THE CRIMEAN CRISIS EVENTS AND EFFECTS

INDEX 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. The Timeline Backgrounder : 2008 Georgian Crisis Understanding the Issues Involved Reaction and Sanctions Chinas Angle Indias Stand The Timeline
Crimea was transferred to Ukraine in 1954 against much opposition in Russia and Crimea. It was a casual decision.

7. The Way Ahead

Crimea to Ukraine Ukraine Independence Capital of Ukraine constitution

1991. Kiev Adopted- 1996, a semi-presidential republic Ukraine a republic with favorable economic conditions in comparison to the other regions of the Soviet Union.However- deeper economic slowdown lost 60% of its GDP from 1991 to 1999- suffered fivedigit inflation rates.Stabilized by turn of century

1990s Economic Crisis

Orange revolution

In 2004, Viktor Yanukovych, then Prime Minister, was declared the winner of the presidential elections, which had been largely rigged, as the Supreme Court of Ukraine later ruled a public outcry in support of the opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko This resulted in the peaceful Orange Revolution, bringing Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko(a woman) to power

Constitution Amendment 2004

2004, deputies introduced changes to the Constitution, which tipped the balance of power in favour of a parliamentary system.

Political football was played between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko with both of them coming to power one after again finally Yanukovych became President in 2010 and Tymoshenko finished .After the election, a number of criminal cases were brought against her convicted sentenced Constitution goes On 30 September 2010 the Constitutional Court ruled

back to 1996 form

that the amendments were null and void, forcing a return to the terms of the 1996 Constitution and again making Ukraines political system more presidential in character. 200809 Ukrainian financial crisis and Disputes with Russia over debts for natural gas briefly stopped all gas supplies to Ukraine in 2006 and again in 2009, leading to gas shortages in several other European countries The Euromaidan (literally means Eurosquare) protests started in November 2013, after then president Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union, describing it as disadvantageous to Ukraine ( Russia offered 15 billion dollar loan to stop Ukraine from signing ) Escalated in early 2014 On 21 February 2014 an agreement (mediated by EU) between President Viktor Yanukovych and opposition leaders saw the country return to the 2004 Constitution. Russia also agreed to it. 22 feb and fled to Russia. Impeachment procedure was not followed and this angered Russia who saw it as a plan to take Ukraine into EU and later to NATO

Economic CrisisReturns

Euromaidan Violence

Constitution again changed

Yanukovych Impeached Russia Returns (it left in 1991 when Ukraine gained independence)

On 1 March 2014 Russian troops to Ukraine On 6 March Crimean Parliament voted to enter into the Russian Federation and announced that a referendum on the topic would be held on 16 March. On 15 March 2014 the UN Security Council considered a resolution which would have urged member states not to recognize the results of the referendum, but that resolution was vetoed by Russia and did not pass. China was the sole country to abstain 16 March 97 % voted to join Russia Crimea and Sevastopol formally declared independence as the Republic of Crimea on 17 March, with both entities requesting they be admitted as constituents of the Russian Federation On 18 March 2014, Russia and Crimea signed a treaty of accession of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol in the Russian Federation. stated they wont recognize Crimeas annexation to Russia

Crimean Parliament Votes

UN Security Council Vetoed The Referendum

Declaration of Independence

Russia welcomes

US, EU, Ukraine

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is the worlds largest security-oriented intergovernmental organization. Its mandate includes issues such as arms control and the promotion of human rights, freedom of the press and fair elections.OSCE earlier declined to send observers as it considered the referendum illegal under the Ukrainian constitution, and as it would only accept an invitation if extended from UkraineThe Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) approved a 100-strong mission for UkraineKiev-based mission will be initially deployed for six months in nine places in eastern and western Ukraine Aim is to contribute to reducing tensions and fostering peace, stability and security. Crimea is not mentioned in the mandate, but the United States insisted it had the right to go to the peninsula. Russia says otherwise. OSCE

