|og|es |n fash|on,
sensors, commun|canons, and power that
was tru|y des|gned for the young generanon.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
"!!
vision Statement

Oot vlsloo ls to ____________________________________________.


lt ls olmost lmposslble to ocbleve becoose ______________________.

1be umloq ls tlqbt toJoy Joe to ______________________________.

lteceJeots of tbls lJeo locloJe _______________________________.


8y wotkloq wltb ___________, ___________, ooJ ___________,

we wlll moke tbls vlsloo teol lo ____ yeots

by ______________________________________________________.
1CuA?
lu1u8L
M
L
1
n
C
D

W
C
k
k
S
n
L
L
1

VISION STATEMENT | method worksheet
"!" "!"
Slnce 1938, Lhe u.S. uefense Advanced
8esearch ro[ecLs Agency-known as
uA8A for shorL-has pursued radlcal
lnnovauon, provldlng aL leasL a half-
cenLury of susLalned pracuce and
counLless examples of successful (and
also falled) vlslons of Lechnology-drlven
lnnovauon.
Augmented Cognition
program
ln 2001, uA8A's AugmenLed Cognluon
program presenLed a bold vlslon LhaL lald
Lhe groundwork for Lhe emerglng eld of
empaLheuc avlonlcs. 1he uA8A program
manager sLaLed: 1he goal. ls Lo exLend,
by an order of magnlLude or more, Lhe
lnformauon managemenL capaclLy of Lhe
human-compuLer relauonshlp for Lhe
21sL cenLury warghLer."
Several groups responded Lo Lhe uA8A
call. ln parucular, 8oelng hanLom Works
bullL a new Lype of helmeL, ln whlch
Lhe plloL becomes a parL of Lhe avlonlcs
sysLem, lnLeracung elecLrlcally wlLh hls or
her alrcra.
Legged Squad Support System
As anoLher example, uA8A's Legged
Squad SupporL SysLem (LS3) program
descrlbed a vlslon ln 2008 for a new Lype
of mlllLary pack mule. 1he vlslon sLaLed:
LS3 ls envlsloned Lo augmenL squads
by maneuverlng wlLh Lhem ln complex
Lerraln where wheeled Lacucal vehlcles
cannoL go."
8osLon uynamlcs, a u.S. englneerlng
rm, bullL a funcuonlng proLoLype called
8lguog. 1he rsL of lLs klnd, 8lguog carrles
heavy loads lndependenLly.
CASE STUDY | Technology visions at DARPA
Photo: Jeff Corwin Photography, Boeing
Photo: Boston Dynamics
"!#
Adapted from DARPA, the DARPA
Hard Test describes four qualities
of a radical innovation vision: far-
reaching, technically challenging,
multidisciplinary, and actionable.

When to use it
- 1o change Lhe sLaLe of Lhe eld by
an order of magnlLude
- 1o nd vlslonary ldeas LhaL, lf Lhey
could succeed, would be a large
sLep beyond whaL exlsung sclence
and Lechnology can permlL
Why its helpful
A uA8A Pard vlslon ls a darlng Lechnology
challenge LhaL cannoL be solved easlly,
Lyplcally requlrlng new knowledge or
lnvenuon Lo be addressed Lhrough
unorLhodox measures. 1hese vlslons
are seemlngly lmposslble, whlch ls whaL
ulumaLely characLerlzes Lhem as Lruly
radlcal. 1hey are dellberaLely deslgned Lo
be boLh hlgh rlsk and hlgh reward.
When you apply Lhe uA8A Pard 1esL
DARPA Hard Test

Lo your lnnovauon ldea, you galn a qulck
way Lo gauge how dlsrupuve your ldea
may (or may noL) be. lL leLs you see where
some gaps exlsL and, lf deslred, oers a
chance Lo sLreLch your vlslon furLher Lo be
Lruly vlslonary.
ln layman's Lerms, Lhe four vlslon
quallues assess how blg ls lL (far-reachlng),
how Lo do lL (Lechnlcally challenglng),
whaL you know (mulu-dlsclpllnary), and
when you sLarL (acuonable).
What you get
?ou ensure LhaL your lnnovauon vlslon
ls compleLely and genulnely radlcal from
Lhe sLarL. WlLh Lhe uA8A Pard 1esL, you
also apply a benchmark LhaL has proven
Lo be a smarL rule of Lhumb" for radlcal
lnnovauon vlslons.
"!$
The notion of DARPA Hard
Slnce 1938, Lhe u.S. uefense Advanced
8esearch ro[ecLs Agency-known
as uA8A for shorL-has pursued
radlcal lnnovauon. unllke oLher u.S.
governmenL agencles LhaL fund sclence
and englneerlng research, uA8A focuses
on Lhe forward edge of Lechnology.
uA8A has funded ldeas LhaL have led Lo
Lhe lnLerneL, alrcra sLealLh Lechnology,
Lhe global posluonlng sysLem (CS),
ulLrasound lmaglng, and more.
Cver Lhe years, uA8A program
managers have pursued vlslonary ldeas
LhaL Lhey call uA8A Pard." 1he Lerm
ls shorLhand for someLhlng consldered
exLremely hard Lo achleve. AlLhough noL
every ldea Lhey fund may be a success,
every pro[ecL sLarLs as uA8A Pard wlLh
Lhe promlse Lo dellver Lruly revoluuonary
capablllues. A uA8A Pard ldea ls boLh
hlgh rlsk and hlgh reward.
Four vision components
1hose ouLslde uA8A can apply a slmllar
prlnclple Lo Lhelr lnnovauon eorLs. WhaL
ls Lhe equlvalenL of uA8A Pard ln your
organlzauon? Pow do you know when you
have ldeas LhaL merlL radlcal lnnovauon?
?ou can use Lhe uA8A Pard 1esL.
AdapLed from uA8A, Lhe uA8A
Pard 1esL has four relaLed dlmenslons:
far-reachlng, Lechnlcally challenglng,
muludlsclpllnary, and acuonable. Whlle
each dlmenslon may exlsL lndependenLly,
lL ls Lhe comblnauon LhaL descrlbes a
real vlslonary ldea. 1he ldea ls noL [usL a
hard and complex problem Lo address, lL
becomes uA8A Pard. LeL's revlew each
dlmenslon now.
I. Iar-keach|ng: A far-reachlng ldea may
lmpacL many people, exLendlng wldely
ln lnuence and/or eecL. 1hese ldeas
change Lhe naLure of Lhe game, creaung
a paradlgm shl," a Lerm colned by
phllosopher 1homas kuhn ln 1962. lor
example, once people experlenced
Lhe new lnLeracuon model for a
Louchscreen moblle phone, Lhey cannoL
reLurn Lo an older way of usage. 1he
ldea fundamenLally changed how Lhey
LhoughL moblle phones should work.
II. 1echn|ca||y Cha||eng|ng: A Lechnlcally
challenglng ldea reseLs Lhe llmlLs of Loday's
knowledge. new lnvenuons and sclenuc
dlscoverles oen push lnnovauon ahead.
As wrlLer Slr ArLhur Clarke once wroLe,
Any sumclenLly advanced Lechnology
ls lndlsungulshable from maglc." uA8A
Pard vlslons oen provlde an lrreslsuble
challenge for englneers. AnoLher aspecL
of a Lechnlcal challenge ls Lhe lnLegrauon
of exlsung sysLem componenLs.
III. Mu|nd|sc|p||nary: A muludlsclpllnary
ldea Lakes more Lhan one person Lo
execuLe lL. Whlle Lhe soluuon may
be complex and even compllcaLed,
approachlng Lhe ldea requlres comblnlng
several professlonal speclallzauons and/
or elds of academlc sLudy.
IV. Acnonab|e: Acuonable ldeas are
lnLended Lo be bullL. As vlslons, Lhese ldeas
are more Lhan fanLasy or pollucal rheLorlc.
1hey should lnvoke lmmedlaLe acuon.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
"!%
V|s|on d|mens|on Dehn|non Lnd of sca|e (1) 1op of sca|e (7)
I. Iar-keach|ng
1he soluuon requlres a
compleLely new menLal
model, passlng Lhrough a
paradlgm shl
8equlres no
change ln how
people Lhlnk
abouL a soluuon
8equlres a paradlgm
shl ln how a soluuon
ls vlewed across socleLy
II. 1echn|ca||y
Cha||eng|ng
1he goal ls dlmculL Lo
lmplemenL elLher ln Lerms
of lnvenuons or sysLem
lnLegrauon requlred
8equlres no
new speclallzed
experuse
8equlres ma[or
advancemenLs ln
speclallzed experuse
III. Mu|nd|sc|p||nary
1he soluuon requlres
muluple bodles of
knowledge LhaL rarely
exlsL wlLhln one lndusLry
8equlres only
one class of
knowledge
8equlres muluple,
dlsuncL bodles of
knowledge
IV. Acnonab|e
1he rlghL people can see
a paLh Lo Lhe lmposslble
and can make progress
beglnnlng Loday
8equlres so much
clarlcauon LhaL
Lhe nexL sLep ls
anoLher meeung
8equlres llule eorL
Lo begln Laklng acuons
Loward Lhe soluuon
"!&
Lets look at an example
All uA8A Pard dlmenslons are measured
on seven-polnL lnLerval scales. Lach
scale's end polnL ls dened Lo lndlcaLe
whaL low" and hlgh" enLall for LhaL
dlmenslon.
llve vlslons for well-known lnnovauons
are ranked across Lhese scales, provldlng
a general benchmark Lo help you evaluaLe
your own vlslonary ldea. 1hese vlslons are
descrlbed brley.
A. Manhauan ro[ect
?ou are a physlcs graduaLe sLudenL aL
an Amerlcan unlverslLy ln 1942, and
your advlsor has asked you Lo [oln a new
secreuve mlllLary pro[ecL. 1he goal ls Lo
bulld Lhe world's rsL aLomlc bomb. 1he
unlLed SLaLes [olned Lhe WWll ghL aer
earl Parbor was bombed on uecember
8, 1941, and one day aer, Lhe u.S.
governmenL commlssloned a large-scale
aLomlc pro[ecL, whlch became known as
Lhe Manhauan ro[ecL.
8. Man on the moon
Cn a very hoL summer's day ln 1962, you
are slmng aL a fooLball sLadlum aL 8lce
unlverslLy ln 1exas, hearlng u.S. resldenL
!ohn l. kennedy glve a speech abouL
ouLer space. As a mld-career englneer,
you knew LhaL Lhe SovleL unlon opened
Lhe nal fronuer of space, when lL senL
Lhe SpuLnlk saLelllLe lnLo orblL ln 1937
and senL a man Lo space ln 1961. kennedy
says: We choose Lo go Lo Lhe moon
ln Lhls decade. because LhaL goal wlll
serve Lo organlze and measure Lhe besL
of our energles and skllls, because LhaL
challenge ls one LhaL we are wllllng Lo
accepL, one we are unwllllng Lo posLpone,
and one whlch we lnLend Lo wln, and Lhe
oLhers, Loo."

