ME PROJECT

MARKET RESEARCH ON BIKES

WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON
BAJAJ PULSAR

SUBMITTED TO
Ms. SIMRAN SETHI

SUBMITTED BY
GROUP1
NIHAREIKA
ISHA
PADMA
GAURANG
SAURABH
SIRAJ
1
 INDEX

1. ACKNOWLEDGMENT……………………………………….………………3
2. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………….……………4
3. COMPANY PROFILE(BAJAJ AUTO LTD)…………………………..14
4. OBJECTIVE OF STUDY……………………………………………..……….18
5. IMPORTANCE OF STUDY………………………………………………….18
6. METHODOLOGY……………………………………………………………….19
7. MARKET SHARE AND GROWTH RATES………………………….20
8. MARKET STRUCTURE……………………………………………………….22
9. PRIMARY DATA ANALYSIS……………………………………………….23
10. SALES FORECASTING……………………………………………………27
11. CORRELATION………………………………………………………………34
12. HERFINDAHL INDEX…………………………………………………….35
13. CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………………36
14. REFERENCES……………………………………………………………….….37
15. APPENDIX………………………………………………………………………38

2
 Acknowledgement

We are extremely grateful to Ms. Simran Sethi for providing us

the honor of carrying out the project, which helped us to put our
learning’s into experience. Without her guidance we would not
have been able to proceed with our project in the right direction.

We would like to express our sincere regards to the staff of

LBSIM, New Delhi, whose help and guidance enables us to
know what exactly consumer’s preference towards television is
all about.

We would also like to thank our family friends and relatives

who have helped us and supported us in all possible ways.

A Project report needs co-operation, guidance and experience of

many more other than the persons whose name appears on the
cover, we would like to thank each and everyone who have
helped us in our endeavor.

3
 INTRODUCTION

The Indian automotive industry consists of five segments: commercial

vehicles; multi-utility vehicles & passenger cars; two-wheelers; three-
wheelers; and tractors. With 5,822,963 units sold in the domestic market
and 453,591 units exported during the first nine months of FY2005
(9MFY2005), the industry (excluding tractors) marked a growth of 17%
over the corresponding previous. The two-wheeler sales have witnessed
a spectacular growth trend since the mid nineties.
Two-wheelers: Market Size & Growth
In terms of volume, 4,613,436 units of two-wheelers were sold in the
country in 9MFY2005 with 256,765 units exported. The total two-
wheeler sales of the Indian industry accounted for around 77.5% of the
total vehicles sold in the period mentioned

Figure 1:Segmental Growth of the Indian Two Wheeler Indust

ry
(FY1995-2004)

4
After facing its worst recession during the early 1990s, the industry
bounced back with a 25% increase in volume sales in FY1995.
However, the momentum could not be sustained and sales growth
dipped to 20% in FY1996 and further down to 12% in FY1997. The
economic slowdown in FY1998 took a heavy toll of two-wheeler sales,
with the year-on-year sales (volume) growth rate declining to 3% that
year. However, sales picked up thereafter mainly on the strength of an
increase in the disposable income of middle-income salaried people
(following the implementation of the Fifth Pay Commission's
recommendations), higher access to relatively inexpensive financing,
and increasing availability of fuel efficient two-wheeler models.
Nevertheless, this phenomenon proved short-lived and the two-wheeler
sales declined marginally in FY2001. This was followed by a revival in
sales growth for the industry in FY2002. Although, the overall two-
wheeler sales increased in FY2002, the scooter and moped segments
faced de-growth. FY2003 also witnessed a healthy growth in overall
two-wheeler sales led by higher growth in motorcycles even as the sales
of scooters and mopeds continued to decline. Healthy growth in two-
wheeler sales during FY2004 was led by growth in motorcycles even as
the scooters segment posted healthy growth while the mopeds continued
to decline. Figure 1 presents the variations across various product sub-
segments of the two-wheeler industry between FY1995 and FY2004.

5
Demand Drivers

The demand for two-wheelers has been influenced by a number of

factors over the past five years. The key demand drivers for the growth
of the two-wheeler industry are as follows:

▪ Inadequate public transportation system, especially in the semi-urban

and rural areas;

▪ Increased availability of cheap consumer financing in the past 3-4

years;

▪ Increasing availability of fuel-efficient and low-maintenance models;

▪ Increasing urbanisation, which creates a need for personal

transportation;

▪ Changes in the demographic profile;

▪ Difference between two-wheeler and passenger car prices, which

makes two-wheelers the entrylevel vehicle;

▪ Steady increase in per capita income over the past five years; and

▪ Increasing number of models with different features to satisfy diverse

consumer needs.

6
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

Demand

Segmental Classification and Characteristics

The three main product segments in the two-wheeler category are

scooters, motorcycles and mopeds. However, in response to evolving
demographics and various other factors, other subsegments emerged,
viz. scooterettes, gearless scooters, and 4-stroke scooters. While the first
two emerged as a response to demographic changes, the introduction of
4-stroke scooters has followed the imposition of stringent pollution
control norms in the early 2000. Besides, these prominent sub-segments,
product groups within these sub-segments have gained importance in the
recent years. Examples include 125cc motorcycles, 100-125 cc gearless
scooters, etc. The characteristics of each of the three broad segments are
discussed in Table 1.

