Rick

Obs.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Period
Revenues
2Q-2000
2,571,000,000
3Q-2000
2,622,000,000
4Q-2000
2,429,000,000
1Q-2001
2,451,000,000
2Q-2001
2,556,000,000
3Q-2001
2,223,000,000
4Q-2001
1,739,000,000
1Q-2002
1,993,000,000
2Q-2002
2,192,000,000
3Q-2002
2,178,000,000
4Q-2002
2,039,000,000
1Q-2003
2,042,000,000
2Q-2003
2,216,000,000
3Q-2003
2,365,000,000
4Q-2003
2,247,000,000
1Q-2004
2,307,000,000
2Q-2004
2,553,000,000
3Q-2004
2,602,000,000
4Q-2004
2,437,000,000
1Q-2005
2,505,000,000
2Q-2005
2,857,000,000
3Q-2005
3,001,000,000
4Q-2005
2,845,000,000
1Q-2006
2,947,000,000
2Q-2006
3,507,000,000
3Q-2006
3,518,000,000
4Q-2006
3,156,000,000
1Q-2007
3,179,000,000
2Q-2007
3,710,000,000
3Q-2007
3,820,000,000
4Q-2007
3,523,000,000
1Q-2008
3,570,000,000
2Q-2008
4,044,000,000
3Q-2008
4,072,000,000
4Q-2008
3,471,000,000
15,157,000,000

Rick

Xavier

Fuel
Salaries and Wages Capacity Purchases
313,000,000
719,000,000
354,000,000
748,000,000
392,000,000
736,000,000
345,000,000
758,000,000
349,000,000
800,000,000
322,000,000
779,000,000
213,000,000
684,000,000
208,000,000
732,000,000
254,000,000
746,000,000
276,000,000
743,000,000
285,000,000
738,000,000
347,000,000
778,000,000
302,000,000
762,000,000
316,000,000
778,000,000
290,000,000
738,000,000
158,000,000
333,000,000
688,000,000
317,000,000
387,000,000
711,000,000
328,000,000
414,000,000
703,000,000
347,000,000
453,000,000
717,000,000
359,000,000
470,000,000
715,000,000
353,000,000
575,000,000
649,000,000
382,000,000
684,000,000
646,000,000
406,000,000
714,000,000
639,000,000
431,000,000
672,000,000
661,000,000
415,000,000
744,000,000
791,000,000
454,000,000
858,000,000
743,000,000
475,000,000
760,000,000
680,000,000
447,000,000
684,000,000
726,000,000
430,000,000
842,000,000
821,000,000
444,000,000
895,000,000
836,000,000
446,000,000
933,000,000
744,000,000
473,000,000
1,048,000,000
729,000,000
506,000,000
1,363,000,000
704,000,000
589,000,000
1,501,000,000
765,000,000
553,000,000
993,000,000
760,000,000
425,000,000
4,905,000,000
2,958,000,000
2,073,000,000

