Australian Banking Sector Outlook: Ratings Resilience Anticipated For 2014

Primary Credit Analyst: Gavin J Gunning, Melbourne (61) 3-9631-2092; gavin.gunning@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contacts: Nico N DeLange, Sydney (61) 2-9255-9887; nico.delange@standardandpoors.com Peter Sikora, Melbourne (61) 3-9631-2094; peter.sikora@standardandpoors.com Sharad Jain, Melbourne (61) 3-9631-2077; sharad.jain@standardandpoors.com Ryan Tsang, CFA, Hong Kong (852) 2533-3532; ryan.tsang@standardandpoors.com Ritesh Maheshwari, Singapore (65) 6239-6308; ritesh.maheshwari@standardandpoors.com Sovereign Analyst: Craig R Michaels, Melbourne (61) 3-9631-2082; craig.michaels@standardandpoors.com

Table Of Contents
Downside Risks To Australian Bank Ratings Are Plausible But Lower Probability Australian Banks Are Well Placed To Contend With Potentially Higher Risks Criteria and Related Research

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Australian Banking Sector Outlook: Ratings Resilience Anticipated For 2014

Credit ratings in the Australian banking sector have remained strong and extraordinarily stable by global standards in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, which began over five years ago. In our view, we anticipate a continuation of this trend throughout 2014. We believe that Australia is currently one of the five least-risky banking systems of the 86 that have Standard & Poor's banking industry country risk assessments (see chart 1); and that our most likely scenario for 2014 is that it will be a year of continuing investment-grade ratings resilience. Of 29 publicly rated financial institutions in Australia at Feb. 11, 2014, the rating outlooks on 26 were stable (with two on positive outlook and one on negative outlook). Throughout 2014, we currently anticipate the majority of ratings and outlooks remaining unchanged. Barely into the second month of the year, the signs are that profitability in the Australian major bank sector will be strong by international standards during calendar 2014. On Feb. 11, 2014, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) announced in its trading update that unaudited cash profit for fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 31, 2013, was up 13% on the same period in the prior year. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) reported today, Feb. 12, 2014, that its cash net profit after tax for its fiscal half year ended Dec. 31, 2013, was up 14% on the prior comparative period. While these results are consistent with our strong ratings on these banks, we will be making assessments of continuing rating congruence during 2014 against a broader set of business and financial rating factors, including those for asset quality, capital, and funding and liquidity. We also note that while Macquarie Group Ltd.'s (MGL) capital-market-facing businesses continued to contend with difficult trading conditions during its fiscal 2014 third quarter ended Dec. 31, 2013 (as it announced in its operational briefing on Feb. 11, 2014), our ratings and outlook on MGL and its main banking subsidiary Macquarie Bank Ltd. (MBL) remain unchanged. OVERVIEW Our outlook for the Australian banking industry in 2014 is stable. Our most likely scenario for 2014 is that most ratings and outlooks will remain unchanged. We believe that risks to Australian bank ratings--even if lower probability--remain on the downside. To retain confidence at current rating levels, banks might have to navigate a variety of risks that could cause negative ratings momentum. These risks could include a potential China hard landing, re-intensification of euro stresses, and domestic-property sector risks. The potential impact (positive and negative) on ratings from regulatory developments during 2014 could be more pronounced than in prior years. Australian banks are generally well placed to contend with higher risks, should they emerge, as they are highly profitable and well-capitalized by international standards, and have very good asset quality. Funding and liquidity metrics, however, generally compare less favorably, by international standards. We believe that the prospects for widespread rating upgrades in 2014 are low.

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Australian Banking Sector Outlook: Ratings Resilience Anticipated For 2014

Downside Risks To Australian Bank Ratings Are Plausible But Lower Probability
While our most likely scenario for 2014 is that Australian bank ratings will remain stable, we nonetheless envisage a range of potential negative scenarios that could hurt Australian bank ratings. Our current view, however, is that there is less than a one-in-three possibility of one or any combination of these potential negative scenarios translating into extensive rating downgrades.

