AEI Special Poll Report: Taxes

(April 2014)
Karlyn Bowman and Jennifer Marsico
The major pollsters havent asked many questions about taxes or tax reform in the past year. Sadly, only a few have updated major trends. We have no new questions for example on what people think is the worst tax they pay. Nor do we have many new questions on the importance of tax reform. After a flurry of polling activity around the time the story broke about the IRS targeting specific groups for special scrutiny, there have been hardly any questions about the IRS. This report looks at some major trends on tax issues. For those interested in our longer historical AEI Public Opinion Study on taxes, see http://www.aei.org/files/2014/04/07/-public-opinion-on-taxes1937-to-today-an-aei-public-opinion-study_165428654476.pdf. Perhaps the pollsters lack of interest stems from the relatively low level of interest the public itself shows in taxes or tax reform. In January, four major pollsters asked people about priorities for the President and Congress. In none of these questions did taxes (described in different ways such as reforming the tax system or taxes) rank in the top five. In most of these polls, it ranked somewhere in the middle. In Pews question from January 2014, for example, 55 percent said tax reform should be a top priority for the president and Congress. As a top priority, the issue ranked ninth out of the twenty Pew examined. The top issue was the economy, cited by 80 percent. In January 2013, 52 percent ranked tax reform as a top priority. Does the lack of interest indicate that people are satisfied with the federal income taxes they pay? In one of the longest trends we have, people are more divided than in the past about whether their federal income taxes are too high or about right. In the past, most people said their federal income taxes were too high. We also include here a question Gallup updated in January this year about satisfaction with the federal income taxes most Americans pay. In another interesting trend, Gallup finds that the proportion believing that upper income people pay too little is still a solid majority (61 percent). But in 1992, when Gallup first asked the question, 77 percent gave that response. The number saying lower income people pay too little has risen from 2 percent to nearly 20 percent in the same period, with most of the increase coming after 2008. Polls on President Obamas handling of taxes are few and far between. We show in this document these questions and the overall approval questions asked at the same time. They generally move in tandem, but his marks on handling taxes are usually lower. Neither party has a clear advantage on handling taxes in the few recent polls that have asked the question. The bipartisan polling team of Lake Research and the Tarrance Group (working with George Washington University/Battleground poll) shows that the GOP has an advantage on holding the line on taxes, but not on taxes in general. We have a couple of new questions asking people how much of every tax dollar collected by Washington is wasted, and the latest mean response, from a September 2013 Reason-Rupe survey, is 60 cents. 1|Page

Do You Pay the Right Amount in Taxes?

Q: Do you consider the amount of federal income tax you have to pay as too high, about right, or too low? Too much 54% 63 57 43 57 52 71 59 55 61 51 46 48 63 52 56 52 58 69 65 58 65 68 69 60 63 60 63 59 55 56 59 63 55 55 56 55 55 63 56 66 65 About right 40% 32 38 53 40 43 26 37 35 31 40 45 45 32 38 35 39 38 25 28 33 28 27 26 32 33 32 32 35 39 37 37 31 39 37 39 41 41 33 42 30 31 Too low 0% 0 1 1 0 1 * * 1 * 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 * 1 1 1 * * * 1 * 1 1 1 1 * 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 * 1 1

Mar. 1947* Nov. 1947* Mar. 1948* Mar. 1949* Feb. 1950* Feb. 1951* Feb. 1952* Feb. 1953* Feb. 1956 Apr. 1957 Mar. 1959 Feb. 1961 Feb. 1962 Jun. 1962 Jan. 1963 Feb. 1964 Feb. 1966 Mar. 1967 Mar. 1969 Feb. 1973 Feb. 1976 Feb. 1977 Feb. 1980 Feb. 1982 May 1982 Feb. 1984 Feb. 1985 Jun. 1985 Feb. 1987 Feb. 1988 Feb. 1989 Feb. 1990 Mar. 1990 Feb. 1991 Mar. 1991 Mar. 1992 Feb.-Apr. 1993 Mar. 1993 Jan.-May. 1994 Apr. 1994 Dec. 1994 Feb.-May 1996

Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup NORC NORC NORC NORC Gallup NORC NORC Gallup NORC NORC NORC NORC Gallup NORC Gallup Gallup NORC Gallup NORC Gallup Gallup NORC

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Apr. 1996 Mar. 1997 Feb.-Jun. 1998 Apr. 1998 Apr. 1999 Jul. 1999 Sep. 1999 Feb.-Jun. 2000 Apr. 2000 Apr. 2001 Feb.-Jun. 2002 Jan. 2003 Feb.-Mar. 2003 Apr. 2003 Apr. 2004 2004 Apr. 2005 Oct. 2005 Apr. 2006 Apr. 2007 Apr. 2008 Apr. 2008 Apr. 2009 Apr. 2010 2010 Apr. 2011 Apr. 2012 Apr. 2012 2012 Apr. 2013

Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today NORC Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today NORC Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today NORC Gallup/CNN/USA Today Kaiser/NPR/Harvard Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today NORC Gallup/CNN/USA Today The Hotline/Diageo Gallup Gallup Gallup NORC Gallup Gallup NORC Gallup Gallup CNN/ORC NORC Gallup

64% 58 63 66 65% 60 68 64 63 65 59 47 51 50 50 61 51 43 48 53 52 55 46 48 51 50 46 45 50 50

33% 38 31 31 29% 37 28 31 33 31 37 50 43 46 43 38 44 48 44 41 42 41 48 45 47 43 47 50 48 45

1% 1 1 1 2% * 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 4 3 3 2 2

Note: In April 2003, the Associated Press asked, How do you feel about the income taxes you currently pay? Do you think your taxes are too high, too low, or about right? Fifty -one percent said too high, 43 percent said about right, and 1 percent said too low. In December 2002, TIPP/Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor asked, Now moving on to the topic of taxes. When it comes to your federal income tax, do you think that the amount you currently pay is too little, too much, or just about right? Fo rty-nine percent said too much, 44 percent said just about right, and 4 percent said too little. In a CBS News poll from January 2014, 42 percent said they paid more than their fair share in federal income taxes, 50 percent the amount they paid was about right, and 3 percent said they paid less than their fair share. Note: *From 1947 to 1953, the question was asked of taxpayers.

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Q: Do you feel you pay more than your fair share in federal income taxes, less than your fair share, or is the amount you pay about right? 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 More than fair share Less than fair share About right

Don't file

Apr. 1997 Apr. 2006 Apr. 2007 Mar.-Apr. 2010 Feb. 2011 Mar. 2011 Jan. 2012 Apr. 2012 May 2012 Mar. 2013 Jan. 2014

CBS CBS CBS CBS CBS CBS CBS CBS/NYT CBS/NYT CBS CBS

More than fair share 49% 34 37 43 30 41 40 36 34 34 42

Less than fair share 2% 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 3 2 3

About right 47% 58 55 50 62 51 52 58 59 60 50

Dont file 1% 4 5 4 3 4 _ --2 --

Income Level and Fair Taxation

Q: As I read off some different groups, please tell me if you think they are paying their fair share in federal taxes, paying too much, or paying too little Upper-income people Too much 4% 5 10 Fair share 16% 16 20 Too little 77% 75 68

Mar. 1992 Mar. 1993 Apr. 1994

Gallup Gallup Gallup/CNN/USA Today

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Apr. 1996 Apr. 1999 Apr. 2003 Apr. 2004 Apr. 2005 Apr. 2006 Apr. 2007 Apr. 2008 Apr. 2009 Apr. 2010 Apr. 2011 Apr. 2012 Apr. 2013

Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/USA Today Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup

9 10 10 9 7 8 9 9 13 15 13 10 11

20 19 24 24 22 21 21 24 23 26 25 25 26

68 66 63 63 68 67 66 63 60 55 59 62 61

Middle-income people Too much 57% 54 57 58 59 40 46 41 43 47 43 43 43 44 36 42 Fair share 36% 39 39 34 35 51 47 52 50 44 50 50 49 50 56 53 Too little 5% 5 3 5 4 7 4 4 5 7 4 5 6 5 6 3

Mar. 1992 Mar. 1993 Apr. 1994 Apr. 1996 Apr. 1999 Apr. 2003 Apr. 2004 Apr. 2005 Apr. 2006 Apr. 2007 Apr. 2008 Apr. 2009 Apr. 2010 Apr. 2011 Apr. 2012 Apr. 2013

Gallup Gallup Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/USA Today Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup

Lower-income people Too much 57% 51 42 48 51 49 49 51 46 45 51 39 Fair share 32% 37 43 40 34 36 35 36 36 34 32 41 Too little 8% 9 13 9 11 12 12 10 12 17 13 16

Mar. 1992 Mar. 1993 Apr. 1994 Apr. 1996 Apr. 1999 Apr. 2003 Apr. 2004 Apr. 2005 Apr. 2006 Apr. 2007 Apr. 2008 Apr. 2009

Gallup Gallup Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gallup/USA Today Gallup Gallup Gallup

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Apr. 2010 Apr. 2011 Apr. 2012 Apr. 2013

Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup

39 40 40 40

35 37 33 37

22 21 24 19

President Obama: Handling Taxes, Handling His Job as President

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling taxes? Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Gallup/USA Today ----Handling taxes---Approve Disapprove 45% 48% 41 54 38 57 42 54 45 51 41 57 41 57 36 58 ----Handling his job as President---Approve Disapprove 55% 41% 45 48 45 47 48 43 50 46 51 47 47 47 44 50

