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recent weeks have shown that their heads are still in the game and they are working hard to respond in a crisis. Already working intense schedules, the treasury professionals weve spoken with have been burning their candles at both ends, yet they have kept their humor (judging from the reaction to the mock September madness bracket that has been making the rounds, see p. 12). THe Big issues iN focus What follows are highlights from recent discussions with treasury professionals (and bankers) in our network: n Hope for corporate funding. While the situation will worsen and corporate sources of funding, in particular short-term CP and asset-backed sources, are at risk, there is still hope that the crisis of confidence that has caused fixed-income investors to stay away from financial institution paper will not spread in the same way to the nonfinancial sector. While investors with cash, and remember there is still a lot of capital out there, have a flight-to-quality instinct like everyone, not everyone (see below) is going to get all their funds into Treasurys or money market funds made up purely of them (see p. 11). Thus, some may look to diversify into corporate paper. Of course, the front end of liquidity needs to come back before many of the shifts can take place. Still, without liquidity to grease the wheels
Are we comfortable with our insurers? Are we communicating enough with the Board
September ushered in new extremes to the subprime-inspired financial crisis and treasurers must stay prepared for unprecedented surprises. page 1
As the US government steps into so many inactive markets, what will it do to fair value? page 2
Anticipated Exposures
Oversight committees, covenant reminders and dangers in shortselling bans. page 4
K e Y Q uestio N s of t H e D aY
and senior management? Do we need an oversight committee? What communication plan do we have for external analysts, particularly from rating agencies, in response to events? Have we examined the fair value accounting impact on assets and hedges with non-performance risk in preparation for year-end? What are our upside opportunities?
continued on page 3
Addressing key questions concerning putting excess cash into money market funds. page 11
With renewed appreciation for their transaction services business, more cash banks plan to step up investment in it. page 14
EDITORs NOTEs
Founding Editor & Publisher Joseph Neu Contributing Editors Anne Friberg, CTP Ted Howard Bryan Richardson, CTP Sandra Shen Advisory Board Andy Nash SVP, Treasurer Ahold Finance Group Mark Rawlins Assistant Treasurer Anheuser-Busch Companies James Haddad VP-Corporate Finance Cadence Design Systems Chris Growney Principal, Director of Sales & Marketing Clearwater Analytics Susan Stalnecker VP Finance, Treasurer E.I. DuPont Co. Peter Marshall Partner, Global Treasury Advisory Services Ernst & Young LLP David Rusate Deputy Treasurer General Electric Company Martin Trueb Senior VP & Treasurer Hasbro, Inc. David Wagstaff Managing Director, US Technology Banking HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. Arto Sirvio Head of Treasury, Americas Nokia Peter Connors Partner Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP Robert Vettoretti Director, Treasury and Financial Management Services PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Adam Frieman Principal Probitas Partners Doug Gerstle Assistant Treasurer Procter & Gamble Susan A. Hillman Partner Treasury Alliance Group LLC Michael Collins Managing Director Wachovia Securities Academic Advisors Gunter Dufey University of Michigan Donald Lessard Massachusetts Institute of Technology Richard Levich New York University The company and organizational affiliations listed above are for identification purposes only. Advisors to International Treasurer are not responsible for the information and opinions that appear in this or related publications and web sites. Responsibility is solely that of the publisher. ISSN:1075-5691 Vol. 15, No. 8 2008 The NeuGroup, Inc. 135 Katonah Avenue Katonah, NY 10536 (914) 232-4068 Fax (914) 992-8809 backoffice@intltreasurer.com www.intltreasurer.com
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when measuring fair value. The concept of a fair value measurement assumes an orderly transaction between market participants, the statement continued. An orderly transaction is one that involves market participants that are willing to transact and allows for adequate exposure to the market [emphasis added]. Given all that is happening, the SEC might want to just call all transactions too disorderly for 157, at least for a while. The FASB wont give in. It may have to, because the FASB is slow to see the writing on the wall. Having promised further clarification, on October 3, the FASB staff released proposed guidance FSP FAS 157-d (Determining Fair Value of a Financial Asset in a Market That is Not Active) for comment (until October 9). In an example depicting how to fair value a CDO in a market that has become inactive (disorderly), the proposed amendment sort of makes clear that judgments are OK in determining fair value. And, one way to read it is that management can make its best guess using all available information (internal models, recent market inputs, broker quotes, etc.), so long as it shows its assumptions. For many, what this will mean in practice is that fair value is whatever regulators or the