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Novem
mber 6, 20113
INTE
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E
Cornyn at
a risk witth Republlicans nextt year
Raleiigh, N.C. PPP's
P
newesst Texas polll finds that Joohn Cornyn is in grave ddanger of
losing
g a primary next year if a serious cam
mpaign is ruun against hiim. Cornyn'ss approval
with Republican primary voteers is only 46%,
4
with 333% of voters disapprovinng of him.
And 49%
4
say theey would likee their candidate next yeear to be som
meone more cconservativee,
comp
pared to only
y 33% who say
s they supp
port Cornynn.
Ted Cruz's
C
star in
n Texas Repu
ublican polittics is makinng Cornyn's life a lot harrder. 62% off
GOP voters say they
t
have a higher
h
opinio
on of Cruz thhan they do of Cornyn, aand among
g themselves as 'very con
nservative' C
Cruz is seen m
more favorabbly by a 78/8
voterrs describing
marg
gin. If someo
one challengees Cornyn an
nd is able to effectively present them
mselves as
anoth
her Cruz they
y'll have a veery good chaance in a Reepublican priimary.
The good
g
news fo
or Cornyn iss that he startts out with l eads in headd to head maatch ups withh
somee of the namees that have been bandieed about the most as poteential primarry
challeengers. He leeads David Barton
B
51/18
8 (who annoounced he waasnt running this
morn
ning) and Lou
uie Gohmertt 40/31 in hy
ypothetical ccontests.
Despite Cornyn'ss weak overaall approval numbersn
300% think he'ss doing a goood job to
42% who disapprrove- he stilll has decent sized leads iin hypothetical head to hheads with
D
who
w are probably strongeer than the paarty's eventuual nominee will be
two Democrats
anyw
way. Cornyn leads Julian Castro 49/3
35 and Bill W
White 44/39. The two Deemocrats
would be more co
ompetitive iff Gohmert was
w the Repuublican standdard bearer- he leads
Castrro 44/35 and
d White just 40/39.
4
But basically
b
the conclusion tthere is that even if 1)
Demo
ocrats got th
heir best cand
didate possib
ble and 2) Cornyn got taaken out in thhe primary
by so
omeone voterrs saw as an
n extremist, it's still not a certainty D
Democrats woould be able
to maake the race competitive.
If th
heres any intrigue in thee Texas Senaate race next year it lookks like its gooing to comee
in thee primary, said
s Dean Debnam, Pressident of Pubblic Policy P
Polling. GO
OP voters aree
open to replacing
g John Corny
yn, its just a question off whether theere will be a candidate
strong enough to pull it off.
PPP surveyed
s
500 Texas voters and an overssample of 3888 Republican primary voters from
Novem
mber 1st to 4tth. The margin
n of error for the overall suurvey is +/- 44.4% and for tthe Republicaan
survey
y its +/-5.0%
%. PPPs surveeys are condu
ucted throughh automated teelephone interviews.
Phone
e: 888 621-69
988
Web:
publicpolicypo
olling.com
www.p
Q6
Q2
Favorable........................................................ 22%
Unfavorable .................................................... 16%
Q7
Q3
Q8
Q4
Q5
Q9
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Approve 46%
13%
24%
47%
49%
47%
Favorable 22%
13%
5%
15%
21%
28%
Disapprove 33%
79%
71%
35%
27%
33%
Unfavorable 16%
64%
8%
15%
18%
13%
8%
5%
18%
24%
20%
23%
87%
70%
61%
59%
Ideology
Ideology
25%
15%
21%
15%
19%
59%
10%
25%
25%
38%
33%
48%
49%
58%
48%
8%
45%
45%
46%
35%
41%
37%
30%
27%
33%
34%
45%
30%
30%
27%
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
23%
15%
24%
45%
57%
25%
48%
63%
38%
22%
51%
37%
13%
17%