"!'
D. 100-ear Spacesh|p
?ou are readlng Lhe wosbloqtoo lost
newspaper over your hoLel's mornlng
coee. Cn !anuary 2012, uA8A and nASA
[olnLly announced a new lnluauve called
Lhe 100-?ear Spaceshlp (100?SS) lnLenL on
sendlng explorers Lo anoLher sLar sysLem
ln 100 years. ?ou nd Lhe 100?SS mlsslon
sLaLemenL from uA8A LhaL sLaLes:
100 ?ear SLarshlp wlll unreservedly
dedlcaLe lLself Lo ldenufylng and pushlng
Lhe radlcal leaps ln knowledge and
Lechnology needed Lo achleve lnLersLellar
lghL whlle ploneerlng and Lransformlng
breakLhrough appllcauons Lo enhance
Lhe quallLy of llfe on earLh. rograms Lo
esLabllsh a human presence on Lhe moon,
Mars, or elsewhere ln our solar sysLem
wlll be sLepplng-sLones Lo Lhe sLars."
L. 8arce|ona C|ty rotoco|
?ou are an Luropean clLy planner lnvlLed
Lo an early plannlng workshop. ln Lhe
sprlng of 2012, Lhe clLy of 8arcelona
announced LhaL lL alms Lo be a global
reference model for susLalnable urban
developmenL" ln 10 years. arL of
Lhe vlslon enLalls developlng a ClLy
roLocol" model, whlch wlll be Lhe rsL
cerucauon sysLem for smarL clues" LhaL
wlll measure Lhe emclency and quallLy of
a clLy. lanned clLy servlces for 8arcelona
wlll lnclude a smarL bus neLwork, Lhe
energy monlLorlng of publlc bulldlngs,
and pay-per-use model for clLy llghung.
8arcelona's mayor sLaLed, 8arcelona has
a sLrong commlLmenL Lo become a smarL
clLy and a show case for Lhe resL of Lhe
world ln susLalnable urban developmenL."
C. Doub||ng human ||fe
ln 2008, you declde Lo auend Lhe rsL u.S.
conference abouL human aglng, hosLed
by 1he MeLhuselah loundauon aL Lhe
unlverslLy of Callfornla ln Los Angeles. lor
several years, 8rlush researcher Aubrey de
Crey has clalmed LhaL humans could llve
for 1,000 years. ?ou've also been followlng
Lhe work of 8lll Andrews, dlrecLor of
molecular blology aL Callfornla-based
bloLech rm Ceron. ulseases relaLed Lo
aglng, llke demenua and hearL dlsease,
currenLly block humans from reachlng
long llfe, and human body parLs wear ouL
from use. ln Lhe quesL for lmmorLallLy,
sclenusLs should focus on unlocklng Lhe
molecular mechanlsms of aglng.
"!(
Instructions
1. llrsL assess how far-reachlng your
vlslon ls and score lL on scale l.
2. LvaluaLe Lhe level of Lechnlcal
challenge for your vlslon and score lL
on scale ll.
3. nexL gauge Lhe level of muludlsclpll-
nary commlLmenL your vlslon
requlres and score lL on scale lll.
4. llnally evaluaLe Lhe ablllLy Lo Lake
lmmedlaLe acuon on your vlslon
and score lL on scale lv.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he leuers for each
vlslon correspond Lo Lhe leuers ln Lhe
dlagram.
V|s|on d|mens|on uesnons for team d|scuss|on Suggested methods to he|p address
Iar-keach|ng
# Pow does Lhe launch horlzon compare Lo
your organlzauon and lndusLry umellnes?
# uo you wanL Lo creaLe a new Lechnology
use or creaLe a new markeL?
# use Lhe !anus Cones Lo gauge pasL
umeframes Lo develop a basellne
# 1ry Lhe uark Porse roLoLype Lo
quesuon hldden preconcepuons
1echn|ca||y
Cha||eng|ng
# ls Lhe problem almosL unLhlnkable Lo solve
due Lo complex lnLerdependencles and
hlgh levels of amblgulLy?
# use rogresslon Curves Lo revlew Lhe
sLaLe of Lhe eld and ldea precedenLs
Mu|nd|sc|p||nary
# uoes your vlslon fall ouLslde of Lhe usual
boundarles and aL leasL Lwo academlc
elds?
# Apply Lhe ConLexL Maps and WhlLe
SpoLs meLhods Lo assess Lhe ldea from
Lhe vlew of varlous elds
Acnonab|e
# Can you presenL Lhe vlslon as a slngle
challenge Lo Lhose who wlll bulld lL?
# use Lhe vlslon SLaLemenL meLhod Lo
sharpen and slmpllfy your sLory
219
226

DAkA nard 1est: Iar-keach|ng
ChapLer 7. vlslon
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
8equlres a paradlgm shl
ln how a soluuon ls
vlewed across socleLy
8equlres no change ln
how people Lhlnk abouL a
soluuon
Moo oo tbe mooo
100-eot 5pocesblp
Moobouoo ltoject
uooblloq bomoo llfe
A. A contemporary bold
idea that humans could
control nuclear power
safely and strategically
uenluon: 1he soluuon requlres a compleLely new menLal model,
passlng Lhrough a paradlgm shl
D. Stuff of science fiction
to travel to stars
B. A stretch goal that
built on previous efforts
to put a satellite and
man into orbit
l ll lv lll
C
. A
n
idea that baffles the
m
ain
stream
scien
tific
com
m
un
ity

clty of 8otcelooo
E. An ambitious goal to
build next generation
city services for one
region
"")
227

DAkA nard 1est: 1echn|ca||y Cha||eng|ng
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
8equlres ma[or
advancemenLs ln
speclallzed experuse
8equlres no new
speclallzed experuse
Moo oo tbe mooo
100-eot 5pocesblp
Moobouoo ltoject
uooblloq bomoo llfe
uenluon: 1he goal ls dlmculL Lo lmplemenL elLher ln Lerms of
lnvenuons or sysLem lnLegrauon requlred
D. Requires radical
advancements in many
systems from life-support
to ship propulsion to
manufacturing
B. Difficult problem
without computer aid,
drawing on earlier
success of the first
Russian cosmonaut
C. No proven solutions to date that reverse or stop hum
an aging
l ll lv lll
A. Requires inventing new precision techniques for
mass produced explosives
clty of 8otcelooo
E. Requires the
integration of existing
pervasive and physical
network infrastructures
""!