government says it is. Indeed, more than a few bankers are already expressing the idea that, going forward, fair value means you mark down the asset any way you want so long as regulators dont object. But at least the FASB can take comfort in the fact that such valuations can still be shoehorned into their FAS 157 principles. For non-financial corporates, the situation may not yet be so arbitrary, but if auditors, analysts or rating agencies come after, say, the holdings of distressed agency paper in your excess cash portfolio, the push-back should be the same: this value is our fair guess given this, that and the other thing; plus, it is consistent with what bank regulators are allowing at my bank. Update on FAS 133: While the FASB is issuing advisories refuting reports that FAS 133-R has been scrapped, it is hard to see how it can apply fair value any further to hedge-, in particular swap-accounting, with all the noise about its adverse impact on credit markets.
TVA
September Madness, continued from page 1
money cannot move. Thus, treasurers should take a long hard look at how much they are relying on CP-funding, what they need, and if they need X, they should lower expectations to Y and be prepared to make up the difference. The same holds with other debt issuances, including asset-backed issuances and convertibles. AB issues should be structured extremely conservatively and with terms tailored to lead investors. Plus, with so many arb investors being sidelined by curbs on short-selling and their own liquidity constraints, the uptake on convertibles wont be there. n CP back-stops and new credit pricing. While CP backup lines are likely to be there so long as they are with well-capitalized institutions, going forward most providers will re-price them severely. Banks have realized that this steady business, similar to other types of mono-line insurance, represents a substantial concentration of risk. CP back-stops are probably just the tip of the iceberg with regard to banks reconsidering how they price credit. It may just take a few weeks or months before credit bankers whose natural instinct is to say yes, will be forced to say no to even their best customers. And when the CP-backups stop, or get correctly priced, the CP market wont be the same. Indeed, bankers would like to set expectations now for draw rates derived from CDS spreads. n New credit line commitments hard to find. Several treasurers we have spoken with noted that they are looking for additional credit line commitments (some to replace Lehman) or in expectation of a reduction in commitment from BofA/Merrill. Unfortunately, these treasurers report, there is not much appetite out there at the moment. The one exception mentioned seems to be Japanese banks, which have gone
from some of the worlds worst credit providers to the worlds best in just over a year. In addition to new commitments, treasurers are also looking to reallocate credit commitments based on counterparty concerns, either their own or their credit insurers. Problems with credit commitments should become an ongoing theme as banks are forced by market conditions, or regulation, to stop treating their balance sheets as a loss leader. Whether banks are used as contingent capital or as part of a draw-down, term-out approach to funding, the cost is going to go up. n Watch the rating matrix. Once the funding/liquidity questions are answered, the most important activity for treasurers is monitoring counterparty risk. Almost everyone is talking about their own internal ratings grids, or dashboards (see example on p. 15). These are used to monitor counterparty risk using some combination of changes in CDS spreads, expected default frequency, changes in market cap, changes in rating agency rating, rating outlooks, VAR changes, change in fair/notional value and a variety of other inputs. Every firm seems to be using one with various levels of sophistication. Treasurers are watching them religiously to track counterparties on everything from FX trades to derivative overlays on their pension portfolio. Another matrix of concern is the web of bank affiliates that an MNC deals with around the world. One treasurer we spoke with noted concern about getting explicit parental guarantees from banks for their overseas affiliates. A few noted having provisions already in place in their ISDA agreements to cover this. Their bank counterparties, meanwhile, are clearly also monitoring counterparty risk ever more closely. Banks have added contingency risk, since in the current
As a further sign that firms are stepping up efforts to reduce rating agency fees (see IT, September 2008), we have seen treasurers and their investment managers query each other about their investment policy positions on high-quality paper that is rated by just two of the major agencies (i.e., Moodys and Fitch, but not S&P). Most said they would. Would you invest in me if . . . ? Thus has begun a whole series of new what-if questions that treasurers are asking of each other and their investors to determine how relevant ratings have remained in the current environment. Notably, in responses to the two-of-three rating question several treasurers noted that their answer was at least partly driven by their increasing reliance on Expected Default Frequency and Credit Default Swap indicators, as opposed to ratings. How long before investment policies go from two of three major rating services being required, to none?
