CHAPTER 24

CHARACTERISTICS
Author: H. L. Willis A T&D system exists to deliver power to electric consumers in response to their demand for electric energy. This demand for electricity, in the form of appliances, lighting devices, and equipment that use electric power, creates electric load, the electrical burden that the T&D system must satisfy. In a de-regulated power industry, quality of service - basically quality in meeting the customers needs - is paramount. Quality begins with a detailed understanding of the customers demand requirements, and includes the design of a system to meet those needs. This chapter discusses electric load and presents several important elements of its behavior that bear on T&D system engineering aimed at satisfying those requirements as economically as possible. I. ELECTRICAL 1. Consumers Purchase Electricity LOADS for End Use Application

OF DISTRIBUTION

LOADS

2. Power Systems Exist to Satisfy Customers,

Not Loads

Electricity is always purchased by the consumer as an intermediate step towards some final, non-electrical product. No one wants electric energy itself, they want the products it can provide: a cool home in summer, a warm one in winter, hot water on demand, cold beverages in the refrigerator, and 48 inches of dazzling color with stereo commentary during Monday-night football. Different types of consumers purchase electricity for different reasons, and have different requirements for the amount and quality of the power they buy, but all purchase electricity as a way to provide the endproducts they want. These various products are called enduses, and they span a wide range, as shown in Table 1.
TABLE ICUSTOMER CLASSES ANDEND-USE CATEGORIES

The traditional manner of representing customer requirements for power system engineering has been as aggregate electric loads assigned to nodes for electrical design. For example, customer needs in an area of a city may be estimated as having a maximum of 45 MW. That value is then assigned to a particular bus in engineering studies aimed at assuring that the required level of power delivery can be provided by the system. Traditionally, the engineering methods used in those design studies have been system-based: performance and criteria are evaluated against the power system itself, not against the Equipment loading limits, singlecustomers needs. contingency backup criteria, and voltage drop/power factor guidelines defined on the distribution system and even at the customer meter point, all view electrical performance from the and do not directly address customer system perspective, needs. Such engineering methods, while necessary to tailor many aspects of T&D design, are not sufficient to completely address the maximization of customer value. Power systems Understanding the exist to satisfy customers, not loads. specific needs of the customers how much quality they require in power delivery as well as the quantity of power they need can improve the value provided by the power system. The two Qs quantity and quality both need to be considered in designing and operating a power system to provide maximum customer value.
A: System Peak - 3,492 MW B: Residential - 4.2 kW/customer

Some end-uses are satisfied only by electric power (televisions, computers). In others, electricity dominates in usage over other alternatives (there are gasoline-powered refrigerators, and natural gas can be used for lighting). But for many end-uses, such as water heating, home heating, cooking, and clothes drying in the residential sector, and pulp heating and tank pressurization in the industrial sector, electricity is but one of several possible, competing energy sources.

Fig. lLeft: peak electric demand for a power system in the southern United States, broken out by customer class. Right: within the residential class, which accounts for 58% of the system peak, per capita usage at peak conditions falls into the end-use categories as shown.

End-use analysis of electric load the study of the basic causes and behavior of electric demand by customer type and end-use category is generally regarded as the most effective way to study consumer requirements from the standpoints of In any one household, quantity, quality, and schedule.

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business, or factory, the various individual end-use loads operate simultaneously, forming the composite load, as depicted in Fig. IB. The T&D system sees this composite load through the meter as a single load. In aggregate, the loads of all customers produce the system load (Fig. 1A), with each type or class of customer contributing a portion to the overall system demand. The amount of electric load created on a power system within any end-use category, for example residential lighting, depends on a number of factors, beginning with the basic need for lighting. People or businesses who need more lighting will tend to buy more electricity for that purpose. Also important are the types of appliances used to convert electricity to the end-use. Consumers using incandescent lighting rather than fluorescent lighting will use appreciably more electric power for otherwise similar end-uses. The schedule of demand for most end-uses varies as a function of time. In most households, demand for lighting is lowest during mid-day and highest in mid-evening, after dusk but before most of the residents have gone to bed. The daily schedule of lighting demand usually varies slightly throughout the year, too, due to seasonal changes in the daily cycle of sunrise and sunset. Some end-uses are only seasonal. Demand for space heating occurs only during cold weather. Peak demand for heating occurs during particularly cold periods, usually in early morning, or early evening, when household activity is at its peak. The quality of the electric power supplied is more critical to some end-uses than to others. A power system that can provide the quantity of power required may still not satisfy the consumers, either because it does not provide sufficient availability of power (reliability), or because it does not provide sufficient voltage regulation or transient voltage performance (surges, sags). Reliability and voltage regulation needs vary from one end-use to another, as will be discussed later in this chapter, and depends mostly on the value of the end-use to the customer. The value that consumers place on any particular end-use is a function of its importance to their quality of life, or to the productivity of their factory or commercial business. An important (but for many power engineers, counter-intuitive) concept is that end-use value is not of a function of the cost of the electric power. For example, most personal computers and workstations use only 2-3# worth of power per hour, yet users typically report that an hours interruption due to lack of power has a cost of a dollar or more. Cost is a major factor in T&D design. In fact, cost is often a consumers primary concern, for which they are willing to accept major compromises in quality, and quantity, or service. The challenge facing T&D engineers is to meet consumer needs for both Qs - quantity and quality - at the lowest possible cost. Building a system that delivers higher reliability levels than customers need is exactly the same as building one that can deliver much more power than they need. Knowledge of the customer needs for quantity and schedule of power delivery, and of the value they place on reliability, voltage regulation, surge and sag protection, and other factors, are important factors in modern power factor design, as is an

understanding of how customer loads interact with the power system. Most critical, however, is simply the act of keeping in mind that the electric loads used in T&D engineering studies The represent the energy needs of people using electricity. best power system is one that satisfies their needs as economically as possible.

II. CUSTOMER 3. Connected Load

ELECTRIC

LOAD BEHAVIOR

The connected load is the sum of the full load (nameplate) continuous ratings of all electrical devices in the composite A typical household in a developed country load system. might have a 4,000-watt water heater, a l,OOO-watt water-well motor, a 5,000-watt central air conditioner, a 6,500-watt space heater, thirty lighting fixtures or lamps with an average load of 100 watts each, a 4,000 watt cooking range, a 3,500 watt clothes washer/dryer, a 500 watt refrigerator, and 2,500 watts of miscellaneous home entertainment, personal grooming, and other small appliances, for a total of 30,000 connected watts of load. Whether all or any of these are operating at any one time depends on a number of factors, including the demand for their various end-use products. It is rare that all the connected load in a system or at any one customers location would be operational at one time (for example, air conditioning and heating would not be running simultaneously). 4. Electric Load Curves Use of the products created by electric power - light, heat, hot water, images on the TV, and so forth, varies as a function of time of day, day of week, and season of year. As a result, the electric load varies. A load curve plots electric consumption as a function of time. Fig. 2 shows seasonal peak day load curves for residential loads from two electric systems in the United States. In one system, demand is highest in summer, during early evening, when a combination of air conditioning demand and residential activity is at a peak. In the other, peak demand occurs on winter mornings, when a electric heating demand is highest.

Fig. 2Typical summer (solid line) and winter (shaded line) peak day load curves for a metropolitan power system in the southern US (left) and a rural system in New England (right). Load curve shape - when peak load occurs and how load varies as a function of time - depends both on the connected load (appliances) and the activitv and lifestvles of the

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Differences between the electric consumers in an area. demand patterns of otherwise similar types of customer (as in Fig. 2) occur because of differences in climate, demographics, appliance preferences, and local economy. 5. Demand Demand is the average value of load over a period of time known as the demand interval. Often, demand is measured on an hourly or quarter-hour basis, but it can be measured on any interval - seven seconds, one minute, 30 minutes, daily, monthly, annually. The average value of power, p(t) during the demand interval is found by dividing the kilowatt-hours accumulated during the interval by the number of hours in the interval. Demand is the average of the load during the interval. The peak and minimum usage rates during the interval may have been quite different from this average (Fig. 3). Demand intervals vary among applications, but commonly used interval lengths are 5, 15, 30, and 60 minutes. Peak demand, the value often called peak load, in design studies, is the maximum demand measured over a billing or For example, a period of 365 days measurement period. contains 35,040 fifteen-minute demand intervals. The maximum among these 35,040 readings is the peak fifteenminute demand. This value is often used as the basis for an annual demand charge if the readings measure a single customers usage, and as a capacity target in engineering studies: the maximum amount the system must deliver. 6. Demand Factor The demandfactor of a system is expressed maximum demand to the connected load. demand factor is considerably less than 1.O. 7. Load Factor Load factor is the ratio of the average demand to the peak demand during a particular period. Load factor is usually determined by dividing the total energy (kilowatt hours) accumulated during the period by the peak demand and the number of demand intervals in the period, as LF = Total usage during period (Peak Demand) x m (1) as the ratio of Normally the

non-productive work required for their function, such as produce the magnetic field inside a transformer or motor, without which they can not function. VAR flow on a power system consumes capacity in conductors, transformers, and other equipment, but provides no useful real work. It is mitigated by the use of capacitors and other devices, or by changes in the end-use device so that it consumes fewer VARS (see Chapter 8).

Fig. 3Demand on an hourly basis (blocks) over a 24 hour period. Continuous line indicates demand measured on a one-minute Maximum one-minute demand (at 552 PM) is interval basis. about 4% higher than maximum one-hour demand (S-6 PM).

