DETTORITS SNOWIEST WINTER WITH 2013-2014 SEASON REACHING RECORD LEVELS EVIDENCE FOR AN OPTIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAXIMUM

SNOWFALL FROM HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA (1959-2014) FOR DETROIT By V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.
A recent Detroit Free Press article (Feb 18, 2014 by Christina Hall, posted by our Facebook friend Venkatalakshmi Lakshmanan on Feb 19, 2014 see http://www.freep.com/article/20140217/NEWS05/302170093/snowmetro-detroit) gives snowfall data for the snowiest winters on record .

First of all, notice that 6 of the 16 snowiest years are from the 21st century (2001 to present). Also, we have 6 for the 20th century (from 1907 to 1982)
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and four are from the 19th century (data from 1880 to 1900). Actually, reliable global average temperature records, compiled by NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) are only available from 1880. And here, we see 1880-1881 as the tops in the snowiest, with 93.6 inches of snow. And, we had 4 of the 16, or 25% of the snowiest seasons in the last 10 years of the 19th century as it ended. And, now in just the first 14 seasons of the 21st century, we are already close to the all-time record in Detroit. _________________________________________________ Heres my Facebook post on February 19, 2014 (made ~ 2:13 PM) BEATING THE SNOWIEST RECORD: BABY ICE CRYSTALS NEEDED Vj Laxmanan uploaded a file in the group Global Warming for the Layman. WILL WE BEAT THE RECORD FOR THE SNOWIEST WINTER? After seeing Venkatalakshmi Lakshmanan post on the snowiest winters for Detroit, I took a quick look at the snowfall-temperature relation, which got me interested in digging into the data some more. Now, I have the whole story. Producing snow, record snow, is not easy. Mother Nature gets a bit quirky. To produce snow, very tiny ice crystals must first nucleate and they must then grow. "Nucleation" and growth is kind of like producing a baby. Everything must be just right. Water does not start freezing exactly at 0 deg C or 32 deg F. The temperature must drop below the freezing point, to provide the driving force needed for the "nucleation", or the embryonic state of the ice crystal. What if the temperature is decreased and becomes too low? Will a lot of snow be produced? As we see from the historical data for the month of January, for Detroit (weather station at the Metro airport), in 1991 it got really really cold,, 8.8 deg F average
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temperature, but there was no snow. The Jan 2014 record that we are seeing was with an average temperature that was much higher, 16.4 deg F. Thus, we have empirical evidence for an optimum temperature for maximum snowfall. So, will we beat the record this season? Remember, it all depends on whethere those baby ice crystals will be produced - nucleate - and then grow - and then they just come dumping on us with the fury of a blizzard. The updated file has Figure 6 which shows this optimum temperature for maximum snowfall. ______________________________________________ Table 1: The global average temperatures for December-February of the years of interest with record snowfalls
Season 1880-81 1884-85 1898-99 1899-1900 1907-08 1925-26 1929-30 1974-75 1977-78 1981-82 2002-03 2004-05 2007-08 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 DJF Avg. temp (C) 13.57 13.21 13.56 13.74 13.59 14.27 13.70 14.05 14.16 14.28 14.73 14.83 14.55 14.76 14.70 14.93 Snowfall inches 93.6 61.6 60.2 69.1 67.2 78.9 67.2 63.1 61.7 74 60.9 63.8 71.7 65.7 69.1 72.9 Dec -31 -86 -24 -23 -61 19 -57 -4 14 47 53 66 70 75 71 82 Jan -59 -82 -47 -52 -32 26 -20 8 14 11 91 96 49 76 72 103 Feb -38 -69 -61 -3 -29 36 -13 10 20 25 74 88 45 76 66 DJF -42.6667 -79 -44 -26 -40.6667 27 -30 4.666667 16 27.66667 72.66667 83.33333 54.66667 75.66667 69.66667 92.5 TB 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