continued on page 12
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aNTICIPaTED EXPOsUREs
Risk management
document is helpful. The document should address key components of the committees purpose, authority and accountability. As an example, the Ford Foundations charter for its investment committee covers three basic categories: Mission Statement (what their broad purpose is), Organization (who and how they operate) and Roles and Responsibilities (the details of their duties). n Get the right people. Common participants for committees of this nature can include the treasurer, CFO, controller, head of tax, and head of internal audit. We have an investment committee consisting of CFO, treasurer, controller, and head of tax. The committee reviews the investment portfolio policy only and provides guidance, noted one assistant treasurer of a large MNC. n Require regular meetings. A requirement to meet at established intervals will ensure the responsibility does not get lost in the busy schedules of the committee members. We are required to meet at least quarterly but in practice it is usually 2-to-3 times per quarter, stated another assistant treasurer from a global technology company. n Consider specialized committees and schedule according to their needs. Different areas of risk may need to be addressed in a specialized way and on a different schedule. They may also need to adjust to changing dynamics in the marketplace. A senior treasury official of one large technology firm related: We have a credit committee that meets monthly to discuss investment credit lines with the treasurer. We also have a formal hedging committee that meets quarterly comprised of the CFO, the treasurer and an assistant treasurer, to discuss hedging policies/strategies and review any current hedging program in place. n Or, consider an all-in-one committee. With the right people, knowledge and commitment, a single committee covering all risks may be an appropriate approach. There is also benefit to looking at risk holistically rather than in silos. One assistant treasurer commented: Our company has an executive risk management and capital committee comprised of senior finance and operations
executives that meets at least quarterly. The committee regularly reviews investment, FX, insurance, and other financial risks as well as certain capital spending proposals. With investment fraud and failure in the news almost daily, there should be comfort in knowing that a group of seasoned finance professionals are collectively monitoring the risks for the company. Theres wisdom in numbers.
Cash & working capital
aNTICIPaTED EXPOsUREs
agreement where either they can find a technical default if they want to or even without a technical default they could do things like change credit limits and things like that. Mr. Wrobel added that these provisions have been built into loan agreements for years but have rarely been used. But these are different times now so it is best that corporations play by the book. StaYiNg straigHt Most companies intend to play by the book when it comes to tapping their credit lines; however, most treasurers review their agreements only about once a year. Whats worse, according to Jim Simpson, managing partner with Corporate Finance Solutions, is that many firms do not have a review process. This was confirmed by the survey he conducted with Bruce Lynn of the Financial Executive Consulting Group, where about 40 percent of 150 companies polled said there was no formal review process to manage debt covenants, whether financial or non-financial. Messrs. Lynn and Simpson also surveyed banks, asking them what they do with firms that come to them revealing theyve breached an agreement. Many say that if you come in and surprise us with a breach, well charge you fees, well increase your spread and some say they may even pull the line, according to Mr. Simpson. So in the current environment it is critical to have agreements studied and buttoned up. For those companies that have a good communication with their bank and understand their debt agreements really well, banks are more than willing to work with you, Mr. Simpson said. Dont go to the banks after the fact and say Oops! because you may pay. Give it Time Messrs. Lynn and Simpson also suggest that companies that know they need to draw on their lines alert the bank ahead of time. Gone are the days where you call the bank and get the funds the same day. The big question is Will the bank have the money when [a company] wants it, Mr. Simpson