9. Voltage Sensitivity

of Loads

The various electrical appliances connected to the power system exhibit a range of different load vs. voltage sensitivities. Important characteristics include their response to transient voltage changes and their steady state load vs. voltage behavior. Transient voltage response is difficult to characterize and if important, should be modeled with detailed, and specific, study of the transient response of the particular loads involved. Classification of transient load response into categories is useful in some cases, but no simple generalization works in all cases. For steady state representation, individual electric loads are generally designated as falling into one of three categories depending on how they vary as a function of voltage Constant impedance loads, for example an incandescent light or the heating element in an electric water heater, are a constant impedance, whose resulting load varies as the square of the voltage. Constant current loads, including some types of power supplies, many electroplating systems, and other are basically constant current industrial processes, loads. Energy drawn from the system is proportional to voltage. Constant power loads, such as some types of electronic and to an approximate degree, power supplies, induction motors, vary their load only slightly in response to changes in voltage. In each category, reference to a load as 1 kW refers to its value at 1.O PU voltage. Table 2 shows the value of a 1 kW load in each category, as a function of voltage.

where m = number of demand intervals in period LF = Average Demand Peak Demand Load factor gives an indication of the degree to which peak demand levels were maintained during the period under study. Load factor is typically calculated on a daily, monthly, seasonal, or an annual basis. 8. Power Factor All loads require real power - kilowatts - to perform useful work such as mechanical rotation or illumination. Reactive loads also require reactive volt-amperes (VAR) to do a type of (2)

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TABLE2 ACTUALLOAD OFA 1 KW LOAD OFVARIOUSCATECKRIES AS A FUNCTION OFTHEPERUNIT SUPPLY VOLTAGE - WATTS

converge, changing input data to represent all loads as constant power will promote convergence to an approximate solution. Analytical studies and digital programs can be simplified by deleting the constant current category and using only constant power and constant impedance type loads. Constant current load behavior (the rarest of the three types) can be represented over the range .88 to 1.12 PU voltage, with less than .75% error, if modeled as a mixture of 49.64% constant power, and 50.35% constant impedance load. The column labeled Ratio in Table 2 shows this mix of load types, with the right-most column giving the percentage error in representation of an actual constant current load. 10. Characterizing Customers by Class

Correct representation of voltage sensitivity can be an important factor in analysis of power system performance, particularly on systems that are near permissible limits. Usually, engineering studies of transmission system are carried out using representations of the load as constant power. This works well, because the customer loads are usually downstream of load-tap changing transformers and voltage regulators and so are insensitive (in the steady state case) to changes in the voltages being modeled. On the distribution system, however, correct representation of voltage sensitivity is critical for accurate analysis of voltage drop and equipment loads. As can be determined from study of Table 2, the difference between constant power and constant impedance 1 kW loads, at 8% voltage drop (typical of the maximum primary feeder voltage drop permitted on many systems), is 15%. Thus, the incorrect categorization of load voltage sensitivity could lead to a significant over or under estimation of voltage drop and loading on a feeder. Tests to determine voltage sensitivity on a feeder circuit or low-side bus basis, by varying LTC or voltage regulator tap position at the substation, are recommended to determine exact behavior. In the absence of specific information, representation as a constant current (load is proportional to voltage) is recommended. Within the United States, the following rule-of-thumb works somewhat better Summer peaking residential and commercial feeders as a split of 67% constant power and 33% constant impedance. Winter peaking residential split of 40% constant impedance. Industrial and commercial feeders as a power and 60% constant

Usually, electric consumers are grouped into classes of broadly similar demand behavior. A class is any subset of customers whose distinction as a separate group helps identify or track load behavior in a way that improves the effectiveness of the analysis being performed. Electric utilities most often distinguish customers by rate class (pricing category). Customer studies (load research) often make additional distinctions based on demographics, income, or SIC (standard industrial classification) code. Regardless, usually all customers in a class have similar daily load curve shapes and per-customer peak demands, because they employ similar types of appliances, have similar needs and schedules, and respond in a similar fashion to weather and changes in season. Table 3 and Fig. 4 illustrate how customer class values vary in one power system.
TABLE 3PEAK HOURLY DEMAND VALUES FOR CUSTOMERSIN A UTILITY SYSTEMINNEW ENGLAND.1992

11. Customer

Class Peaks Occur at Different Times

feeders as constant power feeders

In developing countries, rural loads are best represented as 25% constant power and 75% constant impedance and those in urban areas as an even split of constant power and impedance. Load flow and similar iterative engineering computations are faster and more stable in convergence if loads are represented as constant power than as constant impedance or current (fewer factors change value from iteration to iteration). In some cases, when a load flow commutation will not

Often, the various classes do not demand their peak energy at the same time, as shown in Fig. 4. As a result, the system peak load may be substantially less than the sum of the individual customer class loads (Fig.5). This is called interclass diversity, or inter-class coincidence, of load. A classs or customers load at time of system peak is its contribution to system peak, and the ratio of its peak contribution to its own peak load is its peak responsibility factor. Table 4 shows the peak load and responsibility factors of various classes in a utility system in the central United States.

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Chapter 24 TO END USE

III. CONVERSION
12. Appliances

Convert Electricity

to End Uses

Each end-use, such as lighting, is satisfied through the application of appliances or devices that convert electricity into the desired end product. For lighting, a wide range of illumination devices can be used, from incandescent bulbs to fluorescent tubes, to sodium vapor and high-pressure monoEach uses electric chromatic gas-discharge tubes and lasers. power to produce visible light. Each has advantages with respect to the other illuminating devices that gives it an appeal in some situations. But regardless of type or advantages, all of these devices require electric power to function, and create an electric load when activated. The term load, in this context, refers to the electric power requirement of a device that is connected to and draws energy from the T&D system to accomplish some purpose (opening a garage door) or to convert that power to some other form of Fig. 4Customer classes typically display different daily load energy (light, heat). Loads are usually rated by the level of curves. Shown here are the class summer peak-day loads from a power they require, measured in units of volt-amperes, or metropolitan utility system in the southern United States. watts. Large loads are measured in kilowatts (thousands of watts) or megawatts (millions of watts). Power ratings of loads and T&D equipment refer to the device at a specific nominal voltage. For example, an incandescent light bulb might be rated 100 watts at 115 volts. If provided more or less voltage, its load would be different from 100 watts. Loads can be single-phase or multi-phase, and they can have real (resistive only) or complex impedance (reactance), too. The electric load in any one end-use category depends not only on the number of customers and their aggregate demand for the end-use, but also on the types of devices they are using to convert electricity to that end-use. For example, lighting load will be higher if most customers are using incandescent lighting to meet their needs, than if they are using only Similarly, if a large percentage of fluorescent lighting. Fig. 5Peak system load in this metropolitan system in Europe customers use only resistive space heating instead of more occurs when a combination of both residential and commercialefficient heat pumps, electric demand will be greater, even if industrial load is at a maximum. the end-use demand is the same. Power quality needs also are For example, variable-speed function of appliance type. chillers are more sensitive to voltage sags than traditional constant-speed building cooling systems. TABLE4SYSTEM PEAKRESPONSIFHLITV BY CUSTOMER CLASS FORA Therefore, detailed analysis of electric load in a utility UTILITYSYSTEMIN THECENTRAL UNITED STATES, 1992 system generally proceeds into subcategories within each customer classs end-use categories, with the subcategories characterized by appliance type, as shown in Fig. 6. The boxes indicate load curve models, the ellipses are multipliers corresponding to the number of customers or the percentage of customers in a class that have a certain appliance (e.g., thermal storage heating). Only part of the model is shown. Dotted lines indicate links to portions not illustrated. In detailed load studies, behavior of load in each category is analyzed by use of temporal curves, plotting demand for the end-use (e.g., gallons of hot water, BTU of heating required) or the electrical load, or cost of service interruption, as a function Information on the percentage of customers of time. employing each type of appliance, their end-use demand schedules, and the electrical and efficiency characteristics of the appliances, comprises the end use model.

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Fig. 6Structure of an end-use analysis based on customer, enduse, and appliance subcategory load curves.

For example, most storage water heaters function in a simple manner to keep the water they provide at a constant temperature, regardless of demand, as illustrated in Fig. 7. A thermostat is set at the desired temperature, for example 172.5F. The thermostat has a deadband, a narrow range of temperatures on each side of the setting, within which the thermostat does nothing. A typical deadband might be 5F for example from 170F to 175F when the thermostat is set to 172.5F. Whenever the temperature drops below the deadbands lower limit, the thermostat activates a relay (or electric circuit) that turns on the heating element. The element is left in operation until it raises the water temperature above the upper limit of the thermostats deadband (175F), at which point the thermostat activates the relay to shut off the heater. The water temperature rises and falls slightly as the unit cycles on and off, as shown, but the electric load cycles completely from all on to all off, as the device tries to maintain a constant temperature. The 4,000-watt water heater, as illustrated in Fig. 7, creates a load of 4,000 watts whenever it is energized by its thermostat. Otherwise it creates no load at all. Over a period of 24 hours, it will vary its duty cycle in response to demand for hot water. When water heating demand is lightest, the water heater may operate only a few minutes in each hour. But when demand is highest, for example in the evening when dishwashing, clothes washing, bathing, and other activities are at a peak, it may operate continuously for an hour or more, as shown in Fig. 8.

13. Appliance

Output Is Controlled

by Varying

Duty Cycle

Only a minority of electrical devices vary their load as a function of the end-use demand placed upon them. For example, the motor drive in a variable speed heat pump will control its RPM (and hence electric load) to correspond to the pumping requirements of the system, on a moment to moment basis. However, such appliances are a rarity. The majority of loads connected to a power system vary their output as a function of time by changing their duty cycle. Duty cycle is the portion of time the device spends operating during any period.

Fig. 8The water heaters load profile over a typical day.

Fig 7Electric load (bottom) and internal water temperature (top) of a 4,000 watt, 50-gallon storage electric water heater as a function of time.

A large portion of the electric appliances in most electric systems, often a majority of the electric demand, operates in this manner. The consumer does not directly control the appliances on-off operation. Instead, the consumers sets a desired end-use measure (temperature, air pressure) on a controlling device (a thermostat, a pressure switch), and this device varies the appliances duty cycle in response to end-use demand. In the residential class, air conditioners, space heaters, refrigerators, freezers, water heaters, irons, and ovens fall into this category. In the industrial class, process heaters, air and water pressurization systems, and many fluid handling systems use this method of control. Fig. 8 shows the resulting daily load curve for a water heater. It cycles on and off, operating for longer times during periods of high demand, and only briefly when there is no demand and it must only make up for thermal losses. In all cases, however, when the water heater is operating its load is the same - 4 kW.

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Fig. 9Daily cycle of THI (temperature-humidity-illumination index) and air conditioner operation. The air conditioners connected load varies slightly as a function of THI.

Fig. 9 shows a slightly more complicated appliance behavior, in which duty cycle and device characteristics both vary. Here, an air conditioner cycles between on and off under thermostatic control. As temperature rises throughout the day, demand for cooling increases, and the air conditioner spends a greater portion of its time in the on state, until in late afternoon it is operating all but a few minutes in every hour. The diagram illustrates a common secondary effect due to AC unit compressor design. When ambient temperature (temperature of the air around the AC radiator) rises, back pressure in the compressor increases, forcing the units inductive motor to work harder and creating a slightly higher electrical load. Thus, its connected load varies with temperature, as shown. 14. Appliance Duty Cycles and Coincidence of Load

Fig. 10 shows the type of load curve widely used throughout the power industry as representative of a residential water heaters daily load curve. This particular load curve was taken from a comprehensive water heater load survey done in the 1980s by a utility in the northern United States, prior to design and implementation of a water-heater load control program. This curve shown has a maximum value of 1,100 watts during a brief early morning household activity peak, and a lower, but broader early evening peak.