Jul. 2009 Aug. 2010 Nov. 2010 Feb. 2011 Feb. 2012 Feb. 2013 Jun. 2013 Aug. 2013

Note: Only polls in which presidential approval AND presidential approval on taxes are shown here.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling taxes? Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? CNN/ORC ----Handling taxes-------Handling his job as president---Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove 62% 37% 64% 34% 45 52 53 45 52 43 58 40 49 50 54 45 44 53 51 48 43 53 48 50 46 52 55 44 46 53 54 45 50 47 55 43 46 52 51 47

Mar. 2009 Aug. 2009 Sep. 2009 Oct.-Nov. 2009 Jan. 2010 Nov. 2010 Jan. 2011 May 2011 Jan. 2013* Apr. 2013

Note: Note: Only polls in which presidential approval AND presidential approval on taxes are shown here. *Asked of half sample.

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Taxes and the Political Parties

Q: Which political party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you trust to do a better job handling taxes? ABC News/Washington Post Trust Democrats to do a better job handling taxes 37% 35 40 41 35 36 37 45 41 45 42 47 43 40 38 44% 46 48 52 46 48 41 39 40 42

Jan. 1990** Mar. 1991** Dec. 1991** Feb. 1992** Feb. 1994** Sep. 1994** Oct. 1994** Oct. 1995* Jul. 1997** Jan. 1998** Jul. 1998** Sep. 1998** Mar. 1999** Sep. 1999* Apr. 2001* Sep. 2002 Dec. 2002 Nov. 2005 May 2006 Nov. 2007 Feb. 2008 Mar. 2010 Sep. 2010 Oct. 2010 Mar. 2014

Trust Republicans 47% 44 38 45 41 47 42 40 38 44 39 44 41 49 52 44% 44 38 38 40 40 39 45 43 41

Note: *In the October 1995, September 1999, and April 2001 askings, the question asked about cutting taxes. In all other askings prior to 2001, the questions asked about holding taxes down.

GW Battleground Poll (Tarrance/Lake)Democrats, Republicans, and Taxes Note: See question wording at the end of this table Dem. Apr. 1993 Jun. 1993 Aug. 1994 30% 24 27 Rep. 52% 50 48 +22 R +26 R +21 R More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party... holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party... holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party... holding the line on taxes

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Apr. 1995 Jan. 1996 Dec. 1997 Aug. 1998 Aug. 1998 Jun. 1999 Jan. 2000 May 2000 Apr. 2001 Jan. 2002 Jun. 2002 Sep. 2003 Mar. 2004 Jun. 2004 Mar. 2005 Oct. 2005 Feb. 2006 Sept. 2006 Jan. 2007 Jul. 2007 Jul. 2009 Dec. 2009 Apr. 2010 Sep. 2010 Feb. 2012 Apr. 2012 Aug. 2012 Oct. 2013 Mar. 2014

26 32 31 29 32 30 34 33 36 28 29 34 40 38 36 40 36 41 44 44 29 28 28 26 49 46 44 40 44

47 46 44 52 46 51 50 48 45 57 54 53 52 53 49 49 52 49 47 46 53 55 56 53 45 47 48 49 47

+21 R +14 R +13 R +23 R +14 R +21 R +16 R +15 R +9 R +29 R +25 R +19 R +12 R +15 R +13 R +9 R +16 R +8 R +3 R +2 R +24 R +27 R +28 R +27 R +4 D +1 R +4 R +9 R +3 R

More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party... holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party... holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. in Congress...cutting taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party... holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party... holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party... holding the line on taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party... holding the line on taxes Would do a better job...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes Would do a better job...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes Would do a better job...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes Would do a better job...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes Would do a better job...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes Would do a better job...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding the line on taxes Would do a better job...Dem./Rep. Party...handling this issue...taxes Would do a better job...Dem./Rep. Party...handling this issue...taxes Will better handle...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding down taxes Will better handle...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding down taxes Will better handle...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding down taxes Will better handle...Dem./Rep. in Congress...holding down taxes Will better handle...Dem./Rep. Party...taxes Will better handle...Dem./Rep. in Congress...taxes Will better handle...Dem./Rep. in Congress...taxes Will better handle...Dem./Rep. in Congress...taxes More confidence in...Dem./Rep. Party...deal with this issue...taxes

Source: Battleground Poll (conducted by the partisan team of Lake Research Partners (D) and the Tarrance Group (R) with George Washington University). Full Question Wording April 1993-January 1996; April 2001-September 2003 Q: I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important for government to deal with. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, whether you have more confidence in the Democratic Party or the Republican Party to deal with this issueHolding the line on taxes.

