The IT Department of 2020

Outlook
Think about all the change that has occurred in the past 10 yearsfrom the societal to the individual, from the economic to the technological. These changes have not just affected the enterprise, theyve redefined it. And of course, the rate of change is only accelerating.
So, what will a successful enterprise look like in 15 years? Or 10? Or even 5? How will it interact with customers, engage partners and empower employees? How might its business models, operating principles and organizational structures differ from todays enterprise?
To imagine the future of the enterprise, we must understand the forces that are transforming our world ! and the technological innovations that are shaping ! the future. How will our professional and ! personal lives be different? And in what ! new and unexpected ways will technology ! work for us? Individually, we are at best nearsighted to changes that will affect the enterprise in 2020 and beyond.
But if we gather thousands of thinkers from the enterprise community, provoke one another to discuss the global, social, business and technological trends that are beginning to emergeand help each other arrive at some consensus then each of us will be better prepared not only to bring the challenges of the future into focus, but also to help our organizations do the same.
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort to imagine, discuss and debate the future of the enterprise. This six-month experimentpresented by HP and driven by the enterprise visionaries, industry leaders and technology experts who make up our community of customerswill result in a full-length, cloud-enabled book about what it will take for enterprises to succeed in 2020 and beyond.
Together, we will examine trends, challenge assumptions and ultimately drill down to the very issues that matter most to the boardroom, the applications team, the marketing department, the IT operations center and the CIOs office.
I.1 Community Discussion Highlights
Changes ahead
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. What will the enterprise of 2020 look like? This questionand the questions that spawn from the myriad answersis what this community-sourced project endeavors to answer. Obviously, no one answer is correct; no one can see the future. But the ideas generated from the Enterprise 20/20 community can help lead us down the path.! I think that the "apps of the future" will be multi-client. They will support One premisethat TVs, smartphones and other devices as we know them will disappear, and the smartphone of the future will be in your braingenerated much conversation among community members, who for the most part believe we always will need some form of physical device in our daily lives. I think that the "apps of the future" will be multi-client. They will support smartphones, tablets, laptops and where appropriate and increasingly, the TV, notes Mike Shaw. The client would behave
differently depending on the device. And, context would travel ! between devices. Luigi Tiano sees the tablet becoming the de facto device for most computing: In my opinion, the tablet will become a commodity (it's on its way) and it will become the standard tool for most individuals, he writes. Smart phones are great for a quick x, but Im not sure they give us that ability to perform heavy work.
A cloudy future
For all the conversation around devices, the ability to have access anytime, anywhere is still of utmost importance. Indeed, it is driving a number of conversations around cloud computing, including whether it is the technology of the future. Community member beemaraj believes the clouds usefulness in about 15 years: Cloud will remain for another decade and its successor can be expected around 2025. Luigi Tiano agrees, although doesnt believe the cloud will go away: I am a strong believer that the cloud will continue to grow until it becomes the standard for both organizations and individuals, he notes. The name may change to something less ambiguous, but the concept will remain the same. Much of it depends on your denition of cloud, says Charles Bess. If it means increased exibility in the consumption of abundant resources,
then it will be with us for a long time and part of whatever is to come. If you view it as a more limited IaaS capability, than there is the whole exible value stream of IaaS->PaaS->SaaS->BPO->Consulting that provide more capability and additional exibility where it can ! be adopted.
I am a strong believer that the cloud will continue to grow until it becomes the standard for both organizations and individuals. Luigi Tiano
Other technologies may come and go by 2020, but most community members agree cloud computing is a technology whose time has comeand will be around for the long haul.
Go to the next Community Discussion page
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World
When you think of 2020 what comes to mind? For some, 20/20 means perfect vision. For others, 2020 is a not-too-distant point in the future, just far enough to be somewhat fuzzyor, depending on your point of view, completely obscure.
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Imagining the world of tomorrow means looking at the world of today, learning from the lessons of others, and being open to challenging new ideas. Here are six trends we think will shape our world by 2020
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Young and old, more people will live on and shape our planet.
Enterprise implications The digital youth entering the workforce will expect what todays digital natives expect: intuitive, 24x7 mobile access to information and the use of social tools to improve their effectiveness. Active seniors will bring valuable experience to the workforce, provided we design exible environments (virtual or mobile ofces) and apply our ingenuity to delivering effective and efcient health care. To address the consumer preferences of the social media-savvy generation, enterprises will need to extract meaning from the massive amounts of text, video and audio content that exists. And targeting consumers, while negotiating their strong desire for privacy, will require smarter analytics and more computing power than ever before.
Between now and 2020, nearly 1 billion youth will reach adulthooda. This next generation of parents, leaders, workers and educators will nd themselves surrounded by more people. Older people, younger people, richer and poorer people. Many of these people will come of age in developing nations. But what will be different is that they will have grown up more aware of their world, connected through media and mobility to a global grid and a context to match. And with the exposure will come the desire for change for access to more and better goods and services, education, opportunities and healthier, richer lives. Simultaneously, well see the graying of the population in so-called developed countries. In total well have nearly 7.6 billion people, including 23% more people over 75 years old, 30% more people over 80 years old and 58% more over 90 years oldb. These seniors will be more active and will work longer whether because of better health, nancial need or personal passion.
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The middle class in developing countries will redene markets.

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In parallel to population growth, well see a marked shift in the balance of economic power. Western tastes and inuences will no longer dominate the world consumer goods market, as the buying power of middle classes in China, India, Brazil, and Russia booms.
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We should expect to see global tastes in fashion and entertainment more inuenced by these newly dominant economies. The increasing connectedness of our 20/20 world will have a major impact on the rate at which attitudes and tastes from one culture assimilate globally. Likes will promote Chinese pop artists, Indian fashion labels, and Russian consumer goods at a rate unimagined to advertising executives from the previous century, buoyed by pride in local heroes, styles and products, and social networks combined with digital reach connecting millions.
Enterprise implications As more countries challenge the Wests economic power, enterprises everywhere must rapidly react, plug into and reach the newly dominant cultures in the world of 2020. Success will require a blend of hiring people who grew up in these growth economies as well as exible and adaptable business processes that develop products, services and messages to meet local preferences, tastes and needs. Enterprises will require advanced analytics and exible business processes (most likely comprised of cloud-based services) to adapt to rapidly emerging and varying market opportunities.
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Resource scarcity will make us more resourceful.
Necessity breeds invention. Scarcity of natural resources, from energy and water to precious metals to arable land, will be starting points for innovation. Population growth and the rise of the middle class is driving consumption around the globe. As our existing resources become scarcer and more expensive, we will nd new ways to improve our lives and the health of our world, knowing that failure will lead to austerity, or worse. We foresee our society innovating new means of energy production, creating more comfortable and energy-efcient housing options to support our ongoing migration to cities, and eliminating shortages of educated workers by using the Internet to boost literacy rates and marketable skills.
Population growth and the rise of the middle class is driving consumption around the globe.
Enterprise implications Enterprises will capitalize on new product and services opportunities in existing markets that are challenged by resource scarcity. Already, venture capitalists are betting billions of dollars on new energy concepts, and enterprises will apply new techniques to improve yields on everything from agricultural production to resource extraction. For internal improvement, enterprises will employ energy- and waterefcient strategies even as they grow compute, storage and network capacity to meet the growing demands of an increasingly digital populace and business environment. Increased use of cloud computing will provide exibility to tap spare capacity with limited waste.
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Most of us will live in cities.

In particular, they hold the promise of lower carbon footprints per dweller and convenient physical access to services including education, health care and transportation. Also, the population density of cities makes access to high-bandwidth Internet more affordable to provide and consume, which in turn provides convenient digital access to goods, services and markets.
Urban areas will be home to more than 60% of the worlds population by 2020c, up from about 50% in 2007d. This includes more than 70 cities with more than 5 million residents and more than 25 megacities with 10 million-plus residentse. Cities have their problems, including the potential for inadequate housing, congestion and pollution. But well-run cities have attributes that will improve living conditions and our planet over time.
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Enterprise implications Increasingly, high-bandwidth access to over half of the worlds population provides numerous opportunities for enterprises: Enterprises will engage and interact with customers (and citizens) in rich, expressive, multi-media experiences 24x7. Imagine consumers around the globe trying your latest athletic shoe in a digital 3D augmented-reality experience. Enterprises will design rich virtual working environments to engage the best and brightest employees or contractors wherever they reside. At the same time government agencies and businesses alike will need to bring design and technology solutions to improve housing and transportation systems, solve trafc gridlock, to increase energy efciency of buildings and nd ways to use mobile and other solutions to serve the 40% still in towns and rural areas. The use of sensors to manage trafc ow and lighting in cities has already started, but should be even more intelligent with the technologies emerging by 2020.
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Well lose our village connections, but gain cyber connections.

Enterprise implications Increasingly, enterprises will amplify their intellectual property by creating virtual value chains of specialistscontractors, small businesses, other enterprisesthat can help them take ideas to value rapidly. Social collaboration and the cloud will enable these virtual value chains to rapidly assemble, collaborate and realize new market opportunities, then dissolve and reintegrate around the next opportunity. Sentiment analysis across social networks will help elected ofcials and marketers stay in touch with the citizens and markets they serve. In addition, use of social networks to support election candidates will be commonplace around the globe. Enterprises will need to make sure they engage effectivelyin a timely and targeted fashion. The replacement of text-based social communications (SMS, tweets) with video messages at global scale will necessitate the use of advanced analytics that render a precise understanding of the meaning and sentiment embedded in unstructured information. The popularity of video as a communication medium will also drive demand for more compute, network and storage capacity.
Our connectedness and the pervasiveness of information continue to have positive impact. Social media is increasingly informing marketing and new product development, but it is also widely credited as a major facilitator of the Arab Spring of 2011. In 2020 well see it in even wider use to connect people with their personal and professional contacts, as well as communities of interest, businesses and governments. People will increasingly take advantage of bandwidth enhancements to express themselves in rich multimedia without being constrained by character counts. Yet there will be tension as increasingly busy lives and the deluge of information threaten to overload our brains. The digitally savvy citizens of 2020 will appreciate the people, enterprises and government agencies who engage selectively and intelligently helping them balance the glut of information with their poverty of attention.
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We will wrestle with our often conicting needs for security, privacy and open access to information.
As we share more of our personal data across social network sites, online retail, banking, utilities and municipal services in 2020, the threat of identity misuse and cyber crime will be ever present. Sensors we wear to monitor our health and that line the streets to control trafc as well as the mobile devices we carry will feed millions of updates to systems that can be used for good or misused for ill. Businesses and governments will try to balance the demands of customers and citizens for constant access to information while maintaining appropriate security and privacy controls. But hackers, cyber criminals and cyber terrorists will continue to troll for new ways to target organizations with denial of service attacks and data theft.
In 2020, the threat of identity misuse and cyber crime will be ever present.
Regulators will try to protect the populace from cyber criminals, rogue traders and nefarious corporations. Executives will be held personally responsible for managing the tradeoffs between ensuring the welfare of their customers, employees and personal reputations, and leveraging the value of personal information.
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Hackers, cyber criminals and cyber terrorists will continue to troll for new ways to target organizations.
Enterprise implications Boards and enterprises that havent already done so will appoint C-level executives to manage security, privacy, risk and compliance. Commercial and government organizations will outsource sensitive IT processes to secure cloud providers. These providers will employ former national intelligence specialists to continuously monitor and safeguard information at every level from infrastructure through to software applications. We will nd new ways to help customers, employees and citizens understand and make tradeoffs between access and security.
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Communication breakdown
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. Members of the Enterprise 20/20 community believe many of the trends discussed in this section will impact the advancement of technology in 2020, but two of the most popular topics emerging were whether information and communications technology will be more widespread globally by 2020 and how different societies and HHHHHHHHHHHHH cultures impact the enterprises of their respective countries. HHHHHHHHHHHHH Opinions were spirited on both sides of the fence.
Although some countries have announced a national broadband plan, access to ICT is still limited in many places in the world, writes Luis Minoru Shibata. ICT access in the metropolitan or main urban areas around the world is evolving. However, the lack of infrastructure and/or the limited purchasing power of consumers in other areas may create a huge gap in the society. Other community members believe currently underdeveloped countries will leapfrog into ubiquitous access using alternative technologies. I'm sure we will get there by 2020. If we see the speed at which things have moved forward over the last 5 years, I cannot imagine we have not resolved the technical issues by then. And the emerging countries will be rst as they are not stopped by old infrastructure, notes ! Christian Verstraete. An interesting question that may develop: Will the denition of ICT change so that it is available everywhere?, asks Charles Bess. Or will it change in the other direction, increasing in capabilities and requirements to the point where it is available to an ever more concentrated group of people (e.g., urbanites)?
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Glass is half full

When posed the question, Will ICT be available and accessible to all anywhere in 2020? some community members see a future where information and communications technology will be more widespread than today, but the accessibility of technology will be based as much on nancial benet as on population densities.
ICT: Glass half empty

Still others took a pessimistic view of the future. There will always be some regions with lower access [and] it could become worse in future, but this is a natural behavior ... We should not forget that the requirement
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in bandwidth and quality should probably be few orders of magnitude higher to support the internet of objects, writes Patrick DeMichel.
will grow up in a more global society, he writes. New generations will be agnostic to cultural differences. Horia Slusanschi, meanwhile, is more circumspect: The main obstacle in global enterprises that impedes cultural harmonization is a lack of awareness, he writes.
The effects of culture on enterprises

While the future of widespread global ICT seems fuzzy, community members were more denitive in their opinions of the Impact of prevalent mindsets in different societies, cultures and countries on enterprises. Indeed, they note, the global economy is forcing many enterprises to adopt and adapt to meet the needs of all their customers, both local and international.! Obviously all these differences [between countries] have an impact on how to run a business in a certain country, notes Dennis Kruegel. And especially for global companies this is obviously a big challenge in terms of successfully accessing the various markets and engage employees with totally different backgrounds. James McGovern agrees: When it comes to diversity, it is somewhat inaccurate to look at global trends while ignoring local ones. ... We live in local societies where we tend to travel in circles of people who share attributes similar to our own. Paul van Ingen, meanwhile, believes the benet of a globally connected society will impact younger employees the most. Though there of course are cultural differences, behaviors and preferences in different parts of the globe, I really believe that new generations
When it comes to diversity, it is somewhat inaccurate to look at global trends while ignoring local ones. !
James McGovern
Both discussions highlight the importance of communication to the success of any enterprise. Whether its the ability to communicate via information and communications technology or communicating with an increasingly global marketplace, enterprises must rise to the occasion to ensure their voice is heard.
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Technology
How can I help you? This phrase sums up technology in 2020systems that will work alongside us, helping us to maximize scarce resources, to process the deluge of sensorand human-generated information and to gain insights to make progress rapidly.
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Looking at technologies that may be available by 2020, and considering how theyll help us realize our fullest potential, is how well solve the challenges of the next decade.
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Cognitive systems as human partners.
Autonomous transportation systems will manage vehicle ow through a megacity of 20 million people. This will be made possible by combining a vast array of trafc sensors, advanced real-time analytics and the immense computing power required to perform cognitive decision making on the y and at scale.
Enterprise implications As we increase our population densities, we must manage the systems that support us. We must know whats happening out there in detail. And we must optimize our systems so that we dont waste resources while striving to improve our quality of life (one without shortages and huge delays). We will see these cognitive systems used to manage utilities, emergency services and crime prevention. Well also see ultra-optimized supply chains where we know the position of every item in the chain.
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Computation re-imagined.
The amount of data in the world is set to increase by 44 times from 2009 to 2020f. This is due to the growth in unstructured data and the widespread use of sensors to tell us whats going on out there. Gathering all this data, analyzing it and then interacting with a world of mobile humans is not possible with todays computing and network technology. By 2020, new computer/storage blocks will allow us to take in and process huge amounts of data in real time. And networks, especially mobile networks, will be faster and able to securely handle the 33fold increase in trafc we will see from 2010 to 2020g.
The amount of data in the world is set to increase by 44 times from 2009 to 2020.
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Enterprise implications Our development systems must evolve to program arrays of hundreds of thousands of processors optimally. Our existing IT management systems wont scale to manage such environments. IT management in 2020 will be very good at exing adjusting to peak demands that could be 20, 50 or 100 times the normal run rate. These systems must also be self-healing. We see this technology evolving today with run-book automation; but to handle the systems of 2020, self-adjusting and self-healing must be programmed in during development, not bolted on after release.
IT management in 2020 will be very good at exing - adjusting to peak demands that could be 20, 50 or 100 times the normal run rate.
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I.3 Technology
Insights to help humans.
By 2020, robotic medical assistants will make the hospital rounds, detecting signals from sensors attached to patients. These assistants will talk to medi-cloud systems that process the information to provide insights and alerts to medical staff. We will augment and enhance our existing businesses by better understanding our customers and the changes in our markets. We will invent entirely new businesses by exploiting information at a velocity and on a scale that was previously unattainable. In the two decades preceding 2020, some of the most successful Internet search, social networking and gaming companies were built on the foundation of realtime analytics of large-scale data.
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As data continues to expand through increased human usage, people will increasingly value the time savings and convenience afforded by a system that understands our current needs and then, via microsegmentation, targets content and offers based on those precise needs. By 2020, our scarcest resource will be our own attention spans. These systems will focus us on the things that are important.
By 2020, our scarcest resource will be our own attention spans.

Enterprise implications Product and service designers will need to design systems that: Determine the human users current situation Understand precisely what the person wants; and Use powerful analytical ability to make highly focused and insightful suggestions.
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Personalizing the power of the cloud.

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By 2020, most of us will have mobile devices. These devices will be able to see what we are looking at, understand our gestures and reliably know what we are asking. Yet they will lack the elastic, scalable computing power and linkages to huge stores of unstructured and sensor data that the back-end cloud will have.
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I.3 Technology
This combination of advanced mobile front-ends and analysis-capable back-end cloud capability, however, will mean that applications will know our wants and needs in some cases, even before we do. Today, our mobile devices present information and conclusions to us in a way that is at literally. Humans can reason in 3D much more readily, because thats how we interact with the physical world. By 2020, our mobile devices will be able to display 3D for ush.
By 2020, our mobile devices will be able to display 3D for us.
For example, an architect works with an architectural cloud service via her mobile device. The resulting design is projected in 3D by the mobile device. Such technology is already in use for cancer drug design but its very expensive and most certainly not mobile.
Enterprise implications Applications will be based on a client/cloud model. These applications will support a range of clients mobile, smart TV, gaming device or laptop. The applications will connect to domain-specic back ends like the aforementioned architecture cloud. We will be able to move from mobile to smart TV to laptop seamlessly the cloud service will remember our state as we client hop, and the application will scale our capabilities to match our current client.
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Dynamic services.
By 2020, many more business opportunities will be served by clusters of afliated specialists individual consultants or small businesses that join together to bring a product or service to market. Take, for example, the explosion of mobile apps in this decade frequently theyre built not by large integrated companies, but by an entrepreneur who contracts out the design, animation, programming and back-end cloud services to various experts who coalesce to create and deliver the app. People will increasingly work as free agents or will form into clusters of small-to-midsize businesses (SMBs). In order to create products and deliver services, these dynamic mosaics of specialists will be linked by advanced collaboration tools. The business processes that IT delivers will likewise be mosaics mosaics linked by process management and integration technology. CIOs will thus become innovators, designing business processes and orchestrating services (as well as architecting the reliability, security and cost/performance of these processes and services).
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Enterprise implications The speed with which teams can be formed from pools of afliated specialists will be a competitive advantage to the enterprise, as will be the degree to which groups are creative and productive. The enterprise thus needs to ensure it has excellent tools and processes to support such working methods.
Service providers that offer cloud services to support SMBs will evolve. They will provide aggregation services allowing SMBs to simply plug in and go, creating fully functioning companies within a day. Cloud will become common, secure and reliable. This will allow IT to evolve from being a support function to becoming a key participant in business teams. Highly geared business process and application design tools, coupled with a rich array of cloud services, will allow IT to quickly create solutions that give the business competitive advantage. This will require a change of skills in the IT department, from people focused on operations, to people with skills at the intersection between business analyst and IT designer. We believe this is an exciting time for ITthe ability to inject competitive advantage into business teams will mean that IT is highly valued by the business.
People will increasingly work as free agents or will form into clusters of small-to-midsize businesses (SMBs).
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Cyber-physical Systems.
A pharmaceutical factory control system uses an array of sensors to conserve water, energy and material used in its factory. The system reduces waste produced by the factory and ensures adherence to all relevant eco-compliance levels. By 2020, we will all be acutely aware of the limits on our physical resources water, energy, minerals and food. We will employ cyberphysical systems (systems built from and based on the synergy of physical and computational components) to better control our effect on the environment and our use of resources. We will use them in buildings, transportation and factories. They will reduce the waste of spoilage in food and pharmaceuticals.
Cyber-physical systems will account for an increasing proportion of building, factory and vehicle costs as well as value.
Enterprise implications Many products in 2020 will have a high cyber-physical content. We are already seeing this in cars the start-stop and temperature-control systems in engines have increased energy efciency. But construction, food production and pharmaceutical companies of the future must use these systems too. Cyber-physical systems will account for an increasing proportion of building, factory and vehicle costs as well as value.
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Security and privacy.
In a world where everyone is connected, where there are 1 trillion sensors and huge increases in the amount of data being stored and analyzed, todays security systems wont be able to protect our privacy or keep us safe from determined cyber attackers. By 2020, security systems will be more adaptive and dynamic in order to automatically thwart attacks from an ever-increasingly sophisticated threat landscape. Security systems will harness intelligence to proactively anticipate and take action against cyber threats they will nd risk before it nds you.
Security systems will harness intelligence to proactively anticipate and take action against cyber threats.
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I.3 Technology
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I.3 Technology
Enterprise implications Security and privacy have implications at the inter-government level. With ubiquitous sensors, precisely how much personal information should be stored or gathered? If everything is RFID tagged, for example, an individual can determine when and where you bought your clothes, your watch, your briefcase and your mobile device. Do you really want someone to be able to do that?
Whatever your decision, one thing is certain: The proportion of effort the enterprise has to spend on ensuring privacy and security is going to increase by 2020.
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See change or sea change?

