CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION

2. METHODS OF RELIABILITY ASSESMENT

3. POINT ESTIMATE METHOD-OVERVIEW

4. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

REFERENCES
 INTRODUCTION

The evaluation of the safety of structures is a task of much importance. It has been one of the
of interest for engineers. The safety of a Structure depends on the resistance, R of structure
and the action, S (load) on the Structure. The performance of a structure is assessed by its
safety, serviceability and economy. The information about input variables is never certain,
precise and complete. The sources of uncertainties may be:

a. Physical Uncertainty: This group consists of uncertainties in material parameters such as

modulus or concrete and steel, stability of concrete and steel in different condition such as
tension and flexure.

B. Statistical uncertainty: This group consists of uncertainties in loads. Under static loading
conditions, one is concerned with dead and live load and there are usually some uncertainties
in relation to live loads. Structures may also be subjected to dynamic loads from earthquakes
wind and waves. Significant uncertainties are associated with such random loads.

C. Model uncertainty: This group consists of uncertainties in mathematical modelling and

methods of analysis. Each method of analysis or design is based on simplifying assumption
and arbitrary factors of safety are often used.

d. Gross errors

The presence of uncertainties, the absolute safety of the structure is impossible.

A. The unpredictability of

1. Loads on structure during its life.

2. In- place material strength.

3. Human errors.

B. structural idealization in forming the mathematical model of the structure to predict its
response or behaviour
 C. limitations in numerical methods.

Therefore, some risk of unacceptable performance must be tolerated. With respect to risk of
life, the structural safety is important. The safety factors provided in the existing codes and
standards primarily based on practice, judgement and experience may not be adequate and
economical.

Definition:-

One of the most Common definitions for reliability accepted by all is that
“Reliability is the probability of an item performing its intended function over a given
period of time under the Operating conditions encountered”.

It is important to note that the above definition stresses four significant elements viz.,

i. Probability: Due to uncertainties, the reliability is a probability.

ii. Intended function: Intended function signifies that the reliability is a performance
characteristic. For a structure to be reliable, it must perform a certain function
satisfactorily for which it has been designed i.e., safety against shear or flexure or
torsion etc.

iii. Time: The reliability is always related to the lifetime of the structure. During the
specified life of the structure. it must perform the assigned function satisfactorily.

iv. Operation conditions: The operating conditions indicate the actions Or stresses that
will be imposed on the structure. These may be loads, temperature, shock, vibrations.

Methods of assessment of reliability

Reliability assessment involves the computation of a numerical reliability measure for a given
condition with design quantities described in probability.
First order second moment method (FOSM)

In this method, the random variables are characterised by their first and second moments. In
evaluating the first and second moments of the failure function, the first order approximation
is used. Hence this method is called as FOSM.

The FOSM is derived from Taylors formula for the expansion of a function f(x) about a point
x=𝑥

F(x)=f(𝑥)+f’(𝑥)(x-𝑥)+𝑓 (x)/2! (𝑥 − 𝑥)2 ……..+Rn

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TECHNIQUE

For problems involving random variables with known probability distributions. Monte carlo
simulation is required. This involves repeating a simulation process, using in each simulation
a particular set of values of the random variables generated in accordance with the
corresponding probability distributions. A sample from Monte Carlo simulation is similar to a
sample of experimental observations. Therefore the results may be treated statically and such
results may also be presented in the form of histograms, and methods of statistical estimation
and inference are also applicable. One of the main tasks of this method is the generation of
random numbers, the simulation process is deterministic. But in practise, this method may be
limited by constraints of economy and computer capability. Therefore, it may be used only as
the last resort, when and if analytical solutions are not possible. To produce a reasonably
accurate estimate of the failure probability at least 100/pf trials are required.
Reliability analysis of shear strength of a RCC beam by point estimate
method

Strength formulation is given by:-

g(x) = 𝝁𝝉𝑺 𝝁𝑻𝑾 𝝁𝑫 − 𝝁𝑺 /𝟐

Given:-
𝜇𝜏 𝑆 =95 N/mm2 𝜎𝜏 𝑆 =10 N/mm2
𝜇 𝑇𝑊 =1.25mm 𝜎𝑇𝑊 =.0625mm
𝜇𝐷 =50 mm 𝜎𝐷 =2.5mm
𝜇𝑆 =4000 N 𝜎𝑆 =1000 N

Upper and Lower bound values are calculated as:-

𝜇𝜏 𝑆 𝜎𝜏 𝑆 𝜇+𝜏𝑆 𝜇−𝜏𝑆
95 10 105 85

𝜇 𝑇𝑊 𝜎𝑇𝑊 𝜇 + 𝑇𝑊 𝜇 − 𝑇𝑊
1.25 .0625 1.3125 1.1825

𝜇𝐷 𝜎𝐷 𝜇 +𝐷 𝜇 −𝐷
50 2.5 52.5 47.5

𝜇𝑆 𝜎𝑆 𝜇 +𝑆 𝜇 −𝑆
4000 1000 5000 3000

=8 variables, where n=3 for resistance equation

=2 variables, where n=2 for load equation

Iterations:-

=7235.6

=6546 = 1500

=5922.65 AVERAGE=2000(x2)

=6546.1
 =5857.1

=5299

=5299

=4794.53

AVERAGE=5937.5(x1)

g(x) = 5935.7-2000=3935.7

= 1217.66
= 608

= 14.85

= 60.86

= 80.4

= 638.3

= 638.3
= 1143.3

= 3763.4

=500
=500

= 1000

=806.4 , n=8

= 267.26, n=2

3935.7 / 539.14 = 7.31

Conclusions

 THE RELIABILITY INDEX OBTAINED IS 7.31,

WHICH IS SAFE.

 POINT ESTIMATE METHOD IS EASIEST METHOD,

WHICH INVOLVES SIMPLE MATHE MATICAL

CALCULATIONS.

 DESIGNS MADE UNDER THE CODE AND OTHER

STANDARD PROVISIONS ARE UNECONOMICAL

RATHER MORE SAFE.

Reference

1. MILTON E HARR, RELIABILITY – BASED DESIGN

IN CIVIL ENGINEERING, MCGRAW-HILL BOOK

COMPANY, INC, NEW YORK, 1987.

2. RANGANATHAN R, STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY

ANALYSIS AND DESIGN, JAICO PUBLISHING

HOUSE, 1999.