Domestic economic slowdown

We believe that the impact of an Australian economic slowdown during 2014 that is materially worse than our current downside expectations--that is, one that would cause GDP to grow at less than half our 2.6% 2014 baseline scenario--is an intermediate (although low probability) risk for the banking industry. However, we believe that should economic conditions during 2014 unfold either in line with our current baseline scenario (GDP 2.6%) or our downside scenario (GDP 2.2%), there would not be a material negative impact on Australian bank credit ratings. More generally, we retain our belief that economic and industry risks most likely to cause negative ratings momentum include those either directly or indirectly associated with Australia's economic imbalances and system-wide funding challenges, in particular Australia's high external debt and relative dependence on external borrowings. We continue to believe that conditions could be challenging during 2014 for industries affected by the still-high Australian dollar (by historical standards) and/or undergoing major structural change. While a further relaxation of official domestic interest rates during 2013 has helped take pressure off the Australian dollar, we believe it has contributed to a more buoyant domestic property sector. Our base case outlook, however, is that potential house price increases during 2014 are likely to be digestible in the context of our current economic risk assessment and ratings.

China hard landing

We retain our view that an economic hard landing in China could cause many Australian financial institutions to be downgraded. Under a China hard landing scenario we envisage that China GDP would decrease to 5%, which we expect would have significant negative spillover effects for the Australian economy and banking sector. We currently believe, however, that the prospect of such a scenario unfolding is low. By contrast, we believe that a soft or medium China landing would likely have a no-or-low impact on Australian financial institution ratings.

Euro zone risks or other negative international developments

A re-intensification of euro zone or other negative international risks could result in negative rating consequences. A prolonged euro downturn would likely have negative macroeconomic consequences for Australia--both directly and indirectly (via the likely negative economic effects on China and other of Australia's major trading partners). Further, if euro zone or other international stresses were to cause dislocation in global funding markets, it would likely result in higher wholesale funding costs for Australian banks and under more severe conditions could disrupt orderly access to offshore capital upon which the Australian banking industry partly depends to supplement domestic deposit and wholesale funding sources.

Significant, unanticipated property price drop

Australian banks' relatively high exposure to residential mortgages is a natural red flag and key risk factor; we note that a price decrease of 20%-30%--even though we believe this is a low probability scenario--would be very significant and

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Australian Banking Sector Outlook: Ratings Resilience Anticipated For 2014

inevitably hurt bank asset quality. Furthermore, a 20%-30% property correction would likely be accompanied by a range of other negative economic developments (such as significantly higher unemployment), which in combination would be likely to manifest negatively on bank credit quality. Lessening our concerns, to an extent are a range of counterbalancing considerations, which include: Our belief that underlying housing demand (relative to supply) is likely to persist medium- to long term and result in a floor on any price drop which is likely to be temporary; High owner home equity across the banking industry; Generally prudent industry lending standards for housing; Strong prudential regulation and supervision of the industry; The cushioning effect on bank losses because of mortgage insurance on new high LVR loans; Average Australian house prices increased during 2013, which would partly absorb losses associated with a significant fall in house prices in 2014; and Bank balance sheets, profitability, and capital are currently in good shape to absorb inevitably higher losses from a significant, unanticipated price shock.

Regulatory developments
Recent and potential upcoming regulatory developments will continue to be assessed for congruence with current bank ratings, noting that the effects could be positive, negative, or neutral (depending upon the regulatory development under consideration). We believe that announcements in December 2013 by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) concerning domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs) are likely to result in incrementally higher capital in the Australian major bank sector, noting that the four Australian major banks were progressively building capital in any case in advance of this announcement. We believe that higher capitalization may not, by itself, result in rating upgrades for these banks, although (at a minimum) is likely to have a solidifying effect on ratings at current levels. Conversely, the potential move by the Australian government toward an alternate resolution regime being one that embraces a concept of senior creditor bail-in--which we believe is by no means a foregone conclusion and may not be imminent because of other regulatory developments that are likely to be more proximate and higher priority--could sit uncomfortably with Standard & Poor's current "highly supportive" assessment of the Australian government toward the domestic banking sector. This could result in us changing our views concerning government support, which, in turn, could be accompanied by downgrades of "systemically important" Australian banks. We will analyse the potential effects of the conglomerates policy on an institution-by-institution basis.

