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Indias energy demand is expected to double to 1,464 Mtoe by 2035 from 559 Mtoe in 2011. Moreover, the countrys share in global primary energy consumption would increase twofold by 2035
Oil consumption is estimated to reach 4.0 mbpd by FY16, expanding at a CAGR of 3.2 per cent during FY08FY16F
LNG imports accounted for about one-fourth of total gas demand. India's gas demand is estimated to more than double over the next five years
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA); Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: Mtoe Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent; mbpd Million Barrels Per Day
FY08
Oil demand: 3.1 mbpd; Gas demand: 31.5 bcm
Skilled workforce
About 139,068 people were employed in the petroleum industry at the end of FY12 The University of Petroleum and Energy Studies in Dehradun, Uttarakhand, is Asias first and only energy university
FY16F
Oil demand: 4.0 mbpd; Gas demand: 165.2 bcm
Advantage India
Supportive FDI guidelines
100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is allowed in upstream and private sector refining projects The FDI limit for public sector refining projects has been raised to 49 per cent
The engineering sector is delicensed; Government has various 100 per cent FDI is enacted allowed in the policies sector such as the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) and Coal Bed Methane (CBM) Due to policy support, there was policy to encourage investments cumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion into across the industrys value chain the sector over April 2000 February 2012, making up 8.6 per cent of total FDI into the country in that period
Policy support
Source: Business Monitor International (BMI); World Oil Outlook 2012; Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: mbpd Million Barrels Per Day; bcm Billion Cubic Meters
India is the worlds fourth-largest energy consumer The country has 5.6 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, with an average oil production of 0.8 mbpd (2012) India has 1,330 bcm of gas reserves and produced 47.6 bcm of gas in 2012 Upstream segment Exploration and production
The upstream segment is dominated by the state-owned ONGC It is the largest upstream company in the exploration and production (E&P) segment, accounting for approximately 62 per cent of the countrys total oil output
IOCL operates a 11,163 km network of crude, gas and product pipelines, with a capacity of 1.6 mbpd This is around 30 per cent of the nations total pipeline network
IOCL is the largest company, operating 10 out of 22 Indian refineries Reliance launched Indias first privately owned refinery in 1999 and has gained a considerable market share (28 per cent)
Source: BP Statistical Review, June 2012; Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: bcm Billion Cubic Meters; mbpd Million Barrels Per Day; ONGC Oil & Natural Gas Corporation of India; IOCL Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
Oil consumption is estimated to expand at a CAGR of 3.4 per cent during FY200816F to 4.0 mbpd by 2016
5.0
6,000
4.0 5,700
Owing to this strong expected growth in demand, Indias dependency on oil imports is expected to increase further
3.9
4.1
3.2
5,400
5,100
Oil Consumption (mbpd) - LHS Proven Oil Reserves (mn bbl) - RHS
Source: Ministry of Oil & Natural Gas; BMI forecasts; Aranca Research Notes: F Forecast; CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate; mbpd Million Barrels Per Day; mn bbl Million Barrels; * Provisional
In FY12, imports accounted for approximately 81 per cent of the countrys total oil demand Backed by new oil fields, domestic oil output is anticipated to grow to 1.0 mbpd by FY16
2.5
2.7
3.2
3.3
3.5
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.0
0.7 FY08
0.7 FY09
0.7 FY10
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Source: Ministry of Oil & Natural Gas; BMI forecasts; Aranca Research Notes: F Forecast; mbpd Million Barrels Per Day; * Provisional
With India developing gas-fired power stations, consumption is up more than 160 per cent since 1995 Demand is not likely to simmer down any time soon, given strong economic growth and rising urbanisation; during FY200817F, gas consumption is likely to expand at a CAGR of 21.0 per cent
1,330
1,330
1,330
1,330
1,090
1,115
1,149
1,278
109
47
51
31
FY08
FY09
32
FY10
FY11
46
FY13F
FY14F
137
FY15F
150
Gas Consumption
Source: Ministry of Oil & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: F Forecast; bcm Billion Cubic Meters; CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate; * Provisional
FY17F
FY12*
1,330
Domestic production accounts for more than three-quarters of total gas consumption in the country Imports constitute the rest; in 2012, the share of imports was 22.0 per cent
56
India increasingly relies on imported LNG; the country was the sixth-largest LNG importer in 2011 and accounted for 5.3 per cent of global imports Indias LNG imports are forecast to increase at a CAGR of 33 per cent during 201217
