Evaluation of the potential hydropower production compared to the actual exploitation level in Northern Italy

Emanuele Bottazzi, Giuseppe Floreale, Andrea Maconi Altene Ingegneri Associati Via Privata Oslavia, 18 20134 Milano Italy

Introduction
In recent years collective action taken against the building of new hydroelectric plants has been growing in the North of Italy, especially in the Sondrio Province, bringing the Province Water Authorities to temporarly suspend new water concession releases. The objective of the study was to evaluate and compare the potential hydropower production and the exploitation level of four provinces in Northern Italy situated in the Alpine territory: Sondrio, Bergamo, Brescia and Trento (total area about 14000 km2) in order to verify if the perceived impact of the hydropower exploitation in certain areas is actually confirmed. This study evaluates the potential hydropower production of a wide area of the Italian Alps. The values obtained for the four provinces mentioned above are compared to the correspondant real hydropower productions gaining the actual exploitation levels. Starting from the DTM (Digital Terrain Model) a very detailed subcatchment net was created by means of GIS software. The total subcatchment number was about 13000, average area of 1.1 km2). A detailed drainage system net was also identified (average lenght of each elementar stream branch about 1.2 km). The average annual total water resource available was calculated, for each subcatchment, using the regionalization formulas proposed by the Regione Lombardia Water Protection Plan, based on the average rainfall and snow precipitation. For each branch the theoretical potential hydropower production was evaluated, relative detailed maps are presented and illlustrated. Then the potential hydropower specific per length unit and per area is also evaluated. A careful analysis of the current hydropower exploitation was carried out based on official data. The datas were collected per province or basin level and compared with the correspondent theoretical potential hydropower production, accounting of the water resource actually utilized for other uses (agricultural, industrial, domestic). A correlation between exploitation level and hydroelectric vocation of a territory is also presented. The study presents an effective methodology to calculate the potential hydropower production based on automatic GIS procedure. The study also shows how the general perception regarding the hydroelectric over-exploitation of a region is not necessarily confirmed by the data.

1. General characterization of the studied territory

The four provinces analyzed (Bergamo, Brescia, Sondrio, Trento) are located in the Alpine region. The whole territory of the Trento and Sondrio provinces was analized, while, for the Provinces of Bergamo and Brescia, the analysis was restricted to the mountain region. The main physical features of the territories analyzed are shown in the following table.

Area [km2] Province Bergamo Brescia Sondrio Trento 1942 2739 3199 6239
Tab. 1.

Mean elevation of basins [m] 1048 1182 1839 1400

Mean unitary discharge [l/s/km2] 39.7 25.2 35.3 29.5

Summary data of analyzed territories

The province of Sondrio consists of a main valley (Valtellina), with direction North - East / South - West, from which comes the Adda River. Then we find the Valchiavenna valley and the valley of Livigno (Torrent Spl). The mountains are high and reach 4049 m a.s.l. with the Bernina at the border with Switzerland. The province of Bergamo has instead several valleys with a North-South direction. The most important valleys are called Brembana and Seriana. This province has also other minor valleys: Cavallina Valley (Torrent Cherio), the Valley of Scalve (Torrent Dezzo). The highest mountains are situated in Valtellina and they reach 3050 m a.s.l. on Pizzo Coca. In the province of Brescia the most important rivers are Mincio, which comes from the province of Trento and forms the Garda Lake, the Chiese, which comes from Trentino and forms the Idro Lake and the Oglio (Valcamonica) at the border with Bergamo and Mella. The highest altitudes are reached in the Northern part on the Adamello Massif (3539 m a.s.l.). In the province of Trento the main river is the Adige which collects two important tributaries in the province: Noce and Avisio. Then we have the Sarca River, which ends in Garda Lake and the Chiese which flows into the Idro Lake. The highest peak is the Cevedale (3766 m a.s.l.)at the border with the province of Bolzano.