The daily water heater load curve in Fig. 10 looks nothing like the daily water heater load curve in Fig. 8. In Fig. 10, load varies smoothly from moment to moment, between a minimum of .53 kW and a maximum of 1.1 kW, displaying none of the blocky, on-off cycling shown in Fig. 8. Neither Fig. 10 nor Fig. 8 is incorrect. Each is accurate, but only within its own context. Their difference is attributable to intra-class coincidence of load. Fig. 11 illustrates the relationship between the two water heater load curves. On the top row, load curves A, and B show the load curves for two electric water heaters in neighboring homes on the same day. Curve C shows the curve for the water heater in B, on another day. All three represent the same appliance under nearly identical conditions. Timing of the load blocks varies, but in all cases the load is all or nothing. Load curve D shows the combined loads of both neighboring water heaters (the sum of curves A and B) on February 6, 1994. Even during the peak hour, the average water heater operates only a fraction of the time (in the system whose average water heater is shown in Fig. 10, exactly 1,100/4,000 of the time, assuming all water heaters are 4,000 watts connected load). For this reason, instances when the two water heaters operate simultaneously are rare, but this does happen several times each day, for brief periods. Curve E shows the curve for five water heaters (the units in five neighboring homes, including A and B). With five units, the likelihood of two or more units operating at any one time is increased considerably. However, the likelihood of all five are operating at the same time is quite remote (roughly 1100/4000 raised to the fifth power, or less than .l percent). Curve F shows the combined load curve of 50 water heaters (all those served by one primary-voltage lateral).

Fig. 10A average residential water heaters coincident demand curve - l/100,000 of the load resulting from 100,000 water heaters. Any single water heater has a load curve similar to that shown in Fig. 8, but its contribution to system load is depicted as shown here. This curve is also the expectation of any one water heaters load by time of day.

Fig. 11Daily load curves for different sized groups of residential water heaters.

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As an increasingly large number of water heaters is While no single customer within the group depicted in Fig. 12 considered as a group, the erratic, back-and-forth behavior of would have an individual load curve that looked anything like Fig. 12B (every customers load curve looks something like the individual water heater load curve gradually disappears. Fig. 12A), the smooth coincident load curve for the group has The load curve representing a groups load becomes smoother as the size of the group is increased, the peak load per water two legitimate interpretations. heater drops, and the duration at lengthens. By the time 1,000 I. The curve is an individual customers contribution to water heaters are reached (Fig. 1 IG) the curve shape is quite On the average, each customer of this system load. smooth, and peak load is at its coincident value of 1,100 class adds this load to the system. Add ten thousand watts/unit. new customers of this type, and the system load curve Thus, Fig. 10 (same as Fig. 1 lG), while unlike any will increase by ten thousand times this curve. individual water heaters actual load curve, is an accurate 2. The curve is the expectation of an individual representation of water heater behavior from either of two customer's load. Every customer has a load that looks perspectives. First, it is a diagram of average contribution to something like the on-off behavior shown in Fig. 12A, system load, or coincident load, on a per water heater basis l/l 00,000 of the load of the 100,000 water heaters in the but each has slightly different on-off times that vary in Fig. 12B system. Second, it is the expectation of a water heaters load an unpredictable manner from day to day. as a function of time. To a certain extent, the exact timing of gives the expectation, the probability-weighed value of the on load blocks in Fig. 7- 9, and Fig. 11 is random from daily load that one could expect from a customer of The fact that the day to day. Fig. 10 is a representation of the expected load of this class, selected at random. one water heater, as a function of time; the best estimate, a day expectation is smooth, while actual behavior is erratic, is a result of the unpredictability of timing in when ahead, of load as a function of time. appliances switch on and off. Note that energy per water heater (area under the load curve) is not a function of group size. The energy used per Commercial and industrial customers exhibit intra-class water heater is constant in any of the load curves in Fig. 11. coincident behavior qualitatively similar to that discussed here, but the shape of their coincidence curves may be (usually is) 15. Coincident Load Behavior in General By contrast, inter-class different than for residential. coincidence is the difference in timing of peak periods among Most of the major loads in any home or business behave in classes (Fig. 4). a manner similar to the on-off, coincident behavior shown in Fig. 7 - 9 and Fig. 11. Refrigerators and freezers, air conditioners, space heaters, water heaters, and electric ovens in homes; and pressurizers, water heaters, process and other finish heaters, and other equipment in industry; all turn on and off in a performance-regulated duty cycle manner. As a result, individual household load curves, and many commercial and industrial site load curves, display the blocky, on-off load behavior shown in Fig. 12A. As with the water heaters, when a group of similar loads (homes in this case) is considered as a single load, the load curve becomes smoother, the peak load drops, and the minimum load rises. Note that the vertical scale of all six load profiles shown in Fig. 12 is in load per customer for each group. The 22 kW non-coincident needle peak demand shown in Fig. 12A for a single household is high, but not extraordinary for homes in the southern United States. Load curve A represents a 2100 square foot residence with 36 kW connected load (sum of all possible heat pump, water heater, garage door opener, washer-dryer, other appliance and lighting loads). While customer characteristics vary from one system to another, the qualitative curve shape behavior shown in Fig. 12, as well as the tendancy of load curves to become smoother, and peak loads lower, as group size is increased, apply to all power systems. 16. Coincident Curve: Expectation of Non-Coincident Load Fig. 12Non-coincident (A) and coincident (B) winter peak day Curves B load curves for home in a suburban area of Florida.
through F show the gradual transformation from non-coincident to coincident behavior as group size increases. Feeders see load curves similar to B. Every service drop sees a load curve like A.

The interpretation of coincident load behavior as the expectation of non-coincident load behavior, as explained in sub-section 14 (water heater example) is generally applicable.

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17. Importance of Coincidence

Characteristics Assessment in T&D Design

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Loads Factors and Curves

Chapter 24

18. Coincidence

Coincidence behavior of load, as depicted in Fig. 12, is important to T&D planning and engineering. Equipment such as service drops, service lines (LV), and service transformers, which serve small numbers of customers, must be designed to handle load behavior, including customer needle peaks, of the type depicted in Fig. 12A. Normal service does not require this equipment to handle these load levels for more than a few minutes at a time, a factor that can be considered in determining the load rating of this equipment. By contrast, equipment serving large groups of customers sees fully coincident load curve behavior (Fig. 12B). Peak load per customer is lower, but peak duration is much longer. Usually, in spite of the high needle peak values, the thermal capacity of service drops, service (LV) circuits, and service transformers can be determined based on coincident peak load values. The thermal time constants for most conductor, cable, and transformers are much longer than the duration of any needle peak. As a result, thermal loading calculated on the basis of coincident curve shape is usually representative of the thermal loads that will result from the actual non-coincident load curves. Voltage drop and losses are another matter, however. Fig. 13 compares the losses that result in a set of triplex service drops, for the two load curves Fig. 12A and Fig. 12B. The result shown is typical. Use of coincident rather than noncoincident load curve typically results in errors of up to 50% in estimating low voltage system losses, and up to 16% in estimating the total voltage drop to the customers meter.

Usually, coincident load behavior is summarized for application to power distribution system engineering by the coincidence factor, and the coincidence curve. Coincidence factor is a measure of how peak load varies as a function of group size for customers C = observed peak for the group I( individual peaks) (3)

Fig. 12 illustrates well that as the number of customers in the group increases, the peak load/customer usually drops by a Coincidence factor, C, can be considerable amount. represented of as a function of the number of customers, n, in a group C(n) = peak load of a group of n customers n x (average individual peak load) (4)

where n is the number of customers in the group, and 1 < n < N = number of customers in the utility system Diversity factor, D(n), is the inverse of coincidence It measures how much higher the customers individual than its contribution to group peak. D = Diversity factor = l/ Coincidence factor factor. peak is

(5)

The coincidence factor, C(n), has a value between 0 and 1, and varies with the number of customers in a fashion identical to the way the peak load varies. Fig. 14 shows a coincidence curve, a plot of how C(n) varies with n. Typically, for residential and small commercial load classes, C(n) tends toward an asymptotic value of between .33 and SO for large values of n. The value for larger commercial and industrial customers is usually higher, - .75 to .85 is typical, Table 5 gives representative asymptotic coincidence values for typical customer classes. Coincidence behavior varies greatly from one utility to another, and among customer classes. The curves and tables shown here are representative of the type of behavior seen in all power systems, but can not be quantitatively generalized to all power systems.

Fig. 13Electric losses through a typical set of residential service drops, for the load curves in Fig. 12A (left) and 12B (right). Voltage drop would similarly show a significant difference.

Usually, coincident load curve data is readily available, but accurate non-coincident load curve data is not. In addition, many types of recording systems and analysis methods distort non-coincident load curve data when it is recorded, producing a smoother curve and lower peak loads than actually existed in the load. Gathering and verifying accurate load curve shape, load factor, and losses factor data for non-coincident and partially coincident (groups of 5-20 customers) equipment analysis requires care and attention to detail. However, it is recommended, due to the potential error that inexact data creates in losses and voltage drop and flicker computations.

F lg. 14Peak load per customer as a function of the number of customers in a group (left scale) and coincidence factor (right scale) for residential class, from a power system in the central US.

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TABLE~-ASYMPTOTIC WINTER PEAK SEASON COINCIDENCE FACTOR

20. Load Duration Curves A convenient way to study load behavior for some engineering purposes is to order the demand samples from greatest to smallest, rather than as a function of time, as shown in Fig. 16. The two diagrams shown in Fig. 16 consist of the same 24 numbers, in a different order. Peak load, minimum load, and energy (area under the curve) are the same for both.

BY CUSTOMERCLASS, FROM A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES,BASEDON 15 MINUTEDEMANDPERIOD DATA

19. Coincidence

of Load Varies as Demand Varies

The coincidence curves and coincident data normally gathered and applied to power system engineering represent peak period behavior - the load conditions for which the system design is targeted. On occasion, however, off-peak coincidence data are gathered, usually to support detailed study of load control, energy efficiency, and other integrated resource programs (discussed later in this section), or for detailed assessment of losses behavior and equipment performance on an annual basis. The connected load on a power system does not vary substantially as a function of time. Electric demand varies because the portion of devices activated by their control system (whether manual or automatic) varies as a function of time. During peak periods, a greater fraction of all customer appliances are activated: There is a higher coincidence of loads. For example, in some areas in the southern United States, over 90% of all residential space heaters are operating at the time (15-minute demand period) of winter system peak. However, during the maximum demand period of an off-peak day (e.g., a day in late fall) only 20% will be operating. Regardless, on either a winter peak day, or an off peak fall day, individual households create needle peak loads as major appliances operate through their on-off cycles. However, during off-peak times, there will fewer needle peaks, of less average duration. As a result, the likelihood of overlap of needle peaks (e.g., coincidence) among neighboring customers is less than at peak. As a result, coincidence curves representing load behavior during peak and an off-peak times will differ, as shown in Fig. 15.

