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Shipping Market Overview

Presentation to SAMI (Security Association for the Maritime Industry) London 2nd October 2013
Steve Gordon, Managing Director Clarkson Research Services Limited

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Agenda
1. Market Position 2. Seaborne Trade 3. World Fleet & Shipbuilding 4. Ownership 5. Summary

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1. Market Position

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Shipping Cycle 1965-2013: ClarkSea Index


(ClarkSea Index is a weighted average of earnings by tankers, bulkers, containerships & gas carriers)
$000/ day
60

Index avg value 90s: $12,018/day


50

2008 $48,000/day 2004 c.$40,000/day

Index avg value 00s: $21,690/day Index avg value 2012: $9,957/day

40

30

2000 c.$24,000/day

20

27th September 2013 - $12,298 / day highest level this year, driven by improved Capesize market.

10

0
1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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Cycle Position September 2013


VLCC Suezmax Aframax MR Capesize Panamax Handymax Handy Container 3,500 teu Container 1,700 teu Offshore - Jackups Offshore - Floaters LPG LNG -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% % deviation from 10 year average 20% 40%

Crude still struggling but Products & Chemicals better Some signs of improvement but rates still low by historical standards Earnings remain close to historic lows

This chart shows average earnings for each ship type as at September 2013 compared to the average 1 year timecharter earnings during the last 10 years.

LNG and Offshore more positive

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Shipping Downturn
$000/day 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

ClarkSea Index 2008-13

1. Huge Cash Pressures & Cost Focus 2. Surplus in the Volume Markets 3. Cash is King

September over $12,000 / day but fell as low as $7,920 / day in February

27th

4. Wide Spread Of Trading Regions & Demand OK 5. Some Sectors Better Position Small & Niche 6. Ships Still Trading & Slow Steaming but Not Laid Up 7. Big Change in Ship Economics Fuel & Regulations

OPEX Handymax c$6,000/day


0 May '09 May '10 May '11 May '12 May '08 Sept '08 Sept '09 Sept '10 May '13 Jan '08 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 Sep '11 Sep '12 Jan '13

8. Financing Squeeze 9. Ownership Changes

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2. Seaborne Trade

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World Seaborne Trade Growth


Historically, world seaborne trade expansion has generally been relatively well correlated to global economic growth. In 2003, trade exceeded more than a tonne for every person on the planet. 2009 was the first year of significant trade contraction since 1983. Sea trade cycles generally follow cycles in world GDP but not precisely. 2013 3.5% GDP growth and 4.0% growth in trade? In 2014, we expect trade to exceed 10 billion tonnes for the first time.
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

World Seaborne Trade Growth


bn tonnes Other Dry Gas Crude Oil Major Bulk Container Oil Products Minor Bulk %yoy %yoy 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f

-6%

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World Seaborne Trade


Growth in world seaborne trade in last decade led by Iron Ore Containers LNG Coal Vehicles
2002-12 Trade Growth, avg pa%
Iron Ore LNG Containers Baux./Alum. Coal Cars Oil Products Minor Bulk Grain LPG Crude Oil Other Dry Phos. Rock -2% 0% 2% 4%

Average per annum rate of around 4% per annum.

4.1% average

Source : CRSL, 2011.


6% 8% 10%

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Regional Share of World Imports 2012


Other Asia Europe China North America S&C America Sub-Sah. Africa 'Asia-M.East' Reg. IMPS 'Asia-M.East' Reg. EXPS 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

Share of Growth 2001-2012


100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Eur. Asia-ME IMPS Oth Asia N.Am Others China India Asia-ME EXPS

Million tonnes imports

Chinese imported around 20% of world total imports in 2012, more than N. America or Japan. In term of tonnage imports behind only the rest of Asia combined and Europe. Asia-M.East region imports 52% of world seaborne trade, exports account for 38%.
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Where Will The Trade Growth Be?


Growth in world seaborne trade likely to be led by import into China Other Asian economies Developing regions
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Oth Asia N.Am Others India China Eur.

Estimated Share of Trade Growth 2012-2024, Importers


% of tonnes

According to approximate projections Chinese import growth could account for 46% of the growth in tonnes in global seaborne imports, with other Indian imports accounting for 11% and other Asian economies 19%.

