Seismic Shift in Alberta politics possible: Manning

Alliance brings new threat to Conservatives

Jason Fekete, Calgary Herald; with files from the Edmonton Journal – October 20, 2009

CALGARY - New Wildrose Alliance Leader Danielle Smith assailed the provincial Tories
on Monday for taking voters for granted, as political icon Preston Manning argued
Alberta is halfway to seeing another seismic shift that tosses out the governing party.

In Calgary for her first press conference since winning the Alliance leadership on
Saturday, Smith said she wants to restore the Alberta Advantage and offer up a
"mainstream, grassroots conservative party" that's a legitimate alternative to the
dynastic Tories.

She argued the Alliance's recent byelection win in Calgary-Glenmore -- a riding held by
the Tories for 40 years -- is evidence a lot of small-c conservatives are re-examining
their options.

"People have already been shaken loose from their traditional voting habits and we just
have to earn their trust and give them a reason to vote for us again," Smith told
reporters. "We have an opportunity to catch one of those historic waves."

Smith believes many centre-right voters will hold memberships in both the Alliance and
Progressive Conservative parties until Premier Ed Stelmach's mandatory leadership
review Nov. 7 in Red Deer, after which time they'll decide where to park their support.

She doused speculation, though, that Tory MLAs might cross the floor to join the
Alliance.

In Edmonton, Stelmach welcomed his newest opponent to the political ring, but said he'll
continue to govern with the overwhelming majority Albertans gave him in last year's
provincial election.

"We have a sizable majority; people gave us a strong mandate to do what's right for all
Albertans," Stelmach said. "We'll continue to do that."

While there might not be any movement en masse for Tory MLAs to jump ship to the
Alliance, Reform party founder Manning said half of the equation is in place that would
see the 38-year Progressive Conservative dynasty crumble.

The former Reform leader --who contemplated a run for the PC leadership in 2006--
believes the Tories are slowly striking up a recipe for being toppled, by looking old and
tired. But the Alliance have yet to show whether they're a government in waiting with a
"powerful, inspirational idea," which is the other major ingredient for a change in
government, he added.

"We're halfway there in the sense that there is a party that's been long in office and does
appear to be struggling to have anything new or different to contribute," Manning said
Monday.
"It has yet to be seen whether the Wildrose Alliance has(the other) side of the equation,"
added Manning, who knows Smith well and has quietly offered occasional counselling to
Alliance officials since the last provincial election.

Manning's father Ernest Manning was part of the Social Credit movement that swept the
United Farmers of Alberta out of power in 1935, before the Socreds themselves were
toppled by Peter Lougheed's PCs in 1971.

Stelmach's Tories hold 70 of 83 seats in the legislature and are comfortably ahead of all
parties in the polls. The premier shrugged off Smith's combative stance toward his
government.

"Usually when you get into a hockey game or something, you get all pumped for it.
There will be a lot said," Stelmach added.

Smith, meanwhile, said her priorities are to recruit candidates, establish constituency
associations in half of the provincial ridings that have no organization, tour northern
Alberta and build the party's financial war chest.

The Alliance leader said she'll consider contesting a byelection if one pops up, but would
otherwise look to run in her home riding of Calgary-North Hill in the next provincial
campaign. She plans to make a major policy announcement next month.

Smith raised and spent $250,000 on her leadership race, but refuses to identify
campaign donors, fearing they could be punished by the government.

NDP critic Rachel Notley called on the province to pass a law requiring parties to
disclose all political donations, including those made in leadership races.

"Albertans have the right to know who's contributing to your campaign," Notley said.

Political scientist Peter McCormick said the Alliance has had a great run over the last six
months, but its challenge will be maintaining momentum before the next election, likely
in 2012.

"That's hard to sustain," said McCormick, professor at the University of Lethbridge,

noting Smith's first task must be building a larger political party because "there isn't one
yet."