DAkA nard 1est: Mu|nd|sc|p||nary
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
8equlres muluple, dlsuncL
bodles of knowledge
8equlres only one class of
knowledge
Moo oo tbe mooo
100-eot 5pocesblp
Moobouoo ltoject
uooblloq bomoo llfe
A. Assimilated concepts
and leaders from all
scientific fields and
engineering disciplines
uenluon: 1he soluuon requlres muluple bodles of knowledge LhaL
rarely exlsL wlLhln one lndusLry
D. Vision can only be
achieved by the cooperation
of multiple diverse groups
B. Helped create a new
field of aerospace
engineering
C. Fostering a new scientific discipline of geroscience
l ll lv lll
clty of 8otcelooo
E. Joint coalition between
different government
groups, city planners,
and businesses
"""
229

DAkA nard 1est: Acnonab|e
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
8equlres llule eorL Lo
begln Laklng acuons
Loward Lhe soluuon
8equlres so much
clarlcauon LhaL Lhe nexL
sLep ls anoLher meeung
Moo oo tbe mooo
uooblloq bomoo llfe
Moobouoo ltoject
100-eot 5pocesblp
A. Presidents approval
expedited efforts and
funding nation-wide
uenluon: 1he rlghL people can see a paLh Lo Lhe lmposslble and can
make progress beglnnlng Loday
C. Biomedical research
grants now available from
several groups
B. Established a new
U.S. space agency called
NASA to centralize and
mobilize efforts
D. First step was to conduct
feasibility study and
provoke possible partners
l ll lv lll
clty of 8otcelooo
E. A committee-driven
approach managed by a
global technology company
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
""#
Drawing insights &
implications
1he benchmark analysls of ve well-
known lnnovauons reveal LhaL Lhelr vlslon
scorlng dlers sllghLly across all scales.
Moreover, each vlslon's scorlng may shl
durlng dlerenL sLages of lLs developmenL
and ln conLexL Lo socleLy's vlews of Lhe ume.
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
Far-
Reaching
Technically
Challenging
Multi-
Disciplinary Actionable
Manhattan
Project
Man on
the moon
Doubling
human life
100-Year
Spaceship
Barcelona
City Protocol
Bu||d the frst atom|c
bomb |n 1942
|and a man on the
moon |n 1962
Reset human ag|ng
||m|ts |n 2008
v|s|t another so|ar
system by 2112
Make a susta|nab|e
urban mode| by 2022
""$
Tips & lessons from others
- uon'L Lry Lo score perfecLly from
Lhe sLarL. lnsLead use Lhe uA8A
Pard 1esL Lo pre-LesL your vlslon,
whlch you wlll wanL Lo Lhen rework
and co-develop wlLh your broader
neLwork.
- Conslder averaglng scores from
colleagues and parLners as a way Lo
gauge your neLwork's lmpresslon of
your ldea's vlslonary poLenual.
kLILLC1ICN
0+;(+ 3;9"86;28 27 #+"
&*@!* J/$3 E"6# 1;.. :"
926# (+/.."8<;8< 72$
your orqonitonon?
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
8equlres a paradlgm shl
ln how a soluuon ls
consldered across socleLy
8equlres no change ln
how people Lhlnk abouL a
soluuon
uenluon: 1he soluuon requlres a compleLely
new menLal model, passlng Lhrough a paradlgm
shl
l ll lv lll
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
8equlres ma[or
advancemenLs ln
Lechnlcal knowledge
8equlres no new
Lechnlcal knowledge
uenluon: 1he goal ls almosL Lechnlcally
lmposslble wlLhouL becomlng maglcal"
l ll lv lll
1echn|ca||y Cha||eng|ng
Iar-keach|ng
D
CCMAkISCN LkAMLLS
A. Moobouoo ltoject
8. Moo oo tbe mooo
c. uooblloq bomoo llfe
u. 100-eot 5pocesblp
. 8otcelooo clty ltotocol
A
8
C D
A
8
C
M
L
1
n
C
D

W
C
k
k
S
n
L
L
1

233
L
L
DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet #1
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
234

7
1
2
3
4
5
6
8equlres muluple, dlsuncL
bodles of knowledge
8equlres only one class of
knowledge
uenluon: 1he soluuon requlres muluple
bodles of knowledge LhaL rarely exlsL wlLhln one
lndusLry
l ll lv lll
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
8equlres llule eorL Lo
begln Laklng acuons
Loward Lhe soluuon
8equlres so much
clarlcauon LhaL Lhe nexL
sLep ls [usL anoLher
meeung
uenluon: 1he rlghL people can see a paLh Lo
Lhe lmposslble and can make progress
beglnnlng Loday
l ll lv lll
Acnonab|e Mu|nd|sc|p||nary
M
L
1
n
C
D

W
C
k
k
S
n
L
L
1

D
A
8
C
8
C
A
D
L L
CCMAkISCN LkAMLLS
A. Moobouoo ltoject
8. Moo oo tbe mooo
c. uooblloq bomoo llfe
u. 100-eot 5pocesblp
. 8otcelooo clty ltotocol
DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet #2
""'
When Ceorge Pellmeler was Lhe dlrecLor
of uA8A (Lhen called A8A) ln Lhe mld-
1970s, he expecLed every proposal for
a new research program Lo answer
a sLandard seL of quesuons. 1hese
quesuons have been called Lhe Pellmeler
CaLechlsm or Pellmeler's crlLerla. known
by many Lechnology managers, hls
quesuons helped ensure a Lechnlcal ldea
had pracucal appllcauon.
Pellmeler's crlLerla are a useful way
Lo LesL your own group's vlslon and as a
way Lo convey Lo oLhers whaL you hope
Lo accompllsh. Several verslons have
clrculaLed slnce, and Lhe mosL common
verslon ls as follows:

1. WhaL ls Lhe problem, and why ls lL
hard? (aruculaLe your ob[ecuves
uslng absoluLely no [argon)
2. Pow ls lL done Loday, and whaL are
Lhe llmlLs of currenL pracuce?
3. WhaL's new ln your approach,
and why do you Lhlnk lL wlll be
successful?
4. Who cares? lf you're successful,
whaL dlerence wlll lL make?
3. WhaL are Lhe rlsks and Lhe
payos?
6. Pow much wlll lL cosL? Pow long
wlll lL Lake?
7. WhaL are Lhe mldLerm and nal
exams" Lo check for success?