Rick

Xavier

Aircraft Rentals Landing Fees Distribution Costs Aircraft Maintenance

Depreciation
210,000,000 138,000,000
261,000,000
171,000,000
98,000,000
215,000,000 133,000,000
255,000,000
167,000,000 102,000,000
213,000,000 132,000,000
217,000,000
149,000,000 107,000,000
214,000,000 141,000,000
243,000,000
160,000,000 105,000,000
223,000,000 153,000,000
230,000,000
162,000,000 111,000,000
230,000,000 139,000,000
194,000,000
142,000,000 120,000,000
236,000,000 148,000,000
142,000,000
104,000,000 131,000,000
228,000,000 161,000,000
172,000,000
114,000,000 106,000,000
231,000,000 160,000,000
158,000,000
119,000,000 112,000,000
227,000,000 163,000,000
138,000,000
119,000,000 112,000,000
216,000,000 149,000,000
124,000,000
124,000,000 114,000,000
223,000,000 152,000,000
127,000,000
133,000,000 116,000,000
224,000,000 152,000,000
138,000,000
126,000,000 110,000,000
225,000,000 165,000,000
131,000,000
135,000,000 110,000,000
224,000,000 151,000,000
135,000,000
115,000,000 108,000,000
220,000,000 160,000,000
137,000,000
112,000,000 104,000,000
222,000,000 163,000,000
140,000,000
102,000,000 105,000,000
224,000,000 171,000,000
139,000,000
107,000,000 104,000,000
225,000,000 160,000,000
136,000,000
93,000,000 102,000,000
227,000,000 171,000,000
138,000,000
112,000,000
99,000,000
229,000,000 181,000,000
154,000,000
106,000,000
98,000,000
234,000,000 182,000,000
154,000,000
116,000,000
97,000,000
238,000,000 174,000,000
142,000,000
121,000,000
95,000,000
245,000,000 185,000,000
160,000,000
127,000,000
96,000,000
248,000,000 198,000,000
178,000,000
140,000,000
97,000,000
249,000,000 195,000,000
157,000,000
140,000,000
99,000,000
248,000,000 186,000,000
155,000,000
140,000,000
99,000,000
248,000,000 193,000,000
161,000,000
144,000,000
99,000,000
248,000,000 190,000,000
176,000,000
169,000,000 101,000,000
249,000,000 209,000,000
171,000,000
166,000,000 106,000,000
249,000,000 198,000,000
174,000,000
142,000,000 107,000,000
247,000,000 207,000,000
182,000,000
159,000,000 106,000,000
246,000,000 210,000,000
194,000,000
167,000,000 108,000,000
244,000,000 225,000,000
182,000,000
152,000,000 112,000,000
240,000,000 210,000,000
159,000,000
135,000,000 111,000,000
977,000,000 852,000,000
717,000,000
613,000,000 437,000,000

Sean

Sean
Passenger Services
Other Expenses
91,000,000
284,000,000
97,000,000
288,000,000
89,000,000
277,000,000
91,000,000
318,000,000
96,000,000
295,000,000
89,000,000
121,000,000
71,000,000
166,000,000
77,000,000
382,000,000
73,000,000
454,000,000
78,000,000
276,000,000
68,000,000
277,000,000
70,000,000
320,000,000
73,000,000
91,000,000
81,000,000
250,000,000
73,000,000
455,000,000
69,000,000
304,000,000
76,000,000
279,000,000
84,000,000
287,000,000
77,000,000
278,000,000
77,000,000
316,000,000
84,000,000
280,000,000
91,000,000
282,000,000
80,000,000
305,000,000
82,000,000
293,000,000
90,000,000
323,000,000
97,000,000
313,000,000
87,000,000
333,000,000
90,000,000
340,000,000
99,000,000
357,000,000
105,000,000
357,000,000
95,000,000
328,000,000
96,000,000
356,000,000
107,000,000
427,000,000
113,000,000
461,000,000
91,000,000
372,000,000
407,000,000
1,616,000,000

Obs.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Period
Total Aircraft
2Q-2000
3Q-2000
4Q-2000
1Q-2001
2Q-2001
3Q-2001
4Q-2001
1Q-2002
2Q-2002
3Q-2002
4Q-2002
1Q-2003
2Q-2003
3Q-2003
4Q-2003
1Q-2004
2Q-2004
3Q-2004
4Q-2004
1Q-2005
2Q-2005
3Q-2005
4Q-2005
1Q-2006
2Q-2006
3Q-2006
4Q-2006
1Q-2007
2Q-2007
3Q-2007
4Q-2007
1Q-2008
2Q-2008
3Q-2008
4Q-2008

522
535
522
548
557
501
522
538
570
570
554
562
570
570
579
586
587
592
594
598
604
611
622
630
634
648
648
630
625
631
628
641
630
653
632

Leased Aircraft Flights

410
97,871
414
97,967
398
98,378
406
98,590
416
99,018
377
98,564
393
81,109
400
81,883
404
82,815
401
81,737
410
78,809
419
75,178
428
75,617
428
76,297
434
75,650
437
74,859
440
75,816
445
74,211
448
74,443
453
71,494
459
74,651
466
74,630
477
75,886
483
74,962
484
77,729
482
77,468
480
79,030
446
78,601
418
82,582
415
81,118
415
80,850
414
76,719
390
76,096
412
78,599
397
76,000