7
Table 1

Two-Wheelers: Comparative Characteristics

Scooter Motorcycle Moped

Price*(Rs.
as in
> 22,000 > 30,000 > 12,000
January
2005)

2-stroke, 4- Mainly 4-
Stroke 2-stroke
stroke stroke

Engine
Capacity 90-150 100, 125, > 125 50, 60
(cc)

Ignition Kick/Electronic Kick/Electronic Kick/Electronic

Engine
Power 6.5-9 7-8 and above 2-3
(bhp)

8
Weight
90-100 > 100 60-70
(kg)

Fuel
Efficiency
50-75 50-80+ 70-80
(kms per
litre)

Load
High Highest Low
Carrying

*Ex-showroom Mumbai
Compiled by INGRES

Segmental Market Share

The Indian two-wheeler industry has undergone a significant change
over the past 10 years with the preference changing from scooters and
mopeds to motorcycles. The scooters segment was the largest till
FY1998, accounting for around 42% of the two-wheeler sales
(motorcycles and mopeds accounted for 37% and 21 % of the market
respectively, that year). However, the motorcycles segment that had
witnessed high growth (since FY1994) became larger than the scooter
segment in terms of market share for the first time in FY1999. Between
FY1996 and 9MFY2005, the motorcycles segment more than doubled

9
its share of the two-wheeler industry to 79% even as the market shares
of scooters and mopeds stood lower at 16% and 5%, respectively.

Figure 2
Trends in Segmental Share in Industry Sales
(FY1996-9MFY2005)

While scooter sales declined sharply by 28% in FY2001, motorcycle

sales reported a healthy growth of 20%, indicating a clear shift in
consumer preference. This shift, which continues, has been prompted by
two major factors: change in the country's demographic profile, and
technological advancements.

Over the past 10-15 years the demographic profile of the typical two-
wheeler customer has changed. The customer is likely to be salaried and
in the first job. With a younger audience, the attributes that are sought of
a two-wheeler have also changed. Following the opening up of the

10
economy and the increasing exposure levels of this new target audience,
power and styling are now as important as comfort and utility.

The marketing pitch of scooters has typically emphasised reliability,

price, comfort and utility across various applications. Motorcycles, on
the other hand, have been traditionally positioned as vehicles of power
and style, which are rugged and more durable. These features have now
been complemented by the availability of new designs and technological
innovations. Moreover, higher mileage offered by the executive and
entry-level models has also attracted interest of two-wheeler customer.
Given this market positioning of scooters and motorcycles, it is not
surprising that the new set of customers has preferred motorcycles to
scooters. With better ground clearance, larger wheels and better
suspension offered by motorcycles, they are well positioned to capture
the rising demand in rural areas where these characteristics matter most.

Scooters are perceived to be family vehicles, which offer more

functional value such as broader seat, bigger storage space and easier
ride. However, with the second-hand car market developing, a
preference for used cars to new two-wheelers among vehicle buyers
cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, the past few years have witnessed a
shift in preference towards gearless scooters (that are popular among
women) within the scooters segment. Motorcycles, offer higher fuel

11
efficiency, greater acceleration and more environment-friendliness.
Given the declining difference in prices of scooters and motorcycles in
the past few years, the preference has shifted towards motorcycles.
Besides a change in demographic profile, technology and reduction in
the price difference between motorcycles and scooters, another factor
that has weighed in favour of motorcycles is the high re-sale value they
offer. Thus, the customer is willing to pay an up-front premium while
purchasing a motorcycle in exchange for lower maintenance and a
relatively higher resale value.

Supply
Manufacturers

As the following graph indicates, the Indian two-wheeler industry is

highly concentrated, with three players-Hero Honda Motors Ltd
(HHML), Bajaj Auto Ltd (Bajaj Auto) and TVS Motor Company Ltd
(TVS) - accounting for over 80% of the industry sales as in 9MFY2005.
The other key players in the two-wheeler industry are Kinetic Motor
Company Ltd (KMCL), Kinetic Engineering Ltd (KEL), LML Ltd
(LML), Yamaha Motors India Ltd (Yamaha), Majestic Auto Ltd
(Majestic Auto), Royal Enfield Ltd (REL) and Honda Motorcycle &
Scooter India (P) Ltd (HMSI).

12
 Figure 3
Shares of Two-Wheeler Manufacturers in Industry
Sales (FY2000-9MFY2005)

Although the three players have dominated the market for a relative long
period of time, their individual market shares have undergone a major
change. Bajaj Auto was the undisputed market leader till FY2000,
accounting for 32% of the two-wheeler industry volumes in the country
that year. Bajaj Auto dominance arose from its complete hold over the
scooter market. However, as the demand started shifting towards
motorcycles, the company witnessed a gradual erosion of its market
share. HHML, which had concentrated on the motorcycle segment, was
the main beneficiary, and almost doubled its market share from 20% in
FY2000 to 40% in 9MFY2005 to emerge as the market leader. TVS, on
the other hand, witnessed an overall decline in market share from 22% in
FY2000 to 18% in 9MFY2005. The share of TVS in industry sales

13
fluctuated on a year on year basis till FY2003 as it changed its product
mix but has declined since then.

