JSPL - SALES FORECASTING 2014

Sales Forecasting is the process of estimating what your

businesss sales are going to be in the future.
Sales forecasting is an integral part of business management.
Without a solid idea of what your future sales are going to be,
you cant manage your inventory or your cash flow or plan for
growth. The purpose of sales forecasting is to provide
information that you can use to make intelligent business
decisions.

Different Terms of Sale Forecast:

Short Term Forecast: 1. for period upto 3 months ahead.

2. For Tactical manner.
Medium Term Forecast: 1.For 1 year ahead.
2. Most important in the area of
budgeting.
Long Term Forecast: 1. for a period of 3 years and upward.
2. Needed mainly by financial accountants, for
long term resource implications.

Sales Forecasting Techniques:

Qualitative Technique
Qualitative forecasting techniques are subjective, based
on the opinion and judgment of consumers, experts; they
are appropriate when past data are not available. They
are usually applied to intermediate- or long-range
decisions.
Examples of qualitative forecasting methods are
informed opinion and judgment, the Delphi method,
market research, and historical life-cycle analogy.
Quantitative Technique
Quantitative forecasting models are used to forecast
future data as a function of past data; they are appropriate
when past data are available. These methods are usually
applied to short- or intermediate-range decisions.
Examples of quantitative forecasting methods are last
period demand, simple and weighted N-Period moving
averages, simple exponential smoothing, and
multiplicative seasonal indexes.

SALES FORECASTING FOR YEAR 2014

Fiscal Period

March 2014
(in Million INR)

Sales

213 196

Operating income (EBITDA)

64 300

Operating profit (EBIT)

47 580

Pre-Tax Profit (EBT)

36 225

Net income

27 052

EPS ( INR)

30,2

Dividend per Share ( INR)

1,80

Yield

0.69%

PRO FORMA FINANCIAL

STATEMENTS 2014

PRO FORMA IS.xlsx

SOURCES OF FINANCING USED

Total Share Capital

93.48

Equity Share Capital

93.48

Reserves

12,254.59

Net worth

12,348.07

Secured Loans

11,577.42

Unsecured Loans

7,923.52

Total Debt

19,500.94

Total Liabilities

31,849.01

SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT

(Historical Price Data for JSPL for the last 1 month)

Date
13-Dec-13
12-Dec-13
11-Dec-13
10-Dec-13
09-Dec-13
06-Dec-13
05-Dec-13
04-Dec-13
03-Dec-13
02-Dec-13
29-Nov-13
28-Nov-13
27-Nov-13
26-Nov-13
25-Nov-13
22-Nov-13
21-Nov-13
20-Nov-13
19-Nov-13
18-Nov-13
14-Nov-13

Open High

Low

LTP

261
264.55
268.65
268
289.5
284
283.4
274.95
269.85
258.45
255.5
251.55
248.6
251.8
248.15
245.1
251.1
255.5
245.1
241.1
238.6

255.5
261.25
263.45
260.2
264.6
282.1
280.5
274
269.55
256.75
253.7
250.55
248.3
249.25
248.15
245.1
245
251.05
245.1
239.7
237

261
262.65
267.15
266.2
266
282.85
282.05
279.85
275
270.75
257.5
253.65
251
249.4
251.8
249.6
246.65
252.5
254.75
246.2
238.75

262
269.4
273.35
268.5
290
286
286.7
282.9
283.65
270.9
259.1
257.6
251.6
253.35
254.6
250.9
254.6
260.15
257.95
246.4
241.8

Close
259.8
262.35
267
266.55
265.8
283.5
282.05
278.7
275.35
268.4
258.15
254.7
250.75
250.1
251.5
248.65
245.8
252.45
255.3
244.95
238.65

Volume
22,84,543
24,45,252
29,83,846
26,84,482
50,72,815
20,53,291
46,39,225
59,64,784
83,08,097
68,06,928
19,35,518
40,82,939
10,11,772
16,44,242
21,86,979
14,93,228
23,66,906
41,96,127
49,61,892
22,84,477
20,73,404

Turnover (in
Lakhs)
5,907.80
6,483.88
8,031.80
7,101.92
13,786.59
5,836.21
13,150.23
16,659.22
23,129.52
18,073.11
4,984.74
10,357.62
2,530.26
4,134.96
5,496.02
3,705.94
5,898.89
10,759.29
12,501.33
5,557.00
4,957.22

LEVERAGES:
1. DOL= Change in EBIT/EBIT/Change in
Sales/Sales
2013
2012
EBIT
4097.73
4246.97
-0.036
Sales
14954.70 13333.95 0.108
=-0.036/0.108
=-.0333
2.DFL= EBIT /EBT

EBIT
EBT

2013
4097.73
2,228.50

=4097.73/2228.50
=1.83