Fig. 16The hourly demand samples in a 24-hour load curve are re-ordered from greatest magnitude to least to form a daily load duration curve.

Load duration curve behavior will vary as a function of the level of the system. Load duration curves for small groups of customers will have a greater ratio of peak to minimum than similar curves for larger groups. Those for very small groups (e.g, one or two customers) will have a pronounced blockiness, consisting of plateaus - many hours of similar demand level (at least if the load data were sampled at a fast The plateaus correspond to combinations of enough rate). major appliance loads. The ultimate plateau, would be a load duration curve of a single appliance, for example a water heater that operated a total of 1,180 hours during the year. This appliances load duration curve would show 1,180 hours at its full load, and 7,580 hours at no load, with no values in between. Annual load duration curves. Most often, load duration curves are produced on an annual basis, reordering all 8,760 hourly loads (or all 35,040 quarter hour samples if using 15minute demand intervals) in the year from highest to lowest to form a diagram like that shown in Fig. 17. The load shown was above 997 MW (system minimum) 8,760 hours in the year, but above 2,000 MW for only 1700 hours.

Fig. 15Coincidence curve for winter peak conditions, and for offpeak conditions (late fall).
I I

Fig. 17Annual load duration curve for a power system serving a metropolitan area in the southeastern United States.

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Thin solid Fig. 18Examples of coincidence curve modification due to various types of demand-side management (DSM) programs. line indicates base coincidence behavior. Heavier lines indicate the coincidence behavior of the load after DSM modification.

switches off, the water heater will activate. Over any lengthy period of time (an hour or more) both appliances usually receive all the energy they need. Thus, over any large group of Many integrated resource methods, such as appliance customers, coincidence of energy usage within any demand interlocking and load control, and other demand-side period will not be affected. The asymptote is unchanged. management (DSM) measures, change the coincidence An opposite type of effect is shown by the broad line in Fig. behavior of customer loads, not the loads themselves. For 18B. Appliance load control is basically a method to limit example, adding insulation and weather-sealing to a building of load. Typically, load does nothing to change the load of its air conditioning and duty cycle, and thus coincidence These energy conservation measures slow controllers are set to limit the operation of any appliance to no heating system. heat transfer into and out of the building, lengthening the the more than a certain number of minutes per demand period. For off portions of every on-off cycle. The same needle peaks example, a controller might be set to limit its air conditioner to occur, but spaced farther apart in time. Basically, this DSM no more than 12 minutes operation out of any 15 minute During peak conditions, the measure cuts the percent of time the AC/heater is on, and period, a duty cycle of 80%. average thermostat may want to operate its air conditioner 90% hence the coincidence of these appliances. of the time. Thus, this load control effects an 11% reduction in Fig. 18A illustrates the change in coincident load behavior made by universal use of appliance interlocking among all air conditioner energy usage. As a result, the asymptotic value of the coincidence curve, for large groups of customers with residential customers in a large group. Interlocking involves jointly wiring the thermostats for the electric water heater, and load control, is reduced. Such a load control measure makes no impact on the the air-conditioner/heater, so that the water heater cannot maximum height of the needle peaks produced by any operate if the air-conditioner/heater is operating. It is a simple The AC unit is still the same connected load, and form of the appliance schedule optimization that can be household. still likely to overlap with other appliances to create high affected with home automation systems. needle peaks. As a result, load control has no impact on the The broad line in Fig. 18A shows the resulting coincidence value of the coincidence curve for individual customers. In curve. The 22 kW peak values, which occasionally resulted cases where control is poorly coordinated, or the load control is from the random overlapping of appliances activating used to maximize the reduction of coincident simultaneously, are now completely avoided. As a result, the aggressively 22 kW peak values, and the value of the coincidence curve at peak load, it can produce a rebound effect, increasing peak the Y-axis, are both reduced by the magnitude of the water loads on some levels of the system, as shown by the dotted line heaters connected load (4 kW in this example). in Fig. 18B. Fig. 18C through Fig. 18F represent the actions of However, the water heater is not denied energy. Its use is other often-used DSM approaches. merely deferred until periods when the air conditioner or heater Fig. 18 illustrates two very important points about DSM programs. First, DSM programs do not necessarily produce is switched off. As soon as the master (AC-heater) appliance 21. Coincidence Curve and DSM Interaction

Chapter 24 similar amounts of load reduction on all levels of the power system. Second, by use of coincidence curve analysis of the type shown in Fig. 18, it is possible to target a DSM programs load reductions at particular levels of the power system. DSM measures that affect the peak loads of large groups of customers, or small groups, can be selected as needed to target feeder or service (LV) levels. IV. MEASURING LOAD CURVE DATA

795

to zero. Demand recorders as used in revenue metering and most (but not all) electronic meters use this type of load recording. Essentially, instantaneous sampling records the actual load Period value at specific instants spaced an interval apart. integration averages its load measurement over the entire There can be, sample interval between two of those instances. and usually is, a considerable difference in the recorded data, depending on which of these two different sampling techniques is used.

Regardless of the actual behavior of the electric load, it is measured and sampled through the eyes of equipment and procedures which may introduce errors by not capturing completely all of the loads characteristics. Many types of load recording perform a type of filtering that makes load behavior look more coincident (smoother, lower peak) than it actually was. Other types mis-recording of load cycles in a way that renders the load curve data virtually useless. In both cases, the data looks like load curves, but is inaccurate. Regardless, power engineers must be aware of the source of all load data, the method used in its recording, and any limitations it creates on the accuracy or use of the resulting data. 22. Load Sampling Rate and Type

Most load measurement, recording, and analysis equipment and procedures work with load curve data as sampled data. Load values are measured and recorded at uniform intervals of time. For example, often load curves are represented in engineering studies as 24 hourly loads. Many load recorders measure and store load behavior on a 15-minute basis. There are two very important aspects of sampling. The first is the type of sampling used, the second is the rate of its application. Discrete sampling measures and records the loads value at specific periodic instances. For example, load recorder may measure electrical load every 15 minutes. Every quarter hour, this device opens its eyes to sample the load, and records the value, and begins a waiting period until the next sampling instant. What the load does in between those 15-minute sample periods is immaterial to the recorder. This kind of sampling, which is often called instantaneous sampling, is the type normally dealt with in textbooks on signal processing as discrete sampling. Much of the load data used in power systems studies comes from this type of sampling. Many types of distribution load recorders (load loggers) do only instantaneous sampling. SCADA systems that trap load readings on a periodic basis do instantaneous sampling. Manual reading of load strip charts is basically discrete sampling: typically, load data is prepared for computer processing from strip charts by an engineer or analyst who reads the value every so often from the strip chart and codes it into the computer data base. Demand sampling, also called period integration, measures and records the total energy used during each period. If applied on a 15-minute basis, period integration records the energy (demand) during each 15-minute period. At the beginning of each measurement interval, a watt-hour meter is re-set to zero and begins counting the energy used. At the end of the period, the reading is recorded, and the counter is re-set

Fig. 19Two different load sampling methods (middle, bottom) applied on an hourly basis to the residential load curve from Fig. 12A (top), produce quite different data.

Fig. 19 shows the single all-electric household daily load curve from Fig. 12A, along with versions of it obtained by sampling on an hourly basis with period integration (middle) Neither demand sampling and discrete sampling (bottom). nor instantaneous discrete sampling on an hourly basis captures all the details of the load behavior. However, in this case, discrete sampling produces a very spurious-looking load curve. for reasons that will be discussed later. 23. Observed Load Behavior and Sampling Rate

The second important aspect of load curve sampling is the sampling rate. Fig. 20 shows Fig. 12A load curve sampled with period integration on a 5, 15, 60 and 120-minute basis. Note that the resulting data displays significantly different The load curve in Fig. 12A was obtained using period integration (demand sampling) on a five-minute interval basis.

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behavior, depending on sampling rate. As the sampling is done faster, the curve shape displays more of its blocky, on-off nature: the recorded data comes closer to representing the true load curve shape peak value. But as shown, if a load is sampled by period integration applied at a slow rate, the resulting load data may look smooth, when, in fact, actual behavior is erratic, with high needle peaks. Fig. 21 shows peak demand for the data in Fig. 12, plotted as a function of period integration sampling rate. The measured peak load decreases as the sampling period increases from five-minutes to one hour. The reason is that the sampling rate, or demand interval, defines the meaning of peak. Sampled at one-minute intervals, the peak is the maximum 60second demand. Sampling on an hourly basis smoothes out a lot of the needle peaks, and yields a curve whose peak is the maximum one hour demand. A non-coincident curve (top of Fig. 20) can look like it was smoother and very coincident simply because it was demand-sampled at too low a sampling rate.

Fig. 21Measured peak demand of a single residential customer varies greatly depending on the intervals used to sample its load.

As shown in Fig. 20 and Fig. 21, changing the sampling rate changes the perceived or measured peak value and the choppiness (variance) seen in the load curve. However, not all types of load curves are equally sensitive to this This effect is most pronounced when sampling phenomenon, non-coincident load curves - those representing small sets of appliances or just a few customer. It is minor or undetectable when sampling load of large groups of customers, such as an entire system. Thus, the apparent coincidence of load changes as a function of sampling rate. Fig. 22 shows coincidence curves for the residential customers used earlier in Fig. 12- 16, recomputed based on period integration sampling intervals of 5, Because the peak load of a single 15, and 60 minutes. customer, upon which coincidence factor computation is based, changes a great deal as a function of sampling rate (Fig. 21), the coincidence curve, itself, will change. Characteristics and sensitivity discussed here involve only period integration sampling (i.e., demand recorders), which is the most common approach to gathering load research and load curve data.

Fig. 22Coincidence curves based on data measured at 60, 15, and 5 minute demand intervals for residential all-electric homes.

Fig. 20Single household load (Fig. 12A) sampled integration (demand recorder) on a 5,30,60,120-minute

by period basis.

Instantaneous sampling has a far different Aliasing. interaction with sampling rate and recording accuracy than the period integration method discussed above. Fig. 23 shows the load for a single household (Fig. 12A) measured by instantaneous sampling on an hourly basis. One profile is the result of sampling instantaneously every hour, on the hour. The other is sampled hourly a quarter past the hour. The apparent load curve shape, and peak load of these two curves Neither is an accurate representation of the are different. actual load curve behavior.

