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Assessment
Excellent fundamentals Superior fundamentals Good fundamentals Moderate fundamentals Poor fundamentals
Assessment
Strong upside (>25% from CMP) Upside (10-25% from CMP) Align (+-10% from CMP) Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP) Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)
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Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.
Disclaimer:
This Company commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd. (CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / repor t is subject to change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The subscriber / user assume the entire risk of any use made of this data / report. CRISIL especially states that, it has no financial liability whatsoever, to the subscribers / user s of this report. This report is for the personal information only of the authorised recipient in India only. This report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.
132 133
Fundamental Grade
Dhanuka Agritech Ltd (Dhanuka) manufactures branded pesticide formulations and holds ~5% share of the domestic crop protection market. Adverse weather-led subdued demand for agrochemicals slowed down Dhanukas revenue growth in FY13. However, with a normal monsoon expected through most of FY14, we believe Dhanuka is well positioned to take advantage of the growth prospects in the industry. Based on its pan-India distribution network, diversified product basket, product pipeline, management experience and higher RoE than that of peers, we reiterate the fundamental grade of 4/5 for Dhanuka. Expect industry to rebound in FY14; remain positive on long-term prospects Monsoons are expected to be normal in FY14. Consequently, we expect the pesticide industry to post higher growth in FY14. Over a longer horizon, burgeoning population coupled with stagnant agricultural output will make it imperative to arrest crop loss and, therefore, increase the usage of agrochemicals. We estimate the agrochemical industry to grow by 1215% per annum going forward. Management continues to focus on product tie-ups and augmenting distribution Tie-ups with innovator companies and expansion of the distribution network have led to an impressive growth in the operations over FY08-11. The company currently has ~7,400 dealers/distributors (~7,200 in FY12) across India and a well-diversified product portfolio (80+ products). It has launched three specialty molecules (one each of insecticide, herbicide and fungicide) during FY13 in small regional pockets and received an encouraging response. The products are now slated for pan-India introduction. Dhanuka also plans to launch three specialty molecules over 2014-15 in collaboration with global chemical companies. Key risks: Weather conditions, pest occurrence and exchange rate volatility Adverse weather conditions and inadequate pest occurrence have direct implications on demand for pesticides. Since Dhanukas import exposure is more than 30% of its raw material costs, volatility in /$ exchange rate could impact margins. Other risks are lack of presence in exports (a pure domestic play), difficulty to completely pass on hikes in raw material costs to farmers and the governments ban on toxic products. Expect two-year revenue CAGR of 16% and EBITDA margin of 15% We expect revenues to increase to 7.9 bn by FY15, at a two-year CAGR of 16%, driven by a rebound in industry demand and Dhanukas continued thrust on launching new products as well as marketing and distribution. We expect EBITDA margin and PAT margin to remain at 15% and ~10% levels respectively. Valuations: Current market price is aligned We have used the discounted cash flow (DCF) method to value Dhanuka and maintain our fair value at 132. This value implies P/E multiples of 9.6x and 8.3x FY14E and FY15E EPS respectively.