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. Technology plays a vital role in the future of the enterprise, from the way products and services are developed to the way end users consume them. The Enterprise 20/20 community views technology as the source of both opportunities and challenges as we move ever closer to a truly connected society. HHHHHHHHHHHHH But what will spur the most innovative of technology changes? Will necessity breed technology changes, or vice versa? Community members viewed this question not as a chicken-or-egg problem, but rather an opportunity to discuss how technology and necessity will both be the problem and the solution.
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Rafal Los writes, Technology as of right now isn't the challenge."We're not lacking technologies, innovations, or inventions - it's the application thereof that is lacking... Nick Peterson believes technological change occurs more out of consumer desire than necessity, creating a vicious cycle of supply and demand. I think current technology will enable more and more demand for innovation based not on necessity of society, but based on the realization that society wants more and thus it is the desire that is driving the change more than a need, he writes. Charles Bess, meanwhile, believes neither necessity or technology itself will effect change; rather, it will be those closest to the technology either the creators or the users. When you look at the forcing change in a world dened by inertia, it is the passion of the change agent that starts the ball rolling, he writes. If they can gather others around that change it becomes a movement the market pays attention to movements.
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Which vertical will spawn greatest tech change?

Perhaps the larger question posed to the Enterprise 20/20 community, Which vertical market will spawn the greatest technological changes?, helped members synthesize their views on where technology will come from, and where it is going. While the larger verticals education, healthcare, nancial services and government were areas of focus for
Personally I see it as a lifecycle or a feedback system, which would make the answer "both, continuously," says Matt Groeninger, while
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community members, one dark horse the entertainment industry was tapped as a potential source of technological innovation.
health issues loom larger. They (we) will want affordable, effective,! good care. Charles Bess believes the answer lies with the industry that stands to lose the most. I'd look at what verticals will be under the greatest amount of pressure since pressure creates innovations (and diamonds). I doubt that it will be governments, since by their very nature they are a monopoly, he writes. The very nature of technology development from idea to curation and development relies on need and a willing consumer base to ensure success. While we cant predict what technology will be the next big thing we can dictate which technologies will be a success. !
When you look at the forcing change in a world dened by inertia, it is the passion of the change agent that starts the ball rolling. Charles Bess
My vote is for the media/entertainment industry to be the leaders, writes James McGovern. They have the best potential of helping visualize the challenges we face as a society, the ability to distribute the message to those who need to know and to target those who can help and to nally solve the awareness challenges of technologies already in existence but not widely known. I believe healthcare will bring about huge technology change."The industry is under pressure to curb costs; at the same time, America is graying, predicts community member nksinfo."The boomer cohort is beginning to retire from the workplace and to reach the age where!
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Enterprise
Driven by world trends, and supported by new technologies, enterprises in 2020 will differ physically and functionally from todays enterprises.
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I.4 Enterprise
Well work in virtual ofces on virtual teams.
The days of the grinding commute to the exurb campus or the prestigious downtown skyscraper are numbered. Concerns about fuel shortage and availability of land in megacities cause enterprises in 2020 to radically rethink their real-estate strategies. Ubiquitous cloud computing has removed the need for every business to have its own data center; bandwidth supports remote working; and the Millennial Generation is fully attuned to being productive and cooperative without constant physical interaction. As discussed in the technology section, the dynamic mosaics of specialists connected by collaboration tools become dominant in the enterprise. The ratio of full-time employees to contracted specialists will shift dramatically. Today we see IT departments of global corporations staffed by a mere dozen employees; what impact will we see on other business functions? Will we see the end of the monolithic corporation with hundreds of thousands of full-time employees?
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I.4 Enterprise
Well rely more on systems of engagement than systems of record.
In 2011, Geoffrey Moore published a paper detailing systems of engagement and their role in the future of ITi. By 2020, with demographic shifts, access to high bandwidth and embrace of social networking, systems of engagement will be mainstream, as enterprises seek to cultivate their relationships with customers around the globe. The real-time impact of social media on brand reputation and the instant feedback on concepts and launches will require full-time monitoring and analysis.
The real-time impact of social media on brand reputation and the instant feedback on concepts and launches will require full-time monitoring and analysis.
Already cited by several sources, some enterprises will appoint Chief Listening Ofcers, who will tap into social media and other communication platforms to better understand changing customer needs and tastes.
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I.4 Enterprise
Well use data in real-time and only preserve whats needed.

We will combine marketing, IT and legal expertise to identify what data must be stored; to determine how long and where to store the data; and to nd new strategies to reduce information lifecycle management costs.
In past decades, IT focused on accumulating more and more data in ERP/MRP/CRM systems and on deploying tools to mine it. Increasingly, sales and marketing teams will extract more value in the instant from transient data in social media, web, sensor and mobile interactions, and enterprises overall will offshore their data to the cloud.
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I.4 Enterprise
Well turn changing demographics into business opportunities.
The major demographic shifts of 2020 throw new sets of customer needs into focus. By employing managers with a cultural understanding of Brazil, Russia, India, China and so forth, and by capturing trends in social media, enterprises in 2020 will easily tap into the needs of these emerging middle classes. But the more digitally isolated and retired sectors of society represent an increasingly protable segment. Enterprises in 2020 need to tune in to the growing numbers of seniors to create products and services for people who may live in retirement for as long as they were in employment.
The more digitally isolated and retired sectors of society represent an increasingly protable segment.
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I.4 Enterprise
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I.4 Enterprise
Well nance, measure and value our businesses differently.
The enterprise of 2020 is fundamentally different in terms of tangible assets and direct control of labor. As the mosaic approach becomes the norm, the CFO must be able to report on the companys ability to deliver ongoing value with fewer in-house resources. Future stock market valuations will likely be inuenced by perceptions of an enterprises ability to inuence social media networks and capitalize on insight from them. Will we see some form of Klout score for enterprises? Finally, it will become increasingly important, and likely legislated, to measure and report transparently on total environmental impact of business operations.
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I.4 Enterprise
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I.4 Enterprise
Well manage talent in new ways.
In previous decades, leaders and HR managers focused on employee recruitment, development and long-term retention. In 2020, enterprises will shift focus to engaging uid groups of labor supertemps who will take on strategic projects for a relatively short period. The HR leaders of 2020 must address the following questions: Who are the rock-star supertemps? How do we ensure they keep data condential? How do we get them to come back for future projects? How do we feel about sharing our talent with rivals? HR will evolve into more of a community management role, doubtless supported by smart social
In 2020, enterprises will shift focus to engaging uid groups of labor - Supertemps.
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I.4 Enterprise
Well approach the IT function differently.

specialists, agilely designing and launching business processes that take advantage of new markets, or new opportunities to serve constituents in the public sector. Like the rest of the economy of 2020, value will come less from vertical operations and more from intelligent deployments of mosaics of services and individuals, using the latest cloud, mobile and social collaboration technologies on top of modern computing infrastructures.
Changes in the world, technology and enterprise of 2020 promise an interesting future for CIOs and IT leaders. Increasingly, as IT becomes embedded more deeply into the business, IT leaders will bring innovation to their enterprises by mastering a digital supply chain of services and
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When play becomes work

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. As the enterprise evolves to accommodate a global and multigenerational workforce as well as shifting cultural mindsets, the way we approach our work and, indeed, how we interact ! with others topped the list of conversations in the Enterprise 20/20 community.
With all the analytic capabilities available today, a basic behavioral understanding can be applied to corporate objectives and goals to adjust the behavior of the organization to align to a desired future. ... It is not about making things "fun" but instead of changing behavior in a goaloriented fashion, writes Charles Bess.
Games are a relatively inexpensive way to train people or run experiments and simulations. Charles Bess
Horia Slusanschi agrees: Games can be used to engage with customers or partners in new ways and draw them to your brand. Games can also be used in-house to develop better awareness of various ideas, habits or opportunities. Games are a relatively inexpensive way to train people or run experiments and simulations.
How we work: Will gamication change behavior?

Next-generation technologies and ways of working, such as gamication in the future enterprise, have captured the minds of community members, who look at such technology from different points of view. Some see gamication as childs play a ploy to pacify a generation brought up on constant praise while others see the technology as a simple, effective way to change behavior.
Or will gamication be childs play?

Dennis Kruegel, however, sees gamication differently. I think of an oldfashioned company with strict hierarchies and a command environment rather than a collaboration environment ... I can't imagine such a
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I can't imagine such a company applying gamication concepts internally, because for such a company the terms "play" and "work" don't t together. Either you play (that includes Social Media) or you work. Performing well in a job in such a company is not seen as a game, but as a duty. One thing is for certain: Change is a constant, and what may be seen a trivial or frivolous today may become an integral part of working tomorrow.
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Discussion
As we look to 2020, we are excited about the promise technology holds to help us address the opportunities and challenges in our rapidly changing world. As professionals, we have a responsibility to look forward, to play out scenarios and challenge one another to sharpen our vision.
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Coming from different countries, different industries, from inside and outside IT, we each bring a unique perspective to the question were proposing:
What will matter in 2020?
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I.5 Discussion
What will matter in 2020? In this introduction, weve highlighted some trends and shared some opinions. But what we really want to know is how are you envisioning the future? What shifts and trends matter in your industry? To your enterprise? To your profession?
During the next six months, the Enterprise 20/20 community will be diving deeply into domains that matter most to our professions. Well be looking horizontally across the boardroom, the apps team, the marketing department, the IT operations center and the CIO of 2020. And well be looking vertically at specic industries nancial services, telecommunications, public sector, manufacturing and others.
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The Enterprise 2020 wish list

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. Of all the discussions generated by the Enterprise 20/20 project, perhaps one of the liveliest focuses on the enterprise 2020 wish list. Answers were varied but a common theme emerged: To foster future success, enterprises must begin to operate with a mindset that benets its customers and its employees. Thomas Abel had one seemingly simple yet critical wish: Collaboration and cooperation of all stakeholders on any level(s) cross the organization(s) to make the full potential of all involved people available for the enterprise in 2020. Interestingly, technologies of any kind didnt show up on community members radars; rather, a change in corporate attitude and ways of doing business topped the list.
Transparency, reduced latency and a strategic vision. ... there is too much that is attributed to analyst demands and organizational politics and not enough focused on the common good, writes Charles Bess. If goals and initiatives are clearly stated and supported by employees and stakeholders, the futility of the quarterly pressures response can be seen for what it really is.
We need to cater for a global, distributed, diverse workforce, many of whom are working from small hubs or home ofce. Mark Wilkinson
Marc Wilkinson engaged a more global mindset: We need to cater for a global, distributed, diverse workforce, many of whom are working from small hubs or home ofce - this changes culture in many ways we are still learning, but interaction (and engagement), communication, collaboration are all at the heart of the problem, he writes. As we look at the comments from the Enterprise 20/20 community, its clear technology plays only part of the role in building a successful
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enterprise. It takes strong leadership, willingness to adapt to changing needs and a keen awareness of the global marketplace. Having such a foundation can only foster innovative, game-changing technology. !
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I.6 Sources
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1. http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_2020_1.html 2. The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, Homi Kharas, Brookings Institution, June, 2011 3. Guardian UK http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/mar/02/cctv-cameras-watching-surveillance 4. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20, May 2012 5a National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, 2030 Report http://www.nistep.go.jp/ 5b Guardian UK, Launching a New Kind of Warfare http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/oct/26/ guardianweeklytechnologysection.robots 5c BBC News http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6425927.stm # 5d BBC News http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6425927.stm # 5e National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, 2030 Report http://www.nistep.go.jp/ 5f Techcasts, Technology Forecast Results http://www.techcast.org/Forecasts.aspx# 5g ScienceDaily, Scientists Developing Robotic Hand of the Future http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110629083237.htm 5h Marshall Brain, Robotic Nation http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm 5i Guardian UK, Launching a New Kind of Warfare http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/oct/26/ guardianweeklytechnologysection.robots# 6. UMTS Forum, Mobile Trafc Forecasts 2010-20/20, January 2011 7. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20, May 2012 8. US Census Bureau 9. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20, May 2012
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a. Source: US Census Bureau b. Source: US Census Bureau c. Source: Frost and Sullivan, 50th Anniversay: 50 Predictions for 50, 2011 d. Source: UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund), Demographic, Social ! and Economic Indicators, 2007 e. Source: City Mayors, The worlds largest cities and urban areas in ! 2020, 2012 f. Source: IDC iView, The Digital Universe Decade Are You Ready? May 2010 g. Source: UMTS Forum, Mobile trafc forecasts 2010-2020 (commissioned ! research conducted by IDATE), January 2011 h. Source: Display Search, 3D Display Technology and Market Forecast ! Report, 2010 i. Source: Forbes Magazine, Systems of Engagement and the Future of IT, ! Geoffrey Moore, 2012
The views set forth in this publication are not necessarily those of Hewlett-Packard Company or its afliates (HP), but are the collective views of contributors to this publication, some of which have been curated by HP. Because the content of this publication is futurelooking, it, by denition, makes certain presuppositions and assumptions, some or all of which may or may not be realized.
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Outlook
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II.1 Outlook
Its an increasingly familiar pattern. A line of business leader approaches HP about a pressing need for assistance to drive a businessin one recent case, to help a company rapidly create social games. The customer is prepared to spend significant amounts of money to solve this problem. He also explains that he expects to use a number of digital suppliers to deliver these games, one of which may or may not be our central IT. Ouch.
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II.1 Outlook
To ensure that the business doesnt sideline the CIO, the entire IT department needs to take an active part in the innovation agenda and provide the enterprise with new points of differentiation.
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II.1 Outlook
By 2020, the role of the CIO will be transformed from the technology expert of yesteryear to that of a business engineer who is pivotal to the strategic growth of the enterprise. Continuing the path of automating business processes and adding a web front-end to existing products and services will not be enough.
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II.1 Outlook
This is the most exciting time in IT since the early 1980s when ! PCs came about and changed everything. Its an enormous ! sea change, says Dr. Robert N. Charette, president, ITABHI Corporation. This change involves moving from infrastructure builder to power broker. Tomorrows IT leaders will run smaller in-house teams while managing a mosaic of service providers. Driven by information and centered on innovation, their enterprises will demand instant flexibility and require protection from a variety of omnipresent security threats."How do you get there from here? Begin with an understanding of the forces at play.
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II.1 Community Discussion Highlights
Redening the CIO

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On this page we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The role of the CIO in 2020 is being heavily debated in the community, with many believing CIOs will become stewards of innovation within their companies and manage IT from the standpoint of driving both efciency and growth. Some members even believe the role of the CIO will become even more important as business processes map ever closer to IT, from marketing to employee recruitment ! and retention. CIOs must not only work at the strategy level, but also understand and relate to the details, notes Charles Bess. They must understand and preserve that which is optimally efcient, yet also muster the courage to nd what could work better. ... No other position in the modern enterprise requires the executive to excel in so many capacities.
Bastiaan van der Water believes effective CIOs should focus less on the business aspect of the position and more on the IT aspect. I see too many CIOs without proper IT education that choose for short term development and bleeding for long term. The CIO is the IT person, not the business person, he writes. IT is not something you can do if you can't nd work in your original line of education.
Changing skillsets, changing structures

Other community members see the role of the CIO evolving as technological shifts force changes within the enterprise. The CIO becomes mainly the builder and broker of IT based on collaboration, increased agility and faster revenue growth, writes Thomas Abel. ! The CIO must bridge legacy and as-a-service worlds.
The CIO must bridge legacy and ! as-a-service worlds. !

Thomas Abel
The better question is, What functional responsibilities does the organization need to address as they relate to technology?
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queries Joshua Brown. How many people, with what skill sets, would be necessary to cover all these responsibilities?" As enterprises evolve and job functions shift, some community members even question the need for a separate CIO. ... [T]here has been a great deal of discussion about the Chief Marketing Ofcer taking on many of the CIOs functions in some organizations or at least align the work otherwise both will become irrelevant, notes Charles Bess. Others, however, see the CIOs role becoming even more critical. From the ebook we can see that the CIO in 2020 will be responsible for a multitude of functions and capabilities, writes Gary White. Could this change the I in CIO from Information to Intelligence? !
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Challenges and Opportunities! for the CIO of 2020

A number of concurrent trends are shaping the IT department of the future, presenting both challenges and opportunities for CIOs. To stay relevant, CIOs must take action, and: Innovate with the business. Jettison all thats not core. Support mosaics of small companies and free agents. Create solutions that optimize mega-systems. Focus on the I in IT. Balance privacy and security with personalization and access. Manage IT performance versus risk.
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II.2 Challenges and Opportunities for the CIO of 2020
Innovate with the business
As 2020 approaches, CIOs must move from providing a business support function to becoming part of business teams and helping them create innovative products and services. CIOs who do not stage this transformation will become marginalized by cloud providers and business IT groups that will introduce high-level business processes, applications and data analysis development tools.
Mark Potts, CTO, HP Software, agrees: Its important to look at what the IT means, going forward, in terms of a responsibility rather than as an as an organization a construct, as companies look for greater agility, but the responsibilities for managing brokered hybrid delivery and the associated quality, risk and cost management wont be abdicated, and the CIO is likely to have to manage this across enterprise. Businesses are increasingly looking to IT to create differentiation and innovation for their products and services. Today, IT is only used to drive competitive advantage in 50 percent of enterprises.1 (See Figure 1.) Patrick Dixon, the British futurist, believes that the board of the future will have a CTO on it to ensure that technology is applied wherever possible to create competitive advantage.2 This trend is not about IT partnering with the business. Its about IT professionals becoming members of business teams and being measured and rewarded in the same way as the business teams with whom they work.
Today, IT is only used to drive competitive advantage in 50 percent of enterprises

As computing becomes increasingly ubiquitous, the IT department will naturally spread across the corporation, says Charette.
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I dont know how you talk about an IT department any morewere now all part of IT in a way, says Charette. IT must be committed to the same goals as the business itself. A recent Economist survey found that in 16 percent of enterprises, the CIO doesnt set IT strategy he or she is only consulted once the strategy is set. This must change.
In order for IT to become a valuable member of business teams, the CIO of 2020 needs the tools and the people to provide a number of critical services Business processes: IT consultants need to be able to quickly design and modify business processes, many of which will call on external cloud services to perform process tasks. Multi-device applications: Applications that are able to understand both voice and gestures and synchronize across the landscape of devices will be common. The CIO of 2020 needs to put in place skilled people and systems to create such applications. Real-time analytics solutions: IT will need to be able to create ! real-time analytics solutions quickly for the business. This must include not only familiar structured data but also unstructured data such as information generated by social media interactions, and the sensor data that will be pouring into the enterprise.
A recent Economist survey found that in 16 percent of enterprises, the CIO doesnt set IT strategy he or she is only consulted once the strategy is set.
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SaaS: Enterprises are already asking, Can we change the applications we currently provide for our customers into SaaS services? This will be a strong trend through 2020, resulting in many enterprises offering applications as a service for their customers. We may see the part of IT that manages such SaaS services get spun off as a revenue-generating entity within the enterprise. Cloud services for smart products: Products like cars, refrigerators, health monitors, shopping carts and buildings will become increasingly intelligent. They will call home to cloud services provided by enterprises. The IT department of 2020 will need tools and skills to provide valuable back-end services for these smart products. In order to provide these services to business teams, IT needs to focus more than it ever has before.
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II.2 Challenges and Opportunities ! for the CIO of 2020
Jettison all thats not core
Geoffrey Moore (author of Crossing the Chasm and Inside the Tornado) has a model for the use of cloud. Low-cost economies are entering the international sphere on the basis of cost. If you are in a high-cost economy, you must therefore differentiate to sustain margins, ! he says.4 Many global enterprises are taking advantage of this trend by shifting hiring and operations to low-cost economies. But they must also have a maniacal focus on differentiation, as cost advantages disappear rapidly with globalization. Increasingly, it is the thinking that IT brings to the table that enables organizations to create differentiated, innovative products and services. In order to do this, however,"IT needs to become hyper-focused on innovation and ofoad everything that might distract from this goal.
IT needs to become hyper-focused on innovation and offload everything that distracts from this goal.
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II.2 Challenges and Opportunities ! for the CIO of 2020