Chapter 24

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The problem with instantaneous sampling applied in this case is that its rate is much to slow to see the load behavior. But unlike period integration, which smooths the load curve when applied at a slow rate, instantaneous discrete sampling distorts it, badly, as shown. The load being recorded in this case (Fig. 12A), has very erratic on-off load behavior common to non-coincident loads. It is simply random chance whether a particularly hourly recording instant, falls upon a needle peak, or a needle valley. For a load that has needle peaks, as does any individual household load, instantaneous sampling at a low sampling rate gives very poor, even completely unusable results.

24. Signal Engineering

Load as a function of time is a signal, a value measured as a function of a continuously varying indexing parameter. A fundamental concept of signal engineering is that any signal can be represented as the sum of a set of sine waves of different frequencies and magnitudes. Low frequencies are slowly undulating sine waves, high frequencies represent rapid Any behavior that is characterized by rapid shifts in value. shifts in value is high frequency behavior. A load curve with a great deal of on-off choppiness, as for example Fig. 12A, has a large amount of relatively high frequency behavior. On the other hand, a smooth coincident load curve (Fig. 12B) has no high frequencies. A fundamental theorem of sampled signal theory is that for instantaneously discrete sampled data to be valid, the sampling must be done at twice the rate of the highest frequency in the signal. Thus, to capture completely behavior of a load curve that has rapid shifts in load (and thus avoid errors as depicted in Fig. 23), it is necessary to sample it twice as often as its appliance loads cycle on and off. Since many appliances turn on and off within a fifteen or even ten-minute period, a minimum rate of five-minute sampling is necessary to see peak load, coincidence, and load curve behavior of such rapid Better yet, onehousehold basis. Fig. 23Single household load curve (top of Fig. 20) sampled with cycling on an individual minute samples can be used when trying to identify appliance hourly discrete sampling. Left: load curve sampled discretely every hour at the beginning of the hour. Right; sampled every or individual household load behavior in detail. hour 15 minutes after the hour. As mentioned in sub-section 23, instantaneous discrete sampling and period integration sampling differ dramatically in While the two load curves in Fig. 23 look quite different, what they do if sampling rate falls short of these requirements. and bear no resemblance to the actual load curve shape, they Essentially, period integration samples a load curve but filters share one characteristic: Both seem to oscillate back and forth it simultaneously. The averaging over each demand interval, every three to five hours. This is called aliasing, or frequency as discussed above, smoothes out choppiness (removes high folding in signal theory, and is essentially a beat frequency To a very good approximation, this type of frequencies). generated by interference between the sampling rate, and the sampling can be thought of as responding only to frequencies duty cycle rate of the appliances in Fig. 12A. Something in the signal that are in the band of frequencies below one-half similar to this occurs any time the measured quantity being integration responds to its sampling rate. The period sampled cycles back and forth at a faster rate than the frequencies in the band it can see (those below its sampling In this example, appliances are cycling on and off rate limit) and ignores those above that limit. sampling. at a rate much too fast for the hourly sampling rate to track. Thus, sampling a load at half-hour intervals with period The beat frequency, or aliasing profile shown here, is a integration will obtain valid information on all frequencies in characteristic of under-sampled curves, something to watch for the load up to one cycle/hour, but will smooth out, or filter, in load data. This type of distortion is common. It is fairly fluctuations that are due to more rapid load behavior. (This easy to detect by manual inspection (at least if given some perspective is slightly simplistic - i.e., only approximate on training and understanding of what causes it), and its presence several minor technical points - but sufficient for this means that the load curve data is probably completely invalid. discussion). Instantaneous sampling, on the other hand, does In the presence of a great deal of erratic on-off load shifts, not filtering, and tries to respond to everything it sees. as occurs in most non-coincident loads, neither period However, it can only validly see frequencies below twice its integration (demand sampling) or instantaneous discrete sampling rate. It responds to frequencies above that limit by sampling gives a completely accurate measurement of the load aliasing them, interpreting high frequency changes as low curve behavior. The integration method averages behavior frequency. The result is a recorded load curve that may be over each period. The instantaneous method may chance upon invalid for most engineering and analysis purposes, as are any value. If the load being measured is fairly smooth, for those in Fig. 23. example the load of an entire power system, then the level of error in either case is minute and the issue unimportance. On 25. Determination of the Sampling Method and Type the other hand, if there is a good deal of non-coincident load Both period integration and instantaneous sampling record behavior, as usually with loads measured on the distribution system, then the sampling rate phenomena discussed here are only approximate data when applied at too low a sampling rate to track non-coincident behavior in the load. Instantaneous of concern in the load analysis and subsequent engineering.

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sampling aliases high-frequency load behavior, producing load curve data that is useless for engineering and load analysis purposes. On the other hand, period integration filters out the high-frequency behavior in the load, producing curves that appear more coincident than the actual load. While this introduces an inaccuracy in subsequent load analysis and engineering, the curves are at least correct within the context of coincident load analysis. In all cases, the preferred approach is to use period integration applied at a high enough rate to sample all the behavior pertinent to the engineering. However, choice of sampling rate and method is often a compromise between cost and accuracy. There will always be some load behavior occurring at a rate faster than can be sampled. Most loads contain motor starting transients and switching fluctuations that can only be captured by very high (10 Mhz) sampling rates. The engineers and load analysts performing load research must either select a load recording method that suits their needs, or make only valid use of the data that has been given to them. Recommended practice is to research fully where the load curve data came from and how it was recorded, and if it has gone through any type of aggregation, filtering, or other process that might have altered coincident demand behavior. Although a majority of recorded load research data comes from demand interval recorders (period integration), a surprising number of sources produce discrete sampling. This includes data taken from SCADA systems, certain types of signal recorders, as well as most portable devices made for logging loads on feeder and service level circuits. In addition, many people forget that data read by hand from strip and circular charts is essentially discretely sampled data. The fact that instantaneous sampling can, and often does, severely alias non-coincident load behavior does not mean it is necessarily a bad recording method, but it must be used with caution. Similarly, while period integration (demand recorders, etc.) always records accurately within its sampling rate limitations, it can be applied at too slow a rate to see needle peaks and non-coincident load behavior that are present. High sample rate does not guarantee high frequencies. Sampling a signal at a fast rate does not guarantee that there will be high frequencies in the data. It could very well be that the load being sampled is smooth and has no high frequencies. Often, the sensors in recording machinery have a poor response to high-rate fluctuations. For example, strip chart recorders with a very tight dampers cannot respond to fast load shifts. Essentially, such mechanical stabilizers remove high frequencies from the load curve signal. 26. Addition and Averaging Filter Load Curve Data

dividing by 1,000 may seem to be a proper way to produce a representative single-household non-coincident load curve, it gives a smooth coincident curve instead. Addition is a signal filtering process. The average curve obtained by addition/division of a number of customer sample load curves is filtered, in a way that removed high frequency This is the major reason why many T&D load fluctuations. engineering studies and load analysis procedures consistently underestimate non-coincident load behavior and often underestimate the amount of coincidence (value of C(n) for n very large). Most of the load curve data available to engineers has been obtained and processed by averaging a group of sampled customer load curves. This averaging produces only Most load curve data in use at coincident load curve data. electric utilities has been produced by averaging, over large enough - customer samples, that it is effectively representation of completely coincident behavior. It makes no difference, in the example cited above, whether the load curves added together were samples for 1,000 households on the same day, as described above, or perhaps 1000 days worth of one minute readings for one house. In either case, the result of adding together the sampled curves and averaging them to create an average with create a smooth, coincident load curve. The usual reason that a set of load curves is averaged is to produce a single curve that is most representative of the sets Simply put, algebraic methods (averaging) cannot behavior. be used to produce average non-coincident curves: there is no work-around within normal algebraic approaches. Instead, some form of pattern recognition or clustering analysis must be applied to find the load curve most like all the others. For example, the k-.means method of cluster analysis can be used to identify one or more curves which have, individually, the most average peak load, variation rates, energy usage, and daily curve shape. 27. Sampling Rate Influences Load Duration Curve Shape

Load duration curves will appear different depending on the sampling rate of the load data, too, as shown in Fig. 24. Since data sampled at faster rates sees non-coincident needle peaks, it yields load duration curves that reflect that load behavior. Fig. 24 shows annual load duration curves for Fig. 12A, based on 5- and 60-minute demand period sampled data.

Suppose every one of 1,000 households served by a particular feeder is sampled on a one-minute demand basis, for a full day (creating 1,440 samples per customer). An average load curve can then be formed by adding all 1000 load curves and dividing by 1000. The result will be a smooth, coincident curve, in fact the same curve shape (except for losses) that would have been recorded by measuring the feeder load at the substation. While adding together 1,000 load curves and

Fig. 24Load duration curves of single residential customer (e.g., Fig. 12A) based on two sampling rates.

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IV. DISTRIBUTION LOSSES ARE NOT PROPORTIONAL TO DEMAND SQUARED One result of the coincidence behavior and sampling issues illustrated in this chapter is that the load-related losses on a power distribution system generally do not correspond to the The difference is due to square of the metered demand. interaction of demand sampling with the coincidence effects of the loads being served. Fig. 25 illustrates an extreme case, in which losses are a purely linear function of measured demand. The water heater operates for 15 minutes during the hour from 6 to 7 AM, and 30 minutes in the hour from 7 to 8 AM. Demand measured on an hourly basis doubles. Electrical losses in the wiring serving this water heater also double. They do not quadruple (as they would if losses varied as the square of demand) because the peak load in every demand interval is the same: as the demand changes from hour to hour, only the load factor changes. In the extreme case shown in Fig. 25, losses in the line serving only the water heater, are a purely linear function of demand. This will be true regardless of the demand period intervals. Whether measured and compared on a minute, hour, day, or annual basis, losses are a linear function of demand.

Fig. 25Load of a water heater over a four-hour period (left) and the losses that result in the line serving it (right).

Load behavior at the service (LV) level is seldom the perfect all or nothing on-off load situation depicted in Fig. 25, but neither is the relationship between losses and load an IR relationship. Observed losses vs. demand behavior generally falls somewhere between two extremes characterized by fundamentally different behavior of the load: Losses are a linear function of demand. In such cases, the peak load is identical in every demand period and load factor changes from one demand period to another. Losses are a squared (quadratic) function of demand. The losses factor remains constant in each demand period but peak load varies in proportion to demand.
The exact nature of the losses vs. demand
relationship

observed in any situation will depend on the load curve itself, the demand period with which load and losses are measured, and possible errors in the monitoring and recording of the data. Fig. 26 shows three examples of losses vs. demand measurements on the distribution system. In all three, the observed 1OSSeS VS. demand relationship lies within an envelope defined by the two extremes - linear and squared behavior.