CASE STUDY | The Heilmeier Catechism at DARPA
""(
Many people know WalL ulsney for hls
emplre of ulsneyland, ulsney World,
and ulsney carLoons. 8eyond creaung
new lndusLrles ln anlmauon and
amusemenL parks ln hls llfeume, ulsney
also lnuenced Amerlcan socleLy ln oLher
ways. lor example, durlng Lhe 1930s, he
explored Lhe ldeas of space explorauon
and space Lravel ln several ulsneyland 1v
shows, whlch helped creaLe sLrong publlc
supporL for Lhe burgeonlng u.S. space
program.
ulsney also lnuenced how people
Lhlnk abouL susLalnable clues. Pls lasL
lm presenLed a bold vlslon for a concepL
called Lhe LxperlmenLal roLoLype
CommunlLy of 1omorrow", oLherwlse
known as LCC1.
LCC1 was an ldeallzed clLy, where
people would llve, work and play. 8ulldlng
on famlllar ldeas of Lhe ume, LCC1
evokes Lhe Luropean concepL of Carden
Clues and Lhe popular World lalrs.
A grand challenge
1he vlslon for LCC1 was rsL presenLed
ln CcLober 1966 Lo Lhe Amerlcan publlc
on nauonal Lelevlslon as parL of Lhe
weekly ulsneyland serles.
ln hls lm, ulsney's vlslon ls sLrucLured
ln Lhree parLs LhaL correspond Lo Lhe rsL
Lhree phases of Lhe foreslghL process:
erspecuve, CpporLunlLy, and Soluuon.
ln Lhe rsL secuon, Lhe narraLor
presenLs a brlef hlsLory of ulsney's
work, quoung experLs and esLabllshlng
credlblllLy wlLh Lhe audlence-all of whlch
oers perspecuve Lo Lhe vlewers. A good
vlslon embodles Lhe bellefs and values
of Lhe ume, and lL was no dlerenL wlLh
LCC1. lor example, Lhe clLy locauon was
dellberaLely placed aL Lhe lnLersecuon of
Lwo ma[or hlghways, [usL as Lhe Amerlcan
lnLersLaLe sysLem was ourlshlng and
famlly road Lrlps were becomlng popular.
ln Lhe nexL secuon, ulsney ouLllnes
Lhe opporLunlLy for hls blg ldea, showlng
CASE STUDY | The original vision of EPCOT
why lL ls addresses Lhe needs of workers,
famllles, and buslnesses. LCC1 was Lo
be a self-susLalnlng and self-governlng
clLy deslgned for publlc need, noL
enLerLalnmenL. ulsney hoped LhaL
LCC1 would have a blg lmpacL on urban
plannlng and communlLy developmenL
because Lhe clLy would become a plloL
operauon for Lhe Leachlng age-Lo
go across Lhe counLry and across Lhe
world."
ln Lhe nal secuon, he explalns how
LCC1 could work as a soluuon and helps
people Lo lmaglne Lhe new communlLy by
showlng anlmaLed skeLches, lllusLrauons,
and oLher rough proLoLypes. ulsney
posed hls vlslon as a challenge Lo Lhe
general Amerlcan publlc, saylng: l
don'L belleve Lhere's a grand challenge
anywhere ln Lhe world LhaL's more
lmporLanL Lo people everywhere Lhan
ndlng soluuons Lo Lhe problems of our
clues."
229
Was the vision DARPA Hard?
WalL ulsney's vlslon for LCC1 was bold
and unbellevable Lo many. 1he language
LhroughouL Lhe lm ls wonderfully
scrlpLed, relnforclng Lhe four quallues of a
radlcal vlslon.
1. Iar-keach|ng: LCC1 was a blg
ldea LhaL would Lake boLh ume and
complex lnLegrauon Lo bulld.
2. 1echn|ca||y cha||eng|ng: LCC1
was an enurely new clLy wlLh
new lnfrasLrucLure ldeas, such
a regulaLed cllmaLe sysLem, ln a
locauon far away from Lhe ulsney
enLerprlse-Lruly uA8A Pard.
3. Mu|nd|sc|p||nary: Whlle ulsney
was Lhe spokesperson, he needed
Lhe paruclpauon of muluple groups
from governmenL, lndusLry, and
Lhe communlLy Lo make Lhe ldea of
LCC1 real.
4. Acnonab|e: ulsney appealed Lo
oLher companles Lo help show
how Lhey could geL lnvolved
lmmedlaLely.
The vision of EPCOT today
ulsney dled soon aer hls vldeo alred,
and Lhe momenLum for LCC1 sLopped
for a ume. A vlslonary ls oen closely
llnked Lo hls/her vlslon. AlLhough
ulsney's broLher and managemenL
Leam pursued parLs of Lhe ldea, Lhey
bullL a dlerenL verslon under Lhe same
name-whlch lncluded a Lheme park
LhaL opened ln 1982 and a planned clLy
called Celebrauon LhaL was developed
ln Lhe mld-1990s.
Was LCC1 a falled vlslon? no,
because anoLher Leam pursued a
dlerenL ldea. ulumaLely, many of Lhe
ldeas behlnd Lhe orlglnal LCC1 vlslon
were gradually embraced by Amerlcan
socleLy ln Lhe ensulng decades.
Source: WalL ulsney SLudlos Pome LnLerLalnmenL
"#)
2012 Wllllam Cockayne & 1amara CarleLon
Pathfnders charts the path for
an idea to fnd success based on
formal and informal rules within an
organization or network.

When to use it
- 1o help your Leam revlew Lhe
organlzauonal Lralls of pasL
lnnovauon ldeas
- 1o charL Lhe success paLh for your
new ldea
Why its helpful
Cnce a promlslng blg ldea ls found, many
managers are oen challenged Lo Lake
Lhe ldea back Lo senlor managemenL or
Lo Lhe maln organlzauon for a welcome
recepuon. Many umes successful ldeas
do noL follow sLandard procedure or
Lhe prescrlbed sLage-gaLe process ln an
organlzauon. 1hese ldeas usually have Lo
creaLe Lhelr own paLhs Lo success.
1he aLhnders meLhod borrows from
Lhe pracuce of wayndlng, whlch ls Lhe
human process of uslng vlsual cues and
landmarks Lo navlgaLe physlcal space. lor
example, wayndlng ls crlucal ln alrporLs
and conference cenLers, whlch rely on
Pathfinders

muluple Lypes of slgns Lo orlenL and
dlrecL crowds.
knowlng how your Leam llkes Lo proceed,
as well as Lhe organlzauonal paLhs from
prevlous ldeas, wlll help you advance and
navlgaLe a new ldea. ulerenL Lypes of
navlgaLors exlsL. Landmark navlgaLors look
for dlsuncuve bulldlngs or upcomlng evenLs
ln Lhe near dlsLance Lo plck whlch dlrecuon
Lo go nexL. 8ouLe navlgaLors deLermlne
new paLhs by connecung or exLendlng from
famlllar locauons and sLreeL slgns. Map
navlgaLors rely on spaual relauonshlps,
preferrlng slLe dlagrams and "you are here"
lndlcaLors. Wanderers meander lndlrecLly
Lo Lhelr desunauon aL no seL pace, versus
hunLers who move rapldly Lo a LargeL.
What you get
A vlsual map for your ldea's paLh Lo success
wlll provlde clear cues and landmarks on
how Lo navlgaLe Lhe sLaLed and unsLaLed
rules wlLhln Lhe organlzauon.
"#!
Lets look at an example
A Leam of user experlence researchers aL a
large consumer elecLronlcs manufacLurer
wanLed Lo ensure LhaL Lhelr laLesL
ldea would y Lhrough Lhelr dlvlslon's
approval process. lrom pasL experlence,
Lhey knew LhaL a new ldea faced muluple
organlzauonal LesLs and obsLacles.
uslng Lhe aLhnders meLhod, Lhey
drew a sLralghL llne LhaL represenLed an
ldea's asslgned paLh. Along Lhls llne, Lhey
began Lo noLe Lyplcal mllesLones, such as
a feaslblllLy sLudy for a new concepL.
1hen, Lhey consldered Lwo ldeas LhaL
had been pursued ln Lhe pasL year: one
whlch had sLalled aer several monLhs and
anoLher whlch qulckly goL Lhe auenuon
of Lhe C1C. 1hey charLed Lhe paLh of boLh
ldeas from Lhe sLarL of Lhe sLralghL llne,
marklng addluonal evenLs ln each ldea's
early formauon. LvenLs LhaL helped Lo
acceleraLe developmenL were noLed above
Lhe llne and evenLs LhaL hlndered an ldea's
progress were placed below Lhe llne.
Casual proposal
aL Lrade show
Culck
plLch aL
dlrecLor
meeung
Speclal
seed
fundlng
luLure
scenarlo
of producL
(wlLh no
evldence)
lnformal
cusLomer
plloL
1echnlcal
demo
luLA #1
luLA #2
Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012
"#"
Instructions
1. uraw a sLralghL llne LhaL represenLs
Lhe recommended rouLe for new
ldeas wlLhln your organlzauon
(or group) and noLe all Lhe ma[or
mllesLones your group should
follow for successful approval Lo
execuLe. 1he sLarung polnL ls Lhe
lnlual concepL by an lndlvldual
or Leam, and Lhe end polnL ls
when Lhe ldea ls fully accepLed by
managemenL. We wlll call Lhls Lhe
lnnovauon waLer llne."
2. now ldenufy 2-4 dlerenL lnnovauon
ldeas LhaL were pursed wlLhln your
organlzauon and sLarL Lhelr paLhs
from Lhe same sLarung polnL aL Lhe
le slde of Lhe sLralghL llne.
Afet yoot teom bos completeJ oo
loluol ooolysls, we soqqest yoo tefect
btlefy oo wbot yoo bove leotoeJ lo
tbe ptocess. nete ote some poesuoos
to ftome yoot qtoops Jlscossloo ooJ
oJvooce yoot tblokloq.
uesnons for teom discussion
- wblcb lJeos followeJ slmllot
potbs?
- wbete JlJ cettolo peoks occot?
- wbot skllls ote tepolteJ to move
oo lJeo olooq?
3. lor each ldea, noLe all Lhe acuons
or ma[or sLeps LhaL allowed each
ldea Lo move ahead. 1hese acuons
may lnclude proposal deadllnes,
deparLmenL dlscusslons, fundlng
evaluauons, commluee revlews,
or revlew by oLher unlLs and
sLakeholders ouLslde your dlvlslon.
4. uraw Lhe ldea's paLh up above Lhe
waLer llne lf a parucular acuon
or group acceleraLes Lhe ldea's
progress. uraw Lhe paLh down
under Lhe llne lf an acuon or group
slows down or hlnders Lhe ldea's
progress.
- See Lhe ad[acenL dlagram for an
annoLaLed example. 1he numbers ln Lhe
lnsLrucuons correspond Lo Lhe numbers
ln Lhe dlagram.
"##