5 4 3 2 1
Poor Fundamentals
Valuation Grade
Strong Downside Strong Upside
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
100% 90%
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 15.5% 15.5% 1.35% 8.3%
8.3%
75.0%
75.0%
75.0%
75.0%
KEY FORECAST
( mn) Operating income EBITDA Adj Net income Adj EPS () EPS growth (%) Dividend Yield (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY11 4,928 777 509 10.2 28.6 1.5 38.1 38.1 13.1 3.9 9.3 FY12 5,293 795 566 11.3 11.3 1.7 30.8 29.5 11.7 3.1 8.6 FY13# 5,869 865 644 12.9 13.8 2.1 30.3 27.0 10.3 2.5 8.0 FY14E 6,904 1,036 693 13.9 7.6 1.9 30.2 23.9 9.6 2.1 6.6 FY15E 7,903 1,186 800 16.0 15.4 1.9 29.0 22.8 8.3 1.7 5.7
ANALYTICAL CONTACT
Mohit Modi (Director) Prateek S Chauhan Bhaskar Bukrediwala Client servicing desk +91 22 3342 3561 clientservicing@crisil.com mohit.modi@crisil.com prateek.chauhan@crisil.com bhaskar.bukrediwala@crisil.com
NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price; # Based on abridged financials Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates
For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Plant growth regulators influence formation of flowers, stems, leaves and the development and ripening of the fruit/grain
Geographic presence
Absence of the technical segment restricts Dhanukas presence in the export market unlike large players such as United Phosphorus and Rallis. Though Dhanuka is a 100% domestic play, it has a presence across major agricultural regions with southern and western regions contributing ~60% to the top line. ~5% share of the domestic market with focus on formulations. Collaborates actively with MNCs to introduce high end specialty products Rallis India, Bayer CropScience, Insecticides India, PI Industries, United Phosphorus Burgeoning population amid declining rate of crop production make it essential to arrest crop loss and, therefore, lead to increase in the usage of pesticides Despite a rise in pesticide prices due to increased raw material costs, consistent increase in MSP (minimum support price) of major crops and the governments support to the agriculture sector by way of subsidies have kept the cost of pesticides affordable for farmers While pesticides may form only ~15% of a farmers operating costs, not applying pesticides may cause crop losses which are much higher in comparison to the cost of pesticides. Therefore, a farmers decision to spend on crop protection is mainly determined by the cost of crop production and farm produce prices Unpredictable weather and occurrence of pests/diseases Fluctuation in foreign exchange rates as one-third of Dhanukas raw materials are imported Delay in increase of MSP / decline in farm profitability
Demand driver
Grading Rationale
Long-term growth story intact
Owing to deficient monsoon - and consequently lower demand for agrochemicals - during the kharif season in FY13, the domestic agrochemical industry, including players such as Dhanuka, registered a slower growth rate in FY13; the industry reported a growth rate of 1215% over the past few years except FY12. Though the industry remains susceptible to adverse weather conditions, we believe that a well-entrenched player such as Dhanuka is fairly positioned to take advantage of the long-term growth opportunities: increasing need to improve agricultural productivity, thrust on usage of agrochemicals to minimise crop losses and fiscal stimulus from the government.
Dhanuka has continuously expanded its dealer/distributor network; it has 7,400 direct accounts across the country as of FY13 catering to over ~10 mn farmers in India. Dhanuka has also launched three specialty molecules (one each of insecticide, herbicide and fungicide) during FY13 in collaboration with MNCs. The products were launched in a few regional pockets and the off-take has been encouraging; the management now intends to launch these products on a pan-India basis. Dhanuka expects to launch three more products over FY14-15 in collaboration with MNC partners; these products will be introduced for the first time in India with Dhanuka having the exclusive marketing and distribution rights. We believe that Dhanuka is likely to introduce more products sourced from MNC partners going forward and we are confident of its ability to leverage its distribution network to increase sales.
Focus on improving agricultural productivity, usage of agrochemicals to minimise crop losses and fiscal stimulus from the government offer long-term growth opportunities
While Dhanukas revenue growth has slowed, it has been able to maintain a healthy balance sheet on account of the managements focus on debt reduction and receivables collection. D/E ratio has declined from 0.2x in FY12 to 0.1x in FY13. Debtor days, although historically high compared to other players, have moderated during FY13.