BACKGROUNDER : 2008 Georgian Crisis South Ossetia declared independence from Georgia during the 19911992 South Ossetia war , Abkhazia declared its independence after its war with Georgia in 199293 Kosovos declaration of independence 2008 and its divided international acceptance prompted speculation questions were raised how it will affect Ossetia and Abkhazia India stated that Kosovo can set a very dangerous precedent for similar cases around the world

In April 2008, the United Nations Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 1808 that Georgias unity and territorial integrity The 2008 South Ossetia war was fought in August 2008 between Georgia on one side and South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Russia on the other, resulting in a South Ossetia, Abkhaz and Russian victory and the expulsion of the Georgian military from both territories. South Ossetia and Abkhazia appealed to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for official recognition of their independence as sovereign President Medvedev signed decrees recognizing the independence

UNDERSTANDING THE ISSUES

Sevastopol

The Russian Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol (est. 1783) is only warm water base that Russia has.1997 Treaty Divided the Base between Russia (82%) and Ukraine (18%) and Russia was given right to use the port for 20 years. In 2010 agreement was made to extend it to 2047 Russia needs a buffer zone to feel safe(this was the reason for neutralization of FINLAND after WW II)If Ukraine becomes part of NATO NATO would come within 425 km of Moscow Cut off Russia from Black Sea and Mediterranean Already, The deployment of ballistic missile defence systems in Europe has enhanced Russian insecurities.

Geographical Proximity between NATO EU and Russia

EEU (Eurasian Economic Union)

Putin wants to build EEU a Moscow led version of EU and sees Ukraine as a crucial part of it as Ukraine is second most powerful economy in the former Soviet Union.(US has denounced this plan as an attempt to recreate Soviet Union and has vowed to disrupt it) The Russian Defence Ministry announced that fewer than 2,000 of the more than 18,000 Ukrainian troops stationed in Crimea said they wanted to return to Ukraine. Russian flags have been raised on 54 out of 67 Ukrainian naval vessels, including eight combat ships and Ukraines only submarine. This would mean that Ukraine has lost almost its entire Navy

Ukraines Navy

REACTIONS AND SANCTIONS Russia has been suspended from the G8

Currently the sanctions ( by US and EU ) are being seen as political reproach (meaning: expression of disapproval) and comprises of asset freezes and travel bans for some Russians. Russia is responding with its own sanctions of similar nature The asset freeze of select Russian individuals is likely to misfire since Mr. Putin, a year ago ordered all government officials to close their bank accounts and sell off properties abroad Next step would be broad based economic sanctions including trade embargoes and business asset freezes. This will not be equally acceptable to US and EU and even different countries of EU will have different level of acceptability as EU-Russian economies are closely linked. Germany is likely to be hit the hardest Russia is EUs third largest trading partner (>40% trade), major energy supplier (80% of Russian oil and natural gas exports go to EU) and a hub of European business investment.

Moreover European economy is already in deflationary crisis Trade sanctions would be painful for Russia too as imports account for 40% of Russias consumption. The share of food import reaches 50% but Moscow has said it would compensate the shortfall by purchasing from the BRIC countries Russia will also loose from ban on western technology that are being used to modernize industries, including the defense sector. Russian arms exports could suffer. (Sukhoi Su-30MKIsupplied to India has key components sourced from western manufacturers) These sanctions may push Russia towards China. Russia may step up defense sales to China and reorient its energy exports towards east ( there is already a pipeline from Russia to China along the pacific coast )

Global Effects The crisis has deepened the distrust between Russia and the West at a time when serious issues like Syria, Iran and Afghanistan are yet to be resolved. Russia-US cooperation on the implementation of the arms control agreement New START may be affected Russia has accused ultranationalists in Ukraine for the collapse of Yanukovych government and there is a possibility of terrorism rearing its head in the heart of Europe The US seems far too preoccupied with the Arab-Israeli dispute, the Syrian imbroglio, the Iran nuclear question and now Putins aggressiveness over the Ukraine. What is the future of the US pivot to Asia? CHINAS ANGLE The Russians see Chinese abstention as China not supporting the Western position. China has said it stands for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states. Taiwan must be on Chinas mind. China is being careful. It has sought to take a cautious stand by abstaining in UNSC vote on referendum Why did China Abstain? Chinese policy that a fundamental aspect of international law is the proviso that the territorial integrity of nation states must not be violated. China has been fairly consistent in this approach. China opposed the creation of Bangladesh, as much as it did the NATO bombing of Serbia which ultimately led to the subsequent separation of Kosovo from Serbia. China along with Russia and India did not recognize the separation of Kosovo. Chinese policy on the other hand has also been quite realistic. China subsequently