said. The problem could be that when a bank goes out to its syndicate banks to satisfy a $1bn loan, and it might be the case in this environment where only half of them come up with the money. And if they cant meet your drawdown request, theres nothing you can really do, Mr. Simpson said. Anecdotally Im hearing of banks who are being asked if they can get the money in three days but are telling customers they can get it to them in a week and a half. RaiNY daY fuNd A good idea? Whether or not more companies will draw on funds from their relationship banks just to have it remains to be seen. But given the current crisis and widening spreads, it probably doesnt make sense. There are a number of issues doing this, particularly the negative cost of carry, said Mr. Simpson. Hypothetically, youre borrowing from the bank at maybe 5 percent and what are you going to do with it? Youre going to invest it. But where do you go to invest? In the current environment, the best a company may do is 2 percent, Mr. Simpson added. So its costing you 3 percent to hold that cash. This strategy might make sense in certain situations -- perhaps if youre a net borrower trying to cover payroll, etc. But it is not a good idea if you think the company might face going out of business. The bank can still try to get its money back.
Capital markets
Chinese market regulators chose to announce the start of a trial to test margin trading and short-selling of shares amidst moves by the US and the UK to shut shorts down. In its announcement, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) made no reference to its countertrend timing, but did note it as a move to introduce new vitality into its financial markets, the FT reported. In the works since 2006, the timing of the trial is likely more a political shot across the bow. The short-selling, margin-trading experiment in China will be carefully controlled, and only made available with carefully selected brokerages, so shortselling hedge funds are not likely to all pick up and move to China soon. Still, with talk of the global financial epicenter starting to move from New York and London, China is planting another seed for people to start thinking more about the relative position of capital markets in China. Where to the shorts, there to the market.
Counterparty risk
espite hedge funds pleas to end the short-selling ban, the SEC has only expanded its temporary curbs. At press time, the ban was covering close to 1,000 stocks, 15 percent of total US listings, ranging from manufacturers and information technology firms such as Ford and IBM. Other market regulators around the world have followed suit, but have so far limited their restrictions more to financial stocks. Running counter to this trend is China. As the Financial Times reported,
We would like to thank the participants at the Fall 2008 Meeting of the FX Managers Peer Group 2 for their open dialogue and relevant contributions to our discussions. Your active involvement continues to make the FXMPG2 a highly valued contributor to our network of forums for peer knowledge exchange. Thank you!
The FXMPG2 is a NeuGroup meeting alternative.SM
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offshore cash without tainting the deferral. 3) Watch out for accounting challenges on interco loans. An interesting issue that one member firm ran into in conjunction with a merger was the different accounting views the two merging firms had on interco funding in foreign currencies. If the loans are characterized as long-term, according to the firms treasurer, you dont have to hedge the FX risk on the cash flows. It is OK to make payments, but you want the [principal] amounts to look large so they dont look like they can be paid off in a year or two. But the auditors of the company his company merged with said that these were short-term loans, he noted. So you may have to sell auditors on the idea that they are long-term. Also, external debt can offset the interco loan if the affiliate receiving the loan is not profitable and cannot repay the loan (if characterized as long-term). 4) Bank-line pricing OK. Several members reported being pleased with pricing on recent credit facility negotiations with banks (though most of those pleased were not renegotiating after February). For example, at one firm, where the major funding issue is bank lines to help cover compensation, treasury was able to increase the credit facility at pricing levels similar to three years ago and we are happy with that, the treasurer noted.