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Table 3: Kharif crop output declined due to erratic monsoons during 2012-13
2011-12 (mn tonnes) Crop name Rice Jowar Bajra Maize Ragi Small millets Coarse cereals Cereals Tur Urad Moong Other kharif pulses Total pulses Total food grains 2nd Advance estimates 90.2 3.0 9.7 16.1 2.3 0.7 31.8 122.0 2.7 1.3 1.5 0.9 6.4 128.4 Final estimates 92.8 3.3 10.3 16.5 1.9 0.5 32.5 125.2 2.7 1.2 1.2 0.9 6.1 131.3 2012-13 (mn tonnes) Target 90.0 3.5 10.0 17.0 2.3 0.7 33.5 123.5 3.1 1.4 1.1 1.5 7.1 130.6 2nd Advance estimates 90.7 2.6 8.2 15.6 1.8 0.4 28.5 119.2 2.8 1.3 0.8 0.6 5.5 124.7 Relative change in output compared to 2011-12 kharif season (%) (2.3) (21.2) (20.4) (5.5) (5.3) (20.0) (12.3) (4.8) 1.9 6.7 (30.0) (31.1) (9.8) (5.0)
However, we expect agrochemical sales in the southern region to lag the national average over the next few months. While the water levels of the 84 major reservoirs across India are above the long-term average, levels in reservoirs in southern (Karnataka) and western (Maharashtra and Gujarat) regions have depleted significantly. Also, the likelihood of continued power shortage/use of high cost power during first half of FY14 may impact the southern region. These factors coupled with lower cash availability with farmers - owing to three consecutive crop failures - are expected to result in lower agrochemical sales volume during H1FY14 but the same is expected to revive by the second half of FY14. Though normal south-west monsoons are likely to increase agrochemical consumption in the western region, low reservoir levels and a significant correction in prices of cash crops such as cotton over FY13 may play spoilsport. Stable farm incomes owing to bumper wheat production due to better irrigation facilities are expected to result in steady agrochemical consumption in the northern region. In the eastern region, healthy rabi and kharif output, government support through subsidies (10 bn was allocated to the eastern states in the Union budget 2013-14 to usher in green revolution), agricultural thrust via green manuring and hybrid rice are expected to result in higher farm incomes which in turn should boost the consumption of agrochemicals.
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
6% 13%
6% 13%
10% 13%
11%
12%
10% 13%
33%
32%
28%
Cotton 15%
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Vegetables 18% Pulses 20% FY09 Insecticides FY10 Herbicides FY11 FY12 Fungicides FY13 Others 55% 53% 45% 46% 49%
management, the products were launched in small regional pockets to assess their acceptance among the farmer community. With good off-take of the launched products, the management intends to introduce these across India. The management expects the new products to contribute significantly to Dhanukas revenues in four to five years. However, longterm success of the products is a key monitorable.
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
3000
10
workshops/seminars. With the incentives for Dhanuka Doctors deployed in a region linked to sales generated by Dhanuka in that region, it also helps in recovering costs associated with these activities.
120
100 80 60 40 20 UPL FY10 Rallis Bayer FY11 PI Ind FY12 Insecticides FY13 Dhanuka
11
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
200 100 150 80 60 40 50 20 UPL FY10 Rallis Bayer FY11 PI Ind FY12 Insecticides Dhanuka FY13 UPL FY10 Rallis Bayer FY11 PI Ind FY12 Insecticides Dhanuka FY13
100
12
Key Risks
Unpredictable weather and pest/disease occurrence
The performance of the agrochemical industry is highly dependent on weather conditions, which determines the occurrence of disease and pest infestations in the short term and on a regional basis. Normal monsoons are an important but not the only factor that drive demand for pesticides. Pest occurrence is also critical in driving sales volumes of agrochemical companies. Therefore, adverse weather conditions and inadequate pest occurrence can negatively impact the performance of agrochemical companies.
manufacturers ability to pass on higher raw material costs to farmers, consequently affecti ng the manufacturers margins.
Regulatory risks
The pesticide industry is highly regulated. Every product launch, patented or off-patent, has to go through field trials and comply with several requirements to keep the environment safe and toxic levels under acceptable limits. These processes are expensive and time consuming, and come with the uncertainty of facing a ban anytime. About 8% of Dhanukas revenues are derived from highly toxic (red triangle category) products, which have a high probability of facing a government ban. We do not view this as a significant risk as the companys product basket is highly diversified (over 80 products).
13
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Financial Outlook
Revenues estimated to grow at 16% CAGR over FY13-15; EBITDA margin likely to remain stable
We estimate revenues to grow at a two-year CAGR of 16% to 7.9 bn in FY15. We believe sales volumes will increase in FY14 on expectations of a normal monsoon. We expect Dhanuka to post 15% EBITDA margin on a sustainable basis on account of its focus on highmargin specialty molecules. The company has already introduced three specialty molecules during FY13 and three more product launches are on the anvil. We expect these will be highmargin products and, if successful, will result in margin expansion.