Passengers Available Seat Miles

12,084,000
21,384,000,000
12,155,000
22,356,000,000
11,456,000
21,409,000,000
11,220,000
21,459,000,000
12,256,000
22,813,000,000
11,254,000
21,994,000,000
9,508,000
18,219,000,000
12,062,000
20,375,000,000
13,099,000
22,286,000,000
13,006,000
22,626,000,000
12,874,000
21,054,000,000
11,518,000
20,843,000,000
13,044,000
21,241,000,000
13,727,000
22,819,000,000
13,769,000
21,907,000,000
12,810,000
22,670,000,000
14,558,000
24,150,000,000
14,862,000
24,674,000,000
14,252,000
23,588,000,000
14,122,000
23,585,000,000
15,540,000
25,482,000,000
15,905,000
26,833,000,000
15,448,000
25,720,000,000
15,594,000
26,117,000,000
17,596,000
28,259,000,000
17,328,000
29,262,000,000
16,601,000
27,280,000,000
16,176,000
27,250,000,000
18,120,000
29,592,000,000
17,901,000
30,346,000,000
16,733,000
28,550,000,000
16,440,000
28,376,000,000
17,108,000
30,304,000,000
17,962,000
30,383,000,000
15,183,000
26,448,000,000

Available Seat Miles Regional

Passenger Miles Flown
Employees Fuel Price Fuel Consumed

16,491,000,000
45,500
$0.80
386,000,000

17,325,000,000
46,000
$0.87
398,000,000

15,340,000,000
45,944
$0.89
372,000,000

15,114,000,000
38,396
$0.86
369,000,000

17,053,000,000
39,000
$0.82
391,000,000

16,206,000,000
39,500
$0.82
373,000,000

12,767,000,000
39,461
$0.83
369,000,000

14,867,000,000
40,229
$0.64
308,000,000

16,489,000,000
41,011
$0.72
332,000,000

16,960,000,000
41,809
$0.76
340,000,000

17,252,000,000
40,244
$0.74
316,000,000
1,767,000,000
14,352,000,000
38,960
$1.03
305,000,000
2,073,000,000
16,129,000,000
39,000
$0.88
308,000,000
1,605,000,000
18,041,000,000
39,500
$0.86
330,000,000
2,980,000,000
16,412,000,000
39,000
$0.87
314,000,000
2,400,000,000
16,255,000,000
38,240
$1.04
320,000,000
2,603,000,000
18,735,000,000
37,496
$1.79
347,000,000
1,999,000,000
19,922,000,000
36,766
$1.20
345,000,000
3,408,000,000
18,239,000,000
38,255
$1.19
321,000,000
2,740,000,000
18,112,000,000
41,831
$1.45
324,000,000
3,026,000,000
20,292,000,000
45,742
$1.67
344,000,000
3,112,000,000
21,762,000,000
50,018
$1.88
364,000,000
3,095,000,000
20,033,000,000
42,200
$1.78
344,000,000
3,082,000,000
20,336,000,000
42,600
$1.90
347,000,000
3,374,000,000
23,367,000,000
43,450
$2.11
375,000,000
3,503,000,000
24,042,000,000
41,500
$2.22
387,000,000
3,292,000,000
21,772,000,000
38,033
$2.06
362,000,000
3,126,000,000
21,450,000,000
41,800
$1.90
361,000,000
3,177,000,000
24,623,000,000
43,300
$2.08
395,000,000
3,193,000,000
25,422,000,000
41,400
$2.21
406,000,000
3,104,000,000
22,670,000,000
39,640
$2.50
380,000,000
3,098,000,000
22,280,000,000
43,000
$2.80
375,000,000
3,450,000,000
24,836,000,000
40,100
$3.86
389,000,000
3,390,000,000
24,746,000,000
43,500
$3.45
395,000,000
3,046,000,000
20,825,000,000
42,490
$2.93
339,000,000

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.995571089
0.991161793
0.961750028
62352744.44
35

ANOVA
df
1
34
35

SS
1.48242E+19
1.32187E+17
1.49564E+19

MS
1.48242E+19
3.88786E+15

0
0.999002733

Standard Error
#N/A
0.016178455

t Stat
#N/A
61.7489594

Regression
Residual
Total
Coefficients
Intercept
Amount Spent on fuel

Fuel=.999002733(Fuel Price*Fuel Consumed)