Data source: NASA GISS website http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts.txt Explanation of table values: The last column gives the global average temperature for the base-period, taken as 1951-1980 by NASA. For the base period the average temperature TB = 14 C. The numbers in columns December, January, and February are called the anomalies (TA). This is the deviation of the actual temperature T from TB, which is either positive or negative, and is given as whole numbers in units of 0.01C. For 2013-2014, we
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already have the value for January 2014. The table value of 103 equals a deviation of 1.03 C from TB. This gives T = TA + TB = 14.93C for this season, with average based on only two months to date. We calculate the three month average for each season and thus the three average T for each season, given in the second column, following the year. ******************************* Going a step further, I decided to check the correlation between snowfall and the global average temperature, which is readily available. Actually, it would be nicer to correlate the snowfall levels to the local temperatures in Detroit area, rather than the global average temperature. Nonetheless, since we are dealing with a global phenomenon, affected by global atmospheric events, as a first step, we can try to use the global average values for the months of December, January, and February (DJF average as it is called). This data is readily available at the NASA GISS website and has been compiled as Table 1.
100

Snowfall [inches]

90 80 70 60 50 40 13.00

y = -0.8808x + 81.268 R = 0.0032

13.50

14.00

14.50

15.00

15.50

Global average temperature (DJF) C Figure 1: Snowiest season in Detroit and the global average temperatures for the three months of December, January, and February (DJF). The box gives the statistical correlation. The temperature data are from NASA GISS website. 13C
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= 55.4 F. The conversion table is : (C, F) (13.0, 55.4), (13.5, 56.3), (14.0, 57.2), (14.5, 58.1), (15.0, 59.0), (15.5, 59.9) Now, we can study the correlation between T and the snowfall levels. The same should be repeated with the Detroit temperatures for each season, instead of the global values used. For the moment, let us see if there is any correlation. (I have previously studied precipitation P, which includes both rain and snowfall and found a correlation between the maximum P and the local average temperature T for each year.) It looks like there is no significant correlation between the snowfall levels and the global average temperatures for the three months of DJF. The downward sloping line (dash-dot) is the linear regression line deduced from standard statistical analysis. It was generated automatically by the Microsoft Excel program by clicking on Add trendline and then picking linear as the trendline option. The small value r2 = 0.0032 means that we cannot attach any statistical significance to this correlation. What does this mean then? Now, we must appeal to physics of the problem. The higher the temperature, the higher will be the evaporation rates and therefore more moisture will be carried from bodies of water like lakes, seas, oceans and river into the atmosphere. This is what comes down as rain or snow. Hence, we should expect a positive correlation between the precipitation (or snowfall) and the temperature T; see the dashed red lines. We do see this if we take the two points for 1880-81 (highest snowfall value of 93.6 inches and 13.57 C) and 1884-85 (61.6 inches of snow, and 13.21C). We also see a small positive slope between the 1884-85 point and the current 2013-2014 (with 72.9 inches and 14.93 C). Or, we can argue that there is a negative correlation by comparing the peak to the current season value. Of course, the season is not over and we might beat the record for the snowiest winter, in which case the slope will become positive. Lets see.
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100 90

Snowfall [inches]

80 70 60 50 40 13.0

III

II

I
13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5

Global average temperature (DJF) C Figure 2: A maximum point is revealed using a nonlinear (polynomial) analysis. The lower dashed curve I, y = ax2 + bx + c is the curve given by the Microsoft Excel program with a =-5.9908, b = 168.39 and c = -1112.08. The curve II is generated by adjusting the value of the constants a =-58.6, b = 168.39 and c = 1112. The xs represent a third curve with a = 6.65, b = 176 and c = -1080. The slope of the curve and its shape is affected by the choice of the constants. Physics (and chemistry), rather than statistics, should dictate our understanding of global warming phenomenon. Precipitation and snowfall involve what is known as nucleation and growth processes. Water does not start freezing at 0 C, exactly. A certain amount of undercooling (i.e., the temperature must fall below 0 C or 32 F) is required before ice crystals begin to form and then the growth of the solid phase is rapid. The same applies for conversion of vapor to water drops to produce rain. Hence, we would expect that there is an optimum temperature at which there is a maximum precipitation, instead of just a positive or a negative correlation. I have discussed this in recent posts made at Wordpress.com and also at scribd.com The maximum point is observed if we choose Polynomial as our trendline option, instead of linear. This is shown in Figure 2.
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If I can find the data for the local average temperatures in Detroit for the same years, I will update this analysis and see if we can find a maximum point. The mathematical equation y = mxne-ax , which is a simplified version of Plancks blackbody radiation law, also reveals a maximum point in the x-y graph, at x = n/a. This simplified form of Plancks equation, also known as Wiens law, was actually used by Einstein to develop this theory of light quanta; see discussion in [2, 3, 4, 7].