Sovereign credit-worthiness dependency for systemically-important Australian financial institutions

We note that a one-notch lowering of the issuer credit rating of the four Australian major banks to 'A+' from 'AA-', all other rating factors remaining equal and unchanged, would occur if our local currency issuer credit ratings on The Commonwealth of Australia were lowered to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. This concurrent rating action on the banks would reflect our view that the government's repayment capacity would be slightly lower (but still extremely strong) at the 'AA+' rating level in the unlikely event that it was required to provide extraordinary support to systemically important banks. Considering our rating outlook on The Commonwealth of Australia is stable, however, we currently believe this potential rating scenario is unlikely.

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Australian Banking Sector Outlook: Ratings Resilience Anticipated For 2014

Australian Banks Are Well Placed To Contend With Potentially Higher Risks
While we view the economic risk trend for Australia for 2014 as it affects the banking sector as negative, we believe that widespread negative ratings momentum is a less-likely scenario, absent potential downside risks intensifying and transforming into higher probability scenarios. An intensification of economic risks would dampen risk-adjusted bank capital ratios across the industry, although our current view is that few if any rating downgrades would result. We believe that the financial profiles of Australian banks will remain sound during 2014 and broadly consistent with current ratings and outlooks. Ratings confidence going into 2014 is afforded by Australian bank asset quality, which

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Australian Banking Sector Outlook: Ratings Resilience Anticipated For 2014

compares favorably by international standards. This is indicated by the average ratio of gross non-performing assets to customer loans of 1.33% (at Sept. 30, 2013) for the four Australian major banks. We expect above-average asset quality will persist during 2014. Capitalization also compares more favorably by international standards (see chart 2; which includes the four Australian major banks) with the Australian banking industry also being highly profitable, by international standards. The strong internal capital generation capacity of most Australian banks, which is underpinned by strong profitability as well as high dividend-payout ratios that can be trimmed at times when more capital is required, gives us further confidence at current rating levels. We retain our view that funding and liquidity are factors of higher sensitivity for the Australian banking industry, although our base case scenario for 2014 is that ratings are less likely to be negatively affected by funding or liquidity considerations. We note, however, that funding and liquidity quantitative metrics for the Australian major banks compare less favorably by international standards, hence it will be important for us to gain continuing comfort from qualitative factors that support current rating assessments in particular, those associated with implicit and explicit government support. While we believe that funding and liquidity developments over recent years have been positive and have caused a steady improvement in quantitative metrics--including the transition by Australian banks to improved deposit levels, longer-tenor wholesale funding, lesser reliance on short-term funding, expansion into new funding markets and investor pools (such as covered bonds), and pre-funding of wholesale commitments--we retain our view that the Australian banking industry remains somewhat more exposed to funding and liquidity risks compared with some other highly-rated systems. Further, we note that the recent low-growth environment has been conducive to these improving trends; we will derive further ratings comfort if these positive trends persist in more buoyant times. While it does not represent our current base case we note that a deterioration in funding and liquidity trends or in the performance of individual banks or the peer group as a whole compared with international trends and comparisons could result in negative ratings momentum. Concerning funding and liquidity, 2014 will be important for the Australian banking industry as it transitions Basel III liquidity rules, effective Jan. 1, 2015. To enable banks to meet Basel III liquidity standards, the Reserve Bank of Australia will make available a committed liquidity facility (CLF) beginning January 2015. To retain confidence in bank ratings at their current levels, we expect that Australian banks will transition to Basel III liquidity standards in a seamless manner, and (more importantly) that at an indeterminate point of time in the future if the CLF were ever to be tested under stressful market conditions that it would operate fully as intended and in the same way as would do a portfolio of high-quality liquid assets. We note that we do not anticipate the industry experiencing difficulties transitioning to the CLF, and we expect that the transition will be relatively seamless, as was the case when the industry transitioned to Basel III capital rules (which became effective in Australia on Jan. 1, 2013). Finally, we note that if the stand-alone credit profiles (SACPs) of the Australian major banks were lowered to by one notch to 'a+' from 'a' (or alternately raised by one notch to 'a+' from 'a') that this would not cause us to change our current 'AA-' issuer credit ratings on the banks; all current rating factors remaining equal and unchanged. Our currently ratings construction envisages that fluctuation of the major banks' SACPs could occur anywhere in the 'a-' to 'a+' range for them to be rated 'AA-'.