practically bankrupt
T30 member
Facilitated by
With more cash being thrown off from offshore operations, MNC liquidity has also become more vulnerable to changes in tax rules and interpretations thereof. While this is another reason for tax and treasury coordination, members stressed that it is also a reason to enter into dialogue with tax authorities in key markets so that they know what might be coming and can figure out how to address the changes. Canada, for example, has fundamental tax changes every few years and big changes are coming this year. China is also on many radar screens. Dialogue can be extended to advanced negotiation. For example: A key area of concern for many members is with transfer pricing, particularly that concerning special incentives US firms have with China, which the IRS is investigating. Being proactive is critical. One member firm participates along with 30-plus companies in a compliance assurance program (CAP), whereby the IRS audits the tax books in real time and signs off on them.
One session at the meeting discussed trends in ERM and FX portals. The key ERM theme was customization: how firms choose to integrate risk to be managed under an ERM framework should be determined by what best fits the culture of the company, not some standardized, best-practice framework that is onesize-fits-all. The same can be said for who leads it. For example, of the members at the meeting with ERM programs, half said it was being led by internal audit and half by treasury. For the FX portals discussion, practitioners revealed that they are looking beyond FXall. The reason behind this trend is that, perhaps in part as the novelty of electronic trading and STP have worn off, the focus has shifted to value for money, or purely cost. The two leading alternatives on the FX side appear to be 360T and Bloomberg.
KeY TakeawaYs 1) Boards wake up to investment portfolio in a crisis. One of the clear lessons from the problems in fixed income securities brought on by the mortgage crisis, according to the firm's treasurer, is that Boards will suddenly start to take an interest in the risk in corpoKeY TakeawaYs rate cash portfolios, and their main focus will 1) Note the pressure be seeking to avoid headline risk. While on smaller suppliers treasury can take numerous steps to educate and buyers. As bad as the Board on its investment policy and the it is for T30 members, mandates it seeks to balance yield enhancethey should fully conment with risk/earnings volatility, much of sider the impact of this will go out the window in a crisis, so it is actions to squeeze their balance sheets on best to err on the side of risk mitigation. suppliers and buyers, 2) Having a technical person on the particularly small- and investment management team who undermiddle-market enterstands this is critical. The treasurer credits prises (SMEs). his investment manager for being experi2) Take credit risk enced enough to be on top of news that into account across the affected key investments in the portfolio and size spectrum. While SMEs are hit the hard- get the companys money out before they were hurt. Being a good technical manager est, credit risk should also means he understood the corporate be a consideration across the spectrum of investment dynamics, including Board sensisuppliers. tivity to headline risk. For example, the com3) Banking partnerpany had in its portfolio significant exposure ships under accountto equity-linked paper that went from AAA ing scrutiny. The to single-B in three days. The dynamics of viability of bank facthe waterfall meant that some tranches were toring/inverse factoronly getting 40 cents on the dollar if sold ing-related programs immediately. While on a hold-to-maturity in the US have come into question and may perspective, the company's positions were
end up back on the balance sheet as debt.
Given the liquidity and funding concerns of the member firms, and the economic pressures being felt on their suppliers, it stands to reason that more treasuries should consider reviewing their firms supply-chain finance initiatives.
To LearN More
Contact: Joseph Neu 914-232-4069 jneu@neugroup.com or Sandra Shen 203-353-1151 sshen@neugroup.com
hoard cash. Treasurers will face major questions if they sit around and do nothing for four years and watch 40 percent of their balance sheet become cash, this member noted. NeXt MeetiNg
The following topics have been suggested, so far, for the next T30 meeting: Credit markets: where to we go from here? M&A on their effect on treasury Treasury benchmarking: whats world class.