11
33 FY09 47 FY10 44 FY14F 47 FY15F 51
FY11
FY16F
Gas Production
Gas Imports
Source: Ministry of Oil & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: F Forecast; bcm Billion Cubic Meters; * Provisional
FY17F
Total crude oil production was 38.0 mmt during FY12 ONGC accounted for 62 per cent of total crude oil production in India
4.6 3.2 4.8 3.1
5.1 3.1
4.7 3.5
5.3 3.6
9.7 3.6
10.5
3.8
24.4
26.1
25.9
25.4
24.9
24.4
23.7
FY06
FY07
FY08 ONGC
FY09 OIL
FY10 Private/JV
FY11
FY12*
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: mmt Million Metric Tonne; * Provisional; JV Joint Venture
Total gas production was 47.6 bcm during FY12 The contribution from Private/JV has drastically increased over the last couple of years, following the development of the Reliance - Krishna Godavari (KG) basin
22.0 7.4 2.3 22.6 7.0 2.3 22.4 7.7 2.3 22.3 8.1 2.3 22.5 2.4 23.1
26.8
21.6 2.6
2.4 23.1
23.3
FY06
FY07
FY08
ONGC
FY09
OIL
FY10
Private/JV
FY11
FY12*
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: mmt Million Metric Tonne; * Provisional; JV Joint Venture
During FY12, 1,631,000 meters of wells were explored and developed in India During the same period, 756 wells were drilled in the country Most upstream drilling and exploration work is undertaken by state-owned oil companies ONGC is the leader in the upstream segment and accounts for 62 per cent of total crude oil output in India
129
295
62 740 87 198 Wells Onshore Metreage Offshore Wells Onshore Offshore Metreage 467 409
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: * Provisional
India has a network of 9,537 km of crude pipeline having a capacity of 138.3 mmtpa In terms of length, IOCL accounts for 45.9 per cent (4,376 km) of Indias crude pipeline network; moreover, the company has the countrys longest pipelines, namely the Salaya-Mathura-Panipat Pipeline (1870 km) and the Haldia-Barauni / Paradip-Barauni Pipeline (1302 km) In terms of capacity, ONGC leads the pack with a share of 47.4 per cent (65.5 mmtpa), followed by IOCL at 29.2 per cent (40.4 mmtpa)
6.1% OIL
11.9% 45.9%
ONGC
ONGC
IOCL
47.4%
IOCL
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: km Kilometre; mmtpa Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum
Of the 11,218 km of refined products pipeline network (capacity of 76.3 mmtpa) in India, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) accounts for 55 per cent (6,127 km) Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) has largest share (88 per cent or 2,038 km) of the countrys LPG pipeline network (2,312 km)
6%
12%
IOC 15%
BPCL GAIL 55% 19% OIL PCCK PMHB 88%
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: km Kilometre; mmtpa Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, LPG - Liquefied Petroleum Gas, IOC - Indian Oil Corporation, HPCL - Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, BPCL - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, OIL - Oil India Limited, PMHB - Mangalore Hasan Bangalore, PCCK - Cochin-Coimbatore-Karur
State-controlled entities dominate the downstream segment as well India has 19 refineries in the public sector and 3 in the private sector In FY12, public sector refineries accounted for 57 per cent of total refinery crude throughput
90.7
90.5
93.1
96.9
108.2
112.5
112.2
112.1
115.3
120.9
FY05
FY06
FY12*
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: * Provisional; mmt Million Metric Tonne
Total crude throughput rose from 130.1 mmt in FY06 to 211.4 mmt in FY12* In FY12, the sectors total installed capacity was 213.1 mmt, up 13.7 per cent from the previous fiscal year In FY12, Reliance emerged as the largest domestic refiner with a capacity of 60 mmt (Jamnagar Refinery)
78 71
135
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: mmt Million Metric Tonne; * Provisional, HPCL - Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, BPCL - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, OIL - Oil India Limited, ONGC - Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, IOCL - Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, CPCL - Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited, NRL - Numaligarh Refinery Limited, MRPL - Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited, RPL - Renegade Petroleum Ltd, EOL - Essar Oil Ltd
During FY12, 198.8 mmt of petroleum products (including 2.2 mmt of LPG from natural gas) were produced Petroleum products derived from crude oil include light distillates such as LPG, naphtha; middle distillates such as kerosene; and heavy ends such as furnace and lube oils, bitumen, petroleum coke, paraffin wax The production of petroleum products is expected to reach 1199.7 mmt during the 12th Plan period (201217)
35 23 64 32 FY06 26 71 38 FY07
28
77
40 FY08
40 FY09
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09 LPG
FY10
FY11
FY12*
Light Distillates
Middle Distillates
Heavy Ends