1. On the straight line,
we note the standard
milestones an idea
must undergo, which
usually starts during
an ideation session at
our companys annual
R&D planning offsite
2. We select two ideas that were pursued in
the past year: one which stalled after
several months and another which
quickly got the attention of the CTO
3. We then trace each
ideas progress,
marking specific
events in its timeline
4. We drew the path up
above the water line
when a particular event
moved the idea ahead and
drew the path down when
the idea slowed down for
any reason
Casual proposal
aL Lrade show
Culck
plLch aL
dlrecLor
meeung
Speclal
seed
fundlng
luLure
scenarlo
of producL
(wlLh no
evldence)
lnformal
cusLomer
plloL
1echnlcal
demo
luLA #1
luLA #2
Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012
"#$
Drawing insights &
implications
8y comparlng Lhe paLhs of Lwo prevlous
ldeas, Lhe Leam reamrmed LhaL Lhe
real paLh for an ldea was a mlx of Lhe
formal rouLe wlLh lnformal measures. ln
parucular, Lhey saw LhaL one ldea slowed
down conslderably from lncepuon unul lL
compleLed sLalled.
Cn furLher reecuon, Lhe Leam saw LhaL
Lhe ldea below Lhe lnnovauon waLer llne
was heavlly Lechnology-led. 1he ldea dld
noL go Lhrough a sLandard feaslblllLy sLudy
nor dld lL lnclude any user feedback. Slnce
Lhelr Leam operaLed ln an englneerlng-
drlven culLure, Lhey knew lL was common
and hlghly accepLable Lo propose and
develop new ldeas based around a new
Lechnology. 1he drawback was LhaL much
eorL was spenL durlng laLer sLages looklng
for poLenual markeLs and also reworklng
Lhe Lechnlcal soluuon around unexpecLed
user feedback. ln conLrasL, Lhe more
successful ldea lncorporaLed an lnformal
cusLomer plloL LhaL helped valldaLe lLs
value Lo managemenL from Lhe sLarL.
LasLly, Lhe Leam dld noL use any scales
Lo [udge posluve or negauve dlrecuon. 8y
slmply drawlng Lhe ldea paLhs up or down,
Lhey dlscovered LhaL peaks on Lhe upper
slde of Lhe waLer llne ls whaL Lhey wanLed
Lo mlmlc for Lhelr new ldea, whlle dlps on
Lhe lower slde oered clues on whaL Lo
address early or slmply avold. Cverall, lL
was a good qulck ex exerclse Lo help Lhem
plan ahead wlLh foreslghL.
"#%



The starting proposal
was a good reminder
about the value of
informal actions to
our team
We also realized that other
avenues for execution can
open up, such as a new
seed fund established
within another division
Our engineering-driven
culture often leads to a
technology idea looking
for a user for a while
Casual proposal
aL Lrade show
Culck
plLch aL
dlrecLor
meeung
Speclal
seed
fundlng
luLure
scenarlo
of producL
(wlLh no
evldence)
lnformal
cusLomer
plloL
1echnlcal
demo
luLA #1
luLA #2
Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012
"#&
Tips & lessons from others
- Some Leams llke Lo draw depLh
marklngs for low, medlum, and hlgh
above and below Lhe lnnovauon
waLer llne as a way Lo noLe Lhe
amounL of progress (or lack of) for
each ldea.
- CharL Lhe Lralls of muluple ldeas
so your Leam has more polnLs Lo
compare and conLrasL.
kLILLC1ICN
0+/# #45" 27 8/=;</#2$
F"-<-O ./839/$)O $2'#"O
9/5O 1/83"$"$O +'8#"$G
/$" 42' /# 12$)>
"#'
Additional examples
An Amer|can m|||tary team respons|b|e for new techno|ogy so|unons
rev|ewed the progress of two separate pro[ects aga|nst the|r group's
recommended |nnovanon path, wh|ch he|ped them determ|ne what they
shou|d do next for the|r new |dea.
A manager at a |arge med|a company reected on the path for a
current |n|nanve, d|scover|ng that past events advanced the |dea
cons|derab|y but that annc|pated future eventsdrawn aher a
doued vernca| ||newou|d ||ke|y hamper the team's progress.
!"#! %&''&() *+,-(./0 1 2()(3( *(3'04+/
Pathfinders | method worksheet
M
y notes:
2J9
"??{,,,?{),,),?{%,,
%,?{|,)|,|L."
(5mellloq ls beuet tboo ootbloq,
seeloq ls beuet tboo smellloq,
ooJetstooJloq ls beuet tboo seeloq,
Joloq ls beuet tboo ooJetstooJloq,
ooJ Joloq sbows ttoe leotoloq.)
- cbloese ptovetb
"lsojo kolojo koooouoo pyytoo volkkel solslkooo."
(llsbloq fot blq fsb ls wottb lt,
eveo lf yoo Joot cotcb ooe.)
- lloolsb ptovetb
!"#
APPENDIX
Shortcuts
Sponsors 241
Development team 243
Research partners 246
Terms of use 248
Suggested readings 249
Data sources 255
"$!
The playbook team gratefully
acknowledges generous support
from Tekes and the Lappeenranta
University of Technology (LUT) in
Finland.
TEKES
As Lhe Lhe llnnlsh lundlng Agency for
1echnology and lnnovauon, 1ekes ls Lhe
mosL lmporLanL publlcly funded experL
organlzauon for nanclng research,
developmenL and lnnovauon ln llnland.
1he agency boosLs wlde-ranglng
lnnovauon acuvlues ln research
communlues, lndusLry and servlce
secLors. 1ekes promoLes a broad-based
vlew on lnnovauon: besldes fundlng
Lechnologlcal breakLhroughs, 1ekes
emphaslzes Lhe slgnlcance of servlce-
relaLed, deslgn, buslness, and soclal
lnnovauons.
About our sponsors

1ekes works wlLh Lhe Lop lnnovauve
companles and research unlLs ln llnland.
Lvery year, 1ekes nances some 1,300
buslness research and developmenL
pro[ecLs, and almosL 600 publlc research
pro[ecLs aL unlverslues, research lnsuLuLes
and polyLechnlcs.
8esearch, developmenL and lnnovauon
fundlng ls LargeLed Lo pro[ecLs LhaL creaLe ln
Lhe long-Lerm Lhe greaLesL beneLs for Lhe
economy and socleLy. 1ekes does noL derlve
any nanclal proL from lLs acuvlues, nor
clalm any lnLellecLual proprleLary rlghLs.
- www.tekes.h]en
"$"
Lappeenranta University
of Technology
Lver slnce lLs foundauon ln 1969,
LappeenranLa unlverslLy of 1echnology
(Lu1) has broughL LogeLher Lechnology
and economlcs ln a ploneerlng splrlL.
Lu1's sLraLeglc focus areas are green
energy and Lechnology, Lhe creauon
of susLalnable compeuuveness and
operauon as a hub of lnLernauonal
8usslan relauons. Lu1's lnLernauonal
sclenuc communlLy conslsLs of 7,000
sLudenLs and experLs.
See more abouL llnland's
greenesL campus aL
- www.greencampus.h]en
Lahn Schoo| of Innovanon
A reglonal unlL of Lu1, Lahu School of
lnnovauon (LSl) was esLabllshed ln 1996 as
a muludlsclpllnary research unlL focused
on pracuce-based lnnovauon. LSl applles
a wlde concepL of lnnovauon. 1wo goals
are Lo break Lhe Lradluonal llnear model of
lnnovauon and Lo overcome boundarles
Lhrough lnLellecLual cross-ferullzauon.
1he work of LSl ls characLerlzed by
sLrong lnLeracuon beLween research and
developmenL acuvlues.
ApproxlmaLely 30 researchers and
developers work LogeLher aL LSl,
represenung Lhe varlous dlsclpllnes
of englneerlng sclences, buslness
economlcs, educauon, soclal sclences,
arLs, LheaLre, and geography.
llelds of research lnclude:
- lnnovauon sysLems, collecuve
creauvlLy, lnnovauon pollcy
- ManagemenL of foreslghL
knowledge
- LnLrepreneurshlp, managemenL
and leadershlp, neLworks
- Servlce lnnovauons
- erformance measuremenL,
producuvlLy and managemenL
accounung
LSl conLrlbuLes acuvely Lo developlng
approaches, meLhodologles, and
evaluauon Lools for lnLroduclng, applylng
and dlssemlnaung lnnovauon pracuces
and resulLs of 8&u acuvlues ln publlc,
prlvaLe and Lhlrd secLor organlzauons.
LSl's research and collaborauon resulLs
are lnLroduced ln Lhe book enuLled
ltocuce-8oseJ looovouoo. loslqbts,
Appllcouoos ooJ lollcy lmpllcouoos
(Sprlnger, 2012).