Technology

Hitherto, technology transfer to the Indian two-wheeler industry took

place mainly through: licensing and technical collaboration (as in the
case of Bajaj Auto and LML); and joint ventures (HHML).

Table 2

Technological tie-ups of Select Players

Nature of Alliance Company Product

Bajaj Auto Technological tie-up Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd, Japan Motorcycles

Technological tie-up Tokya R&D Co Ltd, Japan Two-wheelers

Technological tie-up Kubota Corp, Japan Diesel Engines

HHML Joint Venture Honda Motor Co, Japan Motorcycles

KEL Technological tie-up Hyosung Motors & Machinery Inc Motorcycles

KEL Tie up for manufacturing Italjet, Italy Scooters

and distribution

LML Technological tie-up Daelim Motor Co Ltd Motorcycles

Hero Motors Technological tie-up Aprilia of Italy Scooters

14
 .BAJAJ Auto limited
Bajaj Auto is a major Indian automobile manufacturer. It is India's
largest and the world's 4th largest two- and three-wheeler maker. It is
based in Pune, Maharashtra, with plants in Akurdi and Chakan
(Pune),Waluj (near Aurangabad) and Pantnagar in Uttaranchal. Bajaj
Auto makes and exports motorscooters, motorcycles and the auto
rickshaw.

The Forbes Global 2000 list for the year 2005 ranked Bajaj Auto at
1946.

Over the last decade, the company has successfully changed its image
from a scooter manufacturer to a two wheeler manufacturer. Its product
range encompasses scooterettes, scooters and motorcycles. Its real
growth in numbers has come in the last four years after successful
introduction of a few models in the motorcycle segment.

The company is headed by Rahul Bajaj who is worth more than US$1.5
billion.

Bajaj Auto came into existence on November 29, 1945 as M/s Bachraj
Trading Corporation Private Limited. It started off by selling imported
two- and three-wheelers in India. In 1959, it obtained license from the
Government of India to manufacture two- and three-wheelers and it
went public in 1960. In 1970, it rolled out its 100,000th vehicle. In 1977,

15
it managed to produce and sell 100,000 vehicles in a single financial
year. In 1985, it started producing at Waluj in Aurangabad. In 1986, it
managed to produce and sell 500,000 vehicles in a single financial year.
In 1995, it rolled out its ten millionth vehicle and produced and sold 1
million vehicles in a year.

BAJAJ PULSAR

Bajaj Pulsar is a motorcycle brand owned by Bajaj Auto in India. The

two wheeler was developed by the product engineering division of Bajaj
Auto in association with motorcycle designer Glynn Kerr Tokyo R&D.
Currently there are four variants available -with engine capacities of
150cc, 180 and two variants with capacities of 220 cc. More than a
million units of Pulsar were sold by November 2005. A Pulsar 200
variant was discontinued in July 2009. With monthly sales of more than
48,000 units in June 2009, Pulsar is the leader in the 150 cc segment in
India with a market share of 43%.

Before the introduction of the Pulsar, the Indian motorcycle market trend
was towards fuel efficient, small capacity motorcycles (that formed the
80-125 cc class). Bigger motorcycles with higher capacity virtually did
not exist (except for Enfield Bullet). The launch and success of Hero
Honda CBZ in 1999 showed that there was demand for performance
bikes. Bajaj took the cue from there on and launched the Pulsar twins in
India on November 24, 2001. Since the introduction and success of Bajaj
Pulsar, the Indian youth began expecting high power and other features
from affordable motorcycles.

16
DTSi

DTSi stands for Digital Twin Spark Ignition, a Bajaj Auto trademark.
Bajaj Auto holds an Indian patent for the DTSi technology. The Alfa
Romeo Twin-Spark engines, the BMW F650 Funduro which was sold in
India from 1995 to 1997 also had a twin-spark plug technology, and the
Rotax motorcycle engines,more recently Honda's iDSI Vehicle engines
use a similar arrangement of two spark-plugs. However very few small
capacity engines did eventually implement such a scheme in their
production prototypes.

Key players in the Bike segment :

• BAJAJ AUTO
• HERO HONDA
• TVS
• YAMAHA
• ROYAL ENFIELD

17
 Objective of Study
The objective of this research is to determine the customer as well as
retailers preferences regarding different brands of motorcycles which
result in their market share. It involves the study of consumers’ buying
behaviour and attitudes towards a variety of attributes and factors, which
help them in decision-making.
The brand we chose to focus on was BAJAJ AUTO Ltd.’s PULSAR
brand of bikes. We studied the company profile, its market structure, the
brand awareness, growth rates and popularity among consumers so as to
forecast the future sales and understand the growth trends.
We designed a questionnaire to survey various dealers and consumers to
understand the demand and supply situation of the bike market.
Secondary data from the internet has also been used for effective
analysis.

Importance of Study

The importance of this study is to practically understand the relevance of

the concepts of managerial economics in the business organisations and
here in the realm of the motorcycles industry. The present market
scenario was analyzed and future demands forecasted using the simple
regression techniques. Also, a comprehensive study of the major factors
involved in this market was conducted so as to see how different and
similar a market structure is from the theories.