Focus on core is not a new concept. Many consumer electronics companies have exited the manufacturing business altogether and now just focus on what differentiates themdesign and marketing (and the ecosystems around their products). Car manufacturers focus on those elements of design and production where they feel they can differentiate, leaving commodity items to others. Divest yourself of non-core processes, Moore says. Such processes and applications might include payroll, expenses, travel, email and other communication tools. Provided we can get these functions from a cloud provider at a level of performance, availability, security and cost that is acceptable, we should jettison them from our IT departments. By 2020, SaaS and Business Process as a Service (BPasS) providers will be the norm, and most development and testing environments will be delivered by cloud providers, as will many production environments.
Divest yourself of non-core processes.! - Geoffrey Moore, author, Crossing the Chasm and Inside the Tornado!
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In September 2003, Nicholas Carr of the Harvard Business Review wrote an article titled Why IT doesnt matter anymore. He argued that IT just provided infrastructure and that it didnt provide differentiation. He said that many industries went through the same evolution they started by delivering a competitive advantage, but soon become an operational risk, and something we all just used. He cited electricity as an example. No-one uses electricity as a competitive advantage, but a potential cut in the supply of electricity represents a business risk. While provocative, we would argue the facts show otherwise. Sure, IT does a lot of things that do not differentiate the business, but many enterprises use IT effectively to differentiate. No one would say that iTunes didnt differentiate the iPod (or, to put it another way, the product was the combination of the iPod and iTunes). But Nicholas Car was partly right. Unless IT is ruthless about getting someone else to provide the non-differentiated services, it is going to struggle to have the focus to differentiate the products the enterprise sells.
Success in a cloud-based world hinges on service provider management, or digital supplier management. CIOs will need a better way to choose digital suppliers because by 2020, there will be thousands of cloud providers vying for their attention. They must keep a constant watch over their portfolio of suppliers. How well do they perform? Do they adhere to compliance standards? What do they cost? This need for supplier cost monitoring moves automatic and systematic service costing from a nice-to-have to an essential discipline that the CIO must develop within his or her department. Just as the IT department of 2020 will move much of its current work to third parties, the enterprise will use third parties in its project teams.
Unless IT is ruthless about getting someone else to provide the nondifferentiated services, it is going to struggle to have the focus to differentiate the products the enterprise sells.
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Support mosaics of small companies and free agents
We will also need to ensure the privacy and security of such teams so that they can be set up easily and quickly. This concept has already happened with physical supply chains (e.g., PCs) and in some instances digital supply chains (e.g., movies). We will see this concept of a digital supply chain increasing within IT. Enterprises will link together groups of afliates. These supply chain mosaics will then create, produce and deliver products and services to a global audience. Everything we have talked about here is available today. But by 2020, enterprises will have fewer employees and use of these mosaics of afliates will be routine. Enterprises will need to derive competitive advantage from having more productive and innovative mosaics than their competitors. Such differentiation will come from better business processes and collaboration systems to support these mosaics. There is a strong parallel between mosaics of people and mosaics of cloud-based IT services. Increasingly, if people and services are available to competing enterprises, orchestrating the mosaics more effectively than competitors will provide the advantage.
An increasing number of business teams are built around people who dont work for the enterprise. The enterprise of 2020 will form project teams from these mosaics of small"focused"companies and free agents, so that the team has the best people available for each role."(See Figure 2.) Such project teams are not permanent. They come together to do a particular task and then dissolve and reshape for the next challenge. Another trend we will continue to see develop is the distributed nature of teams. Today, such teams exist in order to take advantage of lower costs. However, as developing countries increase in wealth, teams will need to include members from these countries in order to create products and services that are competitive and innovative in ! these key markets. Both the small free agent mosaic effect and the increasing distribution of teams will require better collaboration tools."While there is a degree of collaboration provided for such distributed mosaic teams today, by 2020, this collaboration will include high-quality video for all team members, effective joint creativity tools and the ability to create secure document workows easily in the cloud.
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Create solutions that optimize mega-systems
Over the next decade all manner of systemsfrom cities to supply chainswill increase in complexity. Additionally, well have more and more detailed knowledge of the individual components that make up these systems owing in real time. This will mean more data married to more knowledge about that data. Urban planners will not only know more about a citys trafc congestion, but they also will have the ability to respond to trafc patterns and create fewer delays automatically. Plant managers will be able to monitor production levels to create greener manufacturing systems. Supply chains will have fewer delays and less waste and theft. Insurance companies will micro-charge based, for example, on who is driving a car and where they are driving.
The CIO of 2020 will need to create solutions that optimize transportation, utilities, policing and crime prevention in cities as well as mobile payments, supply chains, factories and buildings. Accordingly, the best IT shops will be world-class integrators and enablers of this technology. The sensory data coming from these mega-systems, and the evergrowing amount of unstructured data from social media, also present challenges for the business. (See Figure 3.) The CIO of 2020 must help the business to gain insight from all this data. I see the CIOs job as being the Chief Information Ofcergetting the needed information out to the people who need to make decisions. Its getting back to the original view of what the CIO was, says Charette.
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Focus on the I in IT
By 2020, the amount of data we consume will have increased significantly. There will be a mass of sensor data and even more unstructured data, coming mainly from social media interactions. ! (See Figure 4.) IDC estimates a 44 times increase in data from ! 2009 to 2020.5 There is no way to process all this data and gain insight from it without IT's help."The CIO of 2020 will need to put in place systems that help the business in two ways: 1.The enterprise will rely on computers to know whats normal and alert us to anomalous situations. For example, computers may perform routine analysis of patients in hospitals alerting humans only when something unexpected occurs. 2.Computers will help us gain insight from data and visualize data in new ways."We believe that we have a long way to go in our analysis and presentation of complex data. Even today, the business feels massively lacking in data analysis capabilities. In a recent Economist survey, 75 percent of C-Suite executives said they would be able to make better decisions if they had the tools to gain insights from the mass of data they owned.6
But as analysis capabilities become more sophisticated, companies that use them will develop a leading edge. The more analysis you can do across all the data at your disposal, and the faster you can perform that analysis, opens up huge opportunities"and insight"for companies, says Potts. From a business perspective, its"faster"feedback on new product/service"introductions,"customer sentiment,"threat analysis and anomaly detection,"automated actions and remediation"and so on.
In the recent Economist survey, 75 percent of C-Suite executives said they would be able to make better decisions if they had the tools to gain insights from the mass of data they owned.
With the increase in data volumes will come higher demands in terms of privacy and security. For example, if everything we are wearing has an RFID tag on it, anyone could tell us with a simple scan where and when we bought the items."This is not an ideal situation.
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Zoom in
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Balance privacy and security with personalization and access
Personalization should not be about being able to personalize each application and service I deal with,"it should be more about me saying how I want to interact with the cloud and the apps and services. Why do I need to keep creating accounts and setting preference, pins and passwords every time I need a new service? This is a quote from one of HPs internal forums on the future of security. It sparked 14 pages of debate. End-users don't want to worry about how they can nd and connect to their information and services. They just want to get to what they need quickly and without thinking about all the stuff that happens ! in the background. "
As the workforce becomes more tech-savvy, everyone has an opinion about what IT should support. Todays young professionals have lived their whole lives with computers. They know a lot about technology, says Craig Flower, senior vice president of IT, HP. They might not think about things at scale, but their experiences are valid, useful and a key source of input. The challenge for the CIO is to stay open to new ideas, but implement things in a disciplined way so you can manage them in this new environment.
The challenge for the CIO is to stay open to new ideas, but implement things in a disciplined way so you can manage them in this new environment.! - Craig Flower, senior vice president ! of IT, HP
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Users want effortless, secure interaction with all of their devices, applications, content and social networks, and all of this should be easily available from whichever device they choose to use at any time."Users want their devices to understand their current context (work, home, sleeping, traveling, with friends, children, etc.) and be able to represent their interestswithout having to worry about privacy and security. Todays rewall-based security models need to evolve in order to exibly and securely accommodate supplier mosaics. Security needs to be designed in at the service level as well as at the network and infrastructure levels.
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Security needs to be designed in at the service level as well as at the network and infrastructure levels.
By 2020, even more IT time will be spent on privacy and security because even more data will be available to enterprises about our specic actions, and they will have a greater ability to gain insight from that data. Smart Grid technology is confronting this issue right now. While detailed power usage information allows better management of power supply, the data gives detailed information about what people are doing in their homes, and this could be misused. In other words, a smart device is generating data the privacy of which has to be managed. California recently became the rst US state to legislate on this.7
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Manage IT performance versus risk
The business has always struggled to measure the performance of IT. By 2020, this will be even harder because of the mosaic nature of everything IT will do. How will enterprises measure and manage the return on their IT investments if their IT assets are no longer all located in data centers under central CIO control? Will the CIO of central IT have responsibility for IT Performance Management across all areas of IT spending, even those that span various business IT groups and service providers? If so, how will such a federated management and optimization ! scheme work? We live in a risk ecology where everything is interconnected in risk termswhere one small change in one area can have massive impact on another, says Charette. Were moving from risk management to uncertainty management. The CIO of 2020 will need an excellent service costing solution that understands multi-supplier sourcing and the constantly changing nature of service composition.
We live in a risk ecology where everything is interconnected in risk terms where one small change in one area can have massive impact on another. Were moving from risk management to uncertainty management.- Dr. Robert N. Charette, president, ITABHI Corporation
With all these third-party suppliers, the role of risk management can only increase in importance. Service performance, security and state compliance and change control all present risks to the business, but in a cloud-sourced world, the CIO no longer has control over these aspects. It is vital that the CIO of 2020 has risk monitoring systems that understand the multi-supplier nature of the services they are monitoring.
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The best CIOs of 2020 will be able to give robust assessments of service risk, rather than sharp intakes of breath through clenched teeth. A CIO who can give a statistically sound assessment of risk can become a trusted member of the business team. A recent Economist study found that only 50 percent of CIOs have an understanding of the business and IT risks of using new technology. In fact, 25 percent of ! C-Suite executives felt that their CIOs grasp of the risk was poor.8 How will the CIO of 2020 be measured? Will it be effectiveness and reliability of the business process? User experience? Speed or agility of IT to business requests? A number of ex-CIOs believe that IT departments must move into the business. In doing so, they must take on the same measures as the business teams to which they now belong. They must live or die by those business measures like the other members of the team. This means that the CIO of 2020 will be managing a complex set of measuresmeasures against IT-related things like user experience performance, but also measures against pure business metrics to which their people contribute.
The best CIOs of 2020 will be able to give robust assessments of service risk, rather than sharp intakes of breath through clenched teeth.
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Deconstructing the opportunities

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On this page we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The Enterprise 20/20 community believes CIOs will have to evolve to ensure companies are successful in 2020 and beyond. Many of the challenges and opportunities discussed in this section resonated with community members; however, differences of opinions emerged regarding how deeply such opportunities and challenges would impact the CIOs ofce and role.
car can now tell you when the oil needs changing more reliably than when an enterprise application needs intervention. However, he also believes CIOs must take a hard look at their current processes and nd ways for their internal operations to be nancially benecial to the enterprise. Will we still continue to observe the swinging pendulum that centralization vs decentralization brings? Centralization is almost always argued under the guise of cost savings and elimination of redundancies in order to gain efciencies. Decentralization has an equally strong argument that focuses less on efciencies and slants towards agility and effectiveness, he notes. Cloud is one area of opportunity CIOs must pursue further, community members agree, but Doug Nelson believes cloud still is too nascent a technology for the enterprise to realize true benets -- and probably wont be fully baked by 2020. Considering the SaaS and Cloud realm is still what I consider to be an emerging market, I don't think we can [assume much of the IT operations will have moved to the cloud by 2020], he writes.
On the horizon
Community member James McGovern believes the growth of smart technologies should be on CIOs radars as they look to improve their internal operations and take their own products and services further into the market. Smart devices that have built-in self-diagnosis will certainly be on the top [of CIOs priority lists], he writes. Your
Larger companies, less agility?

To some community members, the opportunities of the CIO in 2020 will depend not so much on the agility of the CIOs company but how the company does its business -- or what community member manjit 20/20 calls the fundamentals.
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Agility is a key reality for organizations today, but it is not the fundamental thing."The fundamentals were known to a couple of guys called Hewlett and Packard -- who happen to be 21st Century thinkers born in the 20th Century, manjit 20/20 writes. Just" because we are capable of thinking in the 21st Century does not mean that we are capable of thinking like they do. ... the struggles we face today are agile, visible, uncertain and surprising." Who should really care about tomorrow, if you can't face up to today?
more revenue or differentiate an organization in the marketplace. It is what gets done with the information that makes a difference. When it comes to IT spending, More often than not the marketing or nance departments were the driving force behind ... projects (and, subsequently, the main beneciaries) ... So, you could say that the CIO focuses on the I in IT, but the CFO/CCO will actually use it, Marin notes.
Agility is a key reality for organizations today, but it is not the fundamental thing. !
manjit 20/20
Charles Bess and Daniel Marin both agree with manjit 20/20, but believe CIOs need to nd a way to make their companies more agile. Shouldn't [CIOs] be focused on the actions that the information can enable? Bess asks. The CIO needs to reduce the time for action for the enterprise (in part and as a whole). Information may be the fuel for decisions, but having more information alone will not create
Fig
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The IT Department of 2020

Given the environment thats taking shape, what will the IT department of 2020 look like? And how can a CIO lead his or her team to the future state that will be required to thrive? The most extreme view says that central IT will become a shell that looks after old legacy applications that no one else wants to touch. All the funding from the business will go through business IT groups that will orchestrate processes out of cloud services.
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II.3 The IT Department of 2020
The IT Department of 2020
While this could happen, we believe that ITs value to the business has every chance of increasing, not decreasing. Many industry experts, including Marc Andreessen, believe that the product and service differentiation offered by software will continue to increase.9 While cloud services will provide non-core applications and other foundation environments, differentiation will come from the business processes, the applications and the data analysis provided on top of ! this foundation. One step that will help is having a clear frame of reference for evaluating new opportunities and requests. There is going to be constant noise in the system, so its important to have a frame of reference against which you are vetting new ideas and determining the best way to implement them consistent with that reference architecture, says HPs Flower. As the leader, you have to listen constantly, make quick decisions and then execute like crazy. People are going to challenge your decisions, but you have to keep pace.
Another potential advantage for IT is the shift away from the requirements lifecycle toward standardized apps. iPhones and other devices have trained us to browse whats available, rather than dictate requirements. The App Store mentalityIll know if I like it when I see itwill enable IT to move faster and show the business whats possible, then move rapidly into production. This trend, combined with a move toward the cloud, represents a huge opportunity for IT to become more proactive than ever before.
The App Store mentality Ill know if I like it when I see it will enable IT to move faster and show the business whats possible, then move rapidly! into production.
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2
!
The 2020 IT Department Structure
The IT department of 2020 will be smaller in terms of number of people than that of today. This is because many of the non-core applications and some of the production systems operations responsibility will have gone out to cloud providers. Also, fewer people will be required to operate the development and test systems.! However, CIOs who have gained the trust of the business will get no less funding than they do today. In fact, we believe the value that IT can deliver to the business is nowhere near its maximum.! ! As IT becomes less about operate and more about generate differentiation for the business, the link between the CIO and lineof-business peers can only increase. And the link will further tighten because the CIOs teams will be measured against the same metrics as the business teams are measured.! ! What skills does this new role require, and how does the CIO get her team to this future state?
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How do the CIO and the IT department get to 2020?
Many businesses today are poorly served by data analysis. As the amount of data that needs to be analyzed increases dramatically, this will only get worse. An IT department that can supply analysts to set up data analysis will be valued by the business. The architecture of 2020 will be multi-device applications talking to back-end cloud services. IT will need people who can create compelling applications that work in such an environment. The business is looking for innovation through ITinnovative business process, applications and data analysis. People with creative talent will be valued.
Lets look at the skills the CIO of 2020 needs to develop in the IT team: The CIO of 2020 might want to take a page out of the book of the modern laptop or car manufacturer. Both of these comprise components from third parties, allowing the manufacturer to focus on what they do best. In both of these examples, the ability to run an efcient and responsive supply chain is important. The IT supply chain of 2020 will be mainly digital supplier-based, however. The CIO will need risk analystspeople who can look at a services digital supply chain and measure and manage the risk it presents to the business. The business consumes business processes. IT will need good business process analysts and modelers. A recent Economist study found that while 40 percent of C-Suite executives felt that using IT to streamline business processes was key, only 28 percent of CIOs agreed with them.
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By 2020, the software content of everything will have! increasedrefrigerators, all forms of transport, buildings and even supermarket trolleys according to the futurist Patrick Dixon. Forrester predicts that soon, cars will routinely contain 200 million lines of code and 70 processors. Thats almost as many as the new Airbus 380. Demand for good software programmers will be high, and this will compete with the CIOs need for smart analysts. But the 2020 CIO will have a lot to offer: high-level business process, application development and data mining tools that can make a real difference to the business.
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Evolution, revolution
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. As CIOs evolve their functions to foster a more agile and focused business environment, the IT department also will need to change, community members agree. Of particular note: the way IT departments are and should be viewed in this new era of opportunity.
Will we nally embrace people over process? asks James McGovern. But Nicole Walker believes the change should come from within. I think there needs to be a fundamental shift in the mind of the IT organization to understand they are a SERVICE, she writes. All the IT offerings and deliverables need to be viewed as a-service to the business."...The information and technology is only valuable to us if it is served. McGovern, however, disagrees with Walkers assertion: Any time the mindset of a SERVICE is adopted, it tends to declare one person as a master while making the other subservient. Whenever you do this, you may align nancial interests but not address true success criteria based on motivation. Kinda like not insulting the chef in a restaurant while he is cooking your food, he writes.
Core vs. chore

Joshua Brown believes the issue may lie with the concept of core systems. Who gets to dene what constitute core systems? he asks. I would say that the business denes what is core; the role of IT is to support business needs through technology." The consumerization of IT, the shadow IT department, BYOD...these are all market responses to IT's inability to be agile in the way that business requires it. Community member Sydney Sloan believes the technologies employees use every day should be considered core systems.
Smarter, faster
Again, the topic of agility was a major conversation driver, as community members pointed out the struggles CIOs face in making their enterprises more agile yet ensuring their employees get what they need to do their jobs. Agile methods are the only thing that acknowledges the challenges in getting IT staff to collaborate in ways that benet the business.
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The role of IT is to support business needs through technology. !

Joshua Brown
IT still bears the burden of governance and data protection, and I personally cant see the complete outsourcing of core communications functions like email, collaboration systems and social which hopefully are seamlessly integrated so one can better manage communications and streamline all the information out there, Sloan postulates. But Piet Loubser sees a future in which outsourced IT will be the norm. What we call IT today (mostly corporate IT) will be changing. It is possible that core or central IT might focus on different things than for instance IT roles or even IT skills embedded in the business, he notes.
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Conclusion
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II.4 Conclusion
However, there is another point of view. Cloud frees up CIOs to have IT is a young profession. Compared to other professions, its still their people work in business teams, innovating and creating evolving rapidly, and there are a variety of models in place across competitive advantage for the enterprise. industries, from entirely in-sourced to almost completely outsourced. There wont be a one-size-ts all model in 2020 either. Different Through a series of smart choices, CIOs can guide their IT companies always will deploy, use and manage IT in different ways. Coming from different countries, different industries, departments along the innovation path. But in a few years, companies will become more selective about what from inside and outside IT, we each bring a unique they outsource, and they will engage in more multisourcing as the enterprises they enable move disaggregated business models. perspective to theto question were proposing: Some say that cloud will move the power away from IT and to the business and business IT. Thats certainly one way of looking at it, and that may happen to some CIOs.
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Debating the CIO of 2020

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On this page we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. Its a fact: We are facing a brave new world of enterprise technology, and the old ways of doing business no longer will work. More than ever, the CIO role will have a different meaning as IT reaches every facet of the enterprise. The Enterprise 20/20 community has ! some ideas.
Perhaps we need CIOs to be able to inspire communities that take a systemic perspective and focus on horizontal value streams, eliminating any and all obstacles and wastes that prevent a smooth delivery of value to their clients, writes Horia Slusanschi. That's in contrast with attempting to make numbers for each division/department, when a dozen divisions/departments might be required to collaborate to deliver one product or service. Markus Schafer sees an expanded vision of the CIO. The CIO has to be an innovative person who can see the demand of IT services from a customer perspective. He has to act as a mediator between "wishful thoughts" from the customer side and what is realistic and doable from a technical point of view. Trends should be set rather than followed, he writes. The CIO should ... not act as IT provider, but in a role of IT governance: lead the company by creating a vision on what can be done and what should not be done. notes Dirk Struyf. Be the advocate of the possibilities and opportunities technology brings, but at the same time ensure corporate assets (sensitive information, corporate image) are protected.
Fitting the prole

But what will the CIO of 2020 look like, and what will the CIO be tasked with? Will the CIO sit at the center of hub-and-spoke universe, managing the different outsourced applications and technologies used by an enterprise effectively being the man behind the curtain? Or will the CIO be more involved in dening the technology directions for all facets of the enterprise?
Looking within
Sometimes, experience can be the best teacher, and the Enterprise 20/20 community believes effective CIOs will be ones who learn from the
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successes of others. I believe the CIO should learn from manufacturing and how they interact with their suppliers and manage them to ensure protability, availability/quality of service and risk mitigation. writes Christian Verstraete. As companies increasingly rely on their suppliers, having this well under control is critical. What will happen in a world where one company has a model that allows any employee to help a customer with a challenge they are facing while another the employee is simply a referral source that simply routes messages to others. Which do you predict will have better client satisfaction? asks James McGovern. There are more than a few" examples of frustrated customers complaining on Twitter about a problem they are having and the routing model simply is too slow in order to counter any ill-effects that delayed responses beg for.
information with intelligence already baked in and then it needs to be interactive to receive feedback and re-compute/calculate. However the name changes or the role evolves, the CIO will face myriad opportunities and, most likely, an equal number of challenges. What do you see in store for the CIO of 2020?
Whats in a name?
Job roles change, why not job titles? Community members posed this question, which sparked comments on both sides of the fence. All, however, agreed that the CIO of 2020 will have a vastly different effect on the enterprise than today. What if we had a CIIIO Ofcer?"asks Nicole Walker. I think information becomes very powerful to revenue when it is Intelligent and Interactive (bi-directional or transactional). The business needs
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II.5 Sources
Text
1. The C-Suite Challenges IT: New Expectations for Business Value. Economist Intelligence Unit 2. Patrick Dixon: Futurewise, Location 897 of 6861 3. The C-Suite Challenges IT: New Expectations for Business Value. Economist Intelligence Unit 4. Just the Essentials: Focus on the Core (33:44 min), http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=hM4oDJ0slAQ 5. IDC - IVIEW, The Digital Universe Decade Are You Ready? May 2010, by John Ganz and David Reinsel, sponsored by EMC Corporation 6. The C-Suite Challenges IT: New Expectations for Business Value. Economist Intelligence Unit 7. http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PUBLISHED/FINAL_DECISION/140369.htm 8. Charette, Robert. Carware, IEEE Spectrum, February, 2009. 9. Software is eating the world, Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2011 10. The C-Suite Challenges IT: New Expectations for Business Value. Economist Intelligence Unit 11. http://www.globalchange.com/ 12. IEEE Spectrum, February, 2009
Graphics
Fig. 1- IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, May 2012 Fig. 2a- Bureau of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook 2010-2020 Projections Fig. 2b- OECD Database, UNESCO and National Statistics websites for Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa Fig. 3- Source: HP Labs Fig. 4- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exabyte Fig. 5- The C-Suite Challenges IT: New Expectations for Business Value. Economist Intelligence Unit Fig. 6- IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, May 2012 Fig. 7- IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, May 2012
The views set forth in this publication are not necessarily those of HewlettPackard Company or its afliates (HP), but are the collective views of contributors to this publication,some of which have been curated by HP. Because the content of this publication is future-looking, it, by denition, makes certain presuppositions and assumptions, some or all of which may or may not be realized.
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Outlook
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III.1 Outlook
As a wheelhouse of innovation, the Development Center takes different form factors in different enterprises and industries. Enterprises that make physical products, like automobile manufacturers, may deconstruct the concept of Dev Center into product design centers, product development centers and software development centers, and bring teams of specialists together in pursuit of a better end-to-end experience for customers. ! In other industries, the design and delivery of applications is the ! core focus of development as apps are a way of capturing ! unique IP to differentiate business process and ! customer experience.
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III.1 Outlook
Facing forward to 2020, how should we think about the way enterprises will organize for innovation? What will the Dev Center of 2020 look like in all its forms will designers, developers and testers coalesce in physical locations or will they design, develop and test as virtual teams? As physical products increasingly become more intelligent by embedding software, how will Dev Centers for products resemble or be different from Dev Centers for apps and other forms of software? Share your comments with the Enterprise ! 20/20 community.
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III.1 Outlook
We will begin our first iteration of this chapter focusing on a topic anyone with a smartphone will tell you theyre an expert in: apps. To imagine! how well need to organize Dev Centers for the apps that will power our enterprises, products, experiences and lives in 2020, it helps to stand back and look at the massive change were seeing in the domain of apps.
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III.1 Community Discussion Highlights
Dev Center! Predictions and! Prognostications

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. Dev Center 20/20 generated a wealth of conversations within the Enterprise 20/20 community. Many of the conversations focused on tomorrows implications on current challenges, including ! the evolution of application development and the intersection between business models and application development. One idea everyone could agree on: the Dev Center of 2020 will be vastly different than it is today.
automation assisted approach to ensuring the i's are dotted and the t's are crossed. Antone Withers sees a similar path for applications, but believes the underlying technologies will drive much of the change in the way apps are created and delivered. I see that applications are being broken down into business processes and organizations today are looking at consuming a business process rather than building their own, he writes. As we move more towards cloud-delivered business processes what organizations are looking for is an easier way to consume a business process, pay for it and they really dont care about the technology all they care about is how the business process will add value within their organization. But how might the way applications are developed impact the way company delivers its products and services? Could large enterprise apps give way to independently built custom apps? See ... the Open Manufacturing community - their vision is to make it possible for people to build stuff locally, and inexpensively. Download a specication, get together with a few local buddies and build your own tractor/sawmill/windmill/etc for your physical community, notes Hora Slusanschi.
Death to apps?
[In the future], the whole concept of an application may be obsolete, writes Charles Bess. "Applications are turning into an orchestrated aggregation of services. ... We're moving ... into much more of an
The mainframe is dead or is it?