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: mmt Million Metric Tonne; * Provisional
In FY12*, total sales of petroleum products by companies was 148.0 mmt, up 4.9 per cent from the previous fiscal year The total number of retail outlets of public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) increased to 42,138 in April 2012 from 38,964 in April 2011 IOC owns the maximum number of retail outlets in the country (48.8 per cent of total), followed by HPCL (26.7 per cent) and BPCL (24.5 per cent); the remaining outlets are owned by private firms As of April 1, 2012, there were 11,489 LPG distributors in India
Pipeline
Product Pipeline LPG Pipeline
Crude Pipeline
Total
218.5
22,057
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: mmt Million Metric Tonne; mmtpa Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum; * Provisional
In 2011, coal accounted for 41 per cent of total primary energy demand Energy demand in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to reach 5,627 Mtoe by 2020 and 6,861 Mtoe by 2035 Indias energy demand is expected to double by 2035
23%
5% 8%
Coal Petroleum
41%
Solid biomass & waste Natural gas Nuclear & other renewables
23%
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA); Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC); Aranca Research Notes: Mtoe Million Tonne of Oil Equivalent
Over the next few years, the dependence on gas, hydro power and nuclear power is expected to increase relative to oil and coal The government aims to quadruple Indias nuclear power generation capacity to 20 GW by 2020; currently, seven nuclear power reactors of 4,890 MWe capacity are under construction
Coal Petroleum Solid biomass & waste Natural gas Nuclear & other renewables
24%
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA); 12th Five-Year Plan; Aranca Research
Company
Indian Oil Corporation Limited Reliance Industries Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited ONGC GAIL India Limited Oil India Limited
Company
Cairn Energy India Pvt Ltd
Shell BG Group BP
Government approved the CBM policy in 1997 to boost the development of clean and renewable energy resources CBM is an eco-friendly natural gas (methane), which is absorbed in coal and lignite seams CBM policy was designed to be liberal and investor friendly; the first commercial production of CBM was initiated in July 2007 at about 72,000 cubic metres per day
The technology was first widely used in the US in the 1800s, and in India (Kolkata and Mumbai) in the early 1900s UCG is currently the only feasible technology available to harness energy from deep unmineable coal seams economically in an eco-friendly manner Reduces capital outlay, operating costs and output gas expenses by 2550 per cent, vis-vis surface gasification
The government initiated the National Gas Hydrate Programme (NGHP), a consortium of national E&P companies and research institutions, to map gas hydrates for use as an alternate source of energy Bio-fuels (bio-ethanol and bio-diesel) are alternate sources of energy from domestic renewable resources; these have lower emissions compared to petroleum or diesel
State
Gujarat Maharashtra Haryana Karnataka Tamil Nadu Kerala Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Assam Bihar Punjab Madhya Pradesh Total
10.6
9.5 8.8 8.2 8.1 6.7 5.7 211.4
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: mt Million Tonne
Policy support
Increasing investments
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research Notes: * Provisional; # April 2000February 2013
India is the worlds fourth-largest energy consumer Oil consumption is expected to rise 42.5 per cent during 201020 The country accounted for 10.3 per cent of total demand for gas in Asia-Pacific in 2011
Several industries are increasing the usage of natural gas in operations; this has boosted natural gas demand in India Some of the main industries that use natural gas pulp and paper, metals, chemicals, glass, plastic and food processing
The nation has large coal, crude oil and natural gas reserves Oil reserves amounted to 5.6 billion barrels in FY12 Natural gas reserves stood at 1.3 tcm in FY12
Favourable policies
100 per cent FDI allowed in E&P projects/companies; 49 per cent allowed in refining Policies to promote investments in the industry such as New Exploraton Licensing Policy (NELP) and Coal Bed Methane (CBM)
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2012; BMI; Aranca Research, Note: TCM - Trillion Cubic Meters, E&P - Exploration and Production
Huge investments
Investments worth USD75 billion is expected across the oil & gas value chain under the 12th Plan (201217) Since April 2000, FDI worth USD5.4 billion has been invested in Indias petroleum and natural gas sectors
Skilled labour
The nation offers abundant skilled labour at much competitive wages compared to other countries The University of Petroleum and Energy Studies in Dehradun, Uttarakhand, is Asias first and only energy university