18
 Methodology

Primary data collection:

For primary data collection we designed a questionnaire to survey
various dealers and consumers. The objective of survey was to
understand the consumer preferences among various brands of
motorcycles available in the market and the factors affecting consumer
buying process.
The sample size for the survey was around 40-50.

Secondary data collection:

Internet was the major source for secondary data. Apart from
understanding the bike industry in general and Bajaj in specific, our
major task was to analyse the consumer demand for Bajaj’s PULSAR’s
brand and project the future sales for the company. We have used the
trend projection and exponential forecasting technique to predict the
sales.

19
 Market share and Growth rates
Two- wheeler sales in the country have sky rocketed in the recent years,
and the annual sales of motorcycles in India expected to cross the 10
million mark by 2010. The low penetration of two-wheelers in the
country 31 two-wheelers per 1000 citizens (2004) leaves immense scope
for the growth of the market. Overall the industry sales of two-wheelers
have grown by 15% from 6.57 million in 2004/2005 to 7.57 million in
2005/2006. The buoyant Indian economy with a growth rate of around
8% per annum is further expected to fuel the growth of two wheelers in
the country.
The share of motorcycles have increased over the years, while that of other two-
wheelers like geared scooters, scooterettes and mopeds have shown a negative
growth or remained stagnant. The two-wheelers have penetrated 7% of rural house
hold and 24% of urban markets, thus it leaves an immense scope for the market to
grow.
Bajaj Auto one of the leading producers of automobiles in the country has been
able to sell close to 2.3 million vehicles in 2005/2006, the sales of the company
grew by almost 31%. The company registered a 32% growth in the sales of
motorcycles much above the industry average of 19%. Bajaj Auto has emerged as
a market leader in the entry level or price segment motorcycle with the Bajaj CT
100 accounting for nearly 40% of the market share. It also commands a 62%
market share in the premium segment of motorcycles with products like the Bajaj
Pulsar DTSI. TVS Motors which has lots of firsts to its credit in the two-wheeler
sector in the country was able to sell 1.34 million units during the same period thus
registering an overall growth of 15% from the previous year. In the motorcycle
segment the company's growth in sales was in sync with the industry average.

f this figures have daunted you the best is yet to come, the country leader
in two-wheelers hero honda have crossed the three million mark during
the year 2005/2006 which is a good few lakhs more than its nearest
competitor Bajaj Auto. The company accounted for nearly 40% of then

20
two-wheeler market. In the motorcycle segment the company has been
able to attain a market share of about 50%. The segment in which hero
honda has emerged as a clear winner is the Deluxe segment, which is the
largest segment in the motorcycles category, with its flagship family of
motorcycles splendor selling over 1.2 million units which is just a shade
less than all the two wheelers sold by TVS during the same year.

The motorcycle category is expected to see a further growth and

according to industry experts it will drive all other category of two-
wheelers to the periphery.

The table below shows the over all trend of Industry Sales over a 5 year
period. The figures are provided by the Society of automobile
Manufactures Association (SIAM).
Two-wheeler domestic sales trend

Motorcycles

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

2887194 3647493 4170445 4964753 5815417

21
 MARKET STRUCTURE
Market Structure

This industry is a high volume, medium growth sector characterized by

excess/ idle capacities owing to in efficient operations. Imports have not
been influencing prospects, as high government regulations limit this .
Characteristics

• BIKES : primarily a commodity market - price sensitive

• Effective distribution chain - through a simple network of dealers
and franchises.
• Regulation - Emission norms as well as import regulations are in
existence.
• Market - Urban areas are the largest market for Pulsar, followed
by small towns and then rural centres.

The market of motorcycles shows a monopolistic structure due to the

following factors:

• Different and many players in the market

• Differentiated products.
• Prices charged are different.
• The competition is a non price competition i.e on the basis of
advertising and delivering differentiated products.

22
 PRIMARY DATA ANALYSIS
1. Age group classification of customers preferring Bajaj Pulsar

As is clear the maximum buyers are of the age group 19-23, hence it can
be interpreted as being popular in college going youth.
2. Bikes owned (categorisation)

Categorization of Bikes Owned No. of

bike customers
20
15
10
5 Categorization of Bikes
0 Owned No. of bike
customers
Apache
Ambition

Platina
Gladiator

Pulsar
Passion Plus

Splendor Plus
CT 100
Discover 125
Discover 135

23
3. What features help swing the customer?

Existing Customer Preferences

0%

13%

45%
24%

18%

Price Mileage Style Power Maintenance

4. What are the customers likely to purchase next? Car/bike?

Next Vehicle Purchase

42%
58%

Bike Car

24
5. Which bike are customers most likely to purchase next?

Next Bike Purchase Preference (%)

18% 31%

24%
14% 13%

Gladiator Apache Unicorn Pulsar Any Other

6.Factors influencing the buying behavior?