INvEsTmENT MaNagEmENT
Risk management by Clearwater (see IT, September 2008) is very attractive but it only includes two funds reporting once or twice per month. n Are bank funds or independent funds better in a crisis? When investment managers consider the relationship approach to being careful they say they get much better service from independent funds. This may have something to do with the way they are compensated: they are motivated by the portfolio results and not just new asset growth. However, some treasury investment managers believe that there is more counterparty comfort in going with bank-owned funds, particularly if they favor institutions showing the lowest CDS spreads or deemed too big to fail: e.g., Citi, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan. Burned by the lack of bank support in auction-rate securities auctions, however, some fear a similar support failure could also result should banks be called upon to support the NAV of their money market funds as they grow larger. n Will settlement risk concerns curb portal use? As rate shopping has grown less important, the convenience of MMF portals has given way to concerns about settlement risks as money funds close and investors seek redemptions. With a portal there is one more layer between you and the fund. Another disadvantage to portals is the lack of daylight overdrafts, thus an investor needs to get out of one fund and collect his money before purchasing another fund. n Where to go for safety and returns? With US Treasurys paying almost nothing, money fund investors are looking at government-backed agencies or abandoning paper from the financial sector altogether. One option is corporate paper, in particular the purer industrials. But the opportunities are limited due to the lack of qualified issuances, particularly in shorter durations. For instance: Caterpillar recently issued for 3-5 years at 300 bps over T-bills, but what cash investors want are terms under 360 days. If you can find industrial paper inside a year, its a pretty safe bet, noted one treasury pro. Hey, if every cash rich corporate would invest in another less fortunate ones short-term paper, then maybe the corporate sector could keep itself going until the banks start lending again.
n
TVA
September Madness, continued from page 3
Credit risk can be tracked in a variety of ways (see below): 1) Create a betting pool. Borrow from a sports book (left; and perhaps assign probabilities from the bets made) 2) Create a dashboard. The sample from Royal Dutch Shell (right) combines: Credit Default Swap pricing, used to reflect current risk perceptions in the market. Many treasurers use daily quotes (or calculate default probabilities) to compare relative risks. A Statistical Approach including current market value of company assets. Moodys KMV predictive modeling, for example, includes asset volatilities, equity price and credit data history. Enhanced Ratings: Current ratings are still a valid source of credit assessment, however, they are slow to change; thus ratings outlooks should be part of the risk picture.
Two Takes
illiquid market, trades are more likely to have turned against clients. n Staying with AIG. Many treasurers noted that they have significant insurance coverage with AIG. All those we spoke to about this said they were planning to stick with AIG for now. One company renewing recently noted that it asked for and received a ratings trigger that allows it to replace AIG without penalty, however. There were also some questions being asked about New York allowing asset shifts to the holding company, which AIG made before the government bailout and the scrutiny surrounding this. Given the D&O coverage AIG provides, treasurers who negotiate it sounded confident that key concerns are likely to be assuaged at the Board level as their Board members communicate with those at AIG. n Non-performance risk and other fair value accounting a looming nightmare. Given the ongoing accumulation of non-performance risk, and confusion surrounding the (a)symmetry in the recognition of a bank counterpartys nonperformance risk versus the corporates own, treasurers are not looking forward to accounting in line with FAS 157 at year end. The list of fair value accounting concerns does not end there.