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Seaborne Trade Outlook


18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Period 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2010-10 %p.a. 8.3% 9.1% 3.5% 2.2% 3.7% 3.7%

M. tonnes

China Imports World Less China 1% Scenario 4% Scenario 7% Scenario

We expect trade to grow by 4-5% in 2013 but risks remain given economic developments / uncertainty and there is a lag on trade data. China accounts for over 40% of the growth in imports in the past decade. For planning purposes, 4% per annum growth in trade over the next decade does not seem unreasonable, backed by continued development of the globalised world economy. Our long-term sector-by-sector assumptions support this level of growth projection.
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Structural Patterns
US energy balance China and India Containers : Asia and Panama Offshore energy contribution Africa : energy and minerals Unlocking the Arctic Wildcards

Wildcards?
Globalisation vs Protectionism; Reshoring Political instability Fuel prices Infrastructure and supply Global economic growth story

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World Offshore Producing Regions


Offshore Oil Production 2013 Forecasts 4. Europe Offshore:2.9 m bpd Growth: -5% pa 1. N. America Offshore: 4.0 m bpd Growth: 0.2% pa 5. Med/ Caspian Offshore: 2.1 m bpd Growth: 0.2% pa 3. West Africa Offshore: 4.2 m bpd Growth: 3% pa 6. M East & India Offshore: 7.1 m bpd Growth: 2% pa 7. Asia Pacific Offshore: 3.4 m bpd Growth: 1% pa

2. S&C America Offshore: 2.8 m bpd Growth: 2% pa

September 2013 www.clarksons.com

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Offshore Oil Production & Forecast


Production fell between 2005 and 2010, but we expected growth to the 30m bpd level in the next five years. South America, Middle East and West Africa contribute the most absolute growth. North Sea & US Gulf steady or declining but still important.
35 30 million bpd 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
West Africa Middle East/ISC Asia Pacific NW Europe Mediterranean North America Latin America

Stagnation 1998 - 2010

Growth 2010 - 2020

September 2013 www.clarksons.com

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Offshore Fields Under Construction League Table By Country


Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country United States Brazil Angola Indonesia Norway United Kingdom China P.R. Australia India Malaysia Others Total No Fields 11 8 15 23 14 32 10 15 35 16 195 271 Avg Water Depth (m) 1,551 1,248 999 395 291 131 365 276 127 265 140 305 Avg Distance (km) 220 192 109 68 151 137 157 98 90 91 76 93 DD Ratio 3,753,691 1,916,633 1,636,786 614,512 612,182 577,060 573,029 403,188 398,210 386,836 9,919 34,237 1 5 2 1 16 26
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Large Fields (500 mboe+) 2 1

London, September 2013 | OFC Club Shipping Market Overview | Clarkson Research

East Africa OPA


CRSL-defined producing area located within the Middle East & Indian Sub-Continent OPR/producing region Constituent countries include: Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe Pre-2010 (discovery (discovery (discovery 2007) offshore E&P Songo Songo 1974, start-up 2004); Mnazi Bay 1982, start-up 2008); Msimbati 2007); Kiliwani North (discovery

Explosion in exploration activity since Q1 2010 following Anadarkos Windjammer gas discovery in Area 1 offshore Mozambique: 46 successful exploration and appraisal wells
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3. The World Fleet & Shipbuilding

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The World Fleet: GT


From 1990 to 2004 the fleet grew at 2-3% but then surged to 7-9%. Fleet growth is now starting to slow.
million GT, end year

The Size of the World Fleet (GT)


Historical Data Bulk Carriers Containerships Gas 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 Crude Oil & Products Combined Carriers General Cargo Other Specialised 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ytd
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Merchant Fleet August 2013: 1. 87,071 vessels over 100 GT 2. 1,120 million GT 3. $850 billion value

300 200 100 0

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Numb ers Tankers Bulkers Containerships MPP Ro Ro Other Dry Parcel and Specialised LPG LNG PCC Reefer Offshore Dredgers Tugs Cruise Ferries Other 11,611 9,527 5,106 3,169 1,346 16,740 1,905 1,250 373 748 1,450 9,960 2,158 15,287 358 5,985 618

% Share 13% 11% 6% 4% 2% 19% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 11% 2% 17% 0% 7% 1%

Tonna ge (GT) 273.3 378.2 180.4 21.0 16.1 30.3 14.8 13.4 37.2 34.5 5.0 48.3 4.4 4.2 17.3 15.9 1.0

% Share 25% 34% 16% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% 3% 0% 4% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0%

Growth 2009-12 (GT) 13% 47% 24% 6% -2% -2% 3% 7% 12% 20% -21% 25% 20% 14% 15% -2% 1%

2013 (f) 3% 9% 8% 3% -2% 0% 1% 3% 4% 1% -8% 10% 4% 3% 3% -2% 3%

O/B as % Fleet 11% 18% 20% 8% 10% 4% 5% 13% 24% 7% 0% 22% 6% 1% 16% 2% 0%

Merchant Fleet 1. 87,590 vessels over 100 GT 2. 1,098 million GT 3. $807 billion value