No. of Customers

Friends
Dealer
Family
Advertizement

25
7.AD recall

Ad Recall

2%
16%
6%
50%
26%

Bajaj Hero Honda Honda Tvs Yamaha

8. Cross elasticity of product from data

29.41%
9. Price elasticity of product
23.53

26
 Sales Forecasting

1. Trend projection method:

This classical method of business forecasting is essentially concerned

with the study of movements of variables through time. It is used under
the assumption that the factors responsible for past trends in the variable
to be projected will continue to play their part in the future in the same
manner and to the same extent in magnitude and direction.
There are three techniques of trend projection:
Gr
aph
ica
lme
tho
d
Le
asts
qua
reme
tho
d
Bo
x-J
enk
insme
tho
d

27
Sa
lesfo
reca
sto
fPuls
arf
ortheyear20
08usingLea
stSqua
re
me
thod(whi
chiss
ameassi
mplel
ine
arr
egr
ess
ionme
thod)
:

YEAR SALES(S)in T T2 ST
Crores
2000 865 1 1 86
5
2001 1011.
55 2 4 20
23.
1
2002 1374.
94 3 9 41
24.
82
2003 1512.
43 4 16 60
49.
72
2004 1647.
86 5 25 82
39.
3
2005 1799.
6 6 36 10
797
.6
TOTAL 8211.
38 21 91 32
099.
54

28
1.Trend Projection Method:

Thes
tra
igh
tli
net
ren
deq
uat
ionus
edf
orpr
oje
cti
ngf
utur
esa
lesi
s:
S=a+bT
Whe
re,S=a
nnua
lsa
les
T=t
imei
nye
ars
a
,ba
rec
ons
tan
ts

Theconst
ant
saa
ndba
ree
sti
mat
edb
ysol
vingt
hef
oll
owi
ngt
wo
equa
tio
ns:
29
 ∑S=na+b∑T
∑ST=a
∑T+b
∑T2

He
re,n=6
∑S=82
11.
38c
ror
es
∑ST=32
099
.54c
ror
es
∑T=2
1
∑T2
=91

Ons
olv
ingt
hea
bov
etwoe
qua
tio
nsweg
et,
a=6
96.
63a
ndb=1
91.
98

30
RMSE Calculation:
Ont
hebas
isoft
hec
alc
ula
tedv
alue
sofaa
ndb
,thepr
edi
cte
dsa
lesv
alue
f
ort
hey
ears200
6,
20
07a
nd20
08wi
llbe
:
Sp2
006=6
96.
63+(
191.
98*
7)=20
40.
49c
ror
e
Sp2
007=6
96.
63+(
191.
98*
8)=22
32.
47c
ror
e
Sp2
008=6
96.
63+(
191.
98*
9)=24
24.
45c
ror
e

And,t
hea
ctua
lsa
lesv
alue
sfo
rthea
bov
ethr
eey
ear
sar
e:
Sa
200
6=20
72.
00c
ror
e
Sa
200
7=24
87.
00c
ror
e
Sa
200
8=34
97.
00c
ror
e
2
RMSE={ (
3 49
7.0
0− 2
424.
45)+(
2487
.00− 22
3 47)2+(
2. 207
2.0
0−
21/
2
20
40.
49)}
3)1/2
(
=6
36.
69

Sa
lesf
or200
9an
d201
0ca
nal
sobef
ore
cas
ted:
S20
09=6
96.
63+(
191
.98*
10)=26
16.
43c
ror
e
S20
10=6
96.
63+(
191
.98*
11)=28
08.
41c
ror
e

31
3. Exponential smoothing:
I
tisapo pul
art ec
hniquefo rs
ho r
t-
runfor
ecas
ting.Itusesawe ight
ed
av
erageofpas tdataasthebasisforafor
ecas
t.Itgi
v eshigherwe i
ghtt
o
mostrece
ntda taandleastweighttoobse
rvat
ionsofd is
tantpast
.The
wei
g ht
sforpas tdat
aa rechose
ni nacco
rdancewiththeirde g
reeof
i
nfl
ue n
ceo nthef ut
ure.Theformulaforexponent
ialsmo othi
ngis-
St
+1=a
Yt+(
1-a
)St
Whe
re,St
+1=e
xpo
nent
ia
ll
ysmo
othe
dfo
rec
ast
Yt=a
ctu
als
ale
sofpr
evi
ousy
ear
St=f
ore
cas
teds
ale
sofl
asty
ear

Now,weappl
ythi
smetho
do nt
heavai
labl
esal
esdat
aofAWL
co
nsi
der
ingasi
xperi
odaver
ageast
heinit
ia
lfo
rec
astfo
rthey
ear200
6:

32
S20
06=(
865.
00+1
011
.55+1
374.
94+15
12.
43+1
647
.86
+17
99.
60)
/6
=13
68.
56
Wet
aket
hes
moo
thi
ngc
ons
tan
t,a=0
.4
The
ref
ore
,S20
07=(
0.4*
2072)+(
0.6
*13
68.
56)
=1
649.
93
S2
008=(
0.4*
248
7)+(
0.6*
150
9.25)
=19
84.
75
RMSE Calculation:
2 2
RMSE={(207 2.
00− 1
368.
56)+(
2487
.00− 16
49.
93)+(
349
7−
2 1/2
19
8 75) }
4.
1/
2
(
3)
=1
077
.40
6

Sa
lesf
ort
hey
ear20
09c
ana
lsobepr
edi
cte
das
:
S20
09=(
0.4*
349
7.00)+(
0.6*
198
4.7
5)=2
589
.65c
r

33
 Calculation of Correlation:

Co
rre
lat
ionCo
eff
ici
ent= 3
359.
71/
(6-
1)*
(36
4.8
48*
1.87
1)
=0.
984

Thisshowsthatther
ei sahi ghdegre
eo fc
orrel
ati
onbe t
we ent
het
ime
per
iodandsale
si .
emo rethetimeperi
od,morearet
hes a
les.Thi
sme
ans
th
atsale
sarehighlydependentontheti
meperio
dpo si
ti
vel
y.