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Australian Banking Sector Outlook: Ratings Resilience Anticipated For 2014

Chart 2

Table 1

Key Indicators Of Selected Australia Banks

Gross Net nonperforming nonperforming assets/customer assets/customer Tier 1 Total loans + other real loans + other real capital ratio loans/customer estate owned (%) estate owned (%) (%) deposits (%) 2013 A N.A. 10.4 2012 A 9.1 10.8

Issuer rating

SACP

Return on average assets (%) 2013 A 2012 A 0.4 0.9

(%) AMP Bank Ltd. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. Australian Central Credit Union Ltd. (Trading as People's Choice Credit Union) Bank of Queensland Ltd. A+/Stable/A-1 AA-/Stable/A-1+ bbb+ a

2013 A N.A. 1.3

2012 A 0.5 1.6

2013 A N.A. 0.4

2012 A 0.4 0.6

2013 A N.A. 128.8

2012 A 143.2 132.3

N.A. 0.9

BBB+/Stable/A-2

bbb+

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

14.8

14.5

122.2

121.1

A-/Stable/A-2

a-

0.4

(0.0)

1.9

2.5

1.0

1.3

10.0

9.5

147.3

155.2

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Australian Banking Sector Outlook: Ratings Resilience Anticipated For 2014

Table 1

Key Indicators Of Selected Australia Banks (cont.)

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd. Commonwealth Bank of Australia Credit Union Australia Ltd. Community CPS Australia Ltd. (Trading as Beyond Bank Australia) Cuscal Ltd. Defence Bank Ltd. Greater Building Society Ltd. HSBC Bank Australia Ltd. IMB Ltd. Macquarie Bank Ltd.* Macquarie Group Ltd.* mecu Ltd. (Trading as bankmecu) Members Equity Bank Pty Ltd. MyState Financial Ltd. National Australia Bank Ltd. Newcastle Permanent Building Society Ltd. Police Bank Ltd. QT Mutual Bank Ltd. Qantas Staff Credit Union Ltd. Rural Bank Ltd. Suncorp-Metway Ltd. Teachers Mutual Bank Ltd. The Rock Building Society Ltd. Westpac Banking Corp. Wide Bay Australia Ltd. A-/Stable/A-2 a0.6 0.4 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.3 9.3 8.4 119.9 120.0

AA-/Stable/A-1+ BBB+/Stable/A-2 BBB+/Stable/A-2

a bbb+ bbb+

1.1 0.6 0.6

1.0 0.6 0.8

1.2 0.6 0.7

1.4 0.7 0.7

0.4 0.6 0.7

0.5 0.7 0.6

10.2 14.7 15.4

10.0 14.7 15.7

139.5 130.9 107.1

141.9 129.2 105.6

A+/Stable/A-1 BBB+/Stable/A-2 BBB/Positive/A-2 A+/Stable/A-1 BBB/Positive/A-2 A/Stable/A-1 BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB+/Stable/A-2