*********************************
Heres the update, with local temperature data for Detroit Metropolitan Airport weather station for the same years in the 21st century. The data is summarized in the Table 2. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Monthly average temperature [F] Figure 3: The monthly average temperature and the total snowfall for reach month recorded for the weather station at Detroit Metropolitan Airport in the snowiest years mentioned in the Detroit Free Press article. The three months of December, January and February are considered for each year. There is a clear negative correlation observed. At any given temperature, there is a range of
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Monthly Snowfall [inches]

snowfalls with the maximum snowfall following the relation y = ax + b where the slope a is negative. Instead of the two maximum snowfall values (16.4, 39.1) and (24.8, 32.1), joined by the dashed line, I have used the two points (16.4, 39.1) and (29.6, 12,2) to illustrate the negative trend. In an earlier article on the precipitation-temperature relation for several countries, see ref. [4], it was shown that both a positive and a negative correlation with total precipitation (rain plus snow) and temperature is observed.

Table 2: Monthly average temperature and snowfall for Detroit Metropolitan Airport Weather Station
Month Jan-14 Dec-13 Feb -11 Jan-11 Dec-10 Feb-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Feb-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Feb-05 Jan-05 Dec-04 Feb-03 Jan-03 Dec-02 Avg. temp (deg F) 16.4 27 24.8 21.8 25.6 28.5 17.3 27.4 25.2 28.9 29.6 24.1 28.4 29.7 20.5 23.1 28.7 Total snowfall (Inches) 39.1 15.5 32.1 17.9 9.3 8.5 25.2 21.4 24.2 13.8 12.2 26.9 12.5 12.5 13.9 19.2 13.1

http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_DetroitMetropolitanArpt_Detroit_MI_December.html

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Monthly Snowfall [inches]

45 40 35 30 25 20

Snowiest six winters DJF data, 21st century

15
10 5 0 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

Monthly average temperature [F] Figure 4: The two lines with the negative slope are virtually parallel to each other. For the upper line y = -2.04x + 72.52 and for the lower dashed line y = 1.92x + 58.34. As discussed in other articles listed, the nonzero intercept b in the linear law is like the photoelectric work function of Einstein. Here the work function has to do with the difficulty to produce snow given the atmospheric conditions and the temperature prevailing. Nucleation and growth of the ice crystals (also influenced by presence of aerosols, for example, and other particulate matter in the air) is the barrier to production of snow. Hence, we see different amounts of snowfall for the same temperature and there is also a maximum snowfall, for each temperature. The existence of a maximum point on the graph of snowfall versus temperature is confirmed if we consider the data for a single month (here January) for all the years for which data is available (1959 to 2014), see Figure 5. The data is compiled in Table 3 for convenience.

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January Snowfall [inches]

45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0

y = -0.025x2 + 0.6353x + 11.677 R = 0.1581

15.0
10.0 5.0 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

January average temperature [F] Figure 5: The snowfall data for the month of January (1959 to 2014) is plotted here against the average temperature for January. If we give credence to the one single data point for 1991 (2.50 F, 8.80 inches) when the temperature was very low and snowfall at record low levels, we see clear evidence for a maximum point. Now, choosing the polynomial trendline, y = ax2 + bx + c, quantifies this maximum with a mathematical equation. Next, allowing the parameters (a, b, c) to vary around the values obtained by nonlinear regression (least squares method) illustrates the appearance of the maximum point even more dramatically, as seen in Figure 6.