Fig. 2&A: Hourly losses vs. hourly demand over a one-week period for the secondary circuit/drops serving one of the 282 homes in a neighborhood served exclusively by a single Lower (curved) line indicates a distribution primary feeder* squared losses vs. demand relationship, upper (straight) line B: Hourly load-related losses vs. indicates a linear relationship. hourly demand for the 12.47 kV distribution feeder serving these 282 homes. C: Monthly load-related losses vs. monthly energy

(this can be converted to monthly demand be

731 hours/month)

dividing

energy

by

for the same feeder over the same period.

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shows the losses vs. demand data for this feeder, on an hourly demand period basis. The relationship appears much closer to Usually, electrical losses are modeled as a function of squared than when the individual customer data was examined demand with an equation fitted to measurements taken during on the same hourly basis (Fig. 26A). Error in estimating losses selected periods (e.g., the data in Fig. 26). Most often, the as a function of demand occurs with a = .07, b = .93, and e = function used estimates hourly losses as a function of hourly 1.91. (A larger value of b, and a value of e closer to 2, demand, using the maximum recorded hourly demand, and indicates a more squared relationship). Generally, losses vs. maximum recorded hourly losses as factors in the computation. demand behavior for equipment serving large groups of Either of two functional representations are often used. As customers appears less linear and more quadratic (squared) applied to hourly data, they would be: than for smaller groups. In Fig. 26C, the feeders losses and energy (essentially the Losses(h) = L,,, x (a x D (h)/D,,, + b x (D(h)/Dma.J2) (6) same as demand, demand = energy/173.33 hr./mth.) are compared on a monthly basis, instead of the hourly basis used Losses(h) = L,,, x (D(h)/ D,,,) in Fig. 26B. The observed relationship between losses and Where h indicates the hour, demand is much more linear than when hourly intervals were D(h) is the demand observed in hour h, used to analyze the same load: error is minimized with a = .4 1, D max = maximum recorded hourly demand b = .59, and e = 1.52. The monthly demand period is much Lmax = losses during maximum demand hour longer than the major cycle periods of the feeders load (daily a+b=l and weekly variations). Generally, losses vs. demand behavior e is a value between 1.O and 2.0 appears more linear if longer demand intervals are used in the analysis. The values a and b in equation 6 are essentially the same as the a and b factors used in traditional computations of losses 29. Mean Error in Estimating Loads factor from load factor.2 They represent the extent to which Representation of losses as a squared function of demand in losses behave in a linear, or squared, manner, respectively. equations like 6 and 7 usually results in underestimation of the Where losses are a linear function of load, a = 1 and b = 0, and the value e in equation 7 would be 1.O. Where losses have a average level of losses. Note the plotted lines, representing linear and squared losses behavior in Fig. 26. The curve squared relationship to demand, a = 0, b = 1, and e = 2.0. representing losses as a function of demand squared is lower in Significant non-squared losses behavior on distribution all cases than the measured losses. The line representing systems usually occurs in the equipment that serves individual losses as a linear function of demand is uniformly higher than customers with small loads. The most extreme non-squared any of the losses measurements. This is always the case when losses vs. demand behavior that is routinely encountered is a using losses estimation equations such as 6 or 7, calibrated single household load, as shown in Fig. 26A (data is taken from the same load as in Fig. 12A. This is the losses vs. load against peak period demand and the values D,,, and L,,,. Generally, if the long-term performance of a load analysis situation for the service drops leading to this single house. As the measured hourly demand in Fig. 12A varies, both its and prediction equation is to overestimate losses, then it is too peak load and load factor vary roughly in proportion to one linear in the calibration of its a and b, or e terms, regardless of another. As a result, hourly losses vs. demand behavior is a the level of its average absolute hourly error. Similarly, if it the amount mixture of the two extremes discussed above. Modeling of consistently shows a bias toward underestimating of losses over many demand periods, then it has been hourly losses as a squared function of hourly demand (a = 0 and b = 1 in equation 6, or e= 2.0 in equation 7) gives 35% calibrated as too quadratic, even if it is giving satisfactory average error on a demand-period basis. average absolute error. Error is 13.5% when using 15 minute intervals. Modeling of the losses as a linear function of demand gives roughly twice these levels of error (almost all distribution losses behavior is closer to squared than to linear). Usually, proper selection of a, b, and e coefficients can cut error by about 3/4. Use of a = .33 and b = .66 in equation 6 minimizes average absolute error, reducing it from 35% to 8.9%. Use of e = 1.51 in equation 7 similarly minimizes error, at 9.1%. The two equations provide different estimates on an hourly basis (with an average absolute difference of 4%) but are roughly equal in overall modeling accuracy. When using quarter-hour demand periods in this example, a = .24, b = .76, and e = 1.6 minimizes average absolute error, at less than 5%. The load curve shown in Fig. 12A is one of 282 residential loads in a neighborhood served by a 12.47 kV feeder. Fig. 26B
For example, see Electric Utility Distribution Systems Engineering Reference Book, Westinghouse Electric Company, 1959, page 28.

TABLE 6COEFFICIENTS FOR LOSSES vs.

DEMAND ON AN HOURLY DEMANDPERIOD BASISAS A FUNCTION OF SYSTEMLEVEL

Chapter 24 30. Modeling Losses on the Distribution System

801

The relation observed between losses and demand on a T&D system will depend on the customer load behavior, the measuring and recording equipment being used, and the demand period length of the recording and analysis. Generally, coincidence and demand period affect results: I. Coincidence. Equipment that serves small groups of customers, exhibits more linear losses vs. demand behavior (higher ratio of a/b; lower e) than equipment with many customers downstream. For example, the single customer hourly data shown in Fig. 26A is much more linear than that for the group of 282 customers in Fig. 26B. The two plots show essentially the same load type, observed on the same (hourly) demand period basis. Losses vs. demand for coincident load situations is closer to quadratic. For non-coincident situations it is usually closer to linear. Thus, the best values of a and b, or e, to estimate losses as a function of demand on an hourly basis, will depend on the level of the system being modeled. Table 6 gives typical values for b and e on power systems in North America. 2. Demand period length. The losses vs. demand relationship shown in Fig. 26A, for the service drops leading to a household like that shown in Fig. 12A, is a mixture of linear and squared behavior when sampled on an hourly demand basis. The hourly sampling rate is much longer than the natural on-off cycles of many of the major appliances (see sub-section 13 of this chapter). The losses vs. demand relation would appear to be nearly a perfect squared relationship if evaluated on a minute by minute basis (not shown). Similarly, losses vs. demand data for the feeder has a considerable non-quadratic behavior when viewed on a monthly basis (Fig. 26C), because the demand periods are much longer than the daily and weekly load swings normally seen in the load, as well as the three- to sixweather-front cycles which often affect the day weather-sensitive portion of these loads. Hourly demand periods (Fig. 26B) are much shorter than these cycles, and observed losses vs. demand behavior at this demand period length is very nearly a perfectly squared relation. Short demandperiods produce more quadratic losses vs. demand behavior; while long demand periods result in a relationship that appears more linear. Short and long as used here are relative to the dynamic cycles or periodicities of the load behavior. Therefore, the overall losses vs. demand relationship depends on both the equipment level of the system being studied (amount of load or customers downstream) and the demand period being used for data and analysis. Fig. 27 shows values of b (for equation 6) that work well as a function of level of the system and demand period in a typical residential area in the southwestern United States. The qualitative behavior shown occurs on all power systems.

Fig. 27Values of b for equation 4 that give minimum error in estimating losses from demand for residential load in a utility Losses vs. demand system in the southwestern United States. behavior on other systems will differ quantitatively from the but is generally qualitatively similar. values shown here, less than 1 refers to individual Number of Customers appliances loads and household circuits.

31. Losses vs. Demand on the Entire Distribution

System

From 25% to 66% of distribution losses occur on portions of the distribution system near the customer, portions that deviate significantly from a squared losses vs. demand As a result, the overall losses vs. demand relationship. relationship for an entire distribution system will usually deviate noticeably from a squared relationship. The quantitative relationship varies from one system to another depending on customer loads, system equipment types, and layout and design used in the primary and service levels. Generally, b is in the range of .75 to .88, behavior is more non-quadratic that quadratic than linear, but sufficiently significant error(on the order of 25%) results in predicting hourly losses from demand if a purely squared relationship is assumed.

Fig. 28Monthly energy vs. load-related losses for the system that includes the feeder aid loads shown in Fig. 26. This includes losses on feeders, laterals, and secondary/service drops. b 578

802

Characteristics
VI. T&D SYSTEMS ARE BUILT TO SATISFY CUSTOMERS, NOT LOADS

of Distribution

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Chapter 24

32. Quantity,

Quality, and Value

The diverse types of consumers purchasing electric power from the distribution system have different uses for the power they buy, different needs for quantity (amount of power purchased), and needs for quality (continuous availability, tight voltage regulation), and different dispositions to pay a premium price to get exactly what they need. The value a particularly consumer places on electric power is a function of his or her needs for electricity, primarily as defined by the economic or personal value of the end-use (i.e., watching television and keeping food cool, stamping sheet metal into equipment cases, operating a cash register/inventory system), and as fashioned by the demands of the appliances used to convert electricity into the end-use. The major element of customer quality is availability of sufficient quantities of power. Quality can be as or even more important than quantity in determining the customer value, but the important point is that both quantity and quality are major factors to be considered in determining how to maximize customer value. Two common residential appliances that illustrate the opposite extremes in these two Q dimensions that can exist among customers. These are an electric water heater and a personal computer. A typical 50-gallon storage water heater has a connected load of 4,000 watts, and a coincident contribution to system peak of about 1,100 watts. This is a relatively high demand for quantity of power as compared to most household appliances (typically only central air conditioners or heaters use more power). Power to a water heater can be interrupted routinely for several hours at a time (and often is under peak-shaving load control programs). Such interruptions make little impact on its value to the customer, because it can supply reasonable quantities of hot water from its storage tank during power interruptions. In addition, its end-use performance is virtually immune to voltage sags, surges, and even significant long term variations in supply voltage. Thus, while a water heater has a high demand for quantity, it has a low demand for power quality.

A personal computer exhibits demand characteristics exactly the opposite of the water heaters. A typical PC has a connected load of about 180 watts, and a contribution to But while its coincident peak of the same magnitude. connected load is one twentieth, and its peak demand only one sixth of the water heaters, its demand for quality is much higher. Measured as the time it can go without power while continuing to perform its end-use function, a PC is about 15,000 times more sensitive to power continuity problems than a water heater. It is also vastly more sensitive to voltage sags and surges, and long-term changes in voltage. Largely because of the different needs of their appliances and equipment, and the difference values of the net end-use products, electric customers vary greatly in their demand for electric power quality. Fig. 29 gives five examples of cost of interruption value of electric customers. The cost vs. time functions shown are not typical, because there is no typical need for power quality, just as there is no typical quantity of power requirement that suits all customers. In general, commercial and industrial consumers have a higher demand for both quantity and quality of power than residential consumers. In a competitive electric power industry, and a world where attention to quality is taken for granted in many other industries, power system engineers should anticipate increasing levels of attention on quality of power delivered. This does not necessarily mean that quality must be or will be improved. Cost is an important element of value, and a large portion of consumers in most power systems would prefer to pay a lower price for power, even if that means they must sacrifice some amount of power quality in return. The important point is that like quantity of power, quality is an important attribute. As it is with quantity, it is possible to overbuild or underbuild a power system with respect to the amount of quality that needs to be delivered. The challenge facing power engineers is to design the lowest cost system that can deliver the required levels of both, and no more.