And, by the same token, will mainframe applications go the way of the dinosaur? Community members were divided.When I joined HP
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32 years ago, I was told the mainframe was dead, everything was going to move to the mini. Well, you know the story. The mainframe is still alive and kicking, writes Christian Verstraete. Isn't a cloud really a mainframe? It's an environment in which you and many others submit services and get them executed. I actually believe a lot of what we are doing today in the virtualization and automation space is actually copying the mainframe environment. Kevin Light asks, Isn't the broader question, 'why would any enterprise take the risk (nancial, organizational, etc.) of 'transforming' themselves via an application modernization project when their legacy systems effectively support the business'? As an example, how many successful ERP projects have there been over the past 10 years that have had a smooth transition from legacy frameworks to modern system architectures?"I can't think of too many; however, the results of their failure to meet expectations are all over the press. Indeed, the future of apps is still too murky to predict; however, apps will continue to play a vital role in the Dev Center of 20/20 community members believe. Go to the next Community Discussion page
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Rise of the Planet of the Apps
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III.2 Rise of the Planet of the Apps
If Marc Andreessen is right, and software is eating the world, then the people who design, write, test and manage software are looking at a busy future. Increasingly, these people are all of us.1 How so? Today it still may be possible to nd pockets in the world economy where software is not yet the fabric for everything that happens. By 2020, however, the reach of apps will be universal. Already, premium automobiles require tens of millions of lines of code2 more than ber-apps such as Facebook and Samsung now offers a Wi-Fi-enabled fridge with built-in apps.3 So what will life look like on the planet of the apps? The days of consuming a heavyweight application (in features and in client-side logic) that is run from a desk-based machine are going fast. In tandem, our expectations are changing of what it takes to build an application, of the sorts of people who are involved, and of the shape and behavior of the thing they (we) produce.
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III.2 Rise of the Planet of the Apps
Three concepts are shaping the way apps are built and used in the enterprise:
Consumerization:
the ongoing evolution from system-centricity to user-centricity
Commodication:
the move away from centralized planning of every IT app, toward ! a borderless environment that harnesses the citizen developer
Computing everywhere:
embedding software in everything from automobiles to appliances They have a certain ring today. But by 2020, these three Cs will likely have lost their buzz and become the norm for the way apps are built and used. To prepare for the shift, software producers and IT applications teams need to rethink quality, security, measurement and the user experience.
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Healthy relationships, better apps

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The Enterprise 20/20 community, for the most part, embraces the idea of an app-centric society, yet understands many changes must occur before the development process works seamlessly and without issue. In particular, the relationship between apps designer and apps developer must evolve to create a more uid process.
community members believe the designer could have as large a role to play in app development as the developer. If you think about ... mobile development at large, the king of the hill is no longer functionality but usability, writes James McGovern. No longer can the designer create a good looking composite picture to dene the user interface, throw it over the shoulder and expect the developer to recreate it using code. The process has to be simpler and optimized for an efcient two-way collaboration between the designer and developer. Community member manjit 20/20 is in agreement: The new way of thinking isn't just about business to I.T. alignment but across the new product development process, from idea conception to consumer experience, he writes.
Developer and designer
When discussing application development trends, many community members believe the future of app development must include a healthy dose of design work to ensure a positive user experience. In fact, some
Code-wrangling
But as designers become more integral to the process, so, too, will be ways of harnessing the explosion of code and the data gleaned from these apps. Auto software developers face the same dilemma as those designing ghter jet cockpits where too much is going on., notes John Dodge. Billions of lines of codes won't matter a whit unless the driver uses ! the app.
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Auto software developers face the same dilemma as those designing ghter jet cockpits where too much is going on., notes John Dodge. Billions of lines of codes won't matter a whit unless the driver uses the app.
changes with 30 to 60 days to release." We need to learn and improve our processes to avoid this level of insanity! The whys and hows of the Dev Center 20/20 are subject to change based on individual points of view. The application-centric world we live in today will impact much of how business processes will ! evolve, however.
New ways of doing

As the evolution of the Dev Center spurs conversations among Enterprise 20/20 community members, most agreed it is time to overhaul the processes by which projects are undertaken and managed. Or, as community member James McGovern terms them: Death March projects. There will be ... as long as delivery dates are set for projects before the scope is nalized, and the people in charge continue to agree to take on risks which they do not understand, noted Terry White. So how do you counter this?"Change from a project mentality to a continuous delivery mentality."Change from a develop-and-throw-itover-the-wall-to-operate work model to a DevOps work model. Doug Nelson agrees: There are methodologies currently available such as "Agile" which targets release of the most important items using an iterative approach."However, we have continued to use the "Boil the Ocean" method even while using "Agile" by forcing huge small projects into "Agile" with very large iterations."The goal should be"Agile" with very large iterations."The goal should be small iterative
Fig Fig
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The Three Cs of! Apps 20/20
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III.3 The Three Cs of Apps 20/20
To appreciate the shifts that will transpire over the next ve to seven years, think of the application lifecycle as a supply chain. At the highest level, the job of this supply chain is to capture the best business idea from a pool of investment candidates, embed it in the right kind of software (architecturally exible, user-friendly), and then feed useful information from the software (e.g., usage, performance, user satisfaction, stability) back into the business for future planning and/or remediation of problems. Many of the changes driving Apps 20/20 are a response to the overriding problem of the app supply chain it is too slow, too fraught with barriers and bottlenecks and too prone to losing sight of the original business idea for any enterprise to bet on it. And in the modern enterprise, that is exactly what applications are: a bet-the-business undertaking. Consumerization, commodication and computing everywhere represent a coming world of borderless IT, in which the enterprise discovers increasingly creative ways to go over, around or straight through the old supply chain barriers.
Consumerization: good news you really are the center of the universe
Employees often understand consumerization as the rise of Bring Your Own Device (BYOD). But from the software perspective, consumerization means a shift from system-centricity to user-centricity.
In the past, the core was what was the key and the edge had to adapt. Now the edge is key and the core has to adapt. Geoffrey Moore
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The earliest applications, based on mainframes, required users to conform to the nature of the system. Green screens and command lines were the norm, and the machines demanded a relatively high degree of technical know-how to make the system perform its functions. Client-server introduced graphical user interfaces (GUIs), widgets and point-and-click, albeit often with little thought for the user experience (think of list selections with hundreds of results). Again, ! the model assumed a subgroup would be trained around the system.
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The web reversed this assumption. Designers began to work with ! a new kind of user in mind: anyone with a computer and an internet connection. Now that the computer has moved to the pocket and internet connections have moved to the airwaves, apps are expected to know and understand the user, rather than the other way around. Factors such as the users location (grocery store, sporting event), context (looking for a parking spot, buying tickets) and proximity to
friends are variables the app must recognize intuitively without having the user dene and input the information. Given this trend, we tend to approach discussions of consumerization through the lens of smartphones and mobility. This is three-quarters right.
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The trend toward mobile-rst app development recognizes that users want apps that dont try to do everything; rather, they are optimized for a handful of specic functions and easily manipulated with limited keyboard input. At HPs June 2012 Discover event, Chris Anderson, Wired magazines editor in chief, called them featherweight apps.
Mobile-rst should not ! become mobile-only.

But mobile-rst should not become mobile-only. The future of every app is a multiscreen one smartphone, tablet, computer, television and perhaps others not yet invented.
The requirement to support a multiscreen experience will place a premium on the user experience and, depending on the promises of technologies such as Platform as a Service (PaaS) and HTML5, the associated development costs. No longer will development simply consist of creating app interfaces that adjust dynamically to the rendering device. For the apps of the (near) future, users will expect ! a seamless experience across screens an activity that begins on ! a mobile device can be continued on a tablet or television. For example, the social music streaming service Spotify carries the users preferences and latest interactions across phones, tablets and computers. Today this is considered an exceptional user experience for personal entertainment; tomorrow it will become the expectation! for every enterprise IT app.
Portions of this page are modications based on work created and shared by the Android Open Source Project and used according to terms described in the Creative Commons 2.5 Attribution License. The license terms of using the Android image requires attribution.
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What consumerization means for the Dev Center of 2020
What are the implications of consumerization for the Dev Center of 2020? User experience (UX) design is paramount. Apps are all about users: their preferred form factor, their status, their needs, their preferences. Apps teams must think of design and user interaction together. And to get this right, they need design tools and graphics workstations. Its a mix of art and process. Enterprises need the ability to deliver experiences on different formfactors, screen sizes and devices with different compute power and capabilities. The apps team needs ways to test user behavior on different form factors as it iterates new apps with agility. It needs to be able to adjust application functionality quickly, like a fast-mutating inuenza virus. (See sidebar, The Streaming Lifecycle.) Success no longer is measured purely by performance and return on investment. Rather, star ratings and social media trending will determine an applications success.
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Commodication: IT is dead, ! long live IT
The Streaming Lifecycle

User experience design is not the only area facing pressure from consumerization. Consumer apps have conditioned us to expect a continual ow of enhancements and new features. Call it the Facebook effect: an always-on, ever-updating app experience thats a radical shift from the twice yearly updates of yesterdays enterprise IT. Enter what we call the streaming lifecycle a culmination of todays agile and continuous delivery aims that will deliver a steady ow of near real-time enhancements to the enterprise app. The idea of rollbacks will become an anachronism. There will only be roll forwards, and any shortcomings in the current release will be xed in the next 10 minutes (!). Imagine the implications of this level of agility on Dev Center of 2020. Will every business group within the enterprise have their own Dev/Test cloud? And if thats the case, what will your life as an application development and delivery professional look like! in 2020? Somewhat paradoxically, this steady stream of updates will enhance the stability of the live environment. Frequent micro-changes are better, easier and safer than annual everythingbut-the-kitchen-sink releases. However, some important assumptions are hiding behind this shift. By 2020, it is likely: Automation will have become the norm: And it will extend beyond the usual suspects of workow, progress tracking, continuous integration and continuous testing and into environment provisioning and app deployment. (With due respect to our friends in the NoOps community who hold that the public cloud will largely make the old Ops role obsolete a mix of private data centers and public clouds, or hybrid environments, is a more likely scenario through at least 2020.)
By 2020, commodication will open up most back-ofce, legacy systems, and in doing so further an explosion in app innovation for the enterprise. Again, a brief history of systems is useful: For years, enterprise IT apps indeed, enterprise IT itself have been closed systems. We might even describe the arrangement as a monopoly. Anything the business required was the job of IT (and perhaps a small syndicate of IT-vetted partners) to deliver. This monopoly was a product of accident more than design, but it brought along the predictable effects: enormous costs to sustain the kingdom, qualied enthusiasm on the part of the provider (IT) for new things, and a seemingly unbreakable codependence between provider and consumer (in this case, the lines of business).
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Importantly, we include architectures for self-correcting apps as part of this trend toward total automation. This may sound like a curious use case for automation, but in fact the capacity for an application to recognize and selfcorrect certain problems is entirely in keeping with automations aim of removing human latency wherever possible. Nor is the idea any longer so far-fetched. Take as an example an application that can recognize its consumption of system capacity, and request additional capacity from the cloud, all without human involvement. App defect leakage will be less than 1 percent: Given that the percent of defects found in production in todays enterprise is typically in double digits (when the gure is known at all), it may sound unachievable to lower that to 1 percent or less. But with smaller, more frequent releases, combined with the trend away from feature-bloat and toward featherweight apps to say nothing of the premium on user experience quality ascends to its rightful place.
Collaboration capabilities will have graduated: The mechanisms for enterprise teams to coordinate app delivery including apps, ops, the participants in the wider apps ecosystem and business sponsors have moved beyond todays elementary social media-style tools, and far beyond email and conference calls. Enterprise collaboration of the near future must have all the hallmarks of the user-rst apps the enterprise is building: instantaneous, context-aware and knowledgeable enough of user role and past collaborations to contribute suggestions to the topic at hand.
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Commodication represents a road out of this monopoly arrangement and into a kind of free-market dynamism. As Geoffrey Moore describes it, we are confronting a shift in emphasis away from Systems of Record, those primarily back-ofce, legacy systems that have consumed so much IT money and attention, and toward Systems of Engagement, those consumerized, multiscreen apps that increasingly represent the face of the enterprise.
Two factors are enabling this shift: The change from monolithic architectures to service-based ones, increasingly built around open APIs. We call these newer app incarnations composite apps that is, compositions of reusable services. A recognition by both the business and IT that the inherent monopoly of old is no good that IT cannot and should not try to solve every app need, especially in a user-driven world.
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The idea of Systems of Engagement is something the CIO is going to have to take responsibility for and think about more and more going forward. ! Geoffrey Moore
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In the coming years, enterprises will make a hard push to separate core systems from non-core systems such as payroll, expense management and travel, and to embrace commodied solutions for the latter. Indeed, by 2020 we expect most of these non-core systems will be sourced via Software as a Service (SaaS).
Its supply chain process contains generic steps including materials purchase and shipping. But it also contains two key steps that generate differentiation: the clothes design user interface and the link between the designs and setting up and manufacturing of the clothes in its factory in Portugal. This example shows that not only will the core/non-core distinction occur system-by-system but also service-by-service. Gartner predicts that by 2014, 75 percent of the Fortune 1000 will offer public Web APIs.6 Organizations will be able to better discern which services are proprietary to their business and should be developed in-house and which simply may be selected from the public, commodied sphere.
The CIO has to draw the Core-Context matrix for the company. Geoffrey Moore
Click to View Video
This leaves the core systems. But at a more granular level, even these systems have both core and non-core (i.e., generic) capabilities. For example, consider a European clothes manufacturer that makes its clothes locally in Europe. The company believes that the extra cost of doing so is offset by better responsiveness to the fast-changing and ckle European fashion market.
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Lets look at a more detailed hypothetical: Imagine that in seven years, a company called HR2020 has become the second largest HR/payroll SaaS provider in the world. It has 30 million users of its applications spread across 100,000 customers. Some other key traits: Hundreds of multiscreen apps are built around HR2020, only a few ! of which were created by the company itself. A web of open APIs connect HR2020 with apps of equivalent size, such as LinkedIn, FaceBook, Twitter and the top ERP SaaS offerings. Data analysis packs harvest data from the HR2020 system, such as, for example, a pack that looks at employee turnover and correlates this against different trends for the company in social media. This analysis provides a correlation between the unstructured data of social media and the structured data inside HR2020. In this example, we might envision HR2020 as a kind of planetary body with its own system of moons and satellites the smaller, featherweight apps assembled by afliates and subsidiaries for their own markets and purposes. And on the face of it, this sounds marvelous: a rise of innovative solar systems, anchored by planetary apps large enough to exert a gravitational pull over an array of satellite offerings, relieving enterprise IT from the constant demand for new apps, new features and new device support.
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So where does IT t into this model? For example, who is accountable for data privacy and security? At least in the monopoly world, the owner was clear. But its not as clear in a world where commodied services have exploded the number of participants. As Dave West, former VP of research at Forrester and the current chief product ofcer of TaskTop, says, You dont control an ecosystem. At best, you monitor it; you try to incentivize it in the right directions. Here the example of mobile app stores is useful. The role of these stores is to assure consumers the apps meet certain basic criteria. Consumers are free to choose, with winners decided by download and ranking. But a central body sees that certain base-level criteria are established and enforced. By 2020, we anticipate a similar model will be established by enterprise IT. If the store is to have value to the business, it must be a full and diverse offering; this means the criteria for entry cannot be too onerous. But establishing the baseline is a crucial step. Many of these criteria will center around security and the consistency of enterprise data. ITs challenge will be to maintain a master record versus proliferating data views. Ten different perspectives on one customer wont work. The data of the planet app must be secured and rendered such that the various moons and satellites access only what is appropriate to their roles.
Click to View Video
Weve watched supply chains disaggregate into loosely networked confederated networks of specialists. That hits IT in the same way.! Geoffrey Moore
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What commodication ! means for apps teams
Apps will consist of anchoring planet applications, such as HR/ payroll, CRM, supply chain and collaboration suites, around which will be moons of applications, integrations, data analyses and afliates that can create solutions using the planet applications and their moons.
This is going to put an enormous stress on Systems of Record and they are not very well architected to respond ! to it. Geoffrey Moore
Click to View Video
This means a move from monopoly IT to a lightly regulated free market for apps. This light regulation will be comparable to todays apps stores and may indeed manifest as an app store providing the enterprise with a vetted and trusted marketplace of apps, services, afliate builders and data analysis capabilities.
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Moving to a Better Model?

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. Community members are frustrated by the current state of software development, yet believe we are moving albeit slowly to a better model of constant updates and beyond twice-yearly megaupdates. However, the consumer model of pressing a button to approve an update may not work as well or be as well-received in the enterprise.
the enterprise space and I hope people will understand what their customers want and need. James McGovern also saw no need for customer interaction: There is nothing inherently bad about frequent updates, so as long as they can be done with minimal to zero user intervention. It would be a good thing if enterprise software worked in the same manner where there aren't re drills to true up licensing agreements and the need for an upgrade to be a major project, he writes.
Once is enough!
How many times have you forgotten your password for an application you hardly ever use or, worse, use all the time? Could me once registration solve many of the user issues inherent in todays enterprise app world? The need to remove 10s or 100s of different credentials to access services and data from different locations is real. Why does this need to be a central ber-authority? asks Ian Blatchford. Mike Wragg responds: Nice idea, but who would you trust to run a centralized login agency? Facebook? Apple? Google? And what if it went ofine, the whole world unable to log in? That would be an
Not necessarily better
Why [do] I have to manage and to see these updates as a user every day? Why do these updates not happen in the background automatically? asks Thomas Abel. I am absolutely not interested in this kind of information. ... I hope we will not see the same behaviour in
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interesting day, he writes. I think each enterprise will stick with its own system, but there is a case for consolidation inside that - I should not have multiple accounts at work, for example.
Counterpoint
As helpful as apps can be in both the enterprise and consumer space, some community members point to an Apps contigency the need for IT to develop an alternative for those who dislike or cant use apps. What must be remembered is not everyone is happy using apps. They may not have the right device (cost may be the inhibiting factor), they may not like IT and prefer face to face communication, or they may have some disability that stops them using the IT, notes Paul Higgins. If apps development does not consider a contingency option for those unable or unwilling to use that IT, it risks alienation of large sections of the world's population. There are many variables at work in deciding how apps will be designed and consumed. Conversations are varied and ongoing among the Enterprise 20/20 community members.
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Computing Everywhere:
Have you debugged your toothbrush?
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III.4 Computing Everywhere: Have You Debugged Your Toothbrush?

Users will want to manage the rich data they consume in their car. The nal C inuencing apps in 2020 is less a driver and more the Theyll want to integrate social media to enhance their experience. ! logical outcome of consumerization and commodication. We are The company may want to mine real-time and social activity to provide talking about the totality of software inside most manufactured goods. concierge-level service to its top customers. The possibilities are And wed like to know what you think. Share your ideas with the community now. Coming from different countries, different industries,limitless. What can you imagine?

Lets imagine youre the manufacturer of an ultra-smart car, the smartness of which is achieved through 300 million lines of code (which is not an overstatement some luxury cars already contain 100 million lines of code, more than a jet ghter). How will you deliver code updates? After all, this wondrous vehicle will sell in the tens of millions how will you manage the health of this complex computing system? How would you stop a bunch of very clever, but slightly twisted, hackers attacking your self-driving cars, causing them to stop and ash all their lights in pretty patterns? And how will you manage vast amounts of information that the system accumulates?! Share your ideas
outside IT, have we smart eachthings bring a unique By from 2020, itinside is safe toand assume that we will everywhere: smart cars that drive themselves, smart cupboards and perspective to the question were proposing: refrigerators that know what youve eaten, smart heating and cooling systems, smart water management systems and smart healthcare robots, for example.
By 2020, such smart things will surely also talk to central cloud-based systems, which will optimize the smart things into larger systems. ! For example, your smart car may need to plug into the transportation management system of the mega-city in which you live to receive updates. Central systems also may provide information that will enable your smart thing to function better. For example, heating systems and water management systems may want to know the short-term weather forecast. Or healthcare robots may connect to systems that tap into the latest knowledge of medical experts.! What can you imagine?
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III.4 Computing Everywhere: Have You Debugged Your Toothbrush?