2. Subcatchment Analisys
2.1 Provinces in Lombardia The information for the provinces of Bergamo, Brescia and Sondrio is available at the Information System Basins and Rivers called SIBCA. This system has divided the mountain part of the region into elementary basins: each basin is associated with an element of the water course within itself. The connection between an element of the file in the basins and the two upstream basins is guaranteed by two fields in the database called LINK1 and LINK2. These fields include the identification codes of the two upper basins that give rise to the basin examined. (Fig. 1) 2.2 Province of Trento The division of the province in basins was not available in Trento: it was therefore necessary to create subcatchments of the area in order to have a similar result as it was obtained in Lombardia thanks to the SIBCA project. The first step was the acquisition of DTM (Digital Terrain Model) from the website of the Province of Trento. It has then Fig. 1: Connection between the fields called been corrected by an automated procedure (depit) that allows the LINK1 and LINK2. elimination of potential local errors of the DTM. Once the DTM of the whole province of Tento has been reconstructed clean , the direction of the outflows has been identified. The following operation is the creation of a raster that identifies the accumulation for each cell, that is the number of cells, whose waters flow out towards it.

It was possible to extract the net of streams defining the minimum number of cells to have a stream thanks to a "Map Algebra". The operation of Stream Link" has allowed to assign a code to each tract of stream, i.e. at each feature of stream between two intersections is assigned a number. The stream net has been vectorized and a database associated with the order of each feature and the identification code of each feature. Basins were identified from raster links streams

Fig. 2: Stream Vectorialization

Fig. 3: 3D reconstruction of channelization of Trento Province (basins in red, streams in blue).

and raster directions of flow, with the operation watershed,. The province of Trento was then divided into cells and each cell has, as a value, the identification number of the downstream basin, so it was possible to create two fields LINK1 and LINK2, which makes possible the connection of a basin with two upper basins.

3. Average precipitation
To calculate the average precipitation PS on each basin was adopted the scheme used in CPMA Schedule of Protection and Use of Water (PTUA) of the Lombardy Region:
A* PS = PCPMA + Pe A

where PCPMA [mm] is the average rainfall of the basin, Pe [mm] the equivalent precipitation in water of snow, (A*/A) the fraction of the river above a reference altitude, which varies depending on the territory. The snowy component Pe (Snow Water Equivalent) varies depending on the territory. In the regione of Lombardia to estimate the average rainfall PCPMA of the different basins the available mean annual rainfall map was used, while, for the province of Trento the mean annual rainfall map was built using data from 273 stations by the geospatial technique of Kriging. As the calculation of snow component, according with the PTUA procedure, takes into account the average altitude of each basin, by using the DTM, it was possible to estimate the fraction of each basin above the reference elevation A*, whereby it was possible to assess the additional snow component.

Fig. 4: Average annual total precipitation.

4. Hierarchyzation of precipitations and area of basins

The river branch hierarchyzation, obtained by defining the fields LINK1 LINK2 for each basin, allows to calculate the actual area drained by each stream feature and the average precipitation in the river basin in particular: the area drained by the starting point of the basin (Aupstream) and at the closing section (Adownstream) and the average precipitation over the starting point of the basin (Pupstream) and the closing section (Pdownstream). For basin i of order greater than 1 these quantities are calculated since the two above basins j and k as:

Ai ,upstream = A j ,downstream + Ak ,downstream Ai ,downstream = A j ,downstream + Ak ,downstream + Ai

Pi ,upstream =

Pj ,downstream A j ,downstream + Pk ,downstream Ak ,downstream A j ,downstream + Ak ,downstream Pi ,downstream = Pi ,upstream Ai ,upstream + Pi Ai Ai ,upstream + Ai =

Pj ,downstream A j ,downstream + Pk ,downstream Ak ,downstream Ai ,upstream Ai ,downstream

Pi ,upstream Ai ,upstream + Pi Ai

5. Calculation of average flow

The next step was calculating the mean annual flow for each section of the stream net. Again the technique of the regionalization of flow from flow gauge stations in the aforementioned PTUA Regione Lombardia was adopted. The calculation of average flow in each cross section is obtained by scaling the flow data avalaible on the basis of the total precipitation value:
q S = qM PS PM

Therefore it was possible to derive the unitary contributions of upstream and downstream for each basin and thus the inlet flow in the basin and the output from the basin.