They extend from the FX hedging portfolio, to impaired assets in the investment portfolio, and on to the derivative overlays used to manage pension funds. Treasurers at non-bank firms will likely be joining their bank treasury peers in calling for relief from FAS 157 (see p. 2). n Offshore cash questions. In a carryover from peer group meetings the NeuGroup conducted in the spring (see IT, September 2008 and p. 7), treasurers have reported continuing questions from rating agencies concerning offshore cash and more serious discussions with senior management and Boards regarding repatriation. Near-term expectations for an HIA 2.0 have lowered, if anything; though the recent IRS relaxation of rules on borrowing from offshore affiliates (from a 30- to 60-day window) is encouraging. n Communicate, communicate, communicate. Internal communications are on the rise, becoming more frequent and more detailed, according to treasurers. This is in line with crisis management 101: the more communication the better. One treasurer we spoke with noted that the latest monthly report on treasury activities to the Board was the longest it has ever been. Other senior treasury professionals noted
T W O TA K E S O N C O U N T E R PA R T Y R I S K M O N I T O R I N G
SEPTEMBER MADNESS
Goldman Sachs / Berkshire Hathaway Wachovia / Citigroup Merrill Lynch (bye) Merrill Lynch / Bank of America Washington Mutual / JP Morgan Chase The Bailout Fund / The U.S. Congress Barack Obama / John McCain Washington Mutual / PNC Mortgage JP Morgan Chase / Bear Stearns The Queen of England / Northern Rock HBOS / Lloyds Morgan Stanley / Mitsubishi Barclays Lehman Brothers / Barklays
Courtesy of Spumonti
Bank of America
JP Morgan Chase
Countrywide / Bank of America The U.S. Federal Reserve / AIG Wells Fargo (bye)
TVA
making senior executive or Board-level reports on the day of each new crisis and issuing followups three days after. ERM risk committees were also cited as a communication clearinghouse that has proven useful. More firms are thus considering oversight committees of some kind to provide internal governance (see p. 4) and coordination of compliance with new and existing policies and procedures in response to the crisis. TVA , CYA, or SOL Effective communication, working hard to answer the right questions and staying in good spirits will only carry treasurers so far, however. Arguably the value added by treasury will never be higher for most firms than it is right now. And, it is moments like these that separates: 1) The TVA treasurers who have added value to their firms by working with the CFO to be in a position to weather a perfect financial storm like this one; 2) The lucky CYA treasurers that can cover their backsides fast enough to stay in their jobs; and then there are 3) The SOL treasurers who just will be shown door (along with the CFO) once senior management and shareholders realize that they positioned the firm poorly from a capital structure and liquidity standpoint. Our hope is that most of the treasury practitioners reading this, and certainly the ones that participate in The NeuGroups peer network fit into the TVA category. But, not all treasurers will. Perhaps what is terrifying capital markets bankers is the belief that the capital structure problems that brought down certain banks, including too much reliance on short-term funding to cover leveraged asset positions, will start taking down non-bank corporates, starting with those with large finance companies. As one market observer noted, this situation is going to shed a light on weak treasury managers and their CFOs. Unfortunately, there are many of them that have shown themselves to have a relatively unsophisticated understanding of financial structures and have put their companies in an extremely compromising position. As some of the compromised get caught out, outside of the financial sector, this will put even more pressure on all treasurers to get ahead of the curve by communicating convincingly that they are not in a similar position to peers in trouble. Capital (most especially cash) will help. Libor iN TraNsFer PriciNg
Transfer pricing is of growing concern to treasury (IT, August 2008), and LIBOR volatility and spreads over Fed rates are wreaking havoc on MNC efforts to set revenue-neutral transfer pricing on interco loans. In a session at the recent EuroFinance, Philippe Vyncke, a partner in PWCs Belgian tax consultancy noted that firms can: 1) Play it safe and stick with the policy document rate, e.g., the 1-month local-currency LIBOR, no matter its gyrations; or 2) State that the rates are temporarily irrational, and use a reasonable rate to be set by treasury, e.g., the prior months 30-day average rate. The latter approach will invite the ire of auditors and taxmen, so take extreme care to document the approach and why a change has been made.