Who will write the millions of lines of code in these smart things and their companion back-end cloud services? Almost certainly, it will be business computing groups, many of which dont exist today. Those that do exist often are small and may view software as a last-minute add-on to nalize the hardware. By 2020, so much of what enterprise IT application groups have learned over the last 30 years will have been passed over to business computing: Deployment: Who knows about keeping 300,000 things up ! to date with the latest release of software? The IT enterprise desktop management group. Health management: Modern IT management systems use advanced correlation techniques to accurately determine the root cause of problems, which allow them to set up automated self-healing. Its the accurate root cause determination more than the automation itself that makes this possible. We will need to apply such techniques to smart technologies such as healthcare robots and self-driving cars. Anti-viral defense: We need to carry the techniques we have learned in defense of our IT systems over to our smart things. Zoom in
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Predicting apps in 2020

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. What will the next generation of apps look like, how will they respond to users and how will they interact with the connected ! world of 2020? Community members had their opinions, and many point out that what we perceive as future technology is actually! here today.
becoming a signicant skill for "developers" and should be signicantly automated when compared to today's environments. But Leroy Mason believes app developers rst must take a step back and understand why apps are created in the rst place. The most critical question is what new business value will be created by new applications, he notes. New applications, I mean really new applications, are always hand-coded. New tools, such as apps, displace what was previously manual effort in completing work. ... This displaced effort is now free to create new value which is initially implemented with manual effort then, soon after, is yet again displaced by a new tool. ... Thus hand-coding applications will always be the vanguard of creating new business value. The other techniques industrialization, services-oriented architectures, code generation are really ways of re-engineering new applications for lower cost of ownership.
Does integration matter?

If that is the case, then where does integration stand in the business process value chain? When asked, Is Integration the Killer App of the Future? the Enterprise 20/20 community believes there is a time and a place for integration, but only if designed and carried out thoughtfully. We've been talking about how the whole concept of the standalone application is obsolete, since applications are turning into aggregations of
Cloud crystal ball

The next evolution of applications, for one, spurred conversations on both sides of the fence including whether applications as we know them will continue to exist. The whole concept of an application may be obsolete, writes Charles Bess. Applications are turning into an orchestrated aggregation of services. ... This means that integration is
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services that perform some functions to display the information for the situation or transform the information in some way. It seems that the tools that can most effectively integrate these services (and service providers) together will have signicant impact, writes Charles Bess. Anything that can hide the complexities of security integration (since some services will be role-oriented and others will be access control-oriented), data transformation and workow notication/automation can radically shift what is viewed as possible and valuable. The disaggregation of functions into discrete apps, or interfaces to services, does provide the ultimate exibility but with ultimate exibility comes complexity, postulates Terry White." A very smart device user can very quickly adapt to new applications and changing applications while implementing their own workow and processes which change whenever they need them to. "
That also could include the ability to touch applications and manipulate them to suit the individual. It's also not out of the realm of possibility to see applications integrated in such a way that there no longer will be individual applications but one central application that ! acts like a portal (sort of one "know-it-all" application). James McGovern expands on this concept, but believes its not so simple: The key phrase in your sentence is applications that suit the individual. This would require a fundamental change to how enterprises thing about development. Today, in many shops the user interface is designed by the business customer who is paying for the application, he writes. Corporations may in the future set standards that are impediments to the user having the ability to customize an application. ... The struggle of uniformity vs individuality is being fought on a variety of fronts. Indeed, one must pull out the crystal ball to see where the future of apps will lead the enterprise. New concepts and ways of doing things impact everything from the look and feel of an app to the amount of code it needs to run. How will it change by 2020?
Users dening the apps

The next generation of apps in all likelihood will embrace the concept of personalization ways access to apps would enable users to create their own user experience, even with enterprise apps. By 2020 access to applications will cease to be tethered to the device and respond to users' needs on an individual level, notes John Knightly.
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The Apps Team of 2020

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III.5 The Apps Team of 2020
In the context of software, consumerization is about the ongoing evolution from system-centricity to user-centricity essentially, smart apps that bend to, even anticipate, user need, rather than users having to contort themselves to meet the peculiarities of the system. Commodication is about the inevitable, mostly desirable trend away from centralized planning of every IT app and toward a borderless environment that harnesses the citizen developer. Computing everywhere recognizes the central role of software delivery practices in a world where even inexpensive common appliances will include apps to run them. What does this mean for the apps team of 2020? First, the key trait of successful apps teams in the future will be their capacity for sustaining, guiding, but never controlling the mosaic of services and service providers that advance the goals of the enterprise.
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Second, the apps teams of 2020 will be measured by user ratings and reviews, which means the way performance is evaluated will change. While cost, quality and timeliness will never go away, criteria such as nimbleness, creativity and user rankings will form a new iron triangle of application efcacy. Teams must be willing to open up any system or service not core to the business, allowing for a robust ecosystem of major and minor players to build adjacent value-added capabilities. The app stores of the enterprise will reect this vibrancy or lack thereof. The degree to which the extended apps solar system is trustworthy and secure will matter more than ever. Perhaps the greatest trick will be managing a vibrant system of systems while also ensuring the security of transactions and data. Finding the balance between openness and control may be the greatest challenge of ! applications in 2020.
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By way of closing, its worth noting that a number of the principles described here are at work in the development and evolution of this! e-book: The platform for this ebook leverages an item in HPs apps store of IT-approved capabilities the Jive collaboration platform. It is multiscreen, optimized for both computer and tablet consumption. (Perhaps Enterprise 2030 will be a 3D experience for your smartTV.) We view these as opinions and hypotheses open to proof or disproof by the wider community. By commodifying the content, we expect it to be leveraged, expanded upon, corrected all by the wisdom of crowds. Our success is not measured in ROI or uptime; it is measured by your engagement.
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Development ! in Action
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. What will be the role of the apps teams in 2020? The community had no clear vision on who will be building and deploying apps, but they had strong opinions about the apps themselves how they will be crafted, what they will look like and more.
99 percent will be in handcrafted parts and 1 percent in the ! automated sections. James McGovern, however, believes more context is needed. I think it is important to put an industry vertical slant on the discussion, he notes. If time is money, specialized hand-crafted applications will need to exist that can eliminate micro-seconds from many applications. Same thing can be said for applications related to defense, public safety and the medical professions.
Multidimensional possibilities
Community members are opinionated on the subject of how apps will be built in the future, which Patrick DeMichel believes will include a lot of automation. [I believe] 99 percent of the code will be generated by tools and 1 percent will always be handcrafted in thirdlevel language, he writes. In terms of cycles this will be naturally the opposite: 99 percent will be in handcrafted parts and 1 percent in the automated sections. However, Mike Wragg believes context is again necessary: I think the interface will adapt to match the situation. It's an existing trend, he writes. Applications will have to t in with what's available, so developers will need to cope with all sorts of things in one
The perfect app prole

Community members are opinionated on the subject of how apps will be built in the future, which Patrick DeMichel believes will include a lot of automation. [I believe] 99 percent of the code will be generated by tools and 1 percent will always be handcrafted in third-level language, he writes. In terms of cycles this will be naturally the opposite:
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application: small mobile screens, bigger tablet screens, large TV, huge 3D projection walls, etc. Input could be by keypad, gesture, spoken, or even direct reading of brain waves! Hopefully, the development tools will evolve to make most of this automatic! Doug Nelson, meanwhile, takes a completely different tack, asserting apps will be obsolete as technology becomes a part of our being. All these changes seem to avoid real probability of technology implants, he writes. With the enhancement of technology whey would be continue down the path of manual interfaces when we can potentially design system implants that can be used as our interface. Think of an ocular implant that allows us to pull up the web, using some form of kinesthetic match to browse cyberspace inside our head." It sounds far fetched, but so was Star Trek. Whether inside the body or on a smartphone, apps are the future of the Dev Center. How they look, interact with users or engage with other systems remain to be seen, however.
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etur
III.6 Sources
I MAGE 1.6 Link
Text
1. http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2012/04/ff_andreessen/all/1 2. http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/advanced-cars/this-car-runs-on-code 3. http://www.samsung.com/us/topic/apps-on-your-fridge 4. http://www.bladewatch.com/2012/06/05/chris-anderson-hp-discover-2012/ 5. Gartner Predicts 2012: Application Development
Graphics
Fig. 1- IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 2020, May 2012
The views set forth in this publication are not necessarily those of Hewlett-Packard Company or its afliates (HP), but are the collective views of contributors to this publication, some of which have been curated by HP. Because the content of this publication is future-looking, it, by denition, makes certain presuppositions and assumptions, some or all of which may or may not be realized.
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Outlook
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IV.1 Outlook
The Free People Clothing Boutique turned online shopping inside out when it introduced a feature called Collections on its website. Instead of presenting customers with the companys vision of which dress goes with which sweater, shoes and accessories, Free People decided to let customers take matters of style into their own hands. Today, loyal shoppers create their own look books with inspiration from others in the Free People community. And once they have personalized collections to share, they tell the world via Facebook, Twitter and Pinterest. Welcome to the future of marketing.
Customer choice
In 2020, customers will have decide how they interact! with retailers and other businesses.
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IV.1 Outlook
Digital marketing puts customers in chargein new and powerful ways. If shoppers are creating the catalogs today, what else will they control by 2020? And how will we keep up with the change?
In 2020, marketing is here and now.

For starters, we need to understand the trends and technologies that are shaping global markets. And then we have to change the way we plan, execute and measure our marketing efforts. Forget about year-long planning cycles, separate public relations teams, isolated campaigns and the same old mix of tactics. In 2020, marketing is here and now.
Nike takes the next step

NIKEiD allows athletes to custom-build their own running shoes, and Nike+ devices can track and measure user activity levels, for a richer experience.
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IV.1 Outlook
If yesterdays marketers communicated what the company was doing, tomorrows marketers will shape the very content, products and services that are offered to their customers. Think about celebrity chefs sharing recipes with their fans, car companies offering travel apps, or HP thought leaders sharing their views in this ebook. Marketing has a hand in all of it. Its a shift that will forever change the way we go about the business of positioning brands, communicating value and interacting with customers. This is an exciting time, to be sure. We have new opportunities to explore and many challenges to overcome.
Not your average cup of joe!

The My Starbucks Idea website changes the ! way customers experience their favorite coffeehouse.
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IV.1 Community Discussion Highlights
Marketings impact
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The Enterprise 20/20 community believes the future of marketing lies as much with the consumer as it does with the marketer. And how information is obtained, used and disseminated will impact the way users will view the companies marketing to them.
at least inuence value in whole new ways, writes Charles Bess. Sentiment analysis is moving to a more cause and effect view of decision making rather than a latency rich sense and respond approach that is traditionally used. Horia Slusanschi agrees: Understanding why people do the things they do is very useful. If they believe the same things you do, you'll nd them very loyal.
The sentimental marketer

One method, sentiment analysis, generated much discussion ! among members as a tool that could be useful, depending on whos being asked. [With sentiment analysis] marketing can expand its understanding both deeper into the individual as well as the masses and if not change
We need to remove the sales input from this process. Gather input from customers, current and future, and leave the sales team to sell. Lets focus on what customers do, not what they say.!
Doug Nelson
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But Lucia Gerber has a different point of view, believing decisions shouldnt be made based on sentiment alone. Marketing appeals to me when it provides information I am looking for at the time I look for it.
Voice of the people?

Sentiment analysis is just one aspect of marketing community members feel strongly about. James McGovern wonders how involved marketers should be in representing their audience of end-user customers. Is it the job of marketing in 2020 to listen and serve as the voice of the customer (current and future)? he asks. We need to remove the sales input from this process, answers Doug Nelson. Gather input from customers, current and future, and leave ! the sales team to sell. Lets focus on what customers do, not what! they say. Marketing, most community members agree, must go beyond the traditional channels of static advertising into a more iterative model that includes the consumer. But no one claims to know exactly how deep marketing should go.
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Marketing Macro Trends

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IV.2 Marketing Macro Trends

In Outlook 2020, the introduction to Enterprise 20/20, we shared several world trends that are defining the future of the enterprise. Two of these demographic shifts are especially relevant when we talk about the role of marketing in 2020: the growing middle class in developing countries and concentration of people in megacities. Both will redefine markets. Your enterprise will need to segment its marketing efforts by language, culture and individual profiles. As part of our research into the future of marketing, we invited a panel of experts to share their views. They agreed that three main trends, all driven by technology, are shaping the future of marketing:
At the same time, video, social media and mobile devices represent new channels for extending and shaping brand experiences. And, increasingly, sophisticated data analytics technology nds patterns and insight in all the information we create each day, allowing marketers to reach new levels of precision and personalization.
Real-time marketing Buyers in control Insight from information

In this chapter, we explore what these trends mean for marketing teams representing both traditional and digital brands, how the role of the CMO will change and what challenges marketers can expect to encounter as the trends unfold.
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Communitys impact on marketing

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The way we live, work and play is having an impact on marketing, community members agree, but the extent of the impact is ripe for discussion. Certainly the rise of mega cities with dense populations will change the methods by which consumers receive information, which in turn will create new opportunities for marketers.
The way we market to consumers is dependent from the consumer groups you want to target, writes Thomas Abel. Considering mega cities, you can create concentric circles around the mega cities. Mega cities will have mega marketing channels that organizations can take advantage of, responds Charles Bess. Whether people ! like to admit it or not, most humans like to interact with people ! who they can relate with. This allows for highly targeted ! marketing approaches.
Culture shock
Marketing to populations in mega cities is one scenario companies must consider in 2020, but a more culturally diverse (and globally connected) society also should be an important consideration for marketers, community members believe. Today, marketing seems to treat everyone equal and only seeks to divide us amongst buckets that are easily ascertained based on age, gender and location, writes James McGovern. If you can ascertain my culture, you may be able to market to me better than if you remain blissfully ignorant about it. However, not all community members agree culturally diverse marketing would be a good thing. I'm not so sure I would ! appreciate marketing based on my culture." When I see marketing
Urban legends
How might shifts in populations and demographics impact the" way companies market to consumers? Community members had varying opinions.
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collateral that tries to lump me into a bucket based on my heritage ! I get irritated, notes Doug Nelson. I'm not convinced that marketing in this way is a positive move.
Community efforts
Perhaps more effective, community members point out, may be the impact of community on marketing a company that knows its community of consumers will be more likely to build a compelling marketing strategy. Gone are the days where you could simply "classify" a person based on their age, gender and where they live. In other words, traditional marketing tactics won't work in the new world of social media, McGovern writes. Social media suggests that consumers will desire to ask their coworkers, friends and family for advice. Most marketers don't get community, answers Dennis Kruegel. They have been taught to treat marketing research, marketing communication and adjacent areas such as sales and customer service as different areas, handled by different business units, which don't have that many connections with each other. But social media is unique in combining all those. The underlying theme in these conversations is the idea that traditional marketing tactics no longer work. But how can companies
Most marketers don't get community. They have been taught to treat marketing research, marketing communication and adjacent areas such as sales and customer service as different areas. But social media is unique in combining all those.!
Dennis Kruegel
create marketing efforts that speak to their entire audience or, at least, enough of them to make a difference?
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Real-time Marketing
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IV.3 Real-time Marketing
The idea of real-time marketing is the most important communications revolution since the invention of the printing press.
David Meerman Scott, marketing strategist and author of Real-Time Marketing and PR and Newsjacking
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In the past, he explains, the marketing departments job was to gure out how to plan something that would help sell products and services in the future. The resulting tradeshows, brochures, direct mail and campaigns took months of planning, and it was difcult at best to measure results after the fact. The new reality of agile marketing shifts the focus to today: What is happening this instant, and how should the company respond? Customers dont want to wait. It used to be if you responded to a lead within a day, you were doing well, says author and online marketing pioneer Bryan Eisenberg. Now, a lead loses its value in a few seconds.
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Scott likens the shift to the radical change in the bond trading market in the 1980s, when advances in technology enabled real-time trading for the rst time. (Listen to him explain this analogy in his keynote address at the 2012 NAMM Show.) In the 1970s, people made trading decisions. By the 1990s, computers made trading decisions. There is no comparison between the nancial markets of 1970 and 1990, he says. Were at the same cusp now with marketing. Almost no one is seeing it, and almost no one is taking advantage of it.
How will real-time marketing affect your business?
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Marketing game-changers
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. Real-time marketing: Its a concept that holds the promise of a better marketing future. Community members agree real-time marketing could be the most effective marketing strategy to date.
Responds Doug Nelson: I don't know if you can model Inuence."Inuence is dependent on so many factors, and is eeting."One day your inuence level may be real high, but 24 hours later you are ignored."Any model based on inuence would create a cult of personality that only lasts a brief time. Adds McGovern: Marketers have no choice but to attempt to model inuence.
I don't think it has to be solely about traditional vs. new media, but rather about presenting at formal agenda-driven events vs. something less formal, say an Occupy Wall Street event.!
! James McGovern
Real -time marketing will become very effective and essential for businesses who want to stay ahead of the curve, writes Luigi Tiano. I believe technology will become the enabler for marketing campaigns. Gathering real-time data and feeding that back to marketing will allow businesses to put them one step ahead. Adds Thomas Abel: Thanks to social media, the game will change from bowling to pinball.
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Indeed, new marketing tactics such as real-time marketing and inuence modeling will come into play more as traditional marketing avenues fall away. Case in point, notes McGovern:! the death of conferences, magazines and other " marketing channels. One can conclude that marketing will lose a vast majority of the channels in 2020 that made it so successful, he writes. ! I don't think it has to be solely about traditional vs. new media, but rather about presenting at formal agenda-driven events vs. something less formal. ... Would a marketing person in the future understand how to market at, say, an Occupy Wall ! Street event? To be sure, new ways of marketing are creating new opportunities for marketers. What sticks and what doesnt remains to be seen, however. Go to the next Community Discussion page
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Buyers in Control
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IV.4 Buyers in Control
As the marketing cycle is accelerating, a wave of technology innovation has shifted the balance of power from marketers to customers. From caller ID and email lters to DVRs and pop-up blockers, technology now allows the buyer to skip over ads in a ash. Marketing in this way becomes a two-way conversation, with benets The marketing message is lost; sizable budgets wasted. Coming from different countries, different industries, for both sides. The enterprise learns what buyers really want.
The key is to think like a publisher, not! a marketer.

pressure that is sweeping through enterprise marketing organizations. The best marketing organizations will integrate their market intelligence assets into one apparatus: todays traditional shop with tomorrows real-time shop, he writes. Marketers of 2020 quite likely will listen rst and then engage with existing and prospective customers on their terms. Marketers will answer questions in a thoughtful way on channels such as LinkedIn, rather than plugging a bunch of their companys products that might address the problem. Those who succeed can be perceived as trusted advisers rather than people trying to peddle their wares.
from inside anddone outside we job each bringto athat uniqueCustomers in turn can help the enterprise decide which products or As marketers, we havent a goodIT, enough responding services to keep and which to kill. trend, says Mike Volpe, CMO, Hubspot, which provides all-in-one perspective to the question were proposing: marketing software that helps companies attract leads and convert In a recent report on social marketing intelligence, Rich Vancil, group them into customers. We need to do more inbound marketing and vice president for IDCsi executive advisory strategies predicts that attract people to our brands, rather than spewing stuff out. market intelligence also will experience the same transformational
In what ways will buyers control your ! business in 2020?
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IV.4 Buyers in Control
IDC survey respondents who doubt the importance of social media for market intelligence
IDC survey respondents who believe in the power of listening to social channels
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Focusing on the consumer

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. Despite what any marketer believes, one tenet holds true: Consumers are in control. How deep that control is, and how marketers capitalize on that control, is fodder for plenty of Enterprise 20/20 community conversations.
but could be also driven by competitors to inuence the public opinion about a product or a company. Companies have to react to comments in social media that are incorrect or manipulative.
Is product marketing dead?

In that vein, then, James McGovern asks, Is product " marketing dead? As I travel through airports, I have noticed that the likes of IBM, Accenture and their approach to advertising is no longer about a specic product and/or service but a purpose, he writes. They are not appealing to our nancial desires in saving costs, but more toward the need we as social beings and our need to we feel we belong to something much larger than ourselves. If you look at the best commercials for very successful organizations, the marketing is more toward a nebulous idea and not a solution."They'll mention they know the answer, but they don't even give a hint about the product."I believe this goes to the society we have become, notes Doug Nelson. Traditional IT product marketing needs to adapt to this new dynamic.
Control issues
Is it wrong that consumers are steering the marketing bus? And how might that control impact a companys business? The world gets apparently more transparent and driven by buyers who post their comments on companies and products in the social media, notes Thomas Abel, but the danger I see is that the transparency might be not a neutral or independent transparency
Want loyalty? Get a dog

But no matter how a company gets its marketing message across, it means nothing if consumers dont react. But customer
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loyalty no longer can be counted on, community members believe. Customers aren't really loyal in the strict sense, but merely looking to simplify their lives, reduce the fear of error (and getting red for making one) and have some semblance of recognition. I would argue that this isn't loyalty to a business, but to themselves. Customers are not addicts unless marketing gures out ways to cross this chasm, McGovern notes. How, then, can a company effectively get its marketing message to its consumers? Using traditional methods wont work. Instead, marketers more than ever will have to work with one ear to ! the ground.
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Insight from " Information

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IV.5 Insight from Information
Marketing has always been a numbers-driven game. In the past, we measured press release hits, survey research, polls, billboard reach and conversion rates of direct mail pieces. Reports came out every quarter, or maybe once a month. Today, the amount and type of information we track has changed, and by 2020, we will be drowning in data. And the business will demand weekly or daily intelligence updates. Marketers are saying, I dont need more data; tell me what I can do with it! says Annie Weinberger, VP of Marketing for Promote Solutions at Autonomy, an HP company and global leader in software that processes human information, or unstructured data, including social media, email, video, audio, text and web pages.
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Nearly 90 percent of the 1.8 zettabytes of digital information in the world today has been created in the last two years alone. And this digital universe will reach 35 zettabytes in 2020.ii Every time we share a photo, text a tweet, like a post on Facebook, watch a YouTube video, buy something on Amazon.com or talk with someone on Google+, we create datalots of it. Environmental sensors, digital photos and online transaction records add even more information to the mix.
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This human-friendly information is growing far faster than traditional data, and its where all the interesting things happen. Unlike the facts and gures housed in yesterdays data warehouses, this vast pool of narrative information is unstructured and challengingbut not impossibleto analyze. You cannot put a phone call, a movie or an email into a relational database and expect it to understand it, Weinberger says. In order to do real analytics and get real business benets for your customers, you need technologies that can understand what this information means.
How will human information change your business?
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Marketers are saying, I dont need more data; tell me what I can do with it!
Annie Weinberger, VP Marketing, Autonomy Promote Solutions
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Since 2005, enterprises have spent $4 trillion on hardware, software, services and staff to create, manage, store and derive revenue from information. Yet today, enterprises on average only use 5 percent of available data.iii The problem, according to Weinberger, is that different data types have forced CMOs to splinter their organizations into siloed tools addressing video, email, audio, tweet, image and purchasing. ! The goal is to break down silos of insight and action so that we leverage data and understanding from every part of the organization to optimize all stages of the customer lifecycleattract, engage, convert, retain, she says. In this way, marketers set themselves up to embrace all channels, including future ones we havent yet invented. !
But whose job will big data be?