Decreasing flying capacity causes there to be a large spike in fuel consumed
Fuel costs are strcitly variable and reduing flying capacity should have a large impact on cost of fuel
Fuel consumtion is rising, but the price of fuel is falling rapidly
Q1
Q2
Q3
2009
732,728,544.55
889,212,332.64
733,577,696.87
2008 1,048,000,000.00 1,363,000,000.00 1,501,000,000.00
Decrease

Fuel Consumed
450000000
400000000
350000000
300000000
250000000

Fuel Consumed

200000000

Linear (Fuel Consum

150000000

F
3812.933987

Significance F
1.1069E-35

100000000
50000000
0
0

P-value
#N/A
1.67116E-36

1E+09

2E+09

Lower 95%
Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
0.966124157 1.031881308 0.966124 1.031881

Fuel Pric
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5

n cost of fuel

Q4
Total
947,474,172.03 3,302,992,746.09
993,000,000.00 4,905,000,000.00
1,602,007,253.91

1.5
1
0.5
0
0

1E+09

Fuel Consumed
Linear (Fuel Consumed)

Fuel Price

Fuel Price
Linear (Fuel Price)

2E+09

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.083014392
R Square
0.006891389
Adjusted R Square
-0.023202811
Standard Error
47605993.31
Observations
35
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Available Seat Miles

1
33
34
Coefficients
704701747.6
0.001163389

SS
MS
F
Significance F
5.18976E+14 5.18976E+14 0.228993934
0.635426182
7.47889E+16 2.26633E+15
7.53079E+16
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
60390402.57 11.66910167 2.96338E-13
0.002431157 0.478533106 0.635426182

Lower 95%
581836549.7
-0.003782837

Salaries and wages will be treated as a fixed cost.

Total cost for the year projected
2,818,806,990.36
Reduced by 11 percent
2,508,738,221.42
Difference
310,068,768.94
Salaries and wages will be treated as a fixed cost because this is a very weak regression. The adjusted R squared term is very l

Flights

120000
100000
80000
60000

Flights
40000

Linear (Flights)

20000
0
0

500000000

1E+09

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

827566945.4 581836549.7 827566945.4
0.006109615 -0.003782837 0.006109615

usted R squared term is very low, and the related P and T values for the variable compnent are too low to be considred signifigant.

ear (Flights)

dred signifigant.

Passengers Passenger Services

12,084,000
91,000,000
12,155,000
97,000,000
11,456,000
89,000,000
11,220,000
91,000,000
12,256,000
96,000,000
11,254,000
89,000,000
9,508,000
71,000,000
12,062,000
77,000,000
13,099,000
73,000,000
13,006,000
78,000,000
12,874,000
68,000,000
11,518,000
70,000,000
13,044,000
73,000,000
13,727,000
81,000,000
13,769,000
73,000,000
12,810,000
69,000,000
14,558,000
76,000,000
14,862,000
84,000,000
14,252,000

77,000,000

14,122,000
15,540,000
15,905,000
15,448,000
15,594,000
17,596,000

77,000,000
84,000,000
91,000,000
80,000,000
82,000,000
90,000,000

17,328,000
16,601,000
16,176,000
18,120,000
17,901,000
16,733,000
16,440,000
17,108,000
17,962,000
15,183,000

97,000,000
87,000,000
90,000,000
99,000,000
105,000,000
95,000,000
96,000,000
107,000,000
113,000,000
91,000,000

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.580334066
0.336787628
0.316690284
9474685.77
35

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
33
34

Intercept
Passengers

Coefficients
44584951.03319
2.87425

Y= 44,584,951.03+2.87425(x)