6. Calculation of theoretical productivity

6.1 Hydroelectric productivity of basins The theoretical maximum energy produced at the basin scale is the sum of three components: one is the energy Fig. 5: Streams of Trento Province (size is proportional to the that can be produced from most upstream avarage annual discharge). Regional mean flow areas are subcatchements, i.e. of order 1; the second one is the shown in different colours. energy that can be produced within subcatchments of order greater than 1 using flows coming from upstream watersheds; the third one is the energy produced within subcatchments of order greater than 1 using lateral inflows (local own flows). In assessing the maximum producible power has not been incorporated this third component. The first theoretical contribution of productivity for each basin is:

Ei ,ord 1 =

24 365 g (H i ,mean H i ,min ) Qi ,downstream 1000

where Eord1 [kWh/year] is the extractable energy from basins of order 1, g [m/s2] the acceleration of gravity, that is 9.81 m/s2, [kg/m3] the density of water equal to 1000 kg/m3, Hmean [m] the average mean elevation of the basin of order 1, Hmin [m] the minimum elevation of the basin, equal to that one of the closure section, Qdownstream [m3/s] the flow at the end of basin of order 1. The factor 24 and 365 are for determining the number of hours in a year, while the division by 1000 to move from Watt hours to kilowatt hours.

The second contribution Eord>1 on the j element of order greater than 1 is:

E j ,ord >1 =

24 365 g (H j ,upstream H j ,min ) Q j ,upstream 1000

where Hupstream [m] is the maximum elevation of stream of order greater than 1. This elevation is equal to the minimum elevation of the two contributed basins. Qupstream [m3/s] is the flow in the beginning point of the basin. The third term of energy Esecflow for basins of order greater than 1 is:

E j ,sec flow =

24 365 g (H j ,mean H j ,min ) (Q j ,downstream Q j ,upstream ) 1000

In the analysis carried out this term has been neglected because, given the small size of the basins, the water is not channeled into real torrents and therefore its exploitation it is not feasible.

Fig. 6: Theoretical hydroelectric producibilit of basins of Trento province.

The theoretical maximum energy producible in the province Etot is given by the summation of different contributions of the n basins of order 1 and of the m basins of order greater then 1.

Etot = E j ,ord >1 + Ei ,ord 1

j =1 i =1

Province Bergamo Brescia Sondrio Trento

Energy order > 1 Eord>1 [GWh/year] 3849 5640 10133 13449

Tab. 2.

Energy order = 1 Eord1 [GWh/year] 1345 1547 3198 5252

Total extractable theoretical productivity Etot = Eord>1 + Eord1 [GWh/year] 5194 7186 13331 18701

Energy secondary flow Esecflow (not considered) [GWh/year] 933 1165 1982 2288

Hydroelectric theoretical productivity of the examined territories.

6.2 Calculation of specific productivity To understand better the the provincial productivity and relate well to the different features of the area two separate indicators have been developed , both representative of the "hydro vocation" of an area. The first indicator I1 analyzes productivity based on the total surface and it is given by:

I1 =

Etot S tot

This indicator aims to compare the reality analyzed taking into account the different surface and it is measured in Wh/year/m2. The second indicator I2 analyzes instead total productivity based on the total length of water courses Ltot of order greater than 1. Thus this second indicator indirectly provides an estimate of the investment to obtain the potentially extractable energy. The longer the trail is, higher is the cost of the possible power plant.. Thus equal productivity, it is more convenient to extract energy from regions characterized by a greater indicator l2.

I2 =
Province Bergamo Brescia Sondrio Trento
Tab. 3.

Eord >1 Ltot

I2 [kWh/year/m] 4183 4603 7303 6522

I1 [Wh/year/m2] 2675 2624 4167 2997

Productivity indicators of the different examined provinces.

As shown in the table above, Sondrio is, by far, the province most devoted to the production of hydroelectric power.

7. Analysis of hydroelectric derivations

In order to establish the exploitation level of the provinces examined, the hydroelectric derivations on their territory were first analyzed and nominal power values were extracted from the Regional Registries of Water Utilities. The data reported on the Registries do not account for system efficiency as the correspondent annual energy production values (reported in the following table). Nominal energy grant for small Hydropower derivations (SHP) [GWh/year] 464 565 361 378
Tab. 4.

