TECHNICAL REVIEW| APRIL 2005

Risk Matrix
Proper safety measures can make positive contributions toward increased production and
reduced operating expenses. Risk Assessment is an effective means of identifying process
safety risks and determining the most cost effective means to reduce risks. Some
organizations perform quantitative risk assessment and some uses qualitative risk
assessment tool such as risk ranking.

Following Process safety management services are offered to industries considering the
kind of risks that exists in the plant operations:

! Hazard and operability (Hazop Studies)
! Failure Tree Analysis (FTA)
! Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
! Primary Hazard Analysis (PHA) using Dow index
! Risk Assessment (With Risk Ranking technique)

Risk Ranking is a common methodology for making risk based decisions without
conducting quantitative risk analysis. Which ever risk ranking system is used, it has two
key advantages over using other PSM methodologies:

! It differentiates relative risks to facilitate decision-making.
! And improves the consistency and basis of decision.

Companies are recommended to adopt a standard, defensible ranking system to allow for
decision making, based on companys defined safety goals. The basic for risk ranking is
the Risk Matrix that has consequence / severity and frequency axis. The product of
consequence / severity and frequency provides a measure of risk. Risk Matrix is a
methodology that can help you identify, prioritize and manage key risks on your program
Risk Matrices can create liability issues and give a false sense of security, if not designed
properly. An effective risk ranking matrix should have the following features:

! Be simple to use and understand
! Not require extensive knowledge of quantitative risk analysis to use.
! Have clear guidance to applicability
! Have consistent likelihood ranges that cover the full spectrum of potential scenarios.
! Have detailed descriptions of the consequences of concern for each consequences
range.
! Have clearly defined tolerable and intolerable risk level.
! Show how a scenarios that are at an intolerable risk level can be mitigated to a
tolerance level on the matrix
! Provide clear guidance on what action is necessary to mitigate scenarios with
intolerable risk levels

The combination of a consequence / severity and likelihood range gives us an estimate of
risk or a risk ranking.
Although there are many risk matrices that have been developed and published, the
development and the application of risk matrices present their own challenges.
Construction of a Risk Matrix starts by first establishing how the matrix is intended to be
used .Some typical uses for risk ranking are Process Hazards analyses, facility siting
studies and safety audits. A key initial decision that has to be made is to define the risk
acceptability or tolerability criteria for the organization using the matrix. Another key
aspect of the risk matrix design is having the capability to evaluate the effectiveness of
risk mitigation measures. The next step is to define the consequence and the likelihood
ranges.

First determine what are consequences of interest, these can include
Vol
1
TECHNICAL REVIEW| APRIL 2005


1. Personnel safety
2. Public safety
3. Environmental impact
4. Property damage / business interruptions
5. Corporate image
6. Legal implications

The final step in developing the risk matrix is to translate the tolerability criteria onto
matrix. The following example of matrix published in CCPS (Centre for Chemical Plant
Safety) Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures, Second Edition is shown in Table 1

Table 1: Example of risk matrix
Consequence
Frequency
1 2 3 4

4

IV

II

I

I

3

IV

III

II

I

2

IV

IV

III

II

1

IV

IV

IV

III

Table 2 provides a description of the risk ranking categories used in table 1. For risk
ranked I or II there is a time specified for the implementation of mitigation measures. Also
in table 2, the risk rank III is defined as "Acceptable with controls. This is somewhat
confusing as all scenarios are acceptable with the proper controls. So how do we avoid
pitfalls and still have an effective risk ranking tool. One option is to avoid using
quantitative frequencies and probabilities for the likelihood ranges and use layers of
protection analysis (LOPA).

Table 2: Example of risk ranking categories
Risk
Rank
Category Description
I Unacceptable

Should be mitigated with Engineering and /or administrative
controls to risk rank III or less within a specified period such as
6 months.
II Undesirable

Should be mitigated with Engineering and /or administrative
controls to risk rank III or less within a specified period such as
12 months
III Acceptable
with controls

Should be verified that procedures or controls are in place.
IV

Acceptable


No mitigation required.
Source: CCPS Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures, Second Edition

Table 3: Likelihood ranges based on the levels of protection.
Likelihood
Ranges
Quantitative Frequency criteria
Typical Scenarios
Level 4 Initiating event or failure
Hose Leaks / Ruptures
Level 3 One level of protection
Piping leaks
Level 2 Two Levels of protection
Full bore failures of small lines or fittings
Level 1 Three levels of protection
Tank / Process vessel failures
The above likelihood ranges can be used in conjunction with the typical consequences
ranges shown in Table 4
TECHNICAL REVIEW| APRIL 2005



Table 4: Typical consequence ranges criteria
Consequence Range Quantitative safety consequence criteria
Onsite /Offsite: Potential for multiple life threatening injuries or fatalities
Environmental: Uncontained release with potential for major environmental impact.
4


Property: Plant damage value in excess of $100 million
Onsite / Offsite: Potential for single life threatening, injuries or fatalities
Environmental: Uncontained release with potential for moderate environmental impact
3
Property: Plant Damage value in the range of $10 - $100 Million
Onsite / Offsite: Potential for an injury requiring a physicians care
Environmental: Uncontained release for potential for minor environmental impact.
2
Property: Plant damage value in the range of $1 to $10 Million
Onsite: Potential restricted to injuries requiring no more than first aid.
Offsite: Odor or noise complaint.
Environmental: Contained release with local impact.
1.
Property: Plant damage value in the range of $0.1 to $1 Million

The resulting risk matrix is shown in figure 1.

Figure 1: Risk matrix

Source: Risk matrix developed using Hazop Pro

Author: Mrs. Deepti Aptikar
articles@bellsoftware.net






Tel: +91 20 25283802
Fax: +91 20 25283803
sales@bellsoftware.net