Quarter
2009 Forcasted Passenger
Services Cost
2008 Passenger Services Cost

1
$ 85,997,146.24
$

96,000,000.00

SS

MS
1.50434E+15
2.9624E+15
4.46674E+15

Standard Error
10222241.76293
0.70213

F
1.50434E+15
8.97697E+13

t Stat

16.75781726

P-value
4.36156
4.09363

0.00012
0.00026

2009 Forecasted # of Passengers

14,408,000
16,348,000
16,795,000
15,258,000
3

2
$
$

91,573,191.40

$
107,000,000.00 $

92,857,981.19 $
113,000,000.00 $

4
88,440,258.81
91,000,000.00

Passenger Services
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000

Passenger Services

60,000,000
Linear (Passenger
Services)

40,000,000

Significance F
0.000257729

20,000,000
0
0

5,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,000

Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
23787643.79227 65382258.27410 23787643.79227 65382258.27410
1.44576
4.30274
1.44576
4.30274

Total
$
$

358,868,577.64
407,000,000.00

Passenger Services
Linear (Passenger
Services)

Revenues
Distribution Costs
2,571,000,000
261,000,000
2,622,000,000
255,000,000
2,429,000,000
217,000,000
2,451,000,000
243,000,000
2,556,000,000
230,000,000
2,223,000,000
194,000,000
1,739,000,000
142,000,000
1,993,000,000
172,000,000
2,192,000,000
158,000,000
2,178,000,000
138,000,000
2,039,000,000
124,000,000
2,042,000,000
127,000,000
2,216,000,000
138,000,000
2,365,000,000
131,000,000
2,247,000,000
135,000,000
2,307,000,000
137,000,000
2,553,000,000
140,000,000
2,602,000,000
139,000,000
2,437,000,000
136,000,000
2,505,000,000
138,000,000
2,857,000,000
154,000,000
3,001,000,000
154,000,000
2,845,000,000
142,000,000
2,947,000,000
160,000,000
3,507,000,000
178,000,000
3,518,000,000
157,000,000
3,156,000,000
155,000,000
3,179,000,000
161,000,000
3,710,000,000
176,000,000
3,820,000,000
171,000,000
3,523,000,000
174,000,000
3,570,000,000
182,000,000
4,044,000,000
194,000,000
4,072,000,000
182,000,000
3,471,000,000
159,000,000

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.2010272
R Square
0.0404119
Adjusted R Square 0.0113335
Standard Error
36073252
Observations
35

df

Intercept
Revenues

250000000
200000000
150000000

ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

300000000

1
33
34
Coefficients
135333159
0.0114614

SS
100000000
1.80846E+15
4.29422E+16
50000000
4.47507E+16
Standard Error
27757926.72
0.0097223

Fixed Cost
$ 135,333,159.00
Estimated Distribution Costs for 2009
135333159*4 =

Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
Total

Distribution Costs 2008

182,000,000
194,000,000
182,000,000
159,000,000
717,000,000

Distribution Costs
300000000
250000000
200000000
150000000
100000000 MS

F
1.80846E+15 1.389756836
50000000 1.30128E+15
0

500000000
2E+09
2.5E+09
3E+09
t0Stat
P-value 1E+09 Lower1.5E+09
95%
Upper
95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
4.875477915 2.66112E-05
78859232.16 1.92E+08 78859232 1.92E+08
1.178879483 0.246876514
-0.008318748 0.031242 -0.00832 0.031242

ed Distribution Costs for 2009

$ 541,332,636.00

on Costs 2008

Significance F
0.246876514

3.5E+09

Cost function only seems to reflect fixed costs, despite fact that for last 3 years relationship is quite linea
Reduced by 11%
$ 481,786,046.04

Distribution Costs
Linear (Distribution Costs)

4E+09

relationship is quite linear

4.5E+09

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.985004036
0.970232952
0.920232952
75217551.12
21

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
20
21
Coefficients

Intercept
Regional Seat Miles Available

0
0.136168028

Regional Capacity Purchases is strictly variable relating to the regional seat miles available. Reducing capacity 11 percent will
Regional capacit purchases=.136168028(Regional Available Seat Miles)
2009
2008
Decrease