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45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 January average temperature [F]

Figure 6: A very dramatic illustration of the optimum temperature for the maximum snowfall. For the upper curve, a = -0.08, b = 1.9 and c = 29.5. For the lower curve, a = -0.07, b = 2.5 and c = 2.5. The slope of the curve, or the derivative dy/dx = 2ax + b and the shape and the position of the maximum point is thus affected by the choice of the (a, b) values. The nonzero c shifts the curve up or down. The two curves here are chosen to illustrate the maximum around 17 C. One curve also passes through the low snow fall, low temperature data point. The other curve passes through the maximum snow fall point. Data source
http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_DetroitMetropolitanArpt_Detroit_MI_January.html

The same trend is also observed if we consider the snowfall data recorded at the Detroit Metropolitan Airport, for the month of December, from 1959 to 2013. This is illustrated in Figure 7.

January Snowfall [inches]

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December Snowfall [inches]

40 35 y = -0.0351x2 + 1.2449x + 4.7264 R = 0.2655

30
25 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

December average temperature [F] Figure 7: Dramatic illustration of the optimum temperature for the maximum snowfall. The lower (dashed-dot) curve is the least squares polynomial, y = ax2 + bx + c, generated by the Microsoft Excel program (see box for the equation). The upper curve is generated by adjusting the parameters b and c to change the shape and the maximum value: a = -0.08, b = 0.72 and c = 23.5. The nonzero c shifts the curve up or down. The two curves here again illustrate a maximum around 17 C with the upper curve enveloping the maximum recorded snowfall at each temperature.
Data source http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_DetroitMetropolitanArpt_Detroit_MI_December.html

REFERENCES [1] Laxmanan, V., (Vj), Global Warming for the Layman, The link to reference 7 is posted here and also on Twitter, Linked In and Google+ https://www.facebook.com/groups/GWforlayman/ Laxmanan, V., A Re-analysis of the 21st Century NASA GISS Global Average Temperature Data Using Millikans Method for Determining Two Universal Constants of Nature, Published February 18, 2014,
http://www.scribd.com/doc/207886325/A-RE-ANALYSIS-OF-THE-21STCENTURY-NASA-GISS-GLOBAL-AVERAGE-TEMPERATURE-DATA-USINGPage 12 of 13

[2]

MILLIKAN%E2%80%99S-METHOD-FOR-THE-DETERMINATION-OF-TWOUNIVERSAL-CONSTANTS-O

[3]

Laxmanan, V., The Reported Global Warming Hiatus is Neither a Recent Nor a Temporary One, http://www.scribd.com/doc/206892158/THEREPORTED-GLOBAL-WARMING-HIATUS-IS-NEITHER-A-RECENT-NOR-ATEMPORARY-ONE

[4]

Laxmanan, V., On the Generalization of Einsteins Idea of the Photoelectric Work Function: Example From Scandinavian Climate Data,
http://www.scribd.com/doc/206581016/ON-THE-GENERALIZATION-OFEINSTEIN%E2%80%99S-IDEA-OF-THE-PHOTOELECTRIC-WORK-FUNCTIONEXAMPLE-FROM-SCANDINAVIAN-CLIMATE-DATA

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

[9]

Laxmanan, V., The Historical Climate data for Yakutsk, Russia, one of the coldest cities in the world, February 2, 2014, http://vlaxmanan.wordpress.com/2014/02/03/the-historical-climatedata-for-yakutsk-russia-one-of-the-coldest-cities-on-earth/ Laxmanan, V., A Universal Law for the Earths Temperature-time Relation, January 29, 2014 http://vlaxmanan.wordpress.com/2014/01/29/a-universal-law-forthe-temperature-time-relation-for-the-earths-climate-system/ Laxmanan, V., A Re-analysis of the 21st Century NASA GISS Global Average Temperature Data Using Millikans Method for Determining Two Universal Constants of Nature, Published February 19, 2014, http://vlaxmanan.wordpress.com/2014/02/19/a-re-analysis-of-the21st-century-nasa-giss-global-average-temperature-data-usingmillikans-method-for-the-determination-of-two-universal-constants-ofnature/ Laxmanan, V., Generalization of Einsteins Idea of the Photoelectric Work Function: Example from Scandinavian Climate Data, Published February 12, 2014, http://vlaxmanan.wordpress.com/2014/02/12/118/ Laxmanan, V., Is nonlinear analysis more readily accepted compared to a linear analysis? ResearchGate Q & A, February 19, 2014, https://www.researchgate.net/post/Is_nonlinear_analysis_more_readil y_accepted_compared_to_a_linear_analysis#share

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