An independent standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk, raise

awareness, promote mitigation and insurance use, and stimulate risk transfer

Over 420,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in
the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. But
in many seismic regions, no hazard models exist, and even where models do exist, they
are intelligible only by experts or available only to paying customers. We believe that
better risk awareness can reduce the toll that earthquakes take, by leading to better
construction, improved emergency response, and greater access to insurance. The Global
Earthquake Model (GEM) answers this need, as an internationally sanctioned program
initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

GEM will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating quake
hazard and risk, and will be the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that
reduce earthquake losses worldwide. All who face risk, from homeowners to
governments, need accurate and transparent risk information before they will take
mitigating action. Our goal is to enable risk reduction by providing the information in a
manner that is understandable to all users, regardless of their background or location.

GEM will create a common framework for reducing earthquake risk by building on
recent technical advances in seismic knowledge and improved international cooperation
in research and practice, including the 1992-1999 Global Seismic Hazards Assessment
Project (GSHAP). GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and
engineering knowledge of earthquakes, in three modules, hazard, risk, and economics.
The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting
shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and
damage based on expected shaking, population, building vulnerability and inventory.
The economic risk module of GEM estimates monetary losses as a consequence of
earthquakes, and delivers tools for making educated decisions on managing risk.

GEM will be a versatile online tool with a map-based graphical interface. Its modular
input and output can be varied to suit multiple user groups:

A government ministry uses GEM to decide how best to deploy its limited resources:
systematically strengthen buildings, enforce the building code for new construction, or
issue a national catastrophe bond for emergency response funds.

A homeowner or company uses GEM to learn if the property is at risk, and to decide
whether to buy earthquake insurance, seismically retrofit, or relocate.

An investor uses GEM to compare the earthquake probabilities of a given instrument to

those in an offering circular, and to decide what price to pay for it. This information is
available to both buyer and seller, increasing confidence in a fair transaction.

GEM will be the first global, open source model for seismic risk assessment at a national
and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence,
and better access to national datasets. GEM development will occur in a coordinated
global network of regional centers, with a high degree of interaction among the centers
and the central secretariat. Broad acceptance of the models will be ensured by including
local knowledge in all aspects of hazard and risk assessment and securing participation
of local experts through development. All GEM efforts will be carried out using a
common global computer infrastructure and consensus standards, and all contributions,
including models, tools, and data, will be rigorously vetted—and independently
tested—to ensure uniformity and conformance with the highest scientific standards.

GEM has reached 50% of its funding goal of € 35 million, with support from Munich Re,
Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide, and the Swiss, German and Singapore
governments. GEM sponsors gain a guiding role, and they benefit from early insight for
optimal usage, early access to emerging insurance and bond markets, and a visible
affiliation with a market-making public standard. Sponsors from both public and private
sources are cooperatively joining forces in this unique five-year alliance that promotes a
larger involvement of the insurance and financial sectors in serving a humanitarian
imperative and offering a key to sustainable development.
GEM's founders have a proven track record of achieving authoritative global consensus on
earthquake hazard. Domenico Giardini (ETH Zurich) led the 1995-1999 Global Seismic Hazard
Assessment Project (GSHAP), resulting in the first comprehensive global map of seismic shaking,
a catalyst for building code development. Ross Stein (USGS Menlo Park) led international
seismic hazard assessments for Istanbul (1999-2000) and Tokyo (2004-2007), and helped to
build in the 2008 California statewide hazard forecast. Jochen Zschau (GFZ Potsdam) is past
vice-president of the European Seismological Commission, serves on the steering committee of
the World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction, and is GEM’s liaison
to the OECD. Structural engineer and MBA Kate Stillwell is GEM’s Acting Executive Director.

domenico.giardini@sed.ethz.ch / rstein@usgs.gov / zschau@gfz-potsdam.de / kstillwell@mba.berkeley.edu

+41 1 633 2610 +1 650 329 4840 +49 331 288 1200 +1 650 303 7906

Motivation for GEM: Growing population in hazardous cities could lead to mega
disasters and global losses

Dhaka Tokyo
Kolkata

Istanbul Manila
Mexico City Jakarta
L.A. Tehran

Lima
 GEM Precursor: UN/IDNDR Global Seismic Hazards Assessment Program Map, 2000

In 50 years, there is a
10% chance of
exceeding the
indicated ground
acceleration (in g) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 g

Sources of GEM Sponsorship

15m € Founding sponsor, Munich Re

€5m
Other sponsors (in progress)
15m €
Public Funds (in progress)
 Proposed GEM Governance Structure

Group  Overall Goal  Members  Tasks  Meetings 

Governing  Set and  • Private sponsors  • Establish strategy  2 times per 
Board (GB)  maintain  • Public sponsors  • Allocate funding  year, 
overall  • Governments  • Provide political backing  Kickoff 
direction of  • World Bank  • Monitor projects  meeting 
GEM.  Ensure  • IAEE  • Oversee and advise BD  Fall 2008  
maximum  • IASPEI  • Promote GEM externally 
global impact.  • OECD GSF 
Science  Establish  Approx. 30 to 40  • Set GEM standards  First 
Advisory  scientific  established experts,  • Oversee scientific quality  meeting 
Committee  authority of  representation  • Ensure global relevance  June 08, 
(SAC)  GEM.  Guide  from each module.   • Ensure regional ownership  plus once 
BD and GB.  per year. 
Board of  Deliver GEM  3 director positions  • Raise Funds  3 times per 
Directors  Outcomes  permanently  • Run contracts  year plus 
(BD)    associated with  • Detailed resource allocation  bi‐weekly 
Governing  institutions.  • Oversee regional center  conference 
Board will set  Remaining  • Approve regional budgets  calls 
policy for  positions are  • Monitor work of other   
selection of  appointed by GB  centers 
Board of  and have 2‐year  • Monitor compliance with 
Directors  renewable terms.  consensus standards