SS
3.68815E+18
1.13154E+17
3.8013E+18

MS
3.68815E+18
5.65768E+15

F
651.8838822

Significance F
3.60993E-16

Standard Error
#N/A
0.005333226

t Stat
#N/A
25.53201681

P-value
#N/A
9.75696E-17

Lower 95%
#N/A
0.125043113

Upper 95%
#N/A
0.147292944

ilable. Reducing capacity 11 percent will reduce seat miles available and make this cost lower.
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
Total
$ 404,555,212.19 $ 414,495,478.26 $ 426,205,928.70 $ 408,776,421.07 $ 1,654,033,040.21
506,000,000
589,000,000
553,000,000
425,000,000 $ 2,073,000,000.00
$

418,966,959.79

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
#N/A
#N/A
0.125043 0.147293

Available Seat Miles

Aircraft Rentals
21,384,000,000
210,000,000
22,356,000,000
215,000,000
21,409,000,000
213,000,000
21,459,000,000
214,000,000
22,813,000,000
223,000,000
21,994,000,000
230,000,000
18,219,000,000
236,000,000
20,375,000,000
228,000,000
22,286,000,000
231,000,000
22,626,000,000
227,000,000
21,054,000,000
216,000,000
20,843,000,000
223,000,000
21,241,000,000
224,000,000
22,819,000,000
225,000,000
21,907,000,000
224,000,000
22,670,000,000
220,000,000
24,150,000,000
222,000,000
24,674,000,000
224,000,000
23,588,000,000
225,000,000
23,585,000,000
227,000,000
25,482,000,000
229,000,000
26,833,000,000
234,000,000
25,720,000,000
238,000,000
26,117,000,000
245,000,000
28,259,000,000
248,000,000
29,262,000,000
249,000,000
27,280,000,000
248,000,000
27,250,000,000
248,000,000
29,592,000,000
248,000,000
30,346,000,000
249,000,000
28,550,000,000
249,000,000
28,376,000,000
247,000,000
30,304,000,000
246,000,000
30,383,000,000
244,000,000
26,448,000,000
240,000,000

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Available Seat Miles
Y= a+bX+e
157601796 + .0030209(X)
X= Available Seat Miles

2009 Aircraft Rental Cost (11% Reduction)

2008 Aircraft Rental Cost

tatistics
0.81756494
0.668412431
0.658364323
7252693.232
35

df
1
33
34

SS
3.49912E+15
1.73585E+15
5.23497E+15

MS
3.49912E+15
5.26016E+13

F
66.52122173

Significance F
2.0454E-09

Coefficients
157,601,796.05
0.003020861

Standard Error
9200376.541
0.000370383

t Stat
17.12992891
8.156054299

P-value
5.48273E-18
2.0454E-09

Lower 95%
138883489.2
0.002267312

Projected Number of Seat Miles

Quarter 1
26,323,000,000.00
Quarter 2
28,007,000,000.00
Quarter 3
28,933,000,000.00
Quarter 4
26,291,000,000.00

If available seat miles is the seats availab

the miles flown then an increase in sea
more miles are flown so more aircraft
rented

Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
Total
$ 237,120,946.70 $ 242,208,142.30 $ 245,186,749.70 $ 237,024,277.90 $ 961,540,116.60
$ 247,000,000.00 $ 246,000,000.00 $ 244,000,000.00 $ 240,000,000.00 $ 977,000,000.00

Aircraft Rentals
260000000
250000000
240000000

Aircraft Rentals

230000000
Linear (Aircraft
Rentals)

220000000
210000000
200000000
0

4E+10

Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
176320102.9 1.39E+08 1.76E+08
0.00377441 0.002267 0.003774

ble seat miles is the seats available multiplied by

les flown then an increase in seat miles means
e miles are flown so more aircrafts need to be
rented

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.897480504
R Square
0.805471254
Adjusted R Square
0.799576444
Standard Error 11200220.33
Observations
35
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

df
1
33
34

SS
1.71409E+16
4.13968E+15
2.12806E+16

MS
1.71409E+16
1.25445E+14

F
136.6407382

Significance F
2.82912E-13

Intercept
Passengers

Coefficients
32062649.06
9.702143145

Standard Error
12083921.59
0.829999017

t Stat
2.653331438
11.68934293

P-value
0.012162632
2.82912E-13

Lower 95%
7477725.727
8.013497448

Landing Fees=32062649+9.702143(Passengers)
Landing fees are driven by the number of passengers, since it relates to the amount paid to the airports for security fees.
mostly fixed cost, reducing flight capacity will not affect greatly
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Total
2009 171,851,125.34 190,673,282.76 195,010,140.69 180,097,946.89 737,632,495.69
2008
207,000,000
210,000,000
225,000,000
210,000,000
852,000,000
Decrease
114,367,504.31
Reduction in capacity causes the amount of passengers flown to be lower leading to lower costs in landing fees