7,000
6,000
15.5%
1,000 800
15.0%
14.7% 14.3% 14.4%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
20%
600 15% 10% 5% 400 200 480 0% FY09 FY10 EBITDA FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E EBITDA margin (RHS) 586 777 795 865 1,036 1,186 13.5%
14.5%
2,000
1,000 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Revenue Growth (RHS) 3,369 4,085 4,928 5,293 5,869 6,904 7,903
14.0%
Adjusted PAT to grow at 11.4% CAGR over FY13-15; RoE expected to decline
Dhanukas adjusted PAT is expected to grow from 644 mn in FY13 to 800 mn in FY15 at a CAGR of 11.4%. We expect PAT margin to decline from 11.0% in FY13 to 10.1% in FY15 on account of diminishing income tax benefits at the companys Udhampur plant. This plant is entitled to 30% income tax holiday over FY14-18. Return on equity is also expected to decline from 27% in FY13 to 22.8% in FY15 due to contraction in PAT margin and reduction in debt.
14
Figure 11: RoE will decline from 27% in FY13 to 23% in FY15
(%)
12% 50 41.3 10% 8% 43.9 38.1 38.8 40.2
11.0%
10.0% 10.1%
700
600 500
40 38.1
6.9%
30.8
30.3
30.2
29.0
30 6%
29.5 27.0 23.9
400 300 4% 2% 100 FY09 FY10 PAT FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E PAT margin (RHS) 232 363 509 566 644 693 800 0%
20
22.8
200
10
80
0.4 0.3
20%
60 40 20 100 FY09 FY10 WC Days FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E 103 140 128 137 137 137 15% 10% 5% 0%
0.2 0.1
-
100 523
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E
597
602
460
330
443
FY15E
Total Debt
D/E (RHS)
WC as % of revenue (RHS)
15
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Management Overview
CRISIL's fundamental grading methodology includes a broad assessment of management quality, apart from other key factors such as industry and business prospects, and financial performance.
Highly experienced senior management; expect second generation of promoters to play a bigger role going forward
16
Corporate Governance
CRISILs fundamental grading methodology includes a broad assessment of corporate governance and management quality, apart from other key factors such as industry and business prospects, and financial performance. In this context, CRISIL Research analyses the shareholding structure, board composition, typical board processes, disclosure standards and related-party transactions. Any qualifications by regulators or auditors also serve as useful inputs while assessing a companys corporate governance. Corporate governance practices at Dhanuka meet the minimum levels, reflected in the constitution of its board, and by the presence of audit and other committees, which support the boards processes. Based on the disclosure levels, attendance record of independent directors and their level of engagement in the companys affairs, CRISIL Research believes that the company has good corporate governance standards.
Board processes have improved over a period of time, based on recommendations made by independent directors
17
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Valuation Grade
3/5
Our fair value for Dhanuka is 132 per share and the valuation grade is 3/5
We have used the DCF method to value Dhanuka and arrived at a fair value of 132 per share, implying P/E multiples of 9.6x and 8.3x FY14E and FY15E EPS respectively. The stock is currently trading at 133 per share. Consequently, we assign a valuation grade of 3/5, indicating that the market price is aligned.