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December 1997-August 1998; June 1999-May 2000 Q: I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important for government to deal with. Please tell me, for each one, whether you have more confidence in--the Democrats in Congress or the Republicans in Congress -- to deal with this issue...Holding the line on taxes? August 1998 Q: I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important for government to deal with. Please tell me, for each one, whether you have more confidence in--the Democrats in Congress or the Republicans in Congress--to deal with this issue...Cutting taxes. March 2004-September 2006 Q: Now thinking about the United States Congress...Now, I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important for the United States Congress to deal with. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue--the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress...Holding the line on taxes? January 2007-June 2007 Q: I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important to them. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, which political party would do a better job of handling this issue--the Republican Party or the Democratic Party...Taxes. July 2009-September 2010 Q: Now, I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important for the Congress to deal with. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue--Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress...Holding down taxes? February 2012 Q: Now, I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue--the Republican Party or the Democratic Party...Taxes. April 2012-October 2013 Q: Now, I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue--The Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress...Taxes. March 2014 Q: I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, whether you have more confidence in the Republican Party or Democratic Party to deal with this issue...taxes?

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Taxes as a Top Priority

Q: I'd like to ask you about priorities for President _________ and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think each should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important or should it not be done. Should ___________ be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important, or should it not be done? Pew Research Center Reducing federal income taxes for the middle class Important but low priority 33% 33 30 34 26 37 37 35 32 35 40 39 40 Not too important 8% 8 8 7 4 11 12 8 8 10 8 10 9 Should not be done 3% 3 4 3 3 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 5

Jan. 1998 Jan. 1999 Jul. 1999 Jan. 2000 Jan. 2001 Jan. 2002 Jan. 2004 Jan. 2005 Jan. 2006 Jan. 2007 Jan. 2008 Jan. 2009 Jan. 2010

Top priority 54% 52 57 54 66 43 44 48 51 48 46 43 42

Changing the federal income tax system to make it simpler Important but low priority 37% Not too important 17% Should not be done 5%

Jan. 2011

Top priority 37%

Changing the federal income tax system to make it more fair Important but low priority 29% Not too important 5% Should not be done 2%

Jan. 2012

Top priority 61%

Reforming the nations tax system Important but low priority 32% 33 Not too important 7% 6 Should not be done 3% 2

Jan. 2013 Jan. 2014

Top priority 52% 55

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Satisfaction with the Amount Americans Pay in Taxes

Q: Next, wed like to know how you feel about the state of the nation in each of the following areas. For each one, please say whether you arevery satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied. If you dont have enough information about a particular subject to rate it, just say so. How about the amount Americans pay in federal taxes? The Gallup Organization Very/Somewhat satisfied 26% 38 33 34 38 38 40 34 33 36 38 Somewhat/Very dissatisfied 71% 60 63 64 60 61 57 62 61 60 60

Jan. 2001 Jan. 2002 Jan. 2003 Jan. 2004 Jan. 2005 Jan. 2006 Jan. 2007 Jan. 2008 Jan. 2012 Jan. 2013 Jan. 2014

Taxes and Government Waste

Q: Out of every dollar the federal government collects in taxes, how many cents do you think are wasted? Of every dollar, how ----many cents are wasted?---Mean Median -40 -48 -40 -45 -50 46 50 50 50 51 50 43 46 44 48 49 46 47 45 50 50 50 41 39 40

Nov. 1979 Jan. 1981 Mar. 1981 May 1984 Feb. 1989 Sep. 2001 Aug.-Sep. 2009 Sep. 2011 Jul. 1985 May 1990 Sep. 1990 Sep. 1990 Oct. 1991 Feb. 1993 Aug. 1993

Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup Gallup ABC/Wash Post ABC/Wash Post ABC Wash Post ABC/Wash Post ABC/Wash Post ABC/Wash Post

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Jan. 1995 Jan. 1998 Apr. 2000 Apr. 2002 Apr. 2006 Feb. 2010 Nov. 1996 Mar. 2012 Jan. 2013 Sep. 2013

ABC/Wash Post ABC ABC ABC ABC/Wash Post ABC/Wash Post Tarrance(R)/Lake(D) Reason-Rupe Reason-Rupe Reason-Rupe

51 56 46 47 51 53 49 56 47 60

50 ----------

Note: The Mar. 2012 Reason-Rupe poll wording was For every dollar you pay in federal taxes, about how much of it do you think the government wastes? The Jan. 2013 Reason-Rupe poll wording was For every dollar you pay in federal taxes, about how many cents do you think are wasted by the government?

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