a bbb+ bbb bbb bbb bbb+ bbb+ bbb+

0.3 0.7 0.6 N.A. 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9

0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0

0.0 0.0 0.2 N.A. 0.3 N.A. N.A. 0.8

0.0 0.1 0.2 1.6 0.6 2.3 2.5 0.6

N/A 0.0 0.1 N.A. 0.2 N.A. N.A. 0.8

N/A 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.5

27.9 14.7 16.2 N.A. 13.9 10.9 N/A 19.8

26.7 15.3 15.6 8.9 13.0 10.8 N/A 18.5

152.5 85.4 100.2 N.A. 125.9 126.6 129.1 88.5

189.5 88.5 103.2 88.9 121.1 121.3 125.7 89.5

BBB+/Stable/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2 AA-/Stable/A-1+ BBB+/Stable/A-2

bbb+ bbb a bbb+

0.3 0.9 0.7 0.5

0.1 0.9 0.5 0.5

0.5 0.2 1.7 0.1

0.5 0.6 1.8 0.1

0.4 0.2 0.9 0.1

0.4 0.6 1.0 0.1

10.8 13.1 10.4 18.9

12.1 N.A. 10.3 19.1

184.0 122.6 142.2 115.1

198.6 122.0 147.1 115.2

BBB+/Stable/A-2 BBB+/Stable/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2 A+/Stable/A-1 BBB+/Stable/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2 AA-/Stable/A-1+ BBB/Negative/A-2

bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ bbba bbb

0.8 0.6 0.6 1.1 (0.6) 0.7 0.0 1.0 0.1

0.9 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.6 (0.2) 0.9 0.7

0.4 0.2 0.2 8.0 2.0 0.4 0.3 1.1 1.5

0.6 0.4 0.2 8.0 5.1 0.4 0.2 1.4 0.6

0.2 0.2 0.1 6.7 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.4

0.4 0.4 0.1 6.9 4.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6

18.0 18.1 15.4 10.7 9.2 15.3 13.3 10.7 11.2

19.1 17.4 15.8 9.7 9.6 14.9 N.A. 10.3 11.2

91.1 97.4 88.3 112.6 151.8 95.3 157.4 141.7 137.8

89.5 93.0 84.3 111.6 159.9 91.4 178.8 149.9 142.1

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Australian Banking Sector Outlook: Ratings Resilience Anticipated For 2014

Table 1

Key Indicators Of Selected Australia Banks (cont.)

*Year 2013 is for the six months ended Sept. 30, 2013, and year 2012 is for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2013. N/A Not applicable. N.A. Not available.

Table 2

Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment

Country Government support Economic risk factors and descriptors Economic risk Economic resilience Economic imbalances Credit risk in the economy 2 Very low risk Intermediate risk Low risk Australia BICRA group Group 2 a-

Highly Supportive Anchor rating Industry risk factors and descriptors Industry risk Institutional framework Competitive dynamics Systemwide funding

2 Very low risk Very low risk Intermediate risk

Criteria and Related Research

Related Criteria:
Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011; Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Bank Hybrid Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 1, 2011 Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010 Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And Assumptions, July 17, 2013

Related Research
Credit Conditions: Asia-Pacific Growth Is Mostly Stable, But Some Lagging Credit Risks Remain For 2014, Dec. 10, 2013. Resolution Plans For Global Banks May Eliminate Government Support For Some, But Progress Is Varied, Dec. 4, 2013. A China Hard Landing Would Risk Downgrades For Australias Financial Institutions Ratings, Aug. 11, 2013. The Top 100 Rated Banks: The Consensus About Capital Is Unraveling, Sept. 30, 2013; Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Update: January 2014, Jan. 8, 2014.
Standard & Poor's (Australia) Pty. Ltd. holds Australian financial services licence number 337565 under the Corporations Act 2001. Standard & Poor's credit ratings and related research are not intended for and must not be distributed to any person in Australia other than a wholesale client (as defined in Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act).

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