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Orderbook As & % Of Fleet


Orderbook % Fleet By (Dwt), Start Year
Orderbook % Fleet 60%

50%

Orderbook x 3.8 of Production

O/B as at August 2013 is 242m dwt $ 279bn


Orderbook x 1.5 of Production
36%

51% 48% 42%

40% 33% 30% 24% 20% 20% 14% 10% 25%

26%

16%

0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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Total Global Orderbook m.CGT


Global Orderbook by Country and Ship Type
Bulker Builder Country China P.R. South Korea Japan Philippines Italy Germany Brazil Taiwan Vietnam Romania Other Total 0.2 29.9 M.CGT 16.1 2.4 10.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.2 2.5 15.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.1 18.1 10.1 0.1 Tanker M.CGT 4.6 5.7 0.8 Containership M.CGT 7.1 8.4 0.5 0.9 Gas M.CGT 1.5 7.1 1.3 0.1 Other M.CGT 2.3 1.2 0.9 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 8.2 Total M.CGT 31.5 24.8 13.7 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.9 79.8

Indicates market leader for each type


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Offshore & Marine Orderbook Product Mix Changing


Marine $163bn
Tankers 16.0% Bulkers 31.3% Other 16.2%
Logistics 2%

$182 bn Offshore $182bn


Rescue & Utility Support Salvage 1% Supply Survey 0% 8% 2% AHTS 4%

Mobile Offshore Production 20%

Mobile Offshore Drilling 52%

Gas 14.5%

Contship s 21.4%

Construction 11%

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World Offshore Fleet


World Offshore Fleet as at September 1, 2013 (No of Units)
Seismic Hydrographic Research Jack Up Semi Sub Drilling Drill Ship & Barges Crane Vessels Pipe Layer Cable laying Transport Const. Platforms Accommodation MSV/DSV/ROV Offshore Dredgers FPSO Semi Sub MOPU TLP/Spar Jack-Up Floating storage Shuttle Tankers SPMs Anchor handling PSV/Support Rescue & Salvage Other Support

Research and Survey Vessel fleet Mobile Drilling Unit fleet

Construction vessel fleet

Mobile Production fleet Logistics fleet

Support Vessel fleet 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
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Mobile Offshore Age Profile


800 700 600
No Structures

Mobile Structures (LHS)

Oil Price (RHS)

135 120 105 90 US$/bbl 75

500 400

60 300 200 100 0 <=1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 45 30 15 0

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Rising Fuel Costs


30,000

$/day

25,000

MR 1 Year Timecharter Rate

20,000

15,000

10,000

MR Bunker Cost $/day


5,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

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Environmental Regulation Timeline

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Age Profile 8% of fleet above 25 years


110 m.GT

Fleet
90

Orderbook

Contracting

Demolition

Contracting reached 179m GT in 2007

70

50

30

Relatively few vessels built in the 1980s so limited replacement requirement

10 1971* 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016+
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-10

Source : World Fleet Register, August 2013

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World Fleet Growth Development


Million GT
1,200

Fleet growth peaked at c. 9% in 2010

10% 9%

By 2023 our forecasts suggest the fleet will top 1.5 billion GT

1,000

Fleet, end year


8%

800

Fleet Growth % (RHS)

7% 6%

600

5% 4%

400 3%

200

Projected deliveries based on current orderbook.

2% 1% 0%

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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4. Ownership and Flag Trends

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World Fleet by Owner


Fleet (No) Europe Asia/Pacific Americas Africa, MidEast, S. Asia Greece Japan China Germany South Korea Others Total 29,945 36,308 8,982 7,993 Fleet (GT) 501.2 448.1 91.5 75.2 Value ($bn) 366.4 295.1 129.2 55.2 2013 Growth 1.7% 4.1% 0.9% 4.3% OB (GT) 69.9 61.2 17.3 4.8 OB % 13.9% 13.7% 18.9% 6.3%