Passengers
20000000
18000000
16000000
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0

Passengers
Linear (Passengers)

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
56647572 7477726 56647572
11.39079 8.013497 11.39079

airports for security fees.

s in landing fees

100000000

200000000

300000000

Passengers
Linear (Passengers)

Passenger Miles
Flown
Depreciation
16,491,000,000
98,000,000
17,325,000,000 102,000,000
15,340,000,000 107,000,000
15,114,000,000 105,000,000
17,053,000,000 111,000,000
16,206,000,000 120,000,000
12,767,000,000 131,000,000
14,867,000,000 106,000,000
16,489,000,000 112,000,000
16,960,000,000 112,000,000
17,252,000,000 114,000,000
14,352,000,000 116,000,000
16,129,000,000 110,000,000
18,041,000,000 110,000,000
16,412,000,000 108,000,000
16,255,000,000 104,000,000
18,735,000,000 105,000,000
19,922,000,000 104,000,000
18,239,000,000 102,000,000
18,112,000,000
99,000,000
20,292,000,000
98,000,000
21,762,000,000
97,000,000
20,033,000,000
95,000,000
20,336,000,000
96,000,000
23,367,000,000
97,000,000
24,042,000,000
99,000,000
21,772,000,000
99,000,000
21,450,000,000
99,000,000
24,623,000,000 101,000,000
25,422,000,000 106,000,000
22,670,000,000 107,000,000
22,280,000,000 106,000,000
24,836,000,000 108,000,000
24,746,000,000 112,000,000
20,825,000,000 111,000,000

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.46439235
0.215660254
0.191892383
6823133.277
35

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Passenger Miles Flown

1
33
34
Coefficients
125530857.10406
-0.00102

Y= 186824822.92
No strong linear relationship
Depreciation accounts for only fixed cost
Fixed Cost Forecasted= $ 502,123,428.42
Cost Reduced by 11%= $ 446,889,851.29

Depreciation
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000

SS
4.22423E+14
1.53632E+15
1.95874E+15
Standard Error
6613619.42649
0.00034

MS
F
4.22423E+14 9.073604177
4.65551E+13

Significance F
0.00494878

20,000,000
0
0

t Stat
18.98066
-3.01224

10,000,000,000

P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
0.00000 112075347.20935 138986366.99876 112075347.20935
0.00495
-0.00172
-0.00033
-0.00172

Depreciation

Depreciation

10,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 30,000,000,000

Upper 95.0%
138986366.99876
-0.00033

Revenues
Other Expenses
2,571,000,000
284,000,000
2,622,000,000
288,000,000
2,429,000,000
277,000,000
2,451,000,000
318,000,000
2,556,000,000
295,000,000
2,223,000,000
121,000,000
1,739,000,000
166,000,000
1,993,000,000
382,000,000
2,192,000,000
454,000,000
2,178,000,000
276,000,000
2,039,000,000
277,000,000
2,042,000,000
320,000,000
2,216,000,000
91,000,000
2,365,000,000
250,000,000
2,247,000,000
455,000,000
2,307,000,000
304,000,000
2,553,000,000
279,000,000
2,602,000,000
287,000,000
2,437,000,000
2,505,000,000

278,000,000
316,000,000

2,857,000,000
3,001,000,000
2,845,000,000
2,947,000,000
3,507,000,000
3,518,000,000
3,156,000,000

280,000,000
282,000,000
305,000,000
293,000,000
323,000,000
313,000,000
333,000,000

3,179,000,000
3,710,000,000
3,820,000,000
3,523,000,000
3,570,000,000
4,044,000,000
4,072,000,000
3,471,000,000

340,000,000
357,000,000
357,000,000
328,000,000
356,000,000
427,000,000
461,000,000
372,000,000