VI. GROWTH OF ELECTRIC LOAD CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS

AND T&D

33. Spatial Distribution

of Load Defines T&D Needs

Fig. 29-Cast vs. interruption duration when an interruption unexpected (top), and when one days notice is given (bottom).

is

Electric load is not evenly spread throughout a power systems service area, but instead, non-homogeneously distributed, with high load density in some areas and no load in others, as shown in Fig. 30. This is due to the heterogeneous distribution of land use and activity within any city, town, or rural region - some areas are more densely settled and active than others. Not shown in Fig. 30, but an important fact in determining electric load, is that customer class varies by location, too. Some areas of a system are nearly entirely residential, others commercial, or industrial, and others mixed. The load map in Fig. 30 shows some very common characteristics of spatial load distribution, shared by most large metropolitan areas: high load density in the urban core, gradually decreasing toward the periphery, with tendrils of higher load density following major transportation corridors.

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Fig. 30Spatial distribution of electric load for a city of about 1 million population in the eastern United States. Shading indicates load density. Lines indicate major roads. At the left, 1998 winter peak load. At the right, a forecast of peak load for year 2010, based on projected trends in load density, customer count, area development, peripheral expansion, and end-use loads. The city is projected to grow both up and out during the 12-year period. Some interior areas are projected to increase in load density, but others are not, and load density decreases in a few areas. Load develops in previously vacant areas, particularly along the south periphery.

The load maps in Fig. 30 system for the region shown. 2,3 10 MVA of electric power Its ability to do so reliably measure of its performance as

outline the mission of the T&D In the year 1998 it must deliver in the geographic pattern shown. and economically is the major a power delivery system.

35. Growth Drives System Expansion Fig. 30B shows the projected load 12 years later than Fig. 30A, based on a detailed evaluation of economic growth of the region, land availability, demographic and zoning factors, and expected changes in per capita and end-use loads. After this 12-year period of growth, the T&D system will be expected to deliver 3,144 MW in the pattern shown. During the intervening 12 years, additions and changes to the system must be made so that it can grow along with the load. This load growth is the motivation for the equipment additions, and the expansion budget will be well spent only if the equipment is located, and locally sized properly, to match the evolving load pattern in Fig. 30B. Comparison of Fig. 30A and Fig. 30B reveals several characteristics of load growth as it affects T&D systems: Previously vacant areas develop load, e.g., the swath of load growth across the entire southern frontier of this city between 1998 and 2010. Entirely new parts of the system must be built into these areas. Some vacant areas do not grow. For whatever reason, some areas remain vacant, often because of local covenants or because they are for public use (parks, etc). Load in some developed areas increases in load density, perhaps substantially. Examples in Fig. 30 include the urban core and some areas in outlying areas. Load in some developed areas remains constant, or falls slightly due to increasing appliance efficiency in areas that otherwise remain unchanged (no new building construction or population increase).

34. Load Density Varies With Location Fig. 30 illustrates how load density varies as a function of location within a power system. Analysis of load in terms of kW/acre or MW/square mile is a convenient way of relating it to local T&D capacity needs and is often used in power delivery planning. Load density is an important aspect of T&D planning, since the capacity and location requirements of T&D equipment depend on local load characteristics, not system averages. Typical ranges of values for urban, suburban, and developed rural areas are given in Table 7. The values shown are typical, but values specific to each particular system should be obtained by measurement.
TABLE7TYPICAL LOAD DENSITIES FORVARIOUS TYPES OFAREAS

804 The difference between Fig. 30A and Fig. 30B represents the challenge facing this systems T&D planners. They must make additions whose equipment types, capacities, locations, and interconnections to the existing system result in a 12years hence system that can reliably and economically serve the pattern shown. 36. Two Causes of Load Growth Two simultaneous processes create electric load growth or change, both at the system and at the distribution level. Increases in the number of customers in the utility service area, and increases in the usage per customer cause electric load to grow. No other process causes load growth: If the electric demand on a power system increases from one year to the next, it can be due only to one or a combination of both of these processes: I) New customers are added to a system due to migration into an area (population growth) or electrification of previously non-electric households. Customer growth causes the spread of electric load into areas that were vacant from the power systems standpoint. 2) Changes in per capita usage occur simultaneously and largely independently of any change in the number of customers. In developing economies this is driven by the acquisition of new appliances and equipment in homes and businesses. In developing nations, per capita load growth often decreases, due to improving appliance efficiency. In cases where per capita consumption is increasing, it is usually due to major shifts in appliance market penetration. For example, the percentage of homes and businesses using electric power to heat the interior of buildings may increase from 20% to 26% over a decade. In such a case, even if appliance efficiency is increased slightly, electric load will grow. 37. Spatial Load Growth and the S Curve Characteristic When viewed from a total system basis, a growing power system generally exhibits a smooth, continuous trend of annual peak load growth. Given a healthy economy, and corrected for variations due to weather, the load in the region will simply continue to grow at a continuous rate.

-_ Chapter 24 By contrast, growth in any relatively small geographic area is not a smooth continuous trend from year to year. Instead, it follows the Gompertz curve, commonly referred to as an 5 curve, shown in Fig. 31. The S curve is the basic behavior of load growth as it affects T&D equipment, such as in feeder and substation areas. Nearly every small area within a large power system has a load growth history similar to that shown in Fig. 3 1, for a very simple reason: landfills up. The S curve has three distinct phases, periods during the local areas history when fundamentally different growth dynamics are at work: Dormant. The time before growth, when no load growth is occurring. The small area has no load and experiences no growth: growth hasnt arrived yet. Growth ramp. During this period growth occurs at a relatively rapid rate, usually due to new construction. Saturation. The small area is filled up - fully developed. Growth may continue, but at a very low level compared to that during the growth ramp. What varies most among the thousands of small areas in a large utility service territory is the timing of their growth ramps. Seen in aggregate over several thousand small areas, and the overall system load curve looks smooth and continuous because there are always roughly the same number of small areas in their rapid period of growth. The continuous year-toyear trend for the whole system is due to diversity in the timing of when areas grow: any one area grows for only a short time, but new areas of growth are constantly being added to a growing city, so as a whole, it grows continuously. Evidence of historical S curve load growth exists in every city. Most people can identify areas of their home town or city that developed in the 196Os, the 1970s the 1980s or the 1990s. The buildings in these areas are of a common age, because all were built during a burst of development in that area, at that time. 38. Relation of Load Growth Causes to S Curve Shape These two causes of load growth are tied to different parts of the S curve characteristics, as shown in Fig. 31. The growth ramp occurring over a short period of time is due to new customers in the area. The slow, steady growth thereafter is due to increasing per-capita usage by the customers in the area. In some cases, the slow, steady trend is a reduction over time, due to improving appliance efficiency. 39. Growth Behavior as a Function of Spatial Resolution Planners of the power supply to an entire region have no need of specific geographic information on the locations of loads, or the areas which are or are not growing rapidly. They have no need of spatial resolution in their planning, for their goal is to plan and operate sufficient power for the entire region. T&D planners, on the other hand, do have a need for locational information in the planning, routing, design, and

Fig. 31The S curve has an interval of high growth sandwiched between two periods of lower rate growth.

rate

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operation of their system. Facilities are utilized more efficiently if they are sited correctly. The need for locational detail in planning and engineering is called spatial resolution. Spatial resolution requirements vary depending on application: feeder planning requires more detail on and is more sensitive to changes in the location of loads, than transmission planning. Table 8 gives typical range of spatial resolutions (knowledge of load as a function of location) that work well in T&D planning. The table indicates that knowledge of how load density, and load growth are usually needed to match equipment locations so that economy and reliability are maximized to the load. Resolution as used in the table refers to the width of a square area used for load studies, and within which reliable information on load locations is not available.
TABLE 8TYPICAL SPATIALRESOLUTION (LOCATIONALDETAIL) FOR PLANNING AS A FUNCTION OF SYSTEMLEVEL

steady annual load growth over a long period of time, as shown. Except for weather and economy, many cities have in steadily in this manner: Denver, Phoenix, fact grown Indianapolis, Bangkok Caracas, and Rabat, to name just a few. Imagine dividing the metropolitan area illustrated in Fig. 32 Each quadrant would still be very large (in a into quadrants. city like Atlanta or Houston, nearly a thousand square miles). If the exact load history of each quadrant could be plotted, all would be slightly different in amount of load and rate of growth, but all would still have a fairly smooth, continuous trend. This is shown in Fig. 33.

Fig. 33Quadrants also display smooth, long-term growth trends.

Due to the S curve growth dynamics described earlier, observed load growth behavior varies as a function of the spatial resolution used in load analysis and planning. Load growth behavior will appear to be different simply depending on the small area size used to collect and analyze growth.

But if this process of hierarchical sub-division continues, splitting each sub-quadrant into sub-sub-quadrants, then into sub-sub-sub-quadrants, and so forth, S curve load growth trends will begin to be discernible as the common characteristic of growth, when the sub-division reaches a size of about 16 square miles (square areas 4 miles, or 6 km, on a side). Most long-term trends at this spatial resolution would begin to display slight kinks, something like those shown in Fig. 34 - an S curve, rather than a smooth, long-term steady growth pattern.

Fig. 32Annual peak load of a large city over a twenty-five period, after correction for weather and other anomalies.

year

Fig 34Areas of about 16 square miles (areas 4 miles on a side) display discernible S curves load growth behavior . The city grows at a steady rate (Fig. 32) because the growth ramps of different areas occur at different times.