- www.|ut.h]|ahn]en]
"$#
Tamara Carleton, Ph.D.
1amara CarleLon, h.u., ls founder and
chlef execuuve of lnnovauon Leadershlp
8oard LLC, a global leader ln Lhe deslgn
of Lools and processes LhaL enable radlcal
lnnovauon. CllenL organlzauons have
lncluded ueuLsche 8ank, Mlcroso,
Samsung, SA, 1ekes, and volvo.
CarleLon currenLly serves as a fellow
aL Lhe u.S. Chamber of Commerce
loundauon, explorlng Lhemes of
lnnovauon and abundance LhaL aecL
Amerlcan growLh and prosperlLy.
revlously, she was a fellow wlLh Lhe
loundauon for LnLerprlse uevelopmenL
and also a fellow for Lhe 8ay Area Sclence
and lnnovauon Consoruum.
CarleLon Leaches organlzauonal
lnnovauon and foreslghL sLraLegy
ln SLanford unlverslLy's School of
Lnglneerlng execuuve educauon program.
urawlng on her buslness experlence,
CarleLon's research agenda focuses on
lndusLry lnnovauon, parucularly lssues
relaLed Lo Lechnlcal vlslonary leadershlp,
lnnovauon culLure, reglonal lnnovauon,
and foreslghL sLraLegy. 1hls work bullds
on her ploneerlng sLudy of Lhe lnnovauon
pracuces of Lhe u.S. uefense Advanced
8esearch ro[ecLs Agency (uA8A).
A former managemenL consulLanL
aL uelolue Consulung LL, CarleLon
speclallzed ln emerglng soluuons ln
enLerprlse appllcauons, cusLomer
experlence, and markeung sLraLegy. AL
uelolue, she developed Lwo proprleLary
meLhodologles, Lhe CusLomer Lxperlence
AudlL and ersona ueslgn, whlch were
lncorporaLed lnLo cllenL servlce oerlngs.
CarleLon holds a docLoraLe ln
mechanlcal englneerlng from SLanford
unlverslLy, a masLers of sclence ln publlc
relauons from Syracuse unlverslLy, and
a bachelor's degree ln communlcauon
from 1he Ceorge WashlngLon unlverslLy.
She has been publlshed ln a varleLy of
Lechnlcal [ournals, as well as Lhe general
buslness press. MosL recenLly, CarleLon
edlLed Lhe book 5ostololoq looovouoo.
collobotouoo MoJels fot o complex wotlJ
About the development team

(Sprlnger, 2011) LhaL explores emerglng
lnsuLuuonal models of susLalnable
lnnovauon from muluple lnLernauonal
vlewpolnLs. She ls frequenLly lnvlLed
Lo dlscuss her work and research ln Lhe
unlLed SLaLes and abroad.
"$$
William Cockayne, Ph.D.
Wllllam Cockayne, h.u., ls a Lechnology
lnnovaLor and leader. Pe ls Lhe CLC and
founder of PandsLand lnc., whlch ls an
award-wlnnlng appllcaLlon developer of
conLenL, dlglLal medla, and educaLlonal
producLs.
revlously, he held senlor roles
ln Lechnology research and producL
developmenL aL Sk 1elecom Amerlcas,
LasLman kodak, ualmler8enz, and Apple
CompuLer. A seasoned enLrepreneur,
Cockayne was also co-founder and chlef
Lechnology omcer of ScouL LlecLromedla,
a consumer moblle company LhaL
ploneered moblle adveruslng, soclal
medla, and barcodes on moblle dlsplays.
Cockayne brlngs hls real-world
experlence Lo unlverslues. Pe Leaches
emerglng Lechnologles and lnnovauon
sLraLegy ln ML410, lnnovauon & loreslghL,
wlLhln Lhe School of Lnglneerlng aL
SLanford unlverslLy. Cockayne has
also lnLroduced new currlcula ln hlgh-
Lechnology enLrepreneurshlp for Lhe
uer-one research unlverslues across
SwlLzerland and also ln dlglLal modellng,
vlrLual envlronmenLs, and slmulauon
(MCvLS) aL Lhe naval osLgraduaLe
School ln Callfornla.
Cockayne holds a docLoraLe ln
mechanlcal englneerlng and a masLers
of sclence ln compuLer sclence. Pe ls a
regular speaker and advlsor on Loplcs
of lndusLrlal research and developmenL,
dlsrupuve lnnovauon, and Lechnology
enLrepreneurshlp. Pe holds muluple
paLenLs and has auLhored many
publlcauons, lncludlng Lhe book Moblle
Aqeots (renuce Pall, 1998).
"$%
Antti-Jussi Tahvanainen, Ph.D.
Anm-!ussl 1ahvanalnen, h.u., has
been parL of Lhe playbook developmenL
Leam as a senlor researcher ln Lhe Lahu
School of lnnovauon aL LappeenranLa
unlverslLy of 1echnology ln llnland and
as a research scholar wlLh Lhe CenLer
for ueslgn 8esearch, amllaLed wlLh Lhe
loreslghL & lnnovauon lab, aL SLanford
unlverslLy. Pls area of experuse lles ln
Lechnology managemenL and pollcy.
Slnce 2002, 1ahvanalnen has worked
as a research economlsL aL Lhe 8esearch
lnsuLuLe of Lhe llnnlsh Lconomy (L1LA),
conducung sLudles on enLrepreneurshlp,
Lechnology Lransfer, nauonal lnnovauon
sysLems, and oLher Loplcs. ln 2009,
1ahvanalnen was closely lnvolved ln
Lhe lnLernauonal evaluauon of Lhe
llnnlsh lnnovauon sysLem (lnnoLval),
commlssloned by llnland's MlnlsLry of
LmploymenL and Lhe Lconomy.
1ahvanalnen has LaughL blo-
enLrepreneurshlp, Lechnology Lransfer,
and foreslghL aL Lhe unlverslLy of
Pelslnkl, AalLo unlverslLy, and Lhe
unlverslLy of 1ampere. Pe holds a
docLoraLe ln lndusLrlal englneerlng and
managemenL, speclallzlng ln sLraLegy
and lnLernauonal buslness, from AalLo
unlverslLy (llnland) and a M.Sc. ln
economlcs, Lechnology managemenL
and pollcy from Lhe Pelslnkl School of
Lconomlcs (llnland).
"$&

Vesa Harmaakorpi, D.Sc.
vesa Parmaakorpl, u.Sc. (1ech.), ls uean
of laculLy of 1echnology ManagemenL
and a rofessor of lnnovauon SysLems
ln Lhe Lahu School of lnnovauon aL Lhe
LappeenranLa unlverslLy of 1echnology
ln llnland. Pls research lnLeresLs are
lnnovauon sysLems and processes, as
well as lnnovauon envlronmenLs llnked Lo
reglonal developmenL. Parmaakorpl ls a
ploneer ln Lhe research and developmenL
of pracuce-based lnnovauon acuvlues ln
llnland. Pls publlcauon acuvlues have
been exLenslve, and he has also recelved
lnLernauonal awards for hls [ournal
arucles ln 2006 and 2008.
Tuija Oikarinen, D.Sc.
1ul[a Clkarlnen, u.Sc. (Lcon. & 8us.
Adm.), works as a senlor researcher ln
Lhe Lahu School of lnnovauon aL Lhe
LappeenranLa unlverslLy of 1echnology
ln llnland. Per research lnLeresL ls ln
organlzauonal renewal sLudled from Lhe
vlewpolnLs of organlzauonal learnlng,
pracuce-based lnnovauon, and human
resources managemenL. Per background
ls ln buslness llfe and enLrepreneurshlp.
About our research partners
Saku J. Mkinen, Ph.D.
Saku !. Maklnen, h.u., ls rofessor of
1echnology and lnnovauon ManagemenL
aL 1ampere unlverslLy of 1echnology
(1u1), llnland. Maklnen was formerly wlLh
Lhe ueparLmenL of Markeung, laculLy of
8uslness AdmlnlsLrauon, aL Lhe nauonal
unlverslLy of Slngapore. Pe recelved
an M.Sc. ln LlecLrlcal Lnglneerlng and a
h.u. ln 1echnology SLraLegy, boLh from
1u1, llnland. Pe has wldely publlshed ln
lnLernauonal forums llke 1ecbooloqlcol
lotecosuoq ooJ 5oclol cbooqe and l
1toosocuoos oo oqloeetloq Moooqemeot
ln Lhe areas of hls research lnLeresLs,
whlch lnclude Lechnology and lnnovauon
managemenL, sLraLegy, and Lechnology
and lndusLry co-evoluuon.