34
 Calculation of Herfindahl Index
Ma
rke
tsha
reo
fva
rio
usbr
andsi
npr
emi
ums
egme
nti
.e1
50-
220c
.c.
Pul
sar:4
1%
He
roHo
nda
:27%
TVS:25%
Ro
yalEnf
iel
d:5%
Ya
maha
:2%
He
rfi
nda
hlI
nde
x:(
41^
2)+(
27^
2)+(
25^
2)+(
5^2)
+(2^
2)
=3
064
Si
ncet
hev a
lueo
fH(Herf
indahli
ndex
)ish
igh,wecansayt
hatt
he
co
ncen
tra
tio
nrat
ioi
sal
sohighinthes
egmentofpr
emiumbi
kes.

35
 CONCLUSION
Thebikewaslaunc
hedinthey ea
r20 00
,andfori
ttocapt
uret
helar
ges
t
sha
reo fmar
ketandbeate
x is
ti
nga ndfl
our
ishi
ngbran
dslikeHer
o
Hondai sag
reata
chie
veme nt.
Alsotherootme a
ns qua
ree rr
o rvalueinthel eastsquar
eme tho
d
isles
st ha
nt hati
nt heexpone
nt i
alfor
ecas
ti
ngme t
hod.Thus,t
hesale
s
pre
dicte
dbyle a
sts
quareme t
hodwi l
lbeabe t
terest
imateofthef
utur
e
sal
esthant
hatpred
ict
edbye xponenti
alfo
reca
stingme t
hod.

36
 REFERENCES
1.EBSCOHOST( dat
abase)
2.PROWESS( dat
abase)
3.INDIASTATS( dat
abase)
4.Pet
erson,LewisandJain:Manag
eria
lEc onomics
5.www. baj
aja
u t
o.co
m
6.htt
p:/
/aut
o.i
ndiamart
.c
om/ mot
orcy
cles/
bajaj
-pul
sar
7.htt
p:/
/www.fadaweb.c
om/ t
wo_wheele
r_indust
ry.
htm

37
 APPENDIX
Questionnaire for Bajaj Dealers
(
Thefi
ndi
ngsofthi
ssur
veywi
llb
eus
edo
nlyf
ora
cade
micp
urp
ose
sbyt
hes
tud
ent
sofLa
lBa
had
urSha
str
iIns
ti
tut
e
ofMa
nagement
,Delhi
)

Na
mea
ndAddr
esso
fth
ede
ale
r:

Zon
e:

Con
tac
tPe
rson
:

Q1.Wh
ata
ret
hemon
thl
ysa
lesofBa
jajPul
sar150c
cbi
kei
nyours
howr
oom?

0-
200 200-
400 400-
600 >600

Q2.Rankt
h esa
lesofthef
oll
owi
ngbi
kes(i
nth
epas
toneyear
)onas
cal
eof1
-7
(
wh e
re1indi
cat
eshighe
sts
ale
san
d7beingt
hel
owe
stsa
les
).

(
a)Ba
jajPul
sar150 (
b)Ba
jajPul
sar180

(
c)Ba
jajPul
sar220 (
d)Ba
jajDi
scov
er135

(
e)Ba
jajDi
scov
er1
25 (
f)Ba
jajXCD

(
g)Ba
jajPl
at
ina

Q3.How didthel
astpr
icehi
keofRs
.6000i
mpa
ctt
hes
howr
oom s
ale
sofBa
jaj
Pul
sar150?Sa
lesde
cre
asedby:

Le
sst
han10% 10%-
20% 20%-
30% Mor
e
t
han30%

38
Q4.Rankt
hec
olorpre
fer
enc
esforth
ebikessol
dinyours
howroomonasc
aleof1
t
o5( wher
e1indica
tesmostp
r e
fer
redcolorand5indi
cat
esthel
eas
tpref
err
ed
col
or)

(
a)Re
d (
b)Bl
ack

(
c)Bl
ue (
d)Gr
ey

(
e)Ot
her
s

Q5.Wh a
t,acc
ordi
ngtoy ou
,a r
et h
eke yfac
tor
sforc
onsi
der
ati
onbyac u
stomer
whil
epurch
asi
ngt hebi
kesfrom yourshowr
oom?(Rankonas ca
leof1to7 ,1
be
ingth
eh i
ghesta
nd7b e
ingthelowest
)

(
a)Pr
ice (
b)Mi
le
age

(
c)Te
chni
calSpe
cif
ica
ti
ons (
d)St
yle

(
e)Wa
rra
nty (
f)Af
ter
-sa
lesSe
rvi
ces

(g) An y other
, pl
eas
e s
pec
ify
__________
___
_________
___
________________

Q6.Wh atper
cen
toft
hec
ust
ome
rs(
appr
oxi
mat
ely
)optf
ort
hef
oll
owi
ng
combi
nat
ion
s?

