***AFF***

**1AC**

1AC- LNG Imports Module

( ) Lifting oil restrictions checks a forthcoming wave of Cuban LNG imports. Benjamin-Alvarado 10
Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, PhD of Political Science, University of Nebraska, 2010, Cubas Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation, a Brookings Publication obtained as an ebook through MSU Electronic Resources page 111-12 The authors of chapter 2, Jorge R. Pin and Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, find that there are a number of key issues to consider regarding the productive capacity of Cubas oil and gas resources. First, Cuba has seen close to $2 billion of direct foreign investment since 1991 in its upstream oil and natural gas sector, with very good results. Crude oil liquids production reached a peak level of 65,531 barrels per day in 2003, up from 9,090 barrels per day in 1991. Since 2005 Cuba

has seen its crude oil production level off at around 52,000 barrels per day. Second, Cubas realized crude oil value could improve substantially once the country is able to monetize its heavy oil production by means of its own future heavy oil conversion refinery processing capacity, or to market its crude oil to U.S. Gulf Coast refining companies. Third, Cubas onshore and coastal heavy oil production seems to have reached a plateau at around 52,000 barrels per day, but once Cupet has access to the services, technology , equipment, and capital available through independent U.S. oil and oil services and equipment companies (when the trade embargo is lifted or modified), Cubas heavy oil production potential could grow to an amount in excess of 75,000 barrels a day. Deficiencies in Cubas oil-refining sector including outdated force Cuba to that relies heavily on clean-burning natural gas as its fuel of choice for power generation. Cubas future natural gas needs could be sourced as liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Trinidad and Tobago, as Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic currently do, or from future Venezuelan production. A regasification facility to receive
consider developing an energy policy Venezuela-sourced liquid natural gas is being planned for the southern coast port city of Cienfuegos by Venezuelas PDVSA and Cupet. Two onemillion-ton regasification trains are planned for 2012 at a cost of over $400 million. The natural gas is destined as fuel for that citys thermoelectric power plant, local industry, and future petrochemical plants.

technology

that is unable to process heavy crude coupled with an environmentally sensitive tourist industry will

Increasing LNG imports causes accidentsoutweighs everything Hunter and Amory Lovins 2001 (analysts, lectures and consultants on energy, resource and security policy, Hunter
Lovins has degrees in Law, Political Studies and Sociology and an honorary doctorate, and is a member of the California Bar. For six years she was assistant Director of the California Conservation project. Amory Lovins is a consultant experimental physicist, educated at Harvard and Oxford, who has published 23 books (many co-authored with Hunter) and several hundred papers. He has held various academic chairs, received six honorary doctorates, served on the US Department of Energy's senior advisory board, and consulted (often with Hunter) for scores of energy companies, manufacturing firms, governments and international organisations. The Lovineses have received numerous awards for their work. Brittle Power : Energy Strategy for National Security Rocky Mountain Institute -- http://www.rmi.org/images/other/S-BrPwr-Parts123.pdf -- also available @ http://www.transitcommerce.com/Harpswell/weeks.asp)

Disasters Waiting to Happen : Liquified Natural Gas

Natural gas can be sent by pipeline over long distances. For a price, it

can be piped from North Sea platforms to the British mainland, from Algeria to Italy, or from Siberia to Western Europe. But pipelines

are

not a feasible way to send gas across major oceansfor example, from the Mideast or Indonesia to the United States. A
high-technology way to transport natural gas overseas has, however, been developed in the past few decades, using the techniques of cryogenicsthe science of extremely low temperatures. In this method, a sort of giant refrigerator, costing more than a billion dollars, chills a vast amount of gas until it condenses into a colorless, odorless liquid at a temperature of two hundred sixty degrees Fahrenheit below zero. This liquefied natural gas (LNG) has a volume six hundred twenty times smaller than the original gas. The intensely cold LNG is then transported at approximately atmospheric pressure in special, heavily insulated cryogenic tankersthe costliest non-military seagoing vessels in the worldto a marine terminal, where it is stored in insulated tanks. When needed, it can then be piped to an adjacent gasification plantnearly as complex and costly as the liquefaction plantwhere it is boiled back into gas and distributed to customers by pipeline just like wellhead gas. Approximately sixty smaller plants in North America also liquefy and store domestic natural gas as a convenient way of increasing their storage capacity for winter peak demands which could otherwise exceed the capacity of trunk pipeline supplying the area. This type of local storage to augment peak supplies is called "peak-shaving." Such plants can be sited anywhere gas is available in bulk; they need have nothing to do with