4,673 8,600 6,236 4,316 2,657 60,589 87,071

157.5 157.3 110.8 96.5 54.4 543.7 1,120.2

78.6 104.0 68.9 60.4 27.9 510.8 850.6

4.2% 2.0% 4.6% -1.5% 5.8% 2.6% 2.7%

23.3 13.6 22.6 8.4 6.8 92.1 166.8

14.8% 8.6% 20.4% 8.7% 12.6% 16.9% 14.9%

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Investor League Table


($bn) Country 20052008 (av) 21.2 23.2 21.3 11.4 12.2 11.8 8.2 5.2 2.8 6.3 58.1 181.7 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ytd 4.3 1.6 1.9 7.2 5.3 6.8 2.2 1.1 0.1 1.1 19.4 51.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Others Total Greece Japan Germany United States China P.R. Norway South Korea Singapore Brazil Italy 3.0 4.0 1.6 2.1 7.4 0.4 2.1 1.5 5.4 1.1 12.6 41.2 13.3 8.6 3.0 6.0 16.9 6.4 4.7 5.3 4.7 2.8 35.8 107.4 13.5 5.8 3.4 16.7 6.4 9.3 3.0 5.8 6.1 0.8 32.3 103.2 6.7 4.6 1.8 12.0 4.6 16.9 1.8 3.3 10.0 1.8 23.8 87.3

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Top Shipping Fleets 1999-2013


In downturns change is common. Greece and Japan are the two biggest fleets neck and neck China has overtaken Germany to take the third position and the fleet is growing rapidly. German shipping faces the problems of the future of the KG system.
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Million Gross Tonnes

Greece China

Japan Germany

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Merchant Shipping Offshore Trend Continues


1,000 900

Offshore Flag Tonnage Nudges 1 Billion GT 72% of the merchant fleet is now registered offshore - up from 42% 23 years ago The UN based system is facing complex technical challenges. Surge of piracy raises many issues about global maritime regulation.

800

National & Foreign Flag Fleets M GT


700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Foreign Flag National Flag

Top 5 Flags: Panama, Liberia, Marshal Is., HK, Singapore. First national flag is China in 8th position.

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Piracy Incidents
Region/Ship Type No Incidents 2010 E.Africa-Aden-MG South & East Asia West Africa Other Oil Tankers Bulk Carriers General Cargo Specialised Non-Cargo TOTAL 82 27 12 4 38 31 33 14 9 125 2011 145 64 32 11 77 63 54 30 28 252 2012 63 107 51 25 80 62 48 29 27 246 Vessels Captured 2010 26 1 0 0 8 6 9 3 1 27 2011 22 1 6 0 10 10 3 5 1 29 2012 6 1 2 0 5 2 2 0 0 9

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Piracy Incidents

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5. Summary

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Summary
In 2013, we have been at the bottom of the cycle and market conditions are still very challenging. Some of the niche sectors have been better positioned Offshore, Gas, Chemicals, Products. Following the demand shock in 2009, trade has recovered well and we expect 4% growth in 2013. In 2014 we forecast trade will top 10 billion tonnes for the first time. 4% is a good base case for the future assuming globalisation. Fleet growth is slowing, from 8% in 2011 to 5% in 2012. We expect growth to drop to 4% in 2013 but watch out for further ordering. Despite the poor spot market conditions, we have seen newbuild interest from investors in 2013 but the relative product mix has changed with offshore and gas prominent. Regulatory Economics & Fuel Economics are driving current investment. Financing remains difficult and has limited investment but there are new sources. Asian owners growing market share with double the fleet growth of Europeans in 2013. Greeks and Japanese the largest owners but China has surged past Germany. Norwegians, Greeks and Chinese have topped the investment charts in recent years.
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Clarkson Researchs Product Offering


Clarkson Researchs offering includes a wide range of hardcopy periodicals and digital products including: World Fleet Monitor World Fleet Register

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Contacts at Clarkson Research


For more information on the products and services that we offer, please visit our web shop: www.crsl.com Please to contact us directly if you would like to discuss these further or place an order.

Stephen Gordon Managing Director Tel: +44 (0) 207 334 3439 Email: stephen.gordon@clarksons.com

Anna Trznadel Sales and Marketing Tel: +44 (0) 207 334 5460 Email: anna.trznadel@clarksons.com

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The information supplied herewith is believed to be correct but the accuracy thereof is not guaranteed and the Company and its employees cannot accept liability for loss suffered in consequence of reliance on the information provided. Provision of this data does not obviate the need to make further appropriate enquiries and inspections. The information is for the use of the recipient only and is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance without the written permission of Clarkson Research Services Limited. The statistical and graphical information contained herein is drawn from the Clarkson Research Services Limited ("CRSL") database and other sources. CRSL has advised that: (i) some information in CRSL's database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; and (ii) the information in the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the information in CRSL's database; and (iii) whilst CRSL has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the statistical and graphical information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; and (iv) CRSL, its agents, officers and employees do not accept liability for any loss suffered in consequence of reliance on such information or in any other manner; and (v) the provision of such information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (vi) the provision of such information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by CRSL; and (vii) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it cannot be very accurate.

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