21%
33%
56%
63%
39%
16%
54%
26%
21%
39%
67%
13%
18%
16%
22%
16%
Ideology
Gender
Base Wom an
Man
Cornyn Approval
38%
56%
47%
27%
8%
41%
13%
38%
59%
78%
21%
31%
14%
14%
14%
Approve 46%
43%
49%
Disapprove 33%
28%
39%
29%
12%
Crosstabs
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Base Wom an
Man
Barton/Cornyn
22%
22%
13%
23%
Unfavorable 16%
6%
25%
46%
57%
72%
52%
42%
20%
Favorable 22%
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Gohm ert/Cornyn
Base Wom an
Man
Perry/Cornyn
28%
33%
46%
46%
34%
46%
33%
36%
38%
21%
21%
18%
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an
Base Wom an
Man
Man
Higher Opinion of
Cornyn or Cruz
33%
33%
17%
28%
45%
52%
60%
64%
22%
8%
22%
15%
Age
Base
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Cornyn Approval
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Approve 46%
37%
46%
53%
Favorable 22%
20%
21%
24%
Disapprove 33%
43%
33%
27%
Unfavorable 16%
18%
19%
12%
20%
21%
19%
62%
60%
64%
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Barton/Cornyn
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Gohm ert/Cornyn
24%
16%
15%
41%
28%
25%
43%
50%
60%
29%
36%
53%
33%
34%
25%
31%
36%
21%
Age
Age
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Perry/Cornyn
Rick Perry 46%
55%
41%
44%
29%
33%
41%
16%
26%
16%
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
35%
28%
38%
47%
52%
47%
18%
20%
16%
Crosstabs
Age
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Higher Opinion of
Cornyn or Cruz
John Cornyn 23%
26%
18%
26%
62%
68%
56%
13%
13%
18%
Q7
Disapprove...................................................... 56%
Q2
Q8
Q3
Favorable........................................................ 13%
Q4
Q5
Q6
Q9
Crosstabs
2012 Vote
2012 Vote
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Obam a Approval
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Cornyn Approval
Approve 42%
90%
6%
36%
Approve 30%
10%
47%
19%
Disapprove 56%
8%
93%
50%
Disapprove 42%
58%
30%
44%
2%
1%
14%
32%
23%
37%
Not sure
2%
2012 Vote
2012 Vote
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Gohm ert Favorability
Castro Favorability
Favorable 13%
6%
20%
Unfavorable 18%
21%
18%
73%
63%
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Favorable 18%
38%
3%
7%
Unfavorable 29%
15%
42%
7%
93%
47%
55%
81%
11%
Crosstabs
2012 Vote
2012 Vote
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
White Favorability
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Cornyn/Castro
Favorable 24%
36%
14%
23%
10%
Unfavorable 21%
11%
53%
30%
6%
56%
71%
2012 Vote
Gohm ert/Castro
76%
5%
17%
14%
14%
52%
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Cornyn/White
5%
31%
2012 Vote
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
81%
76%
17%
7%
74%
21%
77%
5%
21%
77%
11%
32%
17%
19%
62%
15%
14%
46%
Crosstabs
Ideology
2012 Vote
Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Gohm ert/White
Louie Gohm ert 40%
6%
70%
15%
77%
10%
31%
17%
20%
54%
82%
84%
68%
15%
7%
Disapprove 56%
18%
16%
27%
83%
93%
6%
2%
Not sure
2%
Ideology
Ideology
Approve 30%
10%
10%
18%
46%
45%
Favorable 13%
10%
1%
6%
14%
26%
Disapprove 42%
69%
69%
48%
24%
32%
Unfavorable 18%
40%
23%
17%
18%
10%
21%
21%
33%
30%
24%
50%
77%
76%
68%
64%
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Favorable 18%
32%
34%
30%
9%
1%
Favorable 24%
49%
40%
29%
16%
10%
Unfavorable 29%
34%
20%
14%
34%
41%
Unfavorable 21%
21%
11%
14%
25%
28%
34%
47%
56%
57%
58%
30%
49%
58%
59%
62%
Ideology
Ideology
24%
16%
21%
73%
80%
19%
14%
14%
59%
63%