Several domestic companies (such as ONGC, Reliance and Gujarat State Petroleum) have reportedly found natural gas in deep waters This offers significant expansion opportunity for the next decade
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; BMI; Aranca Research
Integrated Energy Policy (IEP), 2006 Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) Act, 2006
Outlines goals for dealing with challenges faced by Indias energy sector
To regulate refining, processing, storage, transportation, distribution, marketing and sale of petroleum, petroleum products and natural gas
To provide a roadmap to comply with various vehicular emission norms and corresponding fuel quality upgrading requirements over a period of time
To promote bio-fuel usage, the GoI has provided a 16 per cent concession on the excise duty on bio-ethanol and exempted bio-diesel from excise duty
To compensate public sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) on the freight incurred to distribute subsidised products in far-flung areas
NELP, 1999
To provide a contract framework for E&P of hydrocarbons; licenses for exploration are awarded through a competitive bidding system; nine rounds of bidding completed till 2011
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Aranca Research, Note: NELP - New Exploration Licensing Policy
FDI Policies
The E&P segments FDI limit is 100 per cent, and the refining segments limit is 49 per cent
To encourage exploration and production of CBM gas as a new eco-friendly source of energy
Provisions for regulations governing pollution, safety, and other operating standards
Oil Industry (Development) Act, 1974 Petroleum and Minerals Pipelines Act, 1962
An act establishing a board to develop the oil industry and levy excise duty on crude and natural gas
Acquisition of users rights by the government of India on land demarcated for laying pipelines to transport petroleum and other minerals from one area to another
Regulates the grant of petroleum and natural gas exploration licenses and mining leases, which belong to the government
Cumulative FDI inflows during April 2000February 2013 in Indias petroleum and natural gas sector stood at USD5.4 billion (2.8 per cent of total FDIs) Across sectors, cumulative FDI inflows during April 2000February 2013 was USD191.9 billion, with the services sector accounting for the largest share (19.4 per cent), followed by construction development (11.5 per cent) and telecommunication (6.6 per cent)
1,427.0
12.5 556.0 412.0 14.0 FY06 89.0 FY07 FY08 FY09 5.5
266.0
FY10
FY11
FY12*
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12*
FY13*
Source: Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion; Aranca Research Notes: * Provisional
Date Announced
Nov 2012
Acquirer Name
ONGC Videsh
Target Name
ConocoPhillips (Kashagan Field) Oil and Natural Gas Corps exploration block KG-DWN-2004/6 Hess Corp (Azrei oilfield) Nagarjuna Oil Co Ltd Reliance Industries Ltd EP413 Cairn India Ltd Cairn India Ltd Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Infotel Broadband Svcs Ltd Interlink Petroleum Ltd
Nov 2012
Sep 2012 Apr 2012 Feb 2011 Aug 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2010 Aug 2010 Jun 2010 Apr 2010
Inpex Corp
ONGC Videsh Trafigura Pte Ltd BP PLC BPRL Sesa Goa Ltd Vedanta Resources PLC Reliance Industries Ltd Reliance Industries Ltd Sim Siang Choon Hardware
Not disclosed
1000.0 130.0 9,000.0 13.4 1,180.8 6,568.5 391.6 1,026.7 17.8
Source: Thomson Banker; Aranca Research
Date Announced
Apr 2010 Mar 2010 Mar 2010 Feb 2010
Acquirer Name
Reliance Industries Ltd Investor Group Natural Power Venture Pvt Ltd Investor Group
Target Name
Atlas Energy Inc-Marcellus Gulfsands Petroleum PLC Great Offshore Ltd Republic of Venezuela-Carabobo
15.3 13.0
14.2
15.3 13.1
15.9
15.2
Highest reserve accretion in the last ONGC two registered decades highest 83.5 ever oil million production toe
ONGC recorded ONGC highest-ever reported net net profit of Domestic profit of USD5.2 crude USD3.9 billion in productio billion in 2012 n up 2.1 2011 per cent Highestever dividend payout of USD1.6 billion
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Reliance Industries is a leading company in the petrochemical, refining and oil & gas industry The company was ranked 99th in the Fortune Global 500 list 2012 It contributes 14 per cent to India's exports (Mar 2011) and 4.6 per cent of total market capitalisation in the country
Turnover increased by 9.2 per cent in FY13 Exports increased by 15 per cent to USD44.1 billion Record crude throughput at 68.5 million tonnes US shale: FY13 revenue and EBITDA at USD616 million and USD483 million respectively
EBITDA Turnover
FY12
FY13
USD66.8 billion
USD68.4 billion
USD7.3 billion
USD7.1 billion
Net Profit
USD3.9 billion
USD3.9 billion
Reliance Industries has entered into JVs with various companies across segments to align growth opportunities; it signed JVs with Atlas, Pioneer, Carrizo SIBUR, and D.E. Shaw as well as entered into a strategic alliance with BP recently.