marine LNG tankers. LNG is less than half as dense as water, so a cubic meter of LNG (the usual unit of measure) weighs just over half a ton.1 LNG

contains about thirty percent less energy per cubic meter than oil, but is potentially far more hazardous.2 Burning oil cannot spread very far on land or water,but a cubic meter of spilled LNG rapidly boils into about six hundred twenty cubic meters of pure natural gas, which in turn mixes with surrounding air. Mixtures of between about five and fourteen percent natural gas in air are flammable. Thus a single cubic meter of spilled LNG can make up to twelve thousand four hundred cubic meters of flammable gas-air mixture. A single modern LNG tanker typically holds one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters of LNG, equivalent to twenty-seven hundred million cubic feet of natural gas. That gas can form between about twenty and fifty billion cubic feet of flammable gas-air mixtureseveral hundred times the volume of the Great Pyramid of Cheops. About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto water, boil to gas in about
five minutes.3 (It does not matter how cold the water is; it will be at least two hundred twenty-eight Fahrenheit degrees hotter than the LNG, which it will therefore cause to boil violently.) The resulting gas, however, will be so cold that it will still be denser than air. It will therefore flow in a cloud or plume along the surface until it reaches an ignition source. Such a plume might extend at least three miles downwind from a large tanker spill within ten to twenty minutes.4 It might ultimately reach much fartherperhaps six to twelve miles.5 If not ignited, the gas is asphyxiating. If ignited, it will burn to completion with a turbulent diffusion flame reminiscent of the 1937 Hindenberg disaster but about a hundred times as big. Such a fireball would burn everything within it, and by its radiant heat would cause third-degree burns and start fires a mile or two away.6 An LNG fireball can blow through a city, creating a very large number of ignitions and explosions across a wide area. No

present or foreseeable equipment can put out a very large *LNG+... fire.7 The energy content of a single standard LNG tanker (one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters) is equivalent to seven-tenths of a megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.

ExtensionCuban Oil Cuts LNG Imports

Cuba oil displaces LNGtrades off Jorge Pinon 10/22/2010 (Senior Research Fellow, Florida International University, "Cuba's Energy
Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation" www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/10/22%20cuba%20energy/20101022_cuba_energy.pdf)
So for the future of Cuba, if Cuba is able to build those two new 300,000 barrels a day of heavy oil cracking capacity -- even

if Cuba doesnt find oil, itll be a very big potential deal. I want to briefly just talk about energy for a minute. I hope its not an
accident that an oil guy is sitting next to the environmental guy, but within the fossil fuels, there is no question that natural gas is the least contaminated -- even though we want to get above fossil fuels. I understand that. But within the fossil fuels, natural gas is the fuel of the future. And Cubas program is a two million ton a year train in Cienfuegos. Part of that is going to be to produce hydrogen for the hydrocrackers of the new refinery, some petrochemical projects and then natural gas for the Carlos Manuel de Cespedes plant in Cienfuegos. If we can convert Cubas thermoelectric capacity today to LNG, its going to be fantastic -- especially from air contamination and air pollution. Remember that the fuel that Cuba is burning today is three percent high sulfur fuel. So from an environmental point of view, turning Cubas electric sector to LNG

will be fantastic. Plenty of energy in Trinidad and Tobago. Plenty of energy is going to be coming out of Venezuela. Plus, by the way, if Cuba finds oil, that would allow Cuba then to export more oil because that oil that would have gone to the power sector is oil that now they can export because its going to be replaced by LNG. Last comment. You talk about black gold.