recognized Bangladesh as an independent state; is quiescent over Kosovo and in all probability will recognize the Crimea as a part of Russia but albeit after a decent interval.

Although the population of non-Han minorities is only about 100 million, yet the minorities occupy nearly one-half of the Chinese landmass But the two important minority areas of Tibet and Xinjiang make the Chinese extremely sensitive on any developments in these two areas. In Xinjiang, local communities overlap with those of the Central Asian states the commitment of these communities to the Chinese Central government is rather weak. Therefore administrative and political control in Xinjiang becomes problematical and cannot be divorced totally from the events in Central Asian republics The so-called Russian threat is likely to become an issue in US domestic politics. With Putin and Russia as their foremost targets; China in Asia would seem rather far away. So China is secretly happy too. United States inability to focus on pivot to Asia ( because it is already preoccupied with Israel-Arab, Iran, Syria and now Crimea) will also benefit China strategically in Asian geopolitics INDIAs STAND Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the prime minister emphasized the consistent position India had on the issues of unity and territorial integrity of countries and hoped that all sides would exercise restraint and work together constructively to find political and diplomatic solutions that protected the legitimate interests of all countries in the region and ensured long term peace and stability in Europe and beyond. India has stated its position not to support unilateral sanctions by any country unless authorized by the UN. There is no likelihood of UN sanctions against Russia because the latter will veto any such sanctions. India would, however, be worried about the escalating tensions between Russia and the West. It has substantial interests with both the sides. Eventually there will be pressures on India from both the sides to take position as the East-West rift deepens. Undoubtedly India must actively engage with both sides but it may have to, once again, turn to a modified version of non-alignment suited for modern conditions. UNSC membership aspirations require a balanced approach from a regional power like India India also has some crucial defence deals with Ukraine which might get hampered THE WAY AHEAD There is a demand from part of Moldavia to join Russia Similar demands from eastern Ukraine too ex-Soviet States

Finlandization (neutralization of a small country by a superpower, using conciliation, as the former Soviet Union did in relation to Finland)and Belgian solution for Ukraine in future is being talked about by political scientists BELGIAN SOLUTION When Belgium declared independence from the Kingdom of the Netherlands in 1830, its future was uncertain. France proposed a partition of Belgium in which it would annex the strategic city of Brussels. But others had a better idea. In the Treaty of London, the UK, France, Prussia, Russia, Austria and Holland agreed to respect Belgiums territorial integrity and permanent neutrality. As a result, Belgium enjoyed nearly a century of peace that ended only with the outbreak of World War I. The US criticism of Russian action as illegal seems to forget its own actions in recent past The Monroe Doctrine was articulated in President James Monroes seventh annual message to Congress on

December 2, 1823. The European powers, according to Monroe, were obligated to respect the Western Hemisphere as the United States sphere of interest. Operation Urgent Fury was a 1983 United States-led invasion of Grenada, a Caribbean island nation north of Venezuela, that resulted in a U.S. victory. Triggered by a bloody military coup which had ousted a four-year revolutionary government, the invasion resulted in a restoration of constitutional government The United States Invasion of Panama, code-named Operation Just Cause, was the invasion of Panama by the United States in December 1989. It occurred during the administration of U.S. President George H. W. Bush, and ten years after the TorrijosCarter Treaties were ratified to transfer control of the Panama Canal from the United States to Panama by 1 January 2000. During the invasion, de facto Panamanian leader, general, and dictator Manuel Noriega was deposed, presidentelect Guillermo Endara sworn into office, and the Panamanian Defense Force dissolved.