Information management today is ITs job. By 2020, roles will shift and marketing will assume responsibility for the big data opportunity. The next-gen CMO will use data to understand the brands imprint on the customer, says Chris Selland, VP of Marketing at Vertica, an HP company that develops a big data analytics platform. Smart teams will use technology to nd patterns that can predict customer behavior. Deep insight, down to the level of the individual, will shape the way they position products. ! This will affect everything from search and advertising to customer engagement and new product development. In the future, marketing will become more predictive and less reactive. And a consistent customer experience will be critical to success.
Innovation will lead to automation of many routine marketing tasks. Ten years from now, there will be technology that can develop responses to tweets dynamically based on all different circumstances inventory control, customer orders, and more, Eisenberg says.
Click on video to play
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We shouldnt have disasters like New Coke in the future. We should be able to release products that the market wants. ! Paul Gillin, B2B social media expert
And we should be able to do this down to the level of the individual. So-called micro-marketing will allow us to follow neighborhood buying habits and adjust advertising, products and business hours to optimize a particular target audience in a specic location. The companies that get this right will win.
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Case Study: Virgin America

In the early days Virgin Americas marketing team had big ideas and limited funds. More than 70 percent of the airlines business was online. From the start, we had to understand what was going on in all the digital channels, recalls Porter Gale, former CMO, Virgin America. Open lines of communication with IT were really important. For example, Gales team owned search engine optimization (SEO) and search engine marketing (SEM) but collaborated closely with IT from the start. Transparency between product and marketing was just as critical. Under Gales leadership, the marketing team lobbied hard to inuence product decisionsspecically around the introduction of Wi-Fi inight. Virgin America had an opportunity to be the rst airline to Wi-Fienable its entire eet. Gales team saw huge marketing potential in the story, but the technology was expensive. The solution? A co-managing of the deal between the engineering and marketing departments. The rest is history. Does Gale believe modern technology will end marketing as we know it? Were denitely seeing a reduction of traditional marketing elements. But creativity doesnt go away. You need both the analytical side and the creative side.
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Too much information?

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The proliferation of human information is impacting the way companies tailor their marketing message. Indeed, marketing is ! now more a feedback loop of constant improvements based on customer comments. And social media is fueling much of ! this practice.
writes Thomas Abel. At least sales, production and nance (and with that others) are additionally involved in the process.
Socially acceptable?
A large part of the marketing feedback loop depends on social media as a resource for marketing/consumer communication. But should company executives, namely the CEO, participate in social media on behalf of their company? The Enterprise 20/20 community has divergent thoughts on the question. I'm not sure I would use social media if I were a CEO, ! writes Doug Nelson. The CEO has a very large set of responsibilities, and social media tends to take up a very! large amount of time." Additionally, CEOs who use social media leave themselves open to serious bloopers when ! they misspeak. But Luigi Tiano believes a CEOs social presence is important. I think CEOs should be using it as a tool to increase visibility of their business. Leaders need to be transparent to be believed. [Its] so much easier to develop a following! Charles Bess agrees: To be a leader (by denition) you must have followers. That's not the same as reports. A leader must
Only human
As the barrage of human information has had an impact on marketing, so too might other areas of an enterprise benet. But which ones? ! And how? You should consider the whole chain when you get feedback from your customer responses to new products/offerings/campaigns,
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You should consider the whole chain when you get feedback from your customer responses to new products/offerings/ campaigns. At least sales, production and nance (and with that others) are additionally involved in the process.!
Thomas Abel
Social media does play a large role in marketing, community members agree, but whether the voice of the company is the CEO or CMO or its employees is something every enterprise should decide for itself.
Fig
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have vision and the skills to communicate that future state effectively to others so that they sign on and support the effort. Social tools have a role to play.
Challenges of " Marketing in 2020
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IV.6 Challenges of Marketing in 2020
Real-time marketing pioneers are learning as they go and encountering challenges along the way. Listening to customers is important, but as Gillin cautions, You can chase customer feedback down a rat hole. Its equally important to be sure you pay attention to the right customersthe most inuential onesand evaluate feedback in context with overall enterprise objectives. Gillin recalls how IBM made this mistake in the 1990s when it decided to keep making mainframes instead of moving to PCs.
You can chase customer feedback! down a rat hole.! Paul Gillin, B2B Social Media Expert
Another challenge is talent. The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) predicts there will be a shortage of skills necessary for organizations to take advantage of big data opportunities. Demand for deep analytical talent in the United States could be 50 to 60 percent greater than its projected supply by 2018, according to the MGI report. It projects that the United States alone faces a shortage of 140,000 to 190,000! people with deep analytical skills, as well as 1.5 million managers ! and analysts to analyze big data and make decisions based on ! their ndings.iv
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IV.6 Challenges of Marketing in 2020
The greatest obstacle, Scott says, may be fear of change. Brands that over-rely on traditional agencies to show them how to market in real time will pay a high price. Modern CMOs need to live and breathe marketing technology themselves and lead the way toward collaborating with customers. This means forging partnerships with other areas of the company, including IT, product development, engineering and customer service. Screw-ups get amplied on social media, so you also need to bond closely with customer service teams, says Selland. Amazon.com realized this when it began sending emails instantly to customers to acknowledge when they placed new orders. Before the conrmation emails, the company would receive emails from customers asking, Did you get my order? It took time for customer service to reply to each inquiry and customers didnt trust the experience. An auto-reply conserved resources and enhanced the brand at the same time.
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Challenges or opportunities?
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. When it comes to discussing the challenges facing marketers in 2020, many things come to mind: harnessing the barrage of human information, ensuring the companys message stays consistent across all channels and promoting the positive commentary within social media tools.
is good at marketing, then gure out what they have successfully marketed in the past. More importantly, if you want to retain them, make sure they spend time doing actual marketing and not time on creating marketing budgets or other internal activities that require Microsoft Excel or other non- customer-facing artifacts. Anyone in marketing should have something online, agrees Luigi Tiano. The rst thing I want to do [when I meet someone] is get an understanding of their web presence Twitter, LinkedIn, blogging efforts, etc. We are in a web driven world. If your marketer is not web-savvy or web-present, you may want to pass on that person.
Analyze this
Key to overcoming many of these challenges is employees with the right kind of next-generation marketing know-how. But how will companies recruit and train marketing analysts in 2020? Stop using traditional hiring and recruitment processes, suggests James McGovern. If you want to understand whether a person is
Marketing is a profession, and not a personand how it professes in the 21st century is the chief question of TODAY. !
manjit 20/20
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The human factoragain

Many current and future marketing tactics may seem like a massive upheaval from what we consider to be traditional marketing, but take a longer look and they follow a path laid out in The Cluetrain Manifesto, the theses of which include, Markets are conversations, Markets consist of human beings, not demographic sectors, and The Internet is enabling conversations among human beings that were simply not possible in the era of mass media. Such concepts give credence to the concepts of human information, social media and real-time marketing. I remember when I read [the Cluetrain Manifesto] the rst time, I was worried I had chosen the wrong career path in Market Communications, writes Nicole Walker, but now I can see it has now just evolved from communications to conversations and it is TWO-way vs. the traditional one-way of the 20th century. The Cluetrain Manifesto was indeed a hallmark of the human voice and its manifesto signers echoed a collective energy that is still largely locked within organizations, notes community member manjit 20/20. The fundamentals are not going to change marketing is a representation of that, but marketing is a profession, and not a personand how it professes in the 21st century is the chief question of TODAY.
The challenges facing marketers of 2020 may seem foreign and, in some cases, insurmountable by todays standards. But the community reminds us that what seemed out of the realm of possibility 10 years ago today is commonplace.
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Conclusion: " The CMO of 2020

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IV.7 Conclusion: The CMO of 2020
By 2017, CMOs will spend more on IT than CIOs.v

As these trends develop, marketing will become inextricably linked to product development, engineering, analytics and customer service. The new landscape will require a new kind of marketing leaderone who listens more, analyzes information, adopts technology and experiments often. CMOs will turn to Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions to accelerate time-to-value and avoid the hassles of neverending IT projects. This is why Gartner predicts that by 2017, CMOs will spend more on IT than CIOs.vi Eisenberg believes that by 2020, the two roles will merge, with the CMO becoming both the company storyteller and the technology strategist.
How do we get from here to there? People need to be retrained or red, says Scott. CMOs will surround themselves with professional journalists who can tell stories, technology experts who understand the latest tools and services, and customer service pros who interact directly with customers every day. !
How do you think technology will shape ! whats possible for marketers in 2020?
! In many companies, the CMO will hire or play the role of Chief Customer Ofcer someone who owns the entire customer experience, from acquiring new customers to servicing and keeping current ones. The CMO might also become a Chief Digital Ofcer who oversees web, mobile, apps and more. What new roles do you think should be created?
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Cross-functional teams from all areas of the business may help with the transition. Companies might also appoint a Chief Listening Ofcer to serve as the eyes and ears of what is happening in social media. This kind of social intelligence informs what the companys own bloggers write about, who they follow and when they engage with external bloggers. The CLO can also guide content creators toward more effective communications across all online channels.
CMOs are on the cusp of a sea change. In the future, its likely they will be engineers of the customer experience and analysts extraordinaire. They will need to know where to look and how to listen, to nd out what people are saying about their services. And they will be expected to respond in an instant to challenges and opportunities that emerge. Are you ready to begin?
F
!
How will the role of the CMO change in 2020?
As marketing becomes increasingly technology-driven, it also will become more like salesdriven by data, measured by results and serving as a pathway to the CEOs role. For example, internal Klout scores will provide quantitative guidance for determining who your most important customers are, says Selland. At the end of the day, ! the CMO will be accountable for revenue growth and will have the broadest sense of where the company should be.
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CMOs: An Endangered Species?

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. Perhaps the one area most impacted by the evolution of marketing is the role of the Chief Marketing Ofcer. CMOs of 2020 most likely will look nothing like those of today. But how impactful will those changes be, and how deep will they reverberate?
Community member Doug Nelson is blunt in his assessment: I think the question should be, do we need a CMO?"Many marketing agencies are regularly used in the marketing space, why wouldn't the enterprise of 2020 just outsource this work to an agency and eliminate the in-house positions? Thomas Abel takes a different tack, focusing on the technologies. Understanding the huge impact of Big Data analysis for marketing and the ability to use Big Data analysis for campaigns (outsourced or not) is something the CMO should be very familiar with, he writes. The CMO [also] will have to focus more on the whole customer lifecycle. As an example you can look at Amazons business processes.
Technologys impact
Taken from a larger perspective, community members see technology having a huge impact on not just the role of the CMO but also on the way CMOs and all marketers approach ! their jobs. There are a number of interesting aspects to this where IT plays a key role: 1. Who is interested? 2. How can the business tell when they are making a decision?
Role plays
CMOs already are feeling the changes, as IT becomes a larger part of their knowledge base. The question, How will the role of the CMO change by 2020? generated healthy discussion among the ! community members.
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3. What will they help them make a decision? 4. Who inuences this decision? All of these areas are ripe for the use of advanced analytics (both on the business and the consumer side), writes Charles Bess. With the growth of Big Data, the marketing folks stand to gain the most from the technology, notes Luigi Tiano. However, there is a
risk that they are overwhelmed with an abundance of data ! which becomes a nightmare to triage and extract business ! intelligence from. But he adds, I think marketing and some parts of IT will converge closer together. Businesses that leave a large gap between marketing and IT (which I see today in a lot of businesses) tend to be slow to react to market conditions! and consumer needs, which ultimately puts them a few ! steps behind. James McGovern looks at the opportunities for marketers in 2020: Technology will enable marketers to make better targeted spam; technology will enable marketers to determine which 50 percent of their budget is waste; and technology will enable marketers to possibly communicate in a method that is most effective for that individual targeted consumer, he writes. Whether technologies create opportunities for marketers that are perceived as benecial to end users remains to be seen, as does how marketing utilizes such technologies. One thing is clear: Technology is paving the path.
Businesses that leave a large gap between marketing and IT tend to be slow to react to market conditions and consumer needs, which ultimately puts them a few steps behind. !
Luigi Tiano
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IV.8 References
References
i Social Marketing Intelligence, Rich Vancil, Group Vice President, Executive Advisory Services, IDC, October 2012! ii Big Data Will Help Shape Your Markets Next Big Winners, The Forrester Blogs for Enterprise Architecture Professionals -Brian Hopkins, September 30, 2011, as cited in Information Optimization: Turning Insight into Better Enterprise Decisions, HP, 2011, http://h20195.www2.hp.com/V2/GetPDF.aspx/ 4AA3-8545ENW.pdf ! iii The 2011 Digital Universe Study: Extracting Value from Chaos, IDC, as cited in Information Optimization: Turning Insight into Better Enterprise Decisions, HP, 2011,http://h20195.www2.hp.com/V2/GetPDF.aspx/4AA3-8545ENW.pdf ! iv Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity," The McKinsey Global Institute, June 2011 ! v By 2017 the CMO will Spend More on IT Than the CIO, Laura McLellan, Gartner, January 3, 2012 ! vi By 2017 the CMO will Spend More on IT Than the CIO, Laura McLellan, Gartner, January 3, 2012
Figures" "
Fig. 1 Social Marketing Intelligence, Rich Vancil, Group Vice President, Executive Advisory Services, IDC, October 2012 Fig. 2 Social Marketing Intelligence, Rich Vancil, Group Vice President, Executive Advisory Services, IDC, October 2012 Fig. 3 Tweets, Texts, Emails" are attributed to Go-Globe.com; YouTube stats are attributed to http://www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics Fig. 4 What Is Big Data?Autonomy Fig, 5 What Is Big Data?Autonomy Fig. 6 What Is Big Data?Autonomy Fig. 7 What Is Big Data?Autonomy
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Outlook
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V.1 Outlook
Data centers are going away. Your server room is going away. Everything is going to the cloud. Your employees will bring their own devices to work, and you will never have to purchase hardware again. Magically, all your IT needs will be taken care of by third-party providers that can do it better. All of this and more is coming with the data center of the future. At least this is what some people would have you believe. Reality, however, is poised to look a bit different.
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V.1 Outlook
In other Enterprise 20/20 chapters and associated blog posts, were discussing a more balanced reality for 2020. Heres a summary of some of the communitys current views of the data center of the future. Please join in and add yours. Business processes will be composed of services running in data centers and services running in the cloud. We termed these hybrid business processes (see CIO 20/20 and Dev Center 20/20, as well as our blog post on The resurgence of the business process).
Companies will jettison many non-core, non-differentiating applications. Instead they will focus on business processes and applications that give them a competitive edge. This is discussed in detail in CIO 20/20. There is also a video featuring Geoffrey Moore, chief proponent of the concept, discussing this in Dev Center 20/20. The importance of Dev Ops, in particular the ability to release a new version of your key applications as often as twice a week. ! Dev Center 20/20 discusses this.
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V.1 Outlook
The business importance of Big Dataits collection, analysis and what you do with the information once its been analyzed. This is covered Introduction 20/20, CIO 20/20, and Marketing 20/20. How all enterprises will become specialist SaaS providers, supporting their customers and the smart devices they own. ! The technology section in Introduction 20/20 and CIO 20/20 go into more detail on this. A recent blog post expands on this concept. How technology systems will increasingly take routine decisions and actions by themselves, only involving us when something out of the ordinary occurs. This general concept will apply to the IT Operations department of 2020.
As shown in the diagram on the next page, many of the first level service desk actions that are today performed by humans will be handled by computers in 2020. See the technology section in Introduction 20/20 for! further discussion. In this chapter we focus on the practical aspects of IT Operations in 2020, and the road that is expected to lead there. We look at specific technology trends that the future will bring and how we can best prepare for their impact on IT Operations.
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V.1 Outlook
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V.1 Community Discussion Highlights
Future shock
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The Enterprise 20/20 Discussion Hub is full of comments, thoughts and predictions regarding the data center of the future. Its a topic just about everyone has an opinion about, and their ideas show the many ways the data center of 2020 could be run.
Thomas Abel has a different point of view: I think the data center of the future is virtual, managed via software and using globally distributed resources based on underlying contracts to be able to manage unforeseen peaks and needed resources on demand. ... With that you will run the biggest"data center in the world just with an app on your tablet used from your living room at home not knowing where the servers you are just using are located in the world, he writes. Data centers will become larger and software will be the glue that connects the users to the IT services, writes Luigi Tiano. Data centers will not differ per se; however, how we use them and who they service could potentially change. The physical data center will need to exist, however these larger data centers will service and support smaller virtual centers from a multitude of customers.
Data center directions

What, then, can we expect in the data center of 2020? Will they be completely virtual, with little to no hardware in sight? Will the data center be housed in one location or scattered about in different places and connected via mesh networks? Community members weigh in.
[Data centers will be] either more resilient to weather or more portable in nature, predicts James McGovern. They may have redundant power sources so that if you put them on the roof, they will not get blown over. If you put them in the basement, they will not ood. The future data center needs to be a location that is mobile in nature.
Megasystems
Could data centers be used to manage and optimize megasystems, or increasingly complex systems coupled with the massive amounts of information they produce? Community members believe much of the future of the data center is dependent on the scenarios in which megasystems are used. Yes, there is an interest to concentrate to benet from scale, writes Patrick DeMichel. The limit of compute is more a limit of moving the data
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Keeping in mind the systems improvement perspective [of megasystems] that seeks to improve ow and shorten cycle time, we can adapt systems to support and enable new ways of work over time, notes Horia Slusanschi. We need to develop a culture of continuous improvement, in which everyone keeps a sharp watch for opportunities to improve the overall system.
We need to develop a culture of continuous improvement, in which everyone keeps a sharp watch for opportunities to improve the overall system.!
Horia Slusanschi
System optimization depends rst and foremost on dening a desired goal."Your statement stems from it being notoriously difcult to tease uniform goals from the competing interactions in a complex system. Fortunately, most organizations do understand their desired outcomes and therefore can interact with complex systems in a fashion that allows them to shape the return. " Data centers have a major role to play in IT Operations of 2020. But how they look, work and interact to extract the most benet remains open for discussion. Go to the next Community Discussion page
Matt Groeninger believes the idea of optimizing megasystems is the wrong approach. Rather, he looks at it this way: The IT department of the future will need to drive the business practices which extract value for the organization from megasystems, both external and internal.
Fig F
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Development and Test Systems
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V.2 Development and Test Systems
The applications group wants its development and test systems to be spun up quicklyin mere hours. The way to meet this requirement is via the cloud, wherein developers choose from a catalog, their selection is up quickly, they are billed for what they use, and when they are done, the service is taken down and the resources reused elsewhere. These dev and test cloud services can be internally or externally provided. Which option you choose depends, in part, on the size of your organization. Large organizations can compete on scale with the external cloud providers, and they can also tailor the services they offer to the needs of the development groups, particularly in spinning up the systems to test against. Smaller companies may decide that running development and test systems is not a priority and thus will allow external cloud providers do it for them.
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As Chris Purcell, Manager, Cloud Go to Market and Enablement at HP, and Johnathan Sharp, VP of Marketing at HP partner Latisys, write in a recent post on Grounded in the Cloud, most enterprises wont necessarily go all in on cloud today, and that may still be the case in 2020. Most enterprises today dont need the whole enchilada, Purcell and Sharp write. They do have legacy hardware and applications (and competencies and talent and advantages!). They do have some workloads that need to be onpremises. Rather than the whole enchilada, they just need, if youll permit us to extend this metaphor almost beyond its breaking point, a side of nachos. Your choice also depends on the focus of your IT Operations group.
What is your IT Operations focus going to be?