ExtensionEnding Embargo Cuts LNG Imports

Ending embargo opens Cuban market and develops its economyno longer as dependent on T&T imports George Alleyne 11/28/2012 (Writer for the Trinidad and Tobago Newsday, "Is Cuba embargo end
near?" www.newsday.co.tt/commentary/0,169863.html)
Trinidad and Tobago has in the past enjoyed a favourable balance of trade with Cuba, with at one stage its exports to Cuba being 30 times as great as its imports from the Spanish speaking country. Some

of the principal Trinidad and Tobago exports to Cuba have in the past embraced anhydrous ammonia, bars and rods of non-alloy steel, gas oil, other petroleum products, liquefied butane and liquefied propane. But even as this columnist has for several years advocated the lifting of the United
States embargo on Cuba and today urges President Obama to relegate the embargo to the dustbin of history I recognise that the anticipated increase in Cubas tourism industry, will result in a marked drop in overnight and short and medium term visitor arrivals re Trinidad and Tobago and other Caricom Member States. This will mean a reduction in revenue from tourism. Nonetheless, what is important is the broader picture.

Cuba after any lifting of the US embargo, if only because of the emphasis placed by its post Fulgencio Batista leaders, is almost certain to resist attempts to have Cuba as a source for primary products. Indeed, Cuba has a more bankable work force than any other other Caribbean island nation save for Trinidad and Tobago.
Because of its proximity to the United States, however, and the covert interest of many Americans and the open interest demonstrated by European investors, a lifting of the only by the ongoing world recession.

US embargo will see a close to rapid development of its economy, limited

ExtensionCuba Dependent on T&T

Cubas oil drilling failures make it dependent on Trinidad and Tobago David McFadden 3/31/2013 (Writer for the Associated Press, "Caribbean nations search for oil and
spill fears" bigstory.ap.org/article/caribbean-nations-search-oil-amid-spill-fears-0)
So far, the twin-island nation of Trinidad & Tobago is the only major hydrocarbons producer in the Caribbean , and its waters are crowded with offshore platforms. The country sits just about seven miles (11 kilometers) off the coast of Venezuela, which has the world's largest proven oil reserves. It's pushing hard into deep-water drilling and has signed production-sharing contracts with British oil company BP for new exploration blocks. A growing number of other Caribbean nations are also authorizing or at least aggressively pursuing offshore exploration. The Bahamas recently announced it would try offshore exploratory drilling and said it should have enough information by late 2014 to decide whether it can move forward with production. A voter referendum would first have to decide the matter. Bahamas Petroleum Company CEO Simon Potter said a rig will drill to subsea depths of roughly 22,000 feet (6,705 meters) in some 1,600 feet (488 meters) of water adjacent to Cuba's offshore territory. Barbados and Jamaica have also been seeking well exploration in their seas, while the Anglo-Dutch group Shell announced in December it was preparing to sink its third offshore well in nearby French Guiana, an overseas French department, with other companies also exploring in deep waters there. "What once was a trickle is fast becoming a stream in the Caribbean, with new announcements of expanding deep-water exploration lease offerings and drilling permits being issued," said Lee Hunt, a Houstonbased consultant who retired last year as the longtime president of the International Association of Drilling Contractors. The push for exploration has been fed partly by worries that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's nearly two-year-long cancer fight and March 5 death would affect a Venezuelan aid program called PetroCaribe that sells petroleum to 17 Caribbean countries on preferential terms. PetroCaribe provided $14 billion worth of Venezuelan oil to the region last year, with Cuba being the principal beneficiary. Chavez's successor Nicolas Maduro hasn't said he would stop the aid, but his challenger in April 14 elections, Gov. Henrique Capriles, has pledged to cut off subsidized oil to Cuba and reevaluate the PetroCaribe program if elected. Keeping

the oil flowing is crucial. Caribbean countries generate nearly all their power from imported oil although the region is blessed with solar, wind and other alternative
energy opportunities. Nonetheless, many people across the region fear their famed clear water, fringing reefs and white-sand beaches could end up a casualty to any future oil boom, threatening the tourism bonanza that many countries already depend on. Even with the possibility of a windfall still distant, regional officials have begun to discuss how they would cooperate in the event of a major accident, such as the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. "First, we have to prevent any kind of spill. And second, if something happens, we have to make sure everyone is working together," said Ernesto Soberon Guzman, the Cuban ambassador to the Bahamas, during regional talks about oil spill preparedness in the Bahamaian capital of Nassau this month. Ocean currents practically assure that a big spill in one Caribbean nation would significantly affect neighbors, possibly even the U.S. East Coast. Many Gulf communities are still recovering from the Deepwater Horizon accident, the country's largest offshore oil spill. "If oil rises to the surface and gets to the surface currents, it would start flowing towards our waters and our shores," said Capt. John Slaughter, chief of planning, readiness, and response for the U.S. Coast Guard's Miami-based 7th District. "We're going to take every action we can to prevent that from happening." Adding