(
a)Di
scBr
ake
,Ki
ckSt
art (
b)Di
scBr
ake
,Pu
shSt
art

(
c)Dr
um Br
ake
,Pu
shSt
art (
d)Dr
umBr
ake
,Ki
ckSt
art

Q7.Howma
nype
rce
ntc
ust
ome
rs(
appr
oxi
mat
ely)g
ett
hei
rve
hic
lesf
ina
nce
d?

0-
20% 2
0-4
0% 40-
60% >60%

39
Q8.Howma
ny(
in%)optf
ore
xch
ang
esc
heme
s?

0-
20% 2
0-4
0% 40-
60% >60%

Q9.How ma n
yc u
stomers
,inyouropi
nion
,woul
doptforhighere
ndbi
kesl
ike
Pul
sar150c
c,ju
stbeca
useofbe
tte
rfi
nanc
ingan
dothe
rfa
cil
it
ies?

0-
20% 2
0-4
0% 40-
60% >60%

Q10.Whic
ha g
eg r
oup(
iny
ear
s)dot
hema
jor
it
yofPul
sarbuy
ersbe
longt
o(Ti
ck
t
heappr
opri
at
eo n
e)?

(
a)1
8-2
3 (
b)24-
30 (
c)>30

Q11.Whi
choft
hef ol
lowingpa
rame
ter
sdoc
ust
ome
rsc
ompl
aina
bou
t,i
fan
y?
(
Tickt
hea
ppr
opr
iat
eone s
)

(
a)Mi
le
age (
b)Af
ters
ale
sse
rvi
ce

(
c)Ba
tte
ryl
if
e (
d)Wa
rra
nty

(e)Pi
ck-up (f
) Any ot her, please s pe
cif
y
____________
__________
___
_________________________________________
____

40
41
 Questionnaire for bike dealers other than Bajaj
(
Thefi
ndi
ngsofthi
ssur
veywi
llb
eus
edo
nlyf
ora
cade
micp
urp
ose
sbyt
hes
tud
ent
sofLa
lBa
had
urSha
str
iIns
ti
tut
e
ofMa
nagement
,Delhi
)

Na
meoft
hede
ale
r:

De
alsi
n:

Zon
e:

Con
tac
tPe
rson
:

Q1.Wh
ata
ret
hemon
thl
ysa
lesof150c
cbi
kesi
nyours
howr
oom?

0-
200 200-
400 400-
600 >600

Q2.How di
dthela
stpr
icehi
keofRs
.6000i
mpa
ctt
hes
howr
oom s
ale
sof15
0cc
bi
kes
?Salesde
cre
asedby:

Le
sst
han10% 10%-
20% 20%-
30% Mor
e
t
han30%

Q3.Wh at
,inyouropi
nion,a
rethekeyfa
ctor
sforconsi
dera
tionbythecu
stome
r
purch
a s
ing150ccbi
kesfrom y
ourshowr
oom?(Tickth
ea ppr
opria
teboxbas
edon
theorderofi
mport
ance
)

Ve
ryi
mp. I
mp.
Indi
ff
ere
nt Noti
mp.

(
a)Pr
ice

(
b)Mi
le
age

42
(
c)Te
chni
calSp
eci
fi
cat
ion
s

(
d)St
yle

(
e)Wa
rra
ntya
ndAf
ter
-sa
lesSe
rvi
ces

Q4.Wh atper
cen
toft
hec
ust
ome
rs(
appr
oxi
mat
ely
)optf
ort
hef
oll
owi
ng
combi
nat
ion
s?

(
a)Di
scBr
ake
,Ki
ckSt
art (
b)Di
scBr
ake
,Pu
shSt
art

(
c)Dr
um Br
ake
,Pu
shSt
art (
d)Dr
umBr
ake
,Ki
ckSt
art

Q5.Howma
nype
rce
ntc
ust
ome
rsg
ett
hei
rve
hic
lef
ina
nce
d?

0-
20% 2
0-4
0% 40-
60% >60%

Q6.Howma
ny(
in%)g
ene
ral
lyoptf
ore
xch
ang
esc
heme
sint
he150c
cse
gme
nt?

0-
20% 2
0-4
0% 40-
60% >60%

Q7.
How ma nycus
tomer
s,i
ny ouropi
nion,woul
doptforhigh
ere
ndbi
kesl
ike
Pul
sar150c
c,j
ustbe
cau
seofbe
tterf
ina
ncingan
dothe
rfa
c i
li
ti
es?