T W O TA K E S O N C O U N T E R PA R T Y R I S K M O N I T O R I N G
C O U N T E R PA R T Y R I S K D A S H B O A R D
FX Deals - Period to Maturity 0 to 6mth Barclays Bank BNP Paribas Citibank Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs International Merrill Lynch (B of A) Morgan Stanley Standard Chartered Bank UBS AG Acceptable risk Cautionary risk Higher risk 7 to 12mth 13 to 24mth 15 to 36mth 37 to 48mth 49 to 60mth 60mth + FX Total Invest 0 to 6mth Invest Total Grand Total Moodys Rating Current Aa1 *Aa1 Aa3 *Aa2 Aa2 Aa1 Outlook negative stable negative stable stable stable Alert R G R G G G KMV: Expected Default Frequency 1 Year CDS Spread (bps) 160.7 52.1 418.9 42.7 107.6 650
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Recent comments indicate investment in these transaction (cash) services at the following banks: Citi: Focused on improving and strengthening infrastructure, continuing to innovate, and broadening the distribution footprint. Specifics includes TreasuryVision, digital signatures technology and BankingVision (a banking platform to be launched in 2009). Citi Global Transaction Services has more than a $1 billion annual budget. JP Morgan: Recently announced a $1bn plus investment program aimed at the launch of single global treasury platform, expansion of payments offering, financial supply chain, prepaid card expansion, and extension of its online A/R offering. Deutsche Bank: Investing in financial supply chain, including trade and supply chain finance, launched FX4Cash (a cross-border payments and foreign exchange solution) and just announced launch of new p-card business. Budget continues to increase in line with growth expectations. HSBC: Investing in payments infrastructure around SEPA and other regulatory developments, integrated payables and receivables platform (Lionheart), launching an integrated supplychain platform. Recently approved largest budget increase in many years for transaction banking unit. SEB: Investing in liquidity management, cash visibility, customer service platform, and payments infrastructure. SEB also partners with external IT providers to bring new technology to clients, alongside internal investment.
Of course, the renewed interest in transaction services is not driven solely by banks. As David Aldred, managing director, co-head of corporate sales EMEA at JP Morgan noted: Clients have stressed the importance of improving their supply chain in order to access trapped cash, and they are looking for us to help them mobilize cash so they can ultimately make investment decisions around that cash. Never has it been more important for corporates to have that visibility over cash. Realities tHat staNd iN tHe waY While milking more from the transaction services annuity stream at a time when customer demand for it is high sounds great in theory, there are several realities that stand in the way. n Not all banks have capabilities that they can instantly scale up. Because many transaction banking units faced a struggle to compete for internal resources, these resource-intensive units often received only the investment that was absolutely necessary and often required for core infrastructure and compliance needs. Transaction banking has a strong history of annuity earnings, but it requires heavy technology spend which restricts access to a limited number of providers. In addition, there is a limited base pool of expertise in the field, which can limit growth. Thus, more banks will be investing to catch-up to their (remaining) competitors than investing to keep their lead. Any bank that wants to compete must invest in this space, corporates expect us to. We are working with corporates to try and deliver value and the question is what banks will be able to continue to do that as the market continues to evolve and deal with the current situation. David Aldred, Managing Director, co-head of corporate sales EMEA at JP Morgan. Ability and will are two different things. The challenge most of the transaction services organizations within banks face is getting the investment money needed to stay competitive, noted SEBs Mr. Zingmark. To make the necessary investment in transaction banking, he explained requires a longer-term perspective: Over a three
With other banks investing to step up their global transaction banking platforms, will Citi, which has traditionally been able to rely on its global transactions banking footprint, invest to maintain its coverage lead? Senior management is committed to this business as part of the universal bank model, noted Michael Guralnick, global head of sales for Citis Treasury and Trade Solutions Unit. They see Global Transaction Services as an investment destination within the company, and understand that we must continue to innovate even in this challenging time. According to a recent survey by Treasury Strategies (highlighted in the September issue of the UK publication FX&MM), while Citi is among the top three transaction banks used by large corporates in the US, Asia and Europe, it is only number 1 in Asia (and tied; see below). If accurate, this survey would suggest more investment in GTS is a good idea. Rank Asia 1 Citi 1 Standard Chartered 1 Maybank 4 HSBC Europe 1 RBS 2 Deutsche Bank 3 Citi US 1 Bank of America 2 JPMorgan Chase 3 BoNY Mellon 3 Citi 86 62 42 42 29 28 25 28 28 28 22 Provider %*
* Percentage of large corporates (with turnover greater than USD5bn); 25 percent of the 970 survey respondents. Source: Treasury Strategies