to complications, the overall Caribbean region, with the exception of Trinidad & Tobago, is still an uncertain frontier for offshore oil and gas, said Jorge R. Pinon, a Latin America and Caribbean energy expert at the University of Texas in Austin. Cuba, for example, authorized exploratory drilling for ultra-deep deposits estimated to hold 5 billion to 9 billion barrels of oil, but its dreams were put on hold last year when three initial exploratory wells were unsuccessful and the massive platform that drilled them sailed away, with no scheduled return date.

ExtensionLatin American Dependent on T&T

T&Ts gas-based economy is perfectly positioned to supply to Latin America InvestTT 2013 (Investment Trinidad and Tobago, "Downstream Energy" www.investt.co.tt/targetedsectors/downstream-energy) Trinidad and Tobago boasts a well-established, energy-based economy. The nation is currently ranked as the
number one single site explorer of methanol and ammonia in the world and a major exporter of LNG to the United States. A major player in the international iron and steel market, as well as in the export of crude oil and refined petroleum products, the

country is now considered a gas economy, with gas-based production exceeding oil production in terms of contribution to GDP. The island is an optimal location to access Spanish and English speaking Latin American and Caribbean countries; there are 40 daily flights to countries in the region, guaranteed low cost of operations via low energy rates,
competitive office space and quality labour with job mobility across CARICOM.

**Impacts**

Impact- LNG Terror

LNG tankers are prime terror targets Eben Kaplan 2006 (Assistant Editor, the Council on Foreign Relations, Liquefied Natural Gas: A
Potential Terrorist Target? http://www.cfr.org/port-security/liquefied-natural-gas-potential-terroristtarget/p9810)
The Sandia National Laboratories report assesses four potential ways terrorists

may target an LNG tanker and the worst potential outcomes: Ramming: Terrorists may attempt to drive another vessel into an LNG tanker or to divert a tanker into a stationary object. Unless the tanker is struck at a very high speed or the object striking it is very sharp, it is unlikely that a breach of the hull will occur. However, if such a breach did occur, there is a chance LNG would spill out and cause a massive fire. Triggered Explosion: Explosives, such as mines, may be placed in the path of an LNG tanker or on the tanker itself. If powerful enough, such an explosion could cause the cargo to spill and ignite. External Attack: There are several ways terrorists may attempt to assault an LNG tanker. The 2000 U.S.S. Cole attack, in which terrorists detonated explosives after pulling alongside the warship in a small vessel, is often cited as an example of such an attack. Other possible methods of attack include firing missiles or rocket-propelled grenades at a tanker and or air strikes. Tankers are particularly vulnerable as they traverse inland waterways en route to their destinations. The impact of an assault would vary depending on the size and location of the attack, the worstcase scenario being a massive explosion. Hijacking: The most catastrophic scenario involving an LNG tanker involves terrorists taking control of an LNG tanker, sailing it toward a major population area and detonating the cargo.

ExtensionLNG Terror
Al-Qaeda wants to target LNG tankers now Eben Kaplan 2006 (Assistant Editor, the Council on Foreign Relations, Liquefied Natural Gas: A
Potential Terrorist Target? http://www.cfr.org/port-security/liquefied-natural-gas-potential-terroristtarget/p9810)
Yes, because

of LNG's explosive potential, experts say. Al-Qaeda, for example, has specifically cited LNG as a desirable target, says Rob Knake, senior associate at Good Harbor Consulting, LLC, a homeland-security private consulting firm. Pipelines are not as attractive because the flow of gas can quickly be cut off and an explosion easily contained. Terminals make better targets because an attack could result in a massive fire that could potentially kill scores of people. They
are also good targets because "if you take out those terminals, you could have a significant disruption [in the U.S. gas supply,]" Knake says. But

an attack on an LNG terminal might not be so damaging. Terminals are equipped with emergency fire detection mechanisms designed to minimize the impact of fires resulting from terrorist attacks or accidents. The most attractive targets are the boats: 1,000-foot tankers with double hulls and specially constructed storage tanks that keep the LNG cold. A report, put out by Good Harbor Consulting assessing the risk of a proposed LNG terminal in Providence, Rhode Island, concluded that a successful terrorist attack on a tanker could result in as many as 8,000 deaths and upwards of 20,000 injuries. It is important to keep in mind that this is the worst case scenario. A report on LNG safety and security by
the University of Texas' Center for Energy and Economics explains LNG "tanks require exceptionally large amounts of force to cause damage. Because the amount of energy required to breach containment is so large, in almost all cases the major hazard presented by terrorists is a fire, not an explosion."