WACC computation
FY14-21 Cost of equity Cost of debt (post tax) WACC Terminal growth rate 16.0% 8.1% 14.4% Terminal value 16.0% 8.1% 14.4% 4.00%
60
40 20 0
Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jul-13
Dhanuka 7x
4x 8x
6x 9x
18
Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jul-13
EV
4x
5x
6x
7x
P/E movement
(Times)
12
-10%
-20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% 4 2 0 10 8 6 -1 std dev +1 std dev
Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jul-13
Peer comparison
M.cap Companies Dhanuka Agritech** Insecticides India** Rallis India Bayer CropScience United Phosphorus PI Industries ( mn) 6,653 4,921 27,702 58,422 60,415 17,880 FY13 10.3 13.8 18.9 22.0 6.7 16.8 P/E (x) FY14E 9.6 11.6 17.0 19.4 7.7 12.1 FY15E 8.3 9.3 14.0 14.8 6.6 9.6 FY13 2.5 2.4 3.6 4.6 1.1 3.6 P/B (x) FY14E 2.1 2.0 3.7 3.8 1.3 2.9 FY15E 1.7 1.7 3.1 2.5 1.1 2.2 EV/EBITDA (x) FY13 8.0 9.6 10.6 14.0 4.5 10.9 FY14E 6.6 7.8 10.5 12.8 5.0 8.3 FY15E 5.7 6.4 8.8 10.1 4.4 6.8 FY13 27.0 18.8 20.3 42.7 17.6 25.0 RoE (%) FY14E 23.9 19.0 22.4 15.5 17.0 25.7 FY15E 22.8 19.9 23.5 15.6 17.3 25.9
Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jul-13
1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE
19
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Annexure: Financials
Income Statement
( m n) Operating Incom e EBITDA EBITDA Margin Depreciation EBIT Interest Operating PBT Other Income Exceptional inc/(exp) PBT Tax provision Minority interest PAT (Reported) Less: Exceptionals Adjusted PAT FY11 4,928 777 15.8% 49 728 65 663 8 1 672 162 510 1 509 FY12 5,293 795 15.0% 45 750 55 695 5 5 705 134 571 5 566 FY13E# 5,869 865 14.7% 45 820 35 785 23 808 163 644 644 FY14E 6,904 1,036 15.0% 57 979 51 928 14 942 249 693 693 FY15E 7,903 1,186 15.0% 69 1,117 44 1,073 8 1,081 281 800 800
Balance Sheet
( m n) Liabilities Equity Share Capital Reserves Minorities Net Worth Convertible Debt Other Debt Total Debt Deferred tax liability (net) Total liabilities Assets Net fixed assets Capital WIP Total fixed assets Investm ents Current assets Inventory Sundry debtors Loans and advances Cash & bank balance Marketable securities Total current assets Total current liabilities Net current assets Intangibles/Misc. expenditure Total assets FY11 100 1,598 1,698 602 602 28 2,328 381 8 389 1,412 1,377 362 50 3,201 1,265 1,937 2 2,328 FY12 100 2,046 2,146 460 460 26 2,632 388 145 532 0 1,386 1,512 283 85 156 3,421 1,325 2,096 3 2,632 FY13E# 100 2,528 2,628 330 330 28 2,986 639 639 82 1,599 1,507 321 54 3,481 1,219 2,262 3 2,986 FY14E 100 3,076 3,176 443 443 26 3,644 782 48 830 0 1,797 2,081 380 60 156 4,473 1,662 2,811 3 3,644 FY15E 100 3,730 3,830 313 313 26 4,169 912 48 961 0 2,057 2,382 435 79 156 5,108 1,903 3,205 3 4,169
Ratios
FY11 Grow th Operating income (%) EBITDA (%) Adj PAT (%) Adj EPS (%) Profitability EBITDA margin (%) Adj PAT Margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoIC (%) Valuations Price-earnings (x) Price-book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Dividend payout ratio (%) Dividend yield (%) B/S ratios Inventory days Creditors days Debtor days Working Capital Days Gross asset turnover (x) Net asset turnover (x) Sales/operating assets (x) Current ratio (x) Debt-equity (x) Net debt/equity (x) Interest coverage 20.6 32.6 40.2 28.6 FY12 7.4 2.3 11.3 11.3 FY13E# 10.9 8.8 13.8 13.8 FY14E 17.6 19.8 7.6 7.6 FY15E 14.5 14.5 15.4 15.4
Cash flow
( m n) Pre-tax profit Total tax paid Depreciation Working capital changes Net cash from operations Cash from investm ents Capital expenditure Investments and others Net cash from investm ents Cash from financing Equity raised/(repaid) Debt raised/(repaid) Dividend (incl. tax) Others (incl extraordinaries) Net cash from financing Change in cash position Closing cash FY11 671 (151) 49 (731) (161) (52) 0 (52) 339 5 (117) 1 229 16 50 FY12 700 (136) 45 29 639 (189) (156) (344) (0) (142) (128) 5 (265) 30 85 FY13E# 808 (161) 45 (352) 340 (152) 73 (78) (130) (163) (293) (31) 54 FY14E 942 (251) 57 (387) 361 (248) (73) (322) 113 (145) (33) 6 60 FY15E 1,081 (281) 69 (376) 493 (200) (200) (130) (145) (275) 18 79