Source: Company Reports; Aranca Research
Upstream segment
Locating new fields for exploration: 78
Midstream segment
Expansion in the transmission network
Downstream segment
Development in city gas distribution
of gas pipelines
LNG
imports have increased significantly; this provides an opportunity to boost production capacity
construct new refineries considering advantages such as low operation costs, lesser freight charges and favourable policies
producing techniques
Increased demand for skilled labour
huge opportunity lies for LNG terminal operation, engineering, procurement and construction services
India has 63 tcf of recoverable shale gas reserves The Cambay, Krishna Godavari, Cauvery, and the Damodar Valley are the most prospective sedimentary basins for carrying
basin in the country), spread across 20,000 gross square miles with a prospective area of 1,940 square miles
It is estimated that the Krishna Godavari (KG) basin encloses a series of organically rich shales, containing around 27 tcf of
technically recoverable gas. KG basin, located in Eastern India, holds the countrys largest shale gas reserves, extending over 7,800 gross square miles with a prospective area of around 4,340 square miles
India is likely to launch bidding for shale gas exploration toward the end of 2013 In April 2012, the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) submitted its draft policy on exploitation of shale gas to the
Name
Oil Industry Development Board (OIDB) Petroleum Conservation Research Association (PCRA) Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE)
Address
301, World Trade Centre, Babar Road, New Delhi 110001 Sanrakshan Bhavan, 10 Bhikaji Cama Place, New Delhi 110066 Ministry of Power, 4th floor, SEWA Bhawan, RK Puram, New Delhi 110066 Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, 7th floor, New Delhi House, 27 Barakhamba Road, New Delhi 110001 Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, 2nd floor, Core-8, SCOPE Complex, 7 Institutional Area, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110003 Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, C-139, Sector 63, Noida 201301
Contact person
Mr T S Balasubramanian, Financial Adviser and Chief Accounts Officer Mr Arun Kumar, ED
Telephone
91-11- 23413298 91-11- 23414692 91-11- 26198799 Ext.301 91-11- 26178316, 91-11- 26179699
E-mail
oidb@hotmail.com
pcra@pcra.org
dg-bee@nic.in, amathur@beenet.in
Mr J B Verma, ED
91-11- 23316798
verma.jb@gov.in
0120 - 4029401
dg@dghindia.org
B/D (or bpd): Barrels Per Day MBPD (or mbpd): Million Barrels Per Day BCM (or bcm): Billion Cubic Metres CBM: Coal Bed Methane CGD: City Gas Distribution E&P: Exploration and Production FDI: Foreign Direct Investment FY: Indian financial year (April to March) So FY12 implies April 2011 to March 2012 GoI: Government of India INR: Indian Rupee LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas
MMT (or mmt): Million Metric Tonne MMTPA (or mmtpa): Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum EBITDA: Earning Before Interest Taxes Depreciation Amortisation NRL: Numaligarh Refinery Limited CPCL: Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited HPCL: Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited BPCL: Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited IOC: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd EOL: Essar Oil Ltd RPL: Reliance Petroleum Limited MRPL: Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited PCCK: Petronet Cochin-Coimbatore-Karur PMHB: Petronet Mangalore-Hassan-Bangalore
NELP: New Exploration Licensing Policy TOE (or toe): Tonnes of Oil Equivalent USD: US Dollar ONGC: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of India IOCL: Indian Oil Corporation Limited
2007-08
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
40.24
45.91 47.41 45.57 47.94 54.31
2009
2010 2011 2012 2013
46.76
45.32 45.64 54.69 54.45
Average for the year
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