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March 14, 2014 Portfolio Adjustment on Global Macro Aggressive Portfolio + COVER SHORT FXY: Buying to cover 172 Shares of Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust at market open today (roughly $15,492). + BUY LONG: GDX: With available capital, at market open today I am entering into a long position in Market Vectors Gold Miners worth roughly $16,000. Rationale for closing FXY position: Yen continues to show characteristics of safe haven currency in times of risk aversion. Rationale for establishing GDX position: Continued deterioration of macro data + geopolitical risk increases probability of central bank action in the future. Break of $27.19 yesterday is technically bullish. Risks to GDX position: Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia ease; macro data improves in China.

| Rodrigo C. Serrano, CFA | SIPA | Columbia University Master of International Affairs 14 Candidate | New York City, NY | 01-305-510-0181 | rcs2164@columbia.edu !

Deteriorating data in China over the past week includes disappointing fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, new loans, and exports. Its becoming increasingly difficult to ignore weakening economic reports from the country. Meanwhile in Europe, ECB chief Mario Draghi has become concerned with the strength of the euro, due to it acting as a headwind for Europes nascent recovery and inciting deflationary forces. In the US, economic momentum in the fourth quarter was overstated and Q1 GDP estimates have been slashed. Japan has also produced economic data worse than expected. In addition, a potentially powerful bearish geopolitical catalyst lies in this weekends referendum in Crimea. A yea vote to secede from the Ukraine (plausible) could escalate tensions between Russia and the West. The possibility of sanctions on Russia and countersanctions would be bearish for economic growth. These developments bring into focus the possibility that central bankers may need to ease monetary policy (in the case of the Eurozone and Japan) or delay the tapering process, in the case of the U.S, a bullish prospect for gold. Markets may have already begun to price in this possibility. Gold has rallied 15% since the beginning of the year, while gold miners have rallied 33%. A bullish technical event occurred yesterday when GDX broke through resistance at $27.19. The Japanese yen, despite worsening debt dynamics, which I covered extensively in my macro outlook, continues to exhibit characteristics of the safe haven currency. A look at the USDJPY chart suggests that the currency may strengthen further should geopolitical tensions increase or economic data worsen. Over the longer term, I remain firm in my belief that the island nation is at an increasing risk of a crisis of confidence in its paying ability given its projected debt load of 242% of GDP. Recent news of Japans largest pension fund feeling uneasy towards its holdings of Japanese government debt1 tells me my thesis remains intact. A small portion of the portfolio remains short Japanese government bonds. Note that the portfolio in general remains tilted in a slightly bullish posture; however, should these trends continue, it will be adjusted accordingly. (Charts on next page) --

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Break through resistance is a bullish technical event.

Yen showing strength as risk aversion increases.

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