In 1990, IT ran all the computing systems that the enterprise needed. Then, some enterprises went to outsourcing and someone else operated selected infrastructure components. By 2020, manyif not allservices are expected to be sourced from the cloud providers. The business processes and applications that generate differentiation for the enterprise probably will contain a mix of cloud and internally hosted services. By 2020, IT wont be able to do it all. If you try, you run the risk of letting down the business and you may set yourself up for an ongoing battle against external cloud providers. You need to ask yourself, In what ways does the business rely on IT to differentiate itself? This gives you your focus. For example, a differentiation of ultra-fast turnaround of new application functionality may result in a focus on an internal cloud for development and test. A differentiation of ultra-high uptime may mean a focus on production systems with very high uptime and fast recovery from disaster, which is tough to do with public cloud. Jim McGregor, founder of Tirias Research and former chief technology strategist for In-Stat, afrms that a hybrid cloud approach makes the most sense for enterprises in 2020. There are single-function examples like Netix that can sit in the public cloud, but the vast majority of Global 5000 companies will have hybrid business processes and applications for which some parts will run in the data center, and some parts will run in the cloud, McGregor says. Dev Center 20/20 and a recent blog post talk about the idea of hybrid business processes in more detail.
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What about PaaS (Platform as a Service)?
In broad terms, there are two types of PaaS offerings. There are focused PaaS offerings associated with specific SaaS products. For example, Force.com helps users create solutions around the SalesForce.com application. And there are more generic PaaS products like Microsofts Azure or Googles App Engine. There is a trend for generic PaaS platforms to add more and more abstraction, allowing programmers to focus simply on coding, without having to worry about exactly how their application will be deployed and managed. By 2020, we will likely have arrived at a point where a business analyst specifies performance, performance flexing limits, data recovery times, compliance, security and anti-virus scanning requirements and other KPIs, which the production platform then meets automatically. Such abstracted production platforms dont have to be sourced via public cloud. The vendors of these platforms often will offer the option to run their products in house. PaaS promises much, but its in its infancy right now.. But keep an eye on such generic PaaS offerings as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and VMWare and play with the technology by running a platform yourself to understand the public vs. internal tradeoffs.
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Focusing on Core Production Systems

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V.3 Focusing on Core Production Systems
IT departments sometimes want to own everything. But by 2020, the SaaS offerings for generic business processes such as HR, expenses and travel should be so good that an IT does everything approach will feel somewhat like defending a large and crumbling empire against attack on all fronts. In a word, impossible. In 2020, CIOs and IT decision makers need to be part of the planning process regarding the adoption of SaaS to make sure skilled operations staff dont disappear should non-core applications move out of IT. What is your CEOs view on those applications that dont differentiate his organization? Does he want his IT organization to focus on generating as much differentiation for the business as possible? What applications do the CIOs ofce and the applications team plan to send to SaaS?
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Production Systems to Run Hybrid Applications and Business Processes

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V.4 Production Systems to Run Hybrid Applications and Business Processes
The implications of hybrid business processes and applications on IT Operations are profound: You need to be able to manage application availability and performance from the data center, out to the cloud and back Coming from different countries, different again. Solving knotty performance problems in such a industries, from inside and outside IT, we situation will be difcult.
bringacross a unique perspective to the Youeach need security hybrid apps. For example, say someone is terminated from an organization effective question were proposing: immediately: The data center and the cloud systems need to know this simultaneously so the person cant do damage to systems that still allow him access.
You need to monitor end-to-end compliancehow can you certify combined compliance across both your data center and cloud services you dont own? You need to put in place automated provisioning of hybrid business processes and applications. How do you ensure the cloud provider has done what you ask? How do you back out automated changes against a cloud service should you need to roll back? You must be able to hand off incident, problem and SLA service management to multiple cloud providers. You need to ensure backup and recovery of data at the application level across a hybrid landscape.
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When making new management system purchases, you now need to ensure you can integrate them with your hybrid applications and cloud suppliers. Start to play with hybrid applications ahead of being asked to run them. ! As McGregor observes: What you believe you can do in theory may not be achievable in reality. Data communication bandwidth may limit the use of cloud, he says, offering an example: If you have to pass masses of data between two process steps, one in the data center and the other in the cloud, the theoretical advantage of cloud may be eroded. You need to have trained hybrid deployment experts by the time the application development team comes to you with its first hybrid application or business process.
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If you have to pass masses of data between two process steps, one in the data center and the other in the cloud, the theoretical advantage of cloud may be eroded.
Jim McGregor, founder of Tirias Research and former chief technology strategist for In-Stat
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New ways of working

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The cloud offers myriad possibilities for companies to approach operations. Even companies adopting hybrid cloud models ! stand to benets in the way of reduced cost and complexity, ! not to mention the manpower needed to manage on-premise data centers and applications.
notes James McGovern. What differs is the logo on the paycheck of the person doing it. What shouldnt differ are things such as SLA, security/ incident response, capacity planning, etc. Moving IT from doing everything to doing nothing? Or, in other words, you do not need anymore IT since you work directly with your cloud service provider? Maybe the answer is yes regarding things IT does today. But there are new or other activities needed to support people regarding IT services coming from the cloud, writes Thomas Abel. The activities done by IT people today will be reduced, disappear or change. The IT manager [role ]might become more project-related than today. Job proles will change.
Hands off
As IT operations then become less an on-premise activity and move (at least partially) into the cloud, will IT Ops adopt a completely hands-off model, instead outsourcing anything feasible? I think the consumerization of IT (or BYOD, or whatever you want to call it) is a market response to traditional ITs inability to respond nimbly to business needs, writes Joshua Brown."Now, the emergence of cloud solutions is not fully mature, particularly from a security perspective, nor are consumer-grade solutions or electronics necessarily appropriate to meet security needs but they *do* meet users functional needs.
Shifting gears
Will companies move completely away from an IT does everything approach of operations to a cloud-based model? Or ! will certain tasks remain in-house because of legal or technological restrictions? Community members have their say. Whether it is done in-house or via an external third party, it is still IT,
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IT needs to take a page from this playbook."Instead of being the department of no, they need to observe what users are trying to achieve and nd ways to enable those activities. In other words, IT needs to be an enabler for the business.
which we then backup on an unlimited storage medium. Its not the size but the ceremony that bothers us. Go to the next Community Discussion page
Instead of being the department of no, [IT] needs to nd ways to be an enabler for the business.!
Joshua Brown
Why is my email is so limited? This is ridiculous; I can have much more from external free services! I want the same tools at home and work, and I am ready to pay for my own internal email because it causes me so much trouble, writes Patrick DeMichel. Same thing for search and creativity tools: Our tools are prehistoric, and a huge waste of our potential. McGovern responds: What is silly is not the size of the mailbox in the strict sense but the simple fact that we have a limited mailbox that each and every one of us empties by moving it to local folders
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Availability, Performance and Flexing Systems
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IV.5 Availability, Performance and Flexing Systems
By 2020, IT infrastructure should be great at guring out where performance problems lie and automatically adjusting for them. Better still: The infrastructure should be able to preemptively grab what it needs before any performance problem can occur because it will have the intelligence to predict what resources it will need in different situations. By 2020, we will have arrived at converged infrastructure across the whole data center. The data center will be a huge mass of resources that can be applied to any application as required. The key to such performance exing is a business-aware resource allocator. There always will be nite limits on your data center resources, but this business-aware resource allocator can decide who has the most business-critical need for resources at any given time. There are a number of things you can do in preparation for these systems designed to automatically performance ex: When making IT management buying decisions, ensure the technology is able to use intelligent analysis to truly know where problems lie. Automation is relatively easy once you know where the problems are. Without this knowledge, automation is more dangerous than helpful.
Look for systems that automatically adjust resources, predictively, based on previous behavior patterns. Business analysts should look for a business-aware resource allocator that can front applications requests for more (or fewer) resources. Formulate a process with the business by which the rules for such a resource allocator will be determined. Experiment with cloud bursting to learn what it is good for, and when bandwidth limitations make its use impractical. If you believed the marketing hype around bursting, youd think that it required no effort to set up and could be used for any part of any application. This is simply not trueat least, not in 2012, and possibly not by 2020. Look for generic PaaS systems that allow you to specify the run-time characteristics of the platform upon which applications will run performance, performance exing, compliance checking, security, anti-virus, backup and recovery speeds, and so on. We are not there yetbut we will be by the time we get to 2020.
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Dev Ops
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V.6 Dev Ops
Dev Center 20/20 talks about the business need to move to ! twice-weekly application updates by 2020. While external cloud providers may crow about your hybrid business processes, ! dont forget they are also your competition. Nothing will give them a greater advantage than the ability to put applications into production with lightning speed. You must embrace the concept of Dev Ops to support this twiceweekly frequency of new application deployment: Get your teams objectives changed. The dual objectives of dont screw up and be as cheap as possible dont help you achieve Dev Ops. You must have speed of app deployment in your objectives, and make sure the development team has this same goal.
Move to a single model that is used in application development, testing and, with run-time bindings, in production. Find development, test and production management solutions that support this concept. You need a single model because it cuts out remodeling work, and makes it possible to automate the steps in the full application lifecycle. The single model concept is key to the IT Operations side of Dev Ops because it means that when applications move to production youll be able to manage their performance, compliance, security, change, backup and recovery and so on instantly.
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V.6 Dev Ops
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Big Data and Unstructured Data
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V.7 Big Data and Unstructured Data
Everyone agrees we will see huge growth in Big Data by 2020 an increase in the granularity of the information that is stored and the continuous amassing of unstructured audio, video and social media. By 2020, its expected that computers will be able to hold huge amounts of data in memory using such technology as memristors. Gary Thome, VP of Strategy for servers at HP, believes there will be a shift in emphasis from using IT infrastructure to support applications to using IT infrastructure to support data and its analysis.
The economics of keeping data around to dig into later are getting better in the sense that theres business justication to keep and mine data. Enterprises need to leverage the data they havewhat we will be able to get out of it are things we cant even imagine today, Thome says. That means that by 2020, there is expected to be a strong demand for IT Operations staff who can architect big data infrastructure systems.
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V.7 Big Data and Unstructured Data
Enterprises need to leverage the data they havewhat we will be able to get out of it are things we cant even imagine today.
Gary Thome, VP of Strategy for servers at HP
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V.7 Community Big Data and Discussion Unstructured Highlights Data
Big Data, big questions

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The emergence of Big Data poses some important questions: Can IT operations handle the inux of Big Data and unstructured data? How will it harness the wealth of informationand business opportunitythat can be derived from Big Data? ! What processes must change to take advantage of what ! Big Data promises?
I dont know why we are calling Big Data BIG when it is a microcosm of the size it will be in 2020, and when the largest segment of data will actually be media. By the time 2020 arrives we will be talking about a different form of equivalency, notes manjit 20/20. Big Data is a tricky buzzword. At this point, it is evident that data will continue to grow exponentially, writes Luigi Tiano. Very soon, Big Data will simply be called data. He adds: Data collection, processing and consumption will grow at an exponential rate year after year."Many companies seem to think that this can become a burden to manage all this data. Big Data should not be considered a challenge. In reality, it is about the opportunity that today we can turn this huge amount of data into business insight and value. Thomas Abel believes the issue with Big Data wont be the amount of information, but how the information can be read and interpreted. However, he says the benets of harnessing Big Data far outweigh the obstacles. The challenge will be to dene the new rules for analysis by the business to get the needed information. Rules like never possible before can be dened and applied to the available data sources. With that, marketing, sales and others have real-time information available to react and manage their processes ad hoc, being able even to make markets and to act instead of reacting to what happens in the markets with huge delay.
Go big or go home
Community members believe not only that companies must be able to manage Big Data in all its forms, but also we have only begun to imagine what can be gleaned from such massive amounts ! of information.
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Ownership status
As Big Data and cloud services impact IT operations, the way enterprises handle testing and development will change as well, community members believe. So who will own the dev, test and production systems?
and segments. The process to dene your products starts with your customer segmentation. Big Data poses as many questions as answers, but community members see a bright future in Big Data. Same goes for the clouds role in testing and development systems. Who knows? Maybe end users one day will run their own basement testing and development environments. Go to the next Community Discussion page
Very soon, Big Data will simply be called data.!

Joshua Brown
In 2020, I hope to have cloud capabilities running in my basement and hope to be running 100 percent open source development tools locally, writes James McGovern. Compute capacity in terms of home networking will also grow where we can rent out idle time on our home infrastructure as well. I think you will have all kind of variants and combinations, believes Thomas Abel. You should dene packages of combinations optimally adapted regarding services and pricing to your customer groups and
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Enter the Enterprise Infrastructure Store
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V.8 Enter the Enterprise Infrastructure Store
In Dev Center 20/20, we talk about the rise of the Enterprise App Store. We also discuss this further in a recent blog post. It is critical that IT Operations puts in place an equivalent store for infrastructure services for use by application development teams. The Enterprise Infrastructure Store should contain platforms (Jive, for example) that can be used for the creation of solutions. It should contain the services developers can order for development, test, staging and production environments. And it must offer billing that reects usage so IT costs to the business can ex with demand.
You need to establish a process around the selection of this stores contents. You will get requests from the business and from application development teams. You need to respond quickly to these requests, while ensuring that you keep a good balance across your whole portfolio of store content. In addition, you also will need to govern your digital suppliers.
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Digital Supplier Governance

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V.9 Digital Supplier Governance
By 2020, enterprise IT will have hundreds of digital suppliers suppliers of cloud services at the application, platform and infrastructure levels. You will need robust, fair, optimized supplier management across this portfolio of suppliers: Put in place a supplier selection process that is fast; otherwise the business will make your decisions for you. That said, you must balance speed of response against the need to make decisions that are safe for the enterprise.
Pay attention to your overall service costs and the relative costs of digital suppliers. If there is a market for a cloud service that has a low switching cost, you may nd you can get the service cheaper from a different supplier. Set up ongoing digital supplier monitoring with respect to service performance, responsiveness to service management process requests (incident, problem, change, etc), compliance, privacy and security. Without these checks in place, you run the risk of your own business suffering from a weakness of one of your digital suppliers.
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Everyone Will Become a SaaS Provider
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V.10 Everyone Will Become a SaaS Provider
In Introduction 20/20 and CIO 20/20, we talk about how most enterprises will become specialist SaaS providers. We also expand on this in a recent blog post. These SaaS offerings take the form of applications that users can access to add value to the enterprises products. Also, there will be an increase in the number of smart devices that will call home for information and link to other smart devices. The home that they call also will be a cloud service.
As the IT Operations department, you have to decide what part you want to play in running these SaaS offerings. Do you want run the SaaS service, taking in the revenue? Or, should a businesscomputing unit do it, with your guidance? Or, should a service provider do it for youif youre a small company, the service provider probably will have the scalability and billing systems that you may not be able to justify putting in place yourself.
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Explosive Net Growth Requires Continued Focus on Security and Privacy

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V.11 Explosive Net Growth Requires Continued Focus on Security and Privacy
It is estimated that by 2020, there will be around 5 billion people with access to the internetnearly double the number accessing the Net today, which, according to Internet World Stats, is about 2.5 billion.1 The majority of this growth is expected to come from Africa and the Middle and Far East. Even if a portion of these new Internet users becomes hackers, there will be millions of new hackers in the world. The Internet is already a hostile place. By 2020, it is going to be far more so, says Patrick"Goldsack, a"Distinguished Technologist in HPs"Cloud and Security Laboratories.
The Internet may be such a hostile place by 2020, that there may ! be a number of walled garden Internets, shielded from each other. Goldsack offers mobile apps as a primary example: By 2020, ! I would guess that there will be something like 20 million mobile applications available. Malware is already starting to creep into mobile apps. With this huge increase in app numbers, the malware problem on mobile devices will be very serious unless we take ! active steps to control it.
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The Internet may be such a hostile place by 2020, that there may be a number of walled garden Internets, shielded from each other.
Patrick Goldsack, Distinguished Technologist, HP"Cloud and Security Laboratories
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Despite these threats to mobile devices, employees will increasingly insist on being able to bring their own devices to work (BYOD, as its called). Companies most likely will be inclined to allow this, but they cannot allow such dirty devices to pollute corporate networks, Goldsack says. Devices will have to be fully virtualized, with support from trusted hardware to enforce and validate the separation of personal and corporate data. The many personalities that users need to adopt, both work and personal, will be kept well isolated. This will enable an enterprise to manage their partitions and the applications within them without affecting, or being affected by, the partitions used for personal use such internet browsing or playing games.
By 2020, business processes will be moved to the cloud, using software or infrastructure services. These services may, in turn, call other cloud services, creating chains of dependency, some of which may be hidden to the users. This disaggregation of IT has signicant implications: Providing security and privacy, tracing accountability and ensuring compliance through these chains of calls is going to be challengingbut essential. With the move to the cloud, well probably end up with very large, homogenous cloud providers. This is a perfect target for hackers, maybe through infecting the open source management tools that cloud providers use, or via rogue cloud provider employees, Goldsack says. After all, the scale of the impact is in direct relationship to the effort someone will be willing to expend, and an attack could take down thousands of services in one go. Roger Lawrence, Chief Technologist, HP Strategic Enterprise Services, raises this concern in a recent post in Grounded in the Cloud.
Cloud computing differs from Traditional IT in the control of managing risks to the business. This is now delegated to a commercial agreement, i.e. a contract with the suppliers.!
Roger Lawrence, Chief Technologist, HP Strategic Enterprise Services
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Along the same line, by 2020, there are expected to be more than a trillion sensors, actuators and other smart devices, many of which will be physically accessible to the public. This leaves them vulnerable to various types of attack, including physical tampering, Goldsack adds. They could be made to feed us false data or could be given false commands. Also, unless the rmware for smart devices is well protected, it could be modied by a hacker. This is changing quickly, as the business computing teams that build and support the smart devices and sensors of the future take cues from IT Ops and proactively secure these smart devices to protect ! users privacy.
In CIO 20/20, we talk about the disaggregation of the enterprise and the increased use of afliates in project teams and supply chains. One of the currencies of collaboration for these teams is unstructured information, such as documents. We dont want everyone to see everything, Goldsack says. So we have to create sharing models that allow us to dene policies regarding who in our collaboration circle can see what and when.
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IT Operations and security

Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. With all the talk about Big Data, cloud computing, unstructured data and user-centric testing and development, its only natural that security would become a hot topic. Security touches on all points of IT operations, from data center management to application delivery, and its a critical element in any companys data strategy.
Community member James McGovern, however, has a different point of view. There are many that believe a Walled Garden doesnt just keep people out, but locks people in and therefore is never a solution in a society that values liberty and freedom over security, he writes. Be fearful of advocates of these types of strategies as they may be the enemy from within.
Waging cyberwar
But community member Mike Shaw wonders whether we are on the verge of cyberwar, as factions worldwide perpetrate nefarious acts on corporate networks and users. Yes, always, answers beemaraj. We should adopt/implement effective security mechanisms to protect our data. We can think of multi-layered authentication with the following combination (probably more) thus making our network/data more secure: 1. What you know (PIN, password); 2. What you have (ActivKey, OATH token); 3. What you are (ngerprint, iris). But please let not the user pay the price for security, urges Thomas Abel. Security checks in 2020 should be done automatically without [users] having to do anything.
Internet Edens?
Sometimes, even the best-laid plans arent enough for cybercriminals bent on inltrating and destroying corporate networks. Some believe a walled gardens approach for the Internet will help keep networks somewhat safe.
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He adds: Since business processes get more and more digitized and sensitive for cyber attacks, the security risk has to be strongly prioritized and managed by each company, government or organization. There is not very much time to prepare for that since cyberwars are already here. To some, the idea that their networks are being targeted by cybercriminals is beyond imagination. To others, its obvious IT Operations must play a major role in ensuring their networks are protected from attacks, both inside and outside the company walls.
Fig
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Operational Technology Merges with IT Infrastructure

Today, the systems that control our factories, transport systems and! power plants use infrastructure that is separate from that of IT systems.! But it looks as though by 2020 they will use the same infrastructure.
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V.12 Operational Technology Merges with IT Infrastructure
Every automobile, every trellis in a vineyard, every end of a corn row everything in every industry will have sensor networks.!
Stephen DeWitt, senior vice president and general manager of the Enterprise Group at HP
Further, by 2020, we should expect to see a large number of high density sensor arrays in use for trafc, environmental, re and crime control, to name but a few. These sensor arrays will send their data back to central control systems in the cloud. Every automobile, every trellis in a vineyard, every end of a row of corn everything in every industry will have sensor networks, says Stephen DeWitt, senior vice president and general manager of the Enterprise Group at HP. Its estimated that by 2020 there will be more than 1.3 trillion sensors out there. There will also be more than 28 billion devices3 held by the 7 billion-plus people in the world.4 To prepare for this convergence, make sure you have someone tracking the merger of operational technology with IT infrastructure. Operational technology has special requirements, real-time responsiveness, and you may need to update networking infrastructure and other technologies to support them.
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Merge ahead
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. The impending merger between operational technology and IT infrastructure will bring to light many of the concepts discussed in IT Operations 20/20 about Big Data and unstructured data. Community members agree: The question is not whether its going to happen, but when.
he believes. Early cloud companies have realized that the game of commoditization has caused almost no one to make money. As compute and storage density increase, consumers will have more power in their cell phones in 2020 than the entire cloud today. Users who have personal computers that can store terabytes of data will now have sufcient compute available locally and need not worry about lower-level infrastructure. Applications will still be challenging to deliver and therefore the value will be in SaaS. James Bertsch sees a different scenario. Networking and the cloud will become the dominant theme. Disaster recovery is handled by moving everything to the cloud, he writes, adding, Data centers disappear, and application development moves to consulting rms."The IT staff disappears entirely from the organization. You both have very interesting thoughts on this topic, comments Doug Nelson. Unfortunately, you cant both be right, or can you?"I think what youve spelled out will actually all be provided in a hybrid model. The cloud isnt dead, but it isnt truly protable.
Other predictions
Community members have other ideas about the future of IT Operations, especially around cloud computing and related services. Community member James McGovern offers his list of IT predictions, including the belief that by 2020, cloud will no longer be a conversation point. Rather, services will rule the day. The cloud will be irrelevant. Software-as-a-service will be a key area of focus,
Does size matter?