Province

Bergamo Brescia Sondrio Trento

Nominal energy grant for big derivations Hydropower [GWh/year] 853 2784 5417 5979

Total nominal energy grant for Hydropower derivations [GWh/year] 1317 3349 5779 6358

Energy data of derivations from grant data

8. Estimated current exploitation

8.1 Current hydroelectric exploitation The exploitation for hydroelectric purposes of provincial territories analyzed was calculated using the ratio of the nominal grant energy Egrant, total and the maximum theoretical productivity Etot calculated previously:

Exploitationhydroelectric =

E grant ,tot Etot

Province Bergamo Brescia Sondrio Trento

Total theoretical extractable productivity Etot [GWh/year] 5194 7186 13331 18701
Tab. 5.

Nominal total energy grant Egrant,tot [GWh/year] 1317 3349 5779 6358

Hydroelectric exploitation [%] 25.3 46.6 43.3 34.0

Exploitation of water resources by hydroelectricity in the examined territories.

As shown in the above table, Brescia is the most exploited region for hydroelectric purposes while Bergamo the least compared to other provinces. 8.2 Exploitation for other uses To understand the actual use, it was estimated exploitation for other uses (irrigation, industry, aqueducts...) of the provinces analyzed. In order to establish the potential total energy lost due to exploitation for other uses Eotheruses the following formula was used:

E otheruses =
i =1

24 365 g (H i , der H min ) Qi ,annual , mean 1000

where subscript i denotes a single derivation for other uses, Hder is the elevation of the single derivation [m], Hmin [m] is the elevation of closure section of the analyzed basin on the border of the model developed, Qannual,mean is the mean flow [m3/s] based on the grant data and compared to the entire year. 8.3 Total exploitation Total exploitation is calculated as the sum of the nominal grant Egrant, tot and energy lost due to exploitation for other uses Eotheruses divided by the theoretical maximum productivity Etot:

Exploitationtotal =

E grant ,tot + Eotheruses Etot

Eotheruses [GWh/year] 324 236 263 700 Total exploitation [%] 31.6 49.9 45.3 37.7

Province Bergamo Brescia Sondrio Trento

Etot [GWh/year] 5194 7186 13331 18701

Egrant,tot [GWh/year] 1317 3349 5779 6358

Tab. 6.

Calculation of total exploitation of water resources.

As shown in the table above, the exploitation for other uses is significant only for the province of Bergamo while in the remaining cases the percentage has undergone a little variation. 9.

Conclusions

This study was generated in order to establish whether the territory of the province of Sondrio was actually over exploited for hydroelectric purposes compared to other similar areas. Notwithstanding any environmental evaluation, the aim of the study was to establish, in the most rigorous way, the quantity of potential hydroelectric energy in the provinces of Bergamo, Brescia, Sondrio and Trento and the quantity of hydroelectric energy associated to all present concessions in each province. The most relevant results of the study are:

1.

The hydroelectric exploitation of the province of Sondrio compared to its potential, is set at 43.3% and it is in average with the other provinces examined: Brescia seems to be the most exploited (46.6%), Trento with 34% which rises to 37.7% if all the other uses are taken into account while Sondrio with the other uses rises to 45.3%. Bergamo is the least exploited province (25.3% which rises to 31.6% with the other uses). 2. The province of Sondrio shows the most marked hydroelectric vocation compared to the other provinces and this is due to the higher altitude. This vocation is probably the reason behind the realization of important hydroelectric plants in the last century. 3. Instead the proximity of important industrial areas is probably the reason behind the high hydroelectric exploitation in the province of Brescia. The study also shows a GIS integrated tool for the analysis of the hydro potential sites at a detailed scale.

References
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The Authors
Giuseppe Floreale is an engineer with continuous professional activity since 1985 in hydraulic engineering, especially in the design and supervision of fluvial works and hydroelectric plants. Until 2007 he has held for fifteen years the position of Technical Director of the Professional Association Studio Paoletti Ingegneri Associati, coordinating the development of technical activities and taking on the role of head planner in numerous jobs in the field of hydraulic engineering. In January 2008 he founded Altene Ingegneri Associati. Emanuele Bottazzi graduated in civil hydraulic engineering from the University of Pisa, since 1999 works as technical-scientific consultant and professional engineer in hydraulic constructions, in particular in the design of hydroelectric power plants. He founded Altene Ingegneri Associati in 2008. Andrea Maconi graduated in environmental engineering from the Politecnico of Milano in 2006. He collaborates in the field of hydraulic constructions and GIS plan with Altene Ingegneri Associati.