"$'

Pekka Berg, Ph.D.
ekka 8erg, holdlng a h.u. ln lnnovauon
managemenL, ls 8esearch ulrecLor of 8l1
(8uslness-lnnovauon-1echnology) 8esearch
CenLre of AalLo unlverslLy, as well as Lhe
founder and dlrecLor of Lhe lnnovauon
ManagemenL lnsuLuLe under 8l1.
8ergs research lnLeresLs cover Lhe
examlnauon of lnnovauve operauons
and maLurlLy meLhods aL Lhe followlng
levels: Lhe mechanlsms of Lhe nauonal
lnnovauon sysLems, nauonal research,
developmenL and Lechnology programs
and organlzauonal lnnovauon and 8&u
operauon. 1he meLhods developed by
8erg have been plloLed ln 13 nauonal
research and Lechnology programs, whlch
LoLaled 300 mllllon euros. lnformauon
abouL approxlmaLely 400 enLerprlses ln
llnland and abroad has been collecLed on
Lhe sub[ecL of lmprovlng Lhe lnnovauon
acuvlues of rms.
revlous research programs have
sLudled Lhe managemenL of lnLanglbles,
rapld lnnovauon pracuces, requlremenLs
for lnnovauve envlronmenLs, nauonal
lnnovauon sysLems, and nauonal 8&u/
Lechnology programs.
8erg also Leaches ln several courses
aL AalLo unlverslLy. Pls maln courses are
lnnovauon and ro[ecL ManagemenL
l8" and Collaborauve lnnovauon
ManagemenL CC-lnnC".
8eLween 2000 and 2006, 8erg was a
member of Lhe assessmenL group of Lhe
Lu nanced programme lmprovemenL
of Lhe CuallLy and Lecuveness of
Lducauon and Learnlng".

"$(

non-commercial use
1be lloybook fot 5ttoteqlc loteslqbt
ooJ looovouoo ls avallable for free
download Lo lndlvlduals, companles, and
organlzauons (boLh for-proL and non-
proL) for non-commerclal purposes only.
1he playbook ls proLecLed by Lhe Creauve
Commons Aurlbuuon-nonCommerclal-
ShareAllke 3.0 unporLed llcense (CC 8?-
nC-SA 3.0). ?ou are free Lo copy, dlsLrlbuLe
and LransmlL Lhe work, as well as adapL
Lhe work under cerLaln condluons.
Internal development
arues lnLeresLed ln applylng Lhe
meLhods for lnLernal developmenL,
unlverslLy Leachlng, or oLher purposes
may refer Lo an onllne lAC.
- www.|nnovanon.|o]p|aybook
- fores|ght.stanford.edu]p|aybook
- www.|ut.h]|nnovanon
Licensing terms
1he loreslgh lramework and all
relaLed meLhods are proprleLary Lools
of lnnovauon Leadershlp 8oard LLC
(lL8"). CLher Lhlrd parLy Lrademarks
referenced are Lhe properLy of Lhelr
respecuve owners. ?ou may noL use Lhe
lL8 Lrademarks, or any oLher relaLed lL8
meLhodology, ln connecuon wlLh web
slLes, producLs, packaglng, manuals,
promouonal/adveruslng maLerlals, or for
any oLher purpose excepL pursuanL Lo
an express wrluen llcenslng agreemenL
from lnnovauon Leadershlp 8oard LLC.
- ConLacL ||cens|ngQ|nnovanon.|o
for more lnformauon.
Terms of use
249

Foresight Thinking
Wende|| 8e|| (1996) loundonons of
Q'#'$"6 U#'3;"6L J'9/8 U(;"8(" 72$
/ C"1 V$/ FW2.'9" XG. 1ransacnon
ub||shers.
8ell ls an emlnenL soclal sclenusL
who accldenLly became a fuLurlsL. 1he
rsL of Lwo volumes, Lhls book oers
exLenslve dlscusslons of Lhe soclal
sclence [usucauons and hlsLory of pure
foreslghL Lools.
C|af ne|mer (1983) Y22);8< Q2$1/$3L
* I';3" #2 Q'#'$"6 @"6"/$(+- Sage
ub||canons.
Pelmer ls besL known for developlng
Lhe uelphl survey Lechnlque and cross-
lmpacL analysls from hls work aL 8Anu
Corporauon. ln Lhls book, he revlews
Lhe concepLs and meLhods of fuLures
research, provldlng an overvlew of Lhe
Lhe eld of fuLurlsm and foreslghL by one
of Lhe foundlng faLhers.
Iane Iacobs (1961) "1he k|nd of prob|em
a c|ty |s." from 1+" &"/#+ /83 Y;7" 27
6reot 4mericon cines. V|ntage 8ooks.
ln !acobs' semlnal urban sLudles
book, Lhe lasL chapLer acLs almosL as
an addendum LhaL auempLs Lo classlfy
Lhe klnd of problem a clLy ls". lollowlng
her references you wlll undersLand Lhe
foundauons of complex problem Lhlnklng
aL lLs nadlr.
Suggested readings
Phase I: Perspective
Gary name| and C. k. raha|ad (1994)
compennq for the luture. narvard
8us|ness Schoo| ress.
1hls ls sLraLegy 101" for Lhe long range.
1he auLhors make a compelllng and
lnLellecLual case abouL Lhe lmporLance
of lndusLry foreslghL. Powever, Lhe book
ls mlsslng clear recommendauons abouL
whaL Lo do before Lhe vlslon semng or
aer Lhe deslgn sLage.
eter Drucker (1998) "1he d|sc|p||ne of
|nnovanon." J/$=/$3 ?'6;8"66 @"=;"1-
November-December, pp. 3-8.
1hls arucle ls an P88 classlc. Pow much
of lnnovauon ls lnsplrauon, and how much
ls hard work? 1he answer lles somewhere
ln Lhe mlddle, says urucker. 1he arucle
was orlglnally adapLed from hls 1983
book looovouoo ooJ ottepteoeotsblp.
ltocuce ooJ ltloclples, whlch ouLllnes
several umeless recommendauons on
how Lo search for lnnovauon.
Over the years, we have used a wide
variety of books, journal pieces, news
articles, industry reports, multimedia,
and other materials with business
leaders and university students. Below
is a brief selection for further reading
and to complement your own efforts in
foresight and long-term innovation. This
list will evolve.
"%)
Phase II: Opportunity
Ne|| nowe and W||||am Strauss (2007)
"1he next 20 years: now customer and
workforce amtudes w||| evo|ve." J/$=/$3
?'6;8"66 @"=;"1- Iu|y-August, pp. 41-S2.
Powe and SLrauss are well-known
soclal demographers. 1he ldeas ln Lhls
arucle have powered a collecuon of
books LhaL Lhe Lwo have publlshed
over Lhe pasL Lwo decades. Soclal
and demographlc daLa are oen an
underuullzed source of foreslghL, and
Lhls arucle oers a compelllng vlew of
Amerlcan generauonal cycles and Lhe
lmpllcauons for buslness.
Phase III: Solution
koya| Dutch She|| (200S) E+" U+".. I.2:/.
U("8/$;26 #2 ZBZ[L E+" 7'#'$" :'6;8"66
environment: 1rends, trode-ogs ond
(+2;("6- She|| Internanona| L|m|ted (SIL).
ln 1971 ln Lurope, a Leam of planners
wlLhln 8oyal uuLch Shell began uslng a
new forecasung Lool called scenarlo
plannlng" as parL of Lhe company's
long-range plannlng process. lrench
fuLurlsL CasLon 8erger had descrlbed
Lhe Lool several years earller ln a lrench
forecasung [ournal. 1he Shell Leam began
uslng scenarlos as an lnLermedlary sLage
beLween forecasung and Lhe company's
long-range plannlng process, and Lhe rsL
reporL proved plvoLal Lo Shell's fuLure
ablllues Lo succeed durlng Lhe 1970s
CLC oll crlsls. 1he Shell 2023 reporL
bullds on lLs early scenarlo Lradluon.
Dan koam (2009) E+" ?/() 27 #+" C/5);8L
U2.=;8< !$2:."96 /83 U"..;8< X3"/6 1;#+
!;(#'$"6. oruo||o.
urawlng on LwenLy years of experlence
and Lhe laLesL dlscoverles ln vlslon sclence,
8oam Leaches readers how Lo clarlfy any
problem or sell any ldea uslng a slmple
seL of Lools. Pe shows LhaL even Lhe mosL
analyucal rlghL-bralners can work beuer
by Lhlnklng vlsually.