Does the future of IT Operations change depending on the size of the company? Community member Thomas Abel
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believes it doesnt make sense to group IT functions based on how big or small a company is. I think the criterion to distinguish is not small or large IT, but which kind of services and how many services IT has to provide to which kind of customers, he notes. IT should classify their services and customers in categories and manage their service decision (public cloud, private cloud, other) based on the category of their considered service and customer (not important if it is a large or small IT).
Typical applications or services from production systems that might not run in the public cloud might be HR applications with their services or nancial reports as a service, writes ! Thomas Abel. Its difcult to predict the future of IT Operations. but the Enterprise 20/20 community has a lot of fun trying. Go to the next Community Discussion page
The criterion is not small or large IT, but which kind of services and how many services IT has to provide to which kind of customers. !
Thomas Abel
A big production
Perhaps more important than size of the company, community members predict, will be the types of production systems that
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Moving Toward ! IT Ops of the Future
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V.13 Moving Toward IT Ops of the Future
The year 2020 wont arrive in a sudden ash and puff of smoke, Harry Potter style. We will evolve toward it. But knowing where we are likely to be by 2020 allows us to take steps on the road leading there. One important step is choosing the right focus for IT Operations. The days of everything computing being run by IT are gone. By 2020, a lot of your screen-watching, run book-viewing staff likely will be gone. So will practically all of your rst-line service desk staff, who likely will have been replaced by automated systems. Instead, you will need hybrid application experts, big data experts and on the like. We therefore need to gradually but permanently change the skills prole of the IT Operations team to prepare for 2020. Its also a good idea to assemble your own marketing team. Cloud providers will sell heavily to your CIO, CFO and CEO. For these executives to get a balanced view of cloud and its role in hybrid IT, you will need to be able to counter the marketing might of the cloud providers with your own marketing muscle.
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Future cast
Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort with our community members, and their comments help shape each chapter well after its published. On the following pages we take the pulse of the community and highlight some thoughts from the Discussion Hub. IT Operations 20/20 has provided much food for thought in the way companies will run their IT operations in the future. Should companies in-source or outsource? Whats best: private, public or hybrid cloud? Will IT Operations exist as we know it today?
IT operations will provide and use apps to analyze Big Data and make the analysis results available for the IT operations itself and the business to drive the IT operations and the business in a better and more target-oriented way, writes Thomas Abel. The possibilities and opportunities to make business based on Big Data analysis are amazing and nearly endless. Doug Nelson offers a different point of view: This is correct, but we also must now start to look at the overall impact this has on consumers." The more Big Data is captured and tracked the more consumers push back. When the rubber hits the road, IT Operations has to support the delivery of services to the business, adds Marc Wilkinson. Big Analytics help with all three, by handling the volume and mixture of structured and unstructured data or by providing the right information in an easy-to-consume manner.
Big Data redux

Community members believe Big Data will play a critical part in the future of IT Operations. Whats less certain is how Big Data and the way we interact with data will change the face of IT Operations. IT operations will provide and use apps to analyze Big Data and make the analysis results available for the IT operations itself and the business to drive the IT operations and the business in a better and more target-oriented way, writes Thomas Abel. The possibilities and opportunities to make business based on Big Data analysis are amazing and nearly endless.
Be prepared
Will Big Data be able to help IT Operations in other areas as well? Community member James McGovern wonders whether organizations will be prepared to meet the challenges brought on by Big Data and other emerging technologies.
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Chief among those challenges, McGovern notes, is rapid deployment of applications. Ever read into how fast the likes of Facebook and Netix can deploy new functionality to their website? Compare this to how long it takes to release an enterprise application in many corporations, he writes.
organizations have been around for a very long time and their infrastructure and processes are deeply seated in historical processes, where the new technology rms arent entrenched in the old processes and by their actual organization age arent tied into legacy systems."Match legacy system with outdated and corporate processes and you arrive at slow movement and releases. Daniel Martin posits: If your customers are big business, I can tell you they do not like or want rapid change. Rapid or urgent is measured by them in weeks or months, while the normal life time of a product (software or hardware) is measured in years. IT Operations in 2020 promise a future of different possibilities opportunities and challenges. Community members believe IT Operations stands to benet from the new technologies and strategies ooding the enterprise. How a company reacts to the changes, however, will determine its ultimate success or failure.
If your customers are big business, they do not like or want rapid change. But if your customers are normal people, then you need to be very fast. !
Daniel Martin
The way I see this is that the actual issue isnt the differences between rapidly deployed software and enterprise software but the differences between new technology rms" vs. old school technology rms, writes"Doug Nelson. Old school organizations
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V.14 References
1. http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm 2. HP Labs. 3. http://imsresearch.com/press-release/ Internet_Connected_Devices_Approaching_10_Billion_to_exceed_28_Bill ion_by_2020&cat_id=210&type=LatestResearch 4. http://www.ifpri.org/publication/world-population-projections-2020
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Outlook
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VI.1 Outlook
Of all the things technology is expected to revolutionize by 2020, perhaps the biggest is this thing we call work. The way in which we create, collaborate and communicate has changed dramatically since the personal computer became a xture in the workplace. Job roles have shifted, tasks have changed and our reliance on technology has reshaped how and even where we spend our workdays.
Globalization, technology and the changing demographics of the workforce all are redefining what it means to work. We see this every day. But there are likely more changes to come. How will your enterprise respond?
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VI.1 Outlook
We developed this chapter in direct response to the members of the Enterprise 20/20 community, who asked for it. They engaged in lively discussions and asked when the ebook would look at the future of employees. A grassroots effort sprang up in the early days of the community, resulting in 36 separate discussions and more than 260 comments from community members. Conversation topics ranged from whether companies will even provide the next generation of employees with desks to how companies will address the growing obesity epidemic.
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VI.1 Outlook
Throughout this chapter, we have featured comments from our community members, and we encourage you to add your thoughts ! and opinions. A truly crowd-sourced undertaking, this chapter will ! grow and develop with continued community participation. ! Please join the conversation.
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VI.1 Outlook
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What is Changing How We Work?
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VI.2 What is Changing How We Work?
From the early days of PCs and then the Internet, technology already has changed the way we work. Employees are more productive and have instant access to virtually any kind of information they need to get the job done. By 2020, advancing globalization, collaboration and mobility are expected to take these trends a whole lot further.
As globalization and collaboration increase, the lines between work life and home life may continue to blur to the point where you have to wonder if a 24-hour workday will become the norm. The more connected we become, the more likely this scenario looks. What, then, of our personal lives? Will we as employees become slaves to the machine, unable to separate ourselves from the business? Enterprise 2020 community members say, Yesand no. By 2020, todays vision of a full-time employee working an eight-hour day in a company ofce is expected to be the exception rather than the rule. In the future, a companys best workers may be globally disparate contract personnel who collaborate at all hours of the dayto the benet of both the enterprise and its employees.
The global marketplace demands constant attention. Companies have recognized that the best way to ndand hold ontomarket dominance requires 24/7 attention to the business. Suppliers in Bangalore must receive the same mindshare as the shipping company in the next state, even if India is 10 hours ahead of New York.
Fig
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As Page Murray, vice president of Worldwide Consumer Marketing in HPs Printing and Personal Systems group, sums up, employees of 2020 want everything connected, but in a smart way. Some activities employees do online should remain their own business and others should fall under the purview of the company. To accomplish this, Murray says, the idea of an online prole that goes with employees no matter what device theyre using to log inand the location from which theyre logging inwill become commonplace. I should be able to sit down and type in my information and have access to everything. ! The reason, Murray says, to allow employees of 2020 easy access from anywhere is to help balance the fact of globalization and the 24hour workday with the fact that employees will undoubtedly have to mix their work and personal lives to achieve balance.
I know that in 2020, Im going to be doing phone calls for work at ten oclock at night or six oclock in the morning because thats when I can speak with Asia. There will have to be some new rules of engagement about what is purely personal time. The answer cant be you have to be there at all timesthats not terribly rewarding.! Managing that, Murray, adds, falls partly under the umbrella of technology and partly under how the next generation of employees ! are trained and managed. Well get to a point, he says, where managers wont judge employees by whether theyre the rst in and the last to leave. Its not only about what you do, but how you do it. You manage your own timeits about getting the job done really well, Murray says.
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The Workplace of the Future
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VI.3 The Workplace of the Future
Look inside the enterprise today and its often difcult to nd real people doing their jobs. Remember those lively conversations around the water cooler? Not happening any more. Once bustling corporate campuses now are practically deserted as employees ask to work elsewhere and companies look for ways to trim budgets and facilities footprints. A recent study by Deloitte noted that between 30 percent and 40 percent of physical workspaces are vacant at any given moment of a traditional business day. Companies are paying for space that isnt occupied, not to mention the power, heating, cooling and infrastructure needs associated with that space. The same Deloitte study noted that a 4,400-employee company spending an average of $12,000 per seat per year could save up to $8 million per year by reducing the total space just 14 percent. For these reasons, more companies are adopting exible working schedules and encouraging more employees to work where they feel most comfortable and productiveat home, the corner coffee shop, a public library or even co-working spaces.
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Will the next generation of employees require a permanent desk?
I do not need a permanent desk. I need high-speed
Dont discount the value of the ofce, however: A study conducted by Knoll on the prole of the changing workplace noted centralized ofces arent going away, but rather they will be different from ofces of today, with a greater variety of work settings to support ranges of workers. The corporate ofce will transition to a meeting or collaboration center for critical face-to-face meetings, such as customer sales and training, intensive work sessions and social events, according to the study.2
internet access and quality tools to have virtual team meetings. I am measured on the results of my work for my customers and not on the time sitting at a permanent desk. Thomas Abel, community member
Fig
Relaxing rules on employee location and the growing prevalence of technologies that not only support but also encourage telecommuting and remote working are likely to turn location into a nonissue. In other words, employees should have the freedom to work wherever they want. And technologies to come should serve to loosen the corporate tether even further.
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ITs Role in the Mobile Working Lifestyle
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VI.4 ITs Role in the Mobile Working Lifestyle
the workforce of the future wont consist of traditional full-time Today, most corporate workers need a laptop or other mobile employees but rather stables of contract or work-for-hire experts, who computing device, a reliable Internet connection and a phone may or may not need full access to a companys infrastructure. IT must to get the majority of their work done. The next generation of be able to manage these varying degrees of access. workers in all likelihood will require video connections, ubiquitous access to social media tools and a way to switch Coming from different countries, different industries, IT also must adopt an app-store mentality, enabling employees to pick seamlessly between audio, video and computer without from inside and outside IT, we each bring a uniqueand choose from one central repository which apps they need to do skipping a beat. The Millennialsthe newest generation of their jobs effectively. And employees of 2020salaried workers or employees and those who will make up at least half of the perspective to the question were proposing: contractorswont settle for a generic palette of apps; they will most workforce in 2020are coming, and IT must work now to be likely want to build their app list they same way they build a music prepared for a workforce that has vastly different ideas about playlist. working and productivity. So what can the workforce of 2020 expect from IT, and what can IT expect from the workforce of 2020? For starters, IT must be agile, with the ability to turn on and off services to meet the needs of the company and its workers. Some theorize
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Paul Congdon, an HP Fellow in the Networking and Communications Lab at HP Labs, believes even seemingly simple tasks such as the way we obtain wireless access will change. Bring Your Own Device is real, and each device comes with its own service carrier contract, he notes. Employees will have access to their work resources through an Internet-style model. So when I come into the enterprise and work, why wouldnt I do things the same way? As a consequence, why does networking IT even need to provide the connection anymore? Congdon points to the Hotspot 2.0 initiative as a possible route to connectivity in the future, with companies dismantling their in-house wireless networks in favor of a service provider structure that handles the trafc. Other technologies, such as virtualization, cloud services and resource sharing will also make it possible to streamline the workplace, giving employees the freedom to work anywhere, anytime. And the promise of new technologies such as wearable computing devices (see sidebar) will most likely have an even greater impact on the way employees and IT both approach the concept of work.
Making technology even more portable

Imagine walking into a workspace, conference room or coffee shop and being able to access your computer les without carrying a laptop, tablet or smartphone. Rather, youll view your desktop through an eyepiece and manipulate the content via hand gestures and a exible keyboard built into the sleeve of your shirt or jacket. In the futureperhaps even by 2020computing devices are expected to become much more personal, to the point where we will wear separate components of the devices. These future devices will be separate functions. Users will have a family of personal devices where one provides the cellular connection and another is an ear- or eyepiece and still another is for text entry, says John Apolostopolous, Director of the Mobile and Immersive Experience Lab at HP Labs. These will be separate customized devices that all have their own purpose. Such devices will need ubiquitous network access and will enable users to create a completely customized computing experience. We will see increase in diversity in the types of personal devices, and they will help satisfy a diverse range of needs, he says. One of the technologies impacting this new computing realm is the development of electronics and displays using plastic rather than glass, Apolostopolous points out. Plastic is thinner, exible and lower cost. It also will allow us to have immersive displays in the future.
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We need large displays to have visual informationand exponentially larger numbers of feeds coming to us. So we need ways to quickly be able to consume this information, he adds. In the future, such large, immersive, exible displays likely will be based in conference rooms to enable employees to pull in all kinds of content, look at, interact with, shift and model it. With Big Data for example, its better if you can visualize complex data as 3D information that you can move around from different viewpoints and look for different patterns. You can do that if you have large displays and the ability to interact in a natural way, Apolostopolous says.
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FF
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The Results-only Work Environment

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VI.5 The Results-only Work Environment
IT also will have a role in the changing face of productivity, which will likely be measured not by how many hours an employee puts in (the need to address a global marketplace lays waste to that concept) but rather what an employee accomplishes. According to Gartner, through 2020, the core value lies in non-routine processes, uniquely human, analytical or interactive contributions that result in words like discovery, innovation, teaming, leading, selling and learning.3 IT will be a critical element to enabling such productivity. In 2020, the idea that a productive employee is one who puts in a 40hour workweek will no longer apply. A few companies (electronics retailer Best Buy is one example) have switched to a Results-Only Work Environment, in which employees choose what they want to do, when they want to do it, as long as the work gets done. The idea is to shift the emphasis away from quantity of time worked to quality of time worked, giving rise not only to increased productivity but also increased employee satisfaction and decreased employee turnover.4
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Technologies designed to increase productivity that today are in their relative infancy, such as mobile unied communications, are expected to mature by 2020, making it even easier for employees to work in an environment that works for them. Mobile unied communications in particular is the killer app for the enterprise, Congdon notes. Its a technology thats moving us more toward a virtual human experience. Such a concept may have been unconventional when Best Buy adopted ROWE in 2002, but by 2020 Enterprise 2020 community members believe this approach will be more the rule than the exception. And this is exactly what the Millennials will prefer. Do you see any benets to a Results-Only Work Environment?
On the argument of whether to abolish timesheets:

The employment paradigm has for decades been
centered on control, which is necessary if trust does not exist. Trust will not exist if people are not incented to produce. Technology liberates contribution and, to some extent, control. But a new incentive culture has to be implemented that is based not on deliverables but on outcomes.
Robin Barrett, community member
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Studies show that different generations want different ways of learning and different rewards , says Tracy Keogh, executive vice president, Human Resources, HP. Some people emphasize timeoff rewards more than nancial rewardsso once again youre going to have to tailor the work environment, benets and compensation to take those things into account to create the right package for that individual.
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HR 2020: Managing the Workforce

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VI.6 HR 2020: Managing the Workforce
By 2020, there will be ve generations working side by side, according to a survey of roughly 1,200 employees and managers by Future Workplace. Because of this, organizations are looking at and understanding they have to develop generational intelligence, says Jeanne Meister, Partner, Future Workplace, and co-author of The 2020 Workplace: How Innovative Companies Attract, Develop & Keep Tomorrow's Employees Today. They need to relook at their whole talent management from acquiring to performance and feedback, and employee development to accommodate multiple generations. The group expected to have the most impact on the workplace is the generation of employees known as the Millennials. In 2011 consulting rm PricewaterhouseCoopers published a report titled, Millennials at Work: Reshaping the Workplace, which postulated that this next generation of employees will force a change in the corporate mindset. Millennials tend to be uncomfortable with rigid corporate structures and turned off by information silos, the report noted. Who are these Millennials and why will they have such an impact on the workplace? They are the rst generation to grow up with broadband Internet access, PCs and mobile devices. They have never known a world in which Google, DVDs, smartphones and instant messaging did not exist. They are digital natives, brought up with an appetite for technology and speaking in LOLs, LMAOs and OMGs.
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For years people have been saying Millennials are going to change everything , but to some extent companies have changed Millennials more than Millennials have changed companies, says Keogh. The difference, of course, is technology. The thing thats going to ip things is this generations coming in communicate in a different way, they weigh in on things in a different way. As the rst truly connected generation, Millennials have expectations for the workplace that will force companies to change the way they regard their employees. Millennials expect to have a varied career with constant feedback from their employer, according to the PwC report. Whats more, they expect to move within the company ranks more quickly than their predecessors. Millennials also tend to job-hop, a trait that once was regarded as a bad thing. The new generation, however, has embraced jobhopping as a way to advance their career more quickly than paying their dues at one company. In fact, 91 percent of respondents in a survey by Future Workplace said they expect to
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Companies are reimagining their delivery of information They are using technology such as internal social networks to form communities and promote more social learning.
Jeanne Meister, partner, Future Workplace
So what does this mean for the enterprise in 2020? For one, the human resources function within the enterprise must transform to accommodate the newest generation of employees. Adopting a culture of providing consistent feedback, accepting and even embracing social media technologies in the workplace and encouraging exible working arrangements are just some of the things the enterprise of 2020 must do to attract Millennials into their workforce.
Training, too, is something the HR department of 2020 is investing in for this generation of constant learners. But the staid stand-and-deliver method of teaching is giving way to more social forms of learning, dependent on technology such as streaming video, wikis, blogs ! and more. Companies are reimagining their delivery of information, says Meister. There is the belief that companies have to shoulder the responsibility of teaching their workers, and so training budgets keep going up. And they are using technology such ! as internal social networks to form communities and promote more social learning. Millennials wont be the only generation working in 2020, however. Baby Boomers and Gen Xers combined still will make up about half the workforce. In fact, data from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that by 2020, 115 million workers will be age 50 or older.
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Having an older workforce denitely has its advantages: Multiple studies have shown older workers as a whole are more dedicated to the organization and the work, tend to jobhop less and have more positive work values such as arriving to work on time. As Keogh points out, Millennials are not the only ones who reect the cultural and social changes brought about in their generation. Its not just Millennials that have changed, she says. its all people.
Companies are recognizing its not a bad thing to have an age-diverse workforce, adds Meister. Since older workers have so much institutional knowledge companies dont want to hurry them out the door. However, older workers generally tend to have more health considerations. By 2020, the youngest Baby Boomers will be 56 years old. Companies will have to make provisions to adjust to this aging workforcequiet working rooms and personal light settings are two examples.
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Quite possibly, more costly to the workplace is the obesity epidemic affecting our workers. In the United States, the health cost of obesity is about $147 billion annually, according to a study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Medical expenses for obese employees are estimated to be 42 percent higher than for a person with a healthy weight. Enterprise 20/20 community members suggest that by 2020, the issue will be so prevalent that enterprises will have to nd a way to help their employees trim their weight or risk losing even more money to this epidemic. Wellness programswhich traditionally have been thought of as a nice-to-have perkwill most likely become part of the workday, as companies hire lifestyle coaches and nutritionists to mentor their employees. The company workout facilities no longer will be seen as a prot center but an essential department within the organization, with employees incentivized to take part in tness programs. Even the company cafeteria will undergo changes to encourage healthful eating habits, possibly offering for a very low cost or even free low-calorie, nutritious snacks and charging a premium for high-calorie items. In what ways do you think companies can help their employees adopt a healthier lifestyle?
Employees are looking to their employer for life training, Meister says. That starts with treating the whole body. There is a growing focus on understanding the mind-body relationship with respect to wellness, to tness, even to nancial training. Young people are entering the workforce sometimes $50,000 in debt. We dont ask them to pay for leadership training, so why should we ask them to pay for wellness training?
How much responsibility should a company take to help its workforce maintain a healthy lifestyle, and what are some of the things companies can do? What if employers required every employee to not only take a lunch break but also an exercise break? Well improve the health of the workforce and reduce the overall ofce stress!
drn3500, community member
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A New Breed of Employees

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VI.7 A New Breed of Employees
The employee of 2020 will be a different breed than the worker of todaymore mobile, more connected, more agile. This new breed of worker is expected to change the enterprise in ways we can only imagine today. To meet the technological needs and the working styles of the new generation of employees, IT must become more agile, with the ability to turn on and off services to meet the needs of the company and its workers. Human resources also must adapt and provide programs that address Millennials desire for constant feedback, continual learning and swift upward mobility. As the current workforces gets olderand obesity becomes an epidemiccompanies must make accommodations to address certain issues, such as quiet workrooms and personal lighting for older employees and wellness programs and nutrition counseling for all employees. These are just some of the conversation threads that are taking shape on the Enterprise 20/20 discussion hub today. What opportunities and challenges do you see for employees of the future? We encourage you to share your views now.
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VI.7 A New Breed of Employees
FF
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VI.8 Sources
1. Deloitte, Why Change Now? Preparing for the Workplace of Tomorrow, 2009 2. Ouye, Joe Aki, PhD., Five Trends That Are Dramatically Changing Work and the Workplace, Knoll Workplace Research, 2011 3. Gartner, Watchlist: Continuing Changes in the Nature of Work, 2010-2020, 4. Tom Austin, March 2010. Ferris, Tim No Schedules, No MeetingsEnter Best Buys ROWE Part 1, http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/blog/ 2008/05/21/no-schedules-no-meetings-enter-best-buys-rowe-part-1/ 5. PwC, Millennials at Work: Reshaping the Workplace, 2011 6. Meister, Jeanne, Multiple Generations @ Work, Future Workplace, 2012 7. PwC, Millennials at Work: Reshaping the Workplace, 2011 8. Annual Medical Spending Attributable to Obesity: Payer- and ServiceSpecic Estimates, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009.
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I.1 Community Discussion Highlights

I.1 Community Discussion Highlights

Go to the next Community Discussion page

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The middle class in developing countries will redene markets.

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Resource scarcity will make us more resourceful.

Most of us will live in cities.

Well lose our village connections, but gain cyber connections.

I.2 Community Discussion Highlights

Glass is half full

ICT: Glass half empty

I.2 Community Discussion Highlights

The effects of culture on enterprises

Go to the next Community Discussion page

Cognitive systems as human partners.

Insights to help humans.

By 2020, our scarcest resource will be our own attention spans.

Personalizing the power of the cloud.

By 2020, our mobile devices will be able to display 3D for us.

Security and privacy.

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I.3 Community Discussion Highlights

See change or sea change?

Which vertical will spawn greatest tech change?

I.3 Community Discussion Highlights

Well work in virtual ofces on virtual teams.

Well rely more on systems of engagement than systems of record.

Well use data in real-time and only preserve whats needed.

Well turn changing demographics into business opportunities.

Well nance, measure and value our businesses differently.

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Well manage talent in new ways.

Well approach the IT function differently.

I.4 Community Discussion Highlights

When play becomes work

How we work: Will gamication change behavior?

Or will gamication be childs play?

I.4 Community Discussion Highlights

What will matter in 2020?

I.5 Community Discussion Highlights

The Enterprise 2020 wish list

I.5 Community Discussion Highlights

II.1 Community Discussion Highlights

Redening the CIO

Changing skillsets, changing structures

The CIO must bridge legacy and ! as-a-service worlds. !

II.1 Community Discussion Highlights

Challenges and Opportunities! for the CIO of 2020

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