To understand this phenomenon, and to see how and why it occurs, it is useful to consider a diagram of the annual peak load of a growing city of perhaps 2,000,OOO population, as illustrated by Fig. 32. For simplicitys sake, assume that there have been no irregularities in the historical load trend due to weather, changing economy, or shifts in service territory boundaries. This leaves a smooth growth trend, one that shows

Carrying the sub-division to the extreme, one could imagine dividing a city into areas so small that each contained only one building. At this level of spatial resolution, annual peak load growth would be characterized by the ultimate S curve, a step function. Although the timing would vary from one small area to the next, the basic load growth history of a small area of such size could be described very easily. For many years the area had no load. Then, usually within less than a year, construction started and finished (for examples

806

Characteristics

of Distribution Loads

Chapter 24

sake, imagine that a house is built in this very small area), and a significant load established. For many years thereafter, this annual load peak of the small area varies only slightly - the house is there and no further construction occurs. The quantitative behavior of the S curve growth characteristics will depend somewhat on the spatial resolution (small area size used). There are three important interactions with between growth characteristics and spatial resolution. I. The YY curve behavior becomes sharper as the service territory is subdivided into smaller and smaller areas. The smaller the small areas being studied (the higher the spatial resolution) the more definite and sharp the S curve behavior exhibited, as shown in Fig. 35. Quantitative behavior of this phenomena depends on growth rate, demographics, and other factors unique to a region, and varies from one utility to another. Qualitatively, all utility systems exhibit this behavior: S curve load trend becomes sharper as area size is reduced.

spatial resolution, growth is usually a short, intense period of It usually happens in areas where there was no development. previous load, and it does not always occur - many areas stay vacant. The three changes in growth character discussed above occur on(v because spatial resolution of data collection and analysis changes. The character of the load growth itself does By asking not change, only the way it appears to the planner. for more spatial information (the where of the T&D planning need) the very appearance of load growth itself, changes.

2. As the utility service territory is subdivided into smaller and smaller areas, the number of small areas that have no load and will never have any load increases. When viewed on a square mile basis (640 acre resolution) there will likely be very few completely vacant areas in a city such as Phoenix or Atlanta or Caracas: square miles that are completely devoid of electric load. But if examined on an acre-parcel basis, a significant portion of land, perhaps as much as 15%, will be vacant as far as electric load is concerned, and will stay that way. Some of these vacant areas will be inside city, state, or federal parks, others will be wilderness areas, cemeteries or golf courses, and many other merely useless land - areas on very steep or otherwise unusable terrain. 3. The amount of load growth that occurs within previously vacant areas increases as small area size decreases. If the load growth of a city such as Denver or Houston were analyzed over the period 1980 to 1990, using a small area size of nine square miles (areas three miles to a side), almost all of the load growth during the period would have occurred in areas that had noticeable amounts of load in 1980. By contrast, if those same regions were examined at a 2.5 acre spatial resolution (small areas l/l6 mile to a side) nearly half of the decades load growth would be found to have occurred in small areas that had no significant load in 1980 - areas that were vacant. Thus, the observable dynamics of load growth appear somewhat different depending on the amount of where detail used in the load analysis. As spatial resolution is changed, the character of the observed load growth changes, purely due to the change in resolution. At low resolution (i.e., when using large small areas) load growth appears to behave as steady, long-term trends in areas with some load already established. Few, if any areas, are completely devoid of load. By contrast, if examined at high

Fig. 35As small area size for the load growth analysis is decreased, the average small area load growth behavior becomes more and more a sharp S curve behavior. (vertical scales of the four plots shown are different, with the full range in each case indicating 100% of the fully-developed load level).

40. Regions Fill Up In A Discontinuous

Manner

Fig. 36 shows another way to examine the S curve growth behavior at the distribution level, and reveals another implication of this growth behavior. Shown is the growth of electric load in a region of about 24 square miles on the outskirts of a large, growing metropolitan area, over a 12-year Individual land parcels within this area generally period. follow the S curve growth behavior pattern, with a growth ramp (period from 10% to 90% of eventual saturated load) of The about three years at the l/4 square mile resolution. complete area, however, has a growth ramp of about 15 years. The development of load within this area is geographically discontinuous, with the timing of various parcels displaying a somewhat random pattern. While growth usually develops from the southwest outward (this area is on the northeast edge of the metropolitan area), the timing of when a parcel of land begins to develop is somewhat random. Growth does not develop as a smooth trend outward, but instead appears to be a semi-random process. Once load has filled up one parcel, it does not automatically proceed to the next in line, but may jump to another nearby area. Thus, early in the process of growth for this whole area, some parcels develop to saturation on its far edge early in the process. The most unpredictable aspect of small area load growth is the exact timing of parcel development. In contrast, experience and research has shown that the eventual load level in most small areas can be predicted fairly well, as can the expected duration of growth ramps (see Willis,

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1996). However, the exact timing of growth appears to be somewhat random, at least as viewed from apriori information likely to be available to the planner. Implications for T&D expansion are clear. The system cannot be extended incrementally outward from the southeast as load grows. Instead, substation siting and feeder expansion must deal with delivering full load density to an increasing number of neighborhoods scattered over the entire region, that develop geographically into a higher overall density. This means that full feeder capability (maximum designed load and maximum designed distance) may be needed far sooner than predicted by the gradually increasing density concept.

early, in order to reach these disparate locations. An economic dilemma develops because the utility will eventually need a good deal of capacity in these routes when the load fills in the area, but planners do not want to incur the cost of building now for load levels not expected for 1O-12 years. The challenge is to find a way to expand the system without building a majority of the routes early, or having to build many long routes with higher capacity than will be needed for years. 41. Putting Out Fires Is the Norm in T&D Expansion T&D planners often speak about putting out fires having to develop plans and install equipment and facilities on a tight time schedule, starting at the last moment, without proper time to develop comprehensive plans or coordinate area development overall. A point illustrated here is that the load growth aspect of this situation is the norm: rapid growth that starts with little warning, fills in an area relatively quickly, and then moves elsewhere, not only happens on a regular basis, but is the normal mechanism of growth. The S Curve growth characteristic, its tendency to be sharper in smaller areas, and the semi-random, discontinuous pattern of load development described above, are very general characteristics that affect all power systems. Load development in a small area almost always begins with little long-term warning, grows at a rapid rate to saturation, and then moves to other areas, usually near by, but often not immediately adjacent. This growth characteristic is the basic process that drives T&D expansion, equipment additions, and the planning and engineering process. T&D engineers will never change the nature of load growth and development. The recommended approach is to develop planning, engineering, and equipment procurement procedures that are compatible with this process. These include: a) Master plan development based on projected area development. As noted above, the eventual load density for any small area, and the overall pattern of development for a region, can be predicted with reasonable accuracy fairly far in advance. Thus, long range plans optimized to the expected pattern of development can be developed. b) Use of modular system layouts for transmission, substations, feeders and service (LV) parts of the system, that permit modular expansion on an incremental parcel basis. Some types of layout are more expandable on a fill in the parts basis that others. In particular, the growing use of multi-branched rather than large-trunk feeder layouts is one reaction to this situation. Such feeders can be expanded on a short range basis, to cover a growing area as needed, yet still fit into an optimized long-range plan. c), Organization of the planning, engineering, and construction process with short lead times for implementation. Given that a long-range master plan exists for an area, the key to success is a short start-up and lead time for engineering of the details and project implementation, once development begins.

Fig. 36Load grows as developing parcels of land. As a region fills in with load, individual parcels develop very quickly, but often leave vacant areas between them. The utility may have to build a majority of the primary feeder lines that kill de needed eventually, long before a majority of the growth has developed.

Such expansion is difficult to accomplish economically: feeders must be extended over much of this area early in the 12-year period, so the utility can serve the widely scattered pockets of high load density. Great capacity is not needed at that time, because the overall load is not high. However, a good portion of all the routes eventually needed is required

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REFERENCES
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Power Distribution EngineeringFundamentals and Applications, by J. J. Burke, Marcel Dekker, New York, 1994. Trends in Distribution Reliability, by J. J Burke, ABB Electric systems Technology Institute, Raleigh, NC 1997. Urban Distribution Load Forecasting, final report on project 079D 186, Canadian Electric Association, 1982. Research into Load Forecasting and Distribution Planning, report EL1198, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, 1979. DSM: Transmission and Distribution Impacts, Volumes 1 and 2, Report CU-6924, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, Aug. 1990. Tutorial on Distribution Planning, by M. V. Engel et al., editors, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, New York, 1992. Edge City, by J. L. Garreau, Doubleday, New York, 199 1. Computer Speeds Accurate Load Forecast at APS, by A. Lazzari, Electric Light and Power, Feb. 1965, pp. 3 l-40. Model of Metropolis, by I. S. Lowry, Rand Corp., Santa Monica, 1964. Sensitivity Analysis of Small Area Load Forecasting Models, by J. R. Meinke, in Proceedings of the 10th Annual Pittsburgh Modeling and Simulation Conference, University of Pittsburgh, April 1979. Electrical Loads Can Be Forecasted for Distribution Planning, by E. E. Menge et al., in Proceedings of the American Power Conference, Chicago, University of Illinois, 1977 Computer Model Offers More Improved Load Forecasting, by W. G. Scott, Energy International, September 1974, p. 18. Load Forecasting Data and Database Development for Distribution Planning, by H. N. Tram et al., IEEE Trans. on Power Apparatus and Systems, November 1983, p. 3660. Load Forecasting for Distribution Planning - Error and Impact on Design, by H. L. Willis, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, March 1983, p. 675. 15. 16. 17. Spatial Electric Load Forecasting, by H. L. Willis, Marcel Dekker, New York, 1996. Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, by H. L. Willis, Marcel Dekker, New York, 1997. Some Unique Signal Processing Applications in Power Systems Analysis, by H. L. Willis and J. Aanstoos, IEEE Transactions on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing December 1979, p. 685. Spatial Load Forecasting - A Tutorial Review, by H. L. Willis and J. E. D. Northcote-Green Proceedings of the IEEE, February 1983, p. 232. Comparison of Fourteen Distribution Load Forecasting Methods, by H. L. Willis and J. E. D. Northcote-Green, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, June 1984, p. 1190. Introduction to Integrated Resource T&D Planning, by H. L. Willis and G. B. Rackliffe, ABB Guidebooks, ABB Power T&D Company, Raleigh, 1994. Some Aspects of Sampling Load Curves on Distribution Systems, by H. L. Willis, T. D. Vismor, and R. W. Powell, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, November 1985, p. 3221. A Cluster-based V.A.I. Method for Distribution Load Forecasting, by H. L. Willis and H. N. Tram, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, September 1983, p. 8 18. Spatial Electric Load Forecasting by H. L. Willis, M. V. Engel, and M. J. Buri, IEEE Computer Applications in Power, April 1995. Forecasting Electric Demands of Distribution System Planning in Rural and Sparsely Populated Regions, by H. L. Willis, G. B. Rackliffe, and H. N. Tram, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, November 1995. Short Range Load Forecasting for Distribution System Planning - An Improved Method for Extrapolating Feeder Load Growth, by H. L. Willis, G. B. Rackliffe, and H. N. Tram, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, August 1992.

18. 19.

20.

21.

22.

11.

23. 24.

12. 13.

25.

14.