"%!
Phase IV: Team
1homas ke||ey and Ionathan L|uman
(200S) 1he 1en loces of lnnovonon:
luOs 5troteqies for uefeonnq the
uevi/s 4dvocote ond urivinq creonvity
1hrouqhout Your Orqonitonon.
Currency]Doub|eday.
1om kelley helped luLC grow from a
small producL deslgn shop Lo a renowned
lnnovauon rm. Wrluen wlLh !onaLhan
Lluman, kelly's second book dlscusses
Lhe Lype of worker and Lhe lmporLance
of Leam bulldlng, raLher Lhan Lhe work
envlronmenL, needed Lo bulld Lhe rlghL
culLure.
Phase V: Vision
8e|hore, M. (2009). E+" &"5/$#9"8#
of Mod 5ciennsts: now u4kP4 is
@"9/);8< \'$ 02$.3O Q$29 #+" X8#"$8"#
to 4rnfcio/ Limbs. Sm|thson|an 8ooks ]
narperCo|||ns.
8elore oers an enLerLalnlng and
lnformauve lnLroducuon Lo uA8A, lLs
culLure, and lnvenuons.
Ch|p neath and Dan neath (2007) R/3"
to 5nck: why 5ome ldeos 5urvive ond
\#+"$6 &;". kandom nouse.
Cood ldeas oen have a hard ume
succeedlng, and Lhe PeaLh broLhers
explaln how Lo communlcaLe ldeas
eecuvely so LhaL people llsLen and care.
"%"

Data sources: Emerging technologies
TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY
- hup:]]www.econom|st.com]
techno|ogy-quarter|y]
ubllshed quarLerly by Lhe edlLors of 1be
cooomlst, each speclal secuon covers
emerglng Lechnologles ln Lhe conLexL of
Lhe people, markeL uses, and poLenual
buslnesses LhaL may emerge. We llke Lhe
onllne archlve Lo nd older arucles, whlch
capLure Lhe zelLgelsL aL LhaL ume.

Technology Review
- www.techrev|ew.com
ubllshed by Lhe Massachuseus lnsuLuLe
of 1echnology (Ml1), 1ecbooloqy kevlew
clalms Lo be Lhe oldesL Lechnology
magazlne ln Lhe world (esL. 1899),
almlng Lo promoLe Lhe undersLandlng
of emerglng Lechnologles and Lo analyze
Lhelr commerclal, soclal, and pollucal
lmpacLs". 18 provldes an easy way Lo
follow new Lechnology developmenLs
on Lhe horlzon and ls a good source of
Lechnology-lnLo-producL narrauves. 1he
magazlne ls publlshed monLhly, and Lhere
are also llcensed edluons across Lhe
globe.
"%#

Data sources: Location & population
ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
- www.e|u.com
AmllaLed wlLh 1be cooomlst magazlne,
Llu provldes ongolng hlsLorlcal analysls
and forecasLs for over 200 counLrles
and 8 key lndusLrles, lncludlng medlum-
and long-Lerm economlc and buslness
forecasLs for 82 ma[or markeLs. 1he
reporLs are useful for Lhe even-handed
analysls, global ouLlook, and economlc
focus.

Eurostat
- hup:]]ec.europa.eu]eurostat
LsLabllshed ln 1933, LurosLaL ls Lhe
SLausucal Cmce of Lhe Luropean
unlon (Lu) member sLaLes and relaLed
communlues. lLs Lask ls Lo provlde Lhe
Lu wlLh comparable sLausucs aL Lhe
Luropean level for pollcy purposes.
LurosLaL provldes free access Lo all lLs
daLabases and elecLronlc publlcauons.

Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and
Development
- www.oecd.org
1he CLCu ls anoLher rellable source of
comparable sLausucs and economlc and
soclal daLa. As well as collecung daLa, CLCu
monlLors Lrends, analyses and forecasLs
economlc developmenLs and researches
soclal changes or evolvlng pauerns
ln Lrade, envlronmenL, agrlculLure,
Lechnology, Laxauon, and more across
100+ counLrles and economles. 1he
webslLe conLalns reporLs, publlcauons,
and sLausucs separaLed by counLry,
deparLmenL, and Loplc. 1he lnLernauonal
luLures rogramme was esLabllshed ln
1990 and analyzes long-Lerm concerns
Lo help governmenLs beuer plan fuLure
sLraLegles.
U.S. Census Bureau
International Data Base
- www.census.gov]popu|anon]
|nternanona|]data]|db
MalnLalned by Lhe u.S. Census 8ureau,
Lhe lnLernauonal uaLa 8ase conLalns pasL,
presenL, and fuLure demographlc daLa for
226 counLrles and areas of Lhe world. lL ls
a qulck source of sLandardlzed populauon
daLa. Cf speclal lnLeresL may be Lhe
opulauon yramlds LhaL summarlze
pasL populauon Lrends and oer fuLure
pro[ecuons by reglon.
"%$

Data sources: Future trends
Global Business Network
- www.gbn.com
lounded ln 1987 and parL of MonlLor slnce
2000, C8n are scenarlo consulLanLs. C8n
collaboraLes wlLh corporaLe, nonproL,
and governmenLal organlzauons
Lo explore emerglng uncerLalnues,
undersLand rlslng rlsks and opporLunlues,
and develop robusL, adapuve sLraLegles
for Lhe fuLure.

Institute for the Future
- www.|hf.org
lounded ln 1968, Lhe ll1l ls an
lndependenL nonproL research group.
1he group provldes ongolng forecasLs and
research reporLs on healLh and Lechnology
concerns Lo member lnsuLuuons.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Center for Technology &
Innovation
-www.pwc.com]us]en]
techno|ogy-|nnovanon-center
1he rlcewaLerhouseCoopers (wC)
CenLer for 1echnology and lnnovauon
(C1l) provldes leadlng-edge research
and analysls of Lechnology Lrends and
Lhelr eecLs on companles, lndusLrles,
and markeLs. C1l ls wldely known for lLs
Lechnology forecasL publlcauons and
brlengs on Lechnology Lrends.
"%%

Data sources: Finland
ETLA, THE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
OF THE FINNISH ECONOMY
- www.et|a.h
LsLabllshed ln 1946, L1LA ls Lhe leadlng
prlvaLe economlc research organlzauon
ln llnland. L1LA carrles ouL research on
economlcs, buslness and soclal pollcy as well
as makes economlc forecasLs. ubllcauons
may be ordered onllne for a fee.
Finnish Science and
Technology Information
Service
- www.research.h
1hls porLal conLalns key sLausucs and oLher
daLa on llnnlsh sclence and Lechnology.
1here are also llnks for more ln-depLh
lnformauon, lncludlng sLausucal and oLher
publlcauons, documenLs and daLabases,
LhaL are caLegorlzed lnLo four general
caLegorles: resources, performance,
research envlronmenLs, and vlewpolnLs.
National Board of Patents
and Registration of Finland
(NBPR)
- www.prh.h
8eyond paLenL searches, n88 ls a greaL
source for general company lnformauon,
such as balance sheeL lnformauon, annual
reporLs, hlsLorlcal daLa, and more.
Population Research
Institute
- www.vaesto|||uo.h]|n_eng||sh]
popu|anon_research_|nsntute]
1he opulauon 8esearch lnsuLuLe
carrles ouL research on llnnlsh couple
relauonshlps, famlly formauon, sexuallLy,
and lmmlgranLs' everyday llfe and
lnLegrauon lnLo Lhe llnnlsh socleLy. 1he
research produces lnformauon for Lhe use
of medla, adulL educauon, researchers,
and soclal and healLh care professlonals
as well as for vaesLllluo's advocacy work.
Statistics Finland
- www.stat.h]|ndex_en.htm|
SLausucs llnland ls Lhe nauonal sLausucal
lnsuLuuon ln llnland founded federal
auLhorlLy provldes lnformauon abouL
Lhe counLry's demographlcs, mass medla
usage, educauon, households, and oLher
Loplc areas. Many sLudles are free.

Tekes
- www.tekes.h
1ekes ls Lhe nauonal fundlng agency for
Lechnology and lnnovauon ln llnland. Lvery
year 1ekes publlshes dozens of reporLs and
revlews abouL Lhe laLesL developmenLs
ln research, Lechnology, and lnnovauon
ln llnland. 1ekes also malnLalns an lmage
bank for [ournallsLs and an exLenslve
presenLauon llbrary, whlch oers shorL
presenLauons abouL 1ekes acuvlues and
Lhe llnnlsh lnnovauon envlronmenL. All
1ekes publlcauons are free of charge.
"%&
www.lut.f/innovation
foresight.stanford.edu/playbook
www.innovation.io/playbook
v.1.7 / 09:04:13