135 101 93 140 8.1 12.9 12.7 2.5 0.4 0.3 11.2
122 95 102 128 8.2 13.8 11.5 2.6 0.2 0.1 13.7
Quarterly financials
( m n) Operating incom e Change (q-o-q) EBITDA Change (q-o-q) EBITDA m argin PAT Adj PAT Change (q-o-q) Adj PAT m argin Adj EPS Q4FY12 1,301 18% 228 80% 17.5% 182 182 132% 14.0% 3.6 Q1FY13 1,081 -17% 158 -31% 14.6% 112 112 -38% 10.4% 2.2 Q2FY13 2,063 91% 306 94% 14.8% 237 237 112% 11.5% 4.7 Q3FY13 1,397 -32% 158 -48% 11.3% 117 117 -51% 8.4% 2.3 Q4FY13 1,328 -5% 243 54% 18.3% 179 179 53% 13.5% 3.6
Per share
Adj EPS () CEPS Book value Dividend () Actual o/s shares (mn) FY11 10.2 11.2 33.9 2.0 50.0 FY12 11.3 12.2 42.9 2.2 50.0 FY13E# 12.9 13.8 52.5 2.8 50.0 FY14E 13.9 15.0 63.5 2.5 50.0 FY15E 16.0 17.4 76.6 2.5 50.0
Note: #- based on abridged financials FY13 financials are not strictly comparable with that of the previous years due to the new format of disclosure under Schedule VI of the Companies Act Source: CRISIL Research
20
Focus Charts
Revenue and growth trend
( mn)
9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 21.3% 36.1% 40% 35% 30%
20.6% 5,000
4,000 10.9% 7.4% 2,000 17.6% 14.5%
25% 800
20% 600 15% 10% 5% 5,869 FY13 6,904 FY14E 7,903 0% FY09 FY10 EBITDA FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E EBITDA margin (RHS) FY15E 400 14.4%
14.3%
14.5%
3,000
14.0% 200 480 586 777 795 865 1,036 1,186 13.5%
1,000
-
3,369 FY09
4,085 FY10
4,928 FY11
5,293 FY12
Revenue
Growth (RHS)
8.9%
700 600 6.9%
40 38.1
30.8
30.3
30.2
29.0
500
6% 400
30
29.5 27.0 23.9
20
4%
2%
300
200
22.8
10
100
-
232 FY09
509 FY11
566 FY12
644 FY13
693 FY14E
800 0% FY15E
450 400
350
300
250
200
150
100
0.2 0.1
-
50
0
100 523
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E
Feb-08
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-09
Feb-13
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-12
Oct-12
Oct-07
Oct-11
FY15E
Total Debt
D/E (RHS)
Dhanuka
NIFTY
Jun-13
Jun-10
597
602
460
330
443
21
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Analytical Contacts
Sandeep Sabharwal Prasad Koparkar Binaifer Jehani Manoj Mohta Sudhir Nair Mohit Modi Jiju Vidyadharan Ajay D'Souza Ajay Srinivasan Rahul Prithiani Senior Director, Capital Market Senior Director, Industry & Customised Research Director, Customised Research Director, Customised Research Director, Customised Research Director, Equity Research Director, Funds & Fixed Income Research Director, Industry Research Director, Industry Research Director, Industry Research +91 22 4097 8052 +91 22 3342 3137 +91 22 3342 4091 +91 22 3342 3554 +91 22 3342 3526 +91 22 4254 2860 +91 22 3342 8091 +91 22 3342 3567 +91 22 3342 3530 +91 22 3342 3574 sandeep.sabharwal@crisil.com prasad.koparkar@crisil.com binaifer.jehani@crisil.com manoj.mohta@crisil.com sudhir.nair@crisil.com mohit.modi@crisil.com jiju.vidyadharan@crisil.com ajay.dsouza@crisil.com ajay.srinivasan@crisil.com rahul.prithiani@crisil.com
Business Development
Hani Jalan Prosenjit Ghosh Director, Capital Market Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 3077 +91 22 3342 8008 hani.jalan@crisil.com prosenjit.ghosh@crisil.com
CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch
Our Office
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CRISIL Limited CRISIL House, Central Avenue, Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai 400076. India Phone: +91 22 3342 3000 | Fax: +91 22 3342 8088 www.crisil.com
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