0-
20% 2
0-4
0% 40-
60% >60%

43
Q8.Whic
hagegroup(
inye
ars
)dot
hema
jor
it
yof150c
cbi
kebuy
ersbe
longt
o?
(
Tickt
heappr
opr
iat
eone
)

(
a)1
8-2
3 (
b)24-
30 (
c)>30

44
 Questionnaire for Existing Bike Customers
(
Thefi
ndi
ngsofthi
ssur
veywi
llb
eus
edo
nlyf
ora
cade
micp
urp
ose
sbyt
hes
tud
ent
sofLa
lBa
had
urSha
str
iIns
ti
tut
e
ofMa
nagement
,Delhi
)

Na
meoft
hec
ust
ome
r:

Ag
e:

Bi
keown
ed:

Q.
1 Rat
etheke
yconsi
der
ati
onswhi
lebuyi
ngth
ebikeinor
de rofpr
e f
ere
nce(ona
r
anki
ngs
cal
eof1to5,wit
h1b e
ingt
hehigh
estr
ankand5beingthelowest)

(
a)Pr
ice _
_ (
b)St
yle__

(
c)Mi
le
age _
_ (
d)Powe
r__

(
e)Ma
int
ena
nce
__

Q.
2Wh
ichwou
ldbey
ourn
extv
ehi
cl
epu
rch
ase(
ti
ckt
hea
ppr
opr
iat
eon
e)?

(
a)Bi
ke (
b)Ca
r

Q.
3Ifbi
ke,t
henwh
ichon
ewoul
dyoupu
rch
ase(
Tic
kth
eappr
opr
iat
eon
e)?

(
a)Gl
adi
at
or

(
b)Apa
che

(
c)Uni
cor
n

(
d)Pul
sar

45
(
e)Anyot
her
,pl
eas
esp
eci
fy________

Q.
4Ha
vey
oue
vers
wit
che
dov
erf
romon
ebi
ket
oan
oth
er?

Ye
s No

I
fye
s,f
rom_
________t
o___________

Q.
5whi choft
hef
oll
owinginfl
uence
syout
hemos
tre
gar
dingy
ourpu
rch
ase
de
cis
ion?Ra
nki
nor
derofpr
efe
rence
.

Fr
ien
ds

De
ale
r

Fa
mil
y

Adv
ert
is
eme
nt

Q.
6Whichofth
efol
lowin
gme di
aar
eyoumos
tli
kel
yton
oti
cea
nadv
ert
is
eme
nt?
(
Ranki
norde
rofpre
fer
ence)

Te
levi
si
on

Ra
dio

Hoa
rdi
ngs

I
nte
rne
t

Pr
intme
dia

If you are an owner of pulsar 150cc, then answer the following (7 to 9)

46
Q.
7Ar
eyous
ati
sf
iedwi
thy
ourpu
rch
ase
?

(
a)Ye
s__ (
b)No_
_

Q.
8Ra t
eyours
ati
sf
act
ionont
hef
oll
owi
ngpa
rame
ter
s(1-
5,1-
high
esta
nd5
l
owes
t)

(
a)St
yle

(
b)Af
ters
ale
sse
rvi
ce

(
c)Powe
r

(
d)Pe
rfor
man
ce

Q9.Woul
dyouh
avep
urc
has
edPul
sar
,ift
hes
amewa
spr
ice
dRs
6000hi
ghe
r?

(
a)Ye
s__ (
b)No_
_

Q10.Wit
hpe
trolp
ric
esr
isi
ng,woul
dyoul
iket
ogof
orPul
sara
syou
rne
xt
pur
cha
se?

(
a)Ye
s__ (
b)No_
_

Q.
10whi
choft
hef
oll
owi
ngbi
kesdoe
syour
eme
mbe
rswa
tchi
nga
nadv
ert
is
eme
nt
of
?

(
a)Ba
jaj

(
b)He
roHon
da
47
(
c)Ya
mah
a

(
d)Hon
da

(
e)TVS

48
 Questionnaire for Prospective Bike Customer
(
Thefi
ndi
ngsofthi
ssur
veywi
llb
eus
edo
nlyf
ora
cade
micp
urp
ose
sbyt
hes
tud
ent
sofLa
lBa
had
urSha
str
iIns
ti
tut
e
ofMa
nagement
,Delhi
)

Na
me

Ag
e

Bi
keOwn
eda
tpr
ese
nt,i
fan
y

Q.1Whi
chc ompany
’sbi
kea
rey
oul
ike
lyt
opu
rch
asei
nth
ene
arf
utu
re(
ti
ckt
he
appr
opr
iat
eo n
e)?

(
a)Ba
jaj

(
b)He
roHon
da

(
c)Hon
da

(
d)Ya
mah
a

(
e)TVS

Q.
2Wh ati
sth
ekeyconsi
der
ati
ongui
dingy
ourpur
cha
se?(
Ple
aser
anki
nor
derof
pr
efe
ren
ceonasc
aleof1to5)
)

(
a)Pr
ice _
__

(
b)St
yle _
__

(
c)Mi
le
age ___

(
d)Powe
r ___

49
(
e)Ma
int
ena
nce _
__

Q.
3Ifac
ari
sav
ail
abl
eatapr
iceofa
roun
d1l
akh
,th
enwh
atwoul
dyouoptf
or?

Ca
r___ Bi
ke___

Q.
4Woul
dyoupur
cha
sePul
sar
150c
c,i
fthes
amei
spr
ice
dat65000?

Ye
s___ No___

Q.
5Wi
llt
her
isi
ngoi
lpr
ice
simpa
ctyou
rpur
cha
sede
cis
ionoft
hepul
sar150c
c?

Ye
s___ No___

Q.6Wouldbe
tterf
ina
ncingopt
ion
saf
fec
tyourde
cis
ioni
nfa
vorofpu
rch
asi
ng
Pul
sar
150c
coveranyot
herbi
ke?

Ye
s___ No___

50