Experts agreeLNG tankers are being explicitly targeted Cindy Hurst 2008 (Analyst with the US Armys Foreign Military Studies Office on various energy security
issues, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, The Terrorist Threat to Liquefied Natural Gas: Fact or Fiction? http://www.iags.org/hurstlng0208.pdf) There have reportedly been indications of terrorists planning to hit LNG tankers. In November 2002, the capture of Abd alRahim al-Nashiri, al-Qaedas operational commander in the Gulf region, brought to light the idea that terrorists were already planning to go after such targets. Nashiri, allegedly a specialist in maritime operations, had
already played a key role in the attack on the USS Cole and the Limburg. According to a Western counterterrorism official during an interrogation, Nashiri

indicated that alQaeda had information on the vulnerability of supertankers to suicide attacks and the economic impacts they would have. The official informed The Daily Star that al-Qaeda had a naval manual describing the best places on the vessels to hit, how to employ limpet mines, fire rockets or rocket-propelled grenades from high-speed craft, and turn LNG tankers into floating bombs. They (terrorists) are also shown how to use fast craft packed with explosives and the use of trawlers, or ships like that, that can be turned into bombs and detonated beside bigger ships or in ports, where petroleum or gas storage areas could go up as well. They (manuals) even talk of using underwater scooters for suicide
attacks.5

***NEG***

**Case Frontline**

A2- Natural Gas Internal Link

No impact or its inevitableT&T will just increase sales to China BOFIT 6/7/2013 (Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition, "China emerges as a major
trading partner for many Latin American countries" www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/seuranta/seurantaaineisto/pages/vw201323_6.aspx)
President Xi Jinping spent

this week on a tour of Latin America. He began with a visit to Trinidad and Tobago to talk about cooperation in the energy sector. Trinidad and Tobago has large natural gas deposits and would like to find new export markets for its liquefied natural gas (LNG) since the shale gas boom is reducing the US gas imports. China, which is interested in developing natural gas fields in the Caribbean region, promised
to build a childrens hospital in the capital city of Port of Spain. In Costa Rica, China agreed to provide almost two billion dollars in financing for modernisation of an oil refinery, highway improvements and a public transport project. Mr. Xi is currently in Mexico, after which he travels to the US.

A2- LNG Explosions

A. No impactLNG not explosive Lloyds List 2008 (One of the world's oldest continuously-running journals, having provided weekly
shipping news as early as 1734, LNG is not an explosive issue, Lexis)
INTEMPERATE language has been employed in attacking the liquefied natural gas industry ever since its inception almost 50 years ago. But in takes some beating. Referring to the potential of a piracy incident, a "specialist in maritime energy security" quoted by the newspaper warns that "an LNG tanker going up is like 50 Hiroshimas". It is this kind of ill-informed sensationalism that has fuelled an overly fearful attitude to the industry, particularly in the US, where the consequences of a terrorist attack on an LNG carrier or terminal have been the roll call of vilification, a recent article in the Los Angeles Times hotly debated. The Los Angeles Times report actually concerned the seizure of the Sirius Star, a sufficiently serious incident in its own right, one would think. But the article's specialist went on to speculate: "If it was an LNG tanker seized, we're looking at something potentially catastrophic." The seizure of any gas carrier or oil tanker is an event of some gravity. But as the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas points out,

LNG is not explosive or flammable in its liquid state. "Although a large amount of energy is stored in LNG, as in any hydrocarbon, it cannot be released rapidly enough to cause the over-pressures associated with an explosion," the Center says. Thus, the "atomic bomb" allusions refer to the total energy an LNG carrier contains, not the rate at which the energy would be released in an incident. The fact that the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas is an industry trade association should not detract from its arguments, which have been corroborated by numerous studies. The Los Angeles Times report serves only to feed the misconceptions that have surrounded the supposed dangers represented by LNG carriers. It cannot be stated often enough that LNG shipping has an impeccable safety record, with eight accidents in almost 50 years, none of which led to loss of life or a breach of a vessel's cargo containment system.