72%
57%
13%
4%
69%
71%
57%
14%
4%
13%
12%
22%
14%
17%
13%
15%
29%
28%
13%
83%
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
11%
10%
13%
69%
79%
16%
7%
10%
60%
70%
76%
68%
14%
6%
73%
80%
62%
14%
6%
19%
15%
19%
17%
14%
11%
12%
28%
26%
16%
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Obam a Approval
Base Wom an
Man
Cornyn Approval
Approve 42%
47%
38%
Approve 30%
26%
35%
Disapprove 56%
50%
61%
Disapprove 42%
39%
45%
3%
1%
35%
20%
Not sure
2%
79%
Crosstabs
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Base Wom an
Man
Castro Favorability
Favorable 13%
10%
16%
Favorable 18%
19%
17%
Unfavorable 18%
12%
25%
Unfavorable 29%
19%
38%
79%
59%
62%
45%
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
White Favorability
Base Wom an
Man
Cornyn/Castro
Favorable 24%
25%
22%
46%
52%
Unfavorable 21%
11%
30%
36%
33%
64%
47%
18%
15%
Crosstabs
Gender
Base Wom an
Gender
Man
Gohm ert/Castro
Base Wom an
Man
Cornyn/White
37%
50%
40%
48%
37%
33%
41%
38%
26%
17%
19%
14%
Party
Gender
Base Wom an
Man
Obam a Approval
Gohm ert/White
Louie Gohm ert 40%
32%
49%
42%
36%
26%
15%
Approve 42%
85%
5%
43%
Disapprove 56%
13%
94%
53%
2%
1%
4%
Not sure
2%
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Approve 30%
11%
49%
25%
Favorable 13%
10%
17%
10%
Disapprove 42%
55%
25%
54%
Unfavorable 18%
24%
15%
17%
34%
26%
21%
66%
68%
73%
Party
Party
Favorable 18%
37%
2%
18%
Favorable 24%
33%
12%
30%
Unfavorable 29%
20%
41%
21%
Unfavorable 21%
16%
30%
12%
44%
57%
61%
51%
58%
58%
Crosstabs
Party
Party
16%
80%
43%
12%
72%
40%
70%
5%
35%
73%
5%
33%
14%
15%
22%
16%
23%
27%
Party
Party
10%
80%
30%
9%
70%
33%
72%
7%
49%
74%
8%
42%
18%
13%
20%
17%
22%
24%
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Approve 42%
58%
27%
91%
56%
Approve 30%
20%
37%
9%
29%
Disapprove 56%
41%
71%
7%
44%
Disapprove 42%
47%
38%
52%
51%
1%
2%
2%
32%
25%
39%
20%
Not sure
2%
Race
Race
Favorable 13%
13%
13%
6%
20%
Favorable 18%
35%
14%
11%
21%
Unfavorable 18%
23%
18%
18%
8%
Unfavorable 29%
34%
29%
22%
19%
64%
68%
76%
72%
31%
57%
67%
59%
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Favorable 24%
24%
23%
27%
24%
40%
60%
17%
28%
Unfavorable 21%
25%
22%
6%
25%
47%
27%
54%
37%
50%
56%
67%
51%
13%
13%
29%
35%
Race
Race
29%
54%
14%
34%
39%
54%
3%
28%
52%
25%
60%
37%
37%
33%
73%
45%
18%
21%
26%
28%
24%
12%
24%
27%
Crosstabs
Race
Age
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Obam a Approval
32%
49%
12%
34%
49%
30%
70%
37%
19%
21%
18%
28%
Approve 42%
46%
45%
33%
Disapprove 56%
54%
52%
64%
3%
3%
Not sure
2%
Age
Base
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Cornyn Approval
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Approve 30%
25%
29%
39%
Favorable 13%
12%
11%
16%
Disapprove 42%
42%
45%
38%
Unfavorable 18%
18%
20%
17%
33%
25%
23%
70%
69%
67%
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Castro Favorability
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
White Favorability
Favorable 18%
19%
17%
17%
Favorable 24%
25%
25%
21%
Unfavorable 29%
33%
26%
27%
Unfavorable 21%
26%
19%
16%
47%
57%
56%
49%
56%
63%
Age
Base
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Cornyn/Castro
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Gohm ert/Castro
49%
44%
57%
47%
37%
49%
40%
32%
31%
39%
34%
33%
11%
24%
12%
14%
29%
18%
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Cornyn/White
Base
18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65
Gohm ert/White
42%
40%
52%
44%
36%
44%
42%
40%
35%
40%
40%
36%
16%
20%
13%
16%
25%
20%