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.476152928
R Square
0.226721611
Adjusted R Square
0.203288932
Standard Error
70685994.77
Observations
35
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Revenues

Quarters

1
33
34
Coefficients
144801168.14111
0.05926

2009 11% Other

Expenses Reduction $ 320,325,626.77
2008 Other Expenses
356,000,000

SS
4.83435E+16
1.64885E+17
2.13228E+17
Standard Error
54392009.55427
0.01905

MS
4.83435E+16
4.99651E+15

F
9.675445822

Significance F
0.003835676

t Stat

P-value
0.01190
0.00384

Lower 95%
34139792.64395
0.02050

2.66218
3.11054

Y=144801168.14111+.05926(X)
Forecasted Revenues
$
2,962,000,000
$
2,767,000,000
$
2,947,000,000
$
2,462,000,000
2

308,770,167.82 $
427,000,000

4 Total

319,436,745.32 $ 290,696,244.83 $
461,000,000
372,000,000 $

1,239,228,784.74
1,616,000,000.00

Other Expenses
500,000,000
450,000,000
400,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0

Remember to note in memo the

reduction in fixed cost that should be
implemented
Other Expenses
Linear (Other Expenses)

4,000,000,000

Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
255462543.63828 34139792.64395 255462543.63828
0.09802
0.02050
0.09802

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.991242687
0.982562064
0.953150299
18191396.15
35

ANOVA
df
1
34
35

SS
6.3398E+17
1.12515E+16
6.45232E+17

MS
6.3398E+17
3.30927E+14

0
1652.696052

Standard Error
#N/A
37.75905147

t Stat
#N/A
43.76953306

2
113,043,773.67
167,000,000

3
113,043,773.67
152,000,000

Regression
Residual
Total
Coefficients
Intercept
Flights

Aircraft Maintenance=1652.696052(number of flights)

Quarter
2009 Forcasted Maintence Cost
2008 Maintanence Cost

1
113,043,773.67
159,000,000

120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0

F
1915.772025

P-value
#N/A
1.74594E-31

Significance F
8.26631E-31

Lower 95%
Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
1575.960426 1729.431677 1575.96 1729.432

4 Total
113,043,773.67
452,175,094.68
135,000,000 $ 613,000,000.00

76,719
76,096
78,599
76,000
76,854
68399.62

50000000

100000000

#REF!

#REF!
Linear (#REF!)

100000000

150000000

200000000

Revenues
Projected Operating cost:
Salaries and wages
Aircraft fuel & related taxes
Aircraft rentals
Landing fees
Aircraft maintenance & repairs
Depreciation & amortization
Distribution costs
Passenger services
Regional capacity purchases
Other expenses
Total operating cost
Expected profit(loss)

2008
2009
15,157,000,000.00 $ 11,138,000,000.00

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

2,958,000,000.00
4,905,000,000.00
977,000,000.00
852,000,000.00
613,000,000.00
437,000,000.00
717,000,000.00
407,000,000.00
2,073,000,000.00
1,616,000,000.00
15,555,000,000.00

$
$
$
$
$

2,508,738,221.42
3,302,992,746.09
961,540,116.60
737,632,495.69
452,175,094.68

446,889,851.29

$
481,786,046.04
$
358,868,577.64
$ 1,654,033,040.21
$
290,696,244.83
$ 11,195,352,434.49

(398,000,000.00) $

(57,352,434.49)

Difference 2008 to 2009

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

449,261,778.58
1,602,007,253.91
15,459,883.40
114,367,504.31
160,824,905.32
(9,889,851.29)
235,213,953.96
48,131,422.36
418,966,959.79
1,325,303,755.17
4,359,647,565.51

Further Cost Reductions

Difference
$
11,138,000,000.00
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

2,433,476,074.78
3,302,992,746.09
961,540,116.60
737,632,495.69
452,175,094.68
446,889,851.29
481,786,046.04
340,925,148.75
1,654,033,040.21
290,696,244.83
11,102,146,858.96

35,853,141.04

75,262,146.64

17,943,428.88

*To forecast number of flights we used the average number of flights from the last four quarters and reduced this
number of flights=68399.32

quarters and reduced this by 11 percent