B. Ship design checksprevention measures.

Tony Muncer 2005 (Managing Director, UAE Lloyds Register EMEA, Balance debate key to eradicating sensationalist untruths, Lloyds List, Lexis) Many who denounce LNG base their calculations on the total volume of LNG in a ship. It is unrealistic to imagine, however, that the entire cargo of any ship can be released instantaneously. To mount such an attack would require the equivalent of a full-scale military operation like that carried out against the USS Cole. It is more likely that the LNG would be released over time, based on the size of the breach in the inner hull. Similarly, the 'against' lobbies often
quote the 9 m hole blown into the side of the Limburg to demonstrate that large holes can easily be created in the side of a ship. What they fail to understand is that this was the size of the hole in the outer hull;

it is the size of the hole in the inner hull which dictates

the outflow rate and, in the case of the Limburg, this was only 1 m - enough to lose containment but not enough to allow instant outpouring of the cargo. This slow release has a significant mitigating effect on the potential consequences of a spill. It is for this reason that the idea that LNG carriers are potential atom bombs is erroneous. There is a lot of energy in LNG, as in any hydrocarbon. However, the 'atomic bomb' statement refers to the total energy an LNG carrier contains, not the rate at which the energy would be released in an incident. For example, a lump
of coal contains lots of energy, but when it is burned, its energy does not all come out instantly like a bomb. Instead, the coal burns over a period of time releasing its energy as it goes. Similarly, LNG

carriers contain large quantities of energy, but the energy can only be released slowly in the event of a spill or a fire.

A2- LNG Accidents

( ) No impact to LNG accident A. Not probable Parfomak & Vann 8 (Paul, specialist in Energy and Infrastructure, and Adam, legislative attorney,
Congressional Research Service, CRS Report for Congress, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Import Terminals: Siting, Safety, and Regulation, 10-7, RL32205, http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL32205_20081007.pdf) The LNG tanker industry claims a record of relative safety over the last 45 years; since international LNG shipping began in 1959, tankers reportedly have carried over 45,000 LNG cargoes and traveled over 100 million miles without a serious accident at sea or in port.23 LNG tankers have experienced groundings and collisions during this period, but none has resulted in a major spill.24 The LNG marine safety record is partly due to the doublehulled design of LNG tankers. This design makes them more robust and less prone to accidental spills than old singlehulled oil and fuel tankers like the Exxon Valdez, which caused a major Alaskan oil spill after grounding in 1989.25 LNG tankers also carry radar, global positioning systems, automatic distress systems and beacons to signal if they are in trouble. Cargo safety systems include instruments that can shut operations if they deviate from normal as well as gas and fire detection systems.26

B. Thats empirically provennever been a spill Oil & Gas Investor 4

(July/August 2004, p.Proquest) LNG industry has overall racked up a close-to-excellent safety record over nearly half a century. Ships carrying LNG have made some 33,000 voyages over the years without a significant spill.
Like nuclear, the But a safety record is not the same thing as public perception. And environmentalists have not been slow to weigh in with querulous concerns about environmental safeguards.

2NC- No ImpactExaggeration
Risk is exaggeratedthere is minimal impact Havens 3
(Jeremy, chemical engineering professor at the U of Arkansas, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists July 1, p.Lexis) At that time the Coast Guard had been advised that a hazardous vapor cloud from this type of spill could extend as far as 75 miles. Updated estimates have reduced the risk area to under 10 miles, still indicating the need to use care in the future siting of onshore LNG import terminals. Even the updated models, however, are based on idealized mathematical models that may exaggerate risk.

No impactLNG explosion is extremely unlikely even if there is a spill San Diego Union-Tribune 4
(February 7, 2004, p.Lexis) The industry notes that liquefied natural gas is explosive only within a narrow range of concentrations in the air, 5 percent to 15 percent). Within that range, however, the fuel is combustible, so an uncontrolled release of LNG could
trigger an explosion or fire. If liquefied gas spills but doesn't immediately ignite, the evaporating gas will form a vapor cloud that could drift away from the spill site. If the cloud encounters an